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April 15, 2025 16 mins

Kim Forrest, Founder and CIO of Bokeh Capital Partners, discusses why the  tariff war has highlighted people's short term views on the market and to "keep calm and invest on." Plus, Bloomberg Tech Reporter Riley Griffin on RFK Jr. warning his FDA staff of ‘Deep State’ in All-Hands Meeting

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business
Weekdaily with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.
Kind of this.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Measure of calm returning to wall streets somewhat odd today. Well,
that's exactly where I want to start. We got Kim
Forrest with us. She's founder and chief investment officer at
Boca Capital Partner. She joins us from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We
wanted you on the show today, Kim, because I wanted
to talk technology with you. You have a great background
in tech. Before you were even an analyst or looking

(00:40):
at stocks, you were an engineer. You've been thinking about
AI for decades at this point, so we wanted to
get some time with you. But I want to start
big picture because Carol looked at me when Amy was
just doing the numbers, and she said, this is a
weird day. Is this a weird day?

Speaker 3 (00:56):
It is a weird day. So I think last night,
if you looked at the future, it was going to
be off to the races, and it's not really doing
that at all. Right, I mean, it's it's kind it's
a good day. It's not a great day. So why
is this. I think part of it is, I hate
to point this out, there's passover in Easter at the

(01:16):
end of this week. So I'm going to guess that
there's a lot of people that are not at their
trading desks, and maybe even some retail investors that this
day of trading is passing them by.

Speaker 2 (01:27):
Oh so you think that's what it is. You think
it's just light volume and it's not.

Speaker 3 (01:32):
Well, I think that's part of it. That's that was
the beginning of my thought. The end of it is,
I think the carve out of special exemptions is confusing
to people, and I don't know that they think it's
long lived. Like today we're getting information about autos right

(01:53):
that they're going to get some kind of special exemption.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Perhaps the President's yeah, there's no confirmation of that at
this point. The President said there could be something.

Speaker 3 (02:05):
Okay, but you see what I'm saying here.

Speaker 4 (02:08):
Everything as Kim is the point that he's even shown
a willingness after it, like nope, this is it, this
is it, And then all of a sudden, like you've
got a ninety day pause and wait a bite, Now
we might help this. Oh, but I'm going to double
down on this, like it's kind of we thought it
was firm set forget it, and now we're we're saying, oh,

(02:29):
wait a minute, we can kind of crack the door
open a little bit, right.

Speaker 3 (02:34):
And I think what the problem is is this. I
think everybody, even market participants, underestimate how complicated and how
interconnected all of our products are. And I think especially
the you know, Apple certainly somehow got to the president
and told them, you know, or they're the committee, you know,

(02:57):
the people that are the administration. That's the word I
wanted the administration that he didn't really understand how embedded
their products are to be made in China and it's
not just like oops, we can throw up a factory
in out incomes. So I think all of that is
a discovery for this administration how interconnected all of the

(03:18):
products in the world are.

Speaker 2 (03:20):
Do you think it's realistic for investors to think that
Apple will somehow be spared from tariffs.

Speaker 3 (03:28):
I don't think they'll be spared entirely from tariffs, but
I do think because it's a big, beautiful company that
is a shining light in the world. You know, when
you think Apple, you think American, right, because that's what
we are. And if you're buying it in France, you're
buying an American phone, even though it's made in China.
So I do believe that carve outs will probably be

(03:51):
necessary for some of our larger companies.

Speaker 4 (03:55):
What's it been like over the last couple of weeks
to manage money and think about investing here.

Speaker 3 (04:00):
It's been exhausting, But you know, that's what we get
paid for, right We're supposed to think really hard about
what the future could be and what the future is
likely to be, and how do we grow our investors' money.
That's what we're supposed to do.

Speaker 4 (04:15):
But do you know what the future is going to be?
Because you know, when you have folks like David Solomon
of Goldman Sachs, I've got to go back, but he
you know, he talked on the earnings call today uncertainty
around the path vote and fears over the potentially escalating
effects of a trade where I've created material risks to
the US and global economy. That's a big deal. We
are encouraged by the administration's recent actions to pursue a

(04:38):
more gradual policy process that allows for considered negotiations with
many countries, but how policies will evolve is still unknown.
How do you make investments when you don't know whether
the tariffs will really stick or some kind of tariffs
will stick, not just for ninety days or three months
or six months, but maybe throughout whole Trump term.

