March 12, 2025 • 17 mins
March 12, 2025: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guest Josh Inglis (@covers_josh) from Covers. Did you realize the MLB season starts NEXT WEEK?! That's right, the Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and Cubs is right around the corner, so Inglis hops on to preview the NL West. Are the defending champion Dodgers rightful favorites to repeat? Assuming that happens, will the Diamondbacks or Padres finish second? Which stars from this division stand out in the awards market? We've got you covered.
Follow Our Picks On The Action App: https://t.co/n1DpkYHKV5
Listen to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman Monday-Thursday from 9-Midnight on WRKO on the iHeartRadio app.
Follow Our Picks On The Action App: https://t.co/n1DpkYHKV5
Listen to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman Monday-Thursday from 9-Midnight on WRKO on the iHeartRadio app.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly betting show, Gambling.
I'll try to keep the gambling to animal.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
How do you do that by being good at it?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman streaming live on the
iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Me a moment, subscribe to the podcast. Back to Adam
Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
We are back The Gambler with Adam Kaufman with Dan Brian.
I am Adam and always enjoy welcoming first timers onto
the show, and with that we are able to do
so from covers. In just a moment, we are going
to welcome in Josh Engles, who covers baseball, football, hockey,
and excited to get his perspective as we continue our
(00:54):
division by division breakdown across Major League Baseball. We've already
done both the American League and National League East. We
moved to the West and talk about a team that is,
of course, the defending champs in Vegas has pinned them
to repeat heavily favored the Los Angeles Dodgers. Dan, did
you know, Sure you did, but you might be a
(01:15):
little caught up in all things college basketball in particular,
did you realize that we are less than one week
away from pseudo opening Day.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Yeah, yeah, we got the two games in Japan next week, right.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
That is right, Dodgers Cubs Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Of course, pitch or something like that.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Yamamoto and Imanaga, I was going head to head. Yeah,
I mean, that's that's what's announced anyway, on on Fanduels
I look at it. We got odds for these games,
you know, inflated runs eight and a half total for
these contest. It's baseball's coming, man, So how fitting of
course that we mix in National League West in time
to you know, preview that division before the season gets
(01:59):
started in that division while everyone else is in spring
training for another week or however it is. But let
us bring on the aforementioned guests again. Josh Engles from
Covers on Twitter It Covers Underscore, Josh, Josh, Welcome to
the show man. How are you.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Gentlemen? Gentlemen, happy Wednesday night. How are we doing winning
any money tonight or what.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
We're working on it? You know, the night's young man.
A lot of college basketball to play itself, outs NBA
games to finish, but hoping for a strong finish as always.
How about yourself, I'll.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Looking at the four game at hlse looking for some
more points in the lake games, but so far we're
winning money just beending linemates and Hockey's like the smartest
thing I've done in betting in a long time. If
someone's going to get a point, there's probably a good
chance that his linemate's going to get a point. Put
them together. Plus money. Always it's stacking lines and making money.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
There you go, good point, good little tip on the NHL.
Let's focus on baseball here with again Dodgers, as mentioned
getting underway less than a week is. We sit here
now the odds to win the World Series. No surprise,
the Dodgers are the favorites. Honestly, there's so much hype
around this team. There's a small part of me that's
surprised that it's not minus money but plus two forty
(03:13):
on LA to win the World Series, followed not as
closely by the Braves and completely overrated Yankees, each at
nine to one. Then you start to get into the
four figure numbers. At that point in time. The Dodgers, look,
they've got the talent as we know. I mean, hell,
they didn't even stay completely healthy last year and finished
(03:33):
below their win total was, as I recall, oneh three
and a half, they landed at ninety eight. Still again
did win their first championship in a long long time,
absent obviously the COVID shortened season. Do you expect them
I know there's no value in the number necessarily, but
do you expect them to go out and repeat?
