04-25-23 Line Change Open

Jon Jansen talks #NBAPlayoffs and more!

Episode Transcript

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Done before in Philadelphia. I'm talkingis we're breaking down the live action and
helping you make your live wagers atthe right moment. Follow all the action
right now on the line. Changewith John Janson. I remember when I

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was a kid. Of course,the Internet starting to become a big thing,
a big scary place, and it'salways be careful where you go,
Be careful who you're talking to,who you're listening to, because you can't
trust that person. Fast forward nowto twenty twenty three, and all of
a sudden, we have rumors NFLdraft rumors started on Reddit that are shifting

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sports books odds. It's ridiculous.It's actually, I think kind of disgusting
that it's moving because of this,and I think it proves that this market
is really dumb. I don't knowif that's the best way to put it,
but if you are betting a marketthat is moving off of Reddit posts,
then it's a market you shouldn't bebetting on. You're tuned into the

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line. Change Fox Sports to Gamblerpresented by Cure Auto Insurance. You can
follow us in Foxpeachel Gamble, FoxpeachelGambling dot Com. Also subscribe to the
YouTube channel at Fox Sports to Gambler. My name is John Jansen, joining
me. No guests today, youknow I'm gonna do show by myself.
I want to talk about baseball.I want to talk about the NBA games

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going on tonight. But of coursethen Mike Powers wants to stay, and
of course I want Mike Powers tostay. So Mike Powers is staying a
little bit of crossover here Powers parlaysinto the line change. We haven't done
this yet. Yeah, this isfun, this is intriguing. I'm on
the McDonald right now, trying tobuild a winner. Yeah, okay,
should I promote that we're gonna dothis? Right? Okay, we're gonna

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do this? Are we actually goingto get the orders? Like we're gonna
pick them up and eat them?Because I could, God, your ghost,
I could go for some McDonald's food, lay it all out for you.
So I'll go in the app aswell. We'll do that. Now
we're number two when NBA games wereon, and we could be a little
bit more open with what we're doing. Yeah, a little bit more loose
right now. It's all business,all right, except I say business,
but the business being conducted is onanonymous Reddit users, and it's being the

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number one overall pick odds, andwe don't get them here. So this
is I think primarily in Vegas,could be in a couple of the other
places, but primarily in Vegas,and well Levis all of a sudden becomes
I think the second or third shortestodds. I don't know if he became
the favorite. I know we wentplus four hundred in some books. He
went from forty to one to fourto one. Geez, Reddit off of

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reddits. We gotta get on thereddit. I could spread any room or
I one just put the name.I think the guy's name was like sports
books something. Oh my god,that's nuts. That's nuts. I don't
even know. Well, one likeobviously you know it's probably not likely,
right, Yeah, And the betsare being moved because people see that and

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they start betting because of that,and so obviously the sports books are trying
to make sure that there is thatthey're not risking anything financially, so they're
not losing a bunch of money.If Will Levis does end up being the
number one overall pick, by theway, he's not going to be the
number one overall pick. That's whatthat's what I don't think people get about
odds sometimes because I get I hearthis all the time all the time about

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odds. It's like, well,the team was the favorite, or there
is something that indicates, like NFLChampionship odds. I don't know why I
said. I could say super Bowl, but they put it as NFL Championship
odds. But they do that.He's like, Oh, the Eagles are
plus four or plus eight hundred andKansas City's plus six hun So what are

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they saying Kansas City's better than Eagles? Or you know some teams ahead of
the Eagles, and they go,oh, what do they think that team
is better than Eagles? No,it's all about the risk involved. It's
all about how much money that peopleare willing to bet on those teams.
It's the people that don't end upshifting the odds, because books can still
shift that either way. And you'llsee it all the time where the public's
on something and there will be whatyou call reverse line movement, so all

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the money starts going on something andinstead of moving that line, let's just
say for betting the Eagles ninety sixand a half against the Giants, and
everybody's betting to the Eagles. Butit goes down to five and a half,
you know, they can still reverseline movement. It's all about books
trying to save themselves from a bigmoney loss, right, That's what that

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is. And so when this rumorstarts, it's a lot of people that
are trying to get any kind ofedge in the draft market because they think
they can get of edge on notAdam Schefter posts but anonymous Reddit users and
start betting because of that. Hey, that's a dumb way to bet.
Yeah, it sounds like the waythey ruin, like the game stop,

