October 2, 2025 • 8 mins
If the average person who needs work has it and is steadily earning more than the cost of living is increasing, it’s a good economy. If they aren’t able to achieve both of those things, it’s a bad economy.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Have a question or topic you want to have addressed,
Just ask you.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
This is the Brian Mud Show. Today's Q and A.
What's the definition of a good economy? What's the definition
of a good economy?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
And this is brought to you by listen ashes, check
mark collections. Each day I feature a listener question that
is sent by one of these methods. You may email
me Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com, hand me up
on social at Brian Mud Radio. May also use the
iHeartRadio talk back feature. We'd love it. If you'd love us,
just go into the app, make us your top preset.
(00:41):
While you're in there and look for a little microphone
button see a tap it. You may lay down a
message right there, maybe a top gre question for a
future qn A.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Today's note this at Brian Mud Radio.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Regarding the current economic state, we hear so many conflicting
narratives about what's happening with growth, inflation, and the job market.
Given your quote that there's only one side of facts,
what are the key indisputable economic metrics that you believe
provide the most accurate picture of where the US economy
actually stands today, and what do they tell us That's
(01:15):
an excellent question, I think, and some of where I'm
going with this ties into an important report we received yesterday,
the ADP Report box's Shinny Consola.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
The number of jobs created by private employers declined by
thirty two thousand in September. Payroll processing company ADP was
expected to report job creation of about fifty thousand. ADP's
chief economist Nila Richardson says the number of new claims
for unemployment benefits remain subdued, which suggests this is a
(01:48):
low or no hire, no fire economy, and you will
pay in September rows four and a half percent. In
a government shutdown, the monthly employment report is not released,
which makes the ADP report even more important to the
Federal Reserve, which is looking at a slowing job market
as it considers whether to lower interest rates.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Okay, so the answers if we're in a good economy
is ultimately in the eyes of each American, Right, It's
ultimately up to you to decide if the economy is
good from your perspective. But with that said, as we
look more broadly at what's playing out across the country,
there are a few economic data points that matter most.
(02:32):
In my view, the three most important are these the
unemployment rate, wage growth, and inflation rate. And that's not
to say that GDP growth and other related macroeconomic measures
aren't important. They are, but I'm going to illustrate why
perhaps not as important as to whether you're going to
(02:56):
end up benefiting from the economy. That's the key to
a quote unquote good economy, right, are you actually benefiting
from it? And so the bottom line from my perspective
is when the economy is producing enough job opportunities for
those who need work and whether the quality of life
(03:17):
of the average American is generally improving. If that's happening,
then I think we're in a good economy. So let's
go to the scorecard. The Biden presidency was a case
study and the importance of not just taking on like
a GDP growth, but inflation and wage growth. So we
had pretty decent economic growth during Biden's four years, in
(03:39):
large part because we had a big rebound from the
pandemic era and lockdowns.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
During that time.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
However, when you factor in an inflation an entirely different perspective.
So consider this the total GDP growth rate during Biden's
four years was nine and a quarter percent, And that's
not awesome across four years, but it's decent if you
knew nothing else you just saw. Yeah, okay, economic growth
up over nine percent of for four years, not bad.
(04:07):
But then you factor in the total inflation rate during
President Biden's four years that was twenty one percent. So
the average thing ended up costing you twenty one percent
more by the time Biden was done than when he started.
What was wage growth during that time? Wade growth was
(04:30):
nineteen point eight percent, right, So the impact of Biden
inflation was real and demonstrably.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
This is not hyperbole.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
The average American's life was worse after Biden's four years
than it was at the start of it.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
The average quality of.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Life declined during Biden's four years, with wage growth trailing
the inflation rate by one point two percent. So, for example,
let's compare that to the the first three years preceding
the pandemic for President Trump. I mean, everything in twenty
twenty was wonky is all get out because of the
(05:07):
lockdowns and everything else.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
But if you just take a look at normal.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
Times during Trump's presidency, the first three years, total GDP
growth was seven point seven percent. The total inflation rate
during those three years was six point two and the
total wage growth during that time was nine point four percent.
