Will Real Celtics Show Up for Game 6 in Philadelphia, Betting Tips for AT&T Byron Nelson

May 10, 2023: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guests Matt Meiselman (@valuebettingmm) from the Value Betting discord and the Action Network's Jason Sobel (@jasonsobeltan). Meiselman offers Celtics props to bet as the team faces elimination in Philadelphia, plus gambling tips for the Red Sox. Sobel outlines his favorite outrights, top 20 picks, and matchup bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson. And, the People's Parlay stays HOT!

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Now wr KO presents Boston's only nightlysports betting show, The Gambler, with
Adam Kaufman covering spreads, props,parlays and more. The Gambler starts now
Here's Adam Kaufman. Boy. Ifeel like I need to open the show
with an apology. I'm sorry tothe New York Knicks, who I truly

(00:24):
thought, especially after Julius Randall's commentsabout the Heat simply wanting it more,
I really didn't think the Knicks headswere in it, even being at home
at Madison Square Garden, an iconicplace, an incredible place to play,
an incredible atmosphere, especially in theplayoffs, I really thought they were just

(00:44):
dead and buried. And I stillthink they're gonna lose the series, but
I thought it was going to endin Game five tonight. So credit the
Knicks for fighting, credit them forwinning, Credit them for not cowering for
turtling. When the Heat one gotoff to a hot start, very low
scoring first quarter twenty four fourteen infavor of the Heat, you would have

(01:07):
thought the over was dead and buried. But no, the Over found a
way to hit by a fairly comfortablemargin. So I hope you played it.
I know I did. I lovedthose low overs. I think it
was like two o nine and ahalf or something like that when I bet
it. But the Knicks they stormedback in the second quarter. Heat went
on a run in the third quarter. After the Knicks really took a comfortable
lead, getting up by double digits, they just would not go away.

(01:32):
Jimmy Butler's crew does not go away. Although it wasn't Jimmy Butler tonight,
and the Knicks played basically even withthe Heat in the fourth quarter, got
a bunch of free throws and founda way to close this thing out.
One twelve, one oh three.I am Adam Kaufman. I am sorry,
not only to the Knicks for disrespectingthem, but also to Dan Watkins
who was here, who unfortunately hadMiami. I had Miami on the money

(01:56):
line, so I definitely lost that, but he had Miami at plus four
points. It didn't work out.Yeah I did, and I also had
Miami first half money line, andthat three pointer was absolutely brutal with point
six seconds left. Yeah, justa total just a weird game from the
Heat tonight. I mean, Iguess it's finally to be expected. That
they are gonna, you know,come back down to earth at some point,

(02:17):
right, But that second quarter wasjust abysmal from them. They're up
twenty four to fourteen. They letthe Knicks go on this crazy run.
Then they come out at halftime andjust where ice cold let the Knicks kind
of take this game over. AndI thought my plus four was dead in
the in the third, but thenthey came back and I got it close
in the fourth quarter before this oneended. But Adam just an absolutely crazy

(02:38):
thought. A team showing up athome in Game five and winning. Now
we've seen the past two home teambut listen, Dan, this time the
Knicks, their backs were against thewall Celtics. That's their turn. Now
I realized they won't be at home. They'll be in Philadelphia tomorrow night.
We will talk plenty about Game six, I assure you throughout this show.
But now they are the ones onthe brink of elimination. We'll get to

(02:59):
that. But I think a littledeeper on this heat game because I always
like to play the props. Onewell, this wasn't even a part of
my props. But I'm just Idon't know. I see numbers like this
and I just I shake my head. Kevin Love doing his best Al Horford
impression, going oh for seven fromthree point range. Good god, in
only sixteen minutes of work. ButJimmy Butler, well, I'll get to

(03:21):
Jimmy Butler in a second. Bamout of Bio what I wanted to say.
I have done this in multiple games. There's no such thing as free
money, but it feels like anauto hit. Why my god, Bam
Butler's what I want to call him. Bam out of bio. The fifteen
eight parlay fifteen points, eight rebounds. The fifteen eight parlay. I've done
it multiple games, and it reallydoes feel virtually automatic. It seems to

(03:46):
hit every single time I play it. It is hitting consistently here in the
playoffs. I think it hits insomething I have four or five six straight
games or something like that. Iwould encourage you play it next time around.
The fifteen eight parlay points rebounds forBam a bio. He does enough,
he's involved enough, and these arenot high milestone achievements for him.
They're they're fairly consistent to what hedoes. Like tonight he had eighteen and

(04:08):
eight, so you know, gotup by the skin of his teeth.
But that's what he tends to do. He's always, you know, in
that in that general space. WhatI was starting to say with Jimmy Butler,
how what I don't get? AndI realized they were already up three
one. It was an opportunity toput the Heat the Knicks away. It
wasn't like, you know, adoo or die situation or anything like that.
We might have two more games inthe series. Who knows what I

(04:30):
do not get If you're the MiamiHeat, if you're Eric Spolstra, and
especially if you're Jimmy Butler, howwith an opportunity he'd give yourself some rest
and step on the Knicks throats andend this game? How do you only
take twelve shots? Yeah? Howdoes that happen? I mean he had
nineteen points. He had an efficientish night five out of twelve, but

(04:54):
he had nine assists, seven rebounds, four steals, two blocks filled out
the box score. So if he, you know, took certain numbers,
you did okay. If you tookhis points, you took his points,
you got absolutely killed. And Ihad him in multiple parlays, even just
getting in some cases to twenty pointsto twenty five points the over twenty seven
and a half or twenty eight anda half, whatever it was, it
sunk me everywhere. Jimmy Butler,I would have thought, I really and

(05:17):
this is you bet with your heartsometimes I guess, but also intellectually I
would have thought, sure thing,Jimmy Butler. I'm not saying goes for
fifty or even necessarily goes for thirty, but mid to high twenties. Jimmy
Butler goes off in an opportunity toput a team away, right, and
he didn't do it. No,he didn't. And Jimmy Butler didn't even

(05:39):
have to have a crazy night tonight. They were getting Duncan Robinson to give
him seventeen points five three pointers,giving me flashbacks to the bubble from a
few years ago. There's a lessonin that too. By the way,
can I just say I'm sorry tocut you out. But Duncan Robinson,
who had been you know, he'sgotten his minutes off the bench, but
he certainly had not been a factorin this series in any way, shape

(06:00):
or form, and tonight placed twentytwo minutes, six of thirteen, but
five of ten from three goes forseventeen points. Didn't it kind of make
you think back to last night justa little bit to say, Man Celtics
could really use a Duncan Robinson gamein the form of Peyton Pritchard or Sam
Houser, like break from the norm, break outside of what generally works for

(06:20):
you, because you don't have aspark and you're just trying to figure it
out. Maybe let's dust another guyoff and go for it. I know
he's part of their rotation, theygo eight dp's. He is a guy
who sees minutes, so it's notthe same thing as a Pritchard or a
Houser. But I'm just thinking sparkplug or potential microwave off the bench,
guy who can just start launching itfor you, and if he's hot,

(06:42):
it can work out in a bigway. And it didn't for the heat
tonight. They still lost, buthe's one of the only guys that really
gave them something. While obviously JalenBrunson was going nuclear on the other side
and RJ. Barrett had himself agreat night and Julius Randall was efficient with
limited shots. Head twenty four pointsdidn't do anything on the glass, so
killing people's prop bets there as well. Even if you took him at like
all six and a half, youonly get five, never mind the eight

(07:04):
and a half line. But Idon't get, and maybe to some degree
that's a segue to what we shouldexpect tomorrow when Philadelphia Dan I don't get
from a coaching perspective. We talkeda lot about it last night when Peyton
Pritchard came in, didn't touch theball, came out, and then he
comes into the end in garbage timeand he and Hauser start hitting threes and

(07:24):
meaning laces didn't matter. The gamewas over. But I don't get how
you don't go to guys like thatin the same way that Spolster started to
lean on Duncan Robinson just a littlebit tonight, right, No, I
think, look, when it comesto the Celtics Joe Missoula, for me,
he's on the list of issues,but he's nowhere near the top of
the list. But I think tonightwe saw what good coaching can do at

(07:46):
Lee. Tom Thibodeau I thought hada really good game tonight. He really
took control of that game in Spolstermade his adjustments too throughout down the stretch
there to get the heat back intoit, and I think the Celtics could
use a little bit of that.They need a better guiding hand here as
we go forward. Red Sox wontheir game. They were underdogs in Atlanta.
I played him on the money line. I always will, just out
of blind loyalty. I will playthe Red Sox or not play them,

