June 27, 2025 • 38 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 27th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Neil Dutta, Head of US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, reacts to PCE and breaks down the latest economic data. Stocks gained in early trading as the US moved closer to trade deals with China and other major trading partners, with expectations rising for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.
2) Monica Guerra, Executive Director and Head of US Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, talks about her "US Policy Pulse" note on the energy sector and geopolitical dynamics, and can also discuss the tax bill and tariff deadline. China and the US have further confirmed details of a trade framework and the Treasury Department has announced a deal with G-7 allies to exclude US companies from some taxes imposed by other countries in exchange for removing the Section 899 "revenge tax" proposal from President Trump's tax bill.
3) Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, talks about global bond market signals and US economic resilience. The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed in early trading after data Friday showed inflation inched up in France and Spain, but not enough to concern European Central Bank officials who are optimistic that their 2% target will be met sustainably this year.
4) James Steel, Chief Commodities Analyst at HSBC, talks about gold hitting record highs and the outlook for gold and other metals.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Bloomberg News story on Target trying to compete with Costco and an FT story on whether K-pop losing steam.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
We are advantaged with Neil Dot of Renaissance Macro. Neil,
you were my economist of the Year with resilient optimism
in the depths of COVID. You've turned more cautious When
I see a stock market go to record highs, how
can I be cautious?
Speaker 3 (00:43):
No, it's a great point. I mean, and clearly, Tom,
the pain trade is stocks go higher. I mean, you
have the market at basically new highs, and you know
it looks like bear's out number of bulls, so that's,
you know, I mean, pretty good sign the pain trade
is higher.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
You know.
Speaker 4 (01:02):
Look, I mean.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
You know the I think you know, the stock market
is a very useful discounting mechanism, so it's always important
to keep an eye on it, especially when you have
a cautious economic view like I do. But you know,
it's also worth pointing out that it's not a perfect
discounting mechanism. Right, So when I think about why stocks
have gone up, you know, it's earnings rates and risk
premium and earnings estimates keep going higher. Has been coming down.
(01:28):
You know, you're getting soothing words on trade and interest
rates have been coming down as the market's bet. You know,
I guess more in the direction of our FED view.
So that's what's powering the stock market higher, which kind
of raises the stakes for what earnings looks like going forward.
I mean, obviously, economic data generally over the last number
of weeks on net has been negative, and you know,
(01:52):
you'd expect, you know, some of that to bleed into.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
The way, doesn't David Dona just reised Jeff de Graf's research. Yeah,
he doesn't know anything about this stock, right, he just
listens to the graph.
Speaker 5 (02:03):
David gir I love that you call your it was
your formerly your economists of the year. Do you get
a trophy for that? Is there like a no, he
gets a beverage of beverage of his choice at the
the time of his choosing. You let me stick with
the soothingness that you talked about in terms of the
rhetoric that we've heard from the FED on and what
we've heard from policymakers on tariffs as well. How much
of a disconnect is there as you see it, between
what we're hearing from from them and as you see
(02:24):
the state of the economy today.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Well, I mean, my big gripe is really the state
of the economy as it is not so much what
tariffs are doing to the economy, because, in my opinion,
I mean, before tariffs even happened, I mean, we were
talking about a frozen housing market, a frozen labor market,
a capex cycle that was really just about tech not
much else. And uh, you know, I mean, tariffs make
(02:51):
that bad situation worse. But you know, look, I mean, David,
I mean for the US economy, what I'm really focused
on right now is the ongoing deterioration in labor markets.
We have continuing claims rising to fresh highs week after
a week. That means that unemployment is probably going up,
and housing continues to get worse, particularly new family housing.
(03:16):
Right so, that to me is an important thing to consider.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
I got a year over your PCE coming up here
in one minute quickly Neil dot A thirty seconds two
point one percent to a surveyed two point three percent.
Is that on the edge of stagflation inflation?
Speaker 3 (03:32):
No, I mean this would be the third consecutive month
where core inflation is running point one, I mean stagflation.
We have more stag than we have flation right now.
So yeah, deflation, theflation part is very much in the
range of a forecast. And I think it's important for
people to explain why the tariff induced inflation likely is
(03:56):
anything more than a one off.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Nil douta with Renaissance macro nailing the stag of stagflation.
I see real personal spending with a negative statistic Neil,
what does that signal for future GDP?
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Well, it's going to mean that you're going to see
some downward revisions to estimates of GDP. And remember that
the estimates weren't that strong to begin with. You know,
I'm a little bit surprised that the consensus missed the
real consumption number because we did see unit auto sales
come down quite meaningfully over the month, and so you know, look,
(04:34):
I mean, if you look at this data, what it
shows is real consumption came in a bit weaker than expected,
and core inflation came in a bit firmer than expected.
So without having you know, dialed into all the details.
It just tells you that consumers are resistant to higher prices, right,
and that's because ultimately consumer you know, inflation, in my opinion,
(04:56):
really boils down to the household budget constraint. You know
right now, you know if you look at real income
NETA transfers, that's up only one and a half percent
against last year, and you know that kind of sets
the table for what what consumer spending will more or
(05:18):
less do. And you know you're talking about, I think,
at a minimum of a low potential growth.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Environment, David Gerr. I see the line item in PC.
There's like two hundred line items and there's one for
summer camp. Would you care to comment on that.
Speaker 5 (05:32):
I'll strained all my resources now that I have two
of them going. But no, that's that's an extreme one.
Let me go back to the housing market, which you
mentioned just a moment ago as one of the two
things that you're you're kind of focusing on and suggesting
counseling us to focus on here as well. How big
a drag is that likely to be on the economy.
More broadly, you're looking here at sort of new home
starts and projecting a lot of nuance into the way
that we should be thinking about them.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Well, sure, I mean, remember this is on the first
time during this cycle where we've seen residential investment go down.
The first time was back in twenty two when the
FED was gearing up massive you know, rate hiking campaigns,
so they basically crushed home sales. But what was important
about that period was you were still in a situation
where you know, home units under construction were rising. Right now,
(06:18):
you're in a situation where housing starts are running, you know,
below completions, which basically means that units under construction will
continue to come down. If you look also at the
slack in the new housing market, you have you know,
essentially cycle highs and unsold new housing inventory. So that
(06:41):
kind of begs the question as to why builders are
going to break ground on new homes to start with,
because it makes much more sense at this point for
them to kind of sell out of the homes they've
already made as opposed to breaking ground on new homes.
So that means units under construction will keep falling, and that,
you know, sort of begs the question as to what's
going to happen with construcuction employment, which has been you know,
(07:02):
relatively uh, you know, hanging in there, you know, over
the last number of years or so. And then you
talk about, you know, home prices are are are declining, uh,
you know nationally, particularly the south and the West, which
is where the builders have been making the home. So
(07:22):
I do think that construction activity and residential is going
to be coming down, and I think that's going to
have effects on unemployment over the over the coming months.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Neil dudda with us is the renaissance macro.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
We continue commercial free for through a good part of
this hour, I should say, lots of economic data coming
up next week.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
David Girl, one more question for mister Dutta. Neili.
Speaker 5 (07:44):
I listened to Mary Daily yesterday on surveillances. I know
you likely did as well, and she talked about her
modal outlook has been for some time we would begin
to see be able to adjust the rates in the fall.
She hasn't really changed that view any I'm curious, sir,
what what your hearing or pulling from the commentary we've
heard from these FED officials and what sense you have
of their path going forward here?
Speaker 3 (08:07):
Well, David, as you know, I mean, if you put
two economists in a room, you're lucky to get four opinions, right, So,
and I think that's kind of where you're at right
now with the FED. I mean, you have a very
kind of bimodal sort of distribution. I mean there's some
that don't think they could should be cutting at all,
and there's others that think that maybe two cuts are likely,
some thinking they should start sooner than later, you know.
(08:31):
To me, I think what's important is what Daily said
about tariffs, because she basically said that, look like everything
we know about this means it's going to be a
one off. So why are we holding off on easing
if you know, given that that first principle. At the
(08:52):
same time, you know, we know that unemployment is going higher,
and you know, if the FED has been saying for
the longest time that the labor markets aren't a source
of inflationary pressure, I agree with that. But if unemployment
is going higher, maybe the risk now is that the
labor markets are in fact becoming a source of disinflationary pressure.
And I think that's something that they need to heed.
