December 17, 2025 • 41 mins
Nate and Maria give out their second annual awards for decision-making in 2025: Who made the best decision this year? Who made the worst? Who were 2025’s biggest nits and degens? And which host had the best poker year?
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making
better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
And I'm Nate Silver. Now today in the show, it
is the annual edition of the Riskies.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Use.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
There are awards for the best and worst decisions of
the year from kind of a gambling slash game, theory, lens,
a little bit of poker, a little bit of sports,
a little bit of politics, just the usual Nate Emeria tactics. Marie,
are you are you excited?
Speaker 1 (00:55):
I am excited, Nate. I love handing out awards, especially
for bad decision making. And there have been a lot
of bad decisions this year.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
A record number. I mean, it's a world accelerates. Were
the more than bad decisions last year? I don't know,
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
We've we've had some pretty bad decision years. But yeah,
let's let's get into the risk case and we can
we can maybe our listeners can compare to last year
to see which year was worse.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Yeah, no, I mean, we have we have a new president.
It feels like Trump's the president forever, right, But like
when the year began, Joseph Robinette Biden was president.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Then why is it so funny. Speaking of humor, why
is it so funny when you say his middle name?
Speaker 2 (01:39):
I don't know, Robinette. What the fuck is that you know?
Is that some Delaware? Are we sure Delaware is real?
Have you ever been to Delaware?
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Are you sure birds are real? Name?
Speaker 2 (01:51):
I'm birds more than Delaware, probably probably oh point three
percent of our listeners are in Delaware. We don't mean
to insult you. We know it's a beautiful I've been.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
To Delaware on the train. Usually, pass.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
On a train doesn't count. You have to like, uh, sleep,
eat or pee somewhere birth to count. That is having
visited estate.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Wait wait, wait, wait, hold on. Peeing in a state
counts as visiting. So like if I get off the
highway and use the rest area, it counts as having visited.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Correct, fascinating.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Those are the rules.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Okay, okay, those are the rules.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Those are the rules. Fine, excellent. I don't know if
I've ever been to Delaware. I passed through on a train.
I've probably peed on the train in Delaware.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
No, No, the train. You have to leave the security perimeter, Maria, Like,
it's a little bit if you go outside and like
take like a stretch break or or a smoke break
or a bathroom break at the station in Wilmington. I
think that counts, but like I don't. You have to
leave the actual train, all right.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
So let's get on with the year in the rear
view mirror and the Risky Awards. So our first ward
goes to the hero call of the Year, which is
a decision that looked crazy at the time but turned
out to be absolutely brilliant. And I felt myself coming
up short. I was like, there were a lot of
shit decisions and decisions that looked bad at the time
and ended up being bad. What's something that you think
(03:24):
is something that looked crazy and turned out to be
absolutely brilliant.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
I guess Zoron Mumdanni choosing to run for mayor, and you,
I mean, it didn't seem crazy.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
It didn't seem crazy. That's the thing.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
I thought, what you going to do?
Speaker 1 (03:36):
I had Mom Donnie with a question mark because like
Mum Donnie fits into it. We definitely need to give
Zoron Mum Donnie an award for the risk case. But
maybe it is hero call of the year. Maybe the
people who supported Zoron very early on are the hero
call of the year.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
I mean, I guess all the people who sucked up
to Trump and then got pardoned. You gotta, you know,
give credit whords to George Sentos for example. I don't know,
but I guess it didn't seem crazy.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
It it does seem crazy. So, yeah, hero call like
something where you're you know, it's it's a hero call
for poker players out there. You know what a hero
call is. It's not you're holding aces and you end
up calling top set. It's you know, you're calling with
ace high on a you know, on an incredibly wet board.
Seems crazy, but it turns out to be brilliant. Or
(04:25):
you're calling with jack hi or ten high because you
think that the person has a busted straight draw and
has five high and uh, yeah, that's the hero call
of the year. Well we'll put mom Donnie there kind
of in yeah with a question mark, because I think
that at the beginning of the campaign, when he did
(04:46):
decide to run, like, the odds really did not look
good for him. Nate, do you happen to remember what
the prediction markets and just what the polls were saying.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I'm sure you start. I'm sure he was at one
percent or whatever.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Yeah, right, he was like a incredible underdog right at
the beginning. Yeah, all right, well let's try number two.
The worst fold, the decision that left everyone wondering why
walk away from such a sure thing?
Speaker 2 (05:16):
I mean, quite obviously if you're a sports fan. The
Luca Dontch trade was this year, and it was still
the most inexplicable trade in sports history. Lucas averaging thirty
five points a game, nine rebounds, nine assists this year,
shooting forty seven percent on field goals, Dallas trade him
for the perpetually injured Anthony Davis. They did back into
(05:39):
getting number one overall pick Cooper Fly due to a
stroke of luck. Nevertheless, general manager Nico Harrison was recently
fired from the team. Yeah, this was like the still
the weirdest trade in sports history. I was at this
random little poker tournament in Maryland quite late. My phone
was dead. When it scrolled across the ESPN bottom line,
(06:00):
I like literally thought I was having like a stroke
or hallucinating. I'm like, why the fuck would you trade
Luca for Anthony Davis? But it was real. I mean,
it has to be like the winner here.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Yeah, that's I mean, I think that for sports fans,
that's definitely the winner. And I actually remember doing this
podcast episode with you and reading about this, and as
a non sports fan, I was like, wait, what in
the world is going on? This is very weird. So
I had a different one for worst fold. I had
the Democrats in the government shutdown folding and deciding to
(06:36):
avoid that. I had that as the worst fold of
the year for the decision that left everyone wondering, what
the fuck did you just do? Why did we why
were we even in this pot right?
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Like?
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Why did we play this hand to the river? If
you're going to fold, like, what were you thinking you do?
Speaker 2 (06:52):
The next one is cooler of the year. Cooler if
you're not familiar, is when when you have a very
good hand, your opponent has an even better hand and
there's that much you can do to avoid it. So
you have packet kings. I have King to Maria as
pocket aces.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
So for this one, and this one is a little
bit controversial, but I would put Sam Altman and open Ai,
who was leading up until very recently, kind of in
all indicators, and then I've realized there's somewhat of our
recency bias here, But you know, absolute great hand has
(07:30):
been like all the best researchers market edge and seems
to have somehow fallen behind by sticking to kind of
their you know, their approach and potentially putting a little
bit too much weight on how do we generate money
right away with things like Sora et cetera, like basically
(07:53):
creating slop as opposed to trying to refine models and
seeing you know, Gemini Claude leapfrog over them in a
lot of different metrics. So I think that there was
no reason that had to have happened, because I think
that open Ai had the biggest resources out of any company. So,
like I said, maybe this is maybe you don't agree
(08:13):
with that, but for me, like it seems like they
had a great hand, but it's right now. They'll probably
not They're not going to lose in the long term,
but right now it seems like they're on the back foot.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Yeah. I mean this is a slightly different spirit of
cooler in which it's kind of like maybe misplaying a
very robust situation, right, Yeah, I know. I think the
smartest people who are observers of AI say that, like
open Ai has probably lost its lead in the large
language model category squandered.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
It's lead.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
Like the euation is also going up by three acts
or five x or something over the course of the year.
I'm sure Sam Altman is still sleeping well at night.
But yeah, I mean, you know who well, I mean,
if you want another sports one, Notre Dame missing the
college football playoff because they think they're special and refuse
to join a conference. That's maybe a little esoteric Maria,
(09:04):
but like, but they're they're privileged, a privileged bunch of
kids who who you know, think they're special and couldn't
get in line and join a conference and play a
real schedule. But that's that's you know, not a hearing
nor there.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
All right, Well, there we have it, so tilt of
the year, so kind of what's the most emotional decision
of the year. I've got I've got lots for this one.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
I mean, it feels like we have to mention Elon
Muskets some point had a fantastic year and you know,
kind of crashing and burning out of Doge even faster
than I thought, and I thought it wouldn't last particularly long. Yeah,
I think I think, you know, I think Elon's got
(09:49):
to be up there. What do you think.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
We're I was going to give it to RFK, who
has emotionally, you know, been so I mean, he's doing
quite well, He's accomplished everything. But I think that he
is one of the most emotional people that we have seen,
and his crusade against vaccine, against science in general, against
(10:12):
NIH funding, against all of that, seems to be very
emotionally driven, someone who cannot be convinced by any data
and just has this personal vendetta and feels like everything
is personal about him, right, Like everything that he says
he makes it feel like, oh, people are out to
get me personally, and I am the scapegoat and I
am going to prove them all wrong. So it seems
(10:34):
to me like he's the tiltiest person like I would actually,
you know, I would bet that playing against him at
the poker table would be an interesting experience. I think
he's someone who would let he would take everything personally
and really let the losses go to go to his head.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Do you think that Trump would be good at poker? Now?
Speaker 1 (10:54):
I don't. We've talked about this before. I think that
Trump's over confidence and overblown ego would keep him from
being good at poker, right, he doesn't take negative feedback,
he would think that he's a lot better than he
actually is, which is actually idea, like, those are the
best people to play poker against, the ones who have
an overblown sense of their own skills, right, because they're
(11:15):
not going to be taking negative criticism, negative feedback, and
they're not going to be learning as much, and they're
going to be the ones who are blaming the cards,
blaming the deck, you know, blaming everything except their own play.
And you want that, right, you want someone who is
incapable of learning from those types of things. Now, he
would be someone who I think would be very successful
(11:36):
against knits in the short term because he'd be super aggressive, right,
he'd be someone who would kind of fight for every pot,
who would bet big, who would like have all this
bluster and confidence. And if you don't see through that,
I think that aggression pays off in the immediate term,
but in the long term, if you then don't adjust
and keep that up and you're playing against good players
(11:58):
who do adjust to you, you're going to go broke.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Yeah, and poker the better failure mode is aggression, you
know what I mean? Yeah, you induce mistakes and different
types of mistakes from your opponents. And you know, I
think it'd be better than better than Biden. Better than Biden.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Yeah, I mean that's not saying much, but yeah, he
probably would be better than all right, So let's let's
go to another good decision. Ish, it doesn't have to
be good. Actually, it's the GTO call of the year,
so game theory optimalist call. So the most balanced sound
(12:35):
decision of the year. What do we got for balanced?
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Well, especially in the NFL in general strategy on fourth
downs for examples, becoming much more gt O. But i'll
do a politician when here give it to Gavin Newsome.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
Oh yeah, yeah, that's a good one.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Not my favorite, not my favorite personality. However, he did
understand that if Republicans were willing to engage in mid
decade redistricting in states like Texas, that California should reciprocate.
It's kind of straight out of like the Prisoner's Alemma.
And you think aggressive gerrymandering is bad, even think the
GUP started, You know, you have to respond, and so
(13:18):
Newsoen did that aggressively and effectively, and so he wins
this award in my.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Opinion, Yeah, I think I think that that that's actually
a very good, very good pick on your side, Nate.
And it's a breath of fresh air to see someone
actually make a good political decision. Right, We've had so
many shitty political decisions this year, and on both sides
of the aisle, right, like so many people just doing
things where you're like, what in the world are you
even thinking? And he did. He did see that opportunity
(13:46):
and he executed it well. He also was able to
get the support he needed to pass the measures that
he needed. He was able to even people who don't
like him, you know, had to smile at his social
media kind of his social media team was good at
mimicking Trump and kind of you know, making making him
at least for a moment when that social media war.
(14:10):
So people I think.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Yeah, I'm not I'm not sure gonna gi him too
much credit for that part. But but but he has
getting ground, and he has getting ground in like prediction
markets for the nomination race and polls and so you know, look,
I mean a lot of it is cringe. Unfortunately, cringe
sometimes works. Cringe. There's a big audience for and you know,
(14:32):
especially for like older MSNBC watching Democrat. They love the
fucking Cringe. They love Cringe, and Gavin Newsom is cringe.
His Twitter account is cringe, and Cringe is winning.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
We'll be back right after this.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Uh okay. Next, the Danny Kanaman Memorial Cognitive Bias of
the Year Award, Cognitive Bias Best explains twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
I am going to say, uh a mix of I mean,
these are very related of recency bias with historic amnesia
and general like alliteracy about how things have played out
in history, where all of the decisions seem to be
focused on such short term thinking, right, just using like
(15:37):
who who are we? Like, who am I beating right now?
Who am I trying to get one over on? Right now?
Who am I trying to beat today without kind of
this consideration of weight, Like, there's a lot of history
here and this is not just the present moment. There
are you know there there are data points that are
(16:00):
going to kind of be helpful to me that happened
way in the past, and I have to be thinking
into the future as well, you know, things like you
know tariffs, right, It just seems to just have a
certain historical amnesia where you know, how did this kind
of thing play out in the past, but in general,
(16:20):
just all the decisions seem to be very shortsighted and
very in the moment focused, without without grounding in how
does this actually look? What are the implications? What can
I take from historical lessons so that this decision is
actually good for the future and not just for the
(16:43):
present moment.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Yeah, Look, it's pretty classic for new presidents to come
in to the Oval Office and overread their men. Date
Trump being so insistent on tariffs, I mean, even if
they haven't had quite as much of a negative impact
as some economists might have predicted. You know, consumers have
(17:06):
been very gloomy about the economy for ever since Liberation
Day quote unquote back in April. You know, without this
investment in AI, it's not clear the economy will be
growing very much at all. And Trump just won an
election on inflation. Now one calls it affordability. You know what,
(17:26):
call it fucking if I've already had this rant on
the show before. You know, affordability feels too fucking euphemistic
to me. Call it see a little too highbrow. Call
it fucking inflation. You win an election on inflation, and
then you pass a bunch of terror policies that cause
higher inflation. It seems like some type of some type
of cognitive bias or deserves to be somewhere in the
in the negative category of these awards.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Yeah. Absolutely absolutely, So let's uh, let's go on to
our Djen of the Year, which we as of last
year renamed the Epei Masuhara Award for Djen of the Year.
We don't have anyone quite on that level, but there
were a lot of contenders for this one.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
I mean, what about Chauncey Billups, the former head coach
of the Portland Trail Blazer.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Oh had Chauncey, I had Terry Rosier, I had all
all the.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Yeah, we have.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
I mean we had the indictments, the NBA indictments, So
you can you can take any of those athletes, coaches,
like people who were making lots of money and who
made very very questionable decisions that have jeopardized their.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
I think I'm gonna I'm gonna get with Chauncey. He's
the most prominent of these figures, right. He is an
NBA Hall of Famer, I believe, otherwise known as co
Conspiratory Number eight. I believe or I forget which number
he was, I'm gonna give I'm gonna give Chauncey the award.
Speaker 1 (18:44):
Okay, that's that makes sense. So I initially gave it
to Chauncey, and then I thought maybe Terry because Terry
actually threw games as well, so as far as we know,
allegedly allegedly through games by letting people bet on like
different outcomes and then you know, sitting out and uh
fading injury, et cetera, et cetera. So depending on Yeah,
(19:07):
but Chauncey Billups is obviously more prominent.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
So yeah, does Michael ms Rahey is her consideration.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Here for Djen of the Year? Yeah, sure, why not?
I mean, Michael Misrahi is quite a djen. He won
the World Series main Event, he won the Players Championship,
so Djen of the Year could be a good thing.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
There are rumors that he was like out quite late
at various clubs and anyway, but I think I think
Chauncey earned this. But in a weaker year that we'd
have to consider Michael ms Rahi.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
That's that's that's fair. We we had a very robust
slate of nominees this year. It's like the Oscars when
you know, the best Picture nominees come out and you're
like shit, like, how do I choose?
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Right?
Speaker 1 (19:49):
This year, the Dejen of the Year slate was really full.
We're sorry everyone who didn't get it better? Like next year,
how about the Knit of the Year? Nate? Who do
you think was the nidias this year?
Speaker 2 (20:01):
Who is a guy who falled as king at the
final table? Is that Kenny Hallard is supposed to be
a great guy, right, but it you couldn't give it
to You could give it to Chuck Schumer for folding
on the shutdown. Here's an obscure one, which I find
kind of funny. Right, So, Brad Lander was the New
York City compatroller is by some measures, was the most
(20:25):
broadly liked candy in the New York mayor race, and
he he basically endorsed Zoran and helped clinch Zoran finishing
in first place in the in the primary right because
he thought he was going to get I mean, I'm
sure he hates Cuomo, which understandable, but he thought he
was going to get like the deputy mayor's job. And
(20:46):
Zora was like, nope, sorry, bro, you know I'll endorse
your campaign for Congress. But like, so that was a
case where like you make a sacrifice and wind up
getting getting nothing for it, right, I mean, he got
lots of kudos on Twitter from Democrats who don't like Cuomo,
but like that comes to mind a little bit.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
Yeah, that's that's an interesting one. Yeah, I was I
was going to go with someone like Schumer in line
with my Democratic shutdown as the worst fold of the year,
because nance you know, that's the thing. If you're in it,
you're gonna end up making nitty folds that you should
not be making. Right, Like, those two things go hand
in hand. One of the worst things about being in
(21:25):
it is that you fold hands that you really should
be calling and you don't put yourself Sure, you can
protect your chips, but you also don't put yourself in
a position to win. Right. That kind of strategy ends
up putting you on the back foot repeatedly. And I
think that that's kind of what happened here.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Did you make any bad folds this here, Maria, I
don't know.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
I well, no, no, in the sense that I wasn't shown.
