July 29, 2025 • 10 mins
Wading through trade deals is hard. Estimating the impact of trade deals harder. Figuring out who wins the U.S. trade deals is easy. With Donald Trump as president of the United States...we win. Bigly.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hey, thanks for listening, and welcome back to the Brian
Mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Time now for today's top three takeaways.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hey, there happen Tuesday for you and uh well, speaking
of it for you, Trump Trump's sir man, what he is?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Negotiator for you? Vaguely huge?
Speaker 3 (00:23):
What are you?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
What's your preference these days? Jill Bigly Bigly? He didn't
use it anymore. Though there are not many.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Things that Trump changes as a result of people like
mocking him or whatever, I feel like that was one
of them, because if remember, Bigley was a big Lely
thing for Trump in the very early going politically, you know,
campaign trail fifteen sixteen, and I want to say, early
(00:51):
months of his presidency, and then he went away, he
sheltered it. And it's like, I feel that was an
intentional thing. Bring big Lely back, bring the other BBB,
make Bigly great again.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
So, anyway, what President Trump has negotiated for you my
top takeaway today, speaking of big lea, speaking of great things,
here's Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
They agreed for the first time ever to cut all
their tariffs, cut their barriers, and let American businesses and
farmers and ranchers and fishermen finally sell into the European Union,
massive market. This is huge for America.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
It is huge for America. He is absolutely right about that.
What I'm here to tell you, after spending a lot
of time analyzing all this stuff yesterday, is that it's
huge for America. This is huge for you, Bigger than
I even had envisioned. That's what I wanted was actually
(01:55):
saying now today, was trying to understand this. I'm like, okay,
where are we Because took a look at just the
you know, the highlights of the EU trade deal. My
hold on this looks almost too good to be true,
and so almost is.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
And then you put all the trade deals together.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
So I started just getting it all in and then
I worked on it for a while and I came
up with what I'm getting ready to share you share
with you. So the bottom line is this, Waiting through
trade deals is hard. Estimating the impact of trade deals harder.
Figuring out who wins US trade deals. That part became
(02:36):
very easy with Donald Trump as President of the United States.
We win bigly, and what figures to be the most
important wing for trade in either of Trump's presidencies, we
did start off with a bang. As Sunday it brought
that EU Trade deal to completion. It is the biggest
trade deal to date as just the EU piece, because
(02:59):
it's all Theuropean countries not named England. We have a
separate trade deal with them. Eighteen percent of all US
trade in that EU trade deal. So, as I mentioned
yesterday in advance of the president's deadline, Trump has worked
out trade deals with China, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, United Kingdom, Vietnam,
(03:19):
and now the EU, representing approximately forty three percent of
total US trade. Now, it was immediately clear that the
EU trade deal was largely a one sided win. One
of the things I like to do, as kind of
like a jumping off point when I researched these things,
I like to go to the countries that are impacted.
(03:43):
What are they saying about this? How is this plane?
Where they are? And while the BBC is obviously out
of England, they do happen to be the largest news
organization throughout all of Europe. And so, as the BBC
reported yesterday, they identified President Trump as the biggest winner.
(04:04):
They went through winners and losers. President Trump the biggest
winner what they had to say. After promising new trade
deals with dozens of countries, Trump has just landed the
biggest of them all. It looks to most commentators that
the EU has given up more, with incident analysis by
Capital Economics suggesting a zero point five percent not to GDP.
(04:28):
Now that's too, Europe's GDP not ours. There will also
be tens of billions of dollars pouring into US coffers
in import taxes.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Right, So the.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Bottom line is that the EU's pain is our gain here.
But how good have the deals been that have been
done for the US thus far? So, as I mentioned,
spent time with US yesterday, really worked on getting all
the menusia together, estimating and evaluating the tear revenue they'll
be collected new investments into the United States that are
(05:04):
part of these deals, Export gains with foreign markets being
open to US goods, all set by consumer costs because
there is an increase in cost to US for many
of these tariffs. When you put that whole ball of
wax together, the estimated net benefit I was able to
derive from the deals I've already already been done is
(05:27):
two hundred and fifty five billion dollars more for the
US economy annually. Now that's a number, and you're like, Okay,
I guess that sounds cool.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
What does that mean?
