March 4, 2025 • 37 mins
March 4, 2025: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guest Ryan Kramer (@kramercentric) from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. In case we haven't mentioned it yet, IT'S MARCH, BABY! The slates will be narrowing on the college hardwood as Selection Sunday approaches, but we've got some fun conference tournaments to look at, including those already underway. Kramer shares his favorite plays for Wednesday's schedule.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly betting.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling between animal
how do you do that? But being good at it?
Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's a Gainneibler with Adam Kaufman streaming live on the
iHeartRadio app. Me a moment, subscribe to the podcast. Back
to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Final hour tonight.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Anyway out of the Gambler with Adam Kaufman and we
will be well bounced around a little bit in the
latter half of the hour, but front loading this thing
with a lot of college basketball as Dan and I
are on opposite sides, and he appears to be on
the good side of Auburn, Texas A and M. You
know we we mentioned it earlier before even tip off.
(00:53):
You know this, the industry fell in love with A
and M today. Just I don't know what it is,
you know, the desperation for a win, how tough it
is to win on the road, and the sec call
it what you will, But at the moment, I think
also had ten with four and a half to go.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
Part of it was Auburn kind of starting to get
a little cocky and feeling themselves a little too much.
So that team could definitely use a little humble popcorn
to borrow a phrase from Rodney Harrison as they head
down the stretch and before the SEC tournament next week.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Yeah, and well there's some interesting angles to get into
with that. Let us bring on our next and final
guest to the program. That is Ryan Kramer on Twitter
at kramer Centric, part of the sports gambling podcast network Family.
You can see him on Viison as well. How are you, sir?
Speaker 5 (01:42):
Oh? I'm doing actually, and I hope you guys don't
mush my texas A and m Aggie's over here. Absolutely
fell in love with them, just like you said. I'm
part of the industry, I guess. But the note you
missed Auburn coming off the clinch of the regular season title,
So perhaps that's where the letdown's coming from.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
And look, you know we can all win.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
I just need Auburn money line I need, but you know,
I don't need them to cover, just need them to
squeak through. But I'm losing confidence as we hit the
four minute mark there. But it does bring up an
interesting point about the SEC in general. And I've heard
other people say this, and I don't know how you
guys feel about it. But the idea that just because
(02:23):
of this conference and the number of teams that you know,
are are qualified and could be part of the field
of sixty eight. But what a difficult road it's going
to be leading up to that, and what a grind
it's going to be that it might actually be to
the advantage of any of these teams to lose the
SEC tournament if it has true championship aspirations. You know,
(02:45):
a lot of people I feel like are going to be,
you know, fading, not necessarily in the first round, but
maybe the second round, just that opening weekend, whichever team
does come out as the SEC conference champion because of
the gauntlet they have to go through.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
How do you see it, Ryan, Yeah, it's interesting.
Speaker 5 (03:03):
We're seeing this kind of total wave of anti conference
championship conference tournament stuff. We saw it in the fall
with football, maybe there's less benefit to play those games,
and now with college basketball. I mean absolutely, if you're
a fan of a team like Auburn, you'd love for
them to get knocked out in the first or second round.
Maybe you go home on Thursday or Friday, you get
a couple of extra days you're not playing until Saturday Sunday.
(03:25):
You know, we've seen it. It's one of those. You know,
we do a March Madness betting commandments for the tournament
and we you know, ten commandments on how to bet
the tournament. One of those is generally fading the major
conference tournament winners, especially when they're you know a little
bit more of a Cinderella. They had to go through
that grind or win you know, five games in five
(03:46):
days or whatever it would be, and that often weighs
on teams. I mean, obviously we saw DJ Burns Anti
State have some fun with it last year, and there
are some outliers, but I think for the most part,
if I'm a fan of one of these big dogs,
I'd almost for they don't care about the conference championship.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
So Ryan, with that being said, let's let's get into tomorrow,
and let's start right off in the SEC where we
have this top ten showdown between Florida and Alabama. This
game in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are favored by three and
a half. Here the total one seventy seven and a half.
Still don't think i'd like to have an underticket. And
now when I can tell you that much with the
way these two teams shoot the basketball. But Alabama, we
(04:24):
saw them completely melt down over the weekend in Tennessee,
probably cost themselves a one seed with that fiasco up
in Knoxville. Do they bounce back tomorrow night or do
you think the Gators can go in there and pull
off a win?
Speaker 5 (04:38):
An interesting handicap. I love a situational spot, and I
just you know, this is one of those games. Before
the season. I circled the Texas game on February eleventh,
and I circled the Florida game on March fourth, and
it's like, well, Alabama has Auburn on deck. And again,
maybe another reason why Texas A and M was a
decent play tonight. I can't take Alabama. I also can't
(04:58):
take Alabama. That need coaching display and granted he did
take some accountability, but that was one of the worst
coaching displays we've seen at any level of any sport.
So it certainly has to have a little bit of
confidence rattled there. Plus, I don't know what is about
this Alabama team. I just I don't find myself getting
to the window with them very often. And so yeah,
(05:18):
with Auburn Looming. Even if it's not the biggest game,
it's still Auburn Alabama. I got to take Florida to
take him down in this one.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
Michigan Maryland couple of top twenty five teams in action.
You have Michigan a one and a half point favorite
at home, and as we know, Wolverines were embarrassed at
home last time out over the weekend by the fighting
a line. I allowed ninety three points in that one.
You have a Maryland team that's gone cold from three
point range on the other side. Again, this game is
(05:49):
a you know, bought us close to a pick him
as you can get.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
How do you see it?
Speaker 5 (05:54):
You know, I think I look at this Maryland team
and I you know, with the exception of that Michigan State,
and I think we can all agree in Michigan State
is playing some fabulous basketball right now. This is a
team that's been on a little bit of a heater,
and you know, this time of year, I don't mind
recognizing that sometimes, you know, coaching and veteran teams do
(06:16):
start showing up later in the year, and so I'm
not going to thank them too hard for that Michigan
State loss. Meanwhile, Michigan on the other side, anytime you
have a team coming off a bone rattling loss like
this at home, you have to wonder how they're gonna respond.
And while I love Dusty May, I don't know if
I want to bet on them to respond in this spot.
So once again, I'm going to take a road team
(06:37):
here in Maryland on the road to get it done
in the Little Big House or whatever they call their
basketball arena.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
So really interesting spot in the Big East Tomorrow night,
Yukon and Marquette, these two are kind of jockeying for
seating next week in the Big East Tournament. The Huskies
are a three and a half point favorite at home
over the Golden Eagles. Now, they went to Marquette back
in February and they were like a seven and a
half point dog won that game outright, I think they were,
like why I think they wanted wire to wire if
(07:05):
I remember correctly. Can you Kon go to and On
and complete the sweep tomorrow night? Or do does shock
as Smart have something to say about this?
Speaker 5 (07:15):
You know it's funny? Well, the first thing I generally
do with a Connecticut home game, at the least this
year with Dan Hurley having many meltdowns? Is is this
game actually being played in store than it is? And
normally I would look to play a little revenge here,
but I think that Hurley and this Yukon team will
understand the importance of this one. I certainly think the
crowd will be there for the support, and yeah, as
(07:36):
much as I I mean, I'm a Jersey guy, so
I should support Hurley. But then he has turned into
just a petulant child and it's so hard to back them,
but I have to in the spot.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
I won't be betting Wisconsin at Minnesota tomorrow. Although the
Badgers we've seen the line move a little bit here
to seven and a half was six and a half,
does feel like Wisconsin is the right side. They've won
six out of the last eight, Minnesota unreliable team at home,
four straight losses.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
It's just, you know, people listeners.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
Of this show know Ryan, But you know any way
that we as a program bet Minnesota, be it on
the Badgers against the Badgers, it just goes the other way,
or Wisconsin, pardon me, it goes the other way. So
if I were to invest in Wisconsin, I can guarantee
Minnesota not only covers the number, probably wins, But how
would you bet this game?
Speaker 5 (08:27):
You know, this game really reminds me of a game
we saw tonight between my alma Mah and Virginia Tech,
who for some strange reason decided to resign Mike Young
and maybe commit some more NL dollars. But they were
catching seven and a half, eight eight and a half
points to a North Carolina team that it's quietly been sneaky,
sneakily playing better ball, especially when you zoom in over
(08:48):
the last couple of weeks and when you look at
the general bet distribution in this one, it stands out
the money is coming in on Wisconsin, but there's no resistance.