(08:09):
but I certainly won't play against them. I will always play the over,
and that bit me tonight very rarely. It didn't hit. I think the
over was nine and a half orten. They had seven combined these two
teams to five to win. Butit was a Red Sox win, and
so hey, we celebrate that.The losing streak is over. A couple
of hits out of you know,durand cast us at a home run his
fifth of the year, A couplerbi for him. It was late,

(08:31):
you know, it was just kindof icing on the cake. Really good
pitching performance out of Brian Bayo.His I had him on the under four
and a half kase. He hadfive in his six innings. I mainly
it's not that he doesn't have astrikeout potential. I just wasn't expecting him
to go six innings and that ultimatelyis what did it? And I think
I scanning my betting slips quickly.I think I was bitten by the hook

(08:54):
on maybe five or six strikeout propstoday. It was really unfortunate that that
could have gone the other way.And we'll see at the end of the
night. I never do this onthe show, not for any reason other
than I just like to wait untilthe night is complete, and that doesn't
happen until after midnight. But Ilike to look and see, you know,

(09:15):
I'll track the bets as they gothroughout the day, but I like
to look and see the grand total, you know, was a positive negative?
You know what was the ROI howdid it all shake out? How
was my day? So I don'tstress over it and get stupid and try
to you know, I'm down abunch and I try to buy money back
or something like that. That Iguess is one way that I try and
protect myself. Last night proved tobe a break even night. It was

(09:37):
a great night in the DFS streetsfor any Daily Fantasy people out there was
a really good night in the DFSstreets. I hope tonight is the same
case as well. But from afrom a betting perspective, it was a
break even night, but we gota lot. We got a lot riding
still tonight on this game that isgoing on. The Warriors and Lakers are
just underway. That game is inSan Francisco, and you've got the Warriors

(10:01):
who are there early a few minutesin. They're up eight to three,
but they're on the brink of elimination, the defending champs trying to survive against
the Lakers. There are some variousprops and numbers we're watching in that one.
We will see hockey wise, theMaple Leafs. I had Florida plus
one and a half, so thatworked out. Maple Leafs two one winners
earlier to extend that series to agame five. They're now down three to

(10:22):
one. We will certainly be watchingthe Golden Knights and Oilers. Part of
our people's parlay. Dan's leg alreadyhit earlier today. That was a money
line winning, a convincing one forEddie Rodriguez and the Detroit Tigers. But
a couple of props that we werewatching tonight in hopes of hitting yet another
show parlay is over one and ahalf total goals in the first period between

(10:45):
the Golden Knights and Oilers. It'sscoreless but only three minutes in, and
also under on the fourteen and ahalf rebound total, a line that did
move to down to thirteen and ahalf, but we got at fourteen and
a half and went under that forAnthony Davis tonight. So something that we
will be watching. We got alot of great stuff on the way during
these two hours. We will bejoined when we come back by Matt Meiselman

(11:05):
from the Value Betting Discord. Wewill talk basketball and baseball with him,
two of his specialties. Get toknow his discord a little bit better as
well when we have him on acouple segments during this hour. We will
also get a leg from him tobuild out a people's parlay for tomorrow.
And in the second hour, we'llhave my good buddy Jason Sobel on Golf
Rider for Action Network and Sirius XM. He's all over the place. He'll

(11:30):
join us. We'll talk about theat and T buyer Nelson. We can
look ahead to the PGA Championship aswell, which is next week. So
there's this is gonna be a funshow if you want to be part of
it. Six one, seven,two six six six eight six eight.
That is six one seven two sixsix six eight six eight. Dan Watkins
is here. Meiselman on the way, EJ Pacheco our producer. I'm Adam
Kaufman. This is the Gambler withAdam Kaufman on w RKO. Sick and

(11:54):
tired of bold sports talk and wantto get right into the action. Gambler
with Adam Kaufman. As you coveredcall us now with six one seven two
six six six eight six eight.That's six one seven two six six six
eight six eight. The Gambler withAdam Kaufman will be right back after this
on WRKO. It's the Gambler withAdam Kaufman. That's me. Dan Watkins

(12:22):
is here as well. EJ.Pacheco, our producer, and we're gonna
go to the guest line. Welcomein my pal Matt Meiselman from the Value
Betting Discord. You can find himon Twitter at Value Betting MM. Those
are his initials, so easy enoughto find him. And he's really good
at this, folks. In fact, he is. We celebrate this all
the time, don't we, Maddie. He is one of the only people

(12:45):
on planet Earth I think who wasbetting the Celtics last year to win the
East, to win a championship whenthey were under Emayo Dooca back in the
early days of January, and theywere mediocre at best. Let alone had
begun to figure it out, andhe just kept doubling down, putting more
and more money in. It wasa very good basketball season for Matt Meiselman
betting on the Celtics last year.And I say that to say this,

(13:07):
Matt, do you bet much onthem this year? How you feeling about
this team? Well, I seewhy you've brought me on here, because
the Celtics positive mojo, I guesscame entirely formediate last year and right now
you guys definitely need it. Yeah. Before the season, the Celtics were
the favorites to win the NBA Championshipthis year, so I didn't really bet

(13:31):
much, although when we found outEmbiid was going to miss at least the
beginning of this series, I gotsome conference bets in, I got some
series bets in, actually laid acouple of games on the series spread.
So those are all toasts. Now. It has not been good since,
I mean really including Game one.So is it coaching. I don't know,
Like I'm not really sure what's goingon with Boston. I still think

(13:54):
they're certainly live to win the series. Like they're favored in Game six,
they'll obviously be favored in Game seven. Winning both of them is a tall
order, but yeah, they justI mean, this series has been so
weird. We've seem like the bestversion of James Harden and the worst version
of James Harden. From a bettingperspective, I'm not sure what to do
for this upcoming game, but yeah, it's been a confusing last couple of

(14:16):
games for Boston. Well that's whereI'm going to force you to go though,
because we are looking ahead obviously toGame six coming up on Thursday,
and about what twenty one hours fromnow, I think it tips off and
there's been movement. Celtics opened there'sone or one and a half point favorites.
Now it's been bet up to twoand a half. The overunder has
actually gone down a little bit.I guess they're expecting more of a defensive

(14:37):
presence in this game. It openedto two fourteen and a half, it's
down to two twelve and a half. Looking at Vison just based on the
Draft King Sports Book. Most ofthe money by a considerable margin, A
good chunk of the handle, wellover fifty percent, is on the over
Celtics. You've got about a sixtyforty split ish on the spread, and
as far as the money line,pretty much the same thing as well,

(15:01):
handle wise bet wise, though moreof the money is on the Sixers in
this one. So what is yourthought process, because I agree it is
it feels, even locally watching probablymuch more of this team than you do,
it feels impossible to get a readon what this team is going to
do in Game six. Yeah,so this situation in particular, I think

(15:22):
is more difficult than most. Imean, the playoffs present a unique challenge
where you have guys playing hurt morethan in the regular season. Like when
a beat is dealing with right now, he would not be playing if this
was a regular season week. SoI use, and I'm sure we've talked
about this before, but for peoplewho don't know I use. The model
I have is sort of like ratingsbased, but also a little bit subjective.

