August 7, 2025 • 45 mins
Is a correction coming? Some say we're one headline away from a mini-crash. So, hosts John and Guiseppe have this week's Market news and numbers. Plus, the speed of AI, Insider stocks sales during record hights, and Earnings reports. Don't miss our Workshop in Reno, Sept 10th. ok? Call us. Join The Wise Money Guys!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
I'm your co host, John Scabram here with my partner Viscontin,
and we are certified portfolio managers that love talking but
specialize in helping people who are retired are about to
retire manage their investments. So for investment experts, I could say,
after what fifty years, almost fifty years combined, it's.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Experience, I'd say after these last five years starting with.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
COVID, certainly our track record speaks for itself, especially starting
if you just go back in you know, the recent
like you said, since COVID, but what about starting really
since twenty nineteen. I mean, what a wild ride the
last Yeah, it's been a roller coaster yep. So the
point of this show is to help, you know, encourage
(01:00):
people to heed some of our advice. You don't have to,
but we've been doing this a very long time, as
we've said, and you know, our principles for managing money
are tried and true, not always one hundred percent right,
but nobody's always one hundred percent right, but I think
our instincts are better than most. So that's what we're
(01:23):
going to be talking about today. You know, where the
markets are at, They're certainly been continuing to climb the wold,
and we're continuing to climb the wall of worry. That's
a great way to put it. We told a client yesterday,
where at least I did, that we're a headline away
from what I feel could be, you know, an inner
(01:45):
year kind of additional correction, hopefully not a crash. Now.
You know, we'll talk about what we're doing, but we
feel really good about the second half of the year.
But we're would you say we're cautious optimistic, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
We're We're in the volatile period of the stock market season,
which is typically the end of July, August, September and
goes into part of October until you hit what's called
the Santa Claus rally, and things tend to start moving
up in November and December and go on into January.
(02:25):
So doesn't mean it's going to happen all the time,
but I think it is kind of good timing because
markets have just continued to climb they've defied a lot
of the odds, a lot of the skepticism and pessimistic
views of what tariffs and impacts on tariffs and other
things that are going on the geopolitical environment and how
(02:45):
it can all impact the overall market inflation, economic data,
and it just has not come to fruition, and market
continues to move past it, shrug it off its shoulders
and to continue to climb. But you don't want to
get too comfortable. You don't want to get too complacent
and think that's just going to be the continued path.
(03:08):
Although as you said, we do think there's more tailwinds
than headwinds and overall growth to be had, but obviously
nothing's the smooth ride, and we think probably these next
couple months you're going to see some bumps in the road. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
So this really brings us to our first piece of
strategy or investment advice or just uh mourning, I guess
if you will. We constantly sit down with clients. Are
our great clients We sit down or talk to or
zoom or teams meeting with them, you know, every three
(03:46):
to four months, some a little less frequently, some more frequently.
But the reality is over and over again. People get
greedy here and we say, don't, don't do it. So
we're meeting with the client yesterday. That's that's a hart.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Were going to talk about this.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Today, very a very large client, and it just blew
me away. So the wife has done a complete one eighty.
Now they have more money than than they need for retirement,
and then some they have more than most. And now
she's done a complete one eighty. Where she was the
conservative one and he was the aggressive one. Now he's
(04:28):
still you know, growth oriented, but but less worried about,
you know, keeping up with the S and P or
the Nasdaq. And she's now the one who's wanting to
keep up with the S and T NASDAK. And our
caution to her and our caution to our listeners is
(04:49):
don't get cocky, don't get greedy here. You'll get burned,
you know, when you start gobbling up all kinds of
stocks at these valuations. Yeah, we think it's going to
be a good rest of the year, but there's certainly
stocks that are out over their skis, as we like
to say, where you know, at any time they could
take a big tumble. And we've seen that, we've seen
(05:12):
that in the United Health Group. We've seen that in Tesla,
We've seen that in.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
I mean in Video was below one hundred at one point.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
In Video this year dropped to eighty eight eighty nine
dollars per share. That's so that's really kind of advice
or or strategy Number two is don't don't forget or
don't worry about locking in some profits here and then
worrying that you missed out on, you know, or gain.
(05:44):
The reality is is that the ebbs and flows that
we're experiencing this year will present opportunities to buy something
else might not be that same position, but if you
can duplicate, you know, good growth on other positions that
haven't run up and quite frankly just epy I mean
(06:06):
the S and P for the most part. You know,
we talk about this a lot. If you look at
equal weighted data on the S and P five hundred,
where every company has treated the same as far as
its impact on the index. I mean, we're not talking
about a whole lot of growth for this year.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
It's still oh yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
That seven to eight percent gain for the year. By
the way, that's all the S and P it is
up this year.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
I think it's eight maybe close to nine percent year
to date because of April and May on the downturn,
but it's the rally of the of those big tech names,
the weighted stocks that have carried it through. Yeah, you're right,
the equal weight again see single digits. And I think
(06:54):
to add to our recent experience with the conversation with
some clients of ours is going back to the big picture, right,
because you can easily get carried away with, you know, fomo,
and I've read it in recent articles that FOMO is
back fear of missing out. You know, people trying to participate.
(07:14):
They're seeing all time highs on you know this stock
name or that hot stock name, or they had good
earnings and then they're up, you know, fifteen percent in
one day after earnings, and people are, oh, man, I
want to get into that stock.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
And by the way, we showed them that on a
consolidated basis of all their accounts and on an individual
basis on their accounts since April or May, I think
it was April to May, or April April or May
last year to now you know, they are in July
twenty four percent, and you know that that is a
(07:50):
perfect example of you know, getting too greedy. But you
can't help it. I mean, we're human, we can't help it.
You see, it's you for it, right, right, exciting, it's
for it. It's you and you see.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
And they've done well, you know, individually personally themselves before
they came to us, because they had some good picks
and they had the stomach, especially the husband, had the
stomach to.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Really ride it out all the way want to or
more aggressive, more pure stock oriented client.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
But the but the thing to keep in mind is
to look at the big picture. And that's what we
brought the conversation back to. And part of the conversation was,
you know, overall, what's the goal of all these all
this money that you've worked so hard for and over time?
Their plan, right, the plan is look at the plan
and saying what what are the goals? What does this
money need to do for you? And then and then
we're you know, go backwards from there and say, well,
(08:42):
how hard does this money really need to work for you?
Does it need twenty percent a year or twenty five
or thirty? Does it need to be into high flying stocks?
And the answer is no, it was it was needing
to grow at like a six and a half seven
percent annualized rate, and obviously they've far seen did that,
you know. And some clients they love the euphoria of
(09:04):
all these high flying names or tech stocks or ai
and they want to participate. And our advice to them is, fine,
we can do that, but let's take a smaller portion
of your overall portfolio and then we can go into
a more aggressive play. But if we're wrong, if the
economy falls apart, if we have a two thousand and eight,
if we have another twenty twenty two, or whatever the
(09:26):
case may be, it's not going to blow up your
overall plan, and you can or even to twenty twenty five.
I mean, well, twenty twenty five not that bad.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
I mean the typical thought that that you know, people
it was over exaggerating.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
But on average, if you look back and you know,
in the past decades, the average draw down in the
year is a little over fourteen percent, So you know,
I mean, once it gets to ten percent and starts
going beyond, people start panicking like, oh my gosh, and
what's going on? Is this going to continue on? Are
we going to go into recession?
Speaker 2 (09:58):
And right it exactly, So what's important here, especially where
the market is at, especially if you have a large
portion of stocks in your portfolio, especially if you have
a large portion of stock funds, stock mutual funds in
(10:18):
your portfolio, you'll definitely want to give us a call
for a no obligation consultation because you might have more
risk than you need to get the returns that you
want or need and will help you discover, you know,
what that minimum return to objective is for you and
(10:39):
then what sort of portfolio will get you there, And
we'll do that without charging you a single time. So
to come in for that consultation with absolutely no obligation,
give us a call at nine six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. Again that number is N nine six
seven thirty five. Okay, when we come back, we're going
(11:01):
to talk more about the markets. We got to talk
more about earnings. Still. The FED a big, big news
you know now about this new virus. I mean there's,
like I said, we're one headline, yep, a new virus
coming out of China and so far it's spreading mainly
(11:21):
around China. But you know, again, if something gets overblown
on this, it could spook the markets off of their highs,
and I hate to see people, you know, lose money
or lose profit unnecessarily. So again give us call it
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred The
Wise Many Guys Radio show. I'm John Scamber and I'm
(11:44):
here with my partner Giuseppe Vescani, and we were diving
in a little bit too, talking about stocks, the stock market,
the economy. We have valuations, some couple of strategies. Lock
in some don't be afraid to lock in in some profit,
especially if it's an attacks deferred account. You know, there's
(12:05):
no reason not to. I mean the regret that I've
been saying for years now is it's better to regret
missing out on a little more upside than regretting not
selling and capturing more downside.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Or not capturing and just watching it continue to go down.