Speaker 4 (09:13):
Interesting. Neil Da, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
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watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 4 (09:32):
I have been.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Waiting for this interview right now in the studio where
this Monica Briguerrera compliance.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Called for you from Morgan Stanley and beg, beg begged.
Don't ask her. You have real world New York City service. Yes,
everyone talks.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Monica Guerra does Corrine Headgar in a Boston Globe today
as a blistering essay, I'm the gentleman who just won
democratic primary.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
Here.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Can you fathom where we will be if mister mumcdoney
is elected mayor in November.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
Where will people like you in the machinery of city
Hall be in February or March of next year? Any idea?
Speaker 6 (10:17):
Well, I just want to clarify I'm no longer working
for city Hall. R Morgan Stanley's opinion, you know. But
one of the things that I think was interesting about
this race is that it seemed that the sort of
democratic socialist label didn't really matter, right, that there is
a desire to have New York City be more affordable.
(10:37):
That's what I saw people running towards. Now what does
it mean long term? One of the biggest questions that
we're thinking about from a markets perspective is what happens
with free bussing. How do you get there?
Speaker 7 (10:46):
Right?
Speaker 6 (10:46):
And that's a big and that's a big question because
if we know the MTA right is both a city
and state run entity, and there's a lot of debt,
there is a lot of fiscal pressure and how are
they going to get there? So for me, my question
is what does the bonding situation look like long term
and what does that mean for credit spreads?
Speaker 4 (11:04):
So there's adult talk, folks.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Here's what we're to do when David, when she gets
a day off from Morgan Stanley, she can come in
with her flip flops and we'll talk to her about
You said, why did you begin an adult interview?
Speaker 5 (11:17):
David GERA, I'd love to talk a bit about trade,
first of all, and we had this interview yesterday. Howard
Lutnik was on with Kaylee Lines and Joe Matthew and
what he allowed during the course of that interview was
that the US and China had signed an agreement we
can call it a deal framework of a deal. What
have you seeming to codify what was discussed and agreed
upon in Geneva and then in London after that? Where
(11:38):
does that get us? As we kind of push headlong,
were less than two weeks away from July the ninth,
which is when this posit the President put in place
on these reciprocal tariffs ends and I should say China's
exempt from all of that. Where are we now? And
as we see the market move on that news from
Commerce Secretary Lutnik, what does it tell you about progress
and process and where things are heading.
Speaker 6 (11:58):
I think it tells me that Marcus been essentially waiting
for any news, right so anything to hang their hat on,
any piece of certainty. And so if we're thinking about
this framework, the only I think some of the details
we know have to do with rare earth minerals concessions, right,
there's very very light information on what's in there. The
interesting thing about this is that even though we have
(12:19):
sort of a black box on all of the other negotiations,
they have said that they're willing to kick the can
on the ten percent. So we know that there is
essentially a set baseline going forward and that the rest
is just right this negotiating piece. We think that ultimately
you're going to land lower closer to ten percent than
say thirty forty percent in some instances, depending on the country.
(12:41):
For us, this means positive market response because you're not
getting the worst case scenario.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Right.
Speaker 6 (12:46):
Markets have essentially adjusted and priced in this activity. But
it also means for us as investors, right, is that
we know which industries, which sectors are going to be
the most impacted, and where we have status quo.
Speaker 5 (12:58):
I was at the seven summit, and so I watched
as the President left, and there were all these disappointed
delegations who had blown great distances, spending a lot of
time on airplanes with the hope that they could get
some time with President Trump and his team to talk
through these trade deals. As you listen to Secretary, let
me talk about how we're close to these ten deals,
ten major trading partners signing deals. We had Scott Bessent
(13:19):
on Fox Business this morning talking about all of this
getting wrapped up by Labor Day. How much has all
of the activity of these last few weeks. So that's
the G seven, that's the NATO summit. Of course, all
that's been happening in the Middle East set back this timetable.
How much realism is baked into the fact that we
could get some deals here sign soon.
Speaker 6 (13:36):
I think that it is real that you can get
some deals signed soon, especially by August. The fact that
they've pushed out that that deadline, and I think they'll
continue to do so.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
I don't think we're.
Speaker 6 (13:44):
Really beholden to any specific timeframe other than that if
we're looking at the tax bills, so I'm going to
shift Turkey to OBBB, you know, the one big beautiful Well,
if you're looking at the fiscal hawks and getting them
to the table, there has to be some sort of assurance,
right that they can offset some of the debt and deficit.
And so while we may not know what those specific
(14:07):
parameters are, we do have a baseline expectation from the
CBO of what types of revenue could be raised an
event of heightened tariffs.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
It's Friday, Might Brain. You're killing me, David.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
All this stuff is way too nerdfest Monica. Are you
concerned about our debt and deficit? Or do we just
you know, the proverbial little g we just continue to
grow our way out of this mess.
Speaker 6 (14:31):
The idea from this administration is yes, they will. They
want to grow their way out of this.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
I know that now every administration since Zachary Taylor and
Tyler Taylor.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
I remember John.
Speaker 5 (14:45):
Tyler Thomas, Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
Help me or right now, we're going to grow our
way forward extended protection.
Speaker 6 (14:54):
So let me just put it this way. I'm not
a modern monetary theorist. I don't prescribe to the the
idea that that doesn't matter.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
Now.
Speaker 6 (15:02):
What I do want to highlight is that you have
to have growth at levels that outpace the pace of
interest expense, right, And so if they're able to get
that balance correct, right, if you get the GDP to
interest expanse balance correct, then essentially you can keep going
for quite a while right on this productivity promise of
the United States. So we don't actually see that cracking yet,
(15:23):
but it is still a problem.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Medica, Greg got twenty seconds free bussing. Come on, we
can do this over a cup of sanc. It's not
that on a bus. Yeah, No, I haven't been on
a buses.
Speaker 6 (15:34):
Pro Buses are great free bussing.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
The rich pay for it, but they know it's a
dedicated text. They know every dollar of that tax is
going to buses.
Speaker 4 (15:46):
It's a layup.
Speaker 6 (15:49):
This is the thing. There's a lot of transportation holicies
that seem like layups, you know, when you're thinking about
congestion pricing from a hocals perspective. That was a layup.
It wasn't. It had tons of hiccups with people that
you know, proposing views. So not everyone is going to
feel that. You know that they're willing to be altruistic
and you know, support free bussing.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
We got to go. This is br Please come back
like Monday, Monica.
Speaker 5 (16:12):
Your face the roseve Island tram Right, I got a problem.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
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Speaker 2 (16:33):
We're an international brief and we're so honored to have
her in studio where us. She was just a workhorse
through COVID free of beamis with US chief economist Ts Lombard,
always and forever of London. When you say to an
American you have to focus on the Pacific RIM. Let's
start with a why for you, you know, Trump trade
(16:54):
tariffs and all that. Why should we pay attention to
the Pacific RIM in the second half of this year. Yeah.
Speaker 7 (17:00):
I think that nexus between the US and China is
one of the things that's really changing and shifting in
terms of the axis of the global economy. When we
think about the underlying drivers of some of the big
shifts that we see in the thing that I hyper
fixate on, which is bond equity correlations, the underlying driver
(17:23):
is the political economy inequality of both.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
I saw another jump condition in Taiwan dollar today, way
outside two standard deviations take currency dynamics week dollar over
to some of these almost jump conditions in specific room
strength over to equity bond correlation.
Speaker 7 (17:42):
Okay, so I think, all right, let's do this. I
think what's happening here is is in the currencies outside
of of the M and B within China. Like, I
just don't know why the administration wouldn't consider the currency
as part of trade deals when when you're considering China
it's a slightly more I guess aggressive proposition.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
But you know what.
Speaker 7 (18:06):
The Taiwan has had this current account surplus for years
and years and years. It's a massive percentage of GDP.
Why would that not be a part Why would the
currency not be a part of the of the deal.
And I think sort of what's changing here here I
go to the bond equity correlation, is that we're we're
shifting away from the hyperglobalization that has sustained those current
(18:28):
account surpluses and into a world where the policy reaction
to the hollowing out of Detroit and the rise of inequality,
the policy reaction is negative supply shocks. Negative supply shocks
push inflation into the system, destroy demand, and turn the
bond equity correlation positive because the investors need more to
compensate them for the deterioration of the hedging quality of
(18:50):
the of the bond. And so the likelihood of those
negative supply shocks is just higher now than it was previously,
not least because we're moving from a unipolar global political
order to a multipolar global political order, which also has
a lot of consequences in that specific rim area. So
this increase in instances of negative supply shots to me,
(19:11):
and this is where I have to be very careful
about sort of my truth on a three year time
horizon versus what actually gets priced at this moment in time.
