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June 5, 2025 9 mins
China has had to say to Russia in an official statement about the use of nuclear force: A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.  
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Your questions, Brian's answers. It's time for today's Q and A.
Have today this is the Brian mud Show. Yeah, today's
Q and A. What are the odds of nuclear war?

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Nice? Light hearted Q and A. Today it's Joel shakes
his Happy Thursday. Hey, I might have a happy ending.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
To this for you.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
What do you think about that?

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Just the thought of it?

Speaker 2 (00:26):
All right? I get it. So let's walk through this
for a moment brought to you. As always, buy listen
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(00:47):
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(01:08):
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down the message right there, maybe for a future Q
and A just like this one.

Speaker 3 (01:18):
Good morning, Brian, this is Drive from Port Saint Lucy.
Got a quick question for you in regards to Ukraine
staking all those drones into Russia and blowing up the planes.
I really feel like Zelenski is really playing games with
nuclear war here. I think it's extremely dangerous and I

(01:41):
would like to know your take on that.

Speaker 2 (01:43):
Yeah, I appreciate the question. And as a child of
the eighties, I remember participating in the Cold War era
nuclear drills in school. Those were always fun. In my case,
we hid under our desks. What was it that you
did in your school, Joel.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
I honestly don't remember doing any of this.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
Oh so you got to avoid it, all right?

Speaker 1 (02:05):
Well, but but the but the hiding of the desk,
I mean, unless the desk are made of iron.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
Well, and that's not going to say you either, yes,
but more than wood, which they were probably made of,
right or plast they were they were They weren't plastic.
They have like the wood tops and all that. But yeah,
that was the play we did, our nuclear drills, and
we got under our desk and I got in trouble
with the teacher for asking how that would save us.

Speaker 1 (02:31):
Wait, this is when kindergarten.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
It started in kindergarten. There's never a time in school
where I wasn't considered that that kid by teachers, I think.
But anyway, from those alive during World War Two to
those who grew up prior to the nineteen nineties, one
thing we all had in common was an awareness of
the threat of nuclear war with the Soviet Union, right,

(02:54):
I mean immediately after World War Two, since Kishma and
Nagasaki happened, you had a lot of people think and hey,
it was going to be like the new way of
the world. And look out now. And remarkably, to this day,
we've not had nuclear strike since the one and only time.
So the Multa Summit in December of nineteen eighty nine
it ushered in a new decade, a relative peace in

(03:16):
stability in the nineteen nineties, and with it younger generations
who haven't really lived under a perceived high level threat
of nuclear catastrophe. However, are we potentially entering a new
era where that dynamic is set to change? Could Ukraine's
highly successful drone attack into the Russian interior, destroyed proximately

(03:36):
a third of the Russian bomber fleet, elevate the risk
of a nuclear response by Russia. And it's a good
question that I obviously do not have an empirical answer to,
but that there's a lot of information around this that
I think can be helpful in arriving at the overall likelihood.
In this conversation, you might recall it was just last

(03:57):
November where Russia revised its nuclear doctrine following President Bying's
decision to allow Ukrainian strikes into the Russian interior with
American weapons. And when they revised their nuclear stance, they
lowered the threshold not good, as is stated by Russia.

(04:20):
They may decide to use nukes if reliable information is
received about the launch of ballistic missiles targeting the territory
of Russia or its allies, If nuclear weapons or other
weapons of mass destruction strike the territory of Russia or
its allies, If an enemy's impact on critically important to

(04:42):
Russian government or military facilities could undermine retaliatory nuclear strike capability,
If aggression against Russia or Belarus involving conventional weapons raises
a critical threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity. That's
the most concerning perhaps that this point, if reliable information
is received about the takeoff or launch of strategic or

(05:06):
tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, stron's hypersonic or other flying vehicles,
and crossing the Russian border. And of course it's worth
mentioning that this is also Russia, so there's no reason
to just necessarily think they're going to be entirely transparent
and honest about the use of nukes either. So did
ukraine successful strike against Russia's bombers put all of us

(05:28):
at greater nuclear risk? The answer is probably not meaningfully
specific to Russia's stated doctrine. The strike didn't impair Russia's
nuclear capabilities. That's also key in this conversation. But maybe
even most key is China. And I'll explain China not
our friend, right, as I've said for years, China is Russia,

(05:50):
China is Iran, China is North Korea with a little
rocket band. I kind of miss actually is Cuba is
Venezuela is Nicaragua? Okay, mainly, Joel, I just miss yeah,
Trump saying okay, all right, and when they were in

(06:10):
the news, you got that. So there are many In
many ways, the new axis powers which they kind of represent,
you know, interact with one another. But obviously the most
important player in that axis is China. And here's what
China had to say to Russia in an official statement

(06:31):
about the use of nuclear force. A nuclear war cannot
be won and must never be fought. That is China
to Russia. Now we can also put that with the
astros that okay, So that's China, and it's not like
we can trust them to to say and do the
right thing anymore than Russia. But but a couple things

(06:54):
I'll just throw at you in that regard. If we're
going to have a nuclear World War three, you've got
to imagine China is going to enter that on their
terms rather than being dragged into the potential apocalypse by Russia. One. Additionally,
and importantly, China needs Russian resources and Russia needs China's money.

(07:18):
The reason trade sanctions didn't work against Russia for the
Ukrainian invasion due to the unprecedented trade deal the Russian
struck with the Chinese. Russia doesn't need to export its
energy or it's grain around the world. China's more and
happy to buy all of it and then some. But
China's trade deal with Russia only works if Russia is
still able to produce energy, transport it to them, and

(07:38):
sell grain to them, not exactly something that's really going
to be available if there are nuclear strikes within Russia. Right, so,
there's always a risk in trusting the words world's worst
actors to do the right thing. But even out of
self interest, the risk of nuclear war isn't likely to
be higher than it was previously. And finally, there's this

(07:59):
truth posted by President Trumpy yesterday. He said, I just
finished speaking by telephone with President Vladimir Putin of Russia.
The call asked approximately one hour and fifteen minutes. We
discussed the attack on Russia's docked airplanes by Ukraine and
also various other attacks that have been taking place by
both sides. It was a good conversation, but not a
conversation that will lead to immediate peace. President Putin did

(08:21):
say and very strongly, that he will have to respond
to the recent attack on the airfields. We also discussed
Iran in the fact that time is running out on
Iran's decision pertaining to nuclear weapons, which must be made quickly.
I stated to President Putin that Iran cannot have a
nuclear weapon, and on this I believe we are in agreement.

(08:42):
President Putin suggest that he will participate in the discussions
with Iran and that he could perhaps be helpful and
getting this brought to a rapid conclusion. Okay, so it's
clear Ukraine is going to be hit hard somehow, but
it doesn't sound like we're talking nukes. And if Putin
is talking about being hopeful and keeping nukes away from Iran,

(09:02):
that's potentially encouraging news
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