February 27, 2025 • 31 mins
February 27, 2025: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guest Jonathan Von Tobel (@mejvt) from VSiN. Time for Celtics-Cavaliers, Round 4. Is a bounce-back for Boston in store? How will the Knicks, Nuggets, and Timberwolves respond? Are the Thunder letting up for the stretch run? Von Tobel dives deep on Friday's slate in the Association.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly vetting.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling to animal.
How do you do that but being good at it?
Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Streaming live on the iHeartRadio app. Me a moment, Subscribe
to the podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Back to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
Third hour, Final hour of the week, Final hour of
February programming year on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. March
is almost here, Dan, can't wait? Can you feel it
in your bones?
Speaker 4 (00:40):
And not wait?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
We made a lot of money on this show in
March of last year. Let's hope we can do that again.
That was a lot of fun. Tell you what. Our
next guest, even though he's on with us to stock NBA,
was a part of that as well. He was coming
on during conference tournaments March Madness time as the rounds
progressed and giving us some of his favorite plays. He's
a big college hoops guy, just a hoops guy in general.
(01:03):
Hasn't been on with us in a bit either. We've
missed him. Jonathan von Tobel, a host a Vison Prime
Time of course, over at Vson and he is on
Twitter at me JVT. How you been John? Good?
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Guys, good, very excited. This is the best time of
year basketball. Obviously, college hoop takes center stage. I'm in
our College Hoop Challenge over at vas In, so you
know you're gonna be competitive during this time hopefully too.
So yes, very excited about the time you were in.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Right now, Well, let's focus in on the NBA at
this moment here, we still have a game in progress,
that is the Lakers just throttling the Timberwolves, nearing the
end of the opening quarter, up by fourteen points or so.
Just quickly on this one. Did you know I was
considering making the Lakers to cover an official show play
(01:52):
six six and a half points, but I just kind
of looked at it and said, I don't know, number
feels a little big. I think LA will win. I'd
money line parlayan, but feels a little big. And of
course you know Luca Lebron, all these guys, they're just
picking up right where they left off against Dallas, up
by now sixteen to close a one.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Yeah. Actually I have sim Wolves plus six and a
half here, so hopefully they can get back into this thing,
waiting to see if Anthony Edward's gonna play, so stanched
it up when he was out there, but not getting
much offensive support from a couple of guys in the
lineup McDaniels and Nazrita and shut out Goose Eggs to
this point. But we saw Minnesota come back and close
a game out on a sixteen and nothing last time
they were on the floor, So we'll count them out
(02:33):
down thirty three to seventeen. But do have a little
bit of Minnesota plus six and a half tonight.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
There you go, and it's just another one on tonight
before we moved to tomorrow. I guess a couple of things. One,
you had Warriors and Magic. I know these aren't teams
that necessarily people believe our title bound, but.
Speaker 4 (02:52):
You know it's getting hot though.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, they should both be in the postseason. I know
once Curry's there, in particular, it's hard to count him out.
Dude flirted with sixty point. He had a quiet forty
on the other side out of ban Cao. And meanwhile,
a matchup of teams that you know, we do have
a lot of respect for one more than the other.
Denver actually lost in Milwaukee despite that minutes limit for
Janni's consistent thirty two and while you had a Joker
(03:17):
triple leuble, you had the Jannis go for nearly twenty twenty.
You know, both these dudes showed out head to head.
What'd you make of that game?
Speaker 2 (03:26):
For Denver and Milwaukee. Look, I think for both of
these teams, it's going to be pretty interesting as we
enter the home stretch here for both of them because
they both have some clear flaws I think on defense,
and we saw a little bit of it for both teams.
I mean, for Milwaukee, you don't really have anybody to
trust along the perimeter that's going to guard any one
key guard. On the other end, the problem is for
Denver today and Murray was fine, but Murray's been very
(03:49):
inconsistent throughout this year. They don't really have anybody to
really test that against the Milwaukee Bucks. But that's what
I'm kind of looking for for both of these teams,
is what's your perimeter defense look like? Because it's been
very inconsistent and I think going to be a big
problem for them once they enter into the postseason, which
both of them should be there and like to your
overall point, two. Like you mentioned Golden State, they've been
playing a little bit better. But all these teams that
(04:10):
we kind of saw tonight that are floating around to
this nextus of like, yeah, could they be playoff competitive? Like,
We're going to get a lot of those questions answered
here in the next few weeks before we get to
the middle of April when the postseason begins. And I
tend to think that all these teams we saw today
are going to have big enough red flags that we're
not really going to take them too seriously. And we
saw that with Denver here today too. Defense was awful
and it's been consistent all year long for them as well.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
So Denver right back at it tomorrow night, John, they
take on one of, if not the hottest team in
the NBA right now, the Detroit Pistons. Detroit is favored
by one and a half against Denver. Who do you
gotten this one tomorrow night?
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (04:46):
I mean, I think you're probably considering Detroit the way
that they're playing it right now, right I mean, not
only have they won these games that you're talking about,
having won ah straight covering those contests as well, they're
in the midst of this four game home stand obviously
coming off of the big win for Boston now, But
I will say this situationally, second leg, go back to back,
probably not great for Denver. You always want to see
who's going to play. It's just been playing through these
(05:07):
I don't think you're worried. I think it's the other
pieces that you maybe be worried about. But is there
somewhat of a letdown because Boss, like Denver or Detroit,
was very focused on Boston. That was a very good
situational spot for the Pittons in that game. We talked
about it on Prime Time, catching Boston on their own
back to back. Some injury concerns as well. Brown didn't
end up playing in that game, but you knew, I mean,
Dalen Rose was out there. It was a soul about
(05:29):
craft like they were really fired up for that game.
And now to play a Denver opponent who it's not
like you're not going to get up for him, But
it's not like the Boston team who's actually kind of
scrapped with over the last few years. He used to
kind of meant something to him. So I think situational
if you like letdowns, if you're a situational handicapper, you
might be looking to play against Detroit and maybe fae
In actually play on Denver coming off of a loss
(05:50):
like this, depending on what the injury report looks like tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
All right, well, let's talk about the Celtics, because this is,
you know, marquee matchup of the night, number one against
number two in these stern Conference, two teams that, along
with Oklahoma City we've been talking about the forty twenty
rule lately, those three teams made the cut. Historically, one
of those three will win the championship this year if
you trust the trends going back a few decades now.
(06:13):
The Celtics they are at home and so they are
favored three point favorites, and the market certainly is split
on which way this is going to go. As far
as Cleveland's injury report, it's pretty clean for Boston. Drew
Holiday with the fingers questionable, Jaylen Brown with a thigh
is questionable and missed that latest contest and obviously contributed
to what turned into a pretty lopsided loss last night.
(06:36):
Do you expect the bounce back? Boston has obviously fared
pretty well against Cleveland this year.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
They have, but I think to me I had Cleveland
circle for this Situationally, you like they very clear. I
do think Boston is a better team, but again, when
you talk about these spots where Boston has this target
on their back, Cleveland's had the last two days off
while Boston has had a day off. This is still
the third game in four nights, as they have been
playing the Celtics. Serchity, the Cavaliers sitting back for two
(07:02):
days after beating the crap out of Orlando, just licking
their jobs at the opportunity to take on Boston and
kind of prove to almost everybody that they can get
on the right side of this. Right they've split the
I think we we've seen them split the first two
games up to this point, and then they lost that
one one to twelve to one five right around Super
Bowl week, so they're down in the series. I think
they want to even this thing up. Like I think
(07:23):
that this is one where you're going to get a
very primed Cavaliers team that's been sitting back to getting
ready for him for the last two days to give
him a pretty good run and get a win here.