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like they're turning red. Well that'swhat right, Yeah, right, it
turned into that for the stock marketand all that stuff happened. Yeah,
it's a state. It just doesn'twork like that. Yeah. But also
like Vegas is all knowing, it'sinsane, Like you can never try to
beat the odds. We try todo that. Vegas is all knowing,
but not with this, okay,because this has to be and you will

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eventually know who the number one overallpicks is going to be by the time
you get to the draft, probablylike a couple hours before. But we've
seen this a lot from the NFLand the NBA as well, because and
the NBA obviously woes and shams,they work their way around that. They're
like, uh, the Timberwolves areum setting their target on this kind of

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player instead of saying they're going todraft in. They would kind of work
the way around of you know they'redoing something that you know they're looking at
this player kind of thing. Gotcha. So but the the NBA basically said
you can report this before, andthe NFL is trying to do that.
It never works, and people reportit. But these things are not just

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loosely sealed here like everybody knows nobody. I think these are very tight circles.
NFL teams do not like this informationgetting out. You can hear from
some anonymous source from the NFL,some teams front office person in the NFC.
He said that Carolina actually likes BryceYoung over CJ. Strout And I

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don't care what they think, becauseI don't think any team is going to
play their hand right away and sayhere's what we're gonna do. The Panthers
know where they're gonna take. Iguarantee you they do. But it's not
like we know that right now.We don't know that. The Panthers do,
and Adam Schefter and I would imaginein Rapp reporter probably getting that from
the NFL. Don't you dare?Don't you dare? Nobody knows that the

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number one pick is gonna be thisyear that Trevor Lawrence. Here, everybody
knew this is gonna be Trevor Lawrence. Of course he's gonna be Trevor Larns,
even though some people want to ZachWilson drafted ever Trevor lawn which is
I've gotten bad. I've given baddraft advice and draft analysis on quarterbacks,
but that is some of the worstI've ever heard in my life. Yeah,

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but that's but that was a guaranteeyou weren't. You weren't spoiling anything
by saying Jacks Bills taking Trevor Lawrencethis year, though we don't know,
ye is it going to be RiceYoung? For a while it was c
J. Strout. Anthony Richardson gainedhim steam because he is probably the most
athletic quarterback we've ever seen in ourlifetime. And I'm saying that completely one

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hundred percent factual. He is oneof one. There is no quarterback that
has the type of athletic traits.This dude is a wide receiver and a
very like If you compare his measurablesand all of his athletic traits too wide
receivers, he would be a topend wide receiver. But he also can
play quarterback very well, and he'sgot a great arm and he's accurate.

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Yes, he hasn't started many games, and I think that leads to sometimes
not getting the ball where it needsto be at the right time. But
he has shown enough flashes of advancedquarterback play. There you go. That
guy's at least got something. Givehim more time because I think that's a
difference between him. I'm getting ona bunch of different tangents here, but
obviously we're talking about the number oneoverall pick. Will Levis is now at

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the top of that. But I'mgoing through these quarterbacks because while there are
options, and I think Anthony Richardsonagain, I think if he's compared to
Trey Lance, because Trey Lance wasused as the raw athlete that has a
good arm, but we don't knowif he's a good quarterback, and he
really didn't play that much in NorthDakota. He didn't throw the ball that
much in North Dakota. The differencebetween him and Trey Lance is Anthony Richardson

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actually worked within the pocket and showedoff advanced quarterback play in the pocket at
Florida that Trey Lance never flashed inNorth Dakota. You just hoped he would
pick it up in the NFL,and you hope to that if he got
a coach like Kyle Shanahan, whichhe ended up doing, that he would

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be able to teach him and makeit easier for him the way he's made
it easier for most quarterbacks in hissystem. Anthony Richardson doesn't need that.
He just needs a little bit moretime. He's twenty years old and he's
played I think he started thirteen gamesin his career. He needs time,
but he has at least a foundationthat can be worth building on, even
more than Malie Quillis, more thanTrey Lance, any of those guys,

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but incomes Will Levis, who's gotthe prototypical size. I guess he's got
a good arm. The production sucked. The production suck, and it's you
can't just use production as a wayto evaluate quarterbacks. But it's part of

