May 5, 2025 • 31 mins
The 28th annual Milken Institute Global Conference will, in the organization’s own words, “unite our catalytic community to tackle challenges and seize the opportunity to collectively shape our shared future.” The conference aims to tackle our world’s most pressing issues from climate change to geopolitical hotspots to AI complexities, examining impact on markets and workers globally.
On this special edition of the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast, hear some of the top conversations from our first day at Milken, with hosts Carol Massar and Romaine Bostick live from the conference.
On this episode, we hear from:
- Carlyle Group Co-Chairman David Rubenstein
- US Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel
- Man Group President Robyn Grew
- FCC Chairman Brendan Carr
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business
Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders
stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends
shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance and tech
(00:23):
news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast
with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
On Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Carol Master with Romain Bostik here at Milkin in Beverly Hills.
Right now, we've got David Rubinstein, Carlisle Group co chairman,
co founder and host of course of The David Rubinstein
Show here to beer conversations, appearing on Bloomberg, who's also
principal owner of Major League Baseball's Baltimore Oriols.
Speaker 4 (00:49):
We always like to point head as it is so.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Loud here it is. You know, we've been doing this
all day.
Speaker 5 (00:55):
You come up here right and you're the only person
we want to talk to, you know, in all serious
is so David, we want to know what you think
about some of the comments that we heard from Scott
Bessett earlier today and his message to investors. Did that
message resonate with you?
Speaker 6 (01:13):
I think he did a very good job. Yeah, obviously
the business people have been concerned about tariffs and not
knowing where it's going to go.
Speaker 7 (01:20):
He came out and basically more.
Speaker 6 (01:22):
Or less repeated what he had said in the Wall
Street Journal article today, which is there are three elements
of the economic program. One is tariffs, the other's tax cuts,
the other's deregulation. And I think he did a really
good job of explaining why all three meshed together. Now
they have to get these things done. But if they
can get the tax cut through, they can get the
deregulation they want through. I think the Business Committee be
reasonably happy. The tariffs is still a bit of a
(01:46):
problem for the business committees. They don't fully understand what
the endgame is. But I think Scott Bessett did a
pretty good job.
Speaker 5 (01:51):
Obviously, Carlisle has a huge presence in Washington.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
You know how that city works.
Speaker 5 (01:57):
The business friendly administration that was during the campaign. Is
that still intact or is that still going to show up.
Speaker 6 (02:04):
I think the business community by and large is willing
to give the Trump administration the benefit of the doubt
because the business community can extent that business people tend
to be CEOs and not say investors and Republican perhaps
they want to have this administration succeed. They're a little
bit confused about the tariffs, but I think they're willing
to give the benefit of the doubt to the administration. Now,
(02:27):
the tax cut bill is what people are focused on,
and I will interview on a Bloomberg show soon the
chairman of the of the House Ways and Means Committee,
Jason Smith, and they are starting to getting ready to
have hearings and.
Speaker 7 (02:41):
Mark up that bill.
Speaker 6 (02:42):
And whether that bill goes in the direction the Business
Committee wants, we don't know, but I think the tax
cut or what the administration thinks is going to happen.
Speaker 7 (02:48):
The question is can you really afford it?
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Well, that's what I want to ask you, David. Can
we afford with the deficit?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
You can afford it.
Speaker 6 (02:57):
If you depends on how you matt massage and numbers.
There's a four trillion dollar number that they haven't figured
out how to deal with yet, which is to say
they want to make certain tax cuts permanent but not
count the four trillion dollars as part of the deficit.
That's an unusual thing to do. Maybe they can get
away with it. I don't know.
Speaker 5 (03:17):
Are the people you're talking to though, whether it's on
your shows on Bloomberg, whether it's privately with regards to
your business, are they still optimistic?
Speaker 6 (03:26):
Business people by and large tend to be optimistic by nature.
They don't really think things are going to be better
than things that are not.
Speaker 7 (03:31):
Going to be good.
Speaker 6 (03:32):
So I think people are hoping that the administration could
get the tax cut bill.
Speaker 7 (03:37):
Through, the deregulation through.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
They hope that somebody can come along and get some
of these tariffs agreements agree to. I think Scott Descent
is a really smart guy, and I think he's done
a pretty good job so far representing the administration. I
think he's their best voice on the economy by far.
Speaker 5 (03:52):
Has anyone approached you about being involved in this administration,
whether an informal or informal.
Speaker 7 (03:57):
I think that's not likely.
Speaker 6 (03:58):
This administration fired from being chair of the Chenny Centers,
I think probably I'm not the verse choice. But now
I think my days are making government are probably behind us.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
All right, David, really appreciate this time, my boy.
Speaker 7 (04:09):
Thanks you on here, Dank Okay.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
Sorry, you're a good sport. Thank you, Thank you so much.
Speaker 5 (04:13):
Carlisle Group Co founder and co chair, but also of
course the hosts of the show.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Period of peer.
Speaker 8 (04:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch US
live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen
on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (04:33):
All right, a great conversation right now, live on the
milk and Stage where we focus on government policy and
more importantly budgets. We talk about tax collection here in
the USA. Those projections are down, refunds they're up, and
that's a formula that could dampen government revenue and poor
ten an earlier deadline for Congress to raise the debt
(04:53):
ceiling or risk a federal payments to fault. Philip Swegel
is the director of the US Congressional Budget Office in
each ooin to us now here on the milk and Stage.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Philip, great to have you here.
Speaker 7 (05:03):
Thanks so much.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Let's get right to it.
Speaker 5 (05:05):
Everyone's talking about this so called X state. I know
it's a squishy date, but when people look at tax receipts,
they look at the current situation in Congress right now,
is that date going to move up?
Speaker 9 (05:15):
You know, we still have it as late in the summer,
you know, into August, in September.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Each.
Speaker 9 (05:22):
Of course, it's possible that it can come forward depending
on the continued revenue, especially in June, but for now
we're comfortable with our later date that Congress has time
to act on it.
Speaker 5 (05:31):
The revenue you're seeing coming in, at least in the
most recent mouth, you're encouraged by that.
Speaker 9 (05:36):
You know, it was tracking reasonably well with our expectation,
and this is the projections that we made back in
January and February that the revenues are still in line
with that.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
One thing I want to ask you in terms of
real deficit reduction, because one of the things I just
did a global real estate panel and the thing that
they are most concerned about seem to be the growing
US deficit. What real construction work are we doing to
really reduce the deficit and what kind.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
Of pain might it impose on US citizens?
Speaker 9 (06:07):
Yeah, it's you know, I've seen the Treasury Secretary talk
about that. He was here at the Milking conference this
morning talking about it. He is writing in the Wall
Street Journal about it, and so I know he's focused
on it.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
I know the administration is focused on it.
Speaker 9 (06:20):
And that's it's important, it's necessary.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
It doesn't have to be done.
Speaker 9 (06:24):
Immediately, but that sense of this should be reassuring to
the American people.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Why do you say it doesn't have to be done immediately?
Many would have said ten years ago, fifteen years ago,
we would have had this conversation and talked about kicking
the can down the road.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
And here we are again.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Why is it not in an immediate problem?
Speaker 9 (06:41):
No, No, you're exactly right that in the past there's
been an urgency and then the lack of follow through,
the lack of action. And that's part of my message
is that we do as a country have time because
the rest of the world still sees US as a
country that's stable, that's secure, that's growing. There's lots of
volatility in the US and the policy environment now, and
that's a negative. We still have the trust of global
(07:03):
investors and that's what gives us time.
Speaker 5 (07:06):
How competent, though, are you right now? And your economic projections?
The Treasury secretary what's here? Earlier today he specifically called
out the CBO's GDP projections of two percent or so.
He's saying, in his view, that number should be closer
to three percent.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
What's the gap? Why does that gap?
Speaker 9 (07:23):
That's okay, No, no, the gap is understandable because what
CBO is doing is projecting the economy under career law,
and what the Treasury Secretary's doing is completely appropriate. He's
saying with the president's agenda, you know, he says, we,
you know, we the administration have a pro growth agenda.
He thinks that will be successful, and of course all
Americans hope it will be and that will boost economic
(07:45):
growth and if it does well, then that will be
good for everyone. We're looking we're just looking at different things.
