Betting Tips for Upcoming Game 3's in NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final

Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Now wr KO presidents Boston's only nightlysports betting show, The Gambler with Adam
Kaufman covering spreads, props, parlaysand more. The Gambler starts now here's
Adam Kaufman. Oh, hell yeah, welcome in Monday night first to four

(00:21):
this week ten to midnight WRKO.It's The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. That's
me. Dan Watkins is here.Hello, that's him. E J.
Pacheco our producer. Hello, andwe will have ourselves some guests as well.
More on that in a moment.But guys, oh, I don't
know if it was the long weekend. I don't know if it's just you

(00:42):
know, even though Boston teams aren'tinvolved, he's still got the rush obviously
of Championship basketball and Championship hockey Gametwo with the Stanley Cup Finals going on
right now. We'll talk about itmore later. We're gonna talk plenty of
about the upcoming Game three. Lookback on what has happened between the Nuggets
and He so far. Surprisingly enough, that's a series, not even another

(01:03):
Red Sox loss in just a totalcrapbed of a series against the Rays.
Is gonna bring me down. It'sit's just good to be here with you
guys. Yes, it is,it is. It's it's just a great
time on the sports calendar. Imean, we can even get into a
little college baseball at some point asthe World Series gets going and what is
it like who I don't even knowwhen technically is it the World Series?

(01:26):
It's like the regional finals of theWorld Series. I don't know. But
still it's just a great time tobe a sports fan, you know.
Not only that, and I knowwe are a new show. We're still
finding our footing, finding our way. I like to think we hit on
most of the prevalence stuff right.Obviously, we talk heavily about basketball,
about hockey, about baseball, willbe nuts about football when it gets closer,

(01:48):
and even throughout the summer in thelead up, in training camps and
OTAs like, there's there will beno absence of football talk on this show.
We have worked in plenty of golfas well. We have done on
horse racing. But you know,and this is not coming tonight, So
this is not a tease. Thisis just me thinking out loud. We
have not really given tennis it's duerespect, you know, even when there's

(02:09):
something like the French Open going on, and we don't really acknowledge it all
that much. We should probably,And I am, by no means whatsoever
an expert in tennis, but Iknow people. I know people who work
in the tennis betting community. Weshould start to have some tennis guests on
Why not? I mean, Ithink this is the first time that the
word tennis has been said on thisprogram since Yeah. Now granted this is

(02:32):
what week five, so it's notsix. Oh gosh, that's right,
week six. And on that note, I would like to remind people a
couple of things, a couple ofhouse cleaning items. Right. If you
ever miss a section of the show, that's fine, you got your life
to live. Not everyone catches theprogram live, but I would encourage you
to check out the podcast. Theshow not always in its entirety, but

(02:55):
the most important segments, especially thosethat get you set up for the next
day, is betting, because there'snot a ton of betting. You know,
there's a lot of betting talk,but there's not a lot of live
betting that happens during this show.There's a lot of previewing the next day.
So I would always encourage you checkout the podcast wherever you get your
podcasts. They are available obviously acrossall the major outlets. You can find

(03:17):
us not only on the iHeartMedia website, but Apple, Spotify, Stitcher,
Pandora. All the links are availableto you if you don't just feel like
searching. They are in my pinnedtweet at Adam M. Kaufman. You
can get Dan on Twitter at DanWatkins Radio. So I do encourage you
check those out, subscribe to thepodcast. We really appreciate it if you
rate and review the podcast, allthat good stuff that everybody always tells you

(03:40):
about their podcast, and there areonly about a zillion podcast in the world
that everybody does that with, Sothat's one thing. The other thing,
we give out a lot of well, there are a lot of talking points
surrounding picks, like hey, howdo you feel about that? How do
you like that? Our guests certainlywill give out their best bets whenever they
are on, and we give themcredit a lot of the time they hit.

(04:02):
But we also have official show picks, which we do with our people's
parlay. At some point during theshow, either toward the tail end of
the first hour or second hour,kind of depends in part what's going on,
who the guess is, all thattype of stuff. So in the
spirit of transparency, ever since wetempted the gambling gods, the parlays have

(04:25):
struggled. They have. We startedsix and two through two weeks, and
as we enter week six, asDan pointed out, we are six and
thirteen. That's a tough one.You've been saving that one up ej oh
for the last eleven on the parlay. However, here's how I spend it
into a positive. It's not likewe're getting creamed. You know, these

(04:47):
are three leg parlays. Me,Dan guest three leg parlays, and oftentimes
we missed by one leg, whichmeans if you were to play the Straits,
and I always encourage you to dothat, it's just a smarter way
of betting. Parlays are a sucker'sbet. It's just we like to chase
that you know, that pot atthe end of the rainbow if you will.

(05:09):
But if you play the Straits,the record through five weeks is a
more than respectable, very profitable thirtyfive twenty one and one. So I
do encourage play the Straits, joinus in the parlay Fund will play the
Straits. We will have another People'sParlay for you later on. In fact,
we will probably do that during thelast segment of this hour with our

(05:30):
first guest who will join us injust under ten minutes, and that is
sharag Era. He has been onthis program before. He is a content
manager over at DraftKings. He ismostly an NBA guy, but does dabble
in the other sports. So we'llsee it. Dan, we should think
about this and we can talk tosharag about this. I texted with him
a little bit, but I wasn'tone hundred percent sure how I felt about

(05:53):
it, and so I kind ofleft the door open. I'm curious as
to your opinion. Like I said, more of a basketball guy than anything
else, right, And he's comingon to talk basketball with us. That
being said, he's part of thePeople's Parlay. There's no basketball tomorrow game
Threeason until Wednesday, so I toldhim I might be looking for a baseball
pick from him, because generally speaking, that's what's going on tomorrow. But

(06:15):
and we've never done this before,if we feel comfortable with letting a parlay
live for a couple of days,even if you and I give out baseball
plays for tomorrow, and he givesout a basketball play just means that if
we should happen to be successful tomorrow, the parlay will not be decided until
Wednesday. Are we okay with that? Or do we want a baseball play
from him? I mean, weneed all the good luck we can get

(06:36):
right now with these parlays, Soyeah, I'm on board. All right,
We'll leave it up to him.So he comes up, like I
said in about I don't know alittle less than ten minutes. He'll be
on with us for the bulk ofthis hour, and then a three time
guest on this show, which isnothing to sneeze at. He's not the
first, he's the second. MattMeisleman are superstitious three time guests who came

(06:56):
on throughout the celtics most recent disappointingseries. Jeff Ulrich, otherwise known as
the Fantasy Grind on Twitter, willjoin us during the second hour to talk
about what is going on in theStanley Cup Final and what is going on
is looking like Vegas is going tosteamroll at least tonight the Florida Panthers to
go up two in this series.It is surprisingly not even a competitive game

(07:21):
tonight, Sir Gaberbrovski, who enteredthis series as the favorite, the betting
favorite anyway, for the con SmiteTrophy, the playoff MVP in the NHL.
He has been removed from this gameafter he really struggled, which means
the Lion Alex Lion is back inperfect five out of five for him.
In his limited action, he's playedabout thirteen minutes of this game so far.

(07:43):
But this is one of the thingsDan that we talked about when we
were previewing this series with Paul Brunoand others, was if you think Vegas
is going to win. There werea lot of people, including Jeff by
the way, and we'll talk tohim about this, there were a lot
of people that were really feeling positiveabout Florida going into this series. Oh
yeah, But if you felt goodabout Vegas and you were trying to talk
yourself into all right, let's justsay Vegas wins this. Because it was

(08:07):
more or less a coin flip this. It's not like Florida the eight seed
was heavily favored or anything like that. So if you felt good about Vegas
going into this one, well,who is going to position himself for the
con smythe probably wasn't going to beAiden Hill unless he had just eight an
incredible series and so far working ashout out right now with a period to

(08:28):
go. But the guy that wejust kept talking about and it wasn't Jack
Eichel either, Jonathan Marches soo yefirst goal of this game assist as well.
He's up to two points already havinghimself a good series. And I
hope people place the bet. Ido. I hope people place the bet
because Marches so so. You know, it's it's it was over ten to
one before the series started, wasn'tright? Yeah? Yeah, I mean
it was. It was a goodit was good value on that pick,

(08:50):
very good, especially for a guythat now has nine goals in his last
nine games, like catching fire atthe right time. So I'm curious to
see. You know, people liketo say that what's the old adage or
the old saying, like a seriesis never over until the road team wins
a game, something like that.So the Panthers obviously are on track,

(09:11):
barring a miraculous comeback in the third, they're on track to drop both games
in Vegas. But it's in Vegas, you're going home. You have a
chance to tide the series. Sowe'll see. We'll get Jeff's opinion on
that a little bit later on.We'll offigure our thoughts as well. There'll
be plenty of hockey talk at plentyof basketball talk. Like I said,
so while we have a moment,we'll do a little bit more of this
later as well. But while wehave a moment, thank you Pittsburgh for

(09:35):
going up five four on Oakland.As I check what's going on in these
scores. Rangers meanwhile giving away athree o lead. I think it was
three oh one point. It wasdefinitely three one. It's now three three
Rangers and Cardinals. I bring thatup because the Rangers and Pirates very popular
picks tonight, whether you took themon the money line or the run line,
or both as I did. Bythe way, In fact, I
think I have a parlay featuring bothof them, so please both of you.

