March 10, 2025 • 48 mins
March 10, 2025: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guests Collin Wilson (@_collin1) from the Action Network and the Sports Gambling Podcast Network's Sean Green (@seantgreen). It's March. You've heard. But, the fun really gets going this week with the big boy conference tourneys. Wilson handicaps the brackets leading into Selection Sunday, then Green dissects Tuesday's board.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Locks, Leans and everything in between.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
It says here we should work in teams.
Speaker 3 (00:09):
It wants to be my spotner. I don't think you
should be doing too much gambling tonight.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Alan Gambling does anything about gambling, the fact gambling when
you know you're gonna win. Now back to Boston's only
nightly betting show, The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Listen on
the iHeartRadio app or your smart speaker.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Great stuff. I'm Joe Pi Sapia talking football. But let's
move to college hoops and a nice futures discussion. A
little bit later. Sean Green will join us from the
Sports Gambling Podcast Network. We'll look at Tuesday slate starts
nice and early once again, which is always a good
thing tis the season. But just looking through a little
bit of what we've had today. By the way, Towson
(00:58):
as a favorite outright. Northwestern State another dog that won outright,
Robert Morris favorite one didn't cover Wafford, basically a Pickham,
but a dog one point dog that one outright by
(01:21):
seven Troy dog one outright. Montana State was a one
point favorite one by twenty go figure. We still have
San Francisco and Gonzaga later with a big line on
that one, and a few other games that are in progress,
including Saint Mary's putting Pepperdine in its place. Portland State
is a four point favorite, down by eight early in
(01:42):
that contest to Idaho. Let's get into Cleveland State and
other favorites down early.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
I mean there was a lot of like one possession
just outside of a possession spreads today, right, So it
was it was a really tight day. And yeah, the dogs,
the dogs are barking.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
Just a good reminder of the time of the year
where we are on the calendar. Let's bring in Colin
Wilson from the Action Network, our pal over there, senior
writer on Twitter at Underscore Colin with two l's and
the number one Colin look wonderful time of the year, unless,
of course, you were invested in Townsend today. I'm wondering,
were you among the what felt like the entire college
(02:21):
basketball betting community that believed we were going to get
a convincing win on that side.
Speaker 5 (02:27):
No, actually I had.
Speaker 6 (02:30):
I was on Wallford the entire way that in that tournament,
and I did not bet them today because I had.
Speaker 5 (02:37):
A small future on them.
Speaker 6 (02:38):
So I'm a little upset with myself, kicking myself, So we'll.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
See how it goes.
Speaker 6 (02:42):
I'm trying to make that back here. I got some
money at the Pepperdine game. I wouldn't say it's completely over.
There's a nineteen point spread. We're hanging on by a
thread here with twelve minutes plus ago. So you know,
I just heard everybody out there. I think zag Is
actually might get a roll tonight. So we'll see how
that goes.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Well. We made that show official minus fourteen and half
a little while ago, so obviously hoping you're right, But
you know, obviously a bunch of conference tournaments are are
already underway. The big boys have not started yet. What
do you have your eyes on as this week continues
leading into selection Sunday.
Speaker 6 (03:15):
Yeah, I mean there's a lot of I think, really
people like long shots, and you know, there are some
conferences I just don't think it's worth going with a
long shot. I think the Atlantic tennantin bcu is is
just the head and to above everybody else, and the
teams that could beat them are in the bottom half
of the bracket. It doesn't look like they're going to
get any kind of resistance. I do think East Carolina
has a shot to make some noise in the American
(03:37):
I think they're thirty to one out there. They've been
the hottest team over the last month, and I think,
you know, when I handicap conference tournaments, I go when
I look at efficiency ratings and what you've done over
the past thirty days. I want to know the coldest
teams out there. I want to know the hottest teams
out there, and then I want to know if their
bracket has a good path.
Speaker 5 (03:55):
Well.
Speaker 6 (03:55):
For East Carolina is a sixth seed in the American
UTSA UA be lost like four games, all four games
they played East Carolina. East Carolina trump them there. They're
gonna have a little bit of a problem with North
Texas and the semi finals, but it is a game
where they played them extremely tight during the season, and
really with a thirty to one, I mean, you're not
trying to take that all the way to the championship.
(04:15):
You're looking for spots to hedge. So I think East
Carolina at the AAC is definitely one of those. And
then in the SEC, I am absolutely in love with
Texas A and M. I think twenty five to one
is the number that I got out there. This is
a team that has made the semi finals of the
SEC Tournament three consecutive years. One of the years they
(04:37):
made the finals, they didn't win, They lost to Alabama.
I think this is an Alabama and a Texas A
and M final. If you look at the way the
bracket sets up, it's just the way Buzz and Nato
it's run.
Speaker 5 (04:47):
Their teams.
Speaker 6 (04:47):
They always show up in these SEC tournaments. They always
make the semi finals and have made the finals more
recently since the pandemic season. Alabama has won two of
the past four years in the SEC Tournament. And you
take Texas A and M at twenty five to one,
and I love those are my two favorites out of
the SEC by far.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
So Colin.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
Everybody remembers NC State last year making that crazy run
through the ACC tournament, winning the tournament, then going all
the way to the final four. Is there a team
this week that you know, not necessarily going to go
on and win five games in five days, but maybe
one of these you know, big or lower seeds that
can pull off three or four wins this week and
you know, maybe start tomorrow or Wednesday and somehow they're
(05:27):
playing Saturday or Sunday. Is there anyone that you'd be
looking maybe to like kind of do that moneyline parlay
where you're taking them day by day here, I think
if there was.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
A this is going to be so off the grade.
Speaker 6 (05:37):
If there is a team I would take it day
by day on a money line parlay, it would be
a team like Utah Valley out of the whack. It's
just they're going to be, uh, you know, they're already
what plus two to fifty to win that conference, and
this should be absolutely something that they own. And if
you do a running parlay on them, it will be
better than the plus two fifty that they have out there.
So that is one team that I'm looking at. You see,
(05:58):
San Diego is also one of those teams that has
been the best kill shot team.
Speaker 5 (06:03):
If you do live betting in college basketball, you have
to know what kill shots are.
Speaker 6 (06:07):
Kill shots are ten ozer runs, and you see San
Diego has been the best in the nation. They average
like one point two kill shots per game. They are
going to run amok in the semi finals and the
championship here, so you know, you see San Diego is
the heavy favorite in the Big West. But I will
say this from a live betting standpoint, look for you
see San Diego when they're when they're lying.
Speaker 5 (06:26):
Live is not what it was from the closing line.
It could be a time to buy them.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
Well if I'm not mistaken. I don't know the numbers
in front of you, but you see San Diego it's
the best cover rate in all of college basketball. Right.
So when when you're looking at these spreads as they
come out, even when they're big, I mean, at what
point do you start to get scared off versus just
betting trends and sort of leaning into a team that's
(06:51):
just so good at covering the number.
Speaker 6 (06:53):
I do bet a lot of first and second half
trend because I do think that's a reflection of coaching
and a reflecting reflection of the raw and not a
lot of people have that information on first half and
second half of cover. So I do like it from
that standpoint. But when you get to a team like
UC San Diego, there's going to be like such a
heavy tax on them. You know they're going to be power.
I'm sorry, their spread is going to be a little
(07:15):
bit higher in their conference tournament because of what they've
been able to do, and you just have to kind
of find a spot where you know you can bet
them live, which they are a perfect live betting team.
So you have to be careful with the teams that
are overpriced in the market because right now they have
everybody's attention and generally that plays into March madness when
the team wins five in a row and they get
in there. Unless it's in cy State, You're right that
(07:36):
magical final four run where they won like won five games, right,
I mean, unless it's them, I think they're the only
outlier where they actually showed up in the tournament, were
able to continue that run up, But otherwise you were
just an overpriced team in the tournament.
Speaker 4 (07:49):
So the Big twelve is always fascinating. I mean, I know,
Houston's been going crazy as they normally do twenty seven
and four. This year, they're the one seed. DraftKings. DraftKings
has them priced I think at minus one all five
to win this tournament. But if you look at what
they've been doing lately, Colin, they've been kind of just
kind of just barely skating by here, sneaking by a
bunch of just wins in the single digits. I think
(08:10):
six or seven in a row here. They just had
a four point winning against Baylor on the road to
close things out. Is there someone in the Big twelve
that can knock them off this week?
Speaker 6 (08:19):
I absolutely love BYU to win that tournament. BYU has
been the hottest team. Kansas has actually been the coldest
team out there. They're down there on the Baylor side
of the bracket, you know, And I think this is
one of those things where this is a tournament that
historically does not favor big underdogs. I believe half of
(08:40):
the championship games have been one and two seeds. I
don't think a seed lower than the fifth has been
in the championship game over the past fifteen years. So,
you know, the two hottest teams that are going to
Oklahoma City or BYU in Colorado, but nobody's going to
be taking.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
A flyer on Colorado as a sixteenth set out there.
Speaker 6 (08:56):
And I talk about being the hottest team from an
efficiency standpoint, what they've done off offensively and defensively.
Speaker 5 (09:01):
So I like BYU's path.
Speaker 6 (09:03):
They haven't had a problem with Iowa State shouldn't have
a problem. They're getting Houston should be tough, but they
played them tough this year. And the great news about
Houston is is they're one of those teams that has
such massive swings of games that you can get a
kill shot run out of BYU, but b YU the
Kubs are definitely the team that I'm aiming for attend
to one in the Big twelve.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
We've got more with Colin Wilson from the Action Network
when we come on back back with you. We're talking
college oops here with Colin Wilson from the Action Network.
And Colin has a great write up on Project three
straight dot com with a breakdown of all the conference
(09:43):
tournaments and you know, giving out his pick some of
which he's obviously highlighted notes on each one, showing you
what the bracts look like. Unbelievable resource. Recommend people check
it out. It's available on his Twitter page. Colin sort
of a big picture conversation we've had on the show
a little bit recently. I was talking to somebody yesterday
just to take it to another level, and that is
(10:05):
the impact of these college at tourneys on the field
of sixty eight. For instance, many have said, you know, boy,
whichever team wins that Gonthlin, the SEC I'm gonna be
fading them opening weekend of the tournament because of just
the grind that it takes to win that conference tournament.
I don't know that they can go on a deep
run when they get into the true madness. Whereas the
(10:25):
flip side some of these other conferences, and Gonzaga was
used as a specific example, I like, not me, this
was the person I was talking to. I like Innzaga
that much more when we get into the real tournament.
If they go and win their conference tournament, just because
they're kind of getting primed, they're getting comfortable, they're getting
warmed up. How do you view sort of the yin
(10:47):
and yang of what this week and last week mean
for the next couple.
Speaker 5 (10:53):
Yeah, to me, it's about depth.
Speaker 6 (10:55):
And you know, I will use my alma mater for
an example. I'll use my Arkansas Razor. Right now, they're
two best players that do THEO and Bogie Fland are
both injured. Now there's a rumor out there that Bogue
is going to come back, but that is their two
best players out there. So that cuts their team their
rotation down to six players. So you know, we can
(11:15):
talk about, you know, taking five wins in a row
and then going to the NCAA tournament. But at some
point you have to avoid being in foul trouble, you
have to avoid having any more injuries, and you have
to avoid fatigue. And I think if you're a deeper
rotation eight or nine, you can obviously pull it off.
