March 6, 2025 • 16 mins
March 6, 2025: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guest Adam Rosenberg (@heyrosenberg) from Outlier. Will the Phillies repeat as NL East champs? Are the Braves being overvalued? Just how dangerous is the Mets' offense after adding Juan Soto? Rosenberg weighs in on futures options for teams and players across one of baseball's most competitive divisions.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
If there are games to be played, there are bets
to be made. I'll bet you twenty bucks I can
get you gambled at for the end of the day.
No way.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I'll give you three to one eyes to.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Get ahead of line movement, find in game value, and
hear the latest insights from your favorite industry experts. This
is my gambling. If I win, we all win. Tell
your smart speaker to play that gambler with Adam Kaufman
on w RKO on iHeartRadio. Back on the Gambler with
(00:39):
Adam Kauffman. We are going to get to baseball, much
more college hoops on the way. But before we move
to our next guest, real quick, the people's parlay is
on the line. Here are we going to get this
one home?
Speaker 3 (00:50):
Dan Well? We need Michigan State to miss their free throws.
Let's put it that way.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
We need to root against the children. Please, point of eve,
I mean, I get the point, but also what's the point? Like,
you're down by six with ten seconds left, You're not
gonna win the game. Reggie Miller's not walking through that door.
Why are we fouling? Just let him run out the clock.
Call it a game.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Yep. So they hit the first one.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
Well that's not good. Nope, Now we need a bucket
coming back the other way. I mean, it's not like
they won't try. You know, there's gonna be a buzzer
beatter attempt.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Yeah, we'll see.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
Always a sweat, always a sweat. All right, Well, let
me know.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Yeah, I think we got hooked.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
I'm watching. I don't have FS one in the studio,
so I can't watch. I'm just going off the game cast.
Right now. We're down seven with two seconds left. That's
all I can tell you. We got six and a half, right,
not seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
Six six and a half. Yeah, was there seven and
a half.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
I think it got to seven and a half. Maybe
that might have happened today. Yep, we lost it, hooked, hooked.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Yeah, I'm just pulling it up on my TV. Yeah,
they took a three, buzzer missed another three. After the
buzzer hit it.
Speaker 4 (02:14):
Of classic clatt Wait, wait are they counting it on
my TV? They're counting it? Oh, this is important, Hang on,
this is very important.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
This is almost immensely important. Hang on on my TV.
Oh they took it off. These stupid graphics people. They
added the three ninety one eighty seven and they pulled
it off. God, that's annoy that's a tease. That is unnecessary.
I thought it was after the horn, but oh, come on,
(02:48):
just I didn't need that. That's just a Seriously, that's annoying.
That's super annoying. That really sucks. Like he had to
hit it too. You couldn't just miss it, couldn't it
the first time? Different kid even still stupid March looking
(03:10):
like a two out of three on the People's parlay.
All right, Well, as much fun as I'm sure he's
having listening to us bitching behind the scenes, let's bring
him on. Adam Rosenberg, our friend from Outlier and Rhythm,
of course, has the Babies who Bet Twitter account. You
can get him on Twitter at Hey Rosenberg. One of
the less obnoxious Philadelphia fans that you will come across.
(03:35):
I think is fair to say Rosenberg, welcome back.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
I have Michigan six and a half guys, So that
was fine for me.