Speaker 2 (03:54):
I mean, this number, you don't have to rush to
go get the Dodgers at plus two forty, that's gonna
be there until maybe like game one sixty two, like
starting playoffs, that number could literally be the same. Do
I expect him to repeat? I think the funniest thing
about this is that we had a total of three
point five last year with the roster. The improvements happened,
(04:14):
and now we're getting a one oh four five. Not
a lot of projections like this over but I mean,
it's just so stacked. Name wise, it's so stacked. But
when you kind of dig into that rotation, Blake Snell,
is he gonna pitch more than one hundred and ten innings? Yamamoto?
Is Roberts gonna keep him at you know, in between
four and five innings? Tyler glass. Now he'll be on
(04:36):
the shelf at some point. Roky Suzaki is obviously the biggest,
the biggest question mark in this. I mean, this is
a guy six to two. He'd beat Otawni's fastball record
in high school. I mean, there is a guy who
pitched one hundred and ninety four pitches in Koshen in
their high school baseball tournament. So we're really worried about
to see what he is. And obviously Otani won't be
pitching til May. Tony Gonslin's already on the shelf, so
(04:58):
there is pitching sich. But I mean they can bolster.
They have so much depth here and they can bring
him from the bullpen, so they'll be able to But
I'm not honesteeing anybody who's throwing one hundred and ninety
innings on this. But then, I mean then you get
to the lineup, you go Tony Betts Freeman, Hernandez Munsey,
Will Smith, and then it kind of at the bottom,
(05:19):
like is Michael Conforto is he gonna beat anything this year?
James Outman is kind of out, Pajes is kind of
the center fielder situation. Rookie Betsan's getting a lot of reps.
In short stuff, everything's there. Especially when you go through
the rest of this division, it's nothing. Really, nothing measures
up in terms of depth in the rotation, depth in five, six,
(05:44):
seven numbers in that rotation, and then one to six.
No one in this division can even touch that. So
will they probably win one hundred games? Yes? Am I
gonna bet them under one oh three and a half
or one o four and a half when a lot
of the projections are saying ninety nine. No, because it's
just that good of a team, and that's kind of
what you usually see in betty, all of these high
(06:06):
end teams, So you'd have to pay tax mark the
sharps and the projections are gonna like the under. And
then on the other side, when we get to it Colorado,
they're probably gonna like the over. As betting always is,
the uglier it is, there's usually more value on it.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
So, Josh, I mean, there's not really any any reason
to really talk about this division and who's winning it
with the Dodgers sitting at minus four point fifty before
the season even starts, but uh.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Worse Fanduels minus six fifty.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
Wow, So you can actually get a a little bit
of value there on DK apparently on the Dodgers to
win the West, But who's coming in second? The Diamondbacks
the Padres both have good teams, but they both have
flaws too. I mean San Diego might trade Dylan Cees.
That's been a rumor all off season, still a rumor
right now heading into opening day. Arizona. I love the
addition to Corbyn Burns, but I think there's some question
(06:53):
marks in that lineup. Are these teams? Would do you
like either one of these teams to make the playoffs?
How are you looking at the two squads?
Speaker 2 (07:02):
I think I was on the Arizona trade too. I
liked it, and I was I was really buying the
narrative that because of the owner situation in San Diego,
they're not gonna buy, they're not going to add. In fact,
they're probably gonna sell. But I think a lot of
that is priced into this situation. With Arizona at a
eighty six and a half win total in San Diego
at an eighty five and a half, I think there's
(07:22):
a little value on San Diego. Yes, it's Burns, Gallon,
Kelly Rodriguez, and I love Brandon fog is one of
the most efficient pitchers in baseball. But outside of that,
this is still an Arizona team that I don't like
the back end of that lineup. When you got Lornus
Gorriel in the four spot, you're probably gonna struggle. But
on the other side, San Diego's been there. San Diego
(07:43):
was a game away from knocking off the Dodgers. San
Diego if they can stay competitive where the ownership doesn't
have to sell seats and it's not just seats like
Luisa Rays is also a free agent, so they might
want to get something from him. Michael Kinks a free
agent next year, so there are some issues there. But
all of a sudden, if let's say everything plays out
(08:04):
and we keep the side the ownership situation, which I
think is priced into this Dylan Cees who, I mean,
no one's running out to. I'm not running out to
bet Paul Skeins at plus two seventy five for nl
Cy Young. I just can't at that price. I don't
think so. I think someone at don't season sixteen to one,
who projects to lead MLB in strikeouts, he's the better move.