(15:46):
So I'm taking the numbers using theRaptor ratings at five thirty eight and
scaling them for the minutes projections fromaround the DFS industry, and then adding
manual adjustments for things like home courtand travel level, but also motivation because
we know that teams that lose inthe playoffs are more motivated in the in
the subsequent game. We know thatif a team is down to three zero

(16:07):
in a series, they actually losemotivation. But then I'm adjusting for the
health of players and quantifying Joel Embiad'sknee health. It's just not something anyone
can do with like a very preciseaccuracy level, Like it's just hard to
know. I think he's gotten healthieras this series has progressed, but he

(16:29):
shot under fifty percent in every gamehe's played, like he is not one
hundred percent yet, So I stillthink that's the case. So I'll kind
of leave it at I'll give youthe numbers of what I would have if
Embid were fully healthy and if hewere not playing, because I think the
truth is somewhere in between. IfEmbid were fully healthy right now, I
think the Sixers would deserve to belike two point favorites in this game,

(16:52):
So that would be four and ahalf points off from the line. And
if embiid were out entirely. Ithink the Celtics should be like four point
favorite, So Embid is probably abouta six point impact from his full health
to no one beat at all ina playoff series where he's playing more minutes
than he would in the regular season. I think we're getting about a half
strength Embid, Like he's looked betterthan I think you would probably argue he's

(17:17):
been better than half strength, buthe is not shot well and his defense
has been good, So I don'tknow. It's kind of hard to use
like four games as the sample,but I think we're getting Embiid two to
three points worse in terms of hisrating than what we were getting in the
regular season. So all that addsup for me where I think the Celtics
should be small favorites. I thinkthere is some value on Philly as a

(17:40):
two and a half point underdog.I think there is some value plus one
twenty or so on the money line, but if I'm picking it, you
know, if both teams were evenmoney, I do actually lean Boston,
so it's really just the number.Like I think that that's opening line of
one one and a half was prettymuch right, and I think it's gotten
a little too high, So I'mnot super excited to bet. But if
we get to a three or threeand a half with like, you know,

(18:03):
maybe there's a lot of self expensebetting the Celtics. Maybe the narrative
how they bounced back in series reallywell, like maybe that picks up.
If the line gets to three threeand a half, I'll have to take
Billy. But I do think Bostonshould win this game. I just do.
I think it's going to be close. Hey, Matt, I want
to talk about Jason Tatum for aminute. This is Dan Watkins, by
the way, Nice to meet it, Thanks for coming on. Tatum obviously

(18:26):
named to the All NBA First TeamWednesday night. I'm looking at his first
quarter total for points here in thisone, and I'm looking at the under
at plus money. He's all fortwo or o for ten in his last
two first quarters of this series infour points total over the past two games
and games four in Game five,all of them coming at the free throw
line. What do you make ofthis play? What's the line of seven

(18:48):
and a half? Sorry? Okay, So I'm generally I'm more familiar with
the first quarter rotations, like someguys will play six minutes and then rest
for a couple minutes and come backin. I think that is the case
for Tatum. Um. I wonderthough, with the Celtics like obviously needing
to win this game, do wesee Tatum play more minutes? So he

(19:11):
played all twelve okay, so theywere already desperate. It didn't work out
for him, ye, Matt,Yeah, I know, And this is
giving me like so much PTFD fromlast year's finals. Like the unfortunate thing
for me is I'm not a Celticsfan. So there's nothing the Celtics can
do ever that will make up forwhat happened last year. For you guys

(19:33):
as Celtics fans, if they wina championship, like you won't care about
last year anymore. It'll make upfor me. There will never be a
mother last year. Um yeah,I'm on the fence from the Tatum first
quarter, Like I do think heshould have a bounce back game, but
um yeah, like playing twelve minutes, should he get seven and a half
points? Like that seems right aroundhis average? So I'm just not sure,

(19:55):
Like he has started slow, butI feel like he may use that
as something, you know, totry to wake himself up because of that,
Like he knows that's the case.So for me, it's probably a
stay away. It's an interesting angle, like I'm not sure what it is
about him that would make him startflow, but maybe the Sixers are just
playing better defense earlier in games likeit could just be that. So,
you know what, I really likeMatt sort of along those Jason Tatum lines.

(20:17):
And I bet this in the previousgame and it hit and I don't
remember exactly what the number was.I think it might have been forty three
and a half. And I'm talkingabout points rebounds assists. It's forty four
and a half p r A inthis next game. And maybe there's a
little bit of betting with my heart, but I do believe, as I

(20:37):
put it earlier in the previous segment, betting intellectually as well. I just
I refuse to believe that for athird straight game Tatum is going to come
out and go oh for seven,oh for eight, over six whatever from
the field before he finally hits one. And I also just think backs against
the wall, coming off of beingnamed First team All NBA, something to

(20:57):
prove people, you know, hearingthe noise knowing that people are putting you
at the top of the blame list. If the Celtics get get shocked,
get upset by the Sixers. Imean I would be tempted to go over
on all of the key props withJason Tatum. You know, the points.
It's probably twenty eight and a halfor something like that. I'd have
to pull it up. The reboundsare probably you know, eight and a

(21:18):
half, nine and a half.But but you're sort of quote unquote safe
spot. Just to balance it outis the pra In fact, I might
even look at his alt pra andand bet it up a little bit.
I'll pull it up right here,just to see what our options are.
You could go you can go allthe way up to you know, you
go to forty five and a half, you start to get into plus money.

(21:40):
If you think he's gonna go off, you know, really go off.
You know, I don't know,forty seven and a half some combination
of those three you're into almost plusone fifty. So what do you think
of that? Is it would itbe a smart play or is it like
a Celtics homer play. It couldbe, It's possible. It's certainly the
Celtics homer play, but it couldbe smart too, Like I do think

(22:00):
Tatum played forty minutes, and Iguess if the game had been closer,
he might have played forty three orforty four last game. I don't think
I'd be shocked if he played fortysix or more minutes in this game.
So for that reason, I'm interested. They do have to win, and
Tatum has the durability to play moreminutes. But so much of this is
three point shooting variants. Like Tatumcan be incredibly motivated and the shots aren't

(22:23):
falling, He's just not going toput up the huge scoring total. I
mean, he did go eleven fortwenty seven and still got to thirty six
points just because he's shot so much. So if we think he's getting that
kind of volume, it's a lotto bet any any over. But I
like, I don't think he cantake twenty seven shots. Like he may
be more motivated but just passing,or you know, just making smarter plays,

(22:45):
or we may get the Jalen Browntakeover that we occasionally get. So
I think if we hear something fromJoe Mozilla that Tatum is like somewhat likely
to play more minutes. If there'ssome sort of indication of at then I'm
super interested. And I do thinkthose alternate lines the plus money are better
because with a guy who's very dependenton threes, I mean he shot eleven

(23:07):
of him last game, you dohave more variance, Like he could end
up with twenty six points if he'scold, and he could end up with
forty six points and obviously some reboundsand assists if he's hot. So I
think there's just a really wide rangeof outcomes. And for that reason,
like, yeah, if you're goingto bet like an over forty eight and
a half at like plus two hundred, that's more appealing to me than just
the regular line. I do wonder, though, we'll could the Celtics mix

(23:30):
up the starting lineup for this gameoff of two consecutive losses alf Horford went
over seven, Like, could RobertWilliams get a start over Horford? Potentially
did the Celtics have that in thetank to make a change, because obviously
that could affect Tatum's props too ifthey have a different, different lineup out
there. We can spend a littlemore time on this with Matt Meiselman when
we come back, he is fromthe Value Betting Discord. We'll also talk

(23:52):
a little baseball with him before welet him go before the end of the
hour, and we will tell himabout this in the second segment. Give
him an opportunity to prepare it alittle bit. But he can be part
of this show's people's parlay, whichI will tell you. We've got some
good news on that. We'll fillyou in when we get back. You're
on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.Any event about bad bets, you've come
to the right place, tell usabout it. Call six one seven two

(24:17):
six six six eight six at sixone seven two six six six eight six
eight, or if you're listening onthe iHeartRadio app, use the talkback button.
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman will beright back after this on WRKO.
One quarter in the books between theLakers and Warriors, Golden States ahead by

(24:40):
just four thirty two twenty eight.You got eight points by Draymond Greene of
all people, just three for Curry. Thompson has only three as well.
On the other side, it's beenall Anthony Davis, not on the glass
fortunate leave, but he's got thirteenpoints Lebron's been pretty quiet so far,
mainly deferring he has four points.Really has been just Davis on the inside.

