March 11, 2025 • 53 mins
March 11, 2025: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guests Sammy Choudhury (@sc_ffb) from FTN Network and professional handicapper Rob Donaldson (@robdfb). LOTSA hoops headed our way on Wednesday, from a full day on the college hardwood to a busy night in the pros. Choudhury takes a look at the NBA slate, which includes a possible Finals preview between Boston and Oklahoma City. Donaldson dissects an extensive college board as the field narrows to 68.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Locks, Leans and everything in between.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
It says here we should work in teams. It wants
to be my sponnor. I don't think you should be
doing too much gambling tonight, Alan gambling. There s anything
about gambling.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
It's not gambling when you know you're gonna win.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Now back to Boston's only nightly betting show, The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman. Listen on the iHeartRadio app or you're
smart speaker.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Let's get into some NBA four games today almost fully concluded,
light slate, much bigger tomorrow, including Boston, Oklahoma City. But
before we get to our next guest, our good friend
Sammy Chowdrick, just to vent for a moment, we should
have a live people's parlay right now. We gave out
(00:55):
collectively Western Kentucky minus four and a half. That's up
by four about twelve minutes to go as I see it,
Northern Colorado minus three and a half. They're up by
like fifteen midway through the second half. In the Milwaukee
Bucks minus two and a half, the Bucks were down
or even much of this game never had a commanding
(01:18):
lead or anything like that because of late free throws
after taking a lead managed to take a three point lead. Again,
we had a minus two and a half, managed to
take a three point lead with like I don't know,
ten to fifteen seconds left, maybe less pacers have an
(01:43):
opportunity obviously to try and tie force overtime. And I
will admit I'm sitting there watching this trying to thread
a very tight needle because in my biggest builder of
the night, I had Yannis at twenty points. Let me
tell you a little bit about Giannis's night. Well, every
(02:07):
projection that you could find probably had him at twenty
five north of thirty points. For whatever reason, Jannis decides
he's not gonna be aggressive in this game, goes nine
of thirteen from the field, one of three from the
free throw line, lands at nineteen points, heading into this
(02:28):
moment where Tyrese Haliburton, as he's falling toward the crowd
in the corner, launches a three with about four seconds left,
It drops and he gets fouled. Who fouls him? Yannis?
Yannis fouls him, so not only does Janis, who then
(02:51):
his time expires, launches a three at the buzzer, trying
to give the Bucks a win. Wouldn't give us the cover,
but tries to give him the win and would have
put me over twenty points. He misses, so he takes
a final shot after a pedestrian fourth quarter reaches. Wasn't
even being aggressive, completely deferential. He did finish with seven assists,
(03:13):
but he's just hand the ball off, hand the ball off,
give other people their opportunities. Credit the Pacers, I guess
somewhat for the way they were defending him, but he
wasn't even trying to attack the basket. So he goes
nine to fourteen again, misses two free throws, lands at
nineteen points, and not only does he not get me
the twenty to keep the builder alive, which I know,
(03:33):
I'm certain with every fiber of my being is going
to cash except for this one leg. He's the reason
that we don't even get overtime to try and get
the cover for the show play until I try and
get him to twenty points. He doesn't get to twenty,
and then he has the foul on Heliburton to give
him the three point shot and one, and the Pacers
(03:53):
end up winning by one. At least we could have
split the difference. Play some tighter defense. Get your hands up,
don't touch the guy, he misses the three and we
get the cover and the People's Parlay is live, but No,
doesn't go down that way. Instead, Giannis doubly bends me
over and we wind up losing across the board. So
it sucks. The official show plays right now. Are you know?
(04:17):
We're chasing even because you know, People's Parlay is dead,
My play is dead. Dance bank Roll Repair, one of
them is dead. He did give out two. My bank
Roll Repair somehow, by the Heaven's above ends up cashing
because we get Cleveland on the money line, who was
down by eighteen, coming back to win that thing virtually
(04:38):
at the buzzer. We're chasing a group play that we
just gave out. You know, the other two legs of
the People's Parlay were getting after Sammy Chowdry, who's about
to join us from ft on Network, gave us a
loser tonight. But I can't even come after him because
all the guy does is of us winners. It never
happens that he gives us losers. It just happened to
happen tonight. And of course we need Montana to cash
(04:59):
Dan's other at plus one twenty. But this could be
a solid even profitable night or maybe it's a crappy night.
But I'm feeling crappy and I want to throw up.
Speaker 4 (05:09):
Yeah, that was insane shot by Halliburton. It reminded me
of Jalen Brown Game one of the Eastern Conference Finals
last year against against Indiana. So they got their own
little corner three there tonight and yeah, just insane. It's been.
It's kind of been just one of those kind of
days here on the gambling streets. Just just awful.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
I don't I don't even know what my blood pressure
is right now. Sammy Chowdrey joins us from FTN Network
analyst over there on Twitter at sc Underscore FFB in
the Shadows, a daily contributor to this show because he
gives you Chowdrey's choice on a daily basis his absolute
favorite bet across the board again, Will he take a
loser today? Sure? But you know what's Sammy's all time
(06:00):
record is on the show, dating back to even before
we started getting his play the day Sammy is going
to be with tonight twenty four nine and three. I
don't think we're coming after Sammy in any sort of
a negative way. Sammy, how are you man?
Speaker 5 (06:16):
Good?
Speaker 6 (06:16):
Yeah, man, it makes me sick because like the initial play,
which like for those of you guys don't know, I'm
probably sending him my plate like what like four or.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Five, five in the morning.
Speaker 6 (06:26):
Yeah, yeah, And it's like the initial play was actually
I'm in mobiley points and I was sort of going
back and forth and last minute pivoted to Bogdanovich and
even as we were talking, he misses a wide open
three that what to cut the score to one potential
chance of ot misses it, and then it's said, but yeah,
(06:48):
it happens, but we'll get after it tomorrow morning, no
doubt about it.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
I have to remind myself when you have days like this,
because all gamblers have days like this obviously, where it's
just you're on the wrong side of variants like I
would have played Yanna's twenty plus points tonight in a builder,
you know, a hundred times out of one hundred. The
guy has hit that mark, like, you know, ninety five
percent of games this season, and you know, I think
one time when he missed he was injured, you know,
(07:15):
so his minutes were limited like that. He's he's having
an incredible year like Yana's twenty points for him. You know,
we're not talking about like, you know, is Malik Beasley
gonna get there? Like Yianni's is Like that's that's virtually
a free square. Most nights, I would play it over
and over and over again. But I do need to
remind myself that I won't get into the specifics. But
(07:35):
I was in a massive hole in January that I
have managed to knock on wood, climb out of and
turn myself green, you know, through just the right side
of variants. So like, this is gambling, this is this
is what happens obviously, and and all we can do
is try and you know, wash it away and move
to tomorrow. So that in mind, we got a much
(07:56):
bigger slate tomorrow, Sammy, including here in Boston, sell Diics thunder.
Now it's it's not you know, we would love to
look at this and say, hey, potential NBA Finals preview
and and maybe it will be, but it's not going
to quite look the part because uh not, neither team
is fully healthy from the Celtics perspective. Uh as it
(08:20):
stands right now, probably uh A, pardon me, you have
Jaylen Brown probable, Chris Stamps porzingis questionable. Not doubtful. Questionable.
He's been Yeah, he's been doubtful quite a bit lately.
Jason Tatum is questionable. Those are the guys on the
injury report. Everyone else is expected to be out there, obviously,
but on the OKC side, Jalen Williams is not going
(08:42):
to be there. Who is a you know, a massive factor.
He's not Jay, he's not SGA, he's not the MVP,
but he is a huge complimentary piece for that team.
So when we see Boston sitting, you know, I'm looking
at minus four. Let's see if that's that's consistent. We've
got minus four four and a half might be a
rogue three and a half on ESPN. If the numbers
(09:03):
in front of me are right, how do you bet
this game?
Speaker 5 (09:08):
Yeah, this one's really tough. Number one.
Speaker 6 (09:11):
We're gonna need to see. I would say probably the
most important Q tag gives Jason Tatum. And it did
seem like, you know, last game was more of a
maintenance they I know a lot of people were getting
ahead of that and backing Jalen Brown with the assumption
that Tatum was gonna miss that game.
Speaker 5 (09:29):
Coming off of what he played like.
Speaker 6 (09:31):
Well, I would say forty five minutes or so against
the Lakers.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
So I mean, I think for the most part that
we full go.
Speaker 6 (09:38):
Chris Tompsworzingi is I can't really make light of because
I was seeing on even on his Twitter he came
out and said that he's been dealing with an illness
and that the doctors don't know what this illness is,
but it's some unidentified Yeah, so I honestly have no idea.
Speaker 5 (09:58):
Like you said, I.
Speaker 6 (09:58):
Guess it's good that it's not doubtful, but I think
it's a true coin flip, and if for Things and
Tatum both get ruled in, I would expect this line
sort of to shift even more towards Boston. Obviously, even
without Jay and Williams, this game is in Boston. So yeah,
I think if you are taking aside, I would probably
(10:19):
say that Boston would be one of the most closing
line value. But I mean, you and I talked about
all the time outam like I never feel comfortable back
in Boston, but I do think it's probably the right
side when it.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
Comes to props Sammy no lines yet, but this feels like,
I mean, Shay's just been on like another level here, lately.
He was actually kind of quiet in his most recent
game where he only had twenty five points before they
had three straight games over forty, he had a fifty
spot in there. I mean, should you just be looking
for Shay to go off tomorrow night? For Okay?
Speaker 5 (10:53):
See?
Speaker 6 (10:55):
Yeah, I mean I just know that his lines are
going to be way too high for me to I mean,
don't get me wrong, I do think Shay goes off,
but we're probably gonna see what forty five and a half,
forty four and a half pr his points probably I
would say thirty two and a half, thirty three and
a half, and you don't want to get that high
(11:16):
and against his Boston defense is probably gonna be too high.
And there's no chance that I'm betting Shay unders without
Jalen Williams, but you are probably gonna see, yeah, just
a massive line for him. And I think, honestly, I
think the first place I would look is probably the
rebounds in assist Jalen Williams has had a massive assist
rate recently, so you would think that even more usage
(11:40):
funnels shaded way there. And on the Boston side, Yeah,
I just have no idea, like, really, how to handicap
that game, because again, I need confirmation on Tatum and Porzingis,
and the first place I'm gonna look is pro I'll
probably grab it either way because it'll avoid regardless Christoph
Porzingi first quarter points. I mean, that's been a wagon
(12:02):
this season, and I guess maybe I would probably maybe
I'd like some confirmation that he's not limited, but I
would expect to at least get his first quarter run,
So that's probably something i'd line on.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
Sammy Chowdry hanging out with us from FTN Network, has
mentioned a lot of games that we have in front
of us tomorrow, and uh, you know, a lot of
at least what project to be close ones. You know,
there's there's only one massive favorite, and that is the
Grizzlies at home against the tanking Jazz. Everything else as
of right now, barring any injury news, and there'll be
plenty of it obviously sitting inside single digits, including obviously
(12:41):
Celtics Thunder. As we talked about so much more on
the way stay with us. We've got Sammy Choudry here
with us from FTN Network taking a look at the
hump Day Wednesday slate in the NBA and just scanning
the board with some of what we've got. As far
(13:01):
as you know injury news, r J, I'm not going
to any particular order. We already talked about the Celtics
and the thunder r J. Barrett is out, Emmanuel Quickly
is out. Agbaji is doubtful as well, Sticking with the Raptors.