To me, that means greater likelihood of negative supply shots.
But just as in the eighties it took quite a
long time for people to price out term premium, it's
going to take quite a long time.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
To take longer than the modern media.
Speaker 5 (19:31):
Thanks David, I'd love to stick with that, which is
your overarching thesis that move away from a kind of
unique polar world to an artipolar one. And so when
you look at the weakening in the dollar that we've seen,
is it part and parcel of that. Do you see
that as kind of emblematic of maybe more near term
or shorter term phenomena or is that part of this
kind of broader thesis that you have.
Speaker 7 (19:48):
I think it's definitely part of this broader, broader thesis
that the underlying sort of driver of the dollar standard
and the strength of the dollar is the fact that
the US economy is just more dynamic. It's able to
sustain higher private consumption led growth without creating inflation, and
(20:10):
so risk adjusted returns in the US have just been
higher over that period of time. But I think what's
what's changing now. The US is going to remain exceptional.
It's just not going to be as exceptional as it
was in the twenty ten exceptionality exactly right. So I think,
you know, the underlying causes of the strength of the
dollar is not so much on the trade account like
(20:32):
that seems to me something that's sort of flapping in
the wind of capital flows. And it's actually capital inflows
predominantly actually in the last decade from Europe rather than
the Pacific rim that have have helped to cause this
this kind of strength of the dollar and the outperformance
of US assets to the extent that they contribute there
there as well. And so that's that's also unwinding and
(20:53):
reversing because US risk adjusted returns are coming down relative
to the rest of the world, where US risk adjusted
returns are probably better, and partly thanks to the partly
thanks to the kind of the chaos that is created
by Trumpian policy in Europe, but also thanks to the
rise in inequality and the rise of the AfD ten
(21:13):
percentage points in the German elections and Russian threat.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
Can I ask you about what's transpired over the last
twenty four hours We had the Commerce Secretary on our
ara yesterday evening and he said there's been this deal
that's been inked, which I guess is codifying the agreement
that took place in Geneva, and then was react in London.
Great enthusiasm it scenes in the market because that's an
indication of something. What is the something that you see
that indicating bringing to bear your experience tracking what's going
(21:40):
on in Asia here, it seems to me it's a
very basic thing that's been to agree to, which is
a continuation of talks and I guess more openness to
some bassets of trade. What exactly has been inked here
and why is that so significant if at all?
Speaker 7 (21:52):
Yeah, I guess the big kind of push point that
could shift in terms of the actual rate of tariffs
that's going to be charge on China is with relation
to the fentanyl side of things, which is a big
part of the thirty percent additional on China. So that
that's maybe where you could get some positive news kind
of coming through. But like with all the trade negotiations,
(22:16):
it's the July ninth is not like the deadline for
this to be done. It's the deadline for talks to
have started, which means again that you just get these
kind of uncertainty shocks coming through.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
And the time we've got left with all of the
Tea Slambard, the heritage of Charles Dumont, what you're doing
for you, Beamish, Where do you think the blended tariff
level will settle down to? It's seventeen ish now I'm guessing,
I'm just making a weekend guess where does that end up?
Speaker 4 (22:43):
Does it come back down near two three?
Speaker 2 (22:46):
No?
Speaker 7 (22:46):
I think there's a there's Tariffs have a multiple functions
in the toolbox. One is negotiations, That's what we saw
in the first half. Now we're kind of coming through
the black process of negotiations. Another is like actual balancing
of the US economy, whether you believe that's going to
happen or not. But the one with the baseline for
tariffs that persists is a fiscal reason and a reorientation
(23:09):
of fiscal policy. And I don't think it's an I
don't think it is a coincidence that tax cuts are
about zero point eight percent of GDP and spending cuts
offset that by zero point two percent, and then it
just so happens that tariff revenues as they as they
stand would probably be about zero point six percent. And
so that helps you to square the circle in Congress
(23:32):
between the fiscal hawks and the and the people that
are up for reelection in the in the primary. So
I think that that ten percent level is actually quite stafy.
Speaker 4 (23:42):
I got twenty seconds. What does labor do in the
United Kingdom?
Speaker 2 (23:46):
I read the British newspapers and it's as crazy as
I've ever seen. It'll be crazy. I don't understand it.
Speaker 7 (23:53):
Okay. In the twenty seconds, they probably they probably replicate
what Gordon Brown does, which is tell them bond vigilant
is what they want to hear, and then spend like
a troop.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Okay, does reform is Nigel Ferrari is going to be
the next Prime Minister?
Speaker 4 (24:07):
Twelve seconds?
Speaker 7 (24:09):
I hope not. If Reeves manages to sort of shift
past this kind of myopic focus on the fiscal rules,
then maybe the economy can turn around.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Thank you so much, Frank. Does that cover the United Kingdom?
Speaker 2 (24:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (24:24):
It's for thirty seconds, free beamers, Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android Otto.
With the Bloomberg Business app, you can also watch us
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terminal joining us.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
James Steele of HSBC, it's one of the piece platinum
or palladium. I think I saw a record high like
yesterday or the day before.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
Your world's on fire, isn't it? I mean even so
over got it going?
Speaker 8 (25:01):
Yes, it certainly is.
Speaker 4 (25:02):
Come.
Speaker 8 (25:03):
The precious metals markets have all been very active this year, well,
for very different reasons. The gold obviously, you know, and
all the time I've been watching gold and analyzing it,
the same twelve or fifteen factors drive it year after year.
The trick in analyzing it and trying to get an
(25:24):
idea where the price might go is to which of
those factors is dominant and which is recessive right now?
And for this year it's been geopolitics and last year
as well, and it's been quite a long time since
that was in the driver's.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Seat in central banks are still buying at the margin.
Speaker 8 (25:41):
Oh absolutely, that's the second issue too. I mean I
have no doubt that we would not be up here
if it went for a central bank buying.
Speaker 4 (25:49):
Now I'm going to get this thing because I think
it's so important.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
If I look at tell you'red Colorado and the Liberty
Bell Mine, which is gold and silver, and it's like,
you know, the unsinkable Miley Brown is like eighteen nine,
they shut.
Speaker 4 (26:01):
It down in nineteen twenty one.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
Is there still gold or silver out there? When Gura
goes out to Teller Ride.
Speaker 8 (26:07):
Well, I don't know about that specific mine. But there's
one of the problems with gold. You know they talk
about peak oil. Well, I can tell you there's no
such thing as peak oil, but there is peak gold. Interesting,
we've been looking for gold for five thousand years. We've
only been looking for oil for one hundred and fifty
odd years. And the ore grade is dropping, it's getting
(26:28):
more difficult. We haven't had a mega discovery since nineteen nine.
That's twenty million ounces or more since nineteen ninety seven.
So there's no shortage of gold, and I don't mean
to give the impression that there is. And mine supply
is going up because it's very profitable to produce gold
right now. But we do see later in the decade,
we see the gold production from the mining side beginning
(26:52):
to plateau. And top out.
Speaker 5 (26:54):
Let me go back to the central bank issue. And
I keep thinking about this Leslie Hook piece in the
Financial Times from a few weeks back, and the thrust
of that was you have central banks really scaling up
their purchases of gold all the while the forecast seems
to be they're going to be paring down how many
dollars they have on hand. What does that phenomenon tell
you or say just about the state of the world today.
Speaker 8 (27:16):
Well, that brings in the d dollarization argument, and which
we think is gradual. We're not in the dollar, the
dollar will cease to be the world reserve currency count
at all for many reasons. According to our effects research team,
the dollar will remain the world reserve currency. But perhaps
(27:37):
every central bank doesn't need quite as many dollars as
it has. And if it decides on a portfolio basis
to readjust things, but is reluctant to go into another
specific currency, which many of them appear to be, then
gold is a marvelous way of slightly dewaighting your dollar
holdings without committing yourself to something like the euro, the yen,
(27:58):
or another fixed income instrument that you might not want
to own. So it's it's a perfect sweet spot. And
when you see geopolitical risks, I mean when you look
at the central banks that are buying, they tend to
be near neighbors that they may or may not have
issues with. They don't tend to keep the gold in
(28:21):
that country, see, they tend to come elsewhere.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
James Steele with us on your community crascination near June thirty.
