ANOTHER PEOPLE’S PARLAY HIT!! Plus Picks, Picks, and MORE Football Picks

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
The gambler starts. Now here's AdamKaufman. What is going on? Everybody?
I Am not Adam Kaufman. I'mDan Watkins. I'm filling in for
Adam tonight. Adam taking the nightoff. I don't know, maybe to
enjoy this just wonderful Thursday night footballgame that we got going on between the
Panthers and the Bears. Some ramificationsfor the Patriots here if you're watching,

(00:22):
I think, if what is it, Brian, If we get like a
Carolina win somehow, the Pats couldpotentially move into like the position for the
number one pick in the draft isa yeah. I mean, if the
Cardinals and Panthers won this weekend,there'd be a bunch of teams the two
wins. But assuming the Patriots lose, which they probably will, yeah,
well, you know what happens whenyou assume. Anyways, we will talk
about the Patriots a little bit lateron, but we're coming to you live

(00:45):
on this Thursday night, November ninth, from our wonderful WRKO studios. It's
a very frigid night. And whenI you know, get these frigid nights,
I feel it's football weather, Brian, And that's what we're gonna do
tonight. It's business as usual.It's a Thursday. If you've been with
us, you know, if you'rea regular listener, you know what we
do on Thursdays. We go aroundthe country in college football. We give
you best bets, we give youpicks, we give you liens for some

(01:07):
of the biggest matchups in college footballfor the week Week eleven. By the
way, it's crazy how fast that'sgoing, but November does tend to slow
things down a little bit. It'sa very long month in college football.
And then we will also go aroundthe NFL and we will do the same
thing. A best bet, apick, a lean alike, a lock,
whatever you want to call it,whether it's a prop, a side,
a total for all NFL games thisweekend, Week ten in the NFL,

(01:30):
as I mentioned earlier, kicking offwith the Panthers and Bears. Carolina
up ten to nine right now inthe third quarter. But here's what we
got going on. So John mckaeckneyof rodewire dot com, he's been on
multiple times with us throughout this collegefootball season. He will join us for
our college football segment. We'll talkabout a lot of things with John like
Michigan, are they actually elite orhave they been posing as an elite team

(01:52):
for the past few months? LaneKiffin ready to throw the kitchen sink at
the Dogs this weekend, a bigshowdown in the sec ole miss taken on
and Athens, a rare night gameat Sanford Stadium two. By the way,
those don't come around too often.Usc They got rid of their defensive
coordinator, Alex Grinch. Is thatgonna make a difference? You know the
Trojans. Are they gonna play inspiredon defense this week? We'll find that

(02:13):
out with John as they head upto Eugene to take on Bow and the
Ducks. And then, you know, to quote Joe Dirt, you just
got to keep on keeping on Andthat's what Florida State and Washington are trying
to do. The Huskies the knowles. They both got conference matchups this week,
with Miami heading up to Tallahassee andthen Utah heading up to Seattle to
play Washington. And then'll also findout from John how he sees this playoff

(02:34):
race shaking out with just a fewmore glorious Saturdays left to go in the
college football season. Then will Hillfrom Beeson and Fox Sports is going to
join us to go game by gameacross the NFL, and we're gonna ask
him if you have to be atrue sick Oh, just stick in the
head to find any enjoyment in watchingthis Patriots Colts game Sunday morning, San
Francisco. You know they're coming inoff bye week. Have they fixed their

(02:55):
issues as they've lost three straight headinginto that by the Bengals, it looks
like they're firing in all cylinders,but some injury issues there in Cincinnati.
Now, could they possibly get pickedoff by the Texans This weekend, we
got the Browns and Ravens battling itout in Baltimore. Can Cleveland's defense stop
Lamar in Company for a change thistime around? And then of course we
have the Kyler Murray making his debutthis week against the Falcons. The Cardinals

(03:19):
getting both Kyler and possibly James Connorback this week. So big night for
the Bruins in the NHL the Besthey won five to two over the Islanders.
Charlie Coyle first career hat trick.Brian, I didn't see any odds
for Charlie Coyle to have a hattietonight, But if you wanted to maybe,
you know, throw a couple ofshekels on Charlie Coyle that have two
goals that would have paid out atplus forty seven hundred. A monster night

(03:42):
for Charlie Coyle and another win forthe Bruins eleven one and one, and
they're gonna end the night tied forthe best record or most points anyways in
the NHL with the Vegas Gold ofthe Knights. Of course. So a
lot of things that we're sweating tonightas we come on the air, of
course, are people's parlay, whichI think, what do we give that
up to? Last night, Brian, it was well over seven hundred.
Do you have the number off thetop with the boost? Yeah? This

(04:02):
morning I placed it on my own. It was like plus eight twenty.
I think it was wow. Okay, so that was with the fifty percent
boost, So it was like midto high five hundreds. You gotta tit
straight. Got to take advantage ofthose boosts. As Donta Foreman just scored
for the Bears, the Bears justtook the lead. But anyway, so
here's what we're sweating out in thisgame. Adam's leg, DJ Moore receiving

(04:24):
yard, that's already hit. Itwas over fifty two and a half.
He's at fifty eight, so wegot one down my leg. Bryce Young
pass attempts thirty two and a halfwas the number. He's at seventeen at
the moment. But now they're trailinghere in the second half, so feeling
pretty good. I think we're trendingthere. A good thing we did not
go with Bryce Young's yards because forsome reason they just just keep airing it
out way down the field instead ofdumping it off to the running backs.

(04:45):
You got chubahubber back there. AndI bring that up because Mike Randall was
our guest last night for this people'sparlay. He gave us over fourteen and
a half for Cuba's receiving yards.He's at zero right now, not even
targeted yet here in This was almosthalfway through the third quarter in the game.
So hopefully Carolina can change things upa little bit, maybe dump down
to your running backs, you know, once or twice here and get us
some yards because we really need that. Then when it comes to bankroll repairs,

(05:10):
Adams got he's got one of twolegs down, so he gave us
the Bruins money line. The Bees, as I mentioned, they won five
to two over the Islanders, andthen we have Edmonton sixty minutes on the
money line. They are taking onthe pathetic San Jose Sharks, who I
was alerted to earlier have actually wona hockey game this year. Brian,
Did you know that? Only becauseI had the score up as I was
leaving here the other night. Oh? Very good. Okay, so there

(05:31):
we go. That's who's watching Sharkshockey people. But we will be keeping
an eye on that tonight as we'resweating out that bank role repair and need
Edmonton to win in regulation that willpay out at plus one thirty two for
us my bank role repair. Well, we got one leg down the Rhode
Island Rams, my Rhode Island Rams. They took down Fairfield tonight ninety three
to eighty, So one leg down. Now we are waiting in this Mexico
City NBA game. We need Pabloben Carrol Bencherol, however you say his

(05:55):
last name to get us eighteen points. Same thing with Trey Young. Those
guys are b Benchero I think isat seven right now, and we got
Trey Young is at three or no, he's up to five, So look
at that. We are cruising towardsthat. That game is still in the
first quarter, by the way,so we're looking really good there. Hopefully
we can hit those bank roller repairs. We're gonna give you three more bank
roll repairs before the end of theshow tonight. We will do that in
about thirty five forty minutes, rightaround there after John Joyce joins us for

(06:19):
college football, and then we willgive you two more people's parlays for the
weekend. Six straits go along withthat. It's we are just locked and
loaded, Brian. It is justa glorious weekend. Cannot wait to get
into all this college football, allthis NFL action. What is one thing
this weekend though, that you arelooking forward to? Definitely not the standalone

(06:41):
games because those are just all gonnabe terrible, tough. But I am
interested in the Bengals Texans game thatthat game definitely interests me. After that
monster performance from CJ. Stryde lastweek, I want to see if he
can do it back to back againstthe a legit team and a legit defense
that has great coaching on the defenseside of the ball. Yeah, it's
going to be an interesting one.So I want to see how that matchup

(07:01):
plays out for sure. Definitely alsoanother like on the flip side of that
too. We got Tampa Bay,who he lit up last week. They're
getting another rookie quarterback this week,Will Levis and Tennessee. So I'm actually
very interested to see interested to seewhat Will Levis is going to do against
that defense this week. Yeah,that team is, They're built to stuff.
They're on their passing defenses garbage,very good, very good. All

(07:23):
right, so we are going tostep aside. If you're watching this Thursday
night game, just just mute it. Al Michaels is pretty miserable at this
point. You don't want to hearhim. Turn us up as we're going
to be giving you out plenty ofbets, picks everything for the weekend,
getting you ready for just more football. So stick around. We will be
back with John mccacney of Roda Wireto break down this great college football slate
for week eleven. All right,it's the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adam

(07:50):
is out tonight. Dan Watkins issteering the ship here as we are about
to take a deep dive into collegefootball Week eleven and there's no one better
to do it, and especially duringthe month of November. It is the
month of chaos in the college ranks. And let's bring in from Rotal Wire,
John mccackney. John, I wasall ready to kind of just talk,
you know, a little bit aboutyour thoughts about what the committee did

(08:11):
this week this week which is reallynot much, but how you're feeling going
in here. But we have adeveloping situation going on in Louisville, Kentucky
right now. So I'm just gonnaask you. This is Virginia, the
grim reaper of the acc well thathad has been worn by many this season,
it feels like, but it seemslike they might have the crown right

(08:33):
now. I believe Anthony Calandria hasgotten into the game and when he goes
in, chaos is afoot, Chaosis close close by. He's a freshman
who has immediately you know, thisis back in September, was drawing comparisons
to one Rex Grossman, who's youknow, kind of famous m was ethic.

