05-22-23 Line Change Open

Jon Jansen talks all things #NBA, #MLB, #NFL, and more.

Episode Transcript

(00:03):
Sports talk that has never been donebefore in Philadelphia. We're breaking down the
live action and helping you make yourlive wagers at the right moment. Follow
all the action right now on theline Chaine with John Janson. Both series

(00:38):
in the Conference Finals of the NBA, both essentially over after just three games
each. First on Saturday, theDenver Nuggets go up three oh against the
Lakers, then Miami up three OZagainst the Boston Celtics, setting up what
is not likely going to be bossare likely going to be Miami and Denver

(01:03):
in the NBA Finals, So we'regonna talk about that. Obviously, there
are some betting lines that we cango over with those now, and we
can actually start taking a look aheadI think the finals MVP winner, also
taking a look at NBA Championship oddsas well, essentially what the books are
saying when it comes to this series. And also we have baseball plays for
tonight, and of course OTAs havebeguns, so that means we have a

(01:27):
reason to talk about football now.There were some rule changes, there were
some different things that were just approvedby the NFL owners, so we'll go
over that as well, especially aThursday night football and a rule that was
affected by the Eagles game against theforty nine ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Two guests on the program for today, starting at seven o'clock, Mark
Henry Jr. We'll join us andwe'll talk to some football and baseball with

(01:51):
him, and then at seven thirtyall Things NBA with Sean Bernard. I
do want to start off with whathappened over the weekend. Of course,
Nuggets getting a win, then Bostonor then Miami. I keep saying Boston,
it should be Boston. It's incrediblethat it's not Boston. And I
think with Miami, you know,we got infatuated with Jimmy Butler and it

(02:14):
was just Jimmy Butler, and Ithink we were just not discrediting Miami.
But at some point we thought,Okay, Butler's going to stop playing that
great at some point, right,Butler's not going to put up forty something
every night, fifty something every night. He's not going to be a dominant
player every night. At some point, the supporting cast is going to have

(02:35):
to play well. And even thoughthey have him playing well, they've never
had led a game, so tospeak. They have not been the soul
leaders when it comes to scoring,when it comes to their games, and
I think because the supporting cast doesn'thave a lot of big names, they
didn't play well during the regular season. Like I can also say that as

(02:57):
a fact that during the regular seasonthey didn't have a great supporting cast.
They are an eight seed for areason. And playoff Jimmy Butler's playoff Jimmy
Butler. You understand that we sawthat in the bubble all the way up
to the NBA Finals against the Lakers, so we knew playoff Jimmy could have
maybe caused some disturbances, and hedid. But this is to the point

(03:20):
where, you know what, Miamididn't have a chance against Boston or Philly.
Those two teams were of course betterduring the regular season, better teams,
better rosters, and Jimmy Butler justcan't carry Miami. Well, Jimmy
Butler doesn't have to carry Miami.And no, we get infatuated with star
players doing amazing things in the playoffs. And you know, Jimmy Butler now,
even though in a tongue in cheekway, getting to like the Michael

(03:44):
Jordan comparisons, like this guy's justa dog who when it comes to the
playoffs very clutch, and he's thereason why Miami's this good, but he's
also the only reason and they can'tbe a team like Boston. And then
here comes Game three, Gabe Vincentleads the team in scoring, and Bam
out of Bio has another rate gameand Duncan Robinson now who has passed Lebron

(04:06):
James for most three pointers in anNBA playoffs with the Miami Heats. That
is incredible that Dugan Robinson, whowas not even in the rotation pretty much
all season because he was that bad, works his way back into the rotation,
back into getting significant minutes because TylerHero is out. Tyler Hero has

(04:28):
not been playing, and he comesin and does an excellent job, and
he's been a big reason coming offthe bench that Miami has been really good.
And also Caleb Martin as well.Miami's more than just Jimmy Butler.