And you know, your motions run high and panicking, and
then you're thinking, you know, am I gonna am I? Am? I?
Is my plan off track? Am I not going to
hit my financial goals? And whatever else could could be
you know, driving that So.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
I see you have some technical signals here in our
our our our notes, but you know a seventy two
day windstreak and you see the moving averages. You know,
now the two hundred day moving average is, you know,
fifty nine hundred for the S and P And what
(13:01):
are we at current.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
Well, we've had the longest, the third longest streak three
year high since nineteen twenty eight in July being one
of the best ever from multi year highs as far
as the stock market's concerned. So we're back into the
all time high, all time high. But we had a
ton of them last year. You put on the news
(13:22):
or financial market, you know, TV or radio, what have you,
and you hear all time I, all time I, all
time high. We had a little bit of a break
of that beginning of this year, which we anticipated was
going to be bumpy, which, by the way, major policy
shift in January February March.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
We were starting to caution. We were our tone and
advice and strategies were the same things we're talking about now,
and we were right, of course. You know, if you
go back and listen to some of our older shows,
we were saying the same thing. Hey, we think the
year is going to be a good year. We think
there's more tail winds than headwinds. However, valuetions. You know,
(14:01):
the average S and P value company valuation was in
the low twenties, and we're there again and and consistently
now now now it's not a crystal ball, but consistently
we get a pullback at some point and it just
takes a headline, It takes something, you know, to just
(14:23):
given a reason, you know, for people to not people
institutions to make a big move, and then all of
a sudden, make sure it affects the people who are
doing it themselves. And then the sad thing is is
that's when we get calls.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
Well in the market breath again. Now we're back to
you know, market breath. And what market breath you know,
is pointing to is how many of the sectors of
the market or stocks that are out there, you know,
are really responsible for driving these main indices up. The
S and P five hundred, then NASDAC and we're kind
(15:01):
of getting back to the narrow market breadth, which is,
you know, more leaning and more dependent upon these indices
driving up or more dependent upon these big tech names
right that have been driving up. I mean, in Vidia
in the past three months has gone up you know,
seventy something percent, just in the past few months. Is
(15:22):
that sustainable. I mean, the the only major thing within
Vidia so far this year that has been a catalyst
for it to drive its you know, price up is
the release or basically relaxing the sell of its chips
to China. Right, it was restricted, Trump restricted it. Then
(15:45):
it came back a little later on and says, okay,
we're going to relax, relax that, and him and Jensen Wang,
the CEO of and Nvidia, you know, they had their
conversation and now they can sell their chips. So that
all of a sudden opened up the floodgates. And but
it never it never when it wasn't it wasn't restricted
(16:07):
last year, it didn't reach these levels. So what fundamentally
really changed. Did they come out with a new super
fast you know chip, a new super AI software. So
that's that's the thing that you have to look at.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Five is rolling out. Sam Altman was talking about it
during the week that open. Here's the scary thing. He said,
this one feels a lot more human like. That's a quote,
and that's kind of well.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
In the speed, the speed of the advancement of technology
with AI, I mean, it's it's pretty rapid when you
look at I've looked at some charts and articles, and
my cousin's really into it and he'll send us some
charts and it's just, you know, it's like this flat
curve and then it starts to have this curll up
and then all of a sudden it's just a straight
up arrow. It.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Well that if if you recall, there was a law,
you know, scientific law created because of how the rate
of you know, transistors being put on a computer chip,
how many they could get on it, and and then
how small you know, these these transistors and and chips, uh,
(17:16):
and what was on the chips was getting and it
was called Moore's law, and that was a measurement and
that was the initial race between like Intel and a
m D. And then video wasn't even involved in that.
And then now it's you know, that's the speed of
of of instructions, you know, with with supercomputers and now
(17:40):
quantum computers. So think of it like and and there's
ways and we can talk about what sectors you know,
we think are are indirect and direct ways to add
kind of exposure, uh, of this technology to your portfolios,
because you'll want some of it because the growth rate
(18:00):
of this type of tech is similar to if you
were investing in internet things back in the late nineties
and held on. So very speculative, very aggressive, very risky,
but for small portions of money in your portfolio, you
definitely want exposure to tech. And you know, the quantum computer,
(18:24):
think of it like this. I mean, original computers as
far as that the transmission of information were just basically
a two lane road, you know, on and off that
directionally and just you know, one lane in each direction.
Then yep, Highway forty nine. Then it went to you know,
(18:45):
two lanes in each direction right now, and that's super computing.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
That's that's eighty with a construction closing down two lanes
right but now supposed to be four lanes on these now.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Quantum computer is trillions of instructions happening a minute. And
basically it's the equivalent of ten it's a super freeway
multi down in Los Angeles, you know, ten lanes in
each direction without the traffic and no speed limit. Yeah,
and so that's really you know, how you think about
(19:23):
quantum computing. And then that's what is giving AI the
ability to perform perform. And here's the scary thing learn AI.
Another word for AI is machine learning. That's scary. And
now you have you know, Sam Altman, who's certainly one
(19:45):
of the leaders of the AI you know revolution, saying
that their new chat you know, feels human like, I mean,
that's freaky. I mean the train has left the station.
And so the only way to really benefit, in my opinion,
you know, from from a portfolio perspective, is to have
(20:05):
things that support you know, the the implementation, the infrastructure,
the software, the energy. So that's kind of strategy. You know.
Some additional strategy that you can look at is you know,
do I have energy companies that are targeting data centers,
(20:26):
you know, to provide power to them. Am I a
software companies, data centers themselves, Yeah, data centers themselves. Am
I a software company? You know, that's that's the the
tool needed to run certain applications of artificial intels.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
All the components that go into building supporting uh powering,
right uh uh you know, connected to AI or the
biggest of them, right, whether it's in video or I'm
and you're seeing palenteer pouneer stock is was nothing and
(21:04):
now look at how much has grown in the past
year eighteen months.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Yeah, there is a stock that I regret selling. I
didn't regret selling it when it when it dropped, you know,
down into the seventies and high because I had sold it,
you know, somewhere around one hundred. But now you know,
you see that the after earnings and shortly thereafter it's
(21:27):
gone through the roof. But well, that's.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
That's that's one stock within our custom proprietary S and
P top ten portfolio which some of our clients have,
and it's just been writing that way.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Ge Verona is an example of the on the power
side is one and then you know Western Digitals and
other technology play that's in the portfolio. But then it's
not all tech. And I highly cautioned people to again
go back to what we talked about in the begin
(22:00):
is don't get greedy here, don't put all tech, don't
put all stocks in your portfolio. Don't put all tech
stocks in your portfolio, because you know, if we have
a crash, which we did. We did have a technical
crash in April and May, and that's where the market's
down more than twenty percent. You look at the tech companies,
(22:22):
some of them are down fifty percent, some of them
are down seventy percent, some of them down thirty plus percent.
And that's when people who are managing their money themselves,
which I never understand when you're in your sixties, why
you would risk that, especially if you're not working and
you can't replace you know, financial mistakes. Anyway, you'll want
(22:44):
to give us a call here. I can't you know,
stress it enough so that we can help de risk
your portfolio, but help you identify the rate of return
you need to make over your lifetime and build the
portfolio that's designed to do that with the least amount
of risk that we can get for doing that, so
(23:06):
called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred
And keep listening to the Wise Money Guys radio show.
