Extensive NBA Finals Series and Game 1 Preview, Insider Look at the DraftKings Sportsbook

Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Now wr KO presents Boston's only nightlysports betting show, The Gambler, with
Adam Kaufman covering spreads, props,parlays and more. The Gambler starts now
here's Adam Kaufman. Today sucks.Today absolutely sucks. Maybe it will finish

(00:26):
better. Night's not over. Somebaseball's just underway on the West Coast.
But right now, oh, todayis bad. Today. I broke some
cardinal rules and I knew it whileI was doing it. There are there
are basic premises in gambling, insports betting that you just have to follow,

(00:48):
and we each kind of have ourown set of rules that you have
to stay loyal to, and whenyou don't, maybe you'll luck out,
but more often than not, it'sgonna burn you. I mean. The
reason that the saying throwing good moneyafter bad exists is because it's a concept
that we are all too familiar with. Let me tell you about my day

(01:08):
just a little bit. I won'tgo specific into the bed by bed or
anything like that, but my goodness, the Rangers started off by just messing
everything up, whether it was themoney line, the run line, you
name it. Texas absolutely set thetone for what was going to be a

(01:33):
miserable day. Didn't do a verygood job of reading overs across baseball.
Dodgers blew a three run lead thatwas brutal. Raise one. Didn't get
it done on the money line oron the run line. Rather, that
wasn't the biggest deal in the world, but it was something. Of course,
the people's parlay. The first twolegs hit looked like we were positioned

(01:55):
well to get off the schneide getit done, and Blake Snell went and
messed it up. Two out ofthree legs hit there, so official show
picks still trending well with the parlay. H Yeah, and right now I
mentioned throwing good money after bad.I decided, all right, I'm gonna

(02:20):
I'm gonna correct some of my mistakestoday. I like Houston tonight. I
like Houston on the run line tonight. I really like Houston tonight. I'm
gonna put more money on the Astros. Oh what a sucker down seven nothing
right now? And of course,wouldn't you know this was me like correcting

(02:43):
a correction. I thought, allright, well, I really like the
Diamondbacks tonight too. I'm gonna I'mgonna put more money on them to try
and fix the Texas thing and theHouston thing. No, No, that
would be dumb, that would beirresponsible. I'm not gonna do that.
I won't do that. So Idon't Three runs in the first inning,

(03:05):
no one who knows. Maybe theDiamondbacks will lose, But that's just how
today is going. Welcome in.This is the Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
I am Adam Kaufman, the manyou just heard a moment ago. Ever,
so briefly, Dan Watkins, EJ. Pacheco, our producer, we
do have a big show plan foryou, very excited about it coming up
in about ten twelve minutes, andfor much of this hour, he'll join
us for a couple of segments.Anyway, DraftKings director of Race and Sports

(03:29):
Operations, Johnny Availa will join us, and then the next hour we will
get into much more concerning the NBAFinals as we sit here on the eve
of Game one in Denver between theNuggets and not the Celtics. Visas Jonathan
von Tolble will help us preview theNugs and heat worry more about the Stanley

(03:52):
Cup Final and previewing that which beginson Saturday, tomorrow, that'll be if
you're a hockey person, more ofthat will be tomorrow. Dana, hope
you're having a better day than Iam. Pal uh, well, better
than you, sure, but likea good day. I wouldn't call it
a good day. This has justbeen like the week of the Chase,
like it has just been chasing,trying to get back to even It's just

(04:12):
been from Monday on it's just beenrough. Today has been a little better.
Maybe if we can get some lifeout of the Astros, it can
turn into a, you know,a good day. But this whole week,
man has just been it's been insane. It's almost it's it's it's just
I mean, you got the OaklandAthletics, who now have twelve wins this
season, two of them or againstthe Atlanta Braves. One of the best
teams in baseball, Oakland is onpace to be one of the one of,

(04:35):
if not the worst team in theentire history of Major League Baseball,
the entire one hundred and thirty yearhistory. However long it's been, this
Oakland team could be the worst toever step on a Major League diamond.
And they've beaten the Atlanta Braves twicethis week, and they hung in there
again today and almost screwed up thePeople's parlay before it eventually got screwed up,

(04:57):
but Atlanta did get a win theretoday. It's just been insane and
like, and I know we're notthe only ones. I think a lot
of people are feeling this this weekbecause I post some picks Misery Loves Company.
Oh yeah, so you know,I post a couple picks every night
before the show on social media.And normally when I post, you know,
and I have three or four badpicks, I get chirped. It's
just NonStop, yeah, non stopchirping. But like last night in that

(05:23):
Braves game, Like, I didn'teven get chirped this morning. I went
over for five. By the way, I didn't even get chirped about the
Braves last night or Tampa because peoplewere just like, yeah, man,
they got me too. Yeah,everybody was on it, Yeah everybody.
And I guess that's the whole thing. Like, you know, when you
hear like the public is ninety fiveon something, maybe you stay away because
something could happen. Even the RedSox not helping out tonight, they're and

(05:45):
out away from losing five four afteranother late rally and this is again whatever,
like so they're gonna lose. I'mnot gonna lose sleep about a regular
season loss to close out May.But again it's just like patterns not coming
through. You know, we talkedso much about the over in Red Sox
games hitting far more often than not, and it does not today. We

(06:06):
had Ariel Epstein, the prop queen, on with us last night from MLB
networking Points Bet, talking about howone of the most profitable bets in all
of baseball this season has been playingthe Red Sox team total over at Fenway.
Right, does it hit today?Nope? Not as a now.
No, I mean if they ifthey quick score two runs with run,

(06:28):
you know, two down in theninth and two strikes on whoever's upright now,
than sure still got a chance.Yeah, still got a chance.
Yeah. But no, No,it's just it is astounding. I mean,
this is look I don't want tosay obviously, like, yeah,
I understand what you just said abouthow you know, if a lot of

(06:50):
the public is on something, maybethere's there's a reason to stay away.
But I don't know, I don'thave the math. I would like to
believe that generally if most of thepublic and the sharps are on something,
then more often than not, likesomewhere above fifty percent of the time,
it does hit. But it justthis week, like you said, I
mean, this has been a weekfrom hell in terms of that money,

(07:15):
like the public money or the majorityof handling bets actually leading us in a
profitable direction even you know, it'sjust and on the heels of what the
Celtics did to me and did doprobably a lot of people around Boston after
what the Bruins did to meet youknow, at this point in time nine
months ago, it feels like,yeah, game game over, lose Red

(07:42):
Sox, lose the red Yeah it'sagain. By the way, that's back
to back one run losses. Yesterdaymuch higher scoring after a late rally,
but back to back one run lossesto the Reds. Twins have gone ahead
ate nothing with still runners on thetop of the Evans in Houston. Hopefully
the Diamondbacks can at least get theirbusiness done. The Yankees and Mariners are

(08:03):
scoreless. Maybe maybe we should figureout how to bet that one we can
make some money back tonight. Idon't know, I actually, other than
playing the over in that game,which, of course there are no runs
that'll probably play out. I don'tknow which way to go with that one.
So it's going back to your goingback to your Celtics thought there,

(08:26):
you know how they've costed a lotof people, probably a lot of money.
That kind of brings me to likealmost like an opening thought here for
the show tonight, And I'm wondering, like, are we sleeping on the
Heat again? Like as it likeas a betting community, are we sleeping
on the Miami Heat again? LikeI don't know. I'm looking at that
spread and I'm just thinking, Oh, this Heat team, they just they
don't quit, man, Jimmy Butlerdoes not quit. And specifically for tomorrow

(08:48):
night in game one, I'm wondering, like, especially and then you got
this rest Verse Russ thing, canMiami catch Denver off guard tomorrow night and
at least, you know, coverin this game like the Lake Remember the
Lakers in Game one of the WesternConference Finals. Sure, they were getting
blown out in the first half,then all of a sudden, Denver takes
their foot off the gas. Isthat something we might be looking at tomorrow
night? How about Miami in Bostonin Game one after the dramatic comeback against

(09:11):
Philadelphia. Yeah, now, Iguess what I would wonder, And I
don't know the answer to this,And I'm certainly no one's ever going to
confuse me for a professional athlete,So I don't know the effect. It's
just something people talk about all thetime. I don't know if the altitude
and I know Denver, you knowhas like Miami has been there. Miami
went out right after beating Boston,so they've been there for a couple of

(09:33):
days. But I don't know howdramatic that impact is on the Heat in
game one versus sort of settling inand getting adjusted for Game two. I
don't know how much that matters.But to your main point of would would
be at all surprised if Miami coveredthe nine points? Not in the least,
Not in the least. In fact, I mean you almost I'm not

(09:54):
going to do it because I don'tbelieve in it and I feel like I
would just be throwing money away.But after what the Heat did to the
Bucks as underdogs to the Knicks andobviously ultimately in seven games to the Celtics,
how do you not at least considerthe idea of putting a some sort

