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November 27, 2024 21 mins

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Amanda Agati, Chief Investment Officer at PNC Asset Management, breaks down the firm's annual Christmas Price Index. Claire Babineaux-Fontenot, CEO of Feeding America, discusses the significance of food banks during the holiday season.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and
Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. On listen, I know you
want to sing, oh, Carol. Carol's singing right now.

Speaker 1 (00:27):
Like it's just He's like, no, no, no, not yet.
We got to get through Thanksgiving. Does not put the
Christmas music on it, I.

Speaker 3 (00:32):
Will tell you crazy.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
It does seem a little early to be talking about this.
It's never too It's never too early. That's what Amanda
Gotti would say, because you know, the Twelve Days of Christmas,
twelve drummers, drumming, ten lords of leaping, eight mids of milking,
five golden rings, a partridge and Patrie I kind of
went out of order there and purpose. I don't want
people to get the song stuck in their house.

Speaker 3 (00:51):
A lot to pull that together.

Speaker 2 (00:53):
It does cost a lot. That's exactly why we're talking
about it, because if you're a regular viewer or listener
of our program, then you know that each year about
this time, we talked to Amanda Agatti over at PNC
Asset Management Group, because for more than forty years they've
been keeping track of it. Just how much the twelve
days of Christmas costs. Amanda is chief investment officer at
PNC Asset Management Group. She joins us from Philadelphia. Amanda,

(01:16):
I'm just going to go out and say it, because
I was shocked to see it. The PNC CPI rose
five point four percent. That was more than last year's increase.
It was higher than the CPI October year over year
reading of two point six percent from the BLS. When
I heard this on our planning call. You can ask
anyone on our call, I said, it has to be
the gold rings. It's got to be the gold rings.

(01:37):
Then I look at the note. It's not the gold rings.
Gold is up thirty percent from a year ago, But
that's not at all what contributed to this increase. What's
going on here?

Speaker 4 (01:46):
Well, it's always nice to be with you to talk
Christmas Price Index. And by the way, Thanksgiving is a
week later, so I'm in full on Christmas mode despite
still waiting for my turkey dinner. Nice nice later this week.
But yes, the Christmas Price INDUX is up really significantly,
and thankfully my favorite gift in the index, the golden rings,

(02:07):
of course, is not the driver. As you said, it's
really the services side of the equation, which we equate
very much to the performers. That's really what's driving this
year's calculation in terms of the Christmas Price index, and
also interesting, very much still a lot of services inflationary
fire and the broader economy too. So the numbers may

(02:29):
look eye popping, but the trends are actually quite similar.

Speaker 2 (02:31):
But I don't understand the I don't understand the gold
element here because gold is up thirty percent from a
year ago, but in your analysis it's exactly flat from
a year ago.

Speaker 4 (02:41):
It's not just purely about the cost of the gold itself.
It's the production and the creation of the ring. And
so every year we go back to the same jewelry
store and talk to them about their prices, and they
have not raised prices on a year over year basis.
So their margin has certainly come down because the input

(03:01):
cost has gone up, as you said, but they haven't
moved the needle in terms of the price for the
ring in total itself. That's a nuance, but notable, I think.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
So wait, the trends remind me over the years, as
we have talked to you about this, as we are
a service led economy, has it increasingly been that the
service side of the Twelve Days of Christmas is what
kind of moves the needle when it comes to costs.

Speaker 4 (03:26):
You know, it hasn't always been the case, but as
the broader economy has shifted from goods to more services,
we've actually seen a similar trend. The Christmas Price Index
isn't leading it necessarily, but we are seeing that shift
in the underlying data and the calculation of the index.
And so when you look at the performers in particular,

(03:46):
I mean, think about it, the Tailor Swift effect, the
Beyonce effect. We're going to pay anything to get our
hands on those tickets. And so the performers in the
index are really garnering their big fair share of increases on.

Speaker 3 (03:58):
A year over year basis.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
And I was saying, the twelve ladies dancing are the
is it eleven ten lords of.