And so I think in this normally, you know you're
right to have the thought, Hey, this is the stinks.
This might be a home dog spot, but end of
season college basketball you can't quantify quick. So I got
(09:10):
to take Wisconsin here laying.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
The points on the road, just looking to see which
other big time spots are really interesting Tomorrow night, and
I guess, I guess we'll go to the Big twelve
and give you. I'm gonna throw a big, big line
at you, Ryan Texas Tech laying seventeen and a half
at home against Colorado. The Buffs have been horrible this season.
I mean, would you still lay the points here? Would
you actually scoop them up?
Speaker 5 (09:33):
The Buffs have been horrible. I meanwhile, Texas Tech, you know,
you look at some of the sharp folks out there
with their power numbers, and this team's not too far
off some of the best teams in the country. And
so again, I'm not one of these guys who's afraid
to lay a big favorite in college basketball towards the
end of the season when we think we know when
we're getting from a program, and when you look at Colorado,
(09:53):
outside of a couple times when they showed up at home,
this has not been a very competitive team. So it's
a huge jum I don't mind lying huge numbers this
time of the year as a conference regular season raps outs. Yeah,
I love Tech and I agree with the Sharks. I
love teching the postseason this year.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
Ryan Kramer here with us from the Sports Gambling podcast Network.
We will step aside, come on back with some more
looks at tomorrow, maybe some conference attorney thoughts in general
and a people's parlay.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
We'll get Ryan's.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
Best bet for tomorrow as well. Brian Kramer here with
us from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, looking at tomorrow's
slate in the world of college basketball, some turney futures
conference tournaments of course, as we are a little less
than two weeks out from selection Sunday and get the
(10:42):
field of sixty eight bracket and People's parlay on the
way for tomorrow as well as we sweat out tonight's
People's parlay. So there's a lot happening right now here
on the show. Let's go Tennessee Ole miss three and
a half point favorite the volunteers on the road, the
number four team here, Ryan, and you know it's first
matchup of the season between these two teams. Tennessee is
(11:04):
nine and one straight up, six and four against the
spread the last ten meetings with all missed the under
eight and two in those games. We have a one
thirty seven and a half. People seem at the moment, well,
looking at the splits, it's it's about sixty percent of
the handle on the under, but about seventy percent of
the bets coming in on the over.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
What do you think of this game?
Speaker 5 (11:27):
You know this is we were talking about it earlier
before the break with a juicy home dog situation. Sorry,
the juicy home team situation. This is not it. And
as much as Tennessee is playing well, I do worry
about this spot. I like the game that Chris Beard
(11:50):
and the Rebels put out their last game out, I mean,
almost blowing it against Oklahoma, ending up winning the game.
I don't know. Maybe I'm just a sucker for Beard
and his teams, but I can't bet on Rick Barnes
in March. I have a rule regular season, Rick, and
I know it's still the regular season, but the calendar
(12:12):
has shifted, and I'm certainly not gonna lay the point.
So give me the points and ole miss and I
think Tennessee can still win it out right, but I'll
take the points here.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Interesting line here, Ryan, in the sec between Missouri and Oklahoma,
missoo favored by four and a half on the road. Here,
the last couple of times we've seen the Tigers head
on on the road, they've lost. They were a favorite favorite, Yeah,
they were the favorite at Vanderbilt. They lost that game outright.
They were a small dog against Arkansas. They lost that
game out right down in Fayetteville. Now they head to
(12:44):
Oklahoma tomorrow, laying four and a half against a Sooner
team that hasn't been great this season by any means,
but they have been decent at home eleven and five
straight up. What do you make of this matchup?
Speaker 5 (12:56):
Yeah, what a story in this Missouri team's Ben denn
Keith n of skates. After going winless in your conference,
going eight and twenty four overall last year, they come
out serious contender. But you're right to identify this is
not a team that we like to bet on the
road here. And even though you know Porter Mosa and
this Oklahoma team are up against it, will say I
(13:19):
don't think you can again, I just don't think you
can take Missouri here. A lot of desperation in the
waters with Oklahoma we saw in the last game. I
was just referencing, and so, yeah, I think amazing what
the committee will end up doing with some of these
SEC teams, because when you just pull up the conference
rankings and you see Texas and Oklahoma sitting down there,
(13:40):
But then you see what Texas just did tonight and
you know Oklahoma, could they potentially sneak these teams in
even though because the conference is so good, I don't know,
but in this spot, I'll take Oklahoma to keep their
chances a lot in.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
Terms of conference tournaments.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
And obviously, I mean you got the Northeast Conference Journey
going on to Mid Ohio Valley Conference, Big South, on
and on.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
I'm huge week obviously, but.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Any conference tournament futures with numbers that you know, I
don't know where you played them, but numbers that still
have value out there for the people listening that you
would advise.
Speaker 5 (14:17):
Well. And that's it's interesting case. I find that while
oftentimes in the big tournament you don't really have a
ton of opportunities to really dig out and find some
some like realistic long shot, I do think you have
that opportunity in some of these smaller conferences. I mean,
I know personally, you know, in reflection, I don't think
(14:41):
I've taken chalk in any of the conference tournaments yet.
So let's just hop over to the Summit League. I
know I just went on a long shot little rant there,
But how is South Dakota State not the favorite to
win this conference? I'm seeing them going off still as
we look at it right now, as high as plus
(15:02):
two to eighty behind North Dakota State and Saint Thomas.
It's almost like they didn't watch the regular season. They
didn't see the way that South Dakota took care of
the conference this year, So that would be one I
look too. I think the Summit League, for whatever reason,
is like an underlooked at conference because it's a Western,
a West, a small western conference, but not in the
(15:22):
big epicenters of like California, and so I find that
the Summit League every year is mispriced. And once again
I think they got it wrong here. So yeah, give me,
give me a jack rabbits.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
What about Sanford in the Southern Conference? Are they as
big of a threat as they were last year as
Bucky ball still a thing or we're gonna hear that
phrase a million times over the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 5 (15:44):
I mean, I think anytime you have a team that
wants to play as fast as Sanford wants to play,
they're a top thirty team in the country in terms
of pace, in top twenty if you're just isolating offense
and you and they're a team that wants to chuck
threes at the rate that they love to chuck threes,
Twelfth in the nation in terms of points coming from
three pointers why not. I mean again, I think so
(16:06):
one of the just kind of a general more macro
handicapping principle for these conference tournaments. I love to pop up,
pop open ken Palm or Torvik or whatever you like,
to look look at your numbers and look at it
through the lens of the whole conference and isolate the
teams that play differently than everyone else. And I think
that's another good angle for Sanford. Look at the better
(16:27):
teams in their conference. They all want to slow the
game down. What does Sanford want to do? They want
to speed it up.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
So you're career, you're.
Speaker 5 (16:33):
Potentially getting this volatility of Hey, if they get their
way with the pace of the game, I like their
chances to win the game. And so Sanford actually is
a great example of that in terms of you know, hey,
most of the Southern Conference wants to play slow, Sanford
wants to play fast. I don't mind taking a taking
a shot at them to win the whole thing.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
All right, guys, let's get to our people's parlay. Fun fact,
Ryan's been with us before, but he has never Dan
been part of the people's part. This is uh, you know,
we're always giving out the data to everyone, let them
know what their personal records are and the show parlay record.
I mean Colby Dance, Seawan Green, you know, Ryan McIntyre,
(17:13):
Terrell Firm, and all these SGPN guys who you work.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
With, who have been on with us, They've been part
of the parlay. Not you. It's your time, Ryan.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
The way this works will get your favorite play for tomorrow,
Damn well off for his I'll give you mind. We'll
put them all together and try and cash in with
a nice big ticket as well.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
So sets the stage for you. What do you have?
Speaker 5 (17:33):
Well, we talked about this game in the first segment.
I told you I circled it before the season. He's
even started. I love situational handicaps, and I love the
idea of getting this Florida team taking on Alabama as
a dog with Alabama Auburn on deck. You can you
know I'm seeing I'm seeing it as much as much
as four out there. I already got down on this
(17:54):
at three and a half. Yeah, I just I love
a good situational handicap and it feels like it's right
on brand for the people's parlay. As you know, crazy
stuff tends to happen down there in sep Country.
