December 6, 2023 • 37 mins
Amanda Agati, Chief Investment Officer at PNC Asset Management Group, provides the details of PNC’s Christmas Price Index calculating the true cost of all 'The 12 Days of Christmas' gifts. Mark Patricof, Founder and CEO of Patricof Co., discusses Jason Kelce joining a group of athletes investing in IMG Academy. Bloomberg News Wall Street Reporter Sonali Basak and Bloomberg News Finance Reporter Katherine Doherty break down the news of Wall Street’s top brass meeting with law makers on Capitol Hill. And we Drive to the Close with Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and
editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus
global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week
Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
You know what, Carol, what there are kind of like
a few I don't know, things that are just staples
of the holiday season. But think about this for a
second eggnog, the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree. Carol's famous holiday cookies,
which I'm told include homemade shortbread and peppermint bark. Yet
(00:55):
I've never actually eaten, but I've told that you do
this every year. I've known you at this point for
almost four years years and I still have never tried these.
But it's a holiday tradition.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
It is a holiday tradition. I'm trying to get back
to the tradition. There's reasons why it's been on hold,
but I know I owe you and a lot of
people some cookies, So we'll work on it.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
We have to.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Okay, I'd love to unatta balls. They're really good, all right,
But in terms of traditions, one of the things we
always look forward to is PNC Asset Management Groups Christmas
Price Index. This index, or CPI, calculates the true cost
of all twelve days of Christmas, so all the gifts,
all of the calling birds, gold rings, swimming swans, milking maids,
(01:34):
and pear trees.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Amida Gatti is the chief investment Officer at PNC Asset
Management Group. She joins us on Zoom from Philadelphia. Amanda,
good to have you back with us. You know, I've
been waiting eleven months for that much fun. We love
doing this each and every year. I got to tell you,
the headline number here is quite a bit different than
last year and kind of makes sense when it comes
(01:57):
to the you know, I'm not going to say declared. Yeah,
the slowdown that we've gotten in the economy and the
prices that have not risen as fast as they did
last year, it's not as shocking to buy that pear
tree this year.
Speaker 5 (02:13):
It's not quite as shocking. In general. I'm so delighted
to be back with both of you. This is so fun,
such a fun annual project. I cannot believe we've been
doing this, well, not you and me, P Andc's been
doing this for forty years, so it's the fortieth anniversary.
I'm not going to age or date myself anywhere near.
Speaker 6 (02:33):
Wait, so what did it cross? Wait?
Speaker 3 (02:34):
So nineteen eighties, first time eighty three.
Speaker 5 (02:37):
Nineteen eighty four?
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Tee, do you remember what it cost? Oh my god,
I'm not going to do that.
Speaker 6 (02:44):
I'm going to do that.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Okay, okay, all right, So talked to us about today's
today's tally.
Speaker 5 (02:51):
So last year, just to tee this up a little bit.
Last year, the increase on a year over year basis
was a whopping ten and a half percent. Right, we
were right in the thick of a really hot inflationary environment.
This year, I'm happy to report that we're gaining on
it in getting this inflationary battle under control. And so
(03:12):
as per the Christmas Price Index, we're only up about
two point seven percent year over year, and so that
equates to a little over forty six thousand dollars in
total to buy all twelve days worth of the gifts.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
The long and variable lag is hitting the twelve days
of Christmas.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
I mean about that.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
I will tell you though, Jay Powell would be happy
to have inflation at two point seven percent, You guys,
are I'm doing it?
Speaker 5 (03:38):
This is a key data point that the FED and
the FMC is very much focused on naturally, Right.
Speaker 3 (03:46):
Well, you know what's interesting, what do you guys find
when you do this index? How much it really does
kind of tell you about where we are in the
inflation cycle. And I went back to nineteen eighty four
courtesy of you guys, it was twenty thousand and sixty
nine dollars and fifty eight cents.
Speaker 5 (04:05):
Yeah, pretty many moons ago, right, Yeah, perspective, I think
the big thing for us is really trying to get
a sense of the health of the consumer. So what
is the consumer facing in any given holiday season, Where
is the supply and demand sort of disconnect or perhaps
alignment in any given year, and what does it ultimately
(04:27):
mean for the path forward for markets and the economy.
You know, consumption is such a huge component of growth
over time, and so we got to make sure we
understand what the consumer trends look like. And so this
is an important piece of analysis. Though lighthearted, it is
an important piece of analysis.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Is it really like, do you really like you're like, okay,
this shows you know, food costs or something like, it
really does track with what's going on in the real economy.
Speaker 5 (04:52):
I think it does. You know, it's obviously a specialty
gift basket of goods and services, and so it definitely
is an indication of maybe the higher end consumer discretionary
oriented trends that the economy and consumers in general might
be facing. But it is interesting to watch the trends
from year to year. It does track pretty nicely.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Okay, well, let's get to some of these individual items,
because I want to make sure we get to all this, Amanda.
There was actually no deflation in this, So there were
certain items that don't cost any more than they did
last year, but nothing actually went down in price.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
What sticks out to you?
Speaker 5 (05:29):
That sounds about right? Yeah, So five of the gifts
in the index, four calling birds, five gold rings, naturally
my favorite gift, seven swansa swimming, the eight Maids, and
the nine Ladies were all flat on a year over
year basis. So if you're looking for a gift this
holiday season, maybe those five gold rings are kind of
a deal on a relative basis here.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Yeah, but don't try to buy lords a leapin right.
Speaker 5 (05:54):
No, we certainly saw an increase there, and I think
this is an important tie into what we're seeing in
this service's side of the economy, try as the FED
might to get this inflationary backdrop under control. Services inflation
tend to be pretty sticky. The lords certainly fall into
the live performances or services category. When we break it
(06:14):
down between services and goods, the services component of this
index is up almost two times what the good side is.
So pretty notable there in terms of that dynamic.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Like the Taylor Swift effect, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
Although absolutely the turtle doves very pricey this year compared
to last year, five percent higher. Why our turtle dove's
so much more expensive this year last year?
Speaker 5 (06:40):
So I think, well, on the one hand, it's a
fairly limited supply in terms of the breeders that we
talked to and.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Which the bitcoin of the dove world.
Speaker 6 (06:50):
You're saying, yeah, you.
Speaker 5 (06:52):
Could, you could equate it to that, but very limited supply.
But I also think demand in this environment for specialty
doves is perhaps a little bit less. I don't know
that consumers are backing up the truck for specialty doves
this holiday season.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
It's just kind of I love it is that on
your list, Carol, specialty doves this holiday season absolutely top
part about more like, well, that's going to be more
expensive because the price of musicians has gone up.
Speaker 5 (07:18):
That's right, That's exactly right.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Did any think surprise you in this year's reading?
Speaker 5 (07:24):
I think two things probably surprise me the most.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
Though.
Speaker 5 (07:27):
The one is that when we look at the core
version of the index, so we try to mirror the
BLS's methodology and we back out the most volatile component
in the Christmas Price Index, it's food and energy for
the BLS. For us, it's the Swans. And this year
the Swans did not move at all, and so I
think that's pretty notable. It's the single biggest line item
(07:49):
and it didn't move at all, And so we sort
of think about that as perhaps investors have been bracing
for black Swan sightings all year, given recession concerns lingering
that have failed to materialize. And then the other component
is that the cost to shop online are up significantly.
(08:09):
You're not going to get a deal this year and
the Christmas Price Index by shopping online. So the convenience
component of shopping online may allow us to slay our
gift lists all day, but it's definitely going to cost you.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Why are the Swans so expensive? Are they're not expensive.
Why are they not?
Speaker 5 (08:26):
The swans are expensive. They're the single biggest line item
in general, and they tend to move around a lot
year to year. But but yeah, not this year, not
this year.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
I haven't gone swan shopping.
Speaker 4 (08:39):
In a while.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
I've actually never gone swan shopping.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Try it.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Yeah, it's kind of fun. We plan to do that,
and we have a mana do it. So she comes
and tells us.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
The price the swan ball.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Amanda gott it.
Speaker 7 (08:49):
You're so much fun.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Happy holidays, Chief Investment Officer PNC Asset Management on zoom
from Philly.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast weekday afternoons
from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or watch
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (09:10):
So excited about our next guest. So much going on,
as you know, at the intersection of sports, money, and education,
which is why this next story we're going to kind
of start here is on our radar. It's courtesy of
Bloomberg's Jullian ten. She reported last week on Patrick Coff Company,
which works with athletes and entrepreneurs to invest in private equity.
The company, along with more than fifty of its current
and former athlete clients, including Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelsey.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
And I've heard that name, okay, Jason Swift.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Oh wait wait can I say that?