Here we reset for the second half of twenty twenty five,
even looking into twenty twenty six, which I find hard
to believe. Futures up twelve up twenty two earlier, give
back a little bit, but we'll see how the market
opens here in twenty three minutes of sixteen point at two.
Speaker 4 (28:43):
Four James Steele. Are central banks supposed to own gold?
I mean they have a.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Societal policy to manage inflation and the mandates differ or
the jobs market. Everyone new Zealand's different than America.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
I get that. But where does it say they're supposed
to have Fort Knox.
Speaker 8 (29:01):
Well, they've always had gold. Gold was the original some
when central banks originated, going back to the Bank of France,
the Battle the America, they were all founded on their
gold reserves and in fact, it's only been relative.
Speaker 4 (29:16):
You you, you, you could.
Speaker 8 (29:16):
Almost ask that the currency as we know it now
is relatively new compared to their to their gold holdings.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
Are their gold holdings now equivalent to what they held
in the nineteen thirties.
Speaker 8 (29:28):
Well, as far as the actual tonnage goes, they're they're, they're, they're,
they're they're greater, but as a percentage of their reserves
much smaller, because we've gotten a lot more currency since
since since then.
Speaker 5 (29:44):
You bring up to your politics, and you know, I
take that to mean what's been happening in the Middle East,
all of the upheaval that we've seen, the fighting and upheaval.
How much does the current trade picture, the tariff's picture,
affect the appetite for goldens to what we're seeing in
the market more broadly.
Speaker 8 (30:00):
Well, it's been a positive for the gold market for
many reasons. It feeds into the geopolitical argument as well.
Tariffs are arguably disruptive to capital markets, credit spreads, They
can ultimately have an effect on equities. All of these
things increase on certainty, and that's good for gold.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
You know.
Speaker 8 (30:23):
It's not so much that gold reacts to good economic
policy or about economic policy, although obviously it does, but
it really reacts to his uncertainty. And if you look
at the economic policy on uncertainty index, and we've done
a lot of statistical work on this, the correlation's quite
quite good.
Speaker 4 (30:40):
Where is gold now in the luxury space?
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I mean, you know, we meant in a win tour
is finally retiring from Vogue US after a stellar, magical
adjustment in jewelry and fashion and all that.
Speaker 4 (30:54):
Is in booming now.
Speaker 8 (30:57):
Well, at the high end, it's always good because of
the income that's allowed to support it, but jewelry demand
itself is down double digit. The you don't forget seventy
percent of a physical fifty percent of all physical gold
demand is in jewelry and silly, yes, yes, half of it.
(31:19):
And I'm not talking about you know, hedge funds and
portfolio managers. I'm trying the price millions. It does. But
the difference is that on the institution, on the investment level,
relatively few players move in and out, and they move
a lot of buoyant so they can appear to dictate
the price on a daily level, whereas millions of people
buy and sell gold, and very fractional small amounts every
(31:41):
day around the world, and it can take many months
for that to feed in.
Speaker 2 (31:45):
David, let's go to our expert on this, joining US
Weekend Gold expert Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 4 (31:52):
Can you buy gold at costco?
Speaker 9 (31:53):
You can buy the bars and you can buy it
like jewelry and stuff too.
Speaker 4 (31:57):
Okay, David, One more for James Steel.
Speaker 5 (31:59):
Talk at the beginning, mixing up palladium and platinum. What's
another metal that we should be paying attention to here
aside from gold to where have you seen an interesting
story merging so far?
Speaker 8 (32:09):
It's sorry, it didn't mean to cut you off there.
So far it's been platinum, and part of that is
the jewelry story, a platinum jewelry, but gold jewelry has
gotten very expensive, very expensive indeed, and in price sensitive economies,
notably China, there's been there is an ongoing switch now
back to platinum. And when you compare the size of
(32:32):
the markets, I mean they're much smaller. Platinum is much
smaller than gold, and the supply of it is rather tight.
Most of it comes from South Africa, but also Zimbabwe
and Russia, and none of them are in a particularly
good state to increase output. So the stocks are much
lower and the sensitivity to prices higher.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Thank you for this brief. James Steele with us, so
they just be seen. Just love having your moon.
Speaker 1 (32:59):
This is the Bloomber Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android
Atto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Let's get you at the newspapers, Lisa Matteo before she
jets to Venice, what are you doing?
Speaker 6 (33:20):
All right?
Speaker 9 (33:21):
So we've heard about the Trump administration's battle with Harvard, right, David,
You've reported on a number of times now. The New
York Times is saying the Trump administration putting the pressure
on the president of the University of Virginia to step down.
They're currently investigating the school for the DEI efforts. The
DOJ is saying that they want that president to step down,
and The New York Times is saying that's what's making
(33:42):
this different than all the other battles that they've done,
because this is the first time the administration has pushed
a university to remove its leader. He's been the president
there since twenty eighteen, so this is a big move
for that. With all the talks we're having courts.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I mean, forget about whatever the name of the school is.
Doesn't judiciary just show up at some point.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
Well, we've seen that in the case of Harvard over
these last few weeks, sort of allowing Harvard to continue
to allow international students and for example. But I think
that's so fascinating about this story by Michael Schmid of
The Times, is just the power that's being exercised on
this public state university. As you say, at least bring
up the fact that they're trying to get this this
leader out who'd been at Harvard. By the way, he'd
been the i think the dean of the education school
(34:23):
at Harvard before this. So we'll see where this goes.
But sort of you see rationing up here, the administration's
kind of device that's putting on these.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
Yeah, a wonderful conversation with an executive of a college
the other day, it doesn't matter where they are, and
we both agreed. It's a world turned upside down for
all sorts of reasons. Post COVID there's a fewer kids now,
you know, just the normal grinding of education is tough
right now.
Speaker 5 (34:48):
Yeah, and everyone's sort of worried about where all this is.
Speaker 4 (34:51):
This has headed. Don't have to see Lisa next please.
Speaker 9 (34:53):
Okay, I'm about to do for a Costco run and
I have to prepare the budget because usually drop about
five hundred dollars.
Speaker 5 (34:58):
Every time you go.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
She's got full freezers.
Speaker 5 (35:01):
I see, Yeah, she.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
Turns your freezers on in the garage yeast. But here's
why I thought.
Speaker 9 (35:11):
That's why I thought this story was interesting. Okay, it's
on the terminal sources telling Blue Werk that Target is
looking into the sale of more products in larger quantity.
So they want to start doing the bulk items on
their website because I say, it's going to provide greater
value like coffee and snacks and things like that, because
they want to compete with Costco but also Walmart. But
(35:33):
so you can get the bulk without the you're staring
at home.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
And regret that you bought paper plates for two thoy
thirty When you're by ball, do you stare at it
and go that was dumb? No.
Speaker 9 (35:46):
The only time I do is produce when it goes
bad and I get really mad.
Speaker 5 (35:50):
Costco have produce, they do, and they have great produce.
Speaker 9 (35:52):
So yes, that's the only time I get mad.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
Old foods is if you can get avocados they have
them star Yeah, if they have them, Yes, and aren't
riper overdone?
Speaker 4 (36:02):
Costco's killing it. I mean, I mean on the shareholder returned,
it's amazing.
Speaker 9 (36:08):
I'm telling you, I was onto something a long time ago.
Speaker 5 (36:11):
Next, you got your tassel from the Gritty Palace. She's
going to get the gold membership card from Costco.
Speaker 4 (36:18):
Sixteen dollars at night. Next.
Speaker 9 (36:20):
All right, so we go from Target to the elite
world of private jets. Okay, so celebrities, business owners love them.
But you've always heard about the environmental impact, remember the
stories with the Super Bowl and all that. Okay, so
Washington Post, yes, Davos too. They pointed to this report
and highlights that globally, private jets admitted up to nineteen
and a half million metric tons of greenhouse gases in
(36:42):
twenty twenty three. And here's what's interesting. That year private
jets they polluted more than the total of all commercial
flights that were departing from London's Heathrow Airport. So that
is huge and the US is ranking high.
Speaker 4 (36:55):
Yeah, as far as.
Speaker 5 (36:56):
This here, that's an exercise more discretion in terms of
your use of the US.
Speaker 4 (37:01):
You don't have it.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
I went back and forth with Bramo last night, and
you know, we're looking at the Dessau but it's not
the one Taylor Swift has.
Speaker 4 (37:07):
It's a cheaper one. Yeah, and we're staying with Golf.
Speaker 5 (37:10):
Street We've always which I think is smart.