Speaker 5 (03:42):
So for about Dumpy's last games and all sorts of
and senior nights it's anyway, Well, I'm not here to
talk about college basketball because I'm bleeding out on college
basketball this week, talk about baseball.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Let's talk about baseball here with us for our National
League East betting primer. We hit the AL East yesterday
with Sean Zarrillo of the Action Network, and now, of
course it is time to go cross leagues to the
other division. You know, these two divisions here, I think
many would accurately feel are the most competitive top to
(04:20):
bottom across baseball. Hell, you look at the World Series odds,
and I mentioned this yesterday. I think it's fascinating, remarkable,
not necessarily new or revolutionary, which is really interesting. The
top eight teams if you're looking at the World Series odds,
as we know, it starts with the Dodgers. So the
next seven you have three from the American League East
(04:42):
and you have three from the National League East. There
are high expectations for Atlanta, for New York, the Mets,
of course, and your Philadelphia team that won the division
last year, ending a run for the Braves of six
straight division titles. Do we see back to back from
the Phillies.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
You know, it's funny because there's a lot of Phillies
downers right now, and it's hard to tell me that
there's a better pitching rotation in that division. Certainly, I
don't know why people are suddenly down on this Phillies team,
but Philly's team is more than capable. Like Philly's team
is still minus two fifty to make the playoffs, and
(05:22):
I think that they are. Yeah, I think that they
are still prime to win the position. They also have
a general manager who likes to buy and uh. There
is a lot of talk about how just because this
Phillies team didn't win it the last two years and
didn't you know, and got less close to the the
year before, it doesn't mean that they are a worst
team than they were last year. It's still all those
(05:44):
same guys and again still arguably the best pitching rotation
that division, possibly in that in that in that league.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
I would say, where's Harper gonna play? It feels like
like kind of all over the place this year. Where
where is he actually going to slot into the lineup?
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Because you're gonna have get you on them with guys
on you want to get the most a bat to
along with guys on base. In terms of where he's
gonna play in the field, I think they're gonna keep
him at first base. Look, there's a lot of talk
like there's a lot of talking about movement of him.
They're moving around Shber. They want to make sure that
they can move Harper to DH and kind of preserve
him a little bit, preserve his knees. I also think,
(06:21):
and this is something we can talk about, uh in December.
I think they're gonna sign lad and they're gonna and
they're gonna get rid of uh Shober and then move
Harper to DH again. But that is conspiracy theory, all
that stuff that we could talk about in November after
the Billies parade when they win the World Series.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
The Mets, as we know, you know, excuse me, three
quarters of million dollars seven hundred and sixty five million
dollar deal for Juan Sodo, pulling him from the Yankees
there to their squad, and uh, it's just it's it's
win now. And I appreciate that. Like you said, Philadelphia
has an owner that wants to spend, the Mets have
ownership now that wants to spend. Tack on, you know,
(07:02):
Frankie Montaz and Clay Holmes. Obviously Pete A. Lonzo was back.
There were questions around that in the off season. Is
the Mets sort of preseason hype justified in this very crowded,
top heavy division.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Yeah, I mean, this is a really good First of all,
this is a this was a really good Mets team
last year. It's a very good Mets team this year.
They look they have a lot of depth. It's hard
to find holes in this lineup. The other thing is
just the one thing that constantly impressed me last year
about the Mets is how they really did it without
what you would call i'd say good pitching and the gender.
(07:42):
Like I mean, it's like they didn't have star pitching.
I think Mendoza just handled that staff really well. It
was a really cool thing. I guess I don't know
why I say really cool. We're all gambling, so a
very very sharp angle that I noticed the first couple
of months of the season. He was it was very,
very very strict about his pictures going five and two thirds.
(08:03):
All of them went five and two thirds. Nobody went
over that. So for outs, everything was like the magic
number was there part of why seven. Reino probably was
kept in good shape. But he's still good at managing
his innings. I mean, and I am the second half
of the season basically emulating Sale and being arguably the
third or fourth best pitcher in the l second half
(08:24):
of the season. That seem is as advertising is really good.
There's a you know, and there's a couple of future
bets around them that I really do like. And I
actually I like this manager and I like this kind
of those pieces that they've had together. I think curious
how this Clay Holmes things is gonna work, but it
kind of feels like a better version of what people
are trying to do with a J. Puck. But we'll see.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
So I see on your big list of futures that
you have out on your on your ex or Twitter
page right now, you like the Mets to not just
win this division, but to get a first round by here.
I saw you played it on FanDuel plus two to ninety.
Same bet right now is on DraftKings at three sixty.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Well I must not wasn't available probably when I did that,
But the plus two sixties a game back because here,
here's here's what that bet is. The first round by
bet is basically, it's it's if they win the if
they it's me saying, hey, I think that they could
win the division. If they win the division, they could
at least be the second best team in the league,
and the number is always a little bit better. I
(09:23):
don't know if it's necessarily going to be three teams
that come out of the come out of the NL
least again, but if you want to kind of bet
a ceiling for a team like that, you're just getting,
you know, a little bit better number on on that market.
It's basically, can this Mets team be at least the
second best team if they were going to win that division?
