Best Bets for Celtics-Heat Game 4 as Boston Fights for Season, MLB Betting Strategies

May 22, 2023: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guests Matt LaMarca (@mattlamarca) from DraftKings' and Action Network's Charlie DiSturco (@charliedisturco). LaMarca offers his favorite targets and fades in Boston's must-win Game 4 in Miami. DiSturco discusses his approach to betting baseball, including the props he chases and those he stays away from, before giving some of his preferred spots for Tuesday. And, it's time for The People's Parlay to rebound.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Now wr KO presents Boston's only nightlysports betting show, The Gambler, with
Adam Kaufman covering spreads, props,parlays, and Moore. The Gambler starts.
Now Here's Adam Kaufman. What's up? Everybody? Welcome to Week four

(00:23):
of The Gambler with Adam Kaufman onwr KO. I am Adam Kaufman.
I am not alone. Dan Watkinsis here. Dan say hello. Hello.
EJ Pacheco our producer, Ej.What's up? What's good? All
right? Well, we are goingto be joined by a couple of guests,
couple of industry experts over the courseof these couple hours coming up and

(00:44):
about I don't know, maybe tenfifteen minutes. Matt Lamarca. You can
find his work covering basketball, football, a little bit of baseball. The
man's all over the place. Hecovers these sports for DraftKings from Matthew Berry's
Fantasy Life, for Action Network forprops dot Com. He's going to join
us, help us make some sense, for lack of a better way of

(01:06):
putting it, because I don't thinkthere's any sense to be made, but
he is going to try and hopefullyat least help us try and make some
money as it relates to the BostonCeltics. So I'm a little hesitant to
even want to discuss, but wewill do it. We will talk about
the season, what they are facing, which is namely elimination tomorrow night in
Miami against the Heat, who havetaken a three O series lead in the

(01:27):
Eastern Conference Finals. Something Matthew Brogden, matt or Malcolm Brogden, Matthew Brogden,
I don't know. Matthew Brockden alreadyforget their just forget their names.
They're out of our heads. We'vemoved onto the Red Sox. Malcolm Brogden
earlier called stunning their deficit, andI would say that as the lightest way
to describe what is happening right now. And so Lamarca will be with us

(01:49):
for the better part of the firsthour of the show. Charlie Disturco,
he will come on Baseball Analyst forAction Network. He will come on an
hour number two. We will ofcourse track what is happening with the Red
Sox, who are barely underwigh andalready down one nothing to the Angels out
in Los Angeles. Socks and Angels, the fun of the Socks being on
the West Coast for this show atleast something that we get to pay attention

(02:12):
to. And of course second halfin LA, also in LA between the
Lakers and Nuggets, only a coupleof minutes into that second half in Denver,
trying to turn this into a game, and of course trying to battle
back right now, only down eightseventy five sixty seven about three minutes into
the third quarter as they are workingto try and eliminate the Lakers. And
this, by the way, iswhat you want to see. If you

(02:35):
have a team that is facing elimination, you would like your better players to
show up in an elimination game andto take over allah. Lebron James,
who as we know, is amultiple time champ and one of the greatest
players to ever played the game,and a guy well I did not Yeah
sure, I mean EJ thinks he'sthe goat. EJ is very young.
EJ is not old enough to haveseen Michael Jordan play in real time,

(03:00):
let alone some of the others.He's space jam was EJ's, you know,
Michael Jordan Arrow or maybe the LebronJames version instead. But thirty one
points by Lebron in this game oneleven or thirteen shooting, and like I
said, the second half is barelyunderway. That is what you're looking for
from your star, your leader,you your franchise basically, no matter how

(03:23):
old he is, to come in. But you know what I really love,
guys about this show. There area lot of things I love,
but what I really love at timeslike this about this show. Again the
Gambler, is that we're not concernedwith stuff that I've been doing interviews on
various radio station shows podcasts throughout theday talking about how did the Celtics get

(03:47):
here? And you know, isJaylen Brown gonna be gone in the off
season? Do you after fire JoeMissoula? Have they quit on their coach?
Do they not cares? It isnot the right makeup the new CBA.
Are you gonna have to deal Smartor rob or Ral or not bring
back Brogden or like I said,split up the Jay's and all. None

(04:08):
of that stuff means anything for thisshow. Tonight does not matter, could
not matter less. All that mattersfor the purposes of this show is Game
four. How do we bet it? How do we make money? Well,
the Celtics give us more games.Do we take this team seriously?

(04:29):
I am seeing the seas at theparticular book that I'm looking at, although
I imagine this is fairly consistent acrossbooks, but I can check a few.
While we're talking. Celtics for thefirst time in this series are underdogs
in Miami, and I think andI've tweeted about this at Adam mccaufman.
You can find Dan at Dan WatkinsRadio. I've tweeted about this a little

(04:49):
bit. I've I've vented about thisa little bit. The fact that the
Celtics, even after taking too longto beat the Sixers and too long to
beat the Hawks, came in wildlyovervalued by the betting markets and the Heat

(05:10):
wildly undervalued, or some combination ofthe two. I mean, let us
remember, Boston was what like afour to one or six to one favored
or some combind you know, somewherein between there to beat Miami going to
this series. And what I thinkreally jumped out was that even when Boston

(05:30):
dropped the first two games of thisseries at home, no less, going
to Miami, a place that theHeat have not lost this postseason, the
Celtics were still basically even money tocome back and win four out of five,
with three of those games taking placein Florida. I thought that was
insane. I could not believe it. And yet game after game Boston favored,

(05:55):
Boston favored, Boston favored, andnow, for the first time in
this series, dogs only a pointand a half, but dogs going into
Game four tomorrow night. As youknow, twenty four hours from now,
we will be seeing what is goingon between the Celtics and the Heats.
We will be consistent with this game. Will be a few minutes into the

(06:16):
second half, maybe getting ready topack up the season, or maybe hoping
they will force it back to theGarden on Thursday for a Game five.
I honestly don't know. I'd liketo tell you that I believe they're going
to win. Do I have theconviction to bet a large sum of money
on Boston at you know, atat even money, I mean literally plus

(06:41):
one hundred at even money on themoney line in Miami. I maybe I'll
wake up feeling that way tomorrow.I don't feel that way right now.
It's hard to It's hard, youknow, you can look back through these
games Celtics were, you know,as Joe Missoula said, they took three
out of four quarters in game one, which, by the way, he's
gotten progressively worse. I just wantto mention three out of four quarters they

(07:03):
won in game one, two outof four quarters in game two, one
out of four quarters in game three, so heaven forbid. In game four
they don't win a single quarter.But I'd like to think it's not going
to go down that way. Butin game one again, rebounds, turnovers,
outshot across the board, that wasI mean, that was your game

(07:25):
game two, and I was there, I was in the building. I
was I was hanging out with ourbuddy Chris Carney from Raynham Park before the
game, and the Celtics, Imean, Jason Tatum was there. He's
one of the only ones. RobWilliams was there. Horford, who can't
hit an open shot anymore. JaylenBrown, you couldn't have paid him to

(07:46):
hit an open shot that night.Smart was terrible that night. And again
rebounds, turnovers wildly, outshot fromthree point range just bad. And then
of course Game three felt like theCeltics were just after the first quarter or
even midway through the first quarter,never even in it, despite a commanding

(08:09):
advantage on the glass, partly becauseit felt like Miami never missed a shot.
They could not hit a three pointereleven out of forty two nineteen for
thirty five. On the other side, for Miami, you're talking fifty four
percent versus twenty six percent. Andif you listen to the broadcast, it
was all the undrafted guys killing you. Undrafted guy Duncan Robinson, undrafted guy

(08:30):
Max Strus, former Celtic undrafted guyCaleb Martin, all these guys just killing
you, killing you, shot aftershot after shot, to the point where
none of the Celtics starters even playedin the fourth quarter. It was that
ugly a game. So that bringsus to Game four and what do we

(08:50):
expect? And Lamark is going tojoin us, we'll get his expectations,
but very quickly, what should weexpect from a betting perspective? Dan,
Could you have any confidence to actuallybet Boston. I'm not talking about five
bucks, I'm talking about a considerableportion of your bank roll or multiple units,
or however you want to define it. Could you actually mentally dependably bet

(09:18):
on Boston to win this game?No, not at all, not with
the way they've been turning the ballover. Forty five turnovers in the first
three games of this series, fifteena game, fifteen exactly in each game,
by the way, and you knowhow many of those, adam have
been committed by Jason Tatum and JaylenBrown. I won't cheat and look it
up. Let's see. Let meguess total of forty five turnovers Brown tape.