Speaker 4 (18:08):
Dan from the SEC to THENEC guys first round, I
think of the tournament. Tomorrow, We're going to take Long
Island the Sharks minus twelve and a half against Chicago State,
who is one of the worst teams in all of
college basketball. The Sharks have been tremendous against the number
of this season, nineteen and ten against The spread model
says this line is not big enough, should be closer
(18:29):
to fifteen here, So let's lay it with the Sharks,
who are also looking for some revenge against Chicago State
tomorrow too.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
I'm gonna take this to the NBA, and I just
I don't understand this line, and I know it's moved
a little bit from open was minus one and a
half now it's minus two and a half some places
three and a half. That's the Detroit Pistons at the Clippers.
Detroit is rested. We already know that Tobias Harris will
(18:56):
not play, Isaiah Stewart is probable, everybody else unless there
is a surprise, we'll be out there for a Pistons
team that has been playing great basketball for a few weeks.
The Clippers, meanwhile, are playing right now obviously, and there's
no Norman Powell. He's not playing tonight, he's not playing tomorrow.
He's out at least a week, ten days, whatever it is,
(19:17):
and he'll be reevaluated for his injury. I think the
Clippers are a team that will in fact rule some
guys out and we'll get some CLV on this at
the very least. You know, Clippers are up big at
the moment, so you know, maybe they avoid that by
resting some guys down the stretch if Phoenix doesn't make
a run. But on the surface, Detroit minus two and
(19:37):
a half, it doesn't really make any sense to me.
I think the Pistons win this thing and win it
going away. That being said, I'm gonna be a little
bit more conservative for the sake of our lotto ticket.
Brian here is shopped at a round minus three and
a half with the Pistons. Is on fan Duel at
plus six fourteen two and a half plus five eighty
(20:00):
two on ESPN. Call me a chicken, Tell me I'm
in the wrong industry. I don't care. You'll feel better
about it if Detroit wins by three, not four plus
five eighty two ESPN is where I'm gonna take us
on this parlay.
Speaker 4 (20:13):
Fellas sweet looks good.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
I like it all right, all right, we will lock
it in. Ryan.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
By show law, you are obligated to play this with
us or forever be mocked. Not that you have to
send me your ticket to prove you did. It's the
honor system. But we're gonna have you in good faith,
my friend. But thanks for hanging out with us. As always,
we'll bug you plenty more as we get closer, obviously
to all the great madness that's coming our way in
(20:40):
the next couple.
Speaker 5 (20:40):
Of weeks happing wretch guys.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
All right, it's the best.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
Ryan Kramer once again Sports Gambling podcast Network on Twitter
at kramer Centric. We'll load everything into the action app
check in on show plays all the good stuff. The
Gambler with AK is the handle there.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
We'll be back.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Our thanks to all of our guests, Danny Burke, Taylor,
Kyle's Brady Cannon, Ryan Kramer, Congrats to those of you,
including Dan, who were on the Texas A and M side.
I'm now wishing, obviously that I had altered them the
other way as opposed to just going money line for Auburn,
But I really did think they were going to pull
(21:24):
it out.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
So look, this is how these things go.
Speaker 3 (21:27):
I got a miracle cash on Houston first half yesterday
and just got slaughtered by Auburn today. I mean it
was really in the second half. Just never even close.
They never really, I don't think they ever got closer
than six. I said it earlier, just every time they
made a run, you know, back the other way, came
(21:48):
A and M and answered it right back and got
it to where it was frustrating. But if you're an
Auburn fan and Ryan acknowledged this, you're probably not too disappointed.
Speaker 4 (21:57):
No, they got everything locked they got the ones heed
locked up, and the SEC Tournament. They're gonna be a
one seed in the Big tournament as well. So yeah,
I think they're.
Speaker 3 (22:07):
Okay checking in on show plays. We have not yet
done this today. Here's where we are at. The original
people's parlay that we gave out last night is dead
because we we we could in theory be sweating right now,
but we're not. I gave out Milwaukee minus five and
a half one by six, so just barely got that
(22:27):
against the Hawks. Sadly, the other part of that game
that we were invested in courtesy of Terrelle Furman was
the under one nineteen and a half and Hawk scored
one twenty one, so that was a bummer. We got
a Chowdry's choice void again. Oh really well yeah, Lonzo
ball under four and a half rebounds he got ruled
out before the game, so I guess I could have
(22:50):
just checked in with Sammy to get a different play,
but I didn't, and so no harm, no foul there
from Sammy. Come on back tomorrow. But it's like three
or four voids for say, just sort of bad luck there.
So that People's parlay. The only other leg that is
yet to be decided. Your play Iowa State minus eight
and a half, currently in double overtime, so I don't
(23:13):
think we get the nine point cover even if Yeah,
so we won't be making it a jerk of Terrell
looks like, but who knows crazier things right mentioned earlier,
both the bankroll repairs cashed, so congrats to you, congrats
to me.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
That's good.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
As far as the People's Parlay that we gave out
with Danny Burke earlier, this one is very live, so
we need the Lakers to win by at least eight
at the half, up by ten Devin Booker under seven
and a half assists mid third currently a blowout he
has four, and the other San Diego State minus two
and a half up by two. That games still about
(23:50):
seven minutes to go in the opening half, so long
ways to go. But if we can get that one
home plus four fifty eight, that would go a long
way toward a nice profitable day for us and the
group plays that we handed out the one you suggested.
Minnesota Wild at plus money on the money line, up
four to two, about five minutes to go in Seattle
(24:10):
in the second period, so hopefully the Wild to keep
doing what they're doing, that would be a nice cash force.
The other Dalton Connect twelve plus points over eleven and
a half points, only has three at the half right
now and again a ten point lead for the Lakers.
So Connect, he am just you know, pulling up the
box score in terms of.
Speaker 4 (24:31):
It's been all Luca and Jackson Hayes tonight for the
Lakers who have.
Speaker 3 (24:35):
Yeah, Connect has played ten minutes. You know, we talked
about the you know opportunity. He's played ten minutes. He's
taken three shots, all of them from distance, and again
he's he's hit just the one. But this again, a
blowout is very live and if that happens, he is
a guy that I would think would finish out this game,
so he could go on a run.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
Very capable.
Speaker 4 (24:56):
Yeah, definitely. And like I was talking with Lucas unders here,
he's at twenty point points at halftime. He had seventeen
in the first quarter. Uh, Lucas first quarters definitely, I
think are definitely worth a look going forward because the
line tonight was like eight and a half, and I
think lately he has been he pretty much plays the
entire first quarter and then he sits for a lot
of the second. That's usually how how this rotation's been
(25:19):
working here with the Lakers. So and obviously he doubled
his line tonight, which is insane.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
So Brian just brought up in our chat here that
zubots the other submission that we did not play the
over pra thirty one and a half just cashed.
Speaker 4 (25:35):
Of course it didn't the third quarter, but but.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
I just I want to say this, I would have
like if we called for a for a quorum or
whatever the word would be, I think that would that
would work here.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Uh. And and I don't know how Dan would have
leaned on that.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
I would have said, let's play just because you know
you guys, I suggested Zubots the other night when he
let us down. I like Zubots. I would have backed
the play, but Brian pulled it back. You pulled back
your own play.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
I did.
Speaker 5 (26:04):
I did.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
I thought we were going with one and I like
I like the wild whipped it out and played it
person You can't did to tease zoomach teas.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
No comment?
Speaker 3 (26:17):
Yeah, I uh well, listen, go with your gut. If
your gut was was to play him, I mean I
would think it was. It was it was the state
your case segment. You chose that play. Uh fine, you
know we I guess we should have. If your gout
was to not play him, then so be it. You know,
we've we've had plenty of plays that we've liked that
we've not played that have gone on to cash and
vice versa. But hopefully people out there listening did ride
(26:41):
it because it was it was a good suggestion.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
Oh.
Speaker 3 (26:46):
I wanted to mention while we had a moment as well.