Speaker 1 (05:42):
In other words, by the time we factor in the
good and the bad that comes with these trade deals,
which again do include those higher tariffs, and people be.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Very quick in this country.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
Yeah, but the taroft You're right, there are some higher
costs that comes with with some of these tariffs, but
that's all factored in here.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
The positives just so far outweigh those negatives.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Brings me in my second takeaway today, we are coming
out on top in a major, major way.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Florida Congressman Gregg Stuby.
Speaker 4 (06:10):
He's putting America first and Non America last, like you
said he would do on the campaign trail. For far
too long, the European Union has been doing a surplus
and US a deficit on trade, and finally we have
a leader in President Trump who's.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Riding that and bringing that back.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
Yes, So to put this a different way, for every
one percent of trade that takes place, President Trump has
been able to squeeze out an extra five point ninety
three billion dollars net for the US economy.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
All Right, so.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
We've we have new trade deals for forty three percent
of all of our trade partners.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Every one percent that forty.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Three if Trump had done nothing, just the left of
the way it was, we would get five point ninety
three billion dollars less for the US economy out of it.
Every single year. That is how big of a deal
this is. At that pace is kept through the eventual
completion of this process, he'll have added an extra five
(07:22):
hundred and ninety three billion dollars. And again these are
annual numbers, annual residual, in other words, an extra two
percent to the US economy each year. It is hard
to kind of like just put towards the impact of
(07:43):
that just through these negotiations. Here's the final way I'll
frame this for today, because again I really was working
on trying to boil this down in a way that
would make sense, that is easy enough to understand. What
Trump has already done. What he's already done will add
(08:05):
nearly one percent to the US GDP growth annually zero
point nine percent. If he completes his trade deals at
the same pace, Trump's negotiation skills will add two percent
to economic growth per year. By way of comparison. I
think this is what will help drive home what that means.
(08:27):
The CBO's estimated annual growth rate for the US economy
over the next decade and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, well, which,
by the way, how you feel about this today, Joel, Well, I.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Feel pretty good about it based on what you're well, I'm.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Talking about the the the BBB. You know, you're still
down with the BBB or you are kind of like.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Yeah, I mean, it's it's done. We needed it. Okay,
it's done. We needed aspects of it. It's done and
needed to be done.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
I took a look at that that hamburger.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
It's done and needed to be done. It's kind of
like one of those you know, I'll take the good
with the bad. I enjoyed the taste. I mean, that's
essentially the good with the bad. Yeah. Right.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
So, by way of comparison, the CBS estimated annual growth
right for the economy and the One Big Potentially esthetically
Pleasing Act was one point eight percent. One point eight percent.
Trump's trade deals were not at all factored into the
CBO's estimate for the BBB. Okay, So, in other words,
the Trump trade factor alone holds the potential, to my
(09:41):
third takeaway today, grow the US economy faster than the
CBO projected.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Every the next seconde just Trump's the trade.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Is on pace to grow the US economy faster than
the CBO projected, meaning the CBO projected growth would be
on top of that, would be all on top of that.
So this is completely independent of the previously anticipated growth.
So this is a lot of economic mambo jumbo. But
(10:14):
what it means is that we could be on the
brink of an economic boom with an economy that grows
fast enough to potentially cover our deficits. Now we've done
it to the past three months already, we've run surpluses people.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
We didn't see that one coming.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
That will especially be true if interest rates come down,
which is a big gift because again the tariffs are inflationary,
so that's not helpful. Of course, we have the Fed
gin together tomorrow on rates. In any event, in six months,
in a week, President Trump has already added nearly one
percent to the US GDP personally through better negotiated trade deals.