Terry Rozier illness probable. Alec Burk's questionable. Where else do
(13:22):
we have Jeremy Grant who cost me the FanDuel bonus
the other night when I had Klay Thompson for most
threes and then Grant, of all people, had six. He's
doubtful for tomorrow. Rudy Gobert questionable for the Jazz, Aaron
Gordon doubtful for the Nuggets. Jamal Murray is probable. Jokic
is probable. Over with Houston, Fred van Vliet probable, questionable,
(13:44):
Devin Vessel al Dama is out for tomorrow. Edie sticking
with Memphis, questionable for tomorrow with the tanking Jazz, Jordan
Clarkson questionable, Laurie Markinen is questionable, he won't play. Andre
dre And questionable with an illness for the should be
openly tanking Sixers. Also, PJ Washington questionable, Kelly Ubre questionable,
(14:09):
Tyrese Maxie is out as we know, no Paul George
or Joel embiid Caris LeVert questionable, Trey Young questionable. That's
what we know right now. I'm gonna go right to
the Sixers, who anytime that they are favored it is blasphemy.
We saw that recently. They are not tomorrow in Toronto
mentioned they are injuries. The Raptors are a three and
a half point favorite in this one, Sammy, I just
(14:32):
I wonder at what point are we full on take
the points with anyone going against Philadelphia, especially when Philly's
the road team.
Speaker 6 (14:46):
Probably not the Raptors without Quickly and Barts. But yeah,
I do think the Raptors should win in this spot,
obviously expecting a massive usage night out of Scottie Barne.
But you know, I mean this seventy six Ers team,
you know, I don't.
Speaker 5 (15:04):
Know, they've been pretty scrappy with letting the young guys go.
With Justin Edwards, he's in pretty solid.
Speaker 6 (15:10):
Obviously, Quinton Grinds has been phenomenal. So I do think
for the most part, you're gonna be better off just
fading Philadelphia no matter who they faced, Toronto without two
of their top three players probably in the spot. But
you know, I don't hate it. It's only a three
and a half point spread, so I think you could
(15:33):
maybe look at the Raptors here, but this, honestly, this
entire game is probably a stay away for.
Speaker 5 (15:38):
Me, Sammy.
Speaker 4 (15:39):
The Timberwolves have been on fire as of late. They've
won five in a row. They head to Denver tomorrow
night to take on the Nuggets. The Nuggets got a
bunch of guys who are listed as game time decisions,
including Nicole Jokic. Yeah, Denver's favored by three and a
half here has this number started to move a little bit?
Who do you like in this game? Which way you going?
Speaker 5 (15:58):
Yeah?
Speaker 6 (15:58):
Man, I mean Denver after losing that first game, just
looks phenomenal against Okac, and I think that was the
best for the best shooting performance any team that's had
against Okac this season. This one is a tough one,
you know. It's a It's a rematch too from last
season's postseason series. So I think it's gonna be a
(16:21):
great game to watch. I think I'm gonna take Denver
just with them being home, and I mean it's only
a three and a half point spread, so that's really
just getting points at home. So that's really the tiebreaker
for me. But you said it, I mean with Julius.
Speaker 5 (16:34):
Randall back in the lineup.
Speaker 6 (16:35):
I don't know what happened with Julius Randall, but he
looks like a completely different player off the injury. I
remember using sort of a shooting plump, uh, sort of
the the last handful of game before getting injured. But
I think it's been really great for Anthony Edwards. Edward
usage has taken a pretty big hit with Randall back
in the lineup, but I think more for a good thing.
(16:56):
He's been more just focused on scoring and Randall he's
had a huge assist rate and really the rebound. Dana says,
You've just been racking it up across the board.
Speaker 5 (17:05):
So I do like seeing that.
Speaker 6 (17:07):
I think Minnesota is finally coming around at the right
time entering the postseason, and I think this is a
matchup that we could potentially see in the postseason. And yeah,
I'm pretty excited about it for sure.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Am I crazy for one to take the Suns plus
four in Houston tomorrow with the way that Kevin Durant.
I know that you've got some Sons bias. I understand,
although it should be swung your put your energy the
other way. Dan, we're rooting for the son.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
We need to go eleven and five down the stretch.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Now, what does that get them too? How many wins?
Speaker 4 (17:37):
Forty one?
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Okay? Yeah, and I think I in a preseason promotion,
some fan duel like Bill Simmons Ringer promotion. I need
them at forty. So, yeah, we need to get hot here. Look,
they're probably not gonna win in Houston. I get it.
The Rockets are better, Sammy. But the way that Kevin
Durant and Devin book are both right now are going
and seemingly motivated to you know, silent the critics and
(18:00):
playing like they give a damn, especially Durant. Not to
take anything away from Booker, it's just this is usually
the point in the year with a bad team or
an underachieving team that Durant kind of checks out. He's
not done that yet. So I kind of like the
Suns with the points here and maybe even want to
sprinkle the money line right around plus one point fifty.
Speaker 6 (18:19):
No, I do like that, and that is something that
we have talked about this week is kadm He is
playing like a man on a mission. I fully believe
that he is trying to drag this Phoenix team into
the postseason. And we've seen, I mean, they've put on
some really great games against some other great teams in
the West. We saw him going to overtime against Denver
(18:42):
this past week, and yeah, I think, I mean Houston,
if they had Auvin Thompson, that would probably be a
different story.
Speaker 5 (18:48):
He does look like Fred van Vliet is gonna play.
I don't know, if you.
Speaker 6 (18:52):
Read the injury report, he's probably questionable, but he got
a full practice in, so I'm fully expecting him to play. No,
I think it's just obviously Houston did look great the
last game out with note Fred van Vliet or IM
and Thompson.
Speaker 5 (19:07):
But I just don't know.
Speaker 6 (19:08):
I feel like this team is gonna be lacking offense.
I guess until Jalen Green gets it going. He's sort
of been a slump. But I think I think I
agree with you. I would like the points with SEEDINGX
just be gonna I think Katie is gonna keep them
in it no matter what, at least go down to
the wires. So this is another game that I'm really
excited about. Again, A lot of it will have to
(19:29):
do with Van Vleet. Is he gonna be on a
minute limit, which I do expect, So yeah, I think
I'm with you. Give me the suns of the points here.
Speaker 4 (19:38):
I want to sneak in one more with you, Sammy.
The Clippers head to South Beach to take on Miami
tomorrow night. Yet the Heat have lost four in a row. Here,
they're a slight favorite tomorrow night minus one and a half.
I think there's a couple two's out there. You can
get the Clippers on the money line, even money or
even slight plus money here. Would you be looking towards
La looking towards who are you looking for in this one?
Speaker 6 (20:01):
Yeah, this one's gonna be tough. There's no chance Kawai
plays on the second night of a back to back,
and you mentioned it. I want to pack Miami just
because of back to back. Like I said, Kawhi isn't
gonna play. It's only a two and a half point spread,
so I'd probably lean with Miami, But I don't know
backing a team on a four game losing streak I
(20:23):
don't really love that, So just another game where I
don't know, I've probably just sided with the home team
gun in my head, but I really don't feel comfortable
back in Miami here.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
Same we've got like thirty seconds plenty of games. We
didn't have time to get to. What's your favorite play
on the board as exist right now?
Speaker 6 (20:43):
Oh, favorite player on the board. I didn't get a
chance to look at this. Uh you know what I
think I said. I didn't wanna, I didn't want to
back Toronto, but I think I'm gonna take three and
a half here with toront know, just because they are
at home, and at least they do have Scottie Barnes,
(21:04):
who should be the best player in the game. So yeah,
I'll go Toronto here.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Don't worry, it's not show official. That play comes around
five in the morning. That's the one we'll lock in
for you after you've done the research into the prop market.
Sammy Chowdery FTN Network. Get them on Twitter at sc
underscore FFB. Sammy always a pleasure man.
Speaker 5 (21:24):
Thanks for having me as always.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
Absolutely all right. We'll come on back with bank roll
repairs for tomorrow. Now back to the Gambler.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
With Adam Kauffman on six eighty WRKO streaming live on
the iHeartRadio app, or tell your smart speaker to play
WRKO on iHeartRadio. It's time for your bank roll repair
powered by today's collision.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Now, well, we got Northern Colorado home with authority. Good news,
that's good news. Yeah, I mean they were never really
there's never really any doubt in that one, which is
that's what you like to see. Obviously when it comes
to the other excuse me, the other show plays Western
(22:11):
Kentucky was cruising there for a little while, but now
I think we're looking at a tie game with Yeah,
three and change to go. So that's not great in
terms of covering the five. So I might not be
a jerk after all, But believe it or not, I'm
rooting for it. I just want show plays to hit.
I'm a jerk, so be it. But really, honest is
the huge jerk tonight we split on the bank roll repairs.
(22:33):
I got home Dan didn't. We still have one pending
though from Dan. We need Montana to cash a plus
one twenty that would be awesome. And of course that
group play that we added at plus one twenty nine
with Forrest Bergenovchikan. That's off to a quiet start in
terms of shots on goal for those two guys, so
hopefully they ramp that up. But let's get into it.
What do you have for tomorrow on the br.
Speaker 4 (22:54):
Yeah, it's gonna be a big day tomorrow, guys, and
what better way to get it started than with a
nice bankroll repair in the twelve thirty one pm window.
So let's go Iowa State and Arkansas, both on the
money line. Put those together plus one to eleven on DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
Here's the question. If Dan gets it, does he add
another br for the latter part of the day. It
could happen. I got a four legger for you, split
between NBA and college one NBA leg the only heavy
favorite Grizzlies at home money line against the tanking Jazz,
the three in college North Carolina against Notre Dame. I
(23:31):
know we're gonna try and trust the tar Heels Grand
Canyon against Utah and South Carolina State against Coppin State.
Those four together best odds minus one oh three on DraftKings.
So let's let's try and bring home a couple of
brs today, huh, And then a couple more tomorrow. At least.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
That was your bank roll repair coward by Today's Collision
with locations in Maldon, Chelsea, Stoneam and check them out
at Today's Collision dot com. Sweat your bets with Boston's
only nightly betting.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling to animal.
Speaker 5 (24:13):
How do you do that?
Speaker 1 (24:15):
But being good at It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman
streaming live on the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
Me a moment, subscribe to the podcast.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Back to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
I'm gonna try and move on from my frustration that
is carrying over even during the breaks as I go
back through today's slips that you honest lack of a
twentieth point by my day's standards crippling. Don't like that,
don't like that side of variants. But you know what,
(24:59):
you can try and move on because it's been a
busy college basketball day, fellas, and we got a lot
more of it coming our way here on Wednesday. And
you said it, Dan, it's it starts early, man, I
mean happy hump day. Indeed, the basketball begins before noon.
Even Richmond and Davidson A ten ten love it eleven
(25:21):
thirty am. You're gonna be uh chasing those first half
unders early on, you think, are you are you ready
to make the move?
Speaker 4 (25:29):
Yeah, I was, you know, I was thinking about it.
Then I saw our buddies over at sports gambling pod
podcast networks in the major conferences today like five and
two or something like that, the first half unders, So
I know those ACS things, those ACC games were going
way under. I mean, I know Virginia Tech and Cal
unfortunately got over because they went to double overtime, but
I think they were still under after the first overtime,
(25:51):
which was insane. I don't know about the Syracuse game
if that one hit under or not, because QS was
actually able to score today yeap, they did.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
Go on total was one forty nine and a half
and it total, I mean it went under by a lot,
so that would won twenty eight, so.
Speaker 4 (26:08):
That would be three and zero in regulation for the
ACC games full games as well. So yeah, like it
could be a sight line thing or whatever, but yeah, interesting,
a lot of a lot of big time teams starting
to play tomorrow. Of course, my Rhode Island Rams getting
right back at it against Fordham, who I saw them
in person, just wipe the floor with over the weekend.
Hopefully they can do that again as a form.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Not gonna lie to you, Dan. When I was building
out my bank row repair, I was looking at Uri
including them just on the money line, and I didn't
partially because I wonder if them covering the spread is
going to be a show play here tonight.
Speaker 4 (26:43):
It's it's I'm intrigued by the number, but they've just
been away from home, have been a nightmare this season.