(10:16):
of series bet or just money linebet, because you're still getting a good
number right on the heat to winthat series. So I'm looking at best
and splits right now, and alot of people are it's fifty fifty to
handle on the spread tomorrow night infifty just fifty. I'm talking about for
the whole series, sure, notnot just game one. Yeah, I
mean, and that's something I wantto look at and I want to talk

(10:37):
to our guest about in the nextsegment. Is you know, are they
do they just take this, youknow, on a series by series basis
when setting these lines, or arethey worried at all about getting snake bitten
again by the heat? It's agood question, obviously. Yeah, well,
we'll get Johnny Evello's thoughts on it. It's it's interest. I feel

(10:58):
like I have a good read onthis series. But I would have told
you that about any Celtics series thatwe had through the first three rounds,
and my read was ever so slightlyto dramatically off in all of those series.
So I don't know, Maybe we'llfare better when when there's there's no

(11:20):
local even subtle bias or emotion playingin It's unless unless there's angst and hatred
toward Miami that bleeds over that thatyou could call that emotion. I mean,
I don't, I don't feel thatway. No, I'm not rooting
for them, but I'm not goingto bet with bias. Yeah, I'm
you know, my money will beon the Nuggets and in a relatively quick

(11:41):
series because as we, you know, talked about last night when we had
Brandon Anderson on, that's just whatI believe is going to happen. Yeah,
and maybe Denver really is the legitjuggernaut unlike the Celtics. That could
very well be the case. Iwant to mention as well that if anyone
didn't see it, we have acoaching opening that has been filled with what

(12:05):
a deal. Yeah, so MonnieWilliams School, of course parted ways or
lost his job or however it wasofficially labeled with the Suns six years seventy
two million dollars to become the newDetroit Pistons head coach, seventy two million
dollars. For all of you andapples to oranges, I understand it is

(12:28):
not the same thing, but forall of you out there that have been
griping about the Celtics having to payJoe Missoula three years and a total of
fourteen million dollars over the next fewyears of that contract. I know Monty
Williams is much more established, he'sa better head coach, but six verse
seventy two and it could reach moreod and it could go higher with options.

(12:52):
So Sham's just tweeted out that itcould reach eight years and one hundred
million based on team options and incentives. Well, you can be the championships
are involved in that. All right, we are going to break when we
come back. Johnny Avello from DraftKingswill join us. You want to talk
to an oddsmaker, find out howall this works. That's exactly what we're
going to do. Join in sixone seven two six six six eight six

(13:13):
eight. It's The Gambler with AdamKaufman. W RKO sick and tired of
old sports talk and want to getright into the action. The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman. As you covered,call us now with six one seven two
six six six eight six eight.That's six one seven two six six six
eight six eight The Gambler with AdamKaufman. We'll be right back after this

(13:37):
on WRKO, we're back on theGambler with Adam Kaufman and very excited for
our next guests. Let's welcome himin without further ado. My friend from
DraftKings, director of Race and SportsOperations, Johnny Avello, he joins us
from Las Vegas for the next coupleof segments. Johnny, how are you

(13:58):
man, Hey Adam, I'm doingvery well. Thank you much, so
well. There are so many thingsthat I want to get into with you.
But since we started doing this showa little over a month ago,
one of the number one things thatpeople ask me about, or that friends
will bring up is, you know, we'll make our bets, whether it's

(14:20):
a prop, whether it's a line, a spread, whatever it may be.
And it's you know, man,like these odds makers, how how
are they so good? How arethey so accurate? How is everything just
so dead on? And I said, well, let's ask someone who does
it. Let's find out how areyou so good at what you do?
Well? I think, but dopeople see the games that we are close

(14:43):
on, but they don't look atthe games that were off by twenty points.
So let's take the Celtics game againstthe Heat. The other night we
had the Celtics and the half pointfavorite. They lose the game by twenty.
So we're not always there, andyou know what, we're trying to
do. The reason we are close, I should first of all, is

(15:05):
that we use a power rating,and the power rating takes in a consideration
a team's offensive production, defensive production, and tangibles coaching, and so that's
how we come up with a line. So it's understandable that they're going to
play to you know what, wethink they're going to play too, especially

(15:26):
towards the end of the year.The beginning of the year, sometimes they
aren't so close. We're still tryingto get the data that works. But
towards the end of the year,these are pretty much locked in. But
we're as oddsmakers, we're not tryingto get the game close. A matter
of fact, we would rather thannot be close as the number because that's
when we get into trouble because onus, if you get sided where you

(15:50):
get middled on a game of middles, when you open seven and a half
to go to eight and a half, so they lay seven and a half,
they take back eight and a half, the game falls eight, we
lose all the bets sides. Whenyou open a game, same scenario seven
and a half, go to eight, eight and a half, the game
falls, you know, like sevenor so, and then we have to

(16:11):
pay one side and we have torefund the money on the other. That
happens too, So that's called getinsided. And we don't want the games
to fall close. We want thegames to you know, just balance out
best we can and whatever the scorehappens, happens. We don't play results

(16:32):
every single night of a week overthe course of time. The juice that
we take in, that's how wemake our money. So it's four and
a half percent their radical hold,and that's how we make our money.
Hopefully winning more than we're losing.That's all it comes down to. As
much as it was out obviously terriblefor Boston fans to see, you know,
the historic Bruins team go down anda heavy favorite Celtics team go down

(16:56):
to the conference finals, I haveto imagine that you know, for that
that was probably pretty good. Um. Yes, it was, especially the
Bruins going down, because the Bruinswere a big hazard for us in the
future book. Um Boston, It'sunderstandable that they went down once, they

(17:18):
got down three games to zero,it's really hard to come back from.
That's why no one's ever done it. Right. You can, you can
win three, but the fourth one'sdifficult because you have to be the team
four times and you can't have anoff night, and they had an off
night the other night. So,um, was that good for us?
Really? I think we would haverather had had had the Celtics stay in

(17:41):
it as it stands. Right now, We've got some pretty good money on
the Nuggets in the Future book.Uh, and they bet to heat.
The Future book had some pretty lucrativeodds, you know, in the triple
digits, one hundred, two hundredto one. So we would have rather
had the Celtics thick around a littlewhile longer. Yeah, that's what I
was going to ask you. Imean, what would the preference, just

(18:03):
from a betting perspective and obviously asa sports book, would the preference had
been Boston simply because you know,we don't know the realities, we don't
know how it's all going to playout, but you know, on paper,
you got a one seed versus aneight seed, the Nuggets are heavy,
heavy favorites. Whether it's bet inthe series, or you know,
just game one again like you hadwith the Celtics and Heat. So often
you see these minus three hundred whatevermoney line single game bets a Celtics Nuggets

(18:30):
series, I mean, Boston,it was even positioned at going into Game
seven, was positioned to be thetitle favorite once again, even over Denver
that had already advanced. So itwas it. You know, we would
have, seemingly anyway, had muchcloser numbers and much much more competitive betting
numbers on a game by game basis. Whereas you know, now, unless
you're just sort of looking for valueyou or feel like Miami's being disrespected,

(18:56):
maybe you're throwing some money that way. But the vast majority of people you
talk to expect not only the Nuggetsto win, but relatively quickly. I
was asked that same question this morningon a Denver radio show. You know,
will Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat takea little steam out of the betting
And the answer to that is no, No, two teams are bigger than

(19:21):
the finals themselves, So we're gonnaget good betting action. I think we're
gonna have record numbers again, recordnumbers because we are in more states record
numbers because it is the finals.There are two good teams playing a lot
of storylines around both teams. Wouldthe Lakers Celtics have been a more appealing
service series East Coast West Coast?Yeah, maybe, But we got two

(19:48):
teams here. You know. Oneteam has been probably top close to the
top, cream of the crop allyear. The other has just battled from
an eighth seed play and play into make it this far and has some
players that are really shining here,uh, you know, late in the
season. So you know, Ithink I think the series are both going

(20:11):
to be good, right, aslong as the games aren't you know,
totally blowouts. You don't want tosee that because that kills the end game
wager. That kills a lot ofother proposition bets that we have up there
in the game. Hey, Johnny, when it comes to handicapping the heat
or any you know, long shotin a series like this, as they
continue their wild run here in theseplayoffs, is they're concerned about making them

(20:33):
big dogs again in the series oris the line here just completely based on
this matchup and doesn't really take intoeffect you know, how the team's got
here. Well, the heat hasbeen a dog in every series so far.
Pretty significant dog. You know,when you look at them all year
long, they you know, theyplayed pretty well at home. They were

(20:57):
in the road they were kind ofterrible. Now they seem to be good
on the road and average at home. You know, it's it's a hard
team to compare now to where theywere, you know, a month,
six weeks ago. They're just playingdifferently. And this is all without you
know, the hero who's supposed tomake a comeback, maybe it over here

(21:21):
and possibly in game three. Soum, yeah, there's still a dog
because the team that was projected toget there is here Denver Nuggets. So
us their significant dog doesn't mean theycan't win the whole thing. It's a
big uphill to climb, that's forsure. But the way they're playing and
at the confidence level they have,you know, you never can count them

(21:45):
out. You mentioned the in gamebetting, Johnny, How I mean,
I love to do it. Howsignificant in terms of like the business?
How significant for the business is ingame betting regardless of the sport. I
know we're talking NBA right now,but but just in general, is is
it as big as everyone would liketo think? It is or are most
people kind of the you know,set it and forget it, so to

(22:07):
speak, like we say in DFS, you know, make make your bets
and then just however it plays out, it plays out. No, it's
pretty big, you know. It'sapproaching twenty twenty five percent now of the
handle an NBA. So it continuesto grow each and every year. We
make it grow because we put updifferent options for you to bet. Now

(22:29):
you've got parlays that you can betin game wagering. Uh, you know,
a new set of props are upto bet in game wagering. And
I've always found it intriguing. Imean, I like to play it from
time to time. Of course Ican't play with our company, but being
in Vegas, I have some otheroptions. Uh. And I do like
to play it from time to time, just trying to find something. You
don't find it, you pass,that's all. You don't force your hand.

