November 4, 2025 • 19 mins
Asian nations are walking a tightrope between Washington and Beijing – juggling trade, tech and security pressures as the heavyweights vie for influence.
On today’s Big Take Asia Podcast, host K. Oanh Ha speaks with Adam Farrar, Bloomberg’s senior geoeconomics analyst for Asia Pacific, to unpack what may have been overlooked at the APEC summit as the Xi-Trump show came to town.
Read more: Xi Calls for Stable Supply Chains After Sealing Trump Truce
Further listening: Trump Got an ‘Amazing’ Meeting. China Got Much-Needed Time
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This past weekend, the
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, better known as APEX, wrapped
up in Kyoungju, South Korea. The annual gathering, which began
(00:20):
as a way to promote free trade and cooperation across
Asia Pacific, was largely overshadowed by ongoing trade tensions between
its two biggest member economies, the US and China.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I think going into this we had a distinct impression
that this was going to be the Trump show, even
though he actually didn't intend to actually go to the
meetings at all.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Adam Fair is Bloomberg's senior geoeconomics analyst for Asia Pacific.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
His meetings occurred before the official summit began, and yet
his presence and US policy kind of loomed large over
the entire meeting. Despite President Ches's opportunity, which he did
take advantage of to kind of rian placed China at
the center of a more stable global trade arrangement, President
Trump and the United States and the tariff conversation kind
(01:08):
of remained at the center of all discussions.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
During his five day tour of Asia, President Trump stopped
in Malaysia and Japan, before a World Win one day
visit to South Korea. He held several high profile bilateral meetings,
including a summit with President She. So many right the whole,
so many meetings great for our country with literally hundreds
of billions trillions of dollars come into a country. As
(01:34):
Air Force one lifted off from the city of Busan,
the sleek Hong Chi limo carrying President She rolled in
and with Trump gone, she stepped into the spotlight.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
President She being there the whole time.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
The fact that China will host the next APEC summit
gave him an opportunity to kind of continue to hammer
the message that China is the more stable and better
partner for countries looking for clear economic gains in the
near future, and that unlike the United States, they will
follow through their commitments. They can be seen as reliable.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today, on the
show Beyond the Trump, she spotlight what got overshadowed at
APEX and as countries try to balance open trade with
(02:39):
national security. How are they navigating rising tensions between the
world's two largest economies without picking sides. The Trump she
meeting last week dominated headlines and overshadowed the APEC summit
that followed. Bloomberg's Adam Ferrer says, it's a reflection of
(03:02):
a broader shift in how these multilateral forums are perceived.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
The reality is that APEC and these other large multilateral forums,
I think of the G twenty as well, have been
losing significance as a major mover of policy. And that's
not just a symptem of the Trump administration. It's been
happening for the better part of the past decade, as
we've seen divergence in the objectives and policy goals of
(03:27):
the largest participants.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
APEC has nearly four decades of history. It's twenty one
member economies span the Pacific Rim and include global powerhouses
like the US, China, Japan, and Australia. Together, they account
for nearly sixty percent of global GDP and half of
world trade. And while apex's founding mission breaking down trade
barriers and promoting economic cooperation is increasingly challenged, Adam says
(03:56):
the forum still plays an important role.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
The value seems to really be in the convening function, right,
bringing together leaders from a very diverse set of economic
powers and providing an avenue for them to engage with
key market leaders in business as well, that you don't
get to do every day, and particularly for some of
the smaller economies, there's nothing like it. APEX also unique
(04:19):
in that Taiwan, as a major economy, is invited, and
while it is not represented at a leader level, it
is there and has the opportunity to hold many bilateral
meetings with senior officials and leaders across the world, which
is incredibly important for it.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
During his Asia tour, President Trump struck a warm tone
with US allies and partners. He danced with performers at
a welcome ceremony in Malaysia and wrapped his arm around
Japan's Prime Minister Senai Takichi during his speech. That was
a stark contrast to months of tariff threats, rusing trade
battles and America First rhetoric.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I think there's deep scars with many US allies, and
that includes NATO, that includes Japan and Korea with how
they've been treated in this trade war. Korea is a
good example, Korea maintained not only an alliance with the
United States, but a free trade agreement with the United States,
and what they found when they entered these negotiations with
the White House was that was worth basically nothing. But
(05:18):
at the same time, now sitting here after APEC, after
President Trump and President ejmy Jung sat down and actually
agreed to finalize their trade agreement, you do land in
a slightly different place than I think we expected, which
is that President Trump has actually elevated Korea and Japan
and the EU to some extent as preferred partners in trade.
