May 4, 2025 • 19 mins
Anthony Albanese has defied the so-called “Incumbency curse” and made history with his astonishing landslide over the weekend. But, as they say in politics: That’s nice. What’s next?
Might he finally tackle big reform? Perhaps try and solve our housing crisis, which has been generations in the making? And what else might he have in his sights?
Today, chief political correspondent David Crowe, and senior economics correspondent, Shane Wright, on whether Anthony Albanese will avoid a common mistake made by previous prime ministers who’ve, like him, enjoyed a gargantuan win nobody saw coming. And what he plans to do not just in his second term as prime minister, but a third.
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S1 (00:01):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Monday,
May 5th. Anthony Albanese has defied the so-called incumbency curse
and made history with his astonishing landslide over the weekend.
(00:21):
But as they say in politics, that's nice. What's next?
Might he finally tackle big reform, perhaps try and solve
our housing crisis, which has been generations in the making?
And what else might he have in his sights? Today,
chief political correspondent David Crowe and senior economics correspondent Shane
Wright on whether Anthony Albanese will avoid a common mistake
(00:44):
made by previous prime ministers who, like him, enjoyed a
gargantuan win that nobody saw coming, and what he plans
to do not just in his second term as prime minister,
but a third. So first of all, welcome David Crowe
and Shane Wright. You've both had very, very big nights
(01:05):
and yet you're here with us. So we have to
say thank you.
S2 (01:08):
Thanks for having us, Sam. And I've got to say,
it's just so good to be spending even more quality
time with Shane here after all this election.
S3 (01:14):
And we've had to come all the way from Canberra
to be in the same room.
S2 (01:17):
To finally be together.
S1 (01:18):
Exactly. Well I'm appreciative. I'm going to launch right in
because you guys haven't had much sleep. So, Shane, right
before recording, you told me that what we saw on
Saturday was a political first in Australian history, where, of course,
we saw a first term government increase its vote share
or seat count at the end of its first term.
So were you surprised? Were you shocked.
S3 (01:37):
If I saw a unicorn on, uh, on Saint George's
Terrace in Perth? That would be about the similarity of
my surprise as seeing this result. I thought, wow, the
number of people trying to find people who said, ah, yeah,
I think Anthony Albanese will increase his vote. He'll increase
his margin into the high 80s, if maybe not 90 seats.
He'll lift the Senate vote of the Labor Labour Party.
(02:00):
Peter Dutton will lose his seat. There'll be more Nats
in seats in Victoria than there are Liberal MPs at
this stage. I would have said what colour was the
unicorn like? That's how that's how surprising this is.
S2 (02:14):
And we've all been cautious since 2019 about projecting too much.
And in a way, you've got to let the campaign
play out and not spend too much of the campaign
treating it like a race call. But our polling showed
that the Labour primary was up, and that Labour had
done really well during the campaign. And the Resolve Political
(02:36):
Monitor that we published had Labour on a two party
preferred of 53.5. You'd have to say they exceeded expectations,
including their own expectations, because some of their own people
weren't expecting it to be this good.
S1 (02:50):
Okay, so so we know this is absolutely astonishing. I
just heard this morning that Albaneses two party preferred vote
as of Sunday morning. You know, he's beaten the two
party preferred vote of Kevin Rudd. Bob Hawke, Whitlam, Chifley
like beat them all. So absolutely unbelievable.
S3 (03:07):
We are back to John Curtin's astounding victory in 1943.
So that was and that is still the the high
water mark of the ALP. What happened in 1943? Yep.
So yeah. Unicorn sighting again.
S1 (03:21):
Unicorn sighting again. Okay. So briefly, I just want to
ask each of you before we look to what this
all means for the future of labor, the future of
the country. Why? Why have we seen this unicorn yet again?
Let's go to you first.
S2 (03:33):
Well, I don't think we should overlook the fact that
Australian households have been really suffering over the cost of
living and living standards for three years. Labor saw this,
knew they had to do something about it, and prepared
what they called the forward offer, which is let's not
campaign about the last three years, because that's what Peter
Dutton did. Let's talk to Australians about what we're going
(03:55):
to do next. And that began at the beginning of
this year. They ended last year knowing that this was
going to be their plan. They invested in Medicare, in
urgent care clinics. They had some school deals with the states,
some hospital deals with the states. They did a tax
cut in the budget. Um, step by step. They told households,
(04:16):
this is what we're doing to help you. Energy bill relief,
for example. And when you look at it now, you
can see clearly they caught the coalition napping because the
coalition matched some of this. Then block the tax cuts,
which was strategically a big mistake. But labor were moving
ahead of the coalition on addressing the problems of families.