I'm not a true road game. It's neutral sites, so
maybe that doesn't come into play, but I would love
to know what our uh, what our next guest has
to say about that one.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Let's bring in Rob Donaldson Rob DFB on Twitter, Professional
better and Handicapper. He is of course a partner with
Underdog as well and a regular on this program, especially
this time of year. Rob, How are you, Bud hey Man?
Speaker 7 (27:16):
Yeah, thank you for having me on. It's been a
fantastic few weeks here with all the conference tournaments and yeah,
this is my bread and butter. I love this time
of year.
Speaker 2 (27:24):
Has it been a fantastic few weeks for the bet
slips as well?
Speaker 7 (27:29):
It has, and a lot of these futures are starting
to come through with the Accopland champions, notably in the
past couple of days Troy and Bob Morris. So yeah,
definitely been pretty nice on the betting front.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
Too awesome. Keep that up obviously. Let's take the turn
to tomorrow and hang out with you here for a
couple segments. We'll build out a people's parlay. We always
enjoy getting your official show plays. But let's, you know,
start with the game that we were just talking about.
You know, Dan's Rhode Island Rams playing early two pm
Eastern at You know, it might be classified as a
(28:02):
home game ordinarily, but it is of course a neutral
site game against Fordham. Here four and a half point
favorites URI in this one of the A ten. What
do we think should we be as confident as the
betting public appears to be right now laying it with
Rhode Island because I'm looking at the splits and it's
like ninety percent handle and bets coming in on URI
(28:25):
money line and eighty plus percent on the spread.
Speaker 7 (28:31):
You know, this almost feels like a bet where you
place it on foredum because Rhode Island is one of
those teams that I feel like peaked way too early
in the season and then never really reclaimed that momentum
that they initially started out with. And I do feel
like because of the win loss record and with it
kind of feeling like, oh, you know, I can back
this team. Maybe they're a sleeper. I think they're one
(28:53):
of those teams that are going to go out pretty
early and pretty disappointing. And this has kind of been
the moo for Miller at Rhode Island over.
Speaker 5 (28:59):
The last few years.
Speaker 4 (29:01):
Breaking my heart, rob breaking my heart. All right, you're
gonna tear apart my alma mater. Here's your chance to
dump on Adams. Syracuse takes on SMU in the second
round tomorrow. The Ponies favored by what are they favored by?
Speaker 5 (29:14):
Here?
Speaker 4 (29:14):
Is this line up yet? I gotta make sure that
this line's even up before I give it out.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
I don't see it yet.
Speaker 4 (29:19):
Is it around seven? Well, our buddy, our mutual friend,
Greg Peterson has the line set at seven and a half.
So let's let's use that eight and a half for
what it's worth, all right, So what do you think
about this one?
Speaker 7 (29:31):
You know, SMU is one of those teams that I
feel like is a real front runner. Program right now
because they can beat the breaks off of some of
the teams that are inferior to them. But when they
play up in competition because of their play style, and
I don't really know what else kind of feeds into
that just from a mentality standpoint, but they can't get
over that hurdle when they do play up in the ACC.
(29:52):
But you know, against the team like Syracuse that I
kind of feel like it is just kind of biding
their time and then going to go out in the
season the way that they have been playing the entire season.
Speaker 5 (30:01):
I'm willing to lay that number.
Speaker 7 (30:03):
I don't know if it's worth a bet, but I
would certainly not want to be taking Syracuse with those points.
Speaker 2 (30:09):
Am I crazy for wanting to lay it? With Liberty
number one seed obviously against UTEP Conference USA, it's six
point thirty Eastern start tomorrow. Just I don't know that
we need to keep giving people start times. What the
hell if you're playing your schedule around it, get get nuts.
Liberty is laying seven and a half, But this is
a team that is eighteen nine and one ATS this year,
(30:32):
including four and one over its last five against a
UTEP team that is below five hundred against the spread
one in four. It's last handful.
Speaker 7 (30:41):
You know. UTEPH is actually one of those teams that
I feel I can pull out of Delaware where they
dropped their last seven games of the regular season, and
a lot of them were in heartbreaking fashion. And now
you know, we just saw it on a neutral court
against the Sam Houston team that was actually playing some
good ball down the stretch and they made it look
so And I do feel like UTEP from a talent
(31:02):
standpoint and from a coaching standpoint, when Joe Golding are
actually a top five team in the CUSA and of
course not being seated like that because of their recent losses,
and I do feel like a seven and a half
number is kind of baby for a liberty team that
has been running through this conference. I kind of feel
like UTEP is actually alive tomorrow to win on the
(31:23):
money line and covering the seven and a half points
is actually gonna be a bet for me on that side.
Speaker 4 (31:29):
So Rob, I thought Cincinnati today look the best that
they've looked in weeks, if not months, really like since
that BYU game a while ago. As they just wiped
the floor with Oki State today to start off the
Big Twelve Tournament. Now they crank things up a notch.
Tomorrow they take on Iowa State. This number opened up
at seven and a half, it's all the way up
to nine and a half in some spots. What do
(31:49):
you make of this matchup? And I guess the big
question is is is Iowa State healthy going into tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
No.
Speaker 7 (31:56):
What I've heard from Iowa State is that Keyshawn Gilbert
is probably gonna be still dealing with some injuries, but
jam Lipsey Jefferson and then Courage Jones are all going
to be healthy. Good to go Milan Montchilovich as well.
And what we know about the Big Twelve Tournament since
it's been playing in Kansas City is that this almost
acts as Hilton South for Iowa State. Their fans travel
(32:19):
in abundance because it's still like two hours, you know,
up north from them in Kansas City. And I do
feel like I was going to have a really strong contingent.
I also think they're going to be motivated to actually
win the Big Twelve Tournament yet again. And you know,
Cincinnati has been kind of a disappointment. I kind of
feel like Iowa State has a kryptonite against Cincinnati style
(32:40):
as well, and I'm definitely willing to lay it in
that matchup.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Over in the Mountain West, we've got air Force UNLV
tomorrow night, and again big spread here in this one,
double digits, UNLV favored by twelve and a half, and
almost again this will change overnight with the splits, but
this one is almost universally being bet in favor of
the Rebels, in part because air Force's offense is so bad.
(33:07):
But you dig into the against the spread numbers and candidly,
both these teams suck in that category. The specifics UNLV
is thirteen seventeen and one, air Force ten and twenty one.
When you see that, don't you almost have to take
air Force plus twelve and a half.
Speaker 7 (33:25):
It's almost like an obligatory bet on air Force at
that point, right because to your point, UNLV rarely covers
individual games, but they'll always have that one playoff spot
per year. This year it was, you know, beating Utah
State when they were ten and a half, when underdogs,
and I feel like that reset the narrative of how
good the UNLV season actually is and how good this
(33:47):
team actually is. But this is a very middling program.
You know, I would say they're below in Nevada right
now in the conference and yeah, Lan in thirteen and
a half, Land twelve and a half, that's pretty agreed.
Just do I think they win, Sure, but I don't
think they do it in an impressive fashion.
Speaker 4 (34:05):
Just scanning the board here, because there's so many great
options tomorrow, how about let's let's say are let's.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Think, let's let's keep them for another hour, right so
every case.
Speaker 4 (34:13):
Just blow right by the clock. Let's let's go to
the SEC though tomorrow, Rob Texas Vanderbilt. Vandy's favored by
two and a half. Now on some books, there's a
one one and a half left out there at DraftKings.
What do you make of this matchup in the SEC tournament?
Speaker 7 (34:27):
Well, you know this is Vanderbilt's home court, right, I mean,
it's gonna be very interesting to see how much fan
contingent is actually there, especially with that lining up with
spring break, and you know, Vanderbilt in terms of being
a basketball school has never really been that way. So
it's gonna be interesting to the ender year one of
Mark Byington with them over exceeding expectations. If they do
(34:50):
kind of have a home court takeover in this tournament,
but I'm wanting to buy in in round one against Texas.
I feel like Sexis plays a very very like a
style of basketball where they're just hucking up threes in
they're fadeaways. They kind of play that Ola style of defense.
And we've seen Vanderbilt and tournament action already this season
(35:10):
when it came to the non conslate and they played really,
really well, and they have great guards, they have a
great coach. I'm willing to buy into Vandy potentially even
making a run not only past this round but against
Texas A and M as well.
Speaker 2 (35:24):
Seaton Hall Villanova in the Big East. Before we take
a break here, look, Villanova's laying ten and a half,
eleven and a half. Probably continue to climb here. It's
a big number. If nothing else, I'd probably look towards
Seaton Hall. But what I'm curious about is the total,
very low total one twenty five and a half. Do
you look to the over in this one?
Speaker 7 (35:47):
I want it because I don't know if Seaton Hall
can hit forty. You know, they are just such an
abysmal team. They are so awful to watch. And when
you look at Villanova, not only do they match you
up well defensively? But Eric Dixon is the guy to
that team. He's a focal point. He's not exactly hitting
a range of three pointers. He's gonna be posting the
(36:08):
up all game. And so if you're looking at that
dynamic of terrible offense that can't hit shots, also wants
to play slow, and an offense on the other side,
who I think controls of the tempo of this game
and does it by scoring twos. I don't think that
even if this was set at you know, one ten,
that I would be taking the over.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
Do you like Nova to cover that? If if you
think so little of Seaton Hall's offense.
Speaker 7 (36:35):
Yeah, I think this could be a cover, and I
think Villanova could cover the line by scoring sixty points.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
It's incredible, all right, more with Rob Donalds including a
people's parlay when we come back. We've got Rob Donaldson,
professional handicapper in the college basketball streets, hanging out with us,
looking ahead to a big Wednesday. Let's go Big West
this conference tourney. You CESB against Cal Bakersfield with you
(37:03):
see Santa Barbara a four and a half point favorite
in this one. Rob certainly a team that has dominated
the rivalry eight and two against the spread over the
last ten ten wins for UCSB the Gauchos in this
series as well. And man, I'm looking for a reason
to go to the other side, and I'm having trouble
(37:24):
finding it. Do you have one?
Speaker 7 (37:27):
I do not, And Yeah, to your point is this
short of a number just feels very, very weird. And
if you do want to bet, you know, the the
the anti public side of cal State Bakersfield, I would
wait until the morning because we have been seeing these
tournament tournament lines steam up like crazy, like two points,
(37:48):
three points at times, and I do feel like that
could be one of the lines that does end up moving.
But yeah, no bet for me. But I just can't
get there with cal State Bakersfield.
Speaker 4 (37:59):
How about back to the Mountain West, guys, Rob we
got Nevada's favored by twelve and a half here against
Fresno State tomorrow, this number opened up at eleven and
a half, so it's moved a little bit. These two
teams played what twice this year? Nevada wins both of
them fairly handedly by double digits, and both do they
make it a third straight time here against Fresno.
Speaker 7 (38:19):
Well, you know, this is the corruption game, right Presno State?
Who knows we're going to get from them? And that
makes them the ultimate wild card. In the same time,
I feel like the results that they've had this season
are pretty true to form. Presno State does kind of
feel like an AAU ball team where they're not really
cohesive on either side of the ball, and a team
(38:40):
like Nevada with a lot of athletes and a lot
of talent that can sort of outdo them at their
own style, can rack up I think a pretty sizable
number here, So I would be willing to lay it
no better for me, but that would be definitely the
side I would take.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
North Carolina. Notre Dame. I mentioned earlier, I've got UNC
is part of a just on the money line, and
you know, part of the logic in that is, again
I expect them to win, but I'm not sure that
I can trust you UNC to cover this number. You know,
eight and a half against Notre Dame as it sits
right now, the against the spread numbers, you know, bear
(39:16):
it out, man. I mean, I know the tar Heels
have covered four out of their last five, but on
the year twelve nineteen and one, this is just not
a team that puts teams away. You know, let's teams
hang around, and Notre Dame, while there's been some inconsistency
there as well, they tend to hang around. So how
do you look at this one?
