February 26, 2025 • 38 mins
February 26, 2025: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guest Matt LaMarca (@mattlamarca) from Fantasy Life. Nuggets are short favorites in Milwaukee, Luka Doncic's props came back to Earth, and don't sleep on the Magic or Pelicans. LaMarca lays out his favorite plays for Thursday's light slate in the NBA.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly betting.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling to animal.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
How do you do that?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
But being good at.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman streaming live on the
iHeartRadio app Me a moment, subscribe to the podcast. Back
to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Third and final hour of The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
here on this Wednesday night, and we have saved.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
The best for last NBA talk.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
No.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
I thought I was gonna say our guest him too.
Matt Lamarca joins us from Fantasy Life. Get him on
Twitter at Matt Lamarca. It's true. He is one of
our original guests, Dan Watkins, and he's been on with
us many times. In fact, I looked it up. This
is appearance number seventeen night La Marca. But the crazy
thing is hasn't been on with us. I think since November,
(01:05):
really November. Yeah, so uh listen. If I could sing,
I would break out and do a little Charlie Pooth
whiz Khalifa. It's been a long time without you, my friend.
But here he is. Lamarca.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
How are you Bud, I'm good.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
Uh, Frankly, I just I needed a break from you guys,
honest not you.
Speaker 5 (01:26):
Dan.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
You're always a pleasure, but I was.
Speaker 6 (01:28):
Gonna say, I don't blame you.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
And sometimes I just got to get away from this guy.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Listen, Dan likes when I go on vacation too.
Speaker 6 (01:34):
You're not alone, So listen, I'll have to get you
on one of those shows. Yeah, Bryan and I hanging out.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
You guys canna have a party. It be wonderful, Lamarca.
So you're uh your Nicks the care of business tonight?
They didn't they won. They didn't cover. We had to
cover as a show play. That was disappointing because they
were covering basically the entire game, the nine to half
ten points and then wilted late when, as Brian deemed
(02:05):
tim earlier, No pod p decided to take over in
the second half. Paul George got hot, you know, at
too little, too late, because ultimately Jalen Brunson took over
in large part free throws, but he went ham there
in the final couple minutes of that game and stole
it back and got the five point win, a game
that I really thought the Knicks had to have after
(02:27):
back to back really blowouts at the hands of the
Celtics and the Cavaliers. I thought they'd win this thing
going away against a team that is just at this moment,
I guess, too proud to tank. But now these Sixers,
they just continue to lose. Paul George may as well
go back to podcasting. What'd you make of that contest
before we start to look toward tomorrow.
Speaker 4 (02:47):
Yeah, I mean, it wasn't the most impressive showing we've
seen from the Knicks all season, But there's really nothing
to game from the Knicks in these contests. Right Like
the Knicks are playing a substandard team in the NBA,
you expect them to win. Maybe they're not going to cover,
but they're gonna beat most of the non elite teams
(03:09):
in the league. The question about the Knicks is can
they go toe to toe with teams like Boston and Cleveland,
you know, and okay see in the West, And so
far the answer has been a definitive no. They cannot.
So until they show that they can, you know, stand
up to the best teams in basketball, it's hard to
(03:30):
get too excited about what kind of ceialing this team
provides heading into the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
All right, well, let's talk about two of the well,
one of the better teams in basketball and one that
people thought would be one of the better teams in basketball,
and that is the Nuggets at the Bucks tomorrow. We
have mostly two and a half's out there, Denver favored
on the road. There is a three on FanDuel if
you did want to look toward the Bucks side. In
terms of the injury reports for this game, we have
(04:00):
Nicole Jokic is expected to play, Jannis Tantakumpo probable with
that calf, also Aaron Gordon with a calf probable, Murray
knee probable. So we should largely see these teams at
full strength, with the very obvious exception of the fact
that Giannis is not quite you know, chains off Lee
(04:20):
shaff He's still on a little bit of a minute's restriction,
even though that does approach the you know load to
mid thirties, so he should be impactful in this game.
I would lean toward Denver in part because I just
think it's a better deeper team, but also I do
wonder if you know, game's tight, but Giannis is at
the limit, is he shackled back.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
How do you view this one?
Speaker 4 (04:44):
Yeah, this is a tough one for me. I mean,
Denver has played as well as anybody recently. You know,
they're nine and one over their last ten games, third
in the league in net rating over there over that
time frame, and they have I think solidified their standing
as their second best team in the West. You know,
OKC clear number one, but Denver has really moved to
(05:08):
the top of that secondary tier behind them. So I
think they're really good. But whenever they're away from home,
I do think that they are a little bit overvalued.
Right Like, playing in Denver, they have one of the
best home court advantages in the entire league. When they
(05:28):
move outside of that, it's not fully adjusted in the
numbers in my opinion. And you look at them this
season on the road as road favorites nine and twelve
against the spread. So I lean slightly towards Milwaukee, But
ultimately this one's probably going to be a stay away
from me.
Speaker 6 (05:47):
So next up on the Lukadancic Lebron James experiment, we
had to well, we stay in LA, but we're going
to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves tomorrow night. The Lakers
matt are favored four and a half five and a half,
depending on where you're looking here. I'm just looking at
points props. Right now, we got Lebron sitting at twenty
four and a half once again, where he's been consistently,
and he's been consistently getting over this number with Luca.
(06:09):
Luca's up to twenty seven and a half for tomorrow night,
Edwards at twenty six and a half. What do you
like in this game?
Speaker 4 (06:16):
Yeah, I kind of like the Lakers. I hate to
say it, but I'm buying this team. They have just
completely turned things around on the defensive end of the floor,
and that was always the biggest question mark with this team.
Right It makes zero sense that this team has improved
defensively since trading away Anthony Davis and bringing in Luka Doncic,
(06:39):
but that's kind of what the numbers are suggesting. And
I think them getting a little bit healthier getting back
guys like the eventage Jared Vanderbilt has helped, and they're
just playing harder on a nightly basis. So I like
what this Lakers team is doing right now. The Timberwolves
have been, you know, more of like an average team
for most of this. He's in there five and five
(07:01):
over their last ten games, So I lean towards the
Lakers here. I do kind of like Anthony Davis most
out of those guys you mentioned from a scoring perspective,
just because he's kind of the only guy in Minnesota
right now. Edwards, Yes, Anthony Edwards, So I lean towards
(07:22):
him if you I was to pick someone to go over,
but I kind of just want to ride out this
Lakers team and see how far they can ultimately take
this thing. If Luka Doncis can drag you know, Kyrie
Irving and you know PJ. Washington to the finals, you know,
it's kind of exciting to consider what he can do
(07:43):
with Lebron James, who you know, maybe is the greatest
basketball player.
Speaker 6 (07:46):
Rapper when it comes to Luca tomorrow night, this twenty
seven and a half, he's only gone over this one
time since joining LA Should should we be looking to
go under again here? Until he consistently starts getting up
around thirty points.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Each night against his old team.
Speaker 6 (08:00):
No, he finished in nineteen. He hasn't gotten over twenty.
He's only gotten over twenty one time in five games.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
Yeah, I think if you're if you want to play,
you know, the bullish Luca Hagle, you might be better
off going with a with a point rebounds assist or
even just betting him to the triple double or just
seems like you say, right right, he's been focused more on,
you know, being a distributor, hitting the glass, proving that
he's sort of a good teammate. I think you see
(08:27):
that a lot, you know, with guys who get get traded,
and there was such a you know, all all the
sort of hit pieces that came out from the Mavericks
about how out of shape he is and what kind
of lifestyle he leads like. He's kind of trying to
be a model citizen, I think, and that means hitting
the glass and making the right passes. And you know,
(08:50):
I think that's part of the reason why he has been,
you know, maybe a little bit disappointing as a scorer.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Rudy Gobert is for this game. One trend we've been
talking about a little bit since this ad trade, him
going out the door is attacking LA's presence in the
middle or lack thereof basically just being Jackson Hayes. You know,
I know, Luca's gotten rebounds Lebron gets rebounds, but they
don't have that true big anymore, really, and this might
(09:20):
just be one of those spots where you can't take advantage.
You don't have a Yokice or obviously a go bear,
but you do have nos Reed. Nine and a half
is the number? Would you like him at ten rebounds
or does that feel just a little bit high?