I'm your co host John Scameron here with my partner
Giuseppe Veskani, and we're gonna let you in on a
little secret. Now. There's all kinds of things that Giuseppe
and I and good advisors look at too, you know,
(23:29):
discover whether or not their gut instincts are are you know,
their spider senses are are are are warranted? That's that's
the main sport I was looking for. And you know,
one of the things that you should again consider here
is that insiders. There's lots of insiders now that means
(23:54):
corporate executives or publicly traded stock executiveatives that are selling
their stocks. And when you start selling them into July
and the growth of the market, yep, when you start
seeing insiders selling their stocks, they typically know you know
(24:15):
what's coming. Obviously they're insiders, and so if they're selling
their stocks, that's something to look at as a point
of caution.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
And it's it's been at a rate that hasn't seen
since twenty eighteen. Exactly. It's not something that's like, oh,
it happened last year, as it happened as much as
it's happening now, it's happening as much as last year
or the year before that. No, it's it's at a
bigger rate. So yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
The other thing I noticed is that on a different
on different individual stocks, the put call ratio is favoring
buying puts, and that's another bearish indicator because that's betting
that stock is going to go down. And so when
(25:03):
you have insider selling and you have the put call
ratio on any particular stock, showing that there's more and
This isn't the case on every stock on this league.
Speaker 3 (25:13):
It could be industries just hedging right for any potential
coming down.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
So protect profit. And again, these are some of the
things that we look at that we do that people
don't look at when they're managing their money themselves. They're
just a victim of you know, hindsight and being reactionary
instead of being you know, proactive. So, you know, based
(25:40):
on we're right here again where we were at in
the beginning of the year, where we came off a
great year and you know, we were hitting record highs.
Things felt exactly like they're feeling right now, and then
we had a huge pullback, huge bear market levels in
April and May, and then fortunately we've gotten we've recovered
(26:04):
and the.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
V shaped recovery getting all time highs again.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
Yeah, but again, as we were saying, that really only
puts the S and P up, you know, on an
equal weight basis up six seven percent and on a
cap weighted basis you know, eight percent nine percent at
the most. And so you know, don't go thinking that,
you know, when you see things like, oh, you know,
(26:28):
the S and P is up twenty percent from its
bottom this year, that you know, your portfolio should be
up twenty percent from the bottom, because chances are it's not.
But hopefully you're still not at a loss, and hopefully
you are up six, seven, eight, nine, ten percent like
(26:49):
our clients are on their stock portfolios. And if you're not,
and you're wondering how these things that we're talking about
are going to impact you, there's something else that you
can do. We're course love to do in person workshops,
retirement workshops for people who are retired or close to
(27:10):
retiring and they're really you know, I don't want to
say scared, but you know, going from an earned income
to a passive income is a big deal, and that's
our specialty. The majority of our clients are on passive
income from their retirement, their pension security, and their investment earnings,
(27:32):
investment income or cash flow. And they rely on us
so that they don't have to sit there and watch
the TV, read the news. Know that insiders are selling.
Know that put call ratio is you know, favoring puts
on many stocks.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Know that insiders you're buying or selling you know how hard.
And it goes back to what you said earlier, is
what's your minimum return of object to this is how
hard are your assets need to work? Are you on track?
Are you not on track? You know, if inflation increases,
how does that impact your overall portfolio and your overall
meeting your goals for what's important to you, your family
(28:14):
and your loved ones. What if we have another April
May where if markets and indicies go down by twenty percent,
What if we have another twenty twenty two. I mean,
there's all these different things, and these are the scary.
You know, seventy percent of the time the market goes up.
It's the other portion that you know, instills fear. And
(28:36):
when you're managing your own assets, that's where things can
get messed up because you start making decisions all based
off of emotion rather than logic strategy, using reasoning, looking
at data to support your evidence and your feelings and
your instinct and saying is my feelings warranted based off
(28:57):
of all the data that I'm seeing or is this
just overreaction?
Speaker 2 (29:01):
So if you want to see us live and in action,
We're going to have at least three more retirement workshops
before the year is over. Our next one is coming
up in September on the tenth in Reno at the
Twisted Fork from six to seven thirty pm. I like
(29:25):
to say we pull back the covers, we open up
the curtains and show people exactly, you know, how we
do things, and give samples of investments that are in
our client's actual portfolios and what types of returns and
dividends and interest you could reasonably expect to make based
(29:47):
on you know, what's happening at that time, because we
do update our presentation to be basically only hours old
versus something that we're talking about that was, you know,
three months ago. So our next one's in Reno on
September tenth, from six to seven thirty pm at the
(30:08):
Old Almost at Old Twisted for you get all twisted up.
We're going to have one and Conquered at the Old
Spaghetti Factory in October, but we'll get the dates for
that to you, and then we've got some other things
in the works for an open house appreciation event for
(30:31):
either late September or early October in Roseville, and we
might do a really exclusive dinner event.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
You really pull them back to covers right now.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
Yeah, So stay tuned to get when that is coming up,
or keep listening. I should say, because we're not going
to give the dates.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
Today once we finalize everything.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
But either way, this is the absolute perfect time where
you probably have have, you know, an opportunity to rebalance
and really lock your portfolio in for a great year
by calling us at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. Okay, I'm looking at these things. And earnings,
(31:17):
of course, we we we earnings have been plugging along.
Speaker 3 (31:20):
They've they've been meeting and beating, and that's what's helping
to support the you know, market climbing the wall of
worry with the tariff deadlines and all this other stuff
that's coming across the news and any geopolitical events, you know,
the big thing that's been out there. And one of
the articles I read and what I have here on
the notes is banks and lending and loans, and you know,
(31:45):
we've talked about it before and how a lot of
the office buildings have just been taking a big hit
as far as value add and actually because the remote
work from home single family residences are are really I mean,
it's no longer a seller's market where you have you know,
four or five offers per house and they sell in
(32:05):
a week. I mean that talk about slowed to another
one eighty and again it's based on where loan rates
are and and and that could certainly be a headline
that comes out that just spooks investors because let's face it,
(32:26):
most people's wealth is tied to their home. Yeah, well,
I think the I think the the catalyst on that
is if unemployment starts to kick up to a you know, concerning.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Level above five percent, close to five percent, right.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
And then it puts people in situations where it's hard
for them to make the payments. But right now, it's
everybody's just staying in place, especially anybody who has low, low,
you know, locked in low mortgage rates.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
They're not Inventory is just not there is maybe one
of the bigger reasons why you know, you know, you
say that residential property, you say that, but there is
Like where I live, there's a ton Oh yeah, we
can't use there's a toll in Roseville as an example.
There's a ton of building they are building, you know,
they're trying to build what I would call affordable houses, trying,
(33:19):
but there's still you know, it's about six hundred to
one point five million for a track home.
Speaker 3 (33:26):
And they're trying to be creative. So they have these
incentives of you know, thirty thousand dollars credit to help
buy down your rate, right, so you can get some
maybe you can get into the fives.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
Yeah, you know, if you're lucky, high fives and five traditionally,
isn't that bad, no, you know, but when you're spoil
when we've been spoiled for so long being in the
you know, threes and fours, and then for a.
Speaker 3 (33:46):
Period of time it was in the twos.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
Yeah, you know, I couldn't move because I would not
give up my three and a half percent, you know, mortgage.
There's just no way. And before that I had two
point seventy five, so I.
Speaker 3 (33:58):
Have two point six two five.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
I was upset when we went from two point seventy
five to three point five, but you know, we moved.
Speaker 3 (34:06):
That's still a great even though it's still great compared
to what you imagine.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
I mean, take your mortgage and just double it to seven,
you know, and then you go, okay, let's say your
payments three thousand. Now for the same house, it's six thousand,
not counting taxes and insurance and all that. And that's why,
you know, real estate is taking a huge hit the
office that the virtual real estate is a whole different reason.
