Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Sam Stovall & Alicia Levine

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Sam Stovall & Alicia Levine.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A single best idea
and the single best idea over twenty years ago was
some people trusted me to generate conversations and to generate

(00:26):
longer conversations and the media a typical American conversation. It's
very difficult for Europeans, where there's a much longer conversation.
But it was three four minutes. Anything over for zero
zero was sacrilegi. I mean, you can't do that. Nobody
can go longer. And a major shout out to people
like don Imus Howard Stern, A major shout out to

(00:50):
Charlie Rose, who had the courage to develop longer conversations
from a time ago. Today was one of those magical
we're back to back. We had Alicia Levigne, but first Robert,
excuse me, look at me. Robert Stovall, his father, Sam Stovall,
his son. I believe Sam Stovall showed up curious Sam Stovall.

(01:15):
On Clint Eastwood.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
I got the best bit of investment advice from Clint
Eastwood when he was playing Dirty Harry in the movie
Magnum Force. A man's got to know his limitations and
basically emotions tend to be an investor's worst enemy, and
so extracting your emotions and using declines in the market,
using technical analysis to see how far the decline is

(01:39):
likely to go, etc. Can then help you to buy
on the dips, also realizing, as I mentioned, it takes
only about four months on average to get back to
break even from declines of up to twenty percent. By
the time you freaked out your financial advisor to lighten
up on your equity exposure, the market's probably already on
its way back to break even, and on average the

(02:01):
market gains an additional ten percent after the conclusion of
a correction or a decline of up to twenty percent
runs it.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
That's all I can say what he just said there,
which is all the heritage of a Stoveall family, what
happens at CFRA and goes back to the research of
John Murphy and Ed Heyman and the rest. To use
technical analysis to figure out where you are within the
fear is the number one use of the lines that

(02:32):
charts the exes and the o Sam Stovall there classic.
Then we got better. Alicia Levine showed up with their
prodigious mathematics from B and Y let's listen.

Speaker 3 (02:44):
It's hard for me to see us getting to three
percent growth, right. What you had in the eighties was
three percent growth. So that's really what you need for
nominal earnings, right, because earnings are nominal and growth is nominal.
The thing here is, I just think what everybody's missing
is the resiliency of corporate America and the resiliency of households.

(03:06):
Of households, I have a chart that I use which
shows the crushing of the household's balance sheet of debt
to assets. It is a crushing from fifteen years ago
of the global financial crisis. It's basically been cut in half.
Households are so resilient and there are fifty three trillion

(03:27):
dollars wealthier than they were five years ago. So your assets,
your financial assets, are going higher and your liabilities as
a percent of assets are going lower. So you've got
healthy balance sheets in the household sector. All that debt,
of course was transferred to the government. But the households
are resilient, and corporate America is resilient. Large cap are resilient,

(03:49):
less so for small cap because they've got floating right debt.
But during a place where there's much more resiliency than
the conversation we're hearing Alicia.

Speaker 1 (03:59):
Levine of BNY across the nation and your commute thank
You on Apple car Play, Android Auto Serious XM Channel
one twenty one. Older digital technology seems bigger and bigger
each and every day in the heat wave. Good Morning
ninety nine one FM in Washington, ninety two nine FM

(04:20):
in Boston, and Bloomberg eleventh forreoh. After a mayoral election
in New York, a major shout out Lauren Emaus absolutely
fabulous as our city hall correspondent on podcasts, on YouTube podcasts.
It is a single best idea