Speaker 4 (09:35):
I like all things nas Reid, and I am almost
insulted that you press the sit by saying like, oh,
maybe we can't take advantage of the Lakers on the interior.
Nos Reed is awesome man, and I have thoroughly enjoyed
watching him since he has moved into the starting lineup.
Like we know how talented he is one of the
(09:56):
more efficient players in basketball on a permanent basis, and
you know he's basically maintained that playing closer to thirty
five minutes a night. At this point, you look at
like his game like he's gone for at least twenty
two points in something like nine of his last eleven games,
he's had eleven boards and four of his last five.
(10:19):
So yeah, I think there are still plenty of opportunities
to play nasriv one way or another.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
All Right, so concern so Lamarko.
Speaker 6 (10:26):
Last week, I now foolishly gave out the Phoenix Suns
to get to forty one wins this season as a show.
Oh my goodness, just need them to go fifteen and
thirteen down the stretch here with all that talent. It
doesn't seem like they're going to be able to do
that as now. I need them, I think, to go
like fourteen and nine or something like that. It's just
been it's been awful for Phoenix and for me, and well, anyways,
(10:48):
the Suns are laying I think, what are they laying here?
Nine and six and a half, seven and a half
or seven depending on where you look. At home against
the Pelicans tomorrow night. Phoenix finally returns home after this
ridiculously long road trip that they were on around the
surrounding the All Star Break. Can they get it done
against the lowly Pelicans tomorrow?
Speaker 4 (11:07):
Well, I don't think you should feel too bad. And
I kind of got rug pulled by Phoenix two. I
was buying them at the start of the season and
then they what did they start the year like? Eton one?
And I felt smart right like, I was like, come on, guys,
this team was Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, Like, how
bad could they be? They've had a whole year to
(11:28):
get their act together, like this team is going to
be improved, and then all of a sudden things just
completely fell apart. So watching them now, I don't know
what they have left to play, Like they're just kind
of brooked in my opinion. So the Pelicans, like they're
(11:50):
not a terrible team when they have Zion Williamson available.
I mean, they're not good, but I don't know if
they deserve to be catching seven and a half here.
So I'll take the Pelicans. I mean they have won
a couple games in a row, granted, like it was
against the lowly Spurs without Victor Wembinamo, But are the
Suns that much better? I mean, they certainly haven't played
(12:12):
that way. They got hammered the other day by Toronto.
I want to say, like, it's it's just been all
ugly for Phoenix. So I can't imagine laying seven and
a half points with them against basically anyone at this point.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
That's what happens, guys, when when you invest in that
Kevin Durant Phoenix Sun's crypto currency, you get the rug.
Speaker 6 (12:30):
Pull I was actually gonna bring up though, I kind
of like Katie's points tomorrow night at twenty five and
a half. He's averaging close to twenty nine at home, sure.
Speaker 4 (12:38):
And he's been playing like forty minutes a game.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
So yeah, well that leaves us with.
Speaker 4 (12:46):
What was that, Lamarca, No, I was just saying it's
it's not I kind of agree with that, dude. I've
been more riding the Bradley Beal scoring over like. He
seems like he is all of a sudden back to
being a competent NBA scorer, and he's had a solid
stretch of games here. But certainly, I think, Devin, if
(13:08):
you want us to tell me that Kevin Durant is
going to score a lot of points like, it would
be pretty hard for me to argue against that.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
A couple of games still, Tackle Warriors, Magic Hornets, Mavericks.
We have definitely you know, saved the exciting ones for
the second segment here with lamarka people's parlay on the
way as well.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
We have Matt Lamark here with us. Some Fantasy Life
will build out a People's parlay for you for tomorrow
in just a little bit a couple more games to
touch on on the short Thursday slate. There are only
a handful Warriors and Magic as well as the Hornets
and Mavericks are still in front of us here. You know,
before we went to break Lamark, I was maybe a
(13:53):
little dismissive of these games. But the fact of the
matter is the Warriors who are coming into this one.
I'm looking at let's see six point favorites. There are
some five and a half's out there as well. In Orlando.
This is a team that really has been different since
Jimmy Butler has found his joy essentially in that trade
(14:14):
and leaving Miami because his life was so difficult there
under pat Riley and Eric Spolstra. Wins in six out
of seven, and many of those in blowout fashion. You know,
just beat the Hornets, who are atrocious, we'll talk about them,
by more than thirty points. Before that, beat the Mavericks,
who are on the other side of that Hornets game,
(14:35):
who are also bad, but that by almost thirty points,
took care of the Kings by more than twenty and
before that the Rockets, who are playing right now by seven,
had a couple of lopsided wins against the Bucks and
the Bulls in there as well. So yeah, the inconsistency
of the magic more or less of alternated wins and
losses throughout this month. I know people don't like backing
(14:58):
relatively heavy runs old favorites, but sort of feels like
Golden State or Stay Away, doesn't it.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
You really got a feel for Jimmy Butler. You know,
it's just incredibly difficult to be making fifty million a
year living in Miami. Like, you know, I don't blame
him for wanting to get out of there. It's gotta
be tough. But now, in all seriousness, don't underestimate how
good Jimmy Butler is at basketball when he wants to
(15:27):
be right, Like, think of some of the teams that
he has dragged on deep playoff runs. And you know,
similarly to like how we talked about with Luca, now
he's working with Steph Perry, who's one of the greatest
players of all times. So I do think that the
Warriors certainly like they are a bigger threat after making
(15:47):
that trade. I'm still not ready to say that they
are like a true contender. You know. Beating the Rockets
is nice, Eating the Bucks is nice. But they've got
to do a little bit more than that to prove
themselves to me. So, you know, particularly their last three
wins the Kings, the Mavericks, the Hornets, that does nothing
(16:09):
for me. I'm going to need to see a little
bit more. And I think this is actually a decent
opportunity to sell high on them. You know, Orlando embarrassing
lost in their last game against the Calvs. I think
that they will be focused and motivated for this one,
and I like the idea of taking them plus the.
Speaker 6 (16:30):
Points, and that brings us to the Hornets and the Mavericks,
the of I just wanted to look up the combined
points that New Orleans is lost by or Charlotte's lost
by the last two games of all of them, it's
like they have been getting blown out consistently by forty
plus points. Matt, does this continue tomorrow? This line's only
at nine and a half on some books.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
Not only at nine and a half for a Dallas
team that is just so banged up. I can't do it.
I can't lay it with Dallas. I don't want to
take it with New Orleans either. To be honest, this
game is just a stay away from me. Of epic proportions.
But you know, Alice, they don't have a single big
(17:13):
man on their roster really right now, right there's still
without their top three centers. Maybe they get PJ. Washington
Dwight Powell back, excuse me.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
PJ.
Speaker 4 (17:23):
Washington also questionable. So I don't know. I just really
want nothing to do this game. I don't want to
waste any brain power thinking about it.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Can't say I blame you, so that that brings us
then fellas to a people's parlay, And if we have
some time on the back end, maybe we can look
at some futures in general NBA thoughts. But let's build
out the parlay LAMARCA. We we will obviously start with you, you
being the guest, but before we do that, we'll give
people the data as we always do. And with you
(17:55):
on the people's parlay, three and seven is the parlay
which is certainly respectable profitable because these are not even
money plays. These are four, five, six to one, whatever
they may be, and your official plays are four and six.
What do you have for us tomorrow?
Speaker 4 (18:13):
It sounds like I'm the anchor on this team. If
we've got three parlay wins with UH and I've only
got four individual wins. You guys might might want to
look elsewhere.
Speaker 6 (18:24):
Well, uh hey, when you hate, you make them count.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
That's what matters here.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
Here's here's what Here's what I can tell you, Lamarca.
We we have jerk strokes on this show.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
We have the jerk category.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
If if you are the person who sinks the parlay,
we go two out of three, you know that person's
the Jerkka, you are a two time jerk. Okay, So
it's it's not like it's all your fault.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
I've been called a jerk many times. I can live
with two. I'm going to uh to the Pelicans. I'm
grabbing the seven and a half with them. I know
they're a bad team. I just think the Suns are
pretty much cooked. It's not like they've given up, they're
just not that good. So I think it's gonna be
(19:14):
tough for them to win by margin, even against the
team like the Pelicans. They've gotten healthier recently that with
Zion and Jose Alvarado is playing decent basketball. Tree Murphy
has quietly had a really nice season for New Orleans.
