May 8, 2025 • 37 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 8th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at NYU and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, joins to discuss the Fed decision and a recent op-ed on why he believes the US economy will survive the Trump shock and thrive. It comes as Fed Chair Jay Powell says he won't lower borrowing costs until there's more certainty on the direction of trade policy, which will have to come from the White House.
2) Ken Shinoda, Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine Capital, talks growth and inflation, signals from the bond market, and pressures in MBS market. Bond investors continue to search for clarity after Chair Powell suggested the Fed will wait for conviction on whether the next move is a cut based on the economy moving towards a recession or whether it's a move towards more restrictive policy due to high inflation becoming entrenched into the economy.
3) Richard Portes, professor at London Business School, joins in studio to talk tariffs and the dollar exchange rate, risks of a financial crisis, and a potential US-UK trade deal. The announcement is expected to boost the UK economy and markets, but investors will closely examine the extent to which Trump is willing to backtrack from his sweeping tariffs imposed on April 2.
4) Michael Nathanson, founding partner and Senior Research Analyst at Moffettnathanson, discusses his note on The Beginning of the End for Search in reaction to Apple's VP of Services comments. Apple is considering revamping Safari to focus on AI-powered search engines, potentially ending its longtime partnership with Google. Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president of services, believes AI search providers will eventually replace standard search engines like Google and that Apple will bring those options to Safari in the future.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on REAL ID Day and a NYT story on Agatha Christie, who died in 1976, teaching a class in AI.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
What an honor to have with this Noural Rubini, professor.
He's not emeritus. When you're you know you travel like
he does. He's such a young kid.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
I don't know how emeritusy he is at New York University.
Of course, Chairman Rubini at Global Economics. One of the
great moments for me was with Professor Rubini and Davos
a million years ago, where he's simply outlining two thousand
and seven, eight and nine to come.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
No, I don't care.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
The reason you're here is I'm looking May thirty first, Munich,
I mean a hitter like you got to be looking
the private skybox on stub Hub inter Milan versus PSG
for twenty nine thousand dollars. You got two seats in
the private skybox.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Are you gonna roll that?
Speaker 4 (01:12):
I'll watch it on TV.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
It's very exciting. He's a diehard from his youth in
the old world inter Milan. I want to go back.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
This is really serious, folks, and it's off the radar
right now. It shouldn't be bread sets or who you
started has been on fire.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
You and Brad Setser wrote a book eleven years ago. Whatever.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Fred Berxton wrote the wonderful introduction on EM. How does
EM affect him? When I see Taiwan dollar go out
five standard deviations?
Speaker 2 (01:42):
Whatever? How is emerging a market off the radar, affected.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
By China, US, US, Canada, US EU.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
What happens to your EM? Well?
Speaker 4 (01:55):
The good news for YM is that this time around
the trade shalk have not led to a strengthening of
the dollar, but rather a weakening of the dollar. With
the dollar weekends, EM currencies tend to appreciate. It's also
true that some of these Asian nations are sitting on
trillions of dollars of US treasuries. Their fornasts are very high,
(02:18):
and there's been some diversification because we've dented, how to say,
the dollar as a major global reserve currency given our
unstable policies, so people move out of US treasure and
seldom and go back to their own local currency. There
has been some appreciation and that has taken some momentum.
There's also hope in Asia. I think that there'll be
(02:39):
trade deals and the announce reciprocal tricks are going to
be much smaller than an on April second. That's also
strengthening some of these currencies, because some of them were
weakening because of the risk of a trade war and
so on. To think is a variety of factors leading
to that happening.
Speaker 5 (02:55):
How concerned are you, if at all, about the US
economy in the face of the uncertainty of all this
trade discussion back and forth and back and forth. It
seems like consumers might be pulling back. It seems like
corporate executives are pulling back on guidance. I'm not sure
how it's gonn to impact their businesses. Do you think
that's going to affect yours economy?
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Well, there are some headwinds coming from trade and it's uncertainty,
and there are some tailwinds coming from strong cappacks, especially
aid riven and still good income growth, creation and so on.
I would say that over the medium time. Actually, I'm
quite bullish about US economy. I think that because of technology,
US potential growth by the end of the deck it
(03:36):
could be four percent, an increase of two underd business points,
and even poor trade and migration policy can reduce growth
only by fifty business points. So the ratio within the
good stuff to underd business points to the bead fifties
four to one. So I think we'll be onder verge
of a secular boom over the next few years. So
I'm quite optimistic. But then in the short rum we'll
(03:58):
have probably a nearest by your end, there is an
increasing pop.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
You mentioned a medium term. You gotta be from Europe
to mention the medium term. We don't do that in America.
My basic conundrum, Neurabini yep, is we've got the short
term reality within an American political system which you live
with President Clinton, out to the long term view of
whatever Trump economics is and maybe a more optimistic future.
(04:25):
How do we get is they would say up in
Maine or you don't know this up in Maine where
Lisa collects black flies.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
They get from here to there? How do we get
from short term to long term success?
Speaker 4 (04:37):
The way we get it is this is here there'll
be a massive slowdown of growth. As you point out,
consumer and business confidence is down, inflation is going to
go corpus y four percent by your end, and that's
going to be a significant eaton real disposal income. So
by Q four we're going to be in a near recession.
The good news is that the FAT is now credibly
committed to fight inflation. They're not cutting rates. Therefore infliction
(05:00):
expeditions are anchored. Therefore, once infliction is higher but growth
is lower and you have a beginning of increase in
unemployment rate, the fact is going to be able to
cut rates.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
The thing.
Speaker 4 (05:09):
It's going to be a short and shallow recession, maybe
a couple of quarters a Q one, Q four and
Q one of next year, and then we'll have a
strong recovery because the tailweins coming from technology are massive.
I guess is leading in all the technology of the future.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Claims are out there on plan unit labor costs and productivity,
we're elevated.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
That's what we'll talk about here. Unit labor costs jump.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
From a revised two percent up to five point seven percent.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
I got a terror regime of three percent.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
You arguably were one of the people that set up
coming off the Atlantic Charter, the global trade, the globalization
mantra of a lower terror regime. Even if we pop
from one hundred and forty five percent drama in China
and we come back down to like a blended thirteen percent,
I don't get it. Is in the gap from a
three percent blended terraff up to ten percent or thirteen
(06:02):
percent blended heraf isn't that insurmountable.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
Probably the blend is going to be more than thirteen
because my baseline is ten to fifteen percent for all
the world and sixty percent for China, So the blend
that could be in the high teens. It's a bad world.
But let's put its way. I suppose that there is
an average tariff reciprocal on Europe of ten percent as
opposed to twenty.
Speaker 6 (06:25):
Big deal.
Speaker 4 (06:26):
The Europe can go up and down ten percent in
a matter of months.
Speaker 6 (06:29):
So is it good?
Speaker 3 (06:30):
No?
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Is it terrible?
Speaker 4 (06:32):
It's going to something? Is that to destroy the world?
Probably not, because currency can move more than ten percent
in a matter of months. So, of course is a
world that is fragmented. The world is the globalized. But
if the average tarf were being say ten to fifteen
percent rather than only three, the impact on growth is
going to be how to say moderate? I would say
(06:54):
this is will be moderate. Of course, with Chinese a
different story. With China at sixty percent, we're going to
de couple from China, and the shock on their growth
and the shock around inflation is going to be significant.
So I'm more worried about the fact we're not going
to de escalate with China. You said fair extent with.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
All of your political economics neural regni. Do you believe
common sense will come to the rescue in Washington?
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Well more than common sense. In December, I said there'll
be four guard trades against stupid policy like tariffs, market discipline,
good economic advisors, fed discipline, and thin majority in Congress.
Guess what when the stock market crashed, bonding were higher,
credit spreads are higher, they always hire. They blinked and
they started to de escalate. Two In that game of
Chicken between Trump and Powell, Trump blinked because he knew
(07:43):
if it was a grund fire power, there'll be a
shock to the market. So eblink the therefore fit fed
independence was a binding constraint. Eventually, the Peter Navarro of
the world were sidelines and the scot Passings of the world.
At the upper end, good economic advisors and the fact
the team I already mean it was boxing by Ford.
That's exactly what they said.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
The running out of times I got.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
I got goosebumps because I got Nora Obini and Richard
Porters back to back. I mean talk, it's an academic
wonk fest here right now. Have you ever done a
panel with Peter Navarro?