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Cool?
Speaker 3 (09:41):
That's a cool one. You are hearing the voice of
Mark Patrick Coff, founder and CEO of Patrick Cough Company,
joining us here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Just
you know you're here for the next sixty minutes. No,
I'm just next time. You're going to be here for
the next We are you?
Speaker 8 (09:55):
Well, we love an opt in choice, not you have
to go do this choice.
Speaker 3 (10:00):
Well, we love having you first of all, tell us
about this deal. IMG Academy. I wasn't that familiar. Did
kind of a deep dive, but tell me what you
guys are doing.
Speaker 8 (10:08):
But you loved tennis though years ago I loved gymnastics,
well a little bit less but but relevant.
Speaker 4 (10:14):
IMG.
Speaker 8 (10:14):
They happened gymnastics. But I remember when I was in
high school, I had friends who, if they were really
good tennis players, all they wanted to do was go
to Nick Boltary in Tampa. And that is IMG Academy,
by the way. So that evolved ultimately IMG acquired volutary change.
Speaker 7 (10:29):
The name, and it's always been the pre eminent place
for in.
Speaker 8 (10:33):
Some cases privilege, but as it's changed for underprivileged.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
I mean, I guess he didn't I guess he didn't
pay it time to.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Yeah, exactly. So on one hand, you kind of knew
the brand.
Speaker 8 (10:43):
I did a lot of investment banking work for IMG
when they were an independent agency. When Endeavor bought them,
I stayed in close touch with IMG. Mumbatala invested at
the time. I was involved in that transaction, and one
of the heads of the head of corp Devid and dev,
a guy named Brent Richard, who was an old friend
of mine. We've been on the opposite side of a
couple of different banking deals, ended up as part of
(11:07):
his role and Endeavor taking over this acquisition they had
done with IMG and focusing on the academy and seeing
a really big vision for for private education, democratizing I
think access to the best coaching.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Well, yeah, I just wanted to jump in just because
when you talk Poultaria, I did. It's funny we did
the US Open this year, got super into tennis again.
Read Agasy's book. He talks about his experience at Politary,
one thing that he made hate, oh yeah, more hate
than love. For surely it totally worth and Politary for
years was his coach. But one thing that you talked
(11:41):
about was academics. And and that's that's you know, in
my experience too with growing up in California and seeing
other tennis academies, the tennis was great, academics were lacking.
Talk to me a little bit about Yeah, I will.
Speaker 4 (11:55):
I'm sorry to interrupt you. I will do a little
plug here, but it'll make sense a second.
Speaker 7 (11:58):
I've been the chairman of the board of a charity
in New Or called New Heights Youth.
Speaker 8 (12:02):
It's a basketball related charity, but we use academics as
a benefit for getting good coaching.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
So we've sort of said, look, if you can be
part of a.
Speaker 8 (12:10):
Team, if you can consistently commit to what's required you
on a team, you could do the same thing in
the classroom. So if you want our coaching, we're going
to give you. We're going to force you into after
school programs, SAT prep, college, you know, admissions process, you
know help. So IMG has done that at a much
greater scale in the for profit ways. So yes, academics
(12:32):
is a story here today. Athletics is what has always
been what people talked about, but it's the combination of
the two that is really what's interesting here. So using
sports as a hook to bring in kids either underprivileged
or privileged, put them into the right types of programs
to professionalize in their minds, how they take advantage of
(12:52):
this physical skill they have off the court, off the field,
and to have better, bigger, more fulfilling lives because of it.
And there's proof points across the globe. So when IMG
sold you know itself, Davor sold IMG Academy at EQT
the and NORDA and GLA, the opportunity was here to
(13:13):
globalize a really interesting methodology that has changed people's lives
for many, many years.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
And Andre is a good example.
Speaker 8 (13:21):
He probably wouldn't be the Andre Weos Williams in the
long list of people who have created discipline in their lives.
Speaker 7 (13:28):
Learned how to exercise one muscle.
Speaker 8 (13:30):
If they can do that successfully, realize they can exercise
their intellectual muscles too. And IMG is a really phenomenal,
i think academic process to do that.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
And the asception isn't that everybody's going to become this
big professional.
Speaker 7 (13:39):
Play's very few make it to the kind.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Of like a great finishing boarding school, right of course.
Speaker 7 (13:45):
I mean it's one way of looking at I mean
at New Heights IMG two, if five percent of these
kids go and play some.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Level professional sports.
Speaker 8 (13:53):
Remember professional sports, you know, take basketball isn't just the NBA.
There's leagues in Italy and France and Greece and Israel
and many other places Brazil. Great players coming from all
over the world. Now, So that's the other opportunity here
with IMG Academy and why they chose EQT and why
we could be helpful is there's a real opportunity to
globalize this.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
You know, speaking of globalization, there's so many places I
want to go with you, PGA and live they're supposed to.
I think there's a deadline at the end of this
year for this merger.
Speaker 8 (14:22):
I think we talked about it this spring as if
it was a done deal already.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
It's coming or it's expected to. What do you think
happens next?
Speaker 8 (14:31):
You know, I don't know. I mean it's very hard
to say. I think it's this is a good thing.
Speaker 4 (14:35):
Absolutely.
Speaker 8 (14:36):
Look, I think anytime people have an opportunity to be
paid fairly for their talent.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
Is a good thing. So if it's.
Speaker 8 (14:46):
One league, clearly you know that caps to some extent
what someone can make. I think competition ultimately is a
good thing. I think the way it's been managed has
been quite poor.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
I'm already pretty certain that.
Speaker 8 (15:01):
The JP Morgan's of the world, who happen to own,
you know, here just in full disclosure of twenty percent
of my business. Yeah, but who are the biggest sponsors
of the US Open for example, I'm sure they were.
And by the way, you know, the the Masters and
other things like that, I'm sure they had allowed voice
when this fell upon us in the spring. So, you know,
I think it's a good thing if it helps, you know,
(15:21):
you know, democratize golf, so more people play golf, more
people see golf, more people attend golf tournaments. I mean
it's been for the privileged few who get to go
to see the Masters or go, you know, watch any
of these tournaments.
Speaker 7 (15:33):
And I hope something good comes of it. I mean,
I think TQL is.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
Interesting, which is the new indoor.
Speaker 8 (15:38):
League right see if that that got Scott delayed, I
you know, it's it's an interesting way to take a
sport that's been for very few people who could afford it.
So if LIVE and PGA come together, you have to
see what that means TBD.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Yeah, Hey, listen, we've only got a couple of minutes,
so you've got to already promise to come back really
soon forwards. But two minutes. The world's pretty stressful, to
say the least. And who'd have thought, like, just kind
of this year, the stuff that we were talking about,
seeing living athletes, what's their role in all of this?
And we're getting ready for a really important presidential election
(16:15):
in the United States, what's their role or should be
their role? Where you know it can backfire in an instant.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Used to be.
Speaker 8 (16:22):
I think in the locker rooms of the old days,
you didn't talk about money, you didn't talk about sex,
and you didn't talk about politics. I think in the
last cycle of professional sports, where these kids are seeing
the world in a very different way, they're learning more
by accident or intentionally at a much younger age. They
(16:43):
are forming opinions, they're realizing the power of their brains.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
Back to IMG Academy and.
Speaker 8 (16:49):
I speak to athletes most cases seven days a week.
They'll bring up what do you think is going to
happen next November. I don't like this candidate. I do
like that candidate, and they are starting to understand that
if they decide to amplify a point of view that's
well informed, that could be influential.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
I mean not to make it.
Speaker 8 (17:08):
About diversity, but you think about Obama and Oprah and
the impact she had the number one I'm going to
use this example because it's kind of off point for
the US, but the number one cricket player in India
has two hundred and fifty million Instagram followers. I don't
have offhand how many Instagram followers Joe Burrow has or
Kyrie Irving or but you saw what Kyrie Irving did
(17:28):
last fall. They can make a difference. And if athlete
A doesn't want to see Donald Trump become president, he
or she has a voice, and I think you're going
to see a willingness that you did not see in
the past other than from a very select few, to
use that voice to I think a positive end. And
(17:52):
any opinion is a good opinion, I would say about athletes,
and you know, just have an opinion.
Speaker 7 (17:56):
I don't care whether you go left or right or
do this deal.
Speaker 4 (17:58):
Don't do this deal.
Speaker 6 (17:59):
I just want to do.
Speaker 8 (18:00):
You have an opinion, so we say that a lot
of them about politics, have an opinion.
Speaker 4 (18:03):
It matters. It's going to affect your lives.