(10:50):
So the art of the deal on full display, with
more
Speaker 2 (10:54):
On the way
Hey, thanks for listening, and welcome back to the Brian
Mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Time now for today's top three takeaways.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hey, there happen Tuesday for you and uh well, speaking
of it for you, Trump Trump's sir man, what he is?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Negotiator for you? Vaguely huge?
Speaker 3 (00:23):
What are you?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
What's your preference these days? Jill Bigly Bigly? He didn't
use it anymore. Though there are not many.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Things that Trump changes as a result of people like
mocking him or whatever, I feel like that was one
of them, because if remember, Bigley was a big Lely
thing for Trump in the very early going politically, you know,
campaign trail fifteen sixteen, and I want to say, early
(00:51):
months of his presidency, and then he went away, he
sheltered it. And it's like, I feel that was an
intentional thing. Bring big Lely back, bring the other BBB,
make Bigly great again.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
So, anyway, what President Trump has negotiated for you my
top takeaway today, speaking of big lea, speaking of great things,
here's Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
They agreed for the first time ever to cut all
their tariffs, cut their barriers, and let American businesses and
farmers and ranchers and fishermen finally sell into the European Union,
massive market. This is huge for America.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
It is huge for America. He is absolutely right about that.
What I'm here to tell you, after spending a lot
of time analyzing all this stuff yesterday, is that it's
huge for America. This is huge for you, Bigger than
I even had envisioned. That's what I wanted was actually
(01:55):
saying now today, was trying to understand this. I'm like, okay,
where are we Because took a look at just the
you know, the highlights of the EU trade deal. My
hold on this looks almost too good to be true,
and so almost is.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
And then you put all the trade deals together.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
So I started just getting it all in and then
I worked on it for a while and I came
up with what I'm getting ready to share you share
with you. So the bottom line is this, Waiting through
trade deals is hard. Estimating the impact of trade deals harder.
Figuring out who wins US trade deals. That part became
(02:36):
very easy with Donald Trump as President of the United States.
We win bigly, and what figures to be the most
important wing for trade in either of Trump's presidencies, we
did start off with a bang. As Sunday it brought
that EU Trade deal to completion. It is the biggest
trade deal to date as just the EU piece, because
(02:59):
it's all Theuropean countries not named England. We have a
separate trade deal with them. Eighteen percent of all US
trade in that EU trade deal. So, as I mentioned
yesterday in advance of the president's deadline, Trump has worked
out trade deals with China, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, United Kingdom, Vietnam,
(03:19):
and now the EU, representing approximately forty three percent of
total US trade. Now, it was immediately clear that the
EU trade deal was largely a one sided win. One
of the things I like to do, as kind of
like a jumping off point when I researched these things,
I like to go to the countries that are impacted.
(03:43):
What are they saying about this? How is this plane?
Where they are? And while the BBC is obviously out
of England, they do happen to be the largest news
organization throughout all of Europe. And so, as the BBC
reported yesterday, they identified President Trump as the biggest winner.
(04:04):
They went through winners and losers. President Trump the biggest
winner what they had to say. After promising new trade
deals with dozens of countries, Trump has just landed the
biggest of them all. It looks to most commentators that
the EU has given up more, with incident analysis by
Capital Economics suggesting a zero point five percent not to GDP.
(04:28):
Now that's too, Europe's GDP not ours. There will also
be tens of billions of dollars pouring into US coffers
in import taxes.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Right, So the.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Bottom line is that the EU's pain is our gain here.
But how good have the deals been that have been
done for the US thus far? So, as I mentioned,
spent time with US yesterday, really worked on getting all
the menusia together, estimating and evaluating the tear revenue they'll
be collected new investments into the United States that are
(05:04):
part of these deals, Export gains with foreign markets being
open to US goods, all set by consumer costs because
there is an increase in cost to US for many
of these tariffs. When you put that whole ball of
wax together, the estimated net benefit I was able to
derive from the deals I've already already been done is
(05:27):
two hundred and fifty five billion dollars more for the
US economy annually. Now that's a number, and you're like, Okay,
I guess that sounds cool.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
What does that mean?
