Celtics Game 5 Embarrassment Sets Up Betting Questions for Thursday's Game 6

May 9, 2023: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guests Eric Lindquist (@ericlindquist) from Stokastic and RotoWire's AJ Scholz (@ajscholz24). Kaufman's hot following an embarrassing Game 5 loss for the Celtics, Lindquist helps the crew line up their bets for Game 6, plus a look at Wednesday's action, and Scholz offers betting strategies for the NHL playoffs. And, another successful People's Parlay!

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Now WRKO presents Boston's only nightly sportsbetting show, The Gambler, with Adam
Kaufman covering spreads, props, parleysand more. The Gambler starts now here's
Adam Kaufman. Oh my god,Oh why what are they doing? I

(00:30):
don't trust them. I don't likethem. They aren't fun to watch.
You certainly can't rely on them froma betting perspective. Every time you even
remotely believe for a second you knowwhat they're going to do, they let
you down. No urgency, noefforts until it's too late, backs against

(00:56):
the wall, no response, sluggishmental mistakes, complete and utter lack of
focus, no energy, no fight, no rhyme or reason for me to
explain it to you, or forthem to explain it to us when they

(01:17):
hit the podium in a matter ofminutes. Terrible. Boston Celtics embarrassed,
absolutely embarrassed tonight over at the Gardenby the Sixers in a pivotal of virtual
must win Game five of their conferencesemifinal series one fifteen, one oh three.
They lose the first quarter, theylose the second quarter, they lose

(01:38):
the third quarter. They finally geta little bit of an edge in the
fourth but way too late. It'sgarbage time. But that point in time,
you've got Sam houser In and MikeMuscala and Luke cornet In and Peyton
Pritchard. And maybe it could haveused Pritchard earlier. You know, you
brought him in the third quarter.Maybe actually let him touch the freaking basketball,
you know, Adam. I waslaughing when I heard Reggie Miller say

(02:00):
Joe Missoula needs an X factor.He's bringing Paydon Pritchard off the bench.
But you know what, they shouldhave given him more shots. They should
have let him shoot the ball inthe third quarter, because my god,
were they bad tonight. And Idon't want to hear Joe Missoula after this
game later talking about how he's happybecause you know they had the advantage in
three point attempts. You could nothave been happy with that performance from your

(02:20):
basketball team tonight. He's Dan Watkins. I'm Adam Kaufman. This is the
gambler with Adam Kaufman. Bad beats, probably all of them, if they
related to the Celtics tonight, I'msure a lot of people lost money.
We want to hear from you.Six one seven two six six six eight
six eight. Just incredible if youlisten to the show last night, or
you're listening to the podcast from lastnight, Joe, we had Julian Edelan,

(02:44):
We had Matt Lamarca on both alongwith the two of us. Very
confident, not overly cocky, notlike, oh my god, you gotta
bet the seven and a half pointspread, but certainly confident that the Celtics
were going to go out and sortof defend their honor. In a matter
of speaking, they were seconds away, Dan, seconds away from a three
one series lead going back home,an opportunity to close things out. Instead,

(03:07):
of course, they defecate all overthemselves to close out Game four,
lose that one and overtime, itgoes to Game five and they just come
out looking like crap. Jason Tatum, who by the end, pretty good
game, pretty good game for themost part. We kind of got the
Tatum game as things went along.You know, he had a great third
quarter again, really strong second half. Even in the second quarter he started

(03:28):
to come alive, but started oversix from the field, not unlike Steph
Curry last night when he went forwhat thirty one thirty two points, but
took thirty shots. Jason Tatum inthis one thirty six points, but he
took twenty seven shots. Again again, Jaylen Brown incredibly efficient nine of sixteen,
but in the second half of thisone disappears into the ether as it

(03:49):
relates to the offense. Something thatI said I was concerned about the other
day that almost I was almost pleasedby the fact that the Celtics were still
in Game four at halftime with JasonTatum being as bad he was and he
only had two points, is thatthey were getting something from the other guys,
the role players well tonight. Tatumfinally wakes up, finally looked around
and was like, oh crap,oh man, this is what we're actually

(04:12):
facing. We gotta our season mightbe on the line here and nobody else
around him did a thing. DerekWhite bad game seven points, only took
six shots, hit a couple.Marcus Smart he had fourteen points, but
it wasn't a great shooting night forhim. Most was from the free throw
line. Malcolm Brogden super quiet.How much did we talk last night about

(04:32):
that? Overprop Fourteen and a halfpoints for Malcolm Brogden. He had seven
on three of nine and Al Horford. I love Al, I really do,
and more often than not he's greatfor you. But in twenty five
minutes zero points, zero points,he went oh for seven from the field,
and every single one of those witha was a three point shot,

(04:55):
every single one of them. Hedidn't do things on the glass. He
only of the five rebounds. TheCeltics were getting killed on the glass throughout
this one. The final numbers fortynine to thirty six. You wouldn't even
believe me if I told you theoffensive rebounds were equal by the end of
it. It was just I recognizeif you watch the game, and I'm
sure you did if you're listening,I know Dan, did I know EJ.
Pacheck, our producer, Did youwatch this thing? This is not

(05:19):
the reason they lost. So I'mnot making an excuse. This is not
the reason they lost. But itwas so frustrating because it seemed like anytime
the Celtics, you know, itwas right there within reach. Who was
you know, single digit game,they had a chance. There was that
what six and a half minute stretchedfor the sixers where they couldn't buy a
bucket in the seas. They keptgetting the free throw line they're missing free

(05:40):
throws. They you know, fromthe free throw line tonight they missed nine
free throws, which is so beyondinexcusable. I can't even process the words
to string together a sentence. Butthey're on the verge, they're on the
cuss band of like, let's putit together. They can't make a run.
They can't make a run. Theynever even got in striking distance of
threatening the Sixers in this one.It was never uncomfortable for Philadelphia. Philly

(06:03):
was never, ever, ever,for one single second, worried about this
game slipping away the seas, neverchallenged. But what I was starting to
say was not an excuse was thefact that also, man, it was
like playing on those freaking high schoolcourts with those double rims, except they
were only on the Celtic side.Not a single shooters bounce for Boston and