So as we're looking at what was the economic trajectory
before the President's agenda, they're the balance.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
Though as well.
Speaker 5 (07:58):
So we don't quite know which policies will become law
or become real. I know that's going to take some time,
but we do know the contours of this administration. A
crackdown on immigration, which immigration, of course, to a certain extent,
has been a net positive at least on aggregate GDP
growth in this country. There's also a lot of issues
(08:18):
when it comes to the IRA which the Trump administration
is trying to scale back. When do you factor those
impacts in and the potential drag on growth.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Okay, no, no, you're putting your finger exactly in.
Speaker 9 (08:32):
The important question is that all of the change is happening,
both the executive actions and then the legislation being considered
by the Congress.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
How will those impact the economy?
Speaker 9 (08:41):
And so the executive action you mentioned on immigration, that
affects the labor force, That affects the economy, It affects
the federal budget.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
We are tracking that. It's still a little bit too
soon to know what is the long term impact of that.
Speaker 9 (08:53):
Is the decline in immigration temporary or is it a
long term factor, And that's the kind of thing we
are tracking. Our next update will be late spring, early summer,
and we will building that the IRA all the other
changes into that next update.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
You know many economists that would in terms of immigration
the importance in terms of feeding the labor market, providing
a younger population. They point to Japan, they point to
places like South Korea where folks are not having babies anymore,
and even in America in terms of the small families
that people are having. So I understand what you're saying,
but a lot of economists have done the research for
(09:29):
years about the importance of immigration in terms of the
health of economic growth for a nation.
Speaker 9 (09:35):
Yeah, yeah, no, it's it's what makes immigration a difficult
issue is that it's both an economic issue and you
pointed to the key economic.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Factors, but is a social issue.
Speaker 9 (09:45):
It's a political issue people worry about, you know, crime
and safety and then local communities, and it builds together
all those things. And then there's high skilled immigration and
low skilled immigration and those are connected as well in
the policy space. So that's what makes it a difficult
thing is because it brings together so many cross currents
(10:05):
in our society.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
I am curious when you guys think about the outlook.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
You do have.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
We're an earning season and we've been reporting on it,
and you do have companies come out with two scenarios
because they see it as one potentially where we are
no growth or in a recession and so it.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Doesn't look so good.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
We have another where things look pretty normal and we're
back to American exceptionalism. Tell us about the scenarios that
you are planning for, because that's very different in terms
of the US government with the physical pasturelic.
Speaker 9 (10:33):
SiOH No, you're right, and we at CBO have the
same dilemma as the companies to try to figure out
which trajectory are we going on, and of course there's
a spectrum between them. You know, we suspect the volatility
of the last month will lead to slower business investment,
reduce capital inflows, reduce foreign investment in the US. That
(10:53):
will tend to have a negative effect on growth. On
the other hand, if there are trade deals, if there's
changes in regulation that are pro.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Growth, that will go in the other direction.
Speaker 9 (11:03):
And that's where we're looking at, is to try to
figure out the balance between the sort of the downward pressures,
the volatility especially and the upward of the president's agenda.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
Is there a balance or are you leaning one way
or the other based on what we've seen so far.
Speaker 9 (11:18):
It's just too soon because there's a sense in which
we have all the volatility, we have all the negative parts,
and now we're waiting on the positive and that I'll
just say, you know, today CBO, we posted our first
cost estimate for the reconciliation Bill of the House Armed
Services Committee. So there's lots more to come as the
different committees in the House do their work and we
(11:38):
will analyze it.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
But it just gives you an education. There's a lot
more coming.
Speaker 9 (11:42):
There's a lot of legislative activity and that's the part
that's still to be written.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
The CBO independent, nonpartisan.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
Is there political pressure on you to make sure that
numbers look a certain way or a point in a
certain direction?
Speaker 7 (11:57):
You know?
Speaker 9 (11:58):
So I have benefited from fifty years of CBO being independent,
being nonpartisan. My predecessor's doing a good job, and that's
what members expect from from us, From me, they expect
honest analysis. Whatever the numbers are. They just want to
hear it, you know, And I don't want to disappoint people.
But if the numbers are not what they hope for,
(12:19):
that's just it's just another day.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
And that's just we're doing our job.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
So that means no pressure.
Speaker 10 (12:25):
You know.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
The pressure is really internal. We're trying to do a
good job.
Speaker 9 (12:29):
We want to be as complete as we can, as
comprehensive as we can, as transparent as we can, and
that's you know, that's really the pressure.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
All right, Well, I really appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
There's a lot going on on your end, so we
really appreciate you finding some time for.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
No thank you, I'm Bloombaro.
Speaker 4 (12:42):
Sure helps Ragel.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
Here's the US Congressional Budget Office Director joining us here
at Bilkin.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
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Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
As we get the intersection of the economy, of what's
going on in Washington, and of course what's going on
in financial markets. Financial markets that in many ways of
now blended together. A lot of people have used that
private markets to a certain extent have actually become the
new public markets. And while that might be overstated and
adjust a bit, the Ven diagram definitely shows a degree
(13:27):
of increasing overlap. So who better to kick things off
today than with Man Group, the world's largest listed hedge
fund company with about one hundred and seventy billion dollars
in assets spanning both public and private markets, a mix
of long only and alternative approaches across all major asset classes.
And now that I've pumped you up, please to say
that the person at the center of all that joined
(13:49):
us right now Robin Grew who helps lead themand group.
Great to see you here on the milk and stage
in LA.
Speaker 11 (13:54):
Thanks for having to me.
Speaker 5 (13:55):
Volatility in this market. If you're a broker dealer, probably
good for you. If you're a hedge fund man manager,
not so much.
Speaker 12 (14:02):
Well, listen, volatility is a place where we need to
lean in to do more.
Speaker 11 (14:08):
We are in volatile markets.
Speaker 12 (14:09):
We're not going back to a benign market environment, and
so in that space, we have to be prepared to
create diversified content and capability that's able to navigate these
markets to provide outsized returns or alpha returns to our investments.
Speaker 5 (14:26):
How do you do that though, because when you look
at the strategies that Man Group has a lot of
systemic strategy, systematic strategies, a lot of trend following strategies
that we've seen over the last few weeks and months,
does not necessarily perform optimally when there is so much
misdirection going on in the market.
Speaker 12 (14:45):
Totally totally, and they're not supposed to. I think that's
the thing that we need to be mindful of, and
a diversified portfolio we're going to have oursets and capabilities
and strategies that do perform, and we've seen that in credit,
both public and private. We've seen it in great active
equity management. We've seen it in multistrats. But you don't
(15:05):
see it in training because that whip saw in whiplashing
behavior doesn't work for it.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
But that's why when clients.
Speaker 12 (15:12):
Are talking to us about how do they position their portfolios,
they're looking at the things that will operate in markets
as we're seeing today, and they're also thinking about defensive alpha.
Speaker 11 (15:22):
And what we do know and what we've had history around,
is that when you have decades.
Speaker 12 (15:27):
Of experiencing momentum and trend strategies, they operate well when
this volatility slows down, and then you can find the
trains again.
Speaker 5 (15:37):
Do you expect that volatility to slow down anytime soon?
Speaker 12 (15:40):
I think that volatility is going to be here for
some time. It's whether the volatility is accompanied by whiplash behavior.
And that's what the markets are looking for. We're looking
for that consistency, something that is predictable and.
Speaker 11 (15:52):
Capable of being predicted.
Speaker 12 (15:54):
But there's no doubt that the opportunity sets across markets,
across jurisdictions are really interesting right now. One hundred days ago,
you might not have thought about Europe as a growth opportunity.
Today we sit here talking about that. We're looking at
Asia with a very different set of lenses. We're seeing
real opportunities for active and alternative investments, and it's about
(16:18):
staying calm through this time as well.
Speaker 11 (16:20):
But volatility, will it be here for some time? I
think so. Dispersion yep, I think so. But whiplash, let's
hope not forever.
Speaker 5 (16:28):
Look, you got a chance to hear what Scott Besson
had to say a little bit earlier at one of
the milk and panels here, But there was a really
interesting moment in that where he really turned to the
audience and looked straight at them and said, we're trying
to make everything more appealing for you, meaning for the
investors out there that are in this room. Do you
find any comfort in hearing those words out of Scott Besson?
