Q&A – What Is an Average Hurricane Season & How Often Has NOAA Predicted One?

Since the advent of satellite technology, in 1966, the average number of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season is 14.

Episode Transcript

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Your questions, Brian's answers. It's time for today's Q and AM. Today,
this is the Brian Mud Show. Hey, today's Q and A.
What is an average hurricane season? And how often has
Noah predicted one? This is brought to you by mom
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Speaker 3 (01:03):
One, Hey, Brian, As Noah ever predicted a below average season,
every time the praditions come out before June, it's always
an above average season or even an explosive season. I'm
just wondering, are they fear mongering?

Speaker 1 (01:19):
Sure? Does Phil that way, doesn't it? Now a couple
things I'm going to tie together the characterization that gentleman
use at the end that I'll come back and address
that particular point because that descriptor was actually not used
by Noah but by a different prediction service last year.

(01:41):
So at the onset of this year's hurricane season, which
thankfully remains free of any activity, continue to get a
lot of inquiries like this about forecasting methodology and accuracy,
And as I addressed prior to hurricane season, Noah's preseason
forecasting proven to be the most accurate. They have correctly
called two of the previous five hurricane seasons seasons within

(02:05):
their preseason activity range. To give you an idea, all
the other preseason forecasters have missed total activity for each
of the previous five seasons, so nowhere within the activity
range they provided other than Noah. But still even with
Noah that it's only forty percent success into total activity

(02:26):
predictions recently. So about today's question, is there potentially an
implicit bias to project above average hurricane seasons in the
era of climate change hysteria since the advent of satellite
technology in nineteen sixty six. I think that was right
around the time that Joe Biden was working on his

(02:48):
was it his eighth term in the Senate? Joel, I
think it was. I think it was a sixth by
the Yeah, okay, all right. The average number of name
storms during the atletic hurricane season fourteen fourteen. Going back
to sixty six, we've averaged fourteen. Often forecasters will look
at thirty year trends to define what the average is.

(03:11):
Over the most recent thirty years, the average number of
name storms per season has been fifteen. So this analysis
shows the trend has been towards more activity, but actually
only an average of one extra name storm per season
on an average compared to historical norms. So, before diving

(03:34):
into a deeper dive and to Noah's preseason forecasting tendencies,
let's look at how many hurricane seasons have been averaged
to below average since the advent of Noah's preseason hurricane forecasting,
starting with their first preseason forecast in nineteen ninety nine.

(03:55):
Their first hurricane season forecast NOAHS was ninety eight, but
they issued that one after hurricane season had already started,
so the first preseason forecast was ninety nine. Since then,
we have had fourteen average to blow average seasons with
twelve above average seasons. And that's kind of the first

(04:17):
thing to take a look at. I bet a lot
of people are surprised, even that have lived through it, right,
that we've had more average to blow average seasons than
above average seasons over the past twenty six years. Yeah,
I feel like we've just gotten so many above average. Yeah,
that is a shock. So what has NOAH projected over
that same timeframe. NOAH has projected sixteen above average seasons

(04:43):
compared to ten average or below average seasons. Okay, so yeah,
they have overshot on average a little bit. But it's
also worth noting that Noah always offers up a probability
of outcomes rather than saying definitively that a season is
going to be above her blow average. For example, if
you take this year's preseason forecast from Noah, they predicted

(05:06):
a sixty percent chance of an above normal season, a
thirty percent chance of a near normal season, and a
ten percent chance of a below normal season. So, on balance, yeah,
it's an above average forecast, right, But they're still saying
that it's not a slam dunk. It's like a sixty
forty type of thing heading into the season. The biases

(05:27):
towards an above normal season, but not a given. And
so Noah's preseason forecast, going back to what I mentioned
to you, Okay, so on average it has overshot things
a little bit. But if you just take a look
at the generally aligned level of activity in their preseason forecast,

(05:50):
they've been pretty darn good. They've been right eighty six
percent of the time since they started doing this. When
you do a preseason hurricane season forecasts and just kind
of the general trend that you're projecting is right eighty
six percent of the time, it's pretty good, pretty darn good.
I think a lot of us would be happy of
same day forecasts, righty six percent accurate? Right, So, in

(06:13):
other words, Noah hasn't just been the most accurate hurricane
forecaster in recent years, They've consistently provided accurate guidance regarding
the level of activity heading into hurricane season. So it
is possible that the perception of hyped hurricane seasons is
due to the other preseason forecasts that are proven to

(06:33):
be less accurate and have used sensational verbiage as well.
You know, for example, we did have an above average
season last year, but Noah was exactly right within the range.
In fact, last year, of Noah's twenty six years of
doing it, it was their most accurate year today. But yeah,
the others were all higher. And yes, the terminology used

(06:55):
by the listener explosive, that was used by one of
those preseason forecasters, ACI Weather, So that was not Noah.
And I understand that all these different preseason forecasts when
they get reported, they can all blend together and it
can be maybe confusing about what came from where. But
what Noah has said has commonly been a bit different

(07:16):
than some of what we've seen from ACU weather or
the Weather Channel or Colorado State University. And this hurricane season,
it did start out similarly to last year's season. Was
the heir and dust in the air, no preseason activity,
no activity during the first half of June, the first
name storm last year, tropical Storm Alberto developed on June nineteenth,

(07:39):
and it did still turn out to be above average,
something to be mindful of.