(09:58):
Pirates hang on in the top ofthe the ninth and Rangers figure it
out. You're in the top ofthe eighth or actually going to the bottom
of the eighth, so you're turnedto bat. The Red Sox today,
as mentioned, four one loss,it drops Boston back to five hundred.
The offense was largely non existent topitching not great. Bayo was fine,

(10:20):
you know, didn't really get anyhelp, you know, I guess to
his credit. And obviously we knowthe bullpen is not very good. But
trends have failed us with this RedSox team. You know, during the
Rays series for the most part,in terms of you know, we've talked
about the success of betting the RedSox overs you know, the whole game.

(10:41):
Looking at it, let's see,you know, hit obviously in the
first game, lost each of thelast three. We've talked about the Red
Sox going over their team total athome. Again. I believe that hit
in the first game with the fiveruns, but lost in each of the
last three. What do you makeDan right now out of what we're seeing
from the Sox or is it asimple Hey, they actually you know,

(11:01):
played a good team for a change. They are so perfectly mediocre it is
ridiculous, like they are just theydon't suck, but they're not good either.
They are just right there, smackdab in the middle. And just
much like the weather this weekend herein Boston, the Red Sox bats have
just gone cold, just it's they'vegone from red hot ending that series against

(11:24):
the Reds. It kind of carriedover into that first game Saturday of the
doubleheader, and then as the weathergot worse, so did the Sox bats.
And now they've only been able toscrounge up five runs over the last
three games, and of course they'velost those last three games. It's just
there are just problems and flaws thatjust when they are cold, you just
see all of the warts on thisteam, and that's what we're seeing right

(11:45):
now. Hopefully a nice trip toCleveland and then the Bronx can take care
of that this week. But Iwas gonna say six game trip on the
horizon here. In those first threeagainst the Guardians, yes, and two
out of three they took from Clevelandin late April, a couple of I
scoring affairs, or at least onthe Boston side, you know, an
eight seven win in ten innings,a seven one win over Cleveland to ultimately

(12:07):
take that series. That was withChris Sale on the mound. Who we
know is who the hell knows whenhe's going to be back on a mound
again. Obviously that's just the ChrisSale way, unfortunately, But what I
don't know. I'm I'm I'm almostat a loss. And we don't have
to decide this right now, We'vegot the whole show in front of us.
I'm almost at a loss trying tofigure out how in the world to
bet this team. Yeah, Imean, the only I mean the thing

(12:31):
is is that their pitching has beengetting lit up. So I'm still gonna
lean towards taking the over, justyou know, in case the Red Sox
bats to try decide to show upand some of these games, and Shane
Bieber is certainly not what he wasa couple of years ago. That's who
they're going against tomorrow. James Paxtonmeanwhile, has not been great lately in
his past couple starts. So tomorrownight's game could there could be a lot
of run scored in that one.It wouldn't surprise me one bit whatsoever.

(12:54):
And then when you have guys likeyou know, Yoshida, who's hitting really
well, Verdugo's hitting well, Devershas just hit or miss right now,
he's gone back down into the lowtwo forties with his batting average. And
then you know, Turner seems likehe might kind of be heating up.
But he had the one home runtoday, but yeah, I would lean
over, but don't feel great aboutit, doesn't Shane Bieber just scream future

(13:16):
Red Sox to you. Oh yeah, but one year, thirteen million dollars
while the Red Sox let somebody walkwho will have but not just that,
like when he's well after his prime. No, yeah, like he's gonna
be Klubern's Paxton, your Corey Klueber, exactly like these guys that like,
hey, remember when like Shane Bieberand we're not even close. He's twenty
eight years old. He's going tojoin the Red Sox on like you said,

(13:39):
a one year, fifteen million dollardeal when he's like thirty three.
Oh yeah, especially if I'm bloomstill. I can't even and I'm not.
It's not even like an anti highand bloom kind of thing. I
just cannot fathom a universe in whichhe is still here in like even next
year right now, hopefully, honestly, I hope. So, I mean,

(14:00):
how would you like that stat?Over the weekend, Adam, where
it turns out that, uh,the reigning A L and n L Pitchers
of the Month are Nathan Valdi andMichael Walker. The two guys that him
didn't want to pay this offseason,you know, and whatever, like we
don't we're not that type of show. We don't. We don't do that
kind of content because it doesn't reallyinvolve betting, but just as a you
know, and we gotta have tobreak in a second. But like the

(14:22):
Valdi thing, never surprised me,he was gonna get paid fine, it
made sense. No one seemed toeven and I brought this up a couple
of times. I couldn't. Itdidn't make sense to me why no one
was ever even talking about whether ornot they were going to resign Michael Walker.
No one's given up the answer tothat. Who got no like no
money in his new deal, youknow? And yeah, continues to pitch

(14:43):
one and he was largely for comparedto expectations. He was largely great for
them last year. So I don'tget that one at all. Eleven and
two or three three r A,I mean, what's not to like there?
But no, because San Diego gavehim four years, but still four
years, it's six and a halfa year is nothing, especially to a
team like the Red Sox all rightto four one game Now EJ is gonna

(15:05):
lose his mind. We're gonna breakbasketball talk on the way with Sharrock Hera.
You're listening to The Gambler with AdamKaufman. Sick and tired of old
sports talk and want to get rightinto the action. The Gambler with Adam
Kaufman. As you covered, callus now with six one seven two six
six six eight six eight. That'ssix one seven two six six six eight

(15:28):
six eight. The Gambler with AdamKaufman will be right back after this is
on w R K oh. Well, all right, I'd be the under
if you had under five and ahalf goals between the Golden Knights and Panthers
tonight, as I did somewhat reluctantly, but I did. I played it,
and another Marchiso goal. I believehe'll put Vegas on top five to

(15:50):
one. Now, So yeah,that's that's about where that stands. Michael's
keeping pace though, He's got assistson both of those goals, and he
kem back into this game after gettinglit up by Matthew Kachuck in the second.
Well, speaking of Kachuck, ifKachuck managed to score goal in this
game, I can still have myselfa very good hockey betting night. So
I don't even care Florida wins.I just need a Kachuck goal at some

(16:12):
point here in the next whatever itis, fifteen minutes and change. That
would be lovely, Matthew. Ifyou could do me that solid after torching
the Bruins, I'd appreciate that.Let's get into some basketball talk, though
I teased him, not literally.I just mentioned he was coming up.
Sharak here, a betting analyst managerof content over at DraftKings, rejoins this
program for the second time. Butit's been several weeks. I think we

(16:33):
had him on our very first week. In fact, I think our second
show. And so Sharak is backwith us. He'll do the People's parlay
with us a little bit later on, but right now after both of our
teams tragically eliminated by the ones thatare playing in the finals. He's a
Lakers fan, of course, miaCeltics fan. We're talking nugs heat,
Sharak, How are you, buddy, doing well? Doing well? Excited

(16:56):
to be back. It has beena minute and when you hit me up,
didn't even hesitate for one second thatI'm in I appreciate that you probably,
yeah, I'm in to just comeon to viscerate these two stupid teams.
Have you gotten over your Lakers eliminationor did you kind of see it
coming? Kind of both. Imean, I'm just glad that it was

(17:17):
a sweep, so I could havejust moved on. It was like the
pain you get the first two gamesthat they lost in Denver, and then
you see and then you see thatthey the Miami what they did in Denver,
and You're like, oh, theyhad it. But I'm just glad
that it would over the better teamone and let's hope the better team continues
to do work, because I'm notgonna be very happy if the Miami Heat

(17:40):
pull off the championship. So Iwell, I assume part of that comes
from, you know, bets thatyou have outstanding obviously on a finals champion,
but that notwithstanding for a moment,is the better team I know,
like obviously one seed versus eight seed. Of course, you know Nuggets are
a better team, but we're we'relooking at a split in Denver. Going
back to Miami for Game three onWednesday, Nuggets are favored expectedly, but

(18:03):
only by two and a half points. The money is very much both the
handle and percentage of bets is onDenver on the money line, it's about
a fifty fifty split on the DraftkingSports book Boat. The percentage of handle
is largely but that's closer to seventytwenty five on Denver. And while we
can get into totals a little bitlater on, but are you of the

(18:25):
mind like me, the Denver isgoing to come out and win this game
somewhat convincingly, meaning to go withMiami like, I don't think it makes
a whole lot of sense to allthese people that are out there, And
I've seen a lot of articles likeI'm taking Miami with the points. Well,
if you're doing that, you justbelieve Miami is going to win,
So why not go Miami on themoney line? I don't see this game
being decided by two you know,within two points? Correct? You do

(18:48):
not want to get Miami and crunchtime because you will lose. That They
have proven over and over and over. Even if Simmy Butler have a horrendous
game for the entire forty two minutesor whatever and change, he's gonna knock
down a random shot. Caleb Martinwill miraculously come off the bench and hit
a corner three, and that's what'sgonna happen. It's just it's in their

(19:12):
DNA. They are very well coached, and they know how to play,
and they know what sets they needto get to, and for whatever reason,
they can just turn it on andclutch time. So the Nuggets know
they need to lock in from themoment the ball tips off shoot. They
need to lock in from last night, from that loss. They need to

(19:33):
have been locked in already. Butfully convinced that Denver's going to take care
of business, they should win eight. I would say between six and eight
points here. Miami likely will getthe gertuitous whistle in their direction at home.
Free throws may go in their direction. But it all comes down to

(19:56):
three point shooting. And let's getover this. Spake high about what happens
if Yo gets scores forty or whatever, because if you drop the forty point
triple double, no one's gonna betalking about that little stat. So your
point about three point shooting, that'sthat's where I wanted to go because to
me, and I can say thisfrom experience, right, I could say
this from watching seven games against theCeltics, this is this is what is

(20:18):
going to separate. If you thinkMiami is going to win this game,
it's because you believe the Heat aregoing to flirt with a fifty percent success
rate from three again thirty three percentin game one, thirteen of thirty nine.
And the Nuggets were not good either, In fact, they shot thirty
percent from three in Game one,but because they are the better team,
they withstood that they can have abad shooting night and still win. If

(20:40):
Miami is you know, closer toquite frankly, it's regular season profile.
So when Miami goes nuclear in Gametwo and connects on seventeen of thirty five
for forty nine percent, that's howyou barely win, and you and you
take advantage of a Nuggets team thatagain shot sub forty percent from three point
range. So if you believe thatMiami is going to win, that's fine.

(21:03):
You can believe it like they've fooledenough people along the way or proven
enough people wrong along the way thatyou can say, yeah, I'm taking
Miami at home against Denver, ateam that isn't very good on the road
here in Game three, with themomentum, that's fine, but you're doing
it because you believe that struce orMartin or freaking Gabe Vincent who who was
out of this world right now,or Duncan Robinson, or a combination of

(21:26):
those role players. Notice I didn'tsay Jimmy Butler. You believe that those
guys are going to be the differencefrom long range. That's correct. Also,
Kevin Love getting inserted back into thelineup after you know, basically sitting
out the end of the Boston seriesand now he's in the lineup. He
knocked down a triple in the firsthalf, knockdown triple in the second half.

(21:47):
Like, those are all situations inplays that you have to give full
credit to Pachpo because I mean evenLowry hit that one in the fourth quarter,
like they're they're hitting a bunch ofthrees and at home, you've expect
role players to step up and knockdown their tripled if you've got even open

(22:08):
shots. But what I'm gonna expectfrom the Nuggets is crisp, strong,
clean clothes out, making sure anddisrupting, not providing open shots from the
beginning. Because once Strew's got itgoing in that first quarter, it was
pretty much like, oh, letme hand over the hot hand to the
next guy and the next guy andthe next guy, and everybody started feeling

(22:32):
a little bit because like, OhStrews is did it? Oh Duncan's day,
Oh Kevin's with it, and theystarted all just kind of feeding off
each other. But that's what's goingto be. They're gonna need to come
out right away and stick to theshooters and force basically force the heat to
shoot two point contested jumpers. Strewsfrom oh for nine from three in game

(22:52):
one to four out of ten,including his first few successful in game two,
no doubt, absolutely a difference maker. Sharrock Hay, what is we're
gonna step aside more on this gamewhen we come back, including shrugs,
best bets for Game three and who'sready to bet? I know I am.
You're listening to Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Need event a bad bad bets?
You've come to the right place.Tell us about it call six one

(23:15):
seven two six six six eight sixsix one seven two six six six eight
six eight, or if you're listeningon the iHeartRadio app, use the talkback
button. The Gambler with Adam Kaufmanwill be right back after this on WRK
O gold Knight's wiping the floor withthe Panthers six one now late in regulation.

(23:38):
Once again, we will talk muchmore about this game after it concludes.
Well of Jeff Ulrich from DraftKings,Matthew Berry's fantasy life Stochastic, He's
all over the place. He willjoin us coming up in the second hour
of this show. Right now,we are talking with Shrug here also from
DK manager of content over there,about the NBA Finals and what is to
come in Game three between the Nuggetsand Heat, a series that shifts to

(24:02):
South Beach. Even at one,it's now best to five. Sharagan,
you were talking about the move ofKevin Love being reinserted into the starting line
and from Miami absolutely was a differencemaker. But what about Tyler Hero There
were original reports this goes back,you know, a week or so now
that he was targeting Game three ashis return. It doesn't sound like the

(24:22):
hand is quite ready yet. Butwhat's the latest year hearing and should we
expect to see him in there.I think there's still a potential for him
to definitely come in there. Butmy concern is this guy is gonna mess
up the mojo a little bit.He hasn't played since breaking his hand all
the way back. I believe itwasn't the playing game or that first or

(24:42):
yeah, the playing game or againstthe Hawks, Like it's been a minute
since this guy has played high levelbasketball and to just come in and get
thrown into the NBA Finals, itis not just something else. But he's
been in this situation before in termsof playing in the finals, so he
was there available on the heat whenthey played against the Lakers. But I

(25:03):
am just concerned how you answered him. Do you play him twenty minutes twenty
five? How does the rotation changebecause of this guy who's a proven you
know, fall handler, score orsomeone that needs to get the ball in
his hands to be effective. He'snot a three and D guy where you're
gonna say, oh, get outthere and you know, muck up the
game a little bit. Sure,he mucked up the game and broke his

(25:25):
hand, that's how, that's howhe hurt himself. But I wouldn't consider
him a staunch defender. So Ijust believe that this is maybe gonna throw
a wrench into the chemistry a littlebit. How do you bring him in?
Do you bring him off the bench? What is his role. It's
there's so many question marks, andif there's anybody that can answer those questions,
it's definitely Coachpoe. But I'm stillon the side of the heat need

(25:49):
to figure something out because they canride that adrenaline of coming home. But
I'm not fully sure that having Tylerhero is gonna be positive. So I
was looking had some trends. Thetotal has hit the over in six of
Denver's last nine away games. Thetotals hit the over in six of Miami's
last seven games against Denver. Whatdo you expect in terms of the over

(26:11):
under. I wanted to say tomorrowon Wednesday, which is sitting at two
fourteen and a half. I'm alittle bit concerned about playing that total.
It can go either way. Wecan get a staunched defensive game that just
like both teams are just thrown upbrick, which would then favor Denver because

(26:33):
that would mean that Miami is nothitting their threes, or it just cruises
way over and both teams are shootinglights out here, it comes back in
provides a spark, Denver makes anadjustment, really gets them. But what
Denver needs to do is any tomake the adjustment more or less on the
defensive end. They don't have toreally worry too much about offense. Sure

(26:53):
Yokis is scoring, they throw thezone against him and they'll play better.
I expect Michael Porter Junior to playbetter. But my play is Denver team
total. I would rather go andtake their over rather than playing the full
game total. And what's that numberout? I'm just looking it up,
but you probably have that off thetop of your head. It was I

(27:15):
believe it was one ten, butone second and I can double check it
as well. Let's see team propsDenver away team Denver one to eight and
a half. Yeah, so Iexpect them to score one ten within this

(27:36):
game. And if they're gonna winthis game, as we mentioned, I
don't believe that's going to be particularlyclose. Sure it could come down to
four or five possession game, butI believe that Denver should cover and they
should win by covering their team totalone oh four in game one, one
o eight in game two. Whatabout some of your favorite prop bets here

(27:57):
in this game coming up? Themarket has really adjusted, it's really adjusted.
The value was on Butler assists Murrayassist also with Yokiic player points.
I knew that they were going toforce him to be a score. That's
the way that the Sons show thatyou can force him to beat him in

(28:21):
the in the Minnesota Series, healso score forty any loss or in the
Nuggets loss. And I just thinkthat there's a lot here to die Jet
and the lines are pretty pretty sharp. If there's anything that can really jump
off the page, it's maybe likepotential for bam Adebayo to do well gave
Vincent. But as I mentioned,we don't know what Heroes role is going

(28:45):
to be, and I would waituntil he's in or out and then you
can be able to, you know, attack the lines. And the lives
have really adjusted, like for example, we can't even bet Caleb Martin right
now on the draft New Sports Book. If you look at his player points,
he's not listed in here. Sothat was where the value was at

(29:07):
because his role was very erratic.His role is going to become even more
erratic with Hero potentially back in thelineup. So the only thing I really
feel like comfortable in is you know, maybe some Yokich point. I still
think that about his pra I thinkthat's standing at fifty one and a half