Speaker 4 (08:15):
I've not done a panel. I my team doing the
Trump one administration in the White House a couple of times.
So it's a strange economics from.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Did you teach Navarro economics at New York University?
Speaker 2 (08:29):
No?
Speaker 4 (08:29):
No, he was at PhD at Harvard, So but we
didn't overlap. Yeah, surprising a PhD economics from Harvard. But
Steve Mian is also PhD in economics from Harvard, so
do I How does I.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Got twenty seconds? How does inter Milan be PSG? What?
How does inter Milan be PSG? I don't know you're
gonna be there. You spend twenty eight thousand dollars, Tobi,
thank you, thank for. Lisa wants to know when's a
new book out.
Speaker 4 (09:01):
I don't have any one. Mega Threats come out two
years ago, still going and all the themes of the
book Mega threats are still very important today. All the
threats I talked about are materializing.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
Okay, So Maniel, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.
Noro Rabini, I can't say enough his commitment to what
we do here on economics, finance, investment, and his international economics.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
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say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Ken Shinoda joins us right now with a pedigree at
TCW over to Double Tree, Double Line Capital.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
Thrilled to have you with us.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Kenny, You've got a different gloss from southern California than
the rest of us when you look at Port of
Los Angeles Long Beach dynamics within the finance and investment
community of LA.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
What's the tone on this trade where it's different than
New York.
Speaker 7 (10:08):
Yeah, Well, you know you're seeing a slowdown in port activity.
We saw a big pull forward of imports ahead of
the tariffs, which is one of the things that led
to the decline in GDP in the first quarter, and
we're waiting, watching to see how the hard data now
comes in. You know, sentiment has rolled over pretty dramatically
as you look at consumer and business sentiment, and I
(10:29):
think the market right now is just waiting and watching
for what the future data holds.
Speaker 5 (10:34):
You know, I'm looking at the GO function the Bloomberg
Index browser for fixed income US Mortgage backed securities have been.
Speaker 8 (10:41):
The place to be this year so far to date.
How do you guys think about that part of the business.
Speaker 7 (10:45):
Yeah, it's been a good run. You know, mortgages struggled
dramatically during the rate rise and the coming out of
QE into QT. Sometime in the middle of twenty twenty three,
at the peak of rate volatility, the MBS index was
about two hundred basis points behind the corporate bond index
annualized for five years.
Speaker 6 (11:02):
Wow.
Speaker 7 (11:03):
I mean that's hard to do in fixed income. Nobody
wants to talk to Yeah, but you know, from these
valuations where you know, we're over ninetieth percentile on the
MBS spread, and we think that's an interesting place to be,
especially when you when you're worried about kind of more
risk off potentially MBS tends to outperform corporate credit.
Speaker 8 (11:21):
So where do you guys see value today?
Speaker 5 (11:24):
I think what our market probably is characterized most is
just uncertainty out there in the marketplace, whether it's Corporate
America pulling back some of their earnings guidance, what it's
the volatility and the bond market's the equity market uncertainly
seems to be the story of the day. How does
that impact kind of fixed income and agency?
Speaker 7 (11:40):
Yeah, well, you know, fixed income finally has kind of
been a stable place with the Fed, you know, not
not cutting but done hiking. It's kind of been a
place of stability in portfolio. So I think people are
kind of understanding the value of it. Everyone's been hiding
out in T bills, So I think it's maybe time
to move out, okay of that tea bill trade. And
(12:01):
you don't have to go totally out the curve out
to the tenure, but kind of the belly of the curve,
the two to five year portion of the curve. Find
a lot of opportunities there. But as we think about
the credit landscape, you know, tariff and certain he kind
of hits the corporate market a little bit more companies.
If you go away from companies more to assets that
are backed by consumer credit, things like mortgage backed securities,
(12:23):
even credit cards, auto loans. Parts of the securitized market
like commercial mortgage backed securities, you can find sectors that
aren't as exposed to tariffs. And one could argue that
increased labor costs, increased material costs will inhibit the supply
of new homes and that'll actually be positive for home prices.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
Kischanoda with his thrill that it could be with Double
Line Capital, and of course you know it associated with
the wonderful, handsome Jeffrey Gundlock. Good morning ninety two nine
FM up in handover New Hampshire, the land of Dartmouth
where mister Gundlock matriculated years ago. Give me the line
from Double Line, and I know Jefferys really opinionated on this.
(13:05):
On private equity in private credit, I'm going to state
that's off your remit, this is not the.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Way Double Line rolls.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
But where are we ending up with private equity in
private credit?
Speaker 7 (13:17):
Well, you know, private equity is struggling to get cash
back to investors because the M and A markets kind
of slowed down. The IPO markets slowed down, and so
you're seeing a lot of a desire to sell in
the secondary market. So there's there's going to be big
growth secondaries.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
What's a percent of haircut that you guys observe.
Speaker 7 (13:39):
Oh, I mean, I think you could easily get ten
twenty percent discounts to the to the NAV on those sales.
And then the private credit markets. I think one of
the reasons we didn't go into recession in twenty twenty
three was that, you know, the old school way of
of these cycles is the FED hikes rates, the couple
of markets kind of shut down, companies can't access the
credit markets, start people off, you go into recession. Well,
(14:02):
guess what that happened. FED hiked raakes, the high heeled market,
bank loan market was effectively shut down for a little bit,
but private credit came to the rescue. I think the
challenge is going to be for investors is that we
haven't really seen the credit cycle, and at some point
in time there will be losses and we'll see how
I mean, I'm just.
Speaker 5 (14:20):
Thinking about the mortgage related opportunities in your business, and
we haven't really seen the I don't know, I haven't
seen like major blow ups in the credit side of
the mortgage business.
Speaker 8 (14:32):
I mean, banks haven't been taking huge write downs.
Speaker 5 (14:35):
I haven't seen small banks blow out their numbers terribly
because of more mortgage loans.
Speaker 8 (14:41):
Where's the pain?
Speaker 7 (14:43):
You know, the banks healed themselves after the Global financial crisis.
Speaker 8 (14:46):
They took less risks.
Speaker 7 (14:48):
The regulators have cramped down on them, so you know,
there's been some pain some banks have exposure to, you know,
commercial real estate loans. But I think we did a
good job in the US kind of making sure that
they don't take too many risks.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
What do you think of Buffett's cash gazillions?
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Does Double Line? Do you have a sideline.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
Bet with a gazillion dollars of cash you'd like to
tell us about?
Speaker 7 (15:09):
Yeah, you know, he's he's probably happy. Cash has been
a good place to be, and you know, I think
that there's a lot of uncertainty out there. It's going
to shake the markets up as that hard data comes in,
and he's going to have some good buying opportunities.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Very good, really really wonderful to visit with. You don't
be a stranger. Thrilled that he's with us today with
Double Line.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
Just as simple is that they've had a huge impact,
and particularly you know, following the Gunlock Shnoda view has
been something a lot of people have done.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
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watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Professor Porters of the London Business School with us today
in studio. So the President speaking at ten o'clock, the
Starmer speaking a bit later. I believe on a comprehensive
trade agreement and all, and of course was sterling moving
in the Bank of England. It's for our conversation, but
(16:15):
we must start. Professor Portis with a gentleman who was
so kind to me. I can't say enough about what
Joseph Knight did for me, along with many other people.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
And all of this was wrapped.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
Around his invention of international relations and soft power.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
What is the legacy of the giant of Harvard.
Speaker 6 (16:37):
I'm afraid it looks rather shaky now. Sadly, Joe was
a wonderful person and a terrific intellect, and the soft
power concept really made headway during the day when soft
power could exercise power. Now it seems that we've shifted
away from that, and the environment, international environment is not
(17:02):
conducive to the use of soft power.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
I see a substitution here that's off the mark. I
see the chaos of Liz Trust. I see what we
see out of sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. And the fallback
is it's a Kissinger real politic. I don't buy it
for a minute. I don't see an underlying theory towards
Robert D. Kaplan and Henry Kissinger. Am I right?
Speaker 6 (17:25):
I think that is right. There's no underlying theory. But
we are in we are in chaos mode, honestly internationally
and to some extent domestically in this in this country,
in the United States, and a bit in the UK,
and some in Europe as well. So it's it's it's
(17:45):
not good. The multilateral system is coming apart, and someone
like Joe and I, for example, was a great proponent
and advocate of multilateral stability, and it's it's going Sir.