Speaker 3 (05:03):
Well, you've asked me a philosophical question, and I'm going
to give you a philosophical answer. Do any of us
really know what the future brings? And I'm going to
say no, But we all have a pretty good idea
that tomorrow the sun's going to come up and that
products that people really want, the companies that make them
are going to find a way to try to get

(05:24):
them into company or to their customer's hands. Now, I
think what the markets have been doing and wisely, is
giving everybody a little bit of a haircut, to say
the least, some more than others. And instead of being fearful,
you say, well, you know, we'll pick on Apple. Apple
probably has these what it has a product that there

(05:48):
really is no comparison you can get Samsung. They're all
great products, but once people buy into the Apple ecosphere,
it's really hard to get them out right. So the
best way to think about this is. Yes, there's uncertainty,
and there's probably going to be somewhat higher prices, but
we don't know what that looks like. But again, Apple's

(06:09):
going to do its very best, whether that's deploying lobbyists
or bringing as much of the products that it can
make back here back here, whatever it takes to be
able to serve their customers. That's what they're going to do.
And I think a lot of people get fearful and
paralyzed and think, you know, the end of the world
is nigh, and that's just faulty thinking.

Speaker 2 (06:32):
Kim, Well, we have you. I want to talk a
little bit about the Nvidia news that we got earlier today.
The company plans to produce up to five hundred billion
dollars of AI gear in the US. This is AI
infrastructure in the US over the next four years through
manufacturing partnerships. This would be Blackwell production at TSMC's new

(06:53):
plant in Phoenix. In Vidia is building supercomputer manufacturing plants
in Texas with fox Con and Wisdrawn and partnering with
amcor Tech and stil can Wear Precision Industries for packaging
and testing operations in Arizona. What does this mean to you.

Speaker 3 (07:08):
Well, I think this is this is not new news,
it's news that is highlighted, right.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
I keep hearing this, yeah them from people go ahead, sorry,
I keep hearing this, or like you're not the first
person to say this. It's like this was expected.

Speaker 3 (07:22):
Well right, well, this, you know, AI is really great,
but it can't make plants come out of the desert
in you know, fifteen minutes or less. I'm being glib here,
but no, I mean it's been their deployment of capital
has been ongoing, and this is all well and good

(07:43):
that they're announcing that the Blackwell product in particular might
be made here, which I think that's probably very comforting
to the US companies who want to buy it. And
the US companies are the ones that want this. That
would be Meta, Microsoft, you know, even Amazon, although they're
trying to build their own competitor to Blackwell. So I

(08:06):
think this is soothing to investors that may not realize
the amount of time and effort that's needed to bring
up one of these plants. So that's why it's a
yawn to us who have already kind of figured out
what was going on in the desert, which was going
to be the higher end chips, And I have to say,
I think this is probably just a smart idea because

(08:28):
Nvidio as well as many other companies exhibited some real
delays during COVID to get their products out of Taiwan,
and I think it's probably a risk reduction that had
nothing to do with tariffs. It was a move to
help them be able to get their supply when they
needed it.

Speaker 4 (08:46):
Hey, KiB just got about forty five fifty seconds a
minute left here. Have you been buying any of the
big tech names, big cap tech names as they've sold off.

Speaker 3 (08:59):
I can't tell you which ones, but yeah, we've been
taking advantage of the price to colines.

Speaker 4 (09:05):
We'll put it so, yes, Okay, but.

Speaker 3 (09:10):
I can't really tell you when like compliance just doesn't
let you do that.

Speaker 4 (09:14):
No, But I'm just saying so you are seeing some
opportunities here and certainly sounds like you've been putting right.

Speaker 3 (09:19):
Absolutely, especially if you have a longer timeline. That's important.

Speaker 4 (09:24):
All right, good stuff, Kim, Thank you so much. Kim Forrest,
founder and chief investment officer at Book of Capital Partners,
joining us from Pittsburgh.

Speaker 2 (09:31):
We did see this story cross on Friday evening and
we knew we had to speak to Riley Griffin. Next
chance we had that chance is now. HHS Secretary Robert F.
Kennedy Junior warned FDA administration staff about the influence of
the Deep State on the agency in an all hands
meeting on Friday, where he had also made off color
comments about children with developmental disabilities. Riley Griffin is a

(09:54):
technology reporter who focuses on meta platforms, but in her
previous life she covered all things health care policy and politics,
and that's where we want to start with her. Now
she joins us from our San Francisco bureau. Riley, what
was this all hands meeting on Friday?

Speaker 3 (10:09):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (10:09):
On Friday, much to the surprise of FDA staffers themselves,
they were invited to a meeting in which RFK Junior
was speaking directly to staff over a video. There were
watch parties at FDA's headquarters, and the remarks that RFK
Junior made really stunned them. It was wide ranging, expanding

(10:31):
from conversation about the Deep State and CIA in RFK
Junior's own words, to what he described as an autism
epidemic and his own experience working with children with developmental
disabilities using comments that really frustrated, disturbed some of these staffers,
some of whom walked out of rooms looked at each

(10:53):
other in disbelief. It was just a day of shock
for folks on campus at a time where HHS is
facing a massive restructuring too. So Friday news dump for you, Tim.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
Well, you succeeded in that. I was walking home and
I was like, what is this?

