After Celtics Fail, This is How to Bet NBA Finals

May 30, 2023: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guests Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) from Action Network and PointsBet's Ariel Epstein (@arielepstein). With the Celtics done for the summer, Anderson outlines how to bet an NBA Finals featuring the Nuggets and Heat. The 'Prop Queen' Epstein reveals some fascinating trends when it comes to betting MLB strikeout props, as well as which Red Sox patterns hit far more often than not. Plus, an all baseball People's Parlay.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Wr KO presents Boston's only nightly sportsbetting show, The Gambler, with Adam
Kaufman covering spreads, props, parleys, and more. The Gambler starts now
here's Adam Kaufman, well as theRed Sox limped to the finish over at

(00:21):
Fenway to finish off what inevitably willbe a loss. They're down nine to
three to the Reds, but Iguess give them credit for showing a little
bit of spunk after falling behind eightto nothing and starting to find the bats
just a little bit. Not agreat day really for the bullpen in particular
Brian Boe wasn't bad in his fourinnings, but doesn't really matter. It's

(00:42):
a team effort, despite you know, it being an individual's game largely in
the Red Sox are looking like theyare on the way to falling to two
games over five hundred. They sitat twenty eight and twenty five. I'm
starting with the Red Sox just tolet you know that in the coming weeks
and months we're probably gonna be talkingmore baseball than we wanted, because here

(01:03):
we are. This is The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman. I am Adam Kaufman,
I am not alone. Dan Watkinsis here. Hello, Dan,
Hey, Adam is here. I'mfeeling terrible, EJ. How are you
my stomach? Yeah, that prettymuch sums it up. The NBA Finals
begin on Thursday, and much asI really did talk myself into believing it
was going to happen, the BostonCeltics are not going to be a part

(01:26):
of it. Absolutely embarrassed, humiliatedin Game seven. I'm still sort of
processing all of it, rationalizing allof it. But what sets this show
apart, for better or worse?I guess it depends on you, the
listener, and how you feel andgive us a shout. Six one seven

(01:47):
two six six six eight six eight. Again that is six one seven two
six six six eight six eight.You can get me on Twitter at Adam
M. Kaufman. You can getDan at Dan Watkins Radio. What sets
us apart is that this is notyour standard talk show that is going to
sit here and talk about do youbreak up the core? Does Joe Missoula

(02:07):
need to be fired He's coming back, by the way, Does Jaylen Brown
have to be traded? Who doyou unload? Do you try and get
out from Malcolm Brogden's contract. Ido stuff like that. I just do
what in other places. That isnot what this show is. This is
a betting show, which means weare going to, you know, we'll
discuss it for a couple of minutesjust to sort of attempt to cleanse ourselves

(02:27):
a little bit. But then largelyand certainly with the help of Brandon Anderson,
who is going to join us comingup in about ten to twelve minutes
from Action Network, his debut appearanceon this show. Very much looking forward
to that, we're going to turnour attention to talking a whole lot more
than we want to about the MiamiHeat and of course the Denver Nuggets,
because the NBA Finals are upon usand that will become a focus of this

(02:49):
show. So will the Stanley CupFinal going forward. And grasp to Bruce
Cassidy and the Vegas Golden Nights foradvancing an absolute nightmare series for Bruins fans.
You got the coach they dismissed coachingin the West, you got the
team that eliminated you representing the East, in the Florida Panthers. And again
we are just left and mostly talkedbaseball for the next couple of months.

(03:12):
I don't. I don't have aproblem with baseball baseball very much, but
I wanted a couple more weeks ofbasketball, definitely, And I think the
Red Sox did too, because thisis their first night in the spotlight and
it is not going well at Fenwayright now. Yeah, it's not great.
So you know someone who works insports radio but recently had a kid
and so has been kind of offthe radar the last few days. He

(03:32):
texted me just before the show andsaid, he wrote, coffee your chalk
last night up to Tatum's ankle,or do you think the Seas were outplayed
in the series. You know,I didn't watch the game, bottle duty
and all of that stuff, AndI'm gonna read you what I texted him
back, just because I think I, rather than rambling here as I am
prone to do, I think Iencapsulated my overall thoughts in about as concise

(03:57):
a fashion as I know. How, which is this I said, if
I put it on Tatum's ankle,it's a lame excuse. It's a contributing
reason, of course, but hegot hurt in Game seven. There never
should have been a Game seven.We've talked about that a lot. Dan.
They screwed around early in the series, they were forced to play catch
up the rest of the way.Miami is not the better team, not
even close, but they played harderthroughout and that just matters. And their

(04:20):
role players were killers. Caleb Martinplayed like he stole Jordan's powers in Space
Jam. By the time the Cellshad a chance, whether it was fatigue
or bad luck, there, threepoint shooting was nowhere to be found.
They shot twenty percent from three ingame six and seven hadn't happened all season.
They did it in back to backgames when it mattered most survived it
in game six by attacking the basketand for whatever reason, more passive in

(04:43):
Game seven with Tatum quote a shellof himself. That team isn't built to
win while shooting twenty percent from three. Few are Maybe if Tatum doesn't get
hurt, they do win. ButBrown shot like a poopamoji and turned the
ball over eight times by himself.He was a rally kill. Also,
Missoula deciding to play Brogden was inexcusable. There's a reason he sat in Game

(05:04):
six and barely played in Game five. He is a torn ten in his
shooting arm. He might need surgery. Boston was up three when they put
him in, and he was aminus fifteen in his six minutes. The
game did not end there, butit sucked the life right out of the
building and they never recovered. Theseries was mismanaged, it was poorly played.
Now the Celts have to explore tradingBrown and other complimentary pieces in the

(05:27):
offseason. Missoula will be back.Congrats to the Nuggets. They'll win in
five. Have a great parade.Yeah, I mean, you hit the
nail on the head there. Withthe Celtics. It really comes down to
you report, you sell. Andthe three point shooting just disappeared completely the
last two games. They're lucky thatthey survived whatever night it was Saturday night
or whatever in Game six, butseven for thirty five in game six that's

(05:48):
twenty percent, nine of forty two. Last night in Game seven it's twenty
one point four percent slightly better actually, but sixteen for seventy seven from three
point range the last two games.That's twenty point seven seven percent, just
absolutely terrible. And they really doneed to change up this offense a little

(06:09):
bit that they don't overly rely onthe three pointer. I think going forward,
it's just unfortunately last year and look, part of this is growing and
learning and figuring out who you are, and they never and I'm not this
is not an excuse, this isjust reality. This is part of the
puzzle. They never would have chosento have a different coach this year if

(06:29):
Emaodoka didn't fumble the bag as badas he did. But last year,
their identity was largely defense, andwhile they were if you look at the
metrics, a very good defensive team, one of the best in the league
by the end of the regular season, didn't start that way, but it
finished that way. Their emphasis thisyear was on offense and what affectionately became
known as Missoula Ball. And obviouslythe emphasis of the three didn't start with

(06:51):
Missoula. I mean that goes backto Brad Stevens. That is not new.
But this year and the way theyplayed offensive lead there were some uh,
you know, deviations from what theydid under Rudoka and the philosophy and
players have talked about it since itbecame more of an emphasis on offense than
defense, and the old adage ofyou know, offense wins games, defense