(05:40):
But not only just in trade, but in terms of
bringing the key industries and investment into the United States
that's necessary for his vision of reindustrializing and bringing manufacturing
back in those key industries that are going to determine
the future for the United States.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
It wasn't that long ago, just in September, really, when
the US raided a Hyunda plant in Georgia and they
detained hundreds of CREA nationals. It was a deeply embarrassing
episode for Korea. Then, of course Trump was in Korea
making nice. What kind of messaging does that send to
other Asian countries.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
So the raid at the Hyndei facility, I think caught
everyone off guard, and particularly those in Soul in regard
to how they would be treated by the United States,
and not only just how their nationals would be treated,
but how the individuals they are sending to the United
States session do the work to build out these massive investments.
The fact that even they are not immune from the
(06:35):
other priorities of the administration, which is to push back
on immigration or a legal immigration as they see it,
you know, it raised real questions about what the intent
is that the United States and what their willingness is
to actually prioritize these partnerships. And so while I think
Trump's demeanor and approach to partners and allies on this
series of meetings certainly is helpful to address the problem
(06:59):
and remind them that the US does see them as important,
it certainly doesn't solve it.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Then there's Trump's decision to skip the APEX summit altogether
and meet with key Asian leaders one on one instead.
Adam says it may not be a deliberate snub, but
the message it sent was clear.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
I think the staff would say that folks should be
very happy that Trump showed up at all, and that
his arrival in South Korea, the fact that actually he
also went to Malaysia some element of the East Asia
Summit were a better than expected deliverable from President Trump
in terms of his willingness to travel a very long way,
and it is having just done those flights.
Speaker 3 (07:40):
It is a very long way to meet with leaders.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
But I think the reality is it does align very
well with how Trump has been approaching his engagements globally,
both in the White House and abroad.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
Is his objectives come first.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Now, Adam, you've served across both of Biden and Trump administrations,
how would you characterize the US economic and diplomatic strategy
here in Asia. I mean, it seems as if it's
changing the region and diplomacy and relationships dramatically.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Well, the last part is certainly true. I think it
is helpful though, to remind ourselves that trade has been
an increasingly complicated issue for US efforts and diplomatic efforts
in the Indo Pacific. And that's not new to the
Trump administration, even in the Biden administration, which set out
a very clear policy objective in the New Pacific, basically
putting allies and partners first, seeking to compete with China
(08:33):
where it was necessary, but cooperate where possible. Even there
because of the kind of this shifting and growing economic
nationalism that we saw in the United States and across
the globe, Biden administration was unable to move forward with
any substantive trade agenda. Throughout all four years of its administration.
There were efforts, lots of efforts from countries in the
(08:54):
region to try and convince the United States to rejoin
the Transpecific Partnership, a trading agree that had actually been
built very much by the Obama administration, but that was
completely off the table. The big difference though, that we
see this time around with President Trump. He views the
entire world and this key part of the world through
(09:14):
one lens and one lens alone, and that is trade,
and not only trade overall, but really through trade balance, right,
and only goods, not goods and services, where the United
States is far more competitive. And so with that he's
kind of put aside the history, both good and bad,
with countries.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
In the region.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
And as he said multiple times, he asked them for
their best offer. Right, give me your best offer, and
we will send back a deal for you. To sign
and that's been his approach. And in some ways that's
understandable for some leaders in the region who kind of
get the desire for the United States to take a
more nationalistic approach similar to some of them, But at
the same time, it's antithetical to how the United States
(09:56):
has approached its alliance relationships in the region for the
past decade, where it saw a broader strategic importance to
the relationship even when there were maybe negative or unequal
parts of the relationship, potentially on trade and on economics.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
After the break with Trump gone, China steps in. How
are smaller economies responding and what is China's growing influence
mean for the region's future. That's next Donald Trump back
(10:38):
in DC.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
It's she's imping stage right now.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
He's going to be meeting with Mark Karni of Canada,
meeting with Sanai Takaiji of Japan.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
He'll be giving a speech over the weekend. President. She
took center stage at the APEX summit, appearing in nearly
every photo and headline. After holding talks with regional leaders
and delivering a speech calling for stables, supply chains, and
open trade. She arrived at the welcome dinner shoulder to
shoulder with South Korean President Eugenie, ladies and gentlemen, the
(11:11):
leaders and spouses on the twenty one AID pack Nember Economy.