(08:26):
So I like cease and then you go cease King
Darvish and the acquisition in Nick Pavetta Matt Waldron can
swing in that four or five spot. Two. There's a
lot to like about the Padres. And I think we're
blowing this up too much because when you go Luis
aries Tis, but Jackson Merrill's only getting better. Machado, Crona,
(08:48):
Bogarts and I filled some holes in the back end
with Hayward on a one year dear. They got Elias
dis who does have some pop in the catcher position,
and I mean Jose Glacias is nothing exciting about that situation.
But I still think head to head, I think they're
the better team than Arizona. And I think you get
a little discount. I mean, you can get LA first,
(09:12):
San Diego second, exactly at plus two thirty, and because
we all know that the Dodgers are going to win
the division, you can get a little more value in
terms of it because shift San Diego to finish in
the top two plus one forty five. But if you
throw LA and San Diego in that exacta, you're getting
plus two thirty. So I think there's a unique opportunity
(09:33):
to package the LA in the one and put San
Diego in the two if you're a San Diego backer.
But I think a lot of people are going to
say that I think Arizona is the number two spot
just because of the situation in San Diego. But I mean,
we don't really know, and it's kind of subjective in
what everybody's saying that, yeah, they're going to trade Dylan cease.
John Polmerosi that I believe, just this week said he
(09:53):
doesn't believe that they're going to sell to the Yankees.
So I think there's a little discount on the priors here.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
So look what you just threw out in terms of
that package exact, I like better than what I'm gonna
mention right now, but I'm gonna do it anyway. Not
a lot of people like to tie up money in
futures that are you know, your typical minus one ten
the minus one twenty bet that you know you could
place the bet right now on something a game happening
tomorrow and get your return and not have to wait
(10:23):
several months for it. That being said, I'm curious which
bets you think are these smarter investments with those two
teams on different sides. What I mean by that is
San Diego eighty five and a half win total, Arizona
eighty six and a half win total. But both of
these teams are essentially minus one ten, minus one fifteen
simply to make the playoffs. So, considering you're getting similar
(10:47):
odds across the board, of those four bets, which one
makes the most sense attacking a win total or making
the postseason?
Speaker 2 (10:57):
It's so interesting what the NLA with six spots open,
right Atlanta Dodgers one two, and you got to take
one from the Central Sorry, you have to right now
win totals and Cubs at eighty six and a half,
Brews are in eighty two and a half. And then
you go Philly Mets, Arizona San Diego. One of those
teams is not gonna make it. You're kind of leaning
(11:21):
like it's say Atlanta Philly Mets on the Triple Division.
But I still think San Diego can pass Arizona. I
like the playoffs. I like the playoffs. At minus one ten,
I think there's there's more outs in that in saying
that both teams could make the playoffs, in Arizona and
San Diego. So if you're getting the same price, I'm
not exactly sure where the San Diego Padres are where
(11:44):
that is at the eighty five and a half right now.
But if it's minus one fifteen and you can get
to make the playoffs at minus one ten, even then
the five points, I think maybe that's where you go
instead eighty six. Yeah, eighty six get you there. Ninety
three he got him there last time, So I mean
maybe there's a four there's a four wing gap there,
(12:04):
But I mean Atlanta, Philly, Mets, Dodgers, Arizona, San Diego,
and then Brewers or Cubs. Of those two, one of
them is not making it. So that's a tough one.
But like I said, San Diego, I like in the
two spot now that I'm thinking about it, if that
win total is somewhere around that ninety two to make
the playoffs, four wins is probably too much for that
(12:25):
five cents. So yeah, probably stick with the eighty five
and a half over instead of the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (12:31):
So the only team we haven't even mentioned, the San
Francisco Giants yet eighty and a half is their win total.
I really like the rotation. Logan Webb's the stud. Robbie
Ray has won a cy Young in his career. Jordan
Hicks I think has great upside. And then you had
Justin Verlander in the mix too. We'll see what he
has left. Eighty and a half is their win total
to make the playoffs plus two h five anything that
(12:52):
you like with the Giants?