(08:56):
I'm throwing it deep in. Calandriadefinitely channels that. And you know,
as good as Louisville has been thisyear, in year one under year
under Jeff Brahm. It doesn't shockme that a slip up could potentially happen
to them, and so this isit's surprising that Virginia is the one.

(09:16):
But at the same time, Virginiahas risen up a couple of times this
season and gotten it done and knockedsome teams off. So yeah, things
are definitely getting interesting right there.Yeah, it could just be a sign
of things to come this weekend,as it probably is going to be chaos
filled. But I felt like wecame into this week and you know,
fittingly, it's week eleven. Ifelt like we had eleven teams that are

(09:37):
actually competing for those four spots rightnow. A couple of them are going
to get knocked off here as wedo have some top ten matchups Louisville,
they could be getting knocked off tonight. We'll keep you updated on that.
But John, let's let's head rightto Happy Valley. Let's let's talk about
big noon. It's number three Michiganat number ten, Penn State, Penn
State five and a half. They'regetting five and a half points at home.

(09:58):
The total in this one for fiveand a half. Depending on where
you look, they're gonna get anothershot here to take down one of the
big boys in the Big Ten eistand get back into that championship conversation.
Personally, I'm hoping they do,and then I'm hoping that Michigan beats Ohio
State in a couple weeks so wejust have pure chaos in the Big Ten
and that they might have to likepick a name out of the hat,
which I think is just hysterical ifwe get to that point. But anyways,

(10:20):
last year Michigan won this game inthe Big House forty one seventeen.
They ran for four hundred and eighteenyards. Donovan Edwards and Blake Korum each
had one hundred and sixty five individually. Penn State, though they come into
this game this year with the bestrun defense in the Power five, a
lounge just sixty yards per game inMichigan. Their offense this year, John's
it's more centered around JJ McCarthy inthat pass game, as much as they

(10:43):
probably don't want to admit that.As we head into this one, here
are we finally going to find outif Michigan's elite or if they've just been
posing as an elite team, youknow, playing a soft schedule here.
What are your thoughts here on thisone? No, exactly. It's unbelievable
the way that the schedule has setup for them and broken for them too,
you know, with a bunch oftheir Big Ten competition to this point

(11:05):
being down or buried down, andin the case of Michigan State, so
this really is their first test.I mean every other game that has been
a blowout. I know Purdue coveredlast week, but that was still a
twenty eight point victory for Blue.So this is the first real test,
right And Penn State, in theircase, has had played a much tougher

(11:28):
schedule. They went to Columbus,didn't go great. Looked like Drew Aller
was a little bit deer in headlightsin that one. But he's turned it
around, turned it on over theselast few weeks, really diced up Maryland
last week. I thought that washis best game of the season so far,
relative to the competition. Everything likethat. I would have preferred if

(11:50):
Penn State was running the ball aswell as I was expected coming into the
season. I thought that Nick Singletonand k Tron Allen were comprising that the
best backfield duo in college football thathasn't necessarily been the case. Maybe that's
a bit of a problem with theiroffensive line more than those two individually.
But to your point, Michigan won'tbe able to simply bully them with the

(12:11):
run that they did like they didlast year where they had the two guys
go for over one poin fifty.Edwards is obviously kind of falling off this
very mysteriously this year, but Ithink this is the week. You know,
we're talking about the Heisman periphery atthis point. But if blake Korm
gets fed, which he very wellcould, and if he ends up with
with one hundred yards and three touchdownsers, I think is completely in the wrong

(12:35):
possibility. I think Michigan is goingto or they've been kind of keeping the
lid on the restrictor plate on blakeKorm throughout the course of the season.
I think a season high is liketwenty one carries. He was a guy
that was getting twenty five carries everysingle week until he got hurt against Illinois
last year. So I'm looking forhim to be a huge factor in this
game, maybe take some of thatpressure off of McCarthy. I think it's

(12:56):
been you know, prudent of Michiganto see what McCarthy has and see what
they can do with with that passinggame. But I think when they have
their drouthers that they want to beable to run the football. And I
know it's a very tough matchup forthem against his Penn State defense, but
I do think that they're going to, by one way or the other,
be able to have some successful inthe ground in Penn State. I just

(13:18):
even though they're they're at home andAlur has been playing better, I'm dubious
on him still. I think thattheir their past catching talent is a little
bit suspect, to say the least. They don't have a Jahan Dotson anymore,
Parker Washington anything like that, inmy opinion, So if they fall
behind and it needs to go onDrew Oler's shoulders, I am skeptical that

(13:41):
they're going to be able to getthat done. So in my heart of
hearts, I know this is goingto be a close game. I don't
think that Michigan's going to baptize themthe way that they have over the last
couple of years. But I dolike Michigan to cover this one and continue
rolling. As much as I wouldlove that chaos angle that that you're mentioning
there. If Penn State were towin and Michigan we're to beat Ohio State

(14:01):
and we get the true round robinof chaos. But give me twenty seven
to twenty Michigan. So you dolike the over in this game, though,
I do, all right, verygood. Sixty four percent of the
public agrees with you. By theway, John, there on Michigan two.
And here's a little betting nugget foryou guys. Penn State seven and
twenty one against the spread against topfive teams over the past thirty years that

(14:22):
has not been friendly there in HappyValley. Let's head out West eighteen,
number eighteen, Utah at number five. Washington, the Husky is favored by
nine and a half points at home. Here the total it's anywhere from forty
nine and a half to fifty anda half, depending on where you look.
John, Washington's one of the teamsthat I kind of gave the Joe
Dirt motto to this week. Theyjust got to keep on keeping on,

(14:43):
right, They just got to keepon surviving. Now they get Utah at
home in Seattle. It's a seriesthat's been lobsided through the years. By
the way, the Huskies are thirteenand two lifetime against the Utes. They
haven't played since twenty twenty. Utahthey bounced back from their beatdown at the
hands of Oregon by putting a beatdownon Arizona State last week fifty five to
three. We know that ninety ninepercent of the time Kyle Whittingham has his

(15:03):
teams ready to go to war onSaturdays, But I'm skeptical that they have
the firepower to keep up with Pennixand the number one passing offense in the
country this weekend, right exactly,So Utah is going to have to play
their brand of football, and obviouslyhaving the precedent of them getting boat raced
by Oregon at home on game dayno less a few weeks back, certainly,

(15:24):
you know, makes you press pausea little bit on liking Utah in
this spot. But you know,Washington, they're a complete team. I'll
give them that. I think thatDylan Johnson was really impressive last week.
So it's not like they only lieon Michael Pennix to get it done through
the air with those you know,impressive receivers, so they can do anything

(15:46):
that they want on offense. ButI think that this is just a lot
of points to be trusting. IfI'm back in Utah, I prefer it
to be over that key number,or at least get to ten. But
so nine and o'hok is a bitdicey if you're thinking about Utah. But
I do think that Utah by kindof by virtue of what happened to them
against Oregon. It might have beenthat galvanizing moment. We've seen it time

(16:08):
and time again where they slip upat one point in the regular season,
then they just kind of go ona war path the rest of the way,
all the way to the Pac twelvechampionship game, and they know what's
at stake here for Washington. AndI know Washington there's what's at stake for
them of course as well, andthey have the Michael Pennix Heisman case to
keep preserving as well. But Ithink Utah gives them a really good game

(16:30):
here. I'm not sure that Iwould pick Utah to win this one outright,
but it wouldn't surprise me if youif Washington has to pull this out
at the last minute with a fieldgoal. I really do like Utah against
the number in this one. Yeah, no, I think a lot of
people agree with you too here,John Utah four and one against the spread
against teams with a winning record thisseason. So, as we mentioned,
Kyle Winningham always has his team readyto go at least ninety nine percent of

(16:52):
the time against I guess Oregon isthat one percent on the other side there.
But we have a couple of greatSEC matchups this weekend and SEC East
battle number thirteen Tennessee at number fourteenMiszoo, Missouri. They're getting one and
a half points here at home,the total sitting at fifty seven and a
half the balls. They hit theroad looking to set up a virtual SEC
championship playing game next Saturday in Knoxvilleagainst Georgia. But they got to take

(17:18):
take care of business against this reallygood Missouri team first, Missoo. They
come home after well letting go ofthe rope against Georgia Nathens. They were
up thirteen to ten in the thirdquarter of that game, but that injury
to Luther Burden was where it feltlike that game swung towards the Dog's direction.
Burden he's questionable for Saturday. Wereally haven't heard anything from Missouri's coach
yet as whether he's going to playor not. Sounds like they're waiting for
tomorrow at practice to find out,as he had hasn't practiced much this week,

(17:41):
he's been rather limited. But JohnLuther Burden, I feel like he's
the X factor here in this one. How do you feel about this game?
Yeah, he absolutely is. Andbeing in the trenches on college football
coverage over the years, anytime thatsomeone is limited in practice over the course
of a week going into a game, you got to be real skeptical that

(18:03):
they're that they are even going tobe active or be be particularly effective.
It's just it. That's just kindof how it goes. So I'm basically
handicapping this game as if Burdon willbe something of a non factor. I
didn't think that the Missouri passing gamereally wet up a ton after Burton went
out. I thought Theowez had areally nice game. I know Mukie Cooper

(18:26):
had a big catch down the middleto set up something for Missouri as well.
So I don't think that they're completelybereft of talent at the receiver position
if Burdon is unable to go,But is it enough to put them over
Tennessee. That that's the real question. I think Tennessee's offense has been rolling
a little bit better of late,and I think Tennessee's defense is nasty.

