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June 18, 2025 17 mins

Israel and Iran continue to exchange missile fire in the Middle East’s latest battleground - and the world awaits a decision from Donald Trump.

The US president has long sworn off getting involved in wars like these, indeed, he’s touted himself as the peacemaker. 

But now he faces a critical decision, and a key test for his presidency. Meanwhile, Trump told leaders at the G7 summit that he’d been open involving Russian president Vladimir Putin as a mediator.

Today, political and international editor Peter Hartcher on what Putin’s growing influence over Trump means for foreign policy.

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Episode Transcript

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S1 (00:01):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Chris Payne, filling in
for Samantha Salinger. Morris. It's Wednesday, June 18th. Israel and
Iran continue to exchange missile fire in the Middle East's
latest battleground, and the world awaits a decision from Donald Trump.

(00:26):
The US president has long sworn off getting involved in
wars like these. Indeed, he's touted himself as the world's peacemaker.
But now he faces a critical decision and a key
test for his presidency. Meanwhile, Trump told leaders at the
G7 summit that he'd be open to involving Russian President

(00:48):
Vladimir Putin as a mediator. Today, political and international editor
Peter Hartcher on what Putin's growing influence over Trump means
for foreign policy. Peter, the Iran-israel war has certainly escalated
over the past 24 hours. Can you please talk us

(01:11):
through the latest?

S2 (01:12):
Well, the big picture is that the longstanding Israeli policy
towards Iran has been what they call mowing the lawn,
or mowing the grass or cutting the grass. And that
means that knowing that the Iranians have got a long
term plan to develop nuclear weapons and to wipe Israel
off the face of the map, which is publicly stated,

(01:34):
long standing goal and main purpose of the ayatollahs regime.
Mowing the grass simply meant going in with the occasional
assassination of nuclear scientists, wiping out particular nuclear capabilities when
they got to a critical point, and then withdrawing. But
what's happened now is that they've decided Netanyahu has decided

(01:54):
that mowing the lawn isn't enough, that the lawn is
in the process of growing into a jungle, that the
jungle has become too dangerous to tolerate, and he's going
to wipe out the entire, uproot the entire jungle and
root out the ayatollahs and their regime. That's the ultimate
aim here.

S3 (02:11):
Tehran lights up as Israel makes its move.

S4 (02:24):
Israel's latest attack, coming as a news anchor, delivered a
live report on Iran's state run TV. This is what's
left of Tehran's broadcasting corporation. Reportedly, the strike killed at
least 26 people over Tel Aviv. Sirens sounding as a
barrage rains down. Many missiles were intercepted, but the damage

(02:50):
is still significant. This the latest in a series of
Of retaliatory strikes after Israel launched a surprise assault on Friday.
It says it was targeting Iran's nuclear program and government facilities.

S2 (03:11):
There are three critical nuclear facilities inside Iran. First is
the Natanz complex. It's an underground enrichment complex. The Israelis
have hit that pretty hard. We don't know what the
damage is. We know that the entrances have been blocked,
but we don't know what the under ground damage is.
Second is Fordow. The Fordow complex is the most impenetrable

(03:35):
because it's buried deep beneath a mountain. We don't have
complete intelligence publicly, but it's at least half a kilometer
under the surface of a mountain, multi-layered, where they have
centrifuges purifying intensifying uranium and building nuclear bombs. They've had
a crack at that. An initial crack at that. They

(03:55):
the Israelis don't have the capacity, in all likelihood, to
destroy the entire thing. Only the US is thought to
have the very heavy £30,000 ordnance which only US bombers
can carry to be able to do that. So that's
been described as the be all and end all of
the nuclear program of the Iranians. Now, that's going to

(04:16):
take much more than we've seen so far. And the third, uh,
the third installation is one which is under construction, and
we don't know how many other installations there are that
we don't know about. So this is this is an
unfolding picture. It's the early days and beyond the nuclear

(04:36):
establishment and the nuclear program. Netanyahu has signaled that he
is going after the regime and wants the entire regime
and the republic to collapse.

S1 (04:47):
So the big question then is what is America? And
specifically Donald Trump's role in all of this as we
record this middle of the day Wednesday Australian time. The
US has not been involved in any strikes thus far.
What has Trump saying? He's long sworn himself against wars
like this. He's also touted himself as the peacemaker. What

(05:09):
kind of test is this for Trump? What will he do?

S2 (05:12):
It's a huge test for Trump. Until Thursday last week,
he was presiding over negotiations with the Iranians to try
to get them to cease and desist their nuclear program
and telling Netanyahu that he did not want an Israeli
attack right up until the hour before the attack occurred.

(05:34):
So he did not. This is a war he didn't want.
And as you say, Chris, he sees himself as a peacemaker.
He's made no secret that he wants to get a
Nobel Peace Prize. He promised to end the war in
Ukraine between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours. Four and
a bit months later, that's raging and has escalated. He
promised to fix the Gaza war. No. No dice. And now,

(05:59):
while he's trying to come to a nuclear arrangement with Iran,
a new war has broken out there as well. So
that's three strikes and you're out. So his peacemaker credentials
are looking pretty tatty. Now, what's he going to do
with this war underway? He's got conflicting political demands in
his own constituency, the MAGA Republican National security constituencies in

(06:24):
the US. He's got the restrainers and the prioritizes. And
that's a big chunk of the MAGA movement, the MAGA policy,
military impulse. Their thinking is the US should just simply
keep out of the Middle East altogether. It used to
be important. We used to need the oil. We don't

(06:45):
now let it, let it go, let it rip. Let
the Israelis tear the Iranians to pieces, and the Iranians
do what they can. Then you've got the internationalists and
the traditional Republicans who say, no, this is a critical
area of the world. We must protect Israel. We must
protect our oil access, and we must do what we
can to limit the power of the Iranian regime, but

(07:08):
without causing a major world war. So these are these
are some of the, the constraints and the, the competing
interests that, that he's trying to mediate between. And he
doesn't know what to do because his whole plan was
just stop any wars. Beyond that, now that the war
is raging, he's showing increased sympathy and support for Netanyahu

(07:30):
and Israel, which is an important constituency for the entire US,
but also for a lot of Republicans. Um, but he's
not sure whether the US should get involved in striking
his positioning military assets. He's putting another aircraft carrier into
the region. He's putting a mid-air refueling aircraft into the region.
He's giving the US options to join in the attack

(07:51):
on Iran. He's calling on Iran for unconditional surrender. And
yet he's he's hoping for a quick end and a
limit to the bloodshed. That is not what Netanyahu intends.
Who's going to win? Well, so far, Netanyahu is winning
this argument. What does Trump do, on the other hand?
Another pressure on him in favor of trying to protect

(08:14):
Iran is is Russia. So Russia is the traditional sponsor
of the Iranian regime. It's it's it's only important great
power supporter. And Vladimir Putin has been vocally condemning the
Israeli attack supporting Iran. And on the phone to Trump

(08:35):
saying you've got to stop the fighting. You've got to
protect Iran and hell. Um, can I do anything to help?

S1 (08:42):
Well, let me ask you more about this, because Trump
has been pretty clear about his feelings about Vladimir Putin,
but he's far from a fair and objective referee in
all of this, wouldn't you say?

S2 (08:53):
Oh, yes. Yes, he's absolutely, uh, he's got a dog
in the fight and that dog is Iran. And he
wants that dog either to be if it's in a
losing position left alone, or if it's in a strong position,
he wants it to thrive. It's the biggest entree point
that Russia has into the Middle East at the moment.

(09:14):
It did have Syria, but Bashar al Assad's now gone
in recent months. So now there's only Iran. Iran has
been important to Russia for many years. Russia has given
it air defense systems. It's given it missiles in return.
The Iranians during this war that Putin's having with Ukrainians,

(09:34):
Iran has been shipping tens of thousands of drones, which
the Russians have been using to attack Ukraine. They put
payloads of explosives on them. The Iranians have even built
a factory in Russia so that Russia can make its
own drones for the war. And in return, we suspect,

(09:56):
but don't have definitive proof that the Russians have been
helping the Iranians with their nuclear development. Now, we all
know that Donald Trump has long had a soft spot
for Vladimir Putin. Now Vladimir Putin is saying to him, look,
you know, you're you're siding with the with the Israelis.
But listen, mate, you know, it's better that this war

(10:18):
doesn't occur at all. You've promised to bring peace. And
let me, Vladimir Putin, come in and help you as
an honest broker in this situation. And Donald Trump, because
of his long relationship and uncanny and bizarre and inexplicable, um,
relationship with Putin and the way Putin seems to have
a Rasputin like mystical influence over Trump. Trump has said, oh, well,

(10:44):
you want to be you want to be a peace mediator.
I'm open to that idea. And Trump has said publicly
Putin is ready to do it and I'm open to it. Now,
if he brings Putin in to do what he couldn't,
which was to mediate some sort of peace. That would
be a first. The there's never been a case where

(11:05):
a US president has delegated or outsourced or subcontracted to
a traditional American enemy, the mediation or negotiation over a
critical American national interest, which in this case is the
Middle East. And yet, Trump seems to be on the threshold,
on the brink of allowing exactly that to happen.