Speaker 7 (39:37):
Yeah, and what's really interesting about this matchup is, and
this has been an angle that I've really kind of
delved into over the past four years, but in conference
tournaments when it's a winner go on home sort of
scenario where there's no at large possibility for a certain
team on the side and they get bailed out in
the previous round, kind of like Notre Dame has got
(39:57):
bailed out against Pitt with sort of a phantom that
put him at the line zero point five seconds left.
Speaker 5 (40:03):
They actually come.
Speaker 7 (40:04):
Out and pretty good, played pretty well the next time
out because I think the jitters are gone. They're playing
with house money and eight and a half to your point,
that's a lot to lay. And also a Notre Dame
has the best guard in this game, despite RJ. Davis
being on one side, I think Marcus Burden is actually
the guy who could take over this game. And yeah,
(40:24):
I think Notre Dame is actually live in this situation.
But I think they cover the eight and a half
for sure.
Speaker 4 (40:29):
All right, how about the game right before that in
the ACC Tournament, Virginia versus Georgia Tech. I think Georgia
Tech is a slave favorite. Yeah, one and a half here,
Virginia beat them by double digits earlier this season. And guys,
Virginia actually has a thirteen game winning streak against the
Yellow Jackets here. Does that continue tomorrow?
Speaker 7 (40:49):
It's certainly one of those kind of weird scenarios because
Georgia Tech has been man just the most high variance
team in this conference. If there is a true wild
card from kind of those that seed line of the
middle tier, I do think that Georgia Tech could potentially
upset a team or two. But at the same time,
I could see them getting bounced in round one, which
(41:10):
just makes this a non bet for me. But at
the same time, I probably would take Georgia Tech just
for that high upside of them being able to run
Virginia off the floor.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
We can't hit every game, obviously, but you know, we'll
get to the people's partly shortly. What are some of
the spots that we haven't covered that's stick out to
you on the board?
Speaker 7 (41:31):
Well, let me take the first game at ten thirty
Central or you know your guys' time eleven thirty and
Richmond Davidson a ten. This is always a great tournament,
always delivers on the opening day as well, and Richmond
is one of those teams that despite the terrible looking
win loss record, this is still a very veteran heavy
lineup with a good head cosh and really good guard
(41:53):
play man. I guess a team like Davidson that doesn't
really have a crazy amount of athletic talent, I do
feel like Richmond can get up and just walk them
off the floor and you know, they're getting six and
a half points. I think Richmond covers that line. But
if you want a fun little play in the morning,
let the money line and have a good time with it.
Speaker 2 (42:13):
Uh, with the you know before we do the parlay.
You know, something we were talking about just as you
were coming on, and obviously Richmond Davidson a good example
of it. Should we invest in first half unders for
some of these early games in the you know, lead
up to the tournament and then obviously once we get
into the big dance.
Speaker 7 (42:32):
You know, I think with certain teams, especially by rich
and Davidson matchup, because you're getting that time sort of
that start time advantage of an under and you're also
getting too chaotic defensive style of teams that yes, they
could rain threes and and get those open skip pass looks,
but they crash out in the three point line kind
(42:52):
of throw you off your rhythm, both of them, Richmond
and Davidson. So yeah, I could definitely see it under there,
And even in Virginia Georgia Tech, I kind of feel
the same way right there too, Rob.
Speaker 4 (43:02):
With all these major conferences that got going today, was
there anybody that impressed you enough or someone that you
were looking at here going into today that's thinking like,
this team, if they get hot, could rally off a
couple of wins here, like someone like maybe a Syracuse Sora,
a Cincinnati or a Kansas State, any of those teams
or someone like that that you could see, you know,
going on a little run here this week.
Speaker 7 (43:24):
You know, the one team in terms of the mid
major leagues that really jumped out to me was New Chap.
I've been waiting on that and that potential to retap
ever since they took Louisville down to the wire and
non complay because they do have I think the best
host of guards in the conference, and it just hasn't
showed up down the stretch for whatever reason. And sometimes
(43:45):
once you hit that conference tournament, the season starts a
new and you start playing to the best of your
potential because it is win or go home, and your
season's done. And tomorrow they're drawing Liberty. I think there's
kind of an inflated number right there, But I've UTAP
is a team that could rally and just win that
league out.
Speaker 2 (44:03):
Right again, Rob Donaldson here with us and let us
get to the people's parlay. Now, some of the numbers,
this is a rare example. This is not the case
with the majority of our guests. In fact, it's really
only the case with Rob and Sammy who was on
with us earlier, two guys that have given us plays
of the day for stretches of time to where their
(44:26):
overall record is nowhere close to what the parlay record
is in terms of sample size. Now, Rob, overall you
are above five hundred. When it comes to your show plays,
you are nineteen and eighteen historically, so I guess technically
a little negative when it comes to the juice. But
(44:47):
in terms of the record slightly over five hundred. The
parlay is I hate to always bring up, so we
need to change it eight eight So uh, no time,
like the President, my friend, play for tomorrow.
Speaker 7 (45:00):
What do you got Yep, We're going out to Villanova
Villanova's Seaton Hall game. I just feel like Eric Dixon
is going to be on a war path, and I
do think that Villanova is going to have a really
good chance to secure NATO beIN. They're laying eleven or
eleven and a half, depending on the book that you
guys want to use for the parlay, and I think
they win this game by twenty and again, you know,
(45:21):
if Seaton Hall only scores forty points, I won't be surprised,
and I think Villanova puts them on them from the jump.
Speaker 4 (45:29):
Dan taking us to the SEC guys the night cap
tomorrow night, Let's take Georgia minus two and a half here.
I really like the way the Dog's been playing lately,
one four in a row heading into this tournament. This
team seems like they're heating up here a little bit.
I think they can beat Oklahoma by at least a
possession tomorrow. The Model agrees says this number should be
closer to four. This number is moving as well, so
(45:50):
there's only a few books left with this within a possession,
so grab that while you can. Georgia minus two and
a half.
Speaker 2 (45:56):
So I brought it up before, and I agree with
what Rob was saying. You know, we had some confirmation
bias there as well. You see Santa Barbara minus four
and a half. I think this line is gonna move overnight,
maybe not dramatically, maybe a point or two, but as
we've seen, that can make all the difference. Obviously, this
is just a poor offensive team on the other side
and CSU Bakersfield, and I don't know if it's gonna
(46:19):
be an emphatic double digit win out of you see
Santa Barbara, But I do see the gout Joe's taking
care of business winning by at least five Brian. Here
is shopped around the parlay, and there are options depending
on what book you are on over on MGM. Your
boldest option plus six thirty eight, Nova minus eleven and
a half, Georgia minus three and a half UCSB as
(46:42):
is consistent with every book right now minus four and
a half DraftKings you drop down to six to one
plus six hundred. Nova is still eleven and a half.
But Georgia you move down to two and a half,
and Caesar's is a little advantageous to the Nova side
plus five ninety six. Villanova is my mis eleven, So
you lose the hook, but Georgia you pick up a hook,
(47:04):
and because it's Caesar's, your risk of avoiding out the
whole parlay if it lands right on an exact number,
because that book is insane and does that. Georgia is
minus three. So that's two chances of potentially having your
parlay voided by an exact margin, you know. So it's
sometimes it's nice in that sense to have the hooks
(47:25):
available to you. Looks like guys, probably the meat in
the middle option DraftKings six to one Nova eleven and
a half if Rob is comfortable with that. But we
get the best number on Georgia there at two and
a half. Rob, how do you feel because or Dan,
both of you about any fluctuation in your numbers.
Speaker 7 (47:46):
Hey, you know in my book, you know, eleven eleven
and a half is the same sort of deal. I mean,
you get the element of that safety net push, but
poor parlay, well just dive into DraftKings. I am totally
fine getting the better of that number there.
Speaker 4 (48:00):
Yeah, I would like mind to be within a possession
if we can get that, so.
Speaker 2 (48:04):
Sure, six to one it is plus six hundred DraftKings. Again,
that's Nova minus eleven and a half, Georgia minus two
and a half, UCSB minus four and a half. Rob,
let's get this thing, man.
Speaker 7 (48:17):
Man, we're well over due at this point.
Speaker 2 (48:20):
Yeah, I mean, there's that, to say the very least.
All right, we'll come on back. We thank Rob of course,
who is a professional sports handicapper partners with under a Underdog.
Pardon me on Twitter at Rob DFB. Much more on
the way in our final half hour, but Rob, thank
you so much. All Right, we'll come on back, and
(48:43):
you know a little bit more college hoops, some NBA, NFL.
Schmorga is bored, stay with us. So on the day
the Tiger Woods announces that he has ruptured his achilles,
obviously not participating in the Players Championship, but when or
(49:04):
will he'd be back? We do have another big event
to look forward to. The begins here in a couple
of days, where you know, Scottie Scheffler looking for a
three pet at TPC Sawgrass, A lot of other guys,
you know, Russell Henley who won it at bay Hill,
(49:24):
Colin Morrikawa, who was the narrow loser in that tournament
last weekend. Guys that are certainly going to be perceived
to be in contention anyway here in this event. Where
are we looking? Dan and Brian, Dan, I'll start with you, So.
Speaker 4 (49:40):
I haven't dug in too much yet on the players.
I've been just so consumed by basketball. Sure right now,
my model's top play is Jason Day for this tournament
top twenty take like a plus two forty or something
like that. He does have decent success here. He's played
this event fourteen times finish in the top twenty one, two, three,
four or five six times, so okay success. He's got
(50:04):
three top twenties this season, including a tied for eighth
last weekend at Arnold Palmer. And right before that tournament
he actually reunited with his old swing Coast coach that
he's worked on and off again for like the last
thirteen years, and he actually shot a best round of
the season at sixty four, so he could be heating
up right now. So yeah, definitely, Jason Day is someone
(50:24):
that I'd be looking at here at a top twenty ticket, Brian.
I'm eyeing a Morikawa redemption arc this week, similar to
Sanders Schoffley last year. A lot of narratives around him
not closing or winning any big tournaments. It's starting to
grow Maricawa.
Speaker 3 (50:39):
Even though he has won two Majors in the past,
it's been a few years and when Shoffley he blew
a huge lead to Rory last year at quil Hollow,
next week he went out won the PGA, then won
the Open obviously a few months later. So I kind
of like Maricow in a similar spot to win with
this course, though for year year there's not a lot
of correlation, said Scotti Scheffler. It's kind of a new
(51:00):
crop that kind of rises to the top of the
leaderboard every year at TPC Sagress, So I kind of
lean more into guys who have been playing well lately
than the course history. So I like Jason Day a lot.
I think that top twenty plates. I just saw a
plus two hundred on DK so I like that and
guys like Shane Lowry, Cepstraca, maybe even Tommy Fleetwood. Guys
I'm looking to target this week.
Speaker 2 (51:21):
Yeah, if you're curious to anyone out there about what
the odds ballpark look like, I say ballpark because this
is just one book, this is FanDuel. But Scottie Scheffler
is four to one again the massive favorite compared to
the field, McElroy at eleven to one, more cowat that
redemption arc which I do like fourteen to one, Obert
(51:42):
eighteen to one, justin Thomas. Then you start to get
into the you know, twenty to one range and beyond
obviously you could even do you know, big guns against
the field is a promotion or not a promotion, but
a tab that FanDuel had as for instance, any of Scheffler, McElroy, Morikawa,
(52:04):
Oro bear to win, any of those four guys plus
one seventy eight still a plus number, and there are
various combinations of that as it builds from there. But
as Dan alluded to basketball, especially college basketball at center
stage right now, tons of games tomorrow and as we
said here beginning in less than twelve hours, why bother sleeping,
(52:28):
Let's just wait. Thanks to our guests again for Dan,
Bryan and Madam, We'll see you.
