December 1, 2025 • 9 mins
Will Jay Collins enter Florida's race for governor? Southeast Politics Publisher Janelle Irwin Taylor joins us to discuss why he hasn't announced he's running yet.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's go to the highline and bring in the publisher
of Southeast Politics, Janelle Irwin Taylor. You can find all
of her work and a whole lot more at Southeast
politics dot com and you can follow her on X
two E Chanelle Irwin fl Janelle, it's great to talk
to you this morning. And look, even though the holidays
are here and you would think the news cycle would
(00:21):
slow down, that just doesn't seem to be the case
these days, including here in Florida with Florida politics, and
the big question is when will Lieutenant Governor j Collins
make a decision on a run for governor. His commercial
it's not his, it's some group behind it, but a
commercial highlighting all of his accomplishments and telling Floridians to
(00:45):
call this number and thank him for the great work
he's been doing. That continues to run. But we still
don't have a decision.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Why not, Probably because it's not looking so good. I mean,
first of all, I know people respond best to hard numbers, right,
and Collins's name has been pulled alongside alongside Byron Donald
several times and he's always in the single digits below
(01:16):
single digits, I might add, and that goes for other
candidates who are already in the race as well. You know,
Paul Renner, for example, is not pulling so hot alongside
Donald's either. Donald is just running away with the lead.
He is very clearly the GOP front runner. And the
only thing that really remains at this point is if
(01:39):
you have the you know, so called DeSantis lane. The
problem is Jake Collins is not raising enough money to
warrant DeSantis endorsing him at this point. But he's not
going to be able to raise the money that he
needs to get DeSantis until he gets to Santis. That's
(01:59):
kind of which came first, the chicken or the egg scenario.
That's not looking very good for him. And honestly, they've
said that that a decision is imminent and they you know,
there is no indication of what that decision is going
to be. But it seems very difficult at this point
in the game too for Collins to carve himself out
(02:22):
Alaine in this race. And then you have to ask yourself,
even if Desantus did come out today and say, you
know what, I endorse my lieutenant governor, is that enough,
because you've really got a governor who's Lai Duck at
this point. So you know, there's the cards are stacked
against him, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
But there has definitely been one report after another over
the past couple of weeks highlighting the fact that Governor
DeSantis does not want Byron Donald's to win the nomination.
He has been trying behind the scenes to get somebody
else to run against him. He didn't want to endorse
former House Speaker Paul Rennery. Ton't even really think he
(03:01):
should enter the race, despite the fact that Paul Renner
did a lot of desantisis bidding when he was serving
as House Speaker, and it sounds like, for whatever reason,
he isn't ready to get behind his own lieutenant governor
to go up against Donald. It's just it's a very
(03:22):
interesting dynamic.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Well, he doesn't want to back somebody who's going to
embarrass him, right, So if you have if you come
in and you go all in for a candidate and
then they end up pulling single digits in an election,
that's a huge embarrassment. That's not a legacy you want
to walk away from your term as governor with. So
you know there's that to consider, and then also consider
(03:45):
this Paul Renner, for whatever it's worth, has said that
he'll get DeSantis' endorsement eventually, and you know, so maybe
he's just assuming there's a biding of time going on
or something. You also have to con that are external
factors in this race as well, and that is the
man in the White House, Yeah, Donald Trump. The reason
(04:07):
that Byron Donald is doing as well as he is
has raised the money that he has. He's sitting on
twenty eight million dollars cash on hand. He's hard you know,
he's hardly spent any money so far. You know, that's
all there because he has the quote unquote complete and
total endorsement from President Donald Trump. So what happens if
(04:30):
let's say, a trove of Epstein files comes out and something, yeah,
you know, something in there. You know, it seems like
nothing ever takes this president down and removes his base support,
but it is starting to impact his approval ratings. They're
at historic lows, despite what the President claims. So you know,
(04:52):
that could be a potential wild card in this race
that dings Donalds enough to create a lane for somebody else. Happens,
I don't know, We'll see.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
We're joined by the publisher of Southeast Politics Janelle Irwin Taylor.
One problem the Lieutenant governor would have is the timing too.
You know, there were a lot of expectations that he
would enter the race back in the beginning of October.
That didn't happen. If you enter the race now, you
got the holidays right around the corner, and I think
(05:22):
between Thanksgiving and the New Year, people just they start
to really tune out the news and politics a bit.
They're just in a different mode. So it'd be a
really rough time to get into the race just because
of all of that.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Yeah. Look, I mean as a media executive, I can
tell you defensitively that the time between Thanksgiving, even the
week before Thanksgiving and the New Year is not a
great time for people to break news because there is,
you know, historically low levels of engagement among the American public. However,
news happens whether you want it to or not, and
(06:00):
the news cycle does not come to a complete grinding halt,
and if something happens, it's going to happen. So I
think with Jake Collins, if he's going to do anything,
he waits until after the New Year, he's waited too long.