Speaker 3 (18:06):
As I said, promised to come back soon because we'll
do more. We will, obviously, Mark Patrickoff, President CEO of
Patricoff Company, joining us here in studio.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station
Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 9 (18:34):
Well.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
The CEOs of some of the biggest US banks, including
Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan, Brian moynihano Bank of America,
and Jane Frazier of City Group, spent much of the
day testifying before the Senate Banking Committee. They made a
lot of news, perhaps unsurprisingly, they rallied against regulator's proposals
to raise capital for the biggest banks. Here's JP Mortgan's
Jamie Diamond.
Speaker 10 (18:55):
We had ten years to do this and it's shocking
to meet it. With city after ten years and told
me about what they're going to do for small business,
and we have to analyze it today. It was not
thoughtfully done. I'm not sure was shared fully among all
the regulators. This should be we looked at all.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
Right.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
That's Jamie Diamond, of course, CEO of JP Morgan up
on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
He doesn't dum mince words.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
No, he's not bashful having.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
No, he's not. He went on to say that they
will hurt lower income borrowers. GOLDMNZAXSIO David Solomon called the
new rules quote punitive to economic growth. O and Senator
Elizabeth Warren actually found some common ground carol with the bankers.
Speaker 7 (19:27):
Yeah, she did.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
Shanelli Basek and Kat Doherty they've been all over this
story today. Shanali is Wall Street reporter for Bloomberg News.
She's in our DC bureau, back from Capitol Hill where
she's been since the early hours of the morning. And Kat,
of course is finance reporter here at Bloomberg News. She
joins us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Nali, let's
start with you. It's an annual thing, but give us
some background history, origin of these get togethers between Wall
(19:52):
Street and Washington and I'm glad you're back in where
it's warmer.
Speaker 9 (19:56):
Yeah, exactly, it was quite cold outside this morning. But yes,
these really started back by Maxine Waters back in twenty
nineteen at the House. This year it wasn't at the House.
It was mostly at the Senate, and so the Senate
really has shepherd this since twenty twenty one under the
leadership of Ohio Democratic Senator Shared Brown. There were a
(20:17):
lot of reasons that this was happening. One is a
lot of concern about banking services and low income communities
in rural communities across America, right before the pandemic, really
years before the pandemic, in.
Speaker 6 (20:31):
The wake of the murder of George Floyd.
Speaker 9 (20:33):
That was a really important moment in all this as well,
because the banks were really pressed on their commitments to
racial equity across America. Why black homeowners were not getting
mortgages at the same rate in a refinancing boom in
really the lowest interest rates we've seen in a generation.
And now on the flip side, they're getting questions in
the other direction, why is it so hard for everyone
(20:55):
to get a mortgage? Why are they retreating from the
mortgage business at such a flat fast clip, and a
lot of that they can blame on regulation. And they
certainly are using this moment to blame regulation for why
they are getting out of certain businesses in certain areas
across America.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
But I mean regulation is one thing. But mortgages are
down because rates are up kats, so you know, the
Fed has raised rates to bat tame inflation. And when
you see the rise sits, you see the.
Speaker 11 (21:23):
Big the big banks backing out of the mortgage business.
Has really it was before interest rates started going up,
and it tracks back to where it comes down to
is it a profitable business? And Diamond had a quote
today where he basically talked about loans. It could apply
to mortgages just lending in general. When these banks are
(21:46):
looking at each business line, especially the big ones like
BAA and JP Morgan that have different units that all
have to report up to the one entity that ends
up saying how much revenue their generation in year, and
they have to show that to shareholders. If there is
something that is not making them money and it ends
(22:06):
up like the math doesn't work out, they're going to
make that business decision to say this is not something
that is benefiting our business, and they do have to
the only reason that like a Bank of America hasn't
exited completely from mortgages is because they want to be
a provider for their clients in a wholesome way. So
(22:27):
if you have a someone that has a checking account
a saving account with you, and then they come and
they say I also want to have a mortgage with you,
they want to say, okay, we can do that as well.
But they're not doing it in a big way. They're
not going out and I don't think.
Speaker 6 (22:43):
That you would.
Speaker 11 (22:43):
I would be surprised to see an advertisement from one
of the big banks saying hey, you can have a
mortgage with us, because it's not something that they're touting.
So it really isn't tied to interest rates going up.
You make a good point of where we're at today
and that there aren't as many folk folks out there
looking for mortgages because people are sitting and waiting for
(23:04):
interest rates to go down. So yes, in this economic environment,
the banks, even and non banks that provide mortgages, aren't
lending as much for housing. But that doesn't have to
do with the bank's business decision to back out of
that business.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Yeah, I think it's kind of interesting. I think about
the Wells Farga remote that we did that really trying
to I mean they've got a lot of issues or
have for years, but really trying to move in terms
of their diversity lending and because there's been a lot
of criticism for them specifically to not only what's stood
out for you in terms of the questioning, It's always
kind of remarkable when I see like a pan of
a camera against these very notable CEOs, many of them,
(23:45):
most of them, a lot of them household names, Like
we know who they are, people in general do, and
we follow them very closely. So what was notable for you?
Speaker 6 (23:54):
One moment that was the most notable?
Speaker 9 (23:56):
Was it exchange that Elizabeth Warren Senator Elizabeth Warren, who
is the toughest on the banks, that she had with
the bank CEOs. She seems to have turned her focus
very largely to crypto. She has been very focused on
the abuses in the crypto industry, particularly when it comes
to anti money launding, and she asks each of the
bankers whether they agreed that those crypto firms should be
(24:17):
subject to the same manni money laundering rules that the
banking system is today. Each of them said absolutely, And
so you had this strange moment that hasn't happened.
Speaker 6 (24:26):
For years, so publicly, where Elizabeth.
Speaker 9 (24:28):
Warren and the banking system were on the same side.
I did catch up with her right after the hearing
in person as well, and one thing I asked her
that she would not explicitly answer is whether she would
be willing to regulate the private capital system.
Speaker 6 (24:41):
And this is a system.
Speaker 9 (24:43):
For example, private credit has ballooned to a one point
five trillion dollar industry so far and fast growing.
Speaker 6 (24:50):
And that's where the bankers.
Speaker 9 (24:52):
Are trying to draw their attention to, saying that if
you squeeze us more, most of the activity is going
to non banks. They point to private credit in particular.
Even the mortgage system is now the top three by
the number of mortgages originated last year, and none of
them are the big banks.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
Kat I feel like the big bank the publicly, right,
they've got to be bristling.
Speaker 11 (25:11):
Right, Well, yeah, I mean she's always tying it all together, right,
like when when you talk about the CEO showing up
today and they were just guns ablazing going after a
new regulation that they're facing and there was a big
emphasis on saying if you do this, they said, number one,
we'll be able to handle it. It's not as if
our balance sheets aren't strong enough to uh to take
(25:34):
whatever you're throwing at us. However, we're going to back away,
and this will push businesses or if the businesses that
we back away from or we're like pulling back because
we have to abide by this new regulation, others will
step in. And that means that the activity that you're
trying to regulate will just move to an area that
(25:56):
you can't even see.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
What's going on, so called shadow banks, shadow banking.
Speaker 11 (26:00):
The private credit market. So it really it's an interesting
like you see the activity already happening, and they're capitalizing
on that. They're trying to point out that the intention
of Basel three might actually start moving the activity and
be the opposite. It might be into an area that's
not protected, not regulated.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
If five time, I want to ask this of both
of you, but are they right? Shanali and I mean
just as both of you, you know, look at private
credit or the private world. You look at obviously the
publicly held banks. You know, increasingly we're just seeing that
private lending world just kind of continue to grow and
be a bigger part of kind of the lending world.
(26:43):
And I do wonder we all wonder, you know, what's
going on that we don't know about.
Speaker 9 (26:48):
Listen, there's a really interesting report that we're going to
be writing about later this week that basically cites that,
and it's a giant in the industry that's going to
be talking.
Speaker 6 (26:56):
About how private credit is actually a bigger.
Speaker 9 (26:59):
Problem in terms of potential defaults in the future because
it's hidden all those problems and their medium and small businesses,
although not so small that you know, they're still missing
a large swath of society here. Can we also just
talk about how much the narrative has shifted, because this
used to be a quite hostile affair in the last
several years. The last couple of years they had these hearings,
(27:19):
and it's almost like.
Speaker 6 (27:20):
The tides of shifts shifted.
Speaker 9 (27:22):
The banks have understood that they need to play ball
with these regulators and these lawmakers. If they play ball
in some ways, then they get other things in return.
And by the way, they were the big saviors of
the industry.
Speaker 6 (27:34):
This year.