(07:14):
wins championships. It's it's not asaying for some random reason. It's not
just something Dennis Rodman's in the saidin the movie he did with Van dam
You know that there's there's a realityhere to this. And the Celtics their
defense wasn't as sharp as it neededto be in Game seven. It wasn't
bad, truly, it wasn't bad, but it wasn't as sharp as it

(07:35):
needed to be. In the offensewas nowhere to be found. And when
you are a team that as theseyou know, quote unquote lives by the
three, dies by the three.When the three isn't there and you can't
do anything else and you're out thereplaying guys who shouldn't be there, in
particular Brogden anyway, it just ithas a way of totally unraveling. And

(07:59):
we've talked a lot on this showabout the importance of role players, especially
in home games and in the playoffsand throughout this series, and I,
you know, I feel strongly asI felt the entire series, and I
feel the same way as it relatesto the Denver Nuggets. And we'll get
Brandon Anderson's thoughts in a little bitas well, which is you can largely

(08:20):
let Jimmy Butler beat Jimmy Butler.If Butler gets thirty thirty five points,
that's not gonna beat you. IfBam gets fifteen twenty points, that's not
gonna beat you. What is gonnabeat you is when Martin or Vincent or
Struss or Robinson or a combination orHero when he comes back. When those

(08:41):
guys go nuclear, you're screwed.And it's kind of the same thing to
some degree with the Nuggets. Yokichis just gonna be amazing. Even on
a bad night. The guy's gonnahave a triple double. Yo Kich is
gonna be amazing. And Murray moreoften than not, maybe his shooting won't
be tremendous, but you know thevolume will be there and he'll get twenty

(09:03):
to twenty five points. But whatis going to happen with Gordon, with
Porter, with Caldwell, Pope?You know, how are these guys role
players this time of year generally candecide a series. That's exactly what happened
between the Celtics and Miami. Insome ways, it's what happened between the

(09:24):
Nuggets and Lakers, and it's whatI think is going to happen coming up
here, Dan, Yeah, andto bring this back to gambling real quick.
Are just looking at these game onelines. Yoki's triple double line is
even money, which is just shocking. Right now, I can't wait to
get Brandon's thoughts on this. Butbefore I hit, before I hit submit
on my bet slip, because Igot appending right now, I'm just waiting.

(09:46):
I need that final push over theedge there. Red Sox. By
the way, I hope I countedthem out too early. They're rallying,
yeah, tying run of the point. They've got three in two, one
one out, bottom of the nine. They are down nine to six,
Turner driving in the most recent run, So yeah, they ain't dead yet.

(10:07):
And what a story, What away, what a way to turn
the page to baseball season. Ifthe Red Sox on the night after the
Celtics got eliminated, could come frombehind eight nothing and nine to three in
the ninth inning and come back andwin this thing. But still there's some
work to do, and we gota pitching change on the way for the
Reds and we're going to break momentarilyas well. And again, most of

(10:30):
this hour is going to be focusedon basketball or baseball. Actually with Ariel
Epstein. If I didn't mention that, I don't think I did. Joining
us from MLB Network and among otheroutlets, prop Bets USA. She's going
to join us. Brandon Anderson tojoin us in the second hour as will
really kind of dig into the NBAFinals, give you some of the stuff
that Brandon's already on. I've gottena taste of it, more of a

(10:54):
series outlook than specific players. SoDan and I will have plenty of questions,
obviously for the both of them.But uh, it just it sucks,
you know, I I really therewas there was I envisioned opening this
show screaming and yelling about, youknow, Celtics making history as opposed to

(11:15):
become in history, and and Ihate that that we don't have that.
But uh again, it's their fault. So it's you know, they they
little you know, took their theirfoot off the the gas, their their
hands off the rope, whatever thecliche, a little too early in that
series, and by the time itwas, you know, time to play

(11:37):
catch up, they had to literallymake history and fell a little bit short
in doing so. Meiselmann was onstandby, though I'll tell you I heard
from after game six. I wasgetting ready to talk to him after game
seven. He was he was gonnabecome our our default Celtics guest if they
got there. But sadly another yearwithout a championship for the Boss and Winter

(12:00):
teams anyway, and probably not theother two either. That was Dan.
That was kind of our hope.Bet Oh, it sure was. This
spring was all set up to bejust glorious and parade. Yeah it was.
It was like supposed to. Sowhich one do you go to?
You know all that they can theycan they time it to have it on
the same day, Mike, canyou have a joint parade? And that's
just all. It's just gone andforgotten, and now we get to do

(12:22):
the fun game of you know whowho had the bigger choke job? Bummer?
What a bummer? All right,well, let's step aside. We're
gonna get much deeper into baseball.It has been an interesting night on the
Diamond, even beyond the Red Sox. But uh, if anyone listens to
this show, you know that I'mfascinated by props, especially k props,
and you know Dan has often givenout his picks that that revolve around certain

(12:45):
players in total bases. And youknow, there's just so much, I
mean, in any sport, butthere's so much in baseball that you can
bet on. So we're gonna whobetter to talk to than the prop Queen.
We're gonna talk to Ariel Epstein againfrom MLB Network Points bet Usa is
going to join us, coming upmomentarily here on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
w r KO. Sick and tiredof old sports talk and want to get

(13:07):
right into the action. The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman. As you covered,
call us now with six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.
That's six one seven two six sixsix eight six eight. The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman will be right back afterthis. On WRKO, the eight Dead

(13:28):
Yet Red Sox were down nine threeentering the bottom of the ninth inning.
It is nine to eight, twodown, tying run on third base.
Whatever will they do? Let's hopeforce extras in part for my money line
bet on Boston that I wish I'dplace when they were down nine to three.
That would have been a pretty goodnumber, but no, I made
it. Pregame Nevertheless, I wouldlike it to come through, and I

(13:50):
would like my baseball bets to continueto head throughout the night. And I
would also like to talk props.And when you want to talk props,
I have wanted this person on theshow. Well since we began, which
was not that long ago. We'rea new show here on w r k
OH The Gambler with Adam Kffman.We thank you for being here with us.
But who better to talk baseball propswith than someone who goes by the

(14:11):
prop queen. I'm talking about ArielEpstein. You can find her work on
MLB Network. She also does somestuff for NBA TV. She is a
host an analyst for Points bet USAand uh, you know, I when
I went to find Ariel on Twitter, I noticed that she was actually following
me before I was following her,and some I don't even know how that
was possible, but somehow, someway, she has you know, not

(14:35):
held that against me and decided tocome on the show. So Ariel,
how are you hey? Adam,thanks God for having me on. Well,
thank you for coming on. Andwell the Red Sox have lost nine
to eight. They rallied. Itwas close. Sadly, did not come
through, but just sort of yeah, I want to start kind of in
a grander sense, I think thereare our listeners at really ranges from obviously

(15:01):
novices with gambling, mobile betting onlyrecently legalized in Massachusetts in the last few
months, all the way up obviouslyto sharps and people who are betting hundreds,
if not thousands of dollars on adaily basis. When you are targeting
props in baseball, what are youlooking for first? I always look for

(15:22):
strikeout props. Pitching props is themost consistent market in the prop market for
baseball. You get the same pitcherson the mound every five days. The
repertoire usually doesn't change. Most lineupsactually tend to be less or more strikeout
prone throughout seasons. It's the mostconsistent part of the prop game, whereas

(15:43):
in pitching it's about having success,especially starting pitching and hitting. It's a
game of failures. I really don'tbet hitters props very often. I'll bet
them in the playoffs for some keyplayers, the only ones I'll really bet
total basis. Otherwise, I reallyenjoy the pitching market the most. So
you said, it's consistent and Iwill tell you what is consistent for me.