So as I had circled Cleveland, especially with the injury report,
obviously Brown. I don't know if they're gonna play him
because I made this case two and I wonder what
you guys would think, is like, I don't know if
Boston's too motivated to play in this spot. Third, what
six games back from the one seed? This is more
(07:45):
about the emotion of Cleveland trying to prove to everybody
they actually belong as a contender, as opposed to Boston,
who's won a championship, is going to give the two
seed and is too far out to really make a
realistic run in the one seed. I don't think they
have the emotional charge that Cleveland would here. So I
very much have this the Celtics. There's gonna be a
Cavalier circle here in this spot.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
So does that mean that you're expecting a big night
out of Donovan Mitchell? His points prop sitting in twenty
six and a half right now, looking back at his
game logs against the Celtics, he has seven straight games
against them with at least twenty nine points.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
I think you're gonna get at least a high volume
of shots from him, right, I mean, we saw some
of these games too. I mean, you don't really love
it like We'll go back to the New York game,
where I mean he's taken like some really deep shots.
He's trying to get active really early in the shot clock.
Like it has really been aggressive play from Donovan Mitchell
during this little wind streak that they're on. It's been
impressive at times, and then it's also been some of
(08:34):
these moments you're like, all right, man, like chill out,
we don't need these deep shots from three that he
took against Memphis as well, when he dropped thirty three
against him. But I would say he'd probably be near
the top of the list because in these spots, Mitchell
is pretty he's just shown out. I thought that Sunday
game against the Grizzer is kind of one of those,
right prime times in the loane spot, taking on Memphis,
maybe the second best team in the West, and I
think you'll get another one of those from him here too.
Speaker 3 (08:54):
The Knicks are coming off a game. We were invested
in the Nicks last night to cover they should have
against what should be a tanking Philadelphia team and squandered
it even fell behind. Raley got the win one by five,
needed them by ten, didn't get the job done. Now
they are at Memphis and they are actually dogs in
this game. Now, I'm someone that probably doesn't respect Memphis
(09:17):
as much as most people do. It's a short spread
looking at three points, so if you did want to
go with New York, you can get right around plus
one twenty five on the money line with that one.
Their injury report isn't quite the CBS receipt that Utah
normally is. But Josh Hart, you know, with the knee,
is questionable. Karl Anthony Towns, who missed the last game
(09:39):
with the knee, also questionable. You've got Mitchell Robinson's expected
to make his season debut, which is obviously good news,
he's technically questionable with his ankle. How do you read
this game? Am I crazy for thinking New York? You know?
Never mind the points comes out and wins US.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
No, I don't think you are. I mean it's an
interesting matchup because these are two teams. I was talking
about this on Primetime the other day. We were kind
of doing like a Contenders pretenders deal and I was
throwing a blind resumes with some teams and asking my
co host Matt you do andn Tay what do you
think about this? And one of the concert we're using.
The threads we were using is your record versus opponents
with a top ten net rating, And both Memphis and
(10:20):
New York are very much below five hundred against opponents
with a top ten net rating. Well, they are both
two teams with top ten net ratings and now they're
taking on each other. So how does this really pan out?
I think the one thing I'd be worried about with
New York, and I do think I'll say this out right,
like I think I'd rather be on them here in
this spot. We know that Memphis, course last time we
saw them was that Sun's game, a ridiculous overtime win
for them in a high spring affair. Their offenses I've
(10:42):
been particularly great in these matchups against top ten teams.
Their defense has been very average as well, and we
know how the New York is, but New York's defense
has been so bad against some of the best opponents
in the NBA. Against top ten teams in terms of
net rating, they are thirtieth in non garbage time defensive
efficiency give it all over one hundred and twenty point
for one hundred and twenty four points per one hundred possessions.
(11:03):
And I think that I'd rather gear a little bit
towards some team totals of whatever side you like here
instead of asking them to cover, because this could be
a pretty valuable game. But I think this is going
to be a very high scoring affair. I would lean
toward New York given the situation and Memphis coming off
of that game. But either two teams kind of what
you're alluding to, I just don't really trust either one
of them in the grand scheme of things, one because
Memphis is so hit or miss on offense, and two
(11:24):
New York has been absolutely awful on defensive these spots.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
So we got the Lakers and Clippers going at it
tomorrow night. The Lakers are the home team here on
a back to back tomorrow after this one against Minnesota.
One and a half is the line right now, John,
would you wait a little closer here, unless, I mean,
unless you're going to buy in on the Clippers. I
guess if you want the Clippers, you should take with
the night, But with the Lakers, you might want to
wait to see what the injury report's going to be.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Yeah, I think that's the big one. One and a
half seems to maybe be thinking that there's going to
be some sort of rest potentially for Luka dons shot
on the second leg of a back to back, potentially,
I think the markets at the point, I don't know
if I would agree with it. We'll see what happens tonight.
And the Clippers have been sliding. We should also point
that out that the market thinks that the Lakers rate
better now the Los Angeles Clippers and when they're at
(12:08):
full strength, but this number obviously clearly does not show
that right now. So there's probably some belief, and rightfully so,
that Luka Doncic is maybe gonna sit. He's not been
mentioned minutes restriction anymore, hasn't been for a while, but
he's had a calf issue. That's something that, right you
don't want to aggravate, and I think they're gonna be
pretty cautious with him. So I'm assuming that this means
that Doncic is not going to play. And to your point,
(12:29):
if you're right in that, you can grab something with
the Clippers here and maybe he just gets down to
like pick if it's official that Doncic isn't going to
be out there, but it shouldn't moved too much considering
that I think this number says market thinks that there's
probably going to be no Luca.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
Jonathan manzolb will hanging out with us from Vson, will
come on back more NBA talking a people's parlay for
tomorrow as well. We have Jonathan Vonzolbill here with us
from Vson, and let's keep taking a look at the
NBA Slo Tomorrow Blazers nets. This is the kind of
(13:04):
game that I never would have thought late February would
actually be exciting to talk about, and yet here we are.
Jeremy Grant with his knee questionable on the Portland side camp,
Thomas Hamstring not on the injury report for this one
for the Nets, so both those guys, hopefully we will
see out there. It is a true Pickham I mean,
essentially minus money on both sides, pretty close to it anyway.
(13:28):
The Nets, I guess are basically it even money on
the money line one one and a half point spread
depending on where you look. This is a Blazer's team
John that, as you well know, has been hot lately,
certainly against the spread, thirteen and five straight up over
their last eighteen as well. They've won their last three.
A lot of depth with this team, I mean they're
(13:50):
down in terms of bigs like no DeAndre Ayton, no
Robert Williams, he's been ruled out. But this team, it
just keeps finding away and the next team really isn't
very good. So where do you look here?
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Well, and for the nets, I mean, what do you
get what's the psychological effect of blowing that game against
Oklahoma City? You know, on the point a team that
led what they led by fifteen, it looked like maybe
they weren't going to cover a seventeen point underdogs. Then
of course they hold on, but getting held down to
about a twenty two to two run at the end
of that game was insane. I would very much lay
ahead toward Portland here. I think one of the things
(14:24):
that is really going to work in Portland's favor. This
is the third best offensive rebounding team, even with the
issues at center, they've been a very solid group attacking
the offensive glass, and Brooklyn raises the floor of any
of their opponents. You look at some of the defensive
rebounding numbers for them bottom half of the league. They
allow a ton of different second chance opportunities in terms
of put back points per play. The twenty seventh in
(14:44):
the NBA, They're going to really steer into one thing
that Portland does relatively well overall, which is a lot
of these guys tend to tack the offensive glass. The
other part, too, is Portland likes to get to the
rim second in terms of shot frequency within four feet
of the basket Brooklyn twenty seventh and allowing shots at
the rim. I think there's a lot of matchup here
the things that worked for Portland, so they got definitely
for the Trailblazers in this spot.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
Just looking here across the board, guys, what we got.
We got Indiana and Miami tomorrow night, John the Heater
catching three and a half four points at home. Here
we got the Siaak. Well, Siak has been playing all right, Bam,
is a game time decision here? What do you make
of this match up?