(06:25):
this one and Philly. How manydid the Sixers get? And again,
that's I'm not saying that's the reasonthey won. They won for a zillion
other reasons that have already been outlinedthe first ten minutes of this show,
And it came down effort, enthusiasm, and efficiency and so many other things.
But Ah, how frustrating was itto see, you know, Marcus
Smart go in for a layup orMalcolm Broaddon go in for a layup and

(06:46):
it would roll out. Meanwhile,a like a three pointer from Tyres Maxie
would hit the side of the rim, bounce straight up and fall in.
It was just one of those nights, and I can't I can't believe.
I never mind the fact that,like so many of my bets are dad,
never mind the Celtics minus one anda half that I was considerably in
on as it relates to my bankroll that has blown up even if Boston

(07:10):
wins the series, putting that asidecompletely, I can't believe what we just
watched in terms of how inexcusable theplay was in this one. The fact
that there was just I said italready, Dan, there was no fight
from Boston and this at all,not from minute one, no fight none
at all. And the one thingthat we have not touched on yet from

(07:31):
this game, I thought, Joeland being showed why he was the MVP
tonight. He was dominant on bothsides of the floor. How many blocks
did he have? He had fourblocks in this one. Chasing down Jalen
Brown. I thought that said itall. I thought that just absolutely was
a perfect picture of this game tonight, that anytime the Celtics might have started
to get rolling a little bit.Nope, Philly just took it right from
him. Chris forrestburg a NBC SportsBoston, he tweeted a little while ago,

(07:56):
lack of urgency has plagued the Celtics. Now the season's on the brink.
Could have gotten this series started early, lost at home to the Hawks,
let Harden get hot, fumbled awayGame one, crumbled at the end
of Game four, no energy atthe start of Game five. Just excusable.
Will they fight for their season?And Dan, I have no idea
how to answer that question. We'rein the same exact spot we were in
last year, right, second roundseries. You're down three to two,

(08:20):
heading on the road. You gottawin two games to advance, so we'll
see what happens. I just don'tremember, you know, a prisoner of
the moment, right, I don'tremember when they found themselves in that situation,
them just looking so sluggish and outof sorts and disinterested. Yeah,
you know, it was like hearingJulius Randall after that lost down three one

(08:41):
to the eat last night. Reasonhe actually I can't believe he said the
words they want it more. Youdon't say that, but you don't say
that, you feel it, youdon't verbalize, you don't say that to
the universe. Man, Oh mygod, you don't. You don't say
that as a professional athlete. Justunbelieve. And it's what it feels like
watching this team. It just feelslike the Sixers simply want it more because

(09:07):
this isn't that, this isn't thisisn't just Philadelphia is out playing Boston.
That I could it would be unfortunate, but it's one of those like I
could live with that they are outworking Boston in every area there is to
outwork them, and a certain pointin time, I'm really not like,

(09:28):
I'm not a big blame it onthe coach fire the coach guy coach would
call it time outs. Is hethe right guy to lead this team?
That I think coaching in the NBA, when you have a contender, when
you have a contending team, whenyou have a super talented team, certainly
any of the teams that are remainingin the NBA playoffs right now, I
think coaching is vastly overrated. Ireally do. I think, you know,
I'm not saying like I could dowhat you could do, what EJ

(09:52):
could do it, but I dothink it's one of those things where head
coaching matters a lot more if you'rea mediocre team, you're middle of the
pack, or even if you're rebuilding, you're down at the bottom.
You know, draft picks all that. You know, then you need to
you're forming a program, you're guidingthe ship. You're managing, you know,
as you get bigger, as youget better, you know, Doc
rivers with the with the new BigThree era. You know, back in

(10:16):
the day, over a decade ago, you're managing egos, you're managing personalities
at that point in time, Andit does feel like and again, Joe
Massoula just gotten like an official headcoach, contract and extension. He's the
guy seemingly for years to come,unless all of a sudden the owners want
to dip into their wallets and payhim to go away. And I really
don't see that happening. He's arookie head coach who was thrust into a

(10:37):
difficult position. But it seems likeas an outsider, it seems like as
you watch these games. They're justnot hearing him. They are not hearing
him. It is not his fault, they're not executing. That comes down
to the players, But it justsome of the strategy, Like how do
you you were laughing about Reggie Millercommented on Prayton Peyton Pritchard. If you're

(10:58):
gonna put Peyton Pritchard in if you'relooking for a spark, Okay, I
mean I might have gone to Sam. How's everybody who cares? You want
to go to Peyton Pritchard. Goto Peyton Pritchard put the ball in his
hands. At least he literally didnot touch the basketball before he checked out.
So what's the point. You're notputting him in there for defense?

(11:18):
So what's the point. And itjust sort of seems like they don't collectively
basketball brass in terms of the coaching. We're not talking about management and basketball
operations and all that. That's anoffseason discussion, an offseason that could be
very interesting if in fact, theylose this series. Because I'm not so
sure Jaylen Brown, and I'm notsaying this is his fault, just in
terms of how the dominoes may fall, I'm not so sure Jaylen Brown's on

(11:41):
this team next year if they endup losing this series again. Conversation for
another day, But right now,right now, just the coaching staff,
this group, they don't seem likethey know how to get out of this.
They know how to motivate the players, they know how to tell them
about the urgency of this moment.They don't seem like they know what they're
doing. Dan, No, no, they don't. And I don't think

(12:01):
Joe Missoula was the problem tonight.It was all on the players. This
is all on the players for tonight. You got to show up in Jason
Tatum. We've got back to backgames now, Adam, he's what over
ten combined in games four. InGame five, in the first quarter,
he's got to have a big firstquarter Thursday night in Game six that the
Celts want to keep their season alive. Early lines are out Thursday seven thirty
Eastern Tips Celtics in Philadelphia one anda half point favorites. Can't believe that,

(12:26):
Billy cannot believe that. I havea feeling that might be a little
closer to a pickum by the timewe get off the air tonight. Well,
at least there's this Dan the overhitit did. They've been right on
with that two fourteen all series long. It's been right it's been straddling that
line the entire series. And youknow what else, The Red Sox overhit

(12:48):
it did. It did, Butthe Red Sox got their own issues,
Red Sox red Socks overhead. Ican't believe for the amount that I talk
about, how how pendable that isa Red Sox over we're talking about total
over not purely team total, butthe overall game. For the amount that
I talk on this show about howreliable that bet is, I can't believe.