The display of camaraderie was part of She's effort to
position himself as a champion of free trade and regional cooperation.
Bloomberg's Adam Ferrer says this comes in the wake of
Trump's latest trade war, which is hit manufacturing economies like Vietnam, Malaysia,
(11:32):
and Indonesia that rely heavily on the US market. But
China's pitch isn't without its own complications.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
While China, I think, has made hay of this situation,
has tried to demonstrate themselves, as we've talked about already,
as a more stable and reliable partner, they also come
with a huge amount of baggage to start with. Right
we saw recently with these threats on export controls that
China is also willing to take extreme actions, extra territorial
action to try and limit the flow of goods that
(12:02):
they don't want moving to any individual company or country,
depending on their own interests and their ability to leverage
that if they want, And that's a real threat for
countries and companies that produce electronics around the world, and
particularly in Southeast Asia. Simultaneously, China's manufacturing power and the
size of their exports are a real threat to domestic
(12:23):
industry throughout the region, not only prior to this trade war,
but now with the United States erecting this trade wall,
we are seeing the diversion of goods, and while we
can't be certain that it is all diversion, export figures
from China in the last quarter showed a twenty seven
percent drop in exports to the United States, but somehow
still an eight percent increase in exports overall, and that
(12:44):
means much more goods are flowing to Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa,
and for that to be pulled into the market, someone
else has to lose. And so the question becomes how
long can that go on before these local markets have
to put up their own trade barriers to try and
limit China's role and access to the region.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
And I think to that point, many APEC countries are
caught between this need to maintain open trade and also
feeling the pressure to safeguard national security. How do you
see countries like South Korea, like Vietnam, or Australia navigating
these tensions, especially as they try to avoid choosing sides
right between the US and China.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
To start with, I think there is deep confusion among
leaders around the world, and particularly the Asia Pacific, about
what US priorities on national security really are right now.
What is the US policy towards China, What is the
US policy in the Indo Pacific. We don't even have
the formal policy documents yet, right we don't have the
National Security Strategy or the National Defense Strategy, which gives
some hints of what the United States is trying to do.
(13:46):
Because at the end of the day, it really seems
that President Trump is viewing the world through the same lens.
It's not Asia first, it's trade first, and it's his
version of trade. And so with that, we've seen big
changes on this question of national security, particularly when it
comes to things like export controls. These are tools that
were put in place to restrict the flow of advanced technology,
(14:07):
particularly to China, under the guides of national security and therefore,
in principle, as the United States had said in the
first trun administration and did say in the Biden administration,
they're non negotiable, right These are things that the United
States has to do for its own defense, and that
it expects partners and allies to do if they wish
to be part of the broader US tech ecosystem. But
(14:29):
here in the trade negotiations with China, we saw the
United States theoretically willing to back away from entity listings
and lots of conversations at senior levels over the past
several months about not moving forward with new export controls
to limit damage in the broader trade relationship.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
She held mylateral meetings with Japan's new leaders in Iakichi
and Kennedy's Prime minister. What do you think China was
trying to signal through these engagements?