Speaker 4 (37:12):
Yeah, yeah, we do. And we didn't. We didn't price up.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
I said to Micah said, I'm just not getting the
G six and the and the answer is the engine
pollution is a big deal.
Speaker 5 (37:21):
It is.
Speaker 9 (37:21):
It is that to the wedding defense, you can't.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
But Sweetey took the Sikorski.
Speaker 5 (37:28):
He had to get out there fast and Janeec couldn't
get a seat. He had to take the taxi.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Lisa Mateo, the newspapers, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune in, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(37:56):
and always on the Bloomberg Terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
We are advantaged with Neil Dot of Renaissance Macro. Neil,
you were my economist of the Year with resilient optimism
in the depths of COVID. You've turned more cautious When
I see a stock market go to record highs, how
can I be cautious?
Speaker 3 (00:43):
No, it's a great point. I mean, and clearly, Tom,
the pain trade is stocks go higher. I mean, you
have the market at basically new highs, and you know
it looks like bear's out number of bulls, so that's,
you know, I mean, pretty good sign the pain trade
is higher.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
You know.
Speaker 4 (01:02):
Look, I mean.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
You know the I think you know, the stock market
is a very useful discounting mechanism, so it's always important
to keep an eye on it, especially when you have
a cautious economic view like I do. But you know,
it's also worth pointing out that it's not a perfect
discounting mechanism. Right, So when I think about why stocks
have gone up, you know, it's earnings rates and risk
premium and earnings estimates keep going higher. Has been coming down.
(01:28):
You know, you're getting soothing words on trade and interest
rates have been coming down as the market's bet. You know,
I guess more in the direction of our FED view.
So that's what's powering the stock market higher, which kind
of raises the stakes for what earnings looks like going forward.
I mean, obviously, economic data generally over the last number
of weeks on net has been negative, and you know,
(01:52):
you'd expect, you know, some of that to bleed into.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
The way, doesn't David Dona just reised Jeff de Graf's research. Yeah,
he doesn't know anything about this stock, right, he just
listens to the graph.
Speaker 5 (02:03):
David gir I love that you call your it was
your formerly your economists of the year. Do you get
a trophy for that? Is there like a no, he
gets a beverage of beverage of his choice at the
the time of his choosing. You let me stick with
the soothingness that you talked about in terms of the
rhetoric that we've heard from the FED on and what
we've heard from policymakers on tariffs as well. How much
of a disconnect is there as you see it, between
what we're hearing from from them and as you see
(02:24):
the state of the economy today.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Well, I mean, my big gripe is really the state
of the economy as it is not so much what
tariffs are doing to the economy, because, in my opinion,
I mean, before tariffs even happened, I mean, we were
talking about a frozen housing market, a frozen labor market,
a capex cycle that was really just about tech not
much else. And uh, you know, I mean, tariffs make
(02:51):
that bad situation worse. But you know, look, I mean, David,
I mean for the US economy, what I'm really focused
on right now is the ongoing deterioration in labor markets.
We have continuing claims rising to fresh highs week after
a week. That means that unemployment is probably going up,
and housing continues to get worse, particularly new family housing.
(03:16):
Right so, that to me is an important thing to consider.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
I got a year over your PCE coming up here
in one minute quickly Neil dot A thirty seconds two
point one percent to a surveyed two point three percent.
Is that on the edge of stagflation inflation?
Speaker 3 (03:32):
No, I mean this would be the third consecutive month
where core inflation is running point one, I mean stagflation.
We have more stag than we have flation right now.
So yeah, deflation, theflation part is very much in the
range of a forecast. And I think it's important for
people to explain why the tariff induced inflation likely is
(03:56):
anything more than a one off.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Nil douta with Renaissance macro nailing the stag of stagflation.
I see real personal spending with a negative statistic Neil,
what does that signal for future GDP?
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Well, it's going to mean that you're going to see
some downward revisions to estimates of GDP. And remember that
the estimates weren't that strong to begin with. You know,
I'm a little bit surprised that the consensus missed the
real consumption number because we did see unit auto sales
come down quite meaningfully over the month, and so you know, look,
(04:34):
I mean, if you look at this data, what it
shows is real consumption came in a bit weaker than expected,
and core inflation came in a bit firmer than expected.
So without having you know, dialed into all the details.
It just tells you that consumers are resistant to higher prices, right,
and that's because ultimately consumer you know, inflation, in my opinion,
(04:56):
really boils down to the household budget constraint. You know
right now, you know if you look at real income
NETA transfers, that's up only one and a half percent
against last year, and you know that kind of sets
the table for what what consumer spending will more or
(05:18):
less do. And you know you're talking about, I think,
at a minimum of a low potential growth.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Environment, David Gerr. I see the line item in PC.
There's like two hundred line items and there's one for
summer camp. Would you care to comment on that.
Speaker 5 (05:32):
I'll strained all my resources now that I have two
of them going. But no, that's that's an extreme one.
Let me go back to the housing market, which you
mentioned just a moment ago as one of the two
things that you're you're kind of focusing on and suggesting
counseling us to focus on here as well. How big
a drag is that likely to be on the economy.
More broadly, you're looking here at sort of new home
starts and projecting a lot of nuance into the way
that we should be thinking about them.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Well, sure, I mean, remember this is on the first
time during this cycle where we've seen residential investment go down.
The first time was back in twenty two when the
FED was gearing up massive you know, rate hiking campaigns,
so they basically crushed home sales. But what was important
about that period was you were still in a situation
where you know, home units under construction were rising. Right now,
(06:18):
you're in a situation where housing starts are running, you know,
below completions, which basically means that units under construction will
continue to come down. If you look also at the
slack in the new housing market, you have you know,
essentially cycle highs and unsold new housing inventory. So that
(06:41):
kind of begs the question as to why builders are
going to break ground on new homes to start with,
because it makes much more sense at this point for
them to kind of sell out of the homes they've
already made as opposed to breaking ground on new homes.
So that means units under construction will keep falling, and that,
you know, sort of begs the question as to what's
going to happen with construcuction employment, which has been you know,
(07:02):
relatively uh, you know, hanging in there, you know, over
the last number of years or so. And then you
talk about, you know, home prices are are are declining, uh,
you know nationally, particularly the south and the West, which
is where the builders have been making the home. So
(07:22):
I do think that construction activity and residential is going
to be coming down, and I think that's going to
have effects on unemployment over the over the coming months.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Neil dudda with us is the renaissance macro.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
We continue commercial free for through a good part of
this hour, I should say, lots of economic data coming
up next week.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
David Girl, one more question for mister Dutta. Neili.
Speaker 5 (07:44):
I listened to Mary Daily yesterday on surveillances. I know
you likely did as well, and she talked about her
modal outlook has been for some time we would begin
to see be able to adjust the rates in the fall.
She hasn't really changed that view any I'm curious, sir,
what what your hearing or pulling from the commentary we've
heard from these FED officials and what sense you have
of their path going forward here?
Speaker 3 (08:07):
Well, David, as you know, I mean, if you put
two economists in a room, you're lucky to get four opinions, right, So,
and I think that's kind of where you're at right
now with the FED. I mean, you have a very
kind of bimodal sort of distribution. I mean there's some
that don't think they could should be cutting at all,
and there's others that think that maybe two cuts are likely,
some thinking they should start sooner than later, you know.
(08:31):
To me, I think what's important is what Daily said
about tariffs, because she basically said that, look like everything
we know about this means it's going to be a
one off. So why are we holding off on easing
if you know, given that that first principle. At the
(08:52):
same time, you know, we know that unemployment is going higher,
and you know, if the FED has been saying for
the longest time that the labor markets aren't a source
of inflationary pressure, I agree with that. But if unemployment
is going higher, maybe the risk now is that the
labor markets are in fact becoming a source of disinflationary pressure.
And I think that's something that they need to heed.
Speaker 4 (09:13):
Interesting. Neil Da, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 4 (09:32):
I have been.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Waiting for this interview right now in the studio where
this Monica Briguerrera compliance.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Called for you from Morgan Stanley and beg, beg begged.
Don't ask her. You have real world New York City service. Yes,
everyone talks.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Monica Guerra does Corrine Headgar in a Boston Globe today
as a blistering essay, I'm the gentleman who just won
democratic primary.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
Here.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Can you fathom where we will be if mister mumcdoney
is elected mayor in November.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
Where will people like you in the machinery of city
Hall be in February or March of next year? Any idea?