By the way, you noticed that in the three years
of Trump, wage growth higher than the GDP growth rate
(05:37):
was during Biden's four So that again as to why
wage growth rather than GDP is an important thing. So
demonstrably the average Americans quality of life improved during President
Trump's three non pandemic years, with wage growth having risen
by three point two percent above the rate of inflation.
(05:59):
On that note, canider this through the first nearly nine
months of the Trump administration. Total GDP growth one point
six percent, total inflation rate two percent, wage growth three
point eight percent. So already during the first three quarters
of a year of the Trump administration, wage growth has
(06:19):
outpaced inflation by one point eight percent. And there are
several factors weighing into that phenomenon. However, one of the
largest is the dynamic that I've highlighted with each of
the monthly jobs reports in recent months. We have one
point one million fewer foreign born workers amid a total
(06:41):
of two million deportations that have taken place through the
first nine months of the Trump administration. So effectively illegal
immigrants in the workforce. We're suppressing wages and taking job
opportunities from legal citizens. As that process has been reversing,
we've seen well above average wage growth occur for those
that are in the workforce. Now one of the challenges
going forward, and that's been building in recent years, preceding
(07:06):
the impact of AI in the workforce. And as was
mentioned in yesterday's ADP Private Sector Jobs Report, we saw
jobs lost in September. An AI continues to be a
growing concern and reason cited that as people are leaving
the workforce in many cases just not being replaced, and
(07:26):
AI is taking those roles. Now, with that said, on
the wage front, get this most recently the ADP Private
Sectory report. They are showing those in the workforce with
average wage gains a four and a half percent year
every year.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
So that is a good thing to see. That's exciting.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
So what effectively the data shows is a tale of
two economies right now, one that is good in getting
better for those in the workforce, while it's becoming more
challenging for those on the outside of the workforce looking in.
And so that's food for thought and why I think
those three factors GDP, inflation and wage growth are the
(08:07):
most important
Have a question or topic you want to have addressed,
Just ask you.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
This is the Brian Mud Show. Today's Q and A.
What's the definition of a good economy? What's the definition
of a good economy?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
And this is brought to you by listen ashes, check
mark collections. Each day I feature a listener question that
is sent by one of these methods. You may email
me Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com, hand me up
on social at Brian Mud Radio. May also use the
iHeartRadio talk back feature. We'd love it. If you'd love us,
just go into the app, make us your top preset.
(00:41):
While you're in there and look for a little microphone
button see a tap it. You may lay down a
message right there, maybe a top gre question for a
future qn A.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Today's note this at Brian Mud Radio.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Regarding the current economic state, we hear so many conflicting
narratives about what's happening with growth, inflation, and the job market.
Given your quote that there's only one side of facts,
what are the key indisputable economic metrics that you believe
provide the most accurate picture of where the US economy
actually stands today, and what do they tell us That's
(01:15):
an excellent question, I think, and some of where I'm
going with this ties into an important report we received yesterday,
the ADP Report box's Shinny Consola.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
The number of jobs created by private employers declined by
thirty two thousand in September. Payroll processing company ADP was
expected to report job creation of about fifty thousand. ADP's
chief economist Nila Richardson says the number of new claims
for unemployment benefits remain subdued, which suggests this is a
(01:48):
low or no hire, no fire economy, and you will
pay in September rows four and a half percent. In
a government shutdown, the monthly employment report is not released,
which makes the ADP report even more important to the
Federal Reserve, which is looking at a slowing job market
as it considers whether to lower interest rates.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Okay, so the answers if we're in a good economy
is ultimately in the eyes of each American, Right, It's
ultimately up to you to decide if the economy is
good from your perspective. But with that said, as we
look more broadly at what's playing out across the country,
there are a few economic data points that matter most.