Speaker 2 (14:55):
So at the top line, I think China saw an
opportunity again to demonstrate that it is a more stable
and different type of partner than the United States is
presenting itself as now in twenty twenty five. But that said,
I think particularly Canada and Japan, each one is unique
in their bilateral relationship. President she did actually meet with
Prime Minister Ishiba last year at APEC, and this year
(15:18):
we had this unique opportunity of Takaichi, the new Japanese
Prime Minister, having just been sworn in, and so meeting
with her was not unusual, And the fact is that
it was an incredibly frosty meeting from all observations, and
I think we didn't see any signs that the relationship
is moving in a particularly new or positive direction between
the two and the messaging from She and Takaichi seemed
(15:41):
to demonstrate that, with She kind of emphasizing that Japan
needed to take the correct approach to dealing with China
to recognize their power and interests, and Takaichi, who is
seen as a hardline conservative, not sounding off in that direction,
but in fact defending Japan's interests while understanding that China
remains a major economic power and a major economic partner
(16:01):
for Japan. On Canada, their relationship with China has been
incredibly fraught now going back to twenty seventeen twenty eighteen,
and so Mark Karney presents a new opportunity for China
to reset relations with Ottawa, and so I think that's
what we saw there.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
But he's got a really big task ahead of him.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
The United States makes up more than sixty percent of
overall trade for Canada, and even if he were to
double trade with China, or triple shade with China, you'd
still be overly reliant in the United States and be
held in that domain, and so US interests, particularly security interests,
could really undermine that relationship.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
President Trump wrapped up his Asia tour with a one
year trade truce with China. Under the deal, Beijing will
suspend new export controls on rare earth elements, resume purchases
of US soybeans, and work harder to curb the flow
of fentanyl into the US. In return, Washington will reduce
tariffs on Chinese goods and delay as sanctions plan that
(17:00):
would have hit more Chinese companies. With the Trump she
spectacle at APEX still fresh, I asked Adam what he'll
be watching to gauge the real impact of this truce
and what it means for regional stability.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
I think one of them is whether the Chinese will
live up to the deal. And one of the big
issues there is purchases of US agricultural goods. If we
look back to Trump's first term, Trump actually signed a
very similar deal with China under the Phase one Trade
Agreement that called for China to make huge purchases of
US agriculture and energy. Two again to try and offset
(17:37):
this trade and balance, and due to a variety of factors,
one of which very much being COVID, China didn't live
up to those purchases.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
We also really need to look.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
Out as to what the United States is saying and
doing related to Taiwan. Chi Jimping and the Chinese system
have made very clear that Taiwan is not the only
part of China, and more importantly, that the issue itself
is not negotiable. And so the question becomes where the
United States actually does continue down the trend that they
have right now, where they have quietly supposedly delayed arm
shipments potentially stopped present Live from entering the United States
(18:09):
for a transit on his way to another meeting. Whether
we see that kind of new approach which would worry
very much Typeay, or we see the United States return
to more traditional approach of supporting TYPEY militarily and speaking
up in defensive type pay, which could anger Beijing and
lead to a re escalation in the trade and conflict.
Speaker 1 (18:36):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm
wanha to get more from the Big Take and unlimited
access to all of Bloomberg Dot com Subscribe today at
Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast offer. If you liked the episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This past weekend, the
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, better known as APEX, wrapped
up in Kyoungju, South Korea. The annual gathering, which began
(00:20):
as a way to promote free trade and cooperation across
Asia Pacific, was largely overshadowed by ongoing trade tensions between
its two biggest member economies, the US and China.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I think going into this we had a distinct impression
that this was going to be the Trump show, even
though he actually didn't intend to actually go to the
meetings at all.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Adam Fair is Bloomberg's senior geoeconomics analyst for Asia Pacific.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
His meetings occurred before the official summit began, and yet
his presence and US policy kind of loomed large over
the entire meeting. Despite President Ches's opportunity, which he did
take advantage of to kind of rian placed China at
the center of a more stable global trade arrangement, President
Trump and the United States and the tariff conversation kind
(01:08):
of remained at the center of all discussions.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
During his five day tour of Asia, President Trump stopped
in Malaysia and Japan, before a World Win one day
visit to South Korea. He held several high profile bilateral meetings,
including a summit with President She. So many right the whole,
so many meetings great for our country with literally hundreds
of billions trillions of dollars come into a country. As
(01:34):
Air Force one lifted off from the city of Busan,
the sleek Hong Chi limo carrying President She rolled in
and with Trump gone, she stepped into the spotlight.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
President She being there the whole time.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
The fact that China will host the next APEC summit
gave him an opportunity to kind of continue to hammer
the message that China is the more stable and better
partner for countries looking for clear economic gains in the
near future, and that unlike the United States, they will
follow through their commitments. They can be seen as reliable.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today, on the
show Beyond the Trump, she spotlight what got overshadowed at
APEX and as countries try to balance open trade with
(02:39):