(25:02):
He's six out of eight. Iwas gonna ask earlier if the Lakers
knew the game had started when theywere down seventeen to five, but they
have clawed back. Meanwhile, thatDavis under rebound prop fourteen and a half
is what we're keeping an eye on, and that can complete our people's parlay
for the show. Because two legsdown, two legs down, fire it

(25:22):
up, EJ. We Edmonton Oilers, No not. We needed two goals
between the Oilers and Golden Nights.We went over one and a half goals.
First period. It's three nothing Edmontonwith still just about four or five
minutes left in that opening period.Offense Galore. I hope you took the
over. I think it was sevengoals coming into this one. We were

(25:45):
advising last night. A. J. Schultz was on the show. We
were advising you play the over.I played the over. But we are
two legs down, and also Ijust I can't help it, celebrate it.
We're hoping to go four and twoon the People's parlay. Here as
we are sitting here in a show. But also if you played these bets
straight, if you just played thelegs straight, we are now up to

(26:07):
I think it's fifteen and two,fifteen and two with one to go,
so it's yeah, crazy and pressureson Meiselmann from the value betting discord.
He's going to be part of thepeople's parlay in the next segment. We'll
keep you on so we can dothat. Matt. What you're gonna need
to do, just to give youa preview, is you're going to need
to pick just one leg. I'lldo a leg. Down'll do a leg,

(26:29):
You'll do a leg. The requirementis that you have to play the
parlay. I don't care what bookyou use. I don't care if you
put a dollar on it or ahundred dollars on it. That is all
your business. But you're gonna haveto supply us a leg that you believe
is going to hit tomorrow. Areyou up for the challenge? I guess
so. I mean fifteen and twois a lot of pressure. I had
no idea there's this kind of hotfreak happening here, but absolutely, I

(26:52):
mean, you've heard me talk aboutthis. My thoughts on parlay is a
very day by day, but Ican certainly provide a bet that is good.
I look forward to that while we'redoing a little bit of basketball.
Obviously the Celtics and Sixers generally areour focus, but not the only game

(27:12):
in town, so to speak.We've got I'm just pulling up. Obviously,
we've got this game that's going on, you know, currently, this
Warriors Lakers game. I don't knowif there's any interest from a live betting
perspective for you, but quite frankly, just looking ahead, I'm more interested
in your feelings about the Nuggets andSons tomorrow night. Denver has the vast
majority of the handle. Most ofthe bets. People are kind of split

(27:34):
in terms of the total in thisgame, money line tends to go to
the Denver side, even at plusmoney. Do you believe in Phoenix the
Nuggets are going to put this away? Yeah? I think this line is
too high. So it was threeand a half. I actually bet Denver
plus three and a half. Whenwe found out a couple hours ago that
Chris Paul is officially not playing,I think everyone kind of speculated that it

(27:57):
didn't seem like Paul was going tobe ready he's been ruled out so far
in advance of all of these games. He hasn't been questionable. He hasn't
been a game time decision. They'reruling him out like well before each of
these, so he's not going tobe playing. We also have the undery
eighton questionable. He'll probably play,but maybe limited. So I do like
Denver. I don't know if theywin, but I do like them with

(28:18):
the points. Like if we lookat Game four, which was essentially the
same situation, but Denver was maybejust a little bit more motivated. The
Nuggets opened at plus three and ahalf for that game begin closed to pick
him. I don't know if we'llsee that here, but I do think
the line will drop a little bitwhere maybe Denver's only favored or homemade underdog
by like two or one and ahalf by the start of the game.

(28:41):
That's about where I think it shouldbe. So if you can, I
think there may be a site ortwo that I was plus three and a
half, even a plus three.Though I like Denver. I've been pretty
high on Denver for the playoffs,like future betting purposes. I thought they
were a better team than Phoenix,even if Chris Paul was healthy. I
mean, we're never going to findthat out, but I think that Denver

(29:02):
is potentially the best team in theNBA right now, So yeah, like
they should not be underdogs by thismuch. And then if it gets to
a Game seven, I'll probably betthem for that too. So in the
interest of time more normally, I'dlike to really kind of bounce around the
diamond with you and look at yourfavorite bets for Thursday and all of that,
but I'm just kind of curious yourthoughts on the Red Sox right now.

(29:25):
From a betting perspective, I alwaysus it's not really a joke.
I was gonna say, make thejoke, but it's it's it's very truthful.
I always say bet the over onBoston games, and no, there's
no guarantee it will hit. Itdidn't hit tonight, but you will come
up profitable by the end of theseason. It will hit more often than
not, and that has certainly beenthe case so far. What is your
view of the Socks when it comesto betting on that team? So,

(29:48):
I actually you should have me ona week ago, because my biggest baseball
bet of the season was last Thursday. When Kevin Gasman pitched in Boston,
the Red Sox had opened like PLUone forty and the line got up to
one e. And I tend tojust ignore recent trends. And Kevin Gausman
was coming in with like twenty fourstrikeouts and no earned runs over as prior

(30:08):
to games, But that just doesn'tmatter to me. I'm going off like
more historical data and more like alarger sample size. And I just used
what the bat, which is DerekCarti's projection system. You can find it
at Fanographs, you can find itat rotor grinders. I'm basically just using
what his numbers say. And therewas a lot of value on the Red
Sox for several games when they weren'twinning, and this tends to happen in

(30:32):
baseball a lot. As the teamwins, you just lose value because people
start betting them to line shrink.But in a lot of those games,
I was betting Boston team total overs, not so much the game total overs,
because I do think this lineup isa little bit underrated, so the
market is probably caught up a bitwhere it's not as interesting anymore. But
rooting for the Red Sox offense hadbeen good. I actually didn't have them

(30:55):
tonight, so it been a nicetime to have them. But over the
last week or two, it's beenreally good to be backing the Red Sox
offense. Right now. I don'tthink they're overvalued. I just kind of
think the market is where it shouldbe on them. In we've only got
a minute maybe too before we getto hit the break and then we'll do
the people's part lay on the otherside. But just tell the people a

(31:15):
little bit. I don't think youknow. Obviously, big betters and regular
betters more than casual betters certainly knowthis. But novices that are listening to
the show, people that are newto this since state legalization on mobile a
couple of months ago, may notrealize all the information that is available to
them in discords and how to finddiscords and what discord even is and how

(31:36):
it works. What are the servicesthat you provide to people. So I'm
still have mind for free. I'mfiguring out how to best give people baseball
information right now because there's not justmoney lines in totals. There's there's so
many different props you can bet inbaseball. I think more than almost any
other sport, So I'm trying tofigure out how to sort through that.

(31:57):
But right now the scord I haveis at Value Betting. You can find
it on my Twitter account add ValueBetting MM and it's basically just an ability
for people to ask questions either tome or to other people that are there
and kind of like talk through certainthings, so I can post pics where
I can post probabilities. I alsohave an MBA rating spreadsheet that I just

(32:21):
have a link on my Twitter accounttoo, so people can see that and
then go into the discord and talkto each other or ask me what something
means, or we can see thatnews is breaking and they can say like
what they think, or they cantry to get my feedback in real time.
So I'm kind of just in theremost of the day, and it
just gives you better access to realtime feedback if you're trying to make a
bet, like if someone wants tobet something they just saw. Sometimes if

(32:44):
you tweet at somebody, they maynot see it right away. In discord,
it's just quicker, So I thinkthat's really the biggest benefit of it.
Will you be able to stop butor tell me how to stop losing
k prompts by the hook because itseems to happen to me often to set
more unders. That's generally what I'mdoing. Like most people bet overs,

(33:04):
and I honestly, I would saymost strikeout props are half a strike out
too high or a quarter of astrikeout too high, because they know people
liked to bet over, so theyjust make them a little too high.
And the hand up coming in,yeah, like this is that is a
very unsurprising comment to hear for you. So that's how you do it,
fair enough, I am drawn tothe over all. Right, we're gonna
step aside. Misle woman is goingto rejoin us on the other side to

(33:25):
finish out the hour with the People'sparlay looking to go improved to four and
two hopefully tonight. We'll see howthat tracks. But we gotta get you
set up for a people's parlay fortomorrow. So get your picks ready,
to get your books ready, toget ready to play some bets. Misleoman's
going to help us out. Thisis the Gambler with Adam Kaufman, sick
and tired of bold sports talk andwant to get right into the action.

(33:47):
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Asyou covered, call us now with six
one seven two six six six eightsix eight. That's six one seven two
six six six eight six eight.Gambler with Adam Kaufman will be right back
after this is on WRKO. It'sthe Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Final segment

(34:08):
of the opening hour. Matt Meiselman'swith us from the Value Betting Discord.
It is time to build out thePeople's parlay for Thursday. So the way
this is going to work, I'vegot my book open, I'm ready to
place the bet. He will offera leg. He'll do it first,
then Dan, then I will offerone. The three of us you know,
well, we'll do it and we'llhope for the best, as we

(34:30):
always do each and every show.So Matt, that mine get us started.
What do you really like? AllRight? So I just gave you
this whole lecture about not betting overs, But I think my favorite baseball bet
tomorrow is actually an over. I'mgoing with over eight in the Padres Twins
game. The bet I just losttonight actually with a four three final.

(34:50):
But these teams are very home rundependent, both the Padres and Twins.
But I think in general, thePadres offense has been a little bit under
value since Tatis came back and Minnesotahas played I think to a pretty decent
hitters park. But Darbish is someonethat I think is just generally a little
bit overrated. Bailey Over for theTwins kind of the same thing, with

(35:12):
much less of a pedigree, butthe bat is projecting a little over ten
runs for this game. My concernis this game is one one PM,
so we may get someone out ofthe lineup that gets a day off.
But even if you know, let'ssay Bogarts doesn't play or something like that,
one key player out, I wouldstill like the over. It wouldn't
be that bad. And it's baseball. This isn't the NBA, so you
know, big time rest games aren'treally a huge concern. So that's my

(35:37):
pick. I think you can getminus one fifteen. I'm not sure which
book that is, but looks likeDraftings minus once twenty and a couple of
the sites are already up to eightand a half, so that one looks
pretty good to me. Dan.Yeah, you don't have to twist my
arm going against Bailey Over, that'sfor sure. So I like that pick
a lot, Matt, I'm gonnastick with baseball. I'm gonna go Tampa

(35:57):
Bay Ray's money line against the Yankeesin New York tomorrow night. Drew Ussmuson
on the Mount. He pitched reallywell against the Yankees on Saturday. Tampa
ended up losing that game three totwo. But I like a bounce back
here for the Rays. They've lostback to back games, which is crazy
for Tampa. This might be likethe first time all season that's happened.
I'd have to look back at that. They had a tough time in Baltimore.
So I like them to bounce backin New York against Domingo Herman and

(36:20):
the Yankees. And the Yankees theydid just sweep. They've won three in
a row, but they did justsweep Oakland, who is just absolutely pitiful.
So Yank, he's come back downto earth. Tampa bounces back,
So give me the raise money line. So I was thinking about offering a
prop. I was, especially afterMatt's under speech, and I will say
that attempting one for tomorrow for theGiants is Alex Cobb, just based on

(36:43):
the numbers that you can get him, Matt, and I think he's under
four and a half. But I'mnot gonna do it. If you want
to, you know, use itas a side, go right ahead,
I'm not going to do it.It just it makes me makes me a
little bit nervous because he's gone wellover that total multiple times this season.
So I would hate for often,as I'm bitten by the hook, I
would hate for that to sink inentire parlay. I think what I'm going

(37:05):
to do here, guys, isI'm just I'm having so much fun talking
pucks here. I think I'm gonnago back. I'm gonna look at this
Cracking Stars series. I can't believe. I cannot believe that we don't have
a seven over under, that it'sstill sitting at six despite it matching or
going over that every game of thisseries. You know, the Devil's and

(37:29):
Hurricanes is another temptation because that isalso at six, and it feels like
one of those two teams is puttingup five goals every single game. But
I think what I'm going to dois I'm gonna look at the NHL.
I'm gonna go Cracking Stars on theover and let me see where what that
does for me numbers wise, Infact, some books you can even find

(37:50):
it at five and a half still, so I'm definitely gonna do it.
And yeah, that puts us atover plus five hundred odds where I'm looking.
I got plus five thirty on DraftKingsis where I'm looking at this,
And I love how it took themfour games of this of this series,
hitting the over and every single oneto finally move the total a half a
half a goal, that's what ittook in this one. So that's what

(38:14):
I'm doing, Matt, get getready to place that bet, my friend.
So well, I mean, i'dlike to call on the Oilers game
three goals in the first period.That one looked pretty good, So I
can't really doubt you your hockey knowledgeafter that. Yeah, right, So
for for people out there that youknow are just catching up, the parlay
is over eight total runs between thePadres and Twins, the Rays Tampa Bay

(38:37):
Rays on the money line and overit. Maybe it's five and a half,
maybe it's six, depends what bookyou're looking at, but the over
total on goals between the Kraken andStars tomorrow night. And it's fun too
because with that game starting at ninethirty Eastern It'll be one that we can
all sweat together as well. SoI'm I'm gonna place the bet. I

(38:59):
always liked to round Abinant just forgiggles, so I'm going to do that
as well, hopefully cash in twiceand uh and and that's the move.
Very good, very good. Alot of attempting options all over the place
there tomorrow in terms of games too. You know, you could have gone
with the puck line on on theHurricanes is appealing, Caroline and money line

(39:19):
was my backup. Yeah. Thethe over in the in the Giants Diamondbacks
game tomorrow is another one, andjust pure homerism. I was considering going
with the Celtics on the spread,but I would have really felt bad if
that, if that sunk the parlay, so I couldn't do it. Yeah,
I was gonna say, you'd probablytrade uh all of the bets that
you place tomorrow for a Celtics win. So just let that one be separate.

(39:43):
Your fandom can be the Celtics,tam. You don't have to include
it here exactly. Yeah, Iknow this is not going to feel good
for boll. I mean, Idon't have to tell you you do not
have to tell me. I don'teven don't I don't even want you to
suggest it. Don't even put itout into the universe. Man, I'm
not ready for that right now.This is just this is just deja moved
from last here. But I'm breathinga little easier because it doesn't matter as

(40:07):
much. I'm just sad from lasthere. But for you, it's exactly
the same thing, dejav who accepttwo rounds later. All right, we
got to hit the break our numbertwo on the way. But Matt,
thank you so much for hopping on. We'll do it again, my friend.
Absolutely good talking to you, andgood luck tomorrow. Thank you very
much. Man. But where we'regoing to do our part, Matt Meiselman
from the Value Betting Discord. JasonSobel is going to talk golf with us

(40:30):
in our number two, Dan andI will be back. It's The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman. Welcome back toThe Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Let's get
to a guy who knows a thingor two about gambling, of course in
the world of golf, probably someother things as well. My good pal,
I've missed him, so Jason Sobelfrom the Action Network. Also,
you can hear him on Sirius XMPGAtour. He has been all over the

(40:52):
place and the man's just smart whenit comes to all the happenings on the
links, and I'm not so Ilike to lean on him. Jason,
how are you. I'm doing well. I appreciate you having me on at
peak drivetime at eleven twenty pm.This is perfect for me. What is
he? I can't remember where youlive. What is the time where you
are? It is eleven twenty I'min Tolando. I'm not that far from

(41:14):
I got roots up in Boston,down I retired down to Florida years ago,
as as all the olds do.Well, thank you for staying up
late with us. I was hopingI was bugging you on, you know,
at least in a different time zone. But this is this is true
loyalty. Thank you so much.Of course, no, I kid,

(41:35):
I'm happy to do it. Isaw that through social media that you had
started the show. I was waitingfor the call. I finally got the
call as all excited, so Icouldn't sleep anyway, so I was up
and ready to do it. Well, we will just pencil you in for
the PGA Championship preview one week fromtoday. But let's start with the at
and T Byron Nelson, my friend, which is well first, even before

(41:57):
we get into some specifics and outrightsin law shots and first round leaders in
any tournament matchups, whatever stuff wewant to talk about over the next segment
or two. We do have obviouslysome novices that are listening to this show,
with mobile betting legalized only in thelast couple of months in Massachusetts,
So when it comes to just generalstrategies for betting golf, what would you

(42:17):
advise people do? So my first, my first rule of thumb here whatever
anyone asked about this is, andthis goes really for any sport, anything
you're betting on, But decide whatkind of better you would like to be.
Decide what you're doing this for.Do you just want to make We
all want to make money, ofcourse, that's the whole point of this.

(42:38):
But do you only want to turna profit? Because if you do,
there's a way to do this golf. Any I know a lot of
people go, oh my god,so hard to pick one golfer who's gonna
win the golf tournament. But it'snot so hard to pick one player who's
going to finish in the top forty, or to pick one player to beat
one other player in a head tohead matchup. So there's ways we can
do this where okay, there's there'snot a turn of ROI, but we

(43:01):
can definitely turn a profit by beingsmart about what we're playing. That said,
if you're someone who goes, youknow what, I don't know,
I'll just starting some money out there. I want to have a lottery ticket.
I want to have a great sweaton a Sunday afternoon. I want
a chance to win some big moneyon a few long shot out rights.
Hey, you can do that too. Obviously, your hits are gonna be

(43:22):
much less, but the risk mightbe worth the reward because those do have
a huge return on investment if youplay one hundred hundred and fifty two hundred
to one player who's got a chanceto win on a Sunday afternoon. So,
in the spirit of identifying, likeyou said, the head to heads,
the tournament matchups, a couple ofpopular plays that I've seen today and

(43:43):
just by ROI perspective, because onecertainly has a better win percentage than the
other one. Hatting against Scheffler,and that's a plus money plus two hundred
odds. I'm seeing it or slightlyyou know, at minus one tenth,
so slightly below even money Kim againstDay. Do you how do you feel
about either of those? Or doyou have a favorite other than those?