Speaker 11 (16:51):
Absolutely?
Speaker 12 (16:52):
You know, we want this biggest, deepest capital market to
function really.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
Really well.
Speaker 11 (16:59):
We just also are good.
Speaker 12 (17:01):
To work by our clients to go and seek out
alpha wherever that may be, that out the thoms across
all markets. It's why we trade eight hundred plus markets
in the world. That's our job to do that, and
we do that for real individuals who have saved all
their lives, who put into their pension pots to be
their four one ks or the ras or the equivalents
(17:23):
elsewhere in the world. But yes, I think it's a
tremendous statement that we have Scott Bessel talking to us
about actually being supportive of markets. I think that's a
great thing.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Is that too little, too late?
Speaker 5 (17:36):
This is a room full of people from around the world,
and you know there's been a reallocation of capital, or
at least a rethink of whether to reallocate capital away
from the US to Europe, for example, or even to
other parts of the world.
Speaker 11 (17:49):
To not too late. I don't think so.
Speaker 12 (17:51):
I think we all look to the quality of the
US as an investible space.
Speaker 11 (17:56):
And again it's.
Speaker 12 (17:57):
The opportunity set that's out there. Is it a bad
thing that there's competition. Is there's a bad thing that
there's growth in Europe or an opportunity set in Asia
that's opening up.
Speaker 11 (18:09):
I don't think so.
Speaker 12 (18:10):
In the same way as I don't think it's a
bad thing that we're seeing the opportunities in private.
Speaker 11 (18:14):
Credit open up.
Speaker 12 (18:16):
So I think there's plenty for us to keep our
very detailed focus.
Speaker 11 (18:21):
On But no, I don't think it's too little, too y.
Speaker 5 (18:23):
How do you keep your team, the folks who work
under you, not just motivated, but to get them to
understand what the long term goal is in an environment
where we are so focused on these minute by minute,
short term disruptions.
Speaker 11 (18:39):
It's a great question.
Speaker 12 (18:41):
I think the reality is you have to be you
have to have confidence in the strategies you're running, and
you have to know that those strategies are performing the
way they should do in the market environments you're in.
So you keep that focus at man group.
Speaker 11 (18:54):
If we have strategies that.
Speaker 12 (18:55):
Aren't working in a period of time, I don't have
to go on to the floor and make people feel
more on how they're doing that themselves. So for what
we do, it's about being sure that we're doing the
best we can do. We continue to be at the
cutting edge entrepreneurially of content and product and capability that
we deliver that to our clients, that we deliver more
(19:15):
than just funds or products, even to clients that we're
delivering the decades of experience we have in AI or technology,
or we're delivering the nearly twenty years of experience we
have in our partnership with the Oxford Man Institute and
at Oxford University. It's about keeping people focused on the
day job.
Speaker 11 (19:34):
It's about staying calm.
Speaker 5 (19:35):
You mentioned AI, and of course Man Group is probably
one of the early adopters, at least in the finance
space of AI, and I think we spoke about this
at Bloomberg a few months ago. Does that become more
critical in times like this having those types of capabilities
or is it potentially a liability because you're effectively talking
about I don't know something that's I don't want to
(19:56):
say it's pre determined, but certainly there's a roadmap that's
put out within comes in these models.
Speaker 11 (20:01):
Listen.
Speaker 12 (20:01):
I think at AI is a tool. We talked about
it before. It is a great capability.
Speaker 11 (20:06):
When I think.
Speaker 12 (20:07):
About generative AI and I think about AI agents, it's
about deploying those. It means we can be better, faster, smarter.
Doesn't replace the human being, and it doesn't mean that
you need to ignore the risks that are incumbent in
these capabilities too. But I do I think that tech
is part and past of what the future looks like. Undoubtedly,
(20:30):
AI part of that. Undoubtedly, you don't have to look
very far in this conference or the meetings we had
with Elon mosqueesterday to see just the power and the
capability of these future technologies.
Speaker 5 (20:43):
And you think the investment in that writ large, not
just that Man Group investment in that AI tech that
hasn't been disrupted at all. There hasn't been a rethink
on that longer term investment opportunity US.
Speaker 12 (20:53):
We continue to think that AI and we continue to
think that this is both being consumed within Man Group
and within the work we do. But the broader reach
outs into other indiscision, other spaces is going to be
I think transformation.
Speaker 5 (21:07):
You've been on the job for a while now, so
you're not new, You're more of a veteran now, and
you're a veteran at a time where this has to
be one of the more challenging times to be a
corporate leader, certainly of a financial company. And I am
curious as to what you want to do to grow
Man Group knowing that the world order.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
That you came into, not over, is certainly being reshaped.
Speaker 12 (21:32):
I think the great this is a privilege to sit
in the seats we do and I've been talking to
clients NonStop really for the last one hundred days or so,
and that privilege is something we shouldn't forget. You get
a front row seat into what's happening in the world
doing the jobs we do. And so my job, how
(21:53):
has it changed in the last hundred days.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
It hasn't.
Speaker 2 (21:55):
Really.
Speaker 12 (21:55):
It's still about doing the right thing by clients. It's
still about sticking to the stra do we have. It's
still about creating diversified orthogramal on correlated content so our
clients can benefit and can turn value to their underlying
save us inventions.
Speaker 5 (22:12):
All right, Robin, Well we'll let you get to it.
I know you got a busy couple of days here
at Milkin. Robin grew the CEO of the Man Group.
Speaker 8 (22:20):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen
on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business
app Bard Watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
Let me get back to our special coverage of Milkin,
and please to say that the chair of the US
Federal Communications Commission, Brendan Carr, joined us right now. Brendan
great to see you here. I know you've been making
the grounds. You had a panel here. Everyone right now
wants to know what the FCC's role is right now
in the broader policies, particularly when it comes to infrastructure
being rolled out by the White House.
Speaker 10 (22:57):
Yeah, thanks for President Trump has been very clear he
wants to unleash America's private sector to build again. If
you look back the last four years, so many infrastructure
projects got bogged down in dreams of red tape. We
saw it with this forty two billion dollar Internet infrastructure
plan that went nowhere.
Speaker 7 (23:12):
And so we've directed us to deregulate.
Speaker 10 (23:14):
In fact, we've engaged in the most massive deregulation effort
at the FEC that we've ever done. It's underweight right now.
We've closed and looking to close two.
Speaker 7 (23:22):
Thousand dockets that have been opened.
Speaker 10 (23:23):
But probably the most important thing we can do for
the economy right now is spectrum. These are the airways
that your smartphones use. We made a lot of progress.
I thought they're in the first Trump administration. We fell
behind it a little bit during Biden. We needed hundreds
of megahertz out in the marketplace. That's actually deflationary. It's
going to drive down prices for consumers. It's being pro
competitive too.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
Those dockets, I mean, what actually accelerated that? What was
the outcome?
Speaker 10 (23:44):
Yeah, So right now we're targeting all of those, we're
seeking comment on it.
Speaker 7 (23:47):
We've already closed over one hundred dockets.
Speaker 10 (23:49):
We're doing a massive deregulation initiative, and permitting reform is
so key. You know, we have these rules on the
books that forced broadband providers like AT and T to
invest billions of dollars in.
Speaker 7 (23:58):
Old copper line networks.
Speaker 10 (24:00):
Or we're taking a fresh look at that so they
can move that investment over to high speed IP network.
So it's efectively moving billions of dollars of capital into
new net network. So these are some of the economic
agendas that we're running at the agency.
Speaker 3 (24:11):
So what's the timeline and all of this it's a
lot to get through, But what is the timeline that
you guys are looking at.
Speaker 10 (24:16):
It is our directions move on Trump speeds that we're
moving very quickly in the first hundred days. Already we've
taken action across many of these fronts. Also, national security.
We set up a new Council on National Security at
the FCC. We're making sure that we're not vulnerable to
threats that come from communist China, for instance. We're looking
at making sure that people can make and manufacture things here.
Speaker 7 (24:34):
In the US as well.
Speaker 10 (24:35):
So we're running a full economic agenda.