national security. How are they navigating rising tensions between the
world's two largest economies without picking sides. The Trump she
meeting last week dominated headlines and overshadowed the APEC summit
that followed. Bloomberg's Adam Ferrer says, it's a reflection of
(03:02):
a broader shift in how these multilateral forums are perceived.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
The reality is that APEC and these other large multilateral forums,
I think of the G twenty as well, have been
losing significance as a major mover of policy. And that's
not just a symptem of the Trump administration. It's been
happening for the better part of the past decade, as
we've seen divergence in the objectives and policy goals of
(03:27):
the largest participants.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
APEC has nearly four decades of history. It's twenty one
member economies span the Pacific Rim and include global powerhouses
like the US, China, Japan, and Australia. Together, they account
for nearly sixty percent of global GDP and half of
world trade. And while apex's founding mission breaking down trade
barriers and promoting economic cooperation is increasingly challenged, Adam says
(03:56):
the forum still plays an important role.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
The value seems to really be in the convening function, right,
bringing together leaders from a very diverse set of economic
powers and providing an avenue for them to engage with
key market leaders in business as well, that you don't
get to do every day, and particularly for some of
the smaller economies, there's nothing like it. APEX also unique
(04:19):
in that Taiwan, as a major economy, is invited, and
while it is not represented at a leader level, it
is there and has the opportunity to hold many bilateral
meetings with senior officials and leaders across the world, which
is incredibly important for it.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
During his Asia tour, President Trump struck a warm tone
with US allies and partners. He danced with performers at
a welcome ceremony in Malaysia and wrapped his arm around
Japan's Prime Minister Senai Takichi during his speech. That was
a stark contrast to months of tariff threats, rusing trade
battles and America First rhetoric.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I think there's deep scars with many US allies, and
that includes NATO, that includes Japan and Korea with how
they've been treated in this trade war. Korea is a
good example, Korea maintained not only an alliance with the
United States, but a free trade agreement with the United States,
and what they found when they entered these negotiations with
the White House was that was worth basically nothing. But
(05:18):
at the same time, now sitting here after APEC, after
President Trump and President ejmy Jung sat down and actually
agreed to finalize their trade agreement, you do land in
a slightly different place than I think we expected, which
is that President Trump has actually elevated Korea and Japan
and the EU to some extent as preferred partners in trade.
(05:40):
But not only just in trade, but in terms of
bringing the key industries and investment into the United States
that's necessary for his vision of reindustrializing and bringing manufacturing
back in those key industries that are going to determine
the future for the United States.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
It wasn't that long ago, just in September, really, when
the US raided a Hyunda plant in Georgia and they
detained hundreds of CREA nationals. It was a deeply embarrassing
episode for Korea. Then, of course Trump was in Korea
making nice. What kind of messaging does that send to
other Asian countries.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
So the raid at the Hyndei facility, I think caught
everyone off guard, and particularly those in Soul in regard
to how they would be treated by the United States,
and not only just how their nationals would be treated,
but how the individuals they are sending to the United
States session do the work to build out these massive investments.
The fact that even they are not immune from the
(06:35):
other priorities of the administration, which is to push back
on immigration or a legal immigration as they see it,
you know, it raised real questions about what the intent
is that the United States and what their willingness is
to actually prioritize these partnerships. And so while I think
Trump's demeanor and approach to partners and allies on this
series of meetings certainly is helpful to address the problem
(06:59):
and remind them that the US does see them as important,
it certainly doesn't solve it.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Then there's Trump's decision to skip the APEX summit altogether
and meet with key Asian leaders one on one instead.
Adam says it may not be a deliberate snub, but
the message it sent was clear.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
I think the staff would say that folks should be
very happy that Trump showed up at all, and that
his arrival in South Korea, the fact that actually he
also went to Malaysia some element of the East Asia
Summit were a better than expected deliverable from President Trump
in terms of his willingness to travel a very long way,
and it is having just done those flights.
Speaker 3 (07:40):
It is a very long way to meet with leaders.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
But I think the reality is it does align very
well with how Trump has been approaching his engagements globally,
both in the White House and abroad.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
Is his objectives come first.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Now, Adam, you've served across both of Biden and Trump administrations,
how would you characterize the US economic and diplomatic strategy
here in Asia. I mean, it seems as if it's
changing the region and diplomacy and relationships dramatically.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Well, the last part is certainly true. I think it
is helpful though, to remind ourselves that trade has been
an increasingly complicated issue for US efforts and diplomatic efforts
in the Indo Pacific. And that's not new to the
Trump administration, even in the Biden administration, which set out
a very clear policy objective in the New Pacific, basically
putting allies and partners first, seeking to compete with China
(08:33):
where it was necessary, but cooperate where possible. Even there
because of the kind of this shifting and growing economic
nationalism that we saw in the United States and across
the globe, Biden administration was unable to move forward with
any substantive trade agenda. Throughout all four years of its administration.