(29:29):
points, rebounds, assist combo.Obviously, he I think he cleared it
in game one by the hook.In Game two he blew it out of
the water because he scored a ton. What do you expect in game three.
I'm expecting a more all around effortin Game three. I think there's
potential for like twenty five, thirteenand eight something like that, which we'll

(29:52):
bring, which we'll bring the teamtogether and allow for other guys to step
up and contribute correctly. But seeactually take him on the under then if
you think that's roughly what his totalsare going to be, yeah, I
just think that there's gonna be otherguys that need to step up in this
contest, particularly Jamal Murray. IfJamal Murray can't step up, he has

(30:12):
to. When they put Jimmy Butleron him, it really impacted that kind
of set in his offense. Hewent off a little bit in that you
know, first half. When Denvermade their push in that second quarter,
Jamal Murray was a key factor withNicole Yokich on the bench, But he
needs to really really make an impact. Aaron Gordon needs to really wake up

(30:33):
and change it up. But Ithink the biggest X factor in this game
is going to be Michael Porter Jr. If he's invincible again, that's gonna
be a big problem for Denver becausethey need his three point shooting. They
need the guys to get away fromYokis. How do you bust his own?
You either bust it through the middle, which Jokis was doing a ton

(30:56):
of, or from beyond the arts. Michael Porter Junior is gonna need to
knock down his three pointers on thatcategory, and we've got to break in
a moment, so we have timefor the parlay on the other side,
but very quickly. Gabe Vincent obviouslyhe went. Let's see, it was
five for ten from three in gameone, he was four for six from

(31:17):
three in Game two. His totalright now over two and a half made
threes. You can get at plusmoney. Do you like it? I
do like it. But let's waitfor a hero. Is Hero going to
start? Is Hero gonna come offthe bench? What is the way he
starts? If he plays? Whatdo you mean there definitely is a chance
that he starts if he plays.He was starting previous to when he before

(31:42):
he got injured. He was thestarting guard right before he got injured.
I'm not saying he wouldn't start againat some point in the series, but
first game back after that kind oflayoff, I think not only is he
coming off the bench, he's gota minute's restriction, I think. But
that's how you get him. Youget him in right away, five six
minutes, get his wins. Liketheir adrenaline is pumping. He's going it's

(32:04):
the NBA Finals, they're back home, feed off the crowd. There's a
lot to it, like if hestarts, like if he comes in,
he comes in cold. He mightcome in ice cold in that one.
So and and it's gonna be difficultbecause are you gonna take Struce out?
Are you gonna take Love out?What's the move then? And I don't
think they're gonna take Struce out becausehe has he was the one that helped
them definitely in Game two and thenKevin Love was there kind of like chess

(32:25):
piece move. So it's gonna bedifficult. Then you're probably right. He
does come off the bench, butthere's an opportunity for him to. I
mean, he was the sixth Manof the Year a few years ago.
So if he does get it,but it's it's gonna be a lot based
on Tyler Hero. Yeah, it'sit's fair. I mean, my feeling
is he will not play Game three. I think they wait and see what

(32:49):
happens after coming off a good game. We'll see, But all right,
we're gonna step aside People's Parlay.Meet Dan Shrug when we come back.
Go nowhere, sick and tired ofold sports talk and want to get right
into the action. The Gambler withAdam Kaufman, as you covered, call
us now with six one seven twosix six six eight six eight. That's
six one seven two six six sixeight six eight. The Gambler with Adam

(33:15):
Kaufman will be right back after thisis on WRKO. We are back.
It is time to build out thePeople's Parlay, and damn it, we
need to win. Sharagu Here ishere, Dan Watkins, I'm Adam Kaufman.
Sharag We were talking earlier in theshow, and ultimately Dan and I

(33:35):
decided it is up to you whetheror not the parlay is decided tomorrow,
which it might be any way dependingon minor Dan's plays, or if it
for your leg bleeds into another day, so you can either give us baseball
for Tuesday, or you can giveus a play you really like on Wednesday.
I mean, you're here talking NBA. It is totally your discretion,
my friend. Well, I sathere and our research really really, really

(34:00):
really hard for tomorrow, and Ihave an amazing play, backed by stats,
backed by info, backed by everythingthat we need to hit the people's
parlay. Oh man, well,who am I to turn that down?
So let's go. What do yougot? All right? We got the
Pirates on the run line again,Oakland Athletics. Okay, all right.

(34:24):
I mean it sadly that did nothit tonight, but hey, tomorrow's a
new day. Yeah, and there'sa lot to there's a lot to do
with this. So I've been hittingand playing this play a bunch lately and
it's been really really, you know, kind of profitable. What's the worst

(34:44):
team in the MLB right now?And what do you need to be profitable?
As a better is to win sixtypercent of the time, and the
A's are loving more than sixty percentof the time. So with just some
some little stats here about the startingpitcher or the Athletics James Papillion, with
him pitching, the team's face inthe A's have covered the run line in

(35:07):
his last four starts, and ifwe look back earlier in the season,
the opposing team has scored over tenrun in five of his other starts.
This dude has not won a gamethis season. He has not does not
any dubs in his win column.And the only time that the Athletics have
won when he's pitched, it's whenthey scored in the ninth inning and won

(35:29):
the game and extra. So wecan be safe and take the money line.
But the money line is over minustwo hundred and this is the first
time in five hundred and thirty fourgames that the Pirates are minus two hundred
favorite or bigger. So I thinkthat the value is on the run line.

(35:51):
I never question run line. Pickles, let's get frisky with it.
I love it. I don't meanto cut you off, but we're tight
on time, Dan, what doyou have? All right? So I'm
staying in the same game, andwe're gonna take the over in this one
as well. Capriollen, everybody hitshim, and then Mitch Keller. While
he is nasty and he does rackup the strikeouts, he has been getting
hit around a bit the last fewstarts as well. He's given up twelve

(36:12):
runs in his last eighteen innings.So let's hope Oakland can maybe get us
like three or four on their endtomorrow night, and then Pittsburgh just explodes
on their end. So let's takethe over at eight and a half,
all right, And I am goingto We're gonna wait this out into the
evening a little bit. I'm notgoing to get greedy. It's already a
fine enough number on the money line, and that is the Rangers, who
just eked out a win in theninth inning over the car Cardinals. I'm

(36:36):
going Texas on the money line.Dan Dunning is on the mound. He
has been very, very good thisseason in uh, you know what,
kind of started is more of anopener role, and now he is a
full fledged He's going five plus innings. He's his era is right around two
on the year. It's he's beenconsistent. He's he's two in change for

(36:57):
the month of May. Obviously,this will be his first June Star.
So I am excited for him forTexas and for this play, which is
Pirates on the run line over eightand a half runs in that game,
and Texas on the money line againstSaint Louis puts me at plus almost five
hundred. With this three leg parlay, I'm over five hundred. So yeah,

(37:17):
let's do it even better for you. Let's do it. What's crazy
is because I was looking at theRangers on the money list, my other
alternate if you had said, oh, maybe I'm not feeling this one.
So let's ride. I love it. Let's do a great minds, all
three of us, let us rollwith this. Sharrock, thank you so
much, my friend. We willdefinitely have you on again real soon,
and let's hope that sixty percent ofwhat we said about game three will come

(37:42):
true. Ready. Thank you forhaving me, Sharrock. You're a manager
of content over at DraftKings. Wehave much more coming up on this show,
a whole lot of Stanley Cup Finaltalks. Seven to two. Vegas
is blasting Florida right now. Butwhile we were chatting, got that goal
from Matt could Chuck. Whoooo.Don't care about missing on the under because

(38:04):
the Kachuck goal good enough. Sothank you, Matt Chuck. I am,
at least for tonight, forever indebtedto you and a big fan.
We're gonna step aside. Our numbertwo. We're halfway home. Jeff Ulrik
is going to join us in alittle bit. We'll get into a little
bit more baseball, more hockey,maybe some basketball lingering thoughts, all of
it on the way here on wr KO. Another hour of the Gambler

(38:27):
with Adam Kaufman is coming up onsix eighty w r KO, streaming live
on the iHeartRadio app and on yoursmart speaker. Just ask it to play
w r KO on iHeartRadio. Gamblingproblem Hope is here. Call one eight
hundred and three to two, sevenfifty fifty or visit gambling helpline MA dot
org. We're back our number twoof the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. That's

(38:54):
me and uh all right, okay, we can digest, we can move
on a little bit because the hockeygame's over. It means in a little
while when Jeff Ulrick joins us,we can do a full blown reaction.
Look ahead obviously to Game three,props to bet where we should be focused
perspective of this series. After Vegasheld serve at home took both games in

(39:16):
rather convincing fashion against the Panthers sevento two tonight, my god. But
yeah, totally. But before we, you know, really transition to that
in the next ten minutes or so, Dan Watkins, let's debrief a little
bit sh Rock Heroes with us.For the last little while we did the
People's parlay. I hesitate to sayI feel good about this one, but
I actually I like it. Ilike it a lot real quick, by