Speaker 9 (27:34):
They got together, they put capital together to make sure
that one bank didn't fail in a disorderly manner.
Speaker 6 (27:40):
You know, it's amazing all they have.
Speaker 9 (27:43):
And I've got to say, you know, this morning, the
first thing I saw this morning was David Solomon hanging
out with James Gorman and Brian coming to meet them,
and it's kind of like they've all gotten their act together.
They have a coordinated message, and their message is we
play a role here, we play an important role here.
You're not gonna want to shunt us too badly because
(28:05):
you need us. And the lawmakers seem to fall in
line with that story.
Speaker 11 (28:10):
They know how to play the game. They're walking in
here today and they have a strategy. Yeah, they're they're
they're saying, like, here we are and we showed up
during the regional banking crisis.
Speaker 3 (28:22):
It's a really good point, you guys. We have to
run love it. This was such a good roundtable. Shanali
Basik and Kat Doherty.
Speaker 12 (28:29):
A brother mac.
Speaker 4 (28:33):
A journal.
Speaker 6 (28:34):
How about you let me drive? No, no, no no, who's
going to drive?
Speaker 7 (28:39):
Honey? Please?
Speaker 4 (28:40):
How do the riding gravel ecles? Mate?
Speaker 3 (28:42):
I want to drive?
Speaker 6 (28:43):
It's good question.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
This is the drive to the globe. Well yold Don
on Bluebird Radio.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
All Right, everybody, Uh, just about eighteen minutes left in
today's trading session. Yeah, we're at our lows of the
day when it comes to the equity trade.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
Yeah, but as we just heard from Bill Maloney, we
saw early gains in the day. It's kind of an
interesting move, right. If you go to HCPI D on
the Bloomberg terminal, you can see that five hundred was
up as much as half a percentage point early in
the session. Love's the day about three to four tons
of one percent, so you know, quite a bit of move.
Speaker 3 (29:25):
Yeah that was. That was then that's not now though.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Yeah, you're right, just giving you a hard time. Someone's
already on vacation, just a little sierily.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
All right, So let's get to it because our next
guest expects two to three rate cuts in the new year.
With more on her thinking and what that may portend
for US docs, it's time for the drive to the closed.
Nattia Level is with us. She's senior US equity strategist
at UBS glowth Global Wealth Management, and she's with us
on zoom in New York City. Natty, how are you.
Speaker 10 (29:54):
I am?
Speaker 4 (29:55):
Wow?
Speaker 3 (29:55):
How are you I'm doing okay, do it well. I'm
ready to kind of put a bow on the year.
To be quite honest, it's been dense. It's been a
lot of stuff, a lot of big stories, and a
lot of twists and turns and volatility for investors to
deal with. So let's get to your premise, your macro
environment for the US equity market. Two to three rate
(30:16):
cuts a year. What do you why and when do
you anticipate that they might come through.
Speaker 12 (30:22):
We think that that actually won't come through until the
middle of the year. We actually think that the market
current pricing is a bit aggressive. We've seen this massive
pendulum swing to to do fish a bit too quickly
from our hard pivot from higher for longer. Right now,
the market is pricing in over one hundred and thirty
basis points for cuts next year. I mean even Chairman
(30:42):
Powell tried to push back on this last week, even
though a bit unsuccessful. But we think that the Fed
is going to remain patient. We should start to see
inflation moderate further than the first half of the year,
and that will put the Fed in the position to cut.
And one could argue that the financial market is actually
already doing some of the work for the fedt He
did see a massive ease and in financial conditions in November,
(31:04):
like to the highest sort of the biggest drop that
you've seen in multiple decades, and so we think that
the FED will use that to its advantage as well.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
What it's the concern though, that that could actually change
your hypothesis of you know, two to three rate cuts
next year. What would cause you to reverse that view?
Would say, actually, the FED does need to hold rates
higher for longer.
Speaker 12 (31:26):
It will be the inflation out look. I mean, growth
seems to be holding in there and the disinflation trend
does seem to be brought in out. But if we
do get a pause in that and sort of any
free acceleration or stall out in inflation, that could keep
the FED higher for longer to make sure that inflation
does not raise its head aggressively again. And so if
(31:47):
we don't see inflation and we might get a hot
print next week, I just want to preface that. But
we don't think that one data point is going to
train the trajectory. But if we get a few hot prints,
two or three hot prints, that that could keep the
FED higher for it.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
Does feel like now that we're kind of we can
see the light at the end of the tunnel when
it comes to perhaps FED policy. What is so important
is I feel like tim those trend lines we're talking
about that with Michael McKenzie, Like this idea that the
monthly jobs report that we get on Friday, it's not
just the November read, it's the December read, it's the
(32:20):
January read, it's the February read that gives the FED kind.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
Of too that already happened.
Speaker 7 (32:29):
Yeah, but like.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
A trend line that continues, right that it's not just
kind of a blip on the data screen.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
And Nattie, one thing I have to ask you is
it does seem like every piece of data we get
is sort of feeding that narrative right now. I mean,
is there any data that you can point to that
we've gotten over the past couple of weeks that actually
says that there is not going to be a soft landing?
Speaker 6 (32:51):
You know.
Speaker 12 (32:51):
Of course, we continue to watch some of the ICEM data,
particularly on the manufacturing, so that's been a contraction for
quite some time. I mean, it was encouraged to see services,
you know, improve, but that's something that we're watching and
of course, as we all know, we all watching the
labor market because you know, any sort of weakness in
that will impact consumer spending, and the consumer has been
helping to prop up this economy. We're hearing continue positive
(33:15):
commentary from some of the banks this past week at
the industry conference about the consumer. And so if the
consumer gets concerned about you know, possibility of job loss,
and we could see a stallin and consumer spending and
that and that would not equate to our soft lending.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
All right, So would you suggest any kind of changes
in an investor's portfolio here on Wednesday, December sixth, or
perhaps do you wait till after the FED meeting next week,
or do you just kind of sit tight and wait
for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 12 (33:46):
I think at this point the year has been already
made and you sort of sit tight and wait for
next year. And if you do get a pull back
in the market, assuming that the growth data still holds
in there, then you might want to consider buying that
if the market has had a pretty strong rally. But
from a position to a standpoint, we're maintaining our position
in terms of being positive on tech into twenty four.
(34:09):
We do think that there's opportunity and energy, particularly on
this pullback has been very painful of the last couple
of months in energy, and then you want to add
some defensive exposure in terms of consumer stables. But overall,
we think that you want to maintain a quality portfolio.
So those stocks that really continue to deliver a high
return on invested capital, those stocks that still have those
(34:30):
companies that have strong BALOGYEP.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
What kind of pullback could we see.
Speaker 12 (34:36):
You could see some consolidation here, some digestion, which we
actually think would be healthy for this market after such
a massive rally, the best that we have seen in
all the year, and we did have a strong year
to begin with, and so some consolidation would be healthy,
but we think that that's likely to be short lived.
You still have some potential seasonal factors that could be
at play here, the typical sand Claus rally in the
(34:58):
January or fact and you still have some buybacks that
could help support this market. And overall you have the
earners recovery. So that's why we don't think that there's
much downside to this market. The earners recovery should continue
to gain some momentum into twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
Well That's what I want to ask you. Fundamentally, like
we can all speculate about what the Fed's going to do,
what they're going to say, but ultimately they're going to
say and do what they want to when they meet
and discuss, and then we'll get the outcome. But having
said that, fundamentally, when you look at valuations, and there's
a lot of different ways right to dice and slice
in terms of market caps or growth versus value. But
(35:34):
when you look at it, do you feel like fundamentally
there is room more for equity gains?
Speaker 12 (35:41):
Yes, I mean you finally have earnings back in the block,
the consumers holding in there, and so we think that
you can get high single digit earnest growth next year,
and if the economy remains in solid full that you
could even get double digit growth. I mean even like
a sectoral life tech where you say, wow, the sector
is up a lot this year, there's still more left
to go. We think so because when you look at tech,
(36:02):
this is a se that could deliver double digit road
next year for all stripping that of the market. It's
not cheap, yes, you know, but it just does have
those improvement fundamentals. That's happening, and it does tick the
box on the on the positive side of the legend,
a lot of those things that I talked about quality
in particular, and you are seeing continue momentum in AI.
(36:22):
We heard that coming out of the UBS Tech Conference
from last week. Tone overall, tone has been encouraged and
you're seeing the bottom en in the semi en market.
So the point is that things are improvement for corporations
despite the fact that you might see some slowdown in
the economic data.
