June 23, 2025 • 26 mins
- Norman Roule, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies
- Daan Struyven, Head: Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs
- Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense
- Danny Danon, Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations
Norman Roule, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, discusses the US strikes on Iran and what's next for conflict in the Middle East. Daan Struyven, Head: Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs, offers his outlook for oil and global commodities in the wake of the US' attack on Iran. Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense, talks about the strategy aimed at weakening Iran's nuclear capabilities and whether early indications show the US achieved its objectives. Danny Danon, Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations, talks about Israel's position in the Middle East after the US' strike on Iran.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
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(00:34):
Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. To extend the conversation,
the former senior US intelligence official, Normal Raw joins us
now for more Normal Welcome back to the program sir.
Just a quote from the Defense Secretary pet Agseth called
it an incredible and overwhelming success. How should we define success?
This Monday morning?
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Good morning, Well, we have a changed Middle East. The
United States and Israel of conducted devastating attacks against all
ofver Ron's air defense, his leadership nuclear programs in Iran's
response has been generally feeble. What response Iran has been
able to conduct, to include missile attacks against Israel have
(01:11):
not impacted the strategic course of the conflict. The numbers
are moving in a direction where Iran's missile program is
being whittled away, and Iran's nuclear program is effectively destroyed.
There will be elements that remain, there will be elements
that are concerning, but its nuclear program is effectively destroyed.
Speaker 4 (01:31):
Norman, no one really understands Iran quite like you. What
do you think that Iotola is weighing up right now?
The menu of options in terms of a response.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Well, there are many people who understand Iran are better
than me. But within Iran, the decision making structure is
going to be challenged. His leadership has been changed. He
himself is in a difficult, hidden location. Some of his
leadership is being hunted, perhaps by the Israelis. They're under attack,
their economy is poor, their population is restive. Let me
(02:03):
give you an example of options and the challenges. If
they close the straight of her moves, they close off
most of the many of the food stuffs, the vegetable oils,
the primary goods that come into the country to feed
the population. Now, that is something that you really don't
want to do at a time when your population may
erupt into major unrest. So they have many challenges with
(02:24):
all of the decisions they make. But again, if they
close the straight of her moves, it does not impact Israel,
and it will bring in the United States and could
likely lead to the end of the regime.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
Do you think these strikes get around to the table?
The President continues to say he wants to see a
diplomatic path forward.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Not immediately. But what it does do is it tells
the world that the United States is pushing for diplomacy,
and that actually encourages the world to push back on
Iran's efforts to escalate the contact conflict or isolate the
United States. So in the past, in some cases the
United States seemed as the aggressor or are alone. But
(03:03):
the United States is an essence saying you can't have
a program that is moving towards a nuclear weapon, but
we're interested in a diplomatic deal. Be reasonable. Iran is
not being reasonable and it has no allies.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
No, I mean you said that the nuclear program has
effectively been destroyed. There's a lot of concern among a
number of circles about the four hundred kilograms of enriched
uranium that have gone missing that previously were held near Isfahan,
as well as equipment that was taken out of four
Dah before the attacks. Do you have any sense of
either where that could be or how close that could
be to being to restarting some of the nuclear programs
(03:38):
that are on previously had So those.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Are valid concerns. So we should be concerned about Iran's
remaining nuclear material. It will have nuclear scientists, it will
have nuclear knowledge, and it will have parts and equipment
related to centrifuges that it did not declare to the
IEA that it could in theory assemble and recreate in
a covert facility. But let's think about that for a minute.
(04:04):
If you believe what you read in the newspapers, the
United States and Israel have is some extremely good intelligence
on Iran. So they're going to have to put this together,
get away with it, and then the United States and
Israel are going to have to not learn about it
and not destroy it. Now that's possible, but it's unlikely.
But it is something that's going to require diplomatic pressure
(04:24):
so that it can be identified and removed, and it's
probably a card Iran will play in the talks.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
What do you think the Foreign Minister of Iran is
doing over in Russia today, we know that he is
meeting with Vladimir Putin, and there's a real question around
what the ask is and whether it will be the
response that Iranians are looking for.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Diplomatic support pressure in the UN. Iran has obtained consistent
diplomatic support at the United Nations Security Consul, the International
Atomic Energy Agency, and other diplomatic fora from Russia and
China over the years. In fact, these two countries have
block any major pressure on Iran for its proliferation missiles,
nuclear program and terrorism. And this is really the moment
(05:06):
where these two countries can can produce this. It's unlikely
that either of these countries are going to provide any
military support. The Strategic Agreement that has been signed between
Russia and Iran it doesn't provide for that sort of relationship.
But Iran, again it has no allies, but it does
have partners who have provided a support in international fora
(05:26):
that may help on diplomatic talks.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Norman, just before you go, just a brief assessment of
this operation thirty seven as long one hundred and twenty
five aircraft B two bombers, fourth and fifth generation fighters
as well thirty thousand pounds bunker buster bombs missiles launched
from a submarine as well. Norman, how smooth, how well executed,
with the logistics, the precision of this operation.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
This operation speaks to the training, leadership, and the technology
of the United States military has had for a number
of years. This operation has been stayed in the press,
has been practiced for many years. This is not something
that has occurred in any recent administration, but this recent
(06:11):
administration it had to refine. It significantly matched the target set.
But what you are seeing is a technology and capability
in leadership and no country can match. And I think
North Korea and other countries in the world to include
China and Russia are looking in the past weeks and
saying the world is also a little different from their perspective.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
It's a strong final point Norman appreciated time. Sir Norman
role Valley, former senior US intelligence official. Down story for
a gobent snacks right in the following. A hypothetical sustained
a very large disruption of energy supply transit would likely
(06:51):
push oil and European natural gas price is above one
hundred and ten dollars per barrel. Joining US now is
down story for a golment Sachs, Dan, that's the hypothetical.