Speaker 6 (10:17):
Well, I just want to clarify I'm no longer working
for city Hall. R Morgan Stanley's opinion, you know. But
one of the things that I think was interesting about
this race is that it seemed that the sort of
democratic socialist label didn't really matter, right, that there is
a desire to have New York City be more affordable.
(10:37):
That's what I saw people running towards. Now what does
it mean long term? One of the biggest questions that
we're thinking about from a markets perspective is what happens
with free bussing. How do you get there?
Speaker 7 (10:46):
Right?
Speaker 6 (10:46):
And that's a big and that's a big question because
if we know the MTA right is both a city
and state run entity, and there's a lot of debt,
there is a lot of fiscal pressure and how are
they going to get there? So for me, my question
is what does the bonding situation look like long term
and what does that mean for credit spreads?
Speaker 4 (11:04):
So there's adult talk, folks.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Here's what we're to do when David, when she gets
a day off from Morgan Stanley, she can come in
with her flip flops and we'll talk to her about
You said, why did you begin an adult interview?
Speaker 5 (11:17):
David GERA, I'd love to talk a bit about trade,
first of all, and we had this interview yesterday. Howard
Lutnik was on with Kaylee Lines and Joe Matthew and
what he allowed during the course of that interview was
that the US and China had signed an agreement we
can call it a deal framework of a deal. What
have you seeming to codify what was discussed and agreed
upon in Geneva and then in London after that? Where
(11:38):
does that get us? As we kind of push headlong,
were less than two weeks away from July the ninth,
which is when this posit the President put in place
on these reciprocal tariffs ends and I should say China's
exempt from all of that. Where are we now? And
as we see the market move on that news from
Commerce Secretary Lutnik, what does it tell you about progress
and process and where things are heading.
Speaker 6 (11:58):
I think it tells me that Marcus been essentially waiting
for any news, right so anything to hang their hat on,
any piece of certainty. And so if we're thinking about
this framework, the only I think some of the details
we know have to do with rare earth minerals concessions, right,
there's very very light information on what's in there. The
interesting thing about this is that even though we have
(12:19):
sort of a black box on all of the other negotiations,
they have said that they're willing to kick the can
on the ten percent. So we know that there is
essentially a set baseline going forward and that the rest
is just right this negotiating piece. We think that ultimately
you're going to land lower closer to ten percent than
say thirty forty percent in some instances, depending on the country.
(12:41):
For us, this means positive market response because you're not
getting the worst case scenario.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Right.
Speaker 6 (12:46):
Markets have essentially adjusted and priced in this activity. But
it also means for us as investors, right, is that
we know which industries, which sectors are going to be
the most impacted, and where we have status quo.
Speaker 5 (12:58):
I was at the seven summit, and so I watched
as the President left, and there were all these disappointed
delegations who had blown great distances, spending a lot of
time on airplanes with the hope that they could get
some time with President Trump and his team to talk
through these trade deals. As you listen to Secretary, let
me talk about how we're close to these ten deals,
ten major trading partners signing deals. We had Scott Bessent
(13:19):
on Fox Business this morning talking about all of this
getting wrapped up by Labor Day. How much has all
of the activity of these last few weeks. So that's
the G seven, that's the NATO summit. Of course, all
that's been happening in the Middle East set back this timetable.
How much realism is baked into the fact that we
could get some deals here sign soon.
Speaker 6 (13:36):
I think that it is real that you can get
some deals signed soon, especially by August. The fact that
they've pushed out that that deadline, and I think they'll
continue to do so.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
I don't think we're.
Speaker 6 (13:44):
Really beholden to any specific timeframe other than that if
we're looking at the tax bills, so I'm going to
shift Turkey to OBBB, you know, the one big beautiful Well,
if you're looking at the fiscal hawks and getting them
to the table, there has to be some sort of assurance,
right that they can offset some of the debt and deficit.
And so while we may not know what those specific
(14:07):
parameters are, we do have a baseline expectation from the
CBO of what types of revenue could be raised an
event of heightened tariffs.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
It's Friday, Might Brain. You're killing me, David.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
All this stuff is way too nerdfest Monica. Are you
concerned about our debt and deficit? Or do we just
you know, the proverbial little g we just continue to
grow our way out of this mess.
Speaker 6 (14:31):
The idea from this administration is yes, they will. They
want to grow their way out of this.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
I know that now every administration since Zachary Taylor and
Tyler Taylor.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
I remember John.
Speaker 5 (14:45):
Tyler Thomas, Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
Help me or right now, we're going to grow our
way forward extended protection.
Speaker 6 (14:54):
So let me just put it this way. I'm not
a modern monetary theorist. I don't prescribe to the the
idea that that doesn't matter.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
Now.
Speaker 6 (15:02):
What I do want to highlight is that you have
to have growth at levels that outpace the pace of
interest expense, right, And so if they're able to get
that balance correct, right, if you get the GDP to
interest expanse balance correct, then essentially you can keep going
for quite a while right on this productivity promise of
the United States. So we don't actually see that cracking yet,
(15:23):
but it is still a problem.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Medica, Greg got twenty seconds free bussing. Come on, we
can do this over a cup of sanc. It's not
that on a bus. Yeah, No, I haven't been on
a buses.
Speaker 6 (15:34):
Pro Buses are great free bussing.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
The rich pay for it, but they know it's a
dedicated text. They know every dollar of that tax is
going to buses.
Speaker 4 (15:46):
It's a layup.
Speaker 6 (15:49):
This is the thing. There's a lot of transportation holicies
that seem like layups, you know, when you're thinking about
congestion pricing from a hocals perspective. That was a layup.
It wasn't. It had tons of hiccups with people that
you know, proposing views. So not everyone is going to
feel that. You know that they're willing to be altruistic
and you know, support free bussing.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
We got to go. This is br Please come back
like Monday, Monica.
Speaker 5 (16:12):
Your face the roseve Island tram Right, I got a problem.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just
say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty Huch.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
We're an international brief and we're so honored to have
her in studio where us. She was just a workhorse
through COVID free of beamis with US chief economist Ts Lombard,
always and forever of London. When you say to an
American you have to focus on the Pacific RIM. Let's
start with a why for you, you know, Trump trade
(16:54):
tariffs and all that. Why should we pay attention to
the Pacific RIM in the second half of this year. Yeah.
Speaker 7 (17:00):
I think that nexus between the US and China is
one of the things that's really changing and shifting in
terms of the axis of the global economy. When we
think about the underlying drivers of some of the big
shifts that we see in the thing that I hyper
fixate on, which is bond equity correlations, the underlying driver
(17:23):
is the political economy inequality of both.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
I saw another jump condition in Taiwan dollar today, way
outside two standard deviations take currency dynamics week dollar over
to some of these almost jump conditions in specific room
strength over to equity bond correlation.
Speaker 7 (17:42):
Okay, so I think, all right, let's do this. I
think what's happening here is is in the currencies outside
of of the M and B within China. Like, I
just don't know why the administration wouldn't consider the currency
as part of trade deals when when you're considering China
it's a slightly more I guess aggressive proposition.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
But you know what.
Speaker 7 (18:06):
The Taiwan has had this current account surplus for years
and years and years. It's a massive percentage of GDP.
Why would that not be a part Why would the
currency not be a part of the of the deal.
And I think sort of what's changing here here I
go to the bond equity correlation, is that we're we're
shifting away from the hyperglobalization that has sustained those current
(18:28):
account surpluses and into a world where the policy reaction
to the hollowing out of Detroit and the rise of inequality,
the policy reaction is negative supply shocks. Negative supply shocks
push inflation into the system, destroy demand, and turn the
bond equity correlation positive because the investors need more to
compensate them for the deterioration of the hedging quality of
(18:50):
the of the bond. And so the likelihood of those
negative supply shocks is just higher now than it was previously,
not least because we're moving from a unipolar global political
order to a multipolar global political order, which also has
a lot of consequences in that specific rim area. So
this increase in instances of negative supply shots to me,
(19:11):
and this is where I have to be very careful
about sort of my truth on a three year time
horizon versus what actually gets priced at this moment in time.
To me, that means greater likelihood of negative supply shots.
But just as in the eighties it took quite a
long time for people to price out term premium, it's
going to take quite a long time.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
To take longer than the modern media.
Speaker 5 (19:31):
Thanks David, I'd love to stick with that, which is
your overarching thesis that move away from a kind of
unique polar world to an artipolar one. And so when
you look at the weakening in the dollar that we've seen,
is it part and parcel of that. Do you see
that as kind of emblematic of maybe more near term
or shorter term phenomena or is that part of this
kind of broader thesis that you have.