I hadn't done the math going into yesterday show. I
did it after yesterday's show just to tell you a
little bit about February first and foremost, we finished positive
six point nine units. It's nice, happy to have that,
very nice, and happy to have a positive month in general, because,
(27:09):
to be perfectly candid, we were coming off of three
losing months. I don't like to brag about that, but
it is a fact. So to have a positive month
that just in and of itself felt good. But I've
mentioned this before. What I am most happy about, most
proud of in any month, positive or otherwise for the show,
(27:30):
because as we know, there are a lot of different
ways that a month could shake out as positive. Is
it driven by straits, did we have a great parlay month,
was it bank roll repairs? Maybe futures plays? It can
go any number of different different ways. One thing that
was particularly positive about last month is we were up
(27:52):
fourteen and a half units on straight plays.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Oh that's great.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
Those are my plays, your plays, Brian's Play's guests plays.
Obviously Chowdrey's choice included within that the group plays, the
trends plays, the you know, any sort of straight play
that was not a parlay, a future a builder. We
finished up fourteen and a half units, so that I
(28:17):
care more about that than I do anything else, because
parlays we understand are a lottery.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Ticket, I want to say, builders.
Speaker 4 (28:24):
If that, I will.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Tell you we hit two exactly, and one was a
plus seven oh four, the other was a plus three
ninety eight, So one a little bit bigger than the norm.
One pretty considerably smaller in the norm, I would say,
without doing the math, on average, I feel like the
parlays that we hit and submit are in that five
(28:47):
hundred range. Yeah, definitely, so one a little bigger, one
a little less obviously, But bankroll repairs, I you know,
I'm eyeballing this one. I didn't do the exact act
math on this, but actually pretty close to a wash.
Maybe down two units on the bank oror repairs last month,
(29:11):
but off to a really good start on the brs
this month, including the two and zero tonight. March in
general started off well. I mean our first day of
March we picked up three and a quarter units. That
was over the weekend, and took a step back, lost
a unit and change a couple of days ago, and
then I, you know, I got to catch up. But
(29:34):
in general, I'm happy with the way February went. Hopefully,
March and beyond our profitable Certainly these were great months
for us last year, as we know, with a lot
of college basketball. But I think this speaks to some
of you know, because this is really we added all
of these extra like we started doing the group and
(29:54):
narrative plays and that stuff in the like right after Thanksgiving,
so really it kind of took off in December. So December, January,
February is when we really and and like multiple show parlays,
you know, come January when we extended and moved to
the earlier hour and like today adding in with Danny Burke,
(30:17):
like we wouldn't have typically had first hour people's parlays
in the past.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
So it just goes to the.
Speaker 3 (30:24):
Whole volume over variance thing that I've preached on this
show a number of times, and there's there just is
a big difference between giving out like three straight plays
that you know, even if the way we do things
where everything's a full unit play, and you can say
that that is dumb, and that would be fair, that's fine,
(30:44):
but we choose to do it the way that we
do it for a couple of different reasons, but with
everything being a full unit play so that you do
have that lottery ticket if the parlay hits, and in general,
you know, parlays have been profitable for us. It's a
situation where you know, you hit two out of three straits,
but you lose the parlay and then you're drinking a
little bit of juice. It's it's a losing pop proposition.
(31:06):
So adding in these extra straight plays that are not
affiliated with parlays, I really like, I'm happy that we've
done this, and I'm happy that it was a rewarding
month of February for us.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Yeah, it was good.
Speaker 4 (31:19):
But also don't forget we did pick up eight and
a half units on the Josh Allen Future too, and
without that the months and in the red.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Yeah, and and that is Debbie Downer.
Speaker 3 (31:31):
The I'm just saying that, Yeah, that's going off on
how much you love all these extra plays.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Well it's a little bit, you know, break even slightly
to the negative.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
But because of the parlays, ultimately it was a it
was a bad parlay month. But that's not a reflection
of the straits. You know, the parlays. I will tell
you the parlays. We lost Ballpark twelve units last month. Yeah,
so that's you know, again, it's and and I don't
(32:02):
even I didn't keep count of how many times we
went two out of three, but holy Christ, like right
it it must have happened at least ten times.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
Yeah, that's why they say parlays are the devil's work.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
Sure, yeah, I mean, look, there there are people in
this space that hate parlays, and and I get it,
like they think it's just a it's such a stupid
way to gamble to bet. You know, it's it's it's
unnecessary risk, it's minus EV. And it's not always the case.
You can have plus EV parlays if you know you
(32:37):
beat the number and and you know you're you're shopping
things around and all of that. You know, we've had
plenty of plus EV and positive CLV plays that have
have just not hit because the bets don't hit.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
You know.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
That's that's that's a whole other separate conversation. But it's
it's true. And unfortunately, and this is not us, but
there are a lot of people in the space. There
are a lot of you know, like tow people that
sell their picks, a lot of cappers out there on
social media, Like you don't see the volume of parlays
that people post that they lose, and you very rarely
(33:11):
see in a lot of these discords full day recaps,
you know, where you hit one out of like ten
parlays and it was still a losing day because it
wasn't even a massive parlay that you hit. You only
see the big lotto tickets that come forward, and those
are the people that get all the engagement on social
media because you know, everyone wants to jump in and
follow and ride that train. We don't do that here,
(33:33):
we don't, you know, we have I guess technically builders
are parlays because they're multiple legs, but those are a
different category, and you know those are even money, and
those are designed to build your bank roll, which on
the whole bankroll repairs are positive, like almost twenty units
for us. So those have done what they are supposed
to do. It's just a function of again cashing in
(33:54):
on more of these straits and hoping that there's a
little less of the two out of three and a
couple more of the three out of three because we've
done the math before. You know, even if we hit
four people's parlays in a month at all, but guarantees
a profitable month.
Speaker 4 (34:08):
So that's the goal, definitely, yeah, keep doing it, keep building.
Speaker 3 (34:12):
Speaking of goals, the wild are up four to three
Seattle on the board again, so that one might be
a little sweaty, but we're still on the right side
of it here in this moment. We will come on
back with more on the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. I
was just looking Dan and.
Speaker 2 (34:33):
Luka.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
Doncic's RA line rebounds plus assists was fifteen and a
half going into this game tonight, which you know, we're
always talking lately about his scoring prowess, and you know,
over under, how do you go, how do you read
him twenty three in this game tonight? But is he
just cashed mid third not even mid third yet? On
(34:56):
the rebounds plus assists, has sixteen six rebounds, ten boards
in the games since he has joined this team. We
saw fifteen last time out. I don't know what the
line was, but he had six rebounds nine assists the
game before that was a bit of a dud for
him in that way. He scored thirty one points as
(35:16):
the game against the Clippers, the first one, but he
only had seven RA but in the previous games at
least after he kind of got his feet wet there,
you know, remove those first two in a Lakers' uniform.
The next four games, he went eleven and eight, ten
and seven, fifteen and twelve, thirteen and five. This feels
(35:37):
like something we should be paying attention to as far
as you know, not like auto plays. Obviously the books
catch up with that type of thing and doesn't cash
every single night, I realized, but his rebounds plus assist
combos are hitting more often than not.
Speaker 4 (35:53):
Definitely. Oh yeah, No, he's been doing He's been awesome,
without a doubt. I mean, I just like to look
against his score. Obviously doesn't seem like tonight's gonna go
my way on that one. But yeah, he's been just
doing like everything else besides scoring here and now he's
really got everything going for him. So he's been awesome,
and I think he's getting back into He's still not
(36:14):
in the best shape, but he's definitely getting closer to
being in pretty good shape as well too.
Speaker 3 (36:20):
We didn't mention it at all because we didn't really
have an NBA guest looking ahead to tomorrow's action, but
the Celtics are home heavy favorites against the Trailblazers ten
and a half point favorites right now, which to me
is really surprising, honestly, not that they're heavy favorites, but
that they're favored by quite that much given.
Speaker 2 (36:43):
That huge NDA.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
They've got a lengthy injury report of just pulling it
up here. Jalen Brown questionable, non COVID illness, Drew Holliday,
christapsperzingis both doubtful, So they're not going to play. Peyton
Pritchard probable, Jason Tatum with the right shoulder im pinchment questionable,
Derek White lower back intusion probable. This is a massive
(37:04):
stayaway spot.