So I still think New Orleans has enough to keep
this game close. And I am going to grab the points.
Speaker 6 (19:35):
Okay, Dan College basketball guys, Let's go out west tomorrow night,
and we are going to lay six and a half
points with UCSB. You see, Santa Barbara. That is the
Gauchos at home taking on cal Poly. The model says
that this line should be closer to nine actually, so
we're getting almost a full possession of value here. According
to my rhythm model. When you look up historically when
(19:57):
these two teams match up, UCSB is actually on a
fifteen game winning streak against cal Poly heading into tomorrow nights.
Let's hope they keep taking care of business and win
this one by at least seven points tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Listen, guys, I don't know if this is the right play.
I know Lamarka isn't sold on it from when we
discussed it earlier. That being said, I'm going with my
gut a little bit. We preach that around here. Go
with your gut. My gut tells me the Denver Nuggets
are gonna get this done in Milwaukee. I considering the
money line minus one forty, but honestly, I'm gonna avoid
(20:32):
the juice. It's it's a tight spread. Obviously fanned up
winning by two. I'll be pissed, but I'm gonna take
Denver minus two and a half. That is the direction
I'm gonna go. This team is barring a surprise tomorrow.
Just reading the injury report we read it to you earlier.
This team's healthy. All Key Coggs will be out there
(20:54):
for Denver, and Lamarka talked about how well they're playing
there as hot as anybody else in the NBA right now,
say maybe the Detroit Pistons. And in addition to that,
you know Milwaukee is still just not quite right. And
again the its limit Janis minutes limit is you know,
should be of some level of concern as well. And
(21:15):
so you put those three together. Brian is shopping and around.
We have plus five ninety six on Caesar's at all
the numbers that we want slightly higher at FanDuel plus
six zero two, but that is with the Nuggets at
minus three the Pelicans at plus seven, So I think
Caesar's obviously is the place to go.
Speaker 6 (21:35):
Yeah, no need to get cued over six cents.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
So that's what we'll do for our parlay and hopefully
hit this thing beyond that, Lamarka, because we've got a
couple more minutes here. Anything that you are seeing out
of the All Star Break hasn't been very long obviously.
That I don't know is making you think any differently
about team that you could believe in as we get
(22:02):
close to the playoffs here, teams that you would consider
investing in. I know, there's we spent some time on
it earlier this week. There's the you know, Phil Jackson
gets the credit for it, but there's the forty twenty
rule where ninety percent of champions in the NBA going
back to nineteen eighty three have been part of the
forty twenty club, which, for those that don't know, is
(22:24):
win forty games before you lose twenty. There are three
teams that made the cut this year, those being the Celtics,
the Cavaliers, and the Thunder. That would tell you, historically speaking,
one of those three teams is almost certainly going to
win the title and everybody else is out. That said,
you're not finding value on those teams right now, So
where would you look.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
I disagree about the value proposition. I think the Cavs
are still a nice value target at you know, plus
seven hundred. You know you could have gotten them fifteen
to one, twenty to one earlier this season, but I
still don't think the gap between them and the Celtics
is tight enough. I don't disagree with the Celtics being
(23:05):
the favorite in the East, but I don't see them
as being that much more likely than Cleveland. Cleveland's really
really good guys, and it should shock no one if
they are able to beat Boston should those teams meet
in the Eastern Conference Finals, they will almost certainly have
home court advantage in that series. They are just a
(23:28):
really good team. They've gone through some, you know, tough
years the past few seasons, but I think that they
are good enough to get over the home this season.
And who knows what could happen with the Celtics from
an injury perspective, you are relying on Kristavs Sporzingis, who
is not the picture of health. And you know, frankly,
(23:48):
the Celtics ran good enough last year that they didn't
need Porzingis to win the championship with you know, sort
of how the how the schedule broke around them, they
didn't ever really have to face the team that was
in the same weight class as them. I think the
Calves are so I think, certainly, if you're looking at
(24:08):
those top three teams, Cleveland to me is the best
value of plus seven hundred. And if you wanted to go,
you know, further down the board, you know, maybe Minnesota
would float your boat at you know, sixty five to one.
They haven't been the same team this year, but they
still got Anthony Edwards. They got some good playoff experience
(24:30):
last year. And I do believe that the West is
a little bit more open than the East. Right Like
in the East, I would bet a lot of money
that either Boston or Cleveland will be the team that
advances in the West. You know, the thunder are really
really good, but they have never made it to the
(24:51):
Western Conference finals before. Typically you have to experience some
growing pains before you get over the hump. Maybe we
saw that last year when they lost to the Mavericks,
but it would not shock me if it took them
one more year before they were really able to sort
of break out. So I think if I was going
to be looking for a sleeper team, the West is
(25:13):
where I would be looking.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
Matt Lamarca again from Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life on Twitter
at Matt Lamarca and the man's work is not limited
to Fantasy life either. He is all over the place.
Make sure you check him out, including here on this show.
When he's kind enough to join us, we always enjoy it.
Speaker 4 (25:31):
My man absolutely looking forward to opening Day. Good luck
to your Red Sox, good luck to my Mets.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
There will be plenty of baseball talk with Matt Lamarca
in the future, and not as much betting on it
for me as I try and keep my composure. This
summer needed to be better than last summer.
Speaker 6 (25:49):
So I've actually like already started like talking like prepping
myself and being like, I'm gonna be restrained this summer.
I am going to take it easy and I'm just
gonna you know what I'm gonna I don't have to
make them any base in a given night.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
The biggest thing, and this is not like centric to baseball.
This is just a betting thing, and it applies to
so many people out there. Obviously is a universal betting thing.
But I've been thinking about it a lot lately because
my twenty twenty four went very well and my twenty
twenty five is off to a rocky start, and I
will spend like hours locked in my basement reading about
(26:23):
this stuff, researching, putting stuff together, and then you know,
sometimes you have a good day. Sometimes you you know,
just have wrongreads, and other days there's the in between
where kind of right read, wrong result, bad variants, all
of that stuff. But what kills me is and you
can't do this, this is just a psychological problem. But
what kills me is I'll sit there and I'll go
(26:43):
like God, not like, not only did I lose all
this money today in the whole spirit of like time
is money too, Like I paid for the opportunity effectively
to lose this money. And I start to think about,
you know, the all the summer hours spent, like I
could be outside shooting hoops with my kids instead of
(27:04):
you know, reading out like, no, I'm not losing all
this money on baseball this year, and even for that matter,
even if I do all right winning on baseball, like
my kids need their father, what am I doing with
my life?
Speaker 6 (27:17):
I was literally like, I'm gonna go, like make it
a point to like lay on the beach and not
have cell service so I can't look because so I
cannot look at baseball lines.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
I'm saying, man, good lines, though, Nate McKinnon as a
goal Yep.
Speaker 6 (27:31):
He's smashing all of his props tonight and I was
on just about all of them. So I'm very happy
with that right now.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
Good on you. What was the uh the goal line?
Speaker 6 (27:39):
Like one thirty five?
Speaker 3 (27:40):
Great?
Speaker 6 (27:41):
Yeah, nice little play? Two points was plus one fifteen
on that three or three and a half shots was
minus one twenty five. He's at five.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Yeah, I'll say to you, I'll say you what you
said to me the other day about SGA and and
laddering up? Where was this for show plays?
Speaker 3 (28:00):
You know? Going next?
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Like I gave one? He did? Yeah, I guess we
needed more. What can we say? Devin Masel look pretty good.
Harrison Barnes not so much. They're in the fourth quarter
there and just a quick little check and I know
we got a break. But where are we at with
shan gun rebounds? We need one more. We need one
(28:23):
more out of Shangun to cash the Dan Titus play
and make me a jerk. Hopefully it happens. That's a
plus money play as well. Nine minutes to go in
this one, so that's not the problem. The concern is
the blowout. They're up by about twenty five points. So
we need shan Gun to still have some opportunity in
this one. Try and get us there. He is not
on the floor right now. Hopefully at some point he
(28:44):
checks back in.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
It would be a shame to get hooked on that.