(34:31):
Certainly the loan the interest rates affect that. But let's
just face it, you just don't need high rises that
hold you know, two hundred thousand, fifty thousand, ten thousand
people anymore, you know, with technology, AI, virtual technology, all
those things. What do you need a massive, you know,
(34:54):
high rise office for? And that's why you see, you know,
that continuing to just be a lagger because you want.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
To have a good view high rise, right.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
I'm looking at looking at the ocean or something. Yet, Okay,
you're listening to the Wise Money Guys radio show, und
your co host John Scambray, and I'm here with my partner,
and if you're just tuning in, it's a good time
to tune in because we're going to give you some
of the tactics that we think are warranted and timely,
(35:25):
you know, especially with all the We weren't really negative,
but we were and again we're cautiously optimistic, but we've
seen this over and over and over again, and with
what our gut is telling us, with the things and
indicators are out there, and we're not by the way,
(35:47):
we're not dumping you know stocks, we're rebalancing, we're we're
locking in profit. But just talk about some of the tactics,
the portfolio tactics that we're doing that could be helpful.
Speaker 3 (35:59):
Sure, And I'd say before we jump into that, because
we haven't done in this radio episode.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
There's something we haven't done.
Speaker 3 (36:05):
Yeah, just talking about a little bit who we are,
right for maybe some new listeners of you know.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
People don't know who we are, but.
Speaker 3 (36:18):
That we are. You know, One Source Wealth Management we
did recently in the past couple months a partner with
a larger firm that is now I think I just
read thirteen billion in assets. I have to double check
that because it was like seven and nine. And then
I read something somebody said congratulations on their you know
(36:38):
communication that had like several communications thirteen billion in assets.
I'll have to double check that, so don't don't don't
put that as one hundred percent. So we'll have to
double check. But the nice thing is now before we
had and what we do is we don't have our
own bank or brokerage, the brokerage of One Source Wealth
Management or John of Giuseppe's brokerage. We use some of
(36:59):
the largest custodians out there, and so we had for
a long time schwab y our main one.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Just as a registered investment advisory firm, you can choose
to really who you want to partner with for your platform.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
Which is huge is which is huge, and you have
to be a certain size in order to get with
some of the big boys, right, So we have interactive brokers,
We have Schwab which we've had for a while, but
now that we've been partnered with farther and getting assimilated
into their network, we now have Fidelity. We do have
access that we'll be establishing here with Pershing, Goldman Sachs,
(37:37):
which are to B and Y Melon. So the nice
thing is now we have we had a lot of
choice before. Now we have the floodgates are essentially open
because we have a ton of choice out there because
now we have the.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
Access of resources from all those exactly custodians.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
Because we were on the institutional side of the platform,
you know, people might be thinking, oh, it's I can
get access. I could just log in as a retail
investor Fidelity, I can log as in a retail investor.
It's not the same thing. That's the retail side. We
have access to the institutional side of the platform, and
not only stuff that Fidelity has, but everything else that's
out there, and some alternative investments and private equity investments
(38:17):
and private credit credit investments and some of these things
that are unconventional.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Notes bury your funds, all.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
Kinds of rights, things that are unconventional, things that are
not available to retail investors. If you were to just
open an account or have an account at Fidelity or
gold Min Sack Well.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
That's a really good point. So if you have an
account at Fidelity or Schwab or gold Min, you don't
have to move your accounts for us to become your
advisor of record on those accounts, and so you know,
that's really probably one of the big things makes it easier.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
And by the.
Speaker 2 (38:54):
Way, we've got to make sure we get into the
portfolio tactic notes here, but will but this is but
it's important you know that that people know, especially as
you said, if you're just listening to us for the
first time, that you can come in for that consultation
and there's a really strong chance to hire us. You
don't need new account numbers, you don't need to set
(39:16):
up new money links, you don't need to set up
new you know, monthly distributions, whatever the case may be,
All of that stays the same. It's just we start,
you know, managing building, rebalancing your portfolio based on your
financial plan that if you don't want to have one,
you should and if you have one you should, it
(39:39):
should be reviewed and updated. And that's what we'll do
based on what that says, to make sure the management
of your money is in line with your goals and objectives.
And as we said, as a tactic you know earlier,
mitigating risk should always be a tactic.
Speaker 3 (39:59):
Yeah, mitigating, but to just to finish up on the
different custodians and now we're truly multi custodian. Is that
allows plentiful of choices out there and investment options and
that is huge if you think about it.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
Not anybody plentiful.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
You can be bountiful like that better, but you have
you know, if you think about it, you know, anyone
who has a four to one k out there, the
biggest drawback of a four to one K is you
have a narrow menu options. So some four one k's
they might be great, and have you know a myriad
of different options from different firms out there that might
(40:41):
have some Vanguard and t row Price and Fidelity and
so on and so forth. Then there's other four one
k's out there that have just principal funds and that's
it and maybe maybe maybe some indices or what have you. Right, so,
and it's either like it or leave it, and you
might have some mediocre options or not. And so that's
not the case with us. And by the way, I
think Trump has been trying to do an executive order
(41:05):
right on widening the options for retirement plans and having
more options, especially to the alternative space, which is huge
because that really helped people out and their portfolios in
twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2 (41:18):
Yeah, four one k's, I think, categorically, and from an
asset allocation perspective, you should have a percentage five percent,
ten percent, maybe you're up to fifteen percent of your
portfolio should be in the category of alternative investments because
of its low correlation to stocks and bonds.
Speaker 3 (41:38):
Whereas four one k's traditionally don't have that. And in
twenty twenty two, if you're diversified as much as you
can be, you primarily just had stocks and bonds in
some real estate, everything went down, Everything went down.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
But if you had alternatives, and again you know, to
learn more about alternatives, give us a call. But if
you had alternatives, they still eked out you know, distribution
and basically you know, the price, the price per share
stayed flat, maybe down a little bit, but if you
couple that with the dividends that you got paid, you know,
(42:12):
you were still positive positive cash flow help.
Speaker 3 (42:15):
Buffer the blow to the other asset classes.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
But looking at the rest of the tactics here just
some of these general strategies a rehash, but why don't
you go through So.
Speaker 3 (42:27):
We've been hammering how well the market has been performing,
its resiliency and the you know, technology sector and some
of the AI names out there have been skyrocketing again
after hitting you know, getting beaten up over the head
in April and May. So it's a good time to trim,
(42:50):
trim a little bit from your tech and AI some
of those high flying names. Take a little bit off
the table. You don't need to sell all of it,
you know, where could you put it? You can re distribute.
Maybe you had twenty five percent of your portfolio invested
solely in tech and that now has grown to thirty
five percent because it's taken off or forty percent, well
(43:10):
trim back down and go back to your initial twenty
five percent waiting. You can use stops. That is a
little tricky. But if you have a stock and you say, hey,
I thought I was going to get a hit one
hundred and fifty. Let's say in video, for example, I
thought I was going to hit one hundred and fifty.
Or I've told myself before, man, if this thing hits
one hundred and fifty, I'm going to sell it. But
(43:33):
now here you are, you haven't sold it, and you're like, nah,
maybe you can go to two hundred now right, put
some stops in there. Say hey, maybe if it goes
back down right and it goes down to one hundred
and seventy, you know, we're more.
Speaker 2 (43:44):
Buy and hold. But if you're doing things, you know,
individually without putting a whole lot of research into the stops,
could could make sense.
Speaker 3 (43:52):
And diversify in other sectors. Maybe healthcare industrials are taken
off right now. Utilities focused on companies with strong cash flow,
you know, they're fundamentals that goes more into the nitty gritty.
This is if you're paying a lot of attention to
have the resources. But if not, this is where you
come to us and if you have questions, say what
does this mean? What what's a strong cash flow? What
(44:14):
are EPs? What are fundamentals? What are technicals? This is
what we do. This is what we can explain and
help you with, and that's where you can call us
at nine thirty five hundred. This is also what we
go through in our workshops more in detail. You know,
we talk about these things in general, but that's really
(44:35):
where we like pull back the curtains and say, here's
kind of what a portfolio looks like. Here's a different
strategy specifically with a stock or fund or what have you.
And this is why we do it.
Speaker 2 (44:47):
So if we had to summarize, you know, everything we've
talked about, especially from a from a portfolio perspective, you know,
volatility is what we think is should it's going to
be kick uh. You know, there's technical risks, there's headline risks,
there's there's interest rate risks, there's geopolitical risks, evaluation, there's
(45:10):
fundamental risk. There's all kinds of reasons to be rebalancing here.
