Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
If there are games to be played, there are bets
to be made.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'll bet you twenty bucks I can get you gambled
at for the end of the days. No way, I'll
give you three to one.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Eyes here, get ahead of line movement, find in game value,
and hear the latest insights from your favorite industry experts.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
This is my gambling.
Speaker 4 (00:23):
Good bye, win, We all win.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Tell your smart speaker to play that gambler with Adam
Kauffman on w RKO on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Back on the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. So much coming
your way. NBA looking ahead to a light slate tomorrow
with Prop bomb from of course Prop Bombs, Props Discord
coming up in a little bit next hour, plenty of
college hoops as we know, lengthy slate tomorrow, and of
course we'll continue our division by DIVISI Baseball primer, get
(01:02):
into the National League West, talk about those defending and
Vegas picked future champion Los Angeles Dodgers. But right now
a timeout from all of that to turn our attention
to the Players Championship, next huge event on the PGA Tour,
which of course te'se off tomorrow morning. TPC sagrass and
(01:22):
here to help us breaking down break it down from
parts unknown. I don't know where he is default. I
usually say Chili's, but it's hard to say. Jason Sobl
here with us, and I want to mention as well
on Twitter Jason Soble Golf, but also, for the first
time since the last time he joined us, has added
a new role to his Twitter bio. To his resume.
(01:45):
We know sirius XMPGA Tour Radio, we know brand ambassador
bet MGM, but how about golf analyst over at CBS
Sports HQ as well. Soble, congrats and welcome back.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
Well, thank you, Adam. I appreciate you guys having me.
Uh yeah, I got another wall. It's almost like a
cool joke. And I'm a guy that does like to
work that much. They keep giving me new jobs to
do and I keep having.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
We'll say that too loud, the way the industry is
these days.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
I know, I know, No, I'm very very grateful for it.
I really am.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
So last time you were on with us was you know, honestly,
I don't even remember the event we talked about, but
I remember that it was just before the Super Bowl.
Because the thing that has stayed with me was your
love of Nico Remihio to have an any time touchdown
in that game, which you know I was thinking about
you watching the game, because there was one return where
(02:37):
he had like one guy to beat and got tripped up.
But that was the moment, that was when that ticket
could have cashed. And so for all of your love
for the abstract that is Nico Remihio, I want to
just keep saying his name because his name is so
much fun to say. You must be counting down the
moments until you can fill out a bracket.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
Well, first of all, are you kidding me? I slid
three touchdowns that game? Are we sure that's the backus
box score? I'm pretty sure I cashed everything that night.
By the way, the super Bowl is terrible. I'm sitting
there as this big party with your usual squares pool
they've got. We've actually got like ten different squares pools
going on at different denominations. I'm pretty sure I lost
(03:20):
everything that I invested that had to do with skill
and knowledge. I won everything where I just put my
initials in a box and did absolutely nothing. So it
was pretty much a wash on Super Bowl night, which
was totally fine. With me. Yeah. So look, Mark Mannets,
I used to be a massive college hoops fan. I'm
gonna I'm gonna level with you. Like I I just
(03:42):
don't watch it anymore. I mean, I've seen a little
Duke and Cooper Flag. I know they're really good. All
my Gator buddies down here in Florida tell me that
the Florida Gators are gonna be really good this year,
and they got shot at it. But I just I
don't pay enough attention, which means I'm still gonna bet it.
Which what that means is that I watch no games
and from Monday to Wednesday, I'll do a ton of research.
(04:04):
Next week and by Thursday, I'm like, how do you
play a box and two on them? They can shoot
me outside, pretend like I know everything as most of
us do.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
But let's get into the Players Championship here with the
time that we have remaining, right, the world's number one,
Scotty Scheffler, I'm the three peat at TPC Sawgrass. He is,
of course the betting favored by a wide margin. You know,
I'm looking at Fandel here four to one, and then
next best is Rory McElroy at eleven to one, you
get to Colin Moore Cowell, who of course should have
(04:35):
won at Bay Hill. Congrats Russell Henley fourteen to one,
and Ludwig Oberg at sixteen to one. Then you start
to you know, really get into some of the distance
at twenty to one's and longer. Obviously, look, I know
you're not someone that likes to live near the top
of the board, so I'm assuming you're not invested in
Scotty Scheffler. But in terms of those that are closest
(04:58):
before we start to get into value opportunities with outrights,
where are you looking?
Speaker 4 (05:03):
Yeah, so I actually am looking near the top of
the board for my favorite outrights this week and for
twenty years, more than twenty years, I've been previewing the
Players Championship, and every single time I've said, look, this
is the most democratic golf tournament, the most democratic golf course.