(09:41):
I just I want to say,like twenty three, twenty three turnovers
by your two superstars in the firstthree games of this series. They are
just getting absolutely crushed on the scoreboard, mentally, whatever you want to call
it. Miami is just run circlesaround them. And that's just I don't

(10:03):
want to put the blame on JoeMissoula, but he's certainly on the list.
He is certainly on the list.And Eric Spoelstra is just absolutely coaching
circles around him in this series.And for the Celtics to make history or
even you don't forget that, justto even win a game, let's get
this extend this series out the twoThe Jay's need to show up tomorrow night.
It's the only way the Celtics haveany shot and but right now it

(10:26):
just looks like they don't want it. And I listened, I've listened through
Malcolm Brogden's media availability today multiple times, and it's just they just he just
they just sound defeated. They justsound defeated and like they know the end
is. It's just it's coming.It's nice to see as I listen to
you and sort of peek over tomy television, what fight looks like?

(10:46):
The Lakers who took the first half, they took each of the first two
quarters of this game facing elimination,had a very strong first half. But
Denver, who is the team thatis looking for a nice, healthy what
ten day break perhaps going into uhuh you know, a you know,
avoiding a game five, trying toclose this thing out tonight, even in

(11:07):
La saying no, no, we'renot going down that easily. We don't
want to play you again. Atwenty four to eight advantage in the third
quarter right now, in the firstalmost eight minutes, to now take a
one point lead in this game,you gotta I respect it. I respect
the fight, Yokich Murray already attwenty points apiece. Murray, by the
way, who uh you know,as I Chase props. Could use a

(11:30):
couple of three pointers for Murray somehow, he's over for four. Could use
a couple of those another Yeah,yeah, I mean, he's just just
about there. He's got one moreassist and he'll be there already at thirteen.
And I think I took foolishly,I guess, although it was looking
pretty good for a while. Ithink I took under thirteen and a half
boards for Yokich and he's sitting rightat thirteen, so that's as good as
dead. On the other side,Davis, they're just barely even going through

(11:54):
him. I mean, two fornine. I think he was two for
eight for for a while before heeven got that. I think it must
be one shot in this quarter.I think he was two for eight to
be a half. He's only atnine points, so Lebron's getting a little
bit of help. Reeves doesn't havea three pointer at this point. He's
only taken one, which it's likethey're not even playing their game just and
I'm evaluating that on the box score, but it's it's like they're they're not

(12:18):
even doing what they typically do.Anyway, We're gonna break Matt Lamark is
going to join us on the otherside, help us, like I said,
make some sense of how to betthe Celtics in Game four in Miami.
He joins us next on the Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman. You know is
this is just the fourth week ofthe Gambler with Adam Kaufman. We like
to have a healthy rolodex of guestskids. A rolodex, you see,

(12:43):
is where you have a whole bunchof people's numbers, usually on business cards,
and a little portfolio you can flipanyway. We haven't gone to the
well to ask guests to come ona second time too often, try and
avoid it just out of respect forthem and time and the generosity that they
show us. But you know what, we've done it tonight. We've done
it tonight to bring back our buddy. Matt Lamarca covers the NBA among other

(13:09):
sports, but NBA is what wecare about tonight for DraftKings, for Action
Network Props dot Com, Matthew Berry'sFantasy life to us from work over there
as well, and we are goingto talk conference finals, not just the
Celtics, but obviously the game thatis happening right now, which is turned
into a game the Nuggets and Lakersin La Lamarca. How are you,
buddy, Hello, gentlemen. Goodevening. I'm doing a lot better than

(13:33):
it seems like the Boston Celtics aredoing at the moment. Well, I
think everybody is. I'm also notso sure that's true. Like I feel
like we need to, you know, put put some sort of a psychological
exam out for you. Because youtweeted earlier today that you enjoyed the remake
of White Men Can't Jump, andI'm telling you give it a shot.
That's not a healthy mindset. Giveit a shot. I went in expecting

(13:58):
to hate it. I love theoriginal. I hate, you know,
sort of the Hollywood thing where they'rejust remaking classic movies that don't need to
be remade. But this one wasn'tbad. Guys, I'm telling you give
it a shot. If you're lookingfor a little late night watch after this
Lakers Nuggets game ends, all right, it could happen. I'm not above

(14:20):
it. I watched the remake ahouse party, so you know, if
I could watch that, I couldcheck out the remake of White Men Can't
Jump. I don't know about JackHarlow, but we'll see we'll see anyway,
tell us Lamarca because we were justsort of lamenting in our previous segment
a little bit about where the Celticsare in this series, how they've gotten
to this point and most importantly,because everyone around Boston is fixated on the

(14:43):
future and what do you do inoffseason thoughts like you would forget if you
looked at Twitter, that there's evenstill a game or more left in this
series. Everybody has already moved onbeyond it and just assuming that it is
over. And that's not what wedo here. We talk betting. Could
you, with any conviction bet Bostonat even money, even, you know,
at plus money on the money lineto come out and win this game

(15:09):
four in Miami? I think youcan, and I think I probably will.
There's a lot of you know,noise with the Celtics right now.
Is Jalen Brown hurt? Have theyquit on Joe Missoula, does Jalen Brown
want to be there? Etc?But this is still We're getting, you

(15:31):
know, the number one team inbasketball for most of the season in whatever
metric you're looking at. We're gettingthem plus points in some spots against a
team that just snuck into the playoffsin a game that they need to win
or their season will be over.I get that the Heat are better than

(15:54):
all their regular season metrics indicate.I've kind of been preaching that all postseason,
but I still think that the Celticsare the better team. I know
that that sounds crazy after you know, the egg that they laid in Game
three, but guys like uh DuncanRobinson and Max Struss and Gabe Vincent,

(16:14):
They're not going to shoot fifty pluspercent from three every night. And I
do think that, you know,at least Jason Tatum will come out and
play much better in Game four.So I'm expecting them to try and Maybee.
That's asking a lot for a professionalbasketball team, but you know,
I think we kind of saw it, at least in the first half with

(16:37):
the Lakers. These guys do havesome pride. They're not just going to
roll over and accept their fate.So I like the idea of taking you
know, the Celtics as small underdogsor even on the money line. The
Sharps earlier kind of trending in thatdirection as well, from what I can
tell, So I think that it'sgoing to be you know, a sharps

(16:57):
versus squares type of battle where thepublic is going to be all over the
heat, but the professional action isgoing to be on Boston. Obviously,
Lamarca, this isn't a Game seven, but the Celtics with their season on
the line, they have to havethat main mentality. So you think back
obviously to what they did in Gameseven against Philadelphia, blew them out of

(17:17):
the water to advance to face Miami. And Tatum you mentioned him, he
was the catalyst had in a playoffrecord in a Game seven with fifty one
points. So do you try andget a little fancy, I guess in
terms of finding some value or anopportunity to make money, or you're just
getting a little not creative, that'snot the right word, but you know
you're you're really isolating this spot whenit comes to props, like, for

(17:41):
instance, Tatum's over over under forpoints is twenty nine and a half,
and obviously you're you know it's you'reyou're not even getting plus money on that.
It's a big number. But youknow, if if you were so
confident he's going to go over that, do you start to kind of look
around and you say, all right, well, maybe I could get Tatum
at thirty five plus at at plustwo forty or forty plus at plus seven

(18:03):
hundred, Like I think if anyoneis going to explode tonight, he is
the guy. Yeah. I thinkthat that's a pretty nice correlation play.
If you're playing the Celtics, maybeyou build a little same game parlay and
you take the over on Tatum's pointsprop, or even go over one of
the alternative props. I'm with you. You know, in this series,

(18:25):
you look at it, Jaylen Brownactually leaves this team in usage through the
first three games at like thirty onepercent. Tatum is at twenty nine.
I don't think that that really cancontinue in game four, and not at
least if they're trying to win.You know, Brown has just been really
ineffective, and whether or not he'sinjured or not, I don't know.