(18:48):
It really is one of the best, not just in the SEC, but
but in the country as a whole, very tough against the run. So
I don't really expect Cody Schrader onMissouri to to be able to to generate
much. The X factor really couldbe Brady Cook in his legs. If
he's able to, you know,extend drives by picking up easy first downs
when there's space, that could reallygive Missouri a puncher's chance. This is

(19:14):
tricky. Tennessee on the road isa bit of a different discussion, I
feel like versus them at home,obviously the number would be a lot different
at that point. I think Tennesseewins this one close to It's just the
numbers one and a half right now. I do like what I do,
like the balls to cover this one. But this is definitely not like one
of my strongest bets of the week. But by extension that I do think

(19:37):
it's one of the best, kindof like, we don't know what's going
to happen anything could happen in thisin this game, in this particular setup.
But I do like the balls.If I had to, sixty five
percent of the public agrees with youon Tennessee, I think you can even
get it out of flat one.Right now when it comes to the total
here at fifty seven, fifty sevenand a half, seventy eight percent of
the public is on the over.These two offenses are good. As you

(19:57):
were talking about, how do youlean here, that's pretty high, So
I'm gonna go with the with theunder here, I think the under would
be my strongest lean from this game. I think the defense is at Tennessee
obviously gets plenty of credit for theway that they played defense, but I
was definitely impressed by by the waythat Missouri kept a lid on Georgia's offense

(20:17):
on the road last week. SoI think that they're gonna they're gonna come
up ready. And I think alsothat they know if Burden's out, they're
gonna have to pull a little bitextra weight in this game. So I
think that this is going to berather low scoring relative to the number.
All right, very good. Sohere's what we're gonna do. We're gonna
step aside and take a break realquick, and then when we come back,
we got a couple more games totalk about with John, and then
we're gonna build out our first people'sparlay of the weekend. John has done

(20:41):
his job in the past. Ithink either Adam or myself has let us
let him down. So we're gonnado our part to make up for that
this week. But stick around becausethis Thursday night football game is just very
frustrating. It's not helping us outone bit. So we will be back
in just a few minutes. It'sthe Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adam is
off tonight. I'm Dan waht Upkins. Joining me tonight is John mccacney from

(21:03):
rodowire dot com. Of course heis a Georgia alumni, and that's where
we're heading. We're heading to Athens, John, uh. So, here
we go number nine Ole miss atnumber two Georgia. The dogs are favored
by ten and a half points hereat home. But before we get into
the breakdown, I'm gonna ask youthis question. Does Kirby Smart actually have
like some some legit no one believesin us, or like disrespectful bulletin board
material this year with the committee havingthe audacity to put them at number two,

(21:29):
right, I mean, it waskind of unbelievable coming out of the
TCU game last year for like allthe all the players, like every single
one of them was like, yeah, people just didn't believe in us,
you know, and you know wehad to show him. Uh no,
Like even as a Georgia alum,it's like, not come on, like
that's that's preposterous. But clearly thatthat that seems to suggest that that Kirby

(21:52):
really does have have the program,you know, in lockstep. But I
don't know if this team is isquite as good as it was a year
ago. But when you're at thatlevel like them, or Alabama or Ohio
State, you need to find anysort of motivational edge that you can.
In the committee continuing to rank OhioState ahead of them might be just enough

(22:12):
to let them play with a littlebit of extra edge here. But yeah,
to the larger point it is,I'll say it's hooey to say that
Georgia can play the non respectsless cards. So Almos comes into this one after
hanging on against Texas A and Mlast weekend. Jackson Darth. Though he

(22:33):
bawled out three hundred and eighty sevenyards passing against the Aggies, he's going
to have to do that again.He's also going to have to get his
legs working this week. And ifthe Rebels are going to pull off a
shock or an ath in Saturday Night. And I mentioned Saturday Night because it's
the first true night game between theHedges in September of twenty twenty one.
And I believe someone that's on thisshow right now is going to be in
attendance Georgia. They just keep poweringthrough, navigating any roadbumps without brock Bowers

(22:56):
right now, Dejon Edwards running verywell. Carson beck is also coming into
his own. How do we betthis game? John? This one I
continue to go back and forth onand I think Jackson Dart, like you
alluded to there, it really isthe key to this game, because I
think if there's one thing they cankind of put a Georgia defense, a

(23:17):
Kirby Smart defense on its heels alittle bit safe for you know, Bryce
Young Alabama team a couple of yearsago, when they had all these future
first round second round receivers around BryceYoung. It's a quarterback that can make
plays with his legs and not justthat, but but also be able to
punish you through the air. AndI think Jackson Dark definitely exemplifies that.

(23:38):
I think that he's someone that he'stough as nails. We've seen time and
time again. I was talking aboutit with the Mazoo breakdown, that bratdy
Cook would would just go ahead andpick up the first down with his legs
and keep drives moving Formazoo. Andwe saw it even in Auburn Peyton Thorn
of all people running all over thedogs. That game was at Auburn.

(24:02):
Weird stuff happens there. But I'daggress people have been pointing to Mississippi's home
road splits on offense. I'm notsure that it matters here. They're gonna
get up to this game, andI do think that Jackson Dart is the
key. If if George is ableto slow him, if they're able to
force some turnovers, if they're ableto to keep him in the pocket and

(24:22):
uh, you know, limited limitthe ability for him to escape and get
downfield, then I think Georgia hasthis one rather comfortably because I don't think
that Mississippi's defense is really going tohave a lot of answers unless they're able
to turn Georgia over. So itall comes down to how Jackson Dard plays.
If he plays well, almost winthis game out right. So at

(24:42):
this stage, even with those splitsin mind, where we're all missing is
noticeably at least thus far. Butsamples can be tricky in college football.
They're so small. I do havede Leen Ole missed it to cover that
this number. I just think thatJackson Dart is a different lea level quarterback
that Georgia has faced this year withthe elements and degrees or abilities that I

(25:06):
was talking about just now, SoI think that there's that in mind.
I don't think that quinch On Jenkinshas a huge game here, but I
really like the receiving corps that LinkKiffin was able to build through the transfer
portal. It's going to keep Georgiaon their heels all sixty minutes. They're
not going to relent. So Ido like almost to cover this one.
But of course you could also envisiona world where Georgia goes bully mode,

(25:29):
similar to what we saw last yearwhen when Tennessee came in and people were
scoffing at the number that was postedat the time, and Tennessee was the
number one country according to the CFPCommittee at the time, and Georgia just
kind of like both constricted them sothat that could certainly happen as well.
But as it stands, I thinkthat this one is going to be closer
than the spread indicates, and Ido think it's going to be a single

(25:52):
digit win for Georgia. Look atthat. I heard a dog barking in
the doll. That was so timely. That was perfect. That was awesome.
That was great. Yeah. Sothis is actually the fewest points the
ten and a half that Georgia hasbeen favored by this season. They're four
to ten and one against the spread, though, guys, in their last
fifteen games is a home favorite.I think I've found an interesting way to
bet this game, John, Iwant your thoughts on it. I think

(26:12):
Lane Kiffin is gonna come out swingingand throw the kitchen swing sink at Kirby
and the dogs here. I'm thinkingabout taking ole Miss plus three and a
half in the first quarter. Thisis a number that Georgia has really struggled
to cover this season. They've onlycovered it once in an SEC game this
year. That was against Kentucky.Every other SEC game they've either been tied
or losing in most of them.I think that's a really interesting angle,

(26:37):
because yeah, but like you said, I mean even last week min Missouri
comes out swinging, gets a touchdownearly on in that game. Georgia of
course responds, but you know whatdid you say? It was minus three
or plus three plus three and ahalf three and a half of the first
quarter. I there's your angles,sir. I like that. All right,
very good. I have a couplemore games I want to get to
before we get to the parlays.So let's kind of wrap up at fire

(27:00):
here. USC is at number six. Oregon the Ducks. They're laying fourteen
and a half at home. Thetotal here is seventy three and a half.
We know USC they just go overeverything. But Alex Grinch is no
longer the defensive coordinator in southern California? Is that going to make a difference?
John, Are we going to seesome fight out of the Trojans defensively
this weekend? Or is bo Nicksjust going to roll right through them?