Speaker 7 (24:37):
We're pretty proud of it.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
What are you hearing from members of the telecom community
about what they can do in terms of manufacturing here
in the United States.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Yeah, there's a lot we can do.
Speaker 10 (24:44):
For instance, no piece of electronics can be used in
the US unless it's tested in a lab, but so
far as seventy five percent of those testings take place
inside China.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
So we're looking at steps we can do to resure.
Speaker 10 (24:54):
A lot of that testing as well, and that'll help
give US manufacturers a boost.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
How long would it take to do that, you know,
I think it can be pretty short order.
Speaker 10 (25:01):
We already have some of that testing here already, so
we're taking steps to.
Speaker 7 (25:04):
Sort of further do it.
Speaker 10 (25:05):
But these are just you know, parts of the pieces
we're running at the FCC. It's a really important agenda. Again,
we've got to unleash America's private sector.
Speaker 7 (25:11):
They were held back.
Speaker 10 (25:12):
Too long by different red tapes and regulations.
Speaker 7 (25:15):
Permitting reform.
Speaker 10 (25:16):
Again, as I mentioned, a lot of state and local
regulations still slow down internet builds. There's a role for
the FC to step in there and help clear the way.
But spectrum permitting reform, deregulation, that's the driving agenda at
the FCC. I think it's gonna be great for the economy.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
How unified is this approach from the administration.
Speaker 5 (25:31):
We had the Director of the White House Office of
Science and Technology on a little bit earlier.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
You obviously talked a lot about.
Speaker 5 (25:38):
Reclaiming of the US's lead and technology relative to the
rest of the world, particularly when it comes to AI.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Is the SCC a part of.
Speaker 7 (25:45):
That, Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 10 (25:46):
Look, President Trump was put together just an all star team,
particularly this second administration. Everybody is fully aligned. They're executing
the president's agenda. You mentioned AI. I mean, that's gonna
be the use.
Speaker 7 (25:56):
Case that's going to drive so many of these telecom networks.
That's why we have to get more spectrum out there.
Speaker 10 (26:00):
That's why we have to make it easier to invest
in these new high speed networks.
Speaker 7 (26:03):
When you look at the data.
Speaker 10 (26:04):
Demands of AI, you know, data generally is going up,
but AI is going to increase through the roof.
Speaker 5 (26:10):
Where do we stand though on spectrum because I've heard
that before. What's out there? And even though some of
the spectrum that.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Has been released over the last few years.
Speaker 5 (26:19):
There have been some concerns that they might be causing
in appearance, particularly with some of the recent incidents that
we've had in aviation. Here can that sort of coexist altogether?
Speaker 7 (26:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 10 (26:29):
Look, you know, thankfully President Trump has a playbook on this.
In twenty seventeen, we had fallen far behind China. He
stepped up and said, look, I want to lead in
five G. I want to lead in six G.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
We cleared hundreds of megahertz of spectrum.
Speaker 10 (26:39):
We fell behind China. The reality is we are falling
behind China right now. But we have the playbook. President
Trump is going to step in. We're working right now.
Chairman Ted Cruz, the Senate is working hard to get
spectrum across the finish line.
Speaker 7 (26:50):
We can put it in reconciliation.
Speaker 10 (26:52):
And that's going to help pay for a lot of
the efforts that people want to do in there. It's
going to be eighty billion dollars or more to be
raised if we start auctioning this spectrum off.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
What does this do for people who really don't have
access when it comes to telecommunications, are rural areas we
have so much of this post pandemic. Everyone has talked
about helping these areos.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
For a long time. How do you actually help those Americans?
Speaker 7 (27:12):
Yeah, there's a couple things for doing there.
Speaker 10 (27:13):
When we get more spectrum out that will bring people
across the digital divide, will give people more competitive options.
Speaker 7 (27:18):
But also think.
Speaker 10 (27:19):
About this new generation of low worth orbit satellites, whether
it's Starlink, Kyper just started launching, there's other providers out there.
When we bring that together as part of the solution,
that's really the long term key to bridging the digital
divide in a cost effective way.
Speaker 4 (27:31):
Well, that's interesting that you bring up Elon Musk Starlink.
Speaker 3 (27:33):
Does we know his certainly close relationship with the president.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
I mean, how much of.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
The work you are doing is kind of focusing on
his kind of technology.
Speaker 10 (27:41):
Well, look, I think the space economy in general is
probably one of our top three issues that we're doing
at the FCC.
Speaker 7 (27:46):
We need to start moving much more quickly.
Speaker 10 (27:47):
It took years to get the permits necessary for a
lot of the communications for these satellites.
Speaker 2 (27:52):
We need to be doing that a matter of days
and weeks.
Speaker 7 (27:54):
But it's not just starlink.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
They do it safely, though.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
There is some concern about how many satellites are up
in space at this point. Big deep dive here at
Bloomberg about concerns about satellites coming down. I mean, there
is a process here. How do you do this safely?
Speaker 10 (28:07):
Yeah, we feel comfortable. There's order to breed mitigation rules
that are in place. If we license all the satellites
at the end of the day, we feel very comfortable
that we can still get thousands.
Speaker 7 (28:15):
Of more satellites out there.
Speaker 10 (28:16):
We get the new trend is direct to people's cell phone,
and that's something.
Speaker 7 (28:19):
That's just emerging.
Speaker 10 (28:20):
In fact, we've given providers authority to go higher power
from these LEO satellite systems to get even better direct
to sell capabilities. So this is a really exciting area.
Speaker 5 (28:30):
I want you to talk though, particularly when it comes
to the satellites in space.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
There's obviously a.
Speaker 5 (28:34):
Lot of competition between nations for that real estate, if
you will.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
In the air.
Speaker 5 (28:39):
The US obviously had the first mover advantage.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
China has been launching like crazy.
Speaker 5 (28:44):
India now trying to get into the mix, and we're
seeing in other countries, including in Latin America, also try
to find space up there.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Does this become a conflict at some point?
Speaker 7 (28:54):
Look, I think this is going to be a very
important geopolitical issue.
Speaker 10 (28:56):
Is you know, China is trying to launch their own
version of whether it's Starlink or Kype, and when they're
able to pair Belton Road with high speed internet provided
from satellites with their own CCP content moderation builters, that's
a real threat going forward. And that's why so imperative
that the SEC moved quickly to allow US providers again
a full range of them to launch to compete to
(29:17):
provide coverage.
Speaker 7 (29:18):
And so that's what we're going to do with the
agency too.
Speaker 5 (29:20):
I have to ask you just about mergers and acquisitions,
consolidation in the industry, and not necessarily just consolidation, but
the idea of strategic partnerships and other things things that
in the past, not only under the Biden administration, but
eve under a previous administrations on the Republican side, have
maybe found I won't say a roadblock, but maybe let's
say a roadbump, a speed bump, if you will, and
(29:41):
getting those things done. What type of assurances can you
give the industry that if they do find a need
and a desire for those types of strategic partnerships and acquisitions,
that the FCC won't stand in the way.
Speaker 10 (29:53):
Yeah, we're certainly open for business. We're talking to lots
of providers with have a number of deals before us
right now. One thing that I've said to everybody though,
is if you have envidio as forms of DEI discrimination, that's.
Speaker 7 (30:02):
Something that I think you need to get the house.
Speaker 10 (30:03):
In order before you come to the FCC for and approved.
That's one of the gating criteria that I've been looking at.
But we are open for business. We want investment. President
Trump wants companies building in America investing in America, and
we're going to play.
Speaker 4 (30:14):
Our party paramounts to be asked that deal. What can
we expect.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
We're running our normal course process on that. Again.
Speaker 10 (30:20):
We probably have three or four big, multi billion dollar
deals at the FCC right now.
Speaker 7 (30:24):
We're working through all of them.
Speaker 10 (30:25):
We cleared one smaller telecom deal earlier this year. It
usually takes about one hundred and eighty days to get
through these deals. We're about one hundred days into the
Trump ad.
Speaker 4 (30:32):
Mysteries sticking point though at this.
Speaker 10 (30:34):
Point, at this point, we're just running our normal course process,
whether it's the CBS deal. We have a Verizon Frontier
transaction before us, we have a team Mobile, US Cellular.
We're just getting our teams crunching on all the deals
right now, and it's just normal.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Course, all right, tend.