Speaker 2 (12:54):
I hate the Giants. I hate everything about the Giants. Okay, everything,
every best right except Logan Webb. No, no, But it's funny,
like Logan wats an absolute study. He's led the NL
in innings pitching back to back seasons. But even though
he did that, the Giants last year logged the least
amount of innings from their starting pitching. And then when
(13:17):
you look at it, what you're going to get this year? Okay,
Robbie Ray, what do you pitched last year? Thirty innings? Okay?
Justin Berlander one year, fifteen million dollars. He's got that
same idea in terms of he's going to come there,
and people are like, well, he's going to be a
pitching coach for who Jordan Hicks, who doesn't pitch a lot,
who's transitioning still for Hayden bird Song, who has walk
(13:39):
props of two and a half, which is unheard of
in baseball. It is such a bad rotation that things
go well, and logan Web has to pitch two hundred
plus innings just to get him anywhere. He's twenty five
bi to one cy Young and if they win, they're
going to have to do it through logan Web. But
outside of that, it's ugly. And then they spend a
lot of money on Willie Dummas. I get it, it's
awesomes put the stamp on, but like, will you get
(14:02):
the same thing now that Damins got one hundred and
eighty five or whatever it was million dollars, You're gonna
get early search for Matt Chapman. But that's it, And
then you go round Moost, Bailey, Flores, Yustretsky, Fitzgerald, like
it's like it's another team. I think this San Francisco
Giants team has one of the biggest variances in terms
of win loss and I don't think they can go
(14:23):
over like eighty three. I'm talking like seventy to eighty three,
so I think their window of their under is a
lot better. And like they're not to make the playoffs
at like minus two forty. I know, like no one's
gonna want to jump on a minus two forty, But
like that in this division, I think is my favorite. Bet.
I know it's not exciting, but San Francisco White making
the playoffs and I don't even know outside the web,
(14:45):
I don't know if they're gonna have a picture that
throws one hundred and ten innings.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
I'm gonna squeeze him one more. We do have to break,
but we'll do this one quickly. Here the awards market,
it's it's top heavy, both MVP and cy Young with
guys from this division. Obviously, the defending MVP is the favorite. Again,
show hey Otani, who expects to pitch this year. He
is plus one forty five on FanDuel. Also in that
(15:10):
top handful, Fernando Tatis, Mookie Betts, with the Cy Young
you've got obviously, Paul Skeens is the favorite coming off
a Rookie of the Year. But you have Blake Snell,
you have Corbyn Burns, you have Yamamoto as well. Whether
it's one of those guys that I mentioned in the
NL West or value elsewhere, who would you back?
Speaker 2 (15:34):
I mean, rookie Betts at the right price, I mean
offensively for jects to say more. As Otani, they already
talking about taking his bats away because he's going to
pitch they're talking about, and he won't be stealing as
many bases. So if there's probably a giant onus hung
cheaping show hey healthy this year, and Dave Roberts might
be handling baby bumps and that opens things up. Mookie
(15:56):
bets and that two spot, I believe it's a bet
number three betting favorite somewhere else plus eight hundred. Not
sure I love that number as much, but like, I'm
not going out bett Otonni at plus one eighty five
for the same reason not betting Paul Schemes at plus
two to seventy five. Everything just has to go right
just to get that, And I've tied up my money
for an entire season at some pretty awful future odds.
(16:18):
Give me someone like Corby Carroll for MVP at twenty
two to one. I mean, if Arizona's gonna make a push,
I know I said I like San Diego better, but
he's coming off like kind of a down year in
terms of batting average, went from twenty three to like
two thirty seven, could lead the league and runs lead
the league in triples. There's a lot to like in
terms of what Carol can put up in numbers and
twenty two to one. I think maybe he can pass
(16:40):
someone like Moki Mooki playing short stop. I wouldn't put
it past him just to ship like, Wow, look at Mookie.
He's done so well, he's transitioning. He's nevery day short stopped.
Look what he's doing on this number one team in baseball.