I'm the PGJ Tour. We have superstars like Tiger, We've
had journeymen like Craig Parks. We've had veterans like Phil Micholson,
(05:24):
rookies like Seawoo Kim, big hitters like Maury McElroy, and
short hitters like Fred Funk. Anyone can win. And while
I still believe that, what we've seen since the move
from May to March on the schedule back in twenty nineteen,
it's become a place where the best of the best
go out there and win. It's been Mary McElroy, Justin Thomas,
Cameron Smith and of course Scotty Sheffler in the last
(05:46):
two years. That's not just good players. That's the cream
of the crop. And there's a reason for it. It's
not just coincidence. The fact that the course plays a
little bit softer, a little bit longer, there's not as
much of anonus. I'm putting the ball into play and
keeping it in the right spots because it's not as
fast and firm as it played in the month of May.
I think there's reason to look at the guys who
(06:08):
are the best players, and so I'm starting my card
with Colin Morrikala this week. I know that excuse me,
it was a bit of a herder for Morikawa last week,
but he was doing the Tiger thing for most of
the weekend, which is get into the lead, essentially, give
everybody else the heisman, give them a little bit of
(06:28):
a stiff arm, keep everybody else at arm's length. He
did that until Russell Henley pulled off a miraculous shot
that nobody saw on TV on the sixties ult when
he chipped in for eagle. If that shot goes three
inches to the left or three inches to the right,
it goes flying past the hole, maybe off the green.
We're talking about Morrikala trying to go back to back
after winning by three last week. Instead, the whole narrative
(06:50):
has switched to Morrikala not having won in the last
year and a half. But I still think he's really close.
The TBC Sawgrass will test every aspect of a player's
He's got to have all fourteen clubs working, strokes gain
total is the greatest barometer of performance that we have
on the PGA Tour well number one so far this year,
in the last two and a half months, it's Colin
(07:12):
Morcow He's playing the best golf of anybody. And I
know wins are important, I know trophies are a thing
everybody looks at, but this is how we measure performance
in golf, and he's played better than anybody else so far.
So well.
Speaker 5 (07:24):
Any exposure to Justin Thomas this week, he has one
here in the past, as you mentioned a few minutes ago,
had been rolling here to start this season this year,
three top tens, and then he kind of had a
really rough weekend at the Arnold Palmer a week ago.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
I don't have any exposure to JT. And it's not
because I don't like him. It's more just a numbers
game for me, and just guys in that top tier
that I like better. So I mentioned Markala, I really
like it. Deckie Matsuyama, who already won this year at
the Century, the season opener. He's been playing really well,
and most players it's such a volatible golf course, and
(07:59):
most players have a spotty record at TBC Sawgrass, whereas
Matsuyama has played here nine times, seven top twenty five,
four top tens, including the last two years. He was
the leader after the first round in twenty twenty when
it was canceled due to COVID nineteen starting, and so
the golf gods might owe him a little something on
that one as well, if you're into that. So I
(08:19):
like him, and I have a little bit of Patrick
Cantley as well. So at some point you can't just
litter the top of the board with like outright picks
of everybody. So it's not a matter of not liking
JT as much. It's just like I said, a numbers
game and I just couldn't fit him onto the card.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
First, so bo, don't tell me what to do with
my bank roll. And secondly, oh Bert eighth in his
player's debut last year, and I mentioned him as being
near the top of the odds board at sixteen to one.
And maybe you can get a better price elsewhere if
you shop it around. But this just sort of feels
like a guy that you know, over the last several months,
(08:56):
dating back to kind of late in last year's tour season,
that people are just trying to will to a big win,
Like people just you know, want to see obairg get
a trophy at you know, at one of these significant events.
What's your take on him here?
Speaker 4 (09:14):
So I feel like he's got a trophy at a big
event the Jennerson now his big as a major championship
or the players, but that was a big signature event
that he won three weeks ago, and yeah there's a
trophy involved, But there's another tournament four weeks from now
that has a certain piece of clothing that I'd like
to target Ludwig for I remember, yeah, he was eighth
(09:37):
of the players last year in his debut, but he's
also second at the Masters in his debut, and so
I get like, maybe maybe that's just me. Maybe I'm
just weird. I don't know if how other people do this,
but especially in golf betting, where I'm like, Okay, I'm
targeting a guy for four weeks from now. I'm not
gonna play him now because I don't want to preemp myself,
like I don't want to be right now, I want
(09:58):
to be right later. And so I'm not playing him
to help because I think he's gonna peak when we
get to AUGUSTA that has no bearing whatsoever on how
Loudsig will play this week. He doesn't care that I
don't have a ticket on him. He doesn't know that
I don't have a ticket on him. But I'm still
gonna wait another month until we get to the year's
first major.
Speaker 5 (10:15):
How about in the top twenty market. Someone that I'm
looking at this week is Jason Day Good good course
history here. He's been playing really well this year so far.