Speaker 3 (04:03):
Leaping, tenlords of leading or ten lords of leaders?

Speaker 1 (04:05):
And they were they were doing backup work, you know,
for Taylor Swift, so like could have driven up the
cost that way.

Speaker 4 (04:09):
Six lane where another the cost is way up and
consumers will pay anything for services these days.

Speaker 2 (04:16):
What's up with these six GISA laying of eight point
nine percent from a year ago. I thought poultry prices
were flattered down.

Speaker 4 (04:22):
You know, it's it's sort of an interesting it's an
interesting dynamic there. I have to say, you know, the
backyard farming trend. Dare I say farm to table? Hopefully
the geese aren't listening to me, me here talking something
about that. I know it is, isn't it? This is
These are the cold, hard analytical facts for you. But

(04:43):
there are definitely some consumer oriented trends driving the demand
for geese up relative to some of the other birds
in the index. I mean, what are you going to
do with turtle doves? What are you gonna do with
calling birds? You know, they're not the greatest of gifts,
but geese I could get used to that.

Speaker 2 (04:59):
You got to clean up after some of these gifts,
which is never something that was encouraged in my home.

Speaker 3 (05:05):
And they fly like you you know, it's never.

Speaker 4 (05:09):
End of the day. I'm not I'm not sure what
true love is really thinking buying all of these birds here.
But nevertheless, we're not going to deviate from the classic
holiday song. So this is what you get.

Speaker 2 (05:21):
Well, this is what happened, you know, we like to
buy experiences these days, but they were more interested in
things back then.

Speaker 4 (05:27):
Carol.

Speaker 3 (05:27):
Yeah, that, uh, that's so true. You know.

Speaker 1 (05:30):
I have sisters always like giving experiences, which I always
thought was a kind of a cool thing. But I
do think about that, right, experiences versus stuff. I wonder, uh,
the Eight Maids of Milking, is it.

Speaker 3 (05:40):
Raw milk political political at all? Oh boy, that could
be a different cost equation. I'm just going to point
that out.

Speaker 4 (05:51):
It could be very different. Agreed. The underlying data as
it relates to the Maids of Milking really ties very
much to the minimum wage. And because the minimum wage
hasn't changed at all in many many years, that one
has been holding pretty steady. We could talk all day
long about, you know, the philosophical aspects of you know,

(06:12):
wages and the minimum wage and where we are from
an inflationary perspective, but until the minimum wage moves from
a policy perspective, that one, unfortunately is holding.

Speaker 1 (06:22):
Study we said, the cost of all gifts across the
two hundred thousand dollars threshold for the first time last
year today settles in three point six percent. Hire it
two hundred and nine, two hundred and seventy two hundred
and nine thousand, two hundred and seventy two dollars.

Speaker 3 (06:37):
Help me understand.

Speaker 1 (06:38):
Does this say to you, though, in general, that we
are living in a little bit of an inflationary environment? Like,
what does it tell you about if we step back
about what it means in terms of the US inflation picture.

Speaker 4 (06:50):
Well, I think we're certainly living in an elevated inflationary environment.
I mean we're gaining on it relative to the peak
of you know, nine percent in terms of CPI that
we saw sort of in the depths of the pandemic
trends that we saw there. But we haven't seen prices
come down. We're not in a deflationary environment. It's really

(07:11):
just that the rate of change on inflation is slowing,
and so we are seeing some elements of the Christmas
Price Index flowing in terms of that rate of change increase.
But nevertheless, things are on balance more expensive this year
than they were last year, and it's just a reflection
of the traditional economy as well.

Speaker 3 (07:29):
Yes, Carol Master, what's up with the partridge in a
pear tree? I mean partridge n change.

Speaker 1 (07:33):
What my understanding is a seventeen point one percent jump
in the price for a pair.

Speaker 2 (07:37):
That's that's the traditional buying, that's not the Internet buying. Okay,
Mortar absolutely right, is that there can you can I
get some back up here, Amanda Gotti.

