May 17, 2023: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guests Mike Randle (@randlerant) from FTN Network and the Action Network's Jason Sobel (@jasonsobeltan). Sobel offers his favorite outright picks to win the PGA Championship. Randle helps the guys understand what went wrong for the Celtics in their East Finals opener and outlines how to bet Game 2 in Boston. Plus, a look at Game 2 in the West between the Nuggets and Lakers and which props to hammer. The crew also has a new People's Parlay!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Wr KO presidents Boston's only nightly sportsbetting show, The Gambler, with Adam
Kaufman covering spreads, props, parlaysand more. The Gambler starts now here's
Adam Kaufman. Well, if wehad started the show about fifteen minutes ago,
I was feeling a little bit better. I was feeling a little bit
(00:23):
better about what was happening over atthe T D Garden game one of the
Eastern Conference Finals, late third quarter, right now, the Celtics, who
had a nine point lead at halftime, and I realized that's not this big
lead game over anything like that,but certainly left you feeling good going into
the break. The defense was good, distribution was good, balance was good.
(00:44):
Jason Tatum was having a sneaky,really good game despite some foul trouble.
Marcus Smart was playing one of thebest halves of his life. Rob
Williams was a revelation. I realizedthe people's parlay built for tonight was a
little bit of a concern. Tatumnot a whole lot of dimes. In
fact, he's still stuck at one. We need five from him and Al
Horford need seven rebounds. That wasDan's leg Dan Watkins is here and he
(01:07):
has been just they have totally takenhim out of position in terms of where
we've seen him play in previous series. He only has one rebound right now.
The glass has been dominated at leaston the Boston side by Rob Williams,
by Jason Tatum, and yes,Jaylen Brown. Jaylen Brown has eight
rebounds in this game. But themost important thing, more so than props,
in the people's part lay we needthe win. We need the Boston
(01:30):
win tonight. And they are downby six. They are down by six
now with about three minutes little lessthan that to go in the third quarter.
They have already allowed thirty three points, outscored by fifteen points in this
third because they're not getting the stops, the heat moving well. In transition,
they are raining three pointers, theyare controlling the glass, They are
(01:53):
getting the job done currently. BamAdebio is just, you know, the
guy is I've said this before,like in the series against the Knicks and
even in their previous series against Milwaukee, this guy is just. You should
always parlay the fifteen points eight reboundsfor bam Ada Bio or throw them into
a larger parlay whatever you want todo play them separately if you want automatic
(02:14):
legs, automatic legs from BAM autobio. He's at eighteen and seven right
now, with a whole lot oftime left in this game. Jimmy Butler
still has twenty two points, whichis a little scary because you're sort of
waiting for him to erupt. Hegot off to a really hot start,
a little bit quieter in the secondand third quarters, but obviously we know
what he is capable of. Theturnovers are a growing concern, if you
(02:37):
will. They have four this quarterafter only five in the opening half.
So there's a lot to dissect fromthis one, but also a whole lot
of time left in this game.In fact, if you were to take
a look at the betting right now, because obviously, as we remember Celtics,
you were getting no value betting Celticsin this game. It was minus
like three to seventy or something crazyto get Celtics just on the money line
(03:00):
going into this game. In fact, yeah, closed right around three sixty
five, three seventy somewhere. Thatdepends which put through we're looking at right
now. With the Celtics down bysix, you can get the CS on
the money line if you believe theyare going to come back, and this
is not this insurmountable. They're downby six with a quarter and change to
go minus one twenty five, practicallyeven money if you want them on the
spread one minus one fifteen one twentyfive depending on where you look. But
(03:23):
it's only a point and a halfas opposed to the eight and a half
coming into the game. So interms of live betting, there are some
things to think about. But theCeltics are certainly not having an easy night
as compared to what the Red Soxare doing and out away from closing out
the Mariners, just thumping them atFenway Park up nine nothing after two winnings
(03:46):
and cruising from there. So onceagain, the over hit the over hit
folks. That's a Chiching chi chingfor you if you played the Red Sox
over because they do it each andevery game. It feels like, there
you go. Thank you. EJ. Pacheco, our producer, Socks are
on the cusp of improving or goingback to four games over five hundred looking
for the Yankees for the sake ofthe people's parlay and some straight bets for
(04:09):
that batter in Toronto. It's scorelessin the tenth inning, looking for the
Yankees to get a run across.They got a couple of men in scoring
position with two down, so hopefullythey can do that. Not that I
like rooting for the Yankees, butagain, you know, money over mind
if you will, and I wouldlike to enhance my bank roll, and
if that means rooting for the Yankeesfor a singular night, I can do
(04:30):
it. I'm sorry. So,like I said, or if I haven't
Adam Kaufman with you, it's TheGambler with Adam Coffman. We got a
big, fun show coming up.Normally we would do basketball during the first
hour in light of what is goingon, but because this game properly isn't
going to end until somewhere between Idon't know, eleven fifteen, eleven twenty,
somewhere in that range, we're goingto push off our basketball main focus
(04:55):
until our number two of this show. We will be joined for the first
time on the show by Mike Randall, the chief content officer over at FTN
Network. Looking forward to chatting NBAplayoffs with him, most especially this game.
But we'll take a look at Gametwo in the West as well between
the Nuggets and Lakers in the lateron this hour. In fact, in
about ten minutes, our good buddyJason Sobel from the Action Network will join
(05:17):
us to continue our coverage our previewof the PGA Championship in Rochester, where
he is, by the way,toughing out the conditions. Yeah, the
way it begins tomorrow morning, thatis, Dan Watkins. Dan, what
have you thought of what we've seenso far here in this one? Well,
I pretty much had to like crumpleup all my notes from the first
half and throw them out because thethird quarter is the Celtics have just not
(05:39):
well. I'll put it this way, Miami showed up Miami, and the
Miami showed up big time. Imean, Miami's outshooting the Celtics from three
point range right now, which Idid not expect, both in total three
pointers and in percentage wise. Miamiis ten three tonight. The Celts only
have eight. That is very surprising. And the Celtics aren't taking advantage of
the turnovers here in this one either. They've They've gotten quite a few giveaways
(06:01):
by Miami in this one. I'mlooking at it right now. Total turnovers
Miami's turned the ball over twelve timesand the Celtics only have sixteen points from
that compared to the Celts have nineturnovers. Miami is twenty two points off
of turnovers tonight, and the Celticshave gotten a little sloppy at some points.
We've seen a lot of Peyton Pritchardin this one, more so than
I was expecting. We saw PeytonPritchard in the first quarter, which I
(06:23):
definitely He's only at six minutes forthe night, but I guess, you
know, relative that's more than we'reexpecting. I was expecting to be at
zero. Yeah, coming into thisgame, I think he had only played
like thirty ish total minutes in theplayoffs, right, So yeah, I
was very surprised when he checked inand he is he kind of again,
he has played six minutes, butit was that stint and then he promptly
checked out. We haven't seen himsince Joe Massoul's back to going seven deep
(06:45):
right now. Pritchard's in the gamenow, so yeah, it's which a
little weird. So anyways, andthen the other thing, as good as
the Celtics were to close out thefirst half, that's kind of how bad
they've been to start the third quarterhere in Miami's everything we've heard about the
Heat culture, it's legit. Theyare a very fundamentally sound basketball team.
They're also just a team. Notto be cliche, but I think there
(07:08):
are some teams that get to acertain point and they get in their heads,
whether that is you know, sothey sort of cite themselves out a
little bit, or they're worried aboutthe environment of the competition or whatever it
may be. The Miami Heat andJimmy Butler especially, and he is the
head of the snake when it comesto the people on the floor. And
obviously Eric Spoelstra is one of,if not the best coach in the NBA.
And we all know pat Riley leadingup that front office as he has
(07:30):
for a couple decades at this point. But this is a team that is
just not scared, not scared ofthe moment, not scared of Boston,
not scared of the opportunity. Hashad multiple playoff, deep round playoff battles
with the Celtics in recent years.You know, in the Bubble Eastern Conference
Finals, they went to the NBAFinals, beat the Seas. Last year
Eastern Conference Finals certainly could have beatenBoston. Selts prevailed in seven games,
(07:55):
went off to the NBA Finals.We remember what happened there. So this
is a Heat team that came innot to this series, well actually from
a betting perspective, very much intothe series, but into the playoffs in
general, came in undervalued, underrated, underappreciated. And here they are,
third quarter, seizing the moment.I mean, north of forty points in
(08:16):
this quarter by the Miami Heat.I don't know what the hell is going
on with Boston's defense as compared towhat we saw on that opening half.
Yeah, and it's been a littleweird because Rob Williams has kind of been
the weak link of the defense inthis one. I mean, if you
just go by plus minus, he'sminus eighteen. Nobody else on the team
is more than is worse than aminus five. Miami's figured out how to
kind of stretch him out and attackhim there. And yeah, Miami getting
(08:37):
they've gotten what twenty one points fromKyle Lowry and Kevin Love in this one,
when you've only gotten nineteen from MalcolmBrogden and Derek White not something that's
not a good recipe for success.No, obviously, and we're not there
and I don't have the TV turnedup, so I can't really tell in
terms of crowd noise or whatever.But Celtics are gonna have to find a
(08:58):
way. If the crowd is issilent in any way, shape or form,
They're gonna have to wake him up. Gonna have to wake him up,
because this is a team, forbetter or worse, that really feeds
off the crowd. And this isvery much as the heat just proved in
a plus twenty third quarter, twentyfive quarters to go up by eleven points.
This is this is a game thatis far from over. Celtics are
(09:22):
very capable of going on a run. They can go on an eight nothing
run in thirty seconds with multiple threepointers, a couple of stops, and
obviously a lay up, a dunk, whatever. You know. It's just
I'm a little surprised. I kindof this came in general, and I'm
I'm an over guy. I absolutelythought we talked about it last night.
I absolutely thought the total was toolow. But that's about to smash very
(09:46):
quickly. Yeah, it's gonna yeah, it's gonna smash like four minutes into
the fourth quarter, maybe even earlierthan that. They're one nine. They
only need sixteen points, all right, two ten and a half to eleven,
you know, depending on when yougot it. But I was just
looking to see if the live lineis updated. It hasn't got right now.
The Celtics are getting six and ahalf points right now, and the
(10:07):
Celtics live money line is plus twoforty five plus two forty five. So
if you believe Boston is going tocome back and win this game, forget
the spread, if you will.Unless you just think they're you know,
even if they you get them atplus six and a half or whatever,
and you think maybe they'll lose,but lose a close one, than sure
you could put money on that.But if you're looking for value obviously at
(10:28):
plus two whatever, depending on whereyou look or when you look, then
by all means do it if you'vegot the faith in Boston to come back.
We knew there was going to bea game like this. I right
before the game started, right beforethe series started, I mean literally a
couple of minutes before, because Ididn't want to get burned again on betting
the series spread as I was burnedby a game against the Hawks, burned
(10:54):
by a game against the Sixers.I didn't want to do it against the
Heat, but I did sprinkle justa little bit on a correct score,
which is the Celtics winning in six, because I just fully expect, no
matter how much better we all sayor believed the Seas are than the Heat,
I fully expect Miami to take acouple of games. I would like
them to not take game one verymuch. We're looking at the same script
(11:16):
as last year right now. Miamikind of comes in, punches you in
the mouth in game one and wegot to go from there. But this
was we were supposed to see themature, grown up Celtics tonight, right
were They were supposed to have takenthat step and winning game six in Game
seven against the Sixers, and thiswas supposed to be Okay, it's your
time, you're here, you're grownup. But nope, the Celtics kind
of came out flat in the thirdquarter in Miami has taken this game by
(11:39):
the throat and running with it.Celtics allowed the Heat to go eighteen of
twenty six from the field in thethird quarter. Again, I wasn't fully
locked into it because I'm sitting hereand we're talking, but Miami shooting fifty
four percent from three point range inthis one thirteen to twenty four, the
Celtics eight of twenty one. JoeMissoula probably not too happy about that right
(12:01):
now. More to talk about withthis one. We will monitor it,
We're not going to ignore it.We'll give you periodic updates. But our
focus is going to shift to tomorrow'sPGA Championship. We're back to major land
in terms of the golf world,and obviously some live guys there. Dustin
Johnson had a crack earlier today.If you missed it, we'll play that
for you. On the other side, Jason Sobel there from the Golf House
(12:24):
is going to join us, comingup in just a matter of minutes.