If they are gonna end up winning that division? And
(09:44):
so I do like that. I like that beta fair amount.
I like a Pete a Lonzo RBI leader more, but
I like that more as a value bet.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
When you're looking at World Series odds among the teams
in this division, you see the Braves at plus nine fifty,
the Phillies ten to one, and the Mets at eleven
to one. I mean, am I crazy and thinking that
there's just more value in in those lower two than
than Atlanta? It feels like Atlanta here, you know, coming
off an eighty nine win season, losing Max Freed, AJ Minter.
(10:16):
You know, obviously there's there's a lot of pop in
that lineup. Still have Strider assuming he stays healthy. But
I don't know that this team, it just feels like
there's it wouldn't take much for Atlanta to fall behind
very quickly, you know.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
I you know, and look, I've very lost their starting
catcher from last year. They're probably going to be opening
the season with Drake Baldmin behind the plate Becausehawn Murphy
broke his ribs. So what the thing is about? So
pols viz as like there aren't any tea. I don't
really take a lot of World Series bets because it's
just the market pluction with so much you can just
get a little of better value. I like doing Pennant
(10:53):
because you can kind of get your way out of it.
One of the better bets I think I made last
year was the Mets just to appear in the NLCS
at sixty to want to skin July, and that was
a pretty good bet. But you know, this Braves team
if like everything that could possibly go right for them
and right for them for two straight years, and then
last year everything that could possibly go wrong for them
(11:14):
went wrong and they still almost won ninety games. So
there's some young guys on this team that I'm pretty
excited about I don't think out the Alb's is gonna
have nearly as bad a of the year as he
had last year, and expecting pretty big things out of
Michael Harris. You know, Michael Harris is one of what
I have mine. You know, he's he's one of basically
what pretty twelve sorry twenty one, one of twenty one
(11:39):
players who had less than five hundred bats uh more
than more than one hundred and ten hits and had
a babbit over three hundred. So he's like constantly getting
the ball and play like Michael Harris is two years
removed from you know, Rookie of the Year, Like he's like,
this is a good player on that team that that's ninth.
So we will see how this all works out, and
(12:02):
everything's gonna come down to on that phrase is going
to come down to how their pitching works out. It's
a lot younger. I don't know if Sale's going to
have the same miracle year like you had last year,
but we'll see. I mean, the guy was unavailable for
all of September and the playoffs, so I.
Speaker 3 (12:16):
See you're taking a stab at Schnitker though to win
Manager of the Year.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Yeah, that's some So I like Stinkerrett manager of the Year.
He hasn't won it since twenty eight team, which is
when he brought him back to the playoffs. This is
almost a similar vibe with this Braves team, where this
is a team that went back to back hundred games
and didn't win it, and if they kind of put
it all together and things happened. As you look down
the list, like I mean, he's like fifteen to one,
(12:41):
fifteen to one for a guy who is taking a
team that came off pretty bad injuries. Steady the ship
is going to have one of the younger rotations with
Swronenbach and some of the Grant Holmes, some of these
guys in there. You know, I think that there's gonna
be a way to get him some credit for that,
and I think he's to get a lot of looks
for manager of the Year if that's something that happened.
(13:03):
A lot of the futures that've been looking at over
the last few weeks have been you know, what is
a good ceiling way to play this team? And now
now I'm starting to fill out mine, all right, well,
what's the what are my floor bets? These are all
that so I got some fun ones and then I
got that and you know, kind of identifying players that
I know I'm going to be backing see this season.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Is there a before we let you go, individual maybe
season long player prop that that stands out to you,
Whether it's I don't know, Matt Olsen over thirty two
and a half homers or Aaron Nola's strikeouts or you
know that type of thing.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
I love Christopher Sanchez twelve wins at plus one twenty.
I think I came on here. I probably came on
here in December and I told everybody, like Christoma Sanchez
is going to be the guy. Christopher Sanchez is going
to be the guy. And he has looked incredibly as like,
you know, he had the second lowest barrel rate in
the NL last year to Max Freed. He had seventh
(13:55):
in war in the entire league last year among starting pitchers.