(39:39):
the way, just in the spiritof you know, hey, it's a
gambling show. What are we watchingfor anything that you still have on the
line tonight? Or has it allbeen decided now? No? I am
a very nice over four tonight.Okay, it's been a rough night.
I thought Florida would bounce back.Nope. I thought Brandon Montor would be
a big part of that back.Nope. And then I had two baseball

(40:01):
plays as well. They both didnot come through. The only thing that
I am cautiously holding out hope forI don't think it's going to happen is
the over eight and a half runsin the Cubs Padres game. It's four
oh in the bottom of the seventhright now. So not overly optimistic by
any stretch, not even really semioptimistic, but that would be a nice

(40:22):
way to cap what has overall beena successful day, not a not a
you know, not a life changingday. But you know, as long
as it's in the green, that'sultimately what I care about. So going
back to what we were talking aboutwith Sharag, what is you know?
Obviously I got all his thoughts andI offered some of my own. We
didn't hear from you, So whatare what's your perspective on Game three coming

(40:45):
up here? So I completely agreewith you guys that if you're gonna take
Miami in this game, just gomoney line, don't even waste your time
taking the two and a half,because if Miami wins this game, or
if Miami hangs around, they're gonnawin. They're the best crunch time team
in basketball. The culture thing isreal. They've proven that at this point.
It is a real thing that theyare just better in crunch time if
it's close. But with that beingsaid, I expect to see a big

(41:07):
time bounce back from the Denver Nuggetson Wednesday, So I'm gonna lay the
two and a half for that one, which I really like that line a
lot, So I like Denver alot. And then as far as the
player props, go, I'm allin on Gabe Benson right now, even
if Tyler Hero plays at him,as you were saying, I don't think
we're gonna see much of him,and then getting these reports from Miami this
morning how sore he was after thisshoot around that hand, and then also

(41:30):
I guess like he's like kind oftimid or he doesn't doesn't really know if
he wants to like insert himself intothe rotation, if he might like mess
with the flow there. So inthe way, by the way, because
a lot of guys would just beclamoring to jump into a finals game,
right especially, I mean maybe that'dbe a little different if they were down
O two that he's like, Okay, I gotta get in there and you
know, help my team out.But one one things are fine right now

(41:52):
for Miami. Gabe Vincent thirteen anda half is where this line is still
at. And I want to scoopit up before we get a ruling on
Hero, because i'd expect once weknow for sure here it was out,
this will probably jump up to aroundfifteen or so. It could happen.
Yeah, that but all the morereason to if you believe that he's going
to keep doing what he's doing interms of the three point success, all
the more reason to jump on overtwo and a half threees it plus money,

(42:13):
Yeah, absolutely, I mean,and then the thirteen and a half
he cleared easily in both games sofar this series he hit all three home
games against the Celtics, he cruisedpast that line. So I don't see
why to go against it right now. We should put some thought and we
don't even have to do it tonightbecause the game is until Wednesday, but
we should put some thought into what, you know, maybe maybe we build

(42:35):
a show just same game parlay forthis one. Yeah, who knows.
Maybe we'll end up doing that tomorrowas part of our people's parlay. But
usually baseball gets involved, so maybewe should do just a separate uh,
you know, well, and we'llinclude EJ as well. We'll each make
a pick for the basketball game anduh and it just something else for us
to track obviously, rule what's thatNobody touches anything regarding Michael Porter Jr.

(43:01):
One way or another. It isleft out. It's so funny you say
that, because I was looking atfan duel and they have there was a
profit boost of thirty percent. Ithink on on a single bet, but
it was it wasn't just any betas as I came to learn when I
started digging deeper, it was veryspecific to them, to the player doubles

(43:25):
as they called them. Uh letme see, let me yeah, player
performance doubles. As I'm scrolling thesite, and what those are if you're
unfamiliar with the Vanduel Sports book,is you know, a player to do
X with Denver to win or Miamito win. So one that I really
like, you know, So,I had almost one hundred bucks on Joker

(43:49):
to have a triple double in ingame two, which as we know,
he never even flirted with. Hedidn't he had four assists what we were
expecting for game one. He didin Game two pretty much. Yeah,
and that it pissed me off.And so I was looking at all,
right, well, I still haveall the love and respect in the world
for Joker. I'm just not goingto put my eggs into the triple double

(44:09):
basket right now. So there's onewhich is, you know, pretty close
to even money because obviously you needtwo things to happen, which is a
Joker double double and Denver to win, which I believe is going to happen.
I don't believe Miami is going towin. If you do, then
there are plenty of you know,you could look at like, maybe this
is up your rally, Gabe Vincent, fifteen plus points and Miami to win

(44:32):
plus two sixty five. It's anice number if you think that's going to
happen. But you brought up Porterand this one. I don't know that
I'll play it, but this jumpedout at me as well. Porter at
fifteen plus points, which he hasnot done so far in these two games,
but the shot volume has. Itwas a little less in game two,
but generally I think the shot volumehas been there enough because mostly he

(44:53):
takes three pointers. Fifteen plus pointsand Denver to win plus two hundred.
It's intriguing, it is, butI understand why. You know. I
texted a buddy about it, andhe's like, I would rather take a
KCP rebound prop than put any moneyon Porter to do anything offensively. Oh
yeah, So so you know there'sthere are doubters everywhere. Yeah, I

(45:16):
mean, especially with his three pointshooting. I think he's gotten each one
of us on this show. Eitherare the first two games on his three
point prop. I had an unbelievableparlay for Sunday and it was over plus
one thousand. It was a fiveleg I hit four out of five,
cruised to four out of five ofthe legs, and then Michael Porter Junior's
three point prop screwed me over atthe end. Yeah, that was pretty

(45:38):
much me in game one, Imissed multiple I know, you shouldn't even
do parlays. I got. Imissed multiple parlays because Porter. You know,
I had like three plus threes fromPorter in all of them, or
even I think in one of them, I even had two, and I
don't think he got that. Ithink he had one. So he Yeah,
he just screwed all over the play. It was. It was very

(46:00):
uh or no, he did havetoo, I take that back. He
had two in game one, butyeah, so I must have had three
everywhere and I got all. Igot even more pissed when I so he
was two out of eleven and Isaw a stat on Twitter somewhere that said
Porter was one for seven on wideopen threes. How does that happen?
How does that happen? Oh?God? Yeah it was. It was

(46:22):
tough, but yeah, tomorrow wewill definitely take a deeper look into some
of these props than we did withShrug tonight, because I'm there. There
are a lot of intriguing ones.You know. Obviously you mentioned the Vincent
ones, and and maybe it makessense to jump on those sooner than later,
because it says we get closer,we are going to get news on
Hero. You do run the riskof it backfiring on you, meaning he

(46:43):
is active and plays and all ofa sudden, it's like, I don't
know when what's Vincent gonna do.I do feel like, you know,
Game one being obviously an aberration,I feel like Strus is fairly reliable in
terms of you know, you youyou kind of know what his floor is
going to be. That's why,like the over nine and a half points
for him just makes sense, youknow, because he should hit two or

(47:07):
three three's, which is always youknow, you consider going over his three
prop over two and a half isplus one forty, you know, always
something worth thinking about. Anyway,Can I give us something else to think
about here? Sure? Is ittime to start hitting the under on Jimmy
Butler? I absolutely think it is, because it's I mean, he's down
to twenty five and a half now, but still he's hitting this. He's

(47:28):
hit that just twice in his lastseven games. I mean, he's clearly
messed up. You know, hisshooting, his percentage has just been way
down since that ankle injury in thesecond round. But just a total of
thirty four points through the first twogames in this series. Yeah. In
fact, what may even make senseif you just wanted to do a little,
you know, a little two leggerButler under points, over assists.