Watkins is here, EJ's here,I am here. It is The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman on w RKO.Sick and tired of old sports talk and
want to get right into the action. The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. As
you covered, call us now withsix one seven two six six six eight
(12:45):
six eight. That's six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman will beright back after this is on WRKO.
We're should do You're back all themower back swinging a club or lifting up
a kid. Yeah, letting offa kid, just a bigger kid.
(13:13):
Microphone five. I'm done. Allhail Dustin Johnson. Oh, no one
in the world is having as muchfun as Dustin Johnson. Let me tell
you. Jason Sobel from the ActionNetwork back with us is Adam Coffman.
The Gambler with Adam Coffman. DanWatkins is here as well. Were you
in the room when DJ was talkingabout his sex life. I was not.
(13:35):
I was actually walking to the golfcourse at that point. But yeah,
interesting from DJ. Do we worryabout his back? I mean for
people that are thinking about you know, Bet and Dustin Johnson in this one,
He's fine. Bet, Dustin Johnson. I like DJ a lot.
This week. He's coming off ofway and remember Brooks kept going one right
before the Masters that he fished insecond of the Masters could be a very
(13:58):
similar outcome fort DJ this week.So we had Jeff all Rich, you
know, Jeff on with us lastnight. We were talking about, you
know, just some of his favoriteoutrights, and obviously we were talking about
the favorites in general, and atthat time, yeah, Cheffler and Ram
is co favorites plus seven fifty andRom is now plus eight fifty. So
(14:18):
talk why the movement. I don'tknow, because Ram is getting more of
the percentage of handel and tickets rightnow, so I don't understand how Rom's
gotten longer and Scotty's basically stayed wherehe is. Quite frankly, I did
a ranking of the top twenty fivein the field. I have Rom a
little bit higher, a couple ofspaces higher than Cheffler. I think Rom's
(14:41):
fifth on my list and Cheffler's eighthor whatever. But if I had waited
until now to do the ranking,I would probably have that reverse that.
Scotty, from all reports, wasstriping it today on the golf course.
He's playing really well. I interviewedhim yesterday one on one, and Scotty
said, as opposed to most ofthe player, most of the players are
like, man, it's really hard. There's gonna play more like a US
(15:03):
Open, the PJA Championship. Oh, it's gonna be difficult. Scotty says
to me, Man, this isso much fun. It's like a really
cool challenge. I really enjoy this. I love that mindset, I love
the attitude. I really like Scotti. This week, Was it Jason Day?
A lot of people are excited aboutJason Day going into this tournament.
Was it him? All the tweetswere going around earlier basically saying, you
know, it wasn't doing a practiceround, hadn't even checked out the course.
(15:26):
You know it had had the attitudelike he was just getting ready to
go out for a guy's weekend withhis buddies, not playing a major golf
tournament. Yeah, if his buddiesare four kids in the wife and a
few nannies hanging out with him thisweek, then Jason Day is having a
buddy's trip. But now, look, Jason is He's wiped after last week
he hadn't wanted over five years,and he finally gets that elusive thirteenth victory
(15:50):
that he'd been waiting for. He'dbeen trending in the right direction. He's
just a little wiped out from lastweek. This wasn't a major championship this
week. I have a feeling thatJason he wouldn't even be playing right now.
But he's here because it's a major, and because you know you have
to go out and play well.But I will put I will say this
(16:10):
much. I talked to Jason todayas well. I don't get a sense
that Jason is quite ready to playhis best golf right after winning last week.
And it's funny because I asked himabout this, and I'm sure he
doesn't remember it, but years ago, and this is based on what Tiger
has said for twenty five years,and all the world's best players have glommed
onto this o over time, whichis I want my game to peak four
(16:33):
times a year. And years agoI asked Jason, well, how do
you get your game to peak ata certain time? And I remember the
time He's kind of threw his armsup there and short, I don't know.
He's like, it's not like I'mnot gonna play well the week before
I'm made. Jersey's like, I'mjust trying to play as good as I
can every single time. And Iasked him, how do you get a
game to peak again one week afterit peaked last week? He's he said,
(16:57):
I'm not shrug again because I don'thave an answer to that. I
don't know how I can go outand play my best golf again this week,
but I don't know. Maybe ithappens without playing a practice round,
but that doesn't seem like a greatway to go about getting into this first
round here at Okill, which iscompletely different from twenty thirteen, and he
was in contention in twenty thirteen andhe doesn't remember anything about it. Jason
(17:19):
Willey, have you for about threemore minutes? Who are some of your
favorite outrights to bet this week?I am on Sunjaym, which is based
on a trend that we've seen onthe PGA Tour over the last few weeks,
which we've seen Tony Fen Now he'sbeen playing great golf, hadn't had
that real spike week where he playshis best golf, had it the Mexico
(17:40):
Open he won. Wyndham Clark wasplaying great golf, hadn't really had that
spike week, won at the WellsFargo Championship. Same thing with Day last
week. Sunjaym three straight top tenson the DJA Tour. Went to Korea
last week for some weird reason,but one over there. He's a guy
that I'm ready for. I'm readyfor him to day the next step.
I like him a lot. I'llalso have that writes on Xander Shafley,
(18:03):
who admittedly is kind of short atsixteen to one, but he's ready to
go win one of these big ones. Max Homa, I spoke with yesterday,
very confident on this golf course tDe Green. He's playing very well.
Reminds a little bit in a weirdway of TVC Potomac at Abdel Farms
where he won the Wells Fargo Championshiplast year. And so I think Max
(18:25):
is a nice play And then ifyou want to take some long shot plays,
I wouldn't go too far off theradar. But Keegan Bradley, who's
played a lot of golf in theNortheast, I think he's a guy that
at ninety to one one hundred toone will be pretty good. And Gary
Woodlands played some good golf. He'sninety to one as well. I wouldn't
go too much past that, thoughin our last couple of minutes, I'll
leave it to you whether it's favoriteat tourney matchups or finishing positions, whatever.
(18:52):
Some of your favorite bets are ingeneral going into the PGA Championship.
Yeah, some of the same guys. So Maxhoma is a guy that I'll
hit for our top ten along withCameron Young. Cameron Young not quite a
home game. He grew up aboutfive hours away from here, so we
can't call it a home game.But this definitely OK Hill has some characteristics
of the courses that Cameron Young playedgrowing up in the New York area,
(19:15):
and so I think he'll be alittle bit at home. It's not a
home game. I like him fora top ten. He's in top ten
at three and last four major championships, and this one should work for him
as well. And again I'll goback to Homa. Look, matchups are
always tough when I'm asked about himon the radio, because every book has
different matchups. And so I havebeen an advocate for a long time of
(19:36):
why can't we bet any player againstany other player? Give us a line
on it, and I would loveto see that at some point in golf
betting. I think the marketplace itselfhas to get bit before we find all
those algorithms out there. But MaxHoma in some books is listed at one
twenty against Sam Bourns. I knowMax hasn't played his best golf at major
(19:56):
championships yet neither as Sam Burns andSam Burn plays his best golf in the
southeastern part of the country up withUtah Greens. This doesn't seem a place
where he would play his best.I like back home is a little bit
of a favorite in that matchup thisweek, Jason. Unfortunately, we're out
of time. I'd love to talkto you more, but we have to
send you back into the depths ofdespair that is Rochester, New York.
(20:18):
Oh boy, I gotta go backhere, all right. Well, in
that case, I'll say ghost CelticsGame two. We'll get him. Thanks
buddy, We'll talk to you againin the weeks to come, for sure.
Jason Spa from the Action Network,appreciate it. Welcome back to the
Gambler with Adam Kaufman's Celtics of courselost tonight, pummeled in the third quarter
(20:41):
by Miami, Game one of theEast Finals. Ultimately, because as Joe
Missoula will tell you, they wonthree quarters. They won the first,
they won the second, they wonthe fourth, but they still lost the
game by seven points. Jason Tatumthirty, Jaylen Brown pretty efficient two,
but too many turnovers between the twoof them, a total of ten.
(21:03):
As we were talking about a littlebit earlier in the Celtics. You know,
three point shooting a big difference inthis one. Selts ten out of
twenty nine as compared to sixteen forthirty one from Miami. Thirty five points
for Jimmy Butler in this game.Six steals. I don't even know if
it's possible to bet six plus steals, and I've never looked. You know,
usually with Bucker, I'm pretty comfortablebet in two plus. You know,
(21:26):
especially with the way that he's beengoing six What in the world would
the number have been with six plussteals? Bam at a bio like I
said, Oh, reliable, he'salways going to get you fifteen and eight.
Parlay that or put it into yourparlays. He's always going to get
you fifteen and eight plus. Hewent twenty and eight tonight plus five assists.
And then you had good production fromthe likes of Vincent and Strew Streuss,
(21:48):
who started off you know, heinto anything for a while. It
took forever for him to even takea shot, and he goes six out
of ten for fifteen points in aplus fifteen in this game, which was
second only to Bam. You hadfifteen off the bench for Martin, fifteen
for Lowry. Just a good resurgentperformance out of the heat tonight. You
have to respect it. You know, stinks obviously, but but you have
(22:12):
to respect it. And as wewere just talking about, Celtics are now
nine point favorites in Game two Fridaynight, which is what about forty five
hours away from now. We willnot be on that night, so we
will all be enjoying it in ourown way. I may have to wash
(22:33):
the good lucture that I've been rockingthe last few games. Comfortable favorites on
the money line minus four twenty,I want to check out, and we're
gonna be joined by Mike Randall.Momentarily, I want to look at East
Finals and what has happened here.So the Celtics are still minus two twenty
to win the series, which isobviously a considerably better number than what it
(22:56):
was. Tatum is pretty close toeven money for conference miles, MVP total
games. If you were looking,if you believe, as I bet prior
that Boston's going to win this seriesfour two, you know that there were
going to be a couple of gamesthe heat we're gonna steal. I wasn't
banking on game one. But herewe are plus three eighty plus three eighty
(23:18):
as compared to if you think theseries is going to go seven plus two
thirty with Boston winning. It isstill very long odds for the Heat to
win this series. Although although Iwill say plus four forty for the Heat
to take it in six as opposedto the Celtics to take it in six,
that is pretty close. So there'svalue. There's certainly value. You
(23:41):
know, you could argue on eitherside. If you're not if you don't
have conviction as to who is goingto win, you just want to talk
total games. Well that's locked rightnow, so I can't give you those
numbers. That's that's all. Stillupdating series spread still Celtics minus one and
a half, although you can getthat at one forty eight, so plus
money on that. So some differentthings obviously to consider. Let's bring in
(24:04):
Mike Randall, chief content officer atFTN Network. First time on this show
for Mike, and from what Iunderstand, a Boston college grad as well,
so keeping it local. Mike,how are you man? Hey?
Great? Thanks for having me onWhat a night A crazy game? Yeah,
if crazy is synonymous with crappy then, sure, yeah, yeah it
(24:26):
was for us, everything seemed looksfine. They're just crazy what went on
here tonight really concerning Sure, wegot a lot to talk about. Thanks
for having me, yeah, ofcourse, and thanks for being here obviously.
So what are your impressions coming outof this one in terms of how
it would make you bet the nextnext game of the series on Friday?
I realize, you know, informationsevolving and lines are going to move,
(24:48):
and you know we don't have allthe prop information and all that stuff,
but just you know, general outlookor get as specific as you want,
you know, independent of having numbersto rely on based on what you saw
in game one? What are youon do you think in game two?