Speaker 2 (15:22):
Yeah, I don't know what. I have not had a
good raid on Miami at all. And you know, you
watch them the other night against Atlanta. It's I think
it was eighty seven eighty seven near the end of
the third quarter and they just beat the tar out
of the Hawks down the stretch to end up winning
by a pretty wide margin. They've really been all over
the place. I think they're going to miss Jovich, who
they lost to that broken hand, like right, like a
(15:43):
pretty decent four S facer. The fact that he is
not going to be out there I think he's going
to hurt them in some of these instances, especially against Indiana.
I don't think you're really going to hold Indiana down
the entire time. As a defense, I would want TJ.
Oconnell out there. He's been questionable as well for Indiana,
but they got meaning towards the pay so past are
a team that you kind of have circled. I don't
know if they're going to make noise in the Eastern Conference,
(16:04):
but they're a team that made it run last year.
They've been evening out on the defensive end. They're not
going to be any stopper by anty stretch, but they've
at least been playing a little bit better in recent weeks.
I think that I very much look toward the team
that has the higher upside on offense here, and that
would be the Idiana Pacers.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
You mentioned the thunder before and what they had to
battle back from, which, by the way, I mean shocked me,
should have shocked everyone you know, And I wasn't even
invested in them in the spread, just had them like
throwing into a money line parlay. And I'm sitting there
watching them down, like you said, fifteen plus points in
the opening quarter, going, are you kidding? Like is this act?
And as hell? They were down, you know, double figures
(16:42):
even late third, early fourth, like it took a while
for them to really come back, and then that final
six minutes sort of had their step on their throat
moments got the job done. They're now eleven and a
half point favorites on the road at Atlanta. We expect
to see Trey Young there. This is not a not
an indictment of what I think of the Thunder. I
(17:04):
think they are one of the best teams in the NBA,
and I think they're going to represent the West in
the NBA Finals. But I wonder if that game against
the Nets and potentially what we see against the Hawks
maybe just kind of an indication of as I put
it earlier on the show, they could be throttling down
a little bit knowing that no one in the West
is going to catch them for the one seed, you know,
(17:26):
they can kind of ease up just a little bit.
They don't need to be at their absolute best every night.
They got you know, some bigs who they're already kind
of load managing, Holme Grin and Hartenstein. It's been a
two man show, and I just wonder if Sga and
Jalen Williams, even though they're young guys, start to kind
of just take it down and notch a little bit
(17:46):
to where Atlanta plus eleven and a half feels like
the right side.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
Yeah, I mean that potentially could be it. I mean,
and just think about the stretch that they're on, right,
I mean, you play two straight games against the Minnesota Timberwolves,
both of them are absolute wars. You blow the game
in Minnesota and lose in overtime. After one day off,
you go and fly out to Brooklyn where they push
you and you've got to make this massive comeback here
as well. And then with a day off, you go
and play on the road again against Atlanta. Like Atlanta's
(18:12):
anything special, Like we just mentioned, they blew that game
against Miami. But you're situationally for Oklahoma City, given what
they've just gone through here over the last four games,
you would think that maybe this is kind of a
tax squad. Going into Atlanta on an East coast trip,
kind of licking their wounds a bit because of all
the games that they've gone through here. They also look
at the injury report. Alex Russo is not going to
play for them either, so you're going to be down
(18:34):
one of your better perimeter defenders. I would agree with
you generally that I think if you look at the
spot the situation, it would scream Atlanta. I just watched
them below that game to Miami in a contest that
looked like they were going to be competitive the entire way,
and I do worry about what the Hawks have in
the tank. So maybe you wouldn't look down to like
a first half if you think that there's going to
be an issue with Oklahoma City. But I would generally
(18:55):
agree with the promise that the thunder don't look like
they're in a position to come out and cover a
number like this.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
And now we get to the part of the show
which has become my nightly complaining about the Phoenix Suns.
This team they suck, like there's no other way to
put it. They have I think they've quit after tonight, John.
They lost to the Pelicans tonight, who had just four
wins on the road all season, Zion has his first
career triple doubles, or New Orleans gets the one twenty
(19:21):
four to one to sixteen win. These two teams right
back at it tomorrow. I don't even think we have
a line yet because the books are too afraid to
hang any sort of a number with this Phoenix team.
But I mean most cases, you would back the team
that just lost the next night of the back to back, right,
but I don't think you can do that with Phoenix
with how they're playing.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Yeah, I mean, just look at that. It's just so
bad on defense, right, That's the thing. It's every single
night on the defense to ends. They have been absolutely brutal.
And it's not just hey, you know the Memphis game
or this one. No, it's been since the middle of January,
if you want to call it quitting or maybe the
effort whatever it is this team. And it's not like
they were a great defensive team, but they have definitely
(19:59):
shifted down defensively. If you look over the last twenty
one games, twenty eighth and non garbage time defensive efficiency
given up one hundred and twenty point five points for
one hundred possessions, like, it's not a team that you're
really I think is really worth backing, and you're not
really getting too much of a discount when you're trying
to go and back them. So maybe the market's going
to swing at some point, But I would say this,
if you're looking to get action on New Orleans Phoenix
(20:20):
with a card like this tomorrow, I feel like there's
better ways to handle your nine, because that game looks
like it's going to be atrocious.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Well, the only game that we don't have aligned for
there are some of the games we haven't touched on yet,
but the other one we don't have aligned for is
obviously Timberwolves Jazz. You know, Minnesota's is going to have
to play again after enduring whatever is happening there with
the Lakers at the moment. John Collins questionable with his
back injury, Laurie Markinen back injury questionable, Colin Sexton questionable ankle,
(20:50):
and so it's a team, obviously Utah that is not
going anywhere. We know that Minnesota is a good team,
but as you noted, the Edwards was a true game
time decision going into this one. He's playing and not
particularly well. They're down by twenty in the opening half
to the Lakers. I can't help but wonder if Chris
Finch is, you know, if it looks anything like this
(21:13):
come late third start of the fourth he just packs
it in and says, screw it, we're playing tomorrow. I'm
curious because again, nothing's posted what the line is going
to look like, but the invest in Minnesota to sort
of just respond to this game if nothing else, despite
the rest for Utah.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
Yeah, maybe, because that's the part Utah has been playing
these games where they'll they'll list Collins market In Sexton
is questionable, and then they'll end up setting them out
because we know what part, what time of year, it is, right,
it's time to get ready to go potentially make a
push for Cooper flag as opposed to a realistic push
to win some of these games. I think there's a
pretty good chance than not that two at least of
(21:52):
the three guys that are listed as questionable aren't going
to play for Utah tomorrow and for Minnesota. Like you
talked about it, it's interesting. It's how they handle it
because Edwards has truly banged up, Dante DiVincenzo has been injured.
Of course, and finally came back. You had You've had
Rudy Gobert that's been out with the back issue for
a while now. I think this is his fifth straight
this game. Obviously we know Randall's been out too. You know,
just this team, if they end up just getting pasted here,
(22:15):
just sit back, let their guys rest, get Saturday, get
five day hen Saturday off for a road game against
Sunday against the Phoenix Suns. Is how they're going to
handle it. But this, this screams this game. At least
monitor the injury reports and how these teams are going
to handle it, and the god forbid the Timberwolves make
another comeback here tonight. Then all of a sudden, you're
looking at a situation where you've had these two games
against the Thunder, had two days off of both of them,
(22:36):
rows the Wars, and you do this against plus handeles
Lakers and they have to go up to altitude to
play Utah. Wouldn't be the best situation at all for Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
I think Dan that leaves us with we haven't done
Raptors Bulls yet.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
I was gonna say, do we really need to talk
about Toronto Chicago?
Speaker 3 (22:52):
But yeah, you got.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
Admitted the Bulls blew out the seventy six ers by
forty in Toronto's one of the best cover teams of
the league.