I think I'm sure that I made some very bad folds.
But in order to know whether you made a bad fold.
The person has to then show you what they had right,
And if you aren't sure if they were bluffing or not,
then you don't know if it was a bad fold.
(22:09):
I'm guessing that I made some really bad folds this year,
Like if I were betting on it, I would say,
like over ninety percent certain that I've made some really
bad folds. But I can't. I didn't have any of
those situations where someone then showed me in their hand.
I had situations where they then told me what they had,
but I don't trust that because I don't trust poker
players to actually tell me the truth about what they had.
(22:31):
In a lot of situations poker players life.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
I had one in a home tournament where like this
woman was quite bad at poker, and I had like
it was a board with like three of a kind
on the board. It was like, you know, seven seven seven,
nine king or something right, And I had like a
pair of nine full house right, and she battle a
(22:59):
lot with a pair of sixes right, so underpair to
the board a weaker full house and I had and
I just thought, well, okay, is a really tight player.
But like she didn't actually know, she didn't realize that
like having a full house was not actually a great
hand on that board because there's so many better full
houses or quads. So I folded because I gave her
(23:21):
too much credit. Basically, that's funny.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
There's a you know, the one of the pivotal poker
scenes in Molly's Game. You've seen the movie, yes, So
there's there's a scene where a good player makes a
huge fold because he doesn't realize that he's playing against
a bad player. He didn't realize I think that Brad
was bad and then it ends up and then he'd
(23:44):
buy mistake flashes one of the cards and he realizes
that he made a bad fold and it puts him
on megatilt and he hands up losing tons and tons
of money. That is sometimes one of the worst things
that you can do, which is actually an interesting consideration
for this award. When you aren't capable, when you give
other people too much credit, sometimes you can you can
(24:06):
be nittier than you should be. And so that's why
you know, for good decision making, you really need to
be accurate in your evaluations, not only of yourself but
of other people. And that can be really difficult. In
the absence of data, right, Like, if you don't have
enough data points, how do you make those determinations? And
obviously some of it comes from experience, but then you
(24:28):
fill in the blanks with biases, with you know what
you're kind of you try to fill in the blanks
as best you can. Sometimes you write, and sometimes you're
just absolutely wrong. And sometimes Nate, have you, I mean,
I'm sure you've been in this situation, both in poker
and non in poker, I've had situations where I have
folded huge hands, both literal and metaphorical, because I've read
(24:52):
the other person as being incredibly strong, and I was
right in that they thought they were incredibly strong, but
they actually weren't, so the read was correct, but they
didn't realize where they were relative to me in that situation.
And so that's something.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
To where just a narrow piece of actual booker advice
for listeners, right, because Marie and I both have this
experience of playing an extremely wide range of game textures,
from the toughest opponents in the world and high rollers
to the worship you've ever seen play poker and like
charity events, right, And when you get in that really
bad section of the pool. Then you have to give
(25:32):
some consideration to your absolute hand strength, right like that,
Yeah I have a flush. There may be better flushes
and full houses on the board. But like, but the
fact is, disapponent might think top pair is good hand.
They don't know how to read the relative strength of
hands and so you know, so yeah, don't don't fold
good hands for cheap against bad opponents who you don't
(25:56):
have that firm a read on. Yeah right, we really
and we really stereotype bad players based on you know,
one or two pieces of information. And yeah, it's just
a matter of hedging a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (26:07):
Absolutely absolutely staying on the poker. Uh. Note Risky Business bracelet,
which host was the better poker player this year? I
have no idea in Nate, I don't actually.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Well, you won a tournament. Yeah, I think it has
to be you, right right, I had been, i'd have
been a World series.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
You had a better World Series than I did.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
I think winning a tournament that Maria.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
Well, I appreciate that night. But but risky business listeners,
the year is not yet over. We still have a
few weeks to go. I am in Vegas playing the
World Poker Tour. Win Championships, and Nate is heading to
the Bahamas to play in the double Tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
I'll be in the Bahamas playing, uh, playing this twenty
five K, sixty million guaranteed tournament. And it sure is
gonna be nice, Maria. When I win that tournament, it's
gonna and that will and that will.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
Actually I'm gonna have to give my Risky Business bracelet
to you, Nate. I'm gonna have to give it back
unless unless I win the ten thousand dollars made event
here at the win, in which case we can just
agree just to let the bracelet.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
No, I think, I think I think the paradise would
still it would still away there. It's a sixty million
guaranteed price. Bool.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
I understand, Nate. But I've already won a tournament this year,
so I'm just I'm just saying.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
Okay, okay, okay, Marie, that will be.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
That will be putting me into two wins. But well,
just but but when you win.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Forward to that problem where we've both won these I know, amazing.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
Bracelets, it's gonna be it's gonna be a great problem
to have. We're going to have to cut the Risky
Business bracelet in half. I think in that situation and
share it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna take it
for myself because you you will be worthy of having
the bracelet as well. Or maybe we get a second one.
Maybe we uh, you know, go all out on the
budget and get two bracelets.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
I'm look, I'm looking. I'm looking forward to my new
vacation home and asking them and to buy with this with.
Speaker 1 (28:09):
This's been interesting. Are you Are you a skier?
Speaker 2 (28:13):
No skiing seems like a terrible idea. I'm not. I'm
not a knit It just seems like don't people get
injured all the time when they're skiing.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
They do?
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Yes, Yeah, that seems crazy, Like it's just like and
when you talk to you, he's like, oh, yeah, I
broke my broke my colorone one. You know, It's like
it just seems like a very very very very high
rate of injury.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Yes, my family is a family of skiers. And I
started skiing when I was I think, oh, five years old,
And I don't really ski much anymore because you know,
I don't live near a mountain, and at some point,
like after college, I just kind of stopped skiing. Everyone
else in my family continues skiing. I am the only
(28:54):
person in my family who has not gotten the serious
injury from skiing. Yeah, because I stopped everyone else broken bones,
torn acls, concussions, and other traumatic head injuries. Like, you
don't have to be a knit to be afraid of
injuring yourself.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
And we'll be right back after this break. All right.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
We've got two awards from the podcast The Town About
Hollywood that we awarded last year as well. So those
two are the Mia Coolpa I Was Wrong Award and
the second Haters I Was Right Award. So what do
you have for those? Is there anything that you think
you were wrong about or you were right about?
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Well, you know, I keep track of my sports bets.
There's lots of individual things that I was wrong about,
certainly on the sports side. You know. I'm thinking back
on columns. I mean, I read a column earlier in
the year about like how the market, like the stock market,
wouldn't tame Trump or curb his excesses. I think that
is more wrong than right, because it seems to he
(30:15):
seems to be upset when like the arrows go down
in the stock market quite a bit. I don't know,
I mean, there weren't very many elections this year, which
produces and oppeticially me to be obnoxiously wrong about things.
I was almost wrong on the shut town. I thought
that like this kind of pretense of like shutting the
government down for for healthcare was not a very good plan,
(30:38):
right and then and but then lo and behold, after
a couple of weeks, Trump was threatening people's food stamps,
said he was becoming much less popular. I'm like, oh boy,
I'm I have to eat some curl on this one.
And that's fucking cave. So I guess I was. I
guess I was right, you know, I you know, for
the other second haters category, Like there were two or
three books about what a shitty condition that Biden was him,
(31:00):
which was a point of emphasis for me last year.
Of course, you know, I don't think Kamala Harris comes
across very well on her memoir of the campaign trial either.
So like the fact these people were fucking idiots, uh
you know, I don't mean Harris, but like I mean
the people surrounding Biden and Harris like that that felt
very validated this year. I guess.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
Yeah. So for I'm going to say for the Mia Colpa,
I was wrong Award. I think at the beginning of
the year, I was under selling some of the promises
of AI in a lot of areas, and I think
that it has gotten so much better this past year. Like, sure,
it's still hallucinates and like that that's funny.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
I'm kind of.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Well, it's because of right, But you and I started
the year on very different Like you were so much
more bullish and I was so much more bearish. So
I think we've probably like we're probably at the same
point now, Nate. But for me it's an I was
wrong and for you it was you know, it's one
of these things where we've both recalibrated with the new
data and I was like, Okay, you know in some
(32:04):
of these areas there's a lot of promise that I
didn't really realize. And you, on the other hand, were
so optimistic that now you're like, oh, there's You've had
to calibrate it down, which is kind of funny. So
I think I think we've met in the middle. The
second haters I was right, Award. I'm going to say
that the attack on higher education that was orchestrated by
(32:28):
you know, Trump and his cronies, a lot of people
were like, yeah, you know, fuck Harvard, blah blah blah.
But I think that I were already seeing with the
cuts and funding and the kind of drain in students
and all of this, that this is going to really
really hurt the United States for many, many years to come.