(44:06):
You know, it's funny. Iwas actually just going through I was adding
to one a bed already, Iwas looking at matchups. So I'm sitting
there staring at Terrell Hutton against ScottieScheffler, and boy, I just I
can't pull the trigger. I've mostlyfaded Scheffler this week because his outright number
is ridiculous. He's plus three fifty. It's the week before a major championship.
So first of all, I'm notsure as fullhead is going to be

(44:29):
in the Byron Nelson. I mean, he's gonna be thinking ahead to the
PGA next week, oh kill inRochester, New York. Secondly, the
weather is not going to be greatthis week in Dallas, and so what
does that mean for Scottie Scheffler,Well, for any of these top players.
All of a sudden, you're sittingon a Friday afternoon. So the
grind didn't make the cut. Youget there on the weekend, it's like,

(44:50):
oh, you know, I could, I could kind of melt in
the last couple holes, get ona plane and be it that major championship
and not have to be here maybethrough Monday if there are a lot of
delays over the last couple of dayson the weekend, which is very very
possible based on the forecast, andso that's another reason. Then the last
reason has been twenty five under oneor two years ago at TPC Craig Ranch,

(45:13):
twenty six under last year. Essentiallyit turns into a birdie fest.
You've got to roll in a lotof putts. Scottie Scheffler is dead.
Even his strokes gained putting this seasonis point zero zero zero. He's exactly
even with everybody on the field onthe entire PG eight Tour. He's ninety
ninth in that ranking this year.And so it's not as if he's making

(45:36):
a ton of putts. Yes,he's a very good player, he's the
second best player in the world rightnow, but for the most part,
I'm stadium. All that said,those same things really apply to Terrell Hatton
as well. He played pretty welllast week, but again He's the type
of guy where he runs hot,he runs cold. He's a ton of
fun to watch. He's very entertainingif you haven't seen him on the golf

(45:58):
course, he's has emotional expressive aswe have on the PGA Tour right now.
But oh, I'm not sure Iwant to take that plus money bet
against Scottie Cheffler this week. Doyou have a favorite tournament bet for a
matchup bet or sorry? Yeah,So let's see, I had a few
of them earlier. So I justlooked at Christian be Zaiden who uh plus

(46:21):
money against uh Joseph Bramlett, Ibelieve um, which I doesn't even make
sense, but right, maybe there'sa few different books when I now you've
got me looking back at what Ijust did. It was don't don't get
lost in your betting slip. That'sthat's a dangerous place. I've got the

(46:42):
Zaden who in my book, theZadan knew it it plus money against Joseph
Bramlett. I'm telling you look atit right now, all right? So
uh yeah against Mcnelie. McNeeley isnot played great over the last couple of
months, is coming back from injury. So I still like that play if
you get it against Bramwot, Ido that too. Zaidan, who uh
puts really well and puts even betteron bent grass, screams, which is

(47:02):
what they're putting on this week.As for other ones, I hate to
say it because I like Aaron Wise. I think he's a really good player.
He's coming back after a seven weekabsence due to a little mental health
break. He didn't even go tothe Masters. You know, it's it's
got to be something really really botheringa player and for them to skip the

(47:23):
Masters and not go to August National. That's what he did. He's coming
back this week. I've got amatchup with Min wou Lee against Aaron Wise.
We saw Min who contend for thetitle of the Players Championship couple months
ago. Really good young player.Look, I hope Aaron Wise comes back
and he's healthy and he's playing goodgolf. But I just don't see it

(47:45):
happening so quickly this week. Sohe's a faith for me, and I'd
played Minho Lee against him in ahead to head matchup. There's so much
left to get to. Can Ibug you to stay another segment after this?
Of course, as someone who hostsown Ray Dio show. That it's
just it's a great strategy when you'reon the air and he has someone to
stay through the commercial break. Theycan't say know. They sound like it's

(48:07):
shirk if they say no to you. I really like to go to sleep.
Adam, it's eleven thirty, Butno thanks, but I've got another
radio hit. I've got to dosome schedule for eleven thirty somewhere else.
Of course I will play out.Well, thank you, you're you're onto
my strategies. Yeah, we wantto talk to Jason about obviously, you
know, his favorite outright picks andlong shot picks. We've been talking,

(48:27):
you know, matchups, and that'sgreat. But as as he said,
there are a lot of good waysto make money. Maybe you like a
top forty, a top twenty,you want to get get a little frisky
with a top ten. Who knowsAnd obviously Dan he's got some guys that
he's watching as well. So we'regonna step aside here on the Gambler with
Adam Kaufman Jason Sobel from the ActionNetwork. We'll rejoin us in just a
couple of minutes. Sick and tiredof old sports talk and want to get

(48:50):
right into the action The Gambler withAdam Kaufman, as you covered, call
us now with six one seven twosix six six eight six eight. That's
six seven two six six six eightsix eight. The Gambler with Adam Koffman
will be right back after this onwr KO and as the games where the
Warriors driving me crazy, or maybeit's the Lakers that are driving me crazy.

(49:14):
Basically, one is too good andone is not good enough. Right
now, it's a few minutes intothe second half and we need laight amount
of response to this game doesn't getugly and turned to a blowout and blow
up prop bets and so many otherthings. So figure it out, Lebron
ad and the rest of you.But we're talking golf at and t Byron
Nelson. Ta's often just about eighthours as a matter of facts, you

(49:35):
want to get those bets in.Jason Sobel from the Action Network series XMPGA
Tour Radio is with us as well. Just great insights. We were just
talking with Jason about tournament matchup propsand that type of thing. But let's
let's you know, people like outrights, Jason, you know that and
Scottie Scheffler, He's the favorite,and then you get slightly longer odds when
it comes to the likes of TerrellHatton, who you talked about in Jason

(49:57):
Day. Tom Kim kh Lee isthe two time defending champion. Could he
make it three in a row?He's eighteen to one. Who do you
like? So Unlike most weeks whenI'll usually have someone who's maybe not the
favorite, but somebody twenty five toone or shorter, this week I'm essentially
fading the entire top of the board. Like I said last segment, between

(50:21):
the weather, between it being abirdiefest, between it being the week before
a major championship. None of thoseguys at short numbers really appealed to me
too much on some other investments indfs or one and done pools on a
guy like Jason Day. But sixteento one in the betting markets is just
too short for me to chase aftera guy who has than one in five
years on the PGA Tour. Andso I'm starting my card at a guy

(50:45):
who started the week at forty fiveto one. You can now find them
as somewhere between thirty five and fortyto one. And again with golf,
it's always important to shop around.If you've gotten multiple books, check those
out because unlike a sport like basketball, where you've got pretty much the spread
is what the spread is, andthen numbers are going to be the same
across the board. If you canlook at golf, you might find a

(51:07):
better price somewhere out there if youhave multiple books. So shop around,
certainly. And Shamus Power is aguy who, first of all, has
been top twenty here the last twoyears. He had a top twenty last
week at Quail Hollow, tends toplay well in Bertie Fest when it's a
shootout. He's won a couple ofPGA Tour events and these types of scoring

(51:28):
formats. Plus he's a guy fromIreland, it's not going to affect him
too much. But it's raining outall weekend, which it very well might
be. I saw Ryan Palmer asa relatively popular one too, knowing that
he's you know, he's missed thecut in nine of fifteen PGA events that
he's had this season, but justby virtue of the fact that he was
a top five finisher last year,Do you like him at all? Yeah?

