05-01-23 Line Change Open

Jon Jansen talks #Sixers-#Celtics Game 1, Joel Embiid being out, #Phillies, and more.

Episode Transcript

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Sports talk that has never been donebefore in Philadelphia is we're breaking down the
live action and helping you make yourlive wagers at the right moment. Follow
all the action right now on theline Change with John Janson. We all

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thought this would be the case,but it is officially official. Joe Ellenbad
will not be playing in the Gameone tonight the Sixers as they take on
the Boston Celtics in Game one ofthe second round of the NBA Playoffs.
To tune into the line Change FoxSports, The Gambler will be going over

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Game one bets between the Sixers Celticstonight, and I do have one.
It's not one that I'm sure you'regoing to like. It is a bet
for a Boston player, but it'sa bet that I've been eyeing up this
entire time leading up to this game. And also now as we know,
Joel Embiid is not going to beplaying, so going to go over.
That's also we have big Phillies news. Bryce Harper is going to be making

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a potential return into the lineup tomorrow, reported by Jeff Passon, reporting that
Bryce Harper, after one hundred andfifty nine days, will be in the
starting lineup for the Phillies as adesignated hitter tomorrow, so that is obviously
big news. We'll go over thatas well with our guest Destiny Legardo of

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Phillies Nation, who's going to joinus at six twenty. But I want
to start off with that Sixers gametonight because Joel Ebee being out obviously means
I don't want to go anywhere nearany type of spread. I don't like
the Sixers at all tonight. Ithink they are certainly going to miss the
Big Fella a lot, and againstthe team that they have struggled against pretty

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much throughout the regular season and evenpostseasons previously. I don't like that for
the Sixers. But what this doesdo, this puts a lot of stress
now on the guards for the Sixers, because the Sixers are probably going to
have to shoot more threes. Theyare an efficient team shooting, but instead

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of having the gravity that is goingto be pulled to the inside of the
paint with Joel Embiid and being ableto play off of that and getting maybe
a little bit of room on theoutside, you're not going to get that
now, and so there's going tobe a lot of stress on already a
good perimeter team in the Boston Celtics, a good perimeter defending team with Boston

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ends a plethora of guards to throwat you. So the Sixers are gonna
have their hands full already with theguard play that Boston has, and so
now there's a lot of stress onMAXI there's a lot of stress on Harden.
I think they could perform well,and obviously, if you do want
to look at a few player props, you can do so with Maxie and

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Harden. But I've seen Maxie struggledtoo many times before against Boston that I
would want to stay away from them. And James Harden, I think the
Brooklyn Nets kind of had a goodplaybook on him. He certainly was able
to get by defenders and get intothe paint, but when it came to
finishing the pain, getting to therim and finishing at the rim, Harden

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was not very good. And maybethat's something that Boston can continue. We
know they do have some size andthey will be able to protect the rim
slightly better as well. But Iam looking more at the guards here and
Harden is probably going to be muchmore active, I would say on the
offensive end, his responsibilities offensively arenow going to grow exponentially in this game,

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and hopefully it's to the point whereJames Harden looks like Houston Harden.
Maybe that's it. I don't believethat, but maybe that's the case.
But certainly offensive he's going to bethe main guy, and I think it's
going to lead to a lot ofusage, and I think that leads to

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Harden maybe not doing as well onthe defensive end. And even Maxie,
I know, has been getting betteras a defender, but I don't trust
him as a defender as well inthis series end. His offensive responsibilities are
probably going to grow too. Again, three point shooting is going to be

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the difference maker here, and theSixers hashot well from three, but again
a lot of that, how muchis attributed to the big man Maxie.
I think it's going to be stretchedthin offensively. I think what this leads
to is the Sixers maybe having someproblems with their backcourt defense, which is

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already a concern, and obviously Bostonhas a player that can take advantage of
that. Jaylen Brown has given theSixers a lot of problems this season.
He has a thirty point game,he has a twenty six point game against
them so far this season. Andit's for a reason too, Like Jaylen

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Brown is a great player, butthe Sixers backcourt we know, has a
bad defense. They're not good defensivelyguarding other guards. And so when I
can at least see Brown getting resultsagainst the Sixers and then I can see

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the Sixers having trouble against guards elsewhere, it tells me that this is a
bad matchup, and this matchup probablyisn't going to go well for the Sixers.
There are ten and a half pointunderdog. Again, I'm not banning
this bread. There's a certain partof me that thinks that because of the
way Boston was playing against Atlanta,that maybe they are being out coached,

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maybe they are not in the bestform, because that certainly didn't look good
against Atlanta. Atlanta played them verywell, and I know Atlanta at least
as Trey Young, who is thisexcellent offensive player. But still that series
should not have gone as many gamesas it ended up eventually going. So

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maybe Boston isn't in the best form. So I'm gonna leave the spread alone.
But I like Jaylen Brown props,so right now, over at bet
Parks, which, by the way, the line change presented by bet Parks,
so all the odds who here ontonight's program provided by the bet Parks
sports book app. Going over tothe bet Parks app looking at player points,
Jayalen Brown at twenty five and ahalf, you can get the over

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twenty five and a half at minusone oh seven. I like the number.
I think Jaylen Brown could score thirtytonight. If you want to bet
that, I would not. Iwould just take it at the twenty five
and a half. But if youwant to bet over thirty, you can
do over twenty nine and a halfat plus two ten. Again, there
is an emphasis on Harden and Maxito be more offensive based that they are

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going to take more offensive responsibilities andwhen you do that, you're gonna get
gassed, and they got to playa lot more, I would imagine.
I know Doc loves still going tothese very bench heavy lineups, but I
don't think he'll be able to managethat when you're now down another player and
you're already pretty thin to begin with. So Harden's gonna play a lot,

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Maxie's going to play a lot,and their usage offensively is going to be
through the roof, I would imaginebecause I maybe Tobias Harris and Tobias Harris
point props is the only other onei'd look at. He's right now sixteen
and a half at minus one thirty, he can get the over sixteen and

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a half. You want to goover seventeen and a half, it's a
plus one o two. I wouldlook at to buyas Harris props. I
don't like Paul Reid props. Iwas about to say Paul Rudd Paul Reid
props. I don't see them overat bet Parks right now, so I
don't have an idea of where whatthose numbers would look like. But even
if they wore up, I'm notgoing anywhere any of those because I think

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Boston can do pretty well inside.They're defensively very good, and I think
Paul Reid would struggle against that.Now. He has the high motor,
a good athlete, so maybe hecan end up picking up some points just
by being scrappy. I don't seethat, though. Paul Reid is obviously

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going to get a lot of playingtime now that Joe Empiat is out and
they don't really have another reliable centerto use. I don't think they're gonna
be putting in like Montrez Harrold alot in this game. It's gonna be
a lot of Paul Reid and Iimagine trying to go with a bit of
a smaller lineup at times. Ithink times you have to maybe think about

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Tobias at the five and bringing ina Melton because Boston is guard heavy to
begin with, so maybe you cango guard heavy and put Melton, Maxie
and Harden because Melton is such agreat player off the bench, one of
their only good bench players, thatthey're gonna have to use them a lot,

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I think in this series, inparticular in this game. But it
can't just be all of Harden andMaxie's responsibility to take care of Brogden,
to take care of Jalen Brown,to take care of Derek White, to
take care of Marcus Smart. They'regonna need more guards, another guard to
help out with that. I thinkD'Anthony Melton could. So it's gonna be

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interesting to see how Doc uses hislineups because they don't have really any good
backup. Paul Reid obviously he's gonnaget a lot of playing time, but
who is going to come in forhim, though, I don't think we're
gonna get many minutes out of Harold. I hope we don't get many minutes

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out of Harold, so it couldbe guard heavy time, so maybe Danthony
Melton gets more playing time than usual. But either way, I love Janelen
Brown props again over twenty five anda half minus one O four The only
six Ers prop i'd look at potentiallyto Buias Harris because he's now because he

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can't usually he's been just a spotup shooter now for the Sixers. Ever
since James Harden has made his wayto Philly, he's been standing at the
three point line catching shoe kind ofguy, and he actually ended up being
pretty good at that. But nowwe get to see more of Harden,
or more of Tobias Harris before that, which is him getting into the lane.

(11:11):
I think posting up a little bitmore. That's likely more of what
we're going to see from Tobias Harris'sgame, and I think that leads to
him not only putting up more shots, but I think also getting more points
as well. I think we seea bit of that Tobias Harris instead of

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the one that we usually see sothings are going to change. The offense
is going to change, and itjust figuring out what change could be for
the better for some of these players, and I think Tobias Harris is it.
Tyrese Maxie, of course, isgoing to have his opportunities. I
do not like the way he playsagainst Boston, and there seems to be

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reasons for this too. It's notas if Tyrese Maxie has just had a
few bad games. They play himvery well, and I think Tyrese Maxie
we saw this when he was comingoff the bench when he first came back
from the injury, and they werekind of, you know, this second
unit is pretty much your own create, be a score and get us some

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points while hard and beat arresting,and it never worked out that way because
sometimes Maxie is a hard time creatingon his own, because I don't think
he is as advanced of an offensiveplayer as you would think. He's a
great shooter and he's a great athleteand he can finish at the rim,
but creating on his own, Ithink with teams throw some things at him,

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he doesn't know how to counter it. And Boston is one of those
teams with some of the best defensiveIQ we've seen in the NBA. They're
one of the better defending teams andthey can defend guards really well. To
me, it's just a bad matchupfor Maxie. I would be tempted because

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he's going to shoot probably a lotmore. You can get his total twenty
three and a half, the oversminus one twenty four, there is over
twenty four and a half. It'splus one hundred even money. But I'd
be scared of that because of theway Boston plays him, And I think

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it's only going to get worse nowthat Joel Embiad is out, because Joel
Embiat can create openings for you,and once you create an opening for Maxie
then it's just his athleticism takes over, his shooting ability takes over, and
once you give them that opening chance, he could take advantage of it.
But I don't think he can findthat on his own, and he's a

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trouble finding that on his own previously. Maybe things have changed because it changed
against Brooklyn in I think it wasGame three, like completely changed. Harden
goes out and beads dealing with aninjury. That's when he first sprayed his
LCL and Maxie comes up with clutchbuckets late. If that Maxie shows up,

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then maybe it's a different tune hereand maybe you'll find success against the
team that he hasn't found success againstrecently. But that's not something I'm willing
to bet on for this game.Now, do Anthony Melton props do intrigue

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me? I do want to takea look at how Melton has been playing,
though, just to make sure.So he's averaging ten points per game
this season in the last two games, so Game three against Brooklyn had thirteen
points, five for eight shooting,and then in Game four, which obviously
he had to play a little bitmore, I did only a logged twenty

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eight minutes, but thirty minutes ingame three twenty eight minutes in Game four
logged at fifteen points, three fromseven from three and also five of eleven
from the field. I may belooking a little bit too deep, Pier,
So I can understand the hesitancy oftailing me on these props, but

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I think Melton is going to getmore run out of all the players that
could get more. I know PaulReid is going to be looked at because
he's the direct replacement for him bed, and so he's gonna obviously get more
minutes and you would think more usage. But I like Melton more because I
think they're gonna have to counter theabundance of guards that Boston is going to

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throw out the Sixers. I thinkMelton actually can do well against Boston.
He's a VET, He's a decentathlete, decent shooter, smart player.
I thought he did great against Brooklynin Game three. I think that was
when Harden got ejected. Same samething with Maxie. I thought Melton was

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actually playing extremely well and he wasthe one that got the offense I think
moving early when Harden got ejected.So Melton, to me, I think
is a good replacement here. AndI think Melton is the one that I
would look for if you do wantto go deeper, because when an injury
happens, you can get guys thatare still somewhat at a cheap price or

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at a good price and good value, because it's still hard to change a
player. Prop for a guy liked Anthony Melton, he don't know how
many minutes he's going to log andhe's on the bench. But Melton to
me, is the one that actuallyis going to benefit from this. I'm
all over Melton props as well,so I like D'Anthony Melton over nine and

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a half. Now, as I'mtalking about this, the number for Melton's
threes just keeps going up. Iwas just seeing it at one twenty two
as I was talking about this prop, and now it's up to minus one
thirty. So that is a lotof juice to lay, and I don't
know if I'd feel comfortable laying thatjuice now. Again, he has been

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a good three point shooter in thelast couple of years games and in the
last actually he hit over this propin every single game against Brooklyn, so
the over on threes is one ahalf. He was two for seven in
game one, two of five inGame two. These are three point shots,
two of four in Game three,and three of seven in Game four.
I imagine because of more minutes,he's going to get more opportunities at

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three. I'm going to say he'sgoing to be in that five to seven
range when it comes to three pointattempts, and if he does that,
two could be in play here.So he hit that in all three games,
all four games against Brooklyn, soI could see why this is juiced
up, but it is a bitjuicy. However, I'm still going to

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go with it. Over one anda half minus one thirty four d Anthony
Melton threes. So those are mythree plays, three player props. Jalen
Brown twenty five and a half points, D'Anthony Melton over nine and a half
points, and the Anthony Melton overone and a half threes. So game
one tonight, jonely beat officially out. But we know there is going to

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be a player coming in in Philadelphiaand that is the Phillies. They are
going to get Bryce Harper returning tomorrowin the lineup. Destiny Legato of Phillies
Nation is going to join us next. What should the expectations be early on
with Harper? What could potentially bethe plan with Harper and even getting them
back into the field. We'll talkall about Bryce Harper and of course the

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Phillies game tonights and this week againstthe LA Dodgers that's coming up next here
on the line change