Revisited: The Impact of Illegal Aliens on Housing Inflation

Revisited: The Impact of Illegal Aliens on Housing Inflation

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Yeah, today's Q and A how will deportations impact housing inflation?
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(00:22):
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(00:44):
this at Brian Mud Radio, what people are missing is
that deportations will reduce housing inflation. Well, the bottom line
is that you're right, you know. Amid the many concerns
being voiced and news reports about President Trump's recently announced
tariffs and imports from Canada, China, and Mexico, potentially leading
to higher costs for any goods. What has it been

(01:06):
discussed the deflationary impact of Trump's border enforcement policies and
deportation plan. The fact of the matter is that the
record level of illegal immigration into the United States during
the Biden administration proved to be highly inflationary. Last April,
I reported on the inflation impacts of illegal immigration for

(01:26):
the purpose of determining whether it was inflationary or deflationary,
as open borders advocates had often indicated that it was,
the argument being by the way, you'll have the open
borders types to say, well, illegal immigrants they provide cheap labor.
They do the jobs that Americans wouldn't do, and if
you did have Americans doing those jobs, you have to
pay a lot more, so stuff would cost a lot more. So.

(01:49):
During that exercise, I was able to make these three conclusions.
Number One, there is no doubt that the net effect
of those liking legal status is inflationary. Number Two, the
narrative that illegal immigration is to inflationary is false. And three,
housing is the sector of the economy with the most
inflationary pressure from illegal immigrants. In fact, during that analysis,

(02:13):
I surmise that the likely reason the Biden administration and
the Federal Reserve so poorly miscalculated and mismanaged inflation was
because of this reality. As I noted, illegal immigration is
likely the reason economists and Federal Reserve governors alike consistently
underestimated inflation pressures all throughout twenty twenty one, because economic

(02:38):
modeling and forecasting is based on knowns, which rely heavily
on historical trends, and those aren't nearly as reliable when
historic numbers of people lack illegal status are pouring into
the country every day, often becoming part of an ever
growing shadow economy. You'll remember, all throughout twenty twenty one,
we were hearing how inflation was transatory, and you're going, no,

(03:06):
I just went to the grocery store. It's awful, and
it's actually worse than the last time I was there. Yes,
but it's so transsatory. No, really, you don't know what
you're talking about. No, you peasant folks need to listen
to us elites. They're starting to sound like ghosts. They

(03:27):
should be should definitely be relegated to the dustbin of history,
all the transitory people. But anyway, while inflation pressures came
at US from all sides over the prior four years.
The biggest impact came from our biggest expense, which is housing.
A twenty twenty four Center for Immigration Studies report showed

(03:49):
that the settled meaning housed, illegal immigrant population grew by
ten point two million people. That number was likely hired
by the end of the administration. Again, this was presented
during the year. Obviously, those people live somewhere, and the
extra demand for housing has had a significant impact on
house inflation. Now, there are multiple examples and data points

(04:12):
we can point to to illustrate the point. I want
to start with an example that is well known and
is also a highly illustrative of the impact illegal immigration
can have on housing costs and communities. If there is
one community that is most well known for the impact
of illegal immigration, it would be Springfield, Ohio. Right, because

(04:34):
what goes on in Springfield, Ohio, Joel, they're eating the cats,
They're eating the dogs. That was supposed to be Trump
definitely Roman, Yeah, but entertaining nevertheless, So anyway, Yes, whether

(04:59):
the there were pets that were ever nibbled on in Springfield,
Ohio or not, we certainly became aware of the circumstances there.
You know, the Biden administration brought approximately twenty thousand asylum seekers,
all with almost all of which are illegal immigrants, into
the community of about sixty thousand people. Imagine, you have

(05:20):
basically just illegal immigrants a third the size, totally in
the third of the size of your community just dumped
on you. So what happened. According to the Cato Institute,
using redfin sales data, the average increase in housing costs
in Springfield rose by one hundred and one percent during
this time, compared to a forty six percent increase nationally.

(05:44):
Now this is a really good example because some communities,
you know, like some of ours in South Florida, we
always have extra demand because we have so many more
people that are interested in living here than it can
even afford to do. So Springfield, Ohio not exactly one
of those places, right, You've never come across the end
in your life you went, hey, you know where I

(06:04):
really aspired to get to Springfield, Ohio. In fact, outside
of the people who live there, probably most people have
never heard of it. So that is really illustrative of
just the impact of the illegal immigration and in community
housing inflation was fifty five percent higher in that community

(06:26):
because of the illegal immigration now compared to the national average.
But obviously that's a specific and that's an extreme example.
So what has the typical impact been. Well, last September,
in a house hearing a Center for Immigration Studies presentation
entitled the Consequences of Illegal Immigration for Housing, affordability, government

(06:49):
budgets and American Workers surmised these takeaways. The current surge
of illegal immigration unprecedented visa overstays hit a record. The
illegal immigrant population grew to fourteen million by twenty twenty four,
and by increasing demand for housing, immigration drives up costs
in areas where immigrants settle. Okay, so what did that

(07:13):
translate to in hard dollars and cents? What was the
actual cost for housing? This was pretty remarkable. For every
five percent increase in illegal immigrant population, the increase in
housing costs for American citizens was twelve percent. Again, five
percent increase illegals, twelve percent increase in housing costs for Americans.

(07:37):
Why it might sound odd because that is a multiplification effect. Well,
the reason is that illegal immigrants have commonly been using
what housing affordable housing options right, affordable housing, the lack
of housing specifically targeted for affordable housing pushes more Americans

(08:04):
into traditional housing units that come with much higher costs.
What's more, are the hidden costs, for example, higher property
taxes to pay for schools. If you take a look
at your property tax bill, what is the single biggest
expense on your property tax bill public schools? Well, get this.

(08:24):
The same study showed that the costs of public education
to taxpayers for illegal immigrants topped sixty eight billion dollars
just last year, paying sixty eight billion dollars predominantly out
of your property taxes just to educate and provide food,

(08:45):
whatever other services out of our schools for those that
are illegal immigrants. So how does this translate? In Florida,
for example, you put all this together, illegal immigration has
added an estimated forty six thousand, four hundred and twenty
seven dollars to the cost of the average home in
our state. Or if you're renting, how much more is

(09:07):
it costing you to rent because of illegal immigrants two
hundred and eighty eight dollars per month? Kind of a
big deal. So given these realities, there is no doubt
that the combination of curbing the illegal immigration into this
country while also targeting over one thousand illegal immigrants per
day will have a profound impact on reducing housing inflation

(09:28):
over the next four years.