(51:50):
I do like him. I thinkwe tend to get a little overboard
when looking down narrative street and tryingto find reasons and rationale for why we're
to play a guy in the wholeTexas rationale starts to the Texas narrative starts
to take over a little bit whenwe get to these events and do it.
Ryan Palmer's from Texas. This eventsin Texas. Therefore we should like

(52:12):
Ryan Palmer. I don't know thatnecessarily plays into it too much. There's
some course history started playing better golflast week at Quel Hollow. I certainly
don't hate him or some other namesif you're searching for a long shot.
Some names that I like that orinclude Michael Kim, who's come essentially risen
from the dead as far as hiscareer, where he was a guy who

(52:34):
didn't make a cut for two anda half years on the PGA Tour and
has now made the cut in sixthstraight and has two top tens in that
span. He's playing some really goodgolf hot right now. I like having
a little piece of him. Youcan get him at somewhere in the sixty
five to one neighborhood. A coupleother names. Eric Cole has played really
well on his rookie season, justinSuh. Same thing for him. Scott

(52:57):
Stallings put this one back on theskied well a few years ago because he
said the analytics showed him he shouldbe here playing this event. And he's
played well the last two years,so that works for him. And let's
see a couple of names I'm lookingat here, Christian Zidknw we mentioned last
segments, and Jimmy Walker. JimmyWalker at trouble digit odds coming into the

(53:19):
week. He might have shortened upto about ninety to one by now.
But four straight top twenty five finishesfishes for a guy who's won a major
championship in the past, and he'splaying some much better coffletly trying to furiously
write these down, Dan, Iknow you had some guys you were keeping
an eye on. Yeah, Hey, Jason, I got two plays I
have pending right now. I wantto get your blessing on him before I
hit submit here and spat waste mymoney on these guys. But how do

(53:42):
you feel about Tom Hogi this weekend? He's down at thirty five to one.
He opened at fifty to one.He's another another Texas guy played at
TCU, so he's got that localangle going for him. How do you
feel about Hogi? I like Hogia lot. I tend to think that
Hogi is more of just a ballstriker and not as much of a They
can go low, and yet wesaw that the Player's Championship a couple of
months ago when really low on theweekend. I believe you, shot sixty

(54:05):
two on Saturday, wound up finishingin third place, so he can certainly
go low. I essentially have stayedfront. Real reason I want to next
week. Feel like him the bestfall striker on the PGA Tour this season.
Leaves and strokes gained on approach shot, so it was the best iron
player that we've seen Barevan Justice,Thomas Colmore down with John Rom Scotty Cheffler.

(54:29):
So I was trying to save himfor next week, and I didn't
want to use him up. Didn'twatch Jinxit. But yeah, I do
like Tom Bogey all right, verygood? Love that. And then how
about Tom Kim. He's up towardsthe top, up, you know,
around the favorites up there, toptwenty in his debut here last year,
playing good golf. I'm looking athim like a top ten finish at plus
two ten. There's other guys upthere that I like that are quite frankly,

(54:50):
I feel like because this is abit of an inferior field this week,
we don't have a ton of bignames that we tend to just search
for guys near the top. Wego, well, I'm Kim's good,
they will just play it. Ijust don't quite see it. I know
he's got a little bit of history. He played well there last year,
and that was before he blew upand became an international superstar. But he's

(55:10):
played just okay so far this year. The ball striking was pretty good,
especially from outside of two hundred yards. He's a good long iron player,
and that's gonna help a lot.You're gonna have a lot of those types
of shots on this golf course.But I still I'm not quite there yet.
With Tom Kim, we have someIt feels like when he gets hot,

(55:30):
he gets really hot, and Ihaven't seen it from him yet,
And until I see him really startto heat up, I'm probably staying away
fair enough. I feel like I'msort of pigeonholing my questions and not being
nearly broad enough for you, Jason, So what I want to ask you
is no, no, no,You're doing a great job. But me,
I'm judging myself here, and whatI want to know is, what's

(55:51):
your favorite bet? What's your favoritebet of the weekend of any kind.
I will give you a couple oftop twenty those guys that I mentioned that
I like outrights, and I willback up those outrights the long shot outrights
with top twenties this week. Andprobably the two favorites I have are Stallings
on Bason miss d He's me onmy show a few months ago that he

(56:13):
put the Nelson back on his biganalytics guy, and we'll hear the numbers,
and a lot of times players willuse analytics and look at it and
say, Okay, my putting isnot good enough. I'm gonna work on
my putting. Okay, that's fine. Stalling is actually going to the next
level. He's looking at his statsand seeing where his numbers correlate to different
golf course and saying, I needto put the Nelson back in the rotation

(56:35):
because the way I'm playing right now, my game pits back golf course.
He's shown at the past couple ofyears has a couple of really nice results,
and he's actually other than a fewholes in those two years, and
we're he's blown up for a coupleof double and triple bogies. He's posted
a ton of birdie so he cango low on this golf course. Like
him for a top twenty. Andthen the other guy is the one I
mentioned then talking about a guy whenhe gets going, he really gets going,

(57:00):
and I mentioned it was bad fora long time from Michael Kim.
He won the twenty eighteen John BeerClassic, made immediately qualified for the Open
Championship next week. Fish at thirtyfive, didn't have a top sixty for
the rest of the year after that. The next year didn't make a cut
at any event that had a cut. He only made cuts at no cut

(57:21):
events. The year after that,twenty twenty, didn't make a cut anywhere.
He didn't make a dollar on thegolf course. He's only a few
years removed from that. But allof a sudden, Paulie spoke of him
a couple of days ago, You'vegot all the confidence and momentum going.
Everyone warn't right now. I likehim for a top twenty on him as
well, but I will back itup at the top twenty. How about

(57:43):
just an early look at next week. Obviously it's a major, it's more
exciting. That's what really gets people'sattention, as opposed to some of the
other tournaments to fall in between,like the Byron Nelson. What are some
of the early impressions that you haveor some of the early bets that you're
making. I'm sorry you were breakingup in the getting to that question out.
I'm giving that again. Sorry,sure, just asking about next week

(58:04):
and what you're looking ahead to.Yes, So, speaking with those at
oh Kill, this is a completelydifferent golf course and we saw ten years
ago host the two I mean,of course, is looking like compared to
what it looked like ten years ago? He said, Well, it still

(58:25):
plays as a par seventy. Otherthan that, there's absolutely nothing that's the
same. I'm taking out a lotof trees. They build new holes,
entire new green complexes. Though.I guess the first bit of advice I
would give people is don't even bothergoing back and watching video from there,
looking going down to YouTube rabbit hole, look at the leaderboard. It just
doesn't quite matter because it's a completelydifferent golf course. That said I'm looking

(58:49):
for players who, first of all, are just good ball strikers. Guys
that hit fairies, hit greens,can make some pots. I get it,
that's the whole game, that's whatthey do. But I'm looking for
guys like that. I'm also lookingfor players who haven't quite peaked yet.
This year we've seen Scottie Steffler winthe Players Championship, We've seen John rom
win the Masters. Well, we'veseen over the last years that essentially there's

(59:10):
so many good players everyone kind ofit's like a deli counter. Everyone walked
up to the deli counter takes aticket that you know, if you're a
great player, you walk up upthere, they hand you a trophy and
you walk away and the next guygets his turn. I'm looking for the
guys that haven't quite had their turnyet, such am as the guy that's
very very enticing to me because he'splayed elite level golf this year without winning

(59:31):
one. Same for Xander Shoffley,same for Cameron Young who's get to win
on the PGA Tour. He's oneof the very few players though that I've
seen in the last decade or sowhere I said he can skip over the
learning how to win on the PGATour part and go straight to major champion
He's that good, Jason. What'sthe latest with Jordan Speed and this risk

(59:52):
injury? Is this a real causefor concern going forward for him? Or
is this an excuse to get alittle time off ahead of a major championship.
I was very skeptical when I firstheard the news because I had someone
in the know who told me lastweek that Jordan really didn't want to play
the Byron Nelson. He's been playinghere since he was sixteen years old.

