The GOP Can Win the Midterm Elections Right Now – Top 3 Takeaways

With the Democrat Party currently being measured by pollsters as being in the poorest position the party has been in, in modern political history, there’s a reason to believe this type of strategy would be well positioned to work – retaining a GOP majority in the federal government through the conclusion of Trump’s presidency. 

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hey, thanks for listening, and welcome back to the Brian
Mud Show. Time now for today's top three takeaways. The
gup I can win the midterm elections right now, could
happen right now my top takeaway for you upon further review.
So as we get going on this Monday, hope you

(00:25):
had a nice weekend with the stormy and went one.
But nevertheless redistricting. Redistructing kicked up in a very big
way in California, in Texas last week. Conversations have been underway.
In fact, the first formal steps already moved forward in
the state of Florida to evaluate this. But we're not
the only state, and you now have redistricting fever that's

(00:46):
catching on across the country. I'm going to walk you
through the implications here. First, this is Kevin Kylie. This
is one of the Republicans in California that is being
targeted by the hairs new map. California Governor Gavin Newsom
and the Democrats that are pushed towards a new map
had this to say.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
Gavin Newsom has cooked up this scheme to overturn the
will of voters and blow up our state's constitution in
order to reduce Republicans from what we have now, which
is nine seats out of fifty two, and instead have
us have four or five seats out of fifty two,
even though we get over forty percent of the vote
in statewide elections.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
Okay, So, as I've previously discussed, having a new census
conducted mid decade is literally possible, as in the Constitution
does allow for it to happen, but it's never happened
and it's not about to happen now because it's politically implausible.
The proposal would have to be ratified and funded by Congress,
which would face an uphill battle in the House, to

(01:43):
say the least, because you'd have blue state Republicans that
likely wouldn't want to go along with it, and it
would face an impossible position in the Senate as numerous
Democrats would have to get on board with President Trump's
to make it reality, and that is not going to
be reality. More interesting is the potential for the two
only twenty census data to be uncovered and re examined,

(02:05):
with the potential to fix the methodology used to determine
the results, which, as I also uncovered, was highly questionable
at best, with Florida standing as the state that was
most negatively impacted by the questionable census calculations, leading to
an estimated three and a half percent undercount four our state,
resulting in lost congressional and electoral college representation and funding.

(02:27):
This is the angle that Governor DeSantis is now focused
on pursuing, as he recently said, the Attorney General told
me he's going to be willing to go up to
Washington and talk to people in the Commerce Department to
be able to get this right. I know President Trump
has spoken about the need to fix the problems with
the census. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but every state

(02:50):
that got short change was Republican state. Every state that
got more was a Democrat state. That's just the truth
about how the census was applied. Well, okay, so as
always get two sides of the stories, one side of facts.
Those are the facts, and the governor is right. As
Florida Taxbats recently illustrated, a corrected senses would result in
the loss of representation of three blue states Colorado, Minnesota,

(03:14):
and Rhode Island, with those gains picked up in three
red states Florida, Tennessee and Texas. And what are the
odds that a methodology of calculation that had never been
used before, that's opegue, so we don't actually know what
exactly it was, but was adhered by the Biden administration
resulted in that outcome that just so happened that it

(03:34):
benefited three blue states at the expense of three red
states total.

Speaker 3 (03:38):
Coinkyting, Brian, And for you to say anything else is
never mind.

Speaker 1 (03:43):
You could have just said that you forgotten. That would
be consistent with the former president. Yes, I forgot what
I was saying, you know, the thing, the thing, that thing.
So the the corrected senses presents a compelling op to
toity for the GOP. But while we wait to see
if they corrected census will become reality. Yeah, redistricting is happening.

(04:08):
That is what's really breaking out here. My second takeaway
for you today. And I mentioned that you kind of
have redistricting fever. That's picking up. So yeah, we're beginning
the process of evaluation in Florida. A lot of states are.
The governor of Maryland had this to say over the weekend.

Speaker 4 (04:22):
Maryland Governor Wes Moore on CBS Face the Nation said,
while Governor Gavin Newsom in California acts to offset Texas
redrawing district lines to create more Republican friendly seats. Maryland
must consider the same.

Speaker 5 (04:36):
I want to make sure that we have fair lines
and fair seats where we don't have situations where where
politicians are choosing voters, but that voters actually have a
chance to choose their elected officials.

Speaker 1 (04:46):
We need to be able to have fair maps.

Speaker 4 (04:48):
Maryland has eight congressional districts. Any effort to redraw district
lines would likely target the one Maryland seat now held
by a Republican.

Speaker 1 (04:57):
And this is the thing. Let's be honest about what's
happening here. Texas jerrymandering the crap out of their map, right,
California jerymandering the crap out of their map. Any states
that are looking to do this are looking to jerry mander.

(05:17):
They're looking to exact maximum political advantage for their party. Period.
Let's not pretend it's anything different. I will tell you
that in the grand scheme of this type of process,
this guy treating the rest of us like we're sub morons.
I just one fair match. The match if they were
only fair and representing people, you have one freaking elected

(05:40):
Republican in your state, and you're like, and we can
go get them. That's all this is, just be honest
with us about that. So the in the grand skeep
of this process, that is the one thing that's nogo.
Let's just have intellectual honesty with one another. Shelling. So anyway,
since this correstion er knows. Since this correction, both Texas

(06:02):
and California moved ahead last week with the votes to
kick off the redistricting processes in their states, regardless of
what does or doesn't happen with the potential census changes.
An interesting analysis published by Reuters over the weekend illustrated
the view of the possible if this were to become
a trend for a state to push through a redistricting

(06:22):
plan that's aimed at jerrymandering or attempting to maximize the
political advantage of the majority party in the state, you've
got to have what you're going to have to have
single party majority in the state government. Right, You're going
to have to have control of everything the legislative chambers,
the governor unless you have veto the ability to write
a veto. If you have that kind of legislative power,
that could be.

Speaker 3 (06:42):
On the thing.

Speaker 1 (06:42):
But anyway, Republicans have a significant advantage nationally here there
are currently thirty eight states, including Florida, with one party rule,
which has an aside. If you think about this in
the context of blue and red states and how that
can just kind of like be overused, not really anymore, right,
it's essentially accurate because when you have only twelve states

(07:03):
that have any kind of a divided government thirty eight
to twelve, I mean that tells you something, right, So
I mean, we only have moved into the territory of
blue and red states as the overwhelming majority of this country.
Of those thirty eight states, twenty three are led by
the GOP, with only fifteen governed by Democrats. What's more

(07:26):
is that when you account for population, the current political
makeup congressionally, what might be able to be achieved, and
both parties pushed for maximum advantage in those thirty eight states,
the GOP would win big, win big. Republicans would have
a net eleven seat jerrymandering advantage of the House. If
everybody win for it an eleven seed jerrymander to the

(07:47):
advantage of Republicans, that's a massive swing in the body.
The GOP only had a five seat advantage coming into
the current Congress, and so what that means is my
third takeaway. Today, the GOP holds the potential to swings
fourteen to swing fourteen seats in the US House, that is,
prior to next year's midterm elections, without having a new

(08:09):
census conducted. The first award from Joel's favorite governor.

Speaker 3 (08:18):
Aesthetically, I would never say he's my favorite anything. I
am envious of the.

Speaker 1 (08:26):
Hair, favorite hair of a governor.

Speaker 3 (08:29):
There you go, Okay, okay.

Speaker 1 (08:32):
Can't win by playing by traditional sets of rules.

Speaker 3 (08:36):
He plays by no rules.

Speaker 1 (08:38):
I remind you all the time.

Speaker 3 (08:39):
It's not the rule of lot's the rule of dog.
Look what I did there?

Speaker 1 (08:43):
Yeah, I'm a cool guy.

Speaker 3 (08:46):
Yeah, anybody got some more hair product?

Speaker 2 (08:49):
I lost?

Speaker 3 (08:50):
I'm out, I'm out. Hurry Yep.

Speaker 1 (08:54):
You want to talk about somebody who probably takes no
smoking seriously, Yeah, I do not want that into the
vicinity of that man. So anyway, the fourteen swing seats
that you could have in the House, over this entire process,

(09:14):
they corrected census and maximum jerrymandering in all the states
where you have single party majorities. This uarly will not
be lost in President Trump as he seeks to regain
i should say, retain control of Congress for the duration
of his second term, and as the president's party has
not gained seats in the US House during a midterm
election since George W. Bush's first term twenty three years ago.

(09:37):
That happened in the wake of nine to eleven. A
lot of things to consider here. In the five midterm
elections since, a president has lost a minimum of nine
seats from their party's ranks in the midterms. That was Biden,
with losses as big as sixty three seats that was
obaman Is first term. The average change in the past
five midterms has been thirty one seats. That's been the

(09:59):
average loss for the president's party. No amount of jerrymandering
for the GOP would account for all of that, but
even the lowest loss total of nine would be enough
to shift control the House of the Democrat Party. As
things stand, however, if Republicans were able to move fourteen
seats in their favor through redistricting and census correcting, they
would head into next year's midterm elections with the cushion
of nineteen going in At that point. If Republicans performed

(10:22):
as well as either the Democrat Party during Biden's midterms
in twenty twenty two or Obama's in his second term
in twenty fourteen, Republicans would still be in the majority,
with the Democrat Party currently being measured by pollsters as
then the poorest positions ever been in There is a
reason to believe that this type of strategy would be
well positioned to work, retaining a GOP majority in the

(10:44):
federal government through the conclusion of Trump's presidency.