Let's talk about a base case. What is the base case?
Forem of the team so found the smarting.
Speaker 5 (07:04):
Yeah, so base case remains that we don't see significant
disruptions neither of oil or natural gas in the Middle East.
And in our base case without disruptions, we actually have
energy prices gradually declining, with brands reaching around sixty dollars
per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, and
with TTF europe natural gas prices also declining, especially next
(07:26):
year with the arrival of all these extra energy supply
cargo terminals.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Dan, how high could oil go if Iran does not
close the Strait of Hormos but does other potential attacks
on energy infrastructure or tankers that potentially disrupt the flow
of energy coming out of the region.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
Yeah, so you know, old prices could rise significantly in
those scenarios. And the key reason is that the Middle
East the Gulf countries are remain the largest regional producer
in global global oil markets. In general. Our estimate is
that for every one million barrels per day drop of
(08:05):
supply that sustained for about a year, brand should be
about eight dollars per barrel lower. That takes into account
the fact that higher prices reduce demands somewhat an incentivized
USHL two to produce more. I think one challenge big
picture with potential supply disruptions in the Middle East is
that the most important buffer that the oil market benefits
(08:26):
from against supply disruptions namingly quite a bit of spare
capacity among OPEC core producers that's not necessarily available if
the production to the capacity to produce would would be
affected by bipotential disruptions because we think the bulk of
the spare capacity oil markets is concentrated both in Saudi
Arabia and the UI.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
Are you seeing any reductions to Iran in barrels right now?
Speaker 5 (08:50):
No? In fact, are now casts of Iran crude supply
is added three year high three point six million barrels
per day of crude. Iranian supply has actually doubled over
the last three years or so, and we're actually seeing
very high export flows at the moment. I think the
idea is to get the barrels out safely. Why while
(09:11):
we can, and at the moment, prices are are relatively
attractive given that Dan.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Do you think that if there is some sort of
calming down of the tensions, you could see a huge
decline in oil prices.
Speaker 5 (09:22):
Yes, So we estimated the jubilical respreamum around Tendall's per Beryl.
You know, if we if we increase, if the market
were to increase its its probability of our base case
that you don't see disruptions, this respremum could you know,
could come down. Uh, you know, it may take some
time for for us to to really learn whether we're
going to see see disruptions. Now. I think the hypothetical
(09:45):
scenario where where the three spremium comes up the more
quickly would be uh, you know, a successful rotori into
the negotiation tables between the US, the US and Iran.
But I think otherwise it would take some time for
for markets to you know, to get more confidence in
the basic case outlook for disruptions.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
On the flip side, Dan, there's this question about how
much the US is going to be affected versus other
countries or other regions. I'm thinking of Europe, I'm thinking
of Asia. How big is the dispersion in terms of
which areas would get disproportionately hit in terms of their
energy costs based on a myriad of potential disruptions to
oil supplies.
Speaker 5 (10:20):
Yes, so I would rank the vulnerability of the three
big regions as follows. Most vulnerable Europe, both because of
the exposure to oil prices but also natural gas prices,
and but also diesel prices where Europe no longer imports
diesel products from Russia, but it is heavily dependent on
the Middle East. Second, I would put Asia and the
(10:41):
third vulnerable, But the least vulnerable is the US because
the US natural gas market is quite insulated from global markets,
because the US is a large producer, and because the
US exports are basically at capacity. So if we were
to see large disruptions, oil prices would also rise and
increased costs for the US, But the US would be
(11:03):
the least vulnerable among the top three regions.
Speaker 4 (11:04):
Here, Dan, I love to pick up your point about
how Iran is at a three year high when it
comes to their barrels that they're producing and exporting. At
the same time, the Trump administration says they have maximum
pressure right now on Iran's oil industry, and they're going
after the teapots and the banks in Hong Kong and
China that facilitate all of this. How are they so
high if this administration says they're at max pressure.
Speaker 5 (11:28):
Yeah, So to your point, about ninety percent of Iran's
liquids exports. Iran is exporting just over two million barrels
play of liquids. About ninety percent goes to China, and
I think over the last two years the system has
built out an alternative supply chain with shipping companies, with ports,
with refiners, with alternative financial institutions that together ensure that
(11:52):
these barrels continue to reach global markets, and in particular
are quite price sensitive Chinese deepot refiners which have margins
and they basically need those those discounts to continue operating.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Donks Jovan of Goma Sachs down, Thank you, sir as
always stunning events. Over the weekend America's attack on around
years in the banking a stewth thirty six don long
operation named Midnight Hammer pilots dropped some of the largest
(12:26):
bombs in their arsenal on Iranian nuclear facilities. Joining us
now to discuss is the former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper.
Mister Secretary, welcome to the program, sir. We'd love to
lean on your experience the work to execute an operation
like this one and your rarely high level assessment of
his success.
Speaker 6 (12:45):
Well, good morning. Look, it was clearly successful in terms
of the execution. Our aircraft were able to make it
in drop what fourteen GBU fifty seven's, the submarines launched
ta lambs from offshore. We were out with impunity. Nobody
was hurt, and I just I think it speaks to
the skill and professionalism of the United States military. And
(13:07):
now I think what we have to do is two things.
First of all, get a good battle damage assessment, and
that will take a few days and maybe even then
will be incomplete until we get inspectors on the ground.
And then secondly, we're all waiting to see what Iran's
response will be. And there are various predictions you guys
have been talking about it what they may or may
not do. But that's what we're all waiting for now.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
If you're advising the president right now, what would you
say to him in terms of what to expect in
terms of Tehran's retaliation.
Speaker 6 (13:33):
Yeah, Look, I think there are a range of things
they could do, you know, were they could first of all,
use Shia militia groups in Iraq to target our people
and facilities there. Secondly, much like they did during my
time in early twenty twenty, they could launch Asavov missiles
against US forces in the Middle East, and there are
a couple dozen bases there with over forty thousand US
service members that they could go after. A third, there
(13:57):
could be sales here in the United States and globally.