We'll come on back with more.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
Our thanks once again to Matt Lamarca as well as
of course Aj Scholz and Cody Mitchell before him. A
lot of great insights, a lot of show plays. Just
to check in on our show plays right now. Let's
see what's in, what's done? Arizona got the job done late,
little push to put him over the hump covered the fifteen,
so Dan's leg is in zoo bots we mentioned was
(29:15):
a sweat free first quarter cash for Chowdrey's choice Sammy Chowdrey,
yet another win. People's parlay is dead because the Knicks
faltered down the stretch. They still won, but did not
cover the ten. Shane Goun is in a worry spot
right now. We need one more rebound out of him,
and I'm just not sure if he's going to see
(29:35):
the floor again. Hopefully he does. A seventeen point game
though with seven minutes to go, so I am concerned.
Dan's bankrup repair is dead again, my straight with the
Knicks dead. As far as what's in progress, the Builder
group play that Dan had suggested, Colorado on the money line,
McKinnon with at least a point, looking great, about twelve
(29:57):
minutes to go in that one, Colorado up to nothing
and McKinnon, as we just talked about, has two points.
He is a goal and an assist. Harrison Barnes is
not doing what we need from needed four rebounds. He
has one, So go figure the ninety percent hit rate
the last ten games has is not looking good. So
(30:18):
my bank will repair that. Should cash not concerned about that.
We're just waiting on Houston here and that win should
come home, so we'll get that. And again so Shane
Gun is going to be significant to us that plus
one twelve if we can somehow get another rebound out
of him. And also the latest ad and that was
(30:39):
Oregon State minus three and a half. We added that
emphatically and right now good stuff up by eleven at
home against San Francisco with about five minutes to go
in the opening half. Long long way obviously to go
in this game, but at the moment.
Speaker 6 (30:53):
Good, yeah, definitely, and looking forward to adding some more too.
I know, we got a golf tournament this week weekend.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
We do, you know, we've not been you know, like
some some places are already looking ahead toward the Masters,
you know, forty ish days out and giving out insights
and picks and you know, ways to handicap things. It's
never too early, I guess for Golf's major, maybe we
should do some of the same. Maybe next week, but yeah,
(31:22):
this week we have the Cognizant Classic in the Palm
Beaches as it is termed down there in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
The purse is nearly ten million, so you know, don't
make light of this tournament. These guys are out there
chasing something for sure, as far as participants in this one,
(31:43):
because it's always a wonder what the name recognition is.
You know, you don't have some of the bigger names.
The favorite, for instance, is Shane Lowry at twenty to one.
Russell Henley and Sun jam right behind him, each twenty
two to one. Then you have Taylor Pendrith and Sepstruca
pardon me, Daniel Berger. All these guys are inside thirty
(32:05):
to one, but goes on from there. There is no
you know plus four point fifty Scottie Scheffler or plus
seven hundred Rory McElroy, that kind of thing that said,
there is opportunity to make money. And you guys are
certainly more golf guys than I am.
Speaker 3 (32:21):
Brian.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
You in particular, let's let's go to you because I
know you're you're thinking about making something show official.
Speaker 5 (32:26):
As it's more of like a bankroll repair kind of play.
And sure apologize for the podcast listeners as these guys
t off at six forty five and I don't know
if you can bet make the cut plays after the
tee off, but maybe the future of the is on Tuesdays.
But I'm going to take Stepstraca and Lucas Glover are
both to make the cut. Put those together plus one
oh four PJ Nationals is the kind of course where
(32:47):
you don't don't use driver a lot, and it's very
iron heavy approach play, and these guys are some of
the top approach players. Stepstrucker has already won the tournament
earlier this year. And when these guys don't have to
hit driver a lot, it benefits of their game. So
just to make the cut, those two guys plus one
O four and fandul.
Speaker 3 (33:02):
Okay, look and to see if we can put that
on the action app. That feels like a custom situation,
so in case we don't. You heard it here from
Brian and we'll be tracking it obviously, but Glover and
Straka to make the cut.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
So Brian.
Speaker 6 (33:18):
One of the big storylines coming into this one is
about the top amateur Luke Clinton and he can get
his PGA Tour membership card this week if he makes
the cut. He's from Florida, he grew up I think
like thirty miles from this golf course. Big time narrative
play here for him to make the cut is minus
one seventy four on fandel best price. Would you be
willing to lay that with Clanton this week or would
(33:40):
you just stay away?
Speaker 5 (33:41):
It's probably just either play it with someone like strac
or a Lowry to make the cut and so you
probably get like plus one ten plus one fifteen odds,
or you take him like a man know who's look
at his matchups. Maybe take him there tournament long matchup. Sure,
say something like that.
Speaker 6 (33:56):
Lowry Clanton both to make the cut is plus one
oh three and shame Lowry. By the way, guys, has
three straight top five finishes at this at this tournament.
Speaker 5 (34:04):
Yeah, so and he's the Favorite's that's a safe I would,
I would, I would look at.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
That right now.
Speaker 6 (34:08):
I'm gonna make that show official, Loo Lowry Clinton, let's
get let's go narrative and the favorite?
Speaker 3 (34:17):
So what are we doing here? What are we making
show officials.
Speaker 6 (34:20):
Shane Lowry and Luke Clinton to both make the cut.
And what's the U plus one O three on FanDuel? Okay,
all right, golf builders, folks, there you go. These will
both cash by Friday night, Adam, so you don't have
wait till Sunday.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Beautiful speaking my language, Uh, it looks like I didn't
even realize he had checked back in and I unless
he didn't and maybe there was a stack correction. I'm
not sure. I'm not paying very close attention to this
basketball game, but Sheng Goon has eleven rebounds on the
box score that I am looking at on ESPN. He's
(34:57):
not on the floor right now. It's a blowout. They
get the scrubs in nice, but he is listed at again. Yeah,
I'm checking CBS, I'm checking ESPN. What's crazy, too, is
that he has eleven rebounds. Yeah, nineteen minutes, all barely
played in this game, so make a jerk of me again.
But that's okay. Cash the plus money hit from Titus,
(35:20):
well done. We're gonna break when we come back. I
do want to take us down narrative street discuss one
more potential play that we have already brought up on
this show, but we have not invested in.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Will we should?
Speaker 2 (35:33):
We?
Speaker 3 (35:34):
Could? We stay tuned.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Tracking all these show plays obviously that we already mentioned,
and we have given out the usual half dozen to
start for tomorrow with a chowdery's choice to follow in
the morning when he texts me at like five am.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
So we'll get that thing posted.
Speaker 2 (35:53):
But Dan's bankroller repayers there mine is there both the
plus money Nuggets minus two and a half, my straight
Matt Marcu's Pelicans plus two and a half. You see
Santa Barbara from Dan minus six and a half, that
people's parlay best on Caesar's plus five sixty five? Do
we want a narrative street play the play that we
have discussed before attacking the Lakers with nas Reed. Lamarco
(36:17):
was offended when I suggested that nas Reed may not
be up for the challenge. His prop is nine and
a half nine and a half rebounds opposite the Lakers
tomorrow night and looking at as Lamarca said his last
five games where he is seen at minimum thirty three
minutes and sometimes up over forty, he has had eleven
(36:39):
plus rebounds in four out of five, with the lone
exception being eight. He has been a force, he has
been involved. He is a starter. Go bear is out?
Do we chase naz Reed tomorrow at double digit rebounds?
Speaker 6 (36:53):
It sounds like you want to.
Speaker 2 (36:54):
Well, I'm asking the triumvirent.
Speaker 6 (36:58):
I mean sure, I mean we've been going after this.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
We can sleep on it, so you know, we could
post it to the app tomorrow. Don't need to decide
right this minute.
Speaker 6 (37:06):
I mean we can probably talk about it more too
tomorrow night and than the first hour.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Great point as well.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Yeah, we get some late night NBA coming our way
tomorrow with just that one game Timberwolves and Lakers. It'll
be a ten to thirty contest. Again, busy night on
the ice. Tomorrow you get two ten o'clock games. And
we also in the world of college hoops with a
bunch of anonymous teams that we won't be talking about
a month from now. Let's see from nine thirty on one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
(37:37):
nine ten games.
Speaker 6 (37:39):
Yeah, Thursday, it's a last first game.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
Well, we're gonna have to line up a college guest
tomorrow night for that first hour. That is for sure.