Speaker 10 (30:47):
Our timeline, Yeah, no time un to announced here on WORSUD.
Speaker 4 (30:50):
All right, listen, we appreciate we know you're a busy man.
Thank you so much. I appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
FCC Chair Brendaccard joining us here at Bilkin.
Speaker 8 (30:57):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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(31:18):
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business
Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders
stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends
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(00:23):
news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast
with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
On Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Carol Master with Romain Bostik here at Milkin in Beverly Hills.
Right now, we've got David Rubinstein, Carlisle Group co chairman,
co founder and host of course of The David Rubinstein
Show here to beer conversations, appearing on Bloomberg, who's also
principal owner of Major League Baseball's Baltimore Oriols.
Speaker 4 (00:49):
We always like to point head as it is so.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Loud here it is. You know, we've been doing this
all day.
Speaker 5 (00:55):
You come up here right and you're the only person
we want to talk to, you know, in all serious
is so David, we want to know what you think
about some of the comments that we heard from Scott
Bessett earlier today and his message to investors. Did that
message resonate with you?
Speaker 6 (01:13):
I think he did a very good job. Yeah, obviously
the business people have been concerned about tariffs and not
knowing where it's going to go.
Speaker 7 (01:20):
He came out and basically more.
Speaker 6 (01:22):
Or less repeated what he had said in the Wall
Street Journal article today, which is there are three elements
of the economic program. One is tariffs, the other's tax cuts,
the other's deregulation. And I think he did a really
good job of explaining why all three meshed together. Now
they have to get these things done. But if they
can get the tax cut through, they can get the
deregulation they want through. I think the Business Committee be
reasonably happy. The tariffs is still a bit of a
(01:46):
problem for the business committees. They don't fully understand what
the endgame is. But I think Scott Bessett did a
pretty good job.
Speaker 5 (01:51):
Obviously, Carlisle has a huge presence in Washington.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
You know how that city works.
Speaker 5 (01:57):
The business friendly administration that was during the campaign. Is
that still intact or is that still going to show up.
Speaker 6 (02:04):
I think the business community by and large is willing
to give the Trump administration the benefit of the doubt
because the business community can extent that business people tend
to be CEOs and not say investors and Republican perhaps
they want to have this administration succeed. They're a little
bit confused about the tariffs, but I think they're willing
to give the benefit of the doubt to the administration. Now,
(02:27):
the tax cut bill is what people are focused on,
and I will interview on a Bloomberg show soon the
chairman of the of the House Ways and Means Committee,
Jason Smith, and they are starting to getting ready to
have hearings and.
Speaker 7 (02:41):
Mark up that bill.
Speaker 6 (02:42):
And whether that bill goes in the direction the Business
Committee wants, we don't know, but I think the tax
cut or what the administration thinks is going to happen.
Speaker 7 (02:48):
The question is can you really afford it?
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Well, that's what I want to ask you, David. Can
we afford with the deficit?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
You can afford it.
Speaker 6 (02:57):
If you depends on how you matt massage and numbers.
There's a four trillion dollar number that they haven't figured
out how to deal with yet, which is to say
they want to make certain tax cuts permanent but not
count the four trillion dollars as part of the deficit.
That's an unusual thing to do. Maybe they can get
away with it. I don't know.
Speaker 5 (03:17):
Are the people you're talking to though, whether it's on
your shows on Bloomberg, whether it's privately with regards to
your business, are they still optimistic?
Speaker 6 (03:26):
Business people by and large tend to be optimistic by nature.
They don't really think things are going to be better
than things that are not.
Speaker 7 (03:31):
Going to be good.
Speaker 6 (03:32):
So I think people are hoping that the administration could
get the tax cut bill.
Speaker 7 (03:37):
Through, the deregulation through.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
They hope that somebody can come along and get some
of these tariffs agreements agree to. I think Scott Descent
is a really smart guy, and I think he's done
a pretty good job so far representing the administration. I
think he's their best voice on the economy by far.
Speaker 5 (03:52):
Has anyone approached you about being involved in this administration,
whether an informal or informal.
Speaker 7 (03:57):
I think that's not likely.
Speaker 6 (03:58):
This administration fired from being chair of the Chenny Centers,
I think probably I'm not the verse choice. But now
I think my days are making government are probably behind us.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
All right, David, really appreciate this time, my boy.
Speaker 7 (04:09):
Thanks you on here, Dank Okay.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
Sorry, you're a good sport. Thank you, Thank you so much.
Speaker 5 (04:13):
Carlisle Group Co founder and co chair, but also of
course the hosts of the show.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Period of peer.
Speaker 8 (04:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch US
live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen
on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (04:33):
All right, a great conversation right now, live on the
milk and Stage where we focus on government policy and
more importantly budgets. We talk about tax collection here in
the USA. Those projections are down, refunds they're up, and
that's a formula that could dampen government revenue and poor
ten an earlier deadline for Congress to raise the debt
(04:53):
ceiling or risk a federal payments to fault. Philip Swegel
is the director of the US Congressional Budget Office in
each ooin to us now here on the milk and Stage.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Philip, great to have you here.
Speaker 7 (05:03):
Thanks so much.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Let's get right to it.
Speaker 5 (05:05):
Everyone's talking about this so called X state. I know
it's a squishy date, but when people look at tax receipts,
they look at the current situation in Congress right now,
is that date going to move up?
Speaker 9 (05:15):
You know, we still have it as late in the summer,
you know, into August, in September.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Each.
Speaker 9 (05:22):
Of course, it's possible that it can come forward depending
on the continued revenue, especially in June, but for now
we're comfortable with our later date that Congress has time
to act on it.
Speaker 5 (05:31):
The revenue you're seeing coming in, at least in the
most recent mouth, you're encouraged by that.
Speaker 9 (05:36):
You know, it was tracking reasonably well with our expectation,
and this is the projections that we made back in
January and February that the revenues are still in line
with that.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
One thing I want to ask you in terms of
real deficit reduction, because one of the things I just
did a global real estate panel and the thing that
they are most concerned about seem to be the growing
US deficit. What real construction work are we doing to
really reduce the deficit and what kind.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
Of pain might it impose on US citizens?
Speaker 9 (06:07):
Yeah, it's you know, I've seen the Treasury Secretary talk
about that. He was here at the Milking conference this
morning talking about it. He is writing in the Wall
Street Journal about it, and so I know he's focused
on it.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
I know the administration is focused on it.
Speaker 9 (06:20):
And that's it's important, it's necessary.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
It doesn't have to be done.
Speaker 9 (06:24):
Immediately, but that sense of this should be reassuring to
the American people.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Why do you say it doesn't have to be done immediately?
Many would have said ten years ago, fifteen years ago,
we would have had this conversation and talked about kicking
the can down the road.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
And here we are again.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Why is it not in an immediate problem?
Speaker 9 (06:41):
No, No, you're exactly right that in the past there's
been an urgency and then the lack of follow through,
the lack of action. And that's part of my message
is that we do as a country have time because
the rest of the world still sees US as a
country that's stable, that's secure, that's growing. There's lots of
volatility in the US and the policy environment now, and
that's a negative. We still have the trust of global
(07:03):
investors and that's what gives us time.
Speaker 5 (07:06):
How competent, though, are you right now? And your economic projections?
The Treasury secretary what's here? Earlier today he specifically called
out the CBO's GDP projections of two percent or so.
He's saying, in his view, that number should be closer
to three percent.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
What's the gap? Why does that gap?
Speaker 9 (07:23):
That's okay, No, no, the gap is understandable because what
CBO is doing is projecting the economy under career law,
and what the Treasury Secretary's doing is completely appropriate. He's
saying with the president's agenda, you know, he says, we,
you know, we the administration have a pro growth agenda.
He thinks that will be successful, and of course all
Americans hope it will be and that will boost economic
(07:45):
growth and if it does well, then that will be
good for everyone. We're looking we're just looking at different things.
So as we're looking at what was the economic trajectory
before the President's agenda, they're the balance.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
Though as well.