Or they can go against American officials as they did
a couple of years ago and try that. And then
they could go after shipping in the straight of Hord moves,
which I think is unlikely, but to me, those are
the range of outcomes that they may pursue here in
the coming days.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
In twenty twenty, when cost them Sulimani was struck with
that drone strike, we did see retaliation, but it was
telegraphed through back channels to the US administration. Do you
think we could see Iran take that same approach this
time around?
Speaker 5 (14:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (14:28):
I think what they have to do is calibrate this
so that they do enough for domestic consumption, feel like
they've satisfied the military. They've struck back, tell the Iranian
people they struck back, but not so much that President
Trump really upset anti climbs that escalation ladder and really
hits them back fairly hard. Within hours of the missile
strikes at Eli Saud, we had Iranians on the phone
(14:50):
privately reaching out to us saying they were done, they
had no more, they wanted to stop fighting, et cetera.
And that was, of course long before we knew that
Americans service members suffer concussions and TBI. But nonetheless they'll
do a lot of backchilling because they look they can't
go much further. They're being dismantled, their leadership, certainly the
(15:10):
military side is being taken apart. Their nuclear sites have
been pummeled, and so the question is how long? How
much long can they go on?
Speaker 4 (15:18):
How can they even decide on some sort of retaliation
or strike against the United States. If the Supreme Leader
is reportedly hiding in a bunker, he's in his late
eighties and he has no access even to electronic communication.
Speaker 6 (15:33):
Yeah, Look, that's the big question is who's in charge,
How complete, how effective is the chain of command right now?
Are there instructions left behind to the IRGC or to
the missile forces to launch attacks that may may explain
why they haven't responded here in the twenty four to
thirty six hours since the US strikes on FDA, n
Ton's and Esfahan.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
There's one theory out there, Secretary, that this could potentially
reignite some of the efforts that are on has made
to achieve nuclear status, because that is the only deterrence,
and especially with the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium
missing into action, how concerned are you about that reality
going underground and really having the Iranian officials expedite those efforts.
Speaker 6 (16:18):
Yeah, Look, you bring up a good point that I
was going to raise. There's still nine hundred pounds of
sixty percent enriched uranium that's fairly close to what they
would need for ten nuclear weapons out there that we
don't have control. We don't know where it is. The
IE doesn't know where it is, so first of all,
we have to track that down. Secondly, we don't know
to what degree the Iranian infrastructure has been destroyed, and
(16:39):
even if it has, it's just a matter of time
before they rebuild. Now that at this point probably looks
more like years than anything else than months, but nonetheless,
until there is a fundamental change in the ambitions of
the regime or a fundamental change in the regime itself.
This is likely an ambition that will grow back over time,
arguably moreized than before because of what has happened here
(17:03):
in the last couple weeks.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
There's a larger point, Secretary that other people have been
making this morning, which is that it is a deterrent
to say Russia to China, showing what the US military
can do and is willing to do in the face
of some sort of red line that gets crossed. Do
you see it that way or do you see other
nations and seeing the need to become nuclear or having
(17:25):
some sort of deterrent that really takes this potential outcome
off the table.
Speaker 6 (17:31):
You know, deterrence is based on two things, capability and will.
And I think everybody's understood the United States military has
the capability to do a lot of things. I don't
think anybody ever doubted we could do what we did
with regard to be two stealth bombers entering Iranian airspace
and dropping these bunker busters. I think what is different
here is President Trump has shown the willingness to do
it despite domestic voices coming from both the right and
(17:54):
left saying he shouldn't do it. So I think in
this regard it's more of his willingness to take action,
which probably caught Rushes and Beijing's attention.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Well, this is one criticism of the previous administration, as
you know, missed the secretary. The faibiates provide a satisfactory
terrance in key waterways in this region, and I'm thinking
more of the Red Sea over the last few years
as we think about the Strait of Hormos, Can you
just share with us what you learn about the best
way to provide it to Terrance and to prevent the
disruption of those waterways. Yeah.
Speaker 6 (18:25):
Well, look, I think sending a clear message first ball
is important. But secondly, and I say this in light
of the fact that the Iranian Parliament yesterday voted that
Iran should close the Straight of Horror Moves, I think
there's going to be a good argument if they strike
back to take out the Iranian Navy, particularly those elements
of the navy that could shut down or obstruct or
hijack shipping in the Straight of hor Moves. So you
could sink the mind layers of the navy. You could
(18:48):
go after the swarm boats that tend to come up
upon cargo tankers and take them ashore. You could knock
out Iranian missile batteries on the coastline. So I think,
to me, that would be the top of my list.
If Iran tries to shut down the strait or takes
more aggressive action, beat it to take that card out
of their hand, because everybody is concerned about shutting down
(19:09):
the straight of horror moves, and yet even though we
fly in the face of their own interests, they continue
to threaten.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
That difficult to answer the next question, sir, but just
to find a question. Do you get the sense that
American involvement in this operation is over or do you
think this might be ongoing.
Speaker 6 (19:25):
I think it's to be determined based on how Iran responds.
I think President Trump's instincts have long been since the
time I work with him. He does not want to
get involved in wars. He doesn't want this to go
on and on and on. I think if Iran shoots
missiles and they're largely effectless, I think we stand back.
We probably continue to support the Israelis with munition and
intelligence and defensive air defense capabilities. But I think in
(19:49):
terms of continuing strikes, we probably step back at that
time and then urge a negotiation. By the way, a
negotiation between Iran and Israel that's going to have to
include a return to the non proliferation room and inspectors
and verification mechanisms on the ground in Iran.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
That's absolutely critical parteically thoughtful conversations. And we appreciate your time.