It's gonna be a lot of fun. Thanks so much
everyone for hanging out here with us, for Mitchell, shoals
Lamarca and of course Dan and Brian.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
I'm Adam.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Check out the pod We'll see you.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
You've been listening to the Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six point eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (38:17):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
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Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly betting.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling to animal.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
How do you do that?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
But being good at.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman streaming live on the
iHeartRadio app Me a moment, subscribe to the podcast. Back
to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Third and final hour of The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
here on this Wednesday night, and we have saved.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
The best for last NBA talk.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
No.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
I thought I was gonna say our guest him too.
Matt Lamarca joins us from Fantasy Life. Get him on
Twitter at Matt Lamarca. It's true. He is one of
our original guests, Dan Watkins, and he's been on with
us many times. In fact, I looked it up. This
is appearance number seventeen night La Marca. But the crazy
thing is hasn't been on with us. I think since November,
(01:05):
really November. Yeah, so uh listen. If I could sing,
I would break out and do a little Charlie Pooth
whiz Khalifa. It's been a long time without you, my friend.
But here he is. Lamarca.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
How are you Bud, I'm good.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
Uh, Frankly, I just I needed a break from you guys,
honest not you.
Speaker 5 (01:26):
Dan.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
You're always a pleasure, but I was.
Speaker 6 (01:28):
Gonna say, I don't blame you.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
And sometimes I just got to get away from this guy.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Listen, Dan likes when I go on vacation too.
Speaker 6 (01:34):
You're not alone, So listen, I'll have to get you
on one of those shows. Yeah, Bryan and I hanging out.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
You guys canna have a party. It be wonderful, Lamarca.
So you're uh your Nicks the care of business tonight?
They didn't they won. They didn't cover. We had to
cover as a show play. That was disappointing because they
were covering basically the entire game, the nine to half
ten points and then wilted late when, as Brian deemed
(02:05):
tim earlier, No pod p decided to take over in
the second half. Paul George got hot, you know, at
too little, too late, because ultimately Jalen Brunson took over
in large part free throws, but he went ham there
in the final couple minutes of that game and stole
it back and got the five point win, a game
that I really thought the Knicks had to have after
(02:27):
back to back really blowouts at the hands of the
Celtics and the Cavaliers. I thought they'd win this thing
going away against a team that is just at this moment,
I guess, too proud to tank. But now these Sixers,
they just continue to lose. Paul George may as well
go back to podcasting. What'd you make of that contest
before we start to look toward tomorrow.
Speaker 4 (02:47):
Yeah, I mean, it wasn't the most impressive showing we've
seen from the Knicks all season, But there's really nothing
to game from the Knicks in these contests. Right Like
the Knicks are playing a substandard team in the NBA,
you expect them to win. Maybe they're not going to cover,
but they're gonna beat most of the non elite teams
(03:09):
in the league. The question about the Knicks is can
they go toe to toe with teams like Boston and Cleveland,
you know, and okay see in the West, And so
far the answer has been a definitive no. They cannot.
So until they show that they can, you know, stand
up to the best teams in basketball, it's hard to
(03:30):
get too excited about what kind of ceialing this team
provides heading into the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
All right, well, let's talk about two of the well,
one of the better teams in basketball and one that
people thought would be one of the better teams in basketball,
and that is the Nuggets at the Bucks tomorrow. We
have mostly two and a half's out there, Denver favored
on the road. There is a three on FanDuel if
you did want to look toward the Bucks side. In
terms of the injury reports for this game, we have
(04:00):
Nicole Jokic is expected to play, Jannis Tantakumpo probable with
that calf, also Aaron Gordon with a calf probable, Murray
knee probable. So we should largely see these teams at
full strength, with the very obvious exception of the fact
that Giannis is not quite you know, chains off Lee
(04:20):
shaff He's still on a little bit of a minute's restriction,
even though that does approach the you know load to
mid thirties, so he should be impactful in this game.
I would lean toward Denver in part because I just
think it's a better deeper team, but also I do
wonder if you know, game's tight, but Giannis is at
the limit, is he shackled back.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
How do you view this one?
Speaker 4 (04:44):
Yeah, this is a tough one for me. I mean,
Denver has played as well as anybody recently. You know,
they're nine and one over their last ten games, third
in the league in net rating over there over that
time frame, and they have I think solidified their standing
as their second best team in the West. You know,
OKC clear number one, but Denver has really moved to
(05:08):
the top of that secondary tier behind them. So I
think they're really good. But whenever they're away from home,
I do think that they are a little bit overvalued.
Right Like, playing in Denver, they have one of the
best home court advantages in the entire league. When they
(05:28):
move outside of that, it's not fully adjusted in the
numbers in my opinion. And you look at them this
season on the road as road favorites nine and twelve
against the spread. So I lean slightly towards Milwaukee, But
ultimately this one's probably going to be a stay away
from me.
Speaker 6 (05:47):
So next up on the Lukadancic Lebron James experiment, we
had to well, we stay in LA, but we're going
to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves tomorrow night. The Lakers
matt are favored four and a half five and a half,
depending on where you're looking here. I'm just looking at
points props. Right now, we got Lebron sitting at twenty
four and a half once again, where he's been consistently,
and he's been consistently getting over this number with Luca.
(06:09):
Luca's up to twenty seven and a half for tomorrow night,
Edwards at twenty six and a half. What do you
like in this game?
Speaker 4 (06:16):
Yeah, I kind of like the Lakers. I hate to
say it, but I'm buying this team. They have just
completely turned things around on the defensive end of the floor,
and that was always the biggest question mark with this team.
Right It makes zero sense that this team has improved
defensively since trading away Anthony Davis and bringing in Luka Doncic,
(06:39):
but that's kind of what the numbers are suggesting. And
I think them getting a little bit healthier getting back
guys like the eventage Jared Vanderbilt has helped, and they're
just playing harder on a nightly basis. So I like
what this Lakers team is doing right now. The Timberwolves
have been, you know, more of like an average team
for most of this. He's in there five and five
(07:01):
over their last ten games, So I lean towards the
Lakers here. I do kind of like Anthony Davis most
out of those guys you mentioned from a scoring perspective,
just because he's kind of the only guy in Minnesota
right now. Edwards, Yes, Anthony Edwards, So I lean towards
(07:22):
him if you I was to pick someone to go over,
but I kind of just want to ride out this
Lakers team and see how far they can ultimately take
this thing. If Luka Doncis can drag you know, Kyrie
Irving and you know PJ. Washington to the finals, you know,
it's kind of exciting to consider what he can do
(07:43):
with Lebron James, who you know, maybe is the greatest
basketball player.
Speaker 6 (07:46):
Rapper when it comes to Luca tomorrow night, this twenty
seven and a half, he's only gone over this one
time since joining LA Should should we be looking to
go under again here? Until he consistently starts getting up
around thirty points.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Each night against his old team.
Speaker 6 (08:00):
No, he finished in nineteen. He hasn't gotten over twenty.
He's only gotten over twenty one time in five games.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
Yeah, I think if you're if you want to play,
you know, the bullish Luca Hagle, you might be better
off going with a with a point rebounds assist or
even just betting him to the triple double or just
seems like you say, right right, he's been focused more on,
you know, being a distributor, hitting the glass, proving that
he's sort of a good teammate. I think you see
(08:27):
that a lot, you know, with guys who get get traded,
and there was such a you know, all all the
sort of hit pieces that came out from the Mavericks
about how out of shape he is and what kind
of lifestyle he leads like. He's kind of trying to
be a model citizen, I think, and that means hitting
the glass and making the right passes. And you know,
(08:50):
I think that's part of the reason why he has been,
you know, maybe a little bit disappointing as a scorer.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Rudy Gobert is for this game. One trend we've been
talking about a little bit since this ad trade, him
going out the door is attacking LA's presence in the
middle or lack thereof basically just being Jackson Hayes. You know,
I know, Luca's gotten rebounds Lebron gets rebounds, but they
don't have that true big anymore, really, and this might
(09:20):
just be one of those spots where you can't take advantage.
You don't have a Yokice or obviously a go bear,
but you do have nos Reed. Nine and a half
is the number? Would you like him at ten rebounds
or does that feel just a little bit high?
Speaker 4 (09:35):
I like all things nas Reid, and I am almost
insulted that you press the sit by saying like, oh,
maybe we can't take advantage of the Lakers on the interior.