Speaker 5 (18:00):
At the London Business School, when you talk about tariffs,
when you teach your students about tariffs, how do you
what context do you put tariffs.
Speaker 6 (18:07):
In Tariffs are a legitimate trade tool in certain circumstances,
but the kind of wide ranging, blunt tariffs that that
the current administration is imposing seemed to me to be
very misguided. They will be inflationary, they will be contractionary.
(18:33):
They the funny thing is that they've been complaining. Stephen Mirron,
the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, complained that
the dollar has been too strong. Well, they've been very
successful in bringing the dollar down, haven't they, right, why
by causing some degree of chaos. So that's you know,
(18:53):
they shouldn't be complaining about that anymore. And we'll see,
we'll see how he adjusts that. This trade deal with
the UK that is supposed to be announced in just
a little while will not be any kind of comprehensive
trade deal. It'll be good for us in the UK
on cars and steel, and we have problems with both
(19:13):
those industries, but really our main exports to the United
States are services and the good side just isn't that important.
Speaker 8 (19:26):
In the UK?
Speaker 5 (19:27):
How are they viewing kind of our trade posture these days?
Are they trying you think the UK is going to
try to be accommodative, combative, what's in their best interest.
Speaker 6 (19:36):
I think Starmar is the Prime Minister. The UK is
treading a very fine line and not quite clear which
side of that line he's falling on as between the
European Union and the United States, and he's trying to
both have it both ways, good relationships with both. But
(19:57):
it's not clear that that's going to be feasible, so
he may in due course have to make some tough choices.
If he will portray this deal with the Trump is
about to announce, he will portray that as a great
step forward. As I've said, I don't think it's a
great step forward. It's useful, but the baseline, as far
as I can, as far as I understand from the press,
(20:18):
the baseline ten percent step tariff will stay spectacular.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Thursday for you, Nora Rabinian. Richard portis with US now
Professor Porters in the London Business School, Anna one, we'll
get back to the markets here in the nine o'clock
are Michael Nathanson with US on media and also Jen's
Nordwig will be with us on a currency. I'm told
doctor Wong will be in studio. Very rare for her
to break away for entourage, Professor Portis. I think for Americans,
(20:47):
if you read the British papers, it's almost a febrile
political vibration if you will, across the different parts of
Great Britain. When you look right now at what we're seeing,
which is re form, Nigel Farage coming on, what is
the character? Are they quote like Trump? Are they like
(21:07):
Barry Goldwater from another time in place? What is the
character of the Farrage?
Speaker 6 (21:12):
It's very Goldwater we could live with. The reform is
a different story. No, they're much more like Trump actually,
and they to some ext are modeling themselves on Trump
and trying to get the Trump impromatur. So I think
is it Are they dangerous in the medium term to
(21:33):
the established parties? They are very dangerous to the Conservative Party.
They are clearly pulling off a lot of Conservative Party
voters and the Conservative Party may be in terminal decline,
which would be a huge political revolution in the United
Kingdom given their major they're dominance over political activity since
the mid nineteenth century, so that would be a big thing.
(21:57):
But I somehow I think that the Farage effect and
so forth will moderate as we get closer to serious
general elections and I honestly, I cannot see and I
cannot see them holding the same, say, position in the
polls a couple of years from now, as they hold
(22:19):
out and you know, they've just taken over a number
of local councils and mayor mayor, they're going to have
to run these run these local governments and they have
no experience in doing that, and they're going.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
To look bad.
Speaker 5 (22:31):
Professor, whenever we get in a studio, we have to
ask you, what is the view of Brexit today with
a little bit of hindsight, ues, I.
Speaker 6 (22:38):
Think the view of Brexit now that is wider and
wider understanding what a disaster it has been, the economic effects,
the political effects, and reform is one in a sense,
one response in some dimensions to the to the politics
of for Exit. And it's feeding on the voters that
(23:03):
still believe that Brexit must have been a good thing,
even though they're not feeling it.
Speaker 5 (23:08):
And so when English fans go over to Paris for
soccer match, do they have to go through customs?
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Sure? Jeez, that a consumption?
Speaker 6 (23:16):
Absolutely absolutely, no, you go through passport control.
Speaker 8 (23:20):
They're just like Americans homes business.
Speaker 6 (23:22):
Yeah, it's we've lost some of our liberties. Yeah, no doubt.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Professor Porters, thank you so much. Richard Porters, a London
business school.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (23:48):
Michael Nathan's and he's a founding partner in Senior Research
chneral set Moffat, Nathan sen and Folks just one of
the leading leading voice on a global media And today
we want to really focus on this little company called Google.
Some of the kids call it Alphabet. There's some instiant
comments coming out of Apple yesterday from one of their leaders,
and it kind of goes to the core of the
(24:08):
Google story, which is search. It's the stuff we grew
up on over the last twenty years. Michael, thanks for
joining us here.
Speaker 8 (24:15):
Again.
Speaker 5 (24:15):
We had Eddie Q, Apple's senior vice president for Services,
in testimony yesterday down to Washington, talking about how they
might think about AI as a replacement for maybe some
of the traditional search that we all grew up with what.
Speaker 8 (24:31):
Does that mean for our friends at alphabet.
Speaker 9 (24:36):
And then they also went on to say that, you know,
search traffic was declining through their own Safari browser.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yep.
Speaker 9 (24:43):
What it means is that the next five years we
all will search differently, and you know it's going to
take a little bit of time, but more and more
mainstream people will use chackbots to get single answer you
answers on queries. Right, So the idea of going to
links and finding the answers as you travel the web
(25:06):
will be old school, new school is going to be
here's your answer. The question is that's for one type
of search, which is non commercial, Well what about commercial search?
But yes, the goal is to give you one answer
using an AI chatbot to give you what you want
and not have you search all over the web for
the you know, to find the information.
Speaker 5 (25:27):
So how does I mean that's the core of Google?
Speaker 8 (25:33):
How do they respond? How do they adapt?
Speaker 6 (25:35):
Okay?
Speaker 9 (25:36):
So Google has been responding, uh, and they've been doing
a very measure right. So they've introduced something called AI overviews.
So if you do search now you will see some
of the above above the links an overview session which
gives you the answer that you want, right. Their point
is in the overview section. People then tend to click
from there to a destination, and they spend more time
(26:00):
in the destination. So that gives you an overview, clearly,
But if you're interested in the history of the New
York Rangers, you will leave that overview and go to
the Ranger homepage, right, That's what they're saying. Secondly, in
shopping at e commerce, you will get the one. You know,
if I'm looking for running shoes, I would get the
(26:21):
best running shoe for me. But if I'm a retailer,
I will pay more for that query.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Right.
Speaker 9 (26:27):
I want to find my intention in that search. Right.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
So that's what's going to happen.
Speaker 3 (26:32):
So Michael, just to we got to move on to
another important topic. But the basic idea here is do
you believe Apple will lose the Google search mechanism in place?
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Right now? Yeah?
Speaker 9 (26:44):
Tom, that's you know, Craig has to sell at Apple
in part because we think when you read judgmenta's decision
and where they're going in this case, right, that looks like,
you know, Apple will not be able to get to
twenty billion of TAC they're getting now at Google.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
I know it's going to change, yeah, Michael, I mean
it was an option.
Speaker 3 (27:02):
I could look at New York Ranger highlights for the season,
or watch every episode of and Or.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
You need to explain to me how Disney spent.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
Six hundred and fifty million dollars that they admit for
two seasons of what cass and and Or is doing
and they somehow make money off my nineteen dollars a month.
I still don't get the math.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
How do they do it? Yes?
Speaker 9 (27:28):
Yes, well again, Tom, you know what if churn rate
is only one or two or three percent, not everyone's
watching and Or, and they've taken pricing on on Disney
Plus and basically people are happy with you know, they're
not cherry out of the product. It's kind of amazing
right now. Disney's an anomaly because they also have kids programming,
but you know, charity in streaming is pretty high. Look
(27:51):
at Warner's results today, you know we'd argue that it
wasn't a great result. So that's a whole another topic.
Speaker 5 (27:57):
So, Michael, as it relates to Disney, they finally turned
the corner with your clients with institutional investors out there
yesterday by saying, hey, we are solidly profitable in streaming.
We figured this stuff out.