Speaker 5 (07:58):
So we don't quite know which policies will become law
or become real. I know that's going to take some time,
but we do know the contours of this administration. A
crackdown on immigration, which immigration, of course, to a certain extent,
has been a net positive at least on aggregate GDP
growth in this country. There's also a lot of issues
(08:18):
when it comes to the IRA which the Trump administration
is trying to scale back. When do you factor those
impacts in and the potential drag on growth.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Okay, no, no, you're putting your finger exactly in.
Speaker 9 (08:32):
The important question is that all of the change is happening,
both the executive actions and then the legislation being considered
by the Congress.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
How will those impact the economy?
Speaker 9 (08:41):
And so the executive action you mentioned on immigration, that
affects the labor force, That affects the economy, It affects
the federal budget.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
We are tracking that. It's still a little bit too
soon to know what is the long term impact of that.
Speaker 9 (08:53):
Is the decline in immigration temporary or is it a
long term factor, And that's the kind of thing we
are tracking. Our next update will be late spring, early summer,
and we will building that the IRA all the other
changes into that next update.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
You know many economists that would in terms of immigration
the importance in terms of feeding the labor market, providing
a younger population. They point to Japan, they point to
places like South Korea where folks are not having babies anymore,
and even in America in terms of the small families
that people are having. So I understand what you're saying,
but a lot of economists have done the research for
(09:29):
years about the importance of immigration in terms of the
health of economic growth for a nation.
Speaker 9 (09:35):
Yeah, yeah, no, it's it's what makes immigration a difficult
issue is that it's both an economic issue and you
pointed to the key economic.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Factors, but is a social issue.
Speaker 9 (09:45):
It's a political issue people worry about, you know, crime
and safety and then local communities, and it builds together
all those things. And then there's high skilled immigration and
low skilled immigration and those are connected as well in
the policy space. So that's what makes it a difficult
thing is because it brings together so many cross currents
(10:05):
in our society.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
I am curious when you guys think about the outlook.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
You do have.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
We're an earning season and we've been reporting on it,
and you do have companies come out with two scenarios
because they see it as one potentially where we are
no growth or in a recession and so it.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Doesn't look so good.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
We have another where things look pretty normal and we're
back to American exceptionalism. Tell us about the scenarios that
you are planning for, because that's very different in terms
of the US government with the physical pasturelic.
Speaker 9 (10:33):
SiOH No, you're right, and we at CBO have the
same dilemma as the companies to try to figure out
which trajectory are we going on, and of course there's
a spectrum between them. You know, we suspect the volatility
of the last month will lead to slower business investment,
reduce capital inflows, reduce foreign investment in the US. That
(10:53):
will tend to have a negative effect on growth. On
the other hand, if there are trade deals, if there's
changes in regulation that are pro.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Growth, that will go in the other direction.
Speaker 9 (11:03):
And that's where we're looking at, is to try to
figure out the balance between the sort of the downward pressures,
the volatility especially and the upward of the president's agenda.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
Is there a balance or are you leaning one way
or the other based on what we've seen so far.
Speaker 9 (11:18):
It's just too soon because there's a sense in which
we have all the volatility, we have all the negative parts,
and now we're waiting on the positive and that I'll
just say, you know, today CBO, we posted our first
cost estimate for the reconciliation Bill of the House Armed
Services Committee. So there's lots more to come as the
different committees in the House do their work and we
(11:38):
will analyze it.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
But it just gives you an education. There's a lot
more coming.
Speaker 9 (11:42):
There's a lot of legislative activity and that's the part
that's still to be written.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
The CBO independent, nonpartisan.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
Is there political pressure on you to make sure that
numbers look a certain way or a point in a
certain direction?
Speaker 7 (11:57):
You know?
Speaker 9 (11:58):
So I have benefited from fifty years of CBO being independent,
being nonpartisan. My predecessor's doing a good job, and that's
what members expect from from us, From me, they expect
honest analysis. Whatever the numbers are. They just want to
hear it, you know, And I don't want to disappoint people.
But if the numbers are not what they hope for,
(12:19):
that's just it's just another day.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
And that's just we're doing our job.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
So that means no pressure.
Speaker 10 (12:25):
You know.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
The pressure is really internal. We're trying to do a
good job.
Speaker 9 (12:29):
We want to be as complete as we can, as
comprehensive as we can, as transparent as we can, and
that's you know, that's really the pressure.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
All right, Well, I really appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
There's a lot going on on your end, so we
really appreciate you finding some time for.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
No thank you, I'm Bloombaro.
Speaker 4 (12:42):
Sure helps Ragel.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
Here's the US Congressional Budget Office Director joining us here
at Bilkin.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecarplay and
Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also
listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
As we get the intersection of the economy, of what's
going on in Washington, and of course what's going on
in financial markets. Financial markets that in many ways of
now blended together. A lot of people have used that
private markets to a certain extent have actually become the
new public markets. And while that might be overstated and
adjust a bit, the Ven diagram definitely shows a degree
(13:27):
of increasing overlap. So who better to kick things off
today than with Man Group, the world's largest listed hedge
fund company with about one hundred and seventy billion dollars
in assets spanning both public and private markets, a mix
of long only and alternative approaches across all major asset classes.
And now that I've pumped you up, please to say
that the person at the center of all that joined
(13:49):
us right now Robin Grew who helps lead themand group.
Great to see you here on the milk and stage
in LA.
Speaker 11 (13:54):
Thanks for having to me.
Speaker 5 (13:55):
Volatility in this market. If you're a broker dealer, probably
good for you. If you're a hedge fund man manager,
not so much.
Speaker 12 (14:02):
Well, listen, volatility is a place where we need to
lean in to do more.
Speaker 11 (14:08):
We are in volatile markets.
Speaker 12 (14:09):
We're not going back to a benign market environment, and
so in that space, we have to be prepared to
create diversified content and capability that's able to navigate these
markets to provide outsized returns or alpha returns to our investments.
Speaker 5 (14:26):
How do you do that though, because when you look
at the strategies that Man Group has a lot of
systemic strategy, systematic strategies, a lot of trend following strategies
that we've seen over the last few weeks and months,
does not necessarily perform optimally when there is so much
misdirection going on in the market.
Speaker 12 (14:45):
Totally totally, and they're not supposed to. I think that's
the thing that we need to be mindful of, and
a diversified portfolio we're going to have oursets and capabilities
and strategies that do perform, and we've seen that in credit,
both public and private. We've seen it in great active
equity management. We've seen it in multistrats. But you don't
(15:05):
see it in training because that whip saw in whiplashing
behavior doesn't work for it.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
But that's why when clients.
Speaker 12 (15:12):
Are talking to us about how do they position their portfolios,
they're looking at the things that will operate in markets
as we're seeing today, and they're also thinking about defensive alpha.
Speaker 11 (15:22):
And what we do know and what we've had history around,
is that when you have decades.
Speaker 12 (15:27):
Of experiencing momentum and trend strategies, they operate well when
this volatility slows down, and then you can find the
trains again.
Speaker 5 (15:37):
Do you expect that volatility to slow down anytime soon?
Speaker 12 (15:40):
I think that volatility is going to be here for
some time. It's whether the volatility is accompanied by whiplash behavior.
And that's what the markets are looking for. We're looking
for that consistency, something that is predictable and.
Speaker 11 (15:52):
Capable of being predicted.
Speaker 12 (15:54):
But there's no doubt that the opportunity sets across markets,
across jurisdictions are really interesting right now. One hundred days ago,
you might not have thought about Europe as a growth opportunity.
Today we sit here talking about that. We're looking at
Asia with a very different set of lenses. We're seeing
real opportunities for active and alternative investments, and it's about
(16:18):
staying calm through this time as well.
Speaker 11 (16:20):
But volatility, will it be here for some time? I
think so. Dispersion yep, I think so. But whiplash, let's
hope not forever.
Speaker 5 (16:28):
Look, you got a chance to hear what Scott Besson
had to say a little bit earlier at one of
the milk and panels here, But there was a really
interesting moment in that where he really turned to the
audience and looked straight at them and said, we're trying
to make everything more appealing for you, meaning for the
investors out there that are in this room. Do you
find any comfort in hearing those words out of Scott Besson?
Speaker 11 (16:51):
Absolutely?
Speaker 12 (16:52):
You know, we want this biggest, deepest capital market to
function really.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
Really well.
Speaker 11 (16:59):
We just also are good.