So give us a call at nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred. Hope you enjoyed listening to
John Scambray, Geuseppe Vescani, the Wise money guys. Have a
great weekend. Bye.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
What's your next weekend?
The Wise Money Guys radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
I'm your co host, John Scabram here with my partner Viscontin,
and we are certified portfolio managers that love talking but
specialize in helping people who are retired are about to
retire manage their investments. So for investment experts, I could say,
after what fifty years, almost fifty years combined, it's.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Experience, I'd say after these last five years starting with.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
COVID, certainly our track record speaks for itself, especially starting
if you just go back in you know, the recent
like you said, since COVID, but what about starting really
since twenty nineteen. I mean, what a wild ride the
last Yeah, it's been a roller coaster yep. So the
point of this show is to help, you know, encourage
(01:00):
people to heed some of our advice. You don't have to,
but we've been doing this a very long time, as
we've said, and you know, our principles for managing money
are tried and true, not always one hundred percent right,
but nobody's always one hundred percent right, but I think
our instincts are better than most. So that's what we're
(01:23):
going to be talking about today. You know, where the
markets are at, They're certainly been continuing to climb the wold,
and we're continuing to climb the wall of worry. That's
a great way to put it. We told a client yesterday,
where at least I did, that we're a headline away
from what I feel could be, you know, an inner
(01:45):
year kind of additional correction, hopefully not a crash. Now.
You know, we'll talk about what we're doing, but we
feel really good about the second half of the year.
But we're would you say we're cautious optimistic, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
We're We're in the volatile period of the stock market season,
which is typically the end of July, August, September and
goes into part of October until you hit what's called
the Santa Claus rally, and things tend to start moving
up in November and December and go on into January.
(02:25):
So doesn't mean it's going to happen all the time,
but I think it is kind of good timing because
markets have just continued to climb they've defied a lot
of the odds, a lot of the skepticism and pessimistic
views of what tariffs and impacts on tariffs and other
things that are going on the geopolitical environment and how
(02:45):
it can all impact the overall market inflation, economic data,
and it just has not come to fruition, and market
continues to move past it, shrug it off its shoulders
and to continue to climb. But you don't want to
get too comfortable. You don't want to get too complacent
and think that's just going to be the continued path.
(03:08):
Although as you said, we do think there's more tailwinds
than headwinds and overall growth to be had, but obviously
nothing's the smooth ride, and we think probably these next
couple months you're going to see some bumps in the road. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
So this really brings us to our first piece of
strategy or investment advice or just uh mourning, I guess
if you will. We constantly sit down with clients. Are
our great clients We sit down or talk to or
zoom or teams meeting with them, you know, every three
(03:46):
to four months, some a little less frequently, some more frequently.
But the reality is over and over again. People get
greedy here and we say, don't, don't do it. So
we're meeting with the client yesterday. That's that's a hart.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Were going to talk about this.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Today, very a very large client, and it just blew
me away. So the wife has done a complete one eighty.
Now they have more money than than they need for retirement,
and then some they have more than most. And now
she's done a complete one eighty. Where she was the
conservative one and he was the aggressive one. Now he's
(04:28):
still you know, growth oriented, but but less worried about,
you know, keeping up with the S and P or
the Nasdaq. And she's now the one who's wanting to
keep up with the S and T NASDAK. And our
caution to her and our caution to our listeners is
(04:49):
don't get cocky, don't get greedy here. You'll get burned,
you know, when you start gobbling up all kinds of
stocks at these valuations. Yeah, we think it's going to
be a good rest of the year, but there's certainly
stocks that are out over their skis, as we like
to say, where you know, at any time they could
take a big tumble. And we've seen that, we've seen
(05:12):
that in the United Health Group. We've seen that in Tesla,
We've seen that in.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
I mean in Video was below one hundred at one point.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
In Video this year dropped to eighty eight eighty nine
dollars per share. That's so that's really kind of advice
or or strategy Number two is don't don't forget or
don't worry about locking in some profits here and then
worrying that you missed out on, you know, or gain.
(05:44):
The reality is is that the ebbs and flows that
we're experiencing this year will present opportunities to buy something
else might not be that same position, but if you
can duplicate, you know, good growth on other positions that
haven't run up and quite frankly just epy I mean
(06:06):
the S and P for the most part. You know,
we talk about this a lot. If you look at
equal weighted data on the S and P five hundred,
where every company has treated the same as far as
its impact on the index. I mean, we're not talking
about a whole lot of growth for this year.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
It's still oh yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
That seven to eight percent gain for the year. By
the way, that's all the S and P it is
up this year.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
I think it's eight maybe close to nine percent year
to date because of April and May on the downturn,
but it's the rally of the of those big tech names,
the weighted stocks that have carried it through. Yeah, you're right,
the equal weight again see single digits. And I think
(06:54):
to add to our recent experience with the conversation with
some clients of ours is going back to the big picture, right,
because you can easily get carried away with, you know, fomo,
and I've read it in recent articles that FOMO is
back fear of missing out. You know, people trying to participate.
(07:14):
They're seeing all time highs on you know this stock
name or that hot stock name, or they had good
earnings and then they're up, you know, fifteen percent in
one day after earnings, and people are, oh, man, I
want to get into that stock.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
And by the way, we showed them that on a
consolidated basis of all their accounts and on an individual
basis on their accounts since April or May, I think
it was April to May, or April April or May
last year to now you know, they are in July
twenty four percent, and you know that that is a
(07:50):
perfect example of you know, getting too greedy. But you
can't help it. I mean, we're human, we can't help it.
You see, it's you for it, right, right, exciting, it's
for it. It's you and you see.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
And they've done well, you know, individually personally themselves before
they came to us, because they had some good picks
and they had the stomach, especially the husband, had the
stomach to.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Really ride it out all the way want to or
more aggressive, more pure stock oriented client.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
But the but the thing to keep in mind is
to look at the big picture. And that's what we
brought the conversation back to. And part of the conversation was,
you know, overall, what's the goal of all these all
this money that you've worked so hard for and over time?
Their plan, right, the plan is look at the plan
and saying what what are the goals? What does this
money need to do for you? And then and then
we're you know, go backwards from there and say, well,
(08:42):
how hard does this money really need to work for you?
Does it need twenty percent a year or twenty five
or thirty? Does it need to be into high flying stocks?
And the answer is no, it was it was needing
to grow at like a six and a half seven
percent annualized rate, and obviously they've far seen did that,
you know. And some clients they love the euphoria of
(09:04):
all these high flying names or tech stocks or ai
and they want to participate. And our advice to them is, fine,
we can do that, but let's take a smaller portion
of your overall portfolio and then we can go into
a more aggressive play. But if we're wrong, if the
economy falls apart, if we have a two thousand and eight,
if we have another twenty twenty two, or whatever the
(09:26):
case may be, it's not going to blow up your
overall plan, and you can or even to twenty twenty five.
I mean, well, twenty twenty five not that bad.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
I mean the typical thought that that you know, people
it was over exaggerating.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
But on average, if you look back and you know,
in the past decades, the average draw down in the
year is a little over fourteen percent, So you know,
I mean, once it gets to ten percent and starts
going beyond, people start panicking like, oh my gosh, and
what's going on? Is this going to continue on? Are
we going to go into recession?
Speaker 2 (09:58):
And right it exactly, So what's important here, especially where
the market is at, especially if you have a large
portion of stocks in your portfolio, especially if you have
a large portion of stock funds, stock mutual funds in
(10:18):
your portfolio, you'll definitely want to give us a call
for a no obligation consultation because you might have more
risk than you need to get the returns that you
want or need and will help you discover, you know,
what that minimum return to objective is for you and
(10:39):
then what sort of portfolio will get you there, And
we'll do that without charging you a single time. So
to come in for that consultation with absolutely no obligation,
give us a call at nine six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. Again that number is N nine six
seven thirty five. Okay, when we come back, we're going
(11:01):
to talk more about the markets. We got to talk
more about earnings. Still. The FED a big, big news
you know now about this new virus. I mean there's,
like I said, we're one headline, yep, a new virus
coming out of China and so far it's spreading mainly
(11:21):
around China. But you know, again, if something gets overblown
on this, it could spook the markets off of their highs,
and I hate to see people, you know, lose money
or lose profit unnecessarily. So again give us call it
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred The
Wise Many Guys Radio show. I'm John Scamber and I'm
(11:44):
here with my partner Giuseppe Vescani, and we were diving
in a little bit too, talking about stocks, the stock market,
the economy. We have valuations, some couple of strategies. Lock
in some don't be afraid to lock in in some profit,
especially if it's an attacks deferred account. You know, there's
(12:05):
no reason not to. I mean the regret that I've
been saying for years now is it's better to regret
missing out on a little more upside than regretting not
selling and capturing more downside.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Or not capturing and just watching it continue to go down.