(04:36):
They also offered big commitments on the quality of government
services and of course, a lot of external events. The cyclone,
to a certain extent, but mainly Donald Trump, um, loomed
over the campaign, raised this question of global uncertainty, and
Albanese was presenting himself as a safe leader who could
(04:57):
deliver services that households needed, was acting on the cost
of living, and was the best answer in an incredibly
volatile time.
S3 (05:04):
I think, um, we've seen it that the reserve Bank
cut in interest rates in February is a sign that's important,
but I think I actually think the Liberal Party is
one of their problems was made last year, and it's
about Donald Trump. It's hard to avoid that aspect. And
we knew as soon as this is a president saying
(05:26):
I'm going to increase tariffs, he was absolutely clear about it.
And you've tied yourself not economically, but you've tied yourself
culturally to Donald Trump. And that is as our polling
has been showing for Yonks, Donald Trump does not rate
very particularly well. It was an own goal that they
should have been able to think through further out that
(05:48):
this was going to be a problem.
S1 (05:50):
And Kroie, I really want to turn to the Labour
Party now. So our colleague James Massola, he revealed the
other day that Anthony Albanese said he's already planning on
how to win a third term, that he's already begun
thinking about policies and strategies to secure that. So I'd
love your opinion. What might this mean for what he
plans for his second term? Like, does this mean that
he's likely to play it safe again with small target achievements?
(06:13):
Or could it be the opposite that, you know this
is Labor's time to to go bold?
S2 (06:18):
I think it will be about playing it safe. Um,
and I think there'll be some merit to that. I
say this as I drink a coffee from Bar Italia,
and a very strong coffee from the western inner west
of Sydney, where Anthony Albanese appeared on Sunday morning.
S1 (06:34):
That's right. So you were with him while he was
doling out ice cream, I believe.
S2 (06:36):
Yeah, because he did a he did a, a moment
on the Sunday morning after the election where he, the
cameras were there. He was having a coffee with mates,
served some ice cream at the counter. Um, didn't give
a lot away. He didn't hold a doorstop where he
waxed eloquently about his agenda for the term ahead.
S1 (06:55):
But did you think he would?
S2 (06:56):
Uh. I think he's going to take it slowly. I
think there'll be some moments in Canberra in the week
ahead where he kind of talks about what he wants
to do. But I know from talking to the people
around him that it's not about taking any Australian voters
by surprise. They have got drilled into them that they
(07:16):
are not going to do things that they didn't take
to the election. So when we talk about bold reform,
it can't mean a tax. White paper next month with
a tax reform investigation that leads to recommendations. I think
there's a possibility where some of that happens and is
kind of canvassed during the term. But I think that
(07:38):
in the same way that some of the decisions in
the first term were contingent on the election, um, the
scenario for reform is to flesh out some ideas during
the term that's just about to start, and then seek
a mandate at the subsequent election. But they would be
extremely cautious about what they're going to do because it's
(08:01):
taking on iconic importance for Anthony Albanese that he doesn't
break faith.
S3 (08:06):
We've seen what happens when a party comes out with
policy at the very last moment, and the work from
home policy, for example, from the Liberal Party, which came
from nowhere. For most people, the absolute dangers of trying
to foist something on right at the last minute.
S2 (08:22):
For instance, just quickly, if the Productivity Commission or somebody
else says, oh, and let's change negative gearing, that's something
that needs to happen. Or capital gains tax on the
family home or whatever. Well, that's a non-starter, right? So
it's just not going to fly. His position on that
is quite clear. He's made clear commitments in the election campaign.
So there are there's a reform agenda. But there are
(08:45):
some things that are clearly not on.
S3 (08:47):
Which we saw with the personal income tax cuts, which
says we're not going to change them, but then they've
come up with a way to keep them in spirit.
Everyone got a tax cut.
S4 (08:58):
So do you think this is what.
S1 (08:59):
Australians want now? Is this what they've signalled to the
Labor Party? You know, we don't want big social progress
from you. We don't want that anymore. We want what
you've offered us now. We want you in the middle.
You know, they've cemented the middle. This is what we
think Albanese will do in the next term, and maybe
even in the third.
S2 (09:14):
And they want stability because this is the the huge
outcome here. We've had a series of one term prime ministers.