(16:07):
That is being bitten by the hook, either going for you know,
and over and I missed by thehalf, going under, I missed by
the half. I mean I hitsome from time to time, obviously,
but I feel like more often thanknock, it is the hook. So
it's a credit to the oddsmakers.They're putting out a very accurate line.
But how are you avoiding that whenyou when you are you know, identifying
your consistent plays, how are youknowing which way to lean? It's tough,

(16:33):
you like, we all get brittedby the hook. I'm not going
to be one of those crazy handicappersthat comes on and tells you that I
hit at ninety percent. That's actuallyvery inaccurate. I last year, my
best bet did cash at just aboutsixty two percent on the Major League Baseball
season. My best strikeout problem.We check that at MLB network last year

(16:53):
it was somewhere in the sixty percentrange, which is it's great and strike
out were really how got the nameprop Queen because it was the market that
I figured out how to really attackthat. My friend Matt and I we
created a spreadsheet last year which wewill not disclose or show to any odds
makers. They've asked actually for it, and we say absolutely not. Most

(17:15):
of these softwares that people provide onlyshow you the data for an entire pitching
rotation. They don't show you thedata for individual pitchers or individual lineups against
starting pitching. It's encompassing the entireday of pitching. So like, for
example, if I look at fangrafts, it'll be the k rate of a

(17:37):
lineup against righties k rate of alineup against lefties. We're not able to
see how they do against just thosestarting pitchers. Our spreadsheets has limited us
to just the starting pitching, sowe get the exact strikeout rate of lefties
and rights against each individual lineup forjust the starting pitchers. We also keep

(17:59):
track of if those pictures went overor under their kprop that game, so
we get an overall consensus. Forexample, I'm looking at the spreadsheet right
now and I have the first nameis Baltimore, and I could see right
handed starters are ten and twenty threeover under their keyprop this year when facing
the Orioles. Those are the reallycool things we get in spreadsheet. So
how much does obviously that matters.You know, patterns matter. But when

(18:23):
you're looking at a specific pitcher ratherthan the team, a specific pitcher and
you're I don't know, I'm makingup a number, but it's under five
and a half ks, will yougo like, do you care about his
game log at all? Will youlook at it and say, okay,
the under five and a half ks. He's made eight starts this year and

(18:45):
that has come through, you know, six out of the eight times.
Therefore I feel good about this oris it entirely based on the matchup that
day? To you? Entirely basedon matchup? This is a common issue
that I see across a lot ofgamblers on social media. They'll say that
this has hit an eight of thelast ten games. What on earth does

(19:07):
that matter? If each lineup isdifferent, each lineup you'll face teams that
have high kerry. If you faceteams of low k rates, then I
look the way I narrow it down. I look at let's, for example,
talk about I'm watching the Mariners Yankeesgame at the moment. If Logan
Gilbert, who's pitching for the Mariners, is up against a team like the

(19:29):
Yankees who typically has a lower kerrate, So let's see the Yankees this
year. There so against rights,they're averaging just over five strikeouts the game,
which is actually decently high. Againstlefties, the Yankees are averaging three
point eight strikeouts the game against thoselefty starters. That's gonna be a huge
difference for me if I'm if theYankees are facing a righty or a lefty,

(19:52):
that's almost a two strikeout difference basedon righty verse lefty splits. Then
once I get that down, Ilook at, Okay, how did that
kick or do against other teams withwhether it's a high head against their arm
or a low key read against theirarm? How did they do against other
lineups similar to that one in regardsto strikeout rate. That's how I start
to narrow it down to see ifI take the over or the under.

(20:15):
It has nothing to do with recencybuys, everything to do with the matchup.
Are there specific pictures, whether it'sthere unders, their overs, whatever,
it may be just a certain picturethat when their turn comes around every
five days, you prefer to target. Prefer to target. I'm trying to
it's more matchups I try to target. I'll tell you this. There are

(20:37):
certain pictures that I stay far,far far away from like center Strider.
I will not bet anything Sensor Strider. Anytime I see Senor Strider on the
mound, it could be the bestpossible matchup everywhere and under, and I
will stay very far away from it. I also really enjoyed the trend last
year, which it's been okay thisyear. Colorado has been striking out a
bit more this season, However,last year and a trend they sometimes watch

(21:00):
this year, especially for younger pitchers. Lefty is at Coors Field. For
whatever reason, the Rock used totend to strike out less against left us
than they do against righties. Whenevera pitcher comes to Coors it's the altitude.
Pitchers that may not be used tothat or ever have experience in that.
I try to target a lot oflefty starters at Coors Field, especially

(21:21):
if they really haven't had much ofthat experience. So we're going to take
a break, but I want togive you a little bit of homework.
While you're waiting for us to comeback for the next segment. We do
something on this show what is calledthe People's Parlay. It's a pretty self
explanatory. We will at the endof the next segment. Before we let
you go, we will build outa three leg parlay. You will offer
a leg, I will offer aleg, and Dan Watkins, who you've

(21:45):
not heard from yet, he willoffer a leg, and we will build
that parlay for tomorrow. I knowsome you know a lot of places props
aren't out yet. So maybe it'syou're identifying a total or a line or
a run line, whatever it maybe, money line that you're looking at
for a specific game tomorrow. That'sfine, but you know, I don't
want to tell you what to gowith. But whatever it is you're most
comfortable with doesn't even have to bebaseball, by the way, and we

(22:07):
will build out a parlay. Theonly rule there's doesn't matter which book you
use, doesn't matter how much youwager could be a dollar, could be
one hundred dollars. The only rulearials that you have to play it with
us so that tomorrow, even thoughwe won't be together, we can all
sweat the thing together and hope itpays off. I'm good, all right,
perfect, So that's your assignment,all of our assignments. Really.
During the break, we will comeback more from Ariel Epstein, the prop

(22:30):
Queen here on The Gambler with AdamKaufman. Need e vent a bad bets?
You've come to the right place.Tell us about it. Call six
one seven two six six six eightsix six one seven two six six six
eight six eight, or if you'relistening on the iHeartRadio app, use the
tuckback button. The Gambler with AdamKaufman will be right back after this.

(22:55):
On WRKO Red Sox Lass tonight,that's a bummer. We are talking baseball
with Ariel Epstein from Points Bent MLBNetwork, among other stops. Ariel,
we were just talking about your strategywhen it comes to attacking K props in
particular, what about with the RedSox. Is there anything and maybe it's

(23:17):
certain pitchers in terms of K props, or maybe it's trends. You know,
I often say on this show andhave been really since the first day
of the season, that if there'sone thing that I am playing on a
almost nightly basis with Boston, itis going over on the total runs for
that game. It is something thathits far more often than not. It's
it feels like virtual free money.It's I don't know, sixty something percent

(23:41):
of the time it hits, ifnot more frequently. Is there something with
Boston with any of the pitchers thatyou like to go after? With pitchers
against the Red Sox, typically yougo under the strikeout prop against Boston.
Boston really is a lower Kyria team. Their bottom ten in the league against
right and lefties, averaging about justover four strikeouts the game against both arms.

