November 7, 2025 • 43 mins
Ohhh, the earnings are being released and they are Volitile. Big Ups for Tech and floating returns for consumers. Ok, but we ned to keep an eye on AI. Hosts John and Guiseppe are on it. Plus, Unemployment numbers, Longterm Planning, Shorting Stocks, and Data. The Wise Money Guys.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Good morning, and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show.
I'm your co host John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner jes Upa viscontin, and we're certified portfolio managers
that specialize in helping people who are retired are about
to retire manage their money. If you like our show,
have questions or want to set a no obligation consultation,
give us a call at nine one six ninety six
(00:35):
seven thirty five hundred. Gain that numbers nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. You can also visits
at our website at what buysmoneyguys dot com uh for
lots of great information, and there you will also find
a chat If you have just some quick questions, you'll
(00:55):
find the chat bot there that will answer most and
connect you to us if you want to take a
deeper dive. And also you can email us at Let's
see question guys dot com. Okay, I know I ran
out a lot said a lot of alsos, but also
(01:18):
there's a lot of you know, these the types of
weeks that really cement why you need to be working with,
you know, an investment professional to create your financial plan,
to help you with your investment off your plate so
you can enjoy retirement. Because you know, it's been all
over the place. I mean, we had, you know, a
(01:40):
big down day, then we had you know, followed by
a pretty good up day, now another down day, then
kind of a flat day. But the point is is
that volatility is all over the place, and every earnings
it's it's very similar in earnings, Josef. You haven't become
a out meeting or exceeding your innings anymore. It's all
(02:03):
about the guidance and then the market, retail investors, institutions,
people managing their own money tend to overreact, you know,
based on that guidance.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
On those earnings, things have ran up quite a bit,
and that's part of the reason why I'm in multipools.
And valuations of these stocks have some of them have
reached sky high. And we'll touch on some of the
Michael Berry, who the movie The Big Short is about,
who made all the money in two thousand and eight,
who has been on the downturn in two thousand and
(02:38):
eight was shorting There was an article that came out
at the beginning of the week that he's shorting ai
AI stocks, so that that was a little bit of
a catalyst for some of the AI names to start
selling off from the beginning of the week. And there's
there's more to it, which we can dive into it.
But you know, when they meet or beat, that's one thing.
(03:01):
But then when they have the forward guidance and they
have their earnings call and there's anything negative within that
earnings call, yeah, of course we're going to react because
because it's ran up so much, the prices ran up
so much forecasting all of the optimism in the stock
that any little negativity, I mean, things have to just
continue to go. And this is what we were talking
about that it's kind of like Goldilock's scenario.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
And these past.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Few radio shows we've been saying it's a good time
to rebalance. If you haven't rebalanced, look at your portfolio.
If you're in one as you know, heavy and one
asset class or some of these stocks have ran up
and they've become bigger waitings in you over our portfolio
might be a good time to trim right spread it
on to other asset classes to further diversify. And here
(03:45):
we are, volatility is finally picking up.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
You know what people have to understand, though, is the
earnings guidance is a game. It doesn't have to be factual,
and it doesn't have to be something that you're gonna
disclosed to the public. What whether or not, there's things
that you expect within in the next quarter that are
(04:09):
going to either you know, make earnings great or make
them not so great. It's it's more of you know,
the pressure on the CEO, the CFO, the COO, so
on and so forth. That's the c IO.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
That's a double being public though, right, that's why some
of these companies are moving to be private.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
But where I'm going is that, yeah, because of that,
but they typically are better off under promising. So you
can almost always expect guidance forward guidance. Now that isn't
going to be as stellar as you know, a company
that just beats its earnings. And in fact, you know,
(04:49):
four hundred major companies have reported earnings so far. We're
pretty much through all all the all the Biggies or
any any company that you really care about.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
You forg got one which one, the main one, the
main the one that's almost as important as as a federal.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
But still, you know, that's just one company, and it's
a big one. Like you said, it's been the it's
been the one everybody follows. Uh. But but nevertheless, so
you know, we're not going to have any big earnings news.
But but again you you you have to be cautious
around the earnings season and and don't get emotional about
(05:31):
it and make mistakes and over and over again. That's
where people will tend to lose money. They bought in
on on something that was already in my opinion, maybe
close to value or even over valued, and then earnings
comes out. These companies do well, whether it's Apple that
(05:51):
you know reported well, I have a feeling, and Video
is gonna report big numbers, but they tend to sell off,
you know, right right after because of that forward guidance,
but also because of profit taking. You know, as you've said,
things are overvalued and and and they're starting to be
(06:12):
profit taking. I mean the market as a whole.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
So you not only have individual companies, but you have
a market as a whole is the other component that
has been that's overvalued. And then you have the dominating
names that have been helping to carry a big portion
of the market right which we've talked about, and there
they've been, you know, some of them have been overvalued
as well. So aside from even earnings, it's not surprising
(06:38):
that profit taking is happening, but there's some other things
that that have taken place, which has been the catalyst
to picking up the volatility this this last week.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Yeah, here's here's my and and getting into this early.
Here's my strategy. Number one, especially with valuations where they
are now, you know, the volatility around earnings is I
wouldn't rush to buy the dip. You know, look valuations, financials,
(07:13):
you know, where where you're at, meaning where a company's at.
Uh when when you look at those things, especially compared
to you know, it's it's peers uh in in the
same sector. Don't just over you know, extend yourself in
any one particular company because around earnings the price dips
(07:37):
a bit. I would more sell you know, before earnings
and trim some of your position and recommend that as
a better strategy, especially if you've got huge profits in
a particular position versus you know, buying on the dip
right now.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Yeah, And there's different strategies, and you know, if if
your account is taxable or if it's a retirement account,
there's you know, different ways of looking at it. You
want to make sure you're constant of capital gains. And
those are the conversations you'd have with your advisor or
US or your CPA or accountant, especially if it's an
taxable account. If it's a retirement account, then you don't
have you don't have to worry about that. You can
(08:19):
buy and sell as much as you want.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Yeah. One of the things we do when we're rebalancing,
especially for as you said, taxable accounts, we're going to
look at what your realized gains are for the year
before we just go ahead and you know, dump something
that's out of you know, a pretty good sized profit.
And these are all things that I encourage you to,
(08:46):
you know, make sure that you're getting this level of
service and putting and if you're not putting this level
of thought before you know, blindly or maybe not blindly,
but for before making a quick decision on buying the
dip or or or trimming a position because you've made
(09:06):
a lot of money. You know, the tax consequence, how
it affects your overall plan. All of those things are important.
And and again, if you're not doing things to these levels,
I definitely recommend that you give us a call for
a no obligation consultation and we'll give you that baseline,
we'll start that financial plan for you all without having
(09:31):
to commit to working with us. So give us a
call at nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred.
So you know, it never ceases to amaze me. Still
that the the the slant. I don't know whether words
I'm looking for. How skewed the market still is? You
(09:55):
know you mentioned the Nvidia towards AI and and still
well that's still the trade you know today, Uh you
know here at what three quarters of the year, seven
eighths of the year gone that you know, it's all
about what what's Nvidia done? What's what's uh the different
(10:18):
different exactly, And what I think is happening is people
are missing out on tremendous you know, opportunity in other
areas like industrials, you know, like in uh, you know,
uh manufacturing, which is part of industrials, like in energy.
(10:38):
I was surprised. I was surprised, you see, you were
going to but but there's been great opportunities also in
in the medical side, farma, pharma, you know, things like that,
where you could still find positions for your portfolio that
you know are appropriate for your financial plan and your
(10:58):
goals that haven't gone up to some multiple that's way
beyond you know, the average with multiple exactly, so you know,
but more to come.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
We'll dive into Michael Burry, what's he all about, what's
he forecasting, what is he shorting? Mostly of those big
AI names. Reaction the tariffs we have Supreme Court and
Trump's tariffs coming up, the ten year treasury bond and
what's going on with that yield? How's that impacting the markets?