Scott Morrison came in and then served one term. These
one term prime ministers haven't been able to cement reform.
Julia Gillard talked about a price on carbon. She was gone.
(09:34):
And then the reform was swept away. And Anthony Albanese
has often said you've got to cement the reform. That's
the agenda here, not just to make announcements and take
people by surprise, but to cement reform in a steady way.
So Australians voted for stability after the, you know, chopping
and changing of the last 20 years. And that's what
(09:55):
they're I think, going to get. Um, Anthony Albanese gains
great confidence out of this election result. He doesn't have
a mandate for a specific thing that he took to
the election in a dramatic way, like a GST in 1998.
But he's got this confidence. I think it'll help on
the international front with Donald Trump. Donald Trump likes winners.
(10:17):
Anthony Albanese is now a certified winner. And so he
goes into international relations and the domestic agenda with that
sense of confidence.
S3 (10:26):
I'm thinking the danger, of course, is hubris and of
because what he has done back to the unicorns. He's
got a paddock full of them. He's in terms of
what he's achieved and it's weather like. I think this
actually played into the the problem with the first term
and his speech on election night, which is the voice. Ah.
S1 (10:48):
And he made that grand promise.
S3 (10:50):
He made the grand.
S1 (10:50):
Promise.
S3 (10:51):
On which and the voters said, oh, Nick, off.
S1 (10:54):
They did.
S3 (10:55):
They. Absolutely. And so that is always I keep thinking
of 93, the 93 election which Keating won. And no
one thought that was going to happen. And that within
within 3 or 4 weeks, the true believers were having
a special dance in the Great Hall that went down
like a bucket of cold sick. And because the papers
(11:17):
at the time were saying, oh, this election result, it
gives Keating another, it gives him two terms. That's the
absolute danger for every politician. John Howard would always talk
about the dangers of being hubristic.
S1 (11:30):
But I wanted to pick up something that you just
mentioned a bit earlier, which is you said that, you know,
the lesson Albanese would have learnt here is you are
not going to spring anything new on the voters. But
what about the long standing problems that we know that
aliens far and wide have been concerned about for Yonks,
which of course, is, you know, the housing crisis, which
is decades in the making, not to mention this outstanding
(11:52):
issue of indigenous representation. Might those be picked up at
some point, or are they just going to be left
in the dust and just, you know, continue for that
frustration to be building?
S2 (12:01):
I guess they have to act on housing and they've
got to deliver. They actually put forward some really interesting
ideas on housing supply. A $10 billion. Loan and grants program,
mainly for the states, but also for private developers to
add housing for first home buyers. Now, when I talk
(12:21):
to some housing experts, these are non-aligned academics. They said
that on balance, the labor programs on housing supply were better.
I'm not saying that's the magic solution on every front,
but they've actually got some agendas here where it's all
about delivery. Now. It's about proving that they can add
(12:43):
1.2 million homes to housing supply, as they've promised, doing
everything they possibly can to do that, which also means
reducing the cost of building materials and increasing the supply
of building workers. So it's about execution. We don't need
a whole bunch of committees reviewing things. They just have
to act on what they've said they're going to do.
S1 (13:04):
Right.
S3 (13:04):
And I reckon you'll see, because we know there's about
28,000 of their social homes that are under construction or
in planning. I think I'll put money on it now.
Kroie that anyone covering the Prime Minister over the next
three years is going to spend a lot of time
at new housing sites when they're opened to reinforce that point, saying, right,
(13:26):
here are the homes they are being built.
S1 (13:28):
We're going to see you in a high vis vest,
is what I'm seeing.
S3 (13:31):
We're going to see this. And a hard hat. Yeah,
I can see that coming.
S1 (13:34):
Okay. And oh sorry.
S2 (13:36):
Mate. You know, he made a point in his election
night speech of doing a couple of really simple things
that I think are important and effective. He thanked voters.
You know, he just said a simple thank you. He said,
I won't take this for granted. Um, I'll, uh, you know,
you've put your trust in, in us. And I give
you this solemn pledge to to act on that. So
(14:00):
it's about the execution. At this point, I think they've
got an issue with spending because they've promised a lot
in the campaign. And as we've all reported on in
the budget on March 25th, they didn't really, you know,
allow any major savings. There was some redirection of funding,
but they didn't they didn't do enough work, in my view,
(14:24):
to really save money and produce a better budget. Bottom line.