I like him get twelve wins this year at plus
money this you know this, I think he's actually like
becoming like a little bit of an ape like him
A lot you mentioned matt Elson, like Matdelson over his
RBI total. Again, this is a good Atlanta lineup with
really good offense, and you had a lot of guys
(14:15):
who were hurt last year, so a lot of whole
things that were happening like that. I think gill Orchella
was starting at third base for a large chunk of
the season named Rafael Loreno, like it was a things
were comical, so I like, but I do a lot
pretty high on metals and I think he's got I
think he's got a good swing and things were together,
and I also look at him, you know, probably h
(14:37):
see what you can find on buying low on Austin Riley.
Austin Riley's one of the best pull hitter right anders
in the league. He was gone for obviously like about
a third of this half the year. He's someone on
the braves who I'm pretty pretty high on.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Over As an individual, Adam Rosenberg once again does great
work over with Outlier. He's involved with rhythm, He's all
over the place. You can see videos he puts out
on YouTube with many of his friends in the industry
given out Plays. Hasn't had us on his show yet, Dan,
you know, with the amount of times, amount of times
he's been on with us, we haven't gotten the invite
(15:11):
to go on with him yet. No, but now now
we've pressured you into it, it's not as authentic.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
I'd love it. I'd love to have you guys. I'm
gonna be doing a podcast too with a couple of friends.
I'd love to have you on. So yeah, we should.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
We'll make that happen absolutely. Next time I see you
over at the market, basket will work out the details.
Let's record there, shopping perfect to do it in person
shop Twitter shopping bets.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Nobody's shopping cars, nobody's yet.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
We've seen Yeah, we've seen walking bets, We've seen stepper bets,
we've seen knitting bets. Where where's the shopping bets. Yeah,
let's just wait for walking around giving out plays while
throwing stuff in our cart. I'm in man, Let's let's
go and record that one day one. I like that
a lot, very strong, strong submission. Adam Rosenberg at hey
(15:57):
Rosenberg on Twitter also has the babies who bet account
check them out on picket, giving out loads of plays
and getting you some winners. He has guaranteed me a
winning baseball season this year, by.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
The way, Yeah, that's gonna happen.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
That's on. That is on the record. It is March sixth,
twenty twenty five. That is on the record a profitable
baseball season for yours, truly because of that. Adam one
adam to another, Thanks buddy.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
I'll talk to you guys later
If there are games to be played, there are bets
to be made. I'll bet you twenty bucks I can
get you gambled at for the end of the day.
No way.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I'll give you three to one eyes to.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Get ahead of line movement, find in game value, and
hear the latest insights from your favorite industry experts. This
is my gambling. If I win, we all win. Tell
your smart speaker to play that gambler with Adam Kaufman
on w RKO on iHeartRadio. Back on the Gambler with
(00:39):
Adam Kauffman. We are going to get to baseball, much
more college hoops on the way. But before we move
to our next guest, real quick, the people's parlay is
on the line. Here are we going to get this
one home?
Speaker 3 (00:50):
Dan Well? We need Michigan State to miss their free throws.
Let's put it that way.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
We need to root against the children. Please, point of eve,
I mean, I get the point, but also what's the point? Like,
you're down by six with ten seconds left, You're not
gonna win the game. Reggie Miller's not walking through that door.
Why are we fouling? Just let him run out the clock.
Call it a game.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Yep. So they hit the first one.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
Well that's not good. Nope, Now we need a bucket
coming back the other way. I mean, it's not like
they won't try. You know, there's gonna be a buzzer
beatter attempt.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Yeah, we'll see.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
Always a sweat, always a sweat. All right, Well, let
me know.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Yeah, I think we got hooked.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
I'm watching. I don't have FS one in the studio,
so I can't watch. I'm just going off the game cast.
Right now. We're down seven with two seconds left. That's
all I can tell you. We got six and a half, right,
not seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
Six six and a half. Yeah, was there seven and
a half.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
I think it got to seven and a half. Maybe
that might have happened today. Yep, we lost it, hooked, hooked.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Yeah, I'm just pulling it up on my TV. Yeah,
they took a three, buzzer missed another three. After the
buzzer hit it.
Speaker 4 (02:14):
Of classic clatt Wait, wait are they counting it on
my TV? They're counting it? Oh, this is important, Hang on,
this is very important.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
This is almost immensely important. Hang on on my TV.
Oh they took it off. These stupid graphics people. They
added the three ninety one eighty seven and they pulled
it off. God, that's annoy that's a tease. That is unnecessary.
I thought it was after the horn, but oh, come on,
(02:48):
just I didn't need that. That's just a Seriously, that's annoying.
That's super annoying. That really sucks. Like he had to
hit it too. You couldn't just miss it, couldn't it
the first time? Different kid even still stupid March looking
(03:10):
like a two out of three on the People's parlay.
All right, Well, as much fun as I'm sure he's
having listening to us bitching behind the scenes, let's bring
him on. Adam Rosenberg, our friend from Outlier and Rhythm,
of course, has the Babies who Bet Twitter account. You
can get him on Twitter at Hey Rosenberg. One of
the less obnoxious Philadelphia fans that you will come across.
(03:35):
I think is fair to say Rosenberg, welcome back.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
I have Michigan six and a half guys, So that
was fine for me.
Speaker 5 (03:42):
So for about Dumpy's last games and all sorts of
and senior nights it's anyway, Well, I'm not here to
talk about college basketball because I'm bleeding out on college
basketball this week, talk about baseball.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Let's talk about baseball here with us for our National
League East betting primer. We hit the AL East yesterday
with Sean Zarrillo of the Action Network, and now, of
course it is time to go cross leagues to the
other division. You know, these two divisions here, I think
many would accurately feel are the most competitive top to
(04:20):
bottom across baseball. Hell, you look at the World Series odds,
and I mentioned this yesterday. I think it's fascinating, remarkable,
not necessarily new or revolutionary, which is really interesting. The
top eight teams if you're looking at the World Series odds,
as we know, it starts with the Dodgers. So the
next seven you have three from the American League East
(04:42):
and you have three from the National League East. There
are high expectations for Atlanta, for New York, the Mets,
of course, and your Philadelphia team that won the division
last year, ending a run for the Braves of six
straight division titles. Do we see back to back from
the Phillies.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
You know, it's funny because there's a lot of Phillies
downers right now, and it's hard to tell me that
there's a better pitching rotation in that division. Certainly, I
don't know why people are suddenly down on this Phillies team,
but Philly's team is more than capable. Like Philly's team
is still minus two fifty to make the playoffs, and
(05:22):
I think that they are. Yeah, I think that they
are still prime to win the position. They also have
a general manager who likes to buy and uh. There
is a lot of talk about how just because this
Phillies team didn't win it the last two years and
didn't you know, and got less close to the the
year before, it doesn't mean that they are a worst
team than they were last year. It's still all those
(05:44):
same guys and again still arguably the best pitching rotation
that division, possibly in that in that in that league.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
I would say, where's Harper gonna play? It feels like
like kind of all over the place this year. Where
where is he actually going to slot into the lineup?
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Because you're gonna have get you on them with guys
on you want to get the most a bat to
along with guys on base. In terms of where he's
gonna play in the field, I think they're gonna keep
him at first base. Look, there's a lot of talk
like there's a lot of talking about movement of him.
They're moving around Shber. They want to make sure that
they can move Harper to DH and kind of preserve
him a little bit, preserve his knees. I also think,
(06:21):
and this is something we can talk about, uh in December.
I think they're gonna sign lad and they're gonna and
they're gonna get rid of uh Shober and then move
Harper to DH again. But that is conspiracy theory, all
that stuff that we could talk about in November after
the Billies parade when they win the World Series.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
The Mets, as we know, you know, excuse me, three
quarters of million dollars seven hundred and sixty five million
dollar deal for Juan Sodo, pulling him from the Yankees
there to their squad, and uh, it's just it's it's
win now. And I appreciate that. Like you said, Philadelphia
has an owner that wants to spend, the Mets have
ownership now that wants to spend. Tack on, you know,
(07:02):
Frankie Montaz and Clay Holmes. Obviously Pete A. Lonzo was back.
There were questions around that in the off season. Is
the Mets sort of preseason hype justified in this very crowded,
top heavy division.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Yeah, I mean, this is a really good First of all,
this is a this was a really good Mets team
last year. It's a very good Mets team this year.