(13:11):
I don't put half my bank rollon it every single because they're starters
are just so bad. And Ithink we found out who the odd man
out is in that rotation when JamesPaxton gets back this weekend. Get to
that a little bit later on.We're going to step aside. When we
come back, we will be joinedby Eric Lindquist from Stochastic as well as
Odd Shopper. He's going to lendsome of his basketball expertise, though he
can talk a little bit of everything, so we'll see if we feel like

(13:33):
mixing anything else in. In thesecond hour of this show, we will
be joined by A. J.Scholz from Rhoda Wire. Of course,
we had his colleague and our buddy, Nick whylanon last week. AJ will
join us, and naturally in partby the fact that you know, we'll
be live, sweat and hockey,because there is a big hockey game going
on right now. Hurricanes, bythe way, decimated the Devil's earlier overhitting

(13:56):
that one. Carolina able to takea three one series lead in that second
round set six one victory behind fivesecond period goals, Stars and kracking.
Part of our big people's parlay.We're chasing the over, We're chasing a
Dallas win. What else do wewhat's our third leg of Denver covering the
spread? Yep, so over fiveand a half. I think we got

(14:16):
a lot to keep an eye on. See if that ends up hitting yet
again. But like I said,we will break. When we come back,
Eric Lindquist, we'll join us.We'll get into this basketball game a
little bit more, a little bitmore from a betting perspective as well,
and also keep an eye on whatis going on between the Nuggets and Sons
out there in Denver. This isthe gambler with Adam Kaufman sick and tired

(14:37):
of old sports talk and want toget right into the action The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman, as you covered,call us now with six one seven two
six six six eight six eight.That's six one seven two six six six
eight six eight. The Gambler withAdam Kaufman will be right back after this
on wr KO live lines, locksand long Shots. Now back to Boston's

(15:03):
only nightly betting show, The Gamblerwith Adam Coffman on six eighty w r
KO streaming live on the iHeartRadio app, or tell your smart speaker to play
w r KO on iHeartRadio. Idon't even want to be killing this right

(15:24):
now. I love this show,Dan, I love it, I really
do. But I'm so upset.I'm so upset. It's therapeutic. It's
therapeutic. Let it out, isit? Is it? Because I don't
know. All I have to lookforward to in my life is watching Ted
Lasso before I go to bed.That's that's not even that good. That's
disappointing too. It's it's all Ihave. It's all I have. Right
now, Let's go, let's goto the guest live. Let's bring in

(15:46):
Eric lind Quest, my good friendfrom Stochastic odd Shopper as well. He
works with our buddy Aton, whowas on with us last week. Covers
NFL, MLBPGA, does Lindy's Leans, but of course he also covers basketball,
and we've got him here to talka little NBA for the next couple
of segments, and Lyndy, well, it's good to have you, buddy.
I guess if I had any questionrelating to the Celtics and six Ers

(16:07):
to begin things tonight, it wouldprobably be what the hell? Yeah,
it's a good way to start it. Hello, friend, I can't believe
what we just witnessed. I'll behonest. I was on Philadelphia plus seven
and a half. Don't hurt me, but good. It was one of
those happy, happy for you.Yeah. I hear the excitement in both
of your voices. So that's that'sgood to know. I don't know what

(16:32):
to say. It was nice.I heard at the very end you guys
were talking about Joe Mazuela. Thiswas not on him at all. This
was on the collective team that is, you know, bargained talked them their
way into being forward with Jaln Brownsaying he's our guy, we want him.
You gotta show up in certain spots. And I gotta say, if
you had a Kevin Durant and JaylenBrown trade sitting before you at any point,

(16:57):
how do Boston fans feel about that? In hindsight? Don't do that
to me right now. Don't dothat. I don't do that. It
feels like a good segue is everything, but it's it's such a it's such
a wild I mean, do youknow who led the Celtics and plus minus
today? I do only because it'sin front of me. But I'll let

(17:18):
you break that to the world.Peyton Pritchard, probably Peyton Pritcher got to
there. Please address him by hisby his correct name, the X factor,
Peyton by his correct name. LonnieWalker Like, yeah, yeah,
I got done recording and I turnedon the third quarter and I was like,
is Prichard closing the third quarter?What's happening right now? I knew
things were not a good place fromthat point on, but twelve minutes or

(17:42):
what nine minutes, we had totalof Peyton Pritchard plus fourteen and plus minus
every starter for the Celtics minus fifteenor worse. I mean, you're just
you're going to run into those kindof games when you have MVP Joel Embiid
actually playing like MVP Joel Embiad,which you didn't have for the last two
games. Really, he looked healthyto me. Eric, Let's cut to

(18:03):
the chase, because what's done isdone. Everybody's miserable about it other than
you, who won your plus sevenand a half bet. Good for you
as you look ahead to Thursday,though, because as I said, lines
are out, Celtics are still despitelooking absolutely putrid in this one and really
never even in this game from theopening tip, they are favorites in Philadelphia

(18:26):
in game six, in a positionbacks against the wall to fight for their
season, they're one and a halfpoint favorites. Philly is even plus money
on the money line. The overunder estate consistent two fourteen and a half.
As I'm looking at it right now, what is your approach to betting
this game? It's interesting because youcan get the one and a half on
the Philly side, But I mean, why wouldn't you, just if you're

(18:47):
going to be entertaining Philadelphia at thispoint in time, take the plus one
or two I think is the bestavailable number. That I'm looking at on
odd shopper that's over at that rivers. You could be looking at bet MGM
plus one hundred hanging the board thereas well. I think if you're going
to Sixers side, if you're backingthe Sixers, I already have a series
ticket for them that I ended updoing coming into it for them to make

(19:08):
the NBA Finals plus seven hundred.Celtics were sitting around plus two hundred.
I think you just probably go towardsthe money line there. I gotta think
this line moves a little bit,though. I gotta think you're better off
betting Philly now you're better off waitingto bet Boston and too closer to tip.
Help me make some money back?If I'm just hypothetically someone who's heavily
invested in the bed that has alreadylost, like the Celtics minus one and