They've announced a lot in the campaign that puts money
out the door. That then does mean that the agenda
in this term has got to be about being really
careful with that. They might get lucky on the commodities
side and on the revenue side and the budget bottom line,
(14:44):
and the outlook may improve over time, but there's going
to have to be, I think, a hard look at
the spending side of the budget. Um, now that they've
got so much on the table which hasn't been rolled
out yet, you know, it's yet yet to be rolled out,
for instance, on Medicare. Um, and then, um, find some
savings to help improve things over the next three years.
S1 (15:05):
So do you reckon this is going to be a
very brief honeymoon period before reality hits them in the face?
S3 (15:11):
Yes.
S2 (15:12):
Yeah, it could be because Anthony Albanese actually had quite
a long honeymoon in the polls after the 2022 election.
Then the Voice started, then the tough living standards really
started to bite and then it evaporated.
S1 (15:28):
I know we've spoken a little bit about that. You know,
they've got to be very careful. Albanese has to be
very careful not to exhibit hubris in this moment, like
we've seen with previous winners. And I wanted to ask you,
I guess, whether we actually might be finding that we're
in a period of greater kindness or an emphasis on
that in our political sphere, because we heard, I think,
a lot of humility over the last couple of days.
(15:49):
You know, we heard it from Jim Chalmers on election night.
It was looking like they were going to win and
he was very cautious about that. And then, of course,
in Anthony Albanese's acceptance speech, he made a marked point
of shushing his own supporters when they were booing Peter Dutton.
S2 (16:01):
And the interesting moment, those personal moments are really interesting,
aren't they?
S1 (16:05):
And then on Sunday morning, we've seen Albanese come out
and I think he said, I feel for Peter. So
I'm just wondering, do you think that we might see
greater kindness? You know.
S2 (16:14):
I think it's part of his brand or something that
they want to continue to be part of his message.
I talked to one of the cabinet ministers who made
a point about Anthony Albanese, in her view, actually being
a kind person. Now, I know that one of the
(16:34):
quotes in the nine debate that stood out because three
women mentioned it to me, unprompted, mentioned this quote, kindness
is not weakness. That was Anthony Albanese's quote in the
channel nine debate against Peter Dutton. And that sank in,
I think, with voters. And so I think that's going
to be part of who he is as prime minister. Now,
(16:55):
whether that is maintained is another question. Can he be
the person who turns the boats around, while also being
the prime minister, who says kindness is not weakness? Lots
of contradictions because it's not an easy job. However, um,
that is something that I think we'll see more of.
S3 (17:12):
I'm not expecting anyone getting out a guitar, sitting around
a fire and singing Kumbaya anytime. That is not the
story of Australian politics. Menzies was hard. Holt was hard.
Whitlam was hard. Hawke played hard. Keating, Howard like he
he gave across that air. But he was tough. Tough
as nails.
S2 (17:31):
And Albanese settled scores inside the labor movement because the
labor movement is a tough, tough place.
S3 (17:36):
It is so.
S2 (17:37):
And when he was asked what to name a song
and have a song played on radio. Sorry, Shane, I'm
talking over the top of you. But when he was
asked this in the recent days, he nominated the angels.
Am I ever going to see your face again? Which
has a famous refrain with a chant from the crowd
with a couple of F-bombs, and it was pretty clear
he was aiming that at Peter Dutton. So there's a,
(17:59):
you know, a mix of a bit of sympathy, but
a real hard line as well.
S3 (18:03):
More sympathy for the devil. To quote the Rolling Stones. Yeah.
But yeah, that's why no, I, I love that you
you you believe in this, Sam. And I was just
wondering a bit of kindness in the air, you know?
But once he get like, he. As he said on
Saturday night, you know, we're back to work. That's back
to work. Like he is going to continue to fight
(18:26):
what he believes in. And yeah, he he may dress
it up as kindly, but it's not.
S2 (18:32):
Mind you, if he fights and he reverts to sort
of fighting only on labor terms, to labor people, to
the labor base. He'll be making the same mistake that
Peter Dutton made. And I think given the election outcome,
he doesn't seem inclined to make Peter Dutton's mistakes.
S3 (18:48):
Yes.
S1 (18:51):
Well, gentlemen, an absolutely fascinating election. And so lucky to
have both of your viewpoints on this. So thank you
so much, Shane and David, for your time.
S3 (19:00):
Thank you Samantha.
S2 (19:01):
Thank you. Great to talk again.
