November 5, 2025 • 7 mins
Should the previous political splits from New York hold, based on my projections, the year one influence of the Mamdani Effect in Florida would mean approximately:
- +18,000 Republicans
- +11,600 NPAs
- +9,600 Democrats
- +800 Minor Party
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
You have questions. Brian has answers. It's time for today's
Q and A of today. This is the Brian Mud Show.
Today's QNA the Mom Dommie effect on Floridas's politics. This
is brought to you by Melissa Ashes. Check more collections.
Each day a feature a listener question that is sent
by one of these methods. You may email me Brian
Mud at iHeartMedia dot com. You may also hit me
(00:26):
up on social at Brian Mud Radio and we would
love it if you would love us. Inside of the
iHeartRadio app, just go into it. Make w jn No
or Vero Patriot your number one preset than the Brian
Mudshow Podcast your number two preset. While you're in there,
you'll see a little microphone button, see a tapic. You
may laid out a message right there, maybe a topic
or question for a future Q and A. Today's note this, Brian,
(00:50):
there are many Republicans left in NYC. If Mom Donnie wins,
there's bound to be Democrats Quomo voters coming here too. Okay,
So will this be the time that we ended up
getting lives that moved to Florida? So as we know,
Democratic socialist Zoorn Mamdani has one will be the next
(01:12):
mayor of New York City, and with the win, what's
been coined the Mamdamie effect is likely to be in
full effect in Florida right away. As my recent analysis showed,
those who've relocated from New York State to Florida since
twenty twenty, forty percent have been from New York City specifically.
In total, there approximately one hundred and forty five thousand
(01:34):
residents of New York City that have relocated to Florida
this decade so far, and so that kind of gives
you an idea of how Florida has continued to move
firmly to the right, while a large influx of people
specifically from New York City have been part of that.
So to dive into that line of thinking a bit
(01:55):
further introduced to today's note, you're almost certainly correct that
mam Donni motivated migration from New York City to Florida
will include some, if you want to call them, Cuomo
Democrats as well. In fact, I spoke of this dynamic
in my mom Dami Effect story a few weeks ago
by saying, if you weren't motivated to move out of
New York City due to politics previously, but you could
(02:16):
potentially be now. There's a good chance a couple of
factors apply. One work considerations that kept you there, and
then two otherwise probably a little bit left leaning in
high income those would be the other people that would
be like, okay, we're we're outing now. So the bottom
line is that there just aren't many right leaning voters
(02:37):
in New York City left. New York City's population is
seven hundred thousand fewer people today compared to five years ago,
and the people left are overwhelmingly leftists, but not all.
In last year's presidential election, President Trump won seven hundred
and eighty six thousand votes in New York City. So
based on levels of expressed interest to date, it appears
(02:57):
it's likely that we would see an approximate fifty percent
increase in relocations above the current trend. Just the folks
should be gradually moving here from New York City anyway,
leading to what I have pegged at and estimated forty
thousand additional relocations from New York City to Florida within
the first year. In other words, the Mam Damie effects
(03:18):
appears to be a real phenomenon, but not quite to
the level of COVID related migration trends. And one of
the big reasons for this is the wild card in
the conversation business considerations. The reason why you had so
much so quickly once the COVID lockdown and COVID the
lockdowns ended was people could remote work so they could
(03:42):
go where they wanted. You had people that just wanted
out of there, that weren't worried about work considerations, and
then you had the massive business relocations hence what became
known as Wall Street South around here. So have the
firms that were serious about lead in New York City
already done it? That's the bigger question mark for me
(04:04):
in this or is there another business exodus in the making.
If there is, then you could have the potential for
a COVID styled mass migration to occur. So it remains
to be seen. That's why I'm going to be watching today.
I actually have SEEINGBC on right now, and I'm looking
for some of the indications from business leaders about whether
(04:27):
they're going to look to relocate to our state or
Texas whatever, so because that is also something that could
influence the political mix of who comes here as well.