(11:35):
And then we've had because the government shutdown, we haven't
had some of the economic indicators and economic reports put
out there, but there's been a DP reports, the Challenger
Report that's giving us some insight on the employment, the
status of the employment out there.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
God, if I hear just any more about it, which
we're going to. But just I was talking about overreacting
on the earning side. You know that the market is
still so skewed towards gosh, what's happening with the AI companies,
so on and so forth. The other kind of news
and headlines that that have driven, you know, market reactions
(12:15):
and and really driven market over reactions is tariffs. I mean,
oh my god, just and now we're dealing with, you know,
waiting for the Supreme Court decision on tariffs, whether or
not their attacks or more importantly, whether or not the
executive the president, you know, under his emergency powers, has
(12:36):
the ability to tariff uh uh countries. I believe he does.
I believe the two acts that I've read give them
that authority. So so we'll see. Also, I think that's
a really big deal. If now you have the Supreme
Court legislating on congressional you know, uh, fiscal policy issues,
(13:01):
I mean, that would just be way way out over
their skis. But but we'll see how they interpret that.
The two acts that the President has been using that
were passed by Congress to give the president not taxing
(13:21):
but tarraffing if that's a word terraffing, Yeah, I guess
it is authority. And so that's huge. But but still
some of those things also impact as you've said, the
interest rates ten years.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
And if it does go through, and if there's got
to be a refund of those terriff and custom duties, right.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
And how would you give that money back? I don't know.
And why would you? I don't know.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
I mean, that's that's what people were like, you know,
how how would that look like? And how would that
carry out against?
Speaker 2 (13:54):
The Supreme Court has no such authority. They have no
fiscal authority whatsoever. If they say, oh, yeah, you you
tariffed another country, by the way, and we think it
wasn't you know, exactly as the Act allowed, you're gonna
(14:14):
they're going to say you have to First of all,
they can't do punitive things. That would be like a
damages decision almost coming from a court to say, okay,
you violated this, that or the other. Now your punitive damages.
United States of America are to pay back China, give
me a royal break, or whatever country that the proceeds
(14:37):
came from. And I think I think just that alone
is one of the reasons why they They they may
figure out a way to you know, guide on the
on the case, but not really you know, come out
(14:58):
with some sort of concrete decision on it, because you
just can't. The President has the authority to tariff other countries,
especially through different emergency acts that give him more authority
than just you know, the typical path to any sort
(15:18):
of fiscal decision, which typically obviously has to go through
the process through through Congress and the Senate and then
get signed into law, and and and that's not that's
not how these things are being done. And I think,
I mean the.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
Data, and I think the concerning part or the thing
that I'm looking at when I'm reading through this data
is how does this unfold in the long run?
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Right?
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Not so much in the short run, and not so
much the you know, if we have to refund the
tariffs are not because I'm thinking it'll probably stick and
they'll they'll be tariffs continuing on.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
And so what does that look like? What does that
look like long term? Right?
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Not this six to twelve month window. It's how do
companies and corporations adjust to that? Because we've taken in
right a little over two hundred billion, but from corporate
tax receipts they fell by fifty billions. So what that
says is that they're taking the initial hit, right, they're
not fully passing on these tariffs and these adjusted costs
(16:21):
to the consumer. But that can't last long term, right,
At some point either either the deal between those entities, countries,
whatever has to get down to a better equilibrium number
whatever that is. Right, Hey, we have you at twenty
five percent tarrifs, why don't we move down to ten
or so on and so forth?
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Right? Or if not manufacture things in the United States
and buy goods and service says from you know, companies
that do.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
If it was that easy, but at some point that easy,
but there's going to be a cost to revamping the
manufacturing in the US. Right, So it has to make sense.
You can't manufacture whatever. But the things that we're good
at and the things that make sense, we're good for everything.
But yeah, but to make to have a factory to
make socks and charge people, you know, double double the
(17:12):
cost for socks do it doesn't make sense. So it
makes sense to outsource. But it makes sense to outsource
two countries that are allies right tot to friendly and
not add the cereal countries. That's the big thing that
we're willing to work that. Hey, we can outsource x
Y and Z to you, right, and then you you
outsource or you you trade back with us, right because
(17:33):
we have resources or skill set or something that you don't,
and there's a good trade right there, and we're gonna
keep We're going to keep it here.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
Here's here's the real gist of it. Let's let's be
completely you know, frank about it. The reason why companies
have outsourced to foreign countries is because of the cost
of labor, end of story. Of course, not because they're
better at something or have more resources. The cost of costs.
(18:00):
They have to wait, wait here where I'm going on this.
So we just got through with four hundred major companies
reporting earning so far, eighty two percent of them exceeded
already lofty expectations of their earnings, beyond their previous quarter's earnings,
(18:23):
beyond their fiscal year earnings. And yet so what we're
saying is, in order to keep in the well, this
is really sounding a little bit left for me, in
order to keep at record highs, we will continue to use,
for lack of a better term, child labor. Countries that
(18:47):
don't have labor laws that can pay kids pennies to
manufacture socks go on extreme though, but that's extreme. But
that's my point. That's extreme. We can absorb and so
they are in labor, so we see that. That's what
the data says. They have absorbed it. They have to
absorbed it.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
My concern is how much do they absorb and for
how long until it passes on to the consumer? Right,
So there's a good things and it doesn't have to
be extreme where you go into some third world country
child labor.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
There are other countries companies have done right for decades, right,
But but why not have it?
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Or you can just go to another country where labor
and land is cheaper. The United States is expensive, right,
We have cheaper parts with the United States, which would
make sense, but in general it's expensive, right, yes, and
so and so you'd have to So there's plenty of
other places out there, and it doesn't have to be
China and out of a serial country. There could be
(19:47):
other places out there. It's just they've got stuck in
their ways. And to your point, yes, they've got stuck
in the ways. They've made a deal with China years
and decades and decades and decades ago, and they've been
bringing in these massive profits. Right by a pair of
nikes that cost three dollars overall, and they sell it,
and they selling, yeah, and they're selling for one hundred
bucks or whatever, right, and.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
They get used to that. But now you certainly haven't
bought a pair of good Nikes in a while.
Speaker 3 (20:11):
No, I'm not paying one hundred and fifty bucks for
sexuallyetic material.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
You know, above two hundred for a pair of tent
You won't see me with those synthet It's synthetic. I
look at it.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
Synthetic material that costs nothing. I know it costs nothing.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
I pay for material itself.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
I want it to be. I want to be real leather,
super comfortable. It can last for like five years at least.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
And the leather to go with your gold. You're Italian, say,
I love gold, your gold. But we'll see where this data.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
Because of that, that's something to look at, right and
to pay attention in regards to to the whole tariff situation.
So far, the market is adorable and it has been
resilenting because we've been hitting all time highs. I mean
not lately, but again.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Back up, we're hitting all time hides highs because of
record profits of these companies. But that's what I'm saying,
so your point, but they could still profit. They can
still profit. They would still massively profit even if the
cost of production, as long as predictivity is going up,
as long as supply is outpacing demand, even if costs
(21:17):
cost more for these companies to create their output of
a good or service, as long as supply and productivity
is there, there will be no inflation. That is that
is the key, that's the difference between That's what supply
side economics are is. It's about increasing and making productivity
(21:37):
more efficient so that you have you know, increased supply
at a better cost.