And you know, your motions run high and panicking, and
then you're thinking, you know, am I gonna am I? Am? I?
Is my plan off track? Am I not going to
hit my financial goals? And whatever else could could be
you know, driving that So.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
I see you have some technical signals here in our
our our our notes, but you know a seventy two
day windstreak and you see the moving averages. You know,
now the two hundred day moving average is, you know,
fifty nine hundred for the S and P And what
(13:01):
are we at current.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
Well, we've had the longest, the third longest streak three
year high since nineteen twenty eight in July being one
of the best ever from multi year highs as far
as the stock market's concerned. So we're back into the
all time high, all time high. But we had a
ton of them last year. You put on the news
(13:22):
or financial market, you know, TV or radio, what have you,
and you hear all time I, all time I, all
time high. We had a little bit of a break
of that beginning of this year, which we anticipated was
going to be bumpy, which, by the way, major policy
shift in January February March.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
We were starting to caution. We were our tone and
advice and strategies were the same things we're talking about now,
and we were right, of course. You know, if you
go back and listen to some of our older shows,
we were saying the same thing. Hey, we think the
year is going to be a good year. We think
there's more tail winds than headwinds. However, valuetions. You know,
(14:01):
the average S and P value company valuation was in
the low twenties, and we're there again and and consistently
now now now it's not a crystal ball, but consistently
we get a pullback at some point and it just
takes a headline, It takes something, you know, to just
(14:23):
given a reason, you know, for people to not people
institutions to make a big move, and then all of
a sudden, make sure it affects the people who are
doing it themselves. And then the sad thing is is
that's when we get calls.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
Well in the market breath again. Now we're back to
you know, market breath. And what market breath you know,
is pointing to is how many of the sectors of
the market or stocks that are out there, you know,
are really responsible for driving these main indices up. The
S and P five hundred, then NASDAC and we're kind
(15:01):
of getting back to the narrow market breadth, which is,
you know, more leaning and more dependent upon these indices
driving up or more dependent upon these big tech names
right that have been driving up. I mean, in Vidia
in the past three months has gone up you know,
seventy something percent, just in the past few months. Is
(15:22):
that sustainable. I mean, the the only major thing within
Vidia so far this year that has been a catalyst
for it to drive its you know, price up is
the release or basically relaxing the sell of its chips
to China. Right, it was restricted, Trump restricted it. Then
(15:45):
it came back a little later on and says, okay,
we're going to relax, relax that, and him and Jensen Wang,
the CEO of and Nvidia, you know, they had their
conversation and now they can sell their chips. So that
all of a sudden opened up the floodgates. And but
it never it never when it wasn't it wasn't restricted
(16:07):
last year, it didn't reach these levels. So what fundamentally
really changed. Did they come out with a new super
fast you know chip, a new super AI software. So
that's that's the thing that you have to look at.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Five is rolling out. Sam Altman was talking about it
during the week that open. Here's the scary thing. He said,
this one feels a lot more human like. That's a quote,
and that's kind of well.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
In the speed, the speed of the advancement of technology
with AI, I mean, it's it's pretty rapid when you
look at I've looked at some charts and articles, and
my cousin's really into it and he'll send us some
charts and it's just, you know, it's like this flat
curve and then it starts to have this curll up
and then all of a sudden it's just a straight
up arrow. It.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Well that if if you recall, there was a law,
you know, scientific law created because of how the rate
of you know, transistors being put on a computer chip,
how many they could get on it, and and then
how small you know, these these transistors and and chips, uh,
(17:16):
and what was on the chips was getting and it
was called Moore's law, and that was a measurement and
that was the initial race between like Intel and a
m D. And then video wasn't even involved in that.
And then now it's you know, that's the speed of
of of instructions, you know, with with supercomputers and now
(17:40):
quantum computers. So think of it like and and there's
ways and we can talk about what sectors you know,
we think are are indirect and direct ways to add
kind of exposure, uh, of this technology to your portfolios,
because you'll want some of it because the growth rate
(18:00):
of this type of tech is similar to if you
were investing in internet things back in the late nineties
and held on. So very speculative, very aggressive, very risky,
but for small portions of money in your portfolio, you
definitely want exposure to tech. And you know, the quantum computer,
(18:24):
think of it like this. I mean, original computers as
far as that the transmission of information were just basically
a two lane road, you know, on and off that
directionally and just you know, one lane in each direction.
Then yep, Highway forty nine. Then it went to you know,
(18:45):
two lanes in each direction right now, and that's super computing.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
That's that's eighty with a construction closing down two lanes
right but now supposed to be four lanes on these now.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Quantum computer is trillions of instructions happening a minute. And
basically it's the equivalent of ten it's a super freeway
multi down in Los Angeles, you know, ten lanes in
each direction without the traffic and no speed limit. Yeah,
and so that's really you know, how you think about
(19:23):
quantum computing. And then that's what is giving AI the
ability to perform perform. And here's the scary thing learn AI.
Another word for AI is machine learning. That's scary. And
now you have you know, Sam Altman, who's certainly one
(19:45):
of the leaders of the AI you know revolution, saying
that their new chat you know, feels human like, I mean,
that's freaky. I mean the train has left the station.
And so the only way to really benefit, in my opinion,
you know, from from a portfolio perspective, is to have
(20:05):
things that support you know, the the implementation, the infrastructure,
the software, the energy. So that's kind of strategy. You know.
Some additional strategy that you can look at is you know,
do I have energy companies that are targeting data centers,
(20:26):
you know, to provide power to them. Am I a
software companies, data centers themselves, Yeah, data centers themselves. Am
I a software company? You know, that's that's the the
tool needed to run certain applications of artificial intels.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
All the components that go into building supporting uh powering,
right uh uh you know, connected to AI or the
biggest of them, right, whether it's in video or I'm
and you're seeing palenteer pouneer stock is was nothing and
(21:04):
now look at how much has grown in the past
year eighteen months.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Yeah, there is a stock that I regret selling. I
didn't regret selling it when it when it dropped, you know,
down into the seventies and high because I had sold it,
you know, somewhere around one hundred. But now you know,
you see that the after earnings and shortly thereafter it's
(21:27):
gone through the roof. But well, that's.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
That's that's one stock within our custom proprietary S and
P top ten portfolio which some of our clients have,
and it's just been writing that way.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Ge Verona is an example of the on the power
side is one and then you know Western Digitals and
other technology play that's in the portfolio. But then it's
not all tech. And I highly cautioned people to again
go back to what we talked about in the begin
(22:00):
is don't get greedy here, don't put all tech, don't
put all stocks in your portfolio. Don't put all tech
stocks in your portfolio, because you know, if we have
a crash, which we did. We did have a technical
crash in April and May, and that's where the market's
down more than twenty percent. You look at the tech companies,
(22:22):
some of them are down fifty percent, some of them
are down seventy percent, some of them down thirty plus percent.
And that's when people who are managing their money themselves,
which I never understand when you're in your sixties, why
you would risk that, especially if you're not working and
you can't replace you know, financial mistakes. Anyway, you'll want
(22:44):
to give us a call here. I can't you know,
stress it enough so that we can help de risk
your portfolio, but help you identify the rate of return
you need to make over your lifetime and build the
portfolio that's designed to do that with the least amount
of risk that we can get for doing that, so
(23:06):
called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred
And keep listening to the Wise Money Guys radio show.