Nos Reed is awesome man, and I have thoroughly enjoyed
watching him since he has moved into the starting lineup.
Like we know how talented he is one of the
(09:56):
more efficient players in basketball on a permanent basis, and
you know he's basically maintained that playing closer to thirty
five minutes a night. At this point, you look at
like his game like he's gone for at least twenty
two points in something like nine of his last eleven games,
he's had eleven boards and four of his last five.
(10:19):
So yeah, I think there are still plenty of opportunities
to play nasriv one way or another.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
All Right, so concern so Lamarko.
Speaker 6 (10:26):
Last week, I now foolishly gave out the Phoenix Suns
to get to forty one wins this season as a show.
Oh my goodness, just need them to go fifteen and
thirteen down the stretch here with all that talent. It
doesn't seem like they're going to be able to do
that as now. I need them, I think, to go
like fourteen and nine or something like that. It's just
been it's been awful for Phoenix and for me, and well, anyways,
(10:48):
the Suns are laying I think, what are they laying here?
Nine and six and a half, seven and a half
or seven depending on where you look. At home against
the Pelicans tomorrow night. Phoenix finally returns home after this
ridiculously long road trip that they were on around the
surrounding the All Star Break. Can they get it done
against the lowly Pelicans tomorrow?
Speaker 4 (11:07):
Well, I don't think you should feel too bad. And
I kind of got rug pulled by Phoenix two. I
was buying them at the start of the season and
then they what did they start the year like? Eton one?
And I felt smart right like, I was like, come on, guys,
this team was Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, Like, how
bad could they be? They've had a whole year to
(11:28):
get their act together, like this team is going to
be improved, and then all of a sudden things just
completely fell apart. So watching them now, I don't know
what they have left to play, Like they're just kind
of brooked in my opinion. So the Pelicans, like they're
(11:50):
not a terrible team when they have Zion Williamson available.
I mean, they're not good, but I don't know if
they deserve to be catching seven and a half here.
So I'll take the Pelicans. I mean they have won
a couple games in a row, granted, like it was
against the lowly Spurs without Victor Wembinamo, But are the
Suns that much better? I mean, they certainly haven't played
(12:12):
that way. They got hammered the other day by Toronto.
I want to say, like, it's it's just been all
ugly for Phoenix. So I can't imagine laying seven and
a half points with them against basically anyone at this point.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
That's what happens, guys, when when you invest in that
Kevin Durant Phoenix Sun's crypto currency, you get the rug.
Speaker 6 (12:30):
Pull I was actually gonna bring up though, I kind
of like Katie's points tomorrow night at twenty five and
a half. He's averaging close to twenty nine at home, sure.
Speaker 4 (12:38):
And he's been playing like forty minutes a game.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
So yeah, well that leaves us with.
Speaker 4 (12:46):
What was that, Lamarca, No, I was just saying it's
it's not I kind of agree with that, dude. I've
been more riding the Bradley Beal scoring over like. He
seems like he is all of a sudden back to
being a competent NBA scorer, and he's had a solid
stretch of games here. But certainly, I think, Devin, if
(13:08):
you want us to tell me that Kevin Durant is
going to score a lot of points like, it would
be pretty hard for me to argue against that.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
A couple of games still, Tackle Warriors, Magic Hornets, Mavericks.
We have definitely you know, saved the exciting ones for
the second segment here with lamarka people's parlay on the
way as well.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
We have Matt Lamark here with us. Some Fantasy Life
will build out a People's parlay for you for tomorrow
in just a little bit a couple more games to
touch on on the short Thursday slate. There are only
a handful Warriors and Magic as well as the Hornets
and Mavericks are still in front of us here. You know,
before we went to break Lamark, I was maybe a
(13:53):
little dismissive of these games. But the fact of the
matter is the Warriors who are coming into this one.
I'm looking at let's see six point favorites. There are
some five and a half's out there as well. In Orlando.
This is a team that really has been different since
Jimmy Butler has found his joy essentially in that trade
(14:14):
and leaving Miami because his life was so difficult there
under pat Riley and Eric Spolstra. Wins in six out
of seven, and many of those in blowout fashion. You know,
just beat the Hornets, who are atrocious, we'll talk about them,
by more than thirty points. Before that, beat the Mavericks,
who are on the other side of that Hornets game,
(14:35):
who are also bad, but that by almost thirty points,
took care of the Kings by more than twenty and
before that the Rockets, who are playing right now by seven,
had a couple of lopsided wins against the Bucks and
the Bulls in there as well. So yeah, the inconsistency
of the magic more or less of alternated wins and
losses throughout this month. I know people don't like backing
(14:58):
relatively heavy runs old favorites, but sort of feels like
Golden State or Stay Away, doesn't it.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
You really got a feel for Jimmy Butler. You know,
it's just incredibly difficult to be making fifty million a
year living in Miami. Like, you know, I don't blame
him for wanting to get out of there. It's gotta
be tough. But now, in all seriousness, don't underestimate how
good Jimmy Butler is at basketball when he wants to
(15:27):
be right, Like, think of some of the teams that
he has dragged on deep playoff runs. And you know,
similarly to like how we talked about with Luca, now
he's working with Steph Perry, who's one of the greatest
players of all times. So I do think that the
Warriors certainly like they are a bigger threat after making
(15:47):
that trade. I'm still not ready to say that they
are like a true contender. You know. Beating the Rockets
is nice, Eating the Bucks is nice. But they've got
to do a little bit more than that to prove
themselves to me. So, you know, particularly their last three
wins the Kings, the Mavericks, the Hornets, that does nothing
(16:09):
for me. I'm going to need to see a little
bit more. And I think this is actually a decent
opportunity to sell high on them. You know, Orlando embarrassing
lost in their last game against the Calvs. I think
that they will be focused and motivated for this one,
and I like the idea of taking them plus the.
Speaker 6 (16:30):
Points, and that brings us to the Hornets and the Mavericks,
the of I just wanted to look up the combined
points that New Orleans is lost by or Charlotte's lost
by the last two games of all of them, it's
like they have been getting blown out consistently by forty
plus points. Matt, does this continue tomorrow? This line's only
at nine and a half on some books.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
Not only at nine and a half for a Dallas
team that is just so banged up. I can't do it.
I can't lay it with Dallas. I don't want to
take it with New Orleans either. To be honest, this
game is just a stay away from me. Of epic proportions.
But you know, Alice, they don't have a single big
(17:13):
man on their roster really right now, right there's still
without their top three centers. Maybe they get PJ. Washington
Dwight Powell back, excuse me.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
PJ.
Speaker 4 (17:23):
Washington also questionable. So I don't know. I just really
want nothing to do this game. I don't want to
waste any brain power thinking about it.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Can't say I blame you, so that that brings us
then fellas to a people's parlay, And if we have
some time on the back end, maybe we can look
at some futures in general NBA thoughts. But let's build
out the parlay LAMARCA. We we will obviously start with you, you
being the guest, but before we do that, we'll give
people the data as we always do. And with you
(17:55):
on the people's parlay, three and seven is the parlay
which is certainly respectable profitable because these are not even
money plays. These are four, five, six to one, whatever
they may be, and your official plays are four and six.
What do you have for us tomorrow?
Speaker 4 (18:13):
It sounds like I'm the anchor on this team. If
we've got three parlay wins with UH and I've only
got four individual wins. You guys might might want to
look elsewhere.
Speaker 6 (18:24):
Well, uh hey, when you hate, you make them count.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
That's what matters here.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
Here's here's what Here's what I can tell you, Lamarca.
We we have jerk strokes on this show.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
We have the jerk category.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
If if you are the person who sinks the parlay,
we go two out of three, you know that person's
the Jerkka, you are a two time jerk. Okay, So
it's it's not like it's all your fault.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
I've been called a jerk many times. I can live
with two. I'm going to uh to the Pelicans. I'm
grabbing the seven and a half with them. I know
they're a bad team. I just think the Suns are
pretty much cooked. It's not like they've given up, they're
just not that good. So I think it's gonna be
(19:14):
tough for them to win by margin, even against the
team like the Pelicans. They've gotten healthier recently that with
Zion and Jose Alvarado is playing decent basketball. Tree Murphy
has quietly had a really nice season for New Orleans.
So I still think New Orleans has enough to keep
this game close. And I am going to grab the points.