There were efforts, lots of efforts from countries in the
(08:54):
region to try and convince the United States to rejoin
the Transpecific Partnership, a trading agree that had actually been
built very much by the Obama administration, but that was
completely off the table. The big difference though, that we
see this time around with President Trump. He views the
entire world and this key part of the world through
(09:14):
one lens and one lens alone, and that is trade,
and not only trade overall, but really through trade balance, right,
and only goods, not goods and services, where the United
States is far more competitive. And so with that he's
kind of put aside the history, both good and bad,
with countries.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
In the region.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
And as he said multiple times, he asked them for
their best offer. Right, give me your best offer, and
we will send back a deal for you. To sign
and that's been his approach. And in some ways that's
understandable for some leaders in the region who kind of
get the desire for the United States to take a
more nationalistic approach similar to some of them, But at
the same time, it's antithetical to how the United States
(09:56):
has approached its alliance relationships in the region for the
past decade, where it saw a broader strategic importance to
the relationship even when there were maybe negative or unequal
parts of the relationship, potentially on trade and on economics.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
After the break with Trump gone, China steps in. How
are smaller economies responding and what is China's growing influence
mean for the region's future. That's next Donald Trump back
(10:38):
in DC.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
It's she's imping stage right now.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
He's going to be meeting with Mark Karni of Canada,
meeting with Sanai Takaiji of Japan.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
He'll be giving a speech over the weekend. President. She
took center stage at the APEX summit, appearing in nearly
every photo and headline. After holding talks with regional leaders
and delivering a speech calling for stables, supply chains, and
open trade. She arrived at the welcome dinner shoulder to
shoulder with South Korean President Eugenie, ladies and gentlemen, the
(11:11):
leaders and spouses on the twenty one AID pack Nember Economy.
The display of camaraderie was part of She's effort to
position himself as a champion of free trade and regional cooperation.
Bloomberg's Adam Ferrer says this comes in the wake of
Trump's latest trade war, which is hit manufacturing economies like Vietnam, Malaysia,
(11:32):
and Indonesia that rely heavily on the US market. But
China's pitch isn't without its own complications.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
While China, I think, has made hay of this situation,
has tried to demonstrate themselves, as we've talked about already,
as a more stable and reliable partner, they also come
with a huge amount of baggage to start with. Right
we saw recently with these threats on export controls that
China is also willing to take extreme actions, extra territorial
action to try and limit the flow of goods that
(12:02):
they don't want moving to any individual company or country,
depending on their own interests and their ability to leverage
that if they want, And that's a real threat for
countries and companies that produce electronics around the world, and
particularly in Southeast Asia. Simultaneously, China's manufacturing power and the
size of their exports are a real threat to domestic
(12:23):
industry throughout the region, not only prior to this trade war,
but now with the United States erecting this trade wall,
we are seeing the diversion of goods, and while we
can't be certain that it is all diversion, export figures
from China in the last quarter showed a twenty seven
percent drop in exports to the United States, but somehow
still an eight percent increase in exports overall, and that
(12:44):
means much more goods are flowing to Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa,
and for that to be pulled into the market, someone
else has to lose. And so the question becomes how
long can that go on before these local markets have
to put up their own trade barriers to try and
limit China's role and access to the region.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
And I think to that point, many APEC countries are
caught between this need to maintain open trade and also
feeling the pressure to safeguard national security. How do you
see countries like South Korea, like Vietnam, or Australia navigating
these tensions, especially as they try to avoid choosing sides
right between the US and China.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
To start with, I think there is deep confusion among
leaders around the world, and particularly the Asia Pacific, about
what US priorities on national security really are right now.
What is the US policy towards China, What is the
US policy in the Indo Pacific. We don't even have
the formal policy documents yet, right we don't have the
National Security Strategy or the National Defense Strategy, which gives
some hints of what the United States is trying to do.