(18:47):
But Tatum's their best players. Heneeds to start acting like it. I
would expect a increased usage rate ina winner, go home spot. So
yeah, I kind of like thecorrelation that you can get with Tatum and
the Celtics to win the game.Matt, it sounds like you're expecting the
Celtics to actually show up and trytomorrow night in Game four. So I'm

(19:10):
looking at the first quarter in firsthalf lines here and they're both pickums.
Do you feel those are smart movesto make back in the Celtics there?
Yeah, I mean I kind ofwant the full game, I think,
you know, I want if youthink that Boston is the better team,
you know, kind of the waythat I do. I want the full
forty eight minutes. And again,I know that it hasn't looked like they're

(19:32):
the better team throughout this series,but I want as many minutes as possible
for them to, you know,realize their talent advantage and deal with any
sort of shooting variant from Miami,because you never know, they could start
the game hot and then cool offas things go on. So I would

(19:52):
probably lean Swarts the full game.But you know, I think that there
is, you know, a narrativewhere the Eltics come out and throw their
best best punch first, sort oflike we saw tonight with the Lakers and
with the Lebron James where it seemedlike he might have emptied his gas tank
in that first quarter. Certainly feelingthat way at the end of three after
getting outscored by twenty. Boy doesthat sound familiar? Third quarter outscored by

(20:18):
twenty. The Nuggets are now upby five and of course putting the Lakers
on the brink one quarter left potentiallyin their season after having such a big
lead early. So we will continueto focus in on the Celtics, talk
about some other prompts or lines thatLamarca on us we may be eyeing for
tomorrow, and of course we willcontinue to peek in on what is happening
between eat the Nugs and Lakers,and and and later on before this hour

(20:42):
is up, and before we letLamarca go, he can help us build
out the People's part lay, whichone the last time that Lamarco was part
of it. So let's see ifwe can make that two in a row
as well. And we got wegotta change the luck on the People's part
lay of late. More on thatcoming up in a little bit as well.
So halfway through the first hour morewith Lamarca on the other side.

(21:02):
This is the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Need a venta bad bad bets.
You've come to the right place.Tell us about it. Call six one
seven two six six six eight sixsix one seven two six six six eight
six eight, or if you're listeningon the iHeartRadio app, use the talkback
button. The Gambler with Adam Kaufmanwill be right back after this on w

(21:26):
r K. Oh. Well,I did it. During the break,
I placed the bet Jason Tatum fortyplus points parlayed with a Celtics money line
win. I did it, DanWatkins, Wow, Well, and you
feel good about that. I didn'tsay that. Oh okay, I just
said I placed the bet. Idid. Look full disclosure, it is

(21:48):
not a lucrative investment. I lostconsiderably more on baseball so far tonight than
I invested into this little Tatum parlay. Matt Lamarca Reach joins us from DraftKings,
from Action Network, from Matthew Berry'sFantasy Life from props dot com.
He's all over the place. Howdo you, I mean, do you
ever sleep? How do you evenfind time to watch terrible remakes of movies?

(22:14):
Yeah? I get plenty of sleep, But you know, it's just
more sporadic and spread out than maybesome other people. It's very relatable.
The Lakers, by the way ofstorm back to tie this game, so
we will continue to keep an eyeon it, and yet somehow, some
way, like the props that Icare about aren't hitting right now as we
are early in the fourth quarter,which is driving me up a freaking wall.

(22:37):
But as we continue to look aheadLamarca to tomorrow. We talked about
Tatum, We talked about you know, the full forty eight minutes versus half,
you know, Dan was asking aboutthat before the break, and just
level of confidence in Boston in general. What are some other aspects of this
game that you would feel comfortable bettingon going into tomorrow. Yeah, so
I think in the prop mark it, I'm mostly interested in fading some of

(23:03):
the key role players, guys whohave been playing really well. The guy
that kind of jumps out to meas a fade candidate here is Caleb Martin.
He has just he has way outperformedhis typical shooting metrics, particularly in
the last two games. He's averagingnine field goals per game made on thirteen

(23:26):
and a half attempts, shooting fiftypercent from three point range. Just don't
see that continuing. So I likean un boring prop. You can get
that at plus one ten on draftings. I think that's solid number. And
I'm also interested in some of theGrant Williams props. There's not a ton

(23:49):
of them out yet, but Iassume they will be posted. I know
that Grant Williams is kind of ameme right now for the whole Jimmy Butler,
he asco and poking the just sodumb. I do think he has
been effective on the court, youknow, at least more effective than some
of the other guys like Al Horfordgot played off the floor in Game three.

(24:14):
They really haven't gotten much from Malcolmbrockson Grant Williams has played okay.
At least he you know, isgoing to give you some hustle on the
defensive end. So I would probablybe interested in taking some of his overs.
His minutes have been trending upwards,and I don't necessarily see why that
would change. Is there a ifyou're trying to guess, right, you're

(24:36):
trying to kind of read the room. You're you're thinking, all right,
I'm Joe Missoula, what would Ido differently? In Game four? For
instance, Earlier in the series,we knew that the double bigs weren't working,
and it seemed like a matter oftime before he would start to go
smaller. He did that Rob Williamsall of a sudden, you know,
coming off the bench and and DerekWhite reinserted into the starting five. Well,
okay, now you're on the brinkof elimination. Is there another change

(25:00):
potentially that Missoula may make, whetherit's to the starting five or it's the
rotation in general, to where youcan basically say there are more minutes that
are going to be going to playerX than there have been so far,
and this is a guy I couldtarget in terms of some overprops. I
had been thinking about that. Iyou know, I thought about that a

(25:21):
lot today with the Lakers, specificallywith D'Angelo Russell. I thought that there
was going to be a good chancethat he fell out of the starting lineup
and possibly even out of the rotationentirely. That hasn't happened, but he
didn't start, so I did atleast, you know, get the win
there, I suppose. But Idon't know if there's a similar type of
move that the Celtics can really make. Right, you know, like there's

(25:44):
nobody on the bench that you lookat and say, well, this guy
has been great, or there's nobodythat you can single out in the starting
lineup and say, this guy isthe reason that we're getting killed. You
know, the Lakers, they're onall metrics, buffle on the floor.
They we're getting just destroyed. Andwhen he was, they were, you
know, plus points in the series. So I thought that was an easy

(26:08):
fix for them to make. Idon't really see one of those for Austin.
And you know, considering how goodthey were during the regular season,
do you really want to, youknow, make a Derek White for Grant
Williams type substitution. I don't knowif I see that happening. I think
that more than likely they will keepthe same starting five again. I think

(26:32):
the change is that Grant Williams justplays a little bit more off the bench
than usual. You know, hewas kind of a dnpe even at times
during the seventy six or series,but I think he's kind of a sixth
man at the moment. Matt.The one aspect we really haven't touched on
yet is the total in this one. I'm seeing it at two sixteen,
two sixteen and a half some places. They've been at or above two sixteen

(26:56):
in all three games, so they'vegone over twice and they pushed it ones.
How do you feel about this numbertomorrow night. Yeah, I think
how you feel about the total ultimatelydepends on how you feel about this game.
If you're like me and you dothink that the Celtics are going to
win, I think that they aregoing to have to hold the heat to