They former US Defense Secretary Marc Astro stop of the
price section and your morning coast. Let's send back to
our top story about pricing for Iran's response after the
(20:24):
US attacks. It's nuclear sites over the weekend, joining US
now is standing and is ready. Ambassador to the United Nations,
ambassador com monitor.
Speaker 7 (20:32):
It's good to say morning, thank you for having me.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
Let's talk about the events over the weekend, and let's
talk about this also. Who's in charge in a round
right now? Amory has been talking about this all morning,
the chain of command. Who's in charge?
Speaker 7 (20:43):
Well, it's Aututel, you know, the other regime which still
hath control over the population. But you know, U see
statements coming out the minute door for in a furld
is flying all over sending threats to either to the US.
I don't think that they run today in a position
to threaten anyone. They should think very carefully about the
next steps, what they want to do, what they should do.
(21:05):
You know, our position was very clear that we had
the gold in this operation to degrade the capabilities. I
think we achieved a lot so far. We still have
more targets, but I think when you look at Iran
today and you compare it to the last time I
was here a week ago, it's a different ballgame. They
don't have those capabilities over the reactors, and I think
(21:25):
we were able to push back, you know, significantly a
one more than expected.
Speaker 4 (21:30):
You were here just a little of a week ago,
the morning after those versus rarely strike started and you
said it would take days or weeks.
Speaker 8 (21:36):
This operation.
Speaker 4 (21:37):
We heard from the Prime Minister's day Benjaminett and Yahoo
he said they're very close to completing the goal of
elimiting the dual threats pallistic missiles and nuclear capabilities.
Speaker 8 (21:47):
Where are we on the timeline?
Speaker 7 (21:49):
So I can also give you exact dates, but I
think you know the main challenges we had, which were
the nuclear reactors. You know, with alt of the US
attack magnificent, you know, the US they had the capabilities
that we don't have. So on that issue, I can
tell that we achieved most of what we wanted, but
still we have the ballistic missiles, which is a major threat.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
To as well.
Speaker 7 (22:10):
It's important to know that we all speak about the
nuclear threat, but when you have one thousand ballistic missiles
targeting well, it's a problem. So we took a lot
of those launchers, but we still have.
Speaker 8 (22:21):
More to go when it comes to nuclear facilities. Though.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
This morning the IDEA said that they went after four
dough dreances and exits to make sure they were preventing
the removal of these materials. How do you assess what
is what around has right now in terms of their
nuclear capabilities.
Speaker 7 (22:38):
Well, it is a big country and they were hiding
a lot of the materials and they were trying to
move stuff. So we cannot guarantee the result. But when
you look at the infrastructure, at the machine of tale
that they built, and by the way, they spent hundreds
of billions over the years, now it's not there. So
we cannot guarantee one hundred percent result, but we can
(22:59):
tell they don't have the the actors. It would take
them decades. Do we build it.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
There is a question about how much regime change is
part of what Israel is trying to do. We've heard
President Trump discuss that as well. What's your sense of
how much that's also one of the aims.
Speaker 7 (23:14):
Well, I can tell you feelings. You know, we all
wish that they would be a regym change for the
people of Iran. They're victims of this regime, you know,
so we pray for that. But the question if it's
the goal of the operation, I think you know, it's
not our goal, and we help President Trump also, it's
very hard to tell the people of Iran what's good
for them. They should decide, and I hope that they
(23:36):
will take the right decision.
Speaker 8 (23:37):
They deserve better. You're the ambassador's in that Nations.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Earlier this year, Israel withdrew from the You and Human
Rights Council, following the US and doing that. What role
does the United Nations have to play in some of
these negotiations at a time where people are wondering about
its institutional relevance.
Speaker 7 (23:54):
Well, I agree with you that they should think for carefully.
Yesterday there was an emergency session of the Security Council
in some countries condemned the US, and they told them,
where will you or all though the US when they
reach the UN, you when they build the reactors, now
you come and you and you condemn Israel in the US.
So the UN should be much more effective. And basically
they're allowed Iran to do what they did all those
(24:16):
the US and I still believe in the UN, but
I think the UN should be reformed. We expect the
new US ambassador to arrive soon, and I think that
together we can change what's happening there.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
There's a line that used earlier in the conversation. You
reflected on the US capabilities and you said that the
US has capabilities that we don't have, and it raises
the question I think makes some people in this country uncomfortable.
This Israels start an operation knowing that they wouldn't be
able to complete it without US involvement.
Speaker 7 (24:46):
No, absolutely not, And I said it. I think last
time I was here, we have the capabilities. It will
take longer, it would be more painful, but we can
deal with the threats. So I think what the decision
of the US was the right decision because now it
would be a s shorter wall, and I think it's
much more effective how are.
Speaker 8 (25:04):
You preparing for the retaliation?
Speaker 7 (25:07):
So first we have to acknowledge it's not easy for us.
You know, the entire country is not functioning today. You know,
people are not going to walk, people staying next to
the shelters, and they talk about nine point five million
people for almost two weeks. It's heavy. But we are
willing to continue as long as it takes. But we
believe that we as they said earlier, we achieved most
(25:28):
of the goals. Now we have a few more things
we want to take it off.
Speaker 8 (25:31):
And now with are those few more things.
Speaker 7 (25:33):
You know, mainly the ballistic missiles, the industry. You know,
they built a huge infrastructure to produce ballistic missiles. They
wanted to compete with the US and Russia and they
were very close to get there. So we want to
make sure that it would be very hard for them
to rebuild those capabilities, these.
Speaker 4 (25:49):
Kind of blistic missiles coming from around and their nuclear program.
Speaker 8 (25:52):
This is the point of the regime.
Speaker 4 (25:54):
Can you decimate their ballistic missile program, their nuclear program.
Speaker 8 (25:59):
Without death mating the regime.