S1 (19:06):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself,
Josh towers and Tammy Mills. Tom McKendrick is our head
of audio. To listen to our episodes as soon as
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(19:30):
Subscribe and to stay up to date, sign up to
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day's most important news in your inbox every morning. Links
are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks
for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Monday,
May 5th. Anthony Albanese has defied the so-called incumbency curse
and made history with his astonishing landslide over the weekend.
(00:21):
But as they say in politics, that's nice. What's next?
Might he finally tackle big reform, perhaps try and solve
our housing crisis, which has been generations in the making?
And what else might he have in his sights? Today,
chief political correspondent David Crowe and senior economics correspondent Shane
Wright on whether Anthony Albanese will avoid a common mistake
(00:44):
made by previous prime ministers who, like him, enjoyed a
gargantuan win that nobody saw coming, and what he plans
to do not just in his second term as prime minister,
but a third. So first of all, welcome David Crowe
and Shane Wright. You've both had very, very big nights
(01:05):
and yet you're here with us. So we have to
say thank you.
S2 (01:08):
Thanks for having us, Sam. And I've got to say,
it's just so good to be spending even more quality
time with Shane here after all this election.
S3 (01:14):
And we've had to come all the way from Canberra
to be in the same room.
S2 (01:17):
To finally be together.
S1 (01:18):
Exactly. Well I'm appreciative. I'm going to launch right in
because you guys haven't had much sleep. So, Shane, right
before recording, you told me that what we saw on
Saturday was a political first in Australian history, where, of course,
we saw a first term government increase its vote share
or seat count at the end of its first term.
So were you surprised? Were you shocked.
S3 (01:37):
If I saw a unicorn on, uh, on Saint George's
Terrace in Perth? That would be about the similarity of
my surprise as seeing this result. I thought, wow, the
number of people trying to find people who said, ah, yeah,
I think Anthony Albanese will increase his vote. He'll increase
his margin into the high 80s, if maybe not 90 seats.
He'll lift the Senate vote of the Labor Labour Party.
(02:00):
Peter Dutton will lose his seat. There'll be more Nats
in seats in Victoria than there are Liberal MPs at
this stage. I would have said what colour was the
unicorn like? That's how that's how surprising this is.
S2 (02:14):
And we've all been cautious since 2019 about projecting too much.
And in a way, you've got to let the campaign
play out and not spend too much of the campaign
treating it like a race call. But our polling showed
that the Labour primary was up, and that Labour had
done really well during the campaign. And the Resolve Political
(02:36):
Monitor that we published had Labour on a two party
preferred of 53.5. You'd have to say they exceeded expectations,
including their own expectations, because some of their own people
weren't expecting it to be this good.
S1 (02:50):
Okay, so so we know this is absolutely astonishing. I
just heard this morning that Albaneses two party preferred vote
as of Sunday morning. You know, he's beaten the two
party preferred vote of Kevin Rudd. Bob Hawke, Whitlam, Chifley
like beat them all. So absolutely unbelievable.
S3 (03:07):
We are back to John Curtin's astounding victory in 1943.
So that was and that is still the the high
water mark of the ALP. What happened in 1943? Yep.
So yeah. Unicorn sighting again.
S1 (03:21):
Unicorn sighting again. Okay. So briefly, I just want to
ask each of you before we look to what this
all means for the future of labor, the future of
the country. Why? Why have we seen this unicorn yet again?
Let's go to you first.
S2 (03:33):
Well, I don't think we should overlook the fact that
Australian households have been really suffering over the cost of
living and living standards for three years. Labor saw this,
knew they had to do something about it, and prepared
what they called the forward offer, which is let's not
campaign about the last three years, because that's what Peter
Dutton did. Let's talk to Australians about what we're going
(03:55):
to do next. And that began at the beginning of
this year. They ended last year knowing that this was
going to be their plan. They invested in Medicare, in
urgent care clinics. They had some school deals with the states,
some hospital deals with the states. They did a tax
cut in the budget. Um, step by step. They told households,
(04:16):
this is what we're doing to help you. Energy bill relief,
for example. And when you look at it now, you
can see clearly they caught the coalition napping because the
coalition matched some of this. Then block the tax cuts,
which was strategically a big mistake. But labor were moving
ahead of the coalition on addressing the problems of families.
(04:36):
They also offered big commitments on the quality of government
services and of course, a lot of external events. The cyclone,
to a certain extent, but mainly Donald Trump, um, loomed
over the campaign, raised this question of global uncertainty, and
Albanese was presenting himself as a safe leader who could
(04:57):
deliver services that households needed, was acting on the cost
of living, and was the best answer in an incredibly
volatile time.