Speaker 1 (52:36):
You've been listening to the Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
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betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
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Speaker 2 (52:52):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (52:53):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
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Locks, Leans and everything in between.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
It says here we should work in teams. It wants
to be my sponnor. I don't think you should be
doing too much gambling tonight, Alan gambling. There s anything
about gambling.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
It's not gambling when you know you're gonna win.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Now back to Boston's only nightly betting show, The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman. Listen on the iHeartRadio app or you're
smart speaker.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Let's get into some NBA four games today almost fully concluded,
light slate, much bigger tomorrow, including Boston, Oklahoma City. But
before we get to our next guest, our good friend
Sammy Chowdrick, just to vent for a moment, we should
have a live people's parlay right now. We gave out
(00:55):
collectively Western Kentucky minus four and a half. That's up
by four about twelve minutes to go as I see it,
Northern Colorado minus three and a half. They're up by
like fifteen midway through the second half. In the Milwaukee
Bucks minus two and a half, the Bucks were down
or even much of this game never had a commanding
(01:18):
lead or anything like that because of late free throws
after taking a lead managed to take a three point lead. Again,
we had a minus two and a half, managed to
take a three point lead with like I don't know,
ten to fifteen seconds left, maybe less pacers have an
(01:43):
opportunity obviously to try and tie force overtime. And I
will admit I'm sitting there watching this trying to thread
a very tight needle because in my biggest builder of
the night, I had Yannis at twenty points. Let me
tell you a little bit about Giannis's night. Well, every
(02:07):
projection that you could find probably had him at twenty
five north of thirty points. For whatever reason, Jannis decides
he's not gonna be aggressive in this game, goes nine
of thirteen from the field, one of three from the
free throw line, lands at nineteen points, heading into this
(02:28):
moment where Tyrese Haliburton, as he's falling toward the crowd
in the corner, launches a three with about four seconds left,
It drops and he gets fouled. Who fouls him? Yannis?
Yannis fouls him, so not only does Janis, who then
(02:51):
his time expires, launches a three at the buzzer, trying
to give the Bucks a win. Wouldn't give us the cover,
but tries to give him the win and would have
put me over twenty points. He misses, so he takes
a final shot after a pedestrian fourth quarter reaches. Wasn't
even being aggressive, completely deferential. He did finish with seven assists,
(03:13):
but he's just hand the ball off, hand the ball off,
give other people their opportunities. Credit the Pacers, I guess
somewhat for the way they were defending him, but he
wasn't even trying to attack the basket. So he goes
nine to fourteen again, misses two free throws, lands at
nineteen points, and not only does he not get me
the twenty to keep the builder alive, which I know,
(03:33):
I'm certain with every fiber of my being is going
to cash except for this one leg. He's the reason
that we don't even get overtime to try and get
the cover for the show play until I try and
get him to twenty points. He doesn't get to twenty,
and then he has the foul on Heliburton to give
him the three point shot and one, and the Pacers
(03:53):
end up winning by one. At least we could have
split the difference. Play some tighter defense. Get your hands up,
don't touch the guy, he misses the three and we
get the cover and the People's Parlay is live, but No,
doesn't go down that way. Instead, Giannis doubly bends me
over and we wind up losing across the board. So
it sucks. The official show plays right now. Are you know?
(04:17):
We're chasing even because you know, People's Parlay is dead,
My play is dead. Dance bank Roll Repair, one of
them is dead. He did give out two. My bank
Roll Repair somehow, by the Heaven's above ends up cashing
because we get Cleveland on the money line, who was
down by eighteen, coming back to win that thing virtually
(04:38):
at the buzzer. We're chasing a group play that we
just gave out. You know, the other two legs of
the People's Parlay were getting after Sammy Chowdry, who's about
to join us from ft on Network, gave us a
loser tonight. But I can't even come after him because
all the guy does is of us winners. It never
happens that he gives us losers. It just happened to
happen tonight. And of course we need Montana to cash
(04:59):
Dan's other at plus one twenty. But this could be
a solid even profitable night or maybe it's a crappy night.
But I'm feeling crappy and I want to throw up.
Speaker 4 (05:09):
Yeah, that was insane shot by Halliburton. It reminded me
of Jalen Brown Game one of the Eastern Conference Finals
last year against against Indiana. So they got their own
little corner three there tonight and yeah, just insane. It's been.
It's kind of been just one of those kind of
days here on the gambling streets. Just just awful.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
I don't I don't even know what my blood pressure
is right now. Sammy Chowdrey joins us from FTN Network
analyst over there on Twitter at sc Underscore FFB in
the Shadows, a daily contributor to this show because he
gives you Chowdrey's choice on a daily basis his absolute
favorite bet across the board again, Will he take a
loser today? Sure? But you know what's Sammy's all time
(06:00):
record is on the show, dating back to even before
we started getting his play the day Sammy is going
to be with tonight twenty four nine and three. I
don't think we're coming after Sammy in any sort of
a negative way. Sammy, how are you man?
Speaker 5 (06:16):
Good?
Speaker 6 (06:16):
Yeah, man, it makes me sick because like the initial play,
which like for those of you guys don't know, I'm
probably sending him my plate like what like four or.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Five, five in the morning.
Speaker 6 (06:26):
Yeah, yeah, And it's like the initial play was actually
I'm in mobiley points and I was sort of going
back and forth and last minute pivoted to Bogdanovich and
even as we were talking, he misses a wide open
three that what to cut the score to one potential
chance of ot misses it, and then it's said, but yeah,
(06:48):
it happens, but we'll get after it tomorrow morning, no
doubt about it.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
I have to remind myself when you have days like this,
because all gamblers have days like this obviously, where it's
just you're on the wrong side of variants like I
would have played Yanna's twenty plus points tonight in a builder,
you know, a hundred times out of one hundred. The
guy has hit that mark, like, you know, ninety five
percent of games this season, and you know, I think
one time when he missed he was injured, you know,
(07:15):
so his minutes were limited like that. He's he's having
an incredible year like Yana's twenty points for him. You know,
we're not talking about like, you know, is Malik Beasley
gonna get there? Like Yianni's is Like that's that's virtually
a free square. Most nights, I would play it over
and over and over again. But I do need to
remind myself that I won't get into the specifics. But
(07:35):
I was in a massive hole in January that I
have managed to knock on wood, climb out of and
turn myself green, you know, through just the right side
of variants. So like, this is gambling, this is this
is what happens obviously, and and all we can do
is try and you know, wash it away and move
to tomorrow. So that in mind, we got a much
(07:56):
bigger slate tomorrow, Sammy, including here in Boston, sell Diics thunder.
Now it's it's not you know, we would love to
look at this and say, hey, potential NBA Finals preview
and and maybe it will be, but it's not going
to quite look the part because uh not, neither team
is fully healthy from the Celtics perspective. Uh as it
(08:20):
stands right now, probably uh A, pardon me, you have
Jaylen Brown probable, Chris Stamps porzingis questionable. Not doubtful. Questionable.
He's been Yeah, he's been doubtful quite a bit lately.
Jason Tatum is questionable. Those are the guys on the
injury report. Everyone else is expected to be out there, obviously,
but on the OKC side, Jalen Williams is not going
(08:42):
to be there. Who is a you know, a massive factor.
He's not Jay, he's not SGA, he's not the MVP,
but he is a huge complimentary piece for that team.
So when we see Boston sitting, you know, I'm looking
at minus four. Let's see if that's that's consistent. We've
got minus four four and a half might be a
rogue three and a half on ESPN. If the numbers
(09:03):
in front of me are right, how do you bet
this game?
Speaker 5 (09:08):
Yeah, this one's really tough. Number one.
Speaker 6 (09:11):
We're gonna need to see. I would say probably the
most important Q tag gives Jason Tatum. And it did
seem like, you know, last game was more of a
maintenance they I know a lot of people were getting
ahead of that and backing Jalen Brown with the assumption
that Tatum was gonna miss that game.
Speaker 5 (09:29):
Coming off of what he played like.
Speaker 6 (09:31):
Well, I would say forty five minutes or so against
the Lakers.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
So I mean, I think for the most part that
we full go.
Speaker 6 (09:38):
Chris Tompsworzingi is I can't really make light of because
I was seeing on even on his Twitter he came
out and said that he's been dealing with an illness
and that the doctors don't know what this illness is,
but it's some unidentified Yeah, so I honestly have no idea.
Speaker 5 (09:58):
Like you said, I.
Speaker 6 (09:58):
Guess it's good that it's not doubtful, but I think
it's a true coin flip, and if for Things and
Tatum both get ruled in, I would expect this line
sort of to shift even more towards Boston. Obviously, even
without Jay and Williams, this game is in Boston. So yeah,
I think if you are taking aside, I would probably
(10:19):
say that Boston would be one of the most closing
line value. But I mean, you and I talked about
all the time outam like I never feel comfortable back
in Boston, but I do think it's probably the right
side when it.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
Comes to props Sammy no lines yet, but this feels like,
I mean, Shay's just been on like another level here, lately.
He was actually kind of quiet in his most recent
game where he only had twenty five points before they
had three straight games over forty, he had a fifty
spot in there. I mean, should you just be looking
for Shay to go off tomorrow night? For Okay?
Speaker 5 (10:53):
See?
Speaker 6 (10:55):
Yeah, I mean I just know that his lines are
going to be way too high for me to I mean,
don't get me wrong, I do think Shay goes off,
but we're probably gonna see what forty five and a half,
forty four and a half pr his points probably I
would say thirty two and a half, thirty three and
a half, and you don't want to get that high
(11:16):
and against his Boston defense is probably gonna be too high.
And there's no chance that I'm betting Shay unders without
Jalen Williams, but you are probably gonna see, yeah, just
a massive line for him. And I think, honestly, I
think the first place I would look is probably the
rebounds in assist Jalen Williams has had a massive assist
rate recently, so you would think that even more usage
(11:40):
funnels shaded way there. And on the Boston side, Yeah,
I just have no idea, like, really, how to handicap
that game, because again, I need confirmation on Tatum and Porzingis,
and the first place I'm gonna look is pro I'll
probably grab it either way because it'll avoid regardless Christoph
Porzingi first quarter points. I mean, that's been a wagon
(12:02):
this season, and I guess maybe I would probably maybe
I'd like some confirmation that he's not limited, but I
would expect to at least get his first quarter run,
So that's probably something i'd line on.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
Sammy Chowdry hanging out with us from FTN Network, has
mentioned a lot of games that we have in front
of us tomorrow, and uh, you know, a lot of
at least what project to be close ones. You know,
there's there's only one massive favorite, and that is the
Grizzlies at home against the tanking Jazz. Everything else as
of right now, barring any injury news, and there'll be
plenty of it obviously sitting inside single digits, including obviously
(12:41):
Celtics Thunder. As we talked about so much more on
the way stay with us. We've got Sammy Choudry here
with us from FTN Network taking a look at the
hump Day Wednesday slate in the NBA and just scanning
the board with some of what we've got. As far
(13:01):
as you know injury news, r J, I'm not going
to any particular order. We already talked about the Celtics
and the thunder r J. Barrett is out, Emmanuel Quickly
is out. Agbaji is doubtful as well, Sticking with the Raptors.
Terry Rozier illness probable. Alec Burk's questionable. Where else do
(13:22):
we have Jeremy Grant who cost me the FanDuel bonus
the other night when I had Klay Thompson for most
threes and then Grant, of all people, had six. He's
doubtful for tomorrow. Rudy Gobert questionable for the Jazz, Aaron
Gordon doubtful for the Nuggets. Jamal Murray is probable. Jokic
is probable. Over with Houston, Fred van Vliet probable, questionable,
(13:44):
Devin Vessel al Dama is out for tomorrow. Edie sticking
with Memphis, questionable for tomorrow with the tanking Jazz, Jordan
Clarkson questionable, Laurie Markinen is questionable, he won't play. Andre
dre And questionable with an illness for the should be
openly tanking Sixers. Also, PJ Washington questionable, Kelly Ubre questionable,
(14:09):
Tyrese Maxie is out as we know, no Paul George
or Joel embiid Caris LeVert questionable, Trey Young questionable. That's
what we know right now. I'm gonna go right to
the Sixers, who anytime that they are favored it is blasphemy.