(24:04):
In fact, this year against theRed Sox, righties fourteen and twenty
one over under their kayprop, leftysix and eleven over under their KAY prop.
A lot of these pitchers tend togo under on their strikeout props when
facing the Red Sox. To yourpoint, on the Red Sox with runs
being scored as well, the RedSox on their team total when they're playing

(24:26):
at home this year is one ofthe most profitable in baseball. The only
one that's made more money on theirteam total over at home is the Raise.
You're up just under twelve units.If you've got that on the Raise,
you're up eleven units on the seasonat nineteen and seven over under.
If you've got Red Sox team totalovers at home at Fenway, see you
know we're in their home take advantagetomorrow we're learning some things here, folks.

(24:51):
What about I guess I'm just sortof thinking about trends in general.
And I know the Braves right nowit's it's one nothing. They're in Oakland
bottom four, but for while thereand some of it has attributed to the
competition. Some that is just theA's being the a's, you know,
it's people want to obviously bet againstOakland on a nightly basis, but not
just that. It's it's the runline against Oakland that you know. It

(25:14):
feels like I don't know that itdoesn't the numbers to back this up,
you would. It feels like itcaches a whole heck of a lot of
the time. Is this a betthat you like to place basically every night,
just attacking whoever is playing on therun line against Oakland? No,
because odds are you're getting a veryjuice line, especially if you're going to
have a team laying runs at thehome team. I don't really like if

(25:37):
Oakland's on the road and you're gonnaget a home team laying runs, you
don't get that extra bat like Oaklanddoes on the top of the nine on
the road. Sometimes I could doit, except I'm not likely to lay
juice on a run line with aroad team. Just seems to go against
a lot of my being. Thenumbers do tell you that you are are

(26:00):
profitable. If you're betting against Oakland, for example, on the run line
this year, the Athletics or twentyone and thirty five year down about seventeen
units on the season. And ifyou were to bet against Oakland all the
time and in every game on themoney line, this isn't so Basically,
if you were to bet on Oakland, you would be losing the most money
in baseball. If you bet Oaklandevery game this year, you lose the

(26:22):
most money. That doesn't always meanthat you're making the money on the other
side, because you probably are layingheavy juice on a money line. For
example, if you're up against Oaklandand you're minus two fifty, you have
to put up a lot of money, and yeah, maybe it wins,
but I just don't like to putup two hundred and fifty dollars to win

(26:44):
one hundred. It's just not theway I like to play the game.
So where's your cutoff or And thisdoesn't have to be a you know,
end all be all obviously depending onthe day and how you're feeling the matchup
and whatever else. But do youtry and not exceed I don't know,
minus one fifty or something like that. Minus one fifty is my cutoff.
Maybe if I'm absolutely in love witha strikeout prop or a run line,

(27:07):
I'll lay minus one fifty five.Usually I don't, so it's just never
worth it. In baseball. It'snot like football, where football is once
or three times a week and youenjoy that in the NFL. In baseball
it's a marathon, not a sprint. Literally, you have every day.
I just really keep in the backof my mind, hey you have tomorrow

(27:30):
again. You don't need to layone fifty five in order to have some
fun. You can find a betteredge somewhere, and some days you just
can't worth it. That's the hardestpart in working in media, as you
would know, Adam. The hardestpart is that my job is gambling and
sports betting in the media. Everyday I have to go to work with
picks. I will say it onmy podcast, Don't love the Slate today,

(27:52):
don't love this pick today? Isaid it about this Mariners game.
The way the fund move, theway the numbers looked, I said,
Seattle looks like the right side.However, Seattle scares me. The Yankees
scare me. I it was agame, I said, I was staying
away from. It's just something thatalerted me. And sometimes the best move

(28:12):
is to stay away. I giveout these fishy lines all the time where
I spot reverse line movement that makesme not really like a team. However,
if let's say, for example,just happened to me a few nights
ago with Oakland and Atlanta, theline moved plainly in favor of Oakland overnight
despite ninety percent of action on Atlanta. A lot of numbers indicated that one

(28:33):
of the I think it was theAtlanta Oh, it was the game yesterday
with Michael Soroka returning. I said, okay, it makes sense. He's
coming off season ending surgery multiple times. First orsin twenty twenty, anderstand how
they might be back in Oakland asthe home team with Blackburn, who actually
had experienced last year. Instead ofbetting on the game, I stay away
from the game kind of thing whereI bet the over, but I won't

(28:56):
necessarily lay minus to fifty on Atlantabecause I just people, Hey, stay
away from this game. Don't putAtlanta in your ten leg parlay? Not
worth it today? What is yourview since you brought that up, I
wasn't even thinking about it, butobviously it's a popular thing that people like
to do in baseball. If notfor fun then anything else. But what
is your view of parlays in baseball? Like, do you like to do

(29:18):
money line parlays? Do you liketo do k prop parlays? Or is
it to you just such a Idon't know, such a wild card that
you say, yeah, I'm justgonna do straight bets. I hate parlays
in baseball, absolutely hate them.It is the worst sport for me to
bet any parlay in. I understanddoing it in football, and it's in

(29:44):
teasers in football. I cannot giveyou a reason to bet parleys in baseball.
Now. Maybe maybe maybe two legparlays. I wanted to pay out
as close to even money as possible, though I will not be laying more
than minus one ten is one twentyon a two leg parlay, and I
have to be really, really reallyconfident in both those sides. Most likely,

(30:07):
Adam, I could probably count onthree fingers how many times I might
have done that in my life andparlaying baseball games, I always say to
people, I would just much rathergo game by game because if one leg
loses, I'm going to be annoyed. See it sounds like you are like
most betters in this way. Thatan issue that I really have a problem
with on a personal level, whichis I am just more And maybe it's

(30:30):
just because I like to follow awhole bunch of different things, but I
am more apt to place a lotof bets, like I mean, dozens
of bets in a given day thatare you know, either smaller or smaller
as compared to you know what Iif I was put in the same amount
of money down across you know,three bets for the entire day that like,

(30:51):
these are the three that I havethe most conviction in. And that's
all I'm playing tonight, That's allI'm watching. It sounds like you fall
more into that ladder category. Howdo I break away? How do I
stop betting on everything? Is reallywhat I'm saying. You have to remember
that tomorrow is a new day,and that the beauty of baseball is we
had it every single day. Lookat the ones. I know it's hard

(31:15):
sometimes to pick out which ones youlike the best. To me, I'm
actually super picky. I have tofigure out which ones I like. I
say, Okay, Ariel, it'spick three bets. Place those today.
What are your favorites? And alot of the times too, because baseball
is such a flukey sport. MaybeI'll go to units on a side,

(31:38):
one unit on a prop. Thisway you, especially with baseball prop sometimes
it's flukier. You could go andjust lay, or you could go bet
less money on props, more moneyon side, or bet less money on
the side that you're not as competentin more money on the side you are
competent in. Just I will keepyour money in smart ways. If you
feel you can't eliminate, which betsdo you like best? All right,