(27:21):
Yeah? I don't think that there'sanything that can help this USC defense now
that they need to learn how totackle. I don't think they can do
that in just a matter of days. So I think that there's going to
be score galore in this one.But I do think that maybe just because
of the three losses that USC hassuffered of late, that they, you
know, are just doubting this USCteam as a whole. Caleb Williams,

(27:44):
if not to the three losses,would be kind of like the runaway Heisman
because of the numbers. They arepreposterous, and I expect that offense to
hold serve When you're looking at fourteenand a half, that's a big cushion
for Caleb Williams. So I likeUSC. Here all right, one more
here we got a battle of theSunshine State. Miami's at number four Florida
State. The Knoles are fourteen pointfavorites at home. There are still a
couple of fourteen's on the board.There are a few fourteen and a halfs

(28:07):
as well. I think that's apretty key difference here. Florida State's defense
playing really well. They haven't givenup more than twenty points since the cleansing
game, and Miami has just beenbad on the road they're own to in
conference? How do you see thisone shaken out? For whatever reason,
I just have a feeling that Miamikeeps this one close. Maybe it's because
I'm just not completely sold on FloridaState right now, but either way,

(28:30):
I think that Miami finds a wayto stay within this number. Again,
if you can get it at fourteenand a half. I love Miami in
the spot. I think this isthe one spot where maybe Florida State really
has to sweat this season. Allright, So let's build out the people's
parlay. We are very very quicklyclosing in on hitting last nights, which
is well over plus seven hundred.We just need five more passing attempts from

(28:52):
Bryce Young and we're going to hitthat baby. So John, let's start
it off. What's your favorite playof the weekend. I like Nebraska plus
one and a half at home,so at some places, I believe at
FanDuel it's plus two two and ahalf. Actually, I really like Nebraska
in the spot. They've played alot better than they were in September.
And Maryland just like every season islike that meme of the well drawn horse

(29:15):
towards the hind end. And thenjust it's like a stick figure at the
front. That's basically the inverse ofwhat Maryland seasons always look like. They
start out great and then they justfall apart down the stretch in the meat
of conference play. Going to Nebraska, I hate the idea of Maryland winning
this game. I just don't seeit happening. Nebraska's tougher, Tolly Tagubailoa

(29:37):
doesn't have it. Give me Nebraska, all right, So lock in Nebraska
plus two and a half on FanDuelBrian did what is our first mail in
ballot from one Adam Kaufman have tosay he's going with Michigan minus four and
a half for the biggest game ofthe weekend against Penn State. All right,
Michigan minus four and a half.And that brings up to my pick.

(30:00):
I hate to do this to you, buddy, because you're on air
with us right now, but I'mgonna fade you on your Miami pick.
I'm laying the fourteen with the Knowles. I just think Florida State. I
think they're playing just so much betterball right now than Miami is. And
they have a cupcake next week sandwichin between their two rivalry games with Miami
and Florida, so they're not goingto overlook Miami this weekend. Florida State
also knows that they can't screw upbecause of what's going on in Louisville right

(30:21):
now, that game's tied to twentyfour, that they're the ACC's only hope
to get into the playoff here thisseason. So I'm gonna lay the fourteen
with Florida State Saturday afternoon if Ican find that game here somewhere, Brian,
if you have the number at all, yes, five ninety six on
Caesars right now. So I'm workingthrough a five ninety six on Caesars and

(30:44):
Fandels actually hanging a thirteen and ahalf right now. And I really like
that. So if you put thosethree legs together, Nebraska plus two and
a half, Michigan minus four anda half, Florida State minus thirteen and
a half, that brings us aplus five forty nine. People's parlay.
I like it, And you knowwhat, why don't juice it up a
little bit? Give me, giveme the Nebraska money line. Oh okay,

(31:07):
all right, so let's build that. Let's let's let's get this up
over the five ninety six. Plump. They are plus one twelve at FanDuel.
That is very nice, and that'sgoing to bring us to a plus
six twenty one on FANDUL. I'mfeeling pretty good about that, fellas.
All right, very good, John. Any other games you want to talk
about here before we let you goanyone on upset watch or just any SICCO

(31:29):
games that you want to talk about. I know there's another historic under an
in an Iowa game this week.Yes, and as this tradition, we
got to like the under in thatone. Bill Connolly, the maven of
college football metrics, likes the overin that one, which always makes you
a little bit nervous. But youknow, for the people we want,
we want the unders when we watchIowa, or give me the under there

(31:49):
if if you're going for something alittle bit funk here, Memphis minus eleven
against Charlotte, I think Memphis crushesthem. I just don't think that Charlotte
really has it in ment is,you know, legitimately good group of five
teams. So I think Memphis coversthat number. What about that Arizona Colorado
game? I mean Deon's he's he'sfighting tooth and nail to try to get
Bowl eligibility. There only got acouple more chances left to pick up what

(32:12):
what does he need two more wins? Yes he does, so he's got
to have one of these. Andit's a tougher stretch that down the road
here. Arizona's been absolutely nails againstthe number this year. But if you
can get Colorado at ten and ahalf, with which I believe you can
at DraftKings, I do like Coloradoand this one they're at home. I
think that this is the spot wherethe trend maybe breaks for Arizona. I

(32:34):
think there's something crazy like eight tozero and one against the spread this year.
I think that this is the spot. Colorada's defense is the key here
and they've been playing a little bitbetter of late. So give me the
buffs. All right, Very good, John, Thanks so much, buddy.
Enjoy yourself Saturday night. It's goingto be a fun one there down
down at Sanford Stadium. Yeah.I think it should be an all right
time, looking forward to it.Just a good time, slightly good time.

(32:58):
All right. So that's John mccagnedwiredot com. That was our college
football preview for Week eleven. Whenwe come back, we are going to
build out some bankroll repairs. Ourbank roll repairs for tonight are trending very
nicely right now. Just need acouple more legs to hit with a lot
of time left on the clock,so we will be back in just a
few minutes. It's time for yourbankroll repair, Howard. My today's collision.

(33:22):
It's the Gambler with Adam Kaufman.Adam is out tonight. I'm Dan
Watkins filling in, so bankroll repairsguys tonight, Let's see how we're doing.
We're trending pretty nicely right now.Adam's got one leg down that was
the Bruins on the money line.The other one he needs the Edmonton Oilers
to win in regulation. That gameright now is currently scoreless between the Oilers

(33:43):
and the Sharks out in San Jose. Just the first period though, so
plenty of time my bankroll repair.I got two legs down the Rhode Island
Rams they won tonight, and thenwe Trey Young, who is just going
off tonight. Brian thirty three pointsat had halftime in this game against the
Orlando Magic. We only needed eighteenfrom him, so that hit, and
then we just need Polo benchero Tohave eighteen points as well. He's at

(34:04):
ten at halftime, so we're lookingpretty good. But we're gonna give out
three more bank roll repairs. Brian, start us off, all right,
We're gonna start Saturday talking about oneof the games we had in our people's
parlay, Florida State on the moneyline. Then we're gonna go to Sunday.
We're gonna get the Seahawks on themoney line, nice little bounce back
spot against the Commanders. And thenwe're gonna top it off with Chris Godwin
to get forty plus yards against thevery bad secondary of the Tennessee Titans.

(34:30):
And that gives you plus one ohone on DraftKings, plus one on one
on DraftKings. All right, verygood. I like that for me.
I'm gonna do the I'm gonna goback to the slow burn. Haven't done
this in a while. So whereare we starting off here. We're gonna
start off Friday night and we're gonnatake the Celtics on the money line.
The Celts have lost back to backgames, come back home to take on
the Nets in one of these weirdplaying tournament games. We got the green

(34:52):
court tomorrow night. Can't wait tosee that. And then we're gonna head
to Saturday. We're gonna take Georgiaon the money line. Their double digit
favorites against Old Miss. We're gonnatake on the money line. They're double
digit favorites against USC at home.And then nothing on Sunday. But we're
gonna head the Monday Night football andtake the Buffalo Bills on the money line.
You put those four legs together,that is plus one oh seven on

(35:12):
DraftKings. And then what is wehave another mail in ballot for Adam Kaufman.
What's Adam's bankrolls to do? He'sgoing all Sunday, We're going He's
going with the Ravens and Bengals bothon the money line and as well as
the Cowboys. He's bringing that spreaddown to minus six and a half and
that is plus one twenty two onfandel. All right, very good.
I like that three bank rull repairsall in plus money two that are trending

(35:36):
very nicely tonight. So if youguys missed any of that conversation with John
mccacney on our college football preview,be sure to check out our podcast,
It's the Gambler. With Adam Kaufman, the full name of the show.
Any social media or not social media, any platform that does podcasts, you
know, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio app anywhere you can find us on

(35:57):
there. So check it out,subscribe if you like it. The world
to us and we will be rightback by the way. We hit the
people's parlay just hit Did we justhit it? I just hit it?
Do you have the sounder up?One second? One second? We got
the thirty third passing attempt from Bryson. Very nice. Hit it again one
more time? All right, verygood. So we got that up like
seven sixty or eight twenty with theboost. All three legs hit. That

(36:20):
is. That is wonderful. Whata way to uh to wrap up the
week. But we'll be back withour NFL conversation with Will hill Aviisen going
game by game across the National FootballLeague. That was your bankroll repair powered
by Today's Collision with locations involved inChelsea, Stoneham and Dan Very. Check
them out at Today's Collision dot Com. The Gambler starts now here's Adam Kaufman.