(22:53):
But sometimes you don't like the numberto begin of the beginning of the
game, and during the game you'llyou'll find something that's just more attractive.
So I think that's the way alot of betters are approaching it now.
Johnny hang with us we're gonna takea quick break, but plenty more questions
for you. We'll break away fromNBA a little bit, getting to some
other stuff here with Johnny Evello,director of Race and Sports Operations over at

(23:15):
DraftKings. This is The Gambler withAdam Kaufman on w RKO. You need
a vent about bad bets, You'vecome to the right place. Tell us
about it. Call six one seventwo six six six eight six six one
seven two six six six eight sixeight, Or if you're listening on the
iHeartRadio app, use the talkback button. The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. We'll

(23:40):
be right back after this. OnWRKO, we're chatting with DraftKings director of
Race in Sports Operations, Johnny Avello, about making odds out there in Vegas
and the Draft Kings sports book.Hey, Johnny, is everybody race in
the place? Pistons futures after thisgiant Monnie Williams contract. I haven't seen

(24:02):
that, you know, Yeah,I wouldn't think so. There's We've got
you for about ten minutes or somore and there's a lot I want to
get to. Obviously, we've beenpretty fixated on the NBA with the Finals
starting tomorrow, understandably so. ButI'm wondering with the NFL releasing its regular
season schedule recently, and something thatthe Drafting Sports Book did that I was

(24:25):
obsessed with on that very first daywas you guys putting out the entire schedule
for it, like you know,you could pick a random game in mid
December and already have a line forit. That was just so much fun
to look at, to go throughthe Patriot schedule and all, right,
where are they favored? Where arethey not? Knowing? Obviously over the
course of the year that changes,but even just to get a glimpse into
what it looks like right now wasa lot of fun. Is any when

(24:49):
it comes to, like, Iknow, football is king, Does anything
from a betting perspective come close tothe way and the volume with which people
bet NFL? It doesn't. Andthe proof was that when we put up
all of those games, I don'tforgot him any games. It was three

(25:11):
hundred or you know, some threehundred and twenty year, whatever that number
was. And when we put upthe regular season wins, and when we
put up all the props with theNFL, they get bet immediately that day
the next day and every day upuntil the season starts, whereas all the
other sports, you know, we'llput up NBA regular season wins, we'll

(25:36):
take a few pops and that'll beit and kind of just sit there for
a bit and there'll be some hitson it now and then. But football
just seems to be so popular thatevery single day there's going to be action
on things that we have up monthsbefore we ever hike the football. I'm
just kind of maybe I'm wrong aboutthis, and that's why I asked the

(25:56):
question. I mean, line tothink that maybe NBA is second, but
maybe I'm I'm overlooking, like internationalsoccer, I mean, what what what
comes after NFL? NBA is prettybig. There's a lot of games.
There's a lot of games that weeklyfor months and months, so and then

(26:18):
we get in and then look,we're still playing. We started back in
October and here we are. We'rewe're still playing NBA. So there's just
a lot of games. And italways has been, you know, in
a popular proposition to bet on ourmenu for DraftKings. So NBA is right
there. College basketball, you takethe two basketballs together, NBA college at

(26:42):
dwarfs, anything else, and thenwhen this is all over, you know
what are we're gonna have left.We're gonna have left. You know what
Henry Ford said once is that youcould buy the Model T in any color
you want it as long as itwas black. And that's kind of the
way it is. In summer.You can bet any sport you want as
long as it's MLB. Yeah,that and I guess the occasional golf.

(27:04):
But to that end, I mean, what what would surprise people, you
know, to for people to learnand when it comes to betting popularity,
like, you know, for foryou to say to me something like you
wouldn't believe how much people bet tennis? You know, like, is there
something that people you know wouldn't eventhink about that actually is more Even you
in your position, is a morepopular bet than than I think you know,

(27:30):
Joe public would assume, well,they're in a pandemic. You know,
we didn't have a lot to offer, so we were really grasping for,
you know, events to put upthat people could wager on, and
so we were doing simulated Nascar UH, and then we were doing table tennis
UH, and table tennis kind oftook off and it's still around. It's

(27:53):
still writing a fair amount of business. People like to bet point for point,
you know, so they like tobet who's serving and will they get
that point? They bet tennis verysimilar, uh, you know, in
a similar way. UM. Acouple of sports that we that are new
with DraftKings, uh that that arepicking up a little bit of steam.

(28:15):
Cornhole, Um, that's something we'veoffer. I think we're in our second
year of cornhole. Pickle ball,that's the game that we just started booking
recently. Um, you know,and so we do a lot of these,
you know, uh, off thecuff type of sports, but we

(28:36):
think that if it's popular, peopleare gonna wager on it. The NCAA
Lacrosse Games championship game this past Monday, and you know, the seat during
the season games, the playoffs,they all wrote good business. Uh.
So you know, people may notbe aware, but these sports are popular,
uh in a lot of people's household. They really they like the sport,

(28:59):
they like watching, they think theyknow something about it, and they
like to bet it. DK horseis relatively new obviously, and I know
it's something DraftKings is really excited about. What do people need to know?
DKA Horse is a is our horseracing app. Now, when I say
it's our app, you can't goto the typical Draft Kings app where you

(29:21):
bet sports and fantasy and casino.You have to download the DK Horse app.
And it's something that's new for us. It's two months old. It's
a great app. You get tobet pretty much every track around not only
the country, but the worlds.You can bet Hong Kong racing. You
can be in action at two threein the morning on that app because we

(29:42):
order there's a lot of content onthere and so it's going really well so
far. We're offering s bet Wehave depositive bonus specials. We have a
special almost every single night of theweek where you bet trifect as you get
more money back to bet on somemore dry effects. We do this and

(30:03):
we do it at various different tracks. So real happy we finally got this
launch. It's kind of a projectthat I started working on when I first
came the company back in twenty andeighteen, and now we finally have it
and it's uh and we're gonna it'sgonna be a great product. We're going
to continue to expand it and dothings you know with the Draft Kings flair,

(30:26):
is that something near and dear toyour heart? Horse betting? It
really is. Um. I've beengoing to the race track and I sais
a very young age. Started goingI was five years old. My mother
and father were horse racing people.They took me. I got involved.
I can read a racing form,I think when I was seven years old.
So bill still involved. Still playand don't play as much as I

(30:51):
used to play, but you know, still play on the big days.
Love Sarahtoba. That's one of myfavorite tracks. I also visit Delmar too
during this uh you know the summermeat. Uh that's another great boot tepe
meat down in southern California. How'sthe early popularity not only for DK horse
but just you know, the Draftkingsports book in general, and Massachusetts knowing

(31:12):
that, you know, there wasso much excitement. One just to go
legal in the state, you know, which obviously happened months ago, but
then a couple months after that mobilebetting and having you know, I mean
you're literally there but having Vegas atyour fingertips that and in time for March
Madness. The the excitement around herewas incredible. But I'm sure, I

(31:33):
know this, you know, forDraftKings, for it to be in the
company's backyard, there was just allthat the excitement was that much larger.
How has everything gone in terms ofjust the you know, sort of the
uh early first couple of months andand sort of h It's not something that
was you know, DraftKings gone legalin a number of states obviously, but

(31:55):
what has Massachusetts become? You know, that much more special? Hey,
Adam, I think we all knewit was going to be really popular when
it opened up in Massachusetts, especiallyon the digital end. The bricks and
mortars, you know, they're fine, but you have to physically go to
the place to make a bet,whereas in the digital application you can bet

(32:15):
from anywhere within the state boundaries.The reason I knew would be really popular
is because when New Hampshire opened upbetting, there were just a bunch of
people from Masks going over to NewHampshire to bet, and then once they
had that opportunity to stay home andplay. I knew that that's what they
would do. And it's been justoverwhelmingly popular there and there's still a lot