Yeah? I think with Boston you'recautiously optimistic here because they've shown the ability
to bounce back against adversity throughout theentire playoffs. But my major concern is
(25:11):
there's so many questions that have comeout of this game. They have to
play with a lot more cohesion.How do they lose this game? When
Marcus Smart has double digit assists inthe first half, I mean, everything
seemed to be facilitating, but theonly problem is When this Celtics team gets
down, they tend to revert tothe one on one basketball. So I
would still be on Boston. Iexpect them to bounce back. They did
(25:34):
so against Philadelphia. We saw themin the playoffs do that. But I
would be cautiously optimistic because this isa critical game. Tatum always steps up
in those spots. Brown has donehistorically well that his points per game against
Miami, but this was a concerningone, especially the way it was at
the half. There's no value,Mike, obviously in betting Boston in the
money line, I'm seeing it atminus four twenty. So would you have
(25:56):
the guts quite frankly, after whatwe just sought to bet Boston with the
points at minus nine, would youmaybe try and get creative and have Boston
be like a you know, acombo first half, full time win or
something like that that you could geta more favorable number on. What do
you think of the play is here? Well, you know, the situation
is that when you bet the team, rarely does the point spread come into
(26:19):
play. So I am going tobe on Boston and I'm gonna lay the
nine points, and I know that'shard to envision but this is a situation
where they're gonna have to win.You've seen them have big wins before.
You saw them destroy Philadelphia in Gameseven. You saw them go down to
Philadelphia in Game three and win bytwelve points. So if I like Boston,
I'm laying the points tonight. Ireally took the eight and a half
(26:42):
with the heat because I thought theywould keep it close and could steal it.
And you know that historically Game oneis the game you can steal on
the road. But I expect thisteam to bounce back. And again,
this is still a Miami team thatis undermanned for two games in a row.
To have six guys in double figures, that's asking a lot here.
I expect the Celtics to bounce bigin Game two. What surprises me a
(27:02):
little bit in this one is youknow, everybody, I mean everybody was
on It was like a favorite betof the night for a lot of people.
Joe Delaire was with us last night. He was all over this.
I played it all over the place. Jason Tatum over four and a half
assist. It just sort of feltlike one of those all reliable type of
plays. He only has one assistin this game, not just that.
(27:26):
You know, we usually feel likein a game like this we can bank
on let's say three plus three pointersout of Tatum. He only took three
attempts and went one of three.What do you what did you observe in
terms of what went wrong or justwhat credit you give to Spolstra and Miami's
(27:47):
defense for the way they played him. Yeah, we saw it tonight.
You know, Spolstra is one ofthe top coaches in the league, and
Joe Mazilla is still the youngest coachin the FBA right now. So I
think what you saw was a gameplay and you're gonna have to see schemes
here. So Missoula's got to comeback with something that he has to make
an adjustment on. You know,Robert Williams dominating, I'm sure you talked
about fourteen point seven rebounds, washaving trouble with Bam, but for him
(28:11):
to not play for the majority ofthe fourth quarter very questionable. The key
is they have to decide what theywant to take away. Max Strus was
invisible in the first half. Bostondid a great job on him. All
of a sudden, he gets onfire in the third quarter, So I
expect them to find a way tocontinue to limit Bam. They have to
come off of Butler. They haveto get out and run, and they
(28:33):
have to show more on their offense. Brogden and Smart. When they run
this offense, that's when they're attheir best. People cutting to the best,
gets Smart, hitting Williams for theallee. That's what it has to
happen. Yes, Tatum and Brownare the best scores. We get that,
but you can't do against Miami andEric Spoelster and this defense and the
momentum they have. You cannot justclear out and let them go one on
(28:56):
one. You know, Butler's shotscame late in the fourth quarter that were
created by other players. Even BAM'schucked a half court were almost stepped out
of the bounds. That was apass out. What happened with the Celtics
in this game is when they getin trouble, they look for Brown or
Tatum to go one on one andbail them out. I think the seat
team is way too good defensively tolet that happen. They are going to
(29:17):
guard you on the three point line. They did it tonight. Boston only
ten of twenty nine from three pointrange tonight. On the other hand,
in Miami, sixteen of thirty oneprops obviously aren't out yet for game two.
But the lines for these things,you know, the numbers obviously,
the minus whatever plus whatever, like, well, we'll see what that is.
But in terms of totals, likewe know Tatum's going to be around,
(29:38):
you know, twenty eight, twentynine and a half points and so
like, numbers generally at this pointare are fairly predictable. So that in
mind, are there any props thatyou envision you will be on for game
two again after you know, usinggame one is a small sample. Absolutely,
If I believe in the Celtics,I always like to tether the props
to the result. If I believeeven the Celtics, and I believe in
(30:00):
Marcus Smart. Marcus Smart's point,rebounds and assist numbers have been phenomenal twenty
five, twenty three, forty five, twenty seven, hitting them across the
board. He has hit his overwith his points, rebounds assists sixty four
percent of the time against Miami thisyear. Tonight he puts in thirty,
of course and has the big game. So I would be looking to tether
(30:22):
my props here to the players thatI expect to do well. I got
Marcus Smart to lead this series andassist at plus two forty. On Draft
Kings, Jimmy Butler was the overwhelmingfavorite. I did not see that happening
here, So I think that Smartis the key. I'm going to be
all over his props as well.And I also like Jalen Brown because Jalen
Brown last thirteen games, he hasfaced the heat twenty eight or more points
(30:45):
five times, and he had twoover thirty six before tonight. So I
think there could be a big JalenBrown performance as well. I'd be looking
at his over and Marcus smarts overbecause I expect the Celtics to bounce back
in Game two. So, Mike, we do a thing on the show
here called the People's Parlay. We'regonna do this in the next segment.
You're going to be part of it. The way this works is I will
pick a leg. Dan Watkins,who you haven't heard from yet, will
(31:07):
pick a leg, and you,the guest of the program, will pick
a leg. And the only commitment, I don't care what book you use,
I don't care how much you wagercould be a dollar could be a
one hundred dollars. That is yourbusiness. But you are required to play
the parley with us so that wecan all you know, from our respective
homes, sweat this thing tomorrow nighttogether in a matter of speaking. So
during the break, that is youropportunity to do a little bit of homework,
(31:30):
pick your leg whatever it is,and we will do that. On
the other side, we will alsolook ahead to Game two, which is
tomorrow night between the Lakers and Nuggets. Mike Randall with us from FTN Network,
Chief content officer. Over there,we'll be back on The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman. Sick and tired ofbold sports talk and want to get right
into the action. The Gambler withAdam Kaufman, has you covered? Call
(31:53):
us now with six one seven twosix six six eight six eight. That's
six one two six six six eightsix eight. The Gambler with Adam Koffman
will be right back after this ison WRKO. Mike Randalls with us,
chief content officer at FTN Network.Just previously, prior to the break,
(32:15):
went over the rules of the People'sparlay, which we will build at the
end of the segment. You're goodwith it, Mike, You're ready.
I'm ready to go absolutely awesome,can't wait. We will do that in
a little bit, but first letus look ahead to Game two, not
of the Celtics series. We didthat and I don't want to talk anymore
about them right now. It willonly make me upset Game two between the
(32:37):
Nuggets and Lakers after just a quitea showing by Denver, nearly a blowout,
should have been a blowout, gotclose. La put up a fight
in that opener. Obviously in DenverGame two US tomorrow night five and a
half point favorites. I'm seeing Denverat right now inflated total as expected after
what we saw in Game one,the points of two twenty six and a
half. What are your expectations forGame two from a perspective, and is
(33:00):
Yokis just going to go out andabuse the over of every prop again?
Well, I expect them to makesome adjustments. You know, Rory Hashimura
did a tremendous job in the fourthquarter defending Yokich. They're gonna make some
changes here on Denver now. Ialso think that I don't think Denver shooting
fifteen to thirty two from three pointrange forty six point nine percent, so
(33:22):
I expect them to have a lowerscoring game, a slower paced game.
Those concerns coming the series that thealtitude was going to bother the Lakers.
I think this one's gonna be muchmore lower scoring. I think it's going
to be a close game, andI expected to make some adjustments here on
Yokich. The player I'm worried aboutif I'm the Lakers is Michael Porter Junior.
Ten rebounds, fifteen points. Wehad that on our model. We
(33:43):
love Michael Porter Junior in the series, so I think they're gonna try to
limit Murray. I think they're gonnatry to go slower with Yokich, and
I expect a closer, low scoringgame here for the Lakers. Any favorite
props? Yeah, right off thebat, I like Hashimura, who's beaten
his fifteen and a half points,rebounds, and assists in the two games
against Denver. I expect him todo it again. They're gonna have to
(34:05):
guard him. He's gonna have tocome in and give them big minutes.
He at twenty eight minutes off thebench. De'angel Russell did not do much
here, so Hashimore could see thirtypoints. The other one I like is
let's go under with Jamal Murray.I know he was unconscious and had a
fantastic game, but he got offto a great start as only beaten his
prop here points, rebounds and assiststwenty nine and a half. That's awfully
low, right for a player thatat thirty one points by himself. I'm
(34:28):
going under on that one because he'sgone under against the Lakers sixty percent of
the time last year and a half. I'm surprised looking at some of the
models that I track and pay attentionto this stuff that it is encouraging and
I don't think I'll do it.I just don't like the bet, but
it is encouraging a contavious Caldwell popeunder pra a. And it's only said
at fifteen and a half. Imean he had six more points than that
(34:52):
in game one, let alone theother categories. Yeah, certainly got his
revenge game right. That revenge gamenarrow always going to be something that's interesting.
He got hot there from three andhe was part of the reason they
were scalding. But if you lookat him, it's ten point five points,
which is interesting. Here he's goneunder this one in sixty percent of
the last ten. He's gone underin sixty percent of his last five yere
(35:13):
so yeah, and under across theboard here for contavious call ball pup,
I like to fade the big game. I'm with you. Twenty one point
three abay from three point range again, tether the props to the game.
I think it's going to be lowerscoring. I don't mind any unders here
that you're looking at. It wasa little frustrating when Denver was up by
twenty points and it ended up beinga push in terms of the spread.
(35:34):
Is Denver going to cover this time? I like the Lakers and the points,
so, like I said earlier,I'm going to take them, and
I would take them to win itoutright. I think this is going to
be a longer series. I thinkthere's gonna be some adjustments here. Was
disturbed against Phoenix when Michael Malone justsimply could not stop Durant and Booker in
those two games three and four.I think the key is you have to
(35:55):
realize that Lebron James in this game, he likes to distribute, he likes
to get everyone involved. Listen,Lebron, there's sometimes you have to take
matters into your own hands. Ithink he has to have a big scoring
game and a big impact him andAnthony Davis. This does not seem to
be the series. Or we're gonnatwenty one points here from Russell and a
lot of points and Hilary. He'sgot to put in a thirty point game,
(36:16):
and if he does that, Ithink the Lakers can steal game two.
Yeah. So I was just gonnasay, like Davis wasn't just a
monster, he was a monstar.To give the space jam theme in game
one, he was incredible. Iwas surprised. Lebron and we talked about
this a little bit last night.It's not like it's out of character game
one a playoff series, he tendsto be a little bit more, not
(36:37):
passive necessarily, but sort of.It's always a feelout game for him,
and that certainly was the case againstDenver. He has to be more aggressive
in this one, right, Yeah, he does. He's been under his
points prop seventy percent of the timein the playoffs last three games, though
against Denver twenty six, thirty andtwenty six. It's hovering right now,
we're on twenty five and a half. I think he recognizes that. I
(36:59):
think he's going to give them amonster performance. We could use not to
bring back bad memories here, wecould use a performance where he had against
Boston years ago in the playoffs.In the first half. If he doesn't
want to go down two oh,he's got to put about eighteen twenty points
up in the first half and thenhe can facilitate. It's almost like he
has to be backwards in the past. For the last few series, he's
gotten everyone else involved. Austin reeveseveryone going and he scored late. Now
(37:22):
I think it has to be theopposite. He has to set the tone
here, especially on the road againstDenver high scoring team, and they're gonna
have to play together and then hecan get them going late like Dennis Shrewder
players like that. All right,we've got you for a couple more minutes.
Let's do the people's part lay foranyone that missed it. Dan will
offer a leg, Mike here willoffer a leg. I will offer a
leg. We will build it together, we will play it together. Use
(37:42):
whichever book you want, wag orwhatever you want, but we will get
the sweat going together, which isalways fun. And you being the guest
Mike, start us off. Whatdo you like tomorrow? All right,
So Tomorrow night for Lakers and Denver. The first one I'm going with exactly
what I talked about. Lebron onover on his points. It's twenty five
and a half, it's minus onetwenty right now, we'll go at draft
(38:06):
Kings. He's been over this numberfifty nine percent of the time this year.
He's been over in three of thelast five, and he's been over
at like I said, sixty percentof the time against Denver. This is
a play that I do not thinkDenver's defense is that impressive. I don't
think if he's in attack mode,they're going to be able to do much.