Speaker 7 (26:01):
Well, we hope that they will not have the desire
after what happened in the last two weeks that they
will understand that we will be there if they will
continue with the aspirations to eliminate Israel, it will will
be there before the attack us. We learn the lessons
after October seventh, we are not taking any chances.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Ambassador. We appreciate your time. Once again, thanks for thanking
the Australian pansador to the un There, Danny Denaud, This
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Speaker 2 (00:11):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day
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(00:34):
Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. To extend the conversation,
the former senior US intelligence official, Normal Raw joins us
now for more Normal Welcome back to the program sir.
Just a quote from the Defense Secretary pet Agseth called
it an incredible and overwhelming success. How should we define success?
This Monday morning?
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Good morning, Well, we have a changed Middle East. The
United States and Israel of conducted devastating attacks against all
ofver Ron's air defense, his leadership nuclear programs in Iran's
response has been generally feeble. What response Iran has been
able to conduct, to include missile attacks against Israel have
(01:11):
not impacted the strategic course of the conflict. The numbers
are moving in a direction where Iran's missile program is
being whittled away, and Iran's nuclear program is effectively destroyed.
There will be elements that remain, there will be elements
that are concerning, but its nuclear program is effectively destroyed.
Speaker 4 (01:31):
Norman, no one really understands Iran quite like you. What
do you think that Iotola is weighing up right now?
The menu of options in terms of a response.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Well, there are many people who understand Iran are better
than me. But within Iran, the decision making structure is
going to be challenged. His leadership has been changed. He
himself is in a difficult, hidden location. Some of his
leadership is being hunted, perhaps by the Israelis. They're under attack,
their economy is poor, their population is restive. Let me
(02:03):
give you an example of options and the challenges. If
they close the straight of her moves, they close off
most of the many of the food stuffs, the vegetable oils,
the primary goods that come into the country to feed
the population. Now, that is something that you really don't
want to do at a time when your population may
erupt into major unrest. So they have many challenges with
(02:24):
all of the decisions they make. But again, if they
close the straight of her moves, it does not impact Israel,
and it will bring in the United States and could
likely lead to the end of the regime.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
Do you think these strikes get around to the table?
The President continues to say he wants to see a
diplomatic path forward.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Not immediately. But what it does do is it tells
the world that the United States is pushing for diplomacy,
and that actually encourages the world to push back on
Iran's efforts to escalate the contact conflict or isolate the
United States. So in the past, in some cases the
United States seemed as the aggressor or are alone. But
(03:03):
the United States is an essence saying you can't have
a program that is moving towards a nuclear weapon, but
we're interested in a diplomatic deal. Be reasonable. Iran is
not being reasonable and it has no allies.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
No, I mean you said that the nuclear program has
effectively been destroyed. There's a lot of concern among a
number of circles about the four hundred kilograms of enriched
uranium that have gone missing that previously were held near Isfahan,
as well as equipment that was taken out of four
Dah before the attacks. Do you have any sense of
either where that could be or how close that could
be to being to restarting some of the nuclear programs
(03:38):
that are on previously had So those.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Are valid concerns. So we should be concerned about Iran's
remaining nuclear material. It will have nuclear scientists, it will
have nuclear knowledge, and it will have parts and equipment
related to centrifuges that it did not declare to the
IEA that it could in theory assemble and recreate in
a covert facility. But let's think about that for a minute.
(04:04):
If you believe what you read in the newspapers, the
United States and Israel have is some extremely good intelligence
on Iran. So they're going to have to put this together,
get away with it, and then the United States and
Israel are going to have to not learn about it
and not destroy it. Now that's possible, but it's unlikely.
But it is something that's going to require diplomatic pressure
(04:24):
so that it can be identified and removed, and it's
probably a card Iran will play in the talks.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
What do you think the Foreign Minister of Iran is
doing over in Russia today, we know that he is
meeting with Vladimir Putin, and there's a real question around
what the ask is and whether it will be the
response that Iranians are looking for.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Diplomatic support pressure in the UN. Iran has obtained consistent
diplomatic support at the United Nations Security Consul, the International
Atomic Energy Agency, and other diplomatic fora from Russia and
China over the years. In fact, these two countries have
block any major pressure on Iran for its proliferation missiles,
nuclear program and terrorism. And this is really the moment
(05:06):
where these two countries can can produce this. It's unlikely
that either of these countries are going to provide any
military support. The Strategic Agreement that has been signed between
Russia and Iran it doesn't provide for that sort of relationship.
But Iran, again it has no allies, but it does
have partners who have provided a support in international fora
(05:26):
that may help on diplomatic talks.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Norman, just before you go, just a brief assessment of
this operation thirty seven as long one hundred and twenty
five aircraft B two bombers, fourth and fifth generation fighters
as well thirty thousand pounds bunker buster bombs missiles launched
from a submarine as well. Norman, how smooth, how well executed,
with the logistics, the precision of this operation.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
This operation speaks to the training, leadership, and the technology
of the United States military has had for a number
of years. This operation has been stayed in the press,
has been practiced for many years. This is not something
that has occurred in any recent administration, but this recent
(06:11):
administration it had to refine. It significantly matched the target set.
But what you are seeing is a technology and capability
in leadership and no country can match. And I think
North Korea and other countries in the world to include
China and Russia are looking in the past weeks and
saying the world is also a little different from their perspective.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
It's a strong final point Norman appreciated time. Sir Norman
role Valley, former senior US intelligence official. Down story for
a gobent snacks right in the following. A hypothetical sustained
a very large disruption of energy supply transit would likely
(06:51):
push oil and European natural gas price is above one
hundred and ten dollars per barrel. Joining US now is
down story for a golment Sachs, Dan, that's the hypothetical.
Let's talk about a base case. What is the base case?
Forem of the team so found the smarting.
Speaker 5 (07:04):
Yeah, so base case remains that we don't see significant
disruptions neither of oil or natural gas in the Middle East.