Speaker 5 (11:30):
But to me, it's all about depth of your bench
and then you know you have to hit. The biggest
thing that I always handicap in March madness.
Speaker 6 (11:38):
Is what is your free throw rate? Can you get
to the line and do you make your free throws?
Speaker 5 (11:41):
And do you have depth?
Speaker 6 (11:42):
And if you're a team that just you know, went
four days straight in your conference tournament and you have depth,
your legs are going to be a little bit more
fresher than everybody else.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
So I think that's really something to keep in mind.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
So as we look at the Big East COLN a
couple of weeks ago, we or maybe just me, I
swore off Yukon. I'm done, I'm not. I can't lose
any more money on them this year. And then they
go and they've won four straight here as they head
into the conference tournament, any chance the Huskies get this
thing rolling here going into next week.
Speaker 5 (12:10):
I gave up betting against them, like twelve fifteen months ago.
They're just impossible. They keep taking everybody's buddy.
Speaker 6 (12:17):
Yeah, this is a tough one, you know, because Yukon
is on the other side of the bracket from Saint
John's and Saint John's deserves to be the number one seed.
But I mean, they are a team that makes mistakes.
They do kind of forget that they're playing basketball at
times and have taken losses that they shouldn't have. Marquette
is another team that I know I'll be fading here
in this tournament. I know I'll be fading them in
March madness that they are a team that generally kind
(12:39):
of fades out this time of year. I don't think
you can count Ukan out. I do like Xavier a
lot here. They're the ones that have had the highest
efficiency change over the past month, and that really means
a lot. But at the same time, when I say that,
guess who's right there on their tail if Ukon right,
I mean they've had efficiency change of plus to their
(13:00):
power rating. Yukon's plus one point five. So if I
had to make a finals in this I'd say an
eleven to one, Xavier goes up againto Yukon and then
you've got a good hedge piece there. But you know,
Yukon is just one of those teams that you have
a hard time power rating and it's probably not proper
because right now on a neutral court, you make them
about to pick them against Marquette and a pick them
against Saint John's. But if you're taking in recency factor,
(13:22):
then obviously they're going to be the favorite in those games.
So I don't know, It's just one of those things
dlay and don't have to worry about. It's kind of
betting it's Patrick Mahomes. You just lay with Patrick Mahomes
and I don't have to worry about him taking money
out of your pocket. That's really kind of how I
feel about Ukon. But I'm just going to go on
the other side of the bracket and stick with the Xavier.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
I mentioned trends before, Colin, and you know, this is
the time of the year where people look for things
that obviously have been historically profitable. One thing that we
spent a lot of time talking about around this time
last year that I'm sure people will be drilling in
down on, you know, a week from now when outlining
the bracket once we have it and everything, and these
(13:59):
these ear league games, you know, even like tomorrow, so
it's relevant this week. You know, you old Oklahoma State
Cincinnati twelve thirty Eastern tip off, you know, first half unders?
Is that trend that people love? You know, these are
these are college kids, these are young kids, kids that
would love to be sleeping late. Now you've got to
get up and beat your absolute best early in the day,
and so offense can kind of you know, be a
(14:21):
little sloppy, a little ugly grind to a halted points.
Is this something that you look at even this week
before we get into the big dance.
Speaker 6 (14:29):
Oh, it's always one. There's one conference tournament that by
far sadly it's already over, and it's the Missouri Valley
Arch Madness is probably the most grueling, grind, ugliest under
set of teams that you've ever seen, Drake being i
think the slowest team in the nation and the most
teams in there.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
That are under went ten and one in Arch Madness,
didn't they Yeah, it's every year.
Speaker 6 (14:53):
I mean, it's just every year. And there's something about
the site lines too, like he also has to take
into account that in the first games, especially like in
they SEC tournament, when they play in these larger arenas,
some of these teams have never seen these shidelines before.
So if you've got a three point team and three
point and I've learned from college basketball about one of
the variables that you can never depend on is three
point varying. Sometimes you're hitting sixty percent, sometimes you're hitting
(15:15):
ten percent. And when you get some of these teams
that are so reliant on the three point shot and
they get into these bigger arenas, those arena seats are
empty because you're just you know, sometimes you're not in
a bigger tournament and your fans can't make the trip,
and so you're staring kind of into an abyss of
colored like blue or black seats.
Speaker 5 (15:32):
For your three point shot.
Speaker 6 (15:34):
And it really could be a problem for some teams.
And I think first half unders are definitely always a play.
I would look at the arena. I'd look to see
if the familiar ators, the familiarity these teams have with that.
But yeah, when you go back and talk about arch
Madinus unders unders unders unders, now just.
Speaker 4 (15:49):
Throw the big ten in here too. I cannot wait
to fade. The Michigan Wolverines and whoever they play, they.
Speaker 5 (15:57):
Are absolutely you know, it's funny.
Speaker 6 (15:59):
When I brought up their efficiency rankings, I was shocked
how far Michigan has fallen off through They have fallen
farther and it's not even close than anybody in the
Big Ten over the last thirty days of play, worse
than Purdue, Washington, Nebraska. They are going to be in
big trouble coming up here in this tournament. But if
you're looking for one team, and I kind of tweeted
(16:19):
this out this morning, there's one team in this bracket
they got a monster draw, and that would be Maryland.
Because if you look at the hottest teams just from
an efficiency rating over the past month, who are the
hottest teams, Well, believe it or not, it's Indiana, Northwestern Oregon, UCLA,
Michigan State.
Speaker 5 (16:35):
I just rattled off a whole.
Speaker 6 (16:36):
Bunch of teams that are playing in the top half
of the bracket. Maryland got a bunch of teams that
are barely treading water or just completely not doing well
down the stretch. So I mean, if you can survive Illinois,
I think you know the way Michigan has been lately.
I think you're looking at the terrafins being in the
championship here, so I think I got them at plus
four sixty this morning, but if they get taken some heat,
(16:57):
so definitely like Maryland in that tournament.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Great note, So before we let you go across the
board across all these futures specific to this week, do
you have a favorite one?
Speaker 2 (17:08):
Oh?
Speaker 5 (17:08):
Boy, you know I mentioned in the first segment. I'll
say it again.
Speaker 6 (17:11):
I really like Texas A and M at twenty five
to one. And I know the SEC is tough and everybody,
every team in there, thinks that they should make the tournament,
but there is something about them when they make it
to the SEC tournament, they just seem to be much
better at that than they are in the actual real dance.
You can't negate the fact that they're always in the
semi finals. You can't negate the fact they've made it
to the championship game and lost to one of the
(17:33):
best teams Alabama has ever had a couple of years ago.
I absolutely think the number is large enough to where
you let it ride for the first two games. You
get him into the semi finals, and you got something
to work.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
With once again Colin Wilson from the Action Network on
Twitter at underscore Colin with two l's and the number
one check out that write up I mentioned at Project
three straight dot com. It's right there on his bio
as well. Extensive extensive knowledge that he put forth on
every single conference, much of which you've heard over the
(18:03):
last couple of segments, but it's right there in print
if you didn't have time to write it all down. Colin,
Thanks so much. Man, will definitely be bugging you again
throughout the tournament. Thanks you for having me guys talk
you said absolutely. We'll be doing a lot more college
hoops in the next hour as well, with Sean Green
from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, looking specifically at tomorrow's
slate on the college hardwood. We'll come on back though,
(18:25):
with bank roll repairs for your Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
Now back to the Gambler with Adam Kauffman on sixt
eighty WRKO streaming live on the iHeartRadio app, or tell
your smart speaker to play WRKO on iHeartRadio. It's time
for your bankroll repair, powered by today's Collision.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Now bankroll repairs. Sorry, here's the deal today we gave
you a couple towsend played a role in sinking dance
that was unfortunate for honestly, not good for me either.
(19:10):
I'm disgusted with them as a matter of fact. For me,
my bank or repair plus one o two is live.
Two legs are in favorites in the NBA, the Celtics,
the Hawks. We are sweating out UNC Wilmington right now.
Come on by one with three and a half to go.
As I see it on the Action app maybe it's
a little further along, but just need a money line
(19:31):
win there. And then we've inadvertently double dipped on Gonzaga
because I put this out earlier in the day and
kind of forgot about it. But Gonzaga just on the
money line. Obviously we needed to cover the spread in
a separate bet, but Gonzaga on the money line. To
bring that home at plus one o two if again
UNC Wilmington takes care of business, but bank war repairs
for tomorrow. Where are we going?
Speaker 4 (19:51):
Dan?
Speaker 2 (19:51):
All right?
Speaker 4 (19:52):
Three legs. Guys kind of going for it a little
bit with this one, but I like you. We got
Central Connecticut State on the money line, Kansas State on
the money line, and fam you Florida A and M
on the money line. Put those three together plus one
thirty four on DK.
Speaker 3 (20:06):
Yeah, it's funny. I was looking at Florida A and
M as well. It's why I sometimes do think about
should we have joint bankroll repairs. But here's what I've got.
It's a four legger. The line that the leg that
predicts to be the sweatiest of the group, Grambling to
take care of business, Grambling State on the money line.
That is an early game, so we'll try and get it,
(20:27):
get it out of the way early two o'clock. Eastern
McNee State as well, two favorites, and then the NBA
two heavy heavy favorites, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons.
So again it's a lights late in the NBA to
marrow two just four games, I think, so Cleveland, Detroit,
McNeese State, Grambling State. That is minus one oh nine
on DraftKings. We'll come back more College OBEs Sean Green.
(20:52):
That was your bankroll repair.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Powered by Today's Collision with locations in Maldon, Chelsea, Stoneham,
and Dan. Check them out at Today's Collision dot com.
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly vetting show Gambling.
Speaker 3 (21:10):
I try to keep the gambling to animal. How do
you do that? But being good at it?
Speaker 1 (21:15):
It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman, streaming live on the
iHeartRadio app. Miss a moment, Subscribe to the podcast. Back
to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
We are back on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Thanks
so much for hanging out here with us, Adam, Dan Bryan.
A lot of great stuff in the last couple of
segments with Colin Wilson from the Action Network, college basketball
focused obviously looking ahead at futures, busy, busy week ahead
of selection Sunday on the College Hardwood. If you missed
any of that conversation, recommend you check it out. Obviously,
(21:51):
wherever you get your podcasts, search the full name of
the show. It will pomp up their rate review. Most importantly,
subscribe another guy that we love having on to talk
college basketball. Although these couple of segments, in addition to
a people's parlay for tomorrow, we'll be a little more
focused on tomorrow's slate because unlike today where it was
a little bit lighter, tomorrow we've got a good collection
(22:14):
of games starting nice and early, especially if you're on
the West Coast like Sean, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State Big
twelve Conference Tournament, twelve thirty Eastern tip and then the
basketball just continues on and on throughout the day right
until you know, late night when we're on. You got
a couple of nine to nine to thirty games. So Sean,
(22:35):
welcome in man. Best time of the year.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
Huh oh, yeah, it really is. I mean the madness
has begun. And yeah, you mentioned it, like nine thirty am.