(32:49):
So I think I was right, what have it.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
You might have to use down? Yeah, they are using
it good. Good, No, like it is bad. But like
all the things Trump has done, I think higher education,
elite higher education. I'm a big fan of state schools. Right,
there's some schools like my I'm a minor university to
set up more for a free speech. Yeah, I'm I agree,
(33:14):
it's objectively bad. I'm not very sympathetic.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Yeah, but I think that you know, curbing cancer research
and all the things that these schools spread do it
is really bad.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
By the way, we have not because this did happen
in twenty twenty five, right, all these Republicans who confirmed
RFK Junior and Pete Hegseth, right, like, I mean.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
You know, yeah, talk about some fucking have some fucking spine, right, Like,
those are very very powerful positions that will have you know,
impacts for years to come.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
And so they deserve maybe Need of the Year. Right,
if I had brad Lander in there for an obscure endorsement,
I rescind that award brad Lander, and I give it
to congressional or Senate Republicans who confirmed. And it's fine.
You're going to have some partisan, very conservative nominees, right,
but p exth that r FFK Junior, maybe Tulsa Gabbard,
(34:09):
you know those three man up show some spine and voting.
A guess these people that are are are not qualified for.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
Their yes, absolutely absolutely all right. So now we've got
two awards that only one of us gives. So we're
going to have the Nate Silver Award for Riverian of
the Year. So, Nate, who are you going to award
the Riverian of the Year.
Speaker 2 (34:33):
I think since we haven't fitted in elsewhere here, we
should probably give it to Michael ms Rahi, Right, winning
both the main event and the Poker Players Championship in
the same year. You know, it is this kind of
once in a century type of accomplishment. You know, he
probably tilts more toward the Djon side of things than
(34:56):
maybe the pure Riverian side, but like it's a big
ac contiument in the Poker World, and we often talk
negatively about poker on the show. It makes a lot
of negative headlines, right, but that that was a positive
for the game. He's a very popular player.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
Congratulations mister Msrachi, Congratulations mister Grinder.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
And the Maria kind of Cove Award for the biggest
bluff of the year.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
I am going to go ahead and hand that to
the subject of one of our recent Risky Business episodes,
Olivia NUTSI for convincing people over and over that she's
a really good writer and a good journalist and getting
hired over and over despite ethical lapses and frankly, really
(35:42):
bad writing when she doesn't have a good editor, as
we discovered in American Canto, and I, you know, she
It's one of these things where I wanted to give
her a lot of the awards because like you would
think that, like if she could actually write well or
took the time to write well, like then you know,
it would be a totally different thing. But I think
(36:04):
that she has bluffed her way, using a lot of
different attributes to a point where people assumed she was
a brilliant writer, and the evidence points to the contrary.
And it seems like as other people have pointed out
the real heroes of the story are her editors at
New York Magazine, who made her writing seem very very good.
So I'm giving her the biggest bluff.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Of the year. Her ex fiancee Ryan Liza isn't looking much.
Speaker 1 (36:29):
No, he is a no no, but you.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Know it's part five of his opus, right, and he's like,
I came to New York for twenty four hours trying
resolve situation, and I wound up in this hotel with
her for five days. It's like brow that you did
she forcibly forcibly abduct you?
Speaker 1 (36:46):
Right?
Speaker 2 (36:47):
And like ill anyway, that whole thing, that whole nexus
of events. I you know, yeah, And of course RFK
isn't messed up in this. I don't know. I don't know, Maria, yep, I.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
Totally agree with you. I don't know is the correct answer. Anyway,
Congratulations Olivia, You're getting biggest bluff of the year. So
I don't I don't know because I don't really make
bets myself. What do you think do you have most
plus ev bet and most negative ev bet of the
year where you just couldn't help yourself.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
Uh, I'm trying to think, you know, in terms of again,
it's not an election year, so you're kind of not
making as many bets. I think, uh, you know, look,
my Nvidio stock has done well. I mean actually, okay,
so one thing I did is that, like I don't
know that man angel stocks by my own some when
(37:38):
I was booking my reservations for Vegas for the Worldsare's
Poker and realize kind of how much cheaper the hotel
rooms were. I sold some gaming company stocks. As a
result of that, I'm like this super viarius for the industry,
and that's trade's gone well. So I'm going to give
(37:58):
myself credit for that, and like worst bet of the year.
I mean, my NFL model really hates the Chicago Bears,
who are now nine and four, right, so the Bears
of have I think they're bad, but the Bears have
cost me a lot of money.
Speaker 1 (38:13):
You're still bearish on the Bears, but you have lost
a life.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
If I'm like just exhausted at the end of a
booker tournament, you know, I'll kind of like kind of
do a little mini punt like I was playing. It
was randomly in Florida to give a conference and like
played this five K tournament the last day of their
WT festival, right was waiting for cashame table opening them
after I busted out of the five k and played
(38:36):
a three hundred dollars tournament, right like a bounty tournament.
I'm like, I really do not feel like like being
here knitting it up with five big lines when the
first place is only a couple thousand bucks, right, and
I'm not gonna win any bounties. And so I know
I overcalled with ten or jack nine of diamonds versus
(38:57):
three other players, so I could have gotten a bounty
from one of them, and I'm like, I have four
big one. Actually, it's probably fine, It's probably all fine, Yeah,
but I just want to get out of here. I
want to go. I haven't eaten been there.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
Yeah, We've all been there. When you get tired at
the end of a long day, like, decision making quality
definitely deteriorates, and it takes real mental discipline to like
stay focused and stay you know, stay with it up
until the end, and self knowledge to understand when you're
making suboptimal decisions because of that, because of that kind
(39:34):
of end of day, Like, I've definitely had situations where
I've been like, you know what, I just want to
go to dinner, Like I don't have that many chips,
and like dinner break is in an hour, but like
I just want to either spin it or bust so
that I have a longer dinner. Right, Like I've definitely,
I've definitely done stuff like that, And I know it's
not good. Right, That's a horrible, horrible decision. That is
(39:56):
not how you're supposed to be making decisions. That is
not how you play poker. But that happens in real
life too, when sometimes you just like do a fuck
it decision because you're tired.
Speaker 2 (40:08):
Hang, grey is really bad. I figured it out, right,
don't try to agree.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
This very bad. Well, that concludes our riskies for the year.
Congratulations to all of our winners, and our condolences to
some of our winners, and we will we will maintain
that even though for now, for now I have the
Risky Business Poker bracelet, we still have several weeks to go,
(40:32):
several poker tournaments to play. And you know, it would
be wonderful, Nate, if we both had really strong ends
to the year and had to kind of had to
reconsider how that bracelet is divided.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
That would be a wonderful way to end the year, wouldn't.
Speaker 1 (40:47):
Ever, it really would, it really would. Best of luck
to both of us. Let's let's go crush at the
poker tables. Let us know what you think of the show.
Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm.
Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool
production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced
by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia,
Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our
executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.
Speaker 1 (41:27):
If you like the show, please rate and review us
so other people can find us too, But once again,
only if you like us. We don't want those bad
reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.
Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making
better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
And I'm Nate Silver. Now today in the show, it
is the annual edition of the Riskies.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Use.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
There are awards for the best and worst decisions of
the year from kind of a gambling slash game, theory, lens,
a little bit of poker, a little bit of sports,
a little bit of politics, just the usual Nate Emeria tactics. Marie,
are you are you excited?
Speaker 1 (00:55):
I am excited, Nate. I love handing out awards, especially
for bad decision making. And there have been a lot
of bad decisions this year.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
A record number. I mean, it's a world accelerates. Were
the more than bad decisions last year? I don't know,
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
We've we've had some pretty bad decision years. But yeah,
let's let's get into the risk case and we can
we can maybe our listeners can compare to last year
to see which year was worse.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Yeah, no, I mean, we have we have a new president.
It feels like Trump's the president forever, right, But like
when the year began, Joseph Robinette Biden was president.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Then why is it so funny. Speaking of humor, why
is it so funny when you say his middle name?
Speaker 2 (01:39):
I don't know, Robinette. What the fuck is that you know?
Is that some Delaware? Are we sure Delaware is real?
Have you ever been to Delaware?
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Are you sure birds are real? Name?
Speaker 2 (01:51):
I'm birds more than Delaware, probably probably oh point three
percent of our listeners are in Delaware. We don't mean
to insult you. We know it's a beautiful I've been.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
To Delaware on the train. Usually, pass.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
On a train doesn't count. You have to like, uh, sleep,
eat or pee somewhere birth to count. That is having
visited estate.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Wait wait, wait, wait, hold on. Peeing in a state
counts as visiting. So like if I get off the
highway and use the rest area, it counts as having visited.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Correct, fascinating.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Those are the rules.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Okay, okay, those are the rules.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Those are the rules. Fine, excellent. I don't know if
I've ever been to Delaware. I passed through on a train.
