Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Today's Q and A, Social Security is looming in solvency.
This is brought to you by and the listener asks
check mark collections each day a feature unlistener question that
is sent by one of these methods. You may email
me Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com, head me up
on social at Brian Mudradio. You may also use the
iHeartRadio talk back feature. Just go to WJNO or viro
Patriot inside of the iHeartRadio app. Make us your number
(00:24):
one preset. Then make the Brian Mudshow podcast my podcast
your number two preset. Look for a little microphone button,
see it, tap it. You may lay down a message
right there, maybe for a future Q and A. Today's
note is this, Brian, I have a question that perhaps
you could address with your daily Q and A. If
Social Security becomes insolvent, I know that payments will be cut.
My question is twofold after cuts, would payments continue to
(00:46):
decline over time? And how big is the shortfall? Social
Security is such a politically sensitive subject. I don't think
politicians will do anything about it until they're forced too.
But as I've heard, the problems will only be worse
by not addressing the issues. Sooner. Okay, Yeah, So Social
Securities looming solvency issues. They've been well known creeping cruds
(01:09):
for decades now, and under the current structure for Social Security,
which was established with a new law in nineteen eighty three. Incidentally,
that was the last time legislative action was taken to
address Social Security social security solvency concerns. We've known that
Social Security's current trajectory hasn't been sustainable for decades. Starting
(01:30):
in nineteen ninety three, these Social Securities Trustees reports have
projected eventual annual shortfalls. Notably, solvency projections have remained extremely
consistent over the years. In nineteen ninety three, the Social
Security Administration projected insolvency for the program's general fund starting
in twenty thirty six. As of last year's report, the
(01:53):
currently projected insolvency did for the general fund hits in
twenty thirty five. So I think it's rather remarkable that
thirty two years later, the projected insolvency date has only
changed by one year. That's it. So, in other words,
all that's meaningfully changed with Social Security since it was
first known that there was a looming solvency crisis within
(02:18):
it it's just our proximity to that date when solvency
issues were projected forty three years into the future, pretty
easy for politicians to ignore the political football that reforming
Social Security would be. Now that we're only eight years
away from projected shortfalls in certain social security programs and
only ten years away from projected general fund insolvency, whether
(02:40):
there is a greater sense of urgency to address the
program's needs even at perhaps not the political will at
this point. In addressing today's question, the first projected program
to reach insolvency is the Social Security old Age in
Survivor's Insurance Fund. Upon insolvency and twenty twenty three, it's
(03:01):
currently projected that payout would be cut two recipients by
twenty one percent twenty one percent initial cut. Now in
twenty thirty five, all social Security programs will have reached
insolvency by current estimates, with benefit cuts averaging seventeen percent.
(03:22):
More recently, put this in perspective for you, this year's
COLA adjustment in plays. The average Social Security recipient receives
eighteen hundred and twenty nine dollars per month, so in
today's dollars, that would represent an average cut of three
hundred and eleven dollars per month in benefits. And as
for whether the prob the problem would continue to worsen
(03:46):
over time time or stabilize after the initial cut, well
projection suggests that without changes, cuts could grow from seventeen
percent to as high as forty eight percent over time.
Massive right, so yes, social security is projected. Insolvency is
only expected to considerably get worse if it's left unaddressed.
(04:09):
As for the projected shortfall, while the Committee for a
Responsible Federal Budget estimates that in order to avoid insolvency
without changes in the current program, an additional three trillion
dollars in revenue or three hundred billion annually beyond current
projections would need to be brought into the program. This
(04:35):
is illustrative of how waiting to address issues is problematic.
Federal spending is estimated to hit six point eight trillion
dollars during the current fiscal year. Three hundred billion is significant,
but it still is only I say that in quotations
only four point four percent of the total federal budget. However,
(04:56):
imagine trying to account for a shortfall of three trillion
dollars or forty four percent of the country's entire annual
spend all at once not viable, especially for a country
already thirty six and a half trillion in debt, let
alone what am I being ten years? So for that reason,
it's likely changes will come to the program like what
(05:17):
we saw in the early eighties prior to insolvency taking place. Now,
for his part, President Trump has said he will strengthen
the program, with an indication that the strengthening would largely
come from reducing waste, fraud, and abuse within it. Now officially,
the Social Security Administration estimates fraud to be thirteen point
(05:39):
six billion dollars annually. Elon Musk indicated over the weekend
that abuse between Medicare and Social Security made total one
hundred billion dollars even if say, fifty billion in fraud
was eliminated annually, but that would still only account for
a sixth of the estimated annual shortfall. Well, so obviously helpful,
(06:02):
but not exactly a panacea. Another way the program can
be strengthened without meaningful changes is through economic growth. If,
for example, the labor participation rate rises and wage growth
meaningfully expands above the current trend line, you'd have more
people paying into social security and at higher levels, that
(06:26):
could go a long way towards bridging the gap.