(32:38):
of room for it to grow.It's that's also just in its infancy.
Hey, Johnny, I want tobring it back to the NFL here before
we let you go. When you'reforecasting and you know, putting out the
wind totals for a full season thisfar in advance, what is the process
for that. And specifically, likethe Patriots, I think the line set
at seven and a half, whichwould be less wins than they had last

(33:00):
year they had eight. But somepeople feel like with the addition of Bill
O'Brien that they're going to be abetter team this year. Yeah, I
think they probably rely will be too. I know, I like what they
have. It's just that the divisionis just so tough. So we when
we put up the over unders,we go through every game. As you

(33:22):
saw, we put up every game, so we have a good idea of
how big of a favorite or anunderdog these teams are going to be in
each and every game. There anda year, things will change. Don't
get me wrong. Because after teamstarts off three four, no, and
they're playing well, and we onlyhad them projected to get six and a
half wins, there's a good chance, you know, that number is now

(33:45):
probably eight and a half or nine. So there's going to be adjustments on
teams going up, and there's goingto be adjustments on teams going down.
And the reason I say it isbecause we will keep these regular season wins
full year long. We'll just keepmaking the adjustments we're wanting to see that
actually does that. I don't knowif you guys noticed what We've taken every
NFL team and not only given youthe normal number of wins that we think

(34:09):
they're going to have, but we'veadded at least three or four more categories.
And yeah, take the Cardinals forinstance. You know they're four and
a half. We put in twoand a half, six and a half,
and eight and a half. Andwe've done that on every single team.
Some teams we've added four more categories, not three. So we've given

(34:30):
you a lot of options on thegreatest season wins. Johnny, have got
one more for you, and thenwe'll have to let you go where my
producer is going to kill me becausewe're up against the break. But I
just you know, everyone talks aboutsports books and like everyone wants to win.
I know the importance of that,But one thing that I'm wondering is
how much do sports books look atother sports books? Not just in terms

(34:52):
of obviously their success, but theirofferings. You know, just Draft Kings
sit there and say, all right, well, Fandels doing this, and
win Bets doing this, and betMGM is doing this. How about we
do this that type of thing.How much are you paying attention to all
of these different promotions and whatever itmay be that that really does differentiate book
to book. We're aware of everythingthat goes on out there in the industry,

(35:19):
what different people have up, youknow, as far as promotions.
But you know, we pride ourselvesand going up first with content. I
think we're first to market on almosteverything. So we're we are the leader
when it comes to, you know, supplying content and giving customers many options

(35:39):
to wage you're on. But thatbeing said, we need to know what
goes on out there in the industry. Johnny, thanks so much. This
was awesome. Let's have you backagain. You're welcome, guys. You
have a good night. Thanks JohnnyAvello, DraftKings, Director of Race and
Sports Operations. Just a awesome chat. If you missed any of it,

(35:59):
definitely chat out the podcast that'll beposted shortly after the show, available to
you all throughout, you know,tomorrow and whenever you want to go back
and listen, but excellent stuff fromJohnny dan N. I'll dive into some
of it coming up on the otherside. Stay with us here on The
Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Sick andtired of old sports talk and want to
get right into the action. TheGambler with Adam Kaufman. As you covered,

(36:22):
call us now it's six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.
That's six one seven two six sixsix eight six eight. The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman will be right backafter this on WRKO. You know,
I'm kind of excited that we're runningout of time to preview the NBA Finals

(36:45):
because it means the series will actuallybe getting underway soon. With all this
talk, maybe it would be alittle more exciting if the Celtics were still
involved. I am going to haveto find a way to get over that.
I'm just not there yet. I'mjust not there yet. Sure it
doesn't sound looking No, I amnot even close. But again, it
will be a money saver for mebecause I will bet a little, just
a little less stupid when the Bostonteams are not involved in this process Celtics,

(37:08):
in particular, I bet dumber onthe Celtics than any other Boston team.
But we'll save that conversation for anotherday. Our number two of the
Gambler with Adam Kaufman, Welcome back. That was Dan Watkins. Of course
you just heard e J. Pacheckoas our producer. We go back to
the guest line and I am thrilledto welcome in first time on this show
as well, first of many appearances, I hope from Vison NBA betting analyst,

(37:30):
A senior NBA betting analyst hosts aswell. Jonathan von Tobel, Jonathan,
how are you? I'm good.I appreciate you emphasizing senior, although
I'm our only NBA betting analysts,so you know senior by default. Listen,
title counts man. It's you know, they just because maybe because you're
the only one, they don't haveto give you senior. You could just

(37:51):
be NBA betting analysts, so youknow you basically you gave yourself a promotion.
It works. Yeah, that's verytrue, very true. I'd rather
have a title than money, that'ssure. That's that's what we tell people.
So tell me how excited are youbefore we get into all the betting
stuff, just this matchup, thefact that you know it's it's a one
eight in the NBA Finals, veryunusual obviously, but this is not your

(38:14):
usual number eight, because this isan eight that knocked off a one.
It's an eight that knocked off atwo. It's an eighth that was an
underdog against the Knicks and knocked themoff as well. And it's just I
don't know. I guess heat cultureis a real thing. You can you
certainly with pat Riley at the headof the Snake and then Eric Spolstro one
of the best coaches, if notthe best in the NBA today, and
Jimmy Butler, who fears No.One, and a host of very very

(38:37):
good role players, what do youthink we're gonna get here? I'm excited.
You know you mentioned all of thosefactors for Miami. You know,
it's a it's a team that wasthe one seed last year, so we
know they have this pedigree that hasbeen to the conference finals in their conference
three out of the last four.And you know, with Jimmy Butler,
I mean it's I would say,arguably the best playoff performer of his generation.

(38:59):
I mean, guy steps up inplayoff situations like no other player we've
seen in recent memory. Guy's beenfreaking awesome. So I'm excited to watch
that aspect. You know, I'ma basketball nerd. I love to see
what coaches have in store from amatchup an adjustment standpoint. I think both
of these coaches, Michael Malone andEric Spolis phenomenal, so I can't wait
to see what they have in store. And then, of course, the
two time MVP should have been threetime MVP, Nikol Yokah in a team

(39:22):
that you know has been kind ofsniffing around making this run. They were
in the Western Conference finals in thebubble. Injuries offset a lot of different
stuff for them. Of course,to bold free be in the center of
that that years that they got arein Gordon, it looked like they were
destined to make a run like this, but they have to wait until this
year. I mean, there's storylines, goal or there's basketball. I'm really
excited for this series. I cannotwait to see what's going to happen over

(39:43):
the course of this past to seven. Dan and I were just chatting before
you came on about whether or notsports books are still undervaluing or disrespecting the
heat, taking nothing away obviously fromDenver. I mean, I guess I'm
right there with what the sports booksgenerally are offering. I you know,

(40:04):
I like Denver to to cover thenine points. I like Denver to win
comfortably in game one. I likeDenver in a short, probably not sweep,
but five game series. I don'tsee this going six or seven.
And am I guilty with everybody else? Or does Miami, after what it's
accomplished so far, command more respect? You know? I don't think you're

(40:25):
wrong, and I think like there'sthere's a scenario where both are true.
You know, I actually think thatthe market is respecting Miami a little bit
more, and that might surprise somepeople seeing a minus four hundred price tag.
But let's you know, you weretalking about the Celtics. Let's go
back to that series, you know, Game one, the Boston Celtics in
the Eastern Conference Finals. We're eightand a half nine point favorite, exactly
where we're at for this line here, and those those lines, those probabilities,

(40:46):
you know, those money lines alltie in together to a series price.
And yet here we have Denver that'slaying the identical number that Boston was
in Game one a very Eastern Conferencefinal series, and yet for the series,
they're about a dollar fifty cheaper,right because Boston was minus five fifty
to win that series and the DenverNuggets opened up minus three sixty and now
just sitting about minus four hundred.I think there's a very strong argument to

(41:07):
be made that Miami is being respectedby the oddsmakers and buy the market at
this point right now. And Ithink that's also why you saw when you
saw a cheap price of minus threesixty open up on Denver, why that
initial bump went in their direction,Because those two things don't jive, right.
You can't be a nine point favorin game one but only a three
sixty favor for the series. SoI think when you look at those things
and put them together, as weirdas it might seem, because again it's

(41:30):
a big price, I actually dothink the market has really come around to
Miami and started to respect them becausethey were the exact same underdog hearing name
one against Boston. Yet there wereplus four twenty five here they are now
and their opponent is only minus fourhundred. So where do you find value?
In this series. And I mean, obviously, if you think the
Heat have a chance of winning,there's value there. But going beyond that,

(41:51):
you know, do you start tolook at I don't know, maybe
you think, well, Denver's gonnawin and Yokich is incredible, but Murray's
gonna find the way to be finalsMVP and you can get that for whatever
plus twelve hundred or something like that. Where would you find value? Where
would you encourage people to go becauseobviously it's not like there's any to bet
minus four hundred on Denver to win. Yeah, and so I think,

(42:15):
look, if you're somebody like me, and then you know, you and
I sound like we're kind of onthe same page with how the series might
play out. You know, Ithink that Denver is going to win this
series, and I think, thanks, we're talking about here with this series
price that minus four hundred actually isthe so much cheap price for Denver,
especially with the way as a markethas priced them. So if you're if
you're running with that line of thinking, well, then there's there's value and

(42:36):
almost everything else related to Denver towin this series because all of these prices
are derived from that. So youknow, For example, for me,
I laid one and a half gameswith the Denver Nuggets in this series.
I think at the very least tosay that the Nuggets are going to win
this series in sixty five four games, essentially betting them to win the series
about going to a game seven isa very realistic opportunity for the Denver Nuggets.