Speaker 8 (28:12):
The parks is a great business.
Speaker 5 (28:13):
You all know, the parks is a great business, and
just don't even worry about the cable networks.
Speaker 8 (28:16):
Have they sold that story?
Speaker 9 (28:19):
Well, Paul, that is exactly the story that I would sell,
and you just framed it really well. I think people
still worried about the macro. It's hard not to when
we listened Bloomberg Radio the morning, So I think yesterday
also was a bit of a response.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
No, no, come on.
Speaker 9 (28:33):
It's it's it's you know, these are nervous times, right,
But we were so worried about the parks, and historically
parks tend to be a little bit later, you know,
in terms of canaries and coal mine. So I think
the recovery in stock yesterday was like, hey, we'ren't seeing
it yet. In Disney, we're good for another quarter. But Paul,
to your point, if they could do seven bucks of earnings,
(28:53):
which has been a mythical number at Disney for years,
and it's all parks at all streaming, the stocks are
with a lot more than a hundred bucks right now. Right,
That's what I think people are waking up.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
To Michael Nathanson.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
I'm fascinated by the execution of Brian Roberts Incorporated. I mean,
there's eight ways to go here, folks. For those of
you worldwide, NBC is splitting apart some of their Moffitt
Nathans's world into different announcements, different geographies. Lots of emotion
within the Bloomberg eleven three ye oh region, but take
(29:26):
it worldwide. Are we going to see every media company
do this, Michael Nathanson where they split apart the conglomerate.
Speaker 9 (29:35):
Tom, That's what's going to have to happen here, right
because the market doesn't pay anything anymore for cable networks,
so basically those assets will be shedded. But what's left
there needs to be consolidation. This has been a theme
we've had with you for years, so you can break
out the caven outside of comcasts. You still have a
problem with Peacock. It's not big enough, it's not global.
(29:57):
You need a partner. So I still think we have, yeah,
smaller companies with less assets, but at some point a
consolidation of what's remaining. But we're not there yet because
I don't see M and A on the you know,
on the table because of regulatory issues.
Speaker 8 (30:13):
Well, Michael, that kind of goes to it. I mean
you mentioned Warner Brothers Discovery.
Speaker 5 (30:16):
Again, their numbers were a little disappointing here today, But
you think about the Warner Brothers Discoveries that paramounts maybe
even in some pieces of Comcast. Is this an administration
that would allow this industry to to consolidate?
Speaker 8 (30:29):
Do you think?
Speaker 3 (30:31):
No?
Speaker 9 (30:31):
For those of you who are listening in your car,
I'm nodding my head, I'm shaking my head.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
No, there's no way.
Speaker 9 (30:37):
There is no way that this administration. You know, they're
they're holding up a deal with Paramount because of sixty
minutes right. There's no way they're going to allow these
companies to get healthier through consolidation.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
It's not going to happen. Michael's single best buy please
before we.
Speaker 9 (30:51):
Go, tom My single best buy. At this point in time,
we've been pushing Meta here. It's pulled back a bit.
We get you know, we've been pushing Meta. Robert who
now covers Media has a buy on Netflix. You've had
them on in Disney. So I'd say we're going with
the hands out of winning this year. That's what we're pushing.
(31:12):
But but to be fair, Meta has not been winning.
It's just I think it's a safe it's a safe
play of your large cap tech stocks. AI is seen
as a beneficiary to them, and that's a hard you know,
it's a hard ask for some of the other companies.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
Well, Lisa Matteo is a hard ask as well. Can
Mike Sullivan get it done for the New York Rangers?
Speaker 9 (31:33):
Oh, Tom, we need to change a lot of players
on that team. It's not the coach, it's the administration.
You gotta get rid of with the GM also, I
just want to go there.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Yeah, but yeah, but I'll.
Speaker 9 (31:44):
Tell you this on the question of the day, which
is alphabet. I think the market is big time wrestling
about how disruptive AI will be to these companies that
have been bulletproof for most of my career, right, Like,
that's the big change, is that finally there's a question
mark about sustainability and investment levels. And I think you've
(32:06):
got Alphabet that in that zone of like, look, there's
uncertainty here for the first time, right, And it's been
a great, great company, great stock, and now we.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
Have don't be a stranger. Michael Nathans, and thank you
so much. He co writes with Craig Moffatt Michael Nathanson
Definitive on Wall Street.
Speaker 1 (32:29):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
Lisa Newspapers, what do you have?
Speaker 10 (32:45):
Okay, we're starting with fashion. Okay, we're starting actually with thrifting.
This is shopping at secondhand stores. Yes, we go from
meg Gala and Louis Baton to thrifting. Okay, I love
doing it, my daughter loves doing it. But Business Insider says,
you know what, a lot more people are starting to
do it. Go to these thrift stores because tariffs on
Chinese goods, so it's cheaper, it's more affordable. They have
(33:07):
clearance prices.
Speaker 6 (33:08):
You have.
Speaker 10 (33:08):
The senior leader at Goodwill is saying that it usually
happens when times are tough. Right, people are watching their budgets,
so they go to these thrift stores. You have reseller
thread Up. They predict the secondhand market to reach three
hundred and fifty billion by twenty twenty eight. That's up
from one ninety seven billion and twenty twenty three. It's
all about prices and what you come forward.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
How's rent the runway and all that doing where you rent.
I never understood renting clothes, but there it is.
Speaker 10 (33:34):
It works because you don't have to kind of buy
something and then just keep it and just keep wearing
the same thing. You always get something new. You you know,
give it back and you get something new.
Speaker 5 (33:43):
A lot of the youngs that way, ladies here at
Bloomberg News, I see they do rent the runway.
Speaker 8 (33:47):
They say it, We're great, they love it.
Speaker 10 (33:49):
I haven't particularly done it, but I've heard a lot
of stories, especially if you, you know, go out to
different events like the Medcala.
Speaker 8 (33:55):
She's the one that turned on to that.
Speaker 2 (33:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (33:58):
Next, Yeah, it's a big thing.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Okay.
Speaker 10 (34:00):
We've talked about AI, right, all the different uses for AI.
Another way AI is being put to use. I saw
this in the.
Speaker 8 (34:07):
New York Times.
Speaker 10 (34:08):
It's bringing British novelist Agatha Christie back to life kind
of Okay, So she passed away in nineteen seventy six, right,
but now you have this as batar of her teaching
an online writing course with BBC Maestro. This is this
online lecture series like think masterclass, right, same thing, about
one hundred and five dollars. So how it actually worked.
(34:30):
You had this team of researchers, right, they wrote a script,
they used her writings, her archived interviews, and they made
a digital prosthetic which was made with AI and then
fitted over a real actor's performance. So this is what
they're doing the company this BBC Maestro says, you know what,
we're not trying to pretend that this is really her,
(34:53):
you know, brought to life. You know, we're just kind
of bringing this to people. But her family though, who
manages her, say it's say they're okay with it.
Speaker 8 (34:59):
They're fully on board.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
We maybe just read one of her classic books and
how she ends.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
A book like no one else there you go. I
mean that would be like the strangest thing AI.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Michael Michael Nathanson with us here in the nine o'clock.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
Oh yeah, our on Google Apple in AI. What do
you got next?
Speaker 6 (35:19):
Okay?
Speaker 8 (35:19):
Real I d day.
Speaker 10 (35:21):
Right, So we've been hearing so much about the delays editports,
especially Newark. Adding to the noise was the big switch
to real IDs that started yesterday.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
But I have one.
Speaker 8 (35:31):
You're the only one I know, but a.
Speaker 10 (35:33):
Lot of people don't. The lines of d m V
are crazy. But it turns out that first day yesterday
wasn't actually that bad. The Wallstreet Journal said they sent
a travel conomist, they test, They tested the system with
no photo. I D got through in twenty minutes flat.
Speaker 8 (35:47):
I mean, this is this is from nine to eleven.
Speaker 5 (35:49):
Yes, this, this whole move towards a different ID is
from nine eleven.
Speaker 8 (35:54):
Were finally they kept getting pushed. I mean, what's wrong
with the driver's license? Was that really the problem? Nine eleven?
I don't think.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
I don't get It's just this is.
Speaker 8 (36:04):
A solution in search of a problem. I have no
but I've got the I've got the passport. I've got
the passport.
Speaker 5 (36:10):
Not bringing my passport, I've got the Global entry card
and that's and that works okay. So but I mean,
talk about a solution in search of a problem.