They look they have a lot of depth. It's hard
to find holes in this lineup. The other thing is
just the one thing that constantly impressed me last year
about the Mets is how they really did it without
what you would call i'd say good pitching and the gender.
(07:42):
Like I mean, it's like they didn't have star pitching.
I think Mendoza just handled that staff really well. It
was a really cool thing. I guess I don't know
why I say really cool. We're all gambling, so a
very very sharp angle that I noticed the first couple
of months of the season. He was it was very,
very very strict about his pictures going five and two thirds.
(08:03):
All of them went five and two thirds. Nobody went
over that. So for outs, everything was like the magic
number was there part of why seven. Reino probably was
kept in good shape. But he's still good at managing
his innings. I mean, and I am the second half
of the season basically emulating Sale and being arguably the
third or fourth best pitcher in the l second half
(08:24):
of the season. That seem is as advertising is really good.
There's a you know, and there's a couple of future
bets around them that I really do like. And I
actually I like this manager and I like this kind
of those pieces that they've had together. I think curious
how this Clay Holmes things is gonna work, but it
kind of feels like a better version of what people
are trying to do with a J. Puck. But we'll see.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
So I see on your big list of futures that
you have out on your on your ex or Twitter
page right now, you like the Mets to not just
win this division, but to get a first round by here.
I saw you played it on FanDuel plus two to ninety.
Same bet right now is on DraftKings at three sixty.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Well I must not wasn't available probably when I did that,
But the plus two sixties a game back because here,
here's here's what that bet is. The first round by
bet is basically, it's it's if they win the if
they it's me saying, hey, I think that they could
win the division. If they win the division, they could
at least be the second best team in the league,
and the number is always a little bit better. I
(09:23):
don't know if it's necessarily going to be three teams
that come out of the come out of the NL
least again, but if you want to kind of bet
a ceiling for a team like that, you're just getting,
you know, a little bit better number on on that market.
It's basically, can this Mets team be at least the
second best team if they were going to win that division?
If they are gonna end up winning that division? And
(09:44):
so I do like that. I like that beta fair amount.
I like a Pete a Lonzo RBI leader more, but
I like that more as a value bet.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
When you're looking at World Series odds among the teams
in this division, you see the Braves at plus nine fifty,
the Phillies ten to one, and the Mets at eleven
to one. I mean, am I crazy and thinking that
there's just more value in in those lower two than
than Atlanta? It feels like Atlanta here, you know, coming
off an eighty nine win season, losing Max Freed, AJ Minter.
(10:16):
You know, obviously there's there's a lot of pop in
that lineup. Still have Strider assuming he stays healthy. But
I don't know that this team, it just feels like
there's it wouldn't take much for Atlanta to fall behind
very quickly, you know.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
I you know, and look, I've very lost their starting
catcher from last year. They're probably going to be opening
the season with Drake Baldmin behind the plate Becausehawn Murphy
broke his ribs. So what the thing is about? So
pols viz as like there aren't any tea. I don't
really take a lot of World Series bets because it's
just the market pluction with so much you can just
get a little of better value. I like doing Pennant
(10:53):
because you can kind of get your way out of it.
One of the better bets I think I made last
year was the Mets just to appear in the NLCS
at sixty to want to skin July, and that was
a pretty good bet. But you know, this Braves team
if like everything that could possibly go right for them
and right for them for two straight years, and then
last year everything that could possibly go wrong for them
(11:14):
went wrong and they still almost won ninety games. So
there's some young guys on this team that I'm pretty
excited about I don't think out the Alb's is gonna
have nearly as bad a of the year as he
had last year, and expecting pretty big things out of
Michael Harris. You know, Michael Harris is one of what
I have mine. You know, he's he's one of basically
what pretty twelve sorry twenty one, one of twenty one
(11:39):
players who had less than five hundred bats uh more
than more than one hundred and ten hits and had
a babbit over three hundred. So he's like constantly getting
the ball and play like Michael Harris is two years
removed from you know, Rookie of the Year, Like he's like,
this is a good player on that team that that's ninth.
So we will see how this all works out, and
(12:02):
everything's gonna come down to on that phrase is going
to come down to how their pitching works out. It's
a lot younger. I don't know if Sale's going to
have the same miracle year like you had last year,
but we'll see. I mean, the guy was unavailable for
all of September and the playoffs, so I.