(47:50):
It's six and a half. He'sperfectly happy to facilitate obviously sixteen through two
games. Yeah, a lot ofsense in that. In fact, if
you were to do that just forgiggles, let me see, I would
get it's about two plus two fifty. Yeah, and he hit that.
He hit that exactly in both ofthe first two games, each of the

(48:12):
first two games. I might putsome money on it during the break there
you go, might jump right intoit. I was looking at some some
previous stats and reading some articles,and I won't shout out where this one
is from because I'm gonna make funof it. But there was a line
in there that said, and itwas predicting the Heat would win by two
points and again two and a halfis the spread as we talked about it,

(48:37):
says Fade, and Nuggets team thatis one in five against the spread
in its last six games in June. How many years do you have to
go back for that? Yeah?Six June games. This is the first
time they've ever played the finals,so that must what take you back to
the bubble? Well, the bubblewas in the fall, right, so

(48:59):
that wouldn't even work. No,when if they even played six games in
June. Maybe they had a couplein like the conference finals when they lost
to the Lakers with Carmelo. Imean, maybe it's just such a ridiculous
stat. I mean, I'll lookthis up during the break. Yeah,
i'd I'd be interested to know.So please do the last six games in
June? How many of they?I mean, what if they played this

(49:22):
year? The two? Just two? Was? I want to I gotta
look at it. I gotta pullup their schedule just to even see the
specific Obviously they didn't play the Lakersin June. I know that, but
let me see real quick, becauseI know we gotta hit the break here.
Gut e j yelling at me.June one, June fourth these first

(49:45):
two games. Ye, so yeah, when when were the other four?
All right, Jeff Ulrich is goingto join us when we come back,
we'll we'll dive deeper into the StanleyCup Final now and it is two oh.
Bruce Cassidy's Vegas gold Nights, whichshould be their legal name at this
point, at least around these parts. Bruce Cassidy's Vegas Golden Knights lead the

(50:06):
Florida Panthers to nothing in the StanleyCup Final. With the series shifting back
to Miami, stay with us here, we'll get into it preview game three.
Look props, all sorts of goodstuff here on The Gambler with Adam
Kaufman. Need event of bad badbets. You've come to the right place.
Tell us about it. Call sixone seven two six six six eight

(50:28):
six six one seven two six sixsix eight six eight, or if you're
listening on the iHeartRadio app, usethe tuck back button. The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman will be right back afterthis on WRKO, we're back in.
Dan Watkins, you had an answerto our trivia question I do It was
twenty twenty one. The Nuggets wereswept by the Suns in the Western Conference

(50:52):
semifinals, and all those games happenedin the month of June. Remember,
back in twenty twenty one, theseason had the delayed star because of the
bubble, right, so I pushedeverything back. So yeah, and they
go not as egregious as I thought, but still stupid, still stupid stat
right, Yeah, I mean,I mean, I was going on with

(51:13):
I was, I was looking atsome nineteen seventies box scores and during the
break here and I could west unsell. Yes, the Larry Brown lead Nuggets
of the nineteen seventies. Oh incredible. All right, Well, maybe more
basketball a little bit later on,but for the next couple segments anyhow,
we will get into hockey teams thathave taken a two oh series lead in
the Stanley Cup Final thirty one andthree in the Expansion era, the Panthers

(51:37):
will try to avoid falling into athree oh hole. Thursday, back in
Sunrise, Florida, let's talk aboutall of it. Jeff Ulrick joins us
from DraftKings, from Stochastic, fromMatthew Berry's Fantasy Life. He's with us
on the Gambler with Adam Kaufman.Moose, how are you buddy, do
a good nad thanks for having meback always third time on the show.

(51:59):
We're gonna we're we're gonna keep thatkeep Yeah, No, I'm counting,
we're gonna keep it. You arethe second three time member of this program.
You're tip. It's like it's likethe Jerry Show. It's like Seinfeld,
where you know they had they hadthey ranked them on their speed dial.
Is that what this is? Like? Well, we I guess we're
ranking you in order of appearances thenyeah, but content that's a whole other

(52:22):
category entirely. Yeah, you know, we keep that internal, we keep
that to ourselves. But no,we we love you, We we do.
And usually well it's you've done both. You talk golf with us,
obviously you talk hockey as well,and uh and we'll certainly bug you come
football season. But right now ourfocus is on the Stanley Cup Final.
And because I know you, Iknow that you, uh, this this

(52:44):
series is not playing out as youwere expecting. You came in thinking Florida
and six and right now the Pantherswould have to reel off four in a
row to pull that off. Howsurprised are you by what the Golden Knights
have done through these first two gamesat home, not only winning but winning
convincingly. Yeah, you know,the score doesn't tell the whole story,

(53:05):
I'll say that. But I mean, obviously, just if you were to
tell me that it was going tobe you know, like twelve four in
favor of Vegas in the first twotwo games, I would definitely have not
believed you. But um, youknow, Florida was really close in game
one that that game was tied toto Um, they made a couple just
took too many penalties, They justgave Vegas too many opportunities. And then

(53:29):
you know, Game two was interesting. I mean, Vegas had like a
couple of posts really close chances Vegas, UM or Florida had a couple of
really close chances, and then Vegaswould just come back and just like like
score right away and the game justkind of got out of hand. Um.
Certainly, I'm surprised that Florida isdown to nothing, but I also
don't think that they're necessarily one hundredpercent out of it. Um. Probably

(53:52):
the only person on Earth who sinksout right now. But well, look,
they came back against Boston, ifthey came back from three one against
Boston. I was gonna say theylost the first game, like he got
down against Boston. I mean,I didn't come down against come back against
Boston. I think they can doit against anyone. At the same time,
I am weary here, like I'mnot going to call for the comeback.

(54:13):
Vegas has done this all playoffs wherethey've gone up against this elite teams
with really good skill up front,and they've just been patient and patient and
just gotten their opportunities and scored.Um. I do think they're getting some
help from the reps. For whateverreason, they didn't get any the ress
just would not call penalties against theOilers. Um. It's kind of that

(54:35):
feels like the same way this series. But you know, we're going back
to Florida, and I do thinkthat the Florida Panthers have a lot of
veterans. Veterans in that locker room. They were the rusty team too.
That's that's what really that was reallythe biggest worry for me with Florida.
The huge rest. I have seenso many teams in this covid era come
off like ten day rest and justbe terrible for a week. And I

(54:58):
kind of feel like the Panther area little bit in that boat. Still,
I'm still in on Florida for Gamethree. I am. I think
you kind of have to be.I just don't think that Florida is a
team necessarily to just roll over anddie here. So yeah, I'm surprised,
But a lot of credit to theVegas Gold Nights. They've been very
good against the East. This isgoing to be a massive hill for the

(55:21):
Panthers to climb. I'm certainly notinvesting anymore, you know, in terms
of like Florida wing the series.I might think about looking at like,
you know, six games or somethinglike that, but I don't think I
would necessarily take the big plunge andgo and go to the other side and
take take Florida to amount a hugecomeback. So what would concern me Jeff
is just sort of thinking back tothat comeback against Boston, is you know

(55:45):
where they got into a hole.And I don't put it all on one
player, but we know how importantthe goaltending position is. Obviously in this
sport. It was Alex Lyon whowas in net for those first few games,
and he's not a guy that typicallyyou're gonna think is gonna do the
world for you. I know,like crazy things happen, like look at

(56:06):
what Aiden Hill is doing. SoI get it. But it was Bobrovski
who came in and you know,not so great obviously in game four,
but over those next three did enough. Didn't like lock the Bruins down.
They were all tight games and allhigh scoring games, but did enough to
prevail and went on a run thereagainst Florida or Toronto against Carolina and entered

(56:27):
the Stanley Cup Final as the bettingfavorite for the con smythe Trophy and just
lit up in the first two games. And I'm not so sure just looking
at the profile of the two guysthat I can have all that much confidence.
I know what he's got around himand how good Kachuck is and some
of these guys up front, butI'm not sure how much confidence I can
have him Florida coming back to winthis series. If Bobrovski is the one

(56:50):
who just got destroyed through two gamesand now you're putting all your eggs in
the lion basket, yeah absolutely,I mean, look, I mean a
David and announced a starter for gamethree? Have they I don't think they
not yet No. Yeah, Imean, I would be pretty surprised if
Sergay Pabrowski isn't back in that.I mean, I'm I'm pretty confident that's
going to be the call. Andlook, Pabrovsky's a complete wild card.

(57:14):
I mean, you know, Iwas kind of waiting for him to maybe
implode against Carolina. He didn't Atthis time though, I kind of got
to give him the benefit of thedoubt. He's been good for a lot
of the playoffs. He's a veryvery high goal he's only thirty four.
I think you're gonna see Sergay Bobrovskibounced back in games three and four.
If that's gonna be enough for themto grab two wins, that's what Again,

(57:37):
I'm not I'm not calling for necessarilyFloor to come back, but I
do think you'll see Pabrovski played better. And that's why I do think,
like, you know, looking forthis series to go potentially six games or
something I might be interested in.But um, certainly the concern is valid.
I mean it's you know, hedid not have a good regular season.
He's been up and down the lasttwo seasons. Really, he was

(57:58):
basically an over just magnet this year, Bobroskus and now you bet the over.
So but you know he was,he was really really good for two
series. I give him the benefitof the doubt for Game three at least.
I'll probably be all in on Floridafor Game three. But you know,
we only have so many, somany more opportunities left here, so
it's kind of an all or nothingthing. If it works great, If

(58:20):
not, then I mean we're doneanyways with the NHL. I think,
well, let's look ahead to gamethree some props that will be available to
us as well, where the moneyis going. I'll be a very very
early on this game obviously just endedin the last ten, fifteen, twenty
minutes, whatever it was. Wewill do that with Jeff Ulrich, hang
with us, Moose when we comeback. It's The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
w RKO sick and tired of oldsports talk and want to get right into

(58:45):
the action. The Gambler with AdamKaufman. As you covered, call us
now with six one seven two sixsix six eight six eight. That's six
one seven two six six six eightsix eight. The Gambler with Adamman.
We'll be right back after this ison WRKO, So convenient timing for us.