(42:57):
And you're only looking at about aminus one sixty minus one fifty five
price tag. That's a more palatalfor a lot of betters when you're talking
about trying to dissect that price andlook at it and you're betting into the
same price essentially, where you're justsaying that we want you know, we're
going to have this series end inless than seven games in Denver favor.
So I think that's probably at thetop of the list. For me,
that was the biggest play that I'vemade here because laying one and a half
games of the Denver Nuggets to winthis game, to win this in two

(43:21):
or better games, because I thinkthat is a cheap price for a Denver
team as a ton of advantages,whether it's consistent three point shooting, Niko
Yokichen, his ability to break thezone, the fact that they play in
Denver and that inherent home court advantagehas really helped them throughout this postseason,
undefeated at home so far through thepostseason, only one failed cover. All
of those things, put together withsome of the shortcomings of the Miami Heat,

(43:42):
think lead to a somewhat quick series. So if you want to offset
that big price minus one sixteen anda little bit of a sprinkle on minus
two and a half, even ifyou're somebody who believes the series could be
shorter, I had about a plusone twenty. I think those are two
ways to really attack this where there'ssome value in those prices. Would you
have any conviction to bet a correctscore, you know, Denver four one
or something like that, or doyou just think there's they're way too many

(44:04):
variables there? Stick with the seriesspreads. Yeah, the variables is a
good one. And that's why Istay away from those, because let's look
at Miami right in the way thatthey've gotten here. You know, you
go to that game one, thator that first series against Milwaukee where they
shoot forty seven percent from three overthe course of five games, over fifty
percent uncontested three point attempts. Youknow, that's a lot of high That's
that's extremely high variants in that series. It's crazy that could burden you here

(44:25):
if they steal a game or two, or how in the Boston series where
they shoot fifty eight percent on wideopen looks, which is the highest mark
on those sort of attempts in thelast ten years. You know, you
get burned in certain situations. Iliken it too. You know, when
Philly played Brooklyn in that series,the way I circumvented all of this was
betting that series under five and ahalf games. I wanted to leave myself
some wiggle room just in case ofBrooklyn, that's who took a lot of

(44:49):
shots from three, maybe had ahot night and stole one against Philadelphia.
Now the seventy six ers ends thatin four, but it kind of gives
you that space because you hit onit. You know, in any one
basketball game there can be some varyIt's especially with a Heat team that is
a multiple stretches throughout this postseason wherethey have had some historic shooting. And
I don't want to burn myself bytying myself to one specific result. I
want to leave myself that wiggle room. Dust lay and one and a half

(45:10):
games as opposed to a specific youknow, Denver and four Denver and five
Denver and six. So, Jonathan, something we do here on the show,
and we will do it either towardthe end of the next segment or
maybe even in the final segment beforewe let you go is a people's parlay.
And it's it's about as simple asyou would think. It is Dan,

(45:30):
who you've not heard from yet,but Dan Watkins is here. I
will offer a leg. He willoffer a leg. Of course, you
will offer a leg, and thethree of us will make a parlay for
tomorrow. Could be anything. SoI mean, I you're here, I'm
guessing you're more inclined to make itsomething related to Game one of this series.
But if you want to delve intobaseball, it's your world. Whatever

(45:52):
you want to do, we willmake a three leg parlay for tomorrow.
The only obligation is that you gotto play it. You gotta play with
us. I don't care if youplay it for a buck or a hundred
bucks or anything in between. That'sup to you. But but you gotta
play it. So I wanted towarn you, so I don't. I
don't, just you know, putyou on your toes to give us a
leg. You'll you'll have the breakto do a little bit of research.

(46:15):
All right, you got it.I already have a leg in mind,
so I got you perfect well.You are more prepared than the two of
us. But stay with us.We'll get into some of the bets that
you really like for Game one aswe you know, get out of the
overall series and transition into just whatwe should expect in Denver tomorrow night.
Jonathan von Tolbele from Vison is herewith us on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
Stick around on w RKO. Needa vendabad bad bets. You've come

(46:39):
to the right place, tell usabout it. Call six one seven two
six six six eight six six oneseven two six six six eight six eight,
or if you're listening on the iHeartRadioapp, use the talkback button.
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman will beright back after this. On w RKO,

(47:01):
we're back to Gambler with Adam Kaufmantalking NBA Finals heat. They're in
Denver Nuggets Game one tomorrow night.We are here with Jonathan von tolbel Senior
NBA Betting analysts from Vison, Sokind of him, obviously to spend some
time with us in preview Game one. I know that he has been writing

(47:22):
talking extensively about this series and whatto expect, not just with us but
elsewhere on his own programming and podcastingin print, on Vison site and all
of it. Jonathan, what aresome of the props that jump out as
you for Game one? Where areyou looking? What are some of your
favorite bets? So I think thetop of the list is going to be
Nico yoga points you can look atover twenty seven and a half And on

(47:44):
the surface, it's pretty easy tolook at yoga and say oh oh over
twenty seven and a half points.Sure, but I think it ties into
a bigger picture here and a biggerpicture play as well for the series,
because I think if you were lookingat the many ways that the money and
heat are going to defend the DenverNuggets, I think one of them is
actually going to be just put Bamin a bio on Yokich one on one
and allow him to score and justmake sure that nobody else is going to

(48:06):
beat you. The Nuggets are attheir beast when Yokas just scoring and facilitating
along with his rebounds. But ifyou're able to cut into some of the
assists and forced yoki should be theprimary option and the only option, then
you're starting to get somewhere. Youlook at their three losses in the postseason,
the Denver Nuggets, Yokichen those threelosses actually averaged over forty points per
game, but in the wins heonly averaged twenty seven. Why because he

(48:27):
doesn't need to score as much.Everybody else KCP Shod, Jamal Murray,
Michael Porter Junior, they're all contributingfrom a scoring standpoint, and so I
think that's going to be part ofthe game plan, and I think that's
a larger game plan for them throughoutthe series, which leads me to go
not only over twenty seven and ahalf points for Yokich, but you can
also find him at plus one fifteento be the final leader in total points.
I think the way to victory herefrom Miami, or at least the

(48:49):
most probable big app is going tobe to shut everybody else down and allow
Yokas to operate on his own.And I think those two things Kevaly correlate,
so for sure, at the topof the list for me prop wising
to be over twenty seven and ahalf for Yokich, and you can tie
that into Finals leader untilal points ofplus one fifteen Jonathan. So, going
off of that, do you doesthat make you want to stay away from
Yokich's assist prop or is triple doubleprop. I'm looking at that triple double

(49:13):
line of even money for tomorrow nightand I'm thinking about jumping all over it.
Yeah, So that's I would wantto stay away from it because if
I'm right right, that means thatthey're going to be guarding everybody else.
They're going to be denying the ballthere. These assists are going to be
cut into And I think too,you as a better aren't really getting as
much value as you should in aprop like that, because like, look,
I mean, he's averaging a crazytriple doub throughout this postseason, and

(49:35):
so of course a lot of thatis baked into it, you know for
the series. For example, there'sbets out there where you can bet Yokis
to average triple double for the series, and you're laying a price like that's
for a guy like him, he'sawesome, but that's something for you as
a better that you're not getting muchvalue there, And especially if I'm right
where you even think about it,you know Jamal Murray is going to get
Jimmy Bubbler on him a fast majorityof this series. Himming Butler is a

(49:57):
very good defender that's going to cutinto the two man game for Yoki and
for Jamal Murray. And if that'snot there, well, while they have
a lot of good pieces, theydon't have a lot of good shot creators,
right kcps a catch and shoot threat, Michael Porter Jr. Is a
catch and shoot threat. Aaron Gordonis a lob threat that doesn't really post
up a whole bunch so or acutter to the basket, and all of
those other guys operate off of passesand assists from Yoki. So if they're

(50:19):
contained to a certain extent by whatMiami wants to do, then I think
that cuts into the assists and itcuts into the potential for Yokers to have
a triple level not only Game one, but obviously for the series that you
mentioned Jamal Murray, Jamal Murray,that's one of the bets that I've been
thinking about. This isn't specific togame one, although Game one plays into
it. You know, just someof these series bets, like you had

(50:39):
mentioned Nicole Yokich and averaging a troublelevel for the series. Something you can
bet on at various books is youknow who's going to make the most threes
in the series. And I lookat it, it's like, I mean,
should be Murray, and obviously Murrayis favored, but you know Porter
could be sneaky. Oh so I'mglad you brought that up. That was
one of the pieces my main Finalspreview. I wrote a few bets.