(04:50):
And I don't know how trustworthy someof these pieces can be. A Gabe
Vincent, a Max Streuss, aBam out of Bio, although out of
Bio been playing very very well throughoutthe playoffs, so he's been great.
But Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin.How much can they continue to get out
of these guys. I think fornow we do have to account for this

(05:13):
team being much better than their fortyto win regular season record. I mean,
they're much better than that. Andthis is not just a Jimmy Butler
thing. Miami's just good. AndI don't know what to attribute that too.
If that's just really good coaching,if that's just turning up the dial
during the playoffs, I don't know, because this team certainly wasn't showing up

(05:36):
in the regular season, but it'sshowing up now. And I know Boston
has had their issues. I meanBoston, we have highlighted that over and
over again, why the Sixers hada chance, and even I think we
should have been talking about why Miamieven had a chance. Boston has been
struggling. Coaching has been a problem. Joe Missoula has certainly been questioned numerous

(05:57):
times for things that he's done,things that he has not done, adjustments
day he has not made, saidJoe Mazola has been in question. Boston
defensively, I mean they are givingup a ton of points and one hundred
and twenty eight points in Game three. That's another example. Of it.
It happened against the Sixers. Itreally started to show up against Atlanta when

(06:17):
Atlanta was able to take a coupleof games from them. And there are
two stars in the biggest moments don'tshow up, and so we could talk
about and Beat being like that,which absolutely fourth quarter did not show up.
James Harden and fourth quarters sometimes didnot show up either. We had
two very good fourth quarters. Butas much as we can say that those

(06:43):
two and Beat and Harden had issues, and man, they were the butt
of a joke for the past weekor so. Tatum and Brown step right
up, you're the next joke.I mean Tatum six eight, fourteen points.
He disappeared a lot during the sixor series. Obviously, he had

(07:05):
a great Game seven and a greatfourth quarter in Game six. It doesn't
excuse all of the other times thathe was absent in the fourth quarter and
did not play well. You can'texcuse that. And Jason Tatum again just
doesn't get the ball. Laton gamesand Jaylen Brown was awful. He's been

(07:26):
for the most part, really goodfor Boston, but this game not great
at all. Six for seventeen,twelve points. Boston did not have a
shot in this game, Miami fromthe on set putting on him did not
have a single quarter under thirty points, and by halftime this game was essentially

(07:46):
over. So Boston has their issues, and so I think context needs to
be given to that as well,because then when we apply everything we've seen
from Miami into the next series againstDenver, that's obviously something that's that needs
to be brought up. Because Denver'sdever has been playing better. Their MVP,

(08:07):
their two time MVP, has lookedlike a two time MVP during the
playoffs. Jamal Murray continues to bea great number two option for Denver,
and the rest of their team hasdone great around Yoki. Nukis didn't even
have a great game, and theteam around him did extremely well, especially
Jamal Murray. It was coming offof major knee injury, and it's pretty

(08:31):
remarkable that he has been this goodbecause we've seen some major injuries before.
Obviously, a tourn acl isn't Ithink a death sentence for a career anymore.
Certainly, it's hard to come backfrom and you don't you'll always come
back from it one hundred percent likeyou were previously before. It takes some
time. But Jamal Murray has beenexcellent. He was excellent in Game three,

(08:54):
and Denver's overall playing they were theywere just as good. I mean,
they were one of the best teamsin the NBA this season record wise,
and then in the playoffs they haveupped their game even more. And
credit given to Yogic and the entiresupporting cast around him, especially highlighting Jamal
Murray. So it's a different beast. Going into Boston was a great team,

(09:15):
but I didn't know if they weregoing to play great, if they
were still a great team, ifthey could find that again as they got
into the playoffs, because they didstruggle in the second half of the regular
season. Denver doesn't have them,so it's going to be different. And
I know Miami the roster is notgreat, and of course the same way

(09:39):
we looked at it with Philly andwe looked at it with Boston. Those
two rosters were better than Miami andthey lost Denver same thing, better roster
than Miami. But it's just Miamifound this magic that just somehow won't go
away. And when does it becomemagic and incredible and a miracle type run

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for an eight seed and just maybegave Vincent, Max Drews, Duck and
Robinson, Kala, Martin, KevinLove all around, Jimmy Butler. They're
just very good. And so wetake a look at the odds right now
that you can find. Obviously it'snot look aheadlines, but you can still
get finals MVP winner. It's postedall throughout the playoffs. Championship odds posted