(19:32):
a half games in this series,how do I hedge? How do I
earn back some income? Here?You ask your wife for chores around the
house. I think you throw thatin there. Do you say, honey,
yes, yes, ma'am, no, ma'am, and then I alread
probably do that. Ohll, goodfor you. I was gonna say I'm
learning the tricks of the trade nearlyyear two for me, but I feel

(19:56):
as though it's you don't ever wantto be like chasing back, trying to
hedge back something, or hedging backsomething that's already a loser at this point
in time. I think what you'rebetter off doing is you're better off being
patient, letting everybody else in themarket overreact, and if they do,
you fire away on the Celtics.And if that number moves to a plus
sign for the Celtics, I thinkthat that's more than that's more than okay

(20:18):
to fire it. I don't knowif that ends up happening as of right
now, but I don't think youreally want to be forcing anything with this
bet and Philly. This is aboutas close as it gets. I know
we've had some blowouts throughout this series. I know both teams have had some
Milwaukee games, whether it's a thirteenand a half point blown home loss by
the Celtics against Atlanta. We havePhiladelphia get ran out of the gym in
Philly themselves in Game three, Sothere's a lot of ways this game can

(20:42):
go. I think it's about asefficient as possible, probably staying away from
the game individually, unless you werelooking at dabbling with the seventy sixers right
now at plus money. If Iwas looking at series betting, I see
the Celtics at plus money naturally downthree two Celtics a plus money in this
series to come back and win obviouslydoing Dan Is he telling me to double
down? Is that what he's tellingme? I hate it entirely because you're

(21:07):
looking at plus seven and a half. You know that that line is coming
back for game seven, So there'sa middle there. There's a really solid
middle there where you could be firingthe Celtics. I don't hate that idea
as I'm plugging it in. Wehave tools at Odds Shopper that kind of
help you project out what's going tobe winning losing bets long term, and
it's really just what the market istelling you, comparing all the books around
the entire industry, and I thinkthat that's a pretty decent way to do

(21:30):
it, where if you want tostill be backing the Celtics here, get
the plus money and then no,you're able to headge it with a plus
seven plus seven and a half that'ssurely coming back if there is a game
seven. I like it if you'reconfident in the Celtics, which it's hard
to be confident in the Celtics,but if I have, I think they're
gonna win game six, so mineas well. I would be taking in

(21:51):
Game seven two, so might aswell do that. Yeah, I also
thought it was going to be acomfortable winning Game five, so did I?
In fact, you know, we'refor it? Yeah, yea sports
exactly, you know, in thesame way that I's It's just kind of
funny this, this is it.There's bias here. Obviously, this is
a Boston show. We are Celticsfans, and you tell yourself a story.

(22:11):
We take those walks Eric down NarrativeStreet and and it's sort of like,
you know, how are they goingto let me down next? And
what I mean by that is Ithought they would win, you know,
game four, go up three toone and lose Game five. Well,
instead they lost, so a serieswas tied. So it was like,
oh, they're definitely gonna bounce backand win game five. You know,

(22:32):
then they'll probably lose Game six,but now of course they've lost Game five
backs against the wall up, they'redefinitely gonna win Game six and force a
Game seven. This is what wedo. Yeah, I for me,
the major X factor for this entireseries. It always was and still will
be Al Horford. You ran intoabout as bad of an Al Horford game

(22:52):
as you possibly could in Game five, coming off a Game four where he
was your MVP, at least defensively, even in a lost there. He
could not have looked better on thedefensive end if he's going to go over
seven from three. And I sawthat press conference clip I think everybody did,
where Al Horford was kind of offendedthat he, oh, how dare
somebody not know that he shoots fortytwo forty four percent from three? Well,

(23:14):
oper seven in a must win spothere like a Game five. That's
about as bad as it gets.So Al Horford needs to go back to
Philly do some of the things defensivelythat we saw in Game four, get
back to just knocking down open shots, because there were so many opportunities where
they could have trimmed the gap,closed it down. And it seemed in
the same way that Marcus Smart missedsome of those game winning shots you know

(23:34):
at the end of game for itseemed like Al Horford had all of these
must make type situations where Celtics couldhave gone on a run over seven from
three. That was kind of thenail on the coffin. We have Eric
Lindquist from Odd Shopper and Stochastic withus. Dan Watkins is here. I
am Adam Kaufman, Linda. Iwant to tell you before we branch into
a little bit of what else isgoing on outside of the Celtics. This

(23:56):
will be therapy for all of usto just talk about things that are not
BOSS for a little while. Ialso want to put this in the back
of your head because I am goingto revisit it before we let you go.
At the end of the segment,which is this, we do a
little thing on this show called thePeople's Parlay, which has at least a
week plus in. We're still trackingtoday's but it's been pretty successful. I

(24:17):
know you guys do something similar overan Odd Shopper. But the way this
works is I will pick a leg, Dan will pick a leg. You
will offer us a leg, andthe only requirements are basically that you play
it. You could invest any amountof money into it, you could use
whichever book you prefer. That istotally up to you, but you do
have to play the parlay and offerus a leg a little bit later on

(24:38):
in the segment. Does that workfor you? Sounds great? I figured
you're a team player. Tell meyou do to two series, Denver and
Phoenix, And like I said,Denver's cruising right now. A lot can
happen when you've got Devin Booker andwhen you've got Kevin Durant and that supporting
cast as well. Though, youknow, I do think more highly of

(24:59):
Denver, and I'm not at allsurprise that the Nuggets have come out with
the start that they have. It'sthe start that I expected the Celtics to
come out with. Is Denver ultimatelyyour pick in this series? You know
it would? Would you have answeredyes coming into it before you knew that
the Nuggets were as ahead as theyare early. I'll be honest, this
is probably the series that I've hadthe most difficult time trying to figure out

(25:21):
what to do with. Just fromindividual game to game, yokes can't play
much better. Jamal Murray, itseems like, I mean, until tonight
when Michael Porter Junior took over,it seems like he's been the catalyst for
all things good for Denver throughout theplayoffs. We saw that going way back
to the bubble and then not havinghim along for the ride the last two
years is obviously affected Denver. ButNicola Yokis you just get such consistency out

(25:45):
of him, and then from theDevin Booker and Kevin duranside, I will
say, shooting variants is just sucha massive thing. And I ended up
shorting both of them tonight purely becauseyou can't play much better than what you
saw them play in Phoenix of gamesthree and four. Yet expect that to
come down to earth a little bit. And when you throw out garbage starting
lineups or when you start playing TJ. Warren Terrence Ross for massive minutes,