Speaker 4 (22:57):
All right, see sounds like John's got thoughts, please let
us have it.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Well, so it's funny to say this. So I'm a
very much like a closet Toronto guy, like I really
do think this Raptors team is better than what their
record has really shown. Obviously, the Ats record would kind
of prove that to an extent, to a very competitive
in a lot of these games. And Chicago, I very
much think, especially that the other night again at Philly
or Chicago grudgingly won a game by thirty points because
(23:23):
they don't want to win these games. They're a team
that is very much trying to bottom out. It's almost
it's funny. You can almost see the way they handle
some of these contests in these lineups where they're begging
somebody to take the tendency from them so they don't
end up in the play in. But Brooklyn and Philly
will not actly s. But I do think Toronto would
be willing to do it. Now, obviously it's gonna take
it's gonna be about the injury report here, Scotty Barnes
(23:44):
is questionable to play, and then you have a a
litany of guys who are out, but Barnes is the
big one. But I'll say this, if Barnes plays, give
me the Toronto Raptors. I think they're in a pretty
good spot to get a win against a Bulls team
that does not want to win.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
All right, guys, when we go to the People's parlay,
get everyone's favorite plays for tomorrow, NBA College, whatever the
heck it may be, and try and make some money. John,
you obviously have been part of this a number of
times before. We always like to tell people the stats,
and for you, they're pretty good. You're five and four
on your official show plays. But what's even more impressive
(24:18):
the parlay with you, which are not short parlays four, five, six,
seven to one, four and five very profitable. So let's
see what we can do here tomorrow. What's your favorite play?
Speaker 2 (24:30):
Now we're going to go to Southern California. We'll give
this another whack, but I think situationally makes a ton
of sense. Give me the Clippers plus one and a
half against the Los Angeles Lakers. Norton Powell was upgraded
today to questionable, so it sounds like he's going to
finally make his way back from injury. Kai Leonard he's
not on the injury report either of This is a
Clippers team that has not been playing, particularly what elxcept
the three game winning their losing streak against Chicago the
(24:52):
other night. But I think coming back, coming back home,
I put in air quotes because it is a road
game for them, but being back in LA with everybody available,
potentially against the Lakers team that absolutely pasted them last
time out, they'll be up and ready to go. And
I think there's some matchups that really work in their favor.
You know, James Harden's going to be able to get
his pick of guys who wants to go after here
in this matchup, right, He's going to be able to
(25:12):
get Austin Reeves on him. He's going to be able
to if he plays, get Luka Doncic or some of
these other smaller guys on him too. I think there's
something that really works here for the Clippers in the spot.
And we don't even know if Luka donci is gonna play.
I would venture I guess that maybe he doesn't, so
I think everything kind of points to the Clippers here
in the spot catching the Lakers with no rest tomorrow.
So give me the Los Angeles Clippers.
Speaker 4 (25:32):
Dan So taking us to college basketball, guys, Big one
in the Big Ten tomorrow night. Purdue Ucla. Purdue is
at home here tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Now.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
The Boilermakers have lost four in a row, but I
really like this spot here for them to bounce back.
They've been off since Sunday, to kind of get their
head right. They take on a UCLA team that has
just not been good when they have to travel multiple
time zones here, they are one in four when they
have to travel two plus time zones in conference. That's
straight up. They're two and three against the spread here.
Nick Cronin's complained about the travels. We've heard him at
(26:02):
the podium, you know, whining about that. So I think
that's in their head a little bit. Let's lay the
four and a half with the Boilermakers at home here,
and this number is starting to move to five and
a half at some other spots as well. You can
still get that four and a half on FanDuel.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
Right now, all right, guys, I'm going to take the Blazers,
who have won, you know, three in a rows. We
talked about they're playing well. I know they're a little
short in the middle, but nevertheless the team is is
looking good, obviously chasing a spot in the Western Conference
playing tournament. And part of the reason that I like
this when we touched on this just a little bit,
it's the schedule spot. You know, usually that might be
(26:37):
something to avoid. In this case, Portland on this long
road trip here has a I guess frisky after what
we saw against the thunder Nets team, but not a
good Nets team. Meanwhile, Cleveland and Boston on the horizon
on the road, this is kind of a you know,
not a must win, there's no such thing at this
stage of the year, but I think it could have
that level of feel of importance for the Blazers going
(26:59):
into this one. But I want to ask you a
quick question on this play, John, So it opened to
two and a half Portland being favored on the road,
and now we're seeing plus one and a half's in
the market. Is this all the the Cam Thomas return.
What do you attribute the line movement to, because that's
pretty stuck.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
I would assume that's Thomas applying here. That's a pretty
big piece for Brooklyn, and I think that's probably worth
the swing of where you're getting it from.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
Yeah, well I'm gonna go Blazer's money line. May as well.
We're gonna chase it. Let's chase it. So here's what
we have, Brian shopping it around plus five ninety three
on Fandel with the Clippers, plus one plus five seventy
four on DraftKings with the Clippers, plus one and a
half just to function, John, And whether or not you
want that push protection.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
No, we don't need a push protection. We're gonna get
this thing done.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
There you go, five ninety three on FanDuel. That's the
people's parlay that we are getting after here tomorrow night.
Jonathan von tobl on Twitter at me JVT. He as
a host of VSENT Prime Time. John, Thanks so much, man,
we'll bug you again real soon.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Yeah please, you guys.
Speaker 3 (28:06):
Absolutely will step side, come on back check at show
plays and let you know. Obviously some more details with
this one as well. You see Santa Barbara's open things
up with a few minutes to go, which is wonderful.
Goucha Ducks Ducks got it done. Doesn't even win or lose,
(28:26):
doesn't matter just needed him to three goals, and they're
there one period to go, and we just got home
on Portland state as well, so that means we might have,
if my math is right, a plus two unit day.
I believe sounds nice. You know we're we're happy with that.
(28:48):
It's you know, I said to Brian, I am the
like I just escalations of jerk. I suppose because I I,
you know, I my straight killed the parlay down a
couple of units. I got hooked on my bank orll repair.
Brian's like, it makes you the ultimate you know that
you're the super jerk or whatever he called me. And
I said, well, and I you know, I pushed nas
(29:10):
red points rebounds versus just rebounds if rebounds ends up
coming home and points missus by a million. I'm the
just the dizenith, the jerkiest, the jerkist.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
What a day start calling you jack links over there
and yet.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
Still profitable in spite of me, so hell of a
job by the in spite of Adam Common. There's a
show drop there.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
You go.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
Tell me about these golfers. How how we looking Tomorrow?
We're gonna start, you know, not start because obviously it
won't be decided at like noon, but we're gonna be
uh plus two units before the craziness tomorrow.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
Should be uh so top sixty five and ties make
the cut. Here, our guys are all at least tied
for forty eighth or better. Glover was three under today,
Straco was four under, Clanton was four under, and Lowry
was five under. On that sixty five range right now
is right around like it's a two under or so,
So everybody's looking good. Just keep doing what you did
(30:12):
today and yeah, be a couple of units for us tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Yeah, they're saying projected cut right now is around five under,
so it depends on conditions. Are tomorrow s guys shoot
as well they did today?
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Okay, well hopefully they do. Obviously I do not yet
have my bank roll repair, just to circle back to
bring that up earlier. I just I'm not it's not
coming together the way I wanted to at the moment,
So that will be in addition to the action app
to Gambler with AK. But we have loaded in a
whole bunch of plays for tomorrow so far that you
can go and check out. Between Dan's bank roll Repair
(30:45):
and People's Parlay, multiple straits, all that good stuff and
obviously these golf plays that we are tracking, but you're
late to the party if you haven't invested in those
of yet. How's your We got to wrap in a moment,
but how's your Red Sox spring training buzz going?
Speaker 4 (31:00):
Cossus the GM over seven so far.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
Thoroughly man, it'll turn.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Yeah, sure, we'll see.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:09):
Tell you what, you wouldn't believe how many people are
texting me from outside of Boston and like, I'm investing
in your team. Love that team. Thanks to our guest
Dan Bryan, I'm Adam. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
You've been listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six p't eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your podcast.
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly vetting.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling to animal.
How do you do that but being good at it?
Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Streaming live on the iHeartRadio app. Me a moment, Subscribe
to the podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Back to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
Third hour, Final hour of the week, Final hour of
February programming year on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. March
is almost here, Dan, can't wait? Can you feel it
in your bones?
Speaker 4 (00:40):
And not wait?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
We made a lot of money on this show in
March of last year. Let's hope we can do that again.
That was a lot of fun. Tell you what. Our
next guest, even though he's on with us to stock NBA,
was a part of that as well. He was coming
on during conference tournaments March Madness time as the rounds
progressed and giving us some of his favorite plays. He's
a big college hoops guy, just a hoops guy in general.
(01:03):
Hasn't been on with us in a bit either. We've
missed him. Jonathan von Tobel, a host a Vison Prime
Time of course, over at Vson and he is on
Twitter at me JVT. How you been John? Good?
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Guys, good, very excited. This is the best time of
year basketball. Obviously, college hoop takes center stage. I'm in
our College Hoop Challenge over at vas In, so you
know you're gonna be competitive during this time hopefully too.
So yes, very excited about the time you were in.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Right now, Well, let's focus in on the NBA at
this moment here, we still have a game in progress,
that is the Lakers just throttling the Timberwolves, nearing the
end of the opening quarter, up by fourteen points or so.
Just quickly on this one. Did you know I was
considering making the Lakers to cover an official show play
(01:52):
six six and a half points, but I just kind
of looked at it and said, I don't know, number
feels a little big. I think LA will win. I'd
money line parlayan, but feels a little big. And of
course you know Luca Lebron, all these guys, they're just
picking up right where they left off against Dallas, up
by now sixteen to close a one.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Yeah. Actually I have sim Wolves plus six and a
half here, so hopefully they can get back into this thing,
waiting to see if Anthony Edward's gonna play, so stanched
it up when he was out there, but not getting
much offensive support from a couple of guys in the
lineup McDaniels and Nazrita and shut out Goose Eggs to
this point. But we saw Minnesota come back and close
a game out on a sixteen and nothing last time
they were on the floor, So we'll count them out
(02:33):
down thirty three to seventeen. But do have a little
bit of Minnesota plus six and a half tonight.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
There you go, and it's just another one on tonight
before we moved to tomorrow. I guess a couple of things. One,
you had Warriors and Magic. I know these aren't teams
that necessarily people believe our title bound, but.
Speaker 4 (02:52):
You know it's getting hot though.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, they should both be in the postseason. I know
once Curry's there, in particular, it's hard to count him out.
Dude flirted with sixty point. He had a quiet forty
on the other side out of ban Cao. And meanwhile,
a matchup of teams that you know, we do have
a lot of respect for one more than the other.
Denver actually lost in Milwaukee despite that minutes limit for
Janni's consistent thirty two and while you had a Joker
(03:17):
triple leuble, you had the Jannis go for nearly twenty twenty.
You know, both these dudes showed out head to head.
What'd you make of that game?
Speaker 2 (03:26):
For Denver and Milwaukee. Look, I think for both of
these teams, it's going to be pretty interesting as we
enter the home stretch here for both of them because
they both have some clear flaws I think on defense,
and we saw a little bit of it for both teams.
I mean, for Milwaukee, you don't really have anybody to
trust along the perimeter that's going to guard any one
key guard. On the other end, the problem is for
Denver today and Murray was fine, but Murray's been very
(03:49):
inconsistent throughout this year. They don't really have anybody to
really test that against the Milwaukee Bucks. But that's what
I'm kind of looking for for both of these teams,
is what's your perimeter defense look like? Because it's been
very inconsistent and I think going to be a big
problem for them once they enter into the postseason, which
both of them should be there and like to your
overall point, two. Like you mentioned Golden State, they've been
playing a little bit better. But all these teams that
(04:10):
we kind of saw tonight that are floating around to
this nextus of like, yeah, could they be playoff competitive? Like,
We're going to get a lot of those questions answered
here in the next few weeks before we get to
the middle of April when the postseason begins. And I
tend to think that all these teams we saw today
are going to have big enough red flags that we're
not really going to take them too seriously. And we
saw that with Denver here today too. Defense was awful
and it's been consistent all year long for them as well.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
So Denver right back at it tomorrow night, John, they
take on one of, if not the hottest team in
the NBA right now, the Detroit Pistons. Detroit is favored
by one and a half against Denver. Who do you
gotten this one tomorrow night?
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (04:46):
I mean, I think you're probably considering Detroit the way
that they're playing it right now, right I mean, not
only have they won these games that you're talking about,
having won ah straight covering those contests as well, they're
in the midst of this four game home stand obviously
coming off of the big win for Boston now, But
I will say this situationally, second leg, go back to back,
probably not great for Denver. You always want to see
who's going to play. It's just been playing through these
(05:07):
I don't think you're worried. I think it's the other
pieces that you maybe be worried about. But is there
somewhat of a letdown because Boss, like Denver or Detroit,
was very focused on Boston. That was a very good
situational spot for the Pittons in that game. We talked
about it on Prime Time, catching Boston on their own
back to back. Some injury concerns as well. Brown didn't
end up playing in that game, but you knew, I mean,
Dalen Rose was out there. It was a soul about
(05:29):
craft like they were really fired up for that game.
And now to play a Denver opponent who it's not
like you're not going to get up for him, But
it's not like the Boston team who's actually kind of
scrapped with over the last few years. He used to
kind of meant something to him. So I think situational
if you like letdowns, if you're a situational handicapper, you
might be looking to play against Detroit and maybe fae
In actually play on Denver coming off of a loss
(05:50):
like this, depending on what the injury report looks like tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
All right, well, let's talk about the Celtics, because this is,
you know, marquee matchup of the night, number one against
number two in these stern Conference, two teams that, along
with Oklahoma City we've been talking about the forty twenty
rule lately, those three teams made the cut. Historically, one
of those three will win the championship this year if
you trust the trends going back a few decades now.
(06:13):
The Celtics they are at home and so they are
favored three point favorites, and the market certainly is split
on which way this is going to go. As far
as Cleveland's injury report, it's pretty clean for Boston. Drew
Holiday with the fingers questionable, Jaylen Brown with a thigh
is questionable and missed that latest contest and obviously contributed
to what turned into a pretty lopsided loss last night.
(06:36):
Do you expect the bounce back? Boston has obviously fared
pretty well against Cleveland this year.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
They have, but I think to me I had Cleveland
circle for this Situationally, you like they very clear. I
do think Boston is a better team, but again, when
you talk about these spots where Boston has this target
on their back, Cleveland's had the last two days off
while Boston has had a day off. This is still
the third game in four nights, as they have been
playing the Celtics. Serchity, the Cavaliers sitting back for two
(07:02):
days after beating the crap out of Orlando, just licking
their jobs at the opportunity to take on Boston and
kind of prove to almost everybody that they can get
on the right side of this. Right they've split the
I think we we've seen them split the first two
games up to this point, and then they lost that
one one to twelve to one five right around Super
Bowl week, so they're down in the series. I think
they want to even this thing up. Like I think
(07:23):
that this is one where you're going to get a
very primed Cavaliers team that's been sitting back to getting
ready for him for the last two days to give
him a pretty good run and get a win here.