And in our base case without disruptions, we actually have
energy prices gradually declining, with brands reaching around sixty dollars
per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, and
with TTF europe natural gas prices also declining, especially next
(07:26):
year with the arrival of all these extra energy supply
cargo terminals.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Dan, how high could oil go if Iran does not
close the Strait of Hormos but does other potential attacks
on energy infrastructure or tankers that potentially disrupt the flow
of energy coming out of the region.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
Yeah, so you know, old prices could rise significantly in
those scenarios. And the key reason is that the Middle
East the Gulf countries are remain the largest regional producer
in global global oil markets. In general. Our estimate is
that for every one million barrels per day drop of
(08:05):
supply that sustained for about a year, brand should be
about eight dollars per barrel lower. That takes into account
the fact that higher prices reduce demands somewhat an incentivized
USHL two to produce more. I think one challenge big
picture with potential supply disruptions in the Middle East is
that the most important buffer that the oil market benefits
(08:26):
from against supply disruptions namingly quite a bit of spare
capacity among OPEC core producers that's not necessarily available if
the production to the capacity to produce would would be
affected by bipotential disruptions because we think the bulk of
the spare capacity oil markets is concentrated both in Saudi
Arabia and the UI.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
Are you seeing any reductions to Iran in barrels right now?
Speaker 5 (08:50):
No? In fact, are now casts of Iran crude supply
is added three year high three point six million barrels
per day of crude. Iranian supply has actually doubled over
the last three years or so, and we're actually seeing
very high export flows at the moment. I think the
idea is to get the barrels out safely. Why while
(09:11):
we can, and at the moment, prices are are relatively
attractive given that Dan.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Do you think that if there is some sort of
calming down of the tensions, you could see a huge
decline in oil prices.
Speaker 5 (09:22):
Yes, So we estimated the jubilical respreamum around Tendall's per Beryl.
You know, if we if we increase, if the market
were to increase its its probability of our base case
that you don't see disruptions, this respremum could you know,
could come down. Uh, you know, it may take some
time for for us to to really learn whether we're
going to see see disruptions. Now. I think the hypothetical
(09:45):
scenario where where the three spremium comes up the more
quickly would be uh, you know, a successful rotori into
the negotiation tables between the US, the US and Iran.
But I think otherwise it would take some time for
for markets to you know, to get more confidence in
the basic case outlook for disruptions.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
On the flip side, Dan, there's this question about how
much the US is going to be affected versus other
countries or other regions. I'm thinking of Europe, I'm thinking
of Asia. How big is the dispersion in terms of
which areas would get disproportionately hit in terms of their
energy costs based on a myriad of potential disruptions to
oil supplies.
Speaker 5 (10:20):
Yes, so I would rank the vulnerability of the three
big regions as follows. Most vulnerable Europe, both because of
the exposure to oil prices but also natural gas prices,
and but also diesel prices where Europe no longer imports
diesel products from Russia, but it is heavily dependent on
the Middle East. Second, I would put Asia and the
(10:41):
third vulnerable, But the least vulnerable is the US because
the US natural gas market is quite insulated from global markets,
because the US is a large producer, and because the
US exports are basically at capacity. So if we were
to see large disruptions, oil prices would also rise and
increased costs for the US, But the US would be
(11:03):
the least vulnerable among the top three regions.
Speaker 4 (11:04):
Here, Dan, I love to pick up your point about
how Iran is at a three year high when it
comes to their barrels that they're producing and exporting. At
the same time, the Trump administration says they have maximum
pressure right now on Iran's oil industry, and they're going
after the teapots and the banks in Hong Kong and
China that facilitate all of this. How are they so
high if this administration says they're at max pressure.
Speaker 5 (11:28):
Yeah, So to your point, about ninety percent of Iran's
liquids exports. Iran is exporting just over two million barrels
play of liquids. About ninety percent goes to China, and
I think over the last two years the system has
built out an alternative supply chain with shipping companies, with ports,
with refiners, with alternative financial institutions that together ensure that
(11:52):
these barrels continue to reach global markets, and in particular
are quite price sensitive Chinese deepot refiners which have margins
and they basically need those those discounts to continue operating.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Donks Jovan of Goma Sachs down, Thank you, sir as
always stunning events. Over the weekend America's attack on around
years in the banking a stewth thirty six don long
operation named Midnight Hammer pilots dropped some of the largest
(12:26):
bombs in their arsenal on Iranian nuclear facilities. Joining us
now to discuss is the former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper.
Mister Secretary, welcome to the program, sir. We'd love to
lean on your experience the work to execute an operation
like this one and your rarely high level assessment of
his success.
Speaker 6 (12:45):
Well, good morning. Look, it was clearly successful in terms
of the execution. Our aircraft were able to make it
in drop what fourteen GBU fifty seven's, the submarines launched
ta lambs from offshore. We were out with impunity. Nobody
was hurt, and I just I think it speaks to
the skill and professionalism of the United States military. And
(13:07):
now I think what we have to do is two things.
First of all, get a good battle damage assessment, and
that will take a few days and maybe even then
will be incomplete until we get inspectors on the ground.
And then secondly, we're all waiting to see what Iran's
response will be. And there are various predictions you guys
have been talking about it what they may or may
not do. But that's what we're all waiting for now.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
If you're advising the president right now, what would you
say to him in terms of what to expect in
terms of Tehran's retaliation.
Speaker 6 (13:33):
Yeah, Look, I think there are a range of things
they could do, you know, were they could first of all,
use Shia militia groups in Iraq to target our people
and facilities there. Secondly, much like they did during my
time in early twenty twenty, they could launch Asavov missiles
against US forces in the Middle East, and there are
a couple dozen bases there with over forty thousand US
service members that they could go after. A third, there
(13:57):
could be sales here in the United States and globally.