(51:02):
One of them was actually Michael PorterJunior to lead this series and made three
point shots. And since I've writtenthis avvitt, it's actually moved down.
It was plus three eighty, it'sdown to plus three thirty. So if
you look at like Michael Porter Junioras a whole, if we're kind of
continuing down this path of what wethink the Miami Heat might do, especially
with Jimmy Butler defender on Jamal Murray, well then if you start to divvy

(51:22):
up the other defensive assignments, andif we're saying damaa Bio obviously gets Nikoliokich,
well that leaves Kyle Lowry, MaxShrus or Caleb Martin to guard any
one of Aaron Gordon, Michael PorterJunior, or can gave his call Will
Pope And in two of those matchupsMichael Porter Junior and Aaron Gordon, the
heat are going to be given awaysome size, whether it's weight and height
or whether it's Porter Junior. SoMichael Porter Junior, I think, is

(51:45):
going to be the benefit of gettinga smaller guy that he can shoot over
contests if they're facing his own defense, which we're probably going to see pretty
well. Right if Miami lefts torun that two three zone, how do
you break a team out of atwo three zone? Will you shoot the
ball? And they got a bunchof guys who can shoot, namely Michael
Porter Junior, who's a great andshoot thread at just over forty four percent.
And if you're going to get someof those shot attempts taken away from
Jamal Murray, what the trickle downeffect is that Michael Porter Junior is going

(52:07):
to get a little bit more.And you even go to the Western Conference
Finals, Jamal Murray only made onemore three point attempt than Michael Porter Junior
in that series. So the gapbetween them isn't even that large anyway,
So I agree with you, Like, if you're looking around, you might
want to look at Jamal Murray,but I think you're looking a little bit
further down the board and the marketwith a Greek because they've pushed this down
about thirty fifty cents or so.So I want to bring this to the

(52:29):
other side and the heat side ofthis. Caleb Martin has been a guy
in the last round that I wasjust throwing on the over every single game.
It was at twelve and a halfand it was just hitting consistently.
The books have finally responded here it'sat fifteen and a half, opening up
for game one. How should weplay Martin in this series? I think
we're I think we're looking for someunders for Caleb Martin. And by the
way, somebody, I bet thisguy to win the Eastern Conference Finals FP,

(52:50):
so I'm glad you were betting himgame In the game, I felt
burned by the fact that he didn'tget that thing and only lasted by one
vote. But he's been brilliant andwhat's going to be interesting to watch here
is, as you've mentioned, youknow, the market respects him, and
he has earned that respect now becausehe has been so great when you're talking
about it, but if you lookat overall Miami Heat players, for him
to be third on the board interms of points and for a point prop

(53:14):
and just one point behind Bambata Bio, it shows you how much the market
has now come to respect Caleb Martin, and so all of the value that
was there when you're betting his pointtotals over is kind of starting to wane,
and then we kind of get tothe overall like matchup itself, and
I think when you look at this, Denver has very quietly throughout this postseason
been a very good defensive team,a non garbage time defensive rating a one

(53:35):
twelve point five. Of all ofthe teams that have at least played two
playoffs series or more, they haveallowed the fewest wide open three point attempts
of any of those teams. Sothey're pretty sound defensively. They're not going
to give up wide open looks,and they at least have a couple of
decent defenders in Kintavious called Lolo Popeor Erin Gordon, and you could probably
see quite a few scenarios in whichKCP is on Caleb Martin, which is

(53:55):
going to hurt his productivity a littlebit too. So I think you throw
all the things together and it wouldlead me to look under, especially when
you're talking about it and I'm lookingat the props right now. Not only
is you have fifteen and a half, you're laying a buck forty on the
over as a vetter. So Ithink very much now as we're looking at
Klea Martin, it's no slidly giveshim. It's just the market has really
facted a lot of a success inand now you're get them plus prices on

(54:16):
under fifteen and a half. AndI think that's definitely the way to look.
Is there a heat role player thatyou're targeting tomorrow night or in this
series? You know, I thinkif you're kind of looking at who it
might be, I think you're probablylooking at a Gabe Vincent. I think
what you're trying to do is you'regoing to try to find the guy that's
gonna gonna get Jamal Murray mostly onhim defensively him or Michael Porter Jr.
Because those are the guys that they'regoing to go after, and they're going

(54:38):
to target and in you know,Miami a very strong team in terms of
hunting mismatches, and Gabe Vincent's there, and Gave Vinston's a brilliant shot creator
that is not going to attract asmuch defensive attention as a Jimmy Butler or
as a Klea Martin. And sothat trickle down effect might be that Gabe
Vincent gets the lesser defenser our defenderson him as the series goes along.

(54:58):
You know, I think a lotof people would be tempted by like a
Jimmy Butler, but the words thething I'm worried about what Jimmy Butler is
since he twisted that ankle in Gameone, guys, and he came back.
He's only shooting forty two percent fromthe flore You know, he hasn't
been overly effective in terms of hisfield goal accuracy, and I think that's
kind of starting to wear on him. So if I'm looking anywhere for Miami,
I'm trying to find it a littlebit deeper, and I think Gave

(55:19):
Benson would be at the top ofthe list. Are there any unders that
are jumping out at you? Youknow, it's it's not exciting to root
for an under. I understand that, but when it comes to you know,
some of these it doesn't have tobe the points category, whatever prop
category you're looking at, just someof these unders that it's like, man,
that that line, it just seemsa little high for this guy.
Well, let's go back to ourguy, Caleb Martin. You know,

(55:42):
if we're talking, I don't eventhink just points. You know, his
made threes prop it's at a twoand a half and you're laying about a
buck forty five on that to theunder. I think that's worth looking at
here for Caleb Martin again, goingback to what we're going to see from
Denver. You know, a teamthat does not give up wide open threes
by any stretch, he's not goingto be able to, I think,
find some clean books along the perimeter. They're very good at running their opponents

(56:04):
off of the three point line orthe very at least contesting three point looks.
And I think that's going to cutinto Caleb Martin and his protectivity from
three point range. And you alsothink too that as great as he's been
and I'm a Mount West fan,so I like Caleb Martin. His story,
the Planet the Bat, I gotto watch him up closet many times
when I worked to ULB and coveredthe basketball team. The guy's great,
but he is playing a little abovethe skis as a forty seven percent three

(56:25):
point shooter or forty five percent threepoint shooter on a series against Boston.
But the market, of course isgoing to adjust. So when you're talking
about two and a half, Ithink it's a pretty high number for Caleb
Martin, especially when you're looking atthe way that the Nuggets play, and
I think if anything, that wasthe top under on my list was looking
at Caleb Martin under two and ahalf made three point shots. Yeah,
it's something I was. I wasstaring at two just sort of thinking into

(56:47):
the future and considering my options forthe people's parlay. But I don't know
that guy has burned me enough timesfor me start betting against them. Anything
that you think would surprise people likeknowing it's it's always fun, obviously when
when the series starts and you geta little predictability in terms of rotations and

(57:08):
patterns, and you know this guyis thriving and the defense has no answer
for that, whatever it may be. Obviously, we haven't seen these two
teams in any sort of meaningful actionin the way that we are about to
right now. Are we reading gamesthe right way or do you think there's
something that could totally blindside this.You know, I'm not entirely sure.

(57:29):
I guess like I would go likenarratively, what might surprise some people is
how good of a coach Michael Maloneis. You know, the Nuggets are
a team that kind of operates ina little bit of a bubble throughout the
regular season, and that's, youknow, their own fault. There's a
lot of TV issues at them sothat a lot of people get to watch
them. Their last run came intwenty and twenty, as you mentioned,
in the Western Conference Finals. AndI think that might be something because I

(57:52):
think the world of Michael Malone.I think he's a brilliant coach. I
think you've seen the way he operatesthroughout this entire postseason. You know,
we'll go back to the Western ConferenceFinal. Remember after Game one, everybody
and their mother's like, hey,you know, Nuggets probably should treat Game
one after as a loss. Thatthere was an adjustment. The Lakers found
a way to defend Nikoly Yoki,And so what Michael Malone did was like
nam like, you guys really didn't. What we're gonna do is if you're

(58:13):
gonna put Anthony Davis off ball oroff Nikola Yokich, We're gonna take Anthony
Davis's guy and we're gonna essentially puthim on the opposite side of the court,
and we're gonna let Yokich operate againsta smaller defender you're putting on him.
And it completely tore apart what theLakers were gonna do defensively, and
they had him guessing almost every singlewhich way in terms of their offensive schemes.
I think Malone's awesome, and Ithink if we're talking about something that
might surprise some people, as wesaw Eric Spoelstra pull off what he did