And if Al Toadni misses some time, the eyes might
go to Mooki.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Josh Engles once again from Covers on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Josh,
We're making our way round and round the division circuits
across Major League Baseball, and Josh, we may just have
you again to preview another one of these divisions as
we get closer to the season, and then I'm sure
we'll bug you plenty once the year gets underway. Thanks
so much for hopping on.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Enjoy the college basketball. Good luck with your bets. Gentlemen,
We'll talk to you later
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly betting show, Gambling.
I'll try to keep the gambling to animal.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
How do you do that by being good at it?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's a Gambler with Adam Kaufman streaming live on the
iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Me a moment, subscribe to the podcast. Back to Adam
Kaufman and Dan Watkins.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
We are back The Gambler with Adam Kaufman with Dan Brian.
I am Adam and always enjoy welcoming first timers onto
the show, and with that we are able to do
so from covers. In just a moment, we are going
to welcome in Josh Engles, who covers baseball, football, hockey,
and excited to get his perspective as we continue our
(00:54):
division by division breakdown across Major League Baseball. We've already
done both the American League and National League East. We
moved to the West and talk about a team that is,
of course, the defending champs in Vegas has pinned them
to repeat heavily favored the Los Angeles Dodgers. Dan, did
you know, Sure you did, but you might be a
(01:15):
little caught up in all things college basketball in particular,
did you realize that we are less than one week
away from pseudo opening Day.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Yeah, yeah, we got the two games in Japan next week, right.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
That is right, Dodgers Cubs Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Of course, pitch or something like that.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Yamamoto and Imanaga, I was going head to head. Yeah,
I mean, that's that's what's announced anyway, on on Fanduels
I look at it. We got odds for these games,
you know, inflated runs eight and a half total for
these contest. It's baseball's coming, man, So how fitting of
course that we mix in National League West in time
to you know, preview that division before the season gets
(01:59):
started in that division while everyone else is in spring
training for another week or however it is. But let
us bring on the aforementioned guests again. Josh Engles from
Covers on Twitter It Covers Underscore, Josh, Josh, Welcome to
the show man. How are you.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Gentlemen? Gentlemen, happy Wednesday night. How are we doing winning
any money tonight or what.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
We're working on it? You know, the night's young man.
A lot of college basketball to play itself, outs NBA
games to finish, but hoping for a strong finish as always.
How about yourself, I'll.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Looking at the four game at hlse looking for some
more points in the lake games, but so far we're
winning money just beending linemates and Hockey's like the smartest
thing I've done in betting in a long time. If
someone's going to get a point, there's probably a good
chance that his linemate's going to get a point. Put
them together. Plus money. Always it's stacking lines and making money.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
There you go, good point, good little tip on the NHL.
Let's focus on baseball here with again Dodgers, as mentioned
getting underway less than a week is. We sit here
now the odds to win the World Series. No surprise,
the Dodgers are the favorites. Honestly, there's so much hype
around this team. There's a small part of me that's
surprised that it's not minus money but plus two forty
(03:13):
on LA to win the World Series, followed not as
closely by the Braves and completely overrated Yankees, each at
nine to one. Then you start to get into the
four figure numbers. At that point in time. The Dodgers, look,
they've got the talent as we know. I mean, hell,
they didn't even stay completely healthy last year and finished
(03:33):
below their win total was, as I recall, oneh three
and a half, they landed at ninety eight. Still again
did win their first championship in a long long time,
absent obviously the COVID shortened season. Do you expect them
I know there's no value in the number necessarily, but
do you expect them to go out and repeat?
Speaker 2 (03:54):
I mean, this number, you don't have to rush to
go get the Dodgers at plus two forty, that's gonna
be there until maybe like game one sixty two, like
starting playoffs, that number could literally be the same. Do
I expect him to repeat? I think the funniest thing
about this is that we had a total of three
point five last year with the roster. The improvements happened,
(04:14):
and now we're getting a one oh four five. Not
a lot of projections like this over but I mean,
it's just so stacked. Name wise, it's so stacked. But
when you kind of dig into that rotation, Blake Snell,
is he gonna pitch more than one hundred and ten innings? Yamamoto?