Speaker 7 (19:48):
I think it's definitely part of this broader, broader thesis
that the underlying sort of driver of the dollar standard
and the strength of the dollar is the fact that
the US economy is just more dynamic. It's able to
sustain higher private consumption led growth without creating inflation, and
(20:10):
so risk adjusted returns in the US have just been
higher over that period of time. But I think what's
what's changing now. The US is going to remain exceptional.
It's just not going to be as exceptional as it
was in the twenty ten exceptionality exactly right. So I think,
you know, the underlying causes of the strength of the
dollar is not so much on the trade account like
(20:32):
that seems to me something that's sort of flapping in
the wind of capital flows. And it's actually capital inflows
predominantly actually in the last decade from Europe rather than
the Pacific rim that have have helped to cause this
this kind of strength of the dollar and the outperformance
of US assets to the extent that they contribute there
there as well. And so that's that's also unwinding and
(20:53):
reversing because US risk adjusted returns are coming down relative
to the rest of the world, where US risk adjusted
returns are probably better, and partly thanks to the partly
thanks to the kind of the chaos that is created
by Trumpian policy in Europe, but also thanks to the
rise in inequality and the rise of the AfD ten
(21:13):
percentage points in the German elections and Russian threat.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
Can I ask you about what's transpired over the last
twenty four hours We had the Commerce Secretary on our
ara yesterday evening and he said there's been this deal
that's been inked, which I guess is codifying the agreement
that took place in Geneva, and then was react in London.
Great enthusiasm it scenes in the market because that's an
indication of something. What is the something that you see
that indicating bringing to bear your experience tracking what's going
(21:40):
on in Asia here, it seems to me it's a
very basic thing that's been to agree to, which is
a continuation of talks and I guess more openness to
some bassets of trade. What exactly has been inked here
and why is that so significant if at all?
Speaker 7 (21:52):
Yeah, I guess the big kind of push point that
could shift in terms of the actual rate of tariffs
that's going to be charge on China is with relation
to the fentanyl side of things, which is a big
part of the thirty percent additional on China. So that
that's maybe where you could get some positive news kind
of coming through. But like with all the trade negotiations,
(22:16):
it's the July ninth is not like the deadline for
this to be done. It's the deadline for talks to
have started, which means again that you just get these
kind of uncertainty shocks coming through.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
And the time we've got left with all of the
Tea Slambard, the heritage of Charles Dumont, what you're doing
for you, Beamish, Where do you think the blended tariff
level will settle down to? It's seventeen ish now I'm guessing,
I'm just making a weekend guess where does that end up?
Speaker 4 (22:43):
Does it come back down near two three?
Speaker 2 (22:46):
No?
Speaker 7 (22:46):
I think there's a there's Tariffs have a multiple functions
in the toolbox. One is negotiations, That's what we saw
in the first half. Now we're kind of coming through
the black process of negotiations. Another is like actual balancing
of the US economy, whether you believe that's going to
happen or not. But the one with the baseline for
tariffs that persists is a fiscal reason and a reorientation
(23:09):
of fiscal policy. And I don't think it's an I
don't think it is a coincidence that tax cuts are
about zero point eight percent of GDP and spending cuts
offset that by zero point two percent, and then it
just so happens that tariff revenues as they as they
stand would probably be about zero point six percent. And
so that helps you to square the circle in Congress
(23:32):
between the fiscal hawks and the and the people that
are up for reelection in the in the primary. So
I think that that ten percent level is actually quite stafy.
Speaker 4 (23:42):
I got twenty seconds. What does labor do in the
United Kingdom?
Speaker 2 (23:46):
I read the British newspapers and it's as crazy as
I've ever seen. It'll be crazy. I don't understand it.
Speaker 7 (23:53):
Okay. In the twenty seconds, they probably they probably replicate
what Gordon Brown does, which is tell them bond vigilant
is what they want to hear, and then spend like
a troop.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Okay, does reform is Nigel Ferrari is going to be
the next Prime Minister?
Speaker 4 (24:07):
Twelve seconds?
Speaker 7 (24:09):
I hope not. If Reeves manages to sort of shift
past this kind of myopic focus on the fiscal rules,
then maybe the economy can turn around.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Thank you so much, Frank. Does that cover the United Kingdom?
Speaker 2 (24:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (24:24):
It's for thirty seconds, free beamers, Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android Otto.
With the Bloomberg Business app, you can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg
terminal joining us.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
James Steele of HSBC, it's one of the piece platinum
or palladium. I think I saw a record high like
yesterday or the day before.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
Your world's on fire, isn't it? I mean even so
over got it going?
Speaker 8 (25:01):
Yes, it certainly is.
Speaker 4 (25:02):
Come.
Speaker 8 (25:03):
The precious metals markets have all been very active this year, well,
for very different reasons. The gold obviously, you know, and
all the time I've been watching gold and analyzing it,
the same twelve or fifteen factors drive it year after year.
The trick in analyzing it and trying to get an
(25:24):
idea where the price might go is to which of
those factors is dominant and which is recessive right now?
And for this year it's been geopolitics and last year
as well, and it's been quite a long time since
that was in the driver's.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Seat in central banks are still buying at the margin.
Speaker 8 (25:41):
Oh absolutely, that's the second issue too. I mean I
have no doubt that we would not be up here
if it went for a central bank buying.
Speaker 4 (25:49):
Now I'm going to get this thing because I think
it's so important.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
If I look at tell you'red Colorado and the Liberty
Bell Mine, which is gold and silver, and it's like,
you know, the unsinkable Miley Brown is like eighteen nine,
they shut.
Speaker 4 (26:01):
It down in nineteen twenty one.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
Is there still gold or silver out there? When Gura
goes out to Teller Ride.
Speaker 8 (26:07):
Well, I don't know about that specific mine. But there's
one of the problems with gold. You know they talk
about peak oil. Well, I can tell you there's no
such thing as peak oil, but there is peak gold. Interesting,
we've been looking for gold for five thousand years. We've
only been looking for oil for one hundred and fifty
odd years. And the ore grade is dropping, it's getting
(26:28):
more difficult. We haven't had a mega discovery since nineteen nine.
That's twenty million ounces or more since nineteen ninety seven.
So there's no shortage of gold, and I don't mean
to give the impression that there is. And mine supply
is going up because it's very profitable to produce gold
right now. But we do see later in the decade,
we see the gold production from the mining side beginning
(26:52):
to plateau. And top out.
Speaker 5 (26:54):
Let me go back to the central bank issue. And
I keep thinking about this Leslie Hook piece in the
Financial Times from a few weeks back, and the thrust
of that was you have central banks really scaling up
their purchases of gold all the while the forecast seems
to be they're going to be paring down how many
dollars they have on hand. What does that phenomenon tell
you or say just about the state of the world today.
Speaker 8 (27:16):
Well, that brings in the d dollarization argument, and which
we think is gradual. We're not in the dollar, the
dollar will cease to be the world reserve currency count
at all for many reasons. According to our effects research team,
the dollar will remain the world reserve currency. But perhaps
(27:37):
every central bank doesn't need quite as many dollars as
it has. And if it decides on a portfolio basis
to readjust things, but is reluctant to go into another
specific currency, which many of them appear to be, then
gold is a marvelous way of slightly dewaighting your dollar
holdings without committing yourself to something like the euro, the yen,
(27:58):
or another fixed income instrument that you might not want
to own. So it's it's a perfect sweet spot. And
when you see geopolitical risks, I mean when you look
at the central banks that are buying, they tend to
be near neighbors that they may or may not have
issues with. They don't tend to keep the gold in
(28:21):
that country, see, they tend to come elsewhere.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
James Steele with us on your community crascination near June thirty.
Here we reset for the second half of twenty twenty five,
even looking into twenty twenty six, which I find hard
to believe. Futures up twelve up twenty two earlier, give
back a little bit, but we'll see how the market
opens here in twenty three minutes of sixteen point at two.
Speaker 4 (28:43):
Four James Steele. Are central banks supposed to own gold?
I mean they have a.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Societal policy to manage inflation and the mandates differ or
the jobs market. Everyone new Zealand's different than America.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
I get that. But where does it say they're supposed
to have Fort Knox.