Speaker 3 (12:16):
See you're taking a stab at Schnitker though to win
Manager of the Year.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Yeah, that's some So I like Stinkerrett manager of the Year.
He hasn't won it since twenty eight team, which is
when he brought him back to the playoffs. This is
almost a similar vibe with this Braves team, where this
is a team that went back to back hundred games
and didn't win it, and if they kind of put
it all together and things happened. As you look down
the list, like I mean, he's like fifteen to one,
(12:41):
fifteen to one for a guy who is taking a
team that came off pretty bad injuries. Steady the ship
is going to have one of the younger rotations with
Swronenbach and some of the Grant Holmes, some of these
guys in there. You know, I think that there's gonna
be a way to get him some credit for that,
and I think he's to get a lot of looks
for manager of the Year if that's something that happened.
(13:03):
A lot of the futures that've been looking at over
the last few weeks have been you know, what is
a good ceiling way to play this team? And now
now I'm starting to fill out mine, all right, well,
what's the what are my floor bets? These are all
that so I got some fun ones and then I
got that and you know, kind of identifying players that
I know I'm going to be backing see this season.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Is there a before we let you go, individual maybe
season long player prop that that stands out to you,
Whether it's I don't know, Matt Olsen over thirty two
and a half homers or Aaron Nola's strikeouts or you
know that type of thing.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
I love Christopher Sanchez twelve wins at plus one twenty.
I think I came on here. I probably came on
here in December and I told everybody, like Christoma Sanchez
is going to be the guy. Christopher Sanchez is going
to be the guy. And he has looked incredibly as like,
you know, he had the second lowest barrel rate in
the NL last year to Max Freed. He had seventh
(13:55):
in war in the entire league last year among starting pitchers.
I like him get twelve wins this year at plus
money this you know this, I think he's actually like
becoming like a little bit of an ape like him
A lot you mentioned matt Elson, like Matdelson over his
RBI total. Again, this is a good Atlanta lineup with
really good offense, and you had a lot of guys
(14:15):
who were hurt last year, so a lot of whole
things that were happening like that. I think gill Orchella
was starting at third base for a large chunk of
the season named Rafael Loreno, like it was a things
were comical, so I like, but I do a lot
pretty high on metals and I think he's got I
think he's got a good swing and things were together,
and I also look at him, you know, probably h
(14:37):
see what you can find on buying low on Austin Riley.
Austin Riley's one of the best pull hitter right anders
in the league. He was gone for obviously like about
a third of this half the year. He's someone on
the braves who I'm pretty pretty high on.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Over As an individual, Adam Rosenberg once again does great
work over with Outlier. He's involved with rhythm, He's all
over the place. You can see videos he puts out
on YouTube with many of his friends in the industry
given out Plays. Hasn't had us on his show yet, Dan,
you know, with the amount of times, amount of times
he's been on with us, we haven't gotten the invite
(15:11):
to go on with him yet. No, but now now
we've pressured you into it, it's not as authentic.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
I'd love it. I'd love to have you guys. I'm
gonna be doing a podcast too with a couple of friends.
I'd love to have you on. So yeah, we should.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
We'll make that happen absolutely. Next time I see you
over at the market, basket will work out the details.
Let's record there, shopping perfect to do it in person
shop Twitter shopping bets.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Nobody's shopping cars, nobody's yet.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
We've seen Yeah, we've seen walking bets, We've seen stepper bets,
we've seen knitting bets. Where where's the shopping bets. Yeah,
let's just wait for walking around giving out plays while
throwing stuff in our cart. I'm in man, Let's let's
go and record that one day one. I like that
a lot, very strong, strong submission. Adam Rosenberg at hey
(15:57):
Rosenberg on Twitter also has the babies who bet account
check them out on picket, giving out loads of plays
and getting you some winners. He has guaranteed me a
winning baseball season this year, by.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
The way, Yeah, that's gonna happen.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
That's on. That is on the record. It is March sixth,
twenty twenty five. That is on the record a profitable
baseball season for yours, truly because of that. Adam one
adam to another, Thanks buddy.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
I'll talk to you guys later
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