(27:17):
you know, much fewer points thanthey've been scoring. Maybe some of these
wide open threes or you know,even contested threes that Miami has been knocking
down all series, maybe they startto rim out. So I think that's
kind of another piece that you couldput into a same game parlay would be
the under in a Celtics win.I think ultimately, if the Celtics win

(27:42):
is a bit more lower scoring anddefensive, and if it goes over,
it's likely because Miami is going tocontinue knocking down pointers, and in that
scenario, there's a good chance thatthey end up winning the game. Lamarca,
we well did the people's part layingthe next segment. So while we
have a little bit of time leftin this one, I guess I'm just

(28:03):
wondering. Maybe it's a maybe.Live betting is ultimately the most important thing
to talk about right now, isit? Relates to this Nuggets Lakers series
because we don't know if there isgoing to be a game five. You
know, you could obviously look atthe futures market a little bit, although
I think we all expect Denver towin the series no matter how long it
takes. So Denver has elevated understandablyto the favorite to win the championship as

(28:29):
well. I'm seeing them at minustwo ten. Miami is obviously second at
plus two twenty. Is there anythingrelating to this Nuggets Lakers series, be
it going forward or just right nowin terms of trying to live bet who's
going to win this thing? What'syour perspective? Yeah, I think the
Nuggets are going to get it done. I mean, they're nursing a small

(28:52):
league here, but this is familiarterritory for them, right I Mean,
basically, all three of the firstgame in the series have come down to
the wire, and it's come downto you know, which team can execute
best at end of game situations.And I just have a lot more confidence

(29:12):
with the Nuggets in that department thanI do with the Lakers right now.
Whether it's you Kitch or Jamal Murray, you know, Michael Porter Junior can
knock down shots. Somebody out thereis going to be able to hit the
big shots for Denver, and Idon't necessarily know who that guy is.
For the Lakers, Lebron has beenincredible so far, but you know,

(29:33):
his shooting is still a little bitof a question mark as far as in
the playoffs and in this series overallbefore tonight. So I'll think my chances
with Denver's execution gear down the stretchas opposed to LA's. All right,
So I love some of the liveparlay combos that you can get at some

(29:55):
of these books, and I'm lookingat some that are intriguing to me right
now, and I want your thoughts. You're gonna You're gonna influence me one
way or the other right now,buddy. So the Nuggets are up by
two with seven and change to goin the fourth quarter. Lebron James thirty
eight points, eight rebounds, eightassists in forty minutes. By the way
this guy may play online, youcan get Lebron to score fifty plus points

(30:18):
and the Lakers to win. Soyou're banking on La doing it. That's
plus fourteen hundred. You could doLebron and a triple double, which he's
practically at and a Lakers win plussix fifty or this one is intriguing to
me as well. Lebron seventy plusPRA points, rebounds, assists, and
he is right now at fifty fourseventy seventy plus PRA A plus seven hundred.

(30:44):
Can I talk you into any ofthose? No? Thank you?
Yeah, I mean I guess ofthe three, I would take the triple
double one. I mean, Lebronscoring twelve more points here in the final
seven and a half minutes. Whileit's doable, I don't think it's all
that likely. Um, and youknow a game that I just talked about,

(31:07):
how I think that the nuggets ofthe team is going to win this
game? They're they're kind of decidethat I would prefer on some of these
parlays, but um, you know, being the Lebron's the closest to the
triple double of that group, Iwould probably side with that one. But
I don't love any of them.If I'm being honest with you, Hey,
that's okay. I That's that's whatwe want you here for. We

(31:27):
don't want you to tell people togo spend stupid money. So I'm just
bo I'm intrigued by these yo kidsshould with with no game outcome just fifteen
plus assists a little better than evenmoney. It's plus one twenty five.
He's at twelve right now, sothat's another one you could also, you
know, so it's there. Thereare so many options. There's so many
options that are they are a livescoring prop for Jamal Murray. Jam that

(31:52):
I would like, Yeah, JamalMurray to score thirty plus and Denver to
win. And he is at twentytwo points right now. That is plus
three four. Yeah, that one. I'm that one. I'm interested in
eight more points for Mry. Imean that's light work with what he's done
in the fourth quarter for most ofthis series. Yeah, and the guy

(32:12):
hasn't hit a three pointer yet,so I just feel like he's due,
Yeah, a three and whatever hedoes, he's proven that he can make,
you know, contested shots at theend of the game, step back,
twos, threes, whatever it needsto be. I expect him to
beat the guy that kind of getsand I gets across the finish line.

(32:34):
I'm gonna think about these during thebreak when we come back. Lamarca rejoins
us. We will build out thePeople's Parlay. On the other side,
this is The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Sick and tired of old sports talk
and want to get right into theaction. The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
As you covered, call us nowin six one seven, two six,
six six eight six eight. That'ssix one seven, two six, six

(32:58):
six eight six eight. The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman will be right back after
this on WRKO, we are backfinal segment of the opening hour here on
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Itis time to build out the People's Parlay.
Matt Lamarker rejoins us from DraftKings Props, dot Com, Action Network,

(33:19):
Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life as well.Lamarca has been part of the People's Parlay
once before. It was successful andit's something that I tweeted out. I
think it was yesterday two days ago. Transparency is everything in the betting space.
You celebrate your wins, you ownyour losses, and that in mind.
I have to tell you last weeknot good for the People's PARLAYA.

(33:42):
It was not good, very veryprofitable overall. But last week we went
oh for four brutal. So Lamarcaneeds to turn us around. He needs
to at least do his part withhis leg. He'll have a leg,
Dan, We'll have a leg.I'll have a leg. And we will
build this together. We will placethe bet together, we will put a
whatever, some of money. Itis up to you know, the people
placing the bed. Obviously, betwhat you want to bet. Lamarca last

(34:05):
time around, I think it wasa quarter une. As he said.
We will see what he decides todo tonight. But the parlays here's what
I will tell you for anyone thatis skeptical through three weeks, the parlays
on the show, the People's parlaysix and six better than most, and
the straits if you were to justplay the straight legs twenty four, eleven
and one. So overall we havebeen very profitable for the people. Let's

(34:27):
see what we can do this timearound, Lamarca. I've got the book
open. Start us off, allright, I'm gonna do it so you
guys can't block me here by takingsome heat stuff. I know how down
your Celtics fans are, so I'mtaking the I'm taking the Celtics money.
Lie it took my pick your jerk, keep going. I just think that

(34:51):
this team is too good to beswept out of the playoffs this unceremoniously,
and maybe it will happen. Imean, there's no denying that Jimmy Butler
and the Heat have played incredibly wellthis postseason. But it's just it's hard
for me to just disregard everything thatwe thought we knew about these two teams

(35:13):
plays, and the fact that youcan get the Celtics on the money line
at even money or better even.It's just it's too tempting for me to
pass that up. So I'm gonnatake it, and if they lose,
then I will look forward to listeningto all the people talk about how this
team needs to be completely overhauled inthe offeason. Dan, what do you

(35:35):
have? All Right, I'm gonnago baseball, and I'm gonna go Texas
Rangers money line taking on the Piratestomorrow night. I could get cute here
and go run line, but wereally need to win and a bounce back
here for the people's parlay, soI'm just gonna go money line. It's
Nathan Vivaldi who's been lights out sofar this season for the Rangers taking on
Rich Hill, so a battle offormer Sucks pitchers in this one. Texas

(35:57):
has the best lineup in baseball rightnow and they are just absolutely crushing left
handed pitching. They're hitting like twoninety five as a team against lefties this
year, which is just absurd.So they lost tonight, so let's get
to bounce back win for the Rangersand we'll take them money line. It's
minus one sixty five. I'll bebetting the run line solo in addition to
this, but for the parlay moneyline. So, guys, I was

(36:17):
thinking about doing a prop in theCeltics game, and one that does jump
out at me, and I probablywill play this as a straight. I'm
not including it in the People's Parlay, but I want to mention it because
I do like the bet, whichis Marcus Smart over three and a half
rebounds. I do feel good aboutthat one, but I don't know that
I feel so good that I wantto be the one that potentially sinks the

(36:38):
People's parlay if he winds up withthree, as he has done so many
times before. So that in mind, Unlike Dan, I am going to
get a little cute here. Witha run line, except I'm going to
do it in a very obvious spot, which is Seattle against Oakland Marco Gonzalez.