If you've got to move for work considerations that would
probably bring a more diverse political mix of people to
(04:49):
our area. With as quickly as Florida move from being
a swing state to a solidly read state, it might
have felt like just about everybody relocating here in recent
years have been Republicans. But that, of course hasn't been
the case. And actually we have a pretty precise idea
of exactly what that has looked like. In an April
study entitled Swung State, An Examination of Florida's Political Transformation,
(05:13):
is actually presented as an honors thesis by a graduate
student at Brandis University. It's one hundred and sixty seven
page thesis is really well done. The study illustrates the
specific political makeup of net migration over the prior five years.
And here's what we found. What percentage of those who
have relocated to Florida over the past five years have
(05:36):
been Republicans or at least those that have registered as
Republicans once they got here. The survey says forty five
percent forty five percent. Twenty nine percent of those who've
relocated here have registered as non party affiliated voters, twenty
four percent have registered as Democrats. With the remaining two
(06:00):
two percent minor party affiliations. Okay, so it hasn't been
a slam donk. It's not like Democrats don't move here, right,
Almost a quarter of everybody who has has registered as
a Democrat, but Republicans have relocated to the state at
close to a two to one margin twenty one percent
more by way of share. So obviously we aren't going
(06:23):
to know what the political makeup of mam Donni inspired
relocations will be until we get there. However, it is
reasonable to assume that unbalanced more Republicans and Democrats would
be the ones making the move. After all, how many
Cuomo Democrats so to speak, want to move to the
land of DeSantis and Trump. Cuomo Democrats concerned about mom
(06:44):
Donnie probably be more likely to relocate just outside of
the city, like in Westchester, Connecticut something like that. So
should the previous political splits from New York hold. Based
on my projections, the year one influence of the Mandami
effect in Florida would look like that eighteen thousand additional
registered Republicans, eleven thousand, six hundred additional registered MBAs, nine thousand,
(07:09):
six hundred additional Democrats, with eight hundred additional minor party
affiliated voters. That is my first go at this, so
expect real estate agents to be busy throughout the holiday
season this year because it is likely the existing political
trends will continue with those motivated to move to our
state based on New York City's mayoral election, So this
(07:31):
means more business relocations as well. That's again the big
thing that I'm looking for here and more net Republicans
You have questions. Brian has answers. It's time for today's
Q and A of today. This is the Brian Mud Show.
Today's QNA the Mom Dommie effect on Floridas's politics. This
is brought to you by Melissa Ashes. Check more collections.
Each day a feature a listener question that is sent
by one of these methods. You may email me Brian
Mud at iHeartMedia dot com. You may also hit me
(00:26):
up on social at Brian Mud Radio and we would
love it if you would love us. Inside of the
iHeartRadio app, just go into it. Make w jn No
or Vero Patriot your number one preset than the Brian
Mudshow Podcast your number two preset. While you're in there,
you'll see a little microphone button, see a tapic. You
may laid out a message right there, maybe a topic
or question for a future Q and A. Today's note this, Brian,
(00:50):
there are many Republicans left in NYC. If Mom Donnie wins,
there's bound to be Democrats Quomo voters coming here too. Okay,
So will this be the time that we ended up
getting lives that moved to Florida? So as we know,
Democratic socialist Zoorn Mamdani has one will be the next
(01:12):
mayor of New York City, and with the win, what's
been coined the Mamdamie effect is likely to be in
full effect in Florida right away. As my recent analysis showed,
those who've relocated from New York State to Florida since
twenty twenty, forty percent have been from New York City specifically.
In total, there approximately one hundred and forty five thousand
(01:34):
residents of New York City that have relocated to Florida
this decade so far, and so that kind of gives
you an idea of how Florida has continued to move
firmly to the right, while a large influx of people
specifically from New York City have been part of that.