I'm still drinking my coffee and you got you got
college basketball Conference Tournament action. You can't beat it, you
really can't. It's great.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
Well, and people on you know, this coast be staying
up late sweating Gonzaga in this contest that gets started
about it half hour, you know, fourteen and a half
fifteen and a half point favorites in this game going
up against San Francisco. The Dons obviously playing well of late,
but a lot of people just assuming as Gonzaga has
done so many times in this matchup. I won't call
(23:14):
it a rivalry, rolling, absolutely rolling. How do you pick
this game?
Speaker 2 (23:21):
Yeah? This is tough because, as you mentioned, Gonzaga. You know,
they've been good, but obviously not the Gonzaga old of
what you would expect. They did just play the Dons,
but that was a weird game, like they for whatever reason,
they decided to play that in the Chase Center, and
I was all over at Gonzaga then. But it's you know,
(23:43):
San Francisco has been good at home, obviously that's not
the case here.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
Geez.
Speaker 2 (23:49):
I'd probably take San Francisco on the points, just because
they got embarrassed there in the Chase Center. So I
don't love the Dons here, but I think you gotta
take them with the point. It's probably a hair too high.
Speaker 4 (24:00):
So as we start to look towards tomorrow, let's start
right off with that early game. First game on the
board here, Cincinnati Oklahoma State Sewan. Cincinnati kind of borderline
free falling into this tournament here. They've lost three in
a row, including their their latest game to Oklahoma State
where the Cowboys beat them by eleven points. Cincinnati's favored
by six and a half tomorrow on a neutral court.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Who you got, yeah, I know, it's these are these
games are always so weird. Where they just played in
the regular season and then they're playing in the conference tournament,
and you you try and rack your brain like, oh
the instant revenge or wait, hey they're they're they're favorite,
even though they just got their bunts kicked. The lie,
they must know something. All I know is that Cincinnati.
(24:42):
You're right, they kind of have been a disappointment. Five
and a half. I think that's that's that's too high
for the Cincinnati team. I don't love Oklahoma Sate on
the money line, but you know Oklahoma State and the point.
So what do you guys see into that now? Because
I've seen it like five and a half.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
We've got a six and a half out there still
right now.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Yeah, I would take the six and a half. That's
a good number.
Speaker 3 (25:03):
A couple of teams are very good, yeah. A couple
of teams that aren't very good, in fact, identical ten
and twenty one records, and that is Grambling State and
Alabama A and M. These two teams will be matching
up tomorrow in the Southwest Athletic Conference. Attorney and look,
it feels, honestly, I hate to do this because I
(25:27):
feel like I'm speaking bad things into existence. After what
happened to us today and happened to me personally as well.
Grambling State is feeling a little bit like Towson today,
like everybody loves it lay the number. You have to
make this pick. I'm looking and already seeing people all
over Grambling tomorrow here. I mean, what do you think
(25:50):
makes sense? Does it make sense to lay five to
five and a half? Feel what may grow to six
six and a half overnight here in this game?
Speaker 2 (25:59):
Yeah, I mean, you know, the slack is tough, but
actually I would look to the dog here. I'm seeing
Alabama A and M getting five and half points. You know,
the counter is pretty easy. I know they just played
Alabama A and M lost at Grambling there, but that
was you know, that's kind of I mean, I don't
(26:22):
have a strong angle on Alabama A and M. But
to me, it's more of a fate of Grambling at
this big of a number. So I will take Alabama
A and M and the points because to your point,
like these conference tournaments went in to down take the dog.
I know it's simplistic, but I'll go Alabama A and
M and the points.
Speaker 4 (26:38):
This one feels like it's too many points here too,
And that's Pittsburgh and Notre Dame in the ACC tournament.
The very first game in that tournament tomorrow, Sean, we
got the Panthers. They opened up as a four and
a half point favorite. DraftKings still hasn't as a four
and a half point favorite. But then you look across
the board here and you got MGM and ESPN Bet
have them just at three and a half. As this
(26:59):
number starting to move here a little bit. The Irish
have been pesky. They kind of hang around in games,
not saying they're necessarily going to pull off the upset here,
But would you take the points with Notre Dame?
Speaker 2 (27:12):
You know, in a lot of situations, I would, but
they this just sounds crazy. My buddy's a Notre Dame fan,
and he was going nuts. He was celebrating. He goes,
we're in the tournament. We're in the tournament. Of course,
he was talking about the you know, quadruple overtime against
Cal just to get them in the conference tournament. So
in a weird way, I think Notre Dame dumped the
(27:33):
gatorade in that Cal game, and at the very least
they're coming off a what is this a quadruple overtime game? Yeah,
and now you got to head out to Carolina there.
I think, not that I ever feel great laying points
have hit this season, but they do have the offense.
They hit their free throws seventy eight percent. I'll actually
(27:55):
take pitt lay in the number here. Normally I would
probably look to Notre Dame because but coming off that
quadruple overtime, I think you gotta take Ted here.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Big Twelve. You got TCU against Colorado, and TCU in
this one is laying a point and a half two
depending on where you look. You know, it's it's interesting.
A lot of the money early on anyway, and this
can change overnight, obviously, but right now a lot of
people are coming in on TCU. You got the horn
Frogs one and two against the spread in three meetings
(28:26):
with the Buffs since Colorado joined the Big Twelve last season.
You know, what are you thinking here with this one,
knowing that it's you know, it's so close to a
pick them.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Yeah, I mean I don't feel I don't feel great
with either of these teams, especially laying points. To me,
it's a close call. But you know, I in a
game where the spread two and a half and you
have a almost ten point difference at the line. I
know Colorado just beat him by twenty that was at home.
I think that was a nice little confidence boost for
(28:58):
this Colorado team that certainly needs so I'll take Colorado
on the points here, sitting at two and a half.
I would love to get that up to three, but
right now, yeah, it's still fire on the bus plus
two and a half.
Speaker 4 (29:10):
So Cal in Virginia Tech is an interesting line, Sean.
The Golden Bears favored by anywhere from two and a
half to three and a half out there. I know
Virginia Tech's got a lot of issues, but I'm inclined
to take the three and a half. Cal is one
in ten straight up anytime they've had to travel East
this season. This game's in Carolina, as you were talking about,
(29:30):
I've and that one win was by just three points.
So if this thing is over a possession, I think
I like the Hokies to keep it close.
Speaker 6 (29:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
No, I mean, especially Virginia Tech. Like obviously disappointing season,
but same reason why I'm fading Notre Dame and you
gotta fade Cal. Just simply off the travel spot with
the four OT. To me, that's enough to not want
to take them, you know, obviously not technically a road favorite,
but essentially a road favor because you're traveling and you're
laying points. I don't like that for kal So I'm
(30:02):
on Virginia Tech there.
Speaker 3 (30:04):
I'll throw a weird one here from the Southland conference
McNeese and Northwestern couple of states here and McNee state
is the numbers just starting to come out. We're seeing
twelve and a half at open not available on every
book just yet. You know, there are barely any write
ups for this game yet, other than you know, various
models just projecting McNee State to absolutely roll and maybe
(30:27):
win this game by twenty points. Is twelve and a
half too big a number though, once you get to
this time of year? Or is there just that big
a difference, big a disparity in talent between these two programs.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
You know, I was talking to my buddy and he
was I do a show with him. Doug is the
area and probably know him. Sure, he was onto an
angle that I like is these teams that are coming
off a game taking them in the first half. Obviously,
you know, Northwestern State just beat Texas A and m
(31:02):
Corpus Christy, so maybe take them in the first half,
little rest versus rusting. That being said, I do think
twelve and a half is a hair too high, but
maybe just identify the first half. I like that angle
of the team that's coming off the game, feeling a
little loose there and getting off to a good start back.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
To the ACC Syracuse. Adams alma mater takes on Florida
State tomorrow night, seven o'clock.
Speaker 2 (31:25):
Tip.
Speaker 4 (31:26):
Florida State just snapped their big losing streak where they
beat SMU at home. Syracuse, you don't really know what
team's gonna show up on a given night here. This
number is at two and a half in favor of
the Seminoles. Which way you're going here?
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Yeah, give me Syracuse No, And I'm saying I'm fando
I think is a three and a half.
Speaker 4 (31:46):
I do FanDuel has a three and a half.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
Yeah, if you can get that over a full three there,
I definitely like that. Again, this just goes back to
like the idea that I don't know in Florida State.
What have they done this season to be favored by
three and a half on a neutral here? And you
know you can you can certainly make a case here
for Syracuse. Also, if you, uh, you want to become
(32:08):
a real d J. I think some of these long
shot teams, especially if you're talking about two fifty to one,
three hundred to one to win the ACC. I mean,
if you remember NC State last year went on a
crazy run to win the tournament. Like I obviously it's
very top heavy, but you don't know if those teams
aren't necessarily trying to win the entire thing. I wouldn't
(32:29):
be surprised if one of these teams gets on a
little bit of a run. Certainly not a full unit play,
but if you're if you want to live dangerously, uh,
you know, maybe put like five ten bucks on each
of these uh to win it all, I think is
a fun angle there. Again, two fifty to one, three
hundred to one, but I will take Syracuse in the
point there three and a half is too high for
(32:50):
Florida State.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
By the skin of our teeth. UNC Wilmington gets home
with a sixty eight sixty seven winning against the Cause Charleston,
which big for our money line parlay that we had
them on, uh and we're alive. It's all up to
Gonzaga now, which shouldn't in theory be as sweaty as
that one. We'll come on back with more with Sean
(33:12):
Green looking at tomorrow's slate in the college hardwood and
a people's parlay for you as well. Sewn Green's here
with us from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. We will
get into a people's parlay coming up in just a
little bit as we sweat obviously tonight's people's parlay. Still
(33:35):
that'll be we'll be sweating that till, you know, after
the show ends. Hopefully. Anyway, good start. These first couple
eggs cooperate, but yeah, good start. At the moment. Utah
is not going away quite yet. I saw that happen
two game but Toronto to you know, footback on the gas.
We're talking to college joops looking at tuesday slate with
(33:58):
Sean here and Kansas State against Arizona State. Kansas State
money line is just something that Dan has as part
of his builder for tomorrow a show play. But in
terms of the spread universally five and a half right now,
sean interesting spot. Arizona State's kind of you know, limped
into the conference attorney, and Kansas State has been playing
(34:19):
some pretty good basketball right now. Couple that with the
fact that the attorney is happening in definitely a less
hostile environment than it could be because the attorney is
in Kansas City. Should we expect KSU to cover the six.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
Yeah? No, I mean I had this projected. I'm surprised
that the spread has gotten this high. I get why
you would the appeal the money line there, you know,
case State with the essentially they home court crowd there,
But five and a half I think is high. So
I actually would take Arizona State in the points here.
(34:55):
You know, obviously they've struggled this season, but there was
since February on the one win once against Kansas State,
so you know, and that was a Kansas State, So
I think they'll be up for this game. I think
five and a half is just way too high. I
think they're factoring in. I think you should factor in
(35:15):
some home court advantage, but five and a half is
way too high. I have this, you know, on a
true neutral maybe one and a half even with the
home court. I don't think you should make it more
than three and a half. So I'll think Arizona State
in the five.
Speaker 5 (35:29):
And a half.
Speaker 4 (35:30):
All right, let's finish up the big twelve slate for
tomorrow with this UCF Utah game tomorrow night, Sean look
at anytime Utah is away from home. I love to
just fade them, but UCF isn't exactly the most consistent
team either. My instinct is to go with the Knights
here on the money line at a nice little plus
one zero five number, But I don't know. Utah is
(35:51):
so volatile. They could show up tonight and shoot the
lights out. I have no idea what to make of
this one.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
No, that's fair, I'm going to fade Utah. I think
after that that BYU game, I think was tough for them.