Speaker 4 (11:10):
It's crazy? Or I don't know that I should I guess,
I guess I would say it's crazy. So what are
staffers doing? Obviously, these people have been put in place
to ensure that when it comes to drugs, when it
comes to food, that things are done in a way
that brings no harm to American citizens. So I'm just

(11:33):
curious about what are they doing. Remind us to the
Doze impact that we've seen rolled it all together for us, Rightley.

Speaker 5 (11:41):
Yeah, So Doge, the new administration, broadly under this reorg,
is expecting about twenty thousand HHS employees to be gone
after all a said and done. And that includes people
who take that fork in the road email and choose
to leave. That include foods, early retirees, and that includes

(12:02):
people who are essentially laid off within FDA, the Food
and Drug Administration that we're talking about here, that's about
three thousand, five hundred staffers, and they do all sorts
of things. Industry analysts, for example, expect this could have
a kind of headwind on the drug approval process, which
is really interesting because earlier you're talking about the headline

(12:23):
that just crossed the wire as the Trump administration looks
to secure the pharmaceutical supply chain with tariffs, ultimately using
commerce to assess a national security risk there. So these
two things may not necessarily be achieving the same end.
The layoffs in the FDA and the terriff policy.

Speaker 4 (12:44):
You know, Riley were laying out the numbers, AHHS, twenty
thousand are expected to be gone. FDA thirty five hundred.
I believe you said to leave who's left? How many
are left? Who's left?

Speaker 5 (12:55):
I believe that puts us about forty thousand folks, But
I would have to double check that number for you.
But it's still sizable. Yeah, yes, it's a sizable cut.
Is the takeaway that twenty thousand folks would be gone,
and among those thirty five hundred to the Food and
Drug Administration, Yeah, it's about.

Speaker 4 (13:12):
Third right, gone, that's wild.

Speaker 2 (13:14):
Hey, before we let you go, I mentioned you know
you're out there in San Francisco, you are covering meta platforms.
But I still want you to live in this world
of pharmaceuticals and drugs, because that is the news that's
breaking right now. The President pressed forward with plans to
impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports by initiating probes

(13:35):
led by the Commerce Department. What do we know about
these sectoral tariffs? And I mean, I mean you cover
technology too, so you're looking closely at sectoral tariffs for technology.
But is there a way to easily make these drugs
in the US that that's the whole point of these tariffs.

Speaker 5 (13:51):
Yeah, it's a really complicated question because the pharmaceutical manufacturing
supply chain at this point is a global one, and
it's not just the finished final but the underlying materials
that are used to make these different drugs, biologics, the
kinds that you inject, even components of pills are coming
from all over the world, many from China, many from India,

(14:14):
and so these tariffs certainly will be impactful. I know
we're hearing about impacts on pharmaceutical stocks of US drug makers.
But this is breaking with precedent. Historically, medicines haven't been
caught in the trade war, if you are to use
those terms, because of the impact that it has on

(14:35):
the average person. Yes, time will tell.

Speaker 2 (14:38):
I'm so glad you went there. I mean, I think
Carol knows this story because there was an antibiotic shortage
a couple of years ago and I was at the
doctor with my son was four at the time, and
it's got this terrible ear infection. He's in pain. And
we sat there with the doctor calling pharmacies all over
New York City to try to find antibiotics. And I

(14:58):
was thinking to myself, this, he's not part of her job.
She's not seeing other patients right now. This is taking
her thirty minutes to do something that should be done
in seconds on a computer.

Speaker 4 (15:07):
And where you're also thinking, this doesn't happen in America exactly.

Speaker 2 (15:10):
And I'm so concerned, Riley, are we getting to a
point where and where this could happen with other drugs?

Speaker 5 (15:18):
I think it is too early to tell, especially since
it's only just a launching of the probe. Right this
is the precursor to full blown blown tariffs, so we'll
have to see how this unfolds. But yeah, I mean
everybody in this country takes a medicine or knows someone
who takes a medicine, so the impact is high. And

(15:40):
you know, we have the same concern that you have
for your child in that moment what this will mean
for the supply chain here. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (15:48):
Kind of fascinating, right, and disturbing perhaps on a lot
of levels as we understand, whether it's pharmaceuticals, whether it's technology,
none of these things can you can't flip a switch
and all of a sudden supply chain moves. Riley, thank
you so much. Really appreciate your knowledge and understanding of
this area. Riley Griffin, she is a US tech reporter,

(16:08):
but she's also spent a lot of time reporting on
certainly the healthcare informat space for US here at Bloomberg,
but she joins us there about on the West Coast.
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