Speaker 3 (36:19):
I strongly agree just sold that America needs us.
Speaker 8 (36:25):
No, it's just it's tough.
Speaker 10 (36:27):
But you have to go there with the right documentation.
Because my son got turned away three times, and.
Speaker 8 (36:32):
New Jersey's compliance with this is like the worst in
the country.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
I've heard that Texas.
Speaker 8 (36:38):
Thank you very much. DMV. Okay, get a real downer,
New Jersey. DMV. I've got a lifetime of scars.
Speaker 3 (36:49):
There is there such a thing as a Guinness Mimosa.
Speaker 2 (36:52):
There is the newspapers. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(37:18):
always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
What an honor to have with this Noural Rubini, professor.
He's not emeritus. When you're you know you travel like
he does. He's such a young kid.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
I don't know how emeritusy he is at New York University.
Of course, Chairman Rubini at Global Economics. One of the
great moments for me was with Professor Rubini and Davos
a million years ago, where he's simply outlining two thousand
and seven, eight and nine to come.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
No, I don't care.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
The reason you're here is I'm looking May thirty first, Munich,
I mean a hitter like you got to be looking
the private skybox on stub Hub inter Milan versus PSG
for twenty nine thousand dollars. You got two seats in
the private skybox.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Are you gonna roll that?
Speaker 4 (01:12):
I'll watch it on TV.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
It's very exciting. He's a diehard from his youth in
the old world inter Milan. I want to go back.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
This is really serious, folks, and it's off the radar
right now. It shouldn't be bread sets or who you
started has been on fire.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
You and Brad Setser wrote a book eleven years ago. Whatever.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Fred Berxton wrote the wonderful introduction on EM. How does
EM affect him? When I see Taiwan dollar go out
five standard deviations?
Speaker 2 (01:42):
Whatever? How is emerging a market off the radar, affected.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
By China, US, US, Canada, US EU.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
What happens to your EM? Well?
Speaker 4 (01:55):
The good news for YM is that this time around
the trade shalk have not led to a strengthening of
the dollar, but rather a weakening of the dollar. With
the dollar weekends, EM currencies tend to appreciate. It's also
true that some of these Asian nations are sitting on
trillions of dollars of US treasuries. Their fornasts are very high,
(02:18):
and there's been some diversification because we've dented, how to say,
the dollar as a major global reserve currency given our
unstable policies, so people move out of US treasure and
seldom and go back to their own local currency. There
has been some appreciation and that has taken some momentum.
There's also hope in Asia. I think that there'll be
(02:39):
trade deals and the announce reciprocal tricks are going to
be much smaller than an on April second. That's also
strengthening some of these currencies, because some of them were
weakening because of the risk of a trade war and
so on. To think is a variety of factors leading
to that happening.
Speaker 5 (02:55):
How concerned are you, if at all, about the US
economy in the face of the uncertainty of all this
trade discussion back and forth and back and forth. It
seems like consumers might be pulling back. It seems like
corporate executives are pulling back on guidance. I'm not sure
how it's gonn to impact their businesses. Do you think
that's going to affect yours economy?
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Well, there are some headwinds coming from trade and it's uncertainty,
and there are some tailwinds coming from strong cappacks, especially
aid riven and still good income growth, creation and so on.
I would say that over the medium time. Actually, I'm
quite bullish about US economy. I think that because of technology,
US potential growth by the end of the deck it
(03:36):
could be four percent, an increase of two underd business points,
and even poor trade and migration policy can reduce growth
only by fifty business points. So the ratio within the
good stuff to underd business points to the bead fifties
four to one. So I think we'll be onder verge
of a secular boom over the next few years. So
I'm quite optimistic. But then in the short rum we'll
(03:58):
have probably a nearest by your end, there is an
increasing pop.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
You mentioned a medium term. You gotta be from Europe
to mention the medium term. We don't do that in America.
My basic conundrum, Neurabini yep, is we've got the short
term reality within an American political system which you live
with President Clinton, out to the long term view of
whatever Trump economics is and maybe a more optimistic future.
(04:25):
How do we get is they would say up in
Maine or you don't know this up in Maine where
Lisa collects black flies.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
They get from here to there? How do we get
from short term to long term success?
Speaker 4 (04:37):
The way we get it is this is here there'll
be a massive slowdown of growth. As you point out,
consumer and business confidence is down, inflation is going to
go corpus y four percent by your end, and that's
going to be a significant eaton real disposal income. So
by Q four we're going to be in a near recession.
The good news is that the FAT is now credibly
committed to fight inflation. They're not cutting rates. Therefore infliction
(05:00):
expeditions are anchored. Therefore, once infliction is higher but growth
is lower and you have a beginning of increase in
unemployment rate, the fact is going to be able to
cut rates.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
The thing.
Speaker 4 (05:09):
It's going to be a short and shallow recession, maybe
a couple of quarters a Q one, Q four and
Q one of next year, and then we'll have a
strong recovery because the tailweins coming from technology are massive.
I guess is leading in all the technology of the future.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Claims are out there on plan unit labor costs and productivity,
we're elevated.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
That's what we'll talk about here. Unit labor costs jump.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
From a revised two percent up to five point seven percent.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
I got a terror regime of three percent.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
You arguably were one of the people that set up
coming off the Atlantic Charter, the global trade, the globalization
mantra of a lower terror regime. Even if we pop
from one hundred and forty five percent drama in China
and we come back down to like a blended thirteen percent,
I don't get it. Is in the gap from a
three percent blended terraff up to ten percent or thirteen
(06:02):
percent blended heraf isn't that insurmountable.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
Probably the blend is going to be more than thirteen
because my baseline is ten to fifteen percent for all
the world and sixty percent for China, So the blend
that could be in the high teens. It's a bad world.
But let's put its way. I suppose that there is
an average tariff reciprocal on Europe of ten percent as
opposed to twenty.
Speaker 6 (06:25):
Big deal.
Speaker 4 (06:26):
The Europe can go up and down ten percent in
a matter of months.
Speaker 6 (06:29):
So is it good?
Speaker 3 (06:30):
No?
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Is it terrible?
Speaker 4 (06:32):
It's going to something? Is that to destroy the world?
Probably not, because currency can move more than ten percent
in a matter of months. So, of course is a
world that is fragmented. The world is the globalized. But
if the average tarf were being say ten to fifteen
percent rather than only three, the impact on growth is
going to be how to say moderate? I would say
(06:54):
this is will be moderate. Of course, with Chinese a
different story. With China at sixty percent, we're going to
de couple from China, and the shock on their growth
and the shock around inflation is going to be significant.
So I'm more worried about the fact we're not going
to de escalate with China. You said fair extent with.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
All of your political economics neural regni. Do you believe
common sense will come to the rescue in Washington?
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Well more than common sense. In December, I said there'll
be four guard trades against stupid policy like tariffs, market discipline,
good economic advisors, fed discipline, and thin majority in Congress.
Guess what when the stock market crashed, bonding were higher,
credit spreads are higher, they always hire. They blinked and
they started to de escalate. Two In that game of
Chicken between Trump and Powell, Trump blinked because he knew
(07:43):
if it was a grund fire power, there'll be a
shock to the market. So eblink the therefore fit fed
independence was a binding constraint. Eventually, the Peter Navarro of
the world were sidelines and the scot Passings of the world.
At the upper end, good economic advisors and the fact
the team I already mean it was boxing by Ford.
That's exactly what they said.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
The running out of times I got.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
I got goosebumps because I got Nora Obini and Richard
Porters back to back. I mean talk, it's an academic
wonk fest here right now. Have you ever done a
panel with Peter Navarro?
Speaker 4 (08:15):
I've not done a panel. I my team doing the
Trump one administration in the White House a couple of times.
So it's a strange economics from.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Did you teach Navarro economics at New York University?
Speaker 2 (08:29):
No?
Speaker 4 (08:29):
No, he was at PhD at Harvard, So but we
didn't overlap. Yeah, surprising a PhD economics from Harvard. But
Steve Mian is also PhD in economics from Harvard, so
do I How does I.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Got twenty seconds? How does inter Milan be PSG? What?
How does inter Milan be PSG? I don't know you're
gonna be there. You spend twenty eight thousand dollars, Tobi,
thank you, thank for. Lisa wants to know when's a
new book out.