(58:36):
at the Eastern Conference finals and thatmassive gap between him and Joe Massoula,
I think people might be surprised howsmall the gap is between Michael Malone and
Eric Spoelstra. I think he's avery good head coach. This first game
in particular, obviously it's the wholerest versus rush thing. On the Denver
side. People are talking about thealtitude it in Denver is as it relates

(58:57):
to Miami coming in first quarter toldpoints fifty six and a half. Do
you like the over or the under? Yeah, so I think there probably
is going to be some sort offeeling out process between these two. I
would very much lean to the underthere because you're still operating against each other
for the very first time. Butit's an effect for the Altitude and for
what we're going to see from Miami. I think when we see these scenarios

(59:19):
for teams coming off of game sevens, and you know, of course the
story tradition of playing against those teams, I think what generally actually happens is
you don't see that manifest of thefirst half, and especially when you're playing
against Denver and Altitude, those legsstart to as the game goes along.
So you're probably going to see thatin this first half. A pretty competitive
first half for the Miami Heat,but as the game wears along, you're

(59:42):
going to see that really dip interms of production. I mean, you
look at the series against the PhoenixSuns. For the Denver Nuggets, where
they really made their hey against thePhoenix Suns was in those fourth quarters.
They blitzed the Suns in the fourthquarters when they were playing at home,
and I think that's really where youstart to see like some of these teams
where you're talking thinking about, hey, like what's going on with them?
How are they starting to fall apart? When does it happen? You're generally

(01:00:05):
looking there, and you see inthe fourth quarter of the postseason so far
at home to Denver Nuggets by farthe best net rating a plus fourteen point
seven. That's where you're starting tosee the difference. And I think that's
how you want to play it.If you want to play Miami first half
and in Denver second half or oncethe fourth quarter starts, I think that's
the way to attack a situation likethat. All right, Jonathan von Toble
is here from Veson. We aregoing to build out the people's parlay when

(01:00:28):
we come back. Go nowhere,let's win people some money. Sick and
tired of old sports talk and wantto get right into the action. The
Gambler with Adam Kaufman, as youcovered, call us now with six one
seven two six six six eight sixeight. That's six one seven two six
six six eight six eight. TheGambler with Adam Kaufman will be right back

(01:00:51):
after this on wr K O VSA, senior NBA betting analysts Jonathan von Tobul
is here and it is his firstfour into the People's parlay, and Jonathan,
I hope you can help us breakthe schnide here because we're in a
bit of a rut. Straight legsdoing great, well over five hundred.
In fact, we hit two outof the three in the three leg parlay

(01:01:12):
today. But if you didn't playthem straight, as we always tell the
people to do, then well youlost. You just play and lost your
money. And unfortunately last night,well today, but the bets were placed
last night. Unfortunately, in thecase of this latest parlay, it was
the guest to let us down.So the pressure is on you to make
sure that you do your part tomorrow. Are you ready? Yes? I

(01:01:35):
am ready? All right? Well, you said you already had a prop
leg in mind for tomorrow. Doesn'tneed to be a prop by the way,
a leg in mind for a parleytomorrow. What are you having us
play here? I'm throwing the yokachover points. I think that is going
to be the best way for theMiami to come out this defensively. I
think when you watch them in thepast. You see some of the matchups

(01:01:57):
they're comfortable putting bam at a Bioon on one on one matchup that Yokich
has thrived in. He has shotsixty two percent over the last two years
Mbama to Bio as his primary defender, sixty eight percent from the floor against
Miami overall over the last two years. I think the strategy is going to
be let Yokich have his from ascoring standpoint, make sure nobody else beats
you, and that would leads youto over the total of twenty seven and

(01:02:17):
a half. So my leg willbe over twenty seven and a half total
points for Yokitch in game one.Mister Watkins, all right, So I'm
gonna do something I don't normally dofor the people's parlay, and that's back
the Red Sox. I'm gonna goRed Sox money line tomorrow. The Socks
have lost three r l but theyhave Chris Sale on the mound, who
seemingly has become Chris Sale again,just seven earn runs allowed in his last

(01:02:38):
four starts, pitching really well hislast time out against Arizona. He also
had to stop a losing streak thatnight. So I'm thinking he's going to
do it again tomorrow night at Fenway. So I was thinking, I'm not
gonna do it. Well, Iwill do it me personally individually, but
for the people's parlay, I willnot do it. I'm I'm fond of

(01:03:00):
the Mets run line tomorrow, andI know, I know how we talk
about the Mets on this show.Isn't that our one? I know generally
the Mets are banned, but Ilike the spot tomorrow against Philly. What
I'm going to do for the people'sparlay, and this might be the first
time that when you put it alltogether, we are playing a sub plus

(01:03:20):
four hundred parlay, which doesn't exciteme quite as much, but hey,
it is what it is, andwe really need to win, and this
particular one is it's a little iffy, but I'm going with it anyway.
Cantavious called, well, Pope overtwo and a half rebounds. Now he
has done this five out of thelast seven games. I think he will
be positioned well to do it onthe floor. The only question is will

(01:03:43):
the minutes back it up. Generallythat has been the case, you know,
from late in the second round againstPhoenix. Really all the way through
that series against the Lakers, he'sgoing to be out there for roughly thirty
five minutes. He should be ableto get three boards. I think he's
average right around three even maybe alittle bit more than that here in the
playoffs. So over two and ahalf rebounds for Contavious Caldwell, Pope is

(01:04:08):
what I am doing to complete thisthree leg parlay, which puts me well
at least where I'm building it rightaround plus three seventy five sounds good.
Do you have any confidence in thatleg, Jonathan, I think it makes
a lot of sense, especially whenyou're talking about the size advantage at Denver's
got, right. I mean,they've got three guys that are essentially over

(01:04:28):
six nine, so a lot ofconcentration is gonna be one boxing those two,
doubt, and if Miami's shooting abunch of threes, which they know,
they're gonna take a lot of jumpshots long rebounds for backward players,
you can get a lot of reboundsin that regard, So I would say,
yeah, it makes a lot ofsense. I am curious too,
and I contemplated putting this in theparlay, but inevitably I'll just play it
straight or put it in a differentpartlay or something like that. But Yokich

(01:04:50):
over rebounds. It's thirteen and ahalf. It's a big number, I
know, But I mean he didthis what three out of four times in
the Lakers sweep, and he doesn'thave an Anthony Davis on the other side.
Like I know, Bam is BAM, and BAM is capable of having
a good rebounding night. But thereis nobody nearly as big or physically imposing

(01:05:11):
as Anthony Davis. And this isa category that Yokich cleared with ease in
the previous round. You like theover thirteen and a half, You know,
I think it's probably maked a littlehigh. But if you were telling
me pick one or the other,I'd pick over because again, I mean,
when you're talking about matching up atthe head of Bio, who is
sitting at about like six nine ona good day, you're gonna have to
find a lot of opportunities because thesize drop off is immense. And even

(01:05:33):
with the length of Yokich has,we've seen him time and again just snatch
rebounds over the head of the dudesbecause he's got it, especially on the
offensive side of the floor, soI think I'd understand it. I think
for sure, if we're looking atthe way that you know these teams are
going to go at each other,I'd rather go over on rebounds than I
would on assists eurly, just givenhow I think Miami's going to approach this.
So the official people's parlay that iscontavious called weell Pope over two and

(01:05:56):
a half rebounds, Nicole Yokich overtwenty seven and a half point and the
Red Sox on the money line toget it done with Chris Sale on the
mound. That is our bet.Everybody place it at your leisure and we
all get to sweat it together.In a matter of speaking, Jonathan Sak,
thanks so much for hopping on withus this. This is a lot
of fun. We'll definitely bug youagain. Yeah man, you got it.
Thanks a lot for having me absolutely, Jonathan von Toba once again from

(01:06:19):
Beson and be a senior betting analystsand uh again Dan, a lot of
great information. Yeah, and youknow, I'm feeling oddly optimistic about this
part lay tomorrow. I don't knowwhat it is. I actually like have
a good feeling tomorrow going into thisso that the first time in a while.
It is it is. I haven'tfelt Yeah, I have not felt
good hitting that, hitting that sendbet and button. Maybe it's good there's

(01:06:41):
no run line bets on this,but yeah, I'm feeling good about it.
Did you get scared when I startedto bring up the mist I did?
I did? I was like,oh God, should I just fade
at him? Should I just doa two leg and fade at him?
But I won't tell him, Yeah, just won't tell him. But then
you backed off, So it wasgood. Oh goodness, because I was
looking at that him as well withScherzer, but you know he's been kind
of hit or missed this year,so we'll see. Yeah again, I'm

(01:07:05):
sure I'm gonna play it. Ijust know you're gonna play it. I
didn't. I didn't figure i'd I'dpotentially sink all three of us together.
I'm oddly nervous about the called bowPope pick, and I like it.
It just it makes a lot ofsense to me. I like another one
I considered too, and I willprobably play this either as part of another

