Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to the Brian Much Show and thank you for listening.
It's time for today's top three takeaways. Helpful, useful, repeatable.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Trump's trade tariffs and surpluses. Oh my, a top three
takeaways for you on this Monday.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Hope it's off tonight, start for you.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Even though it's been rainy through the night and a
lot of places throughout the area rainy much of the
weekend throughout much of the area, of no concern to
Mucia Melkin.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Never going to have rain interrupting his plans.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Now, I was at a gathering. I was actually invited
to somebody's birthday party this weekend. It went on Saturday
in Wellington, Eastern Wellington area, and it started pouring outside.
I'm like, well, thank goodness, thank goodness. I'm indoors.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
I was gonna say, well, if it started pouring inside,
that bigger issues. No, a lot, pretty bad lot to
start pouring out, pretty bad, probably around four ish, Yeah, yeah, yeah,
I know, some some rough storms the afternoons past couple
of days will continue to be that today, all right,
my top takeaway for you today? What's up with trade?
What's up with trade? Tariffs? And how about liberation? Day
(01:20):
two point zero. My top three takeaways, starting with where
we stand on trade entering today, There's Fox's Channely Painter.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Was one of the big developments.
Speaker 4 (01:29):
America's largest trading partner, in the European Union, says it's
willing to negotiate a trade deal with the US. This
as the Trump administration is threatening to impose a thirty
percent tariff on European exports starting August first, that's unless
a new trade agreement can be reached. The European Union
also saying it will delay trade countermeasures against the US
(01:51):
in order to allow more time to work out in agreement.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Okay, so there you go, and that's that's pretty big too.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
That's you know, they're they're taking a look at being
serious once again, which is what Trump is going for.
It's premature to the clare victory on Trump's tariff policy,
especially as it pertains to what may happen on August first,
which based upon the countries he sent tariff letters to, which,
by the way, by Mike count we're up to twenty
(02:18):
one different countries that have received tariff letters over the
past week, stating that the current ten percent across the
board tariffs will rise significantly.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
If they do nothing has the makings of potentially being.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Like Liberation Liberation Day two point zero as that broke
out last week. New trade deals are only in place
with China, the UK, and Vietnam, or countries representing just
eighteen point six percent of US trade. That means there's
a super high game of trade chicken taking place, as
(02:56):
President Trump has fouled that August first is a hard
deadline and that he will not be delaying implementing higher
tariffs this time around, now an apparent reason for the
stall tactic by other countries in waiting to agree to
new trade deals, so many are attempting to wait out
what might happen with lawsuits challenging President Trump's authority to
(03:19):
unilaterally implement universal tariffs. See the August first deadline not
an arbitrary date. If you've heard this, you're like, why
August first? I didn't just pull that out of the sky.
It is a timed calculation by President Trump. See in
May you might remember kind of this sequence of events,
the US Court of International Trade struck down Trump's tariffs,
(03:42):
citing a lack of executive authority to issue the deliberation
day tariffs, And it was a day later that the
US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted a
temporary stay on the CIT's ruling, allowing the tariffs to
remain in effect pending the government's appeal. So the next
key date, what does it happen to be? None other
(04:04):
than July thirty first. July thirty first, that is when
oral arguments are scheduled in the tariff case before the
US Court of Appeals. So Trump wants these trade deals
done on the date, no later. Then the next step
in this legal process is going to play out so
(04:24):
that the outcome of the case is moot.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
For other countries.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
It's a role the dice to hold out hope that
they might win in the US legal system while we
wait to watch what will be with all of that.
My second takeaway for you today Trump was right about everything,
or at least the tariff thing. President Trump at Joint
Base Andrews talking about Federal Reserve Chairman drum Powell when
(04:50):
he's asked about him yesterday. Well, I think if Jerome
Palell stepped down, it would be a great thing.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
I don't know that he's going to, but he should. Yeah,
Jerome Powell too late.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
I was gonna say, you didn't use the too late.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
It's too late, too wrong.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
So starting with economists, there are no shortage of quote
unquote experts, pundons and pentnheads too, including the aforementioned to
pal that don't fundamentally understand the economy or at least
know how to account for it fully, but that weighing
on it anyway, that keep getting things wrong. The examples
too many to mention, but they're pervasive during Trump's two administrations,
(05:32):
but from the impact of President Trump's first term tax
cutting Jobs Act and tear policy, which, as you'll recall,
was exceedingly positive. Remember we were told all the tax
cuts are awful only for the ridge, going to be
bad for the economy. Oh the tariffs, I mean, you're
never going to be able to afford appliances. Again, remember
that during the first term, and then what happened.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
People benefited.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
We had the best overall economy in US history preceding
the pandemic. And so already what we've seen with the
real world impact of President Trump's Liberation Day ten percent
across the board tariff policy that it will and probably
(06:17):
what will be with the recently signed BBB as well.