Speaker 3 (36:38):
Interesting, All right, good stuff, Hey listen, Thanks and if
we don't see you before the end of the year,
Happy New Year, Happy holidays. Nadia level level excuse me,
of course, senior US equity strategist at EBS Global Wealth Management.
Joining us on zoom in New York City.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast, Apple, Spotify and
anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen lived afternoons from
three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app,
tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also
watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on
the Bloomberg Journal
This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and
editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus
global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week
Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
You know what, Carol, what there are kind of like
a few I don't know, things that are just staples
of the holiday season. But think about this for a
second eggnog, the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree. Carol's famous holiday cookies,
which I'm told include homemade shortbread and peppermint bark. Yet
(00:55):
I've never actually eaten, but I've told that you do
this every year. I've known you at this point for
almost four years years and I still have never tried these.
But it's a holiday tradition.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
It is a holiday tradition. I'm trying to get back
to the tradition. There's reasons why it's been on hold,
but I know I owe you and a lot of
people some cookies, So we'll work on it.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
We have to.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Okay, I'd love to unatta balls. They're really good, all right,
But in terms of traditions, one of the things we
always look forward to is PNC Asset Management Groups Christmas
Price Index. This index, or CPI, calculates the true cost
of all twelve days of Christmas, so all the gifts,
all of the calling birds, gold rings, swimming swans, milking maids,
(01:34):
and pear trees.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Amida Gatti is the chief investment Officer at PNC Asset
Management Group. She joins us on Zoom from Philadelphia. Amanda,
good to have you back with us. You know, I've
been waiting eleven months for that much fun. We love
doing this each and every year. I got to tell you,
the headline number here is quite a bit different than
last year and kind of makes sense when it comes
(01:57):
to the you know, I'm not going to say declared. Yeah,
the slowdown that we've gotten in the economy and the
prices that have not risen as fast as they did
last year, it's not as shocking to buy that pear
tree this year.
Speaker 5 (02:13):
It's not quite as shocking. In general. I'm so delighted
to be back with both of you. This is so fun,
such a fun annual project. I cannot believe we've been
doing this, well, not you and me, P Andc's been
doing this for forty years, so it's the fortieth anniversary.
I'm not going to age or date myself anywhere near.
Speaker 6 (02:33):
Wait, so what did it cross? Wait?
Speaker 3 (02:34):
So nineteen eighties, first time eighty three.
Speaker 5 (02:37):
Nineteen eighty four?
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Tee, do you remember what it cost? Oh my god,
I'm not going to do that.
Speaker 6 (02:44):
I'm going to do that.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Okay, okay, all right, So talked to us about today's
today's tally.
Speaker 5 (02:51):
So last year, just to tee this up a little bit.
Last year, the increase on a year over year basis
was a whopping ten and a half percent. Right, we
were right in the thick of a really hot inflationary environment.
This year, I'm happy to report that we're gaining on
it in getting this inflationary battle under control. And so
(03:12):
as per the Christmas Price Index, we're only up about
two point seven percent year over year, and so that
equates to a little over forty six thousand dollars in
total to buy all twelve days worth of the gifts.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
The long and variable lag is hitting the twelve days
of Christmas.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
I mean about that.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
I will tell you though, Jay Powell would be happy
to have inflation at two point seven percent, You guys,
are I'm doing it?
Speaker 5 (03:38):
This is a key data point that the FED and
the FMC is very much focused on naturally, Right.
Speaker 3 (03:46):
Well, you know what's interesting, what do you guys find
when you do this index? How much it really does
kind of tell you about where we are in the
inflation cycle. And I went back to nineteen eighty four
courtesy of you guys, it was twenty thousand and sixty
nine dollars and fifty eight cents.
Speaker 5 (04:05):
Yeah, pretty many moons ago, right, Yeah, perspective, I think
the big thing for us is really trying to get
a sense of the health of the consumer. So what
is the consumer facing in any given holiday season, Where
is the supply and demand sort of disconnect or perhaps
alignment in any given year, and what does it ultimately
(04:27):
mean for the path forward for markets and the economy.
You know, consumption is such a huge component of growth
over time, and so we got to make sure we
understand what the consumer trends look like. And so this
is an important piece of analysis. Though lighthearted, it is
an important piece of analysis.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Is it really like, do you really like you're like, okay,
this shows you know, food costs or something like, it
really does track with what's going on in the real economy.
Speaker 5 (04:52):
I think it does. You know, it's obviously a specialty
gift basket of goods and services, and so it definitely
is an indication of maybe the higher end consumer discretionary
oriented trends that the economy and consumers in general might
be facing. But it is interesting to watch the trends
from year to year. It does track pretty nicely.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Okay, well, let's get to some of these individual items,
because I want to make sure we get to all this, Amanda.
There was actually no deflation in this, So there were
certain items that don't cost any more than they did
last year, but nothing actually went down in price.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
What sticks out to you?
Speaker 5 (05:29):
That sounds about right? Yeah, So five of the gifts
in the index, four calling birds, five gold rings, naturally
my favorite gift, seven swansa swimming, the eight Maids, and
the nine Ladies were all flat on a year over
year basis. So if you're looking for a gift this
holiday season, maybe those five gold rings are kind of
a deal on a relative basis here.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Yeah, but don't try to buy lords a leapin right.
Speaker 5 (05:54):
No, we certainly saw an increase there, and I think
this is an important tie into what we're seeing in
this service's side of the economy, try as the FED
might to get this inflationary backdrop under control. Services inflation
tend to be pretty sticky. The lords certainly fall into
the live performances or services category. When we break it
(06:14):
down between services and goods, the services component of this
index is up almost two times what the good side is.
So pretty notable there in terms of that dynamic.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Like the Taylor Swift effect, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
Although absolutely the turtle doves very pricey this year compared
to last year, five percent higher. Why our turtle dove's
so much more expensive this year last year?
Speaker 5 (06:40):
So I think, well, on the one hand, it's a
fairly limited supply in terms of the breeders that we
talked to and.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Which the bitcoin of the dove world.
Speaker 6 (06:50):
You're saying, yeah, you.
Speaker 5 (06:52):
Could, you could equate it to that, but very limited supply.
But I also think demand in this environment for specialty
doves is perhaps a little bit less. I don't know
that consumers are backing up the truck for specialty doves
this holiday season.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
It's just kind of I love it is that on
your list, Carol, specialty doves this holiday season absolutely top
part about more like, well, that's going to be more
expensive because the price of musicians has gone up.
Speaker 5 (07:18):
That's right, That's exactly right.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Did any think surprise you in this year's reading?
Speaker 5 (07:24):
I think two things probably surprise me the most.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
Though.
Speaker 5 (07:27):
The one is that when we look at the core
version of the index, so we try to mirror the
BLS's methodology and we back out the most volatile component
in the Christmas Price Index, it's food and energy for
the BLS. For us, it's the Swans. And this year
the Swans did not move at all, and so I
think that's pretty notable. It's the single biggest line item
(07:49):
and it didn't move at all, And so we sort
of think about that as perhaps investors have been bracing
for black Swan sightings all year, given recession concerns lingering
that have failed to materialize. And then the other component
is that the cost to shop online are up significantly.
(08:09):
You're not going to get a deal this year and
the Christmas Price Index by shopping online. So the convenience
component of shopping online may allow us to slay our
gift lists all day, but it's definitely going to cost you.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Why are the Swans so expensive? Are they're not expensive.
Why are they not?
Speaker 5 (08:26):
The swans are expensive. They're the single biggest line item
in general, and they tend to move around a lot
year to year. But but yeah, not this year, not
this year.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
I haven't gone swan shopping.
Speaker 4 (08:39):
In a while.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
I've actually never gone swan shopping.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Try it.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Yeah, it's kind of fun. We plan to do that,
and we have a mana do it. So she comes
and tells us.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
The price the swan ball.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Amanda gott it.
Speaker 7 (08:49):
You're so much fun.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Happy holidays, Chief Investment Officer PNC Asset Management on zoom
from Philly.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast weekday afternoons
from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or watch
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (09:10):
So excited about our next guest. So much going on,
as you know, at the intersection of sports, money, and education,
which is why this next story we're going to kind
of start here is on our radar. It's courtesy of
Bloomberg's Jullian ten. She reported last week on Patrick Coff Company,
which works with athletes and entrepreneurs to invest in private equity.
The company, along with more than fifty of its current
and former athlete clients, including Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelsey.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
And I've heard that name, okay, Jason Swift.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Oh wait wait can I say that?
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Cool?
Speaker 3 (09:41):
That's a cool one. You are hearing the voice of
Mark Patrick Coff, founder and CEO of Patrick Cough Company,
joining us here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Just
you know you're here for the next sixty minutes. No,
I'm just next time. You're going to be here for
the next We are you?