I'm your co host John Scameron here with my partner
Giuseppe Veskani, and we're gonna let you in on a
little secret. Now. There's all kinds of things that Giuseppe
and I and good advisors look at too, you know,
(23:29):
discover whether or not their gut instincts are are you know,
their spider senses are are are are warranted? That's that's
the main sport I was looking for. And you know,
one of the things that you should again consider here
is that insiders. There's lots of insiders now that means
(23:54):
corporate executives or publicly traded stock executiveatives that are selling
their stocks. And when you start selling them into July
and the growth of the market, yep, when you start
seeing insiders selling their stocks, they typically know you know
(24:15):
what's coming. Obviously they're insiders, and so if they're selling
their stocks, that's something to look at as a point
of caution.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
And it's it's been at a rate that hasn't seen
since twenty eighteen. Exactly. It's not something that's like, oh,
it happened last year, as it happened as much as
it's happening now, it's happening as much as last year
or the year before that. No, it's it's at a
bigger rate. So yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
The other thing I noticed is that on a different
on different individual stocks, the put call ratio is favoring
buying puts, and that's another bearish indicator because that's betting
that stock is going to go down. And so when
(25:03):
you have insider selling and you have the put call
ratio on any particular stock, showing that there's more and
This isn't the case on every stock on this league.
Speaker 3 (25:13):
It could be industries just hedging right for any potential
coming down.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
So protect profit. And again, these are some of the
things that we look at that we do that people
don't look at when they're managing their money themselves. They're
just a victim of you know, hindsight and being reactionary
instead of being you know, proactive. So, you know, based
(25:40):
on we're right here again where we were at in
the beginning of the year, where we came off a
great year and you know, we were hitting record highs.
Things felt exactly like they're feeling right now, and then
we had a huge pullback, huge bear market levels in
April and May, and then fortunately we've gotten we've recovered
(26:04):
and the.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
V shaped recovery getting all time highs again.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
Yeah, but again, as we were saying, that really only
puts the S and P up, you know, on an
equal weight basis up six seven percent and on a
cap weighted basis you know, eight percent nine percent at
the most. And so you know, don't go thinking that,
you know, when you see things like, oh, you know,
(26:28):
the S and P is up twenty percent from its
bottom this year, that you know, your portfolio should be
up twenty percent from the bottom, because chances are it's not.
But hopefully you're still not at a loss, and hopefully
you are up six, seven, eight, nine, ten percent like
(26:49):
our clients are on their stock portfolios. And if you're not,
and you're wondering how these things that we're talking about
are going to impact you, there's something else that you
can do. We're course love to do in person workshops,
retirement workshops for people who are retired or close to
(27:10):
retiring and they're really you know, I don't want to
say scared, but you know, going from an earned income
to a passive income is a big deal, and that's
our specialty. The majority of our clients are on passive
income from their retirement, their pension security, and their investment earnings,
(27:32):
investment income or cash flow. And they rely on us
so that they don't have to sit there and watch
the TV, read the news. Know that insiders are selling.
Know that put call ratio is you know, favoring puts
on many stocks.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Know that insiders you're buying or selling you know how hard.
And it goes back to what you said earlier, is
what's your minimum return of object to this is how
hard are your assets need to work? Are you on track?
Are you not on track? You know, if inflation increases,
how does that impact your overall portfolio and your overall
meeting your goals for what's important to you, your family
(28:14):
and your loved ones. What if we have another April
May where if markets and indicies go down by twenty percent,
What if we have another twenty twenty two. I mean,
there's all these different things, and these are the scary.
You know, seventy percent of the time the market goes up.
It's the other portion that you know, instills fear. And
(28:36):
when you're managing your own assets, that's where things can
get messed up because you start making decisions all based
off of emotion rather than logic strategy, using reasoning, looking
at data to support your evidence and your feelings and
your instinct and saying is my feelings warranted based off
(28:57):
of all the data that I'm seeing or is this
just overreaction?
Speaker 2 (29:01):
So if you want to see us live and in action,
We're going to have at least three more retirement workshops
before the year is over. Our next one is coming
up in September on the tenth in Reno at the
Twisted Fork from six to seven thirty pm. I like
(29:25):
to say we pull back the covers, we open up
the curtains and show people exactly, you know, how we
do things, and give samples of investments that are in
our client's actual portfolios and what types of returns and
dividends and interest you could reasonably expect to make based
(29:47):
on you know, what's happening at that time, because we
do update our presentation to be basically only hours old
versus something that we're talking about that was, you know,
three months ago. So our next one's in Reno on
September tenth, from six to seven thirty pm at the
(30:08):
Old Almost at Old Twisted for you get all twisted up.
We're going to have one and Conquered at the Old
Spaghetti Factory in October, but we'll get the dates for
that to you, and then we've got some other things
in the works for an open house appreciation event for
(30:31):
either late September or early October in Roseville, and we
might do a really exclusive dinner event.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
You really pull them back to covers right now.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
Yeah, So stay tuned to get when that is coming up,
or keep listening. I should say, because we're not going
to give the dates.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
Today once we finalize everything.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
But either way, this is the absolute perfect time where
you probably have have, you know, an opportunity to rebalance
and really lock your portfolio in for a great year
by calling us at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. Okay, I'm looking at these things. And earnings,
(31:17):
of course, we we we earnings have been plugging along.
Speaker 3 (31:20):
They've they've been meeting and beating, and that's what's helping
to support the you know, market climbing the wall of
worry with the tariff deadlines and all this other stuff
that's coming across the news and any geopolitical events, you know,
the big thing that's been out there. And one of
the articles I read and what I have here on
the notes is banks and lending and loans, and you know,
(31:45):
we've talked about it before and how a lot of
the office buildings have just been taking a big hit
as far as value add and actually because the remote
work from home single family residences are are really I mean,
it's no longer a seller's market where you have you know,
four or five offers per house and they sell in
(32:05):
a week. I mean that talk about slowed to another
one eighty and again it's based on where loan rates
are and and and that could certainly be a headline
that comes out that just spooks investors because let's face it,
(32:26):
most people's wealth is tied to their home. Yeah, well,
I think the I think the the catalyst on that
is if unemployment starts to kick up to a you know, concerning.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Level above five percent, close to five percent, right.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
And then it puts people in situations where it's hard
for them to make the payments. But right now, it's
everybody's just staying in place, especially anybody who has low, low,
you know, locked in low mortgage rates.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
They're not Inventory is just not there is maybe one
of the bigger reasons why you know, you know, you
say that residential property, you say that, but there is
Like where I live, there's a ton Oh yeah, we
can't use there's a toll in Roseville as an example.
There's a ton of building they are building, you know,
they're trying to build what I would call affordable houses, trying,
(33:19):
but there's still you know, it's about six hundred to
one point five million for a track home.
Speaker 3 (33:26):
And they're trying to be creative. So they have these
incentives of you know, thirty thousand dollars credit to help
buy down your rate, right, so you can get some
maybe you can get into the fives.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
Yeah, you know, if you're lucky, high fives and five traditionally,
isn't that bad, no, you know, but when you're spoil
when we've been spoiled for so long being in the
you know, threes and fours, and then for a.
Speaker 3 (33:46):
Period of time it was in the twos.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
Yeah, you know, I couldn't move because I would not
give up my three and a half percent, you know, mortgage.
There's just no way. And before that I had two
point seventy five, so I.
Speaker 3 (33:58):
Have two point six two five.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
I was upset when we went from two point seventy
five to three point five, but you know, we moved.
Speaker 3 (34:06):
That's still a great even though it's still great compared
to what you imagine.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
I mean, take your mortgage and just double it to seven,
you know, and then you go, okay, let's say your
payments three thousand. Now for the same house, it's six thousand,
not counting taxes and insurance and all that. And that's why,
you know, real estate is taking a huge hit the
office that the virtual real estate is a whole different reason.
(34:31):
Certainly the loan the interest rates affect that. But let's
just face it, you just don't need high rises that
hold you know, two hundred thousand, fifty thousand, ten thousand
people anymore, you know, with technology, AI, virtual technology, all
those things. What do you need a massive, you know,
(34:54):
high rise office for? And that's why you see, you know,
that continuing to just be a lagger because you want.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
To have a good view high rise, right.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
I'm looking at looking at the ocean or something. Yet, Okay,
you're listening to the Wise Money Guys radio show, und
your co host John Scambray, and I'm here with my partner,
and if you're just tuning in, it's a good time
to tune in because we're going to give you some
of the tactics that we think are warranted and timely,
(35:25):
you know, especially with all the We weren't really negative,
but we were and again we're cautiously optimistic, but we've
seen this over and over and over again, and with
what our gut is telling us, with the things and
indicators are out there, and we're not by the way,
(35:47):
we're not dumping you know stocks, we're rebalancing, we're we're
locking in profit. But just talk about some of the tactics,
the portfolio tactics that we're doing that could be helpful.