(02:32):
In my view, the three most important are these the
unemployment rate, wage growth, and inflation rate. And that's not
to say that GDP growth and other related macroeconomic measures
aren't important. They are, but I'm going to illustrate why
perhaps not as important as to whether you're going to
(02:56):
end up benefiting from the economy. That's the key to
a quote unquote good economy, right, are you actually benefiting
from it? And so the bottom line from my perspective
is when the economy is producing enough job opportunities for
those who need work and whether the quality of life
(03:17):
of the average American is generally improving. If that's happening,
then I think we're in a good economy. So let's
go to the scorecard. The Biden presidency was a case
study and the importance of not just taking on like
a GDP growth, but inflation and wage growth. So we
had pretty decent economic growth during Biden's four years, in
(03:39):
large part because we had a big rebound from the
pandemic era and lockdowns.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
During that time.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
However, when you factor in an inflation an entirely different perspective.
So consider this the total GDP growth rate during Biden's
four years was nine and a quarter percent, And that's
not awesome across four years, but it's decent if you
knew nothing else you just saw. Yeah, okay, economic growth
up over nine percent of for four years, not bad.
(04:07):
But then you factor in the total inflation rate during
President Biden's four years that was twenty one percent. So
the average thing ended up costing you twenty one percent
more by the time Biden was done than when he started.
What was wage growth during that time? Wade growth was
(04:30):
nineteen point eight percent, right, So the impact of Biden
inflation was real and demonstrably.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
This is not hyperbole.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
The average American's life was worse after Biden's four years
than it was at the start of it.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
The average quality of.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Life declined during Biden's four years, with wage growth trailing
the inflation rate by one point two percent. So, for example,
let's compare that to the the first three years preceding
the pandemic for President Trump. I mean, everything in twenty
twenty was wonky is all get out because of the
(05:07):
lockdowns and everything else.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
But if you just take a look at normal.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
Times during Trump's presidency, the first three years, total GDP
growth was seven point seven percent. The total inflation rate
during those three years was six point two and the
total wage growth during that time was nine point four percent.
By the way, you noticed that in the three years
of Trump, wage growth higher than the GDP growth rate
(05:37):
was during Biden's four So that again as to why
wage growth rather than GDP is an important thing. So
demonstrably the average Americans quality of life improved during President
Trump's three non pandemic years, with wage growth having risen
by three point two percent above the rate of inflation.
(05:59):
On that note, canider this through the first nearly nine
months of the Trump administration. Total GDP growth one point
six percent, total inflation rate two percent, wage growth three
point eight percent. So already during the first three quarters
of a year of the Trump administration, wage growth has
(06:19):
outpaced inflation by one point eight percent. And there are
several factors weighing into that phenomenon. However, one of the
largest is the dynamic that I've highlighted with each of
the monthly jobs reports in recent months. We have one
point one million fewer foreign born workers amid a total
(06:41):
of two million deportations that have taken place through the
first nine months of the Trump administration. So effectively illegal
immigrants in the workforce. We're suppressing wages and taking job
opportunities from legal citizens. As that process has been reversing,
we've seen well above average wage growth occur for those
that are in the workforce. Now one of the challenges
going forward, and that's been building in recent years, preceding
(07:06):
the impact of AI in the workforce. And as was
mentioned in yesterday's ADP Private Sector Jobs Report, we saw
jobs lost in September. An AI continues to be a
growing concern and reason cited that as people are leaving
the workforce in many cases just not being replaced, and
(07:26):
AI is taking those roles. Now, with that said, on
the wage front, get this most recently the ADP Private
Sectory report. They are showing those in the workforce with
average wage gains a four and a half percent year
every year.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
So that is a good thing to see. That's exciting.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
So what effectively the data shows is a tale of
two economies right now, one that is good in getting
better for those in the workforce, while it's becoming more
challenging for those on the outside of the workforce looking in.
And so that's food for thought and why I think
those three factors GDP, inflation and wage growth are the
(08:07):
most important
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