(01:07:26):
parlay or just a straight leg becauseI have not been going as heavy on
the parlays of late as I oncedid intelligently, so um sticking with called
bow Pope over one and a halfthree pointers. He did that, He's
done that each of his last fivegames. I mean, the guy is
putting up six seven eight a night. Yeah. Yeah, but that could
also come back to what Jonathan wastelling us about that expect Yokich's assist numbers

(01:07:50):
to be way down in Miami tojust kind of let him go off and
score. So sure, true,true, something to consider. All right,
well we are going to step aside. This show always goes by very
very quickly, which it's just fun. We're all having a good time.
I've learned a lot too. It'svery informational tonight. Yeah, this,

(01:08:10):
I mean, I like to believeall the shows are, but this one
in particular, from you know,the inside analysis, from from a sportsbook
oddsmaker, to obviously all the nittygritty that we just gave you over the
last forty five minutes or so relatingto the NBA Finals Game one. Very
informational program, no doubt about it. And also that leaves us with only
one show left in this week,which will come up tomorrow to go opposite

(01:08:36):
Game one of the NBA Finals andkeep an eye on that. I guess
Meisselmann doesn't need to be on standbywith the Celtics not playing, and we
also will be able to preview Gameone of the Stanley Cup Final, which
is coming up on Saturday. Soa lot of good stuff coming. But
tomorrow is a new day. Ina short day on the Diamond gives us

(01:08:57):
an opportunity to look ahead. We'llput the show to bed when we come
back. You're on The Gambler withAdam Kaufman. Need a venta bad bad
bets? You've come to the rightplace. Tell us about it. Call
six one seven two six six sixeight six at six one seven two six
six six eight six eight, orif you're listening on the iHeartRadio app,

(01:09:18):
use the talkback button. The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman will be right back after
this on WRKO. Now it's timeto put this show to bed. With
my pillow, I was just thinkingabout what I'm going to do to put

(01:09:44):
myself to bed after this show,thinking that after last night I watched ted
Lasso and then the season finale offu Bar. After that, one of
my maybe I was gonna put onthe new Shazam tonight, but I forgot
tonight, Dan, it's a seasonfinale of Dave, so I gotta watch
Dave tonight after this. I amnot familiar with that, so Dave fact

(01:10:04):
show. Yeah, it's it's aboutthe rapper Little Dickey's familiar with his work,
gotcha. Yeah, I've seen alot about Food Bar, though I
have not dug into that yet.But it's fun. Is it's a fun
show. Yeah, I mean youdon't. You don't have to twist my
arm to watch anything with Arnold.So it's it's basically a like if you
were to turn you remember the movieTrue Lies, if you if you were

(01:10:25):
to turn that into a series asopposed to just a movie. But said
it like, way in the future, what or you know his his daughter
grows up and is old enough toalso be a spy. That is essentially
food Bar. Okay, cool?Go yeah check it out. Yeah your
leisure. It's just so much sportsright now. It's just hard. It's
hard to viewing Happens after midnight.Yeah, no, this it's hard to

(01:10:50):
do it. Like I'm not evencaught up with Succession yet, which is
like I still have three episodes togo on that before and that show just
ended this past spoilers they're everywhere.Yeah, I've been finished a prep my
fall, Dan, I just finishedas a pranos. That show is like
the greatest show of all time.He is a little behind the time.
Very good. All right, guys, have you heard a Game of Thrones?
Yeah, I gotta watch that yet. EJ will get to ted last

(01:11:15):
so in twenty years you guys everseen the wire? All right, let's
uh, let's put this show tobed before. I guess we don't go
to bed because the only time thatwe can watch TV there's a lot happening
tomorrow. I know we've been fixatedon Game one of the NBA Finals.
There's baseball, there's the Memorial.What what are you most excited about here?
Yeah? So the Memorial definitely hasmy eye. It's the last big

(01:11:36):
tournament here before the US Open ina couple of weeks. I've been kind
of crunching the numbers here, goingthrough all the different write ups and rundowns
and everything. And I've got acouple of guys that I'm looking at here.
No surprise, the favorite in thisone is Scottie Shuffler and so Vison
did this great rundown on the tournamenttrends and all that, and they came

(01:11:57):
up with the stat that both winnersin the last two years here have led
the field or have led the fieldfor strokes strokes gained Tita Green and right
now, who leads that stat inthe PGA, it would be Scottie Scheffler.
But that's no fun. His oddsare you know it likes plus six
hundred. I think those are plussix to fifty on draft kings, So
that's not much fun. Guy I'mlooking at is he'd be the third favorite

(01:12:17):
on the board. Patrick Cantley.He's won this tournament in two out of
the last four years. He hasbeen playing some great golf lately. His
last eight events at him, he'sfinished hide for twenty one or better in
each of them. He's had abunch of top ten finishes, a bunch
of top five's. The only thinghe has has not done in the last
eight events is win. So he'ssitting at plus one thousand, So I

(01:12:39):
might throw a little bit on him. Definitely gonna throw on him in a
little bit of a top five finishfor him, because he plays this course
so well and that's at two forty. And then one other guy here that
I really like is Victor Hobland.At least come in the top ten.
He's been playing some great golf aswell. Isn't it funny how we look
at golf like you're just sort ofscoffing at a plus six hundred would,
right, which would be like areally impressive any time home run or any

(01:13:01):
time goal or something. Yeah,that like a somewhat of a long shot
pick. Obviously it'd be a greatparlay. It'd be you know, a
massive underdog coming from behind live ingate plus six hundred. There's no value
there, Yeah, yeah, Imean it's not fun. It's not fun.
It's not fun if I put downten bucks and only get sixty five.

(01:13:21):
I mean, come on, I'dlove to win. It's four days.
That the way, the way thisday is going too far. You
know, maybe I should just onthe side, Yeah, just a few
bucks, Yeah, just to feelsomething. How about on the diamond again?
As I mentioned a short slate onlya half dozen games, I mentioned

(01:13:42):
the Mets run line money line aregoing to be intriguing. Despite our feelings,
backing the Red Sox makes a lotof sense. Maybe even on the
run line with Chris Sale on themound, and you figure they gotta beat
Cincinnati as good as that offense hasbeen, gotta beat Cincinnati at some point
here beyond that, what Blue Jays? Uh, you know, it's the
Blue Jay's money line is just it'sit's not a it's not a good number.

(01:14:05):
Uh so it's you know, you'dalmost just for value sake, be
drawn to the run line if ifyou believe enough in Toronto. But what
what are you looking at tomorrow?Yeah, so I'm looking at here.
Let me see some of these pitchingmatchups before I, uh, you know,
say anything. Uh digging in whatelse we got? Yeah, Gosman's
on the mount for Toronto, soobviously that makes a lot of sense.

(01:14:26):
Uh the over maybe in this ArizonaColorado game, it's at ten. It's
a high number, but Zack Davieshas beginning been getting lit up and Colorado's
pitching is just terrible, So that'snot totally surprising there. It's sixth nothing
right now in the seventh inning ofthat one. Um and then Pablo Lopez
is on the mound for the Twins. They're not a huge favorite, just
minus one forty on the money line, and Lopez has been pitching well too.

(01:14:49):
We think anyone's ever gonna win thisYankees Mariners game zero or score a
run even Didn't you want the overin this one? Sure did? Yeah?
Did you actually take that? Yeah? The over? I also had
the Yankees team over. Ouch,I told you horrid day. I mean,
George Kirby has just been so goodthis year for the Mariners. Eight

(01:15:10):
innings, seven strikeouts, just threehits allowed, note walks. Oh well,
I don't think we're getting eight runsin extra innings here. Nope,
that seems pretty unlikely. So allright, Well tomorrow we will inevitably have
somebody come on help us talk alittle NBA opposite the game around probably after

(01:15:31):
the game, in the second hourand the first hour, will do some
hockey look ahead the game one ofthe Stanley Cup Final, Rus Cassidy and
the Vegas Golden Nights going up againstanother eight seed from South Florida, the
Florida Panthers. You know, forall the joking we did about a joint
and parade here in Boston might actuallyhappen in and around Miami. Yeah,
yeah, it's never happened before.Winning both the Stanley Cup and the NBA

(01:15:56):
Finals from one city or one metroarea. Excuse me because it's Rise,
not Miami, down there in Florida. For it's never happened same at both
winning both in one year, andI don't imagine it will either. But
if it did for two eight seeds, I mean, that would be one
of the greatest stories in all ofsports history. But if you missed any
of this show, check out thepodcast. It will be available to you

(01:16:18):
shortly available wherever you get your podcasts, be it obviously Apple, Spotify,
you know, Pandora, you nameit. Thanks to EJ, thanks to
Dan, thanks to Johnny, toJonathan. I am Adam. We'll talk
to you again in twenty two hours. For the best night sleep you've ever
had, go to Mike Pillow dotcom and use the code Gambler. You've

(01:16:40):
been listening to The Gambler with AdamKuffman on six eighty w r KO.

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