They were hanging around. They were hanging around, and.
Speaker 6 (36:06):
Then they did back door and if you depending on when.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
You, yeah, I look, that was awful. The way I
fell asleep woke up the next morning expecting to see
that it cashed and it did not. It was it
was awful.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
Yeah, I even I got the eleven and it was
just the ugliest, worst push of all time. But I mean, yeah,
it was as high as like twelve and a half whatever.
I think that was kind of a It sounds weird,
but I think it was kind of a little letdown
opportunity for them. You go to the Holy War, you
kind of hang around against Yu and you just can't
(36:39):
get it done. And obviously they back door it or
they push it, depending But I think I think this
is a good spot for UCF. I think in a
close game, if you're given if I would much rather
take the team that's thirteen percentage points better at the line.
So I'm with you. I'm taking UCF here.
Speaker 3 (36:58):
Guys are going to bring this to New Wing England
for giggles here, let's talk about Vermont and Maine America
East Conference attorney tomorrow night. Yet I know Vermont three
and a half to four and a half point favor
depending on where you look around here. And look, there's
there's a recent history between these teams. Obviously they matched
up twice last month. Vermont won both, but they were
(37:21):
nail biters, you know, one by six and then one
by four. And so what should the expectations be when again,
we're seeing a four or a five effectively here in
this one.
Speaker 2 (37:33):
Yeah, I'm seeing as low as three and a half.
I'll take the lays of three and a half with Vermont.
I get again, it's kind of like it's almost a
Gonzaga ask it where, it's like, yeah, it's kind of
a down year compared to what they've normally dominated. Like
usually when you look at see American East Conference tournament odds,
it's like Vermont by a landslide. Not the case this year.
(37:54):
You're getting plus money on Vermont for the tournament. I
got a little sprinkle there, I think around plus two thirty,
And yeah, I think they're gonna get it done against Maine.
I get why, you know, you could be intrigued by
taking me in the points, but I think that there's
just an institutional knowledge of how to get it done
here in these conference tournaments. So I will I'll take
Vermont in the history of how well they've done in
(38:16):
this tournament. And obviously they're red hot, they're Vermont, but yeah,
I'll lay the number with Vermont.
Speaker 4 (38:23):
So the line just came out, guys. For the CAAA
Final tomorrow night, Delaware plays UNC Wilmington. Wilmington's favored by
seven and a half here in this one look at
these could be famous last words, but there is no
way Delaware is going dancing. They have played this will
be their fifth game in five days. Wilmington beat them
by thirty. The last time they've played. They beat them
(38:45):
by ten the time before. Do you just lay the
seven and a half here? What's your strategy going into
this one?
Speaker 2 (38:53):
I know it's I'm with you in wanting to fade Delaware,
but it's such a fun story. That being said, UNC Wilmington,
you know they got it done, but that was a
bit of a sweat. They didn't cover the number. I'll go,
I'll go you and you know what, no, give me
Delaware in the points. This is I don't want to
be on the opposite. I don't want to. I don't
(39:14):
well because if it comes down to I get the
case for Wilmington, but I don't want to root against
this Delaware story. Delaware somehow making in the tournament would
be too funny. So I'll take Delaware at the points.
Speaker 3 (39:28):
There are a lot of games tomorrow, as mentioned, We've
thrown a lot at you, obviously, but I'm sure you
have some favorite plays outside of whatever you give us
for the People's parlay here in a little bit that
you've already got in pocket for tomorrow. What what jumps
out at you as far as games that we haven't covered.
Speaker 2 (39:46):
Yeah, that's a good question. Well, you know, one we
didn't really discuss is the whack here Utah Tech versus
the Southern Utah. I think that's kind of intriguing. This
one's interesting because I don't think they're really factoring in
as much as they should Utah or sorry, Southern Utah's
(40:06):
home court advantage here. So I do like Southern Utah here.
The numbers pretty shory short three and a half. I
like them there as a home dog. I don't think
they're really factoring in the home court advantage here against
Utah Tech. So I'll go a little off the board
here and take Southern Utah in the point plus three
(40:27):
and a half.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
All right, why don't we get to the people's parlay, fellas,
And as we always do, we like to recite the
statistics for better or worse. That is no judgment on Sean,
because I don't know what the numbers are until I
look them up two and three on your official show plays.
The parlays, however, are one and four, which means collectively,
we need to get ourselves together here in this wonderful
(40:52):
month of March. So let's see if Sean can even
things up on his end and we can bring this
parlay to a profitable situation as well. Let's get into it, John,
your favorite play for tomorrow?
Speaker 2 (41:05):
Go ahead, give me the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers lay in
four and a half against Florida International as Kobe likes
to call them, aka the Airport like the Hilltoppers a
ton in this spot and FIU, you know, bottom of
the conference when it comes to turnovers is something that
(41:26):
I always like to fade here. Their offense is just
super inefficient. I don't think they're gonna be able to
keep up with Western Kentucky here, So yeah, give me
give me Western Kentucky laying the number.
Speaker 3 (41:37):
Dan.
Speaker 4 (41:38):
All right, guys, I'm gonna take us out to the
Big Sky and let's lay the points with Northern Colorado
tomorrow night. Who's gonna take on Montana State? Who advanced today?
The Northern Colorado has won both matchups this season. This
is also a best bet from my model, saying that
this number should actually be a little over five between
these two teams, and also Montana State this year when
(41:59):
they are priced as an underdog two and nine against
the spread. So let's go Northern Colorado minus three and
a half.
Speaker 3 (42:06):
Okay, listen, I could stay in the world of college
basketball and give us a nice clean college hoops people's parlay.
I'm not gonna do it. Not gonna do it. There'll
be plenty of those coming up. I'm taking us to
the NBA, where we've got just this light, little four
game slate tomorrow. I'm investing in the road Bucks to
(42:27):
cover three points, two and a half points actually at
DraftKings at Indiana tomorrow night. You know there, Look, there
are some bad numbers and I'll share them with you
just so you can be aware, full transparency. The Bucks
are seventeen or twelve, seventeen and one on the road
against the spread, whereas the Pacers fifteen twelve and one
(42:48):
at home ats. Neither of these teams is, you know,
riding a particularly interesting trend in either direction. That being said,
I'm just looking at talent on Talent is probable to
play in this one. I would expect to see him
out there. Obviously. If you know, something were to happen
that changes that, well, that's you know, bad on me.
(43:09):
But Indy played tonight. It's a back to back. I
realized there's no travel. I'm back in the rested Bucks,
who have just been sitting there and waiting their turn
to take care of business tomorrow night, and Brian here
has shopped it around. Looks like DraftKings, probably in part
because of the bucks line. Is the best place for
this number or for this parlay? Plus six five? This
(43:33):
people's parlay fellas to mety one. Let's bring this one home.
Speaker 2 (43:38):
Adam, real quick. I like that play. Indiana is very
bad on back to backs two and seven ahs, So
just throwing that nugget out there.
Speaker 3 (43:47):
See that I give you a bad number, he gives
you a good one. This is right here. I love it. Yeah,
So well back the bucks Western Kentucky and Dan gave
a what'd you give us again?
Speaker 2 (43:58):
Dan?
Speaker 4 (43:59):
Northern Colorado?
Speaker 3 (44:00):
Northern Colorado? That's right, minus three and a half. So
we'll load that into the action app. Everything will be
available to you their as we track tonight's People's parlay
as well. But awesome stuff, awesome time of the year,
and Sean always awesome for joining us. We will definitely
be bothering him throughout the next few weeks. Here plenty
of college basketball on the way here and soon enough
(44:21):
brackets for us to fill out too. Sewan, thanks so.
Speaker 2 (44:24):
Much, man, appreciate it. Thanks for having me guys.
Speaker 3 (44:28):
Absolutely. Sean is again from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network
on Twitter at Sean that is Sea n T. Green.
We'll come on back mix in a little bit more football.
Some big baseball news concerning your Boston Red Sox that
we should discuss as well. So we need one more
(44:51):
assist out of Draymond Green in the final nine minutes
of a game Golden State leads by fifteen points against
the Trailblazers. Hopefully he can get that done for us,
obviously and keep things alive with this people's parlay. But
what I wanted to bring up related to this game
and my fault, I take ownership of this. You know,
Brian brought up Steph Curry or both of you brought
(45:16):
up I don't remember who brought up seven threes away
from from hitting this big benchmark. You know, could could
we consider laddering them up? Is it worth investing? And
what I was going to suggest as a narrative play
was just going over his base number of threes over
(45:36):
four and a half, just to you know, I mean,
it fits the description perfectly obviously. And you know, we
went to break, we came back the game was basically
tipping off. We gave out the details for the parlay
game got underway, sort of slipped my mind as we
went into our guest with Joe pisa Pa at the time,
I didn't do it. And wouldn't you know, Steph Curry
is five for seven from three, So not only has
(46:00):
he hit that over four and a half guys, two
more threes tonight. It's pretty realistic.
Speaker 4 (46:05):
Yeah, I would say so. I mean, up fifteen here,
if Portland can hang around for the next couple of minutes, yep,
hopefully Draymond assists on one of them.
Speaker 3 (46:16):
So we should have had that.
Speaker 2 (46:17):
I am.
Speaker 3 (46:19):
I'm saddened by the fact that we did not tack
on that unit. Felt like a freebie and uh oh, well,
these things happen. Do you think that you will be
you know, like we this year we've added more volume
obviously than we were certainly doing it this time last year.
Do you think that you will add more show plays
(46:40):
in the world of college basketball, be it builders or
just straight plays here during maybe even this week in
conference turney action and then obviously once we get to
the real craziness.
Speaker 4 (46:50):
Yeah, I would say so. I mean, I'm hoping that
we're gonna do the same thing that we did. I'm
really looking forward to next Monday night when we all
unveil our our final fours and all that kind of
stuff that was a lot of fun last year and
just seeing it we're all in unison again, I don't
think I don't think we will be this year.
Speaker 3 (47:06):
I don't think we will be either. There isn't that
Yukon felt like this just ourhouse over.
Speaker 4 (47:11):
Auburn's kind of falling off. I mean, Duke, if they
roll through the ACC is going to get a lot
of love, I feel like going into next week, but
those are really the only two at the moment right now.
But I'm really looking forward that forward to that next
week and all those different futures that we're gonna put
out and that kind of stuff. But yeah, I could definitely.
I mean I had some really good, nice success over
(47:32):
the weekend with just little builders. I mean, there's so
many lines here that are right around, like you know,
three and a half, four, four and a half. You
just pair up a couple of money lines and you
can get yourself some nice little payouts there. And I
did one tonight with Nichols and unc Wilmington paid out
at plus one fifty could.
Speaker 3 (47:47):
Have made that show official.
Speaker 4 (47:48):
Dan, I debated, but I thought that was a little
aggressive for a br But you know I stand corrected
with my actual br. Miss.
Speaker 3 (47:55):
Yes, Sometimes sometimes we just got to go, you know,
go for it. Thanks again to again both Shawn Green,
Colin Wilson, Joe Pisapia, Aton Shander. So much college hoop
this week. It's going to be a blast for Dan
and Bryan and Madam. See you.