(32:00):
well, I know you hate baseballparlays, but nevertheless, you know,
we have a show thing here,which is the people's parlay. And I
have a feeling just based on whatis going on in the world right now
and what is happening specifically on Wednesday, all three of us are probably going
to go somewhere in you know,on the diamond, somewhere in the realm
of that sport. So Dan sayhello, by the way, Hi Ariell,

(32:22):
thanks for joining us, Hi Dan. Let's let's let's build a parley
for the people. Let's try andwin some money tomorrow. So Ariel,
I gave your homework assignment just goinginto the break. So what what are
you what right now? Because Iknow a lot changes in the next I
don't know twenty Well, actually,we've got early baseball tomorrow. So however

(32:44):
many hours, what is a favoritebet that you have right now? I
currently see the Padre's left hander BlakeSnell at five and a half for a
strikeout pop. I'd bet the underon his tape prop against lefty starters this
year, I mean six and nineover under their key of prop, averaging
just over four strikeouts the game.Snell on the road hasn't been as dominant

(33:07):
as he is at home in thelast few years he did. The only
thing that scares me is that hedid just have six against Washington. However,
against your lovely Red Stock, hedid have four or five strikeouts going
under this. For most of theseason this year, whenever he's gone up
against a low key rate team onthe road, he's gone under it,
and every game except that one againstWashington and his last start under on Blake's

(33:30):
now five and a half kays.All right, Dan for the parlay tomorrow,
I'm going to go with the TampaBay Rays money line. The Rays
are on the verge of being sweptby the Cubs, which I just cannot
fathom happening. The Rays have notbeen swept yet this year. They have
not lost three games in a rowyet this year. So I don't think
that's going to happen tomorrow. Sogive me Tampa. Was Zach Efflyn on

(33:52):
the mound two. I'll bounce back, all right. And as I alluded
to, there are a lot ofdirections I could go in. There are
a lot of things that I liketomorrow, but I think I think I
am going to go. I'm gonnago. You know what, I like
to live dangerously. I'm going thebraves on the run line. I am.

(34:14):
I've I've I've been burned by thisbefore, but it's what I'm going
to do. And so we've We'vegot Blake's and we'll see if they even
do it tonight. Yeah I needit tonight as well, but I like
it. And it's nice and earlytoo, so we'll get an answer.
Early, which is always fun.So Blake's new under five and a half
strikeouts raise on the money line andthe Braves on the run line in Oakland.

(34:37):
I mean, I may as wellpreach what I or you know,
whatever the practice what I preach aftertalking about attacking Oakland all the time,
and that three leg parlay at leastwhere I'm looking, puts me right around
plus four fifty. So let usall on our own time place the bet
and uh, I hope it cashesfor all of us area. I hope

(34:57):
so too. It would be prettyembarrassing if I make my debut and it
doesn't hit. You know what,you wouldn't be the first. But I
will say we've we've got pretty goodsuccess. We're in a bit of a
runt right now, but overall,if people were just playing the straits,
we are well over five hundred.But the parlays we were in this pattern
of missing by a leg, whichwe need to correct. But tomorrow,

(35:20):
maybe tomorrow is the day. Sothank you so much for hopping on with
us. I am certain I willbug you again as the summer moves along,
when we are really focused on baseball. Look forward to having you back
on the show of course, Adam, Dan, thank you very much for
having me. I hope the informationhelps you make some money. Tons,
I can't wait to play, youknow, Red Sox home team total overs,

(35:43):
that's and and unders for pitchers goingagainst Boston. That's the stuff that
I'm looking at. Thank you somuch, Ario, I really appreciate it.
Thanks guys, Aria Epstein again,points bet and MLB Network other places
as well. I learned a lotthere, Dan. Oh yeah, Tons,
he had so much information. I'mgonna have to go back through and
listen to the podcasting because I couldn't. I could not keep up taking the

(36:05):
notes. Only so much, Yeah, only so much. We can shot
down. All right, we aregoing to step aside. We will come
back. We'll wrap up this hour, start to transition back to basketball.
NBA Finals are coming, whether welike it or not, because the Celtics
are not involved. Brandon Anderson fromThe Action Network is going to join us
in the next hour about a halfhour from now. Stay with us here.
It's The Gambler with Adam Kaufman onw r KO. Sick and tired

(36:27):
of old sports talk and want toget right into the action. The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman. As you covered, call us now with six one seven
two six six six eight six eight. That's six one seven two six six
six eight six eight. The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman will be right back after
this on WRKO. We are backon The Gambler with Adam Kaufman talking hoops,

(36:53):
maybe somewhat reluctantly. We love basketball. We're just still a little well
butt heard for lack of a betterword. Over the Celtics lost an opportunity
to go to the NBA Finals goingby the wayside after force and seven games
saw so close. We are joinedfor the first time on this show,
very excited about it by Brandon Andersoncovers the NBA NFL as well, so

(37:14):
I'm sure down the line we'll bugthem about football works over at the Action
Network and we love the Action Networkguys from there on this show all the
time. Brandon, how are you, I'm good? Thanks for having me
on. Guys. I know,not the fun, most fun time in
the world to talk basketball and Bostonthese days, but you know, we
gotta move forward to watch the NBAFinals. I'm curious and this first just

(37:37):
little this has nothing to do withbetting. But this is much more of
a if I was talking to AdamSilver or I was talking to you know,
an exact over at ABC about ratings. Do you just as a fan
wish that we had Celtics Lakers likethat story? You know, two iconic
NBA franchises. Are you happier thanDenver's in it? Regardless because Yokich and

(38:02):
new Blood and you know, firsttime in the finals they've never won,
or you know, all the wayto like that's kind of the middle ground,
regardless of who came out of theEast or if it was Boston.
Now, obviously you've got Nuggets heat, which is not I would expect going
to be a ratings bonanza. Butyou obviously have two really different teams,

(38:23):
but but hard working teams. AndI think it will be a fun series
to watch, removing my Celtics bias, but it's certainly not probably what the
league was hoping for. Yeah,you know, I honestly I think that's
a failing in the league. I'lljust say it. This should be an
awesome finals that everyone should be excitedfor. I understand Celtics Lakers and the

(38:47):
history East Coast, West Coast.It's Lebron. I get all of that,
like I understand, like I getpaid for the stuff. I understand
where the money comes from, right, and we all understand and where how
this works. But just made thepicture here. On one hand, he
got the Juggernaut one seed who hasmowed down everybody and Denver I think is

(39:09):
as fun as just what anyone inthe entire league to watch. Get Nicole
Yokich, who absolutely should be asmarketable and as interesting as any player,
any character the MGA can offer.The man should be, in my opinion,
a three time reigning MVP, becausefor the last two months of playoffs

(39:29):
look like by far the best playerin the world. He's fun. He
throws passes that he's creating that noone can even imagine, and he's just
doing it routinely every quarterer like thisis a fun team. You got Jamal
Murray, breakout guard all Star tobe should have been already. You got
Michael Porter juniors like six foot elevendude looking like Kevin Durant out you're knocking

(39:52):
down shop. That's that team.And then again we're in boss to understand.
You got the crazy long shot underDug Cinderella story, right, you
have the second eighth seed ever whoknocked off a one seed and a two
seed, took out Yannis, tookout Tatum, even beat the next who

(40:13):
cares whatever, hooray the next they'regone, Like you have the ultimate Cinderella
story here. I know it sucksright now, but if Miami wins the
title somehow, that is like anall time American pro sports champion run Like
I don't even know this would be, and this would be the strangest champion

(40:34):
in NBA history. It has tobe. And that's not nothing like this.
This would be you know, akin to like I was saying earlier.
I remember maybe about a decade agoin March Madness, Butler made the
finals, and Butler was like eightseed, made the final four, and
we came a Gordon Hayward like bankedthree pointer from half court away from beating

(40:57):
Duke in the finals. That's whatthe would be as if that shot fell,
and let's be honest, melted theinternet because it would have. That's
what this would be. Accept It'seven crazier because imagine now if Baller had
to win seven game series all ofthat tournament, not just a knockout game,
that's what's happening. So look,look, this is about the finals.
I would preferred I wanted to seeDenver. I'm happy to watch Denver.