Speaker 4 (37:05):
Oh definitely. And I mean we've talked about in the
Selter double digit favorites. You might even want to look
going against them.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Might look at Portland, honestly, because you might be getting
value in the number when dudes are ruled in.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
Thanks to our guest, check out the pod for Dan
Bryan and Madam Sea.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
You've been listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six 't eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 2 (37:38):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (37:39):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your podcasts,
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly betting.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling between animal
how do you do that? But being good at it?
Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's a Gainneibler with Adam Kaufman streaming live on the
iHeartRadio app. Me a moment, subscribe to the podcast. Back
to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Final hour tonight.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Anyway out of the Gambler with Adam Kaufman and we
will be well bounced around a little bit in the
latter half of the hour, but front loading this thing
with a lot of college basketball as Dan and I
are on opposite sides, and he appears to be on
the good side of Auburn, Texas A and M. You
know we we mentioned it earlier before even tip off.
(00:53):
You know this, the industry fell in love with A
and M today. Just I don't know what it is,
you know, the desperation for a win, how tough it
is to win on the road, and the sec call
it what you will, But at the moment, I think
also had ten with four and a half to go.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
Part of it was Auburn kind of starting to get
a little cocky and feeling themselves a little too much.
So that team could definitely use a little humble popcorn
to borrow a phrase from Rodney Harrison as they head
down the stretch and before the SEC tournament next week.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Yeah, and well there's some interesting angles to get into
with that. Let us bring on our next and final
guest to the program. That is Ryan Kramer on Twitter
at kramer Centric, part of the sports gambling podcast network Family.
You can see him on Viison as well. How are you, sir?
Speaker 5 (01:42):
Oh? I'm doing actually, and I hope you guys don't
mush my texas A and m Aggie's over here. Absolutely
fell in love with them, just like you said. I'm
part of the industry, I guess. But the note you
missed Auburn coming off the clinch of the regular season title,
So perhaps that's where the letdown's coming from.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
And look, you know we can all win.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
I just need Auburn money line I need, but you know,
I don't need them to cover, just need them to
squeak through. But I'm losing confidence as we hit the
four minute mark there. But it does bring up an
interesting point about the SEC in general. And I've heard
other people say this, and I don't know how you
guys feel about it. But the idea that just because
(02:23):
of this conference and the number of teams that you know,
are are qualified and could be part of the field
of sixty eight. But what a difficult road it's going
to be leading up to that, and what a grind
it's going to be that it might actually be to
the advantage of any of these teams to lose the
SEC tournament if it has true championship aspirations. You know,
(02:45):
a lot of people I feel like are going to be,
you know, fading, not necessarily in the first round, but
maybe the second round, just that opening weekend, whichever team
does come out as the SEC conference champion because of
the gauntlet they have to go through.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
How do you see it, Ryan, Yeah, it's interesting.
Speaker 5 (03:03):
We're seeing this kind of total wave of anti conference
championship conference tournament stuff. We saw it in the fall
with football, maybe there's less benefit to play those games,
and now with college basketball. I mean absolutely, if you're
a fan of a team like Auburn, you'd love for
them to get knocked out in the first or second round.
Maybe you go home on Thursday or Friday, you get
a couple of extra days you're not playing until Saturday Sunday.
(03:25):
You know, we've seen it. It's one of those. You know,
we do a March Madness betting commandments for the tournament
and we you know, ten commandments on how to bet
the tournament. One of those is generally fading the major
conference tournament winners, especially when they're you know a little
bit more of a Cinderella. They had to go through
that grind or win you know, five games in five
(03:46):
days or whatever it would be, and that often weighs
on teams. I mean, obviously we saw DJ Burns Anti
State have some fun with it last year, and there
are some outliers, but I think for the most part,
if I'm a fan of one of these big dogs,
I'd almost for they don't care about the conference championship.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
So Ryan, with that being said, let's let's get into tomorrow,
and let's start right off in the SEC where we
have this top ten showdown between Florida and Alabama. This
game in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are favored by three and
a half. Here the total one seventy seven and a half.
Still don't think i'd like to have an underticket. And
now when I can tell you that much with the
way these two teams shoot the basketball. But Alabama, we
(04:24):
saw them completely melt down over the weekend in Tennessee,
probably cost themselves a one seed with that fiasco up
in Knoxville. Do they bounce back tomorrow night or do
you think the Gators can go in there and pull
off a win?
Speaker 5 (04:38):
An interesting handicap. I love a situational spot, and I
just you know, this is one of those games. Before
the season. I circled the Texas game on February eleventh,
and I circled the Florida game on March fourth, and
it's like, well, Alabama has Auburn on deck. And again,
maybe another reason why Texas A and M was a
decent play tonight. I can't take Alabama. I also can't
(04:58):
take Alabama. That need coaching display and granted he did
take some accountability, but that was one of the worst
coaching displays we've seen at any level of any sport.
So it certainly has to have a little bit of
confidence rattled there. Plus, I don't know what is about
this Alabama team. I just I don't find myself getting
to the window with them very often. And so yeah,
(05:18):
with Auburn Looming. Even if it's not the biggest game,
it's still Auburn Alabama. I got to take Florida to
take him down in this one.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
Michigan Maryland couple of top twenty five teams in action.
You have Michigan a one and a half point favorite
at home, and as we know, Wolverines were embarrassed at
home last time out over the weekend by the fighting
a line. I allowed ninety three points in that one.
You have a Maryland team that's gone cold from three
point range on the other side. Again, this game is
(05:49):
a you know, bought us close to a pick him
as you can get.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
How do you see it?
Speaker 5 (05:54):
You know, I think I look at this Maryland team
and I you know, with the exception of that Michigan State,
and I think we can all agree in Michigan State
is playing some fabulous basketball right now. This is a
team that's been on a little bit of a heater,
and you know, this time of year, I don't mind
recognizing that sometimes, you know, coaching and veteran teams do
(06:16):
start showing up later in the year, and so I'm
not going to thank them too hard for that Michigan
State loss. Meanwhile, Michigan on the other side, anytime you
have a team coming off a bone rattling loss like
this at home, you have to wonder how they're gonna respond.
And while I love Dusty May, I don't know if
I want to bet on them to respond in this spot.
So once again, I'm going to take a road team
(06:37):
here in Maryland on the road to get it done
in the Little Big House or whatever they call their
basketball arena.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
So really interesting spot in the Big East Tomorrow night,
Yukon and Marquette, these two are kind of jockeying for
seating next week in the Big East Tournament. The Huskies
are a three and a half point favorite at home
over the Golden Eagles. Now, they went to Marquette back
in February and they were like a seven and a
half point dog won that game outright, I think they were,
like why I think they wanted wire to wire if
(07:05):
I remember correctly. Can you Kon go to and On
and complete the sweep tomorrow night? Or do does shock
as Smart have something to say about this?
Speaker 5 (07:15):
You know it's funny? Well, the first thing I generally
do with a Connecticut home game, at the least this
year with Dan Hurley having many meltdowns? Is is this
game actually being played in store than it is? And
normally I would look to play a little revenge here,
but I think that Hurley and this Yukon team will
understand the importance of this one. I certainly think the
crowd will be there for the support, and yeah, as
(07:36):
much as I I mean, I'm a Jersey guy, so
I should support Hurley. But then he has turned into
just a petulant child and it's so hard to back them,
but I have to in the spot.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
I won't be betting Wisconsin at Minnesota tomorrow. Although the
Badgers we've seen the line move a little bit here
to seven and a half was six and a half,
does feel like Wisconsin is the right side. They've won
six out of the last eight, Minnesota unreliable team at home,
four straight losses.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
It's just, you know, people listeners.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
Of this show know Ryan, But you know any way
that we as a program bet Minnesota, be it on
the Badgers against the Badgers, it just goes the other way,
or Wisconsin, pardon me, it goes the other way. So
if I were to invest in Wisconsin, I can guarantee
Minnesota not only covers the number, probably wins, But how
would you bet this game?
Speaker 5 (08:27):
You know, this game really reminds me of a game
we saw tonight between my alma Mah and Virginia Tech,
who for some strange reason decided to resign Mike Young
and maybe commit some more NL dollars. But they were
catching seven and a half, eight eight and a half
points to a North Carolina team that it's quietly been sneaky,
sneakily playing better ball, especially when you zoom in over
(08:48):
the last couple of weeks and when you look at
the general bet distribution in this one, it stands out
the money is coming in on Wisconsin, but there's no resistance.