Speaker 3 (21:43):
So so maybe some of those things through AI and
robotics that can help replace some of that, but that
also comes with a cost too, right, AI costs something,
robotics costs something, and it'll it'll get to a point where, okay,
over five years, maybe we hit a break even and
then we've become a problem. So all those things have
to be worked out. But it's interesting when I just
(22:05):
saw that data because so far, you know, corporations, major
corporations have been taken a hit.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
We'll see how long that lasts. Yeah, at the end
of the day, we have these conversations and put them
out there, you know, in an open forum, into the public,
because this is the types of thoughts and and really
the effort you have to dive into to figure out,
you know, where to put your money, where we put
(22:33):
people's money, and what type of portfolios we build for
them is based on the data that is constantly you know,
coming out and changing, and it's it's a lot more
complex than just you know, kind of circling back just
oh I like this stock. The stock just dipped for
(22:54):
whatever reason, I'm going to buy more of it. Or
I like this stock it's gone up to you know,
real lofty levels and I'm not going to sell any
of it. Those could all be the wrong decisions. And
when it comes to your retirement wealth, your retirement income,
your legacy assets, you know, the things that you have
(23:16):
worked to build your whole entire life and save, you know,
don't go it alone. Give us a call at nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred for a
no obligation consultation and a complementary retirement plan analysis. And
more importantly, you know, we're talking about a lot of
(23:37):
things that really impact investment decisions that we make for
our ants. And that you should consider when you're making
investment decisions, if you're going it alone or hopefully you're
getting you know, the level of attention that you deserve
from whoever you work with and whoever your professionals are
(24:00):
not again, give us a call. But but there's just
more going on. So if it's not the tariffs, if
there's more, yes, and there's more, But if you buy now,
we'll give you a set of we'll add on a
second set. But reality is what we've been dealing with
(24:22):
all year is a major focus on the tech sector.
Within that tech sector, you know, both on the downside
and up on the upside, AI earnings. And if it's
not that, then it's been tariffs and what's going on,
you know with with tariffs and and negotiations with China,
the EU, Canada, Mexico, other Southeast Asian countries, so on
(24:46):
and so forth. And then you layer on the government
shut down, You layer on inflation data and interest rate
decisions from the f O, m C, so on and
so forths stressing me up is a beat of sweat
starting to come down for it. But even with that,
(25:07):
it's still been a year to where if if you
weren't emotional. If if you worked with people who you know,
focus on portfolio management and focus on you know, creating
the portfolios that are in line with your with your plan,
your goals and objectives, then you haven't had to really,
(25:30):
you know, worry about all of those things. But still,
you know, some of the things that that we worry
about from you know, a ten year treasury or an
interest rate, uh decision is whether or not we can
get you into you know, good bond rates and things
like that, or some of the structured notes that we like,
(25:51):
and you know, if if some of those might be being called.
And there's just so many things and still I'm looking
at this list and why don't you go through some
of them, because it's just it's it's not going to
slow down here at the end of the year, even
though at least we don't have, you know, another big
fed kind of decision. But once again, you want to
(26:17):
be really diving into your portfolio from from attax mitigation,
from a rebalancing and getting yourself set up for having
a good year next year. And all of these things
should be considered.
Speaker 3 (26:32):
Well and it has to align with your overall plan.
A lot of people. And we've talked about this several times.
Is people get carried away with some of the details
or diving into the weeds. We we kind of dove
into quite a bit of weeds so far in the show.
But you have to zoom out right for your own
personal picture, that's that, and focus on things that are
(26:53):
important to you and your family and and say, Okay,
what's the macro picture.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
What am I trying to achieve here?
Speaker 3 (27:00):
Whether it's retirement or or whatever financial goal that you
have out there, there's going to be a timeline on that.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
Right.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
If it's retirement, what does my retirement look like for
the next twenty twenty five thirty years, and what is
my money need to do for me for.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
That period of time.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
A lot of times people get carried away and be like, oh,
I'm going to jump into you know, this stock or
that stock because it's taking off, or it has something
to do with this technology or that new technology or
drones or so on and so forth, and you know,
I can make a hundred I can potentially make one
hundred percent. I missed out on the other one that
went up one hundred percent. You know, how can I great?
(27:37):
You know, if if you can add some of those
into your portfolio, great, But if you're just focusing on
all those little aspects all the time, you're you're going
to be moving around and there's really going to be
no method to the madness other than just trying to
chase performance. And then when you have volatility kick in
the markets, when you have some of these things that
we talked about of you know, terroriffts and AI and
(27:58):
disruptors in AI, or you know, profits aren't going to
be as fruitful as we thought in AI and all
the spending like Meta Medical was won right where they
came out and said, oh we had all the spending
and they went down eleven percent the very next day.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
Those sort of things.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Then that forces you to start making emotional decisions because like,
oh my gosh, maybe I was wrong, Maybe I don't Well,
you didn't need to go after that stock to go
after a fifty or one hundred percent turn in the
first place, right, and so you didn't need to take
that investment asset that has such a high volatility right
ride and put that into your portfolio. It's focusing on
(28:36):
the big picture, putting a plan around how do you
how do you successfully create longevity with your assets. You
could take a small portion of it and and go
after the gusto, but you don't want to take so
much and put too much emphasis more than it could
blow you up. Right where April and May this year
people were panicking if they had a heavy weighting in
(28:58):
certain stocks, all the stock market goes up. But it's
it's it's a tactful ride, and you want to be
choosy in your investments. Some of the things that are
hitting the market right now, like you know, we've already
talked about, is Michael Burry. He's if you hadn't seen
the Big Short movie, it's all about two thousand and eight,
and this guy made billions of dollars shorting, which which
basically just means putting investment bets out there. When things
(29:23):
go down in price, you make a touch, you make
money even though it's going down. He's he's making a bet.
And I said AI stocks and that that article came out.
But when you look at his positions, it's more on Palenteer.
Pallenteer is a big one that because as a pe
of two thirteen that's very very very high. And video
for example, has a pe or price to earnings of
(29:46):
thirty three, just to give you some concept. So, you know,
has he made his money and Piloeer shorting paleteer yet?
Is it still out there? I don't know. I mean
he's so far, probably did pretty good this week.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
Yeah this week, who knows. He may have been at
a loss if he started shorten it, you know, months ago,
because palunteers, you know, palunteers fifty two week low or
low just this year is in the fifties. Yeah, it's
closer to two hundred and so just depends on when
(30:20):
he started shorting the stock. And just so you understand
that shorting a stock basically means you borrow shares. You
don't own the shares. You've borrowed shares, and your debt
is those shares. It's not the dollars that those shares represent.
Your actual debt is those shares, and you want to
(30:41):
repay back those shares at a lower price than what
those shares were valued at when you bought them. That
is what shorting means. And so there's different ways to
short and hedge that have a different type of purpose,
but in essence, you're borrowing shares. So let me give
you a quick example, any stock doesn't matter, and the
(31:04):
current price is at ten bucks, and I think the
shares are going to go down to five bucks, so
I borrow a thousand shares. That's in essence, borrowing something
worth ten thousand dollars. Okay, I receive ten thousand dollars,
all right. Now I return those shares when it cost
(31:25):
me five thousand dollars because the stock price went down
to five dollars. So I return those shares at a
cost of five dollars a share, or five thousand dollars.
My net profit is five thousand dollars. So that is
how you make money shorting is you expect the share
price to go down. You borrow shares, hopefully at a
(31:46):
higher price than you return those shares at. That is
less than one oh one today shorting a stock.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
Yeah, and if you haven't done it, don't just go rush.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
Hot control my god, please, because very risky limits are unlimited.
So let's say now you short a stock. Let's use
that ten dollars. What did I say ten dollars stock? No? Well,
I thought, I said risk is oh, I said limited?
It's limited. And so let's say again, you decide to
short a ten dollars stock and you do one thousand shares.
(32:20):
What if that stock goes to one hundred, Now you
owe those shares back at one hundred thousand, and you
only received ten thousand. You just lost ninety thousand dollars.
And by the way, that's what drove you know, the
crash and made it worse. In any major market crash.
(32:42):
You know, short people and people who are short the
mark five feet under five feet people are short the market.
You know, got margin calls, got calls to cover cover
you know, their losses, and they didn't have it, so
then they declare bankruptcies. And so, you know, you had
(33:03):
a client, I'm sorry to take us out on a tangent,
but we had a client who was interested in some
leveraged shares. Leveraged funds are tend to have short bets
on the market, and short bets are great. You know
a lot of times or they've they've borrowed shares against
(33:25):
their position, which i e. Leverage, but also they have
so they've borrowed shares and they've borrowed them at again,
let's say it's ten dollars a share. Now those shares
have gone up, you know, drastically and they have to
repay those shares at a at a much higher price.
So use using leveraged funds, using things that have short
(33:50):
positions can be very dangerous, especially in a bull market.
Now if you're just parly on the on the on
the bowl side, where heck, I'm doubled down. You know, okay,
let's take I own these shares instead of I borrowed
these shares and then I borrow money to buy even
(34:12):
more shares, I e. The leverage and the and the
share price goes up, you know, ching ching win or
winter chicken dinner. But again, an you're leveraging, borrowing, shorting,
it just it amplifies your risk. And so from a
retirement perspective, I highly recommend I if you're retired and
(34:36):
you have your million, your two million, your five hundred thousand, investments,
don't get caught up and potentially you know success stories
and typically their stories on you know how great levered
investments can be or short shorting can be. It's a
(34:59):
far risk year to be a bear and making big
bear bets than it is to be a bull and
just riding out you know, uh market volatility right and
before and make a shameless pitch for people to call
us and come in and get on our calendar any more,
you know, current events or things that we should touch upon.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Yeah, some of the other concerns out there is some
of the data that's coming out from ADP and and
the Challenger report just showing that there's more layoffs happening.
Maybe some of it's tied to AI and just the
efficiency that that's creating. But that is, you know a
concern because obviously the Federal Reserve is focusing more on
(35:43):
the employment, the status of employment or for unemployment, and
that's why VERSUSPI or PPI or versus versus inflation, which
drove them to have these two rate cuts so far
this year. We'll see if they do another one in December,
and then you know, this.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
Actually might be the best best the Fed can be
because think about it, the data revise data and data
that almost is never you know, correct, because think about it,
c p I, p p I, PCEE, all these you know,
unemployment numbers, you know, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, what
(36:25):
I guess, being the main driver of some of this
dator U some of this data.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
Did you have one question though, did you have coffee
this morning.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
I did have a cup of a cup of coffee,
So but I can't say that I'm surprised and I
could tell, but the reality is they give all these
monthly numbers, quarterly numbers, and then they revise them a
month later a quarter said this might be. But that's
the data decision making that the FED does because they
(36:57):
don't rely on data that's just going to be and
wrong anyway. Who I yeah, I don't.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I still don't have complete faith because they're they're because
they're kind of late in the game.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
But yeah, well we'll see how Powell is. Why, Yeah,
he's been given that. Nick, Well, here's here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
I mean, you don't have to get you don't have
to be a rocket scientists, but look, you have all
these you have like one hundred some hds all economists,
so on and so forth. And then they admitted back
when inflation was going sky high and was CPI was
over nine percent right in twenty twenty two, and they
admitted they're wrong. Janet Yellen Rome Powell admitted that they
were wrong and it was transitory.
Speaker 2 (37:38):
So really it wasn't transitory.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Point that it was transitory, and they were wrong. What
I'm saying is they admitted that, oh no, it's not transitory.
We were wrong, and therefore we have to we have
to start raising.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
It was transitory, and it was, and the problem is
admitted it.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
Yeah, And the problem is is is it Is it
because it didn't have enough data, or is it because
the data wasn't correct, manipul or manipulated, or is it
the political right or is it a combination of all.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
But unfortunately, this is the data we have.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
Maybe at some point they REVAMPA to get more accurate information,
but so far the data that we have come in.
Right now, we don't have data. We still don't have
certain data because the government is still shut down. But
the data that we do have is suggesting that there's
more layoffs, so that emboldens the Federal Reserve and where
they're at and the decisions that they've made as far
as the two rate cuts that they've had. We'll see
(38:33):
how it continues to unfold for Decembers meeting and if
they do another quarter point rate cut. The low income households,
what the data is showing is rising credit auto student
loan delinquencies. On the other side of the spectrum, the wealthy,
the baby boomers and so on and so forth are
still spending. So that's still creating resiliency around their consumer spending.
(38:57):
And so you have this dichotomy here, right, or or
binary or division. Lower income is filling the pinch, especially
with the inflation that's that's had taken place in the
past few years. Things cost more money, right, and so
you're seeing credit card debt rising, delinquency is starting to
happen across different areas of loans. But on the other
(39:20):
side of the spectrum, you have stock market that's continued
that had a couple of great years, right, people making
You have some some areas of the industry where people
making more money than they've made before. And you have
the wealthy who have been invested in either real assets
or liquid assets like stocks and bonds and things like
that and have appreciated seeing their portfolio appreciate, and they're
(39:40):
continuing to spend.
Speaker 2 (39:41):
Yeah, so let's recap a little bit. So main strategies
that we've been discussing today are really take a deep
dive before making a decision or overreacting to earnings or
any of the news on tariffs or the shut down,
or on interest rate decisions, so on, so forth. Don't
(40:01):
just you know, buy more of a stock because the
price dipped here, it still might be overvalued even after dipping.
And then also if you do have a highly appreciated stock,
consider trimming some of that position. You don't have to
get out of all of it, especially if you have
a tax consequence. But consider you know, rebalancing right here
(40:27):
before the end of the year and focus on you
know what sort of tax impact it has. Now, if
these aren't things that you normally do for yourself and
you're not sure they're being done, let us help you.
We will do a free portfolio review. We'll try to
help you understand what sort of gains or tax consequences
(40:50):
you are will help you understand, you know, the level
of risk that you have in your portfolio. And maybe
you don't need that sort of risk to get the
type cash that's aligned. Yeah, to get the type of
cash flow or income out of your investments. Maybe you
can take less risk because you don't have good quality
(41:13):
hide pain dividend positions like certain stocks or ETFs or alternatives.
Maybe you're not you know, you've been just writing money
market interest rates down on your cash and there's still
great bond rates out there, there's great note rates out there.
All of these things we will be happy to share
(41:33):
with you with absolutely no obligation. By giving us a
call at nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred,
get on our calendar. We can meet via zoom. We'd
love to meet you in our office. If you're in
the Bay area. We have a convenient location there for you,
(41:53):
in Walnut Creek and in Conquered Also, if you're in
the Haho Reno areas, we can meet there. We love
meeting people face to face versus over the internet, which
I believe is a dying thing, and I'm so happy
that we still do that. You know, the webin o,
(42:15):
the zoom in you know, no, no, no, no, no,
just that you know, we're all about face to face
and we will come to a convenience. We still do.
We still do zoom and what happens. Aren't comfortable with
that and want that, but we don't. We don't mind
at all meeting face to face. So we prefer that.
We're old school, we you know, we we prefer meeting
(42:35):
face to face. Again, to get on our calendar for
an hour or two for that no obligation consultation called
nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Well,
I hope you enjoyed listening to the wise money guys.
John's gambraye to Seppie Piscani, have a wonderful weekend and
come back and give us a listen again next weekend. Bye.
All weekend
Speaker 3 (43:00):
Really does
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Good morning, and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show.
I'm your co host John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner jes Upa viscontin, and we're certified portfolio managers
that specialize in helping people who are retired are about
to retire manage their money. If you like our show,
have questions or want to set a no obligation consultation,
give us a call at nine one six ninety six
(00:35):
seven thirty five hundred. Gain that numbers nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. You can also visits
at our website at what buysmoneyguys dot com uh for
lots of great information, and there you will also find
a chat If you have just some quick questions, you'll
(00:55):
find the chat bot there that will answer most and
connect you to us if you want to take a
deeper dive. And also you can email us at Let's
see question guys dot com. Okay, I know I ran
out a lot said a lot of alsos, but also
(01:18):
there's a lot of you know, these the types of
weeks that really cement why you need to be working with,
you know, an investment professional to create your financial plan,
to help you with your investment off your plate so
you can enjoy retirement. Because you know, it's been all
over the place. I mean, we had, you know, a
(01:40):
big down day, then we had you know, followed by
a pretty good up day, now another down day, then
kind of a flat day. But the point is is
that volatility is all over the place, and every earnings
it's it's very similar in earnings, Josef. You haven't become
a out meeting or exceeding your innings anymore. It's all
(02:03):
about the guidance and then the market, retail investors, institutions,
people managing their own money tend to overreact, you know,
based on that guidance.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
On those earnings, things have ran up quite a bit,
and that's part of the reason why I'm in multipools.
And valuations of these stocks have some of them have
reached sky high. And we'll touch on some of the
Michael Berry, who the movie The Big Short is about,
who made all the money in two thousand and eight,
who has been on the downturn in two thousand and
(02:38):
eight was shorting There was an article that came out
at the beginning of the week that he's shorting ai
AI stocks, so that that was a little bit of
a catalyst for some of the AI names to start
selling off from the beginning of the week. And there's
there's more to it, which we can dive into it.
But you know, when they meet or beat, that's one thing.
(03:01):
But then when they have the forward guidance and they
have their earnings call and there's anything negative within that
earnings call, yeah, of course we're going to react because
because it's ran up so much, the prices ran up
so much forecasting all of the optimism in the stock
that any little negativity, I mean, things have to just
continue to go. And this is what we were talking
about that it's kind of like Goldilock's scenario.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
And these past.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Few radio shows we've been saying it's a good time
to rebalance. If you haven't rebalanced, look at your portfolio.
If you're in one as you know, heavy and one
asset class or some of these stocks have ran up
and they've become bigger waitings in you over our portfolio
might be a good time to trim right spread it
on to other asset classes to further diversify. And here
(03:45):
we are, volatility is finally picking up.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
You know what people have to understand, though, is the
earnings guidance is a game. It doesn't have to be factual,
and it doesn't have to be something that you're gonna
disclosed to the public. What whether or not, there's things
that you expect within in the next quarter that are
(04:09):
going to either you know, make earnings great or make
them not so great. It's it's more of you know,
the pressure on the CEO, the CFO, the COO, so
on and so forth. That's the c IO.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
That's a double being public though, right, that's why some
of these companies are moving to be private.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
But where I'm going is that, yeah, because of that,
but they typically are better off under promising. So you
can almost always expect guidance forward guidance. Now that isn't
going to be as stellar as you know, a company
that just beats its earnings. And in fact, you know,
(04:49):
four hundred major companies have reported earnings so far. We're
pretty much through all all the all the Biggies or
any any company that you really care about.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
You forg got one which one, the main one, the
main the one that's almost as important as as a federal.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
But still, you know, that's just one company, and it's
a big one. Like you said, it's been the it's
been the one everybody follows. Uh. But but nevertheless, so
you know, we're not going to have any big earnings news.
But but again you you you have to be cautious
around the earnings season and and don't get emotional about
(05:31):
it and make mistakes and over and over again. That's
where people will tend to lose money. They bought in
on on something that was already in my opinion, maybe
close to value or even over valued, and then earnings
comes out. These companies do well, whether it's Apple that
(05:51):
you know reported well, I have a feeling, and Video
is gonna report big numbers, but they tend to sell off,
you know, right right after because of that forward guidance,
but also because of profit taking. You know, as you've said,
things are overvalued and and and they're starting to be
(06:12):
profit taking. I mean the market as a whole.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
So you not only have individual companies, but you have
a market as a whole is the other component that
has been that's overvalued. And then you have the dominating
names that have been helping to carry a big portion
of the market right which we've talked about, and there
they've been, you know, some of them have been overvalued
as well. So aside from even earnings, it's not surprising
(06:38):
that profit taking is happening, but there's some other things
that that have taken place, which has been the catalyst
to picking up the volatility this this last week.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Yeah, here's here's my and and getting into this early.
Here's my strategy. Number one, especially with valuations where they
are now, you know, the volatility around earnings is I
wouldn't rush to buy the dip. You know, look valuations, financials,
(07:13):
you know, where where you're at, meaning where a company's at.
Uh when when you look at those things, especially compared
to you know, it's it's peers uh in in the
same sector. Don't just over you know, extend yourself in
any one particular company because around earnings the price dips
(07:37):
a bit. I would more sell you know, before earnings
and trim some of your position and recommend that as
a better strategy, especially if you've got huge profits in
a particular position versus you know, buying on the dip
right now.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Yeah, And there's different strategies, and you know, if if
your account is taxable or if it's a retirement account,
there's you know, different ways of looking at it. You
want to make sure you're constant of capital gains. And
those are the conversations you'd have with your advisor or
US or your CPA or accountant, especially if it's an
taxable account. If it's a retirement account, then you don't
have you don't have to worry about that. You can
(08:19):
buy and sell as much as you want.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Yeah. One of the things we do when we're rebalancing,
especially for as you said, taxable accounts, we're going to
look at what your realized gains are for the year
before we just go ahead and you know, dump something
that's out of you know, a pretty good sized profit.
And these are all things that I encourage you to,
(08:46):
you know, make sure that you're getting this level of
service and putting and if you're not putting this level
of thought before you know, blindly or maybe not blindly,
but for before making a quick decision on buying the
dip or or or trimming a position because you've made
(09:06):
a lot of money. You know, the tax consequence, how
it affects your overall plan. All of those things are important.
And and again, if you're not doing things to these levels,
I definitely recommend that you give us a call for
a no obligation consultation and we'll give you that baseline,
we'll start that financial plan for you all without having
(09:31):
to commit to working with us. So give us a
call at nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred.
So you know, it never ceases to amaze me. Still
that the the the slant. I don't know whether words
I'm looking for. How skewed the market still is? You
(09:55):
know you mentioned the Nvidia towards AI and and still
well that's still the trade you know today, Uh you
know here at what three quarters of the year, seven
eighths of the year gone that you know, it's all
about what what's Nvidia done? What's what's uh the different
(10:18):
different exactly, And what I think is happening is people
are missing out on tremendous you know, opportunity in other
areas like industrials, you know, like in uh, you know,
uh manufacturing, which is part of industrials, like in energy.
(10:38):
I was surprised. I was surprised, you see, you were
going to but but there's been great opportunities also in
in the medical side, farma, pharma, you know, things like that,
where you could still find positions for your portfolio that
you know are appropriate for your financial plan and your
(10:58):
goals that haven't gone up to some multiple that's way
beyond you know, the average with multiple exactly, so you know,
but more to come.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
We'll dive into Michael Burry, what's he all about, what's
he forecasting, what is he shorting? Mostly of those big
AI names. Reaction the tariffs we have Supreme Court and
Trump's tariffs coming up, the ten year treasury bond and
what's going on with that yield? How's that impacting the markets?
(11:35):
And then we've had because the government shutdown, we haven't
had some of the economic indicators and economic reports put
out there, but there's been a DP reports, the Challenger
Report that's giving us some insight on the employment, the
status of the employment out there.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
God, if I hear just any more about it, which
we're going to. But just I was talking about overreacting
on the earning side. You know that the market is
still so skewed towards gosh, what's happening with the AI companies,
so on and so forth. The other kind of news
and headlines that that have driven, you know, market reactions
(12:15):
and and really driven market over reactions is tariffs. I mean,
oh my god, just and now we're dealing with, you know,
waiting for the Supreme Court decision on tariffs, whether or
not their attacks or more importantly, whether or not the
executive the president, you know, under his emergency powers, has
(12:36):
the ability to tariff uh uh countries. I believe he does.