Speaker 8 (29:01):
Well, they've always had gold. Gold was the original some
when central banks originated, going back to the Bank of France,
the Battle the America, they were all founded on their
gold reserves and in fact, it's only been relative.
Speaker 4 (29:16):
You you, you, you could.
Speaker 8 (29:16):
Almost ask that the currency as we know it now
is relatively new compared to their to their gold holdings.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
Are their gold holdings now equivalent to what they held
in the nineteen thirties.
Speaker 8 (29:28):
Well, as far as the actual tonnage goes, they're they're, they're, they're,
they're they're greater, but as a percentage of their reserves
much smaller, because we've gotten a lot more currency since
since since then.
Speaker 5 (29:44):
You bring up to your politics, and you know, I
take that to mean what's been happening in the Middle East,
all of the upheaval that we've seen, the fighting and upheaval.
How much does the current trade picture, the tariff's picture,
affect the appetite for goldens to what we're seeing in
the market more broadly.
Speaker 8 (30:00):
Well, it's been a positive for the gold market for
many reasons. It feeds into the geopolitical argument as well.
Tariffs are arguably disruptive to capital markets, credit spreads, They
can ultimately have an effect on equities. All of these
things increase on certainty, and that's good for gold.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
You know.
Speaker 8 (30:23):
It's not so much that gold reacts to good economic
policy or about economic policy, although obviously it does, but
it really reacts to his uncertainty. And if you look
at the economic policy on uncertainty index, and we've done
a lot of statistical work on this, the correlation's quite
quite good.
Speaker 4 (30:40):
Where is gold now in the luxury space?
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I mean, you know, we meant in a win tour
is finally retiring from Vogue US after a stellar, magical
adjustment in jewelry and fashion and all that.
Speaker 4 (30:54):
Is in booming now.
Speaker 8 (30:57):
Well, at the high end, it's always good because of
the income that's allowed to support it, but jewelry demand
itself is down double digit. The you don't forget seventy
percent of a physical fifty percent of all physical gold
demand is in jewelry and silly, yes, yes, half of it.
(31:19):
And I'm not talking about you know, hedge funds and
portfolio managers. I'm trying the price millions. It does. But
the difference is that on the institution, on the investment level,
relatively few players move in and out, and they move
a lot of buoyant so they can appear to dictate
the price on a daily level, whereas millions of people
buy and sell gold, and very fractional small amounts every
(31:41):
day around the world, and it can take many months
for that to feed in.
Speaker 2 (31:45):
David, let's go to our expert on this, joining US
Weekend Gold expert Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 4 (31:52):
Can you buy gold at costco?
Speaker 9 (31:53):
You can buy the bars and you can buy it
like jewelry and stuff too.
Speaker 4 (31:57):
Okay, David, One more for James Steel.
Speaker 5 (31:59):
Talk at the beginning, mixing up palladium and platinum. What's
another metal that we should be paying attention to here
aside from gold to where have you seen an interesting
story merging so far?
Speaker 8 (32:09):
It's sorry, it didn't mean to cut you off there.
So far it's been platinum, and part of that is
the jewelry story, a platinum jewelry, but gold jewelry has
gotten very expensive, very expensive indeed, and in price sensitive economies,
notably China, there's been there is an ongoing switch now
back to platinum. And when you compare the size of
(32:32):
the markets, I mean they're much smaller. Platinum is much
smaller than gold, and the supply of it is rather tight.
Most of it comes from South Africa, but also Zimbabwe
and Russia, and none of them are in a particularly
good state to increase output. So the stocks are much
lower and the sensitivity to prices higher.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Thank you for this brief. James Steele with us, so
they just be seen. Just love having your moon.
Speaker 1 (32:59):
This is the Bloomber Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android
Atto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Let's get you at the newspapers, Lisa Matteo before she
jets to Venice, what are you doing?
Speaker 6 (33:20):
All right?
Speaker 9 (33:21):
So we've heard about the Trump administration's battle with Harvard, right, David,
You've reported on a number of times now. The New
York Times is saying the Trump administration putting the pressure
on the president of the University of Virginia to step down.
They're currently investigating the school for the DEI efforts. The
DOJ is saying that they want that president to step down,
and The New York Times is saying that's what's making
(33:42):
this different than all the other battles that they've done,
because this is the first time the administration has pushed
a university to remove its leader. He's been the president
there since twenty eighteen, so this is a big move
for that. With all the talks we're having courts.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I mean, forget about whatever the name of the school is.
Doesn't judiciary just show up at some point.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
Well, we've seen that in the case of Harvard over
these last few weeks, sort of allowing Harvard to continue
to allow international students and for example. But I think
that's so fascinating about this story by Michael Schmid of
The Times, is just the power that's being exercised on
this public state university. As you say, at least bring
up the fact that they're trying to get this this
leader out who'd been at Harvard. By the way, he'd
been the i think the dean of the education school
(34:23):
at Harvard before this. So we'll see where this goes.
But sort of you see rationing up here, the administration's
kind of device that's putting on these.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
Yeah, a wonderful conversation with an executive of a college
the other day, it doesn't matter where they are, and
we both agreed. It's a world turned upside down for
all sorts of reasons. Post COVID there's a fewer kids now,
you know, just the normal grinding of education is tough
right now.
Speaker 5 (34:48):
Yeah, and everyone's sort of worried about where all this is.
Speaker 4 (34:51):
This has headed. Don't have to see Lisa next please.
Speaker 9 (34:53):
Okay, I'm about to do for a Costco run and
I have to prepare the budget because usually drop about
five hundred dollars.
Speaker 5 (34:58):
Every time you go.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
She's got full freezers.
Speaker 5 (35:01):
I see, Yeah, she.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
Turns your freezers on in the garage yeast. But here's
why I thought.
Speaker 9 (35:11):
That's why I thought this story was interesting. Okay, it's
on the terminal sources telling Blue Werk that Target is
looking into the sale of more products in larger quantity.
So they want to start doing the bulk items on
their website because I say, it's going to provide greater
value like coffee and snacks and things like that, because
they want to compete with Costco but also Walmart. But
(35:33):
so you can get the bulk without the you're staring
at home.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
And regret that you bought paper plates for two thoy
thirty When you're by ball, do you stare at it
and go that was dumb? No.
Speaker 9 (35:46):
The only time I do is produce when it goes
bad and I get really mad.
Speaker 5 (35:50):
Costco have produce, they do, and they have great produce.
Speaker 9 (35:52):
So yes, that's the only time I get mad.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
Old foods is if you can get avocados they have
them star Yeah, if they have them, Yes, and aren't
riper overdone?
Speaker 4 (36:02):
Costco's killing it. I mean, I mean on the shareholder returned,
it's amazing.
Speaker 9 (36:08):
I'm telling you, I was onto something a long time ago.
Speaker 5 (36:11):
Next, you got your tassel from the Gritty Palace. She's
going to get the gold membership card from Costco.
Speaker 4 (36:18):
Sixteen dollars at night. Next.
Speaker 9 (36:20):
All right, so we go from Target to the elite
world of private jets. Okay, so celebrities, business owners love them.
But you've always heard about the environmental impact, remember the
stories with the Super Bowl and all that. Okay, so
Washington Post, yes, Davos too. They pointed to this report
and highlights that globally, private jets admitted up to nineteen
and a half million metric tons of greenhouse gases in
(36:42):
twenty twenty three. And here's what's interesting. That year private
jets they polluted more than the total of all commercial
flights that were departing from London's Heathrow Airport. So that
is huge and the US is ranking high.
Speaker 4 (36:55):
Yeah, as far as.
Speaker 5 (36:56):
This here, that's an exercise more discretion in terms of
your use of the US.
Speaker 4 (37:01):
You don't have it.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
I went back and forth with Bramo last night, and
you know, we're looking at the Dessau but it's not
the one Taylor Swift has.
Speaker 4 (37:07):
It's a cheaper one. Yeah, and we're staying with Golf.
Speaker 5 (37:10):
Street We've always which I think is smart.
Speaker 4 (37:12):
Yeah, yeah, we do. And we didn't. We didn't price up.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
I said to Micah said, I'm just not getting the
G six and the and the answer is the engine
pollution is a big deal.
Speaker 5 (37:21):
It is.
Speaker 9 (37:21):
It is that to the wedding defense, you can't.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
But Sweetey took the Sikorski.
Speaker 5 (37:28):
He had to get out there fast and Janeec couldn't
get a seat. He had to take the taxi.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Lisa Mateo, the newspapers, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot com,
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You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(37:56):
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com