For that matter, is that experts, pundits and pin heads,
some of which is kind of redundant in saying that
are already proving that they're wrong. They've already been dead wrong,
especially on the tariff thing. On Friday, we received one
of the more significant monthly budget reports from the Treasury
Department in modern American history. Now, really, good chance you
(06:42):
didn't hear anything about this, And Joel's.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Like, what they really I didn't?
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Yeah, Well, I just I don't think unless you were
almost seeking this information out, I don't know you would
have that. You would have even accidentally run about across
pretty much anywhere. What made it so special Friday's Treasury
report on Budgets on deficits.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Two things.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
It was the first monthly report that is said to
have fully accounted for the impact of President Trump's Liberation
Day tariffs on the US economy. Remember how businesses built
up a lot of inventory bofthings in advance of Liberation Day. Well,
by June, you know, you had to have a reaccounting
of things, and so whatever was going to be from
(07:33):
those tariffs, we would know in June.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
Now.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
And of course, also it's important to know where the
US economy stood entering the impact of press and Trump's
One Big, Beautiful Bill Act. Remember the big concern about
this debts and deficits, right, and how are we ever
going to afford this? Well, the answer about where we
stood in June was better than literally any economists had predicted.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Is not a single.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Single economists to put out a forecast that got this
thing right or even close to being right.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
What did Friday's report show?
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Oh? The question is how big of a deficit do
you think the US ran in June? And we hear
about having these two trillion dollar deficits a year these days?
How big was our deficit in June? How much debt
to the US AD during the month?
Speaker 1 (08:30):
What do you think?
Speaker 2 (08:30):
One hundred billion, two hundred billion, gazillion dollars? We added
a gazillion dollars in debt in June.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
I know it.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
None of the above, because my third takeaway for you today,
the US had a budget surplus in June, a budget
serveplus in June. How Speaker Mike Johnson with Maria Bartromi yesterday, we're.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Spending the money efficiently and effectively. That's what the American
people demand.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
To deserve might not just be rhetoric from Mike Johnson.
So yeah, that's right. And get this, Not only do
we run a budget surplus in June, which literally not
a single economist predicted, but we actually did for the
second month out of three. You take a look at
the three full months and we have information four since
(09:14):
the tariffs went into place.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
What have we seen two of the three.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Not only have we not had deficits, we've had surpluses
or in other words, a profit that the government is running.
It happened to be twenty seven billion dollar profit during
the month of June.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Why how could this be the case? Three big reasons.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
One revenue to the treasury it increased a whopping thirteen
percent year every year driven by a strong economy. And
two record tariff revenue, record tariff revenue that equaled about
what the surplus was during the month. Tariff revenue was
about five hundred percent year every year. And three, spending
(09:54):
by the treasury dropped year every year, actually dropped year
every year, in part driven by federal government dosing and
just having fewer federal government employees. And so the point
is this on the economy, Trump was right about everything
in this first administration, while almost all others reporting, discussing,
and projecting his policies were wrong. What we've already seen
(10:15):
through the first five months of Trump's second term said
he's been right about all his economic related policies yet again,
while the aforementioned have pretty much been wrong about everything
yet again. So with the BBB sets a kick in
along with Trump's Liberation day two point zero tierriffs looming
on the horizon two, there's one of two ways to
look at this. The way that most media, most the
(10:36):
experts were the experts. I have a piece of paper
that calls me an expert, and I have these these
people of the GSS news that will put me, put
me on and call me an expert. So you have
those people and the pundits that have been dead wrong
on Trump for a decade now, which always amazes me
(10:58):
because I really do wonder how long can you be
wrong and still employed. It just fascinated to me or
through the prism that Trump has been right about everything.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
That is a choice.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
You can look at it through the prison and Trump
has been right about everything because on the economy, on
tariff's he has been