So as I had circled Cleveland, especially with the injury report,
obviously Brown. I don't know if they're gonna play him
because I made this case two and I wonder what
you guys would think, is like, I don't know if
Boston's too motivated to play in this spot. Third, what
six games back from the one seed? This is more
(07:45):
about the emotion of Cleveland trying to prove to everybody
they actually belong as a contender, as opposed to Boston,
who's won a championship, is going to give the two
seed and is too far out to really make a
realistic run in the one seed. I don't think they
have the emotional charge that Cleveland would here. So I
very much have this the Celtics. There's gonna be a
Cavalier circle here in this spot.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
So does that mean that you're expecting a big night
out of Donovan Mitchell? His points prop sitting in twenty
six and a half right now, looking back at his
game logs against the Celtics, he has seven straight games
against them with at least twenty nine points.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
I think you're gonna get at least a high volume
of shots from him, right, I mean, we saw some
of these games too. I mean, you don't really love
it like We'll go back to the New York game,
where I mean he's taken like some really deep shots.
He's trying to get active really early in the shot clock.
Like it has really been aggressive play from Donovan Mitchell
during this little wind streak that they're on. It's been
impressive at times, and then it's also been some of
(08:34):
these moments you're like, all right, man, like chill out,
we don't need these deep shots from three that he
took against Memphis as well, when he dropped thirty three
against him. But I would say he'd probably be near
the top of the list because in these spots, Mitchell
is pretty he's just shown out. I thought that Sunday
game against the Grizzer is kind of one of those,
right prime times in the loane spot, taking on Memphis,
maybe the second best team in the West, and I
think you'll get another one of those from him here too.
Speaker 3 (08:54):
The Knicks are coming off a game. We were invested
in the Nicks last night to cover they should have
against what should be a tanking Philadelphia team and squandered
it even fell behind. Raley got the win one by five,
needed them by ten, didn't get the job done. Now
they are at Memphis and they are actually dogs in
this game. Now, I'm someone that probably doesn't respect Memphis
(09:17):
as much as most people do. It's a short spread
looking at three points, so if you did want to
go with New York, you can get right around plus
one twenty five on the money line with that one.
Their injury report isn't quite the CBS receipt that Utah
normally is. But Josh Hart, you know, with the knee,
is questionable. Karl Anthony Towns, who missed the last game
(09:39):
with the knee, also questionable. You've got Mitchell Robinson's expected
to make his season debut, which is obviously good news,
he's technically questionable with his ankle. How do you read
this game? Am I crazy for thinking New York? You know?
Never mind the points comes out and wins US.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
No, I don't think you are. I mean it's an
interesting matchup because these are two teams. I was talking
about this on Primetime the other day. We were kind
of doing like a Contenders pretenders deal and I was
throwing a blind resumes with some teams and asking my
co host Matt you do andn Tay what do you
think about this? And one of the concert we're using.
The threads we were using is your record versus opponents
with a top ten net rating, And both Memphis and
(10:20):
New York are very much below five hundred against opponents
with a top ten net rating. Well, they are both
two teams with top ten net ratings and now they're
taking on each other. So how does this really pan out?
I think the one thing I'd be worried about with
New York, and I do think I'll say this out right,
like I think I'd rather be on them here in
this spot. We know that Memphis, course last time we
saw them was that Sun's game, a ridiculous overtime win
for them in a high spring affair. Their offenses I've
(10:42):
been particularly great in these matchups against top ten teams.
Their defense has been very average as well, and we
know how the New York is, but New York's defense
has been so bad against some of the best opponents
in the NBA. Against top ten teams in terms of
net rating, they are thirtieth in non garbage time defensive
efficiency give it all over one hundred and twenty point
for one hundred and twenty four points per one hundred possessions.
(11:03):
And I think that I'd rather gear a little bit
towards some team totals of whatever side you like here
instead of asking them to cover, because this could be
a pretty valuable game. But I think this is going
to be a very high scoring affair. I would lean
toward New York given the situation and Memphis coming off
of that game. But either two teams kind of what
you're alluding to, I just don't really trust either one
of them in the grand scheme of things, one because
Memphis is so hit or miss on offense, and two
(11:24):
New York has been absolutely awful on defensive these spots.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
So we got the Lakers and Clippers going at it
tomorrow night. The Lakers are the home team here on
a back to back tomorrow after this one against Minnesota.
One and a half is the line right now, John,
would you wait a little closer here, unless, I mean,
unless you're going to buy in on the Clippers. I
guess if you want the Clippers, you should take with
the night, But with the Lakers, you might want to
wait to see what the injury report's going to be.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Yeah, I think that's the big one. One and a
half seems to maybe be thinking that there's going to
be some sort of rest potentially for Luka dons shot
on the second leg of a back to back, potentially,
I think the markets at the point, I don't know
if I would agree with it. We'll see what happens tonight.
And the Clippers have been sliding. We should also point
that out that the market thinks that the Lakers rate
better now the Los Angeles Clippers and when they're at
(12:08):
full strength, but this number obviously clearly does not show
that right now. So there's probably some belief, and rightfully so,
that Luka Doncic is maybe gonna sit. He's not been
mentioned minutes restriction anymore, hasn't been for a while, but
he's had a calf issue. That's something that, right you
don't want to aggravate, and I think they're gonna be
pretty cautious with him. So I'm assuming that this means
that Doncic is not going to play. And to your point,
(12:29):
if you're right in that, you can grab something with
the Clippers here and maybe he just gets down to
like pick if it's official that Doncic isn't going to
be out there, but it shouldn't moved too much considering
that I think this number says market thinks that there's
probably going to be no Luca.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
Jonathan manzolb will hanging out with us from Vson, will
come on back more NBA talking a people's parlay for
tomorrow as well. We have Jonathan Vonzolbill here with us
from Vson, and let's keep taking a look at the
NBA Slo Tomorrow Blazers nets. This is the kind of
(13:04):
game that I never would have thought late February would
actually be exciting to talk about, and yet here we are.
Jeremy Grant with his knee questionable on the Portland side camp,
Thomas Hamstring not on the injury report for this one
for the Nets, so both those guys, hopefully we will
see out there. It is a true Pickham I mean,
essentially minus money on both sides, pretty close to it anyway.
(13:28):
The Nets, I guess are basically it even money on
the money line one one and a half point spread
depending on where you look. This is a Blazer's team
John that, as you well know, has been hot lately,
certainly against the spread, thirteen and five straight up over
their last eighteen as well. They've won their last three.
A lot of depth with this team, I mean they're
(13:50):
down in terms of bigs like no DeAndre Ayton, no
Robert Williams, he's been ruled out. But this team, it
just keeps finding away and the next team really isn't
very good. So where do you look here?
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Well, and for the nets, I mean, what do you
get what's the psychological effect of blowing that game against
Oklahoma City? You know, on the point a team that
led what they led by fifteen, it looked like maybe
they weren't going to cover a seventeen point underdogs. Then
of course they hold on, but getting held down to
about a twenty two to two run at the end
of that game was insane. I would very much lay
ahead toward Portland here. I think one of the things
(14:24):
that is really going to work in Portland's favor. This
is the third best offensive rebounding team, even with the
issues at center, they've been a very solid group attacking
the offensive glass, and Brooklyn raises the floor of any
of their opponents. You look at some of the defensive
rebounding numbers for them bottom half of the league. They
allow a ton of different second chance opportunities in terms
of put back points per play. The twenty seventh in
(14:44):
the NBA, They're going to really steer into one thing
that Portland does relatively well overall, which is a lot
of these guys tend to tack the offensive glass. The
other part, too, is Portland likes to get to the
rim second in terms of shot frequency within four feet
of the basket Brooklyn twenty seventh and allowing shots at
the rim. I think there's a lot of matchup here
the things that worked for Portland, so they got definitely
for the Trailblazers in this spot.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
Just looking here across the board, guys, what we got.
We got Indiana and Miami tomorrow night, John the Heater
catching three and a half four points at home. Here
we got the Siaak. Well, Siak has been playing all right, Bam,
is a game time decision here? What do you make
of this match up?