Or they can go against American officials as they did
a couple of years ago and try that. And then
they could go after shipping in the straight of Hord moves,
which I think is unlikely, but to me, those are
the range of outcomes that they may pursue here in
the coming days.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
In twenty twenty, when cost them Sulimani was struck with
that drone strike, we did see retaliation, but it was
telegraphed through back channels to the US administration. Do you
think we could see Iran take that same approach this
time around?
Speaker 5 (14:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (14:28):
I think what they have to do is calibrate this
so that they do enough for domestic consumption, feel like
they've satisfied the military. They've struck back, tell the Iranian
people they struck back, but not so much that President
Trump really upset anti climbs that escalation ladder and really
hits them back fairly hard. Within hours of the missile
strikes at Eli Saud, we had Iranians on the phone
(14:50):
privately reaching out to us saying they were done, they
had no more, they wanted to stop fighting, et cetera.
And that was, of course long before we knew that
Americans service members suffer concussions and TBI. But nonetheless they'll
do a lot of backchilling because they look they can't
go much further. They're being dismantled, their leadership, certainly the
(15:10):
military side is being taken apart. Their nuclear sites have
been pummeled, and so the question is how long? How
much long can they go on?
Speaker 4 (15:18):
How can they even decide on some sort of retaliation
or strike against the United States. If the Supreme Leader
is reportedly hiding in a bunker, he's in his late
eighties and he has no access even to electronic communication.
Speaker 6 (15:33):
Yeah, Look, that's the big question is who's in charge,
How complete, how effective is the chain of command right now?
Are there instructions left behind to the IRGC or to
the missile forces to launch attacks that may may explain
why they haven't responded here in the twenty four to
thirty six hours since the US strikes on FDA, n
Ton's and Esfahan.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
There's one theory out there, Secretary, that this could potentially
reignite some of the efforts that are on has made
to achieve nuclear status, because that is the only deterrence,
and especially with the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium
missing into action, how concerned are you about that reality
going underground and really having the Iranian officials expedite those efforts.
Speaker 6 (16:18):
Yeah, Look, you bring up a good point that I
was going to raise. There's still nine hundred pounds of
sixty percent enriched uranium that's fairly close to what they
would need for ten nuclear weapons out there that we
don't have control. We don't know where it is. The
IE doesn't know where it is, so first of all,
we have to track that down. Secondly, we don't know
to what degree the Iranian infrastructure has been destroyed, and
(16:39):
even if it has, it's just a matter of time
before they rebuild. Now that at this point probably looks
more like years than anything else than months, but nonetheless,
until there is a fundamental change in the ambitions of
the regime or a fundamental change in the regime itself.
This is likely an ambition that will grow back over time,
arguably moreized than before because of what has happened here
(17:03):
in the last couple weeks.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
There's a larger point, Secretary that other people have been
making this morning, which is that it is a deterrent
to say Russia to China, showing what the US military
can do and is willing to do in the face
of some sort of red line that gets crossed. Do
you see it that way or do you see other
nations and seeing the need to become nuclear or having
(17:25):
some sort of deterrent that really takes this potential outcome
off the table.
Speaker 6 (17:31):
You know, deterrence is based on two things, capability and will.
And I think everybody's understood the United States military has
the capability to do a lot of things. I don't
think anybody ever doubted we could do what we did
with regard to be two stealth bombers entering Iranian airspace
and dropping these bunker busters. I think what is different
here is President Trump has shown the willingness to do
it despite domestic voices coming from both the right and
(17:54):
left saying he shouldn't do it. So I think in
this regard it's more of his willingness to take action,
which probably caught Rushes and Beijing's attention.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Well, this is one criticism of the previous administration, as
you know, missed the secretary. The faibiates provide a satisfactory
terrance in key waterways in this region, and I'm thinking
more of the Red Sea over the last few years
as we think about the Strait of Hormos, Can you
just share with us what you learn about the best
way to provide it to Terrance and to prevent the
disruption of those waterways. Yeah.
Speaker 6 (18:25):
Well, look, I think sending a clear message first ball
is important. But secondly, and I say this in light
of the fact that the Iranian Parliament yesterday voted that
Iran should close the Straight of Horror Moves, I think
there's going to be a good argument if they strike
back to take out the Iranian Navy, particularly those elements
of the navy that could shut down or obstruct or
hijack shipping in the Straight of hor Moves. So you
could sink the mind layers of the navy. You could
(18:48):
go after the swarm boats that tend to come up
upon cargo tankers and take them ashore. You could knock
out Iranian missile batteries on the coastline. So I think,
to me, that would be the top of my list.
If Iran tries to shut down the strait or takes
more aggressive action, beat it to take that card out
of their hand, because everybody is concerned about shutting down
(19:09):
the straight of horror moves, and yet even though we
fly in the face of their own interests, they continue
to threaten.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
That difficult to answer the next question, sir, but just
to find a question. Do you get the sense that
American involvement in this operation is over or do you
think this might be ongoing.
Speaker 6 (19:25):
I think it's to be determined based on how Iran responds.
I think President Trump's instincts have long been since the
time I work with him. He does not want to
get involved in wars. He doesn't want this to go
on and on and on. I think if Iran shoots
missiles and they're largely effectless, I think we stand back.
We probably continue to support the Israelis with munition and
intelligence and defensive air defense capabilities. But I think in
(19:49):
terms of continuing strikes, we probably step back at that
time and then urge a negotiation. By the way, a
negotiation between Iran and Israel that's going to have to
include a return to the non proliferation room and inspectors
and verification mechanisms on the ground in Iran.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
That's absolutely critical parteically thoughtful conversations. And we appreciate your time.
They former US Defense Secretary Marc Astro stop of the
price section and your morning coast. Let's send back to
our top story about pricing for Iran's response after the
(20:24):
US attacks. It's nuclear sites over the weekend, joining US
now is standing and is ready. Ambassador to the United Nations,
ambassador com monitor.