If he's going to do it. He's really got kind
of this week and next week to have people still
somewhat engage, and then after that it's going to be
(06:22):
hard to get people. You know, donors aren't going to
pick up their phone. So you know, he's really got
to make if he really should have already made his move.
The apathy, I think tells you everything that you need
to know about the trajectory of this campaign.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Though, how much will Democrats in this state be paying
attention to the special election in Tennessee which happens tomorrow.
This congressional race, and look, it's a special election, so
there are only so many takeaways that I think you
can safely take from these results. But you've got a
(06:58):
safe republic looking Saint Trump won it by twenty two
percentage points last year, and all the polling seems to
indicate this thing is is neck and neck between the
Republican and the Democrat running for that seat.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Yeah, so any sort of overperformance there the by Democrats,
and especially a victory, would be a huge bill weather
for the twenty twenty six midterms. So that is definitely
something that people are going to be watching the same
way that people were watching the off your twenty twenty
(07:33):
five elections just a few weeks ago that Democrats largely swept.
So you know, those sorts of things are always eyeballed
in these midterm elections where you have, you know, a
fairly unpopular president. History dictates that the party in power
in Washington is the party that suffers at the polls
in the midterms. So there's already historic president going against
(07:56):
the GOP. So Democrats are looking for another bright spot
in Tennessee Foreshore. Now, whether or not, what I always
caution people is, even though that there are these trends
that tend to historically translate nationally, Florida in recent years
has proven itself an outlier and has kind of buked
all of those other national trends we saw in the
(08:18):
twenty twenty two midterms where there was sort of a
blue over performance everywhere else in the country, but in
Florida it wasn't just a red wave, it was a
red tsunami. So you know, we'll see whether or not
that actually bodes well for Democrats in Florida next year.
I don't have a crystal ball. It could, but it
also could be another incidence of Florida saying no we're
(08:40):
going to do our own thing.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
Southeast Politics publisher Janelle Irwin Taylor with us again. You
can check out all of our working a whole lot
more at Southeast Politics dot com and you can find
hern x at Chanelle Irwin fl Janelle, really great to
talk to you this morning, Thanks so much, Thanks for
having me so Ryan Gorman Show, you whose radio WFLA.
Follow us on Facebook and Instagram at Ryan Gorman Show,
(09:05):
and find us online at ryangormanshow dot com
Let's go to the highline and bring in the publisher
of Southeast Politics, Janelle Irwin Taylor. You can find all
of her work and a whole lot more at Southeast
politics dot com and you can follow her on X
two E Chanelle Irwin fl Janelle, it's great to talk
to you this morning. And look, even though the holidays
are here and you would think the news cycle would
(00:21):
slow down, that just doesn't seem to be the case
these days, including here in Florida with Florida politics, and
the big question is when will Lieutenant Governor j Collins
make a decision on a run for governor. His commercial
it's not his, it's some group behind it, but a
commercial highlighting all of his accomplishments and telling Floridians to
(00:45):
call this number and thank him for the great work
he's been doing. That continues to run. But we still
don't have a decision.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Why not, Probably because it's not looking so good. I mean,
first of all, I know people respond best to hard numbers, right,
and Collins's name has been pulled alongside alongside Byron Donald
several times and he's always in the single digits below
(01:16):
single digits, I might add, and that goes for other
candidates who are already in the race as well. You know,
Paul Renner, for example, is not pulling so hot alongside
Donald's either. Donald is just running away with the lead.
He is very clearly the GOP front runner. And the
only thing that really remains at this point is if
(01:39):
you have the you know, so called DeSantis lane. The
problem is Jake Collins is not raising enough money to
warrant DeSantis endorsing him at this point. But he's not
going to be able to raise the money that he
needs to get DeSantis until he gets to Santis. That's
(01:59):
kind of which came first, the chicken or the egg scenario.
That's not looking very good for him. And honestly, they've
said that that a decision is imminent and they you know,
there is no indication of what that decision is going
to be. But it seems very difficult at this point
in the game too for Collins to carve himself out
(02:22):
Alaine in this race. And then you have to ask yourself,
even if Desantus did come out today and say, you
know what, I endorse my lieutenant governor, is that enough,
because you've really got a governor who's Lai Duck at
this point. So you know, there's the cards are stacked
against him, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
But there has definitely been one report after another over
the past couple of weeks highlighting the fact that Governor
DeSantis does not want Byron Donald's to win the nomination.