(36:59):
Really yeah, I'm gonna do it. We all know how I feel
about the Oakland days, and they'veburned me before, coming back, you
know, at the wrong time.So not only am I banking on them
losing obviously, but losing by multipleruns. But I am going to do
it. I am going to doMarco Gonzalez, the Seattle Mariners on the
run line, which is, uh, that's gonna put us, you know
with that depends on the book obviously, but with the Celtics money line,

(37:21):
the Rangers money line, and theMariners on the run line, that has
me not quite but pushing plus fivehundred, which I think is a respectable
people's parlay. I have plus fivehundred on the dot. So there you
have it. I mean, thereare a lot of interesting spots. I
will mention that's you know, well, we'll talk more about later when we're

(37:42):
putting the show to bed in aboutan hour. But you I mean,
as far as money line goes,you could look at the Padres, the
Twins, Derek Cole for the Yankees, tomorrow night, right, Yankees.
As you mentioned, I do reallylike the over in the Blue Jays Raise
game the Rangers Pirates game, butI'm gonna stay away from the total.
I'm gonna get cute with the runline, So lamarcam, I'm gonna place

(38:05):
the bet, and I thank youvery much for being part of this once
again. I hope, I hopethat you go too for two on the
People's parlay. We need you,Matt. Nothing would make me happier.
And before I go, I gotone quick MLB future that I want to
give out. Please New York Metslast Division winners plus seven hundred. Oh,

(38:27):
they're five games that act with morethan one hundred games left to play,
and I understand that the Braves arereally good, but the Mets are
pretty darned good to themselves, andwith the way that their young kids have
bolstered things recently, I'm not willingto write off the division for this yet.
So seven one teams seems pretty juicywith the amount of games left in

(38:52):
the season and the number of headto head matchups still yet to play between
these teams. Tell you this,they are not good on days that I
bet them. Lamark the Mets orenemies of this program generally leave them alone.
I guess I will. Lamarca,thanks so much for hopping on bud
Absolutely, guys, have a goodone. You know. I'm glad that
he gave us that Mets future becauseit transitions us very well to baseball,

(39:15):
which we are going to do plentyof with Charlie Disterco in the second hour
of this show. A colleague ofLamarca is over at the Action Network as
a matter of fact, so wewill look into some baseball when we come
back, and obviously talk about what'shappening. Sweat out the end of the
Nuggets and Lakers Game four as well. In Los Angeles is The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman. Another hour of TheGambler with Adam Kaufman is coming up on

(39:38):
six eighty w r KO, streaminglive on the iHeartRadio app and on your
smart speaker. Just ask it toplay w r KO on iHeartRadio. Gambling
problem Hope is here. Call oneeight hundred and three to two seven fifty
fifty or visit gambling Helpline MA dotorg. Stammining the betslip right now.

(40:00):
Very mixed results from that basketball game, which is a little bit unfortunate to
night. And and it seems likereally bitten by Jamal Murray or or Reeves
not getting a three pointer here orthere, that that was more or less
the death of me. That wouldhave been a night Anthony Davis scoring twenty

(40:21):
five. I'm happy you got tothe twenty. I really needed that.
If you've gotten to twenty five,it would have been a better day.
Those hats are something. What thehats? Oh, I haven't seen the
hat. Oh those that's like abig patch on the front of the hat.
There, Oh, now I seeit. Yeah, that's different.
It's a big patch. It's ait's a that can't be a comfortable hat
to wear. No do no likethe hats that really kind of like the

(40:44):
the like machine washable form fit toyour head right, you know, versus
the the like stiff new era youknow, like brand new, out of
the box Major League Baseball opening daykind of hat. No, no,
slight on new era. Like.I love the hats, especially once you
break them in, but that firsttime you put them on just you know,
like makes you look ridiculous. Imean they're the conference final hats.

(41:05):
So these are the only time they'regetting worn. Yes, right, I
hope no Nuggets fans are buying those, by the way, like your team
is gonna win the finals. Waitfor that hat, Luis Castillo, I
had him at under seven and ahalf case eight obviously. All right,
Well that's as good a way totransition as I can think of to Charlie
Disturco jumping in from Action Network coversMajor League baseball also college basketball, so

(41:29):
he hes a versatile fella and onthis program for the first time. Here
Charlie, welcome, hey, excitedto hop on and saw some baseball with
you. You know, it's beenan interesting way obviously overshadowed by the Western
Conference finals, but still you know, a couple of games going on here,
so I'm happy to be here.Interesting, yes, profitable for me,

(41:51):
largely not I made the mistake maybemaybe two dialed in on basketball,
but just sort of looking back throughthe day I had and I had some
totals that hit, but like Ihad, let's see, I god,
this frustrating, Like the Cardinals disappointedme. I think the Rangers, as
I recall, disappointed me. TheTwins like this just outcome after outcome and

(42:16):
props man like, we talk aboutthis all the time, Castillo being a
great example you. I check youout on Twitter. In addition to home
run props, which obviously you havea lot of fun with just regular basic
props. I know you're gonna giveus props for tomorrow that you like and
we'll get there. But just ingeneral, your philosophy, your strategy to

(42:37):
betting props, I'm curious to learnmore about it, because I am bitten
by the hook, especially with Case, I am bitten by the hook more
often than not. Yeah, it'sactually interesting. I kind of tend to
stay away from pitcher props, whichis funny. I almost actually took Carbreras
over today, which would have hit. But I kind of tend to look
toward hitters and where I can takeadvantage in that market. So obviously home

(43:00):
runs are one of the many thatyou can take advantage of, and I
mostly target total bases. As youkind of seen throughout my articles and stuff
that I write. It's a lotof it just comes down so looking toward
pictures that you want to fade,pictures that are pitching above expectation with alarming
numbers, whether it's expected batting averagein the high two hundreds or expected slogging

(43:22):
that's nearing four hundred, and thenyou get a positive split. So example,
tonight I gave out Freddie Freeman onGreen Dot Daily Action Networks Daily Show
and plus five hundred home run plusone fifteen over one of NAT total basis,
a double to deep and deep outfield, and then a home run that
barely stayed fair, cashing it.But it's just looking at a guy like

(43:45):
Charlie Morton who's pitching way above expectation, and then a guy like Freddie Freeman,
who, if you look at hislast fifteen days, has been tearing
the leather off the ball. Iquoted it was he's hitting above seventy percent
on total base over one NAT totalbasis in the last eleven days and he's
just been absolutely on fire. Soa lot of it's looking at like lefty
righty splits, righty lefty splits,expected metrics and how well players have been

(44:06):
hitting on like their rolling Wobar ISOover the last fifteen days or so.
I can't even count to the numberof times that I have and I'm not,
I'm not. I'm really not acash out guy, like I ride
it to the end. But thenumber of times that I will just sort
of check in on my bets andI'll see that, you know, team
X has a whatever, two threerun lead in the seventh inning, and

(44:30):
I'll look at it and I'll go, yeah, maybe, like it's it's
not you know, we're we're obviouslynot at full profits, so whatever is
it? Like they should be ableto close this out right, and then
it goes south on me. It'shappened to me so many times where you
know, I'm I'm passing on potentialprofit, not full profit, but profit
versus obviously nothing, which is whatI've wound up with. It makes me

(44:52):
wonder if there are times that Ishould be more fixated on first fives,
instance, as opposed to riding outthe entire game, because first fives,
I feel like, without tracking it, I'm just I'm just guessing. I
feel like I would have more successwith do you are you more of a
first five versus a you know,a full time guy. It really depends