Speaker 4 (07:50):
Yes, absolutely. Last year we were teasing that we're going
to make the partridge sit on a cardboard cutout because
the tree was so darn expensive to try and control prices.
We should be saying the same thing this year. But
the reality with the tree is we use that as
a proxy for housing costs. And even though mortgage rates
are moderating in the wake of some of the FED

(08:11):
policy actions we've seen these last few months, demand for
housing continues to be really really strong. We're net short
housing supply in this country, so house prices are really elevated, certainly,
just like they were last year.

Speaker 2 (08:26):
So if you want to buy the entire cost of
the Christmas Song, if you buy it the traditional way,
two hundred and nine thousand dollars, up three point six
percent from last year. If you want to buy it online,
close to two hundred and fifty thousand dollars, the rate
of change for inflation was slower, was lower on the internet,
but more expensive overall, you can buy out, pay later.

Speaker 1 (08:47):
Yeah, which would be another sign in terms of how
the economies.

Speaker 2 (08:52):
Amanda Gotti over at PNC. Always fun when you join us,
even if it is during the month of November and
we're already not even to Thanksgiving.

Speaker 4 (09:00):
Yep.

Speaker 2 (09:00):
But talking about Christmas a couple days, I know.

Speaker 3 (09:03):
Did you see the decorations up around it?

Speaker 4 (09:05):
I did.

Speaker 2 (09:06):
The trees are out.

Speaker 3 (09:07):
What's happening?

Speaker 1 (09:08):
This is Bloomberg.

Speaker 2 (09:10):
Well, I got some numbers for you that are a
little disturbing. I think many people would say last year
about thirteen point five percent of households in the US,
it's about eighteen million where what's considered food insecure. This
is according to the USDA. It defines food insecurity as quote,
at times during the year, these households were uncertain of
having or unable to acquire enough food to meet the

(09:31):
needs of all their members because they had insufficient money
or other resources for food. The picture is actually worse
for households with children, Nearly eighteen percent are affected by
food in security.

Speaker 3 (09:42):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (09:42):
I think about all the stories in the reality of people,
you know, kids going to school to actually get a meal.
So it's it's definitely troubling.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
It's something that Claire Babino Fontaneau is all too familiar with.
She's CEO of Feeding America. It's the US based nonprofit
that has a network of more than two hundred food banks.
Last year, Feeding America distributed more than five billion meals.
Claire joins us from New Orleans. Claire, good to have
you with us this afternoon.

Speaker 3 (10:05):
We spoke a.

Speaker 2 (10:05):
Lot about the difficulties that Americans faced during the pandemic.
What I haven't heard is an update about food insecurity
post pandemic and where we are relative to where we
were then.

Speaker 4 (10:21):
Wow.

Speaker 5 (10:22):
Well, first let me say thank you. Thriving communities are
certainly great for business, and no community you can thrive
when it's members don't have enough to eat. So I'm
thrilled to have the opportunity to talk to your audience
about this. Unfortunately, things are worse. I know that might
be difficult or for any of us to wrap our
heads around, but it's true. Food and security rates were

(10:44):
lower during the peak of the pandemic than they are today.
They are at their highest rates since the two thousand
and eight two thousand and nine economic downtown.

Speaker 2 (10:54):
Why is that.

Speaker 5 (10:56):
Well, in part because food and security captured the attention
of the American public and policy makers during the pandemic.
People saw those very long lines of cars on the road,
or saw parking lots build with ten thousand cars, each
car representing four to five families, and it got our attention.

(11:17):
And when we are intent on something, we tend to
do something about it. So a lot of resources were
directed toward food and security during that time. Since then,
the lines have simply returned to the insides of buildings,
but I think people think they've gone away. That makes
opportunities like this one all the more important for the
people that I sign up to serve every day.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
Clear Why though, are people hungry in America? We're a
rich nation, and I guess I wonder why that exists still.