(41:22):
I want to see them play Bostonor I would like to have seen
them play Joel and Bead and getthe Yokichen Bead angle, or play Milwaukee.
Like you want to see the teamsof the top. But if this
is not a finals that the leaguecan make money off of and market,
that is not on the players andteams. We have the ultimate Cinderella story
and the best player in the world, and like if you just subbed in

(41:45):
Lebron has the best player in theworld and his awesome team and then the
crazy Cinderella whoever that was. That'san easy story to sell. That's the
story here. I think we shouldbe excited as fans to watch this game
and watch this series. I personallywill get into it. I think it's
the Nuggets. I think the Nuggetsmake quick work of it. But I

(42:07):
kind of thought that might be thecase with the Heat and other series two
and here we are. That's thewhole point. That's why it's fun,
it's sports well and so building onthat, we do have to take a
break in a minute, then we'llkeep going with this. But building on
that, as you said, theHeat, who lost their very first play
in tournament game by the way,before obviously ultimately advancing. They take out
I know Janis was hurt and misstimein that series, but they take out

(42:30):
the number one seed Bucks. Theywere underdogs against the Knicks win that series.
Obviously should have gotten steamrolled in theeyes of many by the Celtics.
Push them and you know, goup three nothing, almost squander it,
but do prevail in a blowout fashionin a Game seven in Boston, no
less, and now once again vastdisrespected underdogs in the NBA Finals Denver.

(42:54):
You know, I'm looking at minusfive hundred to win the series, the
Heat at plus three sixty. Youlook at Game one in Denver, I
know, but the Heat nine pointdogs. It's minus three ninety on the
money line for Denver. What doyou attribute the disrespect for the Heat too?

(43:15):
Yeah. Disrespect is the thing thatwe do in the media, right
We have to talk about the levelrespect and we know that of course,
Jimmy Butler is listening to all ofthe shows and playing all the respect cards,
right Like of course, that's whatyou have to do if you're in
the eighth seed here and you madeit all the way. I think we
have to live in two realities atthe same time. On the one hand,

(43:37):
let's just be honest. The heatgot lucky in Game seven. Jason
Tatum, who should have been thebest player on the court, rolled as
ankle on the first play. That'sbad luck for Boston. It's a good
luck for Miami. That changes everything. The entire rest of the game.
Everything is different. We don't knowhow it plays out if that doesn't happen.

(44:00):
And in the first round Jannis getshurt as well. Again, Miami
won. Miami gets full credit.They took care of business. Boston shouldn't
go down three nothing if they don'twant to risk the Potatum ankle injury.
All that stuff matters. It isnot disrespectful to point out, hey,
Miami, you shot forty five percenterabout her eight times in a regular season

(44:23):
game the entire year, and thenyou did it four times against Boston in
one series. That's not disrespect that'sjust saying that's the context of saying,
look, you won, it's great, but we can't count as better as
we have to take the context intoaccountant and say, we don't know if
it's going to keep on happening,and the numbers suggested it probably won't.

(44:46):
Now we set it up to theMiami series, Miami Milwaukee Series, and
they've won eight more games since then. But maybe there's just some weird heat
culture voodoo magic thing and maybe they'remaking us all look crazy. But I
don't think it's disrespect. I thinkit's context. The context says that Miami
was the eight seed for a reason. Those eighty two games matter, and

(45:09):
that amount of data compared to thesmaller sample of playoffs we got with the
injuries, that stuff matters. Thatthere's more recent stuff matters more, but
it's not the only thing. SoI don't think it's disrespect. I know
that's not fun. It's more funto talk about disrespect, But I think
the reality is that I can startthe better team. So it's hard to

(45:31):
look at the series and not justsee one team that's a lot better.
And you know why, because it'sa one versus eighth seed. We see
these every year twice in the firstround, and we don't even really freeview
the series because we know how they'resupposed to go. But it's basketball.
Miami gets their chances, they've earnedit and they absolutely could win those things.
All right, we're gonna be backwith Brandon Anderson from Action Network talk

(45:53):
about how to specifically bet this seriesbet game one. Stay tune and be
right back. You're w RKO sickand tired of bold sports talk and want
to get right into the action TheGambler with Adam Kaufman. As you covered,
call us now with six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.

(46:13):
That's six one seven two six sixsix eight six eight. The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman will be right backafter this on WRKO. Brandon Anderson from
Action Network back with us. You'reon The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. So
BA, we're talking NBA Finals,Nuggets Heat. Game one is on Thursday.

(46:34):
We've still got some time. Obviously, people can wait out lines and
movement and whatever they want to do. Tell me, where do we find
value if we're looking at bet thisseries, because it's certainly not on the
money line, and it's not onthe series. You know just who's gonna
win. So are you looking atspecific series spreads? Are you looking at
you know, the game one spread. Where are you going? Yeah,

(46:57):
I gotta to you here. I'mon the Nuggets on this series, and
I heard you guys talking just beforeit came on about the series spread,
the minus one and a half.I'm lamenting too. I was on that
Boston minus one and a half atlant in the first round minus two and
a half. I'm still not overthat dumb series. That team should have
been swept in three games. Ican't believe they took your money that way.
We should have known in hindsight whenthey didn't take care of that.

(47:21):
But that's another story. I likedenver In. I'll play them a few
ways. I like to do whatI call an escalator bat, where I
take the bet i'm most certain aboutand kind of make that the base of
my beat, and then I goa little more and a little more with
a little smaller bet each time.So I'm gonna take Denver and minus one
and a half on the series,so that's effectively denver In six or less,

(47:44):
and then i'll take minus two anda half, that's plus one forty
five, that's five or less.And I'll play this a little bit on
the suite if you get it somewhereabove five hundred. I see a plus
six hundred on the market. Sothat's basically Nuggets in six or Nuggets in
five five, or Nuggets in thefour, and my bests getting a little
bit less each time up there hopingto hit the whole thing. So I

(48:07):
just think Denver is the much muchbetter team here. I think, especially
offensively, this is going to bea real problem for Miami. Denver's effective
field of percentage was second in theNBA. Miami's is bottom five in the
regular season defensively, and Denver's offensehonestly is getting better in the playoffs.
They are right now have one hundredand nineteen point seven offensive rating for the