I've probably peed on the train in Delaware.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
No, No, the train. You have to leave the security perimeter, Maria, Like,
it's a little bit if you go outside and like
take like a stretch break or or a smoke break
or a bathroom break at the station in Wilmington. I
think that counts, but like I don't. You have to
leave the actual train, all right.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
So let's get on with the year in the rear
view mirror and the Risky Awards. So our first ward
goes to the hero call of the Year, which is
a decision that looked crazy at the time but turned
out to be absolutely brilliant. And I felt myself coming
up short. I was like, there were a lot of
shit decisions and decisions that looked bad at the time
and ended up being bad. What's something that you think
(03:24):
is something that looked crazy and turned out to be
absolutely brilliant.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
I guess Zoron Mumdanni choosing to run for mayor, and you,
I mean, it didn't seem crazy.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
It didn't seem crazy. That's the thing.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
I thought, what you going to do?
Speaker 1 (03:36):
I had Mom Donnie with a question mark because like
Mum Donnie fits into it. We definitely need to give
Zoron Mum Donnie an award for the risk case. But
maybe it is hero call of the year. Maybe the
people who supported Zoron very early on are the hero
call of the year.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
I mean, I guess all the people who sucked up
to Trump and then got pardoned. You gotta, you know,
give credit whords to George Sentos for example. I don't know,
but I guess it didn't seem crazy.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
It it does seem crazy. So, yeah, hero call like
something where you're you know, it's it's a hero call
for poker players out there. You know what a hero
call is. It's not you're holding aces and you end
up calling top set. It's you know, you're calling with
ace high on a you know, on an incredibly wet board.
Seems crazy, but it turns out to be brilliant. Or
(04:25):
you're calling with jack hi or ten high because you
think that the person has a busted straight draw and
has five high and uh, yeah, that's the hero call
of the year. Well we'll put mom Donnie there kind
of in yeah with a question mark, because I think
that at the beginning of the campaign, when he did
(04:46):
decide to run, like, the odds really did not look
good for him. Nate, do you happen to remember what
the prediction markets and just what the polls were saying.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I'm sure you start. I'm sure he was at one
percent or whatever.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Yeah, right, he was like a incredible underdog right at
the beginning. Yeah, all right, well let's try number two.
The worst fold, the decision that left everyone wondering why
walk away from such a sure thing?
Speaker 2 (05:16):
I mean, quite obviously if you're a sports fan. The
Luca Dontch trade was this year, and it was still
the most inexplicable trade in sports history. Lucas averaging thirty
five points a game, nine rebounds, nine assists this year,
shooting forty seven percent on field goals, Dallas trade him
for the perpetually injured Anthony Davis. They did back into
(05:39):
getting number one overall pick Cooper Fly due to a
stroke of luck. Nevertheless, general manager Nico Harrison was recently
fired from the team. Yeah, this was like the still
the weirdest trade in sports history. I was at this
random little poker tournament in Maryland quite late. My phone
was dead. When it scrolled across the ESPN bottom line,
(06:00):
I like literally thought I was having like a stroke
or hallucinating. I'm like, why the fuck would you trade
Luca for Anthony Davis? But it was real. I mean,
it has to be like the winner here.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Yeah, that's I mean, I think that for sports fans,
that's definitely the winner. And I actually remember doing this
podcast episode with you and reading about this, and as
a non sports fan, I was like, wait, what in
the world is going on? This is very weird. So
I had a different one for worst fold. I had
the Democrats in the government shutdown folding and deciding to
(06:36):
avoid that. I had that as the worst fold of
the year for the decision that left everyone wondering, what
the fuck did you just do? Why did we why
were we even in this pot right?
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Like?
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Why did we play this hand to the river? If
you're going to fold, like, what were you thinking you do?
Speaker 2 (06:52):
The next one is cooler of the year. Cooler if
you're not familiar, is when when you have a very
good hand, your opponent has an even better hand and
there's that much you can do to avoid it. So
you have packet kings. I have King to Maria as
pocket aces.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
So for this one, and this one is a little
bit controversial, but I would put Sam Altman and open Ai,
who was leading up until very recently, kind of in
all indicators, and then I've realized there's somewhat of our
recency bias here, But you know, absolute great hand has
(07:30):
been like all the best researchers market edge and seems
to have somehow fallen behind by sticking to kind of
their you know, their approach and potentially putting a little
bit too much weight on how do we generate money
right away with things like Sora et cetera, like basically
(07:53):
creating slop as opposed to trying to refine models and
seeing you know, Gemini Claude leapfrog over them in a
lot of different metrics. So I think that there was
no reason that had to have happened, because I think
that open Ai had the biggest resources out of any company. So,
like I said, maybe this is maybe you don't agree
(08:13):
with that, but for me, like it seems like they
had a great hand, but it's right now. They'll probably
not They're not going to lose in the long term,
but right now it seems like they're on the back foot.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Yeah. I mean this is a slightly different spirit of
cooler in which it's kind of like maybe misplaying a
very robust situation, right, Yeah, I know. I think the
smartest people who are observers of AI say that, like
open Ai has probably lost its lead in the large
language model category squandered.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
It's lead.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
Like the euation is also going up by three acts
or five x or something over the course of the year.
I'm sure Sam Altman is still sleeping well at night.
But yeah, I mean, you know who well, I mean,
if you want another sports one, Notre Dame missing the
college football playoff because they think they're special and refuse
to join a conference. That's maybe a little esoteric Maria,
(09:04):
but like, but they're they're privileged, a privileged bunch of
kids who who you know, think they're special and couldn't
get in line and join a conference and play a
real schedule. But that's that's you know, not a hearing
nor there.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
All right, Well, there we have it, so tilt of
the year, so kind of what's the most emotional decision
of the year. I've got I've got lots for this one.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
I mean, it feels like we have to mention Elon
Muskets some point had a fantastic year and you know,
kind of crashing and burning out of Doge even faster
than I thought, and I thought it wouldn't last particularly long. Yeah,
I think I think, you know, I think Elon's got
(09:49):
to be up there. What do you think.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
We're I was going to give it to RFK, who
has emotionally, you know, been so I mean, he's doing
quite well, He's accomplished everything. But I think that he
is one of the most emotional people that we have seen,
and his crusade against vaccine, against science in general, against
(10:12):
NIH funding, against all of that, seems to be very
emotionally driven, someone who cannot be convinced by any data
and just has this personal vendetta and feels like everything
is personal about him, right, Like everything that he says
he makes it feel like, oh, people are out to
get me personally, and I am the scapegoat and I
am going to prove them all wrong. So it seems
(10:34):
to me like he's the tiltiest person like I would actually,
you know, I would bet that playing against him at
the poker table would be an interesting experience. I think
he's someone who would let he would take everything personally
and really let the losses go to go to his head.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Do you think that Trump would be good at poker? Now?
Speaker 1 (10:54):
I don't. We've talked about this before. I think that
Trump's over confidence and overblown ego would keep him from
being good at poker, right, he doesn't take negative feedback,
he would think that he's a lot better than he
actually is, which is actually idea, like, those are the
best people to play poker against, the ones who have
an overblown sense of their own skills, right, because they're
(11:15):
not going to be taking negative criticism, negative feedback, and
they're not going to be learning as much, and they're
going to be the ones who are blaming the cards,
blaming the deck, you know, blaming everything except their own play.
And you want that, right, you want someone who is
incapable of learning from those types of things. Now, he
would be someone who I think would be very successful
(11:36):
against knits in the short term because he'd be super aggressive, right,
he'd be someone who would kind of fight for every pot,
who would bet big, who would like have all this
bluster and confidence. And if you don't see through that,
I think that aggression pays off in the immediate term,
but in the long term, if you then don't adjust
and keep that up and you're playing against good players
(11:58):
who do adjust to you, you're going to go broke.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Yeah, and poker the better failure mode is aggression, you
know what I mean? Yeah, you induce mistakes and different
types of mistakes from your opponents. And you know, I
think it'd be better than better than Biden. Better than Biden.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Yeah, I mean that's not saying much, but yeah, he
probably would be better than all right, So let's let's
go to another good decision. Ish, it doesn't have to
be good. Actually, it's the GTO call of the year,
so game theory optimalist call. So the most balanced sound
(12:35):
decision of the year. What do we got for balanced?
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Well, especially in the NFL in general strategy on fourth
downs for examples, becoming much more gt O. But i'll
do a politician when here give it to Gavin Newsome.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
Oh yeah, yeah, that's a good one.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Not my favorite, not my favorite personality. However, he did
understand that if Republicans were willing to engage in mid
decade redistricting in states like Texas, that California should reciprocate.
It's kind of straight out of like the Prisoner's Alemma.
And you think aggressive gerrymandering is bad, even think the
GUP started, You know, you have to respond, and so
(13:18):
Newsoen did that aggressively and effectively, and so he wins
this award in my.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Opinion, Yeah, I think I think that that that's actually
a very good, very good pick on your side, Nate.