Speaker 5 (11:51):
Yeah, so that's a really complex question with complex answers
and nuanced answers. But I will tell you one thing
as an example. The largest are the fastest growing population
of people who are showing up at food banks are
people who do not currently qualify for any federal nutrition
program so SNAP, normally known as food stamps. They can't

(12:17):
get SNAP. We have systems in the country that simply
don't work well. They don't think about how each could
relate to each other and how sometimes they perpetuate people
staying down. We talk about it a lot. It's sometimes characterized,
for instance, as benefits cliffs, where it is truly it

(12:39):
happens all the time throughout the country that a person
might get a one dollar an hour raise and lose
all of their childhood care benefits. I get put away
in extra one hundred dollars in the bank, and now
they no longer to qualify for their housing. So it's
a combination of things. And I'm hopeful that the Trump

(13:02):
administration is going to sit down and bring in all
of the different parts of the government, bring them together,
and have them work together to come up with some
of them.

Speaker 1 (13:11):
You know, we talk about margins a lot here, certainly
when it comes to like an earnings, our balance sheet
and a company. But I just think about the slim
margin or no margin that so many American families are
trying to exist or you know, and live on, and
it's just too fragile. We're going to continue the conversation,

(13:31):
I feel like a timely one as we all get
ready to sit down with family for Thanksgiving dinner. It's
often considered a feast of many proportions, but we know
that that's not the case across America. We're going to
come back with Claire Fontano, she is CEO of Feeding
America joining us on this Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (13:48):
Well, I want to get right back to Claire Bobino Fontana.
She's the CEO of Feeding America. It's a nonprofit based
here in the US. They've got a network of more
than two hundred food banks. Last year they distributed more
than five billion mirror meals. Claire joins us once again
from New Orleans. Claire, I was thinking as I was
preparing for this segment. I mentioned USDA data at the
top about thirteen point five percent of households in the

(14:09):
US eighteen million homes were food insecure in twenty twenty three.
This data come from the USDA's Economic Research Service, And
I was thinking to myself, is this how valuable this
information is? Because it gives us sort of a place
to start our conversation with you, but also it's important
to people like you because it gives you a baseline

(14:30):
of how to understand food and security in this country.
We can also know that the Trump administration, the incoming
Trump administration wants to cut two trillion dollars from the
federal budget. I'm wondering if you think programs such as
these important Economic Research Service data or other programs at
the USDA are at risk as a result of the
new administration incoming.

Speaker 5 (14:53):
Well, I certainly hope not. I wish I had a
crystal ball, but I don't. What I can say is
that Feeding America's network has been successful in working with
every administration since our inception. We worked with the Trump
administration during trade mitigation, for instance, that incredibly nutritious food

(15:14):
that was being produced by US farmers, growers, and producers,
so much of it was actually sent into the charitable
food system, where people received more access to nutrition than
they ever have. We have worked vigilantly as a network
to make certain that we maintain a status of being

(15:35):
non partisan, not bipartisan, which I say we reduced you
to the lowest common denominator, but non partisan. We stand
with people experiencing hunger. They tell us what they need,
and when we get them what they need, communities thrive.
When communities thrive, businesses thrive, the whole country thrives. And
it's simply not possible for people if they can't they

(15:59):
don't have enough food at home, it has a negative
impact on everything that we value, and when they get
what they need, it as a positive impact on everything
that we value. So we're hopeful that we're going to
continue to be able to get people to walk work
across whatever those divides are that we've created between us

(16:24):
and work with us as we work in communities across
the country.

Speaker 1 (16:28):
So, Claire, I think it's pretty honorable what you guys
are doing and have been doing for years. Personally, I'd
like to put you out of business and I would
love to see no American go hungry.

Speaker 3 (16:38):
So tell me what is the.

Speaker 1 (16:39):
Root cause of why Americans are hungry in America today?

Speaker 4 (16:44):
Is it?