(13:46):
Because at the end of the day, it really seems
that President Trump is viewing the world through the same lens.
It's not Asia first, it's trade first, and it's his
version of trade. And so with that, we've seen big
changes on this question of national security, particularly when it
comes to things like export controls. These are tools that
were put in place to restrict the flow of advanced technology,
(14:07):
particularly to China, under the guides of national security and therefore,
in principle, as the United States had said in the
first trun administration and did say in the Biden administration,
they're non negotiable, right These are things that the United
States has to do for its own defense, and that
it expects partners and allies to do if they wish
to be part of the broader US tech ecosystem. But
(14:29):
here in the trade negotiations with China, we saw the
United States theoretically willing to back away from entity listings
and lots of conversations at senior levels over the past
several months about not moving forward with new export controls
to limit damage in the broader trade relationship.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
She held mylateral meetings with Japan's new leaders in Iakichi
and Kennedy's Prime minister. What do you think China was
trying to signal through these engagements?
Speaker 2 (14:55):
So at the top line, I think China saw an
opportunity again to demonstrate that it is a more stable
and different type of partner than the United States is
presenting itself as now in twenty twenty five. But that said,
I think particularly Canada and Japan, each one is unique
in their bilateral relationship. President she did actually meet with
Prime Minister Ishiba last year at APEC, and this year
(15:18):
we had this unique opportunity of Takaichi, the new Japanese
Prime Minister, having just been sworn in, and so meeting
with her was not unusual, And the fact is that
it was an incredibly frosty meeting from all observations, and
I think we didn't see any signs that the relationship
is moving in a particularly new or positive direction between
the two and the messaging from She and Takaichi seemed
(15:41):
to demonstrate that, with She kind of emphasizing that Japan
needed to take the correct approach to dealing with China
to recognize their power and interests, and Takaichi, who is
seen as a hardline conservative, not sounding off in that direction,
but in fact defending Japan's interests while understanding that China
remains a major economic power and a major economic partner
(16:01):
for Japan. On Canada, their relationship with China has been
incredibly fraught now going back to twenty seventeen twenty eighteen,
and so Mark Karney presents a new opportunity for China
to reset relations with Ottawa, and so I think that's
what we saw there.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
But he's got a really big task ahead of him.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
The United States makes up more than sixty percent of
overall trade for Canada, and even if he were to
double trade with China, or triple shade with China, you'd
still be overly reliant in the United States and be
held in that domain, and so US interests, particularly security interests,
could really undermine that relationship.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
President Trump wrapped up his Asia tour with a one
year trade truce with China. Under the deal, Beijing will
suspend new export controls on rare earth elements, resume purchases
of US soybeans, and work harder to curb the flow
of fentanyl into the US. In return, Washington will reduce
tariffs on Chinese goods and delay as sanctions plan that
(17:00):
would have hit more Chinese companies. With the Trump she
spectacle at APEX still fresh, I asked Adam what he'll
be watching to gauge the real impact of this truce
and what it means for regional stability.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
I think one of them is whether the Chinese will
live up to the deal. And one of the big
issues there is purchases of US agricultural goods. If we
look back to Trump's first term, Trump actually signed a
very similar deal with China under the Phase one Trade
Agreement that called for China to make huge purchases of
US agriculture and energy. Two again to try and offset
(17:37):
this trade and balance, and due to a variety of factors,
one of which very much being COVID, China didn't live
up to those purchases.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
We also really need to look.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
Out as to what the United States is saying and
doing related to Taiwan. Chi Jimping and the Chinese system
have made very clear that Taiwan is not the only
part of China, and more importantly, that the issue itself
is not negotiable. And so the question becomes where the
United States actually does continue down the trend that they
have right now, where they have quietly supposedly delayed arm
shipments potentially stopped present Live from entering the United States
(18:09):
for a transit on his way to another meeting. Whether
we see that kind of new approach which would worry
very much Typeay, or we see the United States return
to more traditional approach of supporting TYPEY militarily and speaking
up in defensive type pay, which could anger Beijing and
lead to a re escalation in the trade and conflict.
Speaker 1 (18:36):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm
wanha to get more from the Big Take and unlimited
access to all of Bloomberg Dot com Subscribe today at
Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast offer. If you liked the episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.
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