(36:46):
It's The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.Hour two. I am not Adam
Kaufman. I'm Dan Watkins here withyou tonight as we navigate through what's just
going to be another glorious weekend offootball with plenty to bet on. Always
is this this Thursday night game?The Bears, they're hanging on here,
they're up sixteen thirteen less than aminute ago. Eddie Pinero, the former

(37:07):
Bear, missing a field goal withCarolina to tie the game up, waiting
to see if Carolina can possibly getthe ball back here. But as we
wait to sweat out the end ofthis game, we are about to be
joined by Will Hill of decent Willwhat's going on? Man? How you
doing? I'm sorry to pull youaway from this just riveting Thursday night game.

(37:28):
Well boys, what's going on?And this is a good teaching lesson,
a good a good lesson for thelisteners out there getting the best of
the number. Because there were threeand a half out there, there were
threes. They were were cheaper moneylines, and it's looking like we're gonna
land on three. And like youmentioned, you're pulling you away from the
game. I don't know if thisis going to land on three, but
it certainly seems they could go intoand you know, for newer betters,

(37:52):
it's hard to convince them these thesepoints, these half points matter. But
hey, man, like you guysknow, once you start betting these games,
these half points are everything and itdoesn't matter until it does. And
this looks like a situation where youknow that half point, that three three
and a half, it certainly comesinto play here. Yeah, I'll give
you one that we just talked aboutin the last hour doing our college football

(38:12):
preview. We do our people's parlayfor that, we'll do one with you
in the NFL. But for collegeI went with Florida State. I was
liking them at fourteen, but I'mloving them at thirteen and a half.
We just saw that point swing thereon Fandel and we scooped that right up.
Yeah. Sure. And again theaverage person, you know, the
person betting fifty bucks a week,they just at one game week thick cost
seven seven and a half. What'sdifferent. It's like, you know what,

(38:36):
if you're betting fifteen twenty games aweek, that half point you're being
shocked how many times? Just dothis? Just jot down every bet you
make all year and subtract to halfa point. You're at half a point.
The difference between winning and losing isvery slim. So those half points
are monumentals and this is just anotherexample of that. Yeah, so the

(38:57):
final go in Chicago, six teamto thirteen, another primetime under. These
are hitting at over seventy five percent. Now, will are you at the
earth? Are you at the pointwhere you're telling people? Yeah, if
you want to start betting, justjust start with primetime unders. Man,
that's a fascinating question, because Ithink he might be late to the party
now. Tonight it's matchup dependent.Tonight was a situation where Chicago is coming

(39:22):
off by turnovers. Carolina was comingoff three turnovers, two pick sixes,
So I thought both teams would becareful with the ball. You don't want
to be late to the party withthese trends. I remember this NCAA tournament
where first half unders were a trendor a trend, and once it becomes
a trend, once it becomes public, the books adjust, sometimes they overadjust.
Honestly this point forward. If Ihad to bet anything going forward in

(39:44):
terms of primetime overs or unders,I probably take the overs because people see
the trends and they say, oh, free money, bet the under,
Bet the under. These these trends, these you know, these lines have
a habit of correcting overre so Ithink we're going to see correction at some
point where we finally see some unders. So it's just a really I'm sorry,

(40:07):
Yeah, I actually thought tonight wasgoing to go over, but it
turns out I was wrong. Glad, I glad, I just stayed away.
I stayed away from this spot tonightwhen it comes to a total.
But it's a really just gross weekendwhen it comes to standalone in primetime games.
We had this one tonight. Nowwe have another Germany game nine thirty
am Eastern kick Patriots and Colts.Well, this game, I just think

(40:27):
it's going to be tough to watcha lot of people are going towards the
under here at forty three and ahalf, that's still hanging around ninety two
percent of the public on the under. Indy is favored by one one and
a half depending on where you lookhere. How do you feel about this
game? I'm excited for this game. Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning. Great,
right, oh oh wait, butnone of those guys are involved.

(40:47):
It's you know, you start torealize how spoiled we were for a decade
plus with these great quarterbacks and Manningversus Brady, because you know, Minshew
versus Matt Jones just doesn't hit thesame. I like New England. I
would lean towards it. Under Remember, Belichick has experience with these overseas trips,
and that's important in these spots.We've seen that be a big factor
here where Stiching he's a younger coach, he's a newer coach. He might

(41:10):
not have the experience going overseas awhole routine adjustment time, pop adjustment.
I would leave New England. Ithink if you could see New England up
to seven and a half, eightand a half, that's a good play.
You know, last Sunday it wasworth waking up for, especially from
the West coast. Hey, Chiefs, chief Dolphins, Hey, let's wake

(41:30):
up since thirty in the morning.But we got to watch every second this
this is not one of these.But when in doubt, take the points.
I guess I would just take NewEngland. Indy's been an over team
except for last week. They've beenable to move the ball. They can't
really stop anybody. I guess Iwould take the Patriots and look, this
is gonna be repetitive if we're goingto go all all over these games here

(41:52):
in terms of every single one,it's hard to just have a side with
some of these quarterbacks involved. ButI guess I would take the points.
With New England. We're probably leantowards an Underland the Teasers a good leg,
but lean towards the Patriots just becausethe experience here with Belgia at Overseas.
Yeah, I'm seeing a couple twostill on the board one and a
half in most books right now,but yeah, the underseams like to play

(42:13):
there. Moving on, we gotthe forty nine ers in the Jaguars San
Francisco. They're laying three on theroad. Trent Williams return to practice today.
He was limited. Deebo's been backthis week too. Kyle Shanahan says
he's not sure yet if Trent Williamsis gonna play this weekend, I think
that's gonna be the key guy herewhen it comes to how you're going to
approach this game. I love jacksonI really like Jacksonville. Excuse me at

(42:35):
this number, and then if wecould get this even higher if Williams plays,
Let's say this creeps to like afour. I'd really like the Jags
here at home. Yeah. Myfirst inclination is, hey, you're giving
me a team as good as Jacksonvilleat three at home, getting three,
I'm gonna take that all day.But the flip side of that is you
really want to step in front ofSan Francisco, You really think they're going
to lose four in a row offof by off three straight at home on

(43:01):
the road, getting healthy though,getting Deebo back, maybe getting Trent Williams
back, who knows, you knowwhat the situation with partying these concussions were.
This is the best game of theweekend. This is probably the game
I want the Leaks to do with. I would leaan San Francisco just because
I still think, you know,a month ago we said, hey,
hands down, this is the bestteam in the league. A month later

(43:22):
we want nothing to do with him. I think sometimes you have to buy
low in the NFL. I wouldlean San Francisco here if I had to
bet it. I think San Franciscogets it done. That's not a great
hope deal for San Francisco, forJacksonville that San Francisco. The forty nine
ers are the more talented team.I would take the forty nine ers,
just thinking, hey, they're goingto be on their best behavior here.

(43:44):
They've lost three in a row,they're getting healthier. This is still a
really good roster, and by dyingto bed at no, this is better
a better game to watch than tobet lean forty nine ers. Again,
this is one it's probably properly priced, but should be a fun one.
Hey, it's not impossible, youknow, a couple months from now we're
to talk about this as a superBowl game. I mean, that's really

(44:06):
a start out of the realm ofpossibility. But I would lean towards the
forty nine ers. Here wild tothink about Saint Jacksonville and Super Bowl in
the same sentence. But fifty ninepercent of the public money on the forty
nine ers right now lay in thethree points. So the Tennessee Titans around
the road taking on the Tampa BayBuccaneers thirty eight and a half. Here
is the total in this one.Tampa Bay's all also favored by one one

(44:28):
and a half In some spots,eighty five percent of the public money is
on the over, and this onewill We just saw Tampa get shredded by
a rookie quarterback CJ. Stroud throughfour hundred and seventy yards for them against
them last week. Can Will Levistake advantage of Tampa Bay? Or is
this a good bounce back spot forthe Bucks at home? I'm going to
imagine what I just said thirty secondsago about Jacksonville San Francisco beating the game.

(44:50):
I least won a bet. Thismight be the least the game I
want at least bet. This isa tough one. The line basically says,
hey, point flip, take yourchoice here. I think these are
about even teams, maybe Tampa slightlybetter. If I'm going to get the
slightly better team at home, andwhat's basically a pick them, I'll take
Tampa Bay. Do I sound convinenceand know? I mean, there's just

(45:15):
look with the the quarterback play inthis league, it's just it's hard to
find, you know, it's hardto beat some of these quarterbacks. You
want to back Mayfield? Do youwant to back Levis? You know a
couple starts in. I'll take Tampahere. I think these are about even
teams. Their home it's not agreat home field, but I'll take the
Bucks here. I mean they couldhave easily won that game last week against

(45:35):
the Texans. Some coaching decisions thatwere odd at the end there with with
Bowls, and obviously he took theknee there with the Texans. So get
covered with Tampa. That's one ofthose games where it's, man, what
did I just watch? What didI just bet on? But this is
a coin foot game. To me, teasing the dog up through the three
through seven makes some sense. I'lltake Tampa here, just in what's completely

(45:58):
a coin foot game here. Yeah, and it's fifty to fifty when it
comes to the percentage of the betshere on the spread in this one,
be any any lean on the totalWith eighty five percent of the public going
over thirty eight and a half,by thirty and a half, I'll go
wonder, this has twenty or seventeenwritten all over it. You have Mayfield,
you have a decent defense with Tampa, you have a rookie quarterback.