Speaker 1 (48:13):
You've been listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six point eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 3 (48:28):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (48:29):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Locks, Leans and everything in between.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
It says here we should work in teams.
Speaker 3 (00:09):
It wants to be my spotner. I don't think you
should be doing too much gambling tonight.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Alan Gambling does anything about gambling, the fact gambling when
you know you're gonna win. Now back to Boston's only
nightly betting show, The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Listen on
the iHeartRadio app or your smart speaker.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Great stuff. I'm Joe Pi Sapia talking football. But let's
move to college hoops and a nice futures discussion. A
little bit later. Sean Green will join us from the
Sports Gambling Podcast Network. We'll look at Tuesday slate starts
nice and early once again, which is always a good
thing tis the season. But just looking through a little
bit of what we've had today. By the way, Towson
(00:58):
as a favorite outright. Northwestern State another dog that won outright,
Robert Morris favorite one didn't cover Wafford, basically a Pickham,
but a dog one point dog that one outright by
(01:21):
seven Troy dog one outright. Montana State was a one
point favorite one by twenty go figure. We still have
San Francisco and Gonzaga later with a big line on
that one, and a few other games that are in progress,
including Saint Mary's putting Pepperdine in its place. Portland State
is a four point favorite, down by eight early in
(01:42):
that contest to Idaho. Let's get into Cleveland State and
other favorites down early.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
I mean there was a lot of like one possession
just outside of a possession spreads today, right, So it
was it was a really tight day. And yeah, the dogs,
the dogs are barking.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
Just a good reminder of the time of the year
where we are on the calendar. Let's bring in Colin
Wilson from the Action Network, our pal over there, senior
writer on Twitter at Underscore Colin with two l's and
the number one Colin look wonderful time of the year, unless,
of course, you were invested in Townsend today. I'm wondering,
were you among the what felt like the entire college
(02:21):
basketball betting community that believed we were going to get
a convincing win on that side.
Speaker 5 (02:27):
No, actually I had.
Speaker 6 (02:30):
I was on Wallford the entire way that in that tournament,
and I did not bet them today because I had.
Speaker 5 (02:37):
A small future on them.
Speaker 6 (02:38):
So I'm a little upset with myself, kicking myself, So we'll.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
See how it goes.
Speaker 6 (02:42):
I'm trying to make that back here. I got some
money at the Pepperdine game. I wouldn't say it's completely over.
There's a nineteen point spread. We're hanging on by a
thread here with twelve minutes plus ago. So you know,
I just heard everybody out there. I think zag Is
actually might get a roll tonight. So we'll see how
that goes.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Well. We made that show official minus fourteen and half
a little while ago, so obviously hoping you're right, But
you know, obviously a bunch of conference tournaments are are
already underway. The big boys have not started yet. What
do you have your eyes on as this week continues
leading into selection Sunday.
Speaker 6 (03:15):
Yeah, I mean there's a lot of I think, really
people like long shots, and you know, there are some
conferences I just don't think it's worth going with a
long shot. I think the Atlantic tennantin bcu is is
just the head and to above everybody else, and the
teams that could beat them are in the bottom half
of the bracket. It doesn't look like they're going to
get any kind of resistance. I do think East Carolina
has a shot to make some noise in the American
(03:37):
I think they're thirty to one out there. They've been
the hottest team over the last month, and I think,
you know, when I handicap conference tournaments, I go when
I look at efficiency ratings and what you've done over
the past thirty days. I want to know the coldest
teams out there. I want to know the hottest teams
out there, and then I want to know if their
bracket has a good path.
Speaker 5 (03:55):
Well.
Speaker 6 (03:55):
For East Carolina is a sixth seed in the American
UTSA UA be lost like four games, all four games
they played East Carolina. East Carolina trump them there. They're
gonna have a little bit of a problem with North
Texas and the semi finals, but it is a game
where they played them extremely tight during the season, and
really with a thirty to one, I mean, you're not
trying to take that all the way to the championship.
(04:15):
You're looking for spots to hedge. So I think East
Carolina at the AAC is definitely one of those. And
then in the SEC, I am absolutely in love with
Texas A and M. I think twenty five to one
is the number that I got out there. This is
a team that has made the semi finals of the
SEC Tournament three consecutive years. One of the years they
(04:37):
made the finals, they didn't win, They lost to Alabama.
I think this is an Alabama and a Texas A
and M final. If you look at the way the
bracket sets up, it's just the way Buzz and Nato
it's run.
Speaker 5 (04:47):
Their teams.
Speaker 6 (04:47):
They always show up in these SEC tournaments. They always
make the semi finals and have made the finals more
recently since the pandemic season. Alabama has won two of
the past four years in the SEC Tournament. And you
take Texas A and M at twenty five to one,
and I love those are my two favorites out of
the SEC by far.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
So Colin.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
Everybody remembers NC State last year making that crazy run
through the ACC tournament, winning the tournament, then going all
the way to the final four. Is there a team
this week that you know, not necessarily going to go
on and win five games in five days, but maybe
one of these you know, big or lower seeds that
can pull off three or four wins this week and
you know, maybe start tomorrow or Wednesday and somehow they're
(05:27):
playing Saturday or Sunday. Is there anyone that you'd be
looking maybe to like kind of do that moneyline parlay
where you're taking them day by day here, I think
if there was.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
A this is going to be so off the grade.
Speaker 6 (05:37):
If there is a team I would take it day
by day on a money line parlay, it would be
a team like Utah Valley out of the whack. It's
just they're going to be, uh, you know, they're already
what plus two to fifty to win that conference, and
this should be absolutely something that they own. And if
you do a running parlay on them, it will be
better than the plus two fifty that they have out there.
So that is one team that I'm looking at. You see,
(05:58):
San Diego is also one of those teams that has
been the best kill shot team.
Speaker 5 (06:03):
If you do live betting in college basketball, you have
to know what kill shots are.
Speaker 6 (06:07):
Kill shots are ten ozer runs, and you see San
Diego has been the best in the nation. They average
like one point two kill shots per game. They are
going to run amok in the semi finals and the
championship here, so you know, you see San Diego is
the heavy favorite in the Big West. But I will
say this from a live betting standpoint, look for you
see San Diego when they're when they're lying.
Speaker 5 (06:26):
Live is not what it was from the closing line.
It could be a time to buy them.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
Well if I'm not mistaken. I don't know the numbers
in front of you, but you see San Diego it's
the best cover rate in all of college basketball. Right.
So when when you're looking at these spreads as they
come out, even when they're big, I mean, at what
point do you start to get scared off versus just
betting trends and sort of leaning into a team that's
(06:51):
just so good at covering the number.
Speaker 6 (06:53):
I do bet a lot of first and second half
trend because I do think that's a reflection of coaching
and a reflecting reflection of the raw and not a
lot of people have that information on first half and
second half of cover. So I do like it from
that standpoint. But when you get to a team like
UC San Diego, there's going to be like such a
heavy tax on them. You know they're going to be power.
I'm sorry, their spread is going to be a little
(07:15):
bit higher in their conference tournament because of what they've
been able to do, and you just have to kind
of find a spot where you know you can bet
them live, which they are a perfect live betting team.
So you have to be careful with the teams that
are overpriced in the market because right now they have
everybody's attention and generally that plays into March madness when
the team wins five in a row and they get
in there. Unless it's in cy State, You're right that
(07:36):
magical final four run where they won like won five games, right,
I mean, unless it's them, I think they're the only
outlier where they actually showed up in the tournament, were
able to continue that run up, But otherwise you were
just an overpriced team in the tournament.
Speaker 4 (07:49):
So the Big twelve is always fascinating. I mean, I know,
Houston's been going crazy as they normally do twenty seven
and four. This year, they're the one seed. DraftKings. DraftKings
has them priced I think at minus one all five
to win this tournament. But if you look at what
they've been doing lately, Colin, they've been kind of just
kind of just barely skating by here, sneaking by a
bunch of just wins in the single digits. I think
(08:10):
six or seven in a row here. They just had
a four point winning against Baylor on the road to
close things out. Is there someone in the Big twelve
that can knock them off this week?
Speaker 6 (08:19):
I absolutely love BYU to win that tournament. BYU has
been the hottest team. Kansas has actually been the coldest
team out there. They're down there on the Baylor side
of the bracket, you know, And I think this is
one of those things where this is a tournament that
historically does not favor big underdogs. I believe half of
(08:40):
the championship games have been one and two seeds. I
don't think a seed lower than the fifth has been
in the championship game over the past fifteen years. So,
you know, the two hottest teams that are going to
Oklahoma City or BYU in Colorado, but nobody's going to
be taking.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
A flyer on Colorado as a sixteenth set out there.
Speaker 6 (08:56):
And I talk about being the hottest team from an
efficiency standpoint, what they've done off offensively and defensively.
Speaker 5 (09:01):
So I like BYU's path.
Speaker 6 (09:03):
They haven't had a problem with Iowa State shouldn't have
a problem. They're getting Houston should be tough, but they
played them tough this year. And the great news about
Houston is is they're one of those teams that has
such massive swings of games that you can get a
kill shot run out of BYU, but b YU the
Kubs are definitely the team that I'm aiming for attend
to one in the Big twelve.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
We've got more with Colin Wilson from the Action Network
when we come on back back with you. We're talking
college oops here with Colin Wilson from the Action Network.
And Colin has a great write up on Project three
straight dot com with a breakdown of all the conference
(09:43):
tournaments and you know, giving out his pick some of
which he's obviously highlighted notes on each one, showing you
what the bracts look like. Unbelievable resource. Recommend people check
it out. It's available on his Twitter page. Colin sort
of a big picture conversation we've had on the show
a little bit recently. I was talking to somebody yesterday
just to take it to another level, and that is
(10:05):
the impact of these college at tourneys on the field
of sixty eight. For instance, many have said, you know, boy,
whichever team wins that Gonthlin, the SEC I'm gonna be
fading them opening weekend of the tournament because of just
the grind that it takes to win that conference tournament.
I don't know that they can go on a deep
run when they get into the true madness. Whereas the
(10:25):
flip side some of these other conferences, and Gonzaga was
used as a specific example, I like, not me, this
was the person I was talking to. I like Innzaga
that much more when we get into the real tournament.
If they go and win their conference tournament, just because
they're kind of getting primed, they're getting comfortable, they're getting
warmed up. How do you view sort of the yin
(10:47):
and yang of what this week and last week mean
for the next couple.
Speaker 5 (10:53):
Yeah, to me, it's about depth.
Speaker 6 (10:55):
And you know, I will use my alma mater for
an example. I'll use my Arkansas Razor. Right now, they're
two best players that do THEO and Bogie Fland are
both injured. Now there's a rumor out there that Bogue
is going to come back, but that is their two
best players out there. So that cuts their team their
rotation down to six players. So you know, we can
(11:15):
talk about, you know, taking five wins in a row
and then going to the NCAA tournament. But at some
point you have to avoid being in foul trouble, you
have to avoid having any more injuries, and you have
to avoid fatigue. And I think if you're a deeper
rotation eight or nine, you can obviously pull it off.
Speaker 5 (11:30):
But to me, it's all about depth of your bench
and then you know you have to hit. The biggest
thing that I always handicap in March madness.