(10:26):
throughout the playoffs as well, andnow we essentially have just Denver and Miami,
now Boston and Lakers. Boston sixteento one, Lakers thirty five to
one. The one number I findkind of weird, just to take a
look at series odds still for theEastern Conference, in Western Conference, I
find it odd that the Nuggets areminus five thousand. I mean, that

(10:50):
is exactly what it should be becausea team is never coming back. I
think in the NBA playoffs down ohthree, it's never happened. So I
get that, But this Miami numberis odd because minus five thousand for the
Nuggets makes sense because the Nuggets area great team. They're up three zero,

(11:15):
perfect sense. Why is Miami onlyminus fourteen hundred. That's such an
odd number to me because it shouldbe about the same the implied odds due
to the team down three zero hasnever won a series before. Why is
that number a lot shorter to thepoint where, look, I never want

(11:35):
to say that throwing a bunch ofmoney on something is juiced up as fourteen
hundred. But it's just odd tosee that number because the probability of it
just doesn't match the actual number there, and it's a lot shorter than it
should be. I mean, theCeltics at eight to one to win this
series, to win the Eastern Conference, they're down three zero? What are

(11:58):
we doing with that? So thatnumber does not make any sense to me.
The Lakers fourteen to one makes senseclose to what it should be.
But yeah, it's just been thatway with Boston the entire time. Esp
and analytics remember had Miami is athree percent chance. Then I think after
game one, or I think afterboth games they still only had a thirty
five percent chance according to ESPN analytics. There's just been a lot of this

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Miami's not that good. Boston's greatand could eventually show it, but this
is to the point where Boston's justnot good at the moment, and it's
just crazy to see those odds stillaren't reflective of that, even as they're
down three ZH but Finals winner,Finals MVP winner, Yoki's the favorite mins

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one seventy seven Jimmy Butler plus twothirty and Jamal Murray nine to one.
This is Look if you think MiamiJimmy Butler plus two thirty, no matter
what happened in the series, JimmyButler's going to get all of the credit
the way he's been given all thecredit. Now, He's been given all

(13:07):
the credit for what Miami's done.Even though I think the team Ronda's playing
extremely well. I think again,Gay Vince has been playing well, Max
Drews, Dugan Robinson, Caleb Martinand bam Adebayo has been fantastic. That's
I think the reason why Miami isin this spot. It's not just all
Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler's been fantastic, but it's that supported cast that has
done so well. But despite allof that, and despite the numbers being

(13:33):
right there in front of everyone ofhow good these guys are doing, Jimmy
Butler gets all the credit and we'llalways get all the credit. He's looked
at as a playoff type performer andthat he comes up in clutch moments,
and look, he's going to havethose clutch moments in a series. So
plus two thirty for Jimmy Butler.If you think Miami is going to win
that series, that would be theplay. It's not going to be anybody.

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But obviously with Denver gets a lotof the credit. But Murray is
a great story as well, andwe obviously saw he can take over games.
It's not like for the heat BamAuto Bio doesn't necessarily take over games.
Scoring wise, he can. He'sa decent score, but not in
the same way that Jamal Murray canor Jamal Murray will go off for thirty

(14:18):
seven points and he's the leading shotmaker. He has the most field goal
attempts, shoots well from three likeMurray is capable of doing that, and
he's had good playoff performances before.He's been a good playoff player. But
he just gets the volume that hecan do it because Jokurs doesn't take that

(14:39):
many shots. Obviously, he's anMVP player, so he's going to take
a lot of shots. But JamalMurray is more of the I would say
volume score yokis during the season,I think attempted if I can see fifteen,
and that's actually down. He attemptedfourteen point eight shots in the regular

(15:03):
season, and that is down fromthe seventeen and then eighteen in the previous
two years. And a lot ofthat was because he had to and a
lot of that last year was becauseJamal Murray was out. Jamal Murray's not
out, Jamal Murray's in. AndJamal Murray is a great scorer. Look,
Yokich is the overall better offensive player, but Jamal Murray is the pure

(15:26):
score. He's very good, andhe can compete with Yokich on that level,
and I think he gets the volumefor that. So nine to one
for Murray is enticing because he issuch a big part of their game.
It's just that Yoki. Look,he's the best player maybe on the planet

(15:46):
right now. And I know thosediscussions they hurt a little bit to have
about Yokich because I have been sostarn on. I don't think he's the
best player because he hasn't done anythinglike this yet. He's been finding the
playoffs, but Denver hasn't done anythinglike this. They haven't been able to
I think pass a certain threshold thatI've needed them to see, and I
think they are completely dispelling all ofthat pretty much right in front of us.

