Q&A of the Day – Tuesday’s Impact on the Future of the Democrat Party

To further put this into perspective, consider this. What was the last year that the state of Virigina (which elects a new governor every four years because they can’t serve consecutive terms) elected a governor of the same party as a newly elected president?  The answer is 1969. It hasn’t happened in 56 years...and counting.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
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I Tuesday's impact on the future of the Democrat Party.
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(00:25):
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like this, Brian.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
I've been seeing the same thing you've been seeing all
morning about how this is all about a referendum on
Trump in these elections, and I saw, I see exactly
what you see. This isn't This is quite a deflection
from the civil war happening within the Democratic Party between
the socialists, Islamists and the traditional Democrats. It'd be funny

(01:07):
if it were so sad on how it's going to
hurt so many people.

Speaker 1 (01:10):
Yeah, you're right on point. And as I've read, watched,
and listened to what I believe to be massive overreactions
on both sides of the aisle following Tuesday's elections, I
think it's worth drilling down into this topic for Today's
Q and A. There is a reason in my top
three takeaways on Tuesday, my third takeaway was, and Joel

(01:34):
remembered straight away he remember Tuesday night as those results
were rolling in that it was yeah, because they started
before the results came in. Don't buy the narrative. That's right,
don't buy it. And the reason I said that is
that Republicans were set to have a really bad day
and there would be overreactions that were going to end

(01:56):
up happening all over the place. And the reason was
because it was always going to be a good day
for Democrats and bad day for Republicans. You had the
implications behind Montdamie's win California's Prop fifty win. I elaborated
on those points in my takeaways yesterday when I said,

(02:18):
you don't play with fire. It's true in your house,
it's true politically, but the Democrat Party has done just that,
and now they're set to be burned. The key for
the rest of us will be damage control for our country. No,
Abigail Spanberger, an uninspired generic Democrat who will be the
next governor of Virginia, is not the future of the party.

(02:38):
Nor will Big Mic Cheryl Mikey Cheryl. Yeah, Okay, yeah,
Big Mike Cheryl, another wholly unimpressive generic Democrat who will
be the next governor of New Jersey not the future
of the party. And the other Big Mic isn't either,

(02:59):
by the way. So I followed that train of thought
up by pointing out that the Schumer wing of the
Democrat Party would describe the two milt toasts unimpressive white
female governors as moderates, which they're not, and then attempt
to take a stand on running similar candidates across the
country going forward. Meanwhile, the AOC Mom Donnie winging of

(03:20):
the party was celebrating while plotting the future completed takeover
of the party, and the related thought I shared was
this is that this is the Democrat version of what
Republicans went through after being routed in two thousand and eight,
which led to the insurgents and success, so the Tea Party,
which eventually coalesced into Donald Trump's success and taking down

(03:40):
the Republican establishment. What we're seeing play out is the
progressive's version of this. Newsom will likely prove to be
the Romney and then the politics of Mom, Donnie and
company will take over from there, meaning that I believe
Newsom is likely the twenty eight nominee for Democrats. I
believe by the way, his will repeat and he'll probably

(04:01):
lose to the Republican nominee, and that's going to be
interesting to see who is Quinn Bee, and then you're
going to have the full Commy takeover the Democrats by
twenty thirty two. That's when you really have to get
concerned nationally about what it looks like. Today's Q and
A picks up on this point, which is the most

(04:21):
important point. Democrats are now in a full fledged civil war.
It's one that is likely to become immediately clear with
how the partial government shut down is handled from here,
and we saw that yesterday. There was a movement yesterday.
In fact, if anything, Democrats were more rigid because the
AOC Momdami Insurgeon wing has already had influence over Chuck Schumer,

(04:42):
but even more so after the wins because they're taking
credit for it, and so they're saying, you got to
give us everything. They are demanding no compromise. They demand
the full COVID era Obamacare subsidies be made permanent, which
means ninety two percent subsidies on Obamacare plans and Perpose two,
and the elimination of their recently enacted Medicaid work requirements.