So to dive into that line of thinking a bit
(01:55):
further introduced to today's note, you're almost certainly correct that
mam Donni motivated migration from New York City to Florida
will include some, if you want to call them, Cuomo
Democrats as well. In fact, I spoke of this dynamic
in my mom Dami Effect story a few weeks ago
by saying, if you weren't motivated to move out of
New York City due to politics previously, but you could
(02:16):
potentially be now. There's a good chance a couple of
factors apply. One work considerations that kept you there, and
then two otherwise probably a little bit left leaning in
high income those would be the other people that would
be like, okay, we're we're outing now. So the bottom
line is that there just aren't many right leaning voters
(02:37):
in New York City left. New York City's population is
seven hundred thousand fewer people today compared to five years ago,
and the people left are overwhelmingly leftists, but not all.
In last year's presidential election, President Trump won seven hundred
and eighty six thousand votes in New York City. So
based on levels of expressed interest to date, it appears
(02:57):
it's likely that we would see an approximate fifty percent
increase in relocations above the current trend. Just the folks
should be gradually moving here from New York City anyway,
leading to what I have pegged at and estimated forty
thousand additional relocations from New York City to Florida within
the first year. In other words, the Mam Damie effects
(03:18):
appears to be a real phenomenon, but not quite to
the level of COVID related migration trends. And one of
the big reasons for this is the wild card in
the conversation business considerations. The reason why you had so
much so quickly once the COVID lockdown and COVID the
lockdowns ended was people could remote work so they could
(03:42):
go where they wanted. You had people that just wanted
out of there, that weren't worried about work considerations, and
then you had the massive business relocations hence what became
known as Wall Street South around here. So have the
firms that were serious about lead in New York City
already done it? That's the bigger question mark for me
(04:04):
in this or is there another business exodus in the making.
If there is, then you could have the potential for
a COVID styled mass migration to occur. So it remains
to be seen. That's why I'm going to be watching today.
I actually have SEEINGBC on right now, and I'm looking
for some of the indications from business leaders about whether
(04:27):
they're going to look to relocate to our state or
Texas whatever, so because that is also something that could
influence the political mix of who comes here as well.
If you've got to move for work considerations that would
probably bring a more diverse political mix of people to
(04:49):
our area. With as quickly as Florida move from being
a swing state to a solidly read state, it might
have felt like just about everybody relocating here in recent
years have been Republicans. But that, of course hasn't been
the case. And actually we have a pretty precise idea
of exactly what that has looked like. In an April
study entitled Swung State, An Examination of Florida's Political Transformation,
(05:13):
is actually presented as an honors thesis by a graduate
student at Brandis University. It's one hundred and sixty seven
page thesis is really well done. The study illustrates the
specific political makeup of net migration over the prior five years.
And here's what we found. What percentage of those who
have relocated to Florida over the past five years have
(05:36):
been Republicans or at least those that have registered as
Republicans once they got here. The survey says forty five
percent forty five percent. Twenty nine percent of those who've
relocated here have registered as non party affiliated voters, twenty
four percent have registered as Democrats. With the remaining two
(06:00):
two percent minor party affiliations. Okay, so it hasn't been
a slam donk. It's not like Democrats don't move here, right,
Almost a quarter of everybody who has has registered as
a Democrat, but Republicans have relocated to the state at
close to a two to one margin twenty one percent
more by way of share. So obviously we aren't going
(06:23):
to know what the political makeup of mam Donni inspired
relocations will be until we get there. However, it is
reasonable to assume that unbalanced more Republicans and Democrats would
be the ones making the move. After all, how many
Cuomo Democrats so to speak, want to move to the
land of DeSantis and Trump. Cuomo Democrats concerned about mom
(06:44):
Donnie probably be more likely to relocate just outside of
the city, like in Westchester, Connecticut something like that. So
should the previous political splits from New York hold. Based
on my projections, the year one influence of the Mandami
effect in Florida would look like that eighteen thousand additional
registered Republicans, eleven thousand, six hundred additional registered MBAs, nine thousand,
(07:09):
six hundred additional Democrats, with eight hundred additional minor party
affiliated voters. That is my first go at this, so
expect real estate agents to be busy throughout the holiday
season this year because it is likely the existing political
trends will continue with those motivated to move to our
state based on New York City's mayoral election, So this
(07:31):
means more business relocations as well. That's again the big
thing that I'm looking for here and more net Republicans
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