(16:11):
And so I think Denver, nowwith the success that they've had,
Yokas has to be looked at asone of, if not the best players
on the planet. And his numbershave been fantastic. Even in a game
when it was all Jamal Murray,Yoki still had twenty four points, eight
assists, six rebounds, So veryinvolved, very upfront with how much involvement
he has in the offense, andof course the statute is always going to

(16:33):
look great even in not his bettergames. So Yoki's minus one seventy seven
makes sense. It's just enticing becauseof the offensive player Jamal Murray is,
and I think he should have agood matchup against Day Vincent and Max Streuss.
I think he should be a littlebit more of a focal point because
bam Adebayo small, so I thinkYoki's physically is going to give bam some

(16:56):
trouble. But bam Adebayo is agood defensive player, at least a good
enough athlete that he was pivotal.I remember in that in the Bubble when
they were taking on the Bucks,even might have been before that, but
they were taking on the Bucks inthe playoffs and they won a series because
Autobio was really good against Jannis untentTokombo. He was very good, athletic

(17:21):
enough to keep up with them,also big enough to deal with the physicality
that he that he brings. SoAutobio has been tasked with some really good
offensive players, obviously none like Yokich, and so the passing ability is one
thing. And look we've seen eventhe Lakers Anthony Davis, I think has
done pretty well against Yokich. It'sjust that he's such a great player.

(17:44):
He finds space in the floor.He's such a great passer. They have
to count for that. And we'veseen his ability to make tough shots as
well. That has been on display, I think in this Lakers series.
So he's going to be tough toguard. But again, I think the
matchup is gonna be a lot easierfor jam Murray. When Max Druse and
gave Vinton two guys that I wouldn'tcall good defenders by any means, Even
though Miami's a team is a gooddefensive team, I think Murray is the

(18:08):
one who's going to have the chanceto take a higher volume of shots to
get better looks, and I thinkMurray could have a few games where he
is the leading scorer for Denver.When we look ahead to the NBA Finals,
as we're doing right now on theline change Fox Sports the Gambler.
My name is John Janson. Followme at j jetson thirty four on Twitter.
Also make sure two subscribe to ourYouTube channel. We haven't put shorts

(18:33):
up there live videos. You cansee the line change live right now.
In addition to also hearing US oneor two five FM fourteen eighty am always
streaming on the iHeartRadio app. Butlooking ahead to the NBA Finals, like
the Devin Nuggets are going to bethe favorites right now, they're minus two
thirty twin the NBA Championship, theheat plus two twenty five, and again

(18:55):
I think Murray could be an interestingone. When it comes to Miami,
I just don't because it's such arevolving door of characters who are going to
star that night, because Gabe Vincentwasn't the star of the show, even
for the supporting cast in the lastfew games, and then it becomes the
leading scorer, so it's just Ihave no idea and look, one of

(19:17):
the higher players on the board.So Bama to Bayo is the second Miami
Heat player at twenty five to one. Tyler Hero is the third Miami Heat
player, and it's a way downthe board, but that's at one hundred
to one. It's just too hardto guess if it's going to be Max
Struth or Gabe Vincent or Duncan Robinson. And to be honest, those guys

(19:44):
are going to kind of take turnseach night on which one's going to be.
And I think Caleb Martin again areally really important piece for Miami off
the bench, even he has hadbig games. So it's just hard to
guess. And again it's credit isalways going to be given to Jimmy Butler.
So with finals MVP, you canlook if you look ahead far enough,