(45:15):
based on the teams at hand,right, Like, if I'm betting the
Oakland Athletics a lot of the time, I might look toward a first five
if I like the matchup because theirbullpen has been atocious watching national tops and
scares the mess obviously if Robertson hadjust pitched the day before. A lot
of it you have to look athow the bullpen has been used in the

(45:36):
game's prior and that kind of willhelp you decide your positioning whether you want
to go a full game or firstfive. You know, the Red Sox
a lot of their bullpen arms arenot great tomorrow. I like Brian Bellow,
I am possibly looking at a firstfive, maybe the full game.
I'm not sure yet, still debatingon that, but based on their bullpen
usage today, which is a closegame, so all their high level drums

(45:58):
are likely to use, I mightlean toward a no over or first five
there. I think a lot ofit just kind of come down to bullpen
usages and whatnot. You know,I kind of mixed it up to be
fair. I know, like oneof my colleagues, Chanzarello, he likes
to kind of split it across theboard if he finds value on both.
I'm more of a stick to myguns, go with my gut, and
normally i'd say I'd say about itlike seventy thirty full game positions. I've

(46:22):
never won to hedge out though,so I'm, you know, dealing with
it in full stride and dealing withthose bullpen blowouts, blow ups just like
you are. Do you have aMickey moniac anytime? Home run tonight?
Because he just went deep in thebottom of the eighth to put the Angels
ahead of the Red Sox, Idid not. I actually stayed away from
that game. I was not touchingthat with a ten foot poll. Based

(46:43):
on the pitching matchups, these conditionswere not great for a lot of runs.
So but Mickey moniac, I mean, it seems like every time I'm
talking baseball, he hits the homerun. So maybe every time I end
up going on a radio show oron my daily show, I might as
well give it out because I havethree or four home months this year,
and every time it's been when I'vebeen talking the Angels or at some capacity,

(47:04):
I realized small sample size. Butthe guy's hitting four thirty. Yeah,
no, impress it's impressive. AndI mean, obviously he hits above
trout, Otani, Renfro all thoseguys, so you have to pitch to
him, so he's gonna get pitchesto hit, and you know he had
he was a herald a posts aboutcoming up. It's just a matter of
it coming full circle. And obviouslyit helps when you know you have the
greatest two hitters in baseball right behindyou. Arguably you mentioned that. Obviously

(47:29):
you're you're a big total basis guy, and that's, you know, the
bulk of the type of content thatyou give out in your articles. Dan
here was talking about Rafael Devers inour previous segment and betting him over one
and a half total basis. Tonight, he's got a single and then the
seventh thinning of all people to trythis but attempted to bunt for a hit,
and of course that worked out asyou would expect. So he's sitting

(47:50):
at just the pain on total baseright now, total pain, but absolute
pain. You know, he's aguy, And I realized Devers is not
having a Raffael Devers year by youknow, kind of historical standards. But
he is just one of those guysthat I feel like, you know,
I could throw money on his overone and a half total basis every single
night and and it just feels likeI don't know the metrics to actually prove

(48:14):
this, but it feels like itwould hit more often than not. Are
there certain guys that, almost regardless, just on a nightly basis, you're
inclined to target there, M yeah, I would say that, like there
are guys that I will look at. I don't like to take minus money
for total basis, So a lotof the time, someone like a bobus
Chet, who I love to target, I am not always able to jump

(48:37):
on board because he's a hit machine, but he also will be in that
twenty one thirty range when I geta picture that I like to fit against
the Blue Jay's offense. Jordan Alvarezis definitely one of those guys though this
past weekend I actually targeted is twoplus RBI at plus five hundred, which
hits on a solo shot in theeighth, but he had a sack fly
earlier. But it's it's just kindof like pitching matchups, right, So

(48:58):
if Jordan plays a righty, you'remore inclined to back your don above anybody
else in that as show's lineup,and and really it just matters on matchup.
So when Bret Rooker, for example, I was actually I was gonna
talk about this later, but BrentRooker, perfect example tomorrow against Marco Gonzalez.
He's playing Marco, who is oneof the biggest FAID candidates that I

(49:19):
have. All season long, Icontinually fade him start up to start.
Has a four sixty five expected plugging, a two ninety one expected batting average,
and a five thirty nine expected herright, so he does not trike
out batters. He's okay with thiscommand. And Brett Rooker is absolutely incredible
against left handed pitching a two hundredand four WRC plus. He's hitting three
eighteen with a one one zero eightOPS. So like when I see a

(49:43):
lefty against the Athletics, my firstthought is I'm probably batting Brent Rooker over
anybody, which is funny. Intwenty twenty three, we're talking about betting
Brett Rooker against the lefty almost everysingle time. All right, let's get
more of Charlie Disturco's picks for tomorrow. Look ahead at the slate. Some
of the prompts that are jumping outat him. We're going to do that
when we come back. So Charlie, hang with us. We will be

(50:04):
right back on the Gambler with AdamKaufman. Sick and tired of old sports
talk, and want to get rightinto the action The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
As you covered, call us nowwith six one seven two six six
six eight six eight. That's sixone seven two six six six eight six
eight. The Gambler with Adam Kaufmanwill be right back after this is on

(50:25):
WRKO. We are back Kaufman Watkins. We have got Charlie jesterco from Action
Network covers baseball college basketball. Ofcourse that season's aways away. Our focus
right now is what's happening on thediamond, and obviously, Charlie, I
want to get into your thoughts abouttomorrow the slate props guys, you know,
situations, matchups, everything that youthink you are going to be targeting

(50:49):
is you know, we haven't evenfully wrapped up to Monday night slate.
But it's always good to look aheadand help people place their bets. That
being said, our guy Dan here, he's got a question for you.
Yeah, Charlie, So I amlooking at this Braves Dodgers game tomorrow.
The Dodgers are bringing up their toppitching prospect, Bobby Miller. He had
a RARA in triple A A fivesix five so far this season and he's

(51:10):
going against that Braves lineup in Atlanta. What do you make of this game?
As I'm looking at Vison right nowat their splits, seventy nine percent
of the money is on Braves runline. Yeah, so I'm not particularly
a big run line guy. Iparticularly like I look towards the money lines
and where I see value in thatsituation. As far as just the matchups,

(51:35):
Besser Scheider is incredible, to saythe least. He's probably gonna win
the Cy Young Award one eighty twoext the batting average of two sixty nine
expected the array. He does havesome concerns where you can get hit hard
from time to time and give upa home run or two, as we've
seen throughout this season. His lastlast start out actually get the Rangers.
He've had a pair of home runs. I mean, for me, it's

(51:57):
no play. I don't like touse really take a position on a rookie
coming up because you never know.Right we had we saw Bryce Miller come
up for the Mariners and he absolutelystart. And then we saw Grayson Rodriguez
come up for the Orioles and he'sbeen tattooed. And so there's some guys
I kind of like to get alarger sample size rather than looking at that

(52:19):
triple A stat line. With thatsaid, I mean if you're looking,
you know, maybe taken under onhis outs depending on what that comes out
at, or Strider over, becauseI do think that Strader matches up particularly
well here, and obviously the Dodgerssuch a hot hitting offense that even the
over is not a bad look.Yeah, it's only an eight for tomorrow
night, right, Yeah, Imean, yeah, it's obviously it's always

(52:44):
a giver take with Strider, right, Like you're you're like, oh,
he can go out and he cango seven eight innings of nothing, or
he could do what he did thelast month of the season, which is
where you know, some concern cancome in where he's been hit and he's
only lasted five or he's last hisfive innings and of his four stars this
month. So if he gets outand gets taken out early, that over

(53:04):
is more than live. But obviouslyyou're always taking a risk with Strider,
who can give you that eight solidscoreless innings? Fair enough? Ay?
Dan top nine Red Socks down byone plus eight ten on the money line
to back and win. What doyou think Wow. I just want Devers
to get up. I just wantDevas to having it batt in this sending.
Yoshida's up with one out, sowe got still got to go through
turn or two. I really justneed Raffe Devors to come so maybe he