We saw that recently. They are not tomorrow in Toronto
mentioned they are injuries. The Raptors are a three and
a half point favorite in this one, Sammy, I just
(14:32):
I wonder at what point are we full on take
the points with anyone going against Philadelphia, especially when Philly's
the road team.
Speaker 6 (14:46):
Probably not the Raptors without Quickly and Barts. But yeah,
I do think the Raptors should win in this spot,
obviously expecting a massive usage night out of Scottie Barne.
But you know, I mean this seventy six Ers team,
you know, I don't.
Speaker 5 (15:04):
Know, they've been pretty scrappy with letting the young guys go.
With Justin Edwards, he's in pretty solid.
Speaker 6 (15:10):
Obviously, Quinton Grinds has been phenomenal. So I do think
for the most part, you're gonna be better off just
fading Philadelphia no matter who they faced, Toronto without two
of their top three players probably in the spot. But
you know, I don't hate it. It's only a three
and a half point spread, so I think you could
(15:33):
maybe look at the Raptors here, but this, honestly, this
entire game is probably a stay away for.
Speaker 5 (15:38):
Me, Sammy.
Speaker 4 (15:39):
The Timberwolves have been on fire as of late. They've
won five in a row. They head to Denver tomorrow
night to take on the Nuggets. The Nuggets got a
bunch of guys who are listed as game time decisions,
including Nicole Jokic. Yeah, Denver's favored by three and a
half here has this number started to move a little bit?
Who do you like in this game? Which way you going?
Speaker 5 (15:58):
Yeah?
Speaker 6 (15:58):
Man, I mean Denver after losing that first game, just
looks phenomenal against Okac, and I think that was the
best for the best shooting performance any team that's had
against Okac this season. This one is a tough one,
you know. It's a It's a rematch too from last
season's postseason series. So I think it's gonna be a
(16:21):
great game to watch. I think I'm gonna take Denver
just with them being home, and I mean it's only
a three and a half point spread, so that's really
just getting points at home. So that's really the tiebreaker
for me. But you said it, I mean with Julius.
Speaker 5 (16:34):
Randall back in the lineup.
Speaker 6 (16:35):
I don't know what happened with Julius Randall, but he
looks like a completely different player off the injury. I
remember using sort of a shooting plump, uh, sort of
the the last handful of game before getting injured. But
I think it's been really great for Anthony Edwards. Edward
usage has taken a pretty big hit with Randall back
in the lineup, but I think more for a good thing.
(16:56):
He's been more just focused on scoring and Randall he's
had a huge assist rate and really the rebound. Dana says,
You've just been racking it up across the board.
Speaker 5 (17:05):
So I do like seeing that.
Speaker 6 (17:07):
I think Minnesota is finally coming around at the right
time entering the postseason, and I think this is a
matchup that we could potentially see in the postseason. And yeah,
I'm pretty excited about it for sure.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Am I crazy for one to take the Suns plus
four in Houston tomorrow with the way that Kevin Durant.
I know that you've got some Sons bias. I understand,
although it should be swung your put your energy the
other way. Dan, we're rooting for the son.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
We need to go eleven and five down the stretch.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Now, what does that get them too? How many wins?
Speaker 4 (17:37):
Forty one?
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Okay? Yeah, and I think I in a preseason promotion,
some fan duel like Bill Simmons Ringer promotion. I need
them at forty. So, yeah, we need to get hot here. Look,
they're probably not gonna win in Houston. I get it.
The Rockets are better, Sammy. But the way that Kevin
Durant and Devin book are both right now are going
and seemingly motivated to you know, silent the critics and
(18:00):
playing like they give a damn, especially Durant. Not to
take anything away from Booker, it's just this is usually
the point in the year with a bad team or
an underachieving team that Durant kind of checks out. He's
not done that yet. So I kind of like the
Suns with the points here and maybe even want to
sprinkle the money line right around plus one point fifty.
Speaker 6 (18:19):
No, I do like that, and that is something that
we have talked about this week is kadm He is
playing like a man on a mission. I fully believe
that he is trying to drag this Phoenix team into
the postseason. And we've seen, I mean, they've put on
some really great games against some other great teams in
the West. We saw him going to overtime against Denver
(18:42):
this past week, and yeah, I think, I mean Houston,
if they had Auvin Thompson, that would probably be a
different story.
Speaker 5 (18:48):
He does look like Fred van Vliet is gonna play.
I don't know, if you.
Speaker 6 (18:52):
Read the injury report, he's probably questionable, but he got
a full practice in, so I'm fully expecting him to play. No,
I think it's just obviously Houston did look great the
last game out with note Fred van Vliet or IM
and Thompson.
Speaker 5 (19:07):
But I just don't know.
Speaker 6 (19:08):
I feel like this team is gonna be lacking offense.
I guess until Jalen Green gets it going. He's sort
of been a slump. But I think I think I
agree with you. I would like the points with SEEDINGX
just be gonna I think Katie is gonna keep them
in it no matter what, at least go down to
the wires. So this is another game that I'm really
excited about. Again, A lot of it will have to
(19:29):
do with Van Vleet. Is he gonna be on a
minute limit, which I do expect, So yeah, I think
I'm with you. Give me the suns of the points here.
Speaker 4 (19:38):
I want to sneak in one more with you, Sammy.
The Clippers head to South Beach to take on Miami
tomorrow night. Yet the Heat have lost four in a row. Here,
they're a slight favorite tomorrow night minus one and a half.
I think there's a couple two's out there. You can
get the Clippers on the money line, even money or
even slight plus money here. Would you be looking towards
La looking towards who are you looking for in this one?
Speaker 6 (20:01):
Yeah, this one's gonna be tough. There's no chance Kawai
plays on the second night of a back to back,
and you mentioned it. I want to pack Miami just
because of back to back. Like I said, Kawhi isn't
gonna play. It's only a two and a half point spread,
so I'd probably lean with Miami, But I don't know
backing a team on a four game losing streak I
(20:23):
don't really love that, So just another game where I
don't know, I've probably just sided with the home team
gun in my head, but I really don't feel comfortable
back in Miami here.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
Same we've got like thirty seconds plenty of games. We
didn't have time to get to. What's your favorite play
on the board as exist right now?
Speaker 6 (20:43):
Oh, favorite player on the board. I didn't get a
chance to look at this. Uh you know what I
think I said. I didn't wanna, I didn't want to
back Toronto, but I think I'm gonna take three and
a half here with toront know, just because they are
at home, and at least they do have Scottie Barnes,
(21:04):
who should be the best player in the game. So yeah,
I'll go Toronto here.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Don't worry, it's not show official. That play comes around
five in the morning. That's the one we'll lock in
for you after you've done the research into the prop market.
Sammy Chowdery FTN Network. Get them on Twitter at sc
underscore FFB. Sammy always a pleasure man.
Speaker 5 (21:24):
Thanks for having me as always.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
Absolutely all right. We'll come on back with bank roll
repairs for tomorrow. Now back to the Gambler.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
With Adam Kauffman on six eighty WRKO streaming live on
the iHeartRadio app, or tell your smart speaker to play
WRKO on iHeartRadio. It's time for your bank roll repair
powered by today's collision.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Now, well, we got Northern Colorado home with authority. Good news,
that's good news. Yeah, I mean they were never really
there's never really any doubt in that one, which is
that's what you like to see. Obviously when it comes
to the other excuse me, the other show plays Western
(22:11):
Kentucky was cruising there for a little while, but now
I think we're looking at a tie game with Yeah,
three and change to go. So that's not great in
terms of covering the five. So I might not be
a jerk after all, But believe it or not, I'm
rooting for it. I just want show plays to hit.
I'm a jerk, so be it. But really, honest is
the huge jerk tonight we split on the bank roll repairs.
(22:33):
I got home Dan didn't. We still have one pending
though from Dan. We need Montana to cash a plus
one twenty that would be awesome. And of course that
group play that we added at plus one twenty nine
with Forrest Bergenovchikan. That's off to a quiet start in
terms of shots on goal for those two guys, so
hopefully they ramp that up. But let's get into it.
What do you have for tomorrow on the br.
Speaker 4 (22:54):
Yeah, it's gonna be a big day tomorrow, guys, and
what better way to get it started than with a
nice bankroll repair in the twelve thirty one pm window.
So let's go Iowa State and Arkansas, both on the
money line. Put those together plus one to eleven on DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
Here's the question. If Dan gets it, does he add
another br for the latter part of the day. It
could happen. I got a four legger for you, split
between NBA and college one NBA leg the only heavy
favorite Grizzlies at home money line against the tanking Jazz,
the three in college North Carolina against Notre Dame. I
(23:31):
know we're gonna try and trust the tar Heels Grand
Canyon against Utah and South Carolina State against Coppin State.
Those four together best odds minus one oh three on DraftKings.
So let's let's try and bring home a couple of
brs today, huh, And then a couple more tomorrow. At least.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
That was your bank roll repair coward by Today's Collision
with locations in Maldon, Chelsea, Stoneam and check them out
at Today's Collision dot com. Sweat your bets with Boston's
only nightly betting.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling to animal.
Speaker 5 (24:13):
How do you do that?
Speaker 1 (24:15):
But being good at It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman
streaming live on the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
Me a moment, subscribe to the podcast.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Back to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
I'm gonna try and move on from my frustration that
is carrying over even during the breaks as I go
back through today's slips that you honest lack of a
twentieth point by my day's standards crippling. Don't like that,
don't like that side of variants. But you know what,
(24:59):
you can try and move on because it's been a
busy college basketball day, fellas, and we got a lot
more of it coming our way here on Wednesday. And
you said it, Dan, it's it starts early, man, I
mean happy hump day. Indeed, the basketball begins before noon.
Even Richmond and Davidson A ten ten love it eleven
(25:21):
thirty am. You're gonna be uh chasing those first half
unders early on, you think, are you are you ready
to make the move?
Speaker 4 (25:29):
Yeah, I was, you know, I was thinking about it.
Then I saw our buddies over at sports gambling pod
podcast networks in the major conferences today like five and
two or something like that, the first half unders, So
I know those ACS things, those ACC games were going
way under. I mean, I know Virginia Tech and Cal
unfortunately got over because they went to double overtime, but
I think they were still under after the first overtime,
(25:51):
which was insane. I don't know about the Syracuse game
if that one hit under or not, because QS was
actually able to score today yeap, they did.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
Go on total was one forty nine and a half
and it total, I mean it went under by a lot,
so that would won twenty eight, so.
Speaker 4 (26:08):
That would be three and zero in regulation for the
ACC games full games as well. So yeah, like it
could be a sight line thing or whatever, but yeah, interesting,
a lot of a lot of big time teams starting
to play tomorrow. Of course, my Rhode Island Rams getting
right back at it against Fordham, who I saw them
in person, just wipe the floor with over the weekend.
Hopefully they can do that again as a form.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Not gonna lie to you, Dan. When I was building
out my bank row repair, I was looking at Uri
including them just on the money line, and I didn't
partially because I wonder if them covering the spread is
going to be a show play here tonight.
Speaker 4 (26:43):
It's it's I'm intrigued by the number, but they've just
been away from home, have been a nightmare this season.
I'm not a true road game. It's neutral sites, so
maybe that doesn't come into play, but I would love
to know what our uh, what our next guest has
to say about that one.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Let's bring in Rob Donaldson Rob DFB on Twitter, Professional
better and Handicapper. He is of course a partner with
Underdog as well and a regular on this program, especially
this time of year. Rob, How are you, Bud hey Man?
