Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jack Devine & Michael Darda

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Jack Devine & Michael Darda.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
A single best idea quickly on a FED day. That's
the way we roll, and we say thank you for listening.
A great set of guests today, great set of conversations.
I love what Greg Villier said in his research note,
these are confusing times. This issue, the next issue that
went on from that, just a confusion on this FED day.

(00:36):
It would be good to speak to people with decades
of authority. Jack Divine joined the CIA in his first
mission in nineteen seventy one was Santiago, Chile. Just extraordinary
breadth of career and we were honored to have Jack
Divine of the ARC and Group the Console on Foreign
Relations on today on our CIA College of Iran. Here

(01:02):
is Jack Divine on the nuclear threat.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
This is a controversial issue today because Tulca Gabbertt went,
you know, in March, went down the hill and said
that the Iranians did not have a nuclear weapon and
it was three years before they could deliver it. And
that was raised with President Trump yesterday and he said
he's really not counting on that information. And so therefore

(01:27):
I think there is a disconnect, and I guess I
would have a cautionary note for political leaders, and that is,
if you have a choice between the intelligence community that
says we're going to give you nothing about the truth,
and you have political leaders and other countries who have
a vested interest in presenting facts in a particular way,

(01:48):
I would recommend you stick close to those intelligence estimates.
So having said that, there are subset issues in this
that I could touch on, which is, for example, we
have to be careful and defense of how his presentation
of the situation that's not underestimated. You cannot get this

(02:08):
wrong and say that it's not it's not a dangerous
situation decades.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Thet's CIA Jack Divine of the ARC group on a
FED day, always wonderful to talk to Michael Data synthesizing
his economics at roth over into a stock market called.
Didn't talk much about the stock market today with mister Darta.
Michael Darta here on the FED and the challenges forward.

Speaker 4 (02:34):
I'll have to say, I mean, I was quite skeptical
of this whole AI revolution. I thought it was a
bit overhyped and overbaked. But I've kind of changed my
view on that. And this is just anecdotal, but just
through personal use of these AI interfaces. I mean there
has been a vast and breath taking improvement in what

(02:55):
this technology can do. You know, whether we're dealing with
health wellness from a personal perspective or your favorite macroeconomic modeling.
I mean, it's it's like having fifty research assistants at
your disposal and you don't even have to be nice
to them.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
So Paul asked a question of Michael Darta, And what
you don't see is when I'm talking, Paul Sweeney's doing
research to move forward the program. When Paul's talking, I'm
doing research. So Paul asked Dart a question, and I
typed in Google Gemini and I went to a Blenchard
con paper of a zillion years ago on linear rational algebra,

(03:39):
very very academic PhD. And there was all laid out,
including DSGE, which is what Richard Clare has acclaimed for
the vice chairman, who will join us today on the
FED show. I'm with data using AI. It's sobering. We're
out across the nation. This podcast on Apple, on Spotify,

(04:02):
and on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea