How to win elections & influence things

We make the big calls two days from E-Day. What are the scenarios that could lead to forming a government, a last look at the polls & debates, & our highs and lows from the campaign

By Tim Watkin

So it all comes down to this: It's close. While the lack of polls this election means it's hard to pick trends, it looks clear that Labour's Adern-tastic August has hit a September slump. Momentum has stalled. It may have even swung behind National, but on the available data it's impossible to say. Thus, all we can say is that it's close.

That doesn't stop RNZ's own Caucus from taking a hard look at the wide range of scenarios that could yet turn into a government next week. We're no shirkers. and while I say that somewhat flippantly, it actually matters. As we've discussed on previous podcasts, to avoid a disillusioned electorate in a few days time, it's important for the public to understand how their votes might turn into a government.

The possible outcomes are many. Looking at the polls as we know them (including RNZ's Poll of Polls) we could have anything from National effectively governing alone, with ACT and perhaps the Maori Party, as they do now. At the other extreme, we could have a Labour-Greens-Maori Party coalition. Either outcome - and more in-between - are only a few percent apart and within the margins of error.

National at 45 percent or more would almost certainly get to govern; we can assume that even if, after wasted vote is take out of the mix, it didn't need support, it would still join with a party or two. But which ones? ACT, is tied to National. But could the Maori Party stomach a fourth term propping up a National-led government, given so many of its supporters give their other vote to Labour? Te Ururoa Flavell suggests it's possible, while Marama Fox has sent quite different signals.

Back in the early 40s, it gets harder for National, because it doesn't have a loyal friend like the Greens to give it a boost. National at that level would likely depend on New Zealand First, as Winston Peters (despite probing) is giving nothing away in whether he's more likely to prefer Labour or National's direction for the country.

Labour will be hoping its final number "starts with a 4", as some of its leaders have hoped for in the past few terms. If it does, then there's a chance of the Greens and Maori Party being able to get it up to the magic number of 61 seats in parliament. That's a majority in a 121-seat parliament…

Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details