(48:30):
entire playoffs. That would be anall time NBA record for a regular season.
That is higher than the number oneoffense this year, and higher than
they have during the year. Theyhave cut their turnovers, which is I
think is really important this series.Miami's offense is really not great. We've
seen a lot of that. Eitherthe threes fall otherwise it gets a little
ugly for a while. They needturnovers. They need the fours turnovers and

(48:53):
create some easy offense and Denver wasturning over a lot in the regular season.
They actually were bottom ten and turnovers. They have the least turnovers of
any team right now in the postseason, so I think that's an advantage of
Miami relies on that they might notget the heat. Also, of course,
love to get those threes up.Denver is allowing under ten to threes

(49:15):
per game in the playoffs right now, and that is the strength. All
year. They only allowed the thirdfewest threies of any team and the third
lowest percentage of any team. SoI think the things that Miami wants to
do Denver specifically is a good matchupfour. And then, of course,
as you guys were talking about theMaame Nicola Yokich Denver, Miami doesn't have

(49:37):
an answer for him. Sam Adebayois a great defender in certain situations and
in the right scheme, but he'snot big enough. He has not faired
well against Yokich in the past.Yoki is really just kind of taken his
lunch money most of the time.So I think this goes short. And
I think what's interesting on these seriesprices Often, you know, even not

(50:00):
as gamblers, we do the alllike oh, Denver and sixth right,
like you pick the team in howmany games? And I think we have
a tendency to do the thing whereokay, Denver and seven and what that
means is, well, I likeDenver, but only a little bit.
The Denver and six is I likeDenver a little bit more, and Denver
and five is like, oh,okay, well you really like them,

(50:22):
you must be really sure. Idon't think that's really the right way to
do it, because these games arehome in a way, and I think
actually Denver and five is, bymy number, is about twice as likely
as Denver and six. I thinkhome court matters a lot in this series.
Denver is undefeated at home. They'vebeen forty two and seven for the

(50:44):
entire season now in Miami was seventeenand twenty four on the row in the
regular season. They had a negativeNUT rating during the year. Obviously they've
gone the job done on the roadlately. We won't get back into that.
But Denver, I think at homeand in elevation against the Miami team
that looks like they're running empty rightnow and they don't have any time to

(51:04):
catch their breast, any time toprep. But I think that's huge advantage
for Denver in game one. InGame two, that Miami suddenly has to
face this very, very different,more efficient looking offense. Boston just kind
of start chucking threes when things doesn'tdon't go out for them. Denver doesn't
do that. Denver runs through Yokich, the guy who's the best player in

(51:27):
the world at breaking down a defense. And we saw even yesterday, I
thought the Celtics were gonna get awayearly in a good way. They were
running great offense. They're getting awide open corner threes, the shots just
in the fall and then the teamkind of fell off after that. But
if Denver gets those looks, they'regonna keep getting them, and they're gonna
hit those corner threes because it's gonnabe MPJ and it's gonna be continuous called

(51:51):
well pope and that sort of thing. So I think home court matters a
lot. In Denver's home in Gamefive in elevation against an increased, tired
on Miami team. So I likeDenver in five. That would be my
pick outright, But I'm kind of, you know, we set the respect
thing. I'm giving the Miami somerespect. I'll take the minus one and
a half. I honestly don't thinkMammi should take a game in the series,

(52:15):
but I think we could have saidthat in the previous series as well.
I'll give them a game, andthe minus one point five is my
respect card. I'll give them evena chance to get two, but I
think Denver takes care of the seriessooner rather than later. I liked them
Game one as well, even withthe inflated spread. My colleague Raheem Palmer
used to work with me at ActionNetwork now at the Ringer. Raheen Palmer

(52:37):
had a great stat on a study. Did teams coming off of Game seven
the following Game one are thirty threeand fifty three in that game thirty eight
percent straight up? And they alsoare thirty six and fifty in the series
forty two percent. And look,I hate to keep going back to Boston.
We literally just saw this happened lastround, right the guys were tired.

(53:00):
Miami is still Game one on theroad. Miamie got the series after
getting that early lead. Now theshoes on the other foot, though,
I think Miami might have won thebattle but lost the war over the last
week they got to the finals.They did the thing. But now they're
the tired team. They're the injuredteam that Jimmy Baller doesn't look right.
Vincent is still playing hurt heroes outOladipo's out. I don't know if they

(53:24):
have enough bodies. So I likeDenver Game one. I'll play them there.
I love on the series. Sodoes that give you the conviction that
not only Denver wins, but Denvercovers? I mean you're gonna take the
eight and a half nine points,depending on the book, because right now
the handle the bets. Depending onwhere you look, it's it's pretty split.
I mean it's pretty close to fiftyfifty. Yeah, I'll play the

(53:45):
cover. I grab the minus eightat open. I don't mind the eight
and a half or nine. Look, we've seen the trend all postseason where
the team that wins tend to cover. That's been an overwhelming trend so far
this year. Traditionally, in thisspot where I feel as good as I
do, I'm pretty aggressive as abetter I would normally look for an alternate

(54:06):
line here and say, okay again, I'll do an escalator, give me
the eight and a half. Butwhat can I get for Denver by fifteen
or by twenty. I won't dothat here because I do think this could
be a slow series. Both theseteams will love to really slow it down.
I don't know if I trust eithera team to get out and run
too much right away. And Miamidoesn't play too many blowouts. Miami tends

(54:29):
typically to play a lot of closegames, and again telling me something you
know already from having just watched it, but they just try to hang around.
I don't know they hang around here. I think Denver, you know,
kind of hits them with a punchearly on and that Miami doesn't necessarily
recover. But I don't mind layingthe eight and a half or nine if
you need to obviously get the bestline that you can. But I think

(54:51):
Denver ultimately has a good first halfwhere they've been a great team or early.
Miami hasn't been a good first halfteam, and I think they just
kind of take control, and youknow, they know exactly what's happening here.
They know Miami has won all threeroad game one so far, something
no team in history has done.But they just played a team like that.
That was the Lakers. The Lakerswon a road game one both of

(55:14):
their two series and got to bein the front the whole series. Denver
did not let them do that,and when they did, and suddenly that's
a totally different ball game as theunderdog when you're chasing, which is what
the underdog does usually on the road, and I think Denver knows what's coming.
I'm not worried about the rust factor. This is a team that's played
together for years, Yokich. There'sno rust. The man knows where the

(55:37):
guys are going to be, andI think they'll be ready and make a
statement right away. We've only gotabout a minute left with you before we
got to wrap up. But whatare some of your favorite game one props
that you're targeting right now. Ilike my Comporter Junior to have a big
series, so I'm looking for threesovers for him. He's going to get

(55:57):
some of those corner three open looks. I like his rebounding over. He's
averaging eight point for the playoffs andusually he's more like six and a half.
So those are both furies long props. And I'm playing as well.
I'm looking for three pointers for differentguys. Michael Porter Junior. I mentioned
Duncan Robinson. He just gets shotup so fast when he is out there,

(56:19):
So I think he's an interesting one. And otherwise I'm most looking for
series long stuff and just kind ofplaying Denver waiting in on a props to
see where we kind of pop fromthere? Do you think our guy Dan
here he's he said one of theprops that that he really likes is Yoki
at a triple double at even money. And it's what's so funny, is
it? It just speaks to hisgreatness obviously, But I mean, I'm

(56:40):
I'm looking at a book right,I'm seeing minus one twenty for Yoki to
have a triple double Like that's that'sinsane, a triple double that you can't
even get even money on it.But uh, it's just again it speaks
to who he is. Is thata play that that interests you? I
think I'll wait on it and learna little bit. I worry as a

(57:00):
Yokich better. I think if Iwere Miami, what I would try to
do is turn Yokich into a scoreand try to take away some of the
passing lanes and angles. Easier saidthan done. But I don't think he
wants to be the score. Hecan be. We've seen it, but
I think that that's if I'm Miami. I'm trying to say, Okay,
we're gonna stay home. We're gonnatry to get Jamal and get Michael Porter

(57:22):
Junior out of this game. Youbeat us yourself, Yokichi, and I
think you probably will if it comesto that, but I'm a little concerned
about the assists. I'm looking atassist unders for Yokich. I probably won't
play it right away, but Iwould not bet the triple double yet for
that reason. Brandon, thanks somuch, a lot of great stuff,
and I'm sure we will bug youagain during the finals. That sounds good.