Speaker 8 (09:55):
Well, we love an opt in choice, not you have
to go do this choice.
Speaker 3 (10:00):
Well, we love having you first of all, tell us
about this deal. IMG Academy. I wasn't that familiar. Did
kind of a deep dive, but tell me what you
guys are doing.
Speaker 8 (10:08):
But you loved tennis though years ago I loved gymnastics,
well a little bit less but but relevant.
Speaker 4 (10:14):
IMG.
Speaker 8 (10:14):
They happened gymnastics. But I remember when I was in
high school, I had friends who, if they were really
good tennis players, all they wanted to do was go
to Nick Boltary in Tampa. And that is IMG Academy,
by the way. So that evolved ultimately IMG acquired volutary change.
Speaker 7 (10:29):
The name, and it's always been the pre eminent place
for in.
Speaker 8 (10:33):
Some cases privilege, but as it's changed for underprivileged.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
I mean, I guess he didn't I guess he didn't
pay it time to.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Yeah, exactly. So on one hand, you kind of knew
the brand.
Speaker 8 (10:43):
I did a lot of investment banking work for IMG
when they were an independent agency. When Endeavor bought them,
I stayed in close touch with IMG. Mumbatala invested at
the time. I was involved in that transaction, and one
of the heads of the head of corp Devid and dev,
a guy named Brent Richard, who was an old friend
of mine. We've been on the opposite side of a
couple of different banking deals, ended up as part of
(11:07):
his role and Endeavor taking over this acquisition they had
done with IMG and focusing on the academy and seeing
a really big vision for for private education, democratizing I
think access to the best coaching.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Well, yeah, I just wanted to jump in just because
when you talk Poultaria, I did. It's funny we did
the US Open this year, got super into tennis again.
Read Agasy's book. He talks about his experience at Politary,
one thing that he made hate, oh yeah, more hate
than love. For surely it totally worth and Politary for
years was his coach. But one thing that you talked
(11:41):
about was academics. And and that's that's you know, in
my experience too with growing up in California and seeing
other tennis academies, the tennis was great, academics were lacking.
Talk to me a little bit about Yeah, I will.
Speaker 4 (11:55):
I'm sorry to interrupt you. I will do a little
plug here, but it'll make sense a second.
Speaker 7 (11:58):
I've been the chairman of the board of a charity
in New Or called New Heights Youth.
Speaker 8 (12:02):
It's a basketball related charity, but we use academics as
a benefit for getting good coaching.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
So we've sort of said, look, if you can be
part of a.
Speaker 8 (12:10):
Team, if you can consistently commit to what's required you
on a team, you could do the same thing in
the classroom. So if you want our coaching, we're going
to give you. We're going to force you into after
school programs, SAT prep, college, you know, admissions process, you
know help. So IMG has done that at a much
greater scale in the for profit ways. So yes, academics
(12:32):
is a story here today. Athletics is what has always
been what people talked about, but it's the combination of
the two that is really what's interesting here. So using
sports as a hook to bring in kids either underprivileged
or privileged, put them into the right types of programs
to professionalize in their minds, how they take advantage of
(12:52):
this physical skill they have off the court, off the field,
and to have better, bigger, more fulfilling lives because of it.
And there's proof points across the globe. So when IMG
sold you know itself, Davor sold IMG Academy at EQT
the and NORDA and GLA, the opportunity was here to
(13:13):
globalize a really interesting methodology that has changed people's lives
for many, many years.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
And Andre is a good example.
Speaker 8 (13:21):
He probably wouldn't be the Andre Weos Williams in the
long list of people who have created discipline in their lives.
Speaker 7 (13:28):
Learned how to exercise one muscle.
Speaker 8 (13:30):
If they can do that successfully, realize they can exercise
their intellectual muscles too. And IMG is a really phenomenal,
i think academic process to do that.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
And the asception isn't that everybody's going to become this
big professional.
Speaker 7 (13:39):
Play's very few make it to the kind.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Of like a great finishing boarding school, right of course.
Speaker 7 (13:45):
I mean it's one way of looking at I mean
at New Heights IMG two, if five percent of these
kids go and play some.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Level professional sports.
Speaker 8 (13:53):
Remember professional sports, you know, take basketball isn't just the NBA.
There's leagues in Italy and France and Greece and Israel
and many other places Brazil. Great players coming from all
over the world. Now, So that's the other opportunity here
with IMG Academy and why they chose EQT and why
we could be helpful is there's a real opportunity to
globalize this.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
You know, speaking of globalization, there's so many places I
want to go with you, PGA and live they're supposed to.
I think there's a deadline at the end of this
year for this merger.
Speaker 8 (14:22):
I think we talked about it this spring as if
it was a done deal already.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
It's coming or it's expected to. What do you think
happens next?
Speaker 8 (14:31):
You know, I don't know. I mean it's very hard
to say. I think it's this is a good thing.
Speaker 4 (14:35):
Absolutely.
Speaker 8 (14:36):
Look, I think anytime people have an opportunity to be
paid fairly for their talent.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
Is a good thing. So if it's.
Speaker 8 (14:46):
One league, clearly you know that caps to some extent
what someone can make. I think competition ultimately is a
good thing. I think the way it's been managed has
been quite poor.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
I'm already pretty certain that.
Speaker 8 (15:01):
The JP Morgan's of the world, who happen to own,
you know, here just in full disclosure of twenty percent
of my business. Yeah, but who are the biggest sponsors
of the US Open for example, I'm sure they were.
And by the way, you know, the the Masters and
other things like that, I'm sure they had allowed voice
when this fell upon us in the spring. So, you know,
I think it's a good thing if it helps, you know,
(15:21):
you know, democratize golf, so more people play golf, more
people see golf, more people attend golf tournaments. I mean
it's been for the privileged few who get to go
to see the Masters or go, you know, watch any
of these tournaments.
Speaker 7 (15:33):
And I hope something good comes of it. I mean,
I think TQL is.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
Interesting, which is the new indoor.
Speaker 8 (15:38):
League right see if that that got Scott delayed, I
you know, it's it's an interesting way to take a
sport that's been for very few people who could afford it.
So if LIVE and PGA come together, you have to
see what that means TBD.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Yeah, Hey, listen, we've only got a couple of minutes,
so you've got to already promise to come back really
soon forwards. But two minutes. The world's pretty stressful, to
say the least. And who'd have thought, like, just kind
of this year, the stuff that we were talking about,
seeing living athletes, what's their role in all of this?
And we're getting ready for a really important presidential election
(16:15):
in the United States, what's their role or should be
their role? Where you know it can backfire in an instant.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Used to be.
Speaker 8 (16:22):
I think in the locker rooms of the old days,
you didn't talk about money, you didn't talk about sex,
and you didn't talk about politics. I think in the
last cycle of professional sports, where these kids are seeing
the world in a very different way, they're learning more
by accident or intentionally at a much younger age. They
(16:43):
are forming opinions, they're realizing the power of their brains.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
Back to IMG Academy and.
Speaker 8 (16:49):
I speak to athletes most cases seven days a week.
They'll bring up what do you think is going to
happen next November. I don't like this candidate. I do
like that candidate, and they are starting to understand that
if they decide to amplify a point of view that's
well informed, that could be influential.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
I mean not to make it.
Speaker 8 (17:08):
About diversity, but you think about Obama and Oprah and
the impact she had the number one I'm going to
use this example because it's kind of off point for
the US, but the number one cricket player in India
has two hundred and fifty million Instagram followers. I don't
have offhand how many Instagram followers Joe Burrow has or
Kyrie Irving or but you saw what Kyrie Irving did
(17:28):
last fall. They can make a difference. And if athlete
A doesn't want to see Donald Trump become president, he
or she has a voice, and I think you're going
to see a willingness that you did not see in
the past other than from a very select few, to
use that voice to I think a positive end. And
(17:52):
any opinion is a good opinion, I would say about athletes,
and you know, just have an opinion.
Speaker 7 (17:56):
I don't care whether you go left or right or
do this deal.
Speaker 4 (17:58):
Don't do this deal.
Speaker 6 (17:59):
I just want to do.
Speaker 8 (18:00):
You have an opinion, so we say that a lot
of them about politics, have an opinion.
Speaker 4 (18:03):
It matters. It's going to affect your lives.
