04-17-23 Line Change Open

Jon Jansen opens the show talking #NBAPlayoffs, #Sixers, #MLB, Eagles extending Jalen Hurts, and more.

Episode Transcript

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Sports talk that has never been donebefore in Philadelphia. We're breaking down the
live action and helping you make yourlive wagers at the right moment. Follow
all the action right now on theline Change with John Janson. Not every

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game one for the top Seeds wentsmoothly, except for select view. One
of those teams being the Sixers,an easy one twenty one one on one
win against the Nets in game one. Game two tonight's can the Sixers repeat
their performance? And I think everythingkind of indicates yeah, they most likely

(00:57):
will. You're tuned in to theline Change, will go over the Sixers
game, will preview that go overat least one bet that I do really
like, and also we'll get tothe other game Golden State and Sacramento.
But of course Jalen Hurts gets anew contract as well, so we'll have
to go over that. And wehave two guests that we're gonna do that
with. Starting at six thirty,Mark Henry Jr. From The Tough Cover

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Show, which you can listen toevery Saturday eleven am to one pm.
He's gonna be joining us at sixthirty. We'll talk all things basketball,
contract and of course NFL Drafts wasjust coming up and Jeff Parles joining the
program at seven o'clock and we'll talkabout all of it, of course with
Jeff Parls, who can follow atJeff Pearls and check out his work on

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Visa. But let's get to theSixers game tonight, seven thirty tip between
the Sixers and Nets. Right nowover at bet Parks is where we get
all of our odds. So allthe odds who here on tonight's program all
provided by the bet Parks app.At the moment, Sixers big favorites,
ten point favorites against Brooklyn, thetotals sitting at two twelve and a half

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as well. I'm gonna go withthe player prop in this game, and
I thought the Sixers played very wellin game one. Obviously, there are
some things that the Nets have thatthe Sixers struggle against, and I think
one of that is just size.I would say in their backcourt mckel Bridges
they don't have. They don't playmany guards. Mickel Bridges essentially is like
their second guard, kind of shootingguard, but really technically a forward.

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And in that case, then youhave James Harden, who has to guard
somebody that you are uncomfortable with himguarding, because Maxie doesn't have the size
to do with. Maxie also isn'tthe best defender, although he did play
well down the stretch defending, butJames Harden is the one who has to
take that matchup, and obviously mckelBridges did what he did. Of course,

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in the second half there, theSixers played better and they defended mckel
Bridges better, and I expect themto do more of that. So the
Sixers I think can make changes tactically, which Brooklyn can't. Brooklyn is not
as talented. Brooklyn does not havethe same type of talent that the Sixers
have. Brooklyn does not have thematchup to be able to guard Joel.

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So as much as you know theNets can run out maybe this bigger lineup.
The problem is on the other endof that, they don't have anybody
in the interior to guard embiid andso they're doing a lot of double teams.
Don't making a bunch of bodies athim, and Joel embiid A is
usually making the right pass when heneeds to, but be still able to
score on that. I don't thinkthe Nets really can do anything other than

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that. It's kind of just ahope and a prayer that you can throw
bodies out there. It causes enoughchaos for him bad to maybe take shots
that he wouldn't take. Or again, I think I heard it from Jacques
Vaughan during his press conference before thegame today, trying to speed up the
Sixers process and if you do that, hopefully they speed it up to the
point of they get some turnovers.But that didn't really happen. Six Ers
shot it well, Sixers took careof the ball, and the Sixers defense

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only got better as the game wentalong. So I don't think in these
games, especially in the NBA andthe NBA playoffs, you know, once
they play a time or two andthe series keeps going, there are changes
that can be made tactically, strategychanges, throw different things at a team.
But the Nets, again, Idon't think they're capable of doing that

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in this circumstance. The Sixers,meanwhile, they can, and I think
they did that having and be kindof switch off more guarding McAll bridges.
They went isolation at one point.If you go check out my socials at
Ja Jansen thirty four, you'll seethe video on the show tweet. So
that, yeah, they're all bid, did a great job guarding McAll bridges.
They went one on one, mckelisolated and bad comes up at the

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block and the Sixers come up witha bucket on the other end. So
again, you can follow me atjj'son thirty four. Make sure to follow
Fox Sports the Gambler at fox PHLGambler. Also fox Pho gambler dot Com
as well is where you can checkout all things Gambler, including all of
our podcasts like the Stealing the Bagpodcast, which is very new new episode

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gonna come out tomorrow on the Steelin the Bag podcast. But they can't
make the Nets those changes. Meanwhile, the Sixers did and they work.
So with that being said, Ihave a feeling we're gonna see sort of
the same thing happened in this game. Obviously, the Sixers aren't going to
shoot well from three like that everysingle game. It's not going to be
easy like that every single game againstthe Nets. But they do have the