Speaker 7 (27:16):
Yeah, thank you for having me on. It's been a
fantastic few weeks here with all the conference tournaments and yeah,
this is my bread and butter. I love this time
of year.
Speaker 2 (27:24):
Has it been a fantastic few weeks for the bet
slips as well?
Speaker 7 (27:29):
It has, and a lot of these futures are starting
to come through with the Accopland champions, notably in the
past couple of days Troy and Bob Morris. So yeah,
definitely been pretty nice on the betting front.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
Too awesome. Keep that up obviously. Let's take the turn
to tomorrow and hang out with you here for a
couple segments. We'll build out a people's parlay. We always
enjoy getting your official show plays. But let's, you know,
start with the game that we were just talking about.
You know, Dan's Rhode Island Rams playing early two pm
Eastern at You know, it might be classified as a
(28:02):
home game ordinarily, but it is of course a neutral
site game against Fordham. Here four and a half point
favorites URI in this one of the A ten. What
do we think should we be as confident as the
betting public appears to be right now laying it with
Rhode Island because I'm looking at the splits and it's
like ninety percent handle and bets coming in on URI
(28:25):
money line and eighty plus percent on the spread.
Speaker 7 (28:31):
You know, this almost feels like a bet where you
place it on foredum because Rhode Island is one of
those teams that I feel like peaked way too early
in the season and then never really reclaimed that momentum
that they initially started out with. And I do feel
like because of the win loss record and with it
kind of feeling like, oh, you know, I can back
this team. Maybe they're a sleeper. I think they're one
(28:53):
of those teams that are going to go out pretty
early and pretty disappointing. And this has kind of been
the moo for Miller at Rhode Island over.
Speaker 5 (28:59):
The last few years.
Speaker 4 (29:01):
Breaking my heart, rob breaking my heart. All right, you're
gonna tear apart my alma mater. Here's your chance to
dump on Adams. Syracuse takes on SMU in the second
round tomorrow. The Ponies favored by what are they favored by?
Speaker 5 (29:14):
Here?
Speaker 4 (29:14):
Is this line up yet? I gotta make sure that
this line's even up before I give it out.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
I don't see it yet.
Speaker 4 (29:19):
Is it around seven? Well, our buddy, our mutual friend,
Greg Peterson has the line set at seven and a half.
So let's let's use that eight and a half for
what it's worth, all right, So what do you think
about this one?
Speaker 7 (29:31):
You know, SMU is one of those teams that I
feel like is a real front runner. Program right now
because they can beat the breaks off of some of
the teams that are inferior to them. But when they
play up in competition because of their play style, and
I don't really know what else kind of feeds into
that just from a mentality standpoint, but they can't get
over that hurdle when they do play up in the ACC.
(29:52):
But you know, against the team like Syracuse that I
kind of feel like it is just kind of biding
their time and then going to go out in the
season the way that they have been playing the entire season.
Speaker 5 (30:01):
I'm willing to lay that number.
Speaker 7 (30:03):
I don't know if it's worth a bet, but I
would certainly not want to be taking Syracuse with those points.
Speaker 2 (30:09):
Am I crazy for wanting to lay it? With Liberty
number one seed obviously against UTEP Conference USA, it's six
point thirty Eastern start tomorrow. Just I don't know that
we need to keep giving people start times. What the
hell if you're playing your schedule around it, get get nuts.
Liberty is laying seven and a half, But this is
a team that is eighteen nine and one ATS this year,
(30:32):
including four and one over its last five against a
UTEP team that is below five hundred against the spread
one in four. It's last handful.
Speaker 7 (30:41):
You know. UTEPH is actually one of those teams that
I feel I can pull out of Delaware where they
dropped their last seven games of the regular season, and
a lot of them were in heartbreaking fashion. And now
you know, we just saw it on a neutral court
against the Sam Houston team that was actually playing some
good ball down the stretch and they made it look
so And I do feel like UTEP from a talent
(31:02):
standpoint and from a coaching standpoint, when Joe Golding are
actually a top five team in the CUSA and of
course not being seated like that because of their recent losses,
and I do feel like a seven and a half
number is kind of baby for a liberty team that
has been running through this conference. I kind of feel
like UTEP is actually alive tomorrow to win on the
(31:23):
money line and covering the seven and a half points
is actually gonna be a bet for me on that side.
Speaker 4 (31:29):
So Rob, I thought Cincinnati today look the best that
they've looked in weeks, if not months, really like since
that BYU game a while ago. As they just wiped
the floor with Oki State today to start off the
Big Twelve Tournament. Now they crank things up a notch.
Tomorrow they take on Iowa State. This number opened up
at seven and a half, it's all the way up
to nine and a half in some spots. What do
(31:49):
you make of this matchup? And I guess the big
question is is is Iowa State healthy going into tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
No.
Speaker 7 (31:56):
What I've heard from Iowa State is that Keyshawn Gilbert
is probably gonna be still dealing with some injuries, but
jam Lipsey Jefferson and then Courage Jones are all going
to be healthy. Good to go Milan Montchilovich as well.
And what we know about the Big Twelve Tournament since
it's been playing in Kansas City is that this almost
acts as Hilton South for Iowa State. Their fans travel
(32:19):
in abundance because it's still like two hours, you know,
up north from them in Kansas City. And I do
feel like I was going to have a really strong contingent.
I also think they're going to be motivated to actually
win the Big Twelve Tournament yet again. And you know,
Cincinnati has been kind of a disappointment. I kind of
feel like Iowa State has a kryptonite against Cincinnati style
(32:40):
as well, and I'm definitely willing to lay it in
that matchup.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Over in the Mountain West, we've got air Force UNLV
tomorrow night, and again big spread here in this one,
double digits, UNLV favored by twelve and a half, and
almost again this will change overnight with the splits, but
this one is almost universally being bet in favor of
the Rebels, in part because air Force's offense is so bad.
(33:07):
But you dig into the against the spread numbers and candidly,
both these teams suck in that category. The specifics UNLV
is thirteen seventeen and one, air Force ten and twenty one.
When you see that, don't you almost have to take
air Force plus twelve and a half.
Speaker 7 (33:25):
It's almost like an obligatory bet on air Force at
that point, right because to your point, UNLV rarely covers
individual games, but they'll always have that one playoff spot
per year. This year it was, you know, beating Utah
State when they were ten and a half, when underdogs,
and I feel like that reset the narrative of how
good the UNLV season actually is and how good this
(33:47):
team actually is. But this is a very middling program.
You know, I would say they're below in Nevada right
now in the conference and yeah, Lan in thirteen and
a half, Land twelve and a half, that's pretty agreed.
Just do I think they win, Sure, but I don't
think they do it in an impressive fashion.
Speaker 4 (34:05):
Just scanning the board here, because there's so many great
options tomorrow, how about let's let's say are let's.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Think, let's let's keep them for another hour, right so
every case.
Speaker 4 (34:13):
Just blow right by the clock. Let's let's go to
the SEC though tomorrow, Rob Texas Vanderbilt. Vandy's favored by
two and a half. Now on some books, there's a
one one and a half left out there at DraftKings.
What do you make of this matchup in the SEC tournament?
Speaker 7 (34:27):
Well, you know this is Vanderbilt's home court, right, I mean,
it's gonna be very interesting to see how much fan
contingent is actually there, especially with that lining up with
spring break, and you know, Vanderbilt in terms of being
a basketball school has never really been that way. So
it's gonna be interesting to the ender year one of
Mark Byington with them over exceeding expectations. If they do
(34:50):
kind of have a home court takeover in this tournament,
but I'm wanting to buy in in round one against Texas.
I feel like Sexis plays a very very like a
style of basketball where they're just hucking up threes in
they're fadeaways. They kind of play that Ola style of defense.
And we've seen Vanderbilt and tournament action already this season
(35:10):
when it came to the non conslate and they played really,
really well, and they have great guards, they have a
great coach. I'm willing to buy into Vandy potentially even
making a run not only past this round but against
Texas A and M as well.
Speaker 2 (35:24):
Seaton Hall Villanova in the Big East. Before we take
a break here, look, Villanova's laying ten and a half,
eleven and a half. Probably continue to climb here. It's
a big number. If nothing else, I'd probably look towards
Seaton Hall. But what I'm curious about is the total,
very low total one twenty five and a half. Do
you look to the over in this one?
Speaker 7 (35:47):
I want it because I don't know if Seaton Hall
can hit forty. You know, they are just such an
abysmal team. They are so awful to watch. And when
you look at Villanova, not only do they match you
up well defensively? But Eric Dixon is the guy to
that team. He's a focal point. He's not exactly hitting
a range of three pointers. He's gonna be posting the
(36:08):
up all game. And so if you're looking at that
dynamic of terrible offense that can't hit shots, also wants
to play slow, and an offense on the other side,
who I think controls of the tempo of this game
and does it by scoring twos. I don't think that
even if this was set at you know, one ten,
that I would be taking the over.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
Do you like Nova to cover that? If if you
think so little of Seaton Hall's offense.
Speaker 7 (36:35):
Yeah, I think this could be a cover, and I
think Villanova could cover the line by scoring sixty points.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
It's incredible, all right, more with Rob Donalds including a
people's parlay when we come back. We've got Rob Donaldson,
professional handicapper in the college basketball streets, hanging out with us,
looking ahead to a big Wednesday. Let's go Big West
this conference tourney. You CESB against Cal Bakersfield with you
(37:03):
see Santa Barbara a four and a half point favorite
in this one. Rob certainly a team that has dominated
the rivalry eight and two against the spread over the
last ten ten wins for UCSB the Gauchos in this
series as well. And man, I'm looking for a reason
to go to the other side, and I'm having trouble
(37:24):
finding it. Do you have one?
Speaker 7 (37:27):
I do not, And Yeah, to your point is this
short of a number just feels very, very weird. And
if you do want to bet, you know, the the
the anti public side of cal State Bakersfield, I would
wait until the morning because we have been seeing these
tournament tournament lines steam up like crazy, like two points,
(37:48):
three points at times, and I do feel like that
could be one of the lines that does end up moving.
But yeah, no bet for me. But I just can't
get there with cal State Bakersfield.
Speaker 4 (37:59):
How about back to the Mountain West, guys, Rob we
got Nevada's favored by twelve and a half here against
Fresno State tomorrow, this number opened up at eleven and
a half, so it's moved a little bit. These two
teams played what twice this year? Nevada wins both of
them fairly handedly by double digits, and both do they
make it a third straight time here against Fresno.
Speaker 7 (38:19):
Well, you know, this is the corruption game, right Presno State?
Who knows we're going to get from them? And that
makes them the ultimate wild card. In the same time,
I feel like the results that they've had this season
are pretty true to form. Presno State does kind of
feel like an AAU ball team where they're not really
cohesive on either side of the ball, and a team
(38:40):
like Nevada with a lot of athletes and a lot
of talent that can sort of outdo them at their
own style, can rack up I think a pretty sizable
number here, So I would be willing to lay it
no better for me, but that would be definitely the
side I would take.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
North Carolina. Notre Dame. I mentioned earlier, I've got UNC
is part of a just on the money line, and
you know, part of the logic in that is, again
I expect them to win, but I'm not sure that
I can trust you UNC to cover this number. You know,
eight and a half against Notre Dame as it sits
right now, the against the spread numbers, you know, bear
(39:16):
it out, man. I mean, I know the tar Heels
have covered four out of their last five, but on
the year twelve nineteen and one, this is just not
a team that puts teams away. You know, let's teams
hang around, and Notre Dame, while there's been some inconsistency
there as well, they tend to hang around. So how
do you look at this one?