(46:20):
Vrabel as a conservative coach, Bowlas a conservative coach. I'll one of
the odds we get a twenty atseventeen final, I'll look for a jumbo
payout on a twenty to seventeen final. I don't know who wins or who
covers? But give me a twentyto seventeen correct score prop at like whatever,
fifty to one because to me,he says, that's who are written
all over it. Love that allright? So Will Hill from Vson is

(46:42):
here with us. We are breakingdown the week ten NFL slate. We
will be right back in just afew minutes. Don't go anywhere. It's
the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adamis out tonight. I'm Dan Watkins.
We are navigating our way through thisweek ten NFL slate with Will Hill of
Vson. Will had a little researchresearch for us during the break. Twenty
to seventeen correct score forty seven toone is what's paying out a FanDuel of

(47:07):
that Titans buck sco seven to one? Count me in, where's Adam?
By the way, how much vacationtime does this guy get? I mean,
this guy's got the cushiest job inthe world. I mean, it's
truly remarkable. Oh my goodness,he gets paid this little xurious salary,
he gets time off, he getsfree whatever. I mean, my goodness.

(47:27):
So he's got probably the best ationin the bins. Is just and
this is crazy. Yeah, he'sfigured it out. And on top of
that, we hit like a plusseven sixty two people's parlay tonight too.
On top of that, oh whatwas the parlay? So it was Chuba
Hubbard over fourteen and a half receivingyards, Bryce Young over thirty two and
a half attempts, and DJ Mooreover fifty two and a half receiving yards

(47:50):
and that was on Caesars. Normallyit'd be like a five to fifty parlay,
but we got the fifty percent samegame boost and took that right up
to seven sixty two. So thatwas a really nice hit for us.
Now, you can't give the Pantherstruth serum, but let's be honest.
He's your Stroud has worked really good. Young has not looked great. I
don't think he's got a great situation. There's not a lot of talent,
not a lot of explosive steel playersaround him, not a good coaching staff.

(48:15):
But man, if he gave theCarolina Panthers truth serum, we'd love
to have c J. Stroud,Hell if he just if you asked them,
hey, Will Levis versus Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson verse, you know
versus Bryce Young, they might havehad like the second third, maybe the
fourth best quarterback in this draft.Again, it's early, but you might
have you might have married the wrongperson there for the Panthers. Yeah,

(48:37):
he didn't not look good tonight.He missed a lot of open guys,
a lot of open guys all persontoo. Look at the NFL, I
mean its size and speed. He'she's a little guy. He was an
outlier in terms of like, allright, we're not only going to pick
this guy first, but we're goingto give up all of our assets basically
to move up and grab this guyfirst. He's basically you know, he's

(48:57):
five eight, five nine, asmall guy, small hips. It's we'll
see, we'll see how it worksout. It's not working out too well
here. So we got a nicebattle in the AFC North this week and
the Browns taken on the Ravens inBaltimore. The Ravens are favored by six
points in this one will but ninetyone percent of the public money is on
the under at thirty eight. Wejust saw Tampa get shredded by a rookie

(49:20):
quarter or no, I'm sorry,wrong game there Baltimore. They feasted on
dtr back in the work before hethrew three interceptions against this Baltimore defense.
We're gonna get to Seaun Watson undercenter this time for the Browns. Is
that enough to think that Cleveland canhang around on the road one version of
Watson? Are we getting though?I mean, you see these you watch
him throw the ball, it's allthis completions, your tit passes. It's

(49:42):
nowhere near the player we saw threeor four years ago, twenty eighteen,
twenty nineteen, where he's basically atop five, top seven quarterback. I
think the Ravens role here. Idon't know how the Ravens, how Cleveland
moves the ball. I think it'san under. I'm not crazy about laying
six, six and a half againstthe defense that's this good for Cleveland.
I just if I had to playthis game, maybe I played the under.

(50:06):
Maybe that's the best play. Ijust I don't trust Cleveland's offense.
I don't trust Watson. To me, this is a I don't know,
twenty to ten, twenty to thirteentype of game. I like Baltimore.
I like the under. I don'tknow what's going on with Watson. Watson
to me, is the most interestingstory in the league. Like, what
is the next eighteen months of Washington'scareer look like? Because we have no

(50:28):
precedent of a quarterback who misses seveneight hundred days in his career and then
comes back and is good as badas different. It hasn't been good so
far. And if you talk toyou know, if you listen to Browns
fans, they're very defensive. It'slike, oh, he's you know,
last year it was Russ. Lastyear it was he played in bad weather.
This year he's injured. It's like, at what point are we going

(50:49):
to see the Watson from three orfour years ago. We haven't seen that
player since basically I don't know twentynineteen, twenty twenty. So to me,
it's Ravens. It's under my bestplay probably here is a written I
think they would escape by a touchdownplus, yeah, you know, the
only thing I can think of that'sclose to it. Totally different situations.
But how much time did Michael Vickmiss He missed two seasons, didn't he?

(51:12):
Yeah? He did. Definitely differentsituation. You know, it's weird
with Watson. It's the shoulder,it was the ross. I don't get
it, you know, I justdon't understand it's when Vic came back.
We at least saw flashes of theVic. We knew where I remember that
Monday night game versus Washington. Where'srunning around, He's throwing the world deep.
We don't see the skill set ondisplay with Watston. Its just it

(51:37):
looks like a different player. Idon't know if that player from Houston's ever
coming back. So moving on,we got the Texans taking on the Bengals
in Cincinnati. Bengals are six anda half point favorites in this when it
opened up at seven, so it'screeped down just a little bit. Forty
six and a half is the total. We got some major injury news though,
to monitor her here in this one. Will T Higgins He's likely out

(51:57):
this weekend with a hamstring injury.Jamar Chay he's questionable with that rib injury.
He did not look good last weekagainst Buffalo. All week, I've
been feeling the Bengals, thinking thatthey're back after what they did to the
Bills on Sunday Night football. Butafter talking to one of your colleagues at
Visa JVT last night, I'm alittle skeptical now with all these injuries.
Even though the Texans are one andthree on the road this season. Such

(52:22):
a look sad spot because you lookat Cincy. They have a huge win
against the forty nine ers, ahuge win Sunday night against the Bills next
week, and we finally get agood Thursday night game play the Ravens on
Thursday night. This is such atrash spot, a sandwich spot. Houston's
pretty good on defense, they're goodat quarterback. Now, this is the
situation where the number matters, becauseat six and a half, I'm indifferent.

(52:47):
But if you can give me seven, I like Houston. It's a
round, a key number shop round. If you like the dog, make
sure you get the seven. Ifyou like Cincy, make sure you lay
the six and a half. Ilike the dog here. I think seven
to I could see, you know, twenty to twenty game. Late in
the fourth quarter, somebody wins itwith a field goal, Like I like
the dog. Here, give meHouston, all right. The Saints head

(53:09):
up to Minnesota to take on theVikings. This one right now, it's
it's two and a half or threepoints. The Saints are favored in this
one on the road against Minnesota,but we have the legend of Josh Dobbs
under center for the Vikings. Doesthat legend continue to grow this week?
And also, hey, Brian,here's the stat for you. Do you
know who has the longest winning streakin the NFC right now? Beats me?

(53:31):
It's the Minnesota Vikings who have wonfour in a row, and they've
done it without Justin Jefferson, andwe learned today that he's not going to
play until he's one hundred percent.Will how do you how we betting this
one? Minnesota is obviously at twoand a half three at two and a
half. It's a great teaser forMinnesota. I like the Vikings here,
I just I don't buy into theSaints team they were I don't know if

(53:52):
you guys saw this staff. Therehave been like two teams in the last
century where they were plus five inturnovers and did cover the point spread.
Chicago last week turned the ball overfive times, the Saints turned it over
zero times, the Bear still coveredthe spread. It's almost hard to do
it. It's almost inconceivable. Minnesota'sat home, They've got Addison and they've

(54:14):
got a good offensive line. Ifyou can get the three to me,
these are equal teams there's just there'sso many of these teams in the NFL
where it's just like you shrug yourshoulders, you throw your hands up in
the air. It's like, Idon't know what to do with any of
these teams. So I'll take thepoints at home. I'm not convinced on
the Saints team, so it's apick for the bitings here and again two

(54:35):
and a half. It's a goodteaser, like I like Minnesota here.
Yeah, you know that stat there. If I had to pick one quarterback
that wasn't capitalizing on like a historicamount of turnovers, Derek Carr would probably
be my first guest because it's justmiserable betting him any time I do,
I try not to do it.But anyways, the Green Bay Packers they're
taking on the Steelers in Pittsburgh.Thirty eight and a half is the total
here in this one. It's athree point spread too. By the way,

(54:57):
Pittsburgh's favored, but that thirty eightand a half number. Sixty five
percent of public bets are on that, and for good reason. The Steelers
ring twenty ninth and scoring the packtheir twentieth. Matt Canada is going to
be on the sideline. So thesecond straight week. They ran for one
hundred and sixty six yards a weekago, and the Packers can be run
on Pittsburgh five and three. Canthey improve to six and three this year
or this week they can? Ilike green Bay post the points. There

(55:22):
are some three and a half's outthere. I can't like three and a
half with three three and a halfwith Piket. He's just you look at
the Pittsburgh stats, the yard age, the everything. I mean, there's
just nothing that screams an above fivehundred team. With the Steelers team,
and I know it's Tomlin, theyalways outperform their metrics, But I like
Green Bay, these are just twosort of average, below average teams.