I reunited with a swing coach right before last week
and he comes out with it T whaty I've finished
it in eighth. So I'm looking at Jason Day for
a top twenty.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
I like Jason Day. I think long term, to move
back to Colin Swat and his old swing coach and
a guy that was like a father figure to him
is going to be really beneficial. I still think that
when I hear a guy working with a swing coach,
whether it's for the first time or whether it's a
new thing, or whether it's going back to an old
coach like he is, I still feel like there's some
(10:53):
volatility there. I still feel like there's a little bit
of a learning process and it's going to take a
little while. So we saw last week he opened with
a seventy six shot sixty four in round two at
bay Hill, and so there's gonna be some ups and downs.
I do like Jason Dd've got Jason the FS lineups
and things like that, guys for top twenties that I
do like in that similar kind of mid tier. Daniel
(11:14):
Berger is playing some great golf right now. Anyone you
talk to on the PGA Tour when the Ryder Cup
comes up, they say, oh, Daniel Berger is going to
be on that team. I mean, it's not even a question.
When they talk about him, they're saying he's playing so well.
In fact, his last four starts we talked about having
to be well rounded at TVC Sawgrass, he is positive
(11:34):
strokes gained in all four major categories in those last
four starts, so he's do everything really well. Another guy
I like in that range, Maverick mcneely's been playing some
very good golf. I don't know what happened last Friday,
shot in eighty in the second round at bay Hill,
missed the cut, but I feel like that was just
a little bit of an outlier, and his price is
a little bit longer right now than it would have
(11:55):
been had he made the weekend. So I like Maverick mcneillly.
He was top ten here last and Denny McCarthy. We
often talked about the world's best ball strikers, and the
top three last week Henley Morricala Conners are great examples.
They don't have to be the best putter in the field,
They just have to be above average because their ball
striking is so good. McCarthy is the exact opposite. He's
(12:17):
the best putter on the PGA Tour. His ball striking
doesn't need to be great, it just needs to be
pretty good, and it's been pretty good. He's actually game
strokes with ball striking with the Irons in five or
six starts this year, and four of those six have
been signature events, and so it's not like he's beating
up on inferior fields. He's playing against the best of
the best and hitting the ball better than more than
(12:39):
half of them. So I like Denny McCarthy a lot
in miss market as well.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
I want to squeeze in a couple more, but we
don't have a lot of time, so I'll end it
with this, and it doesn't deal with the Players Championship.
But obviously not huge news necessarily, just give him where
he is in his life and career. But big news
in the golf world obviously is the latest set back
an injury for Tiger Woods. You know, he has this
now surgery for the ruptured achilles and he's in all
(13:08):
likelihood going to miss the rest of the season, let
alone obviously the Masters. He turns fifty at the end
of this year, and you know, not like anyone expects
Tiger to win again at a high level and that's
been the case for you know, at least a few
years now. But there is still just the name and
excitement that comes along with it whenever he is able
(13:29):
to get out there and participate in a significant event.
So what's next for Tiger Woods in your estimation?
Speaker 4 (13:39):
So, Adam a few things here. First of all, as
Tiger was on the line with us, I'm not sure
why not you should have called me, have nothing else
to do. I'm not sure that Tiger could answer that
question himself right now. I don't know that he knows
what's next. He's gonna turn fifty in December, and he's
want to go play the Senior Tour next year? Does
you want to try to get back and play the
major championships? I don't know. The second part of this
is it's fair to question this. The desire is still there. Look,
(14:03):
anyone who's worked at a very high level in their
field for three decades at some point says, you know what,
I just want to enjoy the fruits of my labor.
I don't really want to go out there and grind anymore.
And I know that Tiger's considered not just the greatest
player of all time. We're you know, in the top
two at least, but the hardest worker of all time
(14:23):
as well, because he's come back from so many injuries.
If Tiger wants to sit back and say, you know what,
I've been there, done that. I just don't want to
try to come back from another surgery. It takes so
much out of me. I think that's fair. I think
it's a fair question to ask. And the other part
of this, and I've been saying this here, I just
tried that. And he doesn't just have to get healthy again,
(14:46):
doesn't just have to find his swing, doesn't just have
to be able to play good golf and walk four days.
He's got to go beat Scottie Scheffler and Rory mcloy
and Xander Schoffli and all these other great players that
we're talking about, guys who are half his age in
some instances. That's a really difficult past. And you know,
Tiger doesn't want to come back and finish in forty
third place every week. If he's going to come back
and he's going to work at it, he wants to
(15:07):
go out and win trophies again. I just think it's
a very difficult proposition for him to go and out
go out and beat all these guys in their primes.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
Right now, Jason Soble once again newly of CBS Sports
h Q brand ambassador for bet MGM, and of course
it's a show over on series x MPGA Tour Radio.
He is on Twitter at Jason Sobl Golf. Jason, thanks
so much. As always, You're gonna need to cut something
out of your bio because I'm exhausted reading all of
this every single time. Thanks for hopping on man again.
(15:37):
Masters major seasons right around the corner.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
I will do my best to get fired by as
many people as right.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Gu Sobl always a pleasure. We love him clearly,