And so I think in this normally, you know you're
right to have the thought, Hey, this is the stinks.
This might be a home dog spot, but end of
season college basketball you can't quantify quick. So I got
(09:10):
to take Wisconsin here laying.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
The points on the road, just looking to see which
other big time spots are really interesting Tomorrow night, and
I guess, I guess we'll go to the Big twelve
and give you. I'm gonna throw a big, big line
at you, Ryan Texas Tech laying seventeen and a half
at home against Colorado. The Buffs have been horrible this season.
I mean, would you still lay the points here? Would
you actually scoop them up?
Speaker 5 (09:33):
The Buffs have been horrible. I meanwhile, Texas Tech, you know,
you look at some of the sharp folks out there
with their power numbers, and this team's not too far
off some of the best teams in the country. And
so again, I'm not one of these guys who's afraid
to lay a big favorite in college basketball towards the
end of the season when we think we know when
we're getting from a program, and when you look at Colorado,
(09:53):
outside of a couple times when they showed up at home,
this has not been a very competitive team. So it's
a huge jum I don't mind lying huge numbers this
time of the year as a conference regular season raps outs. Yeah,
I love Tech and I agree with the Sharks. I
love teching the postseason this year.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
Ryan Kramer here with us from the Sports Gambling podcast Network.
We will step aside, come on back with some more
looks at tomorrow, maybe some conference attorney thoughts in general
and a people's parlay.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
We'll get Ryan's.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
Best bet for tomorrow as well. Brian Kramer here with
us from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, looking at tomorrow's
slate in the world of college basketball, some turney futures
conference tournaments of course, as we are a little less
than two weeks out from selection Sunday and get the
(10:42):
field of sixty eight bracket and People's parlay on the
way for tomorrow as well as we sweat out tonight's
People's parlay. So there's a lot happening right now here
on the show. Let's go Tennessee Ole miss three and
a half point favorite the volunteers on the road, the
number four team here, Ryan, and you know it's first
matchup of the season between these two teams. Tennessee is
(11:04):
nine and one straight up, six and four against the
spread the last ten meetings with all missed the under
eight and two in those games. We have a one
thirty seven and a half. People seem at the moment, well,
looking at the splits, it's it's about sixty percent of
the handle on the under, but about seventy percent of
the bets coming in on the over.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
What do you think of this game?
Speaker 5 (11:27):
You know this is we were talking about it earlier
before the break with a juicy home dog situation. Sorry,
the juicy home team situation. This is not it. And
as much as Tennessee is playing well, I do worry
about this spot. I like the game that Chris Beard
(11:50):
and the Rebels put out their last game out, I mean,
almost blowing it against Oklahoma, ending up winning the game.
I don't know. Maybe I'm just a sucker for Beard
and his teams, but I can't bet on Rick Barnes
in March. I have a rule regular season, Rick, and
I know it's still the regular season, but the calendar
(12:12):
has shifted, and I'm certainly not gonna lay the point.
So give me the points and ole miss and I
think Tennessee can still win it out right, but I'll
take the points here.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Interesting line here, Ryan, in the sec between Missouri and Oklahoma,
missoo favored by four and a half on the road. Here,
the last couple of times we've seen the Tigers head
on on the road, they've lost. They were a favorite favorite, Yeah,
they were the favorite at Vanderbilt. They lost that game outright.
They were a small dog against Arkansas. They lost that
game out right down in Fayetteville. Now they head to
(12:44):
Oklahoma tomorrow, laying four and a half against a Sooner
team that hasn't been great this season by any means,
but they have been decent at home eleven and five
straight up. What do you make of this matchup?
Speaker 5 (12:56):
Yeah, what a story in this Missouri team's Ben denn
Keith n of skates. After going winless in your conference,
going eight and twenty four overall last year, they come
out serious contender. But you're right to identify this is
not a team that we like to bet on the
road here. And even though you know Porter Mosa and
this Oklahoma team are up against it, will say I
(13:19):
don't think you can again, I just don't think you
can take Missouri here. A lot of desperation in the
waters with Oklahoma we saw in the last game. I
was just referencing, and so, yeah, I think amazing what
the committee will end up doing with some of these
SEC teams, because when you just pull up the conference
rankings and you see Texas and Oklahoma sitting down there,
(13:40):
But then you see what Texas just did tonight and
you know Oklahoma, could they potentially sneak these teams in
even though because the conference is so good, I don't know,
but in this spot, I'll take Oklahoma to keep their
chances a lot in.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
Terms of conference tournaments.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
And obviously, I mean you got the Northeast Conference Journey
going on to Mid Ohio Valley Conference, Big South, on
and on.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
I'm huge week obviously, but.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Any conference tournament futures with numbers that you know, I
don't know where you played them, but numbers that still
have value out there for the people listening that you
would advise.
Speaker 5 (14:17):
Well. And that's it's interesting case. I find that while
oftentimes in the big tournament you don't really have a
ton of opportunities to really dig out and find some
some like realistic long shot, I do think you have
that opportunity in some of these smaller conferences. I mean,
I know personally, you know, in reflection, I don't think
(14:41):
I've taken chalk in any of the conference tournaments yet.
So let's just hop over to the Summit League. I
know I just went on a long shot little rant there,
But how is South Dakota State not the favorite to
win this conference? I'm seeing them going off still as
we look at it right now, as high as plus
(15:02):
two to eighty behind North Dakota State and Saint Thomas.
It's almost like they didn't watch the regular season. They
didn't see the way that South Dakota took care of
the conference this year, So that would be one I
look too. I think the Summit League, for whatever reason,
is like an underlooked at conference because it's a Western,
a West, a small western conference, but not in the
(15:22):
big epicenters of like California, and so I find that
the Summit League every year is mispriced. And once again
I think they got it wrong here. So yeah, give me,
give me a jack rabbits.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
What about Sanford in the Southern Conference? Are they as
big of a threat as they were last year as
Bucky ball still a thing or we're gonna hear that
phrase a million times over the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 5 (15:44):
I mean, I think anytime you have a team that
wants to play as fast as Sanford wants to play,
they're a top thirty team in the country in terms
of pace, in top twenty if you're just isolating offense
and you and they're a team that wants to chuck
threes at the rate that they love to chuck threes,
Twelfth in the nation in terms of points coming from
three pointers why not. I mean again, I think so
(16:06):
one of the just kind of a general more macro
handicapping principle for these conference tournaments. I love to pop up,
pop open ken Palm or Torvik or whatever you like,
to look look at your numbers and look at it
through the lens of the whole conference and isolate the
teams that play differently than everyone else. And I think
that's another good angle for Sanford. Look at the better
(16:27):
teams in their conference. They all want to slow the
game down. What does Sanford want to do? They want
to speed it up.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
So you're career, you're.
Speaker 5 (16:33):
Potentially getting this volatility of Hey, if they get their
way with the pace of the game, I like their
chances to win the game. And so Sanford actually is
a great example of that in terms of you know, hey,
most of the Southern Conference wants to play slow, Sanford
wants to play fast. I don't mind taking a taking
a shot at them to win the whole thing.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
All right, guys, let's get to our people's parlay. Fun fact,
Ryan's been with us before, but he has never Dan
been part of the people's part. This is uh, you know,
we're always giving out the data to everyone, let them
know what their personal records are and the show parlay record.
I mean Colby Dance, Seawan Green, you know, Ryan McIntyre,
(17:13):
Terrell Firm, and all these SGPN guys who you work.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
With, who have been on with us, They've been part
of the parlay. Not you. It's your time, Ryan.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
The way this works will get your favorite play for tomorrow,
Damn well off for his I'll give you mind. We'll
put them all together and try and cash in with
a nice big ticket as well.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
So sets the stage for you. What do you have?
Speaker 5 (17:33):
Well, we talked about this game in the first segment.
I told you I circled it before the season. He's
even started. I love situational handicaps, and I love the
idea of getting this Florida team taking on Alabama as
a dog with Alabama Auburn on deck. You can you
know I'm seeing I'm seeing it as much as much
as four out there. I already got down on this
(17:54):
at three and a half. Yeah, I just I love
a good situational handicap and it feels like it's right
on brand for the people's parlay. As you know, crazy
stuff tends to happen down there in sep Country.