Speaker 6 (11:38):
Is what is your free throw rate? Can you get
to the line and do you make your free throws?
Speaker 5 (11:41):
And do you have depth?
Speaker 6 (11:42):
And if you're a team that just you know, went
four days straight in your conference tournament and you have depth,
your legs are going to be a little bit more
fresher than everybody else.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
So I think that's really something to keep in mind.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
So as we look at the Big East COLN a
couple of weeks ago, we or maybe just me, I
swore off Yukon. I'm done, I'm not. I can't lose
any more money on them this year. And then they
go and they've won four straight here as they head
into the conference tournament, any chance the Huskies get this
thing rolling here going into next week.
Speaker 5 (12:10):
I gave up betting against them, like twelve fifteen months ago.
They're just impossible. They keep taking everybody's buddy.
Speaker 6 (12:17):
Yeah, this is a tough one, you know, because Yukon
is on the other side of the bracket from Saint
John's and Saint John's deserves to be the number one seed.
But I mean, they are a team that makes mistakes.
They do kind of forget that they're playing basketball at
times and have taken losses that they shouldn't have. Marquette
is another team that I know I'll be fading here
in this tournament. I know I'll be fading them in
March madness that they are a team that generally kind
(12:39):
of fades out this time of year. I don't think
you can count Ukan out. I do like Xavier a
lot here. They're the ones that have had the highest
efficiency change over the past month, and that really means
a lot. But at the same time, when I say that,
guess who's right there on their tail if Ukon right,
I mean they've had efficiency change of plus to their
(13:00):
power rating. Yukon's plus one point five. So if I
had to make a finals in this I'd say an
eleven to one, Xavier goes up againto Yukon and then
you've got a good hedge piece there. But you know,
Yukon is just one of those teams that you have
a hard time power rating and it's probably not proper
because right now on a neutral court, you make them
about to pick them against Marquette and a pick them
against Saint John's. But if you're taking in recency factor,
(13:22):
then obviously they're going to be the favorite in those games.
So I don't know, It's just one of those things
dlay and don't have to worry about. It's kind of
betting it's Patrick Mahomes. You just lay with Patrick Mahomes
and I don't have to worry about him taking money
out of your pocket. That's really kind of how I
feel about Ukon. But I'm just going to go on
the other side of the bracket and stick with the Xavier.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
I mentioned trends before, Colin, and you know, this is
the time of the year where people look for things
that obviously have been historically profitable. One thing that we
spent a lot of time talking about around this time
last year that I'm sure people will be drilling in
down on, you know, a week from now when outlining
the bracket once we have it and everything, and these
(13:59):
these ear league games, you know, even like tomorrow, so
it's relevant this week. You know, you old Oklahoma State
Cincinnati twelve thirty Eastern tip off, you know, first half unders?
Is that trend that people love? You know, these are
these are college kids, these are young kids, kids that
would love to be sleeping late. Now you've got to
get up and beat your absolute best early in the day,
and so offense can kind of you know, be a
(14:21):
little sloppy, a little ugly grind to a halted points.
Is this something that you look at even this week
before we get into the big dance.
Speaker 6 (14:29):
Oh, it's always one. There's one conference tournament that by
far sadly it's already over, and it's the Missouri Valley
Arch Madness is probably the most grueling, grind, ugliest under
set of teams that you've ever seen, Drake being i
think the slowest team in the nation and the most
teams in there.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
That are under went ten and one in Arch Madness,
didn't they Yeah, it's every year.
Speaker 6 (14:53):
I mean, it's just every year. And there's something about
the site lines too, like he also has to take
into account that in the first games, especially like in
they SEC tournament, when they play in these larger arenas,
some of these teams have never seen these shidelines before.
So if you've got a three point team and three
point and I've learned from college basketball about one of
the variables that you can never depend on is three
point varying. Sometimes you're hitting sixty percent, sometimes you're hitting
(15:15):
ten percent. And when you get some of these teams
that are so reliant on the three point shot and
they get into these bigger arenas, those arena seats are
empty because you're just you know, sometimes you're not in
a bigger tournament and your fans can't make the trip,
and so you're staring kind of into an abyss of
colored like blue or black seats.
Speaker 5 (15:32):
For your three point shot.
Speaker 6 (15:34):
And it really could be a problem for some teams.
And I think first half unders are definitely always a play.
I would look at the arena. I'd look to see
if the familiar ators, the familiarity these teams have with that.
But yeah, when you go back and talk about arch
Madinus unders unders unders unders, now just.
Speaker 4 (15:49):
Throw the big ten in here too. I cannot wait
to fade. The Michigan Wolverines and whoever they play, they.
Speaker 5 (15:57):
Are absolutely you know, it's funny.
Speaker 6 (15:59):
When I brought up their efficiency rankings, I was shocked
how far Michigan has fallen off through They have fallen
farther and it's not even close than anybody in the
Big Ten over the last thirty days of play, worse
than Purdue, Washington, Nebraska. They are going to be in
big trouble coming up here in this tournament. But if
you're looking for one team, and I kind of tweeted
(16:19):
this out this morning, there's one team in this bracket
they got a monster draw, and that would be Maryland.
Because if you look at the hottest teams just from
an efficiency rating over the past month, who are the
hottest teams, Well, believe it or not, it's Indiana, Northwestern Oregon, UCLA,
Michigan State.
Speaker 5 (16:35):
I just rattled off a whole.
Speaker 6 (16:36):
Bunch of teams that are playing in the top half
of the bracket. Maryland got a bunch of teams that
are barely treading water or just completely not doing well
down the stretch. So I mean, if you can survive Illinois,
I think you know the way Michigan has been lately.
I think you're looking at the terrafins being in the
championship here, so I think I got them at plus
four sixty this morning, but if they get taken some heat,
(16:57):
so definitely like Maryland in that tournament.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Great note, So before we let you go across the
board across all these futures specific to this week, do
you have a favorite one?
Speaker 2 (17:08):
Oh?
Speaker 5 (17:08):
Boy, you know I mentioned in the first segment. I'll
say it again.
Speaker 6 (17:11):
I really like Texas A and M at twenty five
to one. And I know the SEC is tough and everybody,
every team in there, thinks that they should make the tournament,
but there is something about them when they make it
to the SEC tournament, they just seem to be much
better at that than they are in the actual real dance.
You can't negate the fact that they're always in the
semi finals. You can't negate the fact they've made it
to the championship game and lost to one of the
(17:33):
best teams Alabama has ever had a couple of years ago.
I absolutely think the number is large enough to where
you let it ride for the first two games. You
get him into the semi finals, and you got something
to work.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
With once again Colin Wilson from the Action Network on
Twitter at underscore Colin with two l's and the number
one check out that write up I mentioned at Project
three straight dot com. It's right there on his bio
as well. Extensive extensive knowledge that he put forth on
every single conference, much of which you've heard over the
(18:03):
last couple of segments, but it's right there in print
if you didn't have time to write it all down. Colin,
Thanks so much. Man, will definitely be bugging you again
throughout the tournament. Thanks you for having me guys talk
you said absolutely. We'll be doing a lot more college
hoops in the next hour as well, with Sean Green
from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, looking specifically at tomorrow's
slate on the college hardwood. We'll come on back though,
(18:25):
with bank roll repairs for your Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
Now back to the Gambler with Adam Kauffman on sixt
eighty WRKO streaming live on the iHeartRadio app, or tell
your smart speaker to play WRKO on iHeartRadio. It's time
for your bankroll repair, powered by today's Collision.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Now bankroll repairs. Sorry, here's the deal today we gave
you a couple towsend played a role in sinking dance
that was unfortunate for honestly, not good for me either.
(19:10):
I'm disgusted with them as a matter of fact. For me,
my bank or repair plus one o two is live.
Two legs are in favorites in the NBA, the Celtics,
the Hawks. We are sweating out UNC Wilmington right now.
Come on by one with three and a half to go.
As I see it on the Action app maybe it's
a little further along, but just need a money line
(19:31):
win there. And then we've inadvertently double dipped on Gonzaga
because I put this out earlier in the day and
kind of forgot about it. But Gonzaga just on the
money line. Obviously we needed to cover the spread in
a separate bet, but Gonzaga on the money line. To
bring that home at plus one o two if again
UNC Wilmington takes care of business, but bank war repairs
for tomorrow. Where are we going?
Speaker 4 (19:51):
Dan?
Speaker 2 (19:51):
All right?
Speaker 4 (19:52):
Three legs. Guys kind of going for it a little
bit with this one, but I like you. We got
Central Connecticut State on the money line, Kansas State on
the money line, and fam you Florida A and M
on the money line. Put those three together plus one
thirty four on DK.
Speaker 3 (20:06):
Yeah, it's funny. I was looking at Florida A and
M as well. It's why I sometimes do think about
should we have joint bankroll repairs. But here's what I've got.
It's a four legger. The line that the leg that
predicts to be the sweatiest of the group, Grambling to
take care of business, Grambling State on the money line.
That is an early game, so we'll try and get it,
(20:27):
get it out of the way early two o'clock. Eastern
McNee State as well, two favorites, and then the NBA
two heavy heavy favorites, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons.
So again it's a lights late in the NBA to
marrow two just four games, I think, so Cleveland, Detroit,
McNeese State, Grambling State. That is minus one oh nine
on DraftKings. We'll come back more College OBEs Sean Green.
(20:52):
That was your bankroll repair.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Powered by Today's Collision with locations in Maldon, Chelsea, Stoneham,
and Dan. Check them out at Today's Collision dot com.
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly vetting show Gambling.
Speaker 3 (21:10):
I try to keep the gambling to animal. How do
you do that? But being good at it?
Speaker 1 (21:15):
It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman, streaming live on the
iHeartRadio app. Miss a moment, Subscribe to the podcast. Back
to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
We are back on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Thanks
so much for hanging out here with us, Adam, Dan Bryan.
A lot of great stuff in the last couple of
segments with Colin Wilson from the Action Network, college basketball
focused obviously looking ahead at futures, busy, busy week ahead
of selection Sunday on the College Hardwood. If you missed
any of that conversation, recommend you check it out. Obviously,
(21:51):
wherever you get your podcasts, search the full name of
the show. It will pomp up their rate review. Most importantly,
subscribe another guy that we love having on to talk
college basketball. Although these couple of segments, in addition to
a people's parlay for tomorrow, we'll be a little more
focused on tomorrow's slate because unlike today where it was
a little bit lighter, tomorrow we've got a good collection
(22:14):
of games starting nice and early, especially if you're on
the West Coast like Sean, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State Big
twelve Conference Tournament, twelve thirty Eastern tip and then the
basketball just continues on and on throughout the day right
until you know, late night when we're on. You got
a couple of nine to nine to thirty games. So Sean,
(22:35):
welcome in man. Best time of the year.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
Huh oh, yeah, it really is. I mean the madness
has begun. And yeah, you mentioned it, like nine thirty am.
I'm still drinking my coffee and you got you got
college basketball Conference Tournament action. You can't beat it, you
really can't. It's great.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
Well, and people on you know, this coast be staying
up late sweating Gonzaga in this contest that gets started
about it half hour, you know, fourteen and a half
fifteen and a half point favorites in this game going
up against San Francisco. The Dons obviously playing well of late,
but a lot of people just assuming as Gonzaga has
done so many times in this matchup. I won't call
(23:14):
it a rivalry, rolling, absolutely rolling. How do you pick
this game?