Speaker 7 (20:32):
It's good to say morning, thank you for having me.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
Let's talk about the events over the weekend, and let's
talk about this also. Who's in charge in a round
right now? Amory has been talking about this all morning,
the chain of command. Who's in charge?
Speaker 7 (20:43):
Well, it's Aututel, you know, the other regime which still
hath control over the population. But you know, U see
statements coming out the minute door for in a furld
is flying all over sending threats to either to the US.
I don't think that they run today in a position
to threaten anyone. They should think very carefully about the
next steps, what they want to do, what they should do.
(21:05):
You know, our position was very clear that we had
the gold in this operation to degrade the capabilities. I
think we achieved a lot so far. We still have
more targets, but I think when you look at Iran
today and you compare it to the last time I
was here a week ago, it's a different ballgame. They
don't have those capabilities over the reactors, and I think
(21:25):
we were able to push back, you know, significantly a
one more than expected.
Speaker 4 (21:30):
You were here just a little of a week ago,
the morning after those versus rarely strike started and you
said it would take days or weeks.
Speaker 8 (21:36):
This operation.
Speaker 4 (21:37):
We heard from the Prime Minister's day Benjaminett and Yahoo
he said they're very close to completing the goal of
elimiting the dual threats pallistic missiles and nuclear capabilities.
Speaker 8 (21:47):
Where are we on the timeline?
Speaker 7 (21:49):
So I can also give you exact dates, but I
think you know the main challenges we had, which were
the nuclear reactors. You know, with alt of the US
attack magnificent, you know, the US they had the capabilities
that we don't have. So on that issue, I can
tell that we achieved most of what we wanted, but
still we have the ballistic missiles, which is a major threat.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
To as well.
Speaker 7 (22:10):
It's important to know that we all speak about the
nuclear threat, but when you have one thousand ballistic missiles
targeting well, it's a problem. So we took a lot
of those launchers, but we still have.
Speaker 8 (22:21):
More to go when it comes to nuclear facilities. Though.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
This morning the IDEA said that they went after four
dough dreances and exits to make sure they were preventing
the removal of these materials. How do you assess what
is what around has right now in terms of their
nuclear capabilities.
Speaker 7 (22:38):
Well, it is a big country and they were hiding
a lot of the materials and they were trying to
move stuff. So we cannot guarantee the result. But when
you look at the infrastructure, at the machine of tale
that they built, and by the way, they spent hundreds
of billions over the years, now it's not there. So
we cannot guarantee one hundred percent result, but we can
(22:59):
tell they don't have the the actors. It would take
them decades. Do we build it.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
There is a question about how much regime change is
part of what Israel is trying to do. We've heard
President Trump discuss that as well. What's your sense of
how much that's also one of the aims.
Speaker 7 (23:14):
Well, I can tell you feelings. You know, we all
wish that they would be a regym change for the
people of Iran. They're victims of this regime, you know,
so we pray for that. But the question if it's
the goal of the operation, I think you know, it's
not our goal, and we help President Trump also, it's
very hard to tell the people of Iran what's good
for them. They should decide, and I hope that they
(23:36):
will take the right decision.
Speaker 8 (23:37):
They deserve better. You're the ambassador's in that Nations.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Earlier this year, Israel withdrew from the You and Human
Rights Council, following the US and doing that. What role
does the United Nations have to play in some of
these negotiations at a time where people are wondering about
its institutional relevance.
Speaker 7 (23:54):
Well, I agree with you that they should think for carefully.
Yesterday there was an emergency session of the Security Council
in some countries condemned the US, and they told them,
where will you or all though the US when they
reach the UN, you when they build the reactors, now
you come and you and you condemn Israel in the US.
So the UN should be much more effective. And basically
they're allowed Iran to do what they did all those
(24:16):
the US and I still believe in the UN, but
I think the UN should be reformed. We expect the
new US ambassador to arrive soon, and I think that
together we can change what's happening there.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
There's a line that used earlier in the conversation. You
reflected on the US capabilities and you said that the
US has capabilities that we don't have, and it raises
the question I think makes some people in this country uncomfortable.
This Israels start an operation knowing that they wouldn't be
able to complete it without US involvement.
Speaker 7 (24:46):
No, absolutely not, And I said it. I think last
time I was here, we have the capabilities. It will
take longer, it would be more painful, but we can
deal with the threats. So I think what the decision
of the US was the right decision because now it
would be a s shorter wall, and I think it's
much more effective how are.
Speaker 8 (25:04):
You preparing for the retaliation?
Speaker 7 (25:07):
So first we have to acknowledge it's not easy for us.
You know, the entire country is not functioning today. You know,
people are not going to walk, people staying next to
the shelters, and they talk about nine point five million
people for almost two weeks. It's heavy. But we are
willing to continue as long as it takes. But we
believe that we as they said earlier, we achieved most
(25:28):
of the goals. Now we have a few more things
we want to take it off.
Speaker 8 (25:31):
And now with are those few more things.
Speaker 7 (25:33):
You know, mainly the ballistic missiles, the industry. You know,
they built a huge infrastructure to produce ballistic missiles. They
wanted to compete with the US and Russia and they
were very close to get there. So we want to
make sure that it would be very hard for them
to rebuild those capabilities, these.
Speaker 4 (25:49):
Kind of blistic missiles coming from around and their nuclear program.
Speaker 8 (25:52):
This is the point of the regime.
Speaker 4 (25:54):
Can you decimate their ballistic missile program, their nuclear program.
Speaker 8 (25:59):
Without death mating the regime.
Speaker 7 (26:01):
Well, we hope that they will not have the desire
after what happened in the last two weeks that they
will understand that we will be there if they will
continue with the aspirations to eliminate Israel, it will will
be there before the attack us. We learn the lessons
after October seventh, we are not taking any chances.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Ambassador. We appreciate your time. Once again, thanks for thanking
the Australian pansador to the un There, Danny Denaud, This
is the Bloomberg Sevenans podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics,
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com