Is Roberts gonna keep him at you know, in between
four and five innings? Tyler glass. Now he'll be on
(04:36):
the shelf at some point. Roky Suzaki is obviously the biggest,
the biggest question mark in this. I mean, this is
a guy six to two. He'd beat Otawni's fastball record
in high school. I mean, there is a guy who
pitched one hundred and ninety four pitches in Koshen in
their high school baseball tournament. So we're really worried about
to see what he is. And obviously Otani won't be
pitching til May. Tony Gonslin's already on the shelf, so
(04:58):
there is pitching sich. But I mean they can bolster.
They have so much depth here and they can bring
him from the bullpen, so they'll be able to But
I'm not honesteeing anybody who's throwing one hundred and ninety
innings on this. But then, I mean then you get
to the lineup, you go Tony Betts Freeman, Hernandez Munsey,
Will Smith, and then it kind of at the bottom,
(05:19):
like is Michael Conforto is he gonna beat anything this year?
James Outman is kind of out, Pajes is kind of
the center fielder situation. Rookie Betsan's getting a lot of reps.
In short stuff, everything's there. Especially when you go through
the rest of this division, it's nothing. Really, nothing measures
up in terms of depth in the rotation, depth in five, six,
(05:44):
seven numbers in that rotation, and then one to six.
No one in this division can even touch that. So
will they probably win one hundred games? Yes? Am I
gonna bet them under one oh three and a half
or one o four and a half when a lot
of the projections are saying ninety nine. No, because it's
just that good of a team, and that's kind of
what you usually see in betty, all of these high
(06:06):
end teams, So you'd have to pay tax mark the
sharps and the projections are gonna like the under. And
then on the other side, when we get to it Colorado,
they're probably gonna like the over. As betting always is,
the uglier it is, there's usually more value on it.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
So, Josh, I mean, there's not really any any reason
to really talk about this division and who's winning it
with the Dodgers sitting at minus four point fifty before
the season even starts, but uh.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Worse Fanduels minus six fifty.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
Wow, So you can actually get a a little bit
of value there on DK apparently on the Dodgers to
win the West, But who's coming in second? The Diamondbacks
the Padres both have good teams, but they both have
flaws too. I mean San Diego might trade Dylan Cees.
That's been a rumor all off season, still a rumor
right now heading into opening day. Arizona. I love the
addition to Corbyn Burns, but I think there's some question
(06:53):
marks in that lineup. Are these teams? Would do you
like either one of these teams to make the playoffs?
How are you looking at the two squads?
Speaker 2 (07:02):
I think I was on the Arizona trade too. I
liked it, and I was I was really buying the
narrative that because of the owner situation in San Diego,
they're not gonna buy, they're not going to add. In fact,
they're probably gonna sell. But I think a lot of
that is priced into this situation. With Arizona at a
eighty six and a half win total in San Diego
at an eighty five and a half, I think there's
(07:22):
a little value on San Diego. Yes, it's Burns, Gallon,
Kelly Rodriguez, and I love Brandon fog is one of
the most efficient pitchers in baseball. But outside of that,
this is still an Arizona team that I don't like
the back end of that lineup. When you got Lornus
Gorriel in the four spot, you're probably gonna struggle. But
on the other side, San Diego's been there. San Diego
(07:43):
was a game away from knocking off the Dodgers. San
Diego if they can stay competitive where the ownership doesn't
have to sell seats and it's not just seats like
Luisa Rays is also a free agent, so they might
want to get something from him. Michael Kinks a free
agent next year, so there are some issues there. But
all of a sudden, if let's say everything plays out
(08:04):
and we keep the side the ownership situation, which I
think is priced into this Dylan Cees who, I mean,
no one's running out to. I'm not running out to
bet Paul Skeins at plus two seventy five for nl
Cy Young. I just can't at that price. I don't
think so. I think someone at don't season sixteen to one,
who projects to lead MLB in strikeouts, he's the better move.