(55:45):
I'm going to take the points here. I just to me, this is
a twenty to seventeen type of game. If you do think Pittsburgh's gonna win,
there is a twenty two to oneat DraftKings for Tomlin to be coach
of the Year if this team evermade the playoffs. Tomlin is almost the
star of the team. Where it'slike every time you hear about the Steelers,
it's Tomlin. He does more withmore with less. It's almost like

(56:06):
davel last year where it's like,you know, he gets all the credit
because the perception of this team isthey have no talent, and tom win
just elevates this team, you know, into a playoff level team. So
this game in particular, I likeGreen Bay. I just think this is
a close, low scoring game.Like every Steelers game ever is. Tomlin's
good as a dog. He's goodoff a win, but good off of

(56:28):
loss. But this is off awin, he says, a favorite.
I can't lay three three and ahalf a picket. I'll take the dog
here just because you know, Ijust I don't see a lot of separation
between these two teams. I knowit's not a fun bet to bet green
Bay. It's not gonna be afun watch regardless of flete bet. But
to me, it's the Packers andand I really think if you do like

(56:51):
Pittsburgh, Tomlin has a very goodchance if he wins this game, and
if they ever made the playoffs,he's gonna be the coaching year. He's
never won this award. The medialoves him. It's almost like a lifetime
achievement award. So I think thistoo close game. Give me the points
plus the Packers. With the Packershere, it's wild to think about the
Mike Tomlins never won coach the yearI saw that. I don't think he's
ever been top five, which isamazing. It's really incredible. That's insane.

(57:15):
All right. Moving on the Falcons, they're on the road. They're
laying one and a half points inArizona. But the Cardinals looks like they're
getting Kyler Murray back this weekend.Looks like they're getting James Connor back as
well. The Cards went one inthirteen in Kyler Murray's absence. Is he
gonna be enough of a jolt hereto lead this team to a win over
the Falcons? Oh? Man,do we have to bet this game?

(57:37):
Do we have to discuss this game? I need to revisit my contract with
you guys to see if I actuallyhave to legally discuss this game. I
need to understand this. Why iswhy is Arizona playing this guy? Like
from August on they've had a fulltank on. We're gonna trade this guy.
We're gonna trade that guy. We'regonna tank Berry and Caleb Williams.
Then Thanksgiving hits and we're gonna allright day Williams ca yeah, to showcase

(58:00):
them for an offseason trade that he'shealthy. All right, but you're gonna
showcase him, but he might winyou a game or two and bumpy to
the third or fourth pick. Wherewhore you drafting a quarterback? If you
pick a third or fourth, itmight put you in a situation. I
just don't get it. It seemedlike they were tanking. Now it doesn't
seem like they're tanking. It's avery strange situation. Do I want it

(58:23):
back to Atlanta? I really don't. I guess I would go that way.
It's a really bad way. That'sprobably an under. That's probably an
under. Arizona probably going to beconcerted on offense. I don't know if
there's a rushing prop on Murray yet, I would go under. I don't
know if he's going to get hislegs back right away. This, this

(58:43):
Atlanta situation is very odd from Ritter, their loyalty to him, to Heineke,
They don't use Robinson, the coachis very arrogant with the media.
I'll take Atlanta because I have to. Man, God blessed the person who's
watching this game without a bet onit, because this is just not a
great game. I would think Atlantawould win this game. Remember, back

(59:05):
in the summer, Atlanta was thehot team. Everybody loved this team over
their wins to win the division.They were everybody's sleeper. Now not so
much. But I would guess AtlantaWinnday's football game. Yeah. The Arthur
Smith thing is just it's very curious. I mean, their refusal to use
Bjon Robinson the red zone is becomingjust beyond concerning at this point. Just
two times, just two cares forthree yards inside the opponent's ten this season.

(59:30):
Arthur Smith saying he prefers Tyler Algierin short yard situations, which is
just crazy to think about. Butwe're gonna step aside here. We got
to take a break. When wecome back, we have a couple other
games to go through. Then we'regonna build out a people's parla with Will,
so we'll do your research. Ihope you have your favorite pick of
the weekend, but we will beright back. All right, it's the
Gambler with Adam Kaufman. We arebreaking down the NFL slate for Week ten.

(59:53):
I am not Adam Kaufman. I'mDan Watkins. By the way,
Adam is off. Will Hill iswith us from Vson. He's breaking down
this slate for us. Well,we don't have to go full rapid fire
here, but we do have tomove a little quicker here with these last
five games, not that there's reallya whole lot to dig into with some
of them, but we will startwith the fun one, and that's the
Lions on the road taking on theChargers this weekend, the Lions laying three

(01:00:14):
points on the road, the publicloving them. Eighty three percent of public
bets on the Lions to cover thatthree point spread. And this is also
the highest total of the weekend.Forty eight and a half points is the
over under seventy eight percent of publicbets are on the over. How are
you betting this one? Yeah?I get it because it was one one
and a half. And I certainlyunderstand the sentiment for the Lions that that

(01:00:34):
are on offensive, that are ondefense. The Chargers have no hole field
to speak of. Just feels likethe Chargers play closet games every week,
the last couple of weeks excluded.I guess I'll take the Lions just because
they're better both sides of the ball. There's gonna be a bunch of Lions
fans there. I'm not crazy aboutLand points to the charge that Harberd has
not looked good. So slightening hereto Detroit. Yeah, and I've seen

(01:00:57):
all these articles this week about theimproving Chargers defense. You just beat the
Bears and the Jets' let's hold down, let's slow pump the brakes just a
little bit here right now? Absolutelyall right, moving on. We got
the Tommy de Vito experience in Arlington, Texas this week. Giants, Cowboys,
Dallas, I think latest look here, what do we got? Seventeen

(01:01:19):
and a half, sixteen and ahalf depending on where you look. It
was an absolute splattering back in Weekone, Dallas won forty to nothing.
They've also won eleven straight at home. I guess I'm not gonna ask if
Dallas is gonna win here. Iguess any chance of a backdoor cover in
this one Dallas money line that's bethere? No. Actually, I actually

(01:01:39):
like Dallas minus the point and certainpeople. Now, you can't lay how
many points the NFL. This isa rare situation where this quarterback, you
know, God bless him, hemade the NFL. But I don't know
people that watch college. Tommy DeVitogot benched at Syracuse. He's not the
NFL quarterback. Dallas is the frontrunning team. You mentioned it was forty
to nothing in week one. Tome, Dallas covers this number by halftime.

(01:02:02):
You don't have to worry about aback door with the veto. I
think this has thirty eight to sevenwritten all over it. Give me the
Cowboys, maybe Giants. Team totalunders a good one at ten and a
half. Dallas is going to destroythis team. Staying in the NFC,
will head up to the Pacific Northwestthe Commanders. They're on the road taking
on the Seahawks. Seattle lay insix or six and a half, depending
on where you look. The publicvery high on the Seahawks this weekend.

(01:02:25):
Ninety percent of the bets are onSeattle to cover forty four and a half
is the total. By the way, Seventy seven percent of the bets are
on the over. Seattle's looking torebound after just getting hit by a freight
train. That is the Baltimore Ravensright now, and they're three and one
at home. They're taking on ateam that's trying to lose. Someone needs
to tell the New England Patriots thatbecause they didn't get the memo last week

(01:02:46):
when the Commanders win here in Foxborough. But is this a good bounce back
spot for first Seattle? It is? It is a good bounce back spot.
They looked a little fraudy last weekthough they got destroyed that game.
I don't know that I can laysix with them. I don't want to
grab six with Washington. Give meSeattle on a teaser, maybe one in

(01:03:07):
doubt take the points. I justI don't think Seattle is that good.
I don't think Gino's that good.We'll know it's about their defense. You
know, they're trading second round picksfor Leonard Williams like there's some Super Bowl
contender. I don't see it.By default, I'll just take Washington plus
and six. I don't feel greatabout it. But to me, Seattle
is just not that good of ateam, all right. So that brings
us to Sunday night football. Ohgoodness, and we're still getting the effects

(01:03:31):
of the preseason schedule makers here withan Aaron Rodgers special. But Aaron Rodgers,
you know, he's not the quarterbackright now. The New York Jets,
Zach Wilson is the Jets are takingon the Raiders. I gotta go.
I got another phone call. Ihave to go with the moment.
My goodness, this is actually wildbecause as I'm looking here on the Action
Network page of all the spreads andeverything, neither team is favored right now.