Speaker 12 (17:01):
To work by our clients to go and seek out
alpha wherever that may be, that out the thoms across
all markets. It's why we trade eight hundred plus markets
in the world. That's our job to do that, and
we do that for real individuals who have saved all
their lives, who put into their pension pots to be
their four one ks or the ras or the equivalents
(17:23):
elsewhere in the world. But yes, I think it's a
tremendous statement that we have Scott Bessel talking to us
about actually being supportive of markets. I think that's a
great thing.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Is that too little, too late?
Speaker 5 (17:36):
This is a room full of people from around the world,
and you know there's been a reallocation of capital, or
at least a rethink of whether to reallocate capital away
from the US to Europe, for example, or even to
other parts of the world.
Speaker 11 (17:49):
To not too late. I don't think so.
Speaker 12 (17:51):
I think we all look to the quality of the
US as an investible space.
Speaker 11 (17:56):
And again it's.
Speaker 12 (17:57):
The opportunity set that's out there. Is it a bad
thing that there's competition. Is there's a bad thing that
there's growth in Europe or an opportunity set in Asia
that's opening up.
Speaker 11 (18:09):
I don't think so.
Speaker 12 (18:10):
In the same way as I don't think it's a
bad thing that we're seeing the opportunities in private.
Speaker 11 (18:14):
Credit open up.
Speaker 12 (18:16):
So I think there's plenty for us to keep our
very detailed focus.
Speaker 11 (18:21):
On But no, I don't think it's too little, too y.
Speaker 5 (18:23):
How do you keep your team, the folks who work
under you, not just motivated, but to get them to
understand what the long term goal is in an environment
where we are so focused on these minute by minute,
short term disruptions.
Speaker 11 (18:39):
It's a great question.
Speaker 12 (18:41):
I think the reality is you have to be you
have to have confidence in the strategies you're running, and
you have to know that those strategies are performing the
way they should do in the market environments you're in.
So you keep that focus at man group.
Speaker 11 (18:54):
If we have strategies that.
Speaker 12 (18:55):
Aren't working in a period of time, I don't have
to go on to the floor and make people feel
more on how they're doing that themselves. So for what
we do, it's about being sure that we're doing the
best we can do. We continue to be at the
cutting edge entrepreneurially of content and product and capability that
we deliver that to our clients, that we deliver more
(19:15):
than just funds or products, even to clients that we're
delivering the decades of experience we have in AI or technology,
or we're delivering the nearly twenty years of experience we
have in our partnership with the Oxford Man Institute and
at Oxford University. It's about keeping people focused on the
day job.
Speaker 11 (19:34):
It's about staying calm.
Speaker 5 (19:35):
You mentioned AI, and of course Man Group is probably
one of the early adopters, at least in the finance
space of AI, and I think we spoke about this
at Bloomberg a few months ago. Does that become more
critical in times like this having those types of capabilities
or is it potentially a liability because you're effectively talking
about I don't know something that's I don't want to
(19:56):
say it's pre determined, but certainly there's a roadmap that's
put out within comes in these models.
Speaker 11 (20:01):
Listen.
Speaker 12 (20:01):
I think at AI is a tool. We talked about
it before. It is a great capability.
Speaker 11 (20:06):
When I think.
Speaker 12 (20:07):
About generative AI and I think about AI agents, it's
about deploying those. It means we can be better, faster, smarter.
Doesn't replace the human being, and it doesn't mean that
you need to ignore the risks that are incumbent in
these capabilities too. But I do I think that tech
is part and past of what the future looks like. Undoubtedly,
(20:30):
AI part of that. Undoubtedly, you don't have to look
very far in this conference or the meetings we had
with Elon mosqueesterday to see just the power and the
capability of these future technologies.
Speaker 5 (20:43):
And you think the investment in that writ large, not
just that Man Group investment in that AI tech that
hasn't been disrupted at all. There hasn't been a rethink
on that longer term investment opportunity US.
Speaker 12 (20:53):
We continue to think that AI and we continue to
think that this is both being consumed within Man Group
and within the work we do. But the broader reach
outs into other indiscision, other spaces is going to be
I think transformation.
Speaker 5 (21:07):
You've been on the job for a while now, so
you're not new, You're more of a veteran now, and
you're a veteran at a time where this has to
be one of the more challenging times to be a
corporate leader, certainly of a financial company. And I am
curious as to what you want to do to grow
Man Group knowing that the world order.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
That you came into, not over, is certainly being reshaped.
Speaker 12 (21:32):
I think the great this is a privilege to sit
in the seats we do and I've been talking to
clients NonStop really for the last one hundred days or so,
and that privilege is something we shouldn't forget. You get
a front row seat into what's happening in the world
doing the jobs we do. And so my job, how
(21:53):
has it changed in the last hundred days.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
It hasn't.
Speaker 2 (21:55):
Really.
Speaker 12 (21:55):
It's still about doing the right thing by clients. It's
still about sticking to the stra do we have. It's
still about creating diversified orthogramal on correlated content so our
clients can benefit and can turn value to their underlying
save us inventions.
Speaker 5 (22:12):
All right, Robin, Well we'll let you get to it.
I know you got a busy couple of days here
at Milkin. Robin grew the CEO of the Man Group.
Speaker 8 (22:20):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen
on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business
app Bard Watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
Let me get back to our special coverage of Milkin,
and please to say that the chair of the US
Federal Communications Commission, Brendan Carr, joined us right now. Brendan
great to see you here. I know you've been making
the grounds. You had a panel here. Everyone right now
wants to know what the FCC's role is right now
in the broader policies, particularly when it comes to infrastructure
being rolled out by the White House.
Speaker 10 (22:57):
Yeah, thanks for President Trump has been very clear he
wants to unleash America's private sector to build again. If
you look back the last four years, so many infrastructure
projects got bogged down in dreams of red tape. We
saw it with this forty two billion dollar Internet infrastructure
plan that went nowhere.
Speaker 7 (23:12):
And so we've directed us to deregulate.
Speaker 10 (23:14):
In fact, we've engaged in the most massive deregulation effort
at the FEC that we've ever done. It's underweight right now.
We've closed and looking to close two.
Speaker 7 (23:22):
Thousand dockets that have been opened.
Speaker 10 (23:23):
But probably the most important thing we can do for
the economy right now is spectrum. These are the airways
that your smartphones use. We made a lot of progress.
I thought they're in the first Trump administration. We fell
behind it a little bit during Biden. We needed hundreds
of megahertz out in the marketplace. That's actually deflationary. It's
going to drive down prices for consumers. It's being pro
competitive too.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
Those dockets, I mean, what actually accelerated that? What was
the outcome?
Speaker 10 (23:44):
Yeah, So right now we're targeting all of those, we're
seeking comment on it.
Speaker 7 (23:47):
We've already closed over one hundred dockets.
Speaker 10 (23:49):
We're doing a massive deregulation initiative, and permitting reform is
so key. You know, we have these rules on the
books that forced broadband providers like AT and T to
invest billions of dollars in.
Speaker 7 (23:58):
Old copper line networks.
Speaker 10 (24:00):
Or we're taking a fresh look at that so they
can move that investment over to high speed IP network.
So it's efectively moving billions of dollars of capital into
new net network. So these are some of the economic
agendas that we're running at the agency.
Speaker 3 (24:11):
So what's the timeline and all of this it's a
lot to get through, But what is the timeline that
you guys are looking at.
Speaker 10 (24:16):
It is our directions move on Trump speeds that we're
moving very quickly in the first hundred days. Already we've
taken action across many of these fronts. Also, national security.
We set up a new Council on National Security at
the FCC. We're making sure that we're not vulnerable to
threats that come from communist China, for instance. We're looking
at making sure that people can make and manufacture things here.
Speaker 7 (24:34):
In the US as well.
Speaker 10 (24:35):
So we're running a full economic agenda.
Speaker 7 (24:37):
We're pretty proud of it.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
What are you hearing from members of the telecom community
about what they can do in terms of manufacturing here
in the United States.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Yeah, there's a lot we can do.
Speaker 10 (24:44):
For instance, no piece of electronics can be used in
the US unless it's tested in a lab, but so
far as seventy five percent of those testings take place
inside China.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
So we're looking at steps we can do to resure.