(08:26):
So I like cease and then you go cease King
Darvish and the acquisition in Nick Pavetta Matt Waldron can
swing in that four or five spot. Two. There's a
lot to like about the Padres. And I think we're
blowing this up too much because when you go Luis
aries Tis, but Jackson Merrill's only getting better. Machado, Crona,
(08:48):
Bogarts and I filled some holes in the back end
with Hayward on a one year dear. They got Elias
dis who does have some pop in the catcher position,
and I mean Jose Glacias is nothing exciting about that situation.
But I still think head to head, I think they're
the better team than Arizona. And I think you get
a little discount. I mean, you can get LA first,
(09:12):
San Diego second, exactly at plus two thirty, and because
we all know that the Dodgers are going to win
the division, you can get a little more value in
terms of it because shift San Diego to finish in
the top two plus one forty five. But if you
throw LA and San Diego in that exacta, you're getting
plus two thirty. So I think there's a unique opportunity
(09:33):
to package the LA in the one and put San
Diego in the two if you're a San Diego backer.
But I think a lot of people are going to
say that I think Arizona is the number two spot
just because of the situation in San Diego. But I mean,
we don't really know, and it's kind of subjective in
what everybody's saying that, yeah, they're going to trade Dylan cease.
John Polmerosi that I believe, just this week said he
(09:53):
doesn't believe that they're going to sell to the Yankees.
So I think there's a little discount on the priors here.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
So look what you just threw out in terms of
that package exact, I like better than what I'm gonna
mention right now, but I'm gonna do it anyway. Not
a lot of people like to tie up money in
futures that are you know, your typical minus one ten
the minus one twenty bet that you know you could
place the bet right now on something a game happening
tomorrow and get your return and not have to wait
(10:23):
several months for it. That being said, I'm curious which
bets you think are these smarter investments with those two
teams on different sides. What I mean by that is
San Diego eighty five and a half win total, Arizona
eighty six and a half win total. But both of
these teams are essentially minus one ten, minus one fifteen
simply to make the playoffs. So, considering you're getting similar
(10:47):
odds across the board, of those four bets, which one
makes the most sense attacking a win total or making
the postseason?
Speaker 2 (10:57):
It's so interesting what the NLA with six spots open,
right Atlanta Dodgers one two, and you got to take
one from the Central Sorry, you have to right now
win totals and Cubs at eighty six and a half,
Brews are in eighty two and a half. And then
you go Philly Mets, Arizona San Diego. One of those
teams is not gonna make it. You're kind of leaning
(11:21):
like it's say Atlanta Philly Mets on the Triple Division.
But I still think San Diego can pass Arizona. I
like the playoffs. I like the playoffs. At minus one ten,
I think there's there's more outs in that in saying
that both teams could make the playoffs, in Arizona and
San Diego. So if you're getting the same price, I'm
not exactly sure where the San Diego Padres are where
(11:44):
that is at the eighty five and a half right now.
But if it's minus one fifteen and you can get
to make the playoffs at minus one ten, even then
the five points, I think maybe that's where you go
instead eighty six. Yeah, eighty six get you there. Ninety
three he got him there last time, So I mean
maybe there's a four there's a four wing gap there,
(12:04):
But I mean Atlanta, Philly, Mets, Dodgers, Arizona, San Diego,
and then Brewers or Cubs. Of those two, one of
them is not making it. So that's a tough one.
But like I said, San Diego, I like in the
two spot now that I'm thinking about it, if that
win total is somewhere around that ninety two to make
the playoffs, four wins is probably too much for that
(12:25):
five cents. So yeah, probably stick with the eighty five
and a half over instead of the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (12:31):
So the only team we haven't even mentioned, the San
Francisco Giants yet eighty and a half is their win total.
I really like the rotation. Logan Webb's the stud. Robbie
Ray has won a cy Young in his career. Jordan
Hicks I think has great upside. And then you had
Justin Verlander in the mix too. We'll see what he
has left. Eighty and a half is their win total
to make the playoffs plus two h five anything that
(12:52):
you like with the Giants?
Speaker 2 (12:54):
I hate the Giants. I hate everything about the Giants. Okay, everything,
every best right except Logan Webb. No, no, But it's funny,
like Logan wats an absolute study. He's led the NL
in innings pitching back to back seasons. But even though
he did that, the Giants last year logged the least
amount of innings from their starting pitching. And then when
(13:17):
you look at it, what you're going to get this year? Okay,
Robbie Ray, what do you pitched last year? Thirty innings? Okay?