Speaker 3 (18:06):
As I said, promised to come back soon because we'll
do more. We will, obviously, Mark Patrickoff, President CEO of
Patricoff Company, joining us here in studio.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station
Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 9 (18:34):
Well.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
The CEOs of some of the biggest US banks, including
Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan, Brian moynihano Bank of America,
and Jane Frazier of City Group, spent much of the
day testifying before the Senate Banking Committee. They made a
lot of news, perhaps unsurprisingly, they rallied against regulator's proposals
to raise capital for the biggest banks. Here's JP Mortgan's
Jamie Diamond.
Speaker 10 (18:55):
We had ten years to do this and it's shocking
to meet it. With city after ten years and told
me about what they're going to do for small business,
and we have to analyze it today. It was not
thoughtfully done. I'm not sure was shared fully among all
the regulators. This should be we looked at all.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
Right.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
That's Jamie Diamond, of course, CEO of JP Morgan up
on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
He doesn't dum mince words.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
No, he's not bashful having.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
No, he's not. He went on to say that they
will hurt lower income borrowers. GOLDMNZAXSIO David Solomon called the
new rules quote punitive to economic growth. O and Senator
Elizabeth Warren actually found some common ground carol with the bankers.
Speaker 7 (19:27):
Yeah, she did.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
Shanelli Basek and Kat Doherty they've been all over this
story today. Shanali is Wall Street reporter for Bloomberg News.
She's in our DC bureau, back from Capitol Hill where
she's been since the early hours of the morning. And Kat,
of course is finance reporter here at Bloomberg News. She
joins us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Nali, let's
start with you. It's an annual thing, but give us
some background history, origin of these get togethers between Wall
(19:52):
Street and Washington and I'm glad you're back in where
it's warmer.
Speaker 9 (19:56):
Yeah, exactly, it was quite cold outside this morning. But yes,
these really started back by Maxine Waters back in twenty
nineteen at the House. This year it wasn't at the House.
It was mostly at the Senate, and so the Senate
really has shepherd this since twenty twenty one under the
leadership of Ohio Democratic Senator Shared Brown. There were a
(20:17):
lot of reasons that this was happening. One is a
lot of concern about banking services and low income communities
in rural communities across America, right before the pandemic, really
years before the pandemic, in.
Speaker 6 (20:31):
The wake of the murder of George Floyd.
Speaker 9 (20:33):
That was a really important moment in all this as well,
because the banks were really pressed on their commitments to
racial equity across America. Why black homeowners were not getting
mortgages at the same rate in a refinancing boom in
really the lowest interest rates we've seen in a generation.
And now on the flip side, they're getting questions in
the other direction, why is it so hard for everyone
(20:55):
to get a mortgage? Why are they retreating from the
mortgage business at such a flat fast clip, and a
lot of that they can blame on regulation. And they
certainly are using this moment to blame regulation for why
they are getting out of certain businesses in certain areas
across America.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
But I mean regulation is one thing. But mortgages are
down because rates are up kats, so you know, the
Fed has raised rates to bat tame inflation. And when
you see the rise sits, you see the.
Speaker 11 (21:23):
Big the big banks backing out of the mortgage business.
Has really it was before interest rates started going up,
and it tracks back to where it comes down to
is it a profitable business? And Diamond had a quote
today where he basically talked about loans. It could apply
to mortgages just lending in general. When these banks are
(21:46):
looking at each business line, especially the big ones like
BAA and JP Morgan that have different units that all
have to report up to the one entity that ends
up saying how much revenue their generation in year, and
they have to show that to shareholders. If there is
something that is not making them money and it ends
(22:06):
up like the math doesn't work out, they're going to
make that business decision to say this is not something
that is benefiting our business, and they do have to
the only reason that like a Bank of America hasn't
exited completely from mortgages is because they want to be
a provider for their clients in a wholesome way. So
(22:27):
if you have a someone that has a checking account
a saving account with you, and then they come and
they say I also want to have a mortgage with you,
they want to say, okay, we can do that as well.
But they're not doing it in a big way. They're
not going out and I don't think.
Speaker 6 (22:43):
That you would.
Speaker 11 (22:43):
I would be surprised to see an advertisement from one
of the big banks saying hey, you can have a
mortgage with us, because it's not something that they're touting.
So it really isn't tied to interest rates going up.
You make a good point of where we're at today
and that there aren't as many folk folks out there
looking for mortgages because people are sitting and waiting for
(23:04):
interest rates to go down. So yes, in this economic environment,
the banks, even and non banks that provide mortgages, aren't
lending as much for housing. But that doesn't have to
do with the bank's business decision to back out of
that business.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Yeah, I think it's kind of interesting. I think about
the Wells Farga remote that we did that really trying
to I mean they've got a lot of issues or
have for years, but really trying to move in terms
of their diversity lending and because there's been a lot
of criticism for them specifically to not only what's stood
out for you in terms of the questioning, It's always
kind of remarkable when I see like a pan of
a camera against these very notable CEOs, many of them,
(23:45):
most of them, a lot of them household names, Like
we know who they are, people in general do, and
we follow them very closely. So what was notable for you?
Speaker 6 (23:54):
One moment that was the most notable?
Speaker 9 (23:56):
Was it exchange that Elizabeth Warren Senator Elizabeth Warren, who
is the toughest on the banks, that she had with
the bank CEOs. She seems to have turned her focus
very largely to crypto. She has been very focused on
the abuses in the crypto industry, particularly when it comes
to anti money launding, and she asks each of the
bankers whether they agreed that those crypto firms should be
(24:17):
subject to the same manni money laundering rules that the
banking system is today. Each of them said absolutely, And
so you had this strange moment that hasn't happened.
Speaker 6 (24:26):
For years, so publicly, where Elizabeth.
Speaker 9 (24:28):
Warren and the banking system were on the same side.
I did catch up with her right after the hearing
in person as well, and one thing I asked her
that she would not explicitly answer is whether she would
be willing to regulate the private capital system.
Speaker 6 (24:41):
And this is a system.
Speaker 9 (24:43):
For example, private credit has ballooned to a one point
five trillion dollar industry so far and fast growing.
Speaker 6 (24:50):
And that's where the bankers.
Speaker 9 (24:52):
Are trying to draw their attention to, saying that if
you squeeze us more, most of the activity is going
to non banks. They point to private credit in particular.
Even the mortgage system is now the top three by
the number of mortgages originated last year, and none of
them are the big banks.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
Kat I feel like the big bank the publicly, right,
they've got to be bristling.
Speaker 11 (25:11):
Right, Well, yeah, I mean she's always tying it all together, right,
like when when you talk about the CEO showing up
today and they were just guns ablazing going after a
new regulation that they're facing and there was a big
emphasis on saying if you do this, they said, number one,
we'll be able to handle it. It's not as if
our balance sheets aren't strong enough to uh to take
(25:34):
whatever you're throwing at us. However, we're going to back away,
and this will push businesses or if the businesses that
we back away from or we're like pulling back because
we have to abide by this new regulation, others will
step in. And that means that the activity that you're
trying to regulate will just move to an area that
(25:56):
you can't even see.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
What's going on, so called shadow banks, shadow banking.
Speaker 11 (26:00):
The private credit market. So it really it's an interesting
like you see the activity already happening, and they're capitalizing
on that. They're trying to point out that the intention
of Basel three might actually start moving the activity and
be the opposite. It might be into an area that's
not protected, not regulated.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
If five time, I want to ask this of both
of you, but are they right? Shanali and I mean
just as both of you, you know, look at private
credit or the private world. You look at obviously the
publicly held banks. You know, increasingly we're just seeing that
private lending world just kind of continue to grow and
be a bigger part of kind of the lending world.
(26:43):
And I do wonder we all wonder, you know, what's
going on that we don't know about.
Speaker 9 (26:48):
Listen, there's a really interesting report that we're going to
be writing about later this week that basically cites that,
and it's a giant in the industry that's going to
be talking.
Speaker 6 (26:56):
About how private credit is actually a bigger.
Speaker 9 (26:59):
Problem in terms of potential defaults in the future because
it's hidden all those problems and their medium and small businesses,
although not so small that you know, they're still missing
a large swath of society here. Can we also just
talk about how much the narrative has shifted, because this
used to be a quite hostile affair in the last
several years. The last couple of years they had these hearings,
(27:19):
and it's almost like.
Speaker 6 (27:20):
The tides of shifts shifted.
Speaker 9 (27:22):
The banks have understood that they need to play ball
with these regulators and these lawmakers. If they play ball
in some ways, then they get other things in return.
And by the way, they were the big saviors of
the industry.
Speaker 6 (27:34):
This year.
Speaker 9 (27:34):
They got together, they put capital together to make sure
that one bank didn't fail in a disorderly manner.
Speaker 6 (27:40):
You know, it's amazing all they have.