(20:07):
especially when you're getting into maybe thesecond rounds or sometime early in the
first round, you can find somevalue. I don't think you're going to
find any here. I cannot seedefinitely on the Miami side. Canna see
a player going to backdooring this andsneaking up in the MVP conversation the same
way like an Andre Igudala did forGolden State. There just isn't I don't
think that player on Miami. Andagain, Jimmy Butler is going to play

(20:30):
well if they win the series.Jimmy Butlers has to play extremely well and
he's going to be given a lotof the credit. Even if sometimes he
is not the best player that nightfor Miami, He's still going to be
big enough part of it that everysingle game, he's going to be the
reason why if they do win gamesend up winning. Yokich also is a
reason for that, but again,I think the volume for Jamal Murray that

(20:52):
is something enticing. At nine toone, so those are the NBA Finals
odds. Again, those are justfutures odds looking ahead. But both teams
are up three zero and it's likelygoing to be Denver and Miami and a
what a complete letdown for Boston morethan anybody. And I really hope that
Boston ends up getting as much hate, as much vitriol as the Sixers did.

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And I know the Sixers get itbecause the Sixers haven't been passed the
second round and they lost in Gameseven and embat and hardened absolutely coward.
But for as much as I saythey cowered and did not step up to
the moment in Game six, atthe end of Game six and in Game
seven, I can say that aboutBoston in every single game, every single

(21:41):
game this series. Boston, reallythe problem has been and I hate to
save this so bluntly and in anend, in this manner, but they've
been essentially cowards in the moment Tatumstill doesn't get the ball in the fourth
quarter. They're guys like Jaylen Brown, terrible in Game three, defensively giving

(22:04):
up one hundred and twenty eight points, getting beat bad over and over again,
as Jaylen Brown has mentioned, gettingbeat by Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson,
saying, ah, those guys havehad a great series. Hats off
to him. But we're better thanthat, are you? Are you better
than that? Yeah? Marcus smart You Tatum owned the perimeter, should

(22:29):
be able to guard those guys,and you can't. So what the heck's
going on? And there's only somuch. There is only so much I
can blame on coaching. This ismore and maybe it isn't. Maybe it
isn't more than that, Maybe itis. John Missoula did not end up
getting this team prepared enough for theNBA Playoffs, their offense became disconnected.

(22:51):
They might have just gotten figured out, and Missoula has been too late to
adjust or has not been able tofind the right adjustments. There is obviously
something clearly wrong, So Joe Missoulahas responsibility in it. But at a
certain point you get the responsibility ofJoe Missoula and some of the offensive woes
and especially defensive woes and things don'tlook connected. That's on him, but

(23:15):
not showing up in these moments,and I think kind of hiding in big
moments in the fourth quarter. Especiallyfor Jason Tatum. It has been something
that he's done for a couple ofyears now, from last year into this
year, and those problems persisting tome are more than just Joe Missoula.

(23:37):
It's the same thing I said withIbid in Game seven and game at the
end of the Game six, hedidn't get the ball, and part of
that responsibility shouldn't maybe be Doc Riversgoing, hey, get the big man
the ball. He's our best player. But and Beads an MVP and Jason

(23:59):
Tatum as an MVP caliber player.Those players, all they gotta do is
say give me the ball. I'mgoing to be the one with the ball
in this situation. That is somethinga player, if they are willing to
get the ball and willing to shoot, they will get the opportunity to do
it because their teammates know, Okay, yeah, we have to get Our

(24:21):
offense usually runs around you. Wehave to get it to you, to
me, says. There's not awillingness there, and there's a bit of
hiding from it. So as muchas we clowned ebid for it and clowned
hardened and clown the Sixers and itheard it from everybody and it was justified
and completely fair, man, Bostonneeds to get every bit of that as
well, because this, quite frankly, is embarrassing. They're good basketball team,

(24:48):
They're great basketball team. This rosteris better than the Sixers. They
think the Sixers were close, it'sjust matchup wise, did not end up
matching up with Boston, never have. But they're one of the best lineups
in the entire NBA. And nomatter how bad your coaching is, you

(25:10):
have to be able to come awaywith one of these games. I don't
care how well Miami is shooting orhow well they are playing, they are
too good for that, and they'vecome away empty handed, and they could
end up getting swept on Tuesday,which is kind of hard to believe.
Speaking of sweeps, we do havethe opportunity for one of those tonight.