Today's Q and A, Social Security is looming in solvency.
This is brought to you by and the listener asks
check mark collections each day a feature unlistener question that
is sent by one of these methods. You may email
me Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com, head me up
on social at Brian Mudradio. You may also use the
iHeartRadio talk back feature. Just go to WJNO or viro
Patriot inside of the iHeartRadio app. Make us your number
(00:24):
one preset. Then make the Brian Mudshow podcast my podcast
your number two preset. Look for a little microphone button,
see it, tap it. You may lay down a message
right there, maybe for a future Q and A. Today's
note is this, Brian, I have a question that perhaps
you could address with your daily Q and A. If
Social Security becomes insolvent, I know that payments will be cut.
My question is twofold after cuts, would payments continue to
(00:46):
decline over time? And how big is the shortfall? Social
Security is such a politically sensitive subject. I don't think
politicians will do anything about it until they're forced too.
But as I've heard, the problems will only be worse
by not addressing the issues. Sooner. Okay, Yeah, So Social
Securities looming solvency issues. They've been well known creeping cruds
(01:09):
for decades now, and under the current structure for Social Security,
which was established with a new law in nineteen eighty three. Incidentally,
that was the last time legislative action was taken to
address Social Security social security solvency concerns. We've known that
Social Security's current trajectory hasn't been sustainable for decades. Starting
(01:30):
in nineteen ninety three, these Social Securities Trustees reports have
projected eventual annual shortfalls. Notably, solvency projections have remained extremely
consistent over the years. In nineteen ninety three, the Social
Security Administration projected insolvency for the program's general fund starting
in twenty thirty six. As of last year's report, the
(01:53):
currently projected insolvency did for the general fund hits in
twenty thirty five. So I think it's rather remarkable that
thirty two years later, the projected insolvency date has only
changed by one year. That's it. So, in other words,
all that's meaningfully changed with Social Security since it was
first known that there was a looming solvency crisis within
(02:18):
it it's just our proximity to that date when solvency
issues were projected forty three years into the future, pretty
easy for politicians to ignore the political football that reforming
Social Security would be. Now that we're only eight years
away from projected shortfalls in certain social security programs and
only ten years away from projected general fund insolvency, whether
(02:40):
there is a greater sense of urgency to address the
program's needs even at perhaps not the political will at
this point. In addressing today's question, the first projected program
to reach insolvency is the Social Security old Age in
Survivor's Insurance Fund. Upon insolvency and twenty twenty three, it's
(03:01):
currently projected that payout would be cut two recipients by
twenty one percent twenty one percent initial cut. Now in
twenty thirty five, all social Security programs will have reached
insolvency by current estimates, with benefit cuts averaging seventeen percent.
(03:22):
More recently, put this in perspective for you, this year's
COLA adjustment in plays. The average Social Security recipient receives
eighteen hundred and twenty nine dollars per month, so in
today's dollars, that would represent an average cut of three
hundred and eleven dollars per month in benefits. And as
for whether the prob the problem would continue to worsen
(03:46):
over time time or stabilize after the initial cut, well
projection suggests that without changes, cuts could grow from seventeen
percent to as high as forty eight percent over time.
Massive right, so yes, social security is projected. Insolvency is
only expected to considerably get worse if it's left unaddressed.
(04:09):
As for the projected shortfall, while the Committee for a
Responsible Federal Budget estimates that in order to avoid insolvency
without changes in the current program, an additional three trillion
dollars in revenue or three hundred billion annually beyond current
projections would need to be brought into the program. This
(04:35):
is illustrative of how waiting to address issues is problematic.
Federal spending is estimated to hit six point eight trillion
dollars during the current fiscal year. Three hundred billion is significant,
but it still is only I say that in quotations
only four point four percent of the total federal budget. However,
(04:56):
imagine trying to account for a shortfall of three trillion
dollars or forty four percent of the country's entire annual
spend all at once not viable, especially for a country
already thirty six and a half trillion in debt, let
alone what am I being ten years? So for that reason,
it's likely changes will come to the program like what
(05:17):
we saw in the early eighties prior to insolvency taking place. Now,
for his part, President Trump has said he will strengthen
the program, with an indication that the strengthening would largely
come from reducing waste, fraud, and abuse within it. Now officially,
the Social Security Administration estimates fraud to be thirteen point
(05:39):
six billion dollars annually. Elon Musk indicated over the weekend
that abuse between Medicare and Social Security made total one
hundred billion dollars even if say, fifty billion in fraud
was eliminated annually, but that would still only account for
a sixth of the estimated annual shortfall. Well, so obviously helpful,
(06:02):
but not exactly a panacea. Another way the program can
be strengthened without meaningful changes is through economic growth. If,
for example, the labor participation rate rises and wage growth
meaningfully expands above the current trend line, you'd have more
people paying into social security and at higher levels, that
(06:26):
could go a long way towards bridging the gap.
Popular Podcasts
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.