Speaker 6 (19:35):
Okay, Dan College basketball guys, Let's go out west tomorrow night,
and we are going to lay six and a half
points with UCSB. You see, Santa Barbara. That is the
Gauchos at home taking on cal Poly. The model says
that this line should be closer to nine actually, so
we're getting almost a full possession of value here. According
to my rhythm model. When you look up historically when
(19:57):
these two teams match up, UCSB is actually on a
fifteen game winning streak against cal Poly heading into tomorrow nights.
Let's hope they keep taking care of business and win
this one by at least seven points tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Listen, guys, I don't know if this is the right play.
I know Lamarka isn't sold on it from when we
discussed it earlier. That being said, I'm going with my
gut a little bit. We preach that around here. Go
with your gut. My gut tells me the Denver Nuggets
are gonna get this done in Milwaukee. I considering the
money line minus one forty, but honestly, I'm gonna avoid
(20:32):
the juice. It's it's a tight spread. Obviously fanned up
winning by two. I'll be pissed, but I'm gonna take
Denver minus two and a half. That is the direction
I'm gonna go. This team is barring a surprise tomorrow.
Just reading the injury report we read it to you earlier.
This team's healthy. All Key Coggs will be out there
(20:54):
for Denver, and Lamarka talked about how well they're playing
there as hot as anybody else in the NBA right now,
say maybe the Detroit Pistons. And in addition to that,
you know Milwaukee is still just not quite right. And
again the its limit Janis minutes limit is you know,
should be of some level of concern as well. And
(21:15):
so you put those three together. Brian is shopping and around.
We have plus five ninety six on Caesar's at all
the numbers that we want slightly higher at FanDuel plus
six zero two, but that is with the Nuggets at
minus three the Pelicans at plus seven, So I think
Caesar's obviously is the place to go.
Speaker 6 (21:35):
Yeah, no need to get cued over six cents.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
So that's what we'll do for our parlay and hopefully
hit this thing beyond that, Lamarka, because we've got a
couple more minutes here. Anything that you are seeing out
of the All Star Break hasn't been very long obviously.
That I don't know is making you think any differently
about team that you could believe in as we get
(22:02):
close to the playoffs here, teams that you would consider
investing in. I know, there's we spent some time on
it earlier this week. There's the you know, Phil Jackson
gets the credit for it, but there's the forty twenty
rule where ninety percent of champions in the NBA going
back to nineteen eighty three have been part of the
forty twenty club, which, for those that don't know, is
(22:24):
win forty games before you lose twenty. There are three
teams that made the cut this year, those being the Celtics,
the Cavaliers, and the Thunder. That would tell you, historically speaking,
one of those three teams is almost certainly going to
win the title and everybody else is out. That said,
you're not finding value on those teams right now, So
where would you look.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
I disagree about the value proposition. I think the Cavs
are still a nice value target at you know, plus
seven hundred. You know you could have gotten them fifteen
to one, twenty to one earlier this season, but I
still don't think the gap between them and the Celtics
is tight enough. I don't disagree with the Celtics being
(23:05):
the favorite in the East, but I don't see them
as being that much more likely than Cleveland. Cleveland's really
really good guys, and it should shock no one if
they are able to beat Boston should those teams meet
in the Eastern Conference Finals, they will almost certainly have
home court advantage in that series. They are just a
(23:28):
really good team. They've gone through some, you know, tough
years the past few seasons, but I think that they
are good enough to get over the home this season.
And who knows what could happen with the Celtics from
an injury perspective, you are relying on Kristavs Sporzingis, who
is not the picture of health. And you know, frankly,
(23:48):
the Celtics ran good enough last year that they didn't
need Porzingis to win the championship with you know, sort
of how the how the schedule broke around them, they
didn't ever really have to face the team that was
in the same weight class as them. I think the
Calves are so I think, certainly, if you're looking at
(24:08):
those top three teams, Cleveland to me is the best
value of plus seven hundred. And if you wanted to go,
you know, further down the board, you know, maybe Minnesota
would float your boat at you know, sixty five to one.
They haven't been the same team this year, but they
still got Anthony Edwards. They got some good playoff experience
(24:30):
last year. And I do believe that the West is
a little bit more open than the East. Right Like
in the East, I would bet a lot of money
that either Boston or Cleveland will be the team that
advances in the West. You know, the thunder are really
really good, but they have never made it to the
(24:51):
Western Conference finals before. Typically you have to experience some
growing pains before you get over the hump. Maybe we
saw that last year when they lost to the Mavericks,
but it would not shock me if it took them
one more year before they were really able to sort
of break out. So I think if I was going
to be looking for a sleeper team, the West is
(25:13):
where I would be looking.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
Matt Lamarca again from Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life on Twitter
at Matt Lamarca and the man's work is not limited
to Fantasy life either. He is all over the place.
Make sure you check him out, including here on this show.
When he's kind enough to join us, we always enjoy it.
Speaker 4 (25:31):
My man absolutely looking forward to opening Day. Good luck
to your Red Sox, good luck to my Mets.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
There will be plenty of baseball talk with Matt Lamarca
in the future, and not as much betting on it
for me as I try and keep my composure. This
summer needed to be better than last summer.
Speaker 6 (25:49):
So I've actually like already started like talking like prepping
myself and being like, I'm gonna be restrained this summer.
I am going to take it easy and I'm just
gonna you know what I'm gonna I don't have to
make them any base in a given night.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
The biggest thing, and this is not like centric to baseball.
This is just a betting thing, and it applies to
so many people out there. Obviously is a universal betting thing.
But I've been thinking about it a lot lately because
my twenty twenty four went very well and my twenty
twenty five is off to a rocky start, and I
will spend like hours locked in my basement reading about
(26:23):
this stuff, researching, putting stuff together, and then you know,
sometimes you have a good day. Sometimes you you know,
just have wrongreads, and other days there's the in between
where kind of right read, wrong result, bad variants, all
of that stuff. But what kills me is and you
can't do this, this is just a psychological problem. But
what kills me is I'll sit there and I'll go
(26:43):
like God, not like, not only did I lose all
this money today in the whole spirit of like time
is money too, Like I paid for the opportunity effectively
to lose this money. And I start to think about,
you know, the all the summer hours spent, like I
could be outside shooting hoops with my kids instead of
(27:04):
you know, reading out like, no, I'm not losing all
this money on baseball this year, and even for that matter,
even if I do all right winning on baseball, like
my kids need their father, what am I doing with
my life?
Speaker 6 (27:17):
I was literally like, I'm gonna go, like make it
a point to like lay on the beach and not
have cell service so I can't look because so I
cannot look at baseball lines.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
I'm saying, man, good lines, though, Nate McKinnon as a
goal Yep.
Speaker 6 (27:31):
He's smashing all of his props tonight and I was
on just about all of them. So I'm very happy
with that right now.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
Good on you. What was the uh the goal line?
Speaker 6 (27:39):
Like one thirty five?
Speaker 3 (27:40):
Great?
Speaker 6 (27:41):
Yeah, nice little play? Two points was plus one fifteen
on that three or three and a half shots was
minus one twenty five. He's at five.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Yeah, I'll say to you, I'll say you what you
said to me the other day about SGA and and
laddering up? Where was this for show plays?
Speaker 3 (28:00):
You know? Going next?
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Like I gave one? He did? Yeah, I guess we
needed more. What can we say? Devin Masel look pretty good.
Harrison Barnes not so much. They're in the fourth quarter
there and just a quick little check and I know
we got a break. But where are we at with
shan gun rebounds? We need one more. We need one
(28:23):
more out of Shangun to cash the Dan Titus play
and make me a jerk. Hopefully it happens. That's a
plus money play as well. Nine minutes to go in
this one, so that's not the problem. The concern is
the blowout. They're up by about twenty five points. So
we need shan Gun to still have some opportunity in
this one. Try and get us there. He is not
on the floor right now. Hopefully at some point he
(28:44):
checks back in.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
It would be a shame to get hooked on that.