Speaker 2 (23:21):
Yeah? This is tough because, as you mentioned, Gonzaga. You know,
they've been good, but obviously not the Gonzaga old of
what you would expect. They did just play the Dons,
but that was a weird game, like they for whatever reason,
they decided to play that in the Chase Center, and
I was all over at Gonzaga then. But it's you know,
(23:43):
San Francisco has been good at home, obviously that's not
the case here.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
Geez.
Speaker 2 (23:49):
I'd probably take San Francisco on the points, just because
they got embarrassed there in the Chase Center. So I
don't love the Dons here, but I think you gotta
take them with the point. It's probably a hair too high.
Speaker 4 (24:00):
So as we start to look towards tomorrow, let's start
right off with that early game. First game on the
board here, Cincinnati Oklahoma State Sewan. Cincinnati kind of borderline
free falling into this tournament here. They've lost three in
a row, including their their latest game to Oklahoma State
where the Cowboys beat them by eleven points. Cincinnati's favored
by six and a half tomorrow on a neutral court.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Who you got, yeah, I know, it's these are these
games are always so weird. Where they just played in
the regular season and then they're playing in the conference tournament,
and you you try and rack your brain like, oh
the instant revenge or wait, hey they're they're they're favorite,
even though they just got their bunts kicked. The lie,
they must know something. All I know is that Cincinnati.
(24:42):
You're right, they kind of have been a disappointment. Five
and a half. I think that's that's that's too high
for the Cincinnati team. I don't love Oklahoma Sate on
the money line, but you know Oklahoma State and the point.
So what do you guys see into that now? Because
I've seen it like five and a half.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
We've got a six and a half out there still
right now.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Yeah, I would take the six and a half. That's
a good number.
Speaker 3 (25:03):
A couple of teams are very good, yeah. A couple
of teams that aren't very good, in fact, identical ten
and twenty one records, and that is Grambling State and
Alabama A and M. These two teams will be matching
up tomorrow in the Southwest Athletic Conference. Attorney and look,
it feels, honestly, I hate to do this because I
(25:27):
feel like I'm speaking bad things into existence. After what
happened to us today and happened to me personally as well.
Grambling State is feeling a little bit like Towson today,
like everybody loves it lay the number. You have to
make this pick. I'm looking and already seeing people all
over Grambling tomorrow here. I mean, what do you think
(25:50):
makes sense? Does it make sense to lay five to
five and a half? Feel what may grow to six
six and a half overnight here in this game?
Speaker 2 (25:59):
Yeah, I mean, you know, the slack is tough, but
actually I would look to the dog here. I'm seeing
Alabama A and M getting five and half points. You know,
the counter is pretty easy. I know they just played
Alabama A and M lost at Grambling there, but that
was you know, that's kind of I mean, I don't
(26:22):
have a strong angle on Alabama A and M. But
to me, it's more of a fate of Grambling at
this big of a number. So I will take Alabama
A and M and the points because to your point,
like these conference tournaments went in to down take the dog.
I know it's simplistic, but I'll go Alabama A and
M and the points.
Speaker 4 (26:38):
This one feels like it's too many points here too,
And that's Pittsburgh and Notre Dame in the ACC tournament.
The very first game in that tournament tomorrow, Sean, we
got the Panthers. They opened up as a four and
a half point favorite. DraftKings still hasn't as a four
and a half point favorite. But then you look across
the board here and you got MGM and ESPN Bet
have them just at three and a half. As this
(26:59):
number starting to move here a little bit. The Irish
have been pesky. They kind of hang around in games,
not saying they're necessarily going to pull off the upset here,
But would you take the points with Notre Dame?
Speaker 2 (27:12):
You know, in a lot of situations, I would, but
they this just sounds crazy. My buddy's a Notre Dame fan,
and he was going nuts. He was celebrating. He goes,
we're in the tournament. We're in the tournament. Of course,
he was talking about the you know, quadruple overtime against
Cal just to get them in the conference tournament. So
in a weird way, I think Notre Dame dumped the
(27:33):
gatorade in that Cal game, and at the very least
they're coming off a what is this a quadruple overtime game? Yeah,
and now you got to head out to Carolina there.
I think, not that I ever feel great laying points
have hit this season, but they do have the offense.
They hit their free throws seventy eight percent. I'll actually
(27:55):
take pitt lay in the number here. Normally I would
probably look to Notre Dame because but coming off that
quadruple overtime, I think you gotta take Ted here.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Big Twelve. You got TCU against Colorado, and TCU in
this one is laying a point and a half two
depending on where you look. You know, it's it's interesting.
A lot of the money early on anyway, and this
can change overnight, obviously, but right now a lot of
people are coming in on TCU. You got the horn
Frogs one and two against the spread in three meetings
(28:26):
with the Buffs since Colorado joined the Big Twelve last season.
You know, what are you thinking here with this one,
knowing that it's you know, it's so close to a
pick them.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Yeah, I mean I don't feel I don't feel great
with either of these teams, especially laying points. To me,
it's a close call. But you know, I in a
game where the spread two and a half and you
have a almost ten point difference at the line. I
know Colorado just beat him by twenty that was at home.
I think that was a nice little confidence boost for
(28:58):
this Colorado team that certainly needs so I'll take Colorado
on the points here, sitting at two and a half.
I would love to get that up to three, but
right now, yeah, it's still fire on the bus plus
two and a half.
Speaker 4 (29:10):
So Cal in Virginia Tech is an interesting line, Sean.
The Golden Bears favored by anywhere from two and a
half to three and a half out there. I know
Virginia Tech's got a lot of issues, but I'm inclined
to take the three and a half. Cal is one
in ten straight up anytime they've had to travel East
this season. This game's in Carolina, as you were talking about,
(29:30):
I've and that one win was by just three points.
So if this thing is over a possession, I think
I like the Hokies to keep it close.
Speaker 6 (29:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
No, I mean, especially Virginia Tech. Like obviously disappointing season,
but same reason why I'm fading Notre Dame and you
gotta fade Cal. Just simply off the travel spot with
the four OT. To me, that's enough to not want
to take them, you know, obviously not technically a road favorite,
but essentially a road favor because you're traveling and you're
laying points. I don't like that for kal So I'm
(30:02):
on Virginia Tech there.
Speaker 3 (30:04):
I'll throw a weird one here from the Southland conference
McNeese and Northwestern couple of states here and McNee state
is the numbers just starting to come out. We're seeing
twelve and a half at open not available on every
book just yet. You know, there are barely any write
ups for this game yet, other than you know, various
models just projecting McNee State to absolutely roll and maybe
(30:27):
win this game by twenty points. Is twelve and a
half too big a number though, once you get to
this time of year? Or is there just that big
a difference, big a disparity in talent between these two programs.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
You know, I was talking to my buddy and he
was I do a show with him. Doug is the
area and probably know him. Sure, he was onto an
angle that I like is these teams that are coming
off a game taking them in the first half. Obviously,
you know, Northwestern State just beat Texas A and m
(31:02):
Corpus Christy, so maybe take them in the first half,
little rest versus rusting. That being said, I do think
twelve and a half is a hair too high, but
maybe just identify the first half. I like that angle
of the team that's coming off the game, feeling a
little loose there and getting off to a good start back.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
To the ACC Syracuse. Adams alma mater takes on Florida
State tomorrow night, seven o'clock.
Speaker 2 (31:25):
Tip.
Speaker 4 (31:26):
Florida State just snapped their big losing streak where they
beat SMU at home. Syracuse, you don't really know what
team's gonna show up on a given night here. This
number is at two and a half in favor of
the Seminoles. Which way you're going here?
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Yeah, give me Syracuse No, And I'm saying I'm fando
I think is a three and a half.
Speaker 4 (31:46):
I do FanDuel has a three and a half.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
Yeah, if you can get that over a full three there,
I definitely like that. Again, this just goes back to
like the idea that I don't know in Florida State.
What have they done this season to be favored by
three and a half on a neutral here? And you
know you can you can certainly make a case here
for Syracuse. Also, if you, uh, you want to become
(32:08):
a real d J. I think some of these long
shot teams, especially if you're talking about two fifty to one,
three hundred to one to win the ACC. I mean,
if you remember NC State last year went on a
crazy run to win the tournament. Like I obviously it's
very top heavy, but you don't know if those teams
aren't necessarily trying to win the entire thing. I wouldn't
(32:29):
be surprised if one of these teams gets on a
little bit of a run. Certainly not a full unit play,
but if you're if you want to live dangerously, uh,
you know, maybe put like five ten bucks on each
of these uh to win it all, I think is
a fun angle there. Again, two fifty to one, three
hundred to one, but I will take Syracuse in the
point there three and a half is too high for
(32:50):
Florida State.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
By the skin of our teeth. UNC Wilmington gets home
with a sixty eight sixty seven winning against the Cause Charleston,
which big for our money line parlay that we had
them on, uh and we're alive. It's all up to
Gonzaga now, which shouldn't in theory be as sweaty as
that one. We'll come on back with more with Sean
(33:12):
Green looking at tomorrow's slate in the college hardwood and
a people's parlay for you as well. Sewn Green's here
with us from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. We will
get into a people's parlay coming up in just a
little bit as we sweat obviously tonight's people's parlay. Still
(33:35):
that'll be we'll be sweating that till, you know, after
the show ends. Hopefully. Anyway, good start. These first couple
eggs cooperate, but yeah, good start. At the moment. Utah
is not going away quite yet. I saw that happen
two game but Toronto to you know, footback on the gas.
We're talking to college joops looking at tuesday slate with
(33:58):
Sean here and Kansas State against Arizona State. Kansas State
money line is just something that Dan has as part
of his builder for tomorrow a show play. But in
terms of the spread universally five and a half right now,
sean interesting spot. Arizona State's kind of you know, limped
into the conference attorney, and Kansas State has been playing
(34:19):
some pretty good basketball right now. Couple that with the
fact that the attorney is happening in definitely a less
hostile environment than it could be because the attorney is
in Kansas City. Should we expect KSU to cover the six.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
Yeah? No, I mean I had this projected. I'm surprised
that the spread has gotten this high. I get why
you would the appeal the money line there, you know,
case State with the essentially they home court crowd there,
But five and a half I think is high. So
I actually would take Arizona State in the points here.
(34:55):
You know, obviously they've struggled this season, but there was
since February on the one win once against Kansas State,
so you know, and that was a Kansas State, So
I think they'll be up for this game. I think
five and a half is just way too high. I
think they're factoring in. I think you should factor in
(35:15):
some home court advantage, but five and a half is
way too high. I have this, you know, on a
true neutral maybe one and a half even with the
home court. I don't think you should make it more
than three and a half. So I'll think Arizona State
in the five.
Speaker 5 (35:29):
And a half.
Speaker 4 (35:30):
All right, let's finish up the big twelve slate for
tomorrow with this UCF Utah game tomorrow night, Sean look
at anytime Utah is away from home. I love to
just fade them, but UCF isn't exactly the most consistent
team either. My instinct is to go with the Knights
here on the money line at a nice little plus
one zero five number, But I don't know. Utah is
(35:51):
so volatile. They could show up tonight and shoot the
lights out. I have no idea what to make of
this one.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
No, that's fair, I'm going to fade Utah. I think
after that that BYU game, I think was tough for them.