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it, though, because I cansay that Stetson Bennett was one of the
most productive quarterbacks in college football lastyear. But he doesn't have the size,
he doesn't the arm, and hedoesn't it could be a fine backup
in the NFL, and who knows, maybe he comes in and he starts
a game or two like Gardner Minshewdid. I never thought Gardner Minshew would
be coming out of Washington State andEast Carolina by the way now, but

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I never thought Garner Minshew and allof a sudden he started some games and
the guy guy could play. Guywas an NFL quarterback backup, I'll be
it, but an NFL quarterback.That's what sets him better could be so
the production that plays into he maybeshould be drafted and given a look.
But also he's a twenty six yearold quarterback that is small and doesn't have
a good arm. Those tend tobe more fun like when when your quarterback

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goes down or a team's quarterback goesdown and then that guy takes over.
Well when that guy and that wasa marquee name too, Gardner Minshew,
because he did such a great jobof Washington State. Washington State, Um,
pretty sure I had a great yearwith him under center, and obviously
Mike Leach and it was Mike Leach'soffense and they put up just absurd video
game numbers when he was there.So it's always fun to have Yeah,

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high marque guys, especially as aone national apaches and multiple of them that
is going to be a back.But it's fun to see that guy.
But that guy you're not going todraft in the first round can't do that.
Ye, Will Levis has all themeasurables. The guy has the arm.
Guy's a good athlete too, bythe way. Yeah, you know,
I think that's because we want wedon't want to like Will Levis.

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I think people go overboard sometimes inthe evaluation Will Levis is a good athlete,
Well, Levis is a great arm. Will Levis is a prototypical quarterback.
But the production wasn't there compared toeven Anthony Richardson who had really good
production, Bryce Young and c.J. Stroud, who by far the
most productive. Bryce Young put upthe best stats of any quarterback of the

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last two years in college football.But Will Levis doesn't have that. And
part of that you can look into, Okay, well, why wasn't he
productive? And that's where you getinto the issues. That's where you get
into accuracy issues. That's where youget into processing issues. He had issues
potentially a wide receiver. He lostin wide receivers from last year or a

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couple of years ago into last season, and that maybe has played a part
in that. But inaccuracy is inaccuracy, and throwing the ball in wrong spots
is throwing the ball in wrong spots, and Will Levis does that. So
teams get hyper fixated on physical trades, but I think we've seen that teams
also like the productive side. BecauseBaker Mayfield was productive in college, It's

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the reason why he was the numberone overall pick. Kyler Murray was productive
in college. That's the reason whyhe was the number one overall pick.
Baker Mayfield does not look like anumber one overall pick. Kyler Murray did
not look like a number one overallpick. Right, And those guys who
got drafted number one why because theywere extremely productive in a great football program

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in an offense that a lot ofNFL teams are wanting to utilize in that
Air Ray type of offense. Andit didn't matter if Kyler Murray was small,
it didn't matter if Baker Mayfield didn'thave the best arm and you know
it wasn't the best athlete. Thoseguys were productive in college and teams want
that. Do you think there's likea White Knight that could be like that

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guy that nobody saw coming in thedraft, almost like Danny Times, right,
that was weird when the Giants didthat. Yeah, I don't see
that because they're all being talked about, the top four being talked about too
heavily if they're all gonna be taken, and it's pretty well known that they
there are teams interested even at thetop that they're going to go pretty early.
And I don't know where when Willwill Levis is gonna go, But

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that would be because Danny Times wetalked about a bit. Yeah, but
will Levis is being talked about somuch. But he's the one who could
drop out, I think outside ofthe top ten. And I think if
the Giants would have dropped down inthe draft and still picked up Dan Daniel
Jones, like nobody would have talkedabout it, right like, because it
would have been like, oh,that's what they're doing the fact that they
stood there and then still drafted thatguy was insane. Everybody was shocked.

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I don't know. I didn't seeanybody in my chats or social media,
anybody from New York ever thinking thatwas gonna happen. You know, I
was pretty surprised when it did happen. I'm still Will Levis is that Daniel
Jones type. Daniel Jones wasn't thatproductive in college, but he had the
size of the arm and he wasa really good athlete coming out of college

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as well. Duke and so BabeBenny's looked at as a smart kid.
Will Levis looks looked at as asmart kid. So they are very similar
to me. So when I seea Reddit post, change the odds,
here's insane. But without looking atwhat is actually in this draft class and

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how we compais to Young and Stroud, the Young and Stroud types in the
NFL draft, in his quarterbacks,they are going to get drafted over Will
Levis. Could teams think about WillLevis. I guarantee you Will Levis's name
has been brought up multiple times inconversations with the number one overall pick with
Carolina. I guarantee you Will Levis'sname is talked about with Houston for that

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number two overall pick. I guaranteeyou teams are thinking of trading up for
Will Levis. Teams are thinking aboutWill Levis. But it's a big move
and it's a risky move, rightany quarterback he's taken the top three and
that you're going to trade up,it's risky. San Francisco knew the risks

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and they aren't benefiting off of it. In fact, it's kind of hurting
them, I would say, becausenow they have Trey Lancer's not doing anything,
so they don't want to take thatrisk. And especially now you have
the guys that have fit previous numberone overall picks that teams are willing to
take. Bryce Young, he's physicallygifted, has a really good arm,

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good athlete. The size is aconcern. That's the thing about all these
quarterbacks and why you can leave thediscussion open as there is a concern with
each of them. There is ared flag. Bryce Young probably has the
easiest red flag. He's small,he's not tall, so that is a
red flag that teams ultimately do considernow and think about and drafting a quarterback.

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But everything else about Bryce Young isexactly what teams have drafted Number one
overall that haven't been slam dunks likeJoe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. But even
Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow is stillyou know, I wasn't a red flag,
but he was so productive in collegethat you couldn't couldn't look past it.
Trevor Lawrence obviously was a prodigy.And this guy has been talked about

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since he was in high school.That's how we think. He was a
sophomore in high school, so hejust had to have some production. But
he was the most productive quarterback whenhe was in college at Clemson. Do
you think that Hurts having such asuccessful career now could help Bryce Young because
Hurts isn't that tall. He's likefive eleven six one, right, He's

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a tiny guy. Yeah, ithurts his. He hurts his. I
think six one six, he's alittle bit Hurts. Hurts has a bit
more size and he's bulkier than fairBryce Young is. Bryce Young is five
ten, so that there is thereis like a significant that hut off from
when you get like a five ten, five nine guy. And I think
Kyler Murray's what five ten, fivenine, Yeah, so I think could

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be even a little bit smaller thanthat. Yeah. But yeah, because
even when Kyler was trying to potentiallylike he got drafted by the Oakland Athletics,
there was like concerns about his sizeas a major league baseball player.
You know, So I don't knowthat's that's crazy. Yeah, So size
means something. But still, BryceHung is everything else. He has the
production, he has, the physicaltraite, he has the mental traits.

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Smart kid went to Alabama. Youknow, he's done some really good things
at Alabama, and that he's workedin professional offenses, offenses that are coached
by guys that have been in theNFL. Bryce Young is a number one
overall pick, and if it's not, CJ. Strout is the exact same
thing. CJ. Strouts a littlebit safer, right, But he has
the arm. He has probably thebest accuracy in ball placement in this entire

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draft. He's not looked at asa great athlete, but what I saw
against Georgia was an athlete good enoughto work in the NFL. He can
at least get out of the pocketand throw outside of the pocket. He
can create out of the pocket.So I think if that was a question
mark, he proved enough that he'snot going to be Kyler Murray running out,
or he's not gonna be Jalen Hurts, but he can get out of
the pocket and make a play withhis arm outside of the pocket. So

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it kind of took away at leastone of his bigger red flags. But
all those guys still, those twohave exactly what the rest have had as
number one overall picks production in collegefootball. Will Levis doesn't have that.
So whatever, Anonymous Reddit user great, I'm glad they have the scoop,
and I'm glad they are going tobe people betting on the scoop. It

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means absolutely nothing in the grand schemeof things, and it doesn't fit what
other teams have done and what otherteams have looked at Will Levis. He
is physically not that good. Ifyou want to go for a guy that
is physically gifted and that you're kindof worried about how he's going to be
because maybe the production wasn't what youwanted to be, or he showed some

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things on ape that we're concerning.Anthony Richardson's the guy Anthony Richardson where over
Will Levis. I am one thatdoesn't like like Will Levis. I don't
think if you're you're If that's beingunderstood here, I don't like Will Levis,
so I will put that out therefor you. But it's for a
reason because these other guys have thecomplete resume. Anthony Richardson doesn't. But

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I mean his again, his physicaltolls are so off the charts that it's
eye popping. But it is eyepopping, how much of it? A
great athlete, he is better thanCam Newton. This is the best tested
quarterback ever ever. That's incredible tosay about a guy. He needs to
hire you. And he's such ame I mean just looking at his measurables

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and where everything like his forty yarddash, his vertical is, broad jump,
everything was top of the line,elite level for a quarterback, and
it was so good that it iseven really good. His measurables for a
wide receiver. This guy is oneof one arm length. It's incredible.
So why not you would take achance on that guy before you would Will

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Levis. Now, some teams wantto be safer and the NFL still has
his issues. I think with equality, especially when looking at quarterbacks. I
still think that is a thing,and I think Anthony Richardson is getting that
and TJ. Strout as well.They're talking about these test scores. Man,
I don't care about a test score. What is it the the I
forget what it's called. It's sometype of test. And CJ. Strout

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didn't do well? Fine, doeshe know how? Does he know how
to dissect the defense? Yeah?It looked like he could do that at
Ohio State. Good enough for me. I really don't care, right,
But I just don't understand the WillLevis thing. And we're going off the
anonymous Reddit user. I can't believethat. I cannot believe that it would

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shift the market the way it did. Did anybody pull off the market?
Like did draft Kings? Know?They just moved it. They just ended
up move Legitium, move it solike nothing came down. They're just like,
all right, we're gonna know themoney went from again, I think
four hundred to one or four,not four hundred forty to one down to
four to one. And in thatcase, again, I haven't seen the
markets because we don't have the markets. But if that means you're gonna get

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a better price on Bryce, you'rehung and get a better price on TJ.
Shroud. Yeah, yeah, comeon now, like God, like
Vegas is like okay, we'll takeyour money, like you know what I
mean, right, but be smartabout it. There are so many examples
that we have that prove and thecase studies have showed Caroline is not making

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that will love his pick. Carolineis not going to do that. But
I find it interesting. The NFLDraft again happening Thursday. We're gonna be
live, actually Green Legion going tobe live eight o'clock. But the number
one overall pick, it is upin the air. It's gonna be Bryce
Young. They've I had to reallymake a stance and almost guarantee who I

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think is gonna be the number oneover pick. It's gonna be Bryce Young.
I think it's gonna be too hardto pass up on how great he
has been for two years at Alabama, the fact that he is a playmaker.
I don't like the Steph Curry comparisonsat all, but he is a
playmaker. He's got a great arm. He has proven that he could be

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poised in situations that could rattle anyquarterback. There have been games where Alabama
has been down that he's brought themback in. He has kept them in
games that Alabama probably shouldn't have beenin. Alabama was a disaster last season,
and Bryce Sung was so good atkeeping them in games and making and
extending plays to make sure that histeams still had a shot to win.

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That is a trait that I thinkteams lean on significantly. And Bryce Ung's
got that. He's got the mentalmakeup the same way Jalen Hurts does.
He has the physical makeup except forthe size, and he has the production.
Bryce Song is going to be thenumber one overall pick. And if
that means you can get a betterprice because everybody is on this CJ.
Stroud rumor give me Bryce Young atnumber one overall and at especially a price

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that shouldn't be available. You're tunedinto the line change Fox Sports, the
Gambler, Mike Powers joining me instudio. My name is John Jansen.
You can found me at Jay Jansenthirty four Phillies in the fourth inning.
Lots of hot dogs being sold,but not a lot of runs on the
board, not a lot of hitseither. So this has been a very
very slow game. We are gonnaget basketball action soon. Boston taking on

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Atlanta. That game's gonna tip offin a minute or so, and we're
gonna be leading you up into Minnesotaand Denver at nine o'clock. Then,
of course ten o'clock Phoenix and theClippers. A lot of series that could
be ended tonight. All three ofthese can be ended tonight. Boston up
three to one, Denver up threeto one, and Phoenix up three to
one. They are all the hometeams, and they are all double digit
favorites. We'll get two those NBAplays, and we'll also take a look

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at the MLBA card as well fortonight. That's coming up next right here
on the line change