Speaker 4 (18:08):
Dan from the SEC to THENEC guys first round, I
think of the tournament. Tomorrow, We're going to take Long
Island the Sharks minus twelve and a half against Chicago State,
who is one of the worst teams in all of
college basketball. The Sharks have been tremendous against the number
of this season, nineteen and ten against The spread model
says this line is not big enough, should be closer
(18:29):
to fifteen here, So let's lay it with the Sharks,
who are also looking for some revenge against Chicago State
tomorrow too.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
I'm gonna take this to the NBA, and I just
I don't understand this line, and I know it's moved
a little bit from open was minus one and a
half now it's minus two and a half some places
three and a half. That's the Detroit Pistons at the Clippers.
Detroit is rested. We already know that Tobias Harris will
(18:56):
not play, Isaiah Stewart is probable, everybody else unless there
is a surprise, we'll be out there for a Pistons
team that has been playing great basketball for a few weeks.
The Clippers, meanwhile, are playing right now obviously, and there's
no Norman Powell. He's not playing tonight, he's not playing tomorrow.
He's out at least a week, ten days, whatever it is,
(19:17):
and he'll be reevaluated for his injury. I think the
Clippers are a team that will in fact rule some
guys out and we'll get some CLV on this at
the very least. You know, Clippers are up big at
the moment, so you know, maybe they avoid that by
resting some guys down the stretch if Phoenix doesn't make
a run. But on the surface, Detroit minus two and
(19:37):
a half, it doesn't really make any sense to me.
I think the Pistons win this thing and win it
going away. That being said, I'm gonna be a little
bit more conservative for the sake of our lotto ticket.
Brian here is shopped at a round minus three and
a half with the Pistons. Is on fan Duel at
plus six fourteen two and a half plus five eighty
(20:00):
two on ESPN. Call me a chicken, Tell me I'm
in the wrong industry. I don't care. You'll feel better
about it if Detroit wins by three, not four plus
five eighty two ESPN is where I'm gonna take us
on this parlay.
Speaker 4 (20:13):
Fellas sweet looks good.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
I like it all right, all right, we will lock
it in. Ryan.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
By show law, you are obligated to play this with
us or forever be mocked. Not that you have to
send me your ticket to prove you did. It's the
honor system. But we're gonna have you in good faith,
my friend. But thanks for hanging out with us. As always,
we'll bug you plenty more as we get closer, obviously
to all the great madness that's coming our way in
(20:40):
the next couple.
Speaker 5 (20:40):
Of weeks happing wretch guys.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
All right, it's the best.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
Ryan Kramer once again Sports Gambling podcast Network on Twitter
at kramer Centric. We'll load everything into the action app
check in on show plays all the good stuff. The
Gambler with AK is the handle there.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
We'll be back.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Our thanks to all of our guests, Danny Burke, Taylor,
Kyle's Brady Cannon, Ryan Kramer, Congrats to those of you,
including Dan, who were on the Texas A and M side.
I'm now wishing, obviously that I had altered them the
other way as opposed to just going money line for Auburn,
But I really did think they were going to pull
(21:24):
it out.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
So look, this is how these things go.
Speaker 3 (21:27):
I got a miracle cash on Houston first half yesterday
and just got slaughtered by Auburn today. I mean it
was really in the second half. Just never even close.
They never really, I don't think they ever got closer
than six. I said it earlier, just every time they
made a run, you know, back the other way, came
(21:48):
A and M and answered it right back and got
it to where it was frustrating. But if you're an
Auburn fan and Ryan acknowledged this, you're probably not too disappointed.
Speaker 4 (21:57):
No, they got everything locked they got the ones heed
locked up, and the SEC Tournament. They're gonna be a
one seed in the Big tournament as well. So yeah,
I think they're.
Speaker 3 (22:07):
Okay checking in on show plays. We have not yet
done this today. Here's where we are at. The original
people's parlay that we gave out last night is dead
because we we we could in theory be sweating right now,
but we're not. I gave out Milwaukee minus five and
a half one by six, so just barely got that
(22:27):
against the Hawks. Sadly, the other part of that game
that we were invested in courtesy of Terrelle Furman was
the under one nineteen and a half and Hawk scored
one twenty one, so that was a bummer. We got
a Chowdry's choice void again. Oh really well yeah, Lonzo
ball under four and a half rebounds he got ruled
out before the game, so I guess I could have
(22:50):
just checked in with Sammy to get a different play,
but I didn't, and so no harm, no foul there
from Sammy. Come on back tomorrow. But it's like three
or four voids for say, just sort of bad luck there.
So that People's parlay. The only other leg that is
yet to be decided. Your play Iowa State minus eight
and a half, currently in double overtime, so I don't
(23:13):
think we get the nine point cover even if Yeah,
so we won't be making it a jerk of Terrell
looks like, but who knows crazier things right mentioned earlier,
both the bankroll repairs cashed, so congrats to you, congrats
to me.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
That's good.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
As far as the People's Parlay that we gave out
with Danny Burke earlier, this one is very live, so
we need the Lakers to win by at least eight
at the half, up by ten Devin Booker under seven
and a half assists mid third currently a blowout he
has four, and the other San Diego State minus two
and a half up by two. That games still about
(23:50):
seven minutes to go in the opening half, so long
ways to go. But if we can get that one
home plus four fifty eight, that would go a long
way toward a nice profitable day for us and the
group plays that we handed out the one you suggested.
Minnesota Wild at plus money on the money line, up
four to two, about five minutes to go in Seattle
(24:10):
in the second period, so hopefully the Wild to keep
doing what they're doing, that would be a nice cash force.
The other Dalton Connect twelve plus points over eleven and
a half points, only has three at the half right
now and again a ten point lead for the Lakers.
So Connect, he am just you know, pulling up the
box score in terms of.
Speaker 4 (24:31):
It's been all Luca and Jackson Hayes tonight for the
Lakers who have.
Speaker 3 (24:35):
Yeah, Connect has played ten minutes. You know, we talked
about the you know opportunity. He's played ten minutes. He's
taken three shots, all of them from distance, and again
he's he's hit just the one. But this again, a
blowout is very live and if that happens, he is
a guy that I would think would finish out this game,
so he could go on a run.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
Very capable.
Speaker 4 (24:56):
Yeah, definitely. And like I was talking with Lucas unders here,
he's at twenty point points at halftime. He had seventeen
in the first quarter. Uh, Lucas first quarters definitely, I
think are definitely worth a look going forward because the
line tonight was like eight and a half, and I
think lately he has been he pretty much plays the
entire first quarter and then he sits for a lot
of the second. That's usually how how this rotation's been
(25:19):
working here with the Lakers. So and obviously he doubled
his line tonight, which is insane.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
So Brian just brought up in our chat here that
zubots the other submission that we did not play the
over pra thirty one and a half just cashed.
Speaker 4 (25:35):
Of course it didn't the third quarter, but but.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
I just I want to say this, I would have
like if we called for a for a quorum or
whatever the word would be, I think that would that
would work here.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Uh. And and I don't know how Dan would have
leaned on that.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
I would have said, let's play just because you know
you guys, I suggested Zubots the other night when he
let us down. I like Zubots. I would have backed
the play, but Brian pulled it back. You pulled back
your own play.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
I did.
Speaker 5 (26:04):
I did.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
I thought we were going with one and I like
I like the wild whipped it out and played it
person You can't did to tease zoomach teas.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
No comment?
Speaker 3 (26:17):
Yeah, I uh well, listen, go with your gut. If
your gut was was to play him, I mean I
would think it was. It was it was the state
your case segment. You chose that play. Uh fine, you
know we I guess we should have. If your gout
was to not play him, then so be it. You know,
we've we've had plenty of plays that we've liked that
we've not played that have gone on to cash and
vice versa. But hopefully people out there listening did ride
(26:41):
it because it was it was a good suggestion.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
Oh.
Speaker 3 (26:46):
I wanted to mention while we had a moment as well.