Speaker 2 (15:22):
Yeah, I don't know what. I have not had a
good raid on Miami at all. And you know, you
watch them the other night against Atlanta. It's I think
it was eighty seven eighty seven near the end of
the third quarter and they just beat the tar out
of the Hawks down the stretch to end up winning
by a pretty wide margin. They've really been all over
the place. I think they're going to miss Jovich, who
they lost to that broken hand, like right, like a
(15:43):
pretty decent four S facer. The fact that he is
not going to be out there I think he's going
to hurt them in some of these instances, especially against Indiana.
I don't think you're really going to hold Indiana down
the entire time. As a defense, I would want TJ.
Oconnell out there. He's been questionable as well for Indiana,
but they got meaning towards the pay so past are
a team that you kind of have circled. I don't
know if they're going to make noise in the Eastern Conference,
(16:04):
but they're a team that made it run last year.
They've been evening out on the defensive end. They're not
going to be any stopper by anty stretch, but they've
at least been playing a little bit better in recent weeks.
I think that I very much look toward the team
that has the higher upside on offense here, and that
would be the Idiana Pacers.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
You mentioned the thunder before and what they had to
battle back from, which, by the way, I mean shocked me,
should have shocked everyone you know, And I wasn't even
invested in them in the spread, just had them like
throwing into a money line parlay. And I'm sitting there
watching them down, like you said, fifteen plus points in
the opening quarter, going, are you kidding? Like is this act?
And as hell? They were down, you know, double figures
(16:42):
even late third, early fourth, like it took a while
for them to really come back, and then that final
six minutes sort of had their step on their throat
moments got the job done. They're now eleven and a
half point favorites on the road at Atlanta. We expect
to see Trey Young there. This is not a not
an indictment of what I think of the Thunder. I
(17:04):
think they are one of the best teams in the NBA,
and I think they're going to represent the West in
the NBA Finals. But I wonder if that game against
the Nets and potentially what we see against the Hawks
maybe just kind of an indication of as I put
it earlier on the show, they could be throttling down
a little bit knowing that no one in the West
is going to catch them for the one seed, you know,
(17:26):
they can kind of ease up just a little bit.
They don't need to be at their absolute best every night.
They got you know, some bigs who they're already kind
of load managing, Holme Grin and Hartenstein. It's been a
two man show, and I just wonder if Sga and
Jalen Williams, even though they're young guys, start to kind
of just take it down and notch a little bit
(17:46):
to where Atlanta plus eleven and a half feels like
the right side.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
Yeah, I mean that potentially could be it. I mean,
and just think about the stretch that they're on, right,
I mean, you play two straight games against the Minnesota Timberwolves,
both of them are absolute wars. You blow the game
in Minnesota and lose in overtime. After one day off,
you go and fly out to Brooklyn where they push
you and you've got to make this massive comeback here
as well. And then with a day off, you go
and play on the road again against Atlanta. Like Atlanta's
(18:12):
anything special, Like we just mentioned, they blew that game
against Miami. But you're situationally for Oklahoma City, given what
they've just gone through here over the last four games,
you would think that maybe this is kind of a
tax squad. Going into Atlanta on an East coast trip,
kind of licking their wounds a bit because of all
the games that they've gone through here. They also look
at the injury report. Alex Russo is not going to
play for them either, so you're going to be down
(18:34):
one of your better perimeter defenders. I would agree with
you generally that I think if you look at the
spot the situation, it would scream Atlanta. I just watched
them below that game to Miami in a contest that
looked like they were going to be competitive the entire way,
and I do worry about what the Hawks have in
the tank. So maybe you wouldn't look down to like
a first half if you think that there's going to
be an issue with Oklahoma City. But I would generally
(18:55):
agree with the promise that the thunder don't look like
they're in a position to come out and cover a
number like this.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
And now we get to the part of the show
which has become my nightly complaining about the Phoenix Suns.
This team they suck, like there's no other way to
put it. They have I think they've quit after tonight, John.
They lost to the Pelicans tonight, who had just four
wins on the road all season, Zion has his first
career triple doubles, or New Orleans gets the one twenty
(19:21):
four to one to sixteen win. These two teams right
back at it tomorrow. I don't even think we have
a line yet because the books are too afraid to
hang any sort of a number with this Phoenix team.
But I mean most cases, you would back the team
that just lost the next night of the back to back, right,
but I don't think you can do that with Phoenix
with how they're playing.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Yeah, I mean, just look at that. It's just so
bad on defense, right, That's the thing. It's every single
night on the defense to ends. They have been absolutely brutal.
And it's not just hey, you know the Memphis game
or this one. No, it's been since the middle of January,
if you want to call it quitting or maybe the
effort whatever it is this team. And it's not like
they were a great defensive team, but they have definitely
(19:59):
shifted down defensively. If you look over the last twenty
one games, twenty eighth and non garbage time defensive efficiency
given up one hundred and twenty point five points for
one hundred possessions, like, it's not a team that you're
really I think is really worth backing, and you're not
really getting too much of a discount when you're trying
to go and back them. So maybe the market's going
to swing at some point, But I would say this,
if you're looking to get action on New Orleans Phoenix
(20:20):
with a card like this tomorrow, I feel like there's
better ways to handle your nine, because that game looks
like it's going to be atrocious.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Well, the only game that we don't have aligned for
there are some of the games we haven't touched on yet,
but the other one we don't have aligned for is
obviously Timberwolves Jazz. You know, Minnesota's is going to have
to play again after enduring whatever is happening there with
the Lakers at the moment. John Collins questionable with his
back injury, Laurie Markinen back injury questionable, Colin Sexton questionable ankle,
(20:50):
and so it's a team, obviously Utah that is not
going anywhere. We know that Minnesota is a good team,
but as you noted, the Edwards was a true game
time decision going into this one. He's playing and not
particularly well. They're down by twenty in the opening half
to the Lakers. I can't help but wonder if Chris
Finch is, you know, if it looks anything like this
(21:13):
come late third start of the fourth he just packs
it in and says, screw it, we're playing tomorrow. I'm
curious because again, nothing's posted what the line is going
to look like, but the invest in Minnesota to sort
of just respond to this game if nothing else, despite
the rest for Utah.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
Yeah, maybe, because that's the part Utah has been playing
these games where they'll they'll list Collins market In Sexton
is questionable, and then they'll end up setting them out
because we know what part, what time of year, it is, right,
it's time to get ready to go potentially make a
push for Cooper flag as opposed to a realistic push
to win some of these games. I think there's a
pretty good chance than not that two at least of
(21:52):
the three guys that are listed as questionable aren't going
to play for Utah tomorrow and for Minnesota. Like you
talked about it, it's interesting. It's how they handle it
because Edwards has truly banged up, Dante DiVincenzo has been injured.
Of course, and finally came back. You had You've had
Rudy Gobert that's been out with the back issue for
a while now. I think this is his fifth straight
this game. Obviously we know Randall's been out too. You know,
just this team, if they end up just getting pasted here,
(22:15):
just sit back, let their guys rest, get Saturday, get
five day hen Saturday off for a road game against
Sunday against the Phoenix Suns. Is how they're going to
handle it. But this, this screams this game. At least
monitor the injury reports and how these teams are going
to handle it, and the god forbid the Timberwolves make
another comeback here tonight. Then all of a sudden, you're
looking at a situation where you've had these two games
against the Thunder, had two days off of both of them,
(22:36):
rows the Wars, and you do this against plus handeles
Lakers and they have to go up to altitude to
play Utah. Wouldn't be the best situation at all for Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
I think Dan that leaves us with we haven't done
Raptors Bulls yet.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
I was gonna say, do we really need to talk
about Toronto Chicago?
Speaker 3 (22:52):
But yeah, you got.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
Admitted the Bulls blew out the seventy six ers by
forty in Toronto's one of the best cover teams of
the league.
Speaker 4 (22:57):
All right, see sounds like John's got thoughts, please let
us have it.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Well, so it's funny to say this. So I'm a
very much like a closet Toronto guy, like I really
do think this Raptors team is better than what their
record has really shown. Obviously, the Ats record would kind
of prove that to an extent, to a very competitive
in a lot of these games. And Chicago, I very
much think, especially that the other night again at Philly
or Chicago grudgingly won a game by thirty points because
(23:23):
they don't want to win these games. They're a team
that is very much trying to bottom out. It's almost
it's funny. You can almost see the way they handle
some of these contests in these lineups where they're begging
somebody to take the tendency from them so they don't
end up in the play in. But Brooklyn and Philly
will not actly s. But I do think Toronto would
be willing to do it. Now, obviously it's gonna take
it's gonna be about the injury report here, Scotty Barnes
(23:44):
is questionable to play, and then you have a a
litany of guys who are out, but Barnes is the
big one. But I'll say this, if Barnes plays, give
me the Toronto Raptors. I think they're in a pretty
good spot to get a win against a Bulls team
that does not want to win.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
All right, guys, when we go to the People's parlay,
get everyone's favorite plays for tomorrow, NBA College, whatever the
heck it may be, and try and make some money. John,
you obviously have been part of this a number of
times before. We always like to tell people the stats,
and for you, they're pretty good. You're five and four
on your official show plays. But what's even more impressive
(24:18):
the parlay with you, which are not short parlays four, five, six,
seven to one, four and five very profitable. So let's
see what we can do here tomorrow. What's your favorite play?
Speaker 2 (24:30):
Now we're going to go to Southern California. We'll give
this another whack, but I think situationally makes a ton
of sense. Give me the Clippers plus one and a
half against the Los Angeles Lakers. Norton Powell was upgraded
today to questionable, so it sounds like he's going to
finally make his way back from injury. Kai Leonard he's
not on the injury report either of This is a
Clippers team that has not been playing, particularly what elxcept
the three game winning their losing streak against Chicago the
(24:52):
other night. But I think coming back, coming back home,
I put in air quotes because it is a road
game for them, but being back in LA with everybody available,
potentially against the Lakers team that absolutely pasted them last
time out, they'll be up and ready to go. And
I think there's some matchups that really work in their favor.
You know, James Harden's going to be able to get
his pick of guys who wants to go after here
in this matchup, right, He's going to be able to
(25:12):
get Austin Reeves on him. He's going to be able
to if he plays, get Luka Doncic or some of
these other smaller guys on him too. I think there's
something that really works here for the Clippers in the spot.
And we don't even know if Luka donci is gonna play.
I would venture I guess that maybe he doesn't, so
I think everything kind of points to the Clippers here
in the spot catching the Lakers with no rest tomorrow.
So give me the Los Angeles Clippers.
Speaker 4 (25:32):
Dan So taking us to college basketball, guys, Big one
in the Big Ten tomorrow night. Purdue Ucla. Purdue is
at home here tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Now.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
The Boilermakers have lost four in a row, but I
really like this spot here for them to bounce back.
They've been off since Sunday, to kind of get their
head right. They take on a UCLA team that has
just not been good when they have to travel multiple
time zones here, they are one in four when they
have to travel two plus time zones in conference. That's
straight up. They're two and three against the spread here.
Nick Cronin's complained about the travels. We've heard him at
(26:02):
the podium, you know, whining about that. So I think
that's in their head a little bit. Let's lay the
four and a half with the Boilermakers at home here,
and this number is starting to move to five and
a half at some other spots as well. You can
still get that four and a half on FanDuel.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
Right now, all right, guys, I'm going to take the Blazers,
who have won, you know, three in a rows. We
talked about they're playing well. I know they're a little
short in the middle, but nevertheless the team is is
looking good, obviously chasing a spot in the Western Conference
playing tournament. And part of the reason that I like
this when we touched on this just a little bit,
it's the schedule spot. You know, usually that might be
(26:37):
something to avoid. In this case, Portland on this long
road trip here has a I guess frisky after what
we saw against the thunder Nets team, but not a
good Nets team. Meanwhile, Cleveland and Boston on the horizon
on the road, this is kind of a you know,
not a must win, there's no such thing at this
stage of the year, but I think it could have
that level of feel of importance for the Blazers going
(26:59):
into this one. But I want to ask you a
quick question on this play, John, So it opened to
two and a half Portland being favored on the road,
and now we're seeing plus one and a half's in
the market. Is this all the the Cam Thomas return.
What do you attribute the line movement to, because that's
pretty stuck.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
I would assume that's Thomas applying here. That's a pretty
big piece for Brooklyn, and I think that's probably worth
the swing of where you're getting it from.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
Yeah, well I'm gonna go Blazer's money line. May as well.
We're gonna chase it. Let's chase it. So here's what
we have, Brian shopping it around plus five ninety three
on Fandel with the Clippers, plus one plus five seventy
four on DraftKings with the Clippers, plus one and a
half just to function, John, And whether or not you
want that push protection.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
No, we don't need a push protection. We're gonna get
this thing done.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
There you go, five ninety three on FanDuel. That's the
people's parlay that we are getting after here tomorrow night.
Jonathan von tobl on Twitter at me JVT. He as
a host of VSENT Prime Time. John, Thanks so much, man,
we'll bug you again real soon.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Yeah please, you guys.
Speaker 3 (28:06):
Absolutely will step side, come on back check at show
plays and let you know. Obviously some more details with
this one as well. You see Santa Barbara's open things
up with a few minutes to go, which is wonderful.
Goucha Ducks Ducks got it done. Doesn't even win or lose,
(28:26):
doesn't matter just needed him to three goals, and they're
there one period to go, and we just got home
on Portland state as well, so that means we might have,
if my math is right, a plus two unit day.
I believe sounds nice. You know we're we're happy with that.
(28:48):
It's you know, I said to Brian, I am the
like I just escalations of jerk. I suppose because I I,
you know, I my straight killed the parlay down a
couple of units. I got hooked on my bank orll repair.
Brian's like, it makes you the ultimate you know that
you're the super jerk or whatever he called me. And
I said, well, and I you know, I pushed nas
(29:10):
red points rebounds versus just rebounds if rebounds ends up
coming home and points missus by a million. I'm the
just the dizenith, the jerkiest, the jerkist.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
What a day start calling you jack links over there
and yet.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
Still profitable in spite of me, so hell of a
job by the in spite of Adam Common. There's a
show drop there.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
You go.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
Tell me about these golfers. How how we looking Tomorrow?
We're gonna start, you know, not start because obviously it
won't be decided at like noon, but we're gonna be
uh plus two units before the craziness tomorrow.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
Should be uh so top sixty five and ties make
the cut. Here, our guys are all at least tied
for forty eighth or better. Glover was three under today,
Straco was four under, Clanton was four under, and Lowry
was five under. On that sixty five range right now
is right around like it's a two under or so,
So everybody's looking good. Just keep doing what you did
(30:12):
today and yeah, be a couple of units for us tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Yeah, they're saying projected cut right now is around five under,
so it depends on conditions. Are tomorrow s guys shoot
as well they did today?
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Okay, well hopefully they do. Obviously I do not yet
have my bank roll repair, just to circle back to
bring that up earlier. I just I'm not it's not
coming together the way I wanted to at the moment,
So that will be in addition to the action app
to Gambler with AK. But we have loaded in a
whole bunch of plays for tomorrow so far that you
can go and check out. Between Dan's bank roll Repair
(30:45):
and People's Parlay, multiple straits, all that good stuff and
obviously these golf plays that we are tracking, but you're
late to the party if you haven't invested in those
of yet. How's your We got to wrap in a moment,
but how's your Red Sox spring training buzz going?
Speaker 4 (31:00):
Cossus the GM over seven so far.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
Thoroughly man, it'll turn.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Yeah, sure, we'll see.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:09):
Tell you what, you wouldn't believe how many people are
texting me from outside of Boston and like, I'm investing
in your team. Love that team. Thanks to our guest
Dan Bryan, I'm Adam. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
You've been listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six p't eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your podcast.
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