(26:08):
what happens eventually is the luster goesaway and Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray,
those kind of guys, the betterunit there for Denver kind of takes over.
So I would slightly be going towardsDenver, but it's so hard for
me to pull the trigger betting againto Kevin Durant anytime that in mind,
could I talk you into live bettingthis one. I mean, I'm looking
at plus four twenty on the Sunsto come back and win this game just

(26:29):
as an example. Yeah, forme, I definitely think, I mean,
Michael Porter Junior shooting get out ofthe gym and you look at For
me, one of the most importantparts of just live betting anything is just
paying attention to three point variants.Gray now one for five Phoenix Suns shooting
twenty percent from three and Denver fivefor ten fifty percent from three. You've
got to think that overall long samplesize of three more quarters of basketball,

(26:52):
those kind of even themselves out.I would bring Phoenix closer into play.
So I kind of like that play. I see it at plus fourth already.
Now I think I'm gonna throw afew bucks on it just for giggles.
Just it's it's it's like an anytimehome run. You know, we're
we're calling our shot right, Well, we'll see what ends up happening.
Uh. And I don't see anyreally intriguing you know, live player props

(27:14):
or anything, but we can keepan eye on that. Yeah, those
those ones are tough to get ahandle on because I mean, if you
don't have the projection. Our friendJosh Inglman over its stochastic is this amazing
thing that he's been doing on Twitter, where he's live projecting fantasy outcomes point
outcomes for both sides throughout the playoffs. If you're looking for a good follow
in that regard, go to JoshEngleman E N G L E M A.

(27:36):
N Over on Twitter. It's reallycool to kind of watch the live
updates. He's doing it at halftimeof every single game, talking about the
projections, and I find it tobe quite fascinating. I'll be honest,
I can't believe he's staying up thatlate at night. He enjoys all of
the finer things in North Carolina.Friend, that is that is not how
he is wired. He is anearly to bed gentleman. So good good

(27:59):
on him for keeping things lively andhelping out the people on Twitter free of
charge. And you're a company man, so I appreciate that too. Looking
ahead to what is going on tomorrow, Nicks are somehow favorites at home,
even though it looks like when youwatch them they've completely given up. They
are Nick's four point favorites against Miamiin this game to continue their season.

(28:19):
How do you expect that one toplay out? I really just I think
you have to be looking at theknick side on this one at Miami.
I can't believe how well they areplaying right now. Absent Victor Oladipo,
Absent Tyler Hero, basically putting Martininto major minutes, putting Kyle Lowry to
use. I mean, it iswild watching this Miami Heat team continue to

(28:41):
find ways to do it. It'salmost like coaching matters Eric Spoelstra about as
good as there is in the game. It's just tacticianing, finding ways to
be effective and just keeping these gamesin the half court where it seems as
though Miami's just had a leg upon New York constantly here. But I'd
like to see them with Jalen Brunson, just kind of create, try to

(29:03):
get some other pieces going early.It just Julius Randalls felt very uninvolved even
in the previous series into this one. It was nice to see a pulse
form there in Game four. Iwould be leaning towards the knick side of
this one, but it's not thecomfortable side to be on, that's for
sure. Yeah, you would begoing against the public, going against the
sharps. I'm looking at the draftingsports book, the visa numbers that are

(29:26):
out there, and of course along way to go between now and tip
off. But the plus one fortyfive on the money line on the DK
Sports Book for the heat that hasthree quarters of both the bets and the
handle, and the plus four Miamion the spread also a considerable edge as
compared to going on the Knick side. But over with the Lakers and Warriors,
the money would certainly support the Warriorscoming back and winning this game,

(29:48):
especially being at home and forcing anothergame in this series. Is that how
you think it will play out?Yeah, I'm on the Lakers again.
It's going to be a Lakers spotagain. For me, it feels like
I'm just fading the public down theentire line here. But yeah, Philadelphia
has been the side have been prettyfirmly on throughout that entire series, and
then the Lakers I've been firmly on. I find it astonishing how everybody talked

(30:12):
about getting all of this shooting Gangel, Russell, Leaked Beasley, and really
the main impetus for everything has justbeen bench players they had all along,
whether it was Austin Reeves being insertedinto a starting lineup towards the end of
the second half of the season intothe playoffs, and now you just have
this emergence of Lonnie Walker out ofthe middle of nowhere for a fourth quarter,

(30:33):
played himself into like rotation minutes inthe playoffs in a Game three where
it was already blown out. Whatan unbelievable job again coaching it might matter
a little bit, feel really goodabout this Laker side and Steve Kerr.
The jam Michael Green thing made sensefor a game two where you're trying to
mix it up a little bit.But I'm very confused how you get away

(30:55):
from Kavan Looney. Anybody who sawthat Sacramento series saw how disabled demonis Sabonis
wasn't the post both just trying toget shots up, trying to create for
other teammates. He disengaged him somuch at the basket, And why you
wouldn't want Looney and his presence outthere. I understand upping three point variants.
Could you generally do that when youdon't think you have the better basketball

(31:17):
team where you kind of surround itout and do you know the Golden State
Warrior thing and chucked thirty five fortythree as a game, But come on,
Looney was so effective he hasn't eclipsedsixteen minutes in the last three games,
and I understand Game two is partsickness, but come on, Looney,
you gotta get him out on thefloor because Anthony Davis, with how
effective he's been defensively, it's it'sso hard to imagine Golden State getting out

(31:38):
of this series winning three in arow. Lyndy people's parlay, Dan and
I will come up with our legslater in the show. I will text
them to you so that you canbe forced to play this parlay and hopefully
we can all sweat it together andit works out. But before I let
you go, what leg are youoffering us? I want to go right
to that Lakers plus seven and ahalf. I don't and that entirely.