S3 (05:04):
I think, um, we've seen it that the reserve Bank
cut in interest rates in February is a sign that's important,
but I think I actually think the Liberal Party is
one of their problems was made last year, and it's
about Donald Trump. It's hard to avoid that aspect. And
we knew as soon as this is a president saying
(05:26):
I'm going to increase tariffs, he was absolutely clear about it.
And you've tied yourself not economically, but you've tied yourself
culturally to Donald Trump. And that is as our polling
has been showing for Yonks, Donald Trump does not rate
very particularly well. It was an own goal that they
should have been able to think through further out that
(05:48):
this was going to be a problem.
S1 (05:50):
And Kroie, I really want to turn to the Labour
Party now. So our colleague James Massola, he revealed the
other day that Anthony Albanese said he's already planning on
how to win a third term, that he's already begun
thinking about policies and strategies to secure that. So I'd
love your opinion. What might this mean for what he
plans for his second term? Like, does this mean that
he's likely to play it safe again with small target achievements?
(06:13):
Or could it be the opposite that, you know this
is Labor's time to to go bold?
S2 (06:18):
I think it will be about playing it safe. Um,
and I think there'll be some merit to that. I
say this as I drink a coffee from Bar Italia,
and a very strong coffee from the western inner west
of Sydney, where Anthony Albanese appeared on Sunday morning.
S1 (06:34):
That's right. So you were with him while he was
doling out ice cream, I believe.
S2 (06:36):
Yeah, because he did a he did a, a moment
on the Sunday morning after the election where he, the
cameras were there. He was having a coffee with mates,
served some ice cream at the counter. Um, didn't give
a lot away. He didn't hold a doorstop where he
waxed eloquently about his agenda for the term ahead.
S1 (06:55):
But did you think he would?
S2 (06:56):
Uh. I think he's going to take it slowly. I
think there'll be some moments in Canberra in the week
ahead where he kind of talks about what he wants
to do. But I know from talking to the people
around him that it's not about taking any Australian voters
by surprise. They have got drilled into them that they
(07:16):
are not going to do things that they didn't take
to the election. So when we talk about bold reform,
it can't mean a tax. White paper next month with
a tax reform investigation that leads to recommendations. I think
there's a possibility where some of that happens and is
kind of canvassed during the term. But I think that
(07:38):
in the same way that some of the decisions in
the first term were contingent on the election, um, the
scenario for reform is to flesh out some ideas during
the term that's just about to start, and then seek
a mandate at the subsequent election. But they would be
extremely cautious about what they're going to do because it's
(08:01):
taking on iconic importance for Anthony Albanese that he doesn't
break faith.
S3 (08:06):
We've seen what happens when a party comes out with
policy at the very last moment, and the work from
home policy, for example, from the Liberal Party, which came
from nowhere. For most people, the absolute dangers of trying
to foist something on right at the last minute.
S2 (08:22):
For instance, just quickly, if the Productivity Commission or somebody
else says, oh, and let's change negative gearing, that's something
that needs to happen. Or capital gains tax on the
family home or whatever. Well, that's a non-starter, right? So
it's just not going to fly. His position on that
is quite clear. He's made clear commitments in the election campaign.
So there are there's a reform agenda. But there are
(08:45):
some things that are clearly not on.
S3 (08:47):
Which we saw with the personal income tax cuts, which
says we're not going to change them, but then they've
come up with a way to keep them in spirit.
Everyone got a tax cut.
S4 (08:58):
So do you think this is what.
S1 (08:59):
Australians want now? Is this what they've signalled to the
Labor Party? You know, we don't want big social progress
from you. We don't want that anymore. We want what
you've offered us now. We want you in the middle.
You know, they've cemented the middle. This is what we
think Albanese will do in the next term, and maybe
even in the third.
S2 (09:14):
And they want stability because this is the the huge
outcome here. We've had a series of one term prime ministers.
Scott Morrison came in and then served one term. These
one term prime ministers haven't been able to cement reform.
Julia Gillard talked about a price on carbon. She was gone.
(09:34):
And then the reform was swept away. And Anthony Albanese
has often said you've got to cement the reform. That's
the agenda here, not just to make announcements and take
people by surprise, but to cement reform in a steady way.