(53:28):
can try to bunt again. Ican pull all my hair out here in
studio. Are you much Charlie ofa live better when it comes to baseball,
or you, just, as welike to say in the world of
Daily Fantasy, said it and forgetit. You know, you make your
bets, and that's that. Youknow, there's games that I look at
where if I do play live,I'm betting live in that first or second
inning where maybe like a couple ofruns came across and I'm expecting, you

(53:52):
know, a low scoring game,and whether it was like a blip on
an error or just a two runshot, I would take a lot position
on the under. Or you know, you go out and the pitcher gets
hurt. You can make a differentlove based on what they're going with their
bullpen. But for the most part, I'm kind of a bet it forget
it. I watch and pull myhair out just like you guys from every

(54:14):
single game, whether or not it'sprops or full game side or total,
it's it could be a grind.But yeah, I'm not. I'm not
huge into the live betting as muchas I am more just up you know,
overnight better that then kind of forgetsabout it and then adds throughout the
day as I see fit. Withall these West Coast games too, do

(54:34):
you you know I'm just someone thatI have trouble going to bed before the
betslip finalizes. Do you have towait all, you know, wait out
all these West Coast baseball games oryou contend to see the results in the
morning. You know, I wishI was able to go to bed,
but I for the both part andstaying up in my bed in the dark
with the stream off on my phone, watching the game, hoping for the

(54:58):
best. Uh. You know,I'm usually able if it's a you know,
an eight nothing game, Like ifI had the Mariners today against the
Athletics, I'd be like, allright, you know, time to go
to bed. But if the gameis within four runs, I have flashbacks
to you know, the Nationals blowingit to David Body how to walk off
Grand Slam, or the mess ofEdwin Diaz the Kurt Suzuki. So there's

(55:20):
like plenty of times where I've youknow, thought the game was over,
and obviously, you know, ninethinning blowoffs have other things to say.
Well good, at least I knowwho I can text at two in the
morning when the Dodgers are in thefourteenth thinning or something like that. Driving
me crazy. So tell me lookingahead to tomorrow, who do you like?
What do you like? I don'twant to, you know, put

(55:40):
you in a corner here. Whatdirection do you want to take us?
Yeah, I'll give out my favoritebet that I placed as soon as the
line dropped. It's moved up abit the over in San Francisco and Minnesota.
It's at seven and a half oneten, I see, is the
best number available right now. Igotta plus money. This is an interesting

(56:01):
matchup right You look at Alice Cobb, you look at Sonny Gray, you
see two guys with sub two earrays, and you're like, wow, seven
and a half kind of makes sensehere. But then you dig deeper into
the numbers and Alex Cobb is oneof the pitchers that I've been looking to
fade over. The next you know, couple of starts that he's gonna make.
His heart hit rate is near fiftypercent and his expected earras over two

(56:22):
runs higher than actual, and alot of that comes from an eighty eight
point one left on base rates,which is Garrett Cole and Jacob deGrom can't
even get a ninety percent less onbase rate. Alex Cobb is not going
to keep that consistent. The lasttime he played the Phillies, he only
made it three and the third inningstwo runs, five hits, five walks.
So he somehow Goudini's his way outof these games, and he's he's

(56:43):
getting a Minnesota lineup that hits righthanded, hitting right handed pitching well,
they're thirteenth in WRC plus there andtop ten in both walk rate and isolated
power, and Cobb his command cancome wonky at times, so I'm not
going to fade him and then justquickly. Sonny Gray impressive as he's been
too, where his increases, hisstrikeouts of increased. He does have some

(57:04):
concerns. He's expected her expected sfipping that low three range, and that's
over run higher than what he isright now. When the Giants are in
their best split, they crush righthanded pitching. You want to fade him
against lefties, you want to backhim against righties. Seven in w RC
plus against right he's fifth and walkright third night flight of power. A
lot of that comes because they havesuch a left handed hitting, left handed
heavy lineup. So I think bothoffenses are live year. I think both

(57:29):
pitchers are a bit overrated. SoI think a total of seven and a
half. It's something that you expectout of, you know, maybe like
Garrett cole and and about an averagepitcher or uh, you know, Spencer
Strider, George George Kirby, notSonny Gray and Alex Cobb. So that's
my favorite bet as far as rightnow for the overnight bulk of the money

(57:50):
as well, and it's being betup. You know, I'm seeing the
arrow bulk in the money. Morethan eighty percent of the handle is on
that over about seventy percent of thebets as well. What else do you
like? Yeah, So I'm currentlydebating on whether or not I take a
full game, first five or propposition on this, but the Rockies against
the Marlins is incredibly interesting matchup andif there's ever a time Austin Gomber pitches,

(58:15):
I'm going to have something on thatgame, whether it's a Marlins hit
or prop total basis home runs,whether it's a first five with Uri Prezz
Gamber is awful. And I'm notsure you guys that are watching him at
all this year, but he likethe fact that the Rockies still throw him
out as a starting pitcher is quiteliterally shocking to me. Expected batting average

(58:37):
of three ten and expected slugging afive fifty eight and his strikeout racer down.
He's not getting strikeouts, he's commandis whack, and he's not getting
swings and misses. So when youput that all together, he has to
throw his fastball, not his curveball. Well, how bad is his fastball?
Hitters are hitting over four hundred expectedagainst it. So the Marlins are
now in their best split. Theycrush left handed pitch, they ranked top

(59:00):
ten in WRC BLUs and will buyagainst it. And I'm looking and it's
in course field, so the ballis going to fly in that elevation,
So I'm looking at the props.I'm looking at the first five. Ury
Perez, I do think is duefor a little bit of negative aggression.
As good as his stuff has been, I think there's some concerns there,
just I don't think he can sustainwhat he has, but depending on where

(59:22):
the props come. Obviously, Idon't play anything minus money. Like I've
said, Jorge Solaire his top ofmy list of players that I want to
back, and he's this year.He's getting four hundred against leftie's with a
one one two five slugging, soyou look at how good it is.
He has thirty two at bats,thirteen hits. Seven of those thirteen hits
home runs, the other two doubles, so he has four singles and nine

(59:44):
extra base hits. So I loveoverrun nap to the basis here for Solaire
if it's plus money, and ifnot, I'm looking toward Ryan Dela Cruz.
He's been incredible and he is avery plus pitcher against left handed hitter
against left handed or Nick Fortez.Limited sample size, but he's looked incredible
thus far out of the game.Should overtake Stallings for that starting job at

(01:00:07):
the catchers. We only have maybeabout a minute a little bit less with
you here, but that this gameis a what you were just talking about,
perfect example of something that I askedyou about earlier. If you could
bet this game Marlin's minus one twentyfive on the money line versus Marlins minus
one twenty first five money line.You're more inclined to go first five,

(01:00:29):
right, Yeah. I think thepitching match up here Ury Perez Austin Gamer
is so stark that I think Igo toward the first five because when you
look at these two matchups here,Ury Prez is obviously the better pitcher,
and you've heard my rants about howbad Austin Gambra is and the Marlins bullpen
is nothing that we really want toback and then hold our fingers across our
fingers in chords. So yeah,I looked toward first five. I'll probably

(01:00:50):
end up playing it. Minus onetwenty two is too low for Uri Perez
and this Marlins team that crushes leftthese makes sense, Charlie, thanks very
much, a lot of great knowledgethere. Thanks jo Us again. You
know it's because we're gonna have basketballis gonna be done soon. We're gonna
have a lot of baseball to talkfor a couple of months here on this
show. Can't wait. I'm excitedto sweat some some games out with yet

(01:01:12):
at eleven twelve o'clock at night,forward to it. Charlie Districo from the
Action Network, thanks so much.Check him out obviously and find his work.
You can get him on Twitter.It's it's just uh at at his
name, Matt, Charlie Disturco,that is d I S t U r
c O. And uh, likeI said, Dan, a lot of
great stuff there, So let's uhyeah, and that soul air prop.