(32:00):
I do think there's one number though, that is pretty intriguing from a player
props perspective for tomorrow. Depending onwhere you're looking, fourteen and a half
rebounds is the number for Anthony Davis. It's juiced on the under right around
twenty one thirty just about everywhere.I think that's just an absolute smash.
Anthony Davis played forty four minutes lastgame. But one thing I do think

(32:22):
Golden state's going to change, andyou've got to assume they're going to change
it. You gotta get Anthony Davisin the pick and roll. You have
to try to get them away fromthe basket. I understand yet zero blocks
last game, but fourteen and ahalf rebounds When you have long jumpers,
long rebounds, Anthony Davis hitting fifteenor more rebounds in a spot like this,
you also get those wonky game scriptswhere it is a seven and a

(32:44):
half point spread and there's a lotof room for this one to get away
from the Lakers for sure. Sounder fourteen and a half rebounds for Anthony
Davis noted written down. I willsupply you with picks a little bit later
on. My friend, thank youso much for hopping on. We will
bug you again very soon, Ipromise. Love it good to hear from
you again. My friend Eric Lindquistfrom Stochastic and Odd Shopper. We have

(33:06):
AJ Shoals from Rhoda Wire coming upin the next hour to talk hockey.
Dan and I will return. It'sthe Gambler with Adam Kaufman. It is
The Gambler with Astok. They're joinedby AJ Shoals from Rhoda wire. Second
period has come to a close inSeattle's second intermission and Dallas the overhead sure

(33:28):
five to one analys is in front, which means, folks, the people's
parlay. That's right, you gotone leg in the books and not just
that barring, as Dan said duringthe break, an epic collapse. We
will be cruising toward a second leg, and that means it will be up
to the Denver Nuggets covering the spread, to cover our arses and make sure

(33:50):
we hit a parlay as a teamas a show for the third time,
for the third time in a matterof only five shows. Yeah. No,
batting average is outdated, but that'sa pretty good batting average right there.
Not only just that you and Ia combined ten for ten. It's
up to the guests to not letus down, right, Yeah, that's
right. No pressure, aj nopressure, Yeah, I know. Right.

(34:15):
Last time we talked hockey, ourguest when anytime goal scorer, So
just a little advice, don't dothat. Yeah, So we had we
had Ulric on, you know,moose. Ulric was on with us and
uh and and got stupid, gotfancy and picked a rupee. Hints anytime
goal as opposed to just going withlike his over shots proper or something like

(34:36):
that, you know, trying toshow off and ends up getting the losing
leg that night. I mean,it's hard to argue with that play.
Uh, you know, with howgood Hints has been. But yeah,
I probably would have probably would havelooked at the over on the shots on
goal. Um. But he yeah, we'll see, we'll see. Well,

(35:00):
we'll get a thought from you ina little bit on our people's parlay.
We already heard from Eric Lindquist earlierwith his prop will offer that to
uh everybody in a little bit aswell. But as we look ahead to
tomorrow, like I said, Iguess to the music of Bruins fans ears
if you have to deal with yourteam being out, is the fact that
the Panthers are absolutely wiping the floorwith the Toronto maple Leafs who you know

(35:25):
now Florida, you know on thegoal line of course plus one and a
half in that game tomorrow, thatis where almost ninety percent of the handle
has gone. About eighty percent ofthe bets, uh, the over under
is pretty split for both games.As a matter of fact, tomorrow,
there's no real betting conviction on eitherside. But obviously Florida is the favorite
and Edmonton is an overwhelming favorite againstVegas in that one, and uh,

(35:51):
you know, trying to, Iguess, make that series a little bit
more interesting, quite frankly, becauseyou know Vegas is in position to take
a three one lead. So AJ, you tell me, how are you
betting these games tomorrow? Well,I'll start with the Toronto Florida game.
I think you have to do oneof two things. You either like stack

(36:14):
the money line on Florida and theunder, or you gotta take money line
on Toronto and the over, becauseif they're gonna win, it's gonna be
because they score a lot of goalsand get this offense going. You know,
they've both all three games. Toronto'sonly scored two goals. They haven't
been able to get you know,past Sir Gay Barbrowski, he's been really

(36:36):
solid since kicking back over as Florida'syou know, playoff net minor here.
So I think you go one ofthe other. Personally, I would go
Florida on the money line comes inat plus one oh five. Right now,
I know they're on the road.I know it's a game for that's
a tough spot for the Panthers towin, but they have looked really,
really good, and so I thinkyou take that and the under together to

(37:00):
kind of double down on that betin the other game. For me,
I think you stick, you know, don't don't get too cute with this
one. Um, you get aton of value on Vegas, but this
is this is Edmonton. They've gotsome of the best goal scorers and point
producers in the EU. I honestlywould just maybe avoid taking a result in

(37:21):
this one and just look at thetotal. You can go over seven plus
one ten, you could even considerI think moving to over seven and a
half. I know that it's ahuge line to get over, um,
you know once once we get thoseodds, but um, I think this
will be a high scoring game.We're not going to get a ton of
goaltending out of out of the Oilers. We've seen that. Um there's some

(37:43):
questions over in Vegas as well.They've got Lourent Brusois dealing with that injury.
So now possibly going with Aiden Hill, maybe Jonathan Quick depending on Brushoid's
status. So I just stick withthe over in that one instead of a
result. AJ So I'm looking atthe odd player props and anytime goal scorers
in this first game tomorrow night,the Toronto Florida game. Florida has done

(38:05):
an incredible job, just absolutely stonewallingToronto's big four of Matthews to Barrows,
Knee, Lander and Marner. Allthese guys have decent odds tomorrow night.
Any any which would you play anyof these guys to score a goal tomorrow?
I mean, somebody is going toget a couple for them, but
I'm not real confident on that sideside of the ice there. I'm just

(38:29):
you know, I'd rather almost lookat maybe looking for a point prop for
for Brandon Montors where you can getout of him right now to just get
a point. The goal scorers aren'tjumping out to me, not a ton
of value right now. I'm ontour. It's minus one seventy five to get

(38:49):
at least a point in that one. Maybe you look at the power play
points, but yeah, for me, I'm just not sold on who's going
to score for the least now.They haven't had as you said they you
know, they've shut down those topguys, so I think I would avoid
those right now. Do you havea favorite play tomorrow. If you know
we're thinking about the show parlaying andall of that, I'm putting you on

(39:10):
the spot. Obviously, you knowyou don't have haven't had a lot of
time to do research, But doyou have something in mind? Well,
I you know, just looking atit real quick. Like I said,
I like Brandon Montor to get apoint, but there's not a ton of
value on that. If you lookspecifically at assists for him, it comes