We'll come on back with more.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
Our thanks once again to Matt Lamarca as well as
of course Aj Scholz and Cody Mitchell before him. A
lot of great insights, a lot of show plays. Just
to check in on our show plays right now. Let's
see what's in, what's done? Arizona got the job done late,
little push to put him over the hump covered the fifteen,
so Dan's leg is in zoo bots we mentioned was
(29:15):
a sweat free first quarter cash for Chowdrey's choice Sammy Chowdrey,
yet another win. People's parlay is dead because the Knicks
faltered down the stretch. They still won, but did not
cover the ten. Shane Goun is in a worry spot
right now. We need one more rebound out of him,
and I'm just not sure if he's going to see
(29:35):
the floor again. Hopefully he does. A seventeen point game
though with seven minutes to go, so I am concerned.
Dan's bankrup repair is dead again, my straight with the
Knicks dead. As far as what's in progress, the Builder
group play that Dan had suggested, Colorado on the money line,
McKinnon with at least a point, looking great, about twelve
(29:57):
minutes to go in that one, Colorado up to nothing
and McKinnon, as we just talked about, has two points.
He is a goal and an assist. Harrison Barnes is
not doing what we need from needed four rebounds. He
has one, So go figure the ninety percent hit rate
the last ten games has is not looking good. So
(30:18):
my bank will repair that. Should cash not concerned about that.
We're just waiting on Houston here and that win should
come home, so we'll get that. And again so Shane
Gun is going to be significant to us that plus
one twelve if we can somehow get another rebound out
of him. And also the latest ad and that was
(30:39):
Oregon State minus three and a half. We added that
emphatically and right now good stuff up by eleven at
home against San Francisco with about five minutes to go
in the opening half. Long long way obviously to go
in this game, but at the moment.
Speaker 6 (30:53):
Good, yeah, definitely, and looking forward to adding some more too.
I know, we got a golf tournament this week weekend.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
We do, you know, we've not been you know, like
some some places are already looking ahead toward the Masters,
you know, forty ish days out and giving out insights
and picks and you know, ways to handicap things. It's
never too early, I guess for Golf's major, maybe we
should do some of the same. Maybe next week, but yeah,
(31:22):
this week we have the Cognizant Classic in the Palm
Beaches as it is termed down there in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
The purse is nearly ten million, so you know, don't
make light of this tournament. These guys are out there
chasing something for sure, as far as participants in this one,
(31:43):
because it's always a wonder what the name recognition is.
You know, you don't have some of the bigger names.
The favorite, for instance, is Shane Lowry at twenty to one.
Russell Henley and Sun jam right behind him, each twenty
two to one. Then you have Taylor Pendrith and Sepstruca
pardon me, Daniel Berger. All these guys are inside thirty
(32:05):
to one, but goes on from there. There is no
you know plus four point fifty Scottie Scheffler or plus
seven hundred Rory McElroy, that kind of thing that said,
there is opportunity to make money. And you guys are
certainly more golf guys than I am.
Speaker 3 (32:21):
Brian.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
You in particular, let's let's go to you because I
know you're you're thinking about making something show official.
Speaker 5 (32:26):
As it's more of like a bankroll repair kind of play.
And sure apologize for the podcast listeners as these guys
t off at six forty five and I don't know
if you can bet make the cut plays after the
tee off, but maybe the future of the is on Tuesdays.
But I'm going to take Stepstraca and Lucas Glover are
both to make the cut. Put those together plus one
oh four PJ Nationals is the kind of course where
(32:47):
you don't don't use driver a lot, and it's very
iron heavy approach play, and these guys are some of
the top approach players. Stepstrucker has already won the tournament
earlier this year. And when these guys don't have to
hit driver a lot, it benefits of their game. So
just to make the cut, those two guys plus one
O four and fandul.
Speaker 3 (33:02):
Okay, look and to see if we can put that
on the action app. That feels like a custom situation,
so in case we don't. You heard it here from
Brian and we'll be tracking it obviously, but Glover and
Straka to make the cut.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
So Brian.
Speaker 6 (33:18):
One of the big storylines coming into this one is
about the top amateur Luke Clinton and he can get
his PGA Tour membership card this week if he makes
the cut. He's from Florida, he grew up I think
like thirty miles from this golf course. Big time narrative
play here for him to make the cut is minus
one seventy four on fandel best price. Would you be
willing to lay that with Clanton this week or would
(33:40):
you just stay away?
Speaker 5 (33:41):
It's probably just either play it with someone like strac
or a Lowry to make the cut and so you
probably get like plus one ten plus one fifteen odds,
or you take him like a man know who's look
at his matchups. Maybe take him there tournament long matchup. Sure,
say something like that.
Speaker 6 (33:56):
Lowry Clanton both to make the cut is plus one
oh three and shame Lowry. By the way, guys, has
three straight top five finishes at this at this tournament.
Speaker 5 (34:04):
Yeah, so and he's the Favorite's that's a safe I would,
I would, I would look at.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
That right now.
Speaker 6 (34:08):
I'm gonna make that show official, Loo Lowry Clinton, let's
get let's go narrative and the favorite?
Speaker 3 (34:17):
So what are we doing here? What are we making
show officials.
Speaker 6 (34:20):
Shane Lowry and Luke Clinton to both make the cut.
And what's the U plus one O three on FanDuel? Okay,
all right, golf builders, folks, there you go. These will
both cash by Friday night, Adam, so you don't have
wait till Sunday.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Beautiful speaking my language, Uh, it looks like I didn't
even realize he had checked back in and I unless
he didn't and maybe there was a stack correction. I'm
not sure. I'm not paying very close attention to this
basketball game, but Sheng Goon has eleven rebounds on the
box score that I am looking at on ESPN. He's
(34:57):
not on the floor right now. It's a blowout. They
get the scrubs in nice, but he is listed at again. Yeah,
I'm checking CBS, I'm checking ESPN. What's crazy, too, is
that he has eleven rebounds. Yeah, nineteen minutes, all barely
played in this game, so make a jerk of me again.
But that's okay. Cash the plus money hit from Titus,
(35:20):
well done. We're gonna break when we come back. I
do want to take us down narrative street discuss one
more potential play that we have already brought up on
this show, but we have not invested in.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Will we should?
Speaker 2 (35:33):
We?
Speaker 3 (35:34):
Could? We stay tuned.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Tracking all these show plays obviously that we already mentioned,
and we have given out the usual half dozen to
start for tomorrow with a chowdery's choice to follow in
the morning when he texts me at like five am.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
So we'll get that thing posted.
Speaker 2 (35:53):
But Dan's bankroller repayers there mine is there both the
plus money Nuggets minus two and a half, my straight
Matt Marcu's Pelicans plus two and a half. You see
Santa Barbara from Dan minus six and a half, that
people's parlay best on Caesar's plus five sixty five? Do
we want a narrative street play the play that we
have discussed before attacking the Lakers with nas Reed. Lamarco
(36:17):
was offended when I suggested that nas Reed may not
be up for the challenge. His prop is nine and
a half nine and a half rebounds opposite the Lakers
tomorrow night and looking at as Lamarca said his last
five games where he is seen at minimum thirty three
minutes and sometimes up over forty, he has had eleven
(36:39):
plus rebounds in four out of five, with the lone
exception being eight. He has been a force, he has
been involved. He is a starter. Go bear is out?
Do we chase naz Reed tomorrow at double digit rebounds?
Speaker 6 (36:53):
It sounds like you want to.
Speaker 2 (36:54):
Well, I'm asking the triumvirent.
Speaker 6 (36:58):
I mean sure, I mean we've been going after this.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
We can sleep on it, so you know, we could
post it to the app tomorrow. Don't need to decide
right this minute.
Speaker 6 (37:06):
I mean we can probably talk about it more too
tomorrow night and than the first hour.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Great point as well.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Yeah, we get some late night NBA coming our way
tomorrow with just that one game Timberwolves and Lakers. It'll
be a ten to thirty contest. Again, busy night on
the ice. Tomorrow you get two ten o'clock games. And
we also in the world of college hoops with a
bunch of anonymous teams that we won't be talking about
a month from now. Let's see from nine thirty on one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
(37:37):
nine ten games.
Speaker 6 (37:39):
Yeah, Thursday, it's a last first game.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
Well, we're gonna have to line up a college guest
tomorrow night for that first hour. That is for sure.
It's gonna be a lot of fun. Thanks so much
everyone for hanging out here with us, for Mitchell, shoals
Lamarca and of course Dan and Brian.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
I'm Adam.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Check out the pod We'll see you.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
You've been listening to the Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six point eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (38:17):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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