Certainly going to be worried about Davisinside. So we'll kick it off.
Big players in big games, guys, Lebron James over twenty five and
(38:29):
a half points. All right,I'm getting that pretty close to even money,
which is nice. Dan. Whatdo you have tomorrow? Yeah,
So I'm gonna go baseball. Nota big slate tomorrow, but we do
have the Dodgers and Cardinals going atit, and I'm gonna go over eight
and a half runs in that game. It's Wulio Urius First, Adam Wayne
Right Waynewright has not been great sincehe's camp come back this season. He's
(38:50):
given up at least four runs andeach of his two starts. The Dodgers
could get close to this eight anda half by themselves. They have some
great career numbers and career splits againstWaynewright. So give me the over in
that game, all right, guys, And I'm gonna bring this one home
with and over as well, exceptI'm gonna go to hockey. I've been
wanting to play this for a coupleof days, and tomorrow's the night I
get to do it. Panthers andHurricanes to open up the East Conference Finals.
(39:13):
I'm gonna go over five and ahalf goals for us. A good
chunk of the betting community is alreadyon that bet as well. I know
that we had Jeff Ulrich on lastnight, as if I remember correctly,
he didn't really like the play.You know, he wanted the under.
Yeah, he was tending to trendunders, especially with you know, the
white Carolina plays at home and allthat. But I just think we've we've
(39:34):
seen some explosive offensive play from bothof these teams. And it's not a
lot to ask for six goals ina game with the way they have been
playing. So you put those together, over five and a half total goals
between the Panthers and Hurricanes, overtwenty five and a half points Lebron James
between the Lakers and Nuggets, obviously, and over eight and a half or
depending where you're looking, nine totalruns between the Dodgers and Cardinals. That
(39:59):
brings me, guys to almost plussix hundred. So that is a nice
parlay for tomorrow that we get tosweat together. Very nice. Can't wait.
This is great, all right,I'm looking forward to it. Mike,
Thanks so much for hopping on withus. We will definitely do it
again as the playoffs roll on.And I'm sure you are, you know,
based on your Twitter and your work, I'm sure you're a big football
(40:21):
guys will get you during football seasonas well. Oh, can't wait,
guys, Paul, let's get ourpopcorn ready for game two. Thanks for
having me, all right, MikeRandal, chief content officer over at FTN
Network. So all right, youknow, place the bets. I'm gonna
do it. I'm gonna officially actuallyplace it during the break maybe you out
there listening as well. If youwant to sneak in a call during our
(40:42):
final segment, you're welcome. Sixone seven two six six six eight six
eight. That is six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.
And it's about time to put thisshow to bed. It goes buying a
blank, doesn't it. We'll beright back. It's time to put this
show to bed. With pillow makesit tired listening to other people yawned,
(41:07):
doesn't it, even if it's arecording Watkins? Yeah, maybe a little
bit. Yeah, you're like,yeah, man, sure, except I'm
not done with my work yet,right, can't be tired, nonsense.
I got a whole bunch of postgamessound to go through. Really looking forward
to it. It's gonna be great. Yeah, all right, Well,
(41:27):
thanks to the folks at my pillow. It is time to put this show
to bed. Before I put myhead on a my pillow, and I
will, and I do, andI enjoy it thoroughly. Let's look ahead
to tomorrow. I know we didn'treally do any hockey talking this one,
but the East Conference Finals in theNHL, as I mentioned, gets underway
tomorrow. Panthers are the dogs.In Carolina. You know it's the betting
(41:49):
is fairly split, whether it's thehandle or the percentage of bets being placed
between these two teams. The goalline, which is plus one and a
half for Florida slightly favoring the Panthersin this game, I think it's,
you know, kind of crazy.We'll see what ends up happening. I
wouldn't take Carolina to win by multiplegoals in this one. I might bet
Carolina just to win. On themoney line, you can get a good
(42:12):
number on that. I'm seeing minusone forty. But the conviction is on
the over. That's where I'm at. And I do like the over in
the game on Friday between the Starsand Golden Nights as well. We can
talk more about that tomorrow. Asfar as basketball goes, obviously the big
game that we'll be following tomorrow night, and we'll have a I don't know
who yet, but we will havean NBA guest with us, maybe even
a baseball guests. We'll see howthe night chakes out and what the day
(42:35):
looks like. The I don't knowif I'll bet the over in that game.
Two twenty seven and a half pointsis is a big number. I
imagine I will bet Denver to notonly win, but to cover. I
like, Yeah, I like Denver. I like Denver a lot, and
I like the five and a halfpoints. I understand everything that Mike was
saying about, you know, expectingthe bounce back from la and expecting Lebron
(42:55):
to go off. And I'll havesome side bets, maybe some straight props
or something like that. But Iam drawn a little bit to Denver and
and just to look at major LeagueBaseball quickly and then we'll get dance thoughts
on everything. Um again, Ilike to sort of let things settle after
the evening, so I won't placebets tonight. I'll i'll, I'll do
(43:15):
it in the morning or throughout theday. I haven't looked to see when
first pitch is to sort of beginthe action. But uh, some games
that I am drawn to Orioles overthe Angels, probably on the money line,
very good, he's on the Raysin New York. I mean,
Mets are dead to me, soI in the show. Yeah, and
(43:36):
and pretty much even money there,pretty close to it off fashion tonight.
By the way, I know,I'll probably even take the raise on the
run line. Look for a bounceback out of them, and uh maybe
the maybe the under in the WhiteSox Guardians game, like the White Sox
with the run line as well,And uh but I probably the Yankees at
(43:59):
plus money on the money line.Those are some of the things that I'm
looking at at the moment. Buthow about you, Yeah, so I'll
start baseball here. That White Soxplay, I liked that a lot too.
Dylan Cease on the mound. Finally, in his last start, he
looked like the guy many people wereexpecting him to be this season. When
he didn't allow a run to Houston, a lot of people were thinking,
you know, he might be acy young play this year. But he
(44:20):
has been roughed up quite a bituntil this last starts, so maybe he's
got something going going against Cleveland tomorrow. I like Chicago a lot there than
that Orioles pick. I liked thattoo, as we mentioned. And then
my parlay pick, which was theDodgers over against the Cardinals. There.
I'll probably even take the Dodgers soloin that one too. I might even
do it go run line there.The one I wish more props were out.
(44:43):
Yeah, I don't know when likethe full slate of props come out,
but unfortunately it's never right in thiswindow when I would love to talk
about them. But Nolan Arronado hasgreat career in numbers against urus, so
I'll definitely be looking in on him. He did not Homer tonight, so
Homer streak ended at what was itfive? Five? Yeah? Five?
But Ronald still drove in runs.Yeah, I saw all the tweets about
his thousandth career RBI. Yeah,the RBI streak lives on and Ronald thea
(45:06):
coonan junior. He hit a homerun tonight. He's got four straight home
runs. The Braves are off tomorrowthough. That hockey game, I you
know, I'm tempted. I'm verytempted to just take the Panthers on the
money line. There's six and oneon the road. I know both of
our hockey guests this week we're verymuch against that. But I kind of
I'm I just have this feeling andthere's no I have no data or stats
(45:30):
or anything to back it up,but Florida just kind of has that that
feel to them where they're gonna makethis run and make this a really long
run and take this all the wayinto the Cup Finals. So I like
Florida tomorrow night to pull out agame one and kind of shot Carolina,
and Carolina is gonna see what theBruins and Toronto's dealt with the past two
rounds. And then in basketball,I agree with a lot of what Mike
(45:50):
said. I think tomorrow night's tonightthat we see Lebron show up in the
Lakers take that game. I'll definitelybe taking them plus five and a half.
It's gonna have to be aggressive Lebron. I mean, I don't know
how I feel about the ultimate outcome, but but we have to. I
agree with what he said, wehave to have a big game out of
Lebron James and I, yeah,our guy EJ is all about like there's
there's some Homerism there for EJ,even though he's an enemy's territory. But
(46:13):
yeah, I will be well,obviously, I just did take the over
on points as part of our parlay, but I'm sure I'll be playing that
straight as well, maybe even attackas pra A. I got to see
what the number is. I haven'tlooked. Um it's interesting. I saw,
you know, some of the metricsactually favor going under on his rebound
prop, which is nine and ahalf, and I get it, you
know, he typically is nine orbelow. But he went for a dozen
(46:36):
last game. And I just thinkhe's going to be aggressive. So I'm
I'm not so sure I'm gonna gonear that one that that might be a
stay away spot for me tonight ortomorrow night. Yeah, I just I
just have this feeling. I thinkla the way they looked in the second
half there, I think they gotsomething going and they got some good momentum
going into that game tomorrow night.So and then Yokis didn't have a point
(46:58):
in the fourth quarter last night.I didn't even realize that. Yeah,
well for a while, didn't haveto. Yeah, and then obviously it
you know, got tighten. Well, he didn't have a basket because he
made he made the one, hemade the one free throw made two though,
Yeah, joker, We'll imagine ifhe didn't hit that ridiculous three pointer,
right, yeah, right, LikeI thought of that driving home last
night. I'm like, we wouldn'teven gotten the push we didn't hit that
(47:20):
ridiculous three point show. All right, he's back at our good graces.
We love him again. Yeah,one thing that we are going to do
tomorrow tomorrow night. I'm looking forwardto this. We're gonna have our buddy
Chris Carney from Raynham Park Bass onwith us a look ahead of the Preakness
Stakes, which are taking place Saturday, of course over at Pimlico in Baltimore.
So we'll be able to do that. That'll be a good time.
(47:42):
It's it's fun to bet the ponies. Man, so get his take on
that. Although he didn't have madefor us last time, he hinted at
him, I think to place placea show. Yeah, I think place
or show. He didn't have himas an outright winner, but he said
he did like he liked him toat least be there at the end somewhere,
and he ended up being there.Yeah, so yeah, it's true.
He read it. So we willsee what ends up happening. What
(48:07):
his picks are. I know Iwas texting him earlier. I know he's
putting in his research. He's excitedto jump back on the show with us,
and like I said, we'll getsomeone on for NBA, MLB or
both. We'll see. Should bea good time and you know, try
and just digest all that happened inthe selfis game tonight and get more optimism
looking ahead to game two. Somake sure you find the podcast. It
(48:30):
comes out after the show, andof course I will tweet it out at
Adam M. Kaufman. You canget Dan on Twitter at Dan Watkins Radio.
We will post the show tomorrow.Get you set up in terms of
all your betting needs, stuff thatwe covered tonight to get you ready to
place your bets for tomorrow. Ifyou missed any of the show tonight,
but if you did, shame onyou. We're with you ten to midnight,
(48:51):
couple hour commitment each night. Hopefullyyou hang out with us. If
not, like I said, checkout the pot. It is available to
you wherever you get your podcasts,be at Apple or Spotify or Pandora,
you know you name it. iHeartMedia'swebsite. Obviously, we are all over
the place, rate, review,subscribe. We do greatly appreciate it and
we appreciate our guests. Of course, we had Mike Randall from FTN Network
(49:13):
earlier, Jason Sobel from Action Network. I got to play some golf bets
before I go to bed, sinceI do not envision being up when they
start. So we got that frostdelay, so it might not it might,
it might be pushed back. That'strue, said, Yeah, Hell
on Earth is what Sobel made Rochestersound like. Unfortunately that part may not
be part of the podcast in theinterest of time only, but not not
(49:35):
because he said anything egregious that wehave to cut. He was amazing.
He's always amazing, So hopefully we'llget him back on real soon as well.
As you know, we get moreand more bigger golf tournaments down the
line, but you can't get biggerin the major. Yeah, the us
olpings in in LA this year,so I think he'll like that one a
little better. Yeah, yeah,exactly that that'll be much friendlier for the
time zone. So all right,we're gonna get out of here. Thanks
(49:58):
to our producer e J. Peck, Thanks to our guests, Thanks to
Dan Watkins. This is The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman. I am Adam Kaufman.
We'll talk to you again tomorrow night, ten pm sharp. For the
best night sleep you've ever had,go to Mikepillow dot com and use the
code Gambler. You've been listening toThe Gambler with Adam Kaufman on six eighty
(50:20):
WRKO, Boston's first and only nightlysports betting show, airing live Monday through
Thursday nights from ten to midnight.