(39:30):
in at minus one twenty to getan assist. That's pretty good value for
a guy that's having a great postseason. I mean, you could look at
him as a goalscorer. It's it'snot outrageous. He's had a ton of
goals already in the postseason. It'splus three fifty value to get Brandon Montour
the defenseman there for Florida. Andyou know he's currently seeing tied for third

(39:53):
with Jack Hughes in postseason goals.So you know that that's a good option
there. There's a ton of valueon him to get another one. I
should mention too, it doesn't haveto be a prop if you just have
a favorite play in general. Sowhether it's you know something you already talked
about with those two games. Yeah, I mean, I think probably taking
outside of props, probably taking theover in that Vegas school Night Edmonton oiler

(40:17):
game, especially if bro Swab doesn'tplay, you know, you're getting a
cold Jonathan Quake or a cold AidenHill, who haven't you know, played
much recently. Obviously they came intothat last game and just bad netminding,
to be honest, coming out ofEdmonton. So I think the over and
that one's probably my favorite play acrossthe board tomorrow. AJ a lot of

(40:38):
great stuff. Hopefully you'll join usagain. I wish we were still talking
Bruins games, but they let usdown in a similar fashion to how it
looks like the Celtics are going todisappoint us if they don't find a way
to get their heads out of theircollective bottoms. But I appreciate you coming
on and I'll bug your co hostthere, Paul Bruno at some point too

(40:58):
good. All right? A.J. Scholtz from Rhoda Wire. Thanks
buddy, We'll talk to you againdown the line. We are going to
step aside. We will build outthe people's parlay on the other side.
In the final segment of the showbefore we put things to bed. Dan
Watkins is here. EJ Pacheco ourproducer. I am Adam Kaufman's The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman on w r KO. Any event about bad bets, You've

(41:21):
come to the right place, tellus about it. Call six one seven
two six six six eight six sixone seven two six six six eight six
eight, or if you're listening onthe iHeartRadio app, use the talkback button.
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman will beright back after this on WRKO.

(41:45):
Final segment of the night, TheGambler with Adam Kaufman. Dan Watkins is
here thanks to our guests, mostrecently AJ Sholz. Earlier on we had
Eric Lindquist, who started off ourpeople's parlay for the night, which again
we've he hit two legs for tonightshow and the Denver Nuggets. If they
continue to cruise, and right nowthey are up comfortably in this game.

(42:06):
They're up twenty on the Suns alittle more than midway through the third quarter.
I would like, just for thesake of some other prop bets that
I have, I would like forPhoenix to show a little life and make
this a game and then Denver stillcovers the spread, then maybe all areas
of my betting slips can be happy. We'll see. But right now,
Nuggets, more than doing their part, dan to close out a perfect People's

(42:28):
parlay once again. But what away to get this week going? Yeah,
two things here. So One,look at how a team, a
home team responds in game five afterdropping Game four and cruises to a win.
We'll let that go, leave thatto this side. And then two,
all right, we have a twentypoint leading our basketball play. We
have a four goal leading our hockeyplay. If we don't hit this People's

(42:49):
parlay tonight, I'm gonna be veryupset. What happened? Remind me what
happened last night? What happened lastnight? As far as our parlay me
last week? Yesterday was Monday.Yesterday was Monday, right, So right,
we didn't have a play for yes, you're right, Yeah, yeah,
okay, I'm doing this for thenext days. Me up. Sometimes
my mind is a fog, allright, So let's build this out for

(43:15):
tomorrow. You're right, Yeah,we don't get to assess it on Fridays
after our Thursday picks. Now,So Eric Link was provided for us Anthony
Davis under fourteen and a half rebounds. So added that to my slip.
What do you have my ar right? So I love that there's so much
day baseball tomorrow because one there's daybetting. Two, I get a chance

(43:36):
to just completely take a flamethrower toour parlay before we even get into work
tomorrow. So I'm gonna go withthe Detroit Tigers money line at plus one
ten. Eddie Rodriguez is on thebump against the Guardians tomorrow. He's been
pitching very well this season. He'sgot an e rara under two. He's
won his past few starts. TheGuardians have Peyton Battonfield on the mound,
who he did pitch well against theTwins in his last start, but the

(43:59):
Guardians have law every single time hehas pitched this season. So I'm taking
Detroit on the road to bounce backand get a win tomorrow after getting shut
out today by Cleveland. All right, I'm still thinking, but what I
do? I want to do?This? Do I want? I'm looking
at baseball too, just I mean, we could do props for basketball and

(44:22):
track all that stuff as we go. And I'll tell you there are some
good plays. I'm intrigued. Iwon't do it, but I'm intrigued by
if you wanted to look at itas a bonus bet out there or anyone.
Vegas and Edmonton over one and ahalf first period goals not bad.
That's a very intriguing play, andyou can get that at a pretty good

(44:43):
number. Andrew Wiggins under on hissix and a half rebound prop is intriguing
as well. What I think I'mgoing to do, though, I'm also
going to risk blowing this up beforethe show even starts. I hope that
doesn't happen, unless, well,you know what should I should I go
with the hockey prop that we cantrack as we're on because we have one
baseball, we have one basketball?Or do I also, well, we're

(45:05):
gonna have the Davis one as wego to tomorrow. That's true. That's
true. So I'm between two.I'm between two. Maybe it's a flip
a coin situation. It's the hockeyprop that I already offered, or I
am looking at the over I thinkit's over eight and a half nine,
depending on where you're looking in theWashington San Francisco game. Okay, so
let's Let's look who's pitching tomorrow onthat one or on the Wednesday whatever it

(45:30):
is Gray against Maniah. So SonnyGray has been lights, but no,
it's Jos. I agree. Sorry, we're on team. Yeah, okay,
that's Sean. Maniah has just beenterrible, right, it's I do
love me some over unders. Yeah. AJ gave us the over in the
Edmonton to the total over in theEdmonton Vegas game, So the first period

(45:52):
you would have to think that,you know, that would go hand in
hand. There, I'm gonna doit. I'm gonna that. That's that's
that's me, you know, becauseAJ is not technically part of the people's
parlay for tonight, so that's that'sme sort of sharing this with him.
I'm gonna do the first period totalover one and a half goals between Vegas

(46:12):
and Edmonton. All right, letme let me build this out so I
can see roughly what kind of oddswe are looking at as as a three
leg unit. Here, I gotplus four sixty eight on draft kings,
all right, and let me seefirst period total goals hit the over.
I'm looking at plus five oh eightright now where I am placing this,

(46:36):
So I am going to as Ido. I'm gonna put money down on
the wager. I'm gonna just forgiggles, try and cash in twice like
we're hopefully doing tonight. I'm gonnado my little round robin, throw some
money at that and click submit.There it's in. I hope it works.
I hope it works for everybody onceagain. So far so I am.