So Australians voted for stability after the, you know, chopping
and changing of the last 20 years. And that's what
(09:55):
they're I think, going to get. Um, Anthony Albanese gains
great confidence out of this election result. He doesn't have
a mandate for a specific thing that he took to
the election in a dramatic way, like a GST in 1998.
But he's got this confidence. I think it'll help on
the international front with Donald Trump. Donald Trump likes winners.
(10:17):
Anthony Albanese is now a certified winner. And so he
goes into international relations and the domestic agenda with that
sense of confidence.
S3 (10:26):
I'm thinking the danger, of course, is hubris and of
because what he has done back to the unicorns. He's
got a paddock full of them. He's in terms of
what he's achieved and it's weather like. I think this
actually played into the the problem with the first term
and his speech on election night, which is the voice. Ah.
S1 (10:48):
And he made that grand promise.
S3 (10:50):
He made the grand.
S1 (10:50):
Promise.
S3 (10:51):
On which and the voters said, oh, Nick, off.
S1 (10:54):
They did.
S3 (10:55):
They. Absolutely. And so that is always I keep thinking
of 93, the 93 election which Keating won. And no
one thought that was going to happen. And that within
within 3 or 4 weeks, the true believers were having
a special dance in the Great Hall that went down
like a bucket of cold sick. And because the papers
(11:17):
at the time were saying, oh, this election result, it
gives Keating another, it gives him two terms. That's the
absolute danger for every politician. John Howard would always talk
about the dangers of being hubristic.
S1 (11:30):
But I wanted to pick up something that you just
mentioned a bit earlier, which is you said that, you know,
the lesson Albanese would have learnt here is you are
not going to spring anything new on the voters. But
what about the long standing problems that we know that
aliens far and wide have been concerned about for Yonks,
which of course, is, you know, the housing crisis, which
is decades in the making, not to mention this outstanding
(11:52):
issue of indigenous representation. Might those be picked up at
some point, or are they just going to be left
in the dust and just, you know, continue for that
frustration to be building?
S2 (12:01):
I guess they have to act on housing and they've
got to deliver. They actually put forward some really interesting
ideas on housing supply. A $10 billion. Loan and grants program,
mainly for the states, but also for private developers to
add housing for first home buyers. Now, when I talk
(12:21):
to some housing experts, these are non-aligned academics. They said
that on balance, the labor programs on housing supply were better.
I'm not saying that's the magic solution on every front,
but they've actually got some agendas here where it's all
about delivery. Now. It's about proving that they can add
(12:43):
1.2 million homes to housing supply, as they've promised, doing
everything they possibly can to do that, which also means
reducing the cost of building materials and increasing the supply
of building workers. So it's about execution. We don't need
a whole bunch of committees reviewing things. They just have
to act on what they've said they're going to do.
S1 (13:04):
Right.
S3 (13:04):
And I reckon you'll see, because we know there's about
28,000 of their social homes that are under construction or
in planning. I think I'll put money on it now.
Kroie that anyone covering the Prime Minister over the next
three years is going to spend a lot of time
at new housing sites when they're opened to reinforce that point, saying, right,
(13:26):
here are the homes they are being built.
S1 (13:28):
We're going to see you in a high vis vest,
is what I'm seeing.
S3 (13:31):
We're going to see this. And a hard hat. Yeah,
I can see that coming.
S1 (13:34):
Okay. And oh sorry.
S2 (13:36):
Mate. You know, he made a point in his election
night speech of doing a couple of really simple things
that I think are important and effective. He thanked voters.
You know, he just said a simple thank you. He said,
I won't take this for granted. Um, I'll, uh, you know,
you've put your trust in, in us. And I give
you this solemn pledge to to act on that. So
(14:00):
it's about the execution. At this point, I think they've
got an issue with spending because they've promised a lot
in the campaign. And as we've all reported on in
the budget on March 25th, they didn't really, you know,
allow any major savings. There was some redirection of funding,
but they didn't they didn't do enough work, in my view,
(14:24):
to really save money and produce a better budget. Bottom line.
They've announced a lot in the campaign that puts money
out the door. That then does mean that the agenda
in this term has got to be about being really
careful with that. They might get lucky on the commodities
side and on the revenue side and the budget bottom line,
(14:44):
and the outlook may improve over time, but there's going
to have to be, I think, a hard look at
the spending side of the budget. Um, now that they've
got so much on the table which hasn't been rolled
out yet, you know, it's yet yet to be rolled out,
for instance, on Medicare. Um, and then, um, find some
savings to help improve things over the next three years.