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upper hand and because of the interiordefense not being too good for Brooklyn,
Sixers should have an easy time withJoel and be getting buckets. But once
he gets buckets, things open upfor the perimeter. And when they open
up for the perimeter, James Hardenhas guys to find for three point shots
like Tyrese Maxie, Tobias Harris,even PJ. Tucker getting involved in the

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action from three. It's my favoritebets of the game. It's a little
bit high on bad parks, butI like the plus money and I think
it's going to be just about thesame. So James Harden throughout the month
of February in March, actually,so the month of March, he averaged
eleven and a half assist per game. Only two games in the entire month

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of March did he not have doubledigit assists. Of course, a couple
of those were tennisis, which wouldnot obviously hit this number. But he
had thirteen assists against Brooklyn when theSixers win in April. So the Sixers
had three games in April, threepretty good teams Milwaukee, Boston in Miami
that James Harden played against, andin those games his assists weren't great,

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especially Milwaukee and Miami when they lost. When they won against Boston, he
had tennisis. So James Harden's abig part of the Sixers winning. And
once the shots are going down Idon't think it's always I think James Harden
does a great job facilitating this offense, finding open guys. It's just sometimes
his sixers aren't capable of hitting thoseshots, even though for the most part

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they have been this year. Thethree point percentage is through the roof.
I think it's tops in the NBA. And when they're against a team like
Brooklyn that doesn't have the talent toguard the sixers, and they're gonna be
so heavily focused on trying to guardhim be because that is their biggest defension
deficiency on defense, it is goingto open things up on the perimeter,

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and then if things are opened inthe perimeter, it opens things up for
James Harden. James Harden had thirteenassists in that first game against Brooklyn,
was only eight for twenty one,which is okay, seven at thirteen from
three. Obviously, he caught fireat the end of the first half.
I love the assist prop though,especially a plus money, like you got
to get the assist prop at avery high total ten and a half,

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but it is at plus one seventeen, and I like it because you're getting
the plus money. And I dolike it because I think this game is
going to be just about the same. For James Harden, that's gonna be
I think his role in this series. Yes, we would like him to
be a great scorer, and hewas a good score in Game one.
But because they're going to be crashingdown so hard Brooklyn on Joel Embid that

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it's really going to be up tohim bad to kick it back out to
Harden and Harden to make it thatextra pass. And he has been doing
that and he has been excellent forthe Sixers this season, and Game one
was a very good start against Brooklyn. So that's the one bet. I
do have four the Sixers game plusone seventeen again to above at seven thirty
six Ers ten point favorite. Thereis another game in the NBA tonights and

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that is going to be the SacramentoKings and the Golden State Warriors. The
first game very high scoring as wethought. The total is two forty how
about that for a total. Sothe total in the Sixers game tonight two
twelve and a half. Even ifyou want to look at tomorrow's games,
Hawks Celtics too twenty nine total,Nick's Cavaliers two thirteen and a half.

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Clipper's Sons to twenty five and ahalf two forty for the Golden State Warriors
and Sacramento Kings, and it makesa lot of sense. Very high powered
out offenses, not so great defenses. Golden State obviously close to night game,
Sacramento comes away with the win.This is one of those series though,
as it always happens with Warriors series. I believe because Stephy Steph Curry

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is such a hard guard because he'smoving around so much. I think it
was a really great story. Ithink Jared Smith was telling that I saw
like a week or two ago,and how Matthew Dellavedova that he his body
was going through absolute hell trying toguard Curry because he's moving around a lot,
He's moving through a bunch of picks. It's very difficult to guard Curry,

(09:16):
and of course Darren Fox has themotor to do it. But the
longer that series goes along, Ithink, the better and I mean the
better team is going to be.I think Golden State in this series,
but the better they're going to lookas this series goes along. So the
one thing with Golden State though,has been road victories. They only have
eleven of them. They have lostthirty times on the road. Obviously through
Game one, it seems like thathas kind of kept with them. But

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they still played well in that game, and I think they are going to
be able to make the adjustments wellenough that they do win this game.
I like Golden State laying the twoagainst Sacramento. So those are my two
NBA bets for tonight, and I'msure we'll get plenty more with our next
guest, Mark Henry Junior. Now, over weekend, there were some upsets,

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some scores that we weren't expecting.Phoenix for the first time with Kevin
Durant in the lineup lost, Miamicomes away with the win against Milwaukee,
Janis hurt, John Morant hurt.Lakers come away with a road win against
Memphis. That one may not betoo surprising because it's a Lebron James team,
and I think there was an expectationthat they could be better than Memphis

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at this point while they're healthy.But we saw some upsets, We saw
some wacky scores, and the KnicksCavaliers game that disappointed. The Knicks end
up with the win in Cleveland.So which Game one win was he most
impressed? With and how is thatgoing to affect his betting heading in to
Game number two's which of course starttonight, the sixers and nets are gonna

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ask Mark Henry Junior that again followhim at Mark Henry Junior underscore he's coming
up next here on the line change