I believe the two acts that I've read give them
that authority. So so we'll see. Also, I think that's
a really big deal. If now you have the Supreme
Court legislating on congressional you know, uh, fiscal policy issues,
(13:01):
I mean, that would just be way way out over
their skis. But but we'll see how they interpret that.
The two acts that the President has been using that
were passed by Congress to give the president not taxing
(13:21):
but tarraffing if that's a word terraffing, Yeah, I guess
it is authority. And so that's huge. But but still
some of those things also impact as you've said, the
interest rates ten years.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
And if it does go through, and if there's got
to be a refund of those terriff and custom duties, right.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
And how would you give that money back? I don't know.
And why would you? I don't know.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
I mean, that's that's what people were like, you know,
how how would that look like? And how would that
carry out against?
Speaker 2 (13:54):
The Supreme Court has no such authority. They have no
fiscal authority whatsoever. If they say, oh, yeah, you you
tariffed another country, by the way, and we think it
wasn't you know, exactly as the Act allowed, you're gonna
(14:14):
they're going to say you have to First of all,
they can't do punitive things. That would be like a
damages decision almost coming from a court to say, okay,
you violated this, that or the other. Now your punitive damages.
United States of America are to pay back China, give
me a royal break, or whatever country that the proceeds
(14:37):
came from. And I think I think just that alone
is one of the reasons why they They they may
figure out a way to you know, guide on the
on the case, but not really you know, come out
(14:58):
with some sort of concrete decision on it, because you
just can't. The President has the authority to tariff other countries,
especially through different emergency acts that give him more authority
than just you know, the typical path to any sort
(15:18):
of fiscal decision, which typically obviously has to go through
the process through through Congress and the Senate and then
get signed into law, and and and that's not that's
not how these things are being done. And I think,
I mean the.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
Data, and I think the concerning part or the thing
that I'm looking at when I'm reading through this data
is how does this unfold in the long run?
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Right?
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Not so much in the short run, and not so
much the you know, if we have to refund the
tariffs are not because I'm thinking it'll probably stick and
they'll they'll be tariffs continuing on.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
And so what does that look like? What does that
look like long term? Right?
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Not this six to twelve month window. It's how do
companies and corporations adjust to that? Because we've taken in
right a little over two hundred billion, but from corporate
tax receipts they fell by fifty billions. So what that
says is that they're taking the initial hit, right, they're
not fully passing on these tariffs and these adjusted costs
(16:21):
to the consumer. But that can't last long term, right,
At some point either either the deal between those entities, countries,
whatever has to get down to a better equilibrium number
whatever that is. Right, Hey, we have you at twenty
five percent tarrifs, why don't we move down to ten
or so on and so forth?
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Right? Or if not manufacture things in the United States
and buy goods and service says from you know, companies
that do.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
If it was that easy, but at some point that easy,
but there's going to be a cost to revamping the
manufacturing in the US. Right, So it has to make sense.
You can't manufacture whatever. But the things that we're good
at and the things that make sense, we're good for everything.
But yeah, but to make to have a factory to
make socks and charge people, you know, double double the
(17:12):
cost for socks do it doesn't make sense. So it
makes sense to outsource. But it makes sense to outsource
two countries that are allies right tot to friendly and
not add the cereal countries. That's the big thing that
we're willing to work that. Hey, we can outsource x
Y and Z to you, right, and then you you
outsource or you you trade back with us, right because
(17:33):
we have resources or skill set or something that you don't,
and there's a good trade right there, and we're gonna
keep We're going to keep it here.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
Here's here's the real gist of it. Let's let's be
completely you know, frank about it. The reason why companies
have outsourced to foreign countries is because of the cost
of labor, end of story. Of course, not because they're
better at something or have more resources. The cost of costs.
(18:00):
They have to wait, wait here where I'm going on this.
So we just got through with four hundred major companies
reporting earning so far, eighty two percent of them exceeded
already lofty expectations of their earnings, beyond their previous quarter's earnings,
(18:23):
beyond their fiscal year earnings. And yet so what we're
saying is, in order to keep in the well, this
is really sounding a little bit left for me, in
order to keep at record highs, we will continue to use,
for lack of a better term, child labor. Countries that
(18:47):
don't have labor laws that can pay kids pennies to
manufacture socks go on extreme though, but that's extreme. But
that's my point. That's extreme. We can absorb and so
they are in labor, so we see that. That's what
the data says. They have absorbed it. They have to
absorbed it.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
My concern is how much do they absorb and for
how long until it passes on to the consumer? Right,
So there's a good things and it doesn't have to
be extreme where you go into some third world country
child labor.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
There are other countries companies have done right for decades, right,
But but why not have it?
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Or you can just go to another country where labor
and land is cheaper. The United States is expensive, right,
We have cheaper parts with the United States, which would
make sense, but in general it's expensive, right, yes, and
so and so you'd have to So there's plenty of
other places out there, and it doesn't have to be
China and out of a serial country. There could be
(19:47):
other places out there. It's just they've got stuck in
their ways. And to your point, yes, they've got stuck
in the ways. They've made a deal with China years
and decades and decades and decades ago, and they've been
bringing in these massive profits. Right by a pair of
nikes that cost three dollars overall, and they sell it,
and they selling, yeah, and they're selling for one hundred
bucks or whatever, right, and.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
They get used to that. But now you certainly haven't
bought a pair of good Nikes in a while.
Speaker 3 (20:11):
No, I'm not paying one hundred and fifty bucks for
sexuallyetic material.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
You know, above two hundred for a pair of tent
You won't see me with those synthet It's synthetic. I
look at it.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
Synthetic material that costs nothing. I know it costs nothing.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
I pay for material itself.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
I want it to be. I want to be real leather,
super comfortable. It can last for like five years at least.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
And the leather to go with your gold. You're Italian, say,
I love gold, your gold. But we'll see where this data.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
Because of that, that's something to look at, right and
to pay attention in regards to to the whole tariff situation.
So far, the market is adorable and it has been
resilenting because we've been hitting all time highs. I mean
not lately, but again.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Back up, we're hitting all time hides highs because of
record profits of these companies. But that's what I'm saying,
so your point, but they could still profit. They can
still profit. They would still massively profit even if the
cost of production, as long as predictivity is going up,
as long as supply is outpacing demand, even if costs
(21:17):
cost more for these companies to create their output of
a good or service, as long as supply and productivity
is there, there will be no inflation. That is that
is the key, that's the difference between That's what supply
side economics are is. It's about increasing and making productivity
(21:37):
more efficient so that you have you know, increased supply
at a better cost.
Speaker 3 (21:43):
So so maybe some of those things through AI and
robotics that can help replace some of that, but that
also comes with a cost too, right, AI costs something,
robotics costs something, and it'll it'll get to a point where, okay,
over five years, maybe we hit a break even and
then we've become a problem. So all those things have
to be worked out. But it's interesting when I just
(22:05):
saw that data because so far, you know, corporations, major
corporations have been taken a hit.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
We'll see how long that lasts. Yeah, at the end
of the day, we have these conversations and put them
out there, you know, in an open forum, into the public,
because this is the types of thoughts and and really
the effort you have to dive into to figure out,
you know, where to put your money, where we put
(22:33):
people's money, and what type of portfolios we build for
them is based on the data that is constantly you know,
coming out and changing, and it's it's a lot more
complex than just you know, kind of circling back just
oh I like this stock. The stock just dipped for
(22:54):
whatever reason, I'm going to buy more of it. Or
I like this stock it's gone up to you know,
real lofty levels and I'm not going to sell any
of it. Those could all be the wrong decisions. And
when it comes to your retirement wealth, your retirement income,
your legacy assets, you know, the things that you have
(23:16):
worked to build your whole entire life and save, you know,
don't go it alone. Give us a call at nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred for a
no obligation consultation and a complementary retirement plan analysis. And
more importantly, you know, we're talking about a lot of
(23:37):
things that really impact investment decisions that we make for
our ants. And that you should consider when you're making
investment decisions, if you're going it alone or hopefully you're
getting you know, the level of attention that you deserve
from whoever you work with and whoever your professionals are
(24:00):
not again, give us a call. But but there's just
more going on. So if it's not the tariffs, if
there's more, yes, and there's more, But if you buy now,
we'll give you a set of we'll add on a
second set. But reality is what we've been dealing with
(24:22):
all year is a major focus on the tech sector.
Within that tech sector, you know, both on the downside
and up on the upside, AI earnings. And if it's
not that, then it's been tariffs and what's going on,
you know with with tariffs and and negotiations with China,
the EU, Canada, Mexico, other Southeast Asian countries, so on
(24:46):
and so forth. And then you layer on the government
shut down, You layer on inflation data and interest rate
decisions from the f O, m C, so on and
so forths stressing me up is a beat of sweat
starting to come down for it. But even with that,
(25:07):
it's still been a year to where if if you
weren't emotional. If if you worked with people who you know,
focus on portfolio management and focus on you know, creating
the portfolios that are in line with your with your plan,
your goals and objectives, then you haven't had to really,
(25:30):
you know, worry about all of those things. But still,
you know, some of the things that that we worry
about from you know, a ten year treasury or an
interest rate, uh decision is whether or not we can
get you into you know, good bond rates and things
like that, or some of the structured notes that we like,
(25:51):
and you know, if if some of those might be being called.
And there's just so many things and still I'm looking
at this list and why don't you go through some
of them, because it's just it's it's not going to
slow down here at the end of the year, even
though at least we don't have, you know, another big
fed kind of decision. But once again, you want to
(26:17):
be really diving into your portfolio from from attax mitigation,
from a rebalancing and getting yourself set up for having
a good year next year. And all of these things
should be considered.
Speaker 3 (26:32):
Well and it has to align with your overall plan.
A lot of people. And we've talked about this several times.
Is people get carried away with some of the details
or diving into the weeds. We we kind of dove
into quite a bit of weeds so far in the show.
But you have to zoom out right for your own
personal picture, that's that, and focus on things that are
(26:53):
important to you and your family and and say, Okay,
what's the macro picture.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
What am I trying to achieve here?
Speaker 3 (27:00):
Whether it's retirement or or whatever financial goal that you
have out there, there's going to be a timeline on that.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
Right.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
If it's retirement, what does my retirement look like for
the next twenty twenty five thirty years, and what is
my money need to do for me for.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
That period of time.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
A lot of times people get carried away and be like, oh,
I'm going to jump into you know, this stock or
that stock because it's taking off, or it has something
to do with this technology or that new technology or
drones or so on and so forth, and you know,
I can make a hundred I can potentially make one
hundred percent. I missed out on the other one that
went up one hundred percent. You know, how can I great?
(27:37):
You know, if if you can add some of those
into your portfolio, great, But if you're just focusing on
all those little aspects all the time, you're you're going
to be moving around and there's really going to be
no method to the madness other than just trying to
chase performance. And then when you have volatility kick in
the markets, when you have some of these things that
we talked about of you know, terroriffts and AI and
(27:58):
disruptors in AI, or you know, profits aren't going to
be as fruitful as we thought in AI and all
the spending like Meta Medical was won right where they
came out and said, oh we had all the spending
and they went down eleven percent the very next day.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
Those sort of things.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Then that forces you to start making emotional decisions because like,
oh my gosh, maybe I was wrong, Maybe I don't Well,
you didn't need to go after that stock to go
after a fifty or one hundred percent turn in the
first place, right, and so you didn't need to take
that investment asset that has such a high volatility right
ride and put that into your portfolio. It's focusing on
(28:36):
the big picture, putting a plan around how do you
how do you successfully create longevity with your assets. You
could take a small portion of it and and go
after the gusto, but you don't want to take so
much and put too much emphasis more than it could
blow you up. Right where April and May this year
people were panicking if they had a heavy weighting in
(28:58):
certain stocks, all the stock market goes up. But it's
it's it's a tactful ride, and you want to be
choosy in your investments. Some of the things that are
hitting the market right now, like you know, we've already
talked about, is Michael Burry. He's if you hadn't seen
the Big Short movie, it's all about two thousand and eight,
and this guy made billions of dollars shorting, which which
basically just means putting investment bets out there. When things
(29:23):
go down in price, you make a touch, you make
money even though it's going down. He's he's making a bet.
And I said AI stocks and that that article came out.
But when you look at his positions, it's more on Palenteer.
Pallenteer is a big one that because as a pe
of two thirteen that's very very very high. And video
for example, has a pe or price to earnings of
(29:46):
thirty three, just to give you some concept. So, you know,
has he made his money and Piloeer shorting paleteer yet?
Is it still out there? I don't know. I mean
he's so far, probably did pretty good this week.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
Yeah this week, who knows. He may have been at
a loss if he started shorten it, you know, months ago,
because palunteers, you know, palunteers fifty two week low or
low just this year is in the fifties. Yeah, it's
closer to two hundred and so just depends on when
(30:20):
he started shorting the stock. And just so you understand
that shorting a stock basically means you borrow shares. You
don't own the shares. You've borrowed shares, and your debt
is those shares. It's not the dollars that those shares represent.
Your actual debt is those shares, and you want to
(30:41):
repay back those shares at a lower price than what
those shares were valued at when you bought them. That
is what shorting means. And so there's different ways to
short and hedge that have a different type of purpose,
but in essence, you're borrowing shares. So let me give
you a quick example, any stock doesn't matter, and the
(31:04):
current price is at ten bucks, and I think the
shares are going to go down to five bucks, so
I borrow a thousand shares. That's in essence, borrowing something
worth ten thousand dollars. Okay, I receive ten thousand dollars,
all right. Now I return those shares when it cost
(31:25):
me five thousand dollars because the stock price went down
to five dollars. So I return those shares at a
cost of five dollars a share, or five thousand dollars.
My net profit is five thousand dollars. So that is
how you make money shorting is you expect the share
price to go down. You borrow shares, hopefully at a
(31:46):
higher price than you return those shares at. That is
less than one oh one today shorting a stock.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
Yeah, and if you haven't done it, don't just go rush.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
Hot control my god, please, because very risky limits are unlimited.
So let's say now you short a stock. Let's use
that ten dollars. What did I say ten dollars stock? No? Well,
I thought, I said risk is oh, I said limited?
It's limited. And so let's say again, you decide to
short a ten dollars stock and you do one thousand shares.
(32:20):
What if that stock goes to one hundred, Now you
owe those shares back at one hundred thousand, and you
only received ten thousand. You just lost ninety thousand dollars.
And by the way, that's what drove you know, the
crash and made it worse. In any major market crash.
(32:42):
You know, short people and people who are short the
mark five feet under five feet people are short the market.
You know, got margin calls, got calls to cover cover
you know, their losses, and they didn't have it, so
then they declare bankruptcies. And so, you know, you had
(33:03):
a client, I'm sorry to take us out on a tangent,
but we had a client who was interested in some
leveraged shares. Leveraged funds are tend to have short bets
on the market, and short bets are great. You know
a lot of times or they've they've borrowed shares against
(33:25):
their position, which i e. Leverage, but also they have
so they've borrowed shares and they've borrowed them at again,
let's say it's ten dollars a share. Now those shares
have gone up, you know, drastically and they have to
repay those shares at a at a much higher price.
So use using leveraged funds, using things that have short
(33:50):
positions can be very dangerous, especially in a bull market.