(57:43):
I hope you guys are able toenjoy the finals. And hey,
we got the best player in theworld and the best in their Ella story
we've seen. I hope it's agood one. Oh, we are huge
Nuggets fans around here. I canpromise you that Brandon Anderson from the Action
Network, thanks again. And ifyou missed anything, a lot of terrific
info from Brandon that'll be obviously availablein full on our podcast. We will

(58:04):
step aside. When we come back, it'll be time to put this show
to bed. Need a venta bad, bad bets. You've come to the
right place. Tell us about it. Call six one seven two six,
six six eight six at six oneseven two six, six, six eight
six eight, or if you're listeningon the iHeartRadio app, use the talkback
button. The Gambler with Adam Kaufmanwill be right back after this on wr

(58:30):
KO. Wow, it's time toput this show to bed with my pillow.
Maybe the show is being put tobed. I'm not going to bed.
I got the series finale of tedLasso following this show. That's what
I got coming up. So moresports, I suppose. Man, I

(58:54):
can't believe we don't have the Celtics. Ah still still than kind of?
I mean, are you really thatsurprised? Though not surprised like so I
had said on you know, onTwitter or something that all shocked that it
ended, and people said like,really, are you like kind of like

(59:17):
you just did, and I kindof had to clarify or more specifically make
my point, which was I'm notsurprised or shocked that they lost. I
am floored by the way they lost. Never would have envisioned Game seven to
be that uncompetitive, or them toshoot twenty percent from three for the second

(59:39):
straight game. I I, youknow, I know Tatum's injury played into
some of that stuff, but Ijust yeah, that the out the outcome,
the overall outcome did not shock me. But the way it happened,
yes, that very much did.Yeah. I mean after Saturday night when
they won shooting twenty percent from threepoint range. After that game, I

(59:59):
was saying, Okay, well,they can't shoot any worse. It encouraged
me more about games and I waslike, Okay, so they're gonna,
you know, they're gonna heat upMonday night and I have a big game
seven. But nope, they actuallydid shoot better believe it or not slightly
as Yeah, when I ran overthe numbers earlier, but yeah, sixteen
for seventy seven from three point rangeand over the last two games. Just

(01:00:21):
live and die by the three.And that's what happens when you go cold.
And just the other big takeaway forme, Adam, is that Jalen
Brown just missed his golden opportunity toprove that he can be at number one
in this league. Yeah, totallyfumbled it. He turned it over.
It was his ninth turnover of thegame. Yeah, and the most costly
potentially. Yeah, all right,in a couple of minutes we have left

(01:00:43):
looking ahead to tomorrow Wednesday, whatare some of your favorite bets beyond the
People's Parlay. Well, I meanit's going back to the People's parlay for
once. Can the Atlanta Braves liketake care of business against Oakland because this
game is just it's not going welltonight either. It's one to one in
the bottom of the ninth right nowas we're wrapping things up. Oakland has
a chance to walk the Braves offand take two games from Atlanta, one
of the best teams in baseball.I mean sports go to extra sports woo.

(01:01:09):
Yeah. But Mitch Keller's on themount for the Pirates tomorrow. I'm
curious to see what his prop isgoing to be against the Giants. Keller
struck out eight or more in hislast six starts, so that's definitely got
me interested and intrigued. Other thanthat, like I was talking about,
maybe the Red Sox kind of figuredsomething out here and that their offense is
going to start clicking Devers, especiallyVerdugo with the curious night off tonight.

(01:01:30):
Nobody really had an answer for that, other than they wanted to give him
another day off after they had anoff day as a team yesterday, so
he should be back in the lineuptomorrow. Socks team over. As Ariel
was mentioning, mentioning it's five anda half for tomorrow, I like that
a lot. The Red Sox toget to six runs against Luke Weaver and
the big bounce back start from JamesPaxton hopefully as well. Um, and

(01:01:52):
then yeah, we'll see what theYankees. Aaron Judge is heating up as
well too. He's homered in backto back games here. Maybe he can
make it three in a row.Yeah, I think it is three,
isn't it is? Three now straight? Yeah? Two last night? So
guys a machine yep. I meanyou mentioned the Braves. Obviously, braves
run line, braves money line.I'm not as resistant as Ariel to to

(01:02:13):
you know, laying the juice whatever. Like I just if it leads to
money on the other end, itcan be a marginal game, I might
currently I'm okay with that. Um, you mentioned the Pirates game. The
over is a low total. Sevenand a half over is very intriguing in
that game. Also, Uh,looking at the Padres money line at the
moment, Dodgers run line is obviouslygoing to be a popular play. I

(01:02:38):
don't envision that changing Yankees Mariners isanother low seven and a half run over
that is worth exploring there, Yeah, James Kirby though, Yeah, Astro
is at home. On the runline, Diamondbacks run line, money line,
you can get you know, somedegree of value on that money line
at minus one seventy five compared toyou know, you might have expected to

(01:03:00):
be like two hundred. So therethere's a little bit. If you're looking
for something closer to even money Padresminus one twenty on the money line is
one as well. So again Isay it every night, I'd like to
see how some of this stuff movesovernight, and don't place these bets until
a little bit closer to the action. But just some of the early things

(01:03:22):
that we're watching for. And obviouslythe People's parley we gave out earlier on
the show. Check it out onthe podcast if you missed it. Tomorrow's
to day, That's what I've decided. Tomorrow's the day we get off the
Schneide straight bets, hit Parlay hits, round Robin hits. It's a win
for everybody. But thanks to BrandonAnderson, awesome stuff. Aeril Epstein tremendous

(01:03:42):
stuff as well. Here we've gota very special treat I'm looking forward to
tomorrow night that we will tell youabout tomorrow night. Thanks to EJ.
Pacheco, our producer, Dan,Thank you sir, of course, Dan
Watkins. I'm Adam Kaufman. Thisis The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Check
out the podcast again. It isavailable wherever you get your podcast rate if
you subscribe, and thanks for beingwith us. We'll talk to you again

(01:04:02):
in uh well tomorrow. For thebest night sleep you've ever had, go
to Mikepillow dot com and use thecode Gambler. You've been listening to The
Gambler with Adam Kaufman on six eightyw r KO