Speaker 3 (35:59):
Sure, And I'd say before we jump into that, because
we haven't done in this radio episode.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
There's something we haven't done.
Speaker 3 (36:05):
Yeah, just talking about a little bit who we are,
right for maybe some new listeners of you know.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
People don't know who we are, but.
Speaker 3 (36:18):
That we are. You know, One Source Wealth Management we
did recently in the past couple months a partner with
a larger firm that is now I think I just
read thirteen billion in assets. I have to double check
that because it was like seven and nine. And then
I read something somebody said congratulations on their you know
(36:38):
communication that had like several communications thirteen billion in assets.
I'll have to double check that, so don't don't don't
put that as one hundred percent. So we'll have to
double check. But the nice thing is now before we
had and what we do is we don't have our
own bank or brokerage, the brokerage of One Source Wealth
Management or John of Giuseppe's brokerage. We use some of
(36:59):
the largest custodians out there, and so we had for
a long time schwab y our main one.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Just as a registered investment advisory firm, you can choose
to really who you want to partner with for your platform.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
Which is huge is which is huge, and you have
to be a certain size in order to get with
some of the big boys, right, So we have interactive brokers,
We have Schwab which we've had for a while, but
now that we've been partnered with farther and getting assimilated
into their network, we now have Fidelity. We do have
access that we'll be establishing here with Pershing, Goldman Sachs,
(37:37):
which are to B and Y Melon. So the nice
thing is now we have we had a lot of
choice before. Now we have the floodgates are essentially open
because we have a ton of choice out there because
now we have the.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
Access of resources from all those exactly custodians.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
Because we were on the institutional side of the platform,
you know, people might be thinking, oh, it's I can
get access. I could just log in as a retail
investor Fidelity, I can log as in a retail investor.
It's not the same thing. That's the retail side. We
have access to the institutional side of the platform, and
not only stuff that Fidelity has, but everything else that's
out there, and some alternative investments and private equity investments
(38:17):
and private credit credit investments and some of these things
that are unconventional.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Notes bury your funds, all.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
Kinds of rights, things that are unconventional, things that are
not available to retail investors. If you were to just
open an account or have an account at Fidelity or
gold Min Sack Well.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
That's a really good point. So if you have an
account at Fidelity or Schwab or gold Min, you don't
have to move your accounts for us to become your
advisor of record on those accounts, and so you know,
that's really probably one of the big things makes it easier.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
And by the.
Speaker 2 (38:54):
Way, we've got to make sure we get into the
portfolio tactic notes here, but will but this is but
it's important you know that that people know, especially as
you said, if you're just listening to us for the
first time, that you can come in for that consultation
and there's a really strong chance to hire us. You
don't need new account numbers, you don't need to set
(39:16):
up new money links, you don't need to set up
new you know, monthly distributions, whatever the case may be,
All of that stays the same. It's just we start,
you know, managing building, rebalancing your portfolio based on your
financial plan that if you don't want to have one,
you should and if you have one you should, it
(39:39):
should be reviewed and updated. And that's what we'll do
based on what that says, to make sure the management
of your money is in line with your goals and objectives.
And as we said, as a tactic you know earlier,
mitigating risk should always be a tactic.
Speaker 3 (39:59):
Yeah, mitigating, but to just to finish up on the
different custodians and now we're truly multi custodian. Is that
allows plentiful of choices out there and investment options and
that is huge if you think about it.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
Not anybody plentiful.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
You can be bountiful like that better, but you have
you know, if you think about it, you know, anyone
who has a four to one k out there, the
biggest drawback of a four to one K is you
have a narrow menu options. So some four one k's
they might be great, and have you know a myriad
of different options from different firms out there that might
(40:41):
have some Vanguard and t row Price and Fidelity and
so on and so forth. Then there's other four one
k's out there that have just principal funds and that's
it and maybe maybe maybe some indices or what have you. Right, so,
and it's either like it or leave it, and you
might have some mediocre options or not. And so that's
not the case with us. And by the way, I
think Trump has been trying to do an executive order
(41:05):
right on widening the options for retirement plans and having
more options, especially to the alternative space, which is huge
because that really helped people out and their portfolios in
twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2 (41:18):
Yeah, four one k's, I think, categorically, and from an
asset allocation perspective, you should have a percentage five percent,
ten percent, maybe you're up to fifteen percent of your
portfolio should be in the category of alternative investments because
of its low correlation to stocks and bonds.
Speaker 3 (41:38):
Whereas four one k's traditionally don't have that. And in
twenty twenty two, if you're diversified as much as you
can be, you primarily just had stocks and bonds in
some real estate, everything went down, Everything went down.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
But if you had alternatives, and again you know, to
learn more about alternatives, give us a call. But if
you had alternatives, they still eked out you know, distribution
and basically you know, the price, the price per share
stayed flat, maybe down a little bit, but if you
couple that with the dividends that you got paid, you know,
(42:12):
you were still positive positive cash flow help.
Speaker 3 (42:15):
Buffer the blow to the other asset classes.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
But looking at the rest of the tactics here just
some of these general strategies a rehash, but why don't
you go through So.
Speaker 3 (42:27):
We've been hammering how well the market has been performing,
its resiliency and the you know, technology sector and some
of the AI names out there have been skyrocketing again
after hitting you know, getting beaten up over the head
in April and May. So it's a good time to trim,
(42:50):
trim a little bit from your tech and AI some
of those high flying names. Take a little bit off
the table. You don't need to sell all of it,
you know, where could you put it? You can re distribute.
Maybe you had twenty five percent of your portfolio invested
solely in tech and that now has grown to thirty
five percent because it's taken off or forty percent, well
(43:10):
trim back down and go back to your initial twenty
five percent waiting. You can use stops. That is a
little tricky. But if you have a stock and you say, hey,
I thought I was going to get a hit one
hundred and fifty. Let's say in video, for example, I
thought I was going to hit one hundred and fifty.
Or I've told myself before, man, if this thing hits
one hundred and fifty, I'm going to sell it. But
(43:33):
now here you are, you haven't sold it, and you're like, nah,
maybe you can go to two hundred now right, put
some stops in there. Say hey, maybe if it goes
back down right and it goes down to one hundred
and seventy, you know, we're more.
Speaker 2 (43:44):
Buy and hold. But if you're doing things, you know,
individually without putting a whole lot of research into the stops,
could could make sense.
Speaker 3 (43:52):
And diversify in other sectors. Maybe healthcare industrials are taken
off right now. Utilities focused on companies with strong cash flow,
you know, they're fundamentals that goes more into the nitty gritty.
This is if you're paying a lot of attention to
have the resources. But if not, this is where you
come to us and if you have questions, say what
does this mean? What what's a strong cash flow? What
(44:14):
are EPs? What are fundamentals? What are technicals? This is
what we do. This is what we can explain and
help you with, and that's where you can call us
at nine thirty five hundred. This is also what we
go through in our workshops more in detail. You know,
we talk about these things in general, but that's really
(44:35):
where we like pull back the curtains and say, here's
kind of what a portfolio looks like. Here's a different
strategy specifically with a stock or fund or what have you.
And this is why we do it.
Speaker 2 (44:47):
So if we had to summarize, you know, everything we've
talked about, especially from a from a portfolio perspective, you know,
volatility is what we think is should it's going to
be kick uh. You know, there's technical risks, there's headline risks,
there's there's interest rate risks, there's geopolitical risks, evaluation, there's
(45:10):
fundamental risk. There's all kinds of reasons to be rebalancing here.
So give us a call at nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred. Hope you enjoyed listening to
John Scambray, Geuseppe Vescani, the Wise money guys. Have a
great weekend. Bye.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
What's your next weekend?
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