S1 (11:34):
We'll be right back. So why, then, if it's unprecedented
that America has never outsourced this kind of diplomacy and that,
as you wrote, Putin may not serve Trump's interests above
his own. Why the leap of faith?

S2 (11:52):
Yes, it is truly bizarre. It is truly inexplicable. Only
Trump would do that. Is it because he's naive about
Putin's intentions? We don't know. Is he? Does he have
some sort of long running bromance with Putin? Absolutely he does.

(12:15):
We know that even when Trump was out of power,
the two of them are Putin and Trump held phone calls,
long phone calls at least seven times when Trump wasn't
even in a position of power. And as soon as
Trump is in power, he does everything he can to
gratify the interests of Russia and Putin. In fact, in
his time in this term, I've talked to experts like

(12:37):
Peter Tesch, who's a who was a long serving Australian
diplomat and military strategist, former ambassador to Moscow. He hasn't
been able to identify a single Russian interest that has
suffered in any way from the Trump presidency. For example,
all the rest of the world gets hit with tariffs,
Trump's tariffs. Russia got an exemption. There's no good explanation

(12:59):
for this, Chris.

S1 (13:00):
This is another good example of this kind of gushing
relationship between Trump and Putin. He softened pressure on Putin
when it comes to Ukraine. He was even complaining about
sanctions being too expensive at the dinner at G-7 before
he had to rush back. And now the Middle East
is there, conveniently for Putin, yet another distraction.

S2 (13:21):
Yeah. And at that G7 meeting, Trump's first and major
point of impact was to complain. Why isn't Vladimir Putin here?
Why isn't my friend Vladimir here? This is terrible. He
won't talk to anyone but me, and he should be here.

S5 (13:34):
The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and
a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in.
And I would say that that was a mistake, because
I think you wouldn't have a war right now if
you had Russia in and you would.

S2 (13:48):
This is again showing that he puts Vladimir Putin. Putin's
interests ahead of his traditional allies in the G7, the Brits,
the Europeans, the Canadians. Trump puts Putin ahead of them.
It's it really is remarkable. And the rest of them
just shrug and hope. It'll hope it'll just fade away.
And so yeah, as long as Trump is now consumed

(14:09):
by the war between Israel and Iran, he's not paying
any attention. No attempt to mediate over the Ukraine-russia War.
And honestly, it looks as if he's walked away from
trying to solve that. He demanded that both sides agree
to a 30 day ceasefire. Zelensky agreed to the ceasefire

(14:30):
on the spot. Putin did not, and Trump has huffed
and puffed and threatened to put sanctions on Russia as
a result. But he hasn't carried through. He's put no pressure,
zero pressure on Putin. And it looks like Putin now
just gets what he wants in the war against Ukraine.

S1 (14:47):
I mean, indeed, you've written that Trump has all but
handed Putin a spot in his administration. What does this
ever increasing coziness, I suppose, between these two superpowers? What
does it mean for foreign policy?

S2 (15:00):
So Trump has gutted the National Security Council in his
white House of expertise. But instead, his primary source of
advice on national affairs, national strategy and war and peace
seems to be Putin. So I thought maybe he could
be nominated as the de facto national security advisor of
the US. From Russia with love, Vladimir Putin. What it

(15:25):
means for foreign policy broadly, and in particular for Australia,
is that no country can be sure that the traditional
US interests and relationships will take precedence over Vladimir Putin's.
That puts an extra element of risk into any dealing
that other countries have with the US now. In the
case of Australia, we're a country that's still trying to

(15:47):
work out what relationship this country can continue to have
with Donald Trump. It's very uncertain. The clearer picture that
we get of his relationship with Putin tells us that
we cannot trust that he will only have us and
Australian interests at heart in any dealings, that if there's

(16:09):
a Putin input, it could affect US policy on Australia,
on the alliance. And this is obviously deeply troubling, because
Putin has nothing but enmity and ill will towards towards
Australian interests. This is a big new risk factor in
our relationship with the US.

S1 (16:27):
Peter, this is fast moving. It's certainly complex. So I
really appreciate your time and for walking us through this.

S2 (16:33):
Absolute pleasure Chris.

S1 (16:46):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Kai
Wong and Julia Katzel. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills.
Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to
our episodes as soon as they drop, follow the Morning
Edition on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

(17:07):
Our newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, so to support our
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up to date. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter
to receive a summary of the day's most important news
in your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes.

(17:31):
I'm Chris Payne. This is Morning edition. Thanks for listening.
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