(59:07):
During our commercial break, I hadan opportunity to check out some of
Paul Maurice's postgame press conference after thatPanther's loss, and he was asked Jeff
Ulrich, he joins us here?Rejoins us from DraftKings, Stochastic as well
as Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life. Hewas asked, Moose, are you sticking
with Bobovsky a net? And hesaid that he was going to sweat that

(59:28):
one out for the next couple ofdays. He said, is very good,
but he wasn't sure exactly what hewas going to do just yet,
so he didn't stand by his guydefinitively. Yeah, he didn't. I
mean it's I think it's a fairpoint. I mean, you're down to
nothing, you've got to give yourself. Yeah, I mean it's legitimately like
you should think about it a bit. But you know, I mean,

(59:50):
Alex Line's a nice story. Youknow, it's not like they but you
mentioned it before, It's not likethis is a guy with a ton of
experience or really a ton of upside. I think that ultimately the Panthers will
probably go back to Lebrosky, butI'm not really shocked at the answer.
I would have been surprised if youhad just said definitively Lebrosky, but not
really surprised either that he's giving himselfthe option because this is basically all or

(01:00:14):
nothing. You've got to consider everythingat this point. So let's get into
some of how we should bet bothyou will bet, how the public should
bet. Game three coming up herein a couple of days, so obviously
it's very early on. You know, there's there's a lot that's going to
change. The game's only finalized alittle while ago. But I'm looking at
Visa and some of the drafting sportsbook numbers. The money is primarily on

(01:00:36):
the Golden Nights both with the goalline. The money line at plus one
hundred is about it. It's likean eighty five fifteen split in favor of
Vegas going and winning in Florida inGame three. The although you know arrow
up for anyone's ever been to Visasight the money is it's moving. It's
shifting in the direction of Florida everso slightly. Both money line and the

(01:00:59):
puck line at minus one and ahalf and the over six which of course
we know that is hitting each ofthe first two games. The over six
has more than seventy five percent ofthe bet. What do you think?
So again, I mean, I'llstick to my call. I mean,
I think this is a spot toget on the Panthers. But I mean,
you know, you're talking to aman who's been you know, pretty

(01:01:19):
much wrong about how the series hasgone. So take that into consideration.
I mean, full hey, fulldisclosure. Um. But I do think
that you know, as you see, I'm not shocked to see that the
public is that just people are gettingon the Golden Knights. They're the underdogs
there plus one hundred. They justblew out the Panthers seven two. I
mean, and like the again,you know they people just look at the

(01:01:40):
score. Well, gold Knights areare dominating this series. Again, I
would say it's been a little bitcloser than that. Um, and the
Panthers is going to be their thirdgame back from from again like a really
long rest. I just think thatthere's a good chance you're going to see
a different team. Um. Ithink that this line will potentially move to
where it's it's almost the inflip thoughon the money line, like if I'm
betting the Panthers, I'm not doingit today. I'm waiting. Um,

(01:02:04):
it's minus one twenty on draftings rightnow. I think at the very least
it'll move to minus one fifteen orminus one ten if I had to guests.
Um, And I like that,I really do. I mean,
I think I'm just the question ishow aggressive do you want to get with
the Panthers, Because, yeah,if you're if we're going with this narrative,
do we want to take the punkline? I mean, I think
that that's legitimately something that you canthink about. Nobody is doing that right

(01:02:30):
now, I can tell you that. And again, if you're thinking about
the punk line with the Panthers,it's plus two ten right now. You
may get this up to like plustwo twenty plus two twenty five by funk
drop because I think that the GoldenNights will still dominate the money for the
form, you know, for bettingup until Thursday, so you know,
a lot of time to marinate onthis. And I think when people just

(01:02:50):
look at this line, you're stillgonna get you know, most people just
saying Vegas is the underdog just gonnatake them here. Um, but it's
it's again, it's it's a coupleday break. What can happen? Um,
Florida's played a couple of games nowand they're going home. Um.
I would wait on this and thenyou know, take Florida to you know,
push this to at least a competitiveseries line. So it's funny,

(01:03:12):
Jeff, I'm I'm well, we'llsee how it plays out. It's still
a long way to go. Butin the here and now, in the
here and now, I'm mad atmyself because I say a lot of things
on this show. I'm not alwaysright. Obviously, i'd be a rich
man. I wouldn't have to dothe show if I was always right.
But there was a and Dan Danknows this. He's he's he's been here
for every show. I had saidgoing into the Stanley Cup final, if

(01:03:36):
you believe Vegas is going to win, as I did, I was not
on the Florida train with all ofyou people. If you believe Vegas was
going to win this championship. JonathanMarch is so strong value at con smythe
and I didn't do it. Ididn't do it for this reason. I
hate futures bets, not because Ithink they're a bad idea. I'm just
impatient. I like to I liketo set on my bets that night or

(01:04:00):
the next day. I don't liketo deal with like find out in two
weeks. That's I just I haveno patience for it. But for people
that like to get into futures bets, you know, Marchisso was a very
strong value play for con Smite Trophy, and he is right now after the
two goal, one assist game tonight, and obviously his team in front,
he's the favorite right now, AidanHill is behind him. Then you have

(01:04:20):
Jack Eichel. What do you thinkof how these odds have shifted around before
we circle back to game three.I mean, probably the only thing I
did get right about this series isidentifying Marchizo because there's plus seven hundred before
the series began, and he hadbeen to me the most opportunistic and like

(01:04:42):
the just the most consistently best Vegasforward. I mean, Jack Eichel's been
good, but march Stone is alwaysgood, but he doesn't score quite as
much. Marchisou is the guy whogets those timely goals. And when you
get timely goals in the playoffs,to get a lot of recognition, So
he made a lot of sense aswell looking at them market now though,
Oh boy, I mean I dothink it's his to lose after tonight,

(01:05:05):
you know. And I think thatif you're playing Marchio minus one thirty,
you're basically playing for Vegas to andthis in five. The longer this series
goes, the more likely somebody elsesteps up, you know, march Stone
gets a hat trick or something,Aden Hill pictures a shutout or like something
like that. So to me,I don't mind playing marcheso here because you

(01:05:31):
know, like when we look atthe series line, I mean it's minus
five hundred for Vegas to close thisout. I think if they close this
out in five, there's a Imean there's a very slim chance that someone
else is going to do something greatenough to kind of overtake him. So
yeah, for me, Um,you know, I think that march is
in a good spot. I thinkthat Aten Hill is probably his biggest adversary

(01:05:55):
right now. Um. You know, if Aten Hill goes into Florida and
pictures like a four forty savee shutouttomorrow, that's going to make things really
interesting. But march isn't a prettygood spot and boy, yeah, it's
like you. I mean, ifI wasn't, if I was so big
on Florida to begin the series,I probably would have thought about March still
a lot harder, but it wascertainly a good value before the series began.

(01:06:16):
How about some props for Game three. I know they've just been released,
but largely they're you know, otherthan maybe the the minus whatever plus
whatever being different, the numbers,the lines themselves generally are are pretty similar
game to game. Anything that jumpsout at you after what we've seen the
first two games, Yeah, soI mean, I here's one that Again,

(01:06:40):
this all just flows into the Floridanarratives. I mean, if you're
playing Florida and you're thinking about them, or maybe you're making the same game
Parlay Cold Night. Under two pointfive goals is plus one twenty Again,
this is relying on Bobrovski bouncing back. This is relying on Florida playing a
tighter game. But you know,if they dominate at home, then you
know, under two point five goalsa plus one twenty um certainly is gonna

(01:07:03):
have a good chance to hit that. That would be something that you could
play on its own instead of thegame line or you could you could mix
it in with like a Panther's moneyline. That So, um, I
really do think that Burbosski will getthe start. I think you'll you'll probably
see him bounce back to form.Um. I know that he's been up
and down all the season, butum, I just from what we've seen

(01:07:26):
in the playoffs, I think thatthat is that I'll have some interest in
as well. Under two point fivegoals there for the Golden Nights. And
then you know, in terms ofgame props and and players to target,
I mean again, you've you know, we've seen the best from the you
know, the Vegas forwards like Marcusso obviously Jack Eichols had a pretty strong
series, but you know, there'sbeen some really strong play throughout the playoffs

(01:07:50):
from guys like tart of reheghy Umthat is someone I would be interested in
potentially for a goal prop as well. In Game three. Rehage has been
really solid for them all playoffs.You know, I think at home to
targeting some Panthers goal bats not abad idea regardless of what side you're on.
So Forgege is a player when thegoal props come out for Game three.