And it's a breath of fresh air to see someone
actually make a good political decision. Right, We've had so
many shitty political decisions this year, and on both sides
of the aisle, right, like so many people just doing
things where you're like, what in the world are you
even thinking? And he did. He did see that opportunity
(13:46):
and he executed it well. He also was able to
get the support he needed to pass the measures that
he needed. He was able to even people who don't
like him, you know, had to smile at his social
media kind of his social media team was good at
mimicking Trump and kind of you know, making making him
at least for a moment when that social media war.
(14:10):
So people I think.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Yeah, I'm not I'm not sure gonna gi him too
much credit for that part. But but but he has
getting ground, and he has getting ground in like prediction
markets for the nomination race and polls and so you know, look,
I mean a lot of it is cringe. Unfortunately, cringe
sometimes works. Cringe. There's a big audience for and you know,
(14:32):
especially for like older MSNBC watching Democrat. They love the
fucking Cringe. They love Cringe, and Gavin Newsom is cringe.
His Twitter account is cringe, and Cringe is winning.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
We'll be back right after this.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Uh okay. Next, the Danny Kanaman Memorial Cognitive Bias of
the Year Award, Cognitive Bias Best explains twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
I am going to say, uh a mix of I mean,
these are very related of recency bias with historic amnesia
and general like alliteracy about how things have played out
in history, where all of the decisions seem to be
focused on such short term thinking, right, just using like
(15:37):
who who are we? Like, who am I beating right now?
Who am I trying to get one over on? Right now?
Who am I trying to beat today without kind of
this consideration of weight, Like, there's a lot of history
here and this is not just the present moment. There
are you know there there are data points that are
(16:00):
going to kind of be helpful to me that happened
way in the past, and I have to be thinking
into the future as well, you know, things like you
know tariffs, right, It just seems to just have a
certain historical amnesia where you know, how did this kind
of thing play out in the past, but in general,
(16:20):
just all the decisions seem to be very shortsighted and
very in the moment focused, without without grounding in how
does this actually look? What are the implications? What can
I take from historical lessons so that this decision is
actually good for the future and not just for the
(16:43):
present moment.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Yeah, Look, it's pretty classic for new presidents to come
in to the Oval Office and overread their men. Date
Trump being so insistent on tariffs, I mean, even if
they haven't had quite as much of a negative impact
as some economists might have predicted. You know, consumers have
(17:06):
been very gloomy about the economy for ever since Liberation
Day quote unquote back in April. You know, without this
investment in AI, it's not clear the economy will be
growing very much at all. And Trump just won an
election on inflation. Now one calls it affordability. You know what,
(17:26):
call it fucking if I've already had this rant on
the show before. You know, affordability feels too fucking euphemistic
to me. Call it see a little too highbrow. Call
it fucking inflation. You win an election on inflation, and
then you pass a bunch of terror policies that cause
higher inflation. It seems like some type of some type
of cognitive bias or deserves to be somewhere in the
in the negative category of these awards.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Yeah. Absolutely absolutely, So let's uh, let's go on to
our Djen of the Year, which we as of last
year renamed the Epei Masuhara Award for Djen of the Year.
We don't have anyone quite on that level, but there
were a lot of contenders for this one.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
I mean, what about Chauncey Billups, the former head coach
of the Portland Trail Blazer.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Oh had Chauncey, I had Terry Rosier, I had all
all the.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Yeah, we have.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
I mean we had the indictments, the NBA indictments, So
you can you can take any of those athletes, coaches,
like people who were making lots of money and who
made very very questionable decisions that have jeopardized their.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
I think I'm gonna I'm gonna get with Chauncey. He's
the most prominent of these figures, right. He is an
NBA Hall of Famer, I believe, otherwise known as co
Conspiratory Number eight. I believe or I forget which number
he was, I'm gonna give I'm gonna give Chauncey the award.
Speaker 1 (18:44):
Okay, that's that makes sense. So I initially gave it
to Chauncey, and then I thought maybe Terry because Terry
actually threw games as well, so as far as we know,
allegedly allegedly through games by letting people bet on like
different outcomes and then you know, sitting out and uh
fading injury, et cetera, et cetera. So depending on Yeah,
(19:07):
but Chauncey Billups is obviously more prominent.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
So yeah, does Michael ms Rahey is her consideration.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Here for Djen of the Year? Yeah, sure, why not?
I mean, Michael Misrahi is quite a djen. He won
the World Series main Event, he won the Players Championship,
so Djen of the Year could be a good thing.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
There are rumors that he was like out quite late
at various clubs and anyway, but I think I think
Chauncey earned this. But in a weaker year that we'd
have to consider Michael ms Rahi.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
That's that's that's fair. We we had a very robust
slate of nominees this year. It's like the Oscars when
you know, the best Picture nominees come out and you're
like shit, like, how do I choose?
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Right?
Speaker 1 (19:49):
This year, the Dejen of the Year slate was really full.
We're sorry everyone who didn't get it better? Like next year,
how about the Knit of the Year? Nate? Who do
you think was the nidias this year?
Speaker 2 (20:01):
Who is a guy who falled as king at the
final table? Is that Kenny Hallard is supposed to be
a great guy, right, but it you couldn't give it
to You could give it to Chuck Schumer for folding
on the shutdown. Here's an obscure one, which I find
kind of funny. Right, So, Brad Lander was the New
York City compatroller is by some measures, was the most
(20:25):
broadly liked candy in the New York mayor race, and
he he basically endorsed Zoran and helped clinch Zoran finishing
in first place in the in the primary right because
he thought he was going to get I mean, I'm
sure he hates Cuomo, which understandable, but he thought he
was going to get like the deputy mayor's job. And
(20:46):
Zora was like, nope, sorry, bro, you know I'll endorse
your campaign for Congress. But like, so that was a
case where like you make a sacrifice and wind up
getting getting nothing for it, right, I mean, he got
lots of kudos on Twitter from Democrats who don't like Cuomo,
but like that comes to mind a little bit.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
Yeah, that's that's an interesting one. Yeah, I was I
was going to go with someone like Schumer in line
with my Democratic shutdown as the worst fold of the year,
because nance you know, that's the thing. If you're in it,
you're gonna end up making nitty folds that you should
not be making. Right, Like, those two things go hand
in hand. One of the worst things about being in
(21:25):
it is that you fold hands that you really should
be calling and you don't put yourself Sure, you can
protect your chips, but you also don't put yourself in
a position to win. Right. That kind of strategy ends
up putting you on the back foot repeatedly. And I
think that that's kind of what happened here.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Did you make any bad folds this here, Maria, I
don't know.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
I well, no, no, in the sense that I wasn't shown.
I think I'm sure that I made some very bad folds.
But in order to know whether you made a bad fold.
The person has to then show you what they had right,
And if you aren't sure if they were bluffing or not,
then you don't know if it was a bad fold.
(22:09):
I'm guessing that I made some really bad folds this year,
Like if I were betting on it, I would say,
like over ninety percent certain that I've made some really
bad folds. But I can't. I didn't have any of
those situations where someone then showed me in their hand.
I had situations where they then told me what they had,
but I don't trust that because I don't trust poker
players to actually tell me the truth about what they had.
(22:31):
In a lot of situations poker players life.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
I had one in a home tournament where like this
woman was quite bad at poker, and I had like
it was a board with like three of a kind
on the board. It was like, you know, seven seven seven,
nine king or something right, And I had like a
pair of nine full house right, and she battle a
(22:59):
lot with a pair of sixes right, so underpair to
the board a weaker full house and I had and
I just thought, well, okay, is a really tight player.
But like she didn't actually know, she didn't realize that
like having a full house was not actually a great
hand on that board because there's so many better full
houses or quads. So I folded because I gave her
(23:21):
too much credit. Basically, that's funny.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
There's a you know, the one of the pivotal poker
scenes in Molly's Game. You've seen the movie, yes, So
there's there's a scene where a good player makes a
huge fold because he doesn't realize that he's playing against
a bad player. He didn't realize I think that Brad
was bad and then it ends up and then he'd
(23:44):
buy mistake flashes one of the cards and he realizes
that he made a bad fold and it puts him
on megatilt and he hands up losing tons and tons
of money. That is sometimes one of the worst things
that you can do, which is actually an interesting consideration
for this award. When you aren't capable, when you give
other people too much credit, sometimes you can you can
(24:06):
be nittier than you should be. And so that's why
you know, for good decision making, you really need to
be accurate in your evaluations, not only of yourself but
of other people. And that can be really difficult. In
the absence of data, right, Like, if you don't have
enough data points, how do you make those determinations? And
obviously some of it comes from experience, but then you
(24:28):
fill in the blanks with biases, with you know what
you're kind of you try to fill in the blanks
as best you can. Sometimes you write, and sometimes you're
just absolutely wrong. And sometimes Nate, have you, I mean,
I'm sure you've been in this situation, both in poker
and non in poker, I've had situations where I have
folded huge hands, both literal and metaphorical, because I've read
(24:52):
the other person as being incredibly strong, and I was
right in that they thought they were incredibly strong, but
they actually weren't, so the read was correct, but they
didn't realize where they were relative to me in that situation.