(05:06):
So those on the right, well, remember how these battles
played out for years between the establishment wing of the
Republican Party and the insurgent base of the Tea Party.
That wasn't until Trump arrived on the scene and then
just put it all to bed as he remade the
party in his image. It was a constant battle that

(05:26):
even included some politicians pretending to be something they weren't.
For example, remember when Paul Ryan for a time was
masquerading as the super conservative Tea Party guy. You're laughing,
you're laughing, Joel Hey and netted him Speaker of the House.
He was so good at playing that game. So yeah,
but this is what the Democrat Party is now in
store for. Many on the right are lamenting the losses

(05:52):
from Tuesday. But it doesn't make any sense, and I
mean any for two reasons. For two reasons. First, the
opposition party to the party in power in Washington, DC
almost always outperforms in the following year's elections, and for
that matter, in midterm election cycles too. You literally have

(06:12):
to go all the way back to nine to eleven
and the mid terms after nine to eleven to find
a time when this didn't happen. Okay, So it is
the cycle that the president's party does worse and the
subsequent elections. Now beyond that, the states with elections that

(06:39):
were closely watched, every one of them was a blue
state California with the Prop fifty Virginia, New Jersey, which
Kabla Harris carried comfortably. She didn't just squeak out wins there.
She won easily in both of those states. And this
is the thing that just I mean when people, especially
on the writer, go oh my gosh, oh my god,
hold on, I feel like shake people and going do

(07:00):
you have a brain in your head? Thing? For a minute,
consider this and again, if I did not put time
on the front end into analysis for these elections, because
then on an impact us beyond the people are moving
here from New York City thing. So if I had though,
this would have been front and center in the conversation
from day one of me covering these elections. Everything from

(07:24):
a point of political analysis starts with psychology, all of it.
And the psychology is beyond simple in this one. What
would it take for a base of voters who comfortably
voted for Tamala Harris last November to shun it around
and go, hey, you know what I want some Republicans?

(07:46):
Now we're talking psychology, maybe a really good psychiatrist and
new psychiatrists that good. It don't exist. Who is the person?
Where is this person that went yeah, I want Kamala
a year ago? But then on Tuesday it is going
to be And now's them Republicans. I mean, your nuts.

(08:11):
You are bat crap crazy nuts if you think that
a that person exists and two there are hundreds of
thousands of them exists existing in both of those states,
which is what you would need to have flipped the results.
The only chance you have, The only chance is simply
a turnout thing. The Democrat turnout is just so low

(08:33):
and Republicans good enough that you can just kind of
thread that needle through that door. It's the only chance
you can't win these kinds of elections if there's any
kind of even average turnout when somebody's voting for Kamala
Harris in that state by wide margins, as was the
case in Virginia and New Jersey. So everybody on the
right just get a grip and let those on the

(08:55):
left do whatever they're doing. It's a very basic concept.
It's a very basic concept. And so it's it's why
I framed things the way I did on Tuesday, because
I knew that there would be an element of this
that would be playing out now. To further put this
in perspective, Virginia in particular is the best example that

(09:16):
exists of this concept because they're the only state in
the Union where you cannot be a governor for two
consecutive terms. You are every governor is a one term governor.
And so every four years we have elections in Virginia
for governor, and that always follows a presidential election year.
And what year was the last year that the state

(09:37):
of Virginia elected a new governor that was in the
exact same party as a new president new president the
year before governor in the same party that following year.
How far back do you have to go to find
when that happened. The answer is nineteen sixty nine. That

(09:57):
is how much of an outlier would have had had
to have happened. That's how unusual this. It has not
happened in fifty six years. So everything that played out
to saves exactly as you would expect, and everything that
is playing out right now the Democrat Party is the
tip of the iceberg. That's the bigger story going forward.