Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Geoffrey Yu & Huw van Steenis

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Geoffrey Yu & Huw van Steenis.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
A single best idea A four hour broadcast today. What
a set of conversations given the newsflow. As Lauri Calvicina said,
she was celebrating her mother's day and the world paused
and turned upside down about four pm Sunday, Wall Street time,
and on we went, and on we went. Today. We

(00:35):
blew up the show two or three times. It was
just great to start strong with Jeffrey Ewitt BNY really
quite exceptional at pulling together equities, bonds, currencies, commodities sent
most of the time in talking to him about tariffs. Here, Jeffrey,
you unchanged American exceptionalism.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
US exceptionalism means you buy stocks, You buy US stocks,
you buy US bonds, and you buy the dollar. We
think that the only thing which may decorrelate slightly or
not just be as full on is on the dollar side.
So to compensate for maybe a little bit more risk
premia due to the recent uncertainty, is a softer dollar.
But again, this shouldn't be seen as a bad thing.
A it's something that the Trump administration, perhaps on and off,

(01:16):
has been talking about. But b what if US companies
become exporters as well, then you can benefit from that
FX earnings translation that Europe, Switzerland, you know, Japan and
even China Asia they always look for So that correlationshift
is perhaps taking place. But don't read it as a
negative for US exceptionalism, at least not yet. Let's say,
if US companies can adapt, I.

Speaker 2 (01:36):
Would suggest a different type of uncertainty on this day
versus seven days ago or seven months ago. Jeffrey, you
with being why what approves you have? Hugh von steinis
with us. He was with us, and then I think
he went to Milton Institute out in LA and was
back again in New York City today. So we spoke

(01:56):
to the vice chairman of Oliver Wyman with all of
his respective on continental banking and finance, and of course
QVA and Steinas and the exceptional turmoil of his United Kingdom.

Speaker 4 (02:09):
The great advantage of the UK for many years was
it was mid atlantic. It had didn't have quite the
US growth rate, but it certainly was growing faster than Europe. Unfortunately,
since the financial crisis were particularly since Brexit, we've lost
that UK exceptionalism. In fact, in a way we were
exceptional compared to Europe and now where we've actually the
end of UK exceptionalism in twenty sixteen was really the

(02:30):
right and actually my Prime Minister m Carney was correct.
The Brexit was economically, at least put to one side,
politically a poor decision. So I think that we're trying
to get our act together again. I think one thing
that the President here has really shon a light on
is like the terms of trade internationally. The UK's terms
of trade with its nearest counterpart is now poorer. So

(02:54):
is there a way to put the politics one side
improve trade relationships? And if you want to us of
a hail mayor, it would be if Canada wants to
actually have lower tariffs with Europe, maybe there's an opportunity
for Ukraine Canada UK to end into a much lower
tariff zone.

Speaker 2 (03:10):
Here Von steinas of Oliver Wyman, of course the service
to the Bank of England with at the time Governor
Mark Karney now doing other things in Canada. Thank you
so much for your attention today, particularly thank you to
Eric and our team for just blowing up the show
literally three four times here over the last twenty four
hours on your commute across the nation. Thank you so

(03:33):
much for your attention on Bloomberg, I should say on YouTube,
Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and out at YouTube podcasts. It's
the single best idea.