Speaker 7 (39:37):
Yeah, and what's really interesting about this matchup is, and
this has been an angle that I've really kind of
delved into over the past four years, but in conference
tournaments when it's a winner go on home sort of
scenario where there's no at large possibility for a certain
team on the side and they get bailed out in
the previous round, kind of like Notre Dame has got
(39:57):
bailed out against Pitt with sort of a phantom that
put him at the line zero point five seconds left.
Speaker 5 (40:03):
They actually come.
Speaker 7 (40:04):
Out and pretty good, played pretty well the next time
out because I think the jitters are gone. They're playing
with house money and eight and a half to your point,
that's a lot to lay. And also a Notre Dame
has the best guard in this game, despite RJ. Davis
being on one side, I think Marcus Burden is actually
the guy who could take over this game. And yeah,
(40:24):
I think Notre Dame is actually live in this situation.
But I think they cover the eight and a half
for sure.
Speaker 4 (40:29):
All right, how about the game right before that in
the ACC Tournament, Virginia versus Georgia Tech. I think Georgia
Tech is a slave favorite. Yeah, one and a half here,
Virginia beat them by double digits earlier this season. And guys,
Virginia actually has a thirteen game winning streak against the
Yellow Jackets here. Does that continue tomorrow?
Speaker 7 (40:49):
It's certainly one of those kind of weird scenarios because
Georgia Tech has been man just the most high variance
team in this conference. If there is a true wild
card from kind of those that seed line of the
middle tier, I do think that Georgia Tech could potentially
upset a team or two. But at the same time,
I could see them getting bounced in round one, which
(41:10):
just makes this a non bet for me. But at
the same time, I probably would take Georgia Tech just
for that high upside of them being able to run
Virginia off the floor.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
We can't hit every game, obviously, but you know, we'll
get to the people's partly shortly. What are some of
the spots that we haven't covered that's stick out to
you on the board?
Speaker 7 (41:31):
Well, let me take the first game at ten thirty
Central or you know your guys' time eleven thirty and
Richmond Davidson a ten. This is always a great tournament,
always delivers on the opening day as well, and Richmond
is one of those teams that despite the terrible looking
win loss record, this is still a very veteran heavy
lineup with a good head cosh and really good guard
(41:53):
play man. I guess a team like Davidson that doesn't
really have a crazy amount of athletic talent, I do
feel like Richmond can get up and just walk them
off the floor and you know, they're getting six and
a half points. I think Richmond covers that line. But
if you want a fun little play in the morning,
let the money line and have a good time with it.
Speaker 2 (42:13):
Uh, with the you know before we do the parlay.
You know, something we were talking about just as you
were coming on, and obviously Richmond Davidson a good example
of it. Should we invest in first half unders for
some of these early games in the you know, lead
up to the tournament and then obviously once we get
into the big dance.
Speaker 7 (42:32):
You know, I think with certain teams, especially by rich
and Davidson matchup, because you're getting that time sort of
that start time advantage of an under and you're also
getting too chaotic defensive style of teams that yes, they
could rain threes and and get those open skip pass looks,
but they crash out in the three point line kind
(42:52):
of throw you off your rhythm, both of them, Richmond
and Davidson. So yeah, I could definitely see it under there,
And even in Virginia Georgia Tech, I kind of feel
the same way right there too, Rob.
Speaker 4 (43:02):
With all these major conferences that got going today, was
there anybody that impressed you enough or someone that you
were looking at here going into today that's thinking like,
this team, if they get hot, could rally off a
couple of wins here, like someone like maybe a Syracuse Sora,
a Cincinnati or a Kansas State, any of those teams
or someone like that that you could see, you know,
going on a little run here this week.
Speaker 7 (43:24):
You know, the one team in terms of the mid
major leagues that really jumped out to me was New Chap.
I've been waiting on that and that potential to retap
ever since they took Louisville down to the wire and
non complay because they do have I think the best
host of guards in the conference, and it just hasn't
showed up down the stretch for whatever reason. And sometimes
(43:45):
once you hit that conference tournament, the season starts a
new and you start playing to the best of your
potential because it is win or go home, and your
season's done. And tomorrow they're drawing Liberty. I think there's
kind of an inflated number right there, But I've UTAP
is a team that could rally and just win that
league out.
Speaker 2 (44:03):
Right again, Rob Donaldson here with us and let us
get to the people's parlay. Now, some of the numbers,
this is a rare example. This is not the case
with the majority of our guests. In fact, it's really
only the case with Rob and Sammy who was on
with us earlier, two guys that have given us plays
of the day for stretches of time to where their
(44:26):
overall record is nowhere close to what the parlay record
is in terms of sample size. Now, Rob, overall you
are above five hundred. When it comes to your show plays,
you are nineteen and eighteen historically, so I guess technically
a little negative when it comes to the juice. But
(44:47):
in terms of the record slightly over five hundred. The
parlay is I hate to always bring up, so we
need to change it eight eight So uh, no time,
like the President, my friend, play for tomorrow.
Speaker 7 (45:00):
What do you got Yep, We're going out to Villanova
Villanova's Seaton Hall game. I just feel like Eric Dixon
is going to be on a war path, and I
do think that Villanova is going to have a really
good chance to secure NATO beIN. They're laying eleven or
eleven and a half, depending on the book that you
guys want to use for the parlay, and I think
they win this game by twenty and again, you know,
(45:21):
if Seaton Hall only scores forty points, I won't be surprised,
and I think Villanova puts them on them from the jump.
Speaker 4 (45:29):
Dan taking us to the SEC guys the night cap
tomorrow night, Let's take Georgia minus two and a half here.
I really like the way the Dog's been playing lately,
one four in a row heading into this tournament. This
team seems like they're heating up here a little bit.
I think they can beat Oklahoma by at least a
possession tomorrow. The Model agrees says this number should be
closer to four. This number is moving as well, so
(45:50):
there's only a few books left with this within a possession,
so grab that while you can. Georgia minus two and
a half.
Speaker 2 (45:56):
So I brought it up before, and I agree with
what Rob was saying. You know, we had some confirmation
bias there as well. You see Santa Barbara minus four
and a half. I think this line is gonna move overnight,
maybe not dramatically, maybe a point or two, but as
we've seen, that can make all the difference. Obviously, this
is just a poor offensive team on the other side
and CSU Bakersfield, and I don't know if it's gonna
(46:19):
be an emphatic double digit win out of you see
Santa Barbara, But I do see the gout Joe's taking
care of business winning by at least five Brian. Here
is shopped around the parlay, and there are options depending
on what book you are on over on MGM. Your
boldest option plus six thirty eight, Nova minus eleven and
a half, Georgia minus three and a half UCSB as
(46:42):
is consistent with every book right now minus four and
a half DraftKings you drop down to six to one
plus six hundred. Nova is still eleven and a half.
But Georgia you move down to two and a half,
and Caesar's is a little advantageous to the Nova side
plus five ninety six. Villanova is my mis eleven, So
you lose the hook, but Georgia you pick up a hook,
(47:04):
and because it's Caesar's, your risk of avoiding out the
whole parlay if it lands right on an exact number,
because that book is insane and does that. Georgia is
minus three. So that's two chances of potentially having your
parlay voided by an exact margin, you know. So it's
sometimes it's nice in that sense to have the hooks
(47:25):
available to you. Looks like guys, probably the meat in
the middle option DraftKings six to one Nova eleven and
a half if Rob is comfortable with that. But we
get the best number on Georgia there at two and
a half. Rob, how do you feel because or Dan,
both of you about any fluctuation in your numbers.
Speaker 7 (47:46):
Hey, you know in my book, you know, eleven eleven
and a half is the same sort of deal. I mean,
you get the element of that safety net push, but
poor parlay, well just dive into DraftKings. I am totally
fine getting the better of that number there.
Speaker 4 (48:00):
Yeah, I would like mind to be within a possession
if we can get that, so.
Speaker 2 (48:04):
Sure, six to one it is plus six hundred DraftKings. Again,
that's Nova minus eleven and a half, Georgia minus two
and a half, UCSB minus four and a half. Rob,
let's get this thing, man.
Speaker 7 (48:17):
Man, we're well over due at this point.
Speaker 2 (48:20):
Yeah, I mean, there's that, to say the very least.
All right, we'll come on back. We thank Rob of course,
who is a professional sports handicapper partners with under a Underdog.
Pardon me on Twitter at Rob DFB. Much more on
the way in our final half hour, but Rob, thank
you so much. All Right, we'll come on back, and
(48:43):
you know a little bit more college hoops, some NBA, NFL.
Schmorga is bored, stay with us. So on the day
the Tiger Woods announces that he has ruptured his achilles,
obviously not participating in the Players Championship, but when or
(49:04):
will he'd be back? We do have another big event
to look forward to. The begins here in a couple
of days, where you know, Scottie Scheffler looking for a
three pet at TPC Sawgrass, A lot of other guys,
you know, Russell Henley who won it at bay Hill,
(49:24):
Colin Morrikawa, who was the narrow loser in that tournament
last weekend. Guys that are certainly going to be perceived
to be in contention anyway here in this event. Where
are we looking? Dan and Brian, Dan, I'll start with you, So.
Speaker 4 (49:40):
I haven't dug in too much yet on the players.
I've been just so consumed by basketball. Sure right now,
my model's top play is Jason Day for this tournament
top twenty take like a plus two forty or something
like that. He does have decent success here. He's played
this event fourteen times finish in the top twenty one, two, three,
four or five six times, so okay success. He's got
(50:04):
three top twenties this season, including a tied for eighth
last weekend at Arnold Palmer. And right before that tournament
he actually reunited with his old swing Coast coach that
he's worked on and off again for like the last
thirteen years, and he actually shot a best round of
the season at sixty four, so he could be heating
up right now. So yeah, definitely, Jason Day is someone
(50:24):
that I'd be looking at here at a top twenty ticket, Brian.
I'm eyeing a Morikawa redemption arc this week, similar to
Sanders Schoffley last year. A lot of narratives around him
not closing or winning any big tournaments. It's starting to
grow Maricawa.
Speaker 3 (50:39):
Even though he has won two Majors in the past,
it's been a few years and when Shoffley he blew
a huge lead to Rory last year at quil Hollow,
next week he went out won the PGA, then won
the Open obviously a few months later. So I kind
of like Maricow in a similar spot to win with
this course, though for year year there's not a lot
of correlation, said Scotti Scheffler. It's kind of a new
(51:00):
crop that kind of rises to the top of the
leaderboard every year at TPC Sagress, So I kind of
lean more into guys who have been playing well lately
than the course history. So I like Jason Day a lot.
I think that top twenty plates. I just saw a
plus two hundred on DK so I like that and
guys like Shane Lowry, Cepstraca, maybe even Tommy Fleetwood. Guys
I'm looking to target this week.
Speaker 2 (51:21):
Yeah, if you're curious to anyone out there about what
the odds ballpark look like, I say ballpark because this
is just one book, this is FanDuel. But Scottie Scheffler
is four to one again the massive favorite compared to
the field, McElroy at eleven to one, more cowat that
redemption arc which I do like fourteen to one, Obert
(51:42):
eighteen to one, justin Thomas. Then you start to get
into the you know, twenty to one range and beyond
obviously you could even do you know, big guns against
the field is a promotion or not a promotion, but
a tab that FanDuel had as for instance, any of Scheffler, McElroy, Morikawa,
(52:04):
Oro bear to win, any of those four guys plus
one seventy eight still a plus number, and there are
various combinations of that as it builds from there. But
as Dan alluded to basketball, especially college basketball at center
stage right now, tons of games tomorrow and as we
said here beginning in less than twelve hours, why bother sleeping,
(52:28):
Let's just wait. Thanks to our guests again for Dan,
Bryan and Madam, We'll see you.
Speaker 1 (52:36):
You've been listening to the Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six point eighty WRKO Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight.
Speaker 2 (52:52):
Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (52:53):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your
podcast
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