He has been trying behind the scenes to get somebody
else to run against him. He didn't want to endorse
former House Speaker Paul Rennery. Ton't even really think he
(03:01):
should enter the race, despite the fact that Paul Renner
did a lot of desantisis bidding when he was serving
as House Speaker, and it sounds like, for whatever reason,
he isn't ready to get behind his own lieutenant governor
to go up against Donald. It's just it's a very
(03:22):
interesting dynamic.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Well, he doesn't want to back somebody who's going to
embarrass him, right, So if you have if you come
in and you go all in for a candidate and
then they end up pulling single digits in an election,
that's a huge embarrassment. That's not a legacy you want
to walk away from your term as governor with. So
you know there's that to consider, and then also consider
(03:45):
this Paul Renner, for whatever it's worth, has said that
he'll get DeSantis' endorsement eventually, and you know, so maybe
he's just assuming there's a biding of time going on
or something. You also have to con that are external
factors in this race as well, and that is the
man in the White House, Yeah, Donald Trump. The reason
(04:07):
that Byron Donald is doing as well as he is
has raised the money that he has. He's sitting on
twenty eight million dollars cash on hand. He's hard you know,
he's hardly spent any money so far. You know, that's
all there because he has the quote unquote complete and
total endorsement from President Donald Trump. So what happens if
(04:30):
let's say, a trove of Epstein files comes out and something, yeah,
you know, something in there. You know, it seems like
nothing ever takes this president down and removes his base support,
but it is starting to impact his approval ratings. They're
at historic lows, despite what the President claims. So you know,
(04:52):
that could be a potential wild card in this race
that dings Donalds enough to create a lane for somebody else. Happens,
I don't know, We'll see.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
We're joined by the publisher of Southeast Politics Janelle Irwin Taylor.
One problem the Lieutenant governor would have is the timing too.
You know, there were a lot of expectations that he
would enter the race back in the beginning of October.
That didn't happen. If you enter the race now, you
got the holidays right around the corner, and I think
(05:22):
between Thanksgiving and the New Year, people just they start
to really tune out the news and politics a bit.
They're just in a different mode. So it'd be a
really rough time to get into the race just because
of all of that.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Yeah. Look, I mean as a media executive, I can
tell you defensitively that the time between Thanksgiving, even the
week before Thanksgiving and the New Year is not a
great time for people to break news because there is,
you know, historically low levels of engagement among the American public. However,
news happens whether you want it to or not, and
(06:00):
the news cycle does not come to a complete grinding halt,
and if something happens, it's going to happen. So I
think with Jake Collins, if he's going to do anything,
he waits until after the New Year, he's waited too long.
If he's going to do it. He's really got kind
of this week and next week to have people still
somewhat engage, and then after that it's going to be
(06:22):
hard to get people. You know, donors aren't going to
pick up their phone. So you know, he's really got
to make if he really should have already made his move.
The apathy, I think tells you everything that you need
to know about the trajectory of this campaign.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Though, how much will Democrats in this state be paying
attention to the special election in Tennessee which happens tomorrow.
This congressional race, and look, it's a special election, so
there are only so many takeaways that I think you
can safely take from these results. But you've got a
(06:58):
safe republic looking Saint Trump won it by twenty two
percentage points last year, and all the polling seems to
indicate this thing is is neck and neck between the
Republican and the Democrat running for that seat.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Yeah, so any sort of overperformance there the by Democrats,
and especially a victory, would be a huge bill weather
for the twenty twenty six midterms. So that is definitely
something that people are going to be watching the same
way that people were watching the off your twenty twenty
(07:33):
five elections just a few weeks ago that Democrats largely swept.
So you know, those sorts of things are always eyeballed
in these midterm elections where you have, you know, a
fairly unpopular president. History dictates that the party in power
in Washington is the party that suffers at the polls
in the midterms. So there's already historic president going against
(07:56):
the GOP. So Democrats are looking for another bright spot
in Tennessee Foreshore. Now, whether or not, what I always
caution people is, even though that there are these trends
that tend to historically translate nationally, Florida in recent years
has proven itself an outlier and has kind of buked
all of those other national trends we saw in the
(08:18):
twenty twenty two midterms where there was sort of a
blue over performance everywhere else in the country, but in
Florida it wasn't just a red wave, it was a
red tsunami. So you know, we'll see whether or not
that actually bodes well for Democrats in Florida next year.
I don't have a crystal ball. It could, but it
also could be another incidence of Florida saying no we're
(08:40):
going to do our own thing.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
Southeast Politics publisher Janelle Irwin Taylor with us again. You
can check out all of our working a whole lot
more at Southeast Politics dot com and you can find
hern x at Chanelle Irwin fl Janelle, really great to
talk to you this morning, Thanks so much, Thanks for
having me so Ryan Gorman Show, you whose radio WFLA.
Follow us on Facebook and Instagram at Ryan Gorman Show,
(09:05):
and find us online at ryangormanshow dot com
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