S1 (15:05):
So do you reckon this is going to be a
very brief honeymoon period before reality hits them in the face?
S3 (15:11):
Yes.
S2 (15:12):
Yeah, it could be because Anthony Albanese actually had quite
a long honeymoon in the polls after the 2022 election.
Then the Voice started, then the tough living standards really
started to bite and then it evaporated.
S1 (15:28):
I know we've spoken a little bit about that. You know,
they've got to be very careful. Albanese has to be
very careful not to exhibit hubris in this moment, like
we've seen with previous winners. And I wanted to ask you,
I guess, whether we actually might be finding that we're
in a period of greater kindness or an emphasis on
that in our political sphere, because we heard, I think,
a lot of humility over the last couple of days.
(15:49):
You know, we heard it from Jim Chalmers on election night.
It was looking like they were going to win and
he was very cautious about that. And then, of course,
in Anthony Albanese's acceptance speech, he made a marked point
of shushing his own supporters when they were booing Peter Dutton.
S2 (16:01):
And the interesting moment, those personal moments are really interesting,
aren't they?
S1 (16:05):
And then on Sunday morning, we've seen Albanese come out
and I think he said, I feel for Peter. So
I'm just wondering, do you think that we might see
greater kindness? You know.
S2 (16:14):
I think it's part of his brand or something that
they want to continue to be part of his message.
I talked to one of the cabinet ministers who made
a point about Anthony Albanese, in her view, actually being
a kind person. Now, I know that one of the
(16:34):
quotes in the nine debate that stood out because three
women mentioned it to me, unprompted, mentioned this quote, kindness
is not weakness. That was Anthony Albanese's quote in the
channel nine debate against Peter Dutton. And that sank in,
I think, with voters. And so I think that's going
to be part of who he is as prime minister. Now,
(16:55):
whether that is maintained is another question. Can he be
the person who turns the boats around, while also being
the prime minister, who says kindness is not weakness? Lots
of contradictions because it's not an easy job. However, um,
that is something that I think we'll see more of.
S3 (17:12):
I'm not expecting anyone getting out a guitar, sitting around
a fire and singing Kumbaya anytime. That is not the
story of Australian politics. Menzies was hard. Holt was hard.
Whitlam was hard. Hawke played hard. Keating, Howard like he
he gave across that air. But he was tough. Tough
as nails.
S2 (17:31):
And Albanese settled scores inside the labor movement because the
labor movement is a tough, tough place.
S3 (17:36):
It is so.
S2 (17:37):
And when he was asked what to name a song
and have a song played on radio. Sorry, Shane, I'm
talking over the top of you. But when he was
asked this in the recent days, he nominated the angels.
Am I ever going to see your face again? Which
has a famous refrain with a chant from the crowd
with a couple of F-bombs, and it was pretty clear
he was aiming that at Peter Dutton. So there's a,
(17:59):
you know, a mix of a bit of sympathy, but
a real hard line as well.
S3 (18:03):
More sympathy for the devil. To quote the Rolling Stones. Yeah.
But yeah, that's why no, I, I love that you
you you believe in this, Sam. And I was just
wondering a bit of kindness in the air, you know?
But once he get like, he. As he said on
Saturday night, you know, we're back to work. That's back
to work. Like he is going to continue to fight
(18:26):
what he believes in. And yeah, he he may dress
it up as kindly, but it's not.
S2 (18:32):
Mind you, if he fights and he reverts to sort
of fighting only on labor terms, to labor people, to
the labor base. He'll be making the same mistake that
Peter Dutton made. And I think given the election outcome,
he doesn't seem inclined to make Peter Dutton's mistakes.
S3 (18:48):
Yes.
S1 (18:51):
Well, gentlemen, an absolutely fascinating election. And so lucky to
have both of your viewpoints on this. So thank you
so much, Shane and David, for your time.
S3 (19:00):
Thank you Samantha.
S2 (19:01):
Thank you. Great to talk again.
S1 (19:06):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself,
Josh towers and Tammy Mills. Tom McKendrick is our head
of audio. To listen to our episodes as soon as
they drop, follow the Morning Edition on Apple, Spotify, or
wherever you listen to podcasts. Our newsrooms are powered by subscriptions,
so to support independent journalism, visit The Age or smh.com.au.
(19:30):
Subscribe and to stay up to date, sign up to
our Morning Edition newsletter to receive a summary of the
day's most important news in your inbox every morning. Links
are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks
for listening.
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