Speaker 1 (05:42):
In other words, by the time we factor in the
good and the bad that comes with these trade deals,
which again do include those higher tariffs, and people be.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Very quick in this country.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
Yeah, but the taroft You're right, there are some higher
costs that comes with with some of these tariffs, but
that's all factored in here.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
The positives just so far outweigh those negatives.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Brings me in my second takeaway today, we are coming
out on top in a major, major way.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Florida Congressman Gregg Stuby.
Speaker 4 (06:10):
He's putting America first and Non America last, like you
said he would do on the campaign trail. For far
too long, the European Union has been doing a surplus
and US a deficit on trade, and finally we have
a leader in President Trump who's.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Riding that and bringing that back.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
Yes, So to put this a different way, for every
one percent of trade that takes place, President Trump has
been able to squeeze out an extra five point ninety
three billion dollars net for the US economy.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
All Right, so.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
We've we have new trade deals for forty three percent
of all of our trade partners.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Every one percent that forty.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Three if Trump had done nothing, just the left of
the way it was, we would get five point ninety
three billion dollars less for the US economy out of it.
Every single year. That is how big of a deal
this is. At that pace is kept through the eventual
completion of this process, he'll have added an extra five
(07:22):
hundred and ninety three billion dollars. And again these are
annual numbers, annual residual, in other words, an extra two
percent to the US economy each year. It is hard
to kind of like just put towards the impact of
(07:43):
that just through these negotiations. Here's the final way I'll
frame this for today, because again I really was working
on trying to boil this down in a way that
would make sense, that is easy enough to understand. What
Trump has already done. What he's already done will add
(08:05):
nearly one percent to the US GDP growth annually zero
point nine percent. If he completes his trade deals at
the same pace, Trump's negotiation skills will add two percent
to economic growth per year. By way of comparison. I
think this is what will help drive home what that means.
(08:27):
The CBO's estimated annual growth rate for the US economy
over the next decade and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, well, which,
by the way, how you feel about this today, Joel, Well, I.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Feel pretty good about it based on what you're well, I'm.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Talking about the the the BBB. You know, you're still
down with the BBB or you are kind of like.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Yeah, I mean, it's it's done. We needed it. Okay,
it's done. We needed aspects of it. It's done and
needed to be done.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
I took a look at that that hamburger.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
It's done and needed to be done. It's kind of
like one of those you know, I'll take the good
with the bad. I enjoyed the taste. I mean, that's
essentially the good with the bad. Yeah. Right.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
So, by way of comparison, the CBS estimated annual growth
right for the economy and the One Big Potentially esthetically
Pleasing Act was one point eight percent. One point eight percent.
Trump's trade deals were not at all factored into the
CBO's estimate for the BBB. Okay, So, in other words,
the Trump trade factor alone holds the potential, to my
(09:41):
third takeaway today, grow the US economy faster than the
CBO projected.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Every the next seconde just Trump's the trade.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Is on pace to grow the US economy faster than
the CBO projected, meaning the CBO projected growth would be
on top of that, would be all on top of that.
So this is completely independent of the previously anticipated growth.
So this is a lot of economic mambo jumbo. But
(10:14):
what it means is that we could be on the
brink of an economic boom with an economy that grows
fast enough to potentially cover our deficits. Now we've done
it to the past three months already, we've run surpluses people.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
We didn't see that one coming.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
That will especially be true if interest rates come down,
which is a big gift because again the tariffs are inflationary,
so that's not helpful. Of course, we have the Fed
gin together tomorrow on rates. In any event, in six months,
in a week, President Trump has already added nearly one
percent to the US GDP personally through better negotiated trade deals.
(10:50):
So the art of the deal on full display, with
more
Speaker 2 (10:54):
On the way
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