Speaker 4 (09:01):
I don't have any one. Mega Threats come out two
years ago, still going and all the themes of the
book Mega threats are still very important today. All the
threats I talked about are materializing.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
Okay, So Maniel, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.
Noro Rabini, I can't say enough his commitment to what
we do here on economics, finance, investment, and his international economics.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Ken Shinoda joins us right now with a pedigree at
TCW over to Double Tree, Double Line Capital.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
Thrilled to have you with us.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Kenny, You've got a different gloss from southern California than
the rest of us when you look at Port of
Los Angeles Long Beach dynamics within the finance and investment
community of LA.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
What's the tone on this trade where it's different than
New York.
Speaker 7 (10:08):
Yeah, Well, you know you're seeing a slowdown in port activity.
We saw a big pull forward of imports ahead of
the tariffs, which is one of the things that led
to the decline in GDP in the first quarter, and
we're waiting, watching to see how the hard data now
comes in. You know, sentiment has rolled over pretty dramatically
as you look at consumer and business sentiment, and I
(10:29):
think the market right now is just waiting and watching
for what the future data holds.
Speaker 5 (10:34):
You know, I'm looking at the GO function the Bloomberg
Index browser for fixed income US Mortgage backed securities have been.
Speaker 8 (10:41):
The place to be this year so far to date.
How do you guys think about that part of the business.
Speaker 7 (10:45):
Yeah, it's been a good run. You know, mortgages struggled
dramatically during the rate rise and the coming out of
QE into QT. Sometime in the middle of twenty twenty three,
at the peak of rate volatility, the MBS index was
about two hundred basis points behind the corporate bond index
annualized for five years.
Speaker 6 (11:02):
Wow.
Speaker 7 (11:03):
I mean that's hard to do in fixed income. Nobody
wants to talk to Yeah, but you know, from these
valuations where you know, we're over ninetieth percentile on the
MBS spread, and we think that's an interesting place to be,
especially when you when you're worried about kind of more
risk off potentially MBS tends to outperform corporate credit.
Speaker 8 (11:21):
So where do you guys see value today?
Speaker 5 (11:24):
I think what our market probably is characterized most is
just uncertainty out there in the marketplace, whether it's Corporate
America pulling back some of their earnings guidance, what it's
the volatility and the bond market's the equity market uncertainly
seems to be the story of the day. How does
that impact kind of fixed income and agency?
Speaker 7 (11:40):
Yeah, well, you know, fixed income finally has kind of
been a stable place with the Fed, you know, not
not cutting but done hiking. It's kind of been a
place of stability in portfolio. So I think people are
kind of understanding the value of it. Everyone's been hiding
out in T bills, So I think it's maybe time
to move out, okay of that tea bill trade. And
(12:01):
you don't have to go totally out the curve out
to the tenure, but kind of the belly of the curve,
the two to five year portion of the curve. Find
a lot of opportunities there. But as we think about
the credit landscape, you know, tariff and certain he kind
of hits the corporate market a little bit more companies.
If you go away from companies more to assets that
are backed by consumer credit, things like mortgage backed securities,
(12:23):
even credit cards, auto loans. Parts of the securitized market
like commercial mortgage backed securities, you can find sectors that
aren't as exposed to tariffs. And one could argue that
increased labor costs, increased material costs will inhibit the supply
of new homes and that'll actually be positive for home prices.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
Kischanoda with his thrill that it could be with Double
Line Capital, and of course you know it associated with
the wonderful, handsome Jeffrey Gundlock. Good morning ninety two nine
FM up in handover New Hampshire, the land of Dartmouth
where mister Gundlock matriculated years ago. Give me the line
from Double Line, and I know Jefferys really opinionated on this.
(13:05):
On private equity in private credit, I'm going to state
that's off your remit, this is not the.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Way Double Line rolls.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
But where are we ending up with private equity in
private credit?
Speaker 7 (13:17):
Well, you know, private equity is struggling to get cash
back to investors because the M and A markets kind
of slowed down. The IPO markets slowed down, and so
you're seeing a lot of a desire to sell in
the secondary market. So there's there's going to be big
growth secondaries.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
What's a percent of haircut that you guys observe.
Speaker 7 (13:39):
Oh, I mean, I think you could easily get ten
twenty percent discounts to the to the NAV on those sales.
And then the private credit markets. I think one of
the reasons we didn't go into recession in twenty twenty
three was that, you know, the old school way of
of these cycles is the FED hikes rates, the couple
of markets kind of shut down, companies can't access the
credit markets, start people off, you go into recession. Well,
(14:02):
guess what that happened. FED hiked raakes, the high heeled market,
bank loan market was effectively shut down for a little bit,
but private credit came to the rescue. I think the
challenge is going to be for investors is that we
haven't really seen the credit cycle, and at some point
in time there will be losses and we'll see how
I mean, I'm just.
Speaker 5 (14:20):
Thinking about the mortgage related opportunities in your business, and
we haven't really seen the I don't know, I haven't
seen like major blow ups in the credit side of
the mortgage business.
Speaker 8 (14:32):
I mean, banks haven't been taking huge write downs.
Speaker 5 (14:35):
I haven't seen small banks blow out their numbers terribly
because of more mortgage loans.
Speaker 8 (14:41):
Where's the pain?
Speaker 7 (14:43):
You know, the banks healed themselves after the Global financial crisis.
Speaker 8 (14:46):
They took less risks.
Speaker 7 (14:48):
The regulators have cramped down on them, so you know,
there's been some pain some banks have exposure to, you know,
commercial real estate loans. But I think we did a
good job in the US kind of making sure that
they don't take too many risks.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
What do you think of Buffett's cash gazillions?
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Does Double Line? Do you have a sideline.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
Bet with a gazillion dollars of cash you'd like to
tell us about?
Speaker 7 (15:09):
Yeah, you know, he's he's probably happy. Cash has been
a good place to be, and you know, I think
that there's a lot of uncertainty out there. It's going
to shake the markets up as that hard data comes in,
and he's going to have some good buying opportunities.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Very good, really really wonderful to visit with. You don't
be a stranger. Thrilled that he's with us today with
Double Line.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
Just as simple is that they've had a huge impact,
and particularly you know, following the Gunlock Shnoda view has
been something a lot of people have done.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Professor Porters of the London Business School with us today
in studio. So the President speaking at ten o'clock, the
Starmer speaking a bit later. I believe on a comprehensive
trade agreement and all, and of course was sterling moving
in the Bank of England. It's for our conversation, but
(16:15):
we must start. Professor Portis with a gentleman who was
so kind to me. I can't say enough about what
Joseph Knight did for me, along with many other people.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
And all of this was wrapped.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
Around his invention of international relations and soft power.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
What is the legacy of the giant of Harvard.
Speaker 6 (16:37):
I'm afraid it looks rather shaky now. Sadly, Joe was
a wonderful person and a terrific intellect, and the soft
power concept really made headway during the day when soft
power could exercise power. Now it seems that we've shifted
away from that, and the environment, international environment is not
(17:02):
conducive to the use of soft power.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
I see a substitution here that's off the mark. I
see the chaos of Liz Trust. I see what we
see out of sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. And the fallback
is it's a Kissinger real politic. I don't buy it
for a minute. I don't see an underlying theory towards
Robert D. Kaplan and Henry Kissinger. Am I right?
Speaker 6 (17:25):
I think that is right. There's no underlying theory. But
we are in we are in chaos mode, honestly internationally
and to some extent domestically in this in this country,
in the United States, and a bit in the UK,
and some in Europe as well. So it's it's it's
(17:45):
not good. The multilateral system is coming apart, and someone
like Joe and I, for example, was a great proponent
and advocate of multilateral stability, and it's it's going Sir.
Speaker 5 (18:00):
At the London Business School, when you talk about tariffs,
when you teach your students about tariffs, how do you
what context do you put tariffs.
Speaker 6 (18:07):
In Tariffs are a legitimate trade tool in certain circumstances,
but the kind of wide ranging, blunt tariffs that that
the current administration is imposing seemed to me to be
very misguided. They will be inflationary, they will be contractionary.