And so that's something.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
To where just a narrow piece of actual booker advice
for listeners, right, because Marie and I both have this
experience of playing an extremely wide range of game textures,
from the toughest opponents in the world and high rollers
to the worship you've ever seen play poker and like
charity events, right, And when you get in that really
bad section of the pool. Then you have to give
(25:32):
some consideration to your absolute hand strength, right like that,
Yeah I have a flush. There may be better flushes
and full houses on the board. But like, but the
fact is, disapponent might think top pair is good hand.
They don't know how to read the relative strength of
hands and so you know, so yeah, don't don't fold
good hands for cheap against bad opponents who you don't
(25:56):
have that firm a read on. Yeah right, we really
and we really stereotype bad players based on you know,
one or two pieces of information. And yeah, it's just
a matter of hedging a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (26:07):
Absolutely absolutely staying on the poker. Uh. Note Risky Business bracelet,
which host was the better poker player this year? I
have no idea in Nate, I don't actually.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Well, you won a tournament. Yeah, I think it has
to be you, right right, I had been, i'd have
been a World series.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
You had a better World Series than I did.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
I think winning a tournament that Maria.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
Well, I appreciate that night. But but risky business listeners,
the year is not yet over. We still have a
few weeks to go. I am in Vegas playing the
World Poker Tour. Win Championships, and Nate is heading to
the Bahamas to play in the double Tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
I'll be in the Bahamas playing, uh, playing this twenty
five K, sixty million guaranteed tournament. And it sure is
gonna be nice, Maria. When I win that tournament, it's
gonna and that will and that will.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
Actually I'm gonna have to give my Risky Business bracelet
to you, Nate. I'm gonna have to give it back
unless unless I win the ten thousand dollars made event
here at the win, in which case we can just
agree just to let the bracelet.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
No, I think, I think I think the paradise would
still it would still away there. It's a sixty million
guaranteed price. Bool.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
I understand, Nate. But I've already won a tournament this year,
so I'm just I'm just saying.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
Okay, okay, okay, Marie, that will be.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
That will be putting me into two wins. But well,
just but but when you win.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Forward to that problem where we've both won these I know, amazing.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
Bracelets, it's gonna be it's gonna be a great problem
to have. We're going to have to cut the Risky
Business bracelet in half. I think in that situation and
share it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna take it
for myself because you you will be worthy of having
the bracelet as well. Or maybe we get a second one.
Maybe we uh, you know, go all out on the
budget and get two bracelets.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
I'm look, I'm looking. I'm looking forward to my new
vacation home and asking them and to buy with this with.
Speaker 1 (28:09):
This's been interesting. Are you Are you a skier?
Speaker 2 (28:13):
No skiing seems like a terrible idea. I'm not. I'm
not a knit It just seems like don't people get
injured all the time when they're skiing.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
They do?
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Yes, Yeah, that seems crazy, Like it's just like and
when you talk to you, he's like, oh, yeah, I
broke my broke my colorone one. You know, It's like
it just seems like a very very very very high
rate of injury.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Yes, my family is a family of skiers. And I
started skiing when I was I think, oh, five years old,
And I don't really ski much anymore because you know,
I don't live near a mountain, and at some point,
like after college, I just kind of stopped skiing. Everyone
else in my family continues skiing. I am the only
(28:54):
person in my family who has not gotten the serious
injury from skiing. Yeah, because I stopped everyone else broken bones,
torn acls, concussions, and other traumatic head injuries. Like, you
don't have to be a knit to be afraid of
injuring yourself.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
And we'll be right back after this break. All right.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
We've got two awards from the podcast The Town About
Hollywood that we awarded last year as well. So those
two are the Mia Coolpa I Was Wrong Award and
the second Haters I Was Right Award. So what do
you have for those? Is there anything that you think
you were wrong about or you were right about?
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Well, you know, I keep track of my sports bets.
There's lots of individual things that I was wrong about,
certainly on the sports side. You know. I'm thinking back
on columns. I mean, I read a column earlier in
the year about like how the market, like the stock market,
wouldn't tame Trump or curb his excesses. I think that
is more wrong than right, because it seems to he
(30:15):
seems to be upset when like the arrows go down
in the stock market quite a bit. I don't know,
I mean, there weren't very many elections this year, which
produces and oppeticially me to be obnoxiously wrong about things.
I was almost wrong on the shut town. I thought
that like this kind of pretense of like shutting the
government down for for healthcare was not a very good plan,
(30:38):
right and then and but then lo and behold, after
a couple of weeks, Trump was threatening people's food stamps,
said he was becoming much less popular. I'm like, oh boy,
I'm I have to eat some curl on this one.
And that's fucking cave. So I guess I was. I
guess I was right, you know, I you know, for
the other second haters category, Like there were two or
three books about what a shitty condition that Biden was him,
(31:00):
which was a point of emphasis for me last year.
Of course, you know, I don't think Kamala Harris comes
across very well on her memoir of the campaign trial either.
So like the fact these people were fucking idiots, uh
you know, I don't mean Harris, but like I mean
the people surrounding Biden and Harris like that that felt
very validated this year. I guess.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
Yeah. So for I'm going to say for the Mia Colpa,
I was wrong Award. I think at the beginning of
the year, I was under selling some of the promises
of AI in a lot of areas, and I think
that it has gotten so much better this past year. Like, sure,
it's still hallucinates and like that that's funny.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
I'm kind of.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Well, it's because of right, But you and I started
the year on very different Like you were so much
more bullish and I was so much more bearish. So
I think we've probably like we're probably at the same
point now, Nate. But for me it's an I was
wrong and for you it was you know, it's one
of these things where we've both recalibrated with the new
data and I was like, Okay, you know in some
(32:04):
of these areas there's a lot of promise that I
didn't really realize. And you, on the other hand, were
so optimistic that now you're like, oh, there's You've had
to calibrate it down, which is kind of funny. So
I think I think we've met in the middle. The
second haters I was right, Award. I'm going to say
that the attack on higher education that was orchestrated by
(32:28):
you know, Trump and his cronies, a lot of people
were like, yeah, you know, fuck Harvard, blah blah blah.
But I think that I were already seeing with the
cuts and funding and the kind of drain in students
and all of this, that this is going to really
really hurt the United States for many, many years to come.
(32:49):
So I think I was right, what have it.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
You might have to use down? Yeah, they are using
it good. Good, No, like it is bad. But like
all the things Trump has done, I think higher education,
elite higher education. I'm a big fan of state schools. Right,
there's some schools like my I'm a minor university to
set up more for a free speech. Yeah, I'm I agree,
(33:14):
it's objectively bad. I'm not very sympathetic.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Yeah, but I think that you know, curbing cancer research
and all the things that these schools spread do it
is really bad.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
By the way, we have not because this did happen
in twenty twenty five, right, all these Republicans who confirmed
RFK Junior and Pete Hegseth, right, like, I mean.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
You know, yeah, talk about some fucking have some fucking spine, right, Like,
those are very very powerful positions that will have you know,
impacts for years to come.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
And so they deserve maybe Need of the Year. Right,
if I had brad Lander in there for an obscure endorsement,
I rescind that award brad Lander, and I give it
to congressional or Senate Republicans who confirmed. And it's fine.
You're going to have some partisan, very conservative nominees, right,
but p exth that r FFK Junior, maybe Tulsa Gabbard,
(34:09):
you know those three man up show some spine and voting.
A guess these people that are are are not qualified for.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
Their yes, absolutely absolutely all right. So now we've got
two awards that only one of us gives. So we're
going to have the Nate Silver Award for Riverian of
the Year. So, Nate, who are you going to award
the Riverian of the Year.
Speaker 2 (34:33):
I think since we haven't fitted in elsewhere here, we
should probably give it to Michael ms Rahi, Right, winning
both the main event and the Poker Players Championship in
the same year. You know, it is this kind of
once in a century type of accomplishment. You know, he
probably tilts more toward the Djon side of things than
(34:56):
maybe the pure Riverian side, but like it's a big
ac contiument in the Poker World, and we often talk
negatively about poker on the show. It makes a lot
of negative headlines, right, but that that was a positive
for the game. He's a very popular player.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
Congratulations mister Msrachi, Congratulations mister Grinder.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
And the Maria kind of Cove Award for the biggest
bluff of the year.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
I am going to go ahead and hand that to
the subject of one of our recent Risky Business episodes,
Olivia NUTSI for convincing people over and over that she's
a really good writer and a good journalist and getting
hired over and over despite ethical lapses and frankly, really
(35:42):
bad writing when she doesn't have a good editor, as
we discovered in American Canto, and I, you know, she
It's one of these things where I wanted to give
her a lot of the awards because like you would
think that, like if she could actually write well or
took the time to write well, like then you know,
it would be a totally different thing. But I think
(36:04):
that she has bluffed her way, using a lot of
different attributes to a point where people assumed she was
a brilliant writer, and the evidence points to the contrary.