(01:08:13):
That's gonna be one of the firstones. I let four as well.
I'll throw one out at you aswell. If if you believe the
Florida is going to win or evenjust be competitive in game three, and
I do believe that at the veryleast would be the case. Could chuck
multiple points you can get right aroundplus one fifty. Yeah, absolutely,
you know again, you you makea good point because you don't You don't

(01:08:33):
even really have to play the Floridagame line here. But I think that
one thing you can do is targetFlorida game props like like player props here,
like Rehegy to Chuck certainly multiple pointsto plus one fifty, and those
are both players I liked. Imean, those can hit without you know,
we could get a four or fourovertime game and get a three three
overtime game and those could hit regardlessof who wins. So I think the

(01:08:56):
Florida player props, at the veryleast will will be interesting. You should
getting better numbers on a lot oftheir players for sure. Most Before we
let you go, I know youcome prepared for anything, and that mine
Watkins has a question for you.Yeah, Jeff, we can't let you
leave without talking a little golf.RBC Canadian opened this weekend. A lot
of the big names are resting upfor the US Open next week, but
Rory is going for the three peathere and he is the heavy favorite.

(01:09:18):
Any plays you have in mind earlythis far out, Yeah, no,
absolutely. Hey. Look and theone thing I did get right last week
was Victor Halwin, So I mean, you know, the golf is definitely
on my mind. There's two playersat the top of the board. I
like. Cameron Young is plus fourteenhundred. I really hate that number,
but I really do like him onthis course. He's coming off two miss

(01:09:40):
cuts. It's a great wedge playerthough he may just be able to absolutely
dominate the short course. And thenTommy Fleetwood a plus two thousand. I
gotta give him one more chance here. He played really well. The PGA's
had a good season, did notplay all Colonial, but he has played
in Canada lots. He's just welloverdun when you're looking at the board this
week, so let's do a thousands. Pretty good for a lot of these
top players. It's a weaker fieldFleetwood, Um, I think it is

(01:10:04):
a spot. Bram I really dolove it, absolutely love it. Beautiful
Moose, we love you. Maybe, just maybe, in a matter of
weeks, you will become this show'sfirst four time guest. All right,
well, Florida wins. I gottahold you that help, Yeah you should.
It doesn't come with a robe likeyou know all those five timers hosting

(01:10:24):
SNL. But you know, maybemaybe we can mail you something. It'll
take take a year and a halfto get to you in Western Canada,
but we can try and get yousomething. I'm still waiting for my draftings,
like Christmas present from draftings from liketwo thousand and twenty one. So
look, if you need, ifyou need a Maddened dream Stream T shirt,
I'll just send you one, buddy. Yeah no, I don't need
that, all right. Jeff Ulrichfrom not only draft Kings Stochastic as well

(01:10:48):
as Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life. Thanksfor coming on, Moose. Alright man,
good one to you guys. Thanksall right, beautiful, Hopefully you
know I really I don't care specificallywho wins Game three. I do want
Vegas to win the series. I'mjust what can I say? I'm I'm
partial to Busche, so I don'tI do want a competitive series, at

(01:11:10):
least I don't. I don't wantVegas to just I'm sure he would prefer
the runaway with this thing, buthe as a fan, I'd like a
little competition here, which so fartwo games in we have not seen.
So we're gonna step aside. Whenwe come back, it'll be time to
put this show to bed, whichmeans taking a look at tomorrow's best plays.
Go nowhere, need a Vanda,bad bad bets. You've come to
the right place. Tell us aboutit. Call six one seven two six

(01:11:35):
six six eight six as six oneseven two six six six eight six eight,
or if you're listening on the iHeartRadioapp, use the talkback button.
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman will beright back after this on w r k
oh. Now it's time to putthis show to bed. With my pillow

(01:12:00):
a man. We gotta wait untilWednesday for basketball, until Thursday, Dan
for more hockey, Yep, tomorrow, Tuesday. Is it's just it's full
baseball. It's getting to that timeof year. It's getting to that time
of year. There's a little tease. It's sneaking up on us. I
know, I was actually EJ andI were talking about this before the show
that tomorrow is like the low nighton the sports calendar, just baseball.

(01:12:25):
I have to look in. Imean, is is that it? I
got? I gotta look at mymy CBS Sports app and the sketch.
So we got a zillion baseball games. You got w NBA. We never
do any w NBA betting talk,No, but I see a lot like
in this, in this space thatpeople are really cleaning up in that nev
area. So it might have tostart digging into that a little bit.
Yeah. I haven't even at atall really considered diving into it. So

(01:12:49):
maybe maybe that's the move. Maybemaybe needs it makes people money, it's
gonna have to be the move,all right, So as we I'm just
I'm up some betting splits for theWNBA for tomorrow just because I'm curious.
So I will tell you that popularpicks tomorrow right now include Vegas on the

(01:13:15):
money line, but you're not gettinga bargain there minus two fifty Chicago on
the money line. Same story.It's you know, very similar heavy favorites
in that sense, although the underone fifty nine and a half, which
is much closer to even money avery popular pick there, and then the
Sparks to cover two and a halfpoints is a popular pick in Seattle as

(01:13:40):
well. About seventy five percent ofthe handle and money going there. Just
so you know what your w NBAwhistle, all right, good, good
to keep that in mind. Keepthat in mind. I'm looking at the
baseball slate for tomorrow, and thefirst number that jumps out at me,
Adam is the total in this RedSox Guardians game. It's eight feels really

(01:14:00):
low for a Red Sox game,But then I go to the splits here
seventy four percent of the money ison the under in this one. James
Paxton going against Shane Bieber, andI just feel like both these guys can
be total hit or miss pitchers.We just saw Bieber give up eight runs,
seven runs whatever it was to Baltimorelast week. We know Paxton can
get lit up. He did bythe Angels two starts ago. He pitched
much better against the Reds. Butthe way this Red Sox bullpen is and

(01:14:23):
Paxton only goes five innings, Ilike the over in this one a lot.
And then the other one I'm lookingat right now is the Blue Jays
and a lot of people are onthis. Eighty five percent of the money
is on the run line. Tomorrow, Toronto is taking on Houston. They
are minus one thirty on the moneyline with Kevin Gosman on the mound,
who has allowed just five runs inhis last five starts, but he did

(01:14:44):
get absolutely rocked by Houston earlier thisyear back in April. He gave up
seven earned runs and just four anda two thirds innings. So I'm assuming
that's a pretty decent plus number minusone and a half on the run line
there. Yeah, let me pullthat up here because they don't have the
because as it is, it's likeminus one twenty one thirty just on the
money line, right, So you'regonna be looking at yeah, So there

(01:15:05):
you go. So yeah. Imean, if you've got enough conviction behind
the Blue Jays, uh to youknow, do you think they're gonna win
handedly? Why not get the plusnumber on it? Absolutely? I am
certainly going to find myself going tothe Pirates run line naturally against Oakland.
I will be looking at the runline probably for the Dodgers in Cincinnati,

(01:15:27):
um Giants money line, Rangers,money line, very intriguing Angel's money line
at home against the Cubs. Uh, earlier in the day, probably right
back to probably the Marlins run lineagainst Casey. I kind of like the
over in that game too, withGraffy Lzardo can give up plenty of runs.

(01:15:49):
It on his own. Over inthe White Sox Yankees game is a
pretty popular pick. Yeah, anda half runs well Schmidt also, you
know, he didn't give up arun last week against the Mariners. So
so just some early early thoughts,early thoughts. Obviously, you know Dan's
great about tweeting out uh some videoexplanations with his picks, so be sure

(01:16:10):
to stay tuned to his social channels. I'll you know, and I'll likelihood
get some stuff out there as well. If not, you know, obviously
really explore deep into the show.And uh, you know, we already
gave out the parlay earlier. Ifyou missed that, the People's Parlay its
parlay plus. Yeah, that's alsotrue. I like that we built it
out with Sharag if you missed it, gave it out toward the end of

(01:16:31):
the first hour, So go backand enjoy it in the podcast, which
again, like we say, isavailable wherever you get your podcasts be it
obviously, uh you know, Apple, Spotify, Pandora and then and so
on. You know it's it's outthere. So rate reviews, subscribe,
download, become a part of theGambler family. We appreciate you being here
with us. And another fun show, Dan good way to start off our

(01:16:54):
week. Absolutely loved it. Wellif much more NBA talk tomorrow as we
look ahead Wednesday. But I thinkit makes sense, given what is going
on, to focus some of ouryou know, a lot more attention on
baseball. Tomorrow will be more ofa baseball night. And maybe I don't
know, maybe maybe we think aboutwhether or not we want to start to,
you know, put some WNBA bettingtalk into the conversation. It might

(01:17:17):
be approaching that time. It's abig summer sport sure thing. And also
we might get some news out ofFoxborrow tomorrow. Pats are back in front
of the media again. M Somini camp next week. All around the
NFL, we're getting close, you'resmelling. I hope they get to use
all the days all right. Thanksto E. J. Pacheco, our
producer Dan Watkins, our guest JeffUlrich, as well as Shirak here I

(01:17:39):
am Adam Kaufman. Thanks for beingwith us. Really fun show as always,
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman, weeknights, Monday to Thursday, ten to
midnight w RKO. We'll catch youtomorrow. For the best night sleep you've
ever had, go to Mike Pillowdot com and use the code Gambler.
You've been listening to The Gambler withAdam Kaufman.

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