Wr KO presidents Boston's only nightly sportsbetting show, The Gambler, with Adam
Kaufman covering spreads, props, parlaysand more. The Gambler starts now here's
Adam Kaufman. Well, if wehad started the show about fifteen minutes ago,
I was feeling a little bit better. I was feeling a little bit
(00:23):
better about what was happening over atthe T D Garden game one of the
Eastern Conference Finals, late third quarter, right now, the Celtics, who
had a nine point lead at halftime, and I realized that's not this big
lead game over anything like that,but certainly left you feeling good going into
the break. The defense was good, distribution was good, balance was good.
(00:44):
Jason Tatum was having a sneaky,really good game despite some foul trouble.
Marcus Smart was playing one of thebest halves of his life. Rob
Williams was a revelation. I realizedthe people's parlay built for tonight was a
little bit of a concern. Tatumnot a whole lot of dimes. In
fact, he's still stuck at one. We need five from him and Al
Horford need seven rebounds. That wasDan's leg Dan Watkins is here and he
(01:07):
has been just they have totally takenhim out of position in terms of where
we've seen him play in previous series. He only has one rebound right now.
The glass has been dominated at leaston the Boston side by Rob Williams,
by Jason Tatum, and yes,Jaylen Brown. Jaylen Brown has eight
rebounds in this game. But themost important thing, more so than props,
in the people's part lay we needthe win. We need the Boston
(01:30):
win tonight. And they are downby six. They are down by six
now with about three minutes little lessthan that to go in the third quarter.
They have already allowed thirty three points, outscored by fifteen points in this
third because they're not getting the stops, the heat moving well. In transition,
they are raining three pointers, theyare controlling the glass, They are
(01:53):
getting the job done currently. BamAdebio is just, you know, the
guy is I've said this before,like in the series against the Knicks and
even in their previous series against Milwaukee, this guy is just. You should
always parlay the fifteen points eight reboundsfor bam Ada Bio or throw them into
a larger parlay whatever you want todo play them separately if you want automatic
(02:14):
legs, automatic legs from BAM autobio. He's at eighteen and seven right
now, with a whole lot oftime left in this game. Jimmy Butler
still has twenty two points, whichis a little scary because you're sort of
waiting for him to erupt. Hegot off to a really hot start,
a little bit quieter in the secondand third quarters, but obviously we know
what he is capable of. Theturnovers are a growing concern, if you
(02:37):
will. They have four this quarterafter only five in the opening half.
So there's a lot to dissect fromthis one, but also a whole lot
of time left in this game.In fact, if you were to take
a look at the betting right now, because obviously, as we remember Celtics,
you were getting no value betting Celticsin this game. It was minus
like three to seventy or something crazyto get Celtics just on the money line
(03:00):
going into this game. In fact, yeah, closed right around three sixty
five, three seventy somewhere. Thatdepends which put through we're looking at right
now. With the Celtics down bysix, you can get the CS on
the money line if you believe theyare going to come back, and this
is not this insurmountable. They're downby six with a quarter and change to
go minus one twenty five, practicallyeven money if you want them on the
spread one minus one fifteen one twentyfive depending on where you look. But
(03:23):
it's only a point and a halfas opposed to the eight and a half
coming into the game. So interms of live betting, there are some
things to think about. But theCeltics are certainly not having an easy night
as compared to what the Red Soxare doing and out away from closing out
the Mariners, just thumping them atFenway Park up nine nothing after two winnings
(03:46):
and cruising from there. So onceagain, the over hit the over hit
folks. That's a Chiching chi chingfor you if you played the Red Sox
over because they do it each andevery game. It feels like, there
you go. Thank you. EJ. Pacheco, our producer, Socks are
on the cusp of improving or goingback to four games over five hundred looking
for the Yankees for the sake ofthe people's parlay and some straight bets for
(04:09):
that batter in Toronto. It's scorelessin the tenth inning, looking for the
Yankees to get a run across.They got a couple of men in scoring
position with two down, so hopefullythey can do that. Not that I
like rooting for the Yankees, butagain, you know, money over mind
if you will, and I wouldlike to enhance my bank roll, and
if that means rooting for the Yankeesfor a singular night, I can do
(04:30):
it. I'm sorry. So,like I said, or if I haven't
Adam Kaufman with you, it's TheGambler with Adam Coffman. We got a
big, fun show coming up.Normally we would do basketball during the first
hour in light of what is goingon, but because this game properly isn't
going to end until somewhere between Idon't know, eleven fifteen, eleven twenty,
somewhere in that range, we're goingto push off our basketball main focus
(04:55):
until our number two of this show. We will be joined for the first
time on the show by Mike Randall, the chief content officer over at FTN
Network. Looking forward to chatting NBAplayoffs with him, most especially this game.
But we'll take a look at Gametwo in the West as well between
the Nuggets and Lakers in the lateron this hour. In fact, in
about ten minutes, our good buddyJason Sobel from the Action Network will join
(05:17):
us to continue our coverage our previewof the PGA Championship in Rochester, where
he is, by the way,toughing out the conditions. Yeah, the
way it begins tomorrow morning, thatis, Dan Watkins. Dan, what
have you thought of what we've seenso far here in this one? Well,
I pretty much had to like crumpleup all my notes from the first
half and throw them out because thethird quarter is the Celtics have just not
(05:39):
well. I'll put it this way, Miami showed up Miami, and the
Miami showed up big time. Imean, Miami's outshooting the Celtics from three
point range right now, which Idid not expect, both in total three
pointers and in percentage wise. Miamiis ten three tonight. The Celts only
have eight. That is very surprising. And the Celtics aren't taking advantage of
the turnovers here in this one either. They've They've gotten quite a few giveaways
(06:01):
by Miami in this one. I'mlooking at it right now. Total turnovers
Miami's turned the ball over twelve timesand the Celtics only have sixteen points from
that compared to the Celts have nineturnovers. Miami is twenty two points off
of turnovers tonight, and the Celticshave gotten a little sloppy at some points.
We've seen a lot of Peyton Pritchardin this one, more so than
I was expecting. We saw PeytonPritchard in the first quarter, which I
(06:23):
definitely He's only at six minutes forthe night, but I guess, you
know, relative that's more than we'reexpecting. I was expecting to be at
zero. Yeah, coming into thisgame, I think he had only played
like thirty ish total minutes in theplayoffs, right, So yeah, I
was very surprised when he checked inand he is he kind of again,
he has played six minutes, butit was that stint and then he promptly
checked out. We haven't seen himsince Joe Massoul's back to going seven deep
(06:45):
right now. Pritchard's in the gamenow, so yeah, it's which a
little weird. So anyways, andthen the other thing, as good as
the Celtics were to close out thefirst half, that's kind of how bad
they've been to start the third quarterhere in Miami's everything we've heard about the
Heat culture, it's legit. Theyare a very fundamentally sound basketball team.
They're also just a team. Notto be cliche, but I think there
(07:08):
are some teams that get to acertain point and they get in their heads,
whether that is you know, sothey sort of cite themselves out a
little bit, or they're worried aboutthe environment of the competition or whatever it
may be. The Miami Heat andJimmy Butler especially, and he is the
head of the snake when it comesto the people on the floor. And
obviously Eric Spoelstra is one of,if not the best coach in the NBA.
And we all know pat Riley leadingup that front office as he has
(07:30):
for a couple decades at this point. But this is a team that is
just not scared, not scared ofthe moment, not scared of Boston,
not scared of the opportunity. Hashad multiple playoff, deep round playoff battles
with the Celtics in recent years.You know, in the Bubble Eastern Conference
Finals, they went to the NBAFinals, beat the Seas. Last year
Eastern Conference Finals certainly could have beatenBoston. Selts prevailed in seven games,
(07:55):
went off to the NBA Finals.We remember what happened there. So this
is a Heat team that came innot to this series, well actually from
a betting perspective, very much intothe series, but into the playoffs in
general, came in undervalued, underrated, underappreciated. And here they are,
third quarter, seizing the moment.I mean, north of forty points in
(08:16):
this quarter by the Miami Heat.I don't know what the hell is going
on with Boston's defense as compared towhat we saw on that opening half.
Yeah, and it's been a littleweird because Rob Williams has kind of been
the weak link of the defense inthis one. I mean, if you
just go by plus minus, he'sminus eighteen. Nobody else on the team
is more than is worse than aminus five. Miami's figured out how to
kind of stretch him out and attackhim there. And yeah, Miami getting
(08:37):
they've gotten what twenty one points fromKyle Lowry and Kevin Love in this one,
when you've only gotten nineteen from MalcolmBrogden and Derek White not something that's
not a good recipe for success.No, obviously, and we're not there
and I don't have the TV turnedup, so I can't really tell in
terms of crowd noise or whatever.But Celtics are gonna have to find a
(08:58):
way. If the crowd is issilent in any way, shape or form,
They're gonna have to wake him up. Gonna have to wake him up,
because this is a team, forbetter or worse, that really feeds
off the crowd. And this isvery much as the heat just proved in
a plus twenty third quarter, twentyfive quarters to go up by eleven points.
This is this is a game thatis far from over. Celtics are
(09:22):
very capable of going on a run. They can go on an eight nothing
run in thirty seconds with multiple threepointers, a couple of stops, and
obviously a lay up, a dunk, whatever. You know. It's just
I'm a little surprised. I kindof this came in general, and I'm
I'm an over guy. I absolutelythought we talked about it last night.
I absolutely thought the total was toolow. But that's about to smash very
(09:46):
quickly. Yeah, it's gonna yeah, it's gonna smash like four minutes into
the fourth quarter, maybe even earlierthan that. They're one nine. They
only need sixteen points, all right, two ten and a half to eleven,
you know, depending on when yougot it. But I was just
looking to see if the live lineis updated. It hasn't got right now.
The Celtics are getting six and ahalf points right now, and the
(10:07):
Celtics live money line is plus twoforty five plus two forty five. So
if you believe Boston is going tocome back and win this game, forget
the spread, if you will.Unless you just think they're you know,
even if they you get them atplus six and a half or whatever,
and you think maybe they'll lose,but lose a close one, than sure
you could put money on that.But if you're looking for value obviously at
(10:28):
plus two whatever, depending on whereyou look or when you look, then
by all means do it if you'vegot the faith in Boston to come back.
We knew there was going to bea game like this. I right
before the game started, right beforethe series started, I mean literally a
couple of minutes before, because Ididn't want to get burned again on betting
the series spread as I was burnedby a game against the Hawks, burned
(10:54):
by a game against the Sixers.I didn't want to do it against the
Heat, but I did sprinkle justa little bit on a correct score,
which is the Celtics winning in six, because I just fully expect, no
matter how much better we all sayor believed the Seas are than the Heat,
I fully expect Miami to take acouple of games. I would like
them to not take game one verymuch. We're looking at the same script
(11:16):
as last year right now. Miamikind of comes in, punches you in
the mouth in game one and wegot to go from there. But this
was we were supposed to see themature, grown up Celtics tonight, right
were They were supposed to have takenthat step and winning game six in Game
seven against the Sixers, and thiswas supposed to be Okay, it's your
time, you're here, you're grownup. But nope, the Celtics kind
of came out flat in the thirdquarter in Miami has taken this game by
(11:39):
the throat and running with it.Celtics allowed the Heat to go eighteen of
twenty six from the field in thethird quarter. Again, I wasn't fully
locked into it because I'm sitting hereand we're talking, but Miami shooting fifty
four percent from three point range inthis one thirteen to twenty four, the
Celtics eight of twenty one. JoeMissoula probably not too happy about that right
(12:01):
now. More to talk about withthis one. We will monitor it,
We're not going to ignore it.We'll give you periodic updates. But our
focus is going to shift to tomorrow'sPGA Championship. We're back to major land
in terms of the golf world,and obviously some live guys there. Dustin
Johnson had a crack earlier today.If you missed it, we'll play that
for you. On the other side, Jason Sobel there from the Golf House
(12:24):
is going to join us, comingup in just a matter of minutes.
Watkins is here, EJ's here,I am here. It is The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman on w RKO.Sick and tired of old sports talk and
want to get right into the action. The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. As
you covered, call us now withsix one seven two six six six eight
(12:45):
six eight. That's six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman will beright back after this is on WRKO.