They were hanging around. They were hanging around, and.
Speaker 6 (36:06):
Then they did back door and if you depending on when.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
You, yeah, I look, that was awful. The way I
fell asleep woke up the next morning expecting to see
that it cashed and it did not. It was it
was awful.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
Yeah, I even I got the eleven and it was
just the ugliest, worst push of all time. But I mean, yeah,
it was as high as like twelve and a half whatever.
I think that was kind of a It sounds weird,
but I think it was kind of a little letdown
opportunity for them. You go to the Holy War, you
kind of hang around against Yu and you just can't
(36:39):
get it done. And obviously they back door it or
they push it, depending But I think I think this
is a good spot for UCF. I think in a
close game, if you're given if I would much rather
take the team that's thirteen percentage points better at the line.
So I'm with you. I'm taking UCF here.
Speaker 3 (36:58):
Guys are going to bring this to New Wing England
for giggles here, let's talk about Vermont and Maine America
East Conference attorney tomorrow night. Yet I know Vermont three
and a half to four and a half point favor
depending on where you look around here. And look, there's
there's a recent history between these teams. Obviously they matched
up twice last month. Vermont won both, but they were
(37:21):
nail biters, you know, one by six and then one
by four. And so what should the expectations be when again,
we're seeing a four or a five effectively here in
this one.
Speaker 2 (37:33):
Yeah, I'm seeing as low as three and a half.
I'll take the lays of three and a half with Vermont.
I get again, it's kind of like it's almost a
Gonzaga ask it where, it's like, yeah, it's kind of
a down year compared to what they've normally dominated. Like
usually when you look at see American East Conference tournament odds,
it's like Vermont by a landslide. Not the case this year.
(37:54):
You're getting plus money on Vermont for the tournament. I
got a little sprinkle there, I think around plus two thirty,
And yeah, I think they're gonna get it done against Maine.
I get why, you know, you could be intrigued by
taking me in the points, but I think that there's
just an institutional knowledge of how to get it done
here in these conference tournaments. So I will I'll take
Vermont in the history of how well they've done in
(38:16):
this tournament. And obviously they're red hot, they're Vermont, but yeah,
I'll lay the number with Vermont.
Speaker 4 (38:23):
So the line just came out, guys. For the CAAA
Final tomorrow night, Delaware plays UNC Wilmington. Wilmington's favored by
seven and a half here in this one look at
these could be famous last words, but there is no
way Delaware is going dancing. They have played this will
be their fifth game in five days. Wilmington beat them
by thirty. The last time they've played. They beat them
(38:45):
by ten the time before. Do you just lay the
seven and a half here? What's your strategy going into
this one?
Speaker 2 (38:53):
I know it's I'm with you in wanting to fade Delaware,
but it's such a fun story. That being said, UNC Wilmington,
you know they got it done, but that was a
bit of a sweat. They didn't cover the number. I'll go,
I'll go you and you know what, no, give me
Delaware in the points. This is I don't want to
be on the opposite. I don't want to. I don't
(39:14):
well because if it comes down to I get the
case for Wilmington, but I don't want to root against
this Delaware story. Delaware somehow making in the tournament would
be too funny. So I'll take Delaware at the points.
Speaker 3 (39:28):
There are a lot of games tomorrow, as mentioned, We've
thrown a lot at you, obviously, but I'm sure you
have some favorite plays outside of whatever you give us
for the People's parlay here in a little bit that
you've already got in pocket for tomorrow. What what jumps
out at you as far as games that we haven't covered.
Speaker 2 (39:46):
Yeah, that's a good question. Well, you know, one we
didn't really discuss is the whack here Utah Tech versus
the Southern Utah. I think that's kind of intriguing. This
one's interesting because I don't think they're really factoring in
as much as they should Utah or sorry, Southern Utah's
(40:06):
home court advantage here. So I do like Southern Utah here.
The numbers pretty shory short three and a half. I
like them there as a home dog. I don't think
they're really factoring in the home court advantage here against
Utah Tech. So I'll go a little off the board
here and take Southern Utah in the point plus three
(40:27):
and a half.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
All right, why don't we get to the people's parlay, fellas,
And as we always do, we like to recite the
statistics for better or worse. That is no judgment on Sean,
because I don't know what the numbers are until I
look them up two and three on your official show plays.
The parlays, however, are one and four, which means collectively,
we need to get ourselves together here in this wonderful
(40:52):
month of March. So let's see if Sean can even
things up on his end and we can bring this
parlay to a profitable situation as well. Let's get into it, John,
your favorite play for tomorrow?
Speaker 2 (41:05):
Go ahead, give me the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers lay in
four and a half against Florida International as Kobe likes
to call them, aka the Airport like the Hilltoppers a
ton in this spot and FIU, you know, bottom of
the conference when it comes to turnovers is something that
(41:26):
I always like to fade here. Their offense is just
super inefficient. I don't think they're gonna be able to
keep up with Western Kentucky here, So yeah, give me
give me Western Kentucky laying the number.
Speaker 3 (41:37):
Dan.
Speaker 4 (41:38):
All right, guys, I'm gonna take us out to the
Big Sky and let's lay the points with Northern Colorado
tomorrow night. Who's gonna take on Montana State? Who advanced today?
The Northern Colorado has won both matchups this season. This
is also a best bet from my model, saying that
this number should actually be a little over five between
these two teams, and also Montana State this year when
(41:59):
they are priced as an underdog two and nine against
the spread. So let's go Northern Colorado minus three and
a half.
Speaker 3 (42:06):
Okay, listen, I could stay in the world of college
basketball and give us a nice clean college hoops people's parlay.
I'm not gonna do it. Not gonna do it. There'll
be plenty of those coming up. I'm taking us to
the NBA, where we've got just this light, little four
game slate tomorrow. I'm investing in the road Bucks to
(42:27):
cover three points, two and a half points actually at
DraftKings at Indiana tomorrow night. You know there, Look, there
are some bad numbers and I'll share them with you
just so you can be aware, full transparency. The Bucks
are seventeen or twelve, seventeen and one on the road
against the spread, whereas the Pacers fifteen twelve and one
(42:48):
at home ats. Neither of these teams is, you know,
riding a particularly interesting trend in either direction. That being said,
I'm just looking at talent on Talent is probable to
play in this one. I would expect to see him
out there. Obviously. If you know, something were to happen
that changes that, well, that's you know, bad on me.
(43:09):
But Indy played tonight. It's a back to back. I
realized there's no travel. I'm back in the rested Bucks,
who have just been sitting there and waiting their turn
to take care of business tomorrow night, and Brian here
has shopped it around. Looks like DraftKings, probably in part
because of the bucks line. Is the best place for
this number or for this parlay? Plus six five? This
(43:33):
people's parlay fellas to mety one. Let's bring this one home.
Speaker 2 (43:38):
Adam, real quick. I like that play. Indiana is very
bad on back to backs two and seven ahs, So
just throwing that nugget out there.
Speaker 3 (43:47):
See that I give you a bad number, he gives
you a good one. This is right here. I love it. Yeah,
So well back the bucks Western Kentucky and Dan gave
a what'd you give us again?
Speaker 2 (43:58):
Dan?
Speaker 4 (43:59):
Northern Colorado?
Speaker 3 (44:00):
Northern Colorado? That's right, minus three and a half. So
we'll load that into the action app. Everything will be
available to you their as we track tonight's People's parlay
as well. But awesome stuff, awesome time of the year,
and Sean always awesome for joining us. We will definitely
be bothering him throughout the next few weeks. Here plenty
of college basketball on the way here and soon enough
(44:21):
brackets for us to fill out too. Sewan, thanks so.
Speaker 2 (44:24):
Much, man, appreciate it. Thanks for having me guys.
Speaker 3 (44:28):
Absolutely. Sean is again from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network
on Twitter at Sean that is Sea n T. Green.
We'll come on back mix in a little bit more football.
Some big baseball news concerning your Boston Red Sox that
we should discuss as well. So we need one more
(44:51):
assist out of Draymond Green in the final nine minutes
of a game Golden State leads by fifteen points against
the Trailblazers. Hopefully he can get that done for us,
obviously and keep things alive with this people's parlay. But
what I wanted to bring up related to this game
and my fault, I take ownership of this. You know,
Brian brought up Steph Curry or both of you brought
(45:16):
up I don't remember who brought up seven threes away
from from hitting this big benchmark. You know, could could
we consider laddering them up? Is it worth investing? And
what I was going to suggest as a narrative play
was just going over his base number of threes over
(45:36):
four and a half, just to you know, I mean,
it fits the description perfectly obviously. And you know, we
went to break, we came back the game was basically
tipping off. We gave out the details for the parlay
game got underway, sort of slipped my mind as we
went into our guest with Joe pisa Pa at the time,
I didn't do it. And wouldn't you know, Steph Curry
is five for seven from three, So not only has
(46:00):
he hit that over four and a half guys, two
more threes tonight. It's pretty realistic.
Speaker 4 (46:05):
Yeah, I would say so. I mean, up fifteen here,
if Portland can hang around for the next couple of minutes, yep,
hopefully Draymond assists on one of them.
Speaker 3 (46:16):
So we should have had that.
Speaker 2 (46:17):
I am.
Speaker 3 (46:19):
I'm saddened by the fact that we did not tack
on that unit. Felt like a freebie and uh oh, well,
these things happen. Do you think that you will be
you know, like we this year we've added more volume
obviously than we were certainly doing it this time last year.
Do you think that you will add more show plays
(46:40):
in the world of college basketball, be it builders or
just straight plays here during maybe even this week in
conference turney action and then obviously once we get to
the real craziness.
Speaker 4 (46:50):
Yeah, I would say so. I mean, I'm hoping that
we're gonna do the same thing that we did. I'm
really looking forward to next Monday night when we all
unveil our our final fours and all that kind of
stuff that was a lot of fun last year and
just seeing it we're all in unison again, I don't
think I don't think we will be this year.
Speaker 3 (47:06):
I don't think we will be either. There isn't that
Yukon felt like this just ourhouse over.
Speaker 4 (47:11):
Auburn's kind of falling off. I mean, Duke, if they
roll through the ACC is going to get a lot
of love, I feel like going into next week, but
those are really the only two at the moment right now.
But I'm really looking forward that forward to that next
week and all those different futures that we're gonna put
out and that kind of stuff. But yeah, I could definitely.
I mean I had some really good, nice success over
(47:32):
the weekend with just little builders. I mean, there's so
many lines here that are right around, like you know,
three and a half, four, four and a half. You
just pair up a couple of money lines and you
can get yourself some nice little payouts there. And I
did one tonight with Nichols and unc Wilmington paid out
at plus one fifty could.
Speaker 3 (47:47):
Have made that show official.
Speaker 4 (47:48):
Dan, I debated, but I thought that was a little
aggressive for a br But you know I stand corrected
with my actual br. Miss.
Speaker 3 (47:55):
Yes, Sometimes sometimes we just got to go, you know,
go for it. Thanks again to again both Shawn Green,
Colin Wilson, Joe Pisapia, Aton Shander. So much college hoop
this week. It's going to be a blast for Dan
and Bryan and Madam. See you.
Speaker 1 (48:13):
You've been listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six point eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 3 (48:28):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (48:29):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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