(18:33):
They the funny thing is that they've been complaining. Stephen Mirron,
the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, complained that
the dollar has been too strong. Well, they've been very
successful in bringing the dollar down, haven't they, right, why
by causing some degree of chaos. So that's you know,
(18:53):
they shouldn't be complaining about that anymore. And we'll see,
we'll see how he adjusts that. This trade deal with
the UK that is supposed to be announced in just
a little while will not be any kind of comprehensive
trade deal. It'll be good for us in the UK
on cars and steel, and we have problems with both
(19:13):
those industries, but really our main exports to the United
States are services and the good side just isn't that important.
Speaker 8 (19:26):
In the UK?
Speaker 5 (19:27):
How are they viewing kind of our trade posture these days?
Are they trying you think the UK is going to
try to be accommodative, combative, what's in their best interest.
Speaker 6 (19:36):
I think Starmar is the Prime Minister. The UK is
treading a very fine line and not quite clear which
side of that line he's falling on as between the
European Union and the United States, and he's trying to
both have it both ways, good relationships with both. But
(19:57):
it's not clear that that's going to be feasible, so
he may in due course have to make some tough choices.
If he will portray this deal with the Trump is
about to announce, he will portray that as a great
step forward. As I've said, I don't think it's a
great step forward. It's useful, but the baseline, as far
as I can, as far as I understand from the press,
(20:18):
the baseline ten percent step tariff will stay spectacular.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Thursday for you, Nora Rabinian. Richard portis with US now
Professor Porters in the London Business School, Anna one, we'll
get back to the markets here in the nine o'clock
are Michael Nathanson with US on media and also Jen's
Nordwig will be with us on a currency. I'm told
doctor Wong will be in studio. Very rare for her
to break away for entourage, Professor Portis. I think for Americans,
(20:47):
if you read the British papers, it's almost a febrile
political vibration if you will, across the different parts of
Great Britain. When you look right now at what we're seeing,
which is re form, Nigel Farage coming on, what is
the character? Are they quote like Trump? Are they like
(21:07):
Barry Goldwater from another time in place? What is the
character of the Farrage?
Speaker 6 (21:12):
It's very Goldwater we could live with. The reform is
a different story. No, they're much more like Trump actually,
and they to some ext are modeling themselves on Trump
and trying to get the Trump impromatur. So I think
is it Are they dangerous in the medium term to
(21:33):
the established parties? They are very dangerous to the Conservative Party.
They are clearly pulling off a lot of Conservative Party
voters and the Conservative Party may be in terminal decline,
which would be a huge political revolution in the United
Kingdom given their major they're dominance over political activity since
the mid nineteenth century, so that would be a big thing.
(21:57):
But I somehow I think that the Farage effect and
so forth will moderate as we get closer to serious
general elections and I honestly, I cannot see and I
cannot see them holding the same, say, position in the
polls a couple of years from now, as they hold
(22:19):
out and you know, they've just taken over a number
of local councils and mayor mayor, they're going to have
to run these run these local governments and they have
no experience in doing that, and they're going.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
To look bad.
Speaker 5 (22:31):
Professor, whenever we get in a studio, we have to
ask you, what is the view of Brexit today with
a little bit of hindsight, ues, I.
Speaker 6 (22:38):
Think the view of Brexit now that is wider and
wider understanding what a disaster it has been, the economic effects,
the political effects, and reform is one in a sense,
one response in some dimensions to the to the politics
of for Exit. And it's feeding on the voters that
(23:03):
still believe that Brexit must have been a good thing,
even though they're not feeling it.
Speaker 5 (23:08):
And so when English fans go over to Paris for
soccer match, do they have to go through customs?
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Sure? Jeez, that a consumption?
Speaker 6 (23:16):
Absolutely absolutely, no, you go through passport control.
Speaker 8 (23:20):
They're just like Americans homes business.
Speaker 6 (23:22):
Yeah, it's we've lost some of our liberties. Yeah, no doubt.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Professor Porters, thank you so much. Richard Porters, a London
business school.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (23:48):
Michael Nathan's and he's a founding partner in Senior Research
chneral set Moffat, Nathan sen and Folks just one of
the leading leading voice on a global media And today
we want to really focus on this little company called Google.
Some of the kids call it Alphabet. There's some instiant
comments coming out of Apple yesterday from one of their leaders,
and it kind of goes to the core of the
(24:08):
Google story, which is search. It's the stuff we grew
up on over the last twenty years. Michael, thanks for
joining us here.
Speaker 8 (24:15):
Again.
Speaker 5 (24:15):
We had Eddie Q, Apple's senior vice president for Services,
in testimony yesterday down to Washington, talking about how they
might think about AI as a replacement for maybe some
of the traditional search that we all grew up with what.
Speaker 8 (24:31):
Does that mean for our friends at alphabet.
Speaker 9 (24:36):
And then they also went on to say that, you know,
search traffic was declining through their own Safari browser.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yep.
Speaker 9 (24:43):
What it means is that the next five years we
all will search differently, and you know it's going to
take a little bit of time, but more and more
mainstream people will use chackbots to get single answer you
answers on queries. Right, So the idea of going to
links and finding the answers as you travel the web
(25:06):
will be old school, new school is going to be
here's your answer. The question is that's for one type
of search, which is non commercial, Well what about commercial search?
But yes, the goal is to give you one answer
using an AI chatbot to give you what you want
and not have you search all over the web for
the you know, to find the information.
Speaker 5 (25:27):
So how does I mean that's the core of Google?
Speaker 8 (25:33):
How do they respond? How do they adapt?
Speaker 6 (25:35):
Okay?
Speaker 9 (25:36):
So Google has been responding, uh, and they've been doing
a very measure right. So they've introduced something called AI overviews.
So if you do search now you will see some
of the above above the links an overview session which
gives you the answer that you want, right. Their point
is in the overview section. People then tend to click
from there to a destination, and they spend more time
(26:00):
in the destination. So that gives you an overview, clearly,
But if you're interested in the history of the New
York Rangers, you will leave that overview and go to
the Ranger homepage, right, That's what they're saying. Secondly, in
shopping at e commerce, you will get the one. You know,
if I'm looking for running shoes, I would get the
(26:21):
best running shoe for me. But if I'm a retailer,
I will pay more for that query.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Right.
Speaker 9 (26:27):
I want to find my intention in that search. Right.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
So that's what's going to happen.
Speaker 3 (26:32):
So Michael, just to we got to move on to
another important topic. But the basic idea here is do
you believe Apple will lose the Google search mechanism in place?
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Right now? Yeah?
Speaker 9 (26:44):
Tom, that's you know, Craig has to sell at Apple
in part because we think when you read judgmenta's decision
and where they're going in this case, right, that looks like,
you know, Apple will not be able to get to
twenty billion of TAC they're getting now at Google.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
I know it's going to change, yeah, Michael, I mean
it was an option.
Speaker 3 (27:02):
I could look at New York Ranger highlights for the season,
or watch every episode of and Or.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
You need to explain to me how Disney spent.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
Six hundred and fifty million dollars that they admit for
two seasons of what cass and and Or is doing
and they somehow make money off my nineteen dollars a month.
I still don't get the math.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
How do they do it? Yes?
Speaker 9 (27:28):
Yes, well again, Tom, you know what if churn rate
is only one or two or three percent, not everyone's
watching and Or, and they've taken pricing on on Disney
Plus and basically people are happy with you know, they're
not cherry out of the product. It's kind of amazing
right now. Disney's an anomaly because they also have kids programming,
but you know, charity in streaming is pretty high. Look
(27:51):
at Warner's results today, you know we'd argue that it
wasn't a great result. So that's a whole another topic.
Speaker 5 (27:57):
So, Michael, as it relates to Disney, they finally turned
the corner with your clients with institutional investors out there
yesterday by saying, hey, we are solidly profitable in streaming.
We figured this stuff out.
Speaker 8 (28:12):
The parks is a great business.
Speaker 5 (28:13):
You all know, the parks is a great business, and
just don't even worry about the cable networks.
Speaker 8 (28:16):
Have they sold that story?
Speaker 9 (28:19):
Well, Paul, that is exactly the story that I would sell,
and you just framed it really well. I think people
still worried about the macro. It's hard not to when
we listened Bloomberg Radio the morning, So I think yesterday
also was a bit of a response.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
No, no, come on.