Speaker 1 (16:44):
And you know, and help me fill out the picture here?
Is it people that you are providing assistance for one, two, three, four,
five years? Are they often getting assistance for a long time?
Is it because they can't get a job that pays?
Is it because they're a mom with kids and raising
young kids?

Speaker 4 (17:02):
Like?

Speaker 3 (17:03):
What is it? Why do we go hungry in America today?

Speaker 5 (17:06):
Yeah, it's all of the above. So there are a
group of people who come to us and it's just
episodic they had a big medical expense that they had
difficulty addressing, and we're there to be helpful in that
moment of crisis. There are others who have come to
us because they're in college. I, for instance, was food

(17:27):
and secure when I was in college. I had to
turn to the very system that I'm so privileged that
I get the chance to help lead. And for me,
it was during a period of transition when I was
working really hard to create a different kind of path
for myself. My parents hadn't had the chance to graduate
high school, and here I was in college and I

(17:49):
wanted to make good and I just couldn't make ends meet.
So there was a lot of college hunger in the country.
And they're also is generational hungry in this country. People
who turn to us every year and who have many
generations turned to the charitable food system. We've asked them,
so what is it that puts you in that line?

(18:10):
And they've been answering. We follow a report every year
in September, which is Hunger Action Month. It's called Elevating
Voices to End Hunger Together, and it's where people experience
and hunger tell us while they're in the line. So
here's what they tell us. They say it's because of
things like housing that's not affordable, is because they don't

(18:33):
have access to great health care and they care about
their health. It's because of things like the benefits clip,
which I alluded to in the earlier segment, where when
they start getting ahead, the system actually pulls them backwards.
So it's a lot of things. And we as Feeding America,
we know that to solve hunger, we can't simply food

(18:55):
bank our way out of it. So, like you, we
want to put ourselves up business, and the way to
do it is to be comprehensive and thoughtful and nonpartisan
and do what's best for the whole country by lifting
people up for experience in home.

Speaker 2 (19:11):
Claire, Carol and I were talking just a few moments
ago and sort of asking the question of supporting a
charity such as yours versus working closer to our own communities.
How do you communicate that to people supporting Feeding America
versus supporting a food bank in your hometown.

Speaker 5 (19:32):
What's so beautiful is there is no versus. Feeding America
has a national is a national infrastructure, but it is
an intensely local organization. Those food banks are in local communities.
If anyone listening and watching or to go to Feeding
America dot org, all that you'd have to do is

(19:54):
type in the soap the zip code for the community
you care about the most. There is a member of
the Feeding American network that's serving that very community. Having
a national infrastructure allows us to have a lens a pulse,
if you will, on where the greatest needs are, where
the hotspots are. We provide funding to food banks and pantries. Again,

(20:17):
there are over sixty thousand agency partners for Feeding America.
Some of them are big, some medium sized, and some
of them are little bitty church pantries throughout the country,
especially in rural America, where without those church pantries there's
so many people who would be devastated because of the
implications of hunger. So with Feeding America, you don't have
to make a choice shows local. That's what we want

(20:41):
you to do. We want you to support your local community,
and what we do as a national organization is put
you in the best position to be able to do that.

Speaker 1 (20:49):
All right, So appreciate getting some time with you as
we get ready for the holiday season, and we know
it'll be season that is going to be tough for
a lot of Americans. So appreciate checking in with you, Claire.
Holidays and nice to talk with you again. Claire Babinot Fontano,
CEO Feeding America joining us there in New Orleans.

Speaker 2 (21:07):
I was just looking for my local zip code. Two
food pantries that are not at all affiliates like they
don't look to have like you know, Feeding America branding at.

Speaker 3 (21:16):
All, But are they filling Yes.

Speaker 2 (21:18):
City Harvest is one of them, very prominent one here
in New York City.

Speaker 3 (21:20):
Probably makes sense. I was looking at the list of partners.

Speaker 1 (21:22):
It's a who's who of those in the food industry,
and so they probably work together in filling that out.

Speaker 3 (21:28):
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