We're should do You're back all themower back swinging a club or lifting up
a kid. Yeah, letting offa kid, just a bigger kid.
(13:13):
Microphone five. I'm done. Allhail Dustin Johnson. Oh, no one
in the world is having as muchfun as Dustin Johnson. Let me tell
you. Jason Sobel from the ActionNetwork back with us is Adam Coffman.
The Gambler with Adam Coffman. DanWatkins is here as well. Were you
in the room when DJ was talkingabout his sex life. I was not.
(13:35):
I was actually walking to the golfcourse at that point. But yeah,
interesting from DJ. Do we worryabout his back? I mean for
people that are thinking about you know, Bet and Dustin Johnson in this one,
He's fine. Bet, Dustin Johnson. I like DJ a lot.
This week. He's coming off ofway and remember Brooks kept going one right
before the Masters that he fished insecond of the Masters could be a very
(13:58):
similar outcome fort DJ this week.So we had Jeff all Rich, you
know, Jeff on with us lastnight. We were talking about, you
know, just some of his favoriteoutrights, and obviously we were talking about
the favorites in general, and atthat time, yeah, Cheffler and Ram
is co favorites plus seven fifty andRom is now plus eight fifty. So
(14:18):
talk why the movement. I don'tknow, because Ram is getting more of
the percentage of handel and tickets rightnow, so I don't understand how Rom's
gotten longer and Scotty's basically stayed wherehe is. Quite frankly, I did
a ranking of the top twenty fivein the field. I have Rom a
little bit higher, a couple ofspaces higher than Cheffler. I think Rom's
(14:41):
fifth on my list and Cheffler's eighthor whatever. But if I had waited
until now to do the ranking,I would probably have that reverse that.
Scotty, from all reports, wasstriping it today on the golf course.
He's playing really well. I interviewedhim yesterday one on one, and Scotty
said, as opposed to most ofthe player, most of the players are
like, man, it's really hard. There's gonna play more like a US
(15:03):
Open, the PJA Championship. Oh, it's gonna be difficult. Scotty says
to me, Man, this isso much fun. It's like a really
cool challenge. I really enjoy this. I love that mindset, I love
the attitude. I really like Scotti. This week, Was it Jason Day?
A lot of people are excited aboutJason Day going into this tournament.
Was it him? All the tweetswere going around earlier basically saying, you
know, it wasn't doing a practiceround, hadn't even checked out the course.
(15:26):
You know it had had the attitudelike he was just getting ready to
go out for a guy's weekend withhis buddies, not playing a major golf
tournament. Yeah, if his buddiesare four kids in the wife and a
few nannies hanging out with him thisweek, then Jason Day is having a
buddy's trip. But now, look, Jason is He's wiped after last week
he hadn't wanted over five years,and he finally gets that elusive thirteenth victory
(15:50):
that he'd been waiting for. He'dbeen trending in the right direction. He's
just a little wiped out from lastweek. This wasn't a major championship this
week. I have a feeling thatJason he wouldn't even be playing right now.
But he's here because it's a major, and because you know you have
to go out and play well.But I will put I will say this
(16:10):
much. I talked to Jason todayas well. I don't get a sense
that Jason is quite ready to playhis best golf right after winning last week.
And it's funny because I asked himabout this, and I'm sure he
doesn't remember it, but years ago, and this is based on what Tiger
has said for twenty five years,and all the world's best players have glommed
onto this o over time, whichis I want my game to peak four
(16:33):
times a year. And years agoI asked Jason, well, how do
you get your game to peak ata certain time? And I remember the
time He's kind of threw his armsup there and short, I don't know.
He's like, it's not like I'mnot gonna play well the week before
I'm made. Jersey's like, I'mjust trying to play as good as I
can every single time. And Iasked him, how do you get a
game to peak again one week afterit peaked last week? He's he said,
(16:57):
I'm not shrug again because I don'thave an answer to that. I
don't know how I can go outand play my best golf again this week,
but I don't know. Maybe ithappens without playing a practice round,
but that doesn't seem like a greatway to go about getting into this first
round here at Okill, which iscompletely different from twenty thirteen, and he
was in contention in twenty thirteen andhe doesn't remember anything about it. Jason
(17:19):
Willey, have you for about threemore minutes? Who are some of your
favorite outrights to bet this week?I am on Sunjaym, which is based
on a trend that we've seen onthe PGA Tour over the last few weeks,
which we've seen Tony Fen Now he'sbeen playing great golf, hadn't had
that real spike week where he playshis best golf, had it the Mexico
(17:40):
Open he won. Wyndham Clark wasplaying great golf, hadn't really had that
spike week, won at the WellsFargo Championship. Same thing with Day last
week. Sunjaym three straight top tenson the DJA Tour. Went to Korea
last week for some weird reason,but one over there. He's a guy
that I'm ready for. I'm readyfor him to day the next step.
I like him a lot. I'llalso have that writes on Xander Shafley,
(18:03):
who admittedly is kind of short atsixteen to one, but he's ready to
go win one of these big ones. Max Homa, I spoke with yesterday,
very confident on this golf course tDe Green. He's playing very well.
Reminds a little bit in a weirdway of TVC Potomac at Abdel Farms
where he won the Wells Fargo Championshiplast year. And so I think Max
(18:25):
is a nice play And then ifyou want to take some long shot plays,
I wouldn't go too far off theradar. But Keegan Bradley, who's
played a lot of golf in theNortheast, I think he's a guy that
at ninety to one one hundred toone will be pretty good. And Gary
Woodlands played some good golf. He'sninety to one as well. I wouldn't
go too much past that, thoughin our last couple of minutes, I'll
leave it to you whether it's favoriteat tourney matchups or finishing positions, whatever.
(18:52):
Some of your favorite bets are ingeneral going into the PGA Championship.
Yeah, some of the same guys. So Maxhoma is a guy that I'll
hit for our top ten along withCameron Young. Cameron Young not quite a
home game. He grew up aboutfive hours away from here, so we
can't call it a home game.But this definitely OK Hill has some characteristics
of the courses that Cameron Young playedgrowing up in the New York area,
(19:15):
and so I think he'll be alittle bit at home. It's not a
home game. I like him fora top ten. He's in top ten
at three and last four major championships, and this one should work for him
as well. And again I'll goback to Homa. Look, matchups are
always tough when I'm asked about himon the radio, because every book has
different matchups. And so I havebeen an advocate for a long time of
(19:36):
why can't we bet any player againstany other player? Give us a line
on it, and I would loveto see that at some point in golf
betting. I think the marketplace itselfhas to get bit before we find all
those algorithms out there. But MaxHoma in some books is listed at one
twenty against Sam Bourns. I knowMax hasn't played his best golf at major
(19:56):
championships yet neither as Sam Burns andSam Burn plays his best golf in the
southeastern part of the country up withUtah Greens. This doesn't seem a place
where he would play his best.I like back home is a little bit
of a favorite in that matchup thisweek, Jason. Unfortunately, we're out
of time. I'd love to talkto you more, but we have to
send you back into the depths ofdespair that is Rochester, New York.
(20:18):
Oh boy, I gotta go backhere, all right. Well, in
that case, I'll say ghost CelticsGame two. We'll get him. Thanks
buddy, We'll talk to you againin the weeks to come, for sure.
Jason Spa from the Action Network,appreciate it. Welcome back to the
Gambler with Adam Kaufman's Celtics of courselost tonight, pummeled in the third quarter
(20:41):
by Miami, Game one of theEast Finals. Ultimately, because as Joe
Missoula will tell you, they wonthree quarters. They won the first,
they won the second, they wonthe fourth, but they still lost the
game by seven points. Jason Tatumthirty, Jaylen Brown pretty efficient two,
but too many turnovers between the twoof them, a total of ten.
(21:03):
As we were talking about a littlebit earlier in the Celtics. You know,
three point shooting a big difference inthis one. Selts ten out of
twenty nine as compared to sixteen forthirty one from Miami. Thirty five points
for Jimmy Butler in this game.Six steals. I don't even know if
it's possible to bet six plus steals, and I've never looked. You know,
usually with Bucker, I'm pretty comfortablebet in two plus. You know,
(21:26):
especially with the way that he's beengoing six What in the world would
the number have been with six plussteals? Bam at a bio like I
said, Oh, reliable, he'salways going to get you fifteen and eight.
Parlay that or put it into yourparlays. He's always going to get
you fifteen and eight plus. Hewent twenty and eight tonight plus five assists.
And then you had good production fromthe likes of Vincent and Strew Streuss,
(21:48):
who started off you know, heinto anything for a while. It
took forever for him to even takea shot, and he goes six out
of ten for fifteen points in aplus fifteen in this game, which was
second only to Bam. You hadfifteen off the bench for Martin, fifteen
for Lowry. Just a good resurgentperformance out of the heat tonight. You
have to respect it. You know, stinks obviously, but but you have
(22:12):
to respect it. And as wewere just talking about, Celtics are now
nine point favorites in Game two Fridaynight, which is what about forty five
hours away from now. We willnot be on that night, so we
will all be enjoying it in ourown way. I may have to wash
(22:33):
the good lucture that I've been rockingthe last few games. Comfortable favorites on
the money line minus four twenty,I want to check out, and we're
gonna be joined by Mike Randall.Momentarily, I want to look at East
Finals and what has happened here.So the Celtics are still minus two twenty
to win the series, which isobviously a considerably better number than what it
(22:56):
was. Tatum is pretty close toeven money for conference miles, MVP total
games. If you were looking,if you believe, as I bet prior
that Boston's going to win this seriesfour two, you know that there were
going to be a couple of gamesthe heat we're gonna steal. I wasn't
banking on game one. But herewe are plus three eighty plus three eighty
(23:18):
as compared to if you think theseries is going to go seven plus two
thirty with Boston winning. It isstill very long odds for the Heat to
win this series. Although although Iwill say plus four forty for the Heat
to take it in six as opposedto the Celtics to take it in six,
that is pretty close. So there'svalue. There's certainly value. You
(23:41):
know, you could argue on eitherside. If you're not if you don't
have conviction as to who is goingto win, you just want to talk
total games. Well that's locked rightnow, so I can't give you those
numbers. That's that's all. Stillupdating series spread still Celtics minus one and
a half, although you can getthat at one forty eight, so plus
money on that. So some differentthings obviously to consider. Let's bring in
(24:04):
Mike Randall, chief content officer atFTN Network. First time on this show
for Mike, and from what Iunderstand, a Boston college grad as well,
so keeping it local. Mike,how are you man? Hey?
Great? Thanks for having me onWhat a night A crazy game? Yeah,
if crazy is synonymous with crappy then, sure, yeah, yeah it
(24:26):
was for us, everything seemed looksfine. They're just crazy what went on
here tonight really concerning Sure, wegot a lot to talk about. Thanks
for having me, yeah, ofcourse, and thanks for being here obviously.
So what are your impressions coming outof this one in terms of how
it would make you bet the nextnext game of the series on Friday?
I realize, you know, informationsevolving and lines are going to move,
(24:48):
and you know we don't have allthe prop information and all that stuff,
but just you know, general outlookor get as specific as you want,
you know, independent of having numbersto rely on based on what you saw
in game one? What are youon do you think in game two?
Yeah? I think with Boston you'recautiously optimistic here because they've shown the ability
to bounce back against adversity throughout theentire playoffs. But my major concern is
(25:11):
there's so many questions that have comeout of this game. They have to
play with a lot more cohesion.How do they lose this game? When
Marcus Smart has double digit assists inthe first half, I mean, everything
seemed to be facilitating, but theonly problem is When this Celtics team gets
down, they tend to revert tothe one on one basketball. So I
would still be on Boston. Iexpect them to bounce back. They did
(25:34):
so against Philadelphia. We saw themin the playoffs do that. But I
would be cautiously optimistic because this isa critical game. Tatum always steps up
in those spots. Brown has donehistorically well that his points per game against
Miami, but this was a concerningone, especially the way it was at
the half. There's no value,Mike, obviously in betting Boston in the
money line, I'm seeing it atminus four twenty. So would you have
(25:56):
the guts quite frankly, after whatwe just sought to bet Boston with the
points at minus nine, would youmaybe try and get creative and have Boston
be like a you know, acombo first half, full time win or
something like that that you could geta more favorable number on. What do
you think of the play is here? Well, you know, the situation
is that when you bet the team, rarely does the point spread come into
(26:19):
play. So I am going tobe on Boston and I'm gonna lay the
nine points, and I know that'shard to envision but this is a situation
where they're gonna have to win.You've seen them have big wins before.
You saw them destroy Philadelphia in Gameseven. You saw them go down to
Philadelphia in Game three and win bytwelve points. So if I like Boston,
I'm laying the points tonight. Ireally took the eight and a half
(26:42):
with the heat because I thought theywould keep it close and could steal it.
And you know that historically Game oneis the game you can steal on
the road. But I expect thisteam to bounce back. And again,
this is still a Miami team thatis undermanned for two games in a row.
To have six guys in double figures, that's asking a lot here.
I expect the Celtics to bounce bigin Game two. What surprises me a
(27:02):
little bit in this one is youknow, everybody, I mean everybody was
on It was like a favorite betof the night for a lot of people.
Joe Delaire was with us last night. He was all over this.
I played it all over the place. Jason Tatum over four and a half
assist. It just sort of feltlike one of those all reliable type of
plays. He only has one assistin this game, not just that.
(27:26):
You know, we usually feel likein a game like this we can bank
on let's say three plus three pointersout of Tatum. He only took three
attempts and went one of three.What do you what did you observe in
terms of what went wrong or justwhat credit you give to Spolstra and Miami's
(27:47):
defense for the way they played him. Yeah, we saw it tonight.
You know, Spolstra is one ofthe top coaches in the league, and
Joe Mazilla is still the youngest coachin the FBA right now. So I
think what you saw was a gameplay and you're gonna have to see schemes
here. So Missoula's got to comeback with something that he has to make
an adjustment on. You know,Robert Williams dominating, I'm sure you talked
about fourteen point seven rebounds, washaving trouble with Bam, but for him
(28:11):
to not play for the majority ofthe fourth quarter very questionable. The key
is they have to decide what theywant to take away. Max Strus was
invisible in the first half. Bostondid a great job on him. All
of a sudden, he gets onfire in the third quarter, So I
expect them to find a way tocontinue to limit Bam. They have to
come off of Butler. They haveto get out and run, and they
(28:33):
have to show more on their offense. Brogden and Smart. When they run
this offense, that's when they're attheir best. People cutting to the best,
gets Smart, hitting Williams for theallee. That's what it has to
happen. Yes, Tatum and Brownare the best scores. We get that,
but you can't do against Miami andEric Spoelster and this defense and the
momentum they have. You cannot justclear out and let them go one on
(28:56):
one. You know, Butler's shotscame late in the fourth quarter that were
created by other players. Even BAM'schucked a half court were almost stepped out
of the bounds. That was apass out. What happened with the Celtics
in this game is when they getin trouble, they look for Brown or
Tatum to go one on one andbail them out. I think the seat
team is way too good defensively tolet that happen. They are going to
(29:17):
guard you on the three point line. They did it tonight. Boston only
ten of twenty nine from three pointrange tonight. On the other hand,
in Miami, sixteen of thirty oneprops obviously aren't out yet for game two.
But the lines for these things,you know, the numbers obviously,
the minus whatever plus whatever, like, well, we'll see what that is.
But in terms of totals, likewe know Tatum's going to be around,
(29:38):
you know, twenty eight, twentynine and a half points and so
like, numbers generally at this pointare are fairly predictable. So that in
mind, are there any props thatyou envision you will be on for game
two again after you know, usinggame one is a small sample. Absolutely,
If I believe in the Celtics,I always like to tether the props
to the result. If I believeeven the Celtics, and I believe in
(30:00):
Marcus Smart. Marcus Smart's point,rebounds and assist numbers have been phenomenal twenty
five, twenty three, forty five, twenty seven, hitting them across the
board. He has hit his overwith his points, rebounds assists sixty four
percent of the time against Miami thisyear. Tonight he puts in thirty,
of course and has the big game. So I would be looking to tether
(30:22):
my props here to the players thatI expect to do well. I got
Marcus Smart to lead this series andassist at plus two forty. On Draft
Kings, Jimmy Butler was the overwhelmingfavorite. I did not see that happening
here, So I think that Smartis the key. I'm going to be
all over his props as well.And I also like Jalen Brown because Jalen
Brown last thirteen games, he hasfaced the heat twenty eight or more points
(30:45):
five times, and he had twoover thirty six before tonight. So I
think there could be a big JalenBrown performance as well. I'd be looking
at his over and Marcus smarts overbecause I expect the Celtics to bounce back
in Game two. So, Mike, we do a thing on the show
here called the People's Parlay. We'regonna do this in the next segment.
You're going to be part of it. The way this works is I will
pick a leg. Dan Watkins,who you haven't heard from yet, will
(31:07):
pick a leg, and you,the guest of the program, will pick
a leg. And the only commitment, I don't care what book you use,
I don't care how much you wagercould be a dollar could be a
one hundred dollars. That is yourbusiness. But you are required to play
the parley with us so that wecan all you know, from our respective
homes, sweat this thing tomorrow nighttogether in a matter of speaking. So
during the break, that is youropportunity to do a little bit of homework,
(31:30):
pick your leg whatever it is,and we will do that. On
the other side, we will alsolook ahead to Game two, which is
tomorrow night between the Lakers and Nuggets. Mike Randall with us from FTN Network,
Chief content officer. Over there,we'll be back on The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman. Sick and tired ofbold sports talk and want to get right
into the action. The Gambler withAdam Kaufman, has you covered? Call
(31:53):
us now with six one seven twosix six six eight six eight. That's
six one two six six six eightsix eight. The Gambler with Adam Koffman
will be right back after this ison WRKO. Mike Randalls with us,
chief content officer at FTN Network.Just previously, prior to the break,
(32:15):
went over the rules of the People'sparlay, which we will build at the
end of the segment. You're goodwith it, Mike, You're ready.
I'm ready to go absolutely awesome,can't wait. We will do that in
a little bit, but first letus look ahead to Game two, not
of the Celtics series. We didthat and I don't want to talk anymore
about them right now. It willonly make me upset Game two between the
(32:37):
Nuggets and Lakers after just a quitea showing by Denver, nearly a blowout,
should have been a blowout, gotclose. La put up a fight
in that opener. Obviously in DenverGame two US tomorrow night five and a
half point favorites. I'm seeing Denverat right now inflated total as expected after
what we saw in Game one,the points of two twenty six and a
half. What are your expectations forGame two from a perspective, and is
(33:00):
Yokis just going to go out andabuse the over of every prop again?
Well, I expect them to makesome adjustments. You know, Rory Hashimura
did a tremendous job in the fourthquarter defending Yokich. They're gonna make some
changes here on Denver now. Ialso think that I don't think Denver shooting
fifteen to thirty two from three pointrange forty six point nine percent, so
(33:22):
I expect them to have a lowerscoring game, a slower paced game.
Those concerns coming the series that thealtitude was going to bother the Lakers.
I think this one's gonna be muchmore lower scoring. I think it's going
to be a close game, andI expected to make some adjustments here on
Yokich. The player I'm worried aboutif I'm the Lakers is Michael Porter Junior.
Ten rebounds, fifteen points. Wehad that on our model. We
(33:43):
love Michael Porter Junior in the series, so I think they're gonna try to
limit Murray. I think they're gonnatry to go slower with Yokich, and
I expect a closer, low scoringgame here for the Lakers. Any favorite
props? Yeah, right off thebat, I like Hashimura, who's beaten
his fifteen and a half points,rebounds, and assists in the two games
against Denver. I expect him todo it again. They're gonna have to
(34:05):
guard him. He's gonna have tocome in and give them big minutes.
He at twenty eight minutes off thebench. De'angel Russell did not do much
here, so Hashimore could see thirtypoints. The other one I like is
let's go under with Jamal Murray.I know he was unconscious and had a
fantastic game, but he got offto a great start as only beaten his
prop here points, rebounds and assiststwenty nine and a half. That's awfully
low, right for a player thatat thirty one points by himself. I'm
(34:28):
going under on that one because he'sgone under against the Lakers sixty percent of
the time last year and a half. I'm surprised looking at some of the
models that I track and pay attentionto this stuff that it is encouraging and
I don't think I'll do it.I just don't like the bet, but
it is encouraging a contavious Caldwell popeunder pra a. And it's only said
at fifteen and a half. Imean he had six more points than that
(34:52):
in game one, let alone theother categories. Yeah, certainly got his
revenge game right. That revenge gamenarrow always going to be something that's interesting.
He got hot there from three andhe was part of the reason they
were scalding. But if you lookat him, it's ten point five points,
which is interesting. Here he's goneunder this one in sixty percent of
the last ten. He's gone underin sixty percent of his last five yere
(35:13):
so yeah, and under across theboard here for contavious call ball pup,
I like to fade the big game. I'm with you. Twenty one point
three abay from three point range again, tether the props to the game.
I think it's going to be lowerscoring. I don't mind any unders here
that you're looking at. It wasa little frustrating when Denver was up by
twenty points and it ended up beinga push in terms of the spread.
(35:34):
Is Denver going to cover this time? I like the Lakers and the points,
so, like I said earlier,I'm going to take them, and
I would take them to win itoutright. I think this is going to
be a longer series. I thinkthere's gonna be some adjustments here. Was
disturbed against Phoenix when Michael Malone justsimply could not stop Durant and Booker in
those two games three and four.I think the key is you have to
(35:55):
realize that Lebron James in this game, he likes to distribute, he likes
to get everyone involved. Listen,Lebron, there's sometimes you have to take
matters into your own hands. Ithink he has to have a big scoring
game and a big impact him andAnthony Davis. This does not seem to
be the series. Or we're gonnatwenty one points here from Russell and a
lot of points and Hilary. He'sgot to put in a thirty point game,
(36:16):
and if he does that, Ithink the Lakers can steal game two.
Yeah. So I was just gonnasay, like Davis wasn't just a
monster, he was a monstar.To give the space jam theme in game
one, he was incredible. Iwas surprised. Lebron and we talked about
this a little bit last night.It's not like it's out of character game
one a playoff series, he tendsto be a little bit more, not
(36:37):
passive necessarily, but sort of.It's always a feelout game for him,
and that certainly was the case againstDenver. He has to be more aggressive
in this one, right, Yeah, he does. He's been under his
points prop seventy percent of the timein the playoffs last three games, though
against Denver twenty six, thirty andtwenty six. It's hovering right now,
we're on twenty five and a half. I think he recognizes that. I
(36:59):
think he's going to give them amonster performance. We could use not to
bring back bad memories here, wecould use a performance where he had against
Boston years ago in the playoffs.In the first half. If he doesn't
want to go down two oh,he's got to put about eighteen twenty points
up in the first half and thenhe can facilitate. It's almost like he
has to be backwards in the past. For the last few series, he's
gotten everyone else involved. Austin reeveseveryone going and he scored late. Now
(37:22):
I think it has to be theopposite. He has to set the tone
here, especially on the road againstDenver high scoring team, and they're gonna
have to play together and then hecan get them going late like Dennis Shrewder
players like that. All right,we've got you for a couple more minutes.
Let's do the people's part lay foranyone that missed it. Dan will
offer a leg, Mike here willoffer a leg. I will offer a
leg. We will build it together, we will play it together. Use
(37:42):
whichever book you want, wag orwhatever you want, but we will get
the sweat going together, which isalways fun. And you being the guest
Mike, start us off. Whatdo you like tomorrow? All right,
So Tomorrow night for Lakers and Denver. The first one I'm going with exactly
what I talked about. Lebron onover on his points. It's twenty five
and a half, it's minus onetwenty right now, we'll go at draft
(38:06):
Kings. He's been over this numberfifty nine percent of the time this year.
He's been over in three of thelast five, and he's been over
at like I said, sixty percentof the time against Denver. This is
a play that I do not thinkDenver's defense is that impressive. I don't
think if he's in attack mode,they're going to be able to do much.
Certainly going to be worried about Davisinside. So we'll kick it off.
Big players in big games, guys, Lebron James over twenty five and
(38:29):
a half points. All right,I'm getting that pretty close to even money,
which is nice. Dan. Whatdo you have tomorrow? Yeah,
So I'm gonna go baseball. Nota big slate tomorrow, but we do
have the Dodgers and Cardinals going atit, and I'm gonna go over eight
and a half runs in that game. It's Wulio Urius First, Adam Wayne
Right Waynewright has not been great sincehe's camp come back this season. He's
(38:50):
given up at least four runs andeach of his two starts. The Dodgers
could get close to this eight anda half by themselves. They have some
great career numbers and career splits againstWaynewright. So give me the over in
that game, all right, guys, And I'm gonna bring this one home
with and over as well, exceptI'm gonna go to hockey. I've been
wanting to play this for a coupleof days, and tomorrow's the night I
get to do it. Panthers andHurricanes to open up the East Conference Finals.
(39:13):
I'm gonna go over five and ahalf goals for us. A good
chunk of the betting community is alreadyon that bet as well. I know
that we had Jeff Ulrich on lastnight, as if I remember correctly,
he didn't really like the play.You know, he wanted the under.
Yeah, he was tending to trendunders, especially with you know, the
white Carolina plays at home and allthat. But I just think we've we've
(39:34):
seen some explosive offensive play from bothof these teams. And it's not a
lot to ask for six goals ina game with the way they have been
playing. So you put those together, over five and a half total goals
between the Panthers and Hurricanes, overtwenty five and a half points Lebron James
between the Lakers and Nuggets, obviously, and over eight and a half or
depending where you're looking, nine totalruns between the Dodgers and Cardinals. That
(39:59):
brings me, guys to almost plussix hundred. So that is a nice
parlay for tomorrow that we get tosweat together. Very nice. Can't wait.
This is great, all right,I'm looking forward to it. Mike,
Thanks so much for hopping on withus. We will definitely do it
again as the playoffs roll on.And I'm sure you are, you know,
based on your Twitter and your work, I'm sure you're a big football
(40:21):
guys will get you during football seasonas well. Oh, can't wait,
guys, Paul, let's get ourpopcorn ready for game two. Thanks for
having me, all right, MikeRandal, chief content officer over at FTN
Network. So all right, youknow, place the bets. I'm gonna
do it. I'm gonna officially actuallyplace it during the break maybe you out
there listening as well. If youwant to sneak in a call during our
(40:42):
final segment, you're welcome. Sixone seven two six six six eight six
eight. That is six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.
And it's about time to put thisshow to bed. It goes buying a
blank, doesn't it. We'll beright back. It's time to put this
show to bed. With pillow makesit tired listening to other people yawned,
(41:07):
doesn't it, even if it's arecording Watkins? Yeah, maybe a little
bit. Yeah, you're like,yeah, man, sure, except I'm
not done with my work yet,right, can't be tired, nonsense.
I got a whole bunch of postgamessound to go through. Really looking forward
to it. It's gonna be great. Yeah, all right, Well,
(41:27):
thanks to the folks at my pillow. It is time to put this show
to bed. Before I put myhead on a my pillow, and I
will, and I do, andI enjoy it thoroughly. Let's look ahead
to tomorrow. I know we didn'treally do any hockey talking this one,
but the East Conference Finals in theNHL, as I mentioned, gets underway
tomorrow. Panthers are the dogs.In Carolina. You know it's the betting
(41:49):
is fairly split, whether it's thehandle or the percentage of bets being placed
between these two teams. The goalline, which is plus one and a
half for Florida slightly favoring the Panthersin this game, I think it's,
you know, kind of crazy.We'll see what ends up happening. I
wouldn't take Carolina to win by multiplegoals in this one. I might bet
Carolina just to win. On themoney line, you can get a good
(42:12):
number on that. I'm seeing minusone forty. But the conviction is on
the over. That's where I'm at. And I do like the over in
the game on Friday between the Starsand Golden Nights as well. We can
talk more about that tomorrow. Asfar as basketball goes, obviously the big
game that we'll be following tomorrow night, and we'll have a I don't know
who yet, but we will havean NBA guest with us, maybe even
a baseball guests. We'll see howthe night chakes out and what the day
(42:35):
looks like. The I don't knowif I'll bet the over in that game.
Two twenty seven and a half pointsis is a big number. I
imagine I will bet Denver to notonly win, but to cover. I
like, Yeah, I like Denver. I like Denver a lot, and
I like the five and a halfpoints. I understand everything that Mike was
saying about, you know, expectingthe bounce back from la and expecting Lebron
(42:55):
to go off. And I'll havesome side bets, maybe some straight props
or something like that. But Iam drawn a little bit to Denver and
and just to look at major LeagueBaseball quickly and then we'll get dance thoughts
on everything. Um again, Ilike to sort of let things settle after
the evening, so I won't placebets tonight. I'll i'll, I'll do
(43:15):
it in the morning or throughout theday. I haven't looked to see when
first pitch is to sort of beginthe action. But uh, some games
that I am drawn to Orioles overthe Angels, probably on the money line,
very good, he's on the Raysin New York. I mean,
Mets are dead to me, soI in the show. Yeah, and
(43:36):
and pretty much even money there,pretty close to it off fashion tonight.
By the way, I know,I'll probably even take the raise on the
run line. Look for a bounceback out of them, and uh maybe
the maybe the under in the WhiteSox Guardians game, like the White Sox
with the run line as well,And uh but I probably the Yankees at
(43:59):
plus money on the money line.Those are some of the things that I'm
looking at at the moment. Buthow about you, Yeah, so I'll
start baseball here. That White Soxplay, I liked that a lot too.
Dylan Cease on the mound. Finally, in his last start, he
looked like the guy many people wereexpecting him to be this season. When
he didn't allow a run to Houston, a lot of people were thinking,
you know, he might be acy young play this year. But he
(44:20):
has been roughed up quite a bituntil this last starts, so maybe he's
got something going going against Cleveland tomorrow. I like Chicago a lot there than
that Orioles pick. I liked thattoo, as we mentioned. And then
my parlay pick, which was theDodgers over against the Cardinals. There.
I'll probably even take the Dodgers soloin that one too. I might even
do it go run line there.The one I wish more props were out.
(44:43):
Yeah, I don't know when likethe full slate of props come out,
but unfortunately it's never right in thiswindow when I would love to talk
about them. But Nolan Arronado hasgreat career in numbers against urus, so
I'll definitely be looking in on him. He did not Homer tonight, so
Homer streak ended at what was itfive? Five? Yeah? Five?
But Ronald still drove in runs.Yeah, I saw all the tweets about
his thousandth career RBI. Yeah,the RBI streak lives on and Ronald thea
(45:06):
coonan junior. He hit a homerun tonight. He's got four straight home
runs. The Braves are off tomorrowthough. That hockey game, I you
know, I'm tempted. I'm verytempted to just take the Panthers on the
money line. There's six and oneon the road. I know both of
our hockey guests this week we're verymuch against that. But I kind of
I'm I just have this feeling andthere's no I have no data or stats
(45:30):
or anything to back it up,but Florida just kind of has that that
feel to them where they're gonna makethis run and make this a really long
run and take this all the wayinto the Cup Finals. So I like
Florida tomorrow night to pull out agame one and kind of shot Carolina,
and Carolina is gonna see what theBruins and Toronto's dealt with the past two
rounds. And then in basketball,I agree with a lot of what Mike
(45:50):
said. I think tomorrow night's tonightthat we see Lebron show up in the
Lakers take that game. I'll definitelybe taking them plus five and a half.
It's gonna have to be aggressive Lebron. I mean, I don't know
how I feel about the ultimate outcome, but but we have to. I
agree with what he said, wehave to have a big game out of
Lebron James and I, yeah,our guy EJ is all about like there's
there's some Homerism there for EJ,even though he's an enemy's territory. But
(46:13):
yeah, I will be well,obviously, I just did take the over
on points as part of our parlay, but I'm sure I'll be playing that
straight as well, maybe even attackas pra A. I got to see
what the number is. I haven'tlooked. Um it's interesting. I saw,
you know, some of the metricsactually favor going under on his rebound
prop, which is nine and ahalf, and I get it, you
know, he typically is nine orbelow. But he went for a dozen
(46:36):
last game. And I just thinkhe's going to be aggressive. So I'm
I'm not so sure I'm gonna gonear that one that that might be a
stay away spot for me tonight ortomorrow night. Yeah, I just I
just have this feeling. I thinkla the way they looked in the second
half there, I think they gotsomething going and they got some good momentum
going into that game tomorrow night.So and then Yokis didn't have a point
(46:58):
in the fourth quarter last night.I didn't even realize that. Yeah,
well for a while, didn't haveto. Yeah, and then obviously it
you know, got tighten. Well, he didn't have a basket because he
made he made the one, hemade the one free throw made two though,
Yeah, joker, We'll imagine ifhe didn't hit that ridiculous three pointer,
right, yeah, right, LikeI thought of that driving home last
night. I'm like, we wouldn'teven gotten the push we didn't hit that
(47:20):
ridiculous three point show. All right, he's back at our good graces.
We love him again. Yeah,one thing that we are going to do
tomorrow tomorrow night. I'm looking forwardto this. We're gonna have our buddy
Chris Carney from Raynham Park Bass onwith us a look ahead of the Preakness
Stakes, which are taking place Saturday, of course over at Pimlico in Baltimore.
So we'll be able to do that. That'll be a good time.
(47:42):
It's it's fun to bet the ponies. Man, so get his take on
that. Although he didn't have madefor us last time, he hinted at
him, I think to place placea show. Yeah, I think place
or show. He didn't have himas an outright winner, but he said
he did like he liked him toat least be there at the end somewhere,
and he ended up being there.Yeah, so yeah, it's true.
He read it. So we willsee what ends up happening. What
(48:07):
his picks are. I know Iwas texting him earlier. I know he's
putting in his research. He's excitedto jump back on the show with us,
and like I said, we'll getsomeone on for NBA, MLB or
both. We'll see. Should bea good time and you know, try
and just digest all that happened inthe selfis game tonight and get more optimism
looking ahead to game two. Somake sure you find the podcast. It
(48:30):
comes out after the show, andof course I will tweet it out at
Adam M. Kaufman. You canget Dan on Twitter at Dan Watkins Radio.
We will post the show tomorrow.Get you set up in terms of
all your betting needs, stuff thatwe covered tonight to get you ready to
place your bets for tomorrow. Ifyou missed any of the show tonight,
but if you did, shame onyou. We're with you ten to midnight,
(48:51):
couple hour commitment each night. Hopefullyyou hang out with us. If
not, like I said, checkout the pot. It is available to
you wherever you get your podcasts,be at Apple or Spotify or Pandora,
you know you name it. iHeartMedia'swebsite. Obviously, we are all over
the place, rate, review,subscribe. We do greatly appreciate it and
we appreciate our guests. Of course, we had Mike Randall from FTN Network
(49:13):
earlier, Jason Sobel from Action Network. I got to play some golf bets
before I go to bed, sinceI do not envision being up when they
start. So we got that frostdelay, so it might not it might,
it might be pushed back. That'strue, said, Yeah, Hell
on Earth is what Sobel made Rochestersound like. Unfortunately that part may not
be part of the podcast in theinterest of time only, but not not
(49:35):
because he said anything egregious that wehave to cut. He was amazing.
He's always amazing, So hopefully we'llget him back on real soon as well.
As you know, we get moreand more bigger golf tournaments down the
line, but you can't get biggerin the major. Yeah, the us
olpings in in LA this year,so I think he'll like that one a
little better. Yeah, yeah,exactly that that'll be much friendlier for the
time zone. So all right,we're gonna get out of here. Thanks
(49:58):
to our producer e J. Peck, Thanks to our guests, Thanks to
Dan Watkins. This is The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman. I am Adam Kaufman.
We'll talk to you again tomorrow night, ten pm sharp. For the
best night sleep you've ever had,go to Mikepillow dot com and use the
code Gambler. You've been listening toThe Gambler with Adam Kaufman on six eighty
(50:20):
WRKO, Boston's first and only nightlysports betting show, airing live Monday through
Thursday nights from ten to midnight.
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Therapy Gecko
An unlicensed lizard psychologist travels the universe talking to strangers about absolutely nothing. TO CALL THE GECKO: follow me on https://www.twitch.tv/lyleforever to get a notification for when I am taking calls. I am usually live Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays but lately a lot of other times too. I am a gecko.