Speaker 9 (28:33):
It's it's it's you know, these are nervous times, right,
But we were so worried about the parks, and historically
parks tend to be a little bit later, you know,
in terms of canaries and coal mine. So I think
the recovery in stock yesterday was like, hey, we'ren't seeing
it yet. In Disney, we're good for another quarter. But Paul,
to your point, if they could do seven bucks of earnings,
(28:53):
which has been a mythical number at Disney for years,
and it's all parks at all streaming, the stocks are
with a lot more than a hundred bucks right now. Right,
That's what I think people are waking up.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
To Michael Nathanson.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
I'm fascinated by the execution of Brian Roberts Incorporated. I mean,
there's eight ways to go here, folks. For those of
you worldwide, NBC is splitting apart some of their Moffitt
Nathans's world into different announcements, different geographies. Lots of emotion
within the Bloomberg eleven three ye oh region, but take
(29:26):
it worldwide. Are we going to see every media company
do this, Michael Nathanson where they split apart the conglomerate.
Speaker 9 (29:35):
Tom, That's what's going to have to happen here, right
because the market doesn't pay anything anymore for cable networks,
so basically those assets will be shedded. But what's left
there needs to be consolidation. This has been a theme
we've had with you for years, so you can break
out the caven outside of comcasts. You still have a
problem with Peacock. It's not big enough, it's not global.
(29:57):
You need a partner. So I still think we have, yeah,
smaller companies with less assets, but at some point a
consolidation of what's remaining. But we're not there yet because
I don't see M and A on the you know,
on the table because of regulatory issues.
Speaker 8 (30:13):
Well, Michael, that kind of goes to it. I mean
you mentioned Warner Brothers Discovery.
Speaker 5 (30:16):
Again, their numbers were a little disappointing here today, But
you think about the Warner Brothers Discoveries that paramounts maybe
even in some pieces of Comcast. Is this an administration
that would allow this industry to to consolidate?
Speaker 8 (30:29):
Do you think?
Speaker 3 (30:31):
No?
Speaker 9 (30:31):
For those of you who are listening in your car,
I'm nodding my head, I'm shaking my head.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
No, there's no way.
Speaker 9 (30:37):
There is no way that this administration. You know, they're
they're holding up a deal with Paramount because of sixty
minutes right. There's no way they're going to allow these
companies to get healthier through consolidation.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
It's not going to happen. Michael's single best buy please
before we.
Speaker 9 (30:51):
Go, tom My single best buy. At this point in time,
we've been pushing Meta here. It's pulled back a bit.
We get you know, we've been pushing Meta. Robert who
now covers Media has a buy on Netflix. You've had
them on in Disney. So I'd say we're going with
the hands out of winning this year. That's what we're pushing.
(31:12):
But but to be fair, Meta has not been winning.
It's just I think it's a safe it's a safe
play of your large cap tech stocks. AI is seen
as a beneficiary to them, and that's a hard you know,
it's a hard ask for some of the other companies.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
Well, Lisa Matteo is a hard ask as well. Can
Mike Sullivan get it done for the New York Rangers?
Speaker 9 (31:33):
Oh, Tom, we need to change a lot of players
on that team. It's not the coach, it's the administration.
You gotta get rid of with the GM also, I
just want to go there.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Yeah, but yeah, but I'll.
Speaker 9 (31:44):
Tell you this on the question of the day, which
is alphabet. I think the market is big time wrestling
about how disruptive AI will be to these companies that
have been bulletproof for most of my career, right, Like,
that's the big change, is that finally there's a question
mark about sustainability and investment levels. And I think you've
(32:06):
got Alphabet that in that zone of like, look, there's
uncertainty here for the first time, right, And it's been
a great, great company, great stock, and now we.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
Have don't be a stranger. Michael Nathans, and thank you
so much. He co writes with Craig Moffatt Michael Nathanson
Definitive on Wall Street.
Speaker 1 (32:29):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
Lisa Newspapers, what do you have?
Speaker 10 (32:45):
Okay, we're starting with fashion. Okay, we're starting actually with thrifting.
This is shopping at secondhand stores. Yes, we go from
meg Gala and Louis Baton to thrifting. Okay, I love
doing it, my daughter loves doing it. But Business Insider says,
you know what, a lot more people are starting to
do it. Go to these thrift stores because tariffs on
Chinese goods, so it's cheaper, it's more affordable. They have
(33:07):
clearance prices.
Speaker 6 (33:08):
You have.
Speaker 10 (33:08):
The senior leader at Goodwill is saying that it usually
happens when times are tough. Right, people are watching their budgets,
so they go to these thrift stores. You have reseller
thread Up. They predict the secondhand market to reach three
hundred and fifty billion by twenty twenty eight. That's up
from one ninety seven billion and twenty twenty three. It's
all about prices and what you come forward.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
How's rent the runway and all that doing where you rent.
I never understood renting clothes, but there it is.
Speaker 10 (33:34):
It works because you don't have to kind of buy
something and then just keep it and just keep wearing
the same thing. You always get something new. You you know,
give it back and you get something new.
Speaker 5 (33:43):
A lot of the youngs that way, ladies here at
Bloomberg News, I see they do rent the runway.
Speaker 8 (33:47):
They say it, We're great, they love it.
Speaker 10 (33:49):
I haven't particularly done it, but I've heard a lot
of stories, especially if you, you know, go out to
different events like the Medcala.
Speaker 8 (33:55):
She's the one that turned on to that.
Speaker 2 (33:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (33:58):
Next, Yeah, it's a big thing.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Okay.
Speaker 10 (34:00):
We've talked about AI, right, all the different uses for AI.
Another way AI is being put to use. I saw
this in the.
Speaker 8 (34:07):
New York Times.
Speaker 10 (34:08):
It's bringing British novelist Agatha Christie back to life kind
of Okay, So she passed away in nineteen seventy six, right,
but now you have this as batar of her teaching
an online writing course with BBC Maestro. This is this
online lecture series like think masterclass, right, same thing, about
one hundred and five dollars. So how it actually worked.
(34:30):
You had this team of researchers, right, they wrote a script,
they used her writings, her archived interviews, and they made
a digital prosthetic which was made with AI and then
fitted over a real actor's performance. So this is what
they're doing the company this BBC Maestro says, you know what,
we're not trying to pretend that this is really her,
(34:53):
you know, brought to life. You know, we're just kind
of bringing this to people. But her family though, who
manages her, say it's say they're okay with it.
Speaker 8 (34:59):
They're fully on board.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
We maybe just read one of her classic books and
how she ends.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
A book like no one else there you go. I
mean that would be like the strangest thing AI.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Michael Michael Nathanson with us here in the nine o'clock.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
Oh yeah, our on Google Apple in AI. What do
you got next?
Speaker 6 (35:19):
Okay?
Speaker 8 (35:19):
Real I d day.
Speaker 10 (35:21):
Right, So we've been hearing so much about the delays editports,
especially Newark. Adding to the noise was the big switch
to real IDs that started yesterday.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
But I have one.
Speaker 8 (35:31):
You're the only one I know, but a.
Speaker 10 (35:33):
Lot of people don't. The lines of d m V
are crazy. But it turns out that first day yesterday
wasn't actually that bad. The Wallstreet Journal said they sent
a travel conomist, they test, They tested the system with
no photo. I D got through in twenty minutes flat.
Speaker 8 (35:47):
I mean, this is this is from nine to eleven.
Speaker 5 (35:49):
Yes, this, this whole move towards a different ID is
from nine eleven.
Speaker 8 (35:54):
Were finally they kept getting pushed. I mean, what's wrong
with the driver's license? Was that really the problem? Nine eleven?
I don't think.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
I don't get It's just this is.
Speaker 8 (36:04):
A solution in search of a problem. I have no
but I've got the I've got the passport. I've got
the passport.
Speaker 5 (36:10):
Not bringing my passport, I've got the Global entry card
and that's and that works okay. So but I mean,
talk about a solution in search of a problem.
Speaker 3 (36:19):
I strongly agree just sold that America needs us.
Speaker 8 (36:25):
No, it's just it's tough.
Speaker 10 (36:27):
But you have to go there with the right documentation.
Because my son got turned away three times, and.
Speaker 8 (36:32):
New Jersey's compliance with this is like the worst in
the country.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
I've heard that Texas.
Speaker 8 (36:38):
Thank you very much. DMV. Okay, get a real downer,
New Jersey. DMV. I've got a lifetime of scars.
Speaker 3 (36:49):
There is there such a thing as a Guinness Mimosa.
Speaker 2 (36:52):
There is the newspapers. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(37:18):
always on the Bloomberg terminal.
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