Now if you're just parly on the on the on
the bowl side, where heck, I'm doubled down. You know, okay,
let's take I own these shares instead of I borrowed
these shares and then I borrow money to buy even
(34:12):
more shares, I e. The leverage and the and the
share price goes up, you know, ching ching win or
winter chicken dinner. But again, an you're leveraging, borrowing, shorting,
it just it amplifies your risk. And so from a
retirement perspective, I highly recommend I if you're retired and
(34:36):
you have your million, your two million, your five hundred thousand, investments,
don't get caught up and potentially you know success stories
and typically their stories on you know how great levered
investments can be or short shorting can be. It's a
(34:59):
far risk year to be a bear and making big
bear bets than it is to be a bull and
just riding out you know, uh market volatility right and
before and make a shameless pitch for people to call
us and come in and get on our calendar any more,
you know, current events or things that we should touch upon.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Yeah, some of the other concerns out there is some
of the data that's coming out from ADP and and
the Challenger report just showing that there's more layoffs happening.
Maybe some of it's tied to AI and just the
efficiency that that's creating. But that is, you know a
concern because obviously the Federal Reserve is focusing more on
(35:43):
the employment, the status of employment or for unemployment, and
that's why VERSUSPI or PPI or versus versus inflation, which
drove them to have these two rate cuts so far
this year. We'll see if they do another one in December,
and then you know, this.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
Actually might be the best best the Fed can be
because think about it, the data revise data and data
that almost is never you know, correct, because think about it,
c p I, p p I, PCEE, all these you know,
unemployment numbers, you know, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, what
(36:25):
I guess, being the main driver of some of this
dator U some of this data.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
Did you have one question though, did you have coffee
this morning.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
I did have a cup of a cup of coffee,
So but I can't say that I'm surprised and I
could tell, but the reality is they give all these
monthly numbers, quarterly numbers, and then they revise them a
month later a quarter said this might be. But that's
the data decision making that the FED does because they
(36:57):
don't rely on data that's just going to be and
wrong anyway. Who I yeah, I don't.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I still don't have complete faith because they're they're because
they're kind of late in the game.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
But yeah, well we'll see how Powell is. Why, Yeah,
he's been given that. Nick, Well, here's here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
I mean, you don't have to get you don't have
to be a rocket scientists, but look, you have all
these you have like one hundred some hds all economists,
so on and so forth. And then they admitted back
when inflation was going sky high and was CPI was
over nine percent right in twenty twenty two, and they
admitted they're wrong. Janet Yellen Rome Powell admitted that they
were wrong and it was transitory.
Speaker 2 (37:38):
So really it wasn't transitory.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Point that it was transitory, and they were wrong. What
I'm saying is they admitted that, oh no, it's not transitory.
We were wrong, and therefore we have to we have
to start raising.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
It was transitory, and it was, and the problem is
admitted it.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
Yeah, And the problem is is is it Is it
because it didn't have enough data, or is it because
the data wasn't correct, manipul or manipulated, or is it
the political right or is it a combination of all.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
But unfortunately, this is the data we have.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
Maybe at some point they REVAMPA to get more accurate information,
but so far the data that we have come in.
Right now, we don't have data. We still don't have
certain data because the government is still shut down. But
the data that we do have is suggesting that there's
more layoffs, so that emboldens the Federal Reserve and where
they're at and the decisions that they've made as far
as the two rate cuts that they've had. We'll see
(38:33):
how it continues to unfold for Decembers meeting and if
they do another quarter point rate cut. The low income households,
what the data is showing is rising credit auto student
loan delinquencies. On the other side of the spectrum, the wealthy,
the baby boomers and so on and so forth are
still spending. So that's still creating resiliency around their consumer spending.
(38:57):
And so you have this dichotomy here, right, or or
binary or division. Lower income is filling the pinch, especially
with the inflation that's that's had taken place in the
past few years. Things cost more money, right, and so
you're seeing credit card debt rising, delinquency is starting to
happen across different areas of loans. But on the other
(39:20):
side of the spectrum, you have stock market that's continued
that had a couple of great years, right, people making
You have some some areas of the industry where people
making more money than they've made before. And you have
the wealthy who have been invested in either real assets
or liquid assets like stocks and bonds and things like
that and have appreciated seeing their portfolio appreciate, and they're
(39:40):
continuing to spend.
Speaker 2 (39:41):
Yeah, so let's recap a little bit. So main strategies
that we've been discussing today are really take a deep
dive before making a decision or overreacting to earnings or
any of the news on tariffs or the shut down,
or on interest rate decisions, so on, so forth. Don't
(40:01):
just you know, buy more of a stock because the
price dipped here, it still might be overvalued even after dipping.
And then also if you do have a highly appreciated stock,
consider trimming some of that position. You don't have to
get out of all of it, especially if you have
a tax consequence. But consider you know, rebalancing right here
(40:27):
before the end of the year and focus on you
know what sort of tax impact it has. Now, if
these aren't things that you normally do for yourself and
you're not sure they're being done, let us help you.
We will do a free portfolio review. We'll try to
help you understand what sort of gains or tax consequences
(40:50):
you are will help you understand, you know, the level
of risk that you have in your portfolio. And maybe
you don't need that sort of risk to get the
type cash that's aligned. Yeah, to get the type of
cash flow or income out of your investments. Maybe you
can take less risk because you don't have good quality
(41:13):
hide pain dividend positions like certain stocks or ETFs or alternatives.
Maybe you're not you know, you've been just writing money
market interest rates down on your cash and there's still
great bond rates out there, there's great note rates out there.
All of these things we will be happy to share
(41:33):
with you with absolutely no obligation. By giving us a
call at nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred,
get on our calendar. We can meet via zoom. We'd
love to meet you in our office. If you're in
the Bay area. We have a convenient location there for you,
(41:53):
in Walnut Creek and in Conquered Also, if you're in
the Haho Reno areas, we can meet there. We love
meeting people face to face versus over the internet, which
I believe is a dying thing, and I'm so happy
that we still do that. You know, the webin o,
(42:15):
the zoom in you know, no, no, no, no, no,
just that you know, we're all about face to face
and we will come to a convenience. We still do.
We still do zoom and what happens. Aren't comfortable with
that and want that, but we don't. We don't mind
at all meeting face to face. So we prefer that.
We're old school, we you know, we we prefer meeting
(42:35):
face to face. Again, to get on our calendar for
an hour or two for that no obligation consultation called
nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Well,
I hope you enjoyed listening to the wise money guys.
John's gambraye to Seppie Piscani, have a wonderful weekend and
come back and give us a listen again next weekend. Bye.
All weekend
Speaker 3 (43:00):
Really does
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Ruthie's Table 4
For more than 30 years The River Cafe in London, has been the home-from-home of artists, architects, designers, actors, collectors, writers, activists, and politicians. Michael Caine, Glenn Close, JJ Abrams, Steve McQueen, Victoria and David Beckham, and Lily Allen, are just some of the people who love to call The River Cafe home. On River Cafe Table 4, Rogers sits down with her customers—who have become friends—to talk about food memories. Table 4 explores how food impacts every aspect of our lives. “Foods is politics, food is cultural, food is how you express love, food is about your heritage, it defines who you and who you want to be,” says Rogers. Each week, Rogers invites her guest to reminisce about family suppers and first dates, what they cook, how they eat when performing, the restaurants they choose, and what food they seek when they need comfort. And to punctuate each episode of Table 4, guests such as Ralph Fiennes, Emily Blunt, and Alfonso Cuarón, read their favourite recipe from one of the best-selling River Cafe cookbooks. Table 4 itself, is situated near The River Cafe’s open kitchen, close to the bright pink wood-fired oven and next to the glossy yellow pass, where Ruthie oversees the restaurant. You are invited to take a seat at this intimate table and join the conversation. For more information, recipes, and ingredients, go to https://shoptherivercafe.co.uk/ Web: https://rivercafe.co.uk/ Instagram: www.instagram.com/therivercafelondon/ Facebook: https://en-gb.facebook.com/therivercafelondon/ For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iheartradio app, apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.