And it seems like as other people have pointed out
the real heroes of the story are her editors at
New York Magazine, who made her writing seem very very good.
So I'm giving her the biggest bluff.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Of the year. Her ex fiancee Ryan Liza isn't looking much.
Speaker 1 (36:29):
No, he is a no no, but you.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Know it's part five of his opus, right, and he's like,
I came to New York for twenty four hours trying
resolve situation, and I wound up in this hotel with
her for five days. It's like brow that you did
she forcibly forcibly abduct you?
Speaker 1 (36:46):
Right?
Speaker 2 (36:47):
And like ill anyway, that whole thing, that whole nexus
of events. I you know, yeah, And of course RFK
isn't messed up in this. I don't know. I don't know, Maria, yep, I.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
Totally agree with you. I don't know is the correct answer. Anyway,
Congratulations Olivia, You're getting biggest bluff of the year. So
I don't I don't know because I don't really make
bets myself. What do you think do you have most
plus ev bet and most negative ev bet of the
year where you just couldn't help yourself.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
Uh, I'm trying to think, you know, in terms of again,
it's not an election year, so you're kind of not
making as many bets. I think, uh, you know, look,
my Nvidio stock has done well. I mean actually, okay,
so one thing I did is that, like I don't
know that man angel stocks by my own some when
(37:38):
I was booking my reservations for Vegas for the Worldsare's
Poker and realize kind of how much cheaper the hotel
rooms were. I sold some gaming company stocks. As a
result of that, I'm like this super viarius for the industry,
and that's trade's gone well. So I'm going to give
(37:58):
myself credit for that, and like worst bet of the year.
I mean, my NFL model really hates the Chicago Bears,
who are now nine and four, right, so the Bears
of have I think they're bad, but the Bears have
cost me a lot of money.
Speaker 1 (38:13):
You're still bearish on the Bears, but you have lost
a life.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
If I'm like just exhausted at the end of a
booker tournament, you know, I'll kind of like kind of
do a little mini punt like I was playing. It
was randomly in Florida to give a conference and like
played this five K tournament the last day of their
WT festival, right was waiting for cashame table opening them
after I busted out of the five k and played
(38:36):
a three hundred dollars tournament, right like a bounty tournament.
I'm like, I really do not feel like like being
here knitting it up with five big lines when the
first place is only a couple thousand bucks, right, and
I'm not gonna win any bounties. And so I know
I overcalled with ten or jack nine of diamonds versus
(38:57):
three other players, so I could have gotten a bounty
from one of them, and I'm like, I have four
big one. Actually, it's probably fine, It's probably all fine, Yeah,
but I just want to get out of here. I
want to go. I haven't eaten been there.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
Yeah, We've all been there. When you get tired at
the end of a long day, like, decision making quality
definitely deteriorates, and it takes real mental discipline to like
stay focused and stay you know, stay with it up
until the end, and self knowledge to understand when you're
making suboptimal decisions because of that, because of that kind
(39:34):
of end of day, Like, I've definitely had situations where
I've been like, you know what, I just want to
go to dinner, Like I don't have that many chips,
and like dinner break is in an hour, but like
I just want to either spin it or bust so
that I have a longer dinner. Right, Like I've definitely,
I've definitely done stuff like that, And I know it's
not good. Right, That's a horrible, horrible decision. That is
(39:56):
not how you're supposed to be making decisions. That is
not how you play poker. But that happens in real
life too, when sometimes you just like do a fuck
it decision because you're tired.
Speaker 2 (40:08):
Hang, grey is really bad. I figured it out, right,
don't try to agree.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
This very bad. Well, that concludes our riskies for the year.
Congratulations to all of our winners, and our condolences to
some of our winners, and we will we will maintain
that even though for now, for now I have the
Risky Business Poker bracelet, we still have several weeks to go,
(40:32):
several poker tournaments to play. And you know, it would
be wonderful, Nate, if we both had really strong ends
to the year and had to kind of had to
reconsider how that bracelet is divided.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
That would be a wonderful way to end the year, wouldn't.
Speaker 1 (40:47):
Ever, it really would, it really would. Best of luck
to both of us. Let's let's go crush at the
poker tables. Let us know what you think of the show.
Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm.
Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool
production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced
by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia,
Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our
executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.
Speaker 1 (41:27):
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Maria Konnikova
Nate Silver
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If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Burden
The Burden is a documentary series that takes listeners into the hidden places where justice is done (and undone). It dives deep into the lives of heroes and villains. And it focuses a spotlight on those who triumph even when the odds are against them. Season 5 - The Burden: Death & Deceit in Alliance On April Fools Day 1999, 26-year-old Yvonne Layne was found murdered in her Alliance, Ohio home. David Thorne, her ex-boyfriend and father of one of her children, was instantly a suspect. Another young man admitted to the murder, and David breathed a sigh of relief, until the confessed murderer fingered David; “He paid me to do it.” David was sentenced to life without parole. Two decades later, Pulitzer winner and podcast host, Maggie Freleng (Bone Valley Season 3: Graves County, Wrongful Conviction, Suave) launched a “live” investigation into David's conviction alongside Jason Baldwin (himself wrongfully convicted as a member of the West Memphis Three). Maggie had come to believe that the entire investigation of David was botched by the tiny local police department, or worse, covered up the real killer. Was Maggie correct? Was David’s claim of innocence credible? In Death and Deceit in Alliance, Maggie recounts the case that launched her career, and ultimately, “broke” her.” The results will shock the listener and reduce Maggie to tears and self-doubt. This is not your typical wrongful conviction story. In fact, it turns the genre on its head. It asks the question: What if our champions are foolish? Season 4 - The Burden: Get the Money and Run “Trying to murder my father, this was the thing that put me on the path.” That’s Joe Loya and that path was bank robbery. Bank, bank, bank, bank, bank. In season 4 of The Burden: Get the Money and Run, we hear from Joe who was once the most prolific bank robber in Southern California, and beyond. He used disguises, body doubles, proxies. He leaped over counters, grabbed the money and ran. Even as the FBI was closing in. It was a showdown between a daring bank robber, and a patient FBI agent. Joe was no ordinary bank robber. He was bright, articulate, charismatic, and driven by a dark rage that he summoned up at will. In seven episodes, Joe tells all: the what, the how… and the why. Including why he tried to murder his father. Season 3 - The Burden: Avenger Miriam Lewin is one of Argentina’s leading journalists today. At 19 years old, she was kidnapped off the streets of Buenos Aires for her political activism and thrown into a concentration camp. Thousands of her fellow inmates were executed, tossed alive from a cargo plane into the ocean. Miriam, along with a handful of others, will survive the camp. Then as a journalist, she will wage a decades long campaign to bring her tormentors to justice. Avenger is about one woman’s triumphant battle against unbelievable odds to survive torture, claim justice for the crimes done against her and others like her, and change the future of her country. Season 2 - The Burden: Empire on Blood Empire on Blood is set in the Bronx, NY, in the early 90s, when two young drug dealers ruled an intersection known as “The Corner on Blood.” The boss, Calvin Buari, lived large. He and a protege swore they would build an empire on blood. Then the relationship frayed and the protege accused Calvin of a double homicide which he claimed he didn’t do. But did he? Award-winning journalist Steve Fishman spent seven years to answer that question. This is the story of one man’s last chance to overturn his life sentence. He may prevail, but someone’s gotta pay. The Burden: Empire on Blood is the director’s cut of the true crime classic which reached #1 on the charts when it was first released half a dozen years ago. Season 1 - The Burden In the 1990s, Detective Louis N. Scarcella was legendary. In a city overrun by violent crime, he cracked the toughest cases and put away the worst criminals. “The Hulk” was his nickname. Then the story changed. Scarcella ran into a group of convicted murderers who all say they are innocent. They turned themselves into jailhouse-lawyers and in prison founded a lway firm. When they realized Scarcella helped put many of them away, they set their sights on taking him down. And with the help of a NY Times reporter they have a chance. For years, Scarcella insisted he did nothing wrong. But that’s all he’d say. Until we tracked Scarcella to a sauna in a Russian bathhouse, where he started to talk..and talk and talk. “The guilty have gone free,” he whispered. And then agreed to take us into the belly of the beast. Welcome to The Burden.