Justin Berlander one year, fifteen million dollars. He's got that
same idea in terms of he's going to come there,
and people are like, well, he's going to be a
pitching coach for who Jordan Hicks, who doesn't pitch a lot,
who's transitioning still for Hayden bird Song, who has walk
(13:39):
props of two and a half, which is unheard of
in baseball. It is such a bad rotation that things
go well, and logan Web has to pitch two hundred
plus innings just to get him anywhere. He's twenty five
bi to one cy Young and if they win, they're
going to have to do it through logan Web. But
outside of that, it's ugly. And then they spend a
lot of money on Willie Dummas. I get it, it's
awesomes put the stamp on, but like, will you get
(14:02):
the same thing now that Damins got one hundred and
eighty five or whatever it was million dollars, You're gonna
get early search for Matt Chapman. But that's it, And
then you go round Moost, Bailey, Flores, Yustretsky, Fitzgerald, like
it's like it's another team. I think this San Francisco
Giants team has one of the biggest variances in terms
of win loss and I don't think they can go
(14:23):
over like eighty three. I'm talking like seventy to eighty three,
so I think their window of their under is a
lot better. And like they're not to make the playoffs
at like minus two forty. I know, like no one's
gonna want to jump on a minus two forty, But
like that in this division, I think is my favorite. Bet.
I know it's not exciting, but San Francisco White making
the playoffs and I don't even know outside the web,
(14:45):
I don't know if they're gonna have a picture that
throws one hundred and ten innings.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
I'm gonna squeeze him one more. We do have to break,
but we'll do this one quickly. Here the awards market,
it's it's top heavy, both MVP and cy Young with
guys from this division. Obviously, the defending MVP is the favorite. Again,
show hey Otani, who expects to pitch this year. He
is plus one forty five on FanDuel. Also in that
(15:10):
top handful, Fernando Tatis, Mookie Betts, with the Cy Young
you've got obviously, Paul Skeens is the favorite coming off
a Rookie of the Year. But you have Blake Snell,
you have Corbyn Burns, you have Yamamoto as well. Whether
it's one of those guys that I mentioned in the
NL West or value elsewhere, who would you back?
Speaker 2 (15:34):
I mean, rookie Betts at the right price, I mean
offensively for jects to say more. As Otani, they already
talking about taking his bats away because he's going to
pitch they're talking about, and he won't be stealing as
many bases. So if there's probably a giant onus hung
cheaping show hey healthy this year, and Dave Roberts might
be handling baby bumps and that opens things up. Mookie
(15:56):
bets and that two spot, I believe it's a bet
number three betting favorite somewhere else plus eight hundred. Not
sure I love that number as much, but like, I'm
not going out bett Otonni at plus one eighty five
for the same reason not betting Paul Schemes at plus
two to seventy five. Everything just has to go right
just to get that, And I've tied up my money
for an entire season at some pretty awful future odds.
(16:18):
Give me someone like Corby Carroll for MVP at twenty
two to one. I mean, if Arizona's gonna make a push,
I know I said I like San Diego better, but
he's coming off like kind of a down year in
terms of batting average, went from twenty three to like
two thirty seven, could lead the league and runs lead
the league in triples. There's a lot to like in
terms of what Carol can put up in numbers and
twenty two to one. I think maybe he can pass
(16:40):
someone like Moki Mooki playing short stop. I wouldn't put
it past him just to ship like, Wow, look at Mookie.
He's done so well, he's transitioning. He's nevery day short stopped.
Look what he's doing on this number one team in baseball.
And if Al Toadni misses some time, the eyes might
go to Mooki.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Josh Engles once again from Covers on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Josh,
We're making our way round and round the division circuits
across Major League Baseball, and Josh, we may just have
you again to preview another one of these divisions as
we get closer to the season, and then I'm sure
we'll bug you plenty once the year gets underway. Thanks
so much for hopping on.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Enjoy the college basketball. Good luck with your bets. Gentlemen,
We'll talk to you later
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com