(01:01:32):
The props are actually out for thisgame already tomorrow night, which is shocking,
but Jorge Solaire is over two anda half total bases at plus one
fifteen, so they are expecting abig night. You rarely see the two
and a half total base prop.And I I have already placed the money
line first five bet on the Marlinsas well as the over in that San

(01:01:54):
Fran Minnesota game. So I'm I'mI'm telling our guy, We're to see
how it goes tomorrow night. Verygood. Not usually making the baseball bets
this early unless they're part of thepeople's parlay. But let's go. Let's
let's ride them. You know,have to make some of the ones that
Lamarco was talking about earlier, inaddition to, of course the Celtics money
line, which I mean a plusone hundred if nothing else, my head,

(01:02:17):
my heart, the combination of thetwo. You gotta do it.
We're gonna step aside. When wecome back, we'll be time to put
this show to bed already. Canyou believe it? No, it's time
to put this show to bed.With Michaelow. You know, I got

(01:02:37):
for I don't know why. Fora hot second, I got excited thinking
maybe it was Tuesday, because thatwould mean right about, you know,
by the time we're done doing allthe stuff that we're doing here with the
show, I could get a jumpon the new ted Lasso before bed.
Gotta wait about gotta wait twenty fourhours for that. Not there yet.
That's okay, that's all right.Well, it is time to put this

(01:02:59):
show to bed. Thank you.Maybe I'll go to bed earlier as a
result, Thanks so much to ourfriends at my Pillow, and I will
soon be resting my head on mypillow. Of course, we are looking
ahead to tomorrow's action, and wegot a head start on that with Charlie
Desturco. Thanks again to him forjoining us with great information for tomorrow's baseball
slate, as well as from MattLamarca relating to the Boston Celtics game tomorrow.

(01:03:20):
And I don't want to oversimplify this, and this is far from the
only thing going on in this series, but sometimes you just gotta hit your
shots. And what I mean bythat are you know my buddy Dan Greenberg
from Barstool Barstool Greene. He tweetedout some shooting percentages for the seas and
just overall averages and whatnot in thetwo rounds prior to the Eastern Conference Finals

(01:03:45):
versus where they are right now.Jason Tatum, his points, rebounds assists
have been pretty consistent. Shooting percentagepretty consistent, thirty five percent down to
twenty five from three overall forty fivepercent. That has remained stable. But
Jaylen Brown, my god, Jalenpoints rebounds assists twenty four to five three
averages first two rounds on fifty fourpercent shooting forty seven percent from three.

(01:04:11):
In the three game sample that isthe Eastern Conference Finals, twenty four to
five three becomes sixteen six three andthe fifty four forty seven thirty seven,
ten ten percent from three point range, He's completely disappeared. Completely. Marcus
Smart has taken a big step backshooting, not just shooting percentages, but

(01:04:33):
field goal attempts. Great first halfthough, yeah, absolutely, first half
of Game one anyway, Malcolm Brogden, you want to talk about a disappearing
act as well, forty three percentfrom three down to twenty five and his
fourteen point average has gone down toten. It's just it's it's been bad,
Dan Watkins, it has been badand as well as and this was

(01:04:55):
wild as well. Games two andthree open, wide open looks, open
or wide open looks. This isthis is not just like to the eye.
This is data that is tracked bythe league. Tatum two for nine,
Brown one for ten, Horford twofor eight, Brogden, oh for
seven, I Smart one for five. Again, I don't want to oversimplify

(01:05:16):
this, but heyr shots. Horford'snumbers actually better than I thought. Yeah,
yeah, I thought it'd be likepoint two five percent with Al.
I actually hit one last night inGame three. I'm like the first quarter,
I was like, Oh, okay, maybe All's gonna show up tonight,
maybe we're gonna give an aw game. No, we got like an
Al moment in the first quarter.So independent of the people's partlay, I

(01:05:41):
am on the Celtics money line tomorrow. I'm I don't know if it's head
or hard or both, but Iam choosing to believe that they will extend
this series. Force it back home, give us a couple more days at
least to talk about this. Idon't want to go all you know,
Kevin Millar and O four. Don'tlet us get hot or you know,
or anything like that. But Icertainly believe that if they do win Game

(01:06:03):
four, then you come back homefor Game five. I think we could
be looking at a game six.Oh boy. And I'm not saying that
they win in Miami, like maybeit ends there, but I do think
that a winning Game four becomes awinning Game five, and then you're looking
at a game six. So youthink we'll have the Celtics basketball Memorial Day

(01:06:24):
weekend, it's what you're saying,if well, I mean, obviously they
have to win tomorrow, but Ido think I think if they win tomorrow,
we will have a weekend game.Yes, all right, all right.
I just feel like they're just pathetic, no pride, no heart.
It's just it's just so infuriated.It's like past infuriating. I'm at the
point I'm just like it's just like, Okay, no, I can't tell

(01:06:48):
you the number of people that reachedout to me during the game last night,
like people that I normally text withduring Celtics games that said, midway
through the third quarter, I'm turningthis off. Yeah, I'm I'm putting
on a movie. I'm not watchingthis anymore. They they are not worthy
of my attention the way they areplaying right now. And if not for
the fact that I had some peopleover watching the game, I probably would

(01:07:10):
have done the same thing, right, I would have rather drove down to
Root one in Foxborough and Saton TaylorSwift traffic then watched that Celtics game last
night. That's how bad you're forpunishment, you still would have put it
on the radio. Yeah, right, So what are you? What are
you on tomorrow? Before we runtomorrow? So, like I mentioned,
really like the Rangers tomorrow, I'mgonna probably take them run line solo the
Braves. I know Charlie kind oftried to talk me off it, but

(01:07:31):
I'm gonna go all in there withSpencer stride around the mount against a rookie
and his first start in that Bravesoffense, and the Braves lost tonight the
Dodgers too, so I like abounce back game there for them. I
was on the Cardinals tonight as well. They lost it, lost an extra
inning, so they just couldn't pitchtonight. Basically it was the problem with
them. So they got waynewright,who hasn't been great? Tomorrow I might
might look at that one. That'sa high over in that game two ten

(01:07:54):
and a half Red's Cardinals. Andthen as far as the Red Sox tomorrow
night we got oh it's Bayo,so Bayo against Griffin Canning. That might
be an interesting one. I guesswe'll take a look at Bayo's k prop
tomorrow night. If it's right aroundfive again, might go after that.
Yeah, it's tempting. I didnot play the over tonight and good thing

(01:08:15):
obviously it was a two one loss, but I just you know, I
didn't feel great about it. Overnine and a half runs tomorrow, yeah
what it is? Yeah? Andthen one other one Western Conference Finals game
three nights. Stars might look ata Joe Pavelski anytime goal on this one
at plus one eighty. Okay,he hasn't scored in three games after having
like eight and seven against Seattle doyep, and they're back home in Dallas

(01:08:35):
some again. As I say,typically with baseball, I don't make the
bed till the next day. Butsome early things that I am looking at
Rangers money line in Pittsburgh, hopingfor a bounce back after they screwed me
today. Same story with the Cardinalsin Cincinnati. Maybe even the run line
there if I'm to get greedy twinson the money line against San fran And

(01:08:55):
obviously, you know, I feelstrongly about the Mariners on the run line
against Oakland's. We talked about itearlier and they're getting that job done tonight.
So I'd liked the over in thatgame eight and a half. There
you go, something to think aboutas well. All right, we gotta
run, But first show in thebooks for the week. You can catch
us Monday through Thursday, ten pmto midnight thanks to EJ, Thanks to
Dan, thanks to Lamarca and DiSturko. I am Adam Kaufman. This

(01:09:16):
is The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.Check out the podcast it'll be up soon.
For the best night's sleep you've everhad, go to Mikepillow dot com
and use the code Gambler. You'vebeen listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
on six eighty w r KO