(47:00):
We're playing with fire, I knowright now, with with with the
way that that we're running at themoment. Yeah, yeah, tenant O
combined here on these people's parlays prettygood. That's doing much better than my
other place. You know, Iwas choking with you off here. How
do we ever lose money? Youand I? Yeah, the Celtics,
the Celtics and and the Mets.The Mets are dead to me in every

(47:21):
way imaginable. See, look atthis is what happened. The Mets are
yep, the Mets are. Webanned the Mets last week. You then
tried to take a player prop todayand he's hurt. Way to go.
See that's what happened. You're messingwith the game. Whatever that's that gets
voided out. I know, allMets, all Mets players, team doesn't
matter, mister met you can't beton the mascot. We're not betting on
missus Matt nothing. She's delightful,though. What is We only have a

(47:45):
few minutes left. But as youlook ahead to tomorrow, obviously you gave
a play you really like you includedin the parlay. But beyond that,
since we will not have an opportunityto dissect this stuff before we come on
air, only react to it.What are you going to be on early?
You think so? Clayton Kerr Showon the Mount on the Mount tomorrow
for LA. That's a one fortygame. I gotta pull up the line
there for that one. But obviouslyanytime Clayton Kershaw's on the Mount, I'm

(48:07):
looking at the Dodgers. Really likethe way he's been pitching so far this
season. He's five and two withthe two five three er race. Let's
pull up that that matchup here,and let's just see what the run line
is for LA tomorrow. Uh,minus one run line at minus one and
a half at minus one on five, I think I'll be all over that.
Lad Miley hasn't been great, andhe's been pretty good, but not
great for Milwaukee. So I likethe Dodgers, who have been disappointing,

(48:29):
but they seem to be kind ofcoming out of that funk now as we
get into May and the weather's warmingup, so I think again, I
won't do the stuff until tomorrow,but I'm thinking I will probably do a
Yankees Yankees raise, maybe even includethe Astros money line parlay. I'm a

(48:52):
sucker for a parlay, and allthose three those three teams are in really
good spots. It's it feels likea day for overs Man the White Sox
and Royals. You know, Ilove the over there Padres Twins can certainly
be talked into that raising, Oriolesabsolutely, Astro's Angels absolutely. Of course,
the Red Sox I've mentioned that.I mean, those are all those

(49:15):
ones that I mentioned are going tobe auto plays for me, and even
some run line bets as as justStraights. Yankees goes without saying. We
talked about that pretty much. Anyoneagainst Oakland is probably gonna be a run
line play. And then also Astros, who I mentioned on the money line,
real good position as far as therun line goes. Also a lot

(49:37):
of the money is let's see youon the Diamondbacks yeah, it's Meryl Kelly
on Wednesdays, Mets are frightening.Padres at at plus one and a half
is intriguing. So that's some ofthe stuff that I'm looking at right now.
Obviously the bets will be placed tomorrow, maybe even a couple before I

(49:58):
go to bed, But those aresome of the things that I'm in reague
buy. And I hope people arelistening to this show. I mean one
live primarily, but if you're notlive, if you're listening to the podcast,
I hope you're doing so before thebaseball starts, because again it's early
twelve thirty five first pitch for acouple of these games. Yeah, and
there's only what four night games.I think tomorrow night the Red Sox are
one of them. Will find outmore against who Atlanta starter is on Wednesday

(50:20):
night. But yeah, there's alot of day baseball. It's great.
And then the only other play Adamthat I'm looking at tomorrow is I might
go Edmonton Pokline tomorrow night. They'vebounced back every this whole entire NHL Playoffs
has just been bounced back after bounceback. It feels like he's just been
back and forth in every series,and just how these two teams have been
playing. I don't think Edmonton's gonnalay another egg at home against Vegas tomorrow

(50:42):
night. Super talented, explosive team, we know that, and I'm just
excited that tomorrow we've got two hockeygames and we've got two basketball games.
Obviously not the Celtics, though wewill look ahead a little bit to Game
six. In that one, we'lltalk about what's going on with the Socks,
maybe even do a little golf previewfor Thursday, depending on on how
things shake out with us our guestlineup. So there's there's a lot that

(51:05):
is always happening here on the gamblingan NFL scheduled day Thursday. Can't wait
for that either, Yeah, Ican't can't wait for the old lost,
Yes, I can't wait. Cannotwait. E e J Niners. Who's
the quarterback? He's not even gonnabe ready? Yeah, who's the quarterback?

(51:29):
Gonna be all right? That's ourproducer, e J. Pacheco.
I'm assuming that you can hear himas well, and that he's not just
in my year, But I guessI never really know because we're not in
the same room. Dan Watkins asalways here big part of this show.
Dan, I thank you, Ithink yes, AJ Sholes as well as
Eric Lindquist. I hope you checkout the podcast available all over the place.

(51:50):
You can get us on Apple,you can get us on Spotify,
Pandora, Spreaker, wherever you're findingus. We appreciate a rate review,
subscribe all that good stuff the listener. They're growing by the day. We're
brand new. We're in week two, about a week and a half into
this thing, and truly, Iam not just saying this. I'm having
the time in my life. Thisis an absolute blast, fun stuff show
to do, and I hope youguys out there listening are enjoying it as

(52:14):
well. So make sure you joinus ten to midnight Monday through Thursday,
which means we are coming back atyou in twenty two hours. I am
Adam Kaufman. It's The Gambler withAdam Kaufman. Have a great night.
You've been listening to The Gambler withAdam Kaufman on six eighty WRKO, Boston's
first and only nightly sports betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights from

(52:37):
ten to midnight. Listen on demand. Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast
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