Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Audrey Childe-Freeman & Tony Crescenzi

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Audrey Childe-Freeman & Tony Crescenzi.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Best idea, which is with all the distractions, we got
through the morning, so simple as that. Just to give
you a snapshot into it. There was a point where
we had four events going on at once and everyone,
you know, should do this, do this, do this. We're
making it up as we go, as we do with
single best idea. Audichild Freeman joined us here talk about

(00:35):
what's after Chairman Powell. Weaker dollar, stronger, Euro, stronger, yen
even em doing quite well as well, Audichild Friedman and
the euro, the dollar, all of that.

Speaker 3 (00:49):
You know, euro dollar strench with the exception and we
say the you know, the German fiscal announcement has been
many dollars week of dollar driven. And what I'm saying
is that, you know, if we want euro dollar to
go to one forty, and I think it's feasible, we
kind of need a new trigger. But it's stun on Europe.

(01:09):
All of the bad news out of the US, well,
I hope so anyway, but most of that is kind
of in the price or maybe we maybe we break
one twenty, but can we go to one tea? Can
we say that? And for that to happen. Tom, I'd
like to see a trigger coming out of Europe.

Speaker 2 (01:29):
It really folds into travel for Americans. We had a
free lunch with someone say of a strong dollar week
euro advantaging our travel across the ocean, and frankly weaker
sterling as well. That's changing. It's been a what nine
percent move or so in weeker dollar you see a
double of that has already alluded to. Wow, that makes

(01:49):
the travel different. Tony Cascenzi whe there's some pemical expert
and short term paper just riveting today on what long
duration actually means. Tony Cascenzi on the American economy.

Speaker 4 (02:03):
All we have to look at is how fast can
the economy grow? How fast is it growing? And that
that suggests a growth recession, not an outright session, which
is defined as a contraction in GDP, which was seen
in the first quarter of the year. But what if
the economy grows at one percent sort of prim coup
projection in that zone and consensus for the next year
the Fed says it can grow according to the Summary

(02:25):
of Economic Projections about one point seven percent, because that's
the combination of the people and how productive they are.
Point three percent increase in people one air percent increase
in productivity. If we grow one percent, a company will say, hmm,
I can I can handle about an increase of about
two percent in a demand for goods and services. It's
only one should I slow hiring and spending. That depends

(02:48):
on the sentiment that exists at that time. They could
either say yes, I'm going to cut back, I'm really nervous,
or it's short term, don't worry about and keep the
game going.

Speaker 2 (02:56):
Tony Casi there, he said in the conversation. The seven
year is about out to what the FED can adjust,
can amend, can change. He also said that the five
year elasticity, the dynamics of the five year yield is
probably more informative than the ten year of the media,
including me, we spend time focused on that ten year maturity.

(03:20):
Tony Cscenzi brings it into five and seven years. We
are on podcasts at Apple Podcasts, Spotify as well many
others on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea