05-08-23 Line Change - Jeff Parles

Jeff Parles joins Jon Jansen to talk #Sixers-#Celtics, #NBA, #MLB, and more.

Episode Transcript

(00:02):
It is the second and final hourof the line. Change Fox Sports to
gambling from You have a guest inthe Gambler hot Line. He's gonna have
a very special day coming up ina couple of weeks. Very excited for
this young gentleman, the big lifemove. He is about to make some

(00:24):
four then you gotta get bets fromhim as a single man, sort of
as a not married man. Joiningus on the Gambler hot Line is Jeff
Barles. You can follow him atJeff Parles on Twitter and check out his
work on vison for now before hetakes a little time off for a special
day. But Jeff, the NBAplayoffs continuing to roll on, and we

(00:46):
do have a couple of games tonight. I want to start with the Sixers
in Celtics Series. Sixers win Gamefour. I should be happy about that.
I'm feeling negative after the game.Should I be feeling negative about the
series for the Sixers after Game four? First off, I'm very disappointed that
you are not taking the fourteen hourdrive to the Middle America for the wedding.

(01:07):
Yes, very fourteen hour drive.Only cheap plane ticket over to uh
to the area. But yeah,hey, hey, look what I look
I looked into I did take alook one way, one way getting there,
not bad coming home to Philadelphia,and I'm not great So so I
got you on that. Um,look, I love how you didn't trust

(01:29):
me enough about it that you hadto look up the prices to be like,
is he really saying it was?It was? It wasn't you.
There was someone else in the air, okay, um who asked uh and
uh went went? That went throughthe chase. Fortal couldn't fly. I
couldn't really help them either, butone regardless to a different story for a
different day. Um so, uh, Sixers in Celtics. Fixers are gonna

(01:57):
need basically MVP James Harden to winthis series. They're not going to win
this series because you can get twoYou might even be able to get one
more out of Harden where he's allworld and looks like what he did in
Houston, and you've gotten two ofthem already. I don't think you can
get two more. And two moremight not even be enough because Boston could

(02:21):
beat them, and Boston probably whenthey came back at a real show.
You know what, I'm not gonnasay they should have won the game,
because the Sixers should have won thegame, and it probably shouldn't have even
needed Harden's three at the end towin the game, because if the Rest
don't totally butcher in the sequence wherewhat I called it Joel for the charge
when Smart clearly was leaning into adiculous and paid ridiculous and then Tatum basically

(02:44):
throwing Maxie to the ground and notgetting called right in front of Gomblin's face.
U. It was. It wasridiculous. It was it was.
It was basically felt like the Restare trying to hand Boston the game,
and thankfully for the Sixer's sake,Harden bailed the mountain and they and they
win the game. Bul Okay,It's just really hard to envision them winning
two out of three, unless ifHarden goes off in those two wins,

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and I just don't think James iscapable of doing that four times in seven
games against arguably the best team inthe NBA. With that said, if
the Sixers do find a way towin this series, they're going to the
finals. They're gonna be whoever comesout of the other series. I know
there are some there's some concern withfolks about them handling Miami, I think

(03:28):
they would handle the heat, andwith home court, I think it's just
better. I think Miami took advantageof a and again it would be a
big coaching this match with Spogan's doc, but they took advantage of the honest
injury, and they took advantage ofa huge coaching this match in that first
series against Milwaukee. In this secondseries, at least the teams are a

(03:49):
little more even ability wise, andButler's the best player in that series,
so that makes a little more sense. But in the end, I think
Boston wins and seven. I thinkBoston wins game five, Philly wins game
six. Something's win game seven.And I actually give Miami and New York
more of a chance to be Bostonthan I do to be that either of

(04:10):
those teams to be Philly. Ithink Joe Massoula has shown in this postseason
that he's not there yet fully asan NBA coach. He's just not fully
there yet. Not calling a timeout at the end of the game yesterday
was kind of ridiculous, especially whenit was clear that they were going too
slowly in call time out at eightseconds less Hill sets up something up pretty

(04:30):
well. But in the end here, I think the Sixers are gonna come
up a game shy, lose thisseries in seven, and then I don't
really know what you do in theoffseason, and there's no quick fix.
I think Doc would stay. Idon't think if they lost this series in
seven, unless it docs us somethingtotally insane in these potentially last three games,

(04:51):
I don't think it would be Doc'sfault that they will have lost this
series. So you got a lotyou gotta They got a very weird offseason
ahead if they don't find a wayto win this series. But if they
find a way to win this series, the expectation has to be you got
to win the championship, be abig favorite in the East Final, and

(05:12):
I think Denver and Phoenix would befavorites over them. I think maybe even
the Lakers, but it would thinkthey would. It would be a yeah,
I think, actually, yeah,you know what, I don't know,
I really don't know. I knowPhoenix wouldn't because Phoenix was still looked
at it. The betting favorite,even though they're a path to victory,

(05:32):
is really not sustainable based off ofwhat they've done. But we'll see again.
I think it's Celtics in seven.But I was very happy. I
would be very happy to be wronghere, John, Yeah, I don't
think you're going to be I thinkGame five is going to be a disaster
for the Sixers. There's just beenthis problem with the Sixers repeating good performances
and being able to, as I'vebeen saying, do it again. They

(05:56):
didn't do it after Game one.Let's see if they can do it after
Game four. But we have twogames tonight that I want to talk more
about because we've already talked a bunchof Sixers an hour. Number one Knicks
and Heats Heat lead two to one. Knicks have just had no answer for
the Heat. They were barely ableto scrape by a winning Game two even
without Jimmy Butler on the floor.So the Heat have looked like the better

(06:16):
team. The Knicks have really notfound any advantage or upper hand. Does
that change at all tonight in Gamefour? They're gonna need a lead Jayalen
Bronson in order for that to change. And this is not a great matchup
for the Knicks because the Heat arevery well coached, they are very good

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defensively, and they are experienced unlikethe Calves, who, again, we're
very good defensively and we're good metricallyoffensively under a the year bigger staff,
I think is about a league ambragecoach, and that was a group that
had never been together in a postseason. So it was a pretty quick melt
by them in round one. Butlook, I'm not I had no interest

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in betting this series in any sumstance. Now, John Butler's the best
player in the series, but atBrunting at least closed the gap there and
make it at least like a mottoa motto situation that would give the Knicks
a chance. And again I thinkfour and a half is probably right here
for Game four. Anything north ofthat it would be hard to pass on
the Knicks. But hey, look, Miami just finds ways when you have

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the Hall of Fame coach and youhave a guy in Butler who in this
era of basketball, I think we'llgo down as the most underrated player in
his arrow where I mean he madethe finals in the bubble, where I
think everyone has counted the Bubble seasonas the one that is the one that
shouldn't really count, even though inall honesty, the following season should be
the one that that everyone will sayswith the asterisk, not the bubble season.

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Look, he's a stone comb killer. He is clutch his heck he
is. He is an incredible playerin big games, and he kind of
also makes an amazing that he missedthat three last year. I want to
Miami to the finals and maybe changedthe course of NBA history. It was
Miami and Golden State instead of GoldenState in Boston. So again I do.

(08:09):
I do think Miami wins this seriesand six. I think they win
tonight, they win Game six,mixt win Game five, and it'll set
up again. If it's Miami Boston, I will look to bet Miami in
that series. If it's Miami Philly, I would not look to bet Miami
because I don't think that price willbe good enough to bet. The Heat
also a two to one series.Warriors just got beat bad in Game three,

(08:33):
thirty point loss. They've had roadissues which have been documented very well
heading into the postseason. Can theWarriors, though, maybe flip the script
here and get a win in Gamefour? John, I think the Lakers
are winning the title. I saidthat last week. The title, like
the NBA title, the Finals.They're they're winning the whole thing. Yeah,

(08:58):
I think yeah, And again itwouldn't shock me at the winner of
this series. It wouldn't shock meat Golden State came back in won this
series. Still, do you haveGolden State still as the championship pedigree?
The one difference of Golden State noweven as opposed to even as as soon
ago as last year when they wonto win that title again, they're not
capable of great performances strung together likethey were at their peak or even last

(09:22):
year. So I don't I thinkthe Lakers are winning tonight. They're going
up three one. I don't careGolden State wins Game five, the Lakers
will win Game six in advance tothe West Final. But look, when
push comes to shove, here themost important player in the playoffs as being
Anthony Davis. And when Anthony Davishas been right and has played very well,

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too potent, too great, theLakers have won in the three games
the Lakers have lost lost in thismost season, Davis has been averaged to
be the elker. If you getvery good to great ad this whole tournament,
the Lakers are the best team left. You still live Lebron even though
he's not the same guy as hewas, he is still great. They
have their depth has actually played verywell in this postseason. I think Darvin

(10:09):
hands actually pretty guard good coach.Again, this team was awful to the
beginning year and here they are witha legitimate shot to win the win them
all and if they get my GoldenState. I mean, look at the
other two teams that are left inthe West. You have Phoenix, who
obviously as two of the seven bestplayers in Branton Booker at this point,
but they have really nothing after thoseguys, and they actually looked much better

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without Chris Paul and games three andfour that with them. And then you
have Denver, who as great asyour Kig is and as when Murray is
on, as great as he is. Do you really trust them to win
a seven game series against the Lakers. I do not, And if they
if Denver would have beat the Lakers, I would not trust them to be
either or any of the teams comingout of the East and all egoods and

(10:52):
to still think it's going to bethe winner of the Boston Philadelphia series.
But the Lakers have had when theywhen they are when those dudes are healthy.
Davison Lebron more times than honor thetwo best players in the on the
court, and Davis is at leastin competition to being the best guy unless
for most fucks now, with theway he has played this postseason, I
usually think Anthony Davis and I don'tknow what the numbers are right now.

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I know Draft Kings had on Friday, they still had odds up for excuse
me. On Saturday, still hadodds up for Western Conference Finals MVP,
and Anthony Davis was only was plusfour fifty. If you can still get
that north of three to one,I think that's a great bet because there's
no universe where the Lakers. Well, you can get Anthony Davis right now

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over at bet parts to win WesternConference Finals MVP at plus five fifty,
All right, well, then Iwould bet him in Lebron, I would
bet both of them and lock themdown each or wrong, they're still getting
Davis at four fifty, I don'timagine You're still probably want Lebron's probably want
four to one, four to one. Anthony Davis, by the way,
five fifty five fifty. Yeah,So no, that's what I'm saying,

(12:01):
Like you think that you take abolt in the knock them down at bit
and you get those odds. Butlook, I would do it the Lakers.
No universe where the Lakers are.I mean, if they play Phoenix,
the Lakers will be what plus oneplus one fifty if they play Denver,
it's close to a coin flip.I would do that right now.
I think the Lakers are getting outof it, and you are not getting

(12:22):
those prices on Lebrono A d.Once the Lakers are in the Western Conference
finals. To win the Western ConferenceMVP and then double those numbers for Finals
MVP, they're better than what you'regetting out of the Laker future price and
John, there is no way thatthe Lakers win the NBA Finals. A
Lebronno or AD is not winning thataward. It's gonna be the one to
do them. And I think AnthonyDavis, with how impactful he's been in

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the winds for the Lakers, Ithink it would be certainly Anthony Davis in
that circumstance. Who do you thinkthey will be playing? I mean,
speaking of the next step, eitherGolden State or the Lakers. Who would
they be playing in the Western ConferenceBecause Denver started off great at home.
They got the first two wins,then Phoenix gets the next two and this

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is all of a sudden the seriesagain, what does that say more about?
Does it say more about the Nuggetsthe Sons? What is this series
told you so far about both theseteams? And which one do you think
potentially comes out of this series?The victor? You know what? They've
A crazy part of this is isJokis probably had the second best game of
his career yesterday and totally forgotten becauseof the idiocy on at Courtside with the

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Sun's owner and the fact that theylost the game. And I think if
your Phoenix way that you play therest of the series is you know what,
I goes for forty and we cankeep him under ten assists, we're
probably going to win the game.And I actually think that's probably right.
At this point. Denver's supporting castI really don't think is very good.

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I think Murray when Murray is tooinconsistent at this point, but when he's
on, he's obviously great. Nay, actually it would be him and Hard
and they're very similar at this point. U Murder's obviously younger, but he's
more consistent than hardened that this RayHarden's kind of the the If he's inconsistent,
it's going to be on the goodend, and more of the times
than not, he's just going tobe average. But I don't love that

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supporting cast. They don't really haveany death. But the problem on the
Phoenix side is if duranthon Booker arenot going for seventy five between the two
of them, you're there. They'renot. They're not beating Denver twice.
So I have no ideas, John, I really have no idea. I'm
sitting on a pre Phoenix number frombefore the KD trade to win the Western

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Conference. But when it's all saidand done, I don't think either of
these teams are beating the Lakers inthe West Finals. So I like does
find a way in this series.I think Phoenix lives a series in seven
games, But I really have noconfidence either way in this series because they're
pre even teams. They each havewell. Denver has one incredible player,

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Phoenix has two incredible players, andJamal Burry's really the X factors of this
whole thing at this rate. Talkingwith Jeff Parles of Vson on the Gambreller
hotline, follow him, add toJeff Parles on Twitter, and again check
outus work over at Vison. Iwant to make a shift over to the
NFL just real quick because we havethe schedule release coming in a few days.

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That's going to happen Thursday at eighto'clock. But we're at that point
of the season now and the NFLDraft is over, most of the free
agents are signed. We could getsome trades from now until the start of
the season, but really rosters seemedto be pretty well set after all of
the off season, all the movesthat were made. What team are you
feeling better about or certainly one thatyou have your eye on when it comes

(15:41):
to futures markets after the off season. All right, well, let's start
with let's start with the local anglehere. The Eagles are still plus money
to win the NFC East. That'slunacy. That's complete and utter lunacy.
If you can get the Eagles towin the NFC East to plus money grabbed
now, it's not going to bethere by week one. It isn't set
because the Cowboys are worse because theircoaching staff somehow even manage to get worse

(16:04):
from last year. The Giants arenot in the same league as the Eagles,
and the Commanders are starting Sam Hawleat quarterback. That's all you need
to know. That is far andaway to me the best value future by
a wide margin, because unless ifsomething Bizarro happens with the Eagles or Jalen
Hurts gets hurt, God forbid thathappens, they are so clearly the best

(16:27):
team in that division and so clearlythe best team in the NFC. Now.
I don't want to take an NFSCfuture on them because, as you
know, John, Waukee, thingscan happen in the playoffs, but for
a seven team game sample size,unless if something really really unless of Dallas,
Dallas would have to play so farabove their heads. Eagles would have
to play so below their heads thatDallas would win the division. I think

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Philly it plus money to win theNFC East is a gift. It's a
gift, John. So that isright now now future is wise, that's
the best bet on the board,NFL wise. I don't even think in
particularly close. What about the Ravens, because they're a team that I thought,
you know, if Lamar Jackson ishealthy, they signed into that contract
that this is a team that couldcertainly bounce back. This season I think

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performed very well, but they havemade a bunch of moves that have also
helped that. They got another widereceiver in the draft, they have a
Shot Bateman who's now healthy, andsigned Odell Beckham, even though maybe overpaying
them. Thoughts in the Ravens andtheir off season because it was a lot
of turmoil and unsure of who theirquarterback might be because of the non contract

(17:37):
with Lamar Jackson through most of theoff season. But now that it's all
settled and they have seemingly a lotof these great pieces, how are you
feeling about Baltimore heading into this season? I mean, what are you What
is Odell Beckham at this point?Do we have any idea? No,
not zero, and we've done wehave no clue. I mean, I

(18:02):
think Beckham's a number two at bestat this rate of is point in his
career. Again, they did draftthe receiver in the draft, so that
that was good. So you aregetting the weapons that you need to put
around Lamar and John. Look,I think the big problem for them is
they're clearly number two in that division. I know, I know you are

(18:22):
a Cincinnati hater, but the Bengalsaren't better than the Ravens still and the
Steeler. I think the Steelers hada really good offseason, and Kenny pick
In by the end of the lastyear looked like a totally reasonable starting quarterback.
And if Pike it takes a leapforward. The Steelers finishing second in
Baltimore finishing third is absolutely in therealm of possibility. John, Here,

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here's the problem with any of theseANC teams that aren't, in all honesty
at this point, Kansas City orCincinnati to me that and I'll throw Jacksonville
in there because they're so much betterthan everyone else in that division. When
you're dealing with basically the three teamsin the AFC East now and I think
our playoff caliber teams and Buffalo,the Jets in Miami, you throw Baltimore
in there, you throw Pittsburgh gettingthere, and you throw the Chargers,

(19:08):
and I guess you can throw Denverand the Raiders in there, even though
I think those teams are clipped beloweveryone. I mentioned, your margin for
error is very slim, and Iknow less you're re overreacted and said,
oh, the AFC West is gonnabe the best division of all time.
They're I'm gonna win double digeons andthe Broncos are terrible. In the Raiders
under the team, we only endedup with two teams winning double dingeons and
a division. There is a realisticpath this year where eleven and six might

(19:33):
not be good enough to make thepost seed. I don't think it happens
because I think there'll be enough cannibalizationof the teams within the conference, but
there is a path that eleven andsix is not good enough. So look,
I think on the AFC side,except for Kansas City and Cincinnati,
who I think are very much clearof everyone else, and Jacksonville is very

(19:56):
much clear of everyone in their division, it is going to be a ridiculous
race with again three from the AFCAS, two from the AFC North um and
I guess I'll throw all three andfrom the AFC West, even though I
don't think the Raiders and Broncos arein that for the remaining five playoffs spots.
Talking with Jeff Parles on the GamblerHot Mine. You can follow him

(20:18):
at Jeff Parles on Twitter. Checkout his work over at VS. In
final question for you, any placefor tonight in Major League Baseball. Come
on, John, that's a no, isn't it? Hey? I can
give you baseball thoughts on Macro here. You can do that as well.
The Brave, however you want totake that, that's fine. The Braves

(20:42):
are the best. I know,the Rays of the best record, but
the Braves are the best team inbaseball. The Padres and the Dodgers of
the second and third best teams inbaseball, whatever order you want to put
in them, then it's then Tampa, and then there is a significant gap.
Um. I think that the NLthe NL playoff race is going to

(21:03):
be fascinating, John, because themL Central champion I think at this point's
gonna win eighty five games. Idon't think any of those teams are any
good. So that obviously leaves therace into the wild cards, where getting
the sixth seed is going to bea lot better than getting the five seed
this year. And as we know, and I worked out great for the
Phillies last year, where the sixthseed got them all the way to the

(21:26):
World Series. Granted, the fiveseed last year got to the NLC.
Yes, but I think the differencebetween a potential trip to Milwaukee or Saint
Lewis if the Cardinals somehow turn itaround. I'm not buying Pittsburgh or the
Cubs. I mean, that's agift if you get the six, so
that an NL race. I don'tthink the Mets are particularly good. I

(21:47):
don't think the Phillies are particularly good. The Marlins are like minus fifty,
but only one game under five hundreds, so that will come back to earth
at some point. The Diamondbacks Idon't think are long term legitimate, so
hey, look they're they're could endup being three pretty mediocre teams in the
National League playoffs this year, which, again, knowing I complained, the

(22:10):
National people didn't complain as much asI did. But look, I mean,
if you get a second straight yearof a one hundred win team losing
to a team in the eighties anda wildcard round, I still don't know
how this format behooves anyone except forthe team. It would be hard.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, look I look, I look again.

(22:30):
You know you know my thoughts onlast year, where you get a
six and the five in the NationalLeague. It worked itself out in the
American League, so all the peoplethat wanted to back. It can point
that I hate the system worked theway. Who should have warned the one
v. Two? Okay, youknew Houston wasn't gonna pay all the playoffs
series and the Yankees and the Guardiansplayed a five game series that lasted eleven
days. Of course, the betterteam is going to find a way to
win that with all that rest inthere. So I look, I really

(22:53):
do think the NL playoffs, John, I thought it was gonna be as
good as a top the top.I thought it was gonna be as good
as it has ever been in theNL. There are three teams in the
NL, and then there's a hackableout of mediocrity. Well that's great baseball
thoughts from Jeff Parles. You canagain find him at Vison, follow him

(23:14):
at Jeff Parles and Jeff, thankyou for coming on and sharing your your
lovely baseball knowledge with us and givingus some place for today. I always
appreciate it. I appreciate it,buddy, Always a pleasure. Maybe I'll
talk to you next week and thenI'm just ding for a few weeks.
So, oh, just a fewweeks. I thought you were really gonna
milk this wedding thing. I thoughtyou're gonna milk him for like a month

(23:37):
or so. I mean, Imean, I'm away from I'm away from
the visa desk for like twenty fourdays or something. Wow, are you
even allowed to do that? Theydidn't say. No, it's not that
it's not that much. I overexaggeratedit, but it is. It is
an extended period done. Wow.Well, I'm sure gonna miss your your

(24:00):
baseball plays and knowledge when you comeon the show when you are gone a
few weeks. I know, Iknow you, and and and the millions
in the Philadelphia. Jeff, thankyou so much. Appreciate it. Of
course, potty talk, you said, John follow him add to Jeff Parles
on Twitter.