(25:32):
Just tune in again to the linechange Fox Sports the Gambler. We have
the Denver Nuggets taking on the Lakers. This was five and a half points
for the Lakers in Game three.That's been the standard pretty much for both
home teams. When Denver was athome, five and a half was the
number and Lakers five and a halfin Game three, it's down to three.

(25:56):
Look, I don't think for me, at least, there is a
good way to bet these games,except for obviously player props. But if
you're just looking to bet the moneyline or looking to bet the spread,
I don't have a clue. Youwould say at some point that the way
this can progress that three games,Denver one and it's tough to win four

(26:22):
in a row, and the Lakersare good enough to take one from Denver,
and maybe they're able to do so. And obviously there's a quote going
around Denver is not taking this lightly, doesn't want to give them any hope.
Every team says that. So Idon't like using that kind of narrative
in a play like this because everyteam is going to say that. But
look, Lakers have their backs againstthe wall, and when that happens,

(26:45):
sometimes you do get better performances outof players, And so maybe we see
that out of the Lakers. Idon't know if that's the case, I
wouldn't want to bet it, andI don't want to bet it. I
think one player you can look atAnthony Davis. He is at twenty six

(27:07):
and a half. Obviously, AnthonyDavis twenty eight points in his last game.
He does this off and on thingwhere he's great in one game in
a series and then bad the next. So he had forty points in game
one, town to eighteen points ingame two, then twenty eight in game
three. Look again, back againstthe wall scenario. I don't know.

(27:29):
Maybe the Lakers do just kind ofroll over and just accept the fact that
they are not going to win thisseries and they lose this game. But
Anthony Davis, I think with theirback against the wall, I think he
puts in a good performance. Twentysix and a half, I think he
goes over that number. I'm notworried about the on again, off again
Anthony Davis. He's going to haveto take a lot of shots. He's
going to have to play well forthe Lakers to have a chance in this

(27:52):
game, and I think he doesso. I like Anthony Davis twenty six
and a half, And obviously youcan go with any one of the Lakers
role players because they do have againat times, guys that played really well.
Ry Hachimura is one of those.He even had twelve field goal attempts
in game number three, so he'sgetting attempts, he's getting a lot of

(28:15):
playing time. He's at double digitattempts in all three games. This was
the first game that his filical percentagewasn't above seventy percent. In the game
he was five for twelve the othergames eight for ten in Game two and
eight for eleven in Game three.But the minutes went up, the scoring
went up, at least the attemptswent up. So Riya Chimura is one

(28:36):
I'm completely fine going with over thirteenand a half as well. I think
he's been for me, the oneI keep locking in on throughout this postseason
and throughout this series in general,and I think he's going to get back
on track, and look, Idon't know about an eight for ten,
but the volume is there enough thateven on a bad shooting night, five
of twelve still had thirteen points.He's getting the attempts, he's getting the

(29:00):
volume enough to get thirteen and ahalf. So I think Ruy Hatchamore over
thirteen and a half is my playas well. So I'm a little bit
on the Lakers again. I don'twant to trust them when it comes to
actually betting the spread, so I'mjust gonna stick with a couple of player
props, thinking of the Lakers playwell, Lakers get closed, potentially win
this game and at least take onefrom Denver and we go back to Denver.
So I'm taking Anthony Davis over twentysix and a half, Ruy Hatchamura

(29:22):
over thirteen and a half, andthose are my two plays for tonight.
We'll obviously talk more NBA playoffs withSean Bernard coming up at seven thirty.
Coming up next, though, thePhillies end up taking a couple from Chicago
and a couple of good pitching performances, so we'll get into that's if there
are some now encouraging signs or Ithink, honestly, if you want to

(29:45):
have a large encouraging sign yet tolook at tonight's games. So we will
look at tonight's games. Zach Wheeleron the mount against Arizona. Can the
Phillies keep up their momentum? We'lltalk about that. And of course I
have a couple of plays for tonight'sincluding one under dog on the road that
I really like. We'll talk aboutthose coming up next year. On the

(30:07):
line change,