Speaker 9 (27:43):
And I've got to say, you know, this morning, the
first thing I saw this morning was David Solomon hanging
out with James Gorman and Brian coming to meet them,
and it's kind of like they've all gotten their act together.
They have a coordinated message, and their message is we
play a role here, we play an important role here.
You're not gonna want to shunt us too badly because
(28:05):
you need us. And the lawmakers seem to fall in
line with that story.
Speaker 11 (28:10):
They know how to play the game. They're walking in
here today and they have a strategy. Yeah, they're they're
they're saying, like, here we are and we showed up
during the regional banking crisis.
Speaker 3 (28:22):
It's a really good point, you guys. We have to
run love it. This was such a good roundtable. Shanali
Basik and Kat Doherty.
Speaker 12 (28:29):
A brother mac.
Speaker 4 (28:33):
A journal.
Speaker 6 (28:34):
How about you let me drive? No, no, no no, who's
going to drive?
Speaker 7 (28:39):
Honey? Please?
Speaker 4 (28:40):
How do the riding gravel ecles? Mate?
Speaker 3 (28:42):
I want to drive?
Speaker 6 (28:43):
It's good question.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
This is the drive to the globe. Well yold Don
on Bluebird Radio.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
All Right, everybody, Uh, just about eighteen minutes left in
today's trading session. Yeah, we're at our lows of the
day when it comes to the equity trade.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
Yeah, but as we just heard from Bill Maloney, we
saw early gains in the day. It's kind of an
interesting move, right. If you go to HCPI D on
the Bloomberg terminal, you can see that five hundred was
up as much as half a percentage point early in
the session. Love's the day about three to four tons
of one percent, so you know, quite a bit of move.
Speaker 3 (29:25):
Yeah that was. That was then that's not now though.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Yeah, you're right, just giving you a hard time. Someone's
already on vacation, just a little sierily.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
All right, So let's get to it because our next
guest expects two to three rate cuts in the new year.
With more on her thinking and what that may portend
for US docs, it's time for the drive to the closed.
Nattia Level is with us. She's senior US equity strategist
at UBS glowth Global Wealth Management, and she's with us
on zoom in New York City. Natty, how are you.
Speaker 10 (29:54):
I am?
Speaker 4 (29:55):
Wow?
Speaker 3 (29:55):
How are you I'm doing okay, do it well. I'm
ready to kind of put a bow on the year.
To be quite honest, it's been dense. It's been a
lot of stuff, a lot of big stories, and a
lot of twists and turns and volatility for investors to
deal with. So let's get to your premise, your macro
environment for the US equity market. Two to three rate
(30:16):
cuts a year. What do you why and when do
you anticipate that they might come through.
Speaker 12 (30:22):
We think that that actually won't come through until the
middle of the year. We actually think that the market
current pricing is a bit aggressive. We've seen this massive
pendulum swing to to do fish a bit too quickly
from our hard pivot from higher for longer. Right now,
the market is pricing in over one hundred and thirty
basis points for cuts next year. I mean even Chairman
(30:42):
Powell tried to push back on this last week, even
though a bit unsuccessful. But we think that the Fed
is going to remain patient. We should start to see
inflation moderate further than the first half of the year,
and that will put the Fed in the position to cut.
And one could argue that the financial market is actually
already doing some of the work for the fedt He
did see a massive ease and in financial conditions in November,
(31:04):
like to the highest sort of the biggest drop that
you've seen in multiple decades, and so we think that
the FED will use that to its advantage as well.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
What it's the concern though, that that could actually change
your hypothesis of you know, two to three rate cuts
next year. What would cause you to reverse that view?
Would say, actually, the FED does need to hold rates
higher for longer.
Speaker 12 (31:26):
It will be the inflation out look. I mean, growth
seems to be holding in there and the disinflation trend
does seem to be brought in out. But if we
do get a pause in that and sort of any
free acceleration or stall out in inflation, that could keep
the FED higher for longer to make sure that inflation
does not raise its head aggressively again. And so if
(31:47):
we don't see inflation and we might get a hot
print next week, I just want to preface that. But
we don't think that one data point is going to
train the trajectory. But if we get a few hot prints,
two or three hot prints, that that could keep the
FED higher for it.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
Does feel like now that we're kind of we can
see the light at the end of the tunnel when
it comes to perhaps FED policy. What is so important
is I feel like tim those trend lines we're talking
about that with Michael McKenzie, Like this idea that the
monthly jobs report that we get on Friday, it's not
just the November read, it's the December read, it's the
(32:20):
January read, it's the February read that gives the FED kind.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
Of too that already happened.
Speaker 7 (32:29):
Yeah, but like.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
A trend line that continues, right that it's not just
kind of a blip on the data screen.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
And Nattie, one thing I have to ask you is
it does seem like every piece of data we get
is sort of feeding that narrative right now. I mean,
is there any data that you can point to that
we've gotten over the past couple of weeks that actually
says that there is not going to be a soft landing?
Speaker 6 (32:51):
You know.
Speaker 12 (32:51):
Of course, we continue to watch some of the ICEM data,
particularly on the manufacturing, so that's been a contraction for
quite some time. I mean, it was encouraged to see services,
you know, improve, but that's something that we're watching and
of course, as we all know, we all watching the
labor market because you know, any sort of weakness in
that will impact consumer spending, and the consumer has been
helping to prop up this economy. We're hearing continue positive
(33:15):
commentary from some of the banks this past week at
the industry conference about the consumer. And so if the
consumer gets concerned about you know, possibility of job loss,
and we could see a stallin and consumer spending and
that and that would not equate to our soft lending.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
All right, So would you suggest any kind of changes
in an investor's portfolio here on Wednesday, December sixth, or
perhaps do you wait till after the FED meeting next week,
or do you just kind of sit tight and wait
for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 12 (33:46):
I think at this point the year has been already
made and you sort of sit tight and wait for
next year. And if you do get a pull back
in the market, assuming that the growth data still holds
in there, then you might want to consider buying that
if the market has had a pretty strong rally. But
from a position to a standpoint, we're maintaining our position
in terms of being positive on tech into twenty four.
(34:09):
We do think that there's opportunity and energy, particularly on
this pullback has been very painful of the last couple
of months in energy, and then you want to add
some defensive exposure in terms of consumer stables. But overall,
we think that you want to maintain a quality portfolio.
So those stocks that really continue to deliver a high
return on invested capital, those stocks that still have those
(34:30):
companies that have strong BALOGYEP.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
What kind of pullback could we see.
Speaker 12 (34:36):
You could see some consolidation here, some digestion, which we
actually think would be healthy for this market after such
a massive rally, the best that we have seen in
all the year, and we did have a strong year
to begin with, and so some consolidation would be healthy,
but we think that that's likely to be short lived.
You still have some potential seasonal factors that could be
at play here, the typical sand Claus rally in the
(34:58):
January or fact and you still have some buybacks that
could help support this market. And overall you have the
earners recovery. So that's why we don't think that there's
much downside to this market. The earners recovery should continue
to gain some momentum into twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
Well That's what I want to ask you. Fundamentally, like
we can all speculate about what the Fed's going to do,
what they're going to say, but ultimately they're going to
say and do what they want to when they meet
and discuss, and then we'll get the outcome. But having
said that, fundamentally, when you look at valuations, and there's
a lot of different ways right to dice and slice
in terms of market caps or growth versus value. But
(35:34):
when you look at it, do you feel like fundamentally
there is room more for equity gains?
Speaker 12 (35:41):
Yes, I mean you finally have earnings back in the block,
the consumers holding in there, and so we think that
you can get high single digit earnest growth next year,
and if the economy remains in solid full that you
could even get double digit growth. I mean even like
a sectoral life tech where you say, wow, the sector
is up a lot this year, there's still more left
to go. We think so because when you look at tech,
(36:02):
this is a se that could deliver double digit road
next year for all stripping that of the market. It's
not cheap, yes, you know, but it just does have
those improvement fundamentals. That's happening, and it does tick the
box on the on the positive side of the legend,
a lot of those things that I talked about quality
in particular, and you are seeing continue momentum in AI.
(36:22):
We heard that coming out of the UBS Tech Conference
from last week. Tone overall, tone has been encouraged and
you're seeing the bottom en in the semi en market.
So the point is that things are improvement for corporations
despite the fact that you might see some slowdown in
the economic data.
Speaker 3 (36:38):
Interesting, All right, good stuff, Hey listen, Thanks and if
we don't see you before the end of the year,
Happy New Year, Happy holidays. Nadia level level excuse me,
of course, senior US equity strategist at EBS Global Wealth Management.
Joining us on zoom in New York City.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
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