Speaker 10 (24:54):
A lot of that testing as well, and that'll help
give US manufacturers a boost.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
How long would it take to do that, you know,
I think it can be pretty short order.
Speaker 10 (25:01):
We already have some of that testing here already, so
we're taking steps to.
Speaker 7 (25:04):
Sort of further do it.
Speaker 10 (25:05):
But these are just you know, parts of the pieces
we're running at the FCC. It's a really important agenda. Again,
we've got to unleash America's private sector.
Speaker 7 (25:11):
They were held back.
Speaker 10 (25:12):
Too long by different red tapes and regulations.
Speaker 7 (25:15):
Permitting reform.
Speaker 10 (25:16):
Again, as I mentioned, a lot of state and local
regulations still slow down internet builds. There's a role for
the FC to step in there and help clear the way.
But spectrum permitting reform, deregulation, that's the driving agenda at
the FCC. I think it's gonna be great for the economy.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
How unified is this approach from the administration.
Speaker 5 (25:31):
We had the Director of the White House Office of
Science and Technology on a little bit earlier.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
You obviously talked a lot about.
Speaker 5 (25:38):
Reclaiming of the US's lead and technology relative to the
rest of the world, particularly when it comes to AI.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Is the SCC a part of.
Speaker 7 (25:45):
That, Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 10 (25:46):
Look, President Trump was put together just an all star team,
particularly this second administration. Everybody is fully aligned. They're executing
the president's agenda. You mentioned AI. I mean, that's gonna
be the use.
Speaker 7 (25:56):
Case that's going to drive so many of these telecom networks.
That's why we have to get more spectrum out there.
Speaker 10 (26:00):
That's why we have to make it easier to invest
in these new high speed networks.
Speaker 7 (26:03):
When you look at the data.
Speaker 10 (26:04):
Demands of AI, you know, data generally is going up,
but AI is going to increase through the roof.
Speaker 5 (26:10):
Where do we stand though on spectrum because I've heard
that before. What's out there? And even though some of
the spectrum that.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Has been released over the last few years.
Speaker 5 (26:19):
There have been some concerns that they might be causing
in appearance, particularly with some of the recent incidents that
we've had in aviation. Here can that sort of coexist altogether?
Speaker 7 (26:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 10 (26:29):
Look, you know, thankfully President Trump has a playbook on this.
In twenty seventeen, we had fallen far behind China. He
stepped up and said, look, I want to lead in
five G. I want to lead in six G.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
We cleared hundreds of megahertz of spectrum.
Speaker 10 (26:39):
We fell behind China. The reality is we are falling
behind China right now. But we have the playbook. President
Trump is going to step in. We're working right now.
Chairman Ted Cruz, the Senate is working hard to get
spectrum across the finish line.
Speaker 7 (26:50):
We can put it in reconciliation.
Speaker 10 (26:52):
And that's going to help pay for a lot of
the efforts that people want to do in there. It's
going to be eighty billion dollars or more to be
raised if we start auctioning this spectrum off.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
What does this do for people who really don't have
access when it comes to telecommunications, are rural areas we
have so much of this post pandemic. Everyone has talked
about helping these areos.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
For a long time. How do you actually help those Americans?
Speaker 7 (27:12):
Yeah, there's a couple things for doing there.
Speaker 10 (27:13):
When we get more spectrum out that will bring people
across the digital divide, will give people more competitive options.
Speaker 7 (27:18):
But also think.
Speaker 10 (27:19):
About this new generation of low worth orbit satellites, whether
it's Starlink, Kyper just started launching, there's other providers out there.
When we bring that together as part of the solution,
that's really the long term key to bridging the digital
divide in a cost effective way.
Speaker 4 (27:31):
Well, that's interesting that you bring up Elon Musk Starlink.
Speaker 3 (27:33):
Does we know his certainly close relationship with the president.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
I mean, how much of.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
The work you are doing is kind of focusing on
his kind of technology.
Speaker 10 (27:41):
Well, look, I think the space economy in general is
probably one of our top three issues that we're doing
at the FCC.
Speaker 7 (27:46):
We need to start moving much more quickly.
Speaker 10 (27:47):
It took years to get the permits necessary for a
lot of the communications for these satellites.
Speaker 2 (27:52):
We need to be doing that a matter of days
and weeks.
Speaker 7 (27:54):
But it's not just starlink.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
They do it safely, though.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
There is some concern about how many satellites are up
in space at this point. Big deep dive here at
Bloomberg about concerns about satellites coming down. I mean, there
is a process here. How do you do this safely?
Speaker 10 (28:07):
Yeah, we feel comfortable. There's order to breed mitigation rules
that are in place. If we license all the satellites
at the end of the day, we feel very comfortable
that we can still get thousands.
Speaker 7 (28:15):
Of more satellites out there.
Speaker 10 (28:16):
We get the new trend is direct to people's cell phone,
and that's something.
Speaker 7 (28:19):
That's just emerging.
Speaker 10 (28:20):
In fact, we've given providers authority to go higher power
from these LEO satellite systems to get even better direct
to sell capabilities. So this is a really exciting area.
Speaker 5 (28:30):
I want you to talk though, particularly when it comes
to the satellites in space.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
There's obviously a.
Speaker 5 (28:34):
Lot of competition between nations for that real estate, if
you will.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
In the air.
Speaker 5 (28:39):
The US obviously had the first mover advantage.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
China has been launching like crazy.
Speaker 5 (28:44):
India now trying to get into the mix, and we're
seeing in other countries, including in Latin America, also try
to find space up there.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Does this become a conflict at some point?
Speaker 7 (28:54):
Look, I think this is going to be a very
important geopolitical issue.
Speaker 10 (28:56):
Is you know, China is trying to launch their own
version of whether it's Starlink or Kype, and when they're
able to pair Belton Road with high speed internet provided
from satellites with their own CCP content moderation builters, that's
a real threat going forward. And that's why so imperative
that the SEC moved quickly to allow US providers again
a full range of them to launch to compete to
(29:17):
provide coverage.
Speaker 7 (29:18):
And so that's what we're going to do with the
agency too.
Speaker 5 (29:20):
I have to ask you just about mergers and acquisitions,
consolidation in the industry, and not necessarily just consolidation, but
the idea of strategic partnerships and other things things that
in the past, not only under the Biden administration, but
eve under a previous administrations on the Republican side, have
maybe found I won't say a roadblock, but maybe let's
say a roadbump, a speed bump, if you will, and
(29:41):
getting those things done. What type of assurances can you
give the industry that if they do find a need
and a desire for those types of strategic partnerships and acquisitions,
that the FCC won't stand in the way.
Speaker 10 (29:53):
Yeah, we're certainly open for business. We're talking to lots
of providers with have a number of deals before us
right now. One thing that I've said to everybody though,
is if you have envidio as forms of DEI discrimination, that's.
Speaker 7 (30:02):
Something that I think you need to get the house.
Speaker 10 (30:03):
In order before you come to the FCC for and approved.
That's one of the gating criteria that I've been looking at.
But we are open for business. We want investment. President
Trump wants companies building in America investing in America, and
we're going to play.
Speaker 4 (30:14):
Our party paramounts to be asked that deal. What can
we expect.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
We're running our normal course process on that. Again.
Speaker 10 (30:20):
We probably have three or four big, multi billion dollar
deals at the FCC right now.
Speaker 7 (30:24):
We're working through all of them.
Speaker 10 (30:25):
We cleared one smaller telecom deal earlier this year. It
usually takes about one hundred and eighty days to get
through these deals. We're about one hundred days into the
Trump ad.
Speaker 4 (30:32):
Mysteries sticking point though at this.
Speaker 10 (30:34):
Point, at this point, we're just running our normal course process,
whether it's the CBS deal. We have a Verizon Frontier
transaction before us, we have a team Mobile, US Cellular.
We're just getting our teams crunching on all the deals
right now, and it's just normal.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Course, all right, tend.
Speaker 10 (30:47):
Our timeline, Yeah, no time un to announced here on WORSUD.
Speaker 4 (30:50):
All right, listen, we appreciate we know you're a busy man.
Thank you so much. I appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
FCC Chair Brendaccard joining us here at Bilkin.
Speaker 8 (30:57):
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