(01:00:12):
He sort of owes it to thetournament to continue coming back. It's his
hometown event. So I thought whenI heard the news, well, this
is the way of getting out ofit. He said, I was gonna
play. It's not like I wasn'tgonna play it. But now I'm hurt,
so I can't do it. Thatsaid, since then that announcement,
it was two days ago, I'veheard that you know, this might be
a little more serious than we mighthave originally thought, and so this thing

(01:00:36):
could be bothering him. I willbe staying away from Jordan until we hear
from him, until we see whatthe risk actually looks. Like he has
swinging some practice rounds. I didlike Jordan a lot moving up to this
because he is talking about guys buildingup to some good stuff. He's been
playing some really nice golf. Heeliminates the big numbers which he's had throughout

(01:00:58):
the entire year. I think he'sgonna go out and start winning some golf
tournaments, but can't do it ifhe's start, can't do it if the
risk is bad, and so we'lljust to take a little wait and see
approach. Jason. I'm not atotal jerk, so I won't ask you
on air and position you to committo come on to preview the PGA Championship
with us, but I do wantyou to know you might be hearing from
me. All right, my namea little bit earlier. I'll do the

(01:01:21):
course early, so I might bea little bit earlier than tonight's time if
you can squeeze me in. Well, the show is ten to midnight,
so first hour, we could dofirst hour. I can't go any earlier
than that. I wish I couldbelieve me good for everybody, I can
probably do first hour. You're thebest, Jason, sobel from the Action
Network. You can find his stuffall over Twitter. I mean, he

(01:01:43):
boasts a lot of great content writtenvideo as well. Jason sobel t a
n and you can also, ofcourse, you know, find him on
serious XMPGA tour. Thank you somuch, Jason really appreciate it. You
got it. Thanks guys appreciating watchon the show. Thank you very much.
I appreciate that. And I hope, I hope Dan that as Jason's

(01:02:05):
firing off picks at us and Iwas taking notes, I'm just playing bets.
I'll text you. I'll take ascreenshot and text you. Don't worry
lease too, because I think Iprobably missed a couple of them as I
was, you know, surfing andall right outright on him, out right
on him. I'm gonna put atop twenty on him, matchup bet on
him. So yeah, if thereare any I missed, I will I
will keep an eye out for yourtext. But he's great, He's great,

(01:02:25):
a lot of great insights obviously,just a lot of great knowledge.
That's what I love about the gueststhat we have had on not only tonight
between Jason and Matt, but throughoutthe very brief history of this show.
A lot of very very knowledgeable peoplewho send us generally in the right directions
as best as anybody can, knowingthat there are no guarantees in this space,
but we're going to step aside.Come on back, we will review

(01:02:49):
the people's parlay for tomorrow. Incase you missed it. You may want
to lock that sucker in and alsoput this show to bed. This is
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Anyevent about bad bets, you've come to
the right place, tell us aboutit. Call six one seven two six
six six eight six eight six oneseven two six six six eight six eight,

(01:03:12):
or if you're listening on the iHeartRadioapp, use the talkback button.
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman will beright back after this on w r k
O. So, just to reviewsome of the knowledge from Jason Sobel.
He was he could support, butit wasn't you know, a full on
pick from him Hatton against Scheffler ina tournament matchup, but you know there

(01:03:36):
was a little bit of draw thereat obviously plus money for Hatton, but
he was as far as longer shotsgo of Shamus Power, Love, Shamus
Power, Shamus Power, Scott Stallings. He had mentioned Christian I cannot say
his last name, Zudenhoyt. Ithink, yeah, yeah, plus you
he Michael Kim as well. Healso mentioned Kim and Stallings as twenty guys.

(01:04:00):
So those are some of the uhlive well not live obviously that tournament
hasn't started, but live in thatas Jason was talking live bets that I
was making for this tournament, whichof course teas off at seven fifty am
Eastern time, so roughly eight hoursto the minute from now. So yeah,
a lot of a lot of incredibleinformation. Absolutely, he gave me

(01:04:23):
his blessing on my tom HOGI playso already locked that in there you go
liking that. Lakers fortunately starting tomake a show a little bit of life
in eights on the bench, whichis the most important part because he's up
to nine rebounds. So if thiscould get a little close for comfort here
for the people's parlay. So aswe approach the oh yeah, as we
approach the end of three, sotwenty one for Lebron and then twenty eight

(01:04:48):
for the other two. So that'swhat fifty nine so or no forty nine
right on eighteen forty nine and Ineed eighty between those three guys with a
quarter to go. Yeah, Idon't think so, good luck to me.
Oh something I'll keep an eye on. Obviously, in the fourth quarter,

(01:05:09):
here's maybe it'll go to overtime.Let's just hope it it stays close.
But a D stays on the benchfor the rest of the game.
Is that is that realistic? Probablynot good news. This show is a
sponsor. Now it's time to putthis show to bed. It's my pillow.
Thanks so much to our good friendsin my pillow. You've been hearing

(01:05:30):
the ads. Use the promo codeGambler. They are part of this program.
Promo code Gambler. Get you somegreat pillows or sheets or whatever it
is that you're after. I sleepwith my pillow every night. And I'm
not just saying that I have foryears, say really, really, really
enjoy the product. So welcome tothe Gambler my pillow. Great to have

(01:05:51):
you. And in the spirit ofputting the show to bed, let us
look ahead to some of the actionthat is going on tomorrow. It is
not just the eighteen t buy IronNelson. It is not even just the
Boston Celtics trying to stave off eliminationin Philadelphia, which is of course the
biggest and most important game of theentire day as far as we are concerned.
But you got the Nuggets trying toput away the Suns in Phoenix.

(01:06:13):
That line has moved to plus threeas far as Denver goes. I think
it was plus four, maybe evenfour and a half when we were talking
with Matt about an hour ago.You've got a couple of hockey games tomorrow
night, Pound those Overs, Devil's, Hurricanes, Kracking Stars, the Cracking
and Stars part of the People's parlay. And it's a very short slate on
the diamond Major League Baseball only whatfour or five games the Red Sox are

(01:06:35):
not in action? What do youother? And obviously the Celtics. What
are you most looking forward to tomorrow? Oh, Devil. I want to
see the Carolina Devil's game for sure, which I know they're on at the
same time. But Carolina, they'rejust a different animal in that building.
At home. We talked last nightwith aj about how this you know,

(01:06:55):
this Carolina team might be destined fora Cup run even with all their injuries.
They've been very impressive and at homethey're just they're a buzz saw down
there. So I like Carolina alot. I'm gonna take them on the
money line tomorrow for sure. Um, then yeah, the Celtics game,
and then of course which I mighthave to actually turn away from the Celtics
game because it's NFL schedule released daytomorrow night. We got to our Yeah,

(01:07:19):
there you go. So maybe weneed in addition to obviously a basketball
guest, maybe we need a footballguest tomorrow. We might. I mean,
we're gonna have to go through theschedule, right, did you get
Have you booked your tickets to Germany? Adam? I have not. I
will not be making the trip unlessSebastian Volmer invites me. There you Bastian
Vulmer invites me, I'm there,Yeah, same, Yeah, can you

(01:07:41):
give me in on that too?If if he's thrown the invite out for
the show, yeah, we cando a remote from Germany. But anyways,
Yeah, I'm really looking forward.I love I love schedule release Day.
It's just something as a sports fanyou just get fired up about for
no reason because you know what you'regoing to be doing in four months.
So hopefully we get no more mymath, right, no more than five

(01:08:02):
more rebounds in the fourth quarter fromAnthony Davis and uh, and we will
have a successful we can get five, we keep no more than five.
We have the under fourteen and ahalf. He's at nine right now.
People's parlay for tomorrow, if youwould like to join in on the fund.
So far, so good. Knockon wood. It's been successful.
We have over eight and a halfruns Padres twins. That is Matt Meiselman's

(01:08:25):
number. And admittedly I'm a littlenervous about that one. Overs in general
in baseball just make me nervous andless. They're the Red Sox, Tampa
Bay Rays, yours on the moneyline going up against the Yankees who have
been hot and but playing Oakland.But playing Oakland, that's right, there's
a there is a disclaimer there.And I have the cracking stars over goals,

(01:08:45):
which I just can't believe it's nota higher number. And if they're
going to keep throwing it out there, what it is at six or five
and a half, depending on whereyou look, I am going to keep
playing it. And that is amore than plus five hundred odds for that
parlay. So I hope for allof our sakes that it is successful.
Obviously it's good for the show.When that happens, it's good for the
show, good for the bank roll, good for morale, good for everything,

(01:09:06):
all of it, all of it. Meanwhile, we get a whole
bunch of props and whatnot that we'restill tracking here in this game that we
will continue to track obviously after theshow. I'm really I am. I
am bummed that I max that promoon the eighty points between Clay Stephen and
Lebron. But even doing the math, I was like, I mean,

(01:09:28):
they're projected for around seventy five,so we need someone to go off.
Thought maybe in a potential elimination gamethat would happen, but not so far.
All right, well, we're gonnahave to call it a show.
Matt Meiselman joined us from the ValueBetting at Discord, Jason Sobel from the
Action Network. Both absolutely phenomenal.We have another show tomorrow, and wouldn't
you know it's the last show ofthe week Monday to Thursday ten to midnight
here on WRKO and streaming worldwide onbehalf of EJ Pacheco as well as of

(01:09:55):
course Dan Watkins. I am AdamKaffman, thanks for being with us.
It's the Gambler with Adam Kaufman.Check out the podcast in the morning,
you've been listening to The Gambler