(01:03:52):
They're both sitting at plus one orplus one and a half at the
moment for the best spot, soyou can pretty much find it. This
is basically a pick. I'm here, but thirty six and a half is
the total here will eighty nine percentof the public on the under good reason
twenty seventh and thirtieth ranked scoring offenses. I mean, I guess the question
here is does that new coach smellthat new coach boost Linger into a second

(01:04:14):
wing for week? For Antonio Pierce. I don't know what did I do
to deserve this? What did Ido to deserve Zach Wilson twice in six
days on Primetime? I think I'ma good person, you know, I
help elderly's across the street. Whydo I have to endure this on Someday
night? Remember before you get twocarried away with the Raiders. Last year,
Jeff Saturday takes over the Colts hewins. Everyone say, hey,

(01:04:35):
this is a you know, anew approach. Saturday is going to turn
on the Colts. I don't thinkthey won another game, so this is
obviously if you can get the oneand a half, he can tease it
up to seven and a half.I get. I'm gonna go with the
Jets here just because I think outof the four units, the two offense,
the two defenses, I think theJets defense is the best unit out

(01:04:56):
of the four. So give methe Jets here. Do I sound con
a sound enthusiastic? No, butoh man, this is a tough one.
I'll take the Jets are on themoney line now or minus to zero,
whatever, and then we'll wrap thingsup with a Monday night football game,
also featuring teams from the AFC Eastand the AFC West. The Denver
Broncos off the by Denver quietly runwon two games in a row. They

(01:05:17):
head to Western New York to takeon the Buffalo Bills, who are just
reeling right now. Buffalo seven anda half point favorites at home here in
this one. And I find thisgame fascinating here because the rut that the
Bills find themselves in It's grown sodeep that Latavius Murray has called an offensive
players only meeting to remind his teammatesthat they have a lot of talent on
the roster. And it's actually thesecond time this season that Murray has done

(01:05:41):
this. Past five outings, Buffaloesproduced more punts fourteen than touchdowns thirteen.
Can Buffalo get right here or canDenver kind of keep rolling? I like
Denver plus the points. I justBuffalo feels like a team that missed its
window a couple of years ago.That thirteen again Kansas City, they're missing
half or defense. Allen is bangedup, he's in practice, out of

(01:06:05):
practice. They got you know,they lost by six the Bengals last week,
but that was really a misleading final. The Bengals dominated that game.
If you look back from the Londongame against the Jags, what five six
weeks ago, they haven't played ballat all. Denver, like you mentioned,
they've played better on defense. Theyfind it, you know, a
bit of an identity on offense wherewe're gonna roll on Javonte Williams, we're

(01:06:27):
gonna run the ball, We're gonnalimit Ross in terms of you know what
he does on offense. To me, man, I'm gonna take the points
here. I get it if youwant to tease Buffalo, figure and hey,
they're going to win this game.This is kind of their season when
you look at their schedule the restof the week, it's really tough.
It's home versus the Broncos, thisweek on mother Night, it's home versus
Jets. That it gets tough reallyafter that. So you're better win these

(01:06:50):
next two. So I would expectBuffle to win. But I'm not laying
seven and a half for this team. Give me the Broncos plus seven and
a half. Yeah, I likethat. I really like the under here
in this one to forty seven.Wish I scooped it at forty eight earlier
in the week too. I thinkforty seven is just way too many points
for these two teams. And asyou mentioned, I think Buffalo's broken right
now, man, until until theyget a new head coach and a new

(01:07:12):
offensive coordinator in there. Yeah,I think they're a broken team. They
probably should have kept bable a coupleof years ago. And look, Babele
hasn't exerted himself too well here.But your whole team is the quarterback,
the quarterback is propping up the wholefranchise right now. McDermott is so conservative,
so close to the vents where it'slike, you know, every fourth
and one thirty one. He justlike he likes to run the ball,

(01:07:32):
kicks, field goals. He's abit of a dinosaur in terms of that.
I don't agree here that he does. I don't know that he's going
to be the coach this time nextyear. I really don't. He shouldn't
be. If Buffalo wants to improve. All right, let's build out the
people's parlay. John will excuse me. You've been with us multiple times here.
You know how this works. Youare the guests, so you get
to go first. What is yourfavorite play of the weekend. I am

(01:07:56):
not going to let this opportunity flippast me. I am going to go
Giants team total under ten and ahalf. If I get a chance to
fade Danny Tommy, Ronnie DeVito,whatever his name is, I am gonna
go under. If you look,if the Giants were two touchdowns and you
beat me, you beat me.I don't think that happens. Like I
mentioned, the Cowboys or a frontrunner, they're a good defense. The
Veto is just on an NFL quarterbackGiants team total under ten and a half

(01:08:20):
points. All right, so wehave our third right in ballot from one
Adam Kaufman. Tonight, Brian,tell us, what is Adam playing this
weekend? Going with the Detroit Lionsminus three? I guess, all right,
all right, I like that,and guess I guess we're very nice
of Adam to take some time fromhis vacation or writing it with a pick.
I hope you don't, you know, we don't overwork him here,

(01:08:41):
I mean very nice him right inhe's sent it by carrier pigeon too.
Yes, right, that might bewhat he's doing. Maybe he's turning birds
on his on his time off there. But guys, so we're actually gonna
be doing the same game parlay plushere because I'm going right to that Chargers
Detroit game. I'm gonna take JaredGoff over two hundred and sixty six and
a half passing yard. Everybody notnamed Zach Wilson can throw over this number

(01:09:02):
against the Chargers. That defense isjust so bad, as we were talking
about. I think they're a littleoverrated right now at this point, after
the past couple of weeks. Soput these three legs together. We're gonna
go Giants under ten and a halfteam total Detroit Lions minus three in golf
over two hundred and sixty six anda half passing yards. I got plus
four ninety at Caesars, Brian,you've seen anything better? Yeah? I

(01:09:25):
get five point fifty one on DK. Oh wow, Okay, So DK
is the place to go. Will. How you feel about that? I
love it. Let's go. Theyshould really just give us some money right
now. All right, very good, Let's try to hit another people people's
parlay after we just hit one tonight, Will, thanks so much, man
for joining us. Great stuff.As always, you guys are the best

(01:09:45):
big fan of the show. Thanksfor having me. All right, man,
we'll talk to you soon. We'llcatch up down the road. All
right. We're gonna step aside herewhen we get back. It's time to
put this show to bed. Now, it's time to put this show to
bed with my pillow. Oh man, what a show, what a show.
So many picks, Brian, Myhead is just spinning right now with

(01:10:08):
all the picks that we have givenout tonight. Great stuff from John mckeckney
on college football, in the firsthour. Fantastic stuff from Will Hill in
the second hour on the NFL goinggame by game there and given out sides
and total plays. Just some aresome really interesting ones too. I'm really
tempted to place that exact score inthat Tennessee Tampa Bay game at forty seven
to one payout there twenty to seventeenfinal. What do you think about that?

(01:10:30):
I think I think that's a greatplay. That's an interesting one.
All right, So we've given you, guys, what two people's parlays.
We've given you six straits, We'vegiven you three bank role repairs. We
hit a people's parlay at over plusseven to fifty tonight, already two more
coming in for the weekend, bothover plus five hundred. I believe,

(01:10:51):
just great stuff. Go back checkout the podcast The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
Wherever you find your podcast, we'rethere every single site. But just
a great show. Brian, lookingahead to Friday, anything Friday Night that
you're interested in, I mean,we have the Celtics tomorrow night. They
got to bounce back here or anythingin that game. I just I'm really
not looking forward to seeing that court. That's really gonna piss me off.

(01:11:13):
That's gonna be that's gonna be toughto watch. It's good. I'm sure
Adam has the numbers to back theseup, so we can talk about it
on Monday. But our Thursday Nightpeople's parlay seems to be like they're pretty
hot. I mean, look,people are asking, you've hit a lot
of Thursday night footballs this year.People are asking, are we the Kings
of Thursday night Football? I mean, people are asking. I'm just just
throwing that out there. But yeah, we will be back on Monday.

(01:11:35):
Adam should be back. I believehe's back. We'll have the full crew
here. We'll be breaking down,probably doing a little review preview with someone
talking football. I'm sure we'll haveplenty of NBA, maybe some NHL,
maybe looking ahead to some Action inthe middle of the week. Of course,
we'll probably even put out a Mondaynight exclusive parlay on our Action Network
page. You can find us atthe Gambler with Ak or the Gambler Ak.

(01:11:58):
I believe it is on the ActionNetwork Network app. We put all
of our plays on there. Sothank you very much guys for listening.
As we're currently you know, wrappingup this show here, we're really sweating
out this Edmonton oiler's money line herein the regulation they are down two to
one to the Sharks in the secondperiod, and then my bank roll repair.
We need just a couple more pointsfrom Paula ben Caro right now,

(01:12:21):
he's at thirteen. We need eighteenfrom him. Seven and a half minutes
left to go in that Hawk's magicgame with Orlando up by nine right now.
So those are what we're waiting on. Yeah, please follow us,
follow any of us on Twitter.You can find Adam Adam, Adam and
Kaufman on Twitter. You can findme at Dan Watkins Radio. We're always
posting our picks and it's you know, it's a fun time. It always

(01:12:44):
is. To please interact with theshow. So thank you very much for
listening. We will be back onMonday, full crew and enjoy another great
weekend of football. In just onemore time. Thank you to our great
guest John mckeckney and Will Hill.I'm Dan Watkins signing off. Have a
great weekend. For the best night'ssleep you've ever had, go to my
pillow dot com and use the codeGambler

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