I hadn't done the math going into yesterday show. I
did it after yesterday's show just to tell you a
little bit about February first and foremost, we finished positive
six point nine units. It's nice, happy to have that,
very nice, and happy to have a positive month in general, because,
(27:09):
to be perfectly candid, we were coming off of three
losing months. I don't like to brag about that, but
it is a fact. So to have a positive month
that just in and of itself felt good. But I've
mentioned this before. What I am most happy about, most
proud of in any month, positive or otherwise for the show,
(27:30):
because as we know, there are a lot of different
ways that a month could shake out as positive. Is
it driven by straits, did we have a great parlay month,
was it bank roll repairs? Maybe futures plays? It can
go any number of different different ways. One thing that
was particularly positive about last month is we were up
(27:52):
fourteen and a half units on straight plays.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Oh that's great.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
Those are my plays, your plays, Brian's Play's guests plays.
Obviously Chowdrey's choice included within that the group plays, the
trends plays, the you know, any sort of straight play
that was not a parlay, a future a builder. We
finished up fourteen and a half units, so that I
(28:17):
care more about that than I do anything else, because
parlays we understand are a lottery.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Ticket, I want to say, builders.
Speaker 4 (28:24):
If that, I will.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Tell you we hit two exactly, and one was a
plus seven oh four, the other was a plus three
ninety eight, So one a little bit bigger than the norm.
One pretty considerably smaller in the norm, I would say,
without doing the math, on average, I feel like the
parlays that we hit and submit are in that five
(28:47):
hundred range. Yeah, definitely, so one a little bigger, one
a little less obviously, But bankroll repairs, I you know,
I'm eyeballing this one. I didn't do the exact act
math on this, but actually pretty close to a wash.
Maybe down two units on the bank oror repairs last month,
(29:11):
but off to a really good start on the brs
this month, including the two and zero tonight. March in
general started off well. I mean our first day of
March we picked up three and a quarter units. That
was over the weekend, and took a step back, lost
a unit and change a couple of days ago, and
then I, you know, I got to catch up. But
(29:34):
in general, I'm happy with the way February went. Hopefully,
March and beyond our profitable Certainly these were great months
for us last year, as we know, with a lot
of college basketball. But I think this speaks to some
of you know, because this is really we added all
of these extra like we started doing the group and
(29:54):
narrative plays and that stuff in the like right after Thanksgiving,
so really it kind of took off in December. So December, January,
February is when we really and and like multiple show parlays,
you know, come January when we extended and moved to
the earlier hour and like today adding in with Danny Burke,
(30:17):
like we wouldn't have typically had first hour people's parlays
in the past.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
So it just goes to the.
Speaker 3 (30:24):
Whole volume over variance thing that I've preached on this
show a number of times, and there's there just is
a big difference between giving out like three straight plays
that you know, even if the way we do things
where everything's a full unit play, and you can say
that that is dumb, and that would be fair, that's fine,
(30:44):
but we choose to do it the way that we
do it for a couple of different reasons, but with
everything being a full unit play so that you do
have that lottery ticket if the parlay hits, and in general,
you know, parlays have been profitable for us. It's a
situation where you know, you hit two out of three straits,
but you lose the parlay and then you're drinking a
little bit of juice. It's it's a losing pop proposition.
(31:06):
So adding in these extra straight plays that are not
affiliated with parlays, I really like, I'm happy that we've
done this, and I'm happy that it was a rewarding
month of February for us.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Yeah, it was good.
Speaker 4 (31:19):
But also don't forget we did pick up eight and
a half units on the Josh Allen Future too, and
without that the months and in the red.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Yeah, and and that is Debbie Downer.
Speaker 3 (31:31):
The I'm just saying that, Yeah, that's going off on
how much you love all these extra plays.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Well it's a little bit, you know, break even slightly
to the negative.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
But because of the parlays, ultimately it was a it
was a bad parlay month. But that's not a reflection
of the straits. You know, the parlays. I will tell
you the parlays. We lost Ballpark twelve units last month. Yeah,
so that's you know, again, it's and and I don't
(32:02):
even I didn't keep count of how many times we
went two out of three, but holy Christ, like right
it it must have happened at least ten times.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
Yeah, that's why they say parlays are the devil's work.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
Sure, yeah, I mean, look, there there are people in
this space that hate parlays, and and I get it,
like they think it's just a it's such a stupid
way to gamble to bet. You know, it's it's it's
unnecessary risk, it's minus EV. And it's not always the case.
You can have plus EV parlays if you know you
(32:37):
beat the number and and you know you're you're shopping
things around and all of that. You know, we've had
plenty of plus EV and positive CLV plays that have
have just not hit because the bets don't hit.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
You know.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
That's that's that's a whole other separate conversation. But it's
it's true. And unfortunately, and this is not us, but
there are a lot of people in the space. There
are a lot of you know, like tow people that
sell their picks, a lot of cappers out there on
social media, Like you don't see the volume of parlays
that people post that they lose, and you very rarely
(33:11):
see in a lot of these discords full day recaps,
you know, where you hit one out of like ten
parlays and it was still a losing day because it
wasn't even a massive parlay that you hit. You only
see the big lotto tickets that come forward, and those
are the people that get all the engagement on social
media because you know, everyone wants to jump in and
follow and ride that train. We don't do that here,
(33:33):
we don't, you know, we have I guess technically builders
are parlays because they're multiple legs, but those are a
different category, and you know those are even money, and
those are designed to build your bank roll, which on
the whole bankroll repairs are positive, like almost twenty units
for us. So those have done what they are supposed
to do. It's just a function of again cashing in
(33:54):
on more of these straits and hoping that there's a
little less of the two out of three and a
couple more of the three out of three because we've
done the math before. You know, even if we hit
four people's parlays in a month at all, but guarantees
a profitable month.
Speaker 4 (34:08):
So that's the goal, definitely, yeah, keep doing it, keep building.
Speaker 3 (34:12):
Speaking of goals, the wild are up four to three
Seattle on the board again, so that one might be
a little sweaty, but we're still on the right side
of it here in this moment. We will come on
back with more on the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. I
was just looking Dan and.
Speaker 2 (34:33):
Luka.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
Doncic's RA line rebounds plus assists was fifteen and a
half going into this game tonight, which you know, we're
always talking lately about his scoring prowess, and you know,
over under, how do you go, how do you read
him twenty three in this game tonight? But is he
just cashed mid third not even mid third yet? On
(34:56):
the rebounds plus assists, has sixteen six rebounds, ten boards
in the games since he has joined this team. We
saw fifteen last time out. I don't know what the
line was, but he had six rebounds nine assists the
game before that was a bit of a dud for
him in that way. He scored thirty one points as
(35:16):
the game against the Clippers, the first one, but he
only had seven RA but in the previous games at
least after he kind of got his feet wet there,
you know, remove those first two in a Lakers' uniform.
The next four games, he went eleven and eight, ten
and seven, fifteen and twelve, thirteen and five. This feels
(35:37):
like something we should be paying attention to as far
as you know, not like auto plays. Obviously the books
catch up with that type of thing and doesn't cash
every single night, I realized, but his rebounds plus assist
combos are hitting more often than not.
Speaker 4 (35:53):
Definitely. Oh yeah, No, he's been doing He's been awesome,
without a doubt. I mean, I just like to look
against his score. Obviously doesn't seem like tonight's gonna go
my way on that one. But yeah, he's been just
doing like everything else besides scoring here and now he's
really got everything going for him. So he's been awesome,
and I think he's getting back into He's still not
(36:14):
in the best shape, but he's definitely getting closer to
being in pretty good shape as well too.
Speaker 3 (36:20):
We didn't mention it at all because we didn't really
have an NBA guest looking ahead to tomorrow's action, but
the Celtics are home heavy favorites against the Trailblazers ten
and a half point favorites right now, which to me
is really surprising, honestly, not that they're heavy favorites, but
that they're favored by quite that much given.
Speaker 2 (36:43):
That huge NDA.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
They've got a lengthy injury report of just pulling it
up here. Jalen Brown questionable, non COVID illness, Drew Holliday,
christapsperzingis both doubtful, So they're not going to play. Peyton
Pritchard probable, Jason Tatum with the right shoulder im pinchment questionable,
Derek White lower back intusion probable. This is a massive
(37:04):
stayaway spot.
Speaker 4 (37:05):
Oh definitely. And I mean we've talked about in the
Selter double digit favorites. You might even want to look
going against them.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Might look at Portland, honestly, because you might be getting
value in the number when dudes are ruled in.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
Thanks to our guest, check out the pod for Dan
Bryan